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					Sub-Regional Employment
and Skills Analysis 2010

Bournemouth, Dorset & Poole

Produced by SLIM


February 2010
Table of Contents

Table of Contents..................................................................................................................... 2 
Table of Figures ....................................................................................................................... 3 
1.  ECONOMIC CONTEXT ........................................................................................ 5 
1.1        Productivity ................................................................................................................... 5 
1.2        Employment rate .......................................................................................................... 6 
1.3        Redundancies and Vacancies .................................................................................... 10 
        1.3.1       Redundancies .................................................................................................. 10 
        1.3.2       Vacancies ......................................................................................................... 14 
2.  THE WORKFORCE ............................................................................................ 21 
2.1        Demographics ............................................................................................................ 21 
2.2        Workforce Structure ................................................................................................... 24 
        Employment by sector.................................................................................................... 24 
        2.2.1  Knowledge-Intensive Sectors ........................................................................... 27 
        2.2.2  Occupations ..................................................................................................... 29 
        2.2.3  Employment by size of business ...................................................................... 31 
        2.2.4  Working patterns and job types ........................................................................ 32 
3.  WORKLESSNESS .............................................................................................. 35 
3.1        Unemployment ........................................................................................................... 35 
3.2        Long-term Unemployment .......................................................................................... 42 
3.3        NEETS ....................................................................................................................... 50 
3.4        Economic Inactivity .................................................................................................... 54 
4.  SKILLS IN THE WORKFORCE .......................................................................... 57 
4.1        Workforce skills .......................................................................................................... 57 
        4.1.1       Level 4 and above ............................................................................................ 57 
        4.1.2       Level 3 and above ............................................................................................ 58 
        4.1.3       Level 2 and above ............................................................................................ 59 
        4.1.4       Qualifications below Level 2 ............................................................................. 60 
4.2        Participation and attainment of young people ............................................................ 61 
        4.2.1       Achievement at GCSE ..................................................................................... 61 
        4.2.2       Achievement at A level ..................................................................................... 62 
        4.2.3       Participation of 16 and 17 year olds ................................................................. 63 
        4.2.4       Attainment of Level 2 and Level 3 qualifications at 19 ..................................... 64 
4.3        Adult participation ....................................................................................................... 66 
5.  MEETING THE JOBS AND SKILLS AMBITION ................................................ 68 
5.1        Leitch Targets ............................................................................................................ 68 
        5.1.1       Baseline vs Intermediate (2011) targets ........................................................... 69 
        5.1.2       Baseline vs Full (2020) targets ......................................................................... 71 
6.  DEMAND FOR SKILLS....................................................................................... 76 
6.1         Employment by Sector Skills Council ......................................................................... 76 
7.  DEMAND FOR LABOUR - TOMORROW'S JOBS ............................................. 85 
7.1         Future employment forecasts ..................................................................................... 85 
        7.1.1          Expansion demand ........................................................................................... 85 
        7.1.2          Replacement Demand ...................................................................................... 88 



Table of Figures
Figure 1: NUTS 3 GVA per head, indexed, 1999 and 2007, UK = 100 ................................................. 5 
Figure 2: Employment Rate, Working Age Population, SW LAs, July 08 – Jun 09 ............................... 6 
Figure 3: Change in Employment Rate, SW & LA, Apr ‘07 - Mar ‘08 to Jul ‘08 - Jun ‘08 ...................... 7 
Figure 4: Employment rate for selected disadvantaged groups, LA and South West, Jul ’08 to Jun ’09
............................................................................................................................................................. 8 
Figure 5: Total Notified redundancies, JC+ District, 8/11/08 to 08/01/10 ............................................ 10 
Figure 6: Redundancies per 1000 Working Age Population, JC+ District, 8/11/08 to 08/01/10........... 11 
Figure 7: Notified redundancies, 4 week periods, Gloucestershire, 8/11/08 to 08/01/10..................... 12 
Figure 8: Notified Redundancies by sector, SW & LA, 8/11/08 to 08/01/10 ........................................ 13 
Figure 9: Notified & Unfilled Vacancies, West of England LAs, Oct ‘08 to Dec ‘09 ............................. 14 
Figure 10: Live Unfilled Vacancies, Jan to Dec 2009 as a % of Jan to Dec 2008 ............................... 15 
Figure 11: Claimants per Vacancy, Apr 2008 to Dec 2009 ................................................................. 16 
Figure 12: Vacancy levels by Sector, BDP, 2007 – 2009 (Index 2007 = 100)..................................... 17 
Figure 13: Vacancy levels by Occupation, West of England, 2007 – 2009 ......................................... 19 
Figure 14: Age structure of the working age population, BDP, 2008 to 2028 ...................................... 21 
Figure 15: Economic Activity Rate, Jul 2008 to Jun 2009 ................................................................... 23 
Figure 16: Percentage of total employment by sector (2008) ............................................................. 24 
Figure 17: Employment change by sector 2007-2008 ........................................................................ 25 
Figure 18: Definition of Knowledge Intensive Sectors......................................................................... 27 
Figure 19: Employment in knowledge intensive sectors, 2008 ........................................................... 27 
Figure 20: Percentage of all employees in knowledge-intensive sectors, 2008 .................................. 28 
Figure 21: Employment by occupation, Jul 2008 – Jun 2009.............................................................. 29 
Figure 22: Employment in higher level occupations, Jul 2008 - Jun 2009 .......................................... 30 
Figure 23: Employment by size of business, 2008.............................................................................. 31 
Figure 24: Self-employment as a % of all employment, Jul 2008 to Jun 2008 .................................... 32 
Figure 25: Part time working as a % of all employment, Jul 2008 to Jun 2008 ................................... 33 
Figure 26: Temporary employment, as a % of all employment, Jul 2008 to Jun 2009 ........................ 34 
Figure 27: LFS Unemployment & Claimant Count, Apr 2008 to Dec 2009 ......................................... 36 
Figure 28: Claimant In-flows and Off-flows, BDP, Apr 2008 to Nov 2009 ........................................... 37 
Figure 29: Total Number of Claimants, Dec 2009 ............................................................................... 39 
Figure 30: Claimant Rate, December 2009 ........................................................................................ 39 
Figure 31: Growth Claimant Count Rate, December 2008 to December 2009 ................................... 40 
Figure 32: Composition of Employment & Claimant Count, Gloucestershire, Dec 2009 ..................... 41 
Figure 33: Claimant Count by duration of claim, BDP, Apr 2008 – Dec 2009 (Indexed, April 2008 =
100) .................................................................................................................................................... 42 
Figure 34: Percentage of Claimants unemployed for six months or longer, Aug 2008 and Dec 2009 . 44 
Figure 35: Trends in long term unemployment by age, BDP, Jan 2008 – Dec 2009 ........................... 45 
Figure 36: Claimant Count by Age, BDP, Apr 2008 to Dec 2009 (Index – April 2008 = 100) .............. 47 
Figure 37: Proportion of total claimant count in each age band, BDP, Dec 2008 and Dec 2009......... 49 
Figure 38: 16-18 year old NEETs (percentage), Apr 2007 – Dec 2009............................................... 51 
Figure 39: Number and proportion of NEETs, December 2009 .......................................................... 52 
Figure 40: Change in proportion of NEETs, 2008-2009 ...................................................................... 53 
Figure 41: Economic Inactivity Rate of the Working Age Population, Jul 2008 - Jun 2009 ................. 54 
Figure 42: Composition of Inactivity, BDP, Jul 2008 - Jun 2009 ......................................................... 55 
Figure 43: Proportion of the working age population qualified to Level 4 and above, 2008 ................ 57 
Figure 44: Proportion of the working age population qualified to Level 3 and above, 2008 ................ 58 
Figure 45: Proportion of the working age population qualified to Level 2 and above, 2008 ................ 59 
Figure 46: Proportion of the working age population without a Level 2 qualification, 2008 ................. 60 



                                                                                                                                                             3
Figure 47: Percentage of 15 year olds achieving 5+ A*-C grades at GCSE, including English and
Maths, 2009 ....................................................................................................................................... 61 
Figure 48: Average points score per entry at A Level, 2009 ............................................................... 62 
Figure 49: Proportion of 16 to 17 year olds in education and training, 2007 ....................................... 63 
Figure 50: Attainment of Level 2 at age 19, 2008 ............................................................................... 64 
Figure 51: Attainment of Level 3 at age 19, 2004-2008 ...................................................................... 65 
Figure 52: Participation in HE by students from the LA, 2004/05 - 2007/08 (Index 2004/05 = 100) .... 66 
Figure 53: Proportion of adults participating in any learning in the last 12 months, 2008 (%) ............. 67 
Figure 54: Baseline position against Leitch intermediate targets 2011, BDP vs South West .............. 69 
Figure 55: Baseline position against Leitch full targets 2020, BDP vs South West ............................. 71 
Figure 56: Difference between Leitch targets and baseline, BDP vs South West and England
(percentage point shortfall) ................................................................................................................. 73 
Figure 57: Difference between Leitch targets and baseline by Local Authority (Numbers) ................. 75 
Figure 58: Employees in employment by Sector Skills Council, BDP vs SW & England, 2008 ........... 77 
Figure 59: Employees in employment (% of total), Skillsmart Retail, 2008 ......................................... 80 
Figure 60: Employees in employment (% of total), People 1st, 2008 .................................................. 81 
Figure 61: Employees in employment (% of total), Skills for Health, 2008 .......................................... 82 
Figure 62: Employees in employment (% of total), SEMTA, 2008 ...................................................... 83 
Figure 63: Employees in employment (% of total), Construction Skills, 2008 ..................................... 84 
Figure 64: Projected employment change by sector, 2007-2017 (% per annum), BDP vs South West
........................................................................................................................................................... 86 
Figure 65: Projected employment change by sector, 2007-2017 (000s), BDP.................................... 86 
Figure 66: Projected Employment change by Occupation, 2007 - 2017 (000s), BDP ......................... 87 
Figure 67: Replacement demand, expansion demand and net requirement by occupation, 2007-2017
(000s), BDP ........................................................................................................................................ 88 




Copies of all LESB sub-regional reports can be downloaded from:
http://www.swslim.org.uk/labourmarket/gap/lesbs.asp

Excel files providing access to the data behind the charts in this and the other sub-regional
reports can also be accessed from this address.




4
1.          ECONOMIC CONTEXT



1.1        Productivity

The latest productivity data at the sub-regional (NUTS3) level was released in December
2009. While this data does not provide evidence of the impact of the recession, it does
provide information about the underlying economic performance of sub-regions in the run up
to recession.

Within the Bournemouth, Dorset and Poole (BDP) area, in 1999 Gross Value Added (GVA)
per head in Bournemouth and Pool was 94% of the UK average, while in Dorset it was just
74%. By 2007 this had risen in Bournemouth and Poole to be equal to the UK’s GVA per
head. Over the same period GVA per head in Dorset dipped slightly, to 73% of the UK
average in 2007.

Figure 1: NUTS 3 GVA per head, indexed, 1999 and 2007, UK = 100
             164




      180
                   151




                                                                           1999
      160
                           142




                                                                           2007
                         134




      140
                                         107




      120
                                  104




                                                100
                                        100
                                 99




                                               94


                                                      92
                                                      91

                                                            91




      100
                                                           87

                                                                 84



                                                                      83
                                                                      83
                                                                 82




                                                                           76
                                                                           75


                                                                                  74


                                                                                       73
                                                                                  73
      80




                                                                                              64
                                                                                        63

                                                                                             58
      60

      40

      20

        0




Source: ONS Sub-regional Statistical Bulletin, Dec 2009




                                                                                                   5
1.2      Employment rate

In the year between July 2008 and June 2009, 79.4% of Poole’s working age population was
in employment, the fifth highest in the South West. The rate of 77.5% in Dorset was similar
to the regional average (77.3%), while the rate in Bournemouth (74%) was below the
regional average, but still slightly above the rate for England (73%).

Figure 2: Employment Rate, Working Age Population, SW LAs, July 08 – Jun 09

    90

    85

    80

    75

    70

    65

    60




Source: LFS / ONS




6
Looking back over the recession, Figure 3 shows that employment rates in Bournemouth
and Dorset declined slightly between the year to March 2008 and the year to June 2009, but
increased slightly in Poole. Across the South West as a whole the employment rate declined
1% over the same period.

Caution is required, due to the large confidence intervals that apply to this data.

Figure 3: Change in Employment Rate, SW & LA, Apr ‘07 - Mar ‘08 to Jul ‘08 - Jun ‘08

Bournemouth
   82.0

   80.0

   78.0

   76.0

   74.0

   72.0
                        South West
   70.0
                        Bournemouth
   68.0

   66.0
            Apr 2007‐       Jul 2007‐   Oct 2007‐      Jan 2008‐     Apr 2008‐        Jul 2008‐
            Mar 2008        Jun 2008    Sep 2008       Dec 2008      Mar 2009         Jun 2009


Dorset

   82.0
   81.0
   80.0
   79.0
   78.0
   77.0
   76.0
   75.0                 South West
   74.0
                        Dorset
   73.0
   72.0
            Apr 2007‐       Jul 2007‐   Oct 2007‐      Jan 2008‐     Apr 2008‐        Jul 2008‐
            Mar 2008        Jun 2008    Sep 2008       Dec 2008      Mar 2009         Jun 2009




                                                                                                  7
Poole

    84.0

    82.0

    80.0

    78.0

    76.0

    74.0                 South West

    72.0                 Poole


    70.0
            Apr 2007‐        Jul 2007‐       Oct 2007‐    Jan 2008‐        Apr 2008‐     Jul 2008‐
            Mar 2008         Jun 2008        Sep 2008     Dec 2008         Mar 2009      Jun 2009

Source: NOMIS / APS


Access to employment is not equal and there are groups in society who face sometimes
significant disadvantages in accessing jobs and skills. Figure 4 shows that the employment
rate in Bournemouth is below the regional average for all groups except people from ethnic
minorities (57%). In Dorset, employment rates are similar to the regional average across all
groups other than those from ethnic minorities, while in Poole employment rates are
generally higher than average, other than for young people aged 16-24 (57%) and women
(73%).

Figure 4: Employment rate for selected disadvantaged groups, LA and South West,
Jul ’08 to Jun ’09

Bournemouth

                                         Bournemouth     South West

    100%
    90%
    80%
    70%
    60%
    50%
    40%
    30%
    20%
    10%
     0%
           Working Age    16 ‐ 24        50 ‐ SPA    Women       Ethnic       Disabled   Low Skilled
                                                                Minority




8
Dorset

                                     Dorset    South West

  90%

  80%

  70%

  60%

  50%

  40%

  30%

  20%

  10%

   0%
         Working Age   16 ‐ 24   50 ‐ SPA     Women         Ethnic     Disabled   Low Skilled
                                                           Minority



Poole

                                      Poole   South West

  100%
   90%
   80%
   70%
   60%
   50%
   40%
   30%
   20%
   10%
    0%
         Working Age   16 ‐ 24   50 ‐ SPA     Women          Ethnic    Disabled   Low Skilled
                                                            Minority

Source: NOMIS / APS




                                                                                                9
1.3       Redundancies and Vacancies

1.3.1     Redundancies
In the context of the recession, it is important to consider redundancies and vacancies, as
these provide a measure of the dynamism of the labour market, i.e. the rates at which jobs
are being lost and the rate at which new jobs are being created. Trends in both can also tell
us whether the economy is recovering from recession. Unfortunately the Labour Force
Survey (LFS) data on redundancies is not reliable at the sub-regional level. We therefore
depend on data generated through employers notifying Jobcentre Plus when they intend to
make redundancies1.

Between 8th November 2008 (when data collection began) and 8th January 2010, over 3,400
redundancies were notified by employers located in the BDP area, accounting for one of the
smallest volumes of redundancies in the region, mainly due to the larger populations within
other upper tier authorities.

Figure 5: Total Notified redundancies, JC+ District, 8/11/08 to 08/01/10

        10,000 
         9,000 
         8,000 
         7,000 
         6,000 
         5,000 
         4,000 
         3,000 
         2,000 
         1,000 
            ‐




Source: Jobcentre Plus




1
  Only employers making more than 20 people redundant are legally required to notify Jobcentre Plus. Thus,
while the data provides a reasonable picture of trends over time or comparisons between geographies, it is likely
to under-state the overall volume of redundancies.


10
A more useful measure therefore is the number of redundancies per 1,000 people of working
age in each area. Under this measure, BDP is the second least severely affected sub-region,
with 8 redundancies per 1,000 people of working age.

Comparison with Swindon (29 redundancies per 1,000 people) and the South West (12
redundancies per 1000 people) shows the extent of redundancies within the region and the
relatively low level of redundancies experienced by BDP.

Figure 6: Redundancies per 1000 Working Age Population, JC+ District, 8/11/08 to
08/01/10
   35 

   30 

   25 

   20 

   15 

   10 

    5 

   ‐




Source: Jobcentre Plus




                                                                                           11
Redundancy figures are volatile and can be dramatically affected by the closure of a few
large firms or business units. However, looking back over the recession, it appears that more
redundancies were notified by BDP employers during the latter part of 2008 and also 2009.
This was followed by lower numbers of redundancies over much of 2009, punctuated by a
smaller ‘spike’ in June (Figure 7).

Figure 7: Notified redundancies, 4 week periods, Gloucestershire, 8/11/08 to 08/01/10
     800 

     700 

     600 

     500 

     400 

     300 

     200 

     100 

      ‐




Source: Jobcentre Plus




12
Looking at the industrial sectors, in the BDP area, 37% of redundancies have been made by
employers in the Manufacturing sector, somewhat higher than the 31% observed regionally.
12% of redundancies have been made by employers engaged in Finance & Insurance, a
figure one and a half times the regional average (8%). Compared to the South West
average, BDP has also seen a slightly higher proportion of redundancies in the Construction
sector and a slightly lower proportion in Accommodation & Food.

Figure 8: Notified Redundancies by sector, SW & LA, 8/11/08 to 08/01/10
                37%


  40%
          31%




  35%                                                           South  West 
  30%
                                                                Bournemouth, Dorset & Poole
  25%                           17%
  20%
                                      16%




                                                                12%
  15%
                           9%




                                                           8%



                                                                      7%
  10%
                      6%




                                            5%




                                                                                5%
                                            5%




                                                                                5%
                                                 4%




                                                                                         4%
                                                                                         3%
   5%



                                                      2%




                                                                           0%
   0%




Source: Jobcentre Plus




                                                                                              13
1.3.2        Vacancies
Before the recession the number of vacancies notified to and available through Jobcentre
Plus in the BDP area ran at around 4,000 per month. Following a sharp (albeit partially
seasonal) decline in the run up to Christmas 2008, vacancies have recovered well during
2009, prior to the usual seasonal decline in late 2009. All three local authorities in BDP have
followed a similar pattern.

Figure 9: Notified & Unfilled Vacancies, West of England LAs, Oct ‘08 to Dec ‘09

Bournemouth
     1,800
                              notified vacancies     live unfilled vacancies
     1,600

     1,400

     1,200

     1,000

      800

      600

      400

      200

        0




Dorset
     2,500
                              notified vacancies     live unfilled vacancies

     2,000



     1,500



     1,000



      500



        0




14
Poole
  2,500
                              notified vacancies     live unfilled vacancies

  2,000



  1,500



  1,000



    500



        0




Source: Jobcentre Plus


Looking across the South West over the entirety of 2008 and 2009, Figure 10 shows that the
decline in unfilled vacancies in Bournemouth and Dorset over the last year has been greater
than that seen at regional level. In the least affected area (Poole) during 2009, Live Unfilled
Vacancies were 69% of 2008 levels, compared to 68% for the South West and 63% for
England.

Figure 10: Live Unfilled Vacancies, Jan to Dec 2009 as a % of Jan to Dec 2008

  100%
   90%
   80%
   70%
   60%
   50%
   40%
   30%
   20%
   10%
    0%




Source: Jobcentre Plus




                                                                                             15
Figure 11 shows that over the course of the recession, the trend in the number of claimants
per vacancy across BDP has followed a similar pattern to that seen at regional level, and
peaking in August 2009. The number of claimants per vacancy has generally been below the
regional average across all three local authorities until the summer of 2009, when levels in
Bournemouth and Dorset exceeded the South West level.

Figure 11: Claimants per Vacancy, Apr 2008 to Dec 2009

     6.0 

                                             Bournemouth
     5.0 
                                             South West
     4.0                                     Dorset
                                             Poole
     3.0 


     2.0 


     1.0 


      ‐
                                                                                                    Dec 2008




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Dec 2009
                                                        Aug 2008



                                                                              Oct 2008




                                                                                                                                                                                            Aug 2009



                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Oct 2009
            Apr 2008




                                                                                                                                                Apr 2009
                                                                                         Nov 2008



                                                                                                               Jan 2009




                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Nov 2009
                       May 2008




                                                                   Sep 2008




                                                                                                                          Feb 2009




                                                                                                                                                           May 2009




                                                                                                                                                                                                       Sep 2009
                                  Jun 2008




                                                                                                                                                                      Jun 2009
                                             Jul 2008




                                                                                                                                     Mar 2009




                                                                                                                                                                                 Jul 2009
Source: Jobcentre Plus




16
Looking at the sectors, Figure 12 shows that contrary to wider regional and national trends,
manufacturing vacancies have actually increased over the last two years in both
Bournemouth and Poole. In Dorset, the only sector that has seen a rise in vacancies in the
last two years is the public sector.

Figure 12: Vacancy levels by Sector, BDP, 2007 – 2009 (Index 2007 = 100)

Bournemouth
 250
                         2007     2008      2009
 200


 150


 100


  50


   0




Dorset
 160
                         2007     2008      2009
 140

 120

 100

  80

  60

  40

  20

   0




                                                                                               17
Poole
     300
                         2007   2008   2009
     250


     200


     150


     100


      50


       0




Source: Jobcentre Plus




18
Figure 13 sets out the volume of vacancies available by occupational group and how these
volumes have changed over the last two years. It shows that, in Bournemouth, the largest
numbers of vacancies are for jobs in Sales and Customer Service, while Elementary
Occupations is the biggest group in Dorset and Poole. While vacancies in higher level
occupations have held up well, vacancy numbers have declined significantly across all other
occupations except Personal Services, with the exception of Elementary Occupations in
Poole.

Figure 13: Vacancy levels by Occupation, West of England, 2007 – 2009

Bournemouth
 5,000


 4,500
                        2007

 4,000                  2008

                        2009
 3,500


 3,000


 2,500


 2,000


 1,500


 1,000


  500


    0
         Managers   Professionals Associate Prof'  Admin &     Skilled Trades    Personal    Sales and    Plant and    Elementary 
                                  and Technical  Secretarial                     Services    Customer      Machine     Occupations
                                      Occ's                                                   Service     Operatives




                                                                                                                                     19
Dorset
     6,000


                            2007
     5,000
                            2008

                            2009
     4,000




     3,000




     2,000




     1,000




        0
             Managers   Professionals Associate Prof'  Admin &     Skilled Trades    Personal    Sales and    Plant and    Elementary 
                                      and Technical  Secretarial                     Services    Customer      Machine     Occupations
                                          Occ's                                                   Service     Operatives




Poole
     4,000



     3,500                  2007

                            2008
     3,000
                            2009

     2,500


     2,000



     1,500



     1,000


      500



        0
             Managers   Professionals Associate Prof'  Admin &     Skilled Trades    Personal    Sales and    Plant and    Elementary 
                                      and Technical  Secretarial                     Services    Customer      Machine     Occupations
                                          Occ's                                                   Service     Operatives



Source: Jobcentre Plus




20
2.        THE WORKFORCE



2.1       Demographics

Figure 14 illustrates the age profile of the population as it was in 2008, and how it will
probably look in 10 and 20 years time. It shows that currently, Bournemouth has a significant
younger working age population, with more than a quarter of people in their 20s (partly
influenced by the presence of large universities in the area). Dorset and Poole have higher
proportions of the labour force that are in their 40s and 50s. Around 9% are in their late
teens, with this group accounting for a slightly larger share of the labour force than those in
their 60s.

While the overall shape of the working age population is unlikely to change substantially over
the next 20 years; its profile will ‘age’, with older cohorts accounting for a larger share of the
population. By 2018 there will be significantly more workers in Dorset and Poole their 50s
and 60s than those under 30. By 2028 over one-third of the workforce will be aged 50 and
over in Poole, compared to 28% today, while in Dorset 41% will be aged 50 and over,
compared to 32% today. The relatively rapid increase in the number of people in their 60s in
the labour force is due in part to changes in government policy that will delay, from 2010, the
age at which women (and later men) can draw their state pension.

Figure 14: Age structure of the working age population, BDP, 2008 to 2028

Bournemouth

                                             2008         2018   2028
                                 28%




  30%
                           27%


                                       25%




  25%
                                                         22%


                                                                 21%
                                             21%
                                                   21%




                                                                                         19%
                                                                             18%
                                                                       18%




                                                                                   18%




  20%
                                                                                               17%




  15%
                                                                                                               11%
            9%




  10%
                      7%




                                                                                                          7%
                 7%




                                                                                                     5%




     5%


     0%
             16‐19          20‐29             30‐39               40‐49             50‐59            60‐SPA




                                                                                                                     21
Dorset

                                             2008          2018     2028




                                                                                            28%
     30%




                                                                    26%




                                                                                      25%


                                                                                                  23%
     25%




                                                                          21%
                                                                                20%




                                                                                                                   18%
                                               18%
     20%




                                                           17%
                                                     16%
                                 15%
                           15%


                                       13%
     15%




                                                                                                             12%
           10%


                      8%




     10%
                 8%




                                                                                                        7%
     5%


     0%
             16‐19           20‐29               30‐39                40‐49             50‐59            60‐SPA



Poole

                                                2008         2018   2028

     30%
                                                                    25%




                                                                                            24%
     25%                                                                              22%
                                                           21%
                                               21%




                                                                          20%
                                                                                20%
                                                     20%




                                                                                                  20%
                                 19%
                           18%


                                       17%




     20%




                                                                                                                   14%
     15%

                                                                                                             10%
           9%




     10%
                      8%
                 7%




                                                                                                        6%




     5%


     0%
             16‐19           20‐29               30‐39                40‐49             50‐59            60‐SPA

Source: 2006-based Sub-national Population Projections




22
Figure 15 shows that Poole has the highest economic activity rate in the BDP area, at 83%
in the year to June 2009. Dorset and Bournemouth are below the regional but above the
national average at 81% and 79% respectively.

Figure 15: Economic Activity Rate, Jul 2008 to Jun 2009

  90.0


  85.0


  80.0


  75.0


  70.0


  65.0




Source: APS




                                                                                            23
2.2        Workforce Structure2

Employment by sector
Employment in the West of England broadly reflects the industrial pattern seen across the
South West and England as a whole, albeit with some suggestion of local concentrations in
certain sectors. Across all three local authorities, the three largest sectors in terms of
employment are Public administration, education and health; Distribution, hotels and
restaurants; and Banking, finance and insurance. Figure 16 shows that compared with the
rest of South West:

       •   Dorset has a larger public sector, and a small financial & business services sector

       •   Bournemouth has comparatively large financial & business services as well as
           Distribution, hotels & restaurants sectors

       •   Poole has a high level of employment in manufacturing

Compared to the South West as a whole, Poole and Bournemouth in particular have a
comparatively high number of people employed in financial & business services. These
sectors are highly productive and the comparatively strong presence of this sector is one of
the factors in explaining why Bournemouth & Poole’s productivity is significantly higher than
the rest of Dorset.

Figure 16: Percentage of total employment by sector (2008)
     35%


     30%


     25%


     20%


     15%
                                                                                         Bournemouth
                                                                                         Dorset
     10%
                                                                                         Poole

      5%                                                                                 South  West
                                                                                         England
      0%




Source: Annual Business Inquiry

2
    Data for this section was provided by the Economy Module, thanks to Eleanor Field.


24
Figure 17 shows changes in sector employment between 2007 and 2008. However, since
this only depicts one year change, this pattern should not be interpreted as a trend. Due to
discontinuities in the Annual Business Inquiry (ABI) methodology, it is not possible to analyse
changes in this data over a longer period. The large confidence intervals attached to this
data, particularly in the smaller sectors3, also mean that it should be treated with care.

The data does however suggest that employment levels in the Manufacturing, Construction,
and Transport & communications have declined in the last year in Bournemouth and Dorset,
as they have in the South West and UK as a whole. Employment levels in Banking, finance
& Insurance (other than in Dorset), Distribution, hotels & restaurants and Public
Administration, education & health appear to have been relatively stable, although it should
be stressed that this data relates to the pre-recession period. Poole has fared relatively well
across all sectors in this period.

Figure 17: Employment change by sector 2007-2008

Bournemouth
     50%


     40%


     30%


     20%


     10%

                                                                                    Bournemouth
      0%
                                                                                    South West
                                                                                    England
     ‐10%


     ‐20%




3
    Such as Agriculture & Fishing and Energy & Water


                                                                                                 25
Dorset
     15%


     10%


      5%


      0%


      ‐5%

                                  Dorset
     ‐10%
                                  South West
                                  England
     ‐15%


     ‐20%




Poole
     120%


     100%


     80%


     60%


     40%

                                  Poole
     20%
                                  South West
                                  England
      0%


     ‐20%




Source: Annual Business Inquiry




26
2.2.1   Knowledge-Intensive Sectors
Knowledge-Intensive sectors (KIS) are often highlighted as particularly important sectors in
an economy. They are typically highly productive, have high levels of innovation and often
demand a highly skilled workforce. They also represent areas of potential for further growth.

In this section we use the Eurostat definition of knowledge intensive sectors to analyse
employment in the four main areas that make up the KIS:

Figure 18: Definition of Knowledge Intensive Sectors
 High-technology                  •   Manufacture of pharmaceuticals and medical, precision and
 manufacturing                        optical equipment.
                                  •   Manufacture of office machinery (including computers),
                                      televisions and communications equipment.
                                  •   Manufacture of aircraft and space craft.
 Medium high-technology           •   Manufacture of chemicals, machinery and equipment
 manufacturing                        (including electrical machinery), motor vehicles and other
                                      transport equipment.
 High-tech knowledge-intensive    •   Telecommunications, computer activities and research and
 service sectors                      development.
 Knowledge-intensive service      •   Water and air transport, financial services, property and other
 sectors (excl high- tech             business services, education, health and recreational
 knowledge intensive services)        services.

The South West ranks fifth out of the nine English regions, with 51.2% of the population
employed in KIS compared to 52.6% for England as a whole. At 56% and 55%,
Bournemouth and Poole have the fourth and fifth highest proportions KIS employment in the
South West. Dorset (48%) is the fourth lowest in the region (Figure 19).

Figure 19: Employment in knowledge intensive sectors, 2008
  70%

  60%

  50%

  40%

  30%

  20%

  10%

   0%




Source: Annual Business Inquiry




                                                                                                    27
Figure 20: Percentage of all employees in knowledge-intensive sectors, 2008
     60%



     50%



     40%

                                                                       KIS
     30%                                                               High‐tech KIS
                                                                       Medium‐high tech

     20%                                                               High‐tech



     10%



     0%
           South West   England   Bournemouth   Dorset    Poole

Source: Annual Business Inquiry


The sub-sectoral make-up of KIS in BDP is similar to that seen in England and the South
West. However, Poole has a higher than average proportion of employment in medium-high
tech manufacturing (6.8% compared to 3.9% in the South West). By contrast, Bournemouth
has the highest level of employment in knowledge intensive services (50.8% of
employment), but has almost no high-tech manufacturing employment.




28
2.2.2   Occupations
The occupational structure in the BDP area broadly maps that of the South West and
England (Figure 21). Dorset has fairly high levels of employment in managerial and
professional occupations, skilled trades and personal services. Bournemouth has a higher
level of sales & customer service occupations, while Poole has a relatively high proportion of
professionals and associate professionals, and a lower proportion of process, plant &
machine operatives, partly reflecting its concentration of medium-high technology
manufacturing employment.

Figure 21: Employment by occupation, Jul 2008 – Jun 2009
 20.0

 18.0

 16.0

 14.0

 12.0                                                                            Bournemouth
                                                                                 Dorset
 10.0
                                                                                 Poole
  8.0                                                                            South West
                                                                                 England
  6.0

  4.0

  2.0

  0.0
          1       2        3       4       5         6   7      8       9


Source: Annual Population Survey


  1     Managers and senior officials
  2     Professional occupations
  3     Associate professional & tech occupations
  4     Administrative and secretarial occupations
  5     Skilled trades occupations
  6     Personal service occupations
  7     Sales and customer service occupations
  8     Process, plant and machine operatives
  9     Elementary occupations




                                                                                              29
Looking more closely at higher level occupations, Poole is the only area that has a lower
than average proportion of workers who are employed as managers & senior officials (14%),
but has a higher proportion in professional occupations (15%). Bournemouth and Dorset
both closely mirror the regional and national averages (Figure 22).

Figure 22: Employment in higher level occupations, Jul 2008 - Jun 2009
     20%

     18%          18%




                                    16%
            16%




                              16%




                                                        15%




                                                                           15%




                                                                                                   15%
                                                                                       15%
                                                                                             15%
     16%                14%




                                                                                 14%
                                                                    13%
                                                              13%
     14%




                                            12%
                                                  12%
     12%                                                                                                 Bournemouth
     10%                                                                                                 Dorset
                                                                                                         Poole
     8%
                                                                                                         South West
     6%
                                                                                                         England
     4%

     2%

     0%
           Managers and senior            Professional occupations        Associate prof & tech 
                officials                                                     occupations

Source: Annual Population Survey




30
2.2.3   Employment by size of business
The South West has the highest proportion of employees in micro, small and medium
businesses in England and one of the lowest proportions employed by large firms. Locally
however, both Bournemouth and Poole have higher than average proportions working in
organisations with 200 or more employees (30% and 33% respectively). Dorset is clearly
more dependent on smaller employers, with a much higher proportion of employment (29%)
in micro-businesses employing less than 10 people.

Figure 23: Employment by size of business, 2008
  40%

  35%

  30%

  25%

  20%

  15%

  10%

   5%

   0%
            1‐10 employees        11‐49 employees       50‐199 employees     200 or more employees
                     Bournemouth      Dorset    Poole     South West       England

Source: Annual Business Inquiry


The high proportion of employment in SMEs in Dorset is a mixed blessing – a high turnover
of small firms can contribute to a well functioning economy and labour market through
innovation and the creation of new employment opportunities in growth areas. On the other
hand, in some circumstances a high dominance of small firms is a sign of economic stress –
indicating a lack of opportunities in large firms. In addition, large firms may be able to invest
more in their workforce, e.g. through training.




                                                                                                     31
2.2.4     Working patterns and job types
This section looks at three main areas of working patterns:

     •    Self-employment;

     •    Part-time workers;

     •    Temporary employment.

Self-employment

The South West has the highest rate of self-employment of all the English regions and
devolved administrations – 11.2% of the working age population in the South West are self-
employed, compared to the England average of 9.3% (July 2008 to June 2009).

As with many indicators, there is substantial variation between the South West sub-regions.
Rural areas such as Cornwall (15.2%), Dorset (13.9%) and Devon (13.6%) have the highest
rates of self-employment. Urban areas such as Swindon (5.5%) and Plymouth (7.1%) have
the lowest. In line with this trend, both Bournemouth (10.1%) and Poole (9.3%) have lower
than average levels of self-employment.

As with a high number of small businesses, self-employment can contribute to a dynamic
economy and labour market, however it can also indicate an economy where there are few
opportunities in larger, perhaps more productive, firms.

Figure 24: Self-employment as a % of all employment, Jul 2008 to Jun 2008
     20

     18

     16

     14

     12

     10

      8

      6

      4

      2

      0




Source: Annual Population Survey




32
Part-time working

The BDP area shows some polarity in terms of levels of part-time working. The proportion of
people who work part-time in Dorset (29.1%) is the highest in the South West, while the
proportion in Poole (22.5%) is the lowest. Bournemouth (24.3%) is in line with the average
for England as a whole (24%).

Figure 25: Part time working as a % of all employment, Jul 2008 to Jun 2008
  35

  30

  25

  20

  15

  10

   5

   0




Source: Annual Population Survey


The female part time working rate is higher than the male rate across the board – in 2007 in
the South West, 11% of men worked part time compared to 45% of women.




                                                                                           33
Temporary Work

In the year from July 2008 to June 2009, the proportion of BDP people employed on
temporary contracts was highest in Dorset (6.7%), higher than the proportion of people in
temporary work in the South West (6.1%) and across England (6.2%). By comparison, Poole
has the lowest level of temporary working in the South West, with just 4.5% of employees on
temporary contracts.

Figure 26: Temporary employment, as a % of all employment, Jul 2008 to Jun 2009

     8%

     7%

     6%

     5%

     4%

     3%

     2%

     1%

     0%




Source: Annual Population Survey




34
3.      WORKLESSNESS


In this section we consider the issue of unemployment and inactivity. We also look in more
detail at the issue of long-term unemployment and youth unemployment.


3.1     Unemployment

As with redundancies, unemployment is normally assessed using two measures - the
Claimant Count and Labour Force Survey (LFS). The Claimant Count is, as the name
suggests, a precise count of the number of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA)
benefits in any single month. LFS unemployment is derived from survey responses, based
on the number of people who state that they are actively seeking employment, but are not
actually in employment.

Normally the two measures move in concert, with the claimant count significantly below the
LFS measure due to factors such as people with savings or working partners deciding that it
is not worth their while to ‘sign on’ once their entitlement to benefits based on their National
Insurance contributions has lapsed.

Figure 27 (below) shows unemployment trends in the BDP area, the South West and
England using these two measures. The Claimant Count for Bournemouth has remained
above the level seen regionally but below that seen nationally both before and during the
recession. The rate has been consistently lower than average in Dorset, while it has been
almost identical to the regional average in Poole. Across all three local authorities it more
than doubled, peaking in mid-2009. Since then rates have dipped very slightly.

LFS data at the sub-regional level is erratic and lags4. However, the trend for BDP is similar
to that shown by the Claimant Count, showing that unemployment rose quickly in the early
stages of the recession and then stabilised, with Bournemouth being the only are with a rate
above the regional average.




4
  Technical Note: Data on the (International Labour Organisation (ILO) measure of unemployment for local
authority areas are taken from the Annual Population Survey (APS). Unfortunately, although updated quarterly,
this data is presented for the four previous quarters, which has the effect of diluting the rapid rise in
unemployment observed for the nation as a whole, based on quarter-by-quarter data from the Labour Force
Survey (LFS).

Therefore, SLIM has taken the approach of using the mid point of the year being measured in local APS data.
Therefore, with the latest local APS data covering the period from July 2008 to June 2009, the unemployment
data is taken as a measure for the three months to January 2009.


                                                                                                                35
Figure 27: LFS Unemployment & Claimant Count, Apr 2008 to Dec 2009

Bournemouth

     9

     8

     7

     6

     5

     4

     3

     2
                                        LFS   ‐ England             Claimant  ‐ England
     1                                  LFS ‐ Bournemouth           Claimant ‐ Bournemouth
                                        LFS   ‐ South West          Claimant ‐ South West
     0




Dorset

     9


     8


     7


     6


     5


     4


     3


     2
                                               LFS   ‐ England         Claimant  ‐ England
     1                                         LFS ‐ Dorset            Claimant ‐ Dorset
                                               LFS   ‐ South West      Claimant ‐ South West
     0




36
Poole

    9

    8

    7

    6

    5

    4

    3

    2
                                                                                               LFS   ‐ England                               Claimant  ‐ England                           LFS ‐ Poole
    1
                                                                                               Claimant ‐ Poole                              LFS   ‐ South West                            Claimant ‐ South West
    0




Source: Claimant Count & Labour Force Survey


Looking at patterns of claimant on-flows and off-flows (Figure 28), it is apparent that, from
May 2008 to April/May 2009, the number of new benefit claimants consistently exceeded the
number leaving, as unemployment rose across all areas. Since May 2009, the two lines have
come together, remaining at a high level with between 2,500 and 3,500 people both joining
and leaving JSA benefits each month across the West. This compares to monthly on-flows
and off-flows of less than 1,500 before the recession.

Figure 28: Claimant In-flows and Off-flows, BDP, Apr 2008 to Nov 2009

Bournemouth
   1,600


   1,400                       Bournemouth on‐flow

   1,200                       Bournemouth off‐flow


   1,000


    800


    600


    400


    200


        0
                                                                                                               Dec 08
                                                                           Aug 08


                                                                                             Oct 08




                                                                                                                                                                                       Aug 09


                                                                                                                                                                                                         Oct 09
                                       Apr 08




                                                                                                                                                   Apr 09
            Jan 08




                                                                                                      Nov 08


                                                                                                                        Jan 09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Nov 09
                     Feb 08




                                                May 08




                                                                                    Sep 08




                                                                                                                                 Feb 09




                                                                                                                                                            May 09




                                                                                                                                                                                                Sep 09
                                                         Jun 08




                                                                                                                                                                     Jun 09
                              Mar 08




                                                                  Jul 08




                                                                                                                                          Mar 09




                                                                                                                                                                              Jul 09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                           37
38
                                                                                                                               Poole
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Dorset




                                                                                                                                                 0




                                        0
                                                                                                                       1,000
                                                                                                                                                     500
                                                                                                                                                           1,000
                                                                                                                                                                   1,500
                                                                                                                                                                                      2,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                               2,500




                                            100
                                                  200
                                                        300
                                                              400
                                                                    500
                                                                          600
                                                                                700
                                                                                                800
                                                                                                              900
                              Jan 08                                                                                                   Jan 08
                              Feb 08                                                                                                   Feb 08
                              Mar 08                                                                                                   Mar 08




     Source: Claimant Count
                              Apr 08                                                                                                   Apr 08
                              May 08                                                                                                   May 08
                              Jun 08                                                                                                   Jun 08
                               Jul 08                                                                                                   Jul 08




                                                                                                       Poole on‐flow

                                                                                      Poole off‐flow
                                                                                                                                                                                              Dorset on‐flow

                                                                                                                                                                           Dorset off‐flow




                              Aug 08                                                                                                   Aug 08
                              Sep 08                                                                                                   Sep 08
                              Oct 08                                                                                                   Oct 08
                              Nov 08                                                                                                   Nov 08
                              Dec 08                                                                                                   Dec 08
                              Jan 09                                                                                                   Jan 09
                              Feb 09                                                                                                   Feb 09
                              Mar 09                                                                                                   Mar 09
                              Apr 09                                                                                                   Apr 09
                              May 09                                                                                                   May 09
                              Jun 09                                                                                                   Jun 09
                               Jul 09                                                                                                   Jul 09
                              Aug 09                                                                                                   Aug 09
                              Sep 09                                                                                                   Sep 09
                              Oct 09                                                                                                   Oct 09
                              Nov 09                                                                                                   Nov 09
Looking solely at volumes, ignoring the impact of general population sizes of different areas,
the three BDP local authorities had relatively small numbers of claimants, with Poole having
the smallest number in the South West, with just fewer than 2,300 in December 2009 (Figure
29).

Figure 29: Total Number of Claimants, Dec 2009
 12,000

 10,000

  8,000

  6,000

  4,000

  2,000

        0




Source: Claimant Count


Looking at the Unemployment Rate i.e. the number of claimants as a proportion of the
working age population, Figure 30 shows that the claimant rate in Bournemouth (3.7%) was
the joint third highest in the region, although still below the rate for England as a whole
(4.1%). The rates for Pool (%) and Dorset (%) were both lower than the South West rate of
2.9%.

Figure 30: Claimant Rate, December 2009

 5.0%
 4.5%
 4.0%
 3.5%
 3.0%
 2.5%
 2.0%
 1.5%
 1.0%
 0.5%
 0.0%




                                                                                            39
Source: Claimant Count


Figure 31 shows that the unemployment rate has increased across the BDP local authorities
between December 2008 and 2009. In Bournemouth, the increase was 1.1 percentage
points, joint second highest in the South West. The increase in Poole (0.9 percentage points)
was also higher than the regional average (0.8) but lower than the increase for England (1.1
percentage points). The rise in Dorset (0.6) was below average.

Figure 31: Growth Claimant Count Rate, December 2008 to December 2009
     1.8%
     1.6%
     1.4%
     1.2%
     1.0%
     0.8%
     0.6%
     0.4%
     0.2%
     0.0%




Source: Claimant Count


Figure 32 shows that people in lower-skilled occupations are far more likely to be JSA
claimants than those in higher-skilled occupations, across all three local authorities. While
around 10% of all employment in each area is in Elementary Occupations, people whose
usual job was in an elementary occupation made up around a quarter of claimants in
December 2009. People working as plant and machine operatives or in sales and customer
service and skilled trade occupations are also over-represented within the claimant count
across the BDP area.




40
Figure 32: Composition of Employment & Claimant Count, Gloucestershire, Dec 2009

                                                             Bournemouth                   Dorset                       Poole
                  Occupation
                                                   % Claimants    % Employment   % Claimants   % Employment   % Claimants   % Employment

Managers and Senior Officials                          5.7             15.5          7.1            17.5          8.0           13.6

Professional Occupations                               3.9             11.9          4.8            11.7          4.2           15.1

Associate Professional and Technical Occupations       7.9             14.8          7.5            13.6          8.4           14.7

Administrative and Secretarial Occupations            10.2             12.8          9.4            11.2         10.6           12.9

Skilled Trades Occupations                            14.7             12.0         15.6            14.5         16.2           12.9

Personal Service Occupations                           5.4             7.9           6.2            9.6           4.9            7.0

Sales and Customer Service occupations                18.5             8.9          14.7            6.2          13.7            8.2

Process, Plant and Machine Operatives                  8.5             5.1          10.3            5.4          10.4            5.3

Elementary Occupations                                25.0             10.9         24.3            10.1         23.3            9.4

Source: JC+ Administrative Data & LFS / NOMIS
3.2       Long-term Unemployment

Figure 33 shows relative change in claimant numbers broken down by duration of claim. A
similar pattern appears in Bournemouth, Dorset and Poole. At the outset of the recession,
from around July 2008 to February 2009, there is a steady rise in the number of new
claimants (those claiming for six months or less). By January 2009, there were between two
and two and a half times as many new claimants in all areas as there had been in April 2008.

The number of long-term claimants, those claiming for between six months and a year,
started rising much later in Bournemouth and Dorset, from October 2008 onwards. In Poole
the pattern is different. Long-term unemployment rises earlier and reaches four and half
times pre-recession levels (albeit from a lower base), compared to a threefold rise in
Bournemouth and Poole. In all areas long-term unemployment starts to fall by the mid-
summer 2009.

The pattern for very long-term (>12 months) claimants is different, falling through the early
stages of the recession and rising in the spring of 2009. While the number of people claiming
for less than a year has been in decline for the latter part of 2009, long-term unemployment
continued to grow at an accelerating rate in all areas to December 2009. This shift,
sometimes referred to as a ‘hardening’ of unemployment, is a cause for concern as long-
term unemployment leads to loss of skills and alienation from the labour market.

Figure 33: Claimant Count by duration of claim, BDP, Apr 2008 – Dec 2009 (Indexed,
April 2008 = 100)

Bournemouth
 350
                 < 6 months
 300
                 > 6 months
 250             > 1 year

 200

 150

 100

     50

      0




42
Dorset
  600
                   < 6 months
  500
                   > 6 months

  400              > 1 year


  300


  200


  100


    0




Poole
  500
                   < 6 months
  450

  400              > 6 months

  350              > 1 year
  300

  250

  200

  150

  100

   50

    0




Source: Claimant Count




                                43
Figure 34 (below) also shows that long-term unemployment (six months or over) has
become more prevalent in all local authority areas during the current recession.
Bournemouth currently has the sixth highest level of long-term unemployment in the South
West, with 30% of claimants who have been out of work for at least six months, the same as
the regional average%. Dorset and Poole are both below the regional average.

Most local authorities have seen rapid rates of growth in long-term unemployment during the
recession. In the West of England, this increase was 14 percentage points between August
2008 and December 2009 for Poole, and 12 points for Bournemouth, somewhat above the
10 percentage point increase across the South West as a whole. Only Dorset (10
percentage points) was in line with the regional level of increase.

Figure 34: Percentage of Claimants unemployed for six months or longer, Aug 2008
and Dec 2009

     40%
                                                                  Aug‐08    Dec‐09
     35%

     30%

     25%

     20%

     15%

     10%

     5%

     0%




Source: Claimant Count




44
If we look at the distribution of long-term unemployment by age, it is apparent that the
proportion of the long-term unemployed in Bournemouth and Poole who are in the 18 to 24
year old age band was growing slightly over the first year of the recession before falling back
in recent months. Dorset appears to have bucked this trend, with a falling proportion of
young people within up the long-term unemployed. However, it should be stressed that the
number of long-term unemployed is significantly higher now than pre-recession.

Figure 35: Trends in long term unemployment by age, BDP, Jan 2008 – Dec 2009
Bournemouth
 80%


 70%


 60%


 50%
                                                                       Aged 18‐24
 40%                                                                   Aged 25‐49
                                                                       Aged 50+
 30%


 20%


 10%


  0%




                                                                                             45
Dorset
 70%


 60%


 50%


 40%                     Aged 18‐24
                         Aged 25‐49
 30%                     Aged 50+


 20%


 10%


     0%




Poole
 70%


 60%


 50%


 40%                     Aged 18‐24
                         Aged 25‐49
 30%                     Aged 50+


 20%


 10%


     0%




Source: Claimant Count




46
Looking at the Claimant Count, we see that growth-rates during the recession in
Bournemouth have been fairly similar for all age groups. The rate for 18-24 years olds has
increased faster in Dorset compared to other age groups, while in Poole unemployment has
grown fastest among the 25-49 age group (Figure 36). The Claimant Count rate for 18 to 24
year olds declined across all areas between April and June 2009, before rising again in July
and August, a seasonal pattern related to young people taking time to find work after leaving
education.

Figure 36: Claimant Count by Age, BDP, Apr 2008 to Dec 2009 (Index – April 2008 =
100)

Bournemouth

  300 


  250 


  200 


  150 

                                                                   Total
  100 
                                                                   18‐24
                                                                   25‐49
   50 
                                                                   50 & over

    ‐




Dorset

  400 

  350 

  300 

  250 

  200 

                                                                   Total
  150 
                                                                   18‐24
  100 
                                                                   25‐49
   50                                                              50 & over

    ‐




                                                                                           47
Poole

     350 


     300 


     250 


     200 


     150 
                         Total

     100                 18‐24
                         25‐49
      50                 50 & over

      ‐




Source: Claimant Count




48
The breakdown of claimants by age band shown in Figure 37 below tells a similar story.
Generally, the proportion of all claimants aged 17-19 or 20-24 was higher in December 2008,
compared to December 2009. The only exception to this was in Poole, where the proportion
of claimants aged 20-24 rose from 16.5% in 2008 to 17.1% in 2009.

Between 2008 and 2009, the proportion of claimants aged over 50 has increased across all
local authorities.

Figure 37: Proportion of total claimant count in each age band, BDP, Dec 2008 and
Dec 2009

Bournemouth
 20.0
                           17.6




                                                                                       Dec‐08
 18.0
                       16.2




                                                                                       Dec‐09
                                     15.0




 16.0
                                            12.6




 14.0

                                                             12.4
                                                             12.2




                                                                         11.2
 12.0
                                                    10.5




                                                                                 10.4
                                                                       10.3



                                                                                 10.2
                                                   10.1




 10.0




                                                                                              8.8
         8.7
         8.5




                                                                                           8.0




                                                                                                           8.0
  8.0




                                                                                                     6.7
  6.0

  4.0




                                                                                                                  1.5
                                                                                                                 1.2
  2.0

  0.0
         Aged          Aged          Aged          Aged      Aged      Aged      Aged      Aged      Aged    Aged   > 
         17‐19         20‐24         25‐29         30‐34     35‐39     40‐44     45‐49     50‐54     55‐59     60


Dorset
 25.0
                                                                                       Dec‐08
                       19.9




                                                                                       Dec‐09
 20.0
                              18.0




 15.0
         12.9




                                      12.5
                                     12.2
                11.0




                                                                                    10.9
                                                                         9.7


                                                                                 9.7




                                                                                             9.5



                                                                                                       9.5
                                                              9.3
                                                             9.0



                                                                       8.9




 10.0
                                                                                                     8.6
                                                                                           8.5
                                                   8.1
                                                   8.0




  5.0
                                                                                                                 2.0
                                                                                                                 1.8




  0.0
         Aged          Aged          Aged          Aged      Aged      Aged      Aged      Aged      Aged    Aged   > 
         17‐19         20‐24         25‐29         30‐34     35‐39     40‐44     45‐49     50‐54     55‐59     60




                                                                                                                         49
Poole




                           17.1
     18.0




                          16.5
                                                                                  Dec‐08
     16.0
                                                                                  Dec‐09
     14.0




                                        12.4




                                                                               12.1
                                                                     12.0



                                                                             11.4
                                    11.2




                                                                   11.2
     12.0
             10.3




                                                 9.8


                                                          9.8
                                                         9.6




                                                                                        9.4
                    9.3




                                               9.1
     10.0




                                                                                       9.0



                                                                                                 8.1
                                                                                                 8.1
      8.0

      6.0

      4.0




                                                                                                             2.1
                                                                                                           1.4
      2.0

      0.0
            Aged          Aged      Aged       Aged      Aged      Aged      Aged      Aged      Aged    Aged   > 
            17‐19         20‐24     25‐29      30‐34     35‐39     40‐44     45‐49     50‐54     55‐59     60

Source: Claimant Count


3.3         NEETS

The ability of young people to make a successful transition from school to Further Education,
employment or training has been identified as being a crucial safeguard against social
exclusion in later life. In recognition of this, the Department for Children, Schools and
Families (DCSF) has a PSA target to reduce the proportion of NEET 16 to 18 year olds by
two percentage points, from 9.6% in 2004 to 7.6% by 2010.

The characteristics of NEET children are described in the DCSF publication, Youth Cohort
Study & Longitudinal Study of Young People in England: The Activities and Experiences of
16 years olds (England 2007). The results show that more than one-third (36%) of 16 year
old respondents who had left school with no qualifications were NEET (compared with 2% of
those who achieved at least five GCSE grades A*- C), as were just over a quarter (27%) of
persistent truants. Children from families where the head of household (HOH) worked in
lower supervisory, routine or (especially) other/not classified occupations, or where the HOH
had low or no qualifications, were also much more likely to be NEET. Personal
characteristics appear less important: white respondents were more likely to be NEET than
those from other ethnic backgrounds and those with a disability were almost twice as likely to
be NEET as those without an impairment (15%, compared to 8%).




50
Regional and Local Authority estimates of the NEET population are derived from the Client
Caseload Information system (CCIS) maintained by the Connexions Service and are not
directly comparable to those obtained from the SFR or the LFS.

According to this source, 6.6% of young people aged 16 to 18 year olds in Bournemouth
known to Connexions were NEET in December 2009. This is higher than the South West
average (5.6%) but below the average for England as a whole (7.7%). Dorset’s NEET level
is generally below the regional and national averages, although it has risen above this
average in recent months, while Poole’s rate appears to fluctuate more than other areas.
Over the last two and a half years, the West of England has generally followed the wider
regional and national trend (see Figure 38), in that current levels show little difference to
those of two years ago.

Figure 38: 16-18 year old NEETs (percentage), Apr 2007 – Dec 2009
 12.0%


 10.0%


  8.0%


  6.0%


  4.0%


  2.0%                  ENGLAND            SOUTH WEST         Bournemouth
                        Dorset             Poole

  0.0%
         Apr 07




         Apr 08
         May 07




         Sep 07

         Nov 07

          Jan 08
         Feb 08


         May 08




         Sep 08

         Nov 08

          Jan 09
         Feb 09

         May 09




         Sep 09

         Nov 09
          Jun 07
           Jul 07




          Jun 08
           Jul 08




          Jun 09
           Jul 09
         Dec 07


         Mar 08




         Dec 08


         Mar 09




         Dec 09
         Aug 07

         Oct 07




         Aug 08

         Oct 08




         Aug 09

         Oct 09




Source: NCCIS




                                                                                                51
Compared to other English regions, the South West is noteworthy for its combination of low
volume and proportion of young people categorised as NEET.

LSC analysis has suggested that Poole (along with North Somerset, Bath & North East
Somerset, South Gloucestershire and Torbay) form a group of relatively small unitary
authorities characterised by small volumes and low- to medium proportions of NEETs
(Figure 39).

Bournemouth (along with Bristol, Swindon and Plymouth) forms part of a group of urban
centres with varying volumes and relatively large proportions of NEETs. Dorset (along with
Gloucestershire, Devon, Cornwall, Wiltshire, and Somerset) forms a group of counties with
relatively large volumes and small proportions of NEETs.

Figure 39: Number and proportion of NEETs, December 2009
     1,400 


     1,200 
                                              Devon 

     1,000                                      Cornwall 
                       Gloucestershire           Wiltshire Dorset      Bristol 
      800 
                                   Somerset
                                                                Plymouth 
      600 
                                                                                  Swindon

      400                        South Glos
                                                            Bournemouth
              N. Somerset                     Poole
      200                      BANES
                   Torbay 
         0 
          3.0%          4.0%           5.0%     6.0%         7.0%         8.0%         9.0%

Source: NCCIS




52
In the year to December 2009, the proportion of NEETs has increased in Dorset by 1.3
percentage points from 6.0% to 7.3% of 16-18 year olds, the second highest rise in the
region. This was the one of only five South West local authority areas to experience an
increase, in contrast to the regional and national averages, which fell in the same period
(Figure 40). Bournemouth and Poole both experienced a larger than average fall, of 0.9 and
1.2 percentage points respectively.

Figure 40: Change in proportion of NEETs, 2008-2009
  2.0%


  1.5%



                                                                 North Somerset 
  1.0%




                                                                                                                                  Bournemouth
                                                                                   SOUTH WEST

                                                                                                South Glos




                                                                                                                                                ENGLAND




                                                                                                                                                                                                   Plymouth 
                                                                                                             Cornwall 




                                                                                                                                                                  Wiltshire




                                                                                                                                                                                         Torbay 
  0.5%




                                                                                                                         Devon 




                                                                                                                                                                              Bristol 
                                                                                                                                                          Poole
  0.0%
                            Gloucestershire




                                                         BANES
         Swindon




                                              Somerset
                   Dorset




 ‐0.5%


 ‐1.0%


 ‐1.5%


 ‐2.0%
Source: NCCIS




                                                                                                                                                                                                               53
3.4         Economic Inactivity

Economic inactivity in the South West had been showing a gradual decline until the start of
2009, including during the first quarter of the recession, but has risen rapidly since. In the
BDP area, all three local authorities have inactivity rates lower than the national average. Of
the three authorities, Bournemouth has the highest inactivity rate (20.6%) in the period
covering July 2008 to June 2009 (Figure 41).

Figure 41: Economic Inactivity Rate of the Working Age Population, Jul 2008 - Jun
2009
     30.0


     25.0


     20.0


     15.0


     10.0


      5.0


      0.0




Source: Annual Population Survey




54
Figure 42 shows the composition of inactivity in the West of England from July 2008 to June
2009. It shows a similar pattern across each local authority area, in that around three-
quarters of inactive people locally do not want a job. Of those who want a job, the largest
groups are generally people who are long-term sick or are looking after family/home.

Figure 42: Composition of Inactivity, BDP, Jul 2008 - Jun 2009

Bournemouth
                              700
                        600
                1,100

     1,100                                                        Do not want a job
        0
                                                                  Seeking work but unavailable


                                                                  Long‐term sick


                                                                  Looking after family / home


                                                                  Student


                                                                  Other

                                                16,100


Dorset

                        2,700
                2,000

        2,400                                                     Do not want a job


                                                                  Seeking work but unavailable

4,200                                                             Long‐term sick


                                                                  Looking after family / home
  900
                                                                  Student

                                                         28,300   Other




                                                                                                 55
Poole

                      700
               800

                                           Do not want a job
         900

                                           Seeking work but unavailable


 1,200                                     Long‐term sick


                                           Looking after family / home
     0

                                           Student


                                   9,100   Other




Source: Annual Population Survey




56
4.         SKILLS IN THE WORKFORCE


This section is concerned principally with the characteristics of the pool of labour from which
employers must draw when addressing issues relating to vacancies, skills shortages and
other recruitment difficulties. It begins by looking at the stock of qualifications across the
working age population (the best proxy for skill levels), before going on to look at
participation and achievements by young people and adults in education and learning
activities.


4.1        Workforce skills

4.1.1      Level 4 and above
Figure 43 shows that Dorset has the best qualified workforce locally, with 29.9% of its
working age population qualified to at least Level 4, higher than both the regional and
national averages (28.3% and 28.7% respectively). Bournemouth (27.1%) and Poole
(25.3%) are both below the regional average.

Figure 43: Proportion of the working age population qualified to Level 4 and above,
2008

     40%

     35%

     30%

     25%

     20%

     15%

     10%

      5%

      0%




Source: Annual Population Survey (via Nomis)




                                                                                              57
4.1.2      Level 3 and above
As with Level 4, Dorset (50.4%) has the highest proportion locally of the working age
population qualified to at least Level 3 in 2008 (Figure 44). Bournemouth (49.4%) is
comparable with the regional average (49.5%), and above that for England as a whole
(47.4%). Poole (47.7%) has the fourth lowest proportion qualified to at least Level 3 in the
South West, but is still marginally above the national average.

Figure 44: Proportion of the working age population qualified to Level 3 and above,
2008
     60%


     50%


     40%


     30%


     20%


     10%


     0%




Source: Annual Population Survey (via Nomis)




58
4.1.3     Level 2 and above
Figure 45 shows that the BDP area is reasonably well qualified in terms of Level 2, with all
three local authorities being within +/- 2 percentage points of the regional average (71.4%)
regarding the proportion of the working age population qualified to at least this level. All three
areas perform slightly above the national average (68.6%) on this measure.

Figure 45: Proportion of the working age population qualified to Level 2 and above,
2008
    90%

    80%

    70%

    60%

    50%

    40%

    30%

    20%

    10%

        0%




Source: Annual Population Survey (via Nomis)




                                                                                                59
4.1.4      Qualifications below Level 2
Conversely, BDP also perform reasonably at national level with the proportion of working
age people that do not hold at least a Level 2 qualification, generally considered to be the
minimum for employability. Poole (30.1%) has the highest proportion locally, but is slightly
lower than the national average of 31.4%.

Figure 46: Proportion of the working age population without a Level 2 qualification,
2008

     40%

     35%

     30%

     25%

     20%

     15%

     10%

     5%

     0%




Source: Annual Population Survey (via Nomis)




60
4.2        Participation and attainment of young people

4.2.1      Achievement at GCSE
The BDP area generally performs well in terms of GCSE achievements. In 2009, 56.4% of
pupils in Poole schools achieved five or more GCSEs at grades A* - C, including Maths and
English. This is significantly higher than the regional average (51.6%) and national average
(50.4%) and is the fourth highest of the South West local authorities (see Figure 47). Dorset
(54.5%) is also well above the regional average, while Bournemouth (50.9%) is slightly
above the national average.

Figure 47: Percentage of 15 year olds achieving 5+ A*-C grades at GCSE, including
English and Maths, 2009

      90
            80
      80

      70
                 59.5 57.7
      60                   56.4 55.2 54.5
                                          53.6 51.9 51.6 51.6
                                                              50.9 50.4 49
                                                                           48.7 48.7 48.5
      50                                                                                    44.8
                                                                                                   40.1
      40

      30

      20

      10

       0




Source: DCSF




                                                                                                          61
4.2.2      Achievement at A level
BDP also performs well regarding the A Level achievements of its young people. In terms of
the average points score per A Level entry, with all three local authorities outperforming the
regional average. Bournemouth has the highest A-Level achievement score in the South
West, with an average of 223.1 points (per entry), more than 12 points above the regional
average and 15 points above the national average (see Figure 48).

Figure 48: Average points score per entry at A Level, 2009
     225

     220

     215

     210

     205

     200

     195

     190

     185




Source: DCSF




62
4.2.3   Participation of 16 and 17 year olds
In the context of low participation in the UK as a whole, data from the DCSF shows that BDP
performs poorly on this indicator, with all three local authorities having lower than average
levels of 16 to 17 year olds in education and training, compared to both the South West and
England (Figure 49). In 2007, Poole had a participation rate of just 77%, the lowest in the
South West, five percentage points below the regional average. Bournemouth (79%) and
Dorset (80%) are also in the five lowest rates in the region.

Figure 49: Proportion of 16 to 17 year olds in education and training, 2007
  90

  88

  86

  84

  82

  80

  78

  76

  74

  72

  70




Source: DCSF, SFR12/2009




                                                                                           63
4.2.4      Attainment of Level 2 and Level 3 qualifications at 19
The proportion of 19 year olds achieving a Level 2 qualification has generally increased year
on year across all areas. The highest level of achievement locally was in Poole, with 77.2%
reaching this level in 2007/08. Figure 50 also shows that Bournemouth lags around 4
percentage points behind the regional and national averages, with 72.7% achieving this
level.

The current national PSA target is to increase the proportion of young people achieving
Level 2 at age 19 to 82% by 2011.

Figure 50: Attainment of Level 2 at age 19, 2008

     78%

     76%

     74%

     72%

     70%

     68%                                                                      Bournemouth
                                                                              Dorset
     66%                                                                      Poole
                                                                              South West
     64%
                                                                              England

     62%
                2003/04         2004/05        2005/06         2006/07         2007/08

Source: DCSF, SFR 04/2009




64
The proportion of 19 year olds achieving a Level 3 qualification has also risen over the same
period, although the pattern locally is somewhat erratic. Within BDP, there is something of a
spread, with Poole being consistently above the regional average, with 53% achieving this
level in 2007/08 (Figure 51). Dorset more closely follows the wider regional average, while
Bournemouth has been consistently below average.

The current national target is to increase the proportion of young people achieving Level 3 at
age 19 to 54% by 2011.

Figure 51: Attainment of Level 3 at age 19, 2004-2008

   54%


   52%


   50%


   48%


   46%
                                                                              Bournemouth
   44%                                                                        Dorset
                                                                              Poole
   42%                                                                        South West
                                                                              England
   40%
             2003/04          2004/05          2005/06          2006/07           2007/08


Source: DCSF, SFR 04/2009




                                                                                            65
4.3        Adult participation

There is increasing emphasis on the development of skills and knowledge throughout
people’s working lives. Two important aspects of the health of the labour market are the
extent to which people go into Higher Education (HE), and also the participation of people of
working age in any learning activities (taught, non-taught learning, or both).

Figure 52 shows that, since peaking in 2005/06, falling numbers of people from both Dorset
and Poole have been going into HE, with a decline the following year in Bournemouth. The
trend appears to have affected Bournemouth and Poole to a lesser extent than the regional
average, with the total number of students still above 2004/05 levels, despite the recent fall
in overall numbers.

The fall observed in Dorset – mirrored across England - has been driven by falls in part-time
and postgraduate students as a result of changes to national policy regarding HE funding.
However, nationally, there has been consistent growth in full-time and undergraduate
participation (unfortunately there is no equivalent data available at local authority level to
measure any increase in full-time equivalents).

Figure 52: Participation in HE by students from the LA, 2004/05 - 2007/08 (Index
2004/05 = 100)
     113
     112           Bournemouth
     111           Dorset
     110
                   Poole
     109
                   South West
     108
                   England
     107
     106
     105
     104
     103
     102
     101
     100
      99
      98
                 2004/05             2005/06              2006/07               2007/08

Source: HESA
Data is based on a headcount of students




66
Data from the APS shows that at a sub-regional level, the BDP area performs relatively well
on the indicator of adults participating in learning in the last 12 months. Bournemouth had
the second highest level of participation in the South West in 2008, with 69% of the area’s
adults participating in some form of learning. Dorset (67%) and Poole (66%) were also
slightly above the regional average of 65% (Figure 53).

Figure 53: Proportion of adults5 participating in any learning in the last 12 months,
2008 (%)
        70%   69% 69%

                         68%
        68%
                               67% 67% 67%
                                              66% 66%
        66%
                                                         65% 65%
                                                                    64% 63%
        64%
                                                                              62% 62% 62%
        62%                                                                                 61%
                                                                                                  60%
        60%

        58%

        56%




Source: Annual Population Survey




5
    Adults refers to those aged 19+ who are not in full-time education


                                                                                                    67
5.        MEETING THE JOBS AND SKILLS AMBITION



5.1       Leitch Targets

The Leitch Review sets out a vision of the UK becoming a world leader in skills,
benchmarked against the upper quartile of the OECD. Stretching targets to be achieved by
2020 include:

      •   95% of adults to achieve the basic skills of functional literacy (at least Level 1) and
          functional numeracy (at least Level 3), an increase from levels of 85% for literacy and
          79% for numeracy in 2005 – equating to an additional 7.4 million achievements over
          the period. Intermediate targets for 2011 of 89% of adults with functional literacy and
          81% of adults with functional numeracy have also been set.

      •   More than 90% of adults qualified to at least a full Level 2, an increase from 69% in
          2005 – equating to an additional 5.7 million achievements over the period at a rate of
          around 450,000 attainments per annum. An intermediate target for 2011 of 79% of
          adults qualified to this level has been set.

      •   1.9 million additional full Level 3 attainments over the period, at a rate of 213,000 per
          annum. An intermediate target for 2011 of 56% of adults qualified to this level has
          been set.

      •   40% of adults qualified to Level 4 and above, up from 29% in 2005 – equating to an
          additional 5.5 million attainments over the period. An intermediate target for 2014 of
          36% of adults qualified to this level has also been set.

This section aims to establish Bournemouth, Poole and Dorset’s baseline position in relation
to these targets, and to establish the scale of the task facing the local area if these ambitious
targets are to be met.




68
5.1.1       Baseline vs Intermediate (2011) targets
Local authorities in the West of England currently do not achieve all of the intermediate
targets as set by Leitch. Based on the most recent available data, Figure 54 summarises the
current position against each target, and shows that:

All three areas are below the regional average and some way from the target level in terms
of participation in full-time education amongst those aged 16 to 18 (79% compared to 71%).
The shortfall against the target is currently 16 percentage points in Bournemouth and Dorset,
and 19 points in Poole.

All three local authority areas already exceed the target proportion of adults with literacy
skills equivalent to level 1 and in terms of the proportion of adults with numeracy skills
equivalent to entry Level 3.

The sub-region is also around the regional average in terms of adults holding qualifications
equivalent to NVQ Level 2, 3 and 4 or higher (with the exception of Level 4 in Poole, where
achievement levels are lower), meaning that the intermediate targets have not yet been
reached locally.

Figure 54: Baseline position against Leitch intermediate targets 20116, BDP vs South
West

Bournemouth

     100%
                                               90%
                                   89%




                                                                                                      Leitch Targets ‐ 2011
                                         87%
                 84%




                                                                    82%




      90%
                                                        81%
                                                              80%




                                                                                                      South West (2008)
                                                                          79%


                                                                                      71.3%




      80%
                       71%




                                                                                71%




                                                                                                      Bournemouth  (2008)
                             68%




      70%
                                                                                              56%


                                                                                                          49.4%




      60%
                                                                                                    49%




      50%
                                                                                                                  36%




      40%
                                                                                                                              27.1%
                                                                                                                        28%




      30%

      20%

      10%

       0%
             16‐18 Particip'n      L1+ Lit'cy        Entry L3+ Num'cy       % L2+               % L3+               % L4+




6
    Intermediate target for Level 4+ is for 2014


                                                                                                                                      69
Dorset




                                             93%
     100%




                                 89%
                                                                                                    Leitch Targets ‐ 2011




                                       87%
               84%




                                                                  83%
     90%




                                                      81%
                                                            80%
                                                                                                    South West (2008)




                                                                        79%


                                                                                    72.7%
     80%

                     71%




                                                                              71%
                                                                                                    Dorset (2008)


                           68%
     70%




                                                                                            56%


                                                                                                        50.4%
     60%




                                                                                                  49%
     50%




                                                                                                                36%


                                                                                                                            29.9%
     40%




                                                                                                                      28%
     30%

     20%

     10%

      0%
            16‐18 Particip'n     L1+ Lit'cy        Entry L3+ Num'cy       % L2+               % L3+               % L4+


Poole
                                             92%




     100%
                                 89%




                                                                                                    Leitch Targets ‐ 2011
                                       87%
               84%




     90%
                                                      81%


                                                                  81%
                                                            80%




                                                                                                    South West (2008)
                                                                        79%


                                                                                    69.9%




     80%
                     71%




                                                                              71%




                                                                                                    Poole (2008)
                           65%




     70%
                                                                                            56%




     60%
                                                                                                        47.7%
                                                                                                  49%




     50%
                                                                                                                36%


     40%
                                                                                                                            25.3%
                                                                                                                      28%



     30%

     20%

     10%

      0%
            16‐18 Particip'n     L1+ Lit'cy        Entry L3+ Num'cy       % L2+               % L3+               % L4+

Source: Derived from DfES Basic Skills Survey (2003), APS (2008), DCSF SFR12/2009, Leitch
(2006).




70
5.1.2    Baseline vs Full (2020) targets
Figure 55 summarises BDP’s position against the full targets, and shows that none of the
four targets have yet been reached. Figure 56 and Figure 57 show the estimated shortfall in
BDP against the targets in terms of percentage points and total volumes.

They show that, in Dorset, the target that is closest to being achieved is in relation to adult
literacy, where the shortfall is just two percentage points (around 5,900 adults). The biggest
shortfall is in relation to Level 2 qualifications (17 percentage points, or around 38,000
adults). Bournemouth is just three percentage points short of the literacy target, but 19 points
short of the Level 2 target (18,200 adults). The biggest challenge in Poole is also the Level 2
target, where there is currently a 20 point shortfall (15,900 adults).

Figure 55: Baseline position against Leitch full targets 2020, BDP vs South West

Bournemouth
              95%




                                     95%


  100%
                             90%




                                                        90%
                    87%




                                                                              Leitch Targets 2020
                                                 82%
   90%
                                           80%




                                                                      71.3%
   80%




                                                               71%
                                                                              South West (2008)
   70%
                                                                              Bournemouth (2008)
   60%

   50%




                                                                               40%
   40%




                                                                                             27.1%
                                                                                      28%
   30%

   20%

   10%

    0%
                L1+ Lit'cy         Entry L3+ Num'cy           % L2+                  % L4+




                                                                                                     71
Dorset




             95%



                            93%




                                    95%
     100%




                                                        90%
                   87%




                                                83%
     90%                                                                      Leitch Targets 2020




                                          80%




                                                                      72.7%
     80%




                                                               71%
                                                                              South West (2008)
     70%
                                                                              Dorset (2008)
     60%

     50%




                                                                              40%



                                                                                            29.9%
     40%




                                                                                     28%
     30%

     20%

     10%

      0%
               L1+ Lit'cy         Entry L3+ Num'cy            % L2+                 % L4+



Poole
             95%



                            92%




                                    95%




     100%
                                                        90%
                   87%




     90%                                                                      Leitch Targets 2020
                                                81%
                                          80%




                                                                      69.9%
     80%
                                                               71%
                                                                              South West (2008)
     70%
                                                                              Poole (2008)
     60%

     50%

     40%                                                                      40%



                                                                                            25.3%
     30%                                                                             28%

     20%

     10%

      0%
               L1+ Lit'cy         Entry L3+ Num'cy            % L2+                 % L4+


Source: Derived from DfES Basic Skills Survey (2003), APS (2008), DCSF SFR12/2009, Leitch
(2006)




72
Figure 56: Difference between Leitch targets and baseline, BDP vs South West and
England (percentage point shortfall)

Bournemouth
             16‐18                               L1+         Entry L3+
         Participation       % Level 3+       Literacy       Numeracy        % Level 2+     % Level 4+ 
         (Leitch 2011)     (Leitch 2011)   (Leitch 2020)   (Leitch 2020)   (Leitch 2020)   (Leitch 2020)
  0%



  ‐5%



 ‐10%



 ‐15%

                         England
 ‐20%                    South West
                         Bournemouth

 ‐25%


Dorset
             16‐18                               L1+         Entry L3+
         Participation       % Level 3+       Literacy       Numeracy        % Level 2+     % Level 4+ 
         (Leitch 2011)     (Leitch 2011)   (Leitch 2020)   (Leitch 2020)   (Leitch 2020)   (Leitch 2020)
  0%



  ‐5%



 ‐10%



 ‐15%

                          England
 ‐20%                     South West
                          Dorset

 ‐25%




                                                                                                           73
Poole
                16‐18                             L1+         Entry L3+
            Participation     % Level 3+       Literacy       Numeracy        % Level 2+     % Level 4+ 
            (Leitch 2011)   (Leitch 2011)   (Leitch 2020)   (Leitch 2020)   (Leitch 2020)   (Leitch 2020)
      0%



     ‐5%



     ‐10%



     ‐15%

                            England
     ‐20%                   South West
                            Poole

     ‐25%

Source: Derived from DfES Basic Skills Survey (2003), APS (2008), DCSF SFR12/2009, Leitch
(2006)




74
Figure 57: Difference between Leitch targets and baseline by Local Authority
(Numbers)
                        Intermediate Targets (2011)              Full Targets (2020)


          Area          16-18 Full-Time                 L1+      Entry L3+
                                           % L3+                              % L2+     % L4+
                         Participation                Literacy   Numeracy


South West                  18,888        200,180     265,975     479,355    572,445   359,200
Bath & NE Somerset            280          1,503       3,090      13,740      16,011    6,754
Bournemouth                   624          6,454       5,910      13,860      18,180    12,560
Bristol                       844          10,968     13,129      46,149      58,905    15,420
North Somerset                700          1,665       2,747      12,377      16,293    8,767
Plymouth                     1,144         16,352      7,038      28,428      36,823    28,098
Poole                         692          6,582       3,363      11,953      15,880    11,585
South Gloucestershire        1,028         12,814      3,790      16,930      26,573    23,265
Swindon                       616          17,398      7,385      21,415      31,106    20,177
Torbay                        640          8,177       5,154      13,524      14,301    13,302
Cornwall                     1,556         24,674     22,922      57,202      63,386    44,949
Devon                        2,492         24,532     15,054      47,284      82,830    53,080
Dorset                       2,128         12,176      4,868      26,538      37,975    22,140
Gloucestershire              2,124         16,616      7,390      34,320      52,670    25,940
Somerset                     2,336         23,738     17,838      42,043      56,656    45,525
Wiltshire                    1,700         16,630      8,503      28,673      44,807    27,570
Source: Derived from DfES Basic Skills Survey (2003), APS (2008), DCSF SFR12/2009, Leitch
(2006)




                                                                                            75
6.        DEMAND FOR SKILLS



6.1       Employment by Sector Skills Council

In 2008, just five SSCs accounted for at least 5% of total employment in England:

      •   Skillsmart Retail     10.4% of employment

      •   People 1st            7.4%

      •   Skills for Health     7.3%

      •   SEMTA                 5.2%

      •   Construction Skills   5.0%

Within BDP, Figure 58 shows that most areas have similar concentrations of employment in
these five SSCs. In addition Bournemouth also has a significant concentration of
employment in Financial Services, but lower proportions in both SEMTA and Construction
Skills. Dorset has a slightly higher than average proportion of employment in Skills for Care,
while Poole has particular concentrations in Financial Services and Skills for Care.




76
Figure 58: Employees in employment by Sector Skills Council, BDP vs SW & England,
2008

Bournemouth

               Summit Skills
           Skillsmart Retail
                        Skillset
                  SkillsActive
          Skills for Logistics
            Skills for Justice
            Skills for Health
               Skills for Care
                       Skillfast
                        SEMTA
                      Proskills
                   People 1st
                                                                                    England
      Lifelong Learning UK
                         Lantra                                                     South West
                      Improve                                                       Bournemouth
         Government Skills
                       GOskills
   Financial Services Skills
                   e‐skills UK
     Energy & Utility  Skills
  Creative & Cultural Skills
        Construction Skills
                        Cogent
          Automotive Skills
                  Asset Skills

                                   0%   2%   4%   6%   8%   10%   12%   14%   16%




                                                                                                  77
Dorset

                  Summit Skills
              Skillsmart Retail
                          Skillset
                     SkillsActive
             Skills for Logistics
              Skills for Justice
               Skills for Health
                  Skills for Care
                          Skillfast
                          SEMTA
                         Proskills
                      People 1st
                                                                           England
         Lifelong Learning UK
                           Lantra                                          South West
                        Improve                                            Dorset
            Government Skills
                         GOskills
      Financial Services Skills
                      e‐skills UK
        Energy & Utility  Skills
     Creative & Cultural Skills
            Construction Skills
                          Cogent
             Automotive Skills
                     Asset Skills

                                      0%   2%   4%   6%   8%   10%   12%




78
Poole

               Summit Skills
           Skillsmart Retail
                       Skillset
                  SkillsActive
          Skills for Logistics
           Skills for Justice
            Skills for Health
               Skills for Care
                       Skillfast
                       SEMTA
                      Proskills
                   People 1st
                                                                        England
      Lifelong Learning UK
                        Lantra                                          South West
                     Improve                                            Poole
         Government Skills
                      GOskills
   Financial Services Skills
                   e‐skills UK
     Energy & Utility  Skills
  Creative & Cultural Skills
         Construction Skills
                       Cogent
          Automotive Skills
                  Asset Skills

                                   0%   2%   4%   6%   8%   10%   12%

Source: Annual Business Inquiry, 2008




                                                                                     79
Looking specifically at the five largest SSCs (nationally) in turn shows that Bournemouth had
the highest level of retail employment in the South West in 2008 (15%, 11,200 employees -
see Figure 59), above both the regional average (11.4%) and the national average (10.4%).
Dorset (11.1%, 17,300 employees) and Poole (10.6%, 7,600) were both just below the
regional average.

Figure 59: Employees in employment (% of total), Skillsmart Retail, 2008
     16%

     14%

     12%

     10%

     8%

     6%

     4%

     2%

     0%




Source: Annual Business Inquiry, 2008




80
In 2008, 11.8% (8,900 employees) of Bournemouth’s employment was in the People 1st
footprint, which covers the hospitality, leisure, travel and tourism sectors, the second highest
in the South West (Figure 60). Dorset (8.2% - 12,700 employees) was also higher than the
regional average of 7.9% and the England average (7.4%). Poole has a below average
concentration of employment in this sector (6.3%), the fourth lowest in the region.

Figure 60: Employees in employment (% of total), People 1st, 2008

  16%

  14%

  12%

  10%

   8%

   6%

   4%

   2%

   0%




Source: Annual Business Inquiry, 2008




                                                                                              81
Employment levels in this sector tend to be higher in urban authorities, due to the presence
of the region’s larger hospitals. Figure 61 shows that 9.3% of employees in Bournemouth
(7,100 people) worked in the Skills for Health sector in 2008, the fourth highest in the South
West, higher than the regional average (7.9%) and also the national average (7.3%). Poole
(8.3% - 6,000 employees) has the sixth highest proportion in the region, while Dorset (7.5%)
is slightly below the average.

Figure 61: Employees in employment (% of total), Skills for Health, 2008

     16%

     14%

     12%

     10%

     8%

     6%

     4%

     2%

     0%




Source: Annual Business Inquiry, 2008




82
Figure 62 shows that 10.6% of employment in Poole (7,600 employees) was in the SEMTA
footprint, which covers science, engineering and manufacturing technologies. This is the
highest level in the South West, significantly higher than the averages for both the region
(6.1%) and England (5.2%), suggesting a local employment specialism, or cluster. Dorset
(7.3% - 11,400 employees) also has a higher than average concentration of SEMTA
employment, while Bournemouth (1.8% - 1,400 employees) has the lowest concentration in
the region.

Figure 62: Employees in employment (% of total), SEMTA, 2008

  12%


  10%


   8%


   6%


   4%


   2%


   0%




Source: Annual Business Inquiry, 2008




                                                                                          83
Finally, in terms of Construction Skills, Bournemouth – at just 3.2% of employment - has the
lowest level in the South West, well below the regional average of 5.0% (Figure 63). Poole
(4%) is also below the regional and national averages, while Dorset (5.6% - 8,600
employees) has the fourth highest level in the region.

Figure 63: Employees in employment (% of total), Construction Skills, 2008

     7%

     6%

     5%

     4%

     3%

     2%

     1%

     0%




Source: Annual Business Inquiry, 2008




84
7.        DEMAND FOR LABOUR - TOMORROW'S JOBS



7.1       Future employment forecasts

Determining future jobs and skills priorities requires an examination of predicted changes in
the occupations and sectors. Forecasts provide some indication about likely developments in
employment structure and patterns. Working Futures III, 2007-2017, develops its predictions
based on past trends and provides the forecasting data used by Government and other
national agencies to predict future employment and thus trends in skills. The baseline
macroeconomic forecast, on which the data projections were based, were from early 2008.
At this time economic conditions were predicted to deteriorate, but the depth and intensity of
the recession was unclear. The data is thus not generally reliable in estimating employment
change over the short term, which is likely to underestimate the impact of the recession.
However, medium to long-term trends are more reliable.

When looking at future employment, it is important to note that two distinct features are in
play:

      •   expansion demand - where new jobs are anticipated;

      •   replacement demand – which provides a more accurate picture of skills demand
          because it looks at that demand which arises due to retirement and thus which
          requires jobs and skills need to be replaced (because of retirement), even where the
          sector is not in expansion.

7.1.1     Expansion demand
Working Futures III data suggested that employment prospects for the South West are
slightly better than the national projected increase of 6.5% between 2007 and 2017. Figure
64 below shows how employment in different industry sectors in the BDP area is predicted to
change in comparison with regional predictions, while Figure 65 shows the overall change
locally in terms of total numbers in employment. It shows that growth in BDP is forecast to
slightly lag behind the region as a whole over this period, with employment expected to
increase by 0.6% per annum (22,000 jobs in total), compared to 0.7% for the South West.




                                                                                               85
This is partly driven by a smaller than average expected increase in employment in Business
& other services (including the financial sector) of 1.4% per annum (13,000 jobs) locally
compared to 1.7% regionally. Smaller than average increases are also forecast in
Construction and Distribution / Transport.

It should be noted that the forecast includes an expected increase in the BDP area of 8,000
jobs (0.9% per annum) in the non-marketed services sector, i.e. public services.

Given the current debt levels of the UK government, the three main political parties all agree
that public spending cuts need to be implemented cuts are necessary. It therefore seems
inevitable that significant cuts will impact on public sector employment levels, suggesting that
the growth forecast shown in Figure 65 is unlikely to be realised.

Figure 64: Projected employment change by sector, 2007-2017 (% per annum), BDP vs
South West


                                              All Industries

                                             Non‐marketed 
                                               services

                                         Business & other 
                                             services

                                               Distribution & 
                                                                                                     SW
                                                 transport
                                                                                                     BDP
                                               Construction


                                                                 Manufacturing

                                                                     Primary sector & 
                                                                         utilities

     ‐6.0   ‐5.0      ‐4.0    ‐3.0    ‐2.0         ‐1.0        0.0          1.0          2.0   3.0

Source: Working Futures III

Figure 65: Projected employment change by sector, 2007-2017 (000s), BDP
 Change (000s)                         2007-2017
 Primary sector & utilities                   -4
 Manufacturing                                -5
 Construction                                 1
 Distribution & transport                     7
 Business & other services                    13
 Non-marketed services                        8
 All employment                               22
Source: Working Futures III




86
As well as projections by industry, Working Futures has also produced occupational
forecasts to 2017. Over the period from 2007 to 2017, the largest projected increases in
employment for the West of England are among higher-level occupations, with the number of
corporate managers forecast to rise by 7,400 in BDP, the number of professionals by 6,700
and the number of associate professional/technical jobs by 6,100.

Large growth (6,900 jobs) is also expected in personal service occupations (Figure 66), a
group covering occupations involving the provision of a service to customers, whether in a
public protective or personal care capacity. These include occupations involving the care of
the sick and the elderly; the supervision of children; the care of animals; and the provision of
travel, personal care and hygiene services.

The biggest declines are forecast to be in administrative/secretarial occupations (4,500 jobs)
and skilled trades (3,400 jobs). The number of machine & transport operatives is also
forecast to fall, by 1,100 in BDP from 2007-2017.

Figure 66: Projected Employment change by Occupation, 2007 - 2017 (000s), BDP

                                    Elementary 
                                    Occupations
                                                          Machine and 
                                                      Transport Operatives
                              Sales & Customer 
                                Service Occ's
                              Personal Service 
                                Occupations
                                                      Skilled Trades 
                                                       Occupations
                                                      Administrative and 
                                                         Secretarial
                          Assoc. Professional 
                            and Technical
                               Professional 
                               occupations
                        Managers &  Senior 
                            Officials

  ‐6           ‐4              ‐2                 0                 2        4   6           8

Source: Working Futures III




                                                                                                 87
7.1.2      Replacement Demand
When looking at the demand for skills, it is also important to take into account the need to
replace those in the workforce who will be leaving because of retirement or other factors.
This is termed ‘replacement demand’. Outflows in terms of replacement demand typically
account for about a third or more of current employment levels over a 10 year period and
outweigh any projected employment expansion or decline.

Replacement demand occurs where there is a need to recruit and train new entrants into
jobs to replace those leaving. Where employment is projected to rise, such replacement
demand will lead to even greater requirements. ‘Replacement demand’ is defined as the
number of retirements, plus occupational mobility, plus migration. Net labour requirement is
equal to expansion demand plus replacement demand.

Net requirements are positive across all major groups. The overall requirement is skewed
towards higher-level occupations, i.e. managers and senior officials, professional and
associate professional and technical occupations, which is consistent with national trends
and the shift towards a knowledge economy. 48% of the net requirement in BDP will come
from these three occupational groups, and is a cumulative effect of both expansion and
replacement demand.

Figure 67: Replacement demand, expansion demand and net requirement by
occupation, 2007-2017 (000s), BDP


                   Elementary

                                                                               Expansion 
           Machine Operatives
                                                                               Demand

 Sales and Customer Services                                                   Replacement 
                                                                               Demand
             Personal Services
                                                                               Total 
                                                                               Requirement
                 Skilled Trades


             Adm & Secretarial


     Associate Prof & Technical


             Professional occ's


 Managers &  Senior Officials


     ‐10           ‐5             0   5        10         15         20         25            30

Source: Working Futures III




88
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