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					                                                                                                                                                         10Oct 2011

                                                                                                                              SINGAPORE EQUITY
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HOSPITALITY
Goh Han Peng
+65 6232 3893                                                               STAMFORD LAND                                                BUY                             -
hanpeng.goh@sg.oskgroup.com                                                                                                              Price                S$0.515
                                                                                                                                         Previous                        -
                                                                                                                                         Target                S$0.78

Hotels/Real Estate
                                                                            Recycling capital, unlocking value
Stamford Land owns and operates 8 luxury
hotels in Australia and New Zealand. It also                                Stamford Land (STL) is undervalued and trading at a steep discount of 56% to
owns commercial properties and undertake                                    its SOTP valuation. We like STL for: 1) its quality assets comprising prime
property development.
                                                                            commercial and hotel properties in Australia; 2) resilient earnings outlook
                                                                            underpinned by strong hospitality earnings and development profits; 3)
                                                                            management’s efforts to unlock value through capital-recycling initiatives,
Stock Profile/Statistics                                                    which should narrow the valuation gap. BUY with a TP of S$0.78, pegged to
Bloomberg Ticker                                              STL SP        30% discount to our SOTP of S$1.12/share.
STI                                                            2,668
Issued Share Capital (m)                                         864        S&L deal highlights STL’s massively undervalued hotels. STL’s hotels are sitting
Market Capitalisation (US$m)                                     445        on a surplus of S$365m over book value, or S$0.42/share, on our estimates.
52 week H | L Price (S$)                                  0.725 0.46
Average Volume (‘000)                                            350
                                                                            Management has, in the past, received numerous offers for its hotel portfolio, with
YTD Returns (%)                                                  -7%        one offer valuing its hotels at A$850m (S$1.1b). Recently, it signed an MOU for the
Net gearing (%)                                                 94%         sale and leaseback for three of its hotels: the Stamford Plaza Melbourne, Stamford
Altman Z-Score                                                    1.4       Grand Adelaide and Stamford Plaza Sydney for an indicative consideration of
ROCE/WACC                                                         0.6       A$316m. The sale price represents a 112% premium over its book value. On deal
Beta (x)                                                        0.97
                                                                            completion, STL will avail itself to cash proceeds of ~S$400m and continue to
Book Value/share (S$)                                           0.59
                                                                            manage the hotels.
Major Shareholders (%)
Ow Chio Kiat                                                        37.2%   Record earnings ahead. On the earnings front, STL is poised to deliver a record
                                                                            year for FY12, as the group completes and recognises the profits from its flagship
                                                                            Sydney residential project, the Stamford Residences and Reynell Terraces. The
                                                                            project has been 90% pre-sold and with its completion in the current quarter, STL is
Share Performance (%)                                                       on track to receive > S$200m sale proceeds. We expect its hotels to deliver steady
                                                                            earnings growth (EBITDA CAGR of 5% over FY11-13), underpinned by a resilient
Month                         Absolute                    Relative
1m                              (1.0)                       5.1             domestic corporate travel market and limited supply pipeline. Meanwhile, its recurrent
3m                             (20.8)                      (4.4)            income will be boosted by a full year’s contribution from its Perth office property.
6m                             (22.7)                      (4.7)
12m                            (10.8)                       7.6             Trading at steep discount to our SOTP valuation.STL is trading at a 54% discount
                                                                            to our SOTP valuation of $1.12. We believe this is overly steep given
                                                                            management’sability to unlock value and grow NAV through capital-recycling
6-month Share Price Performance                                             initiatives. Ascribing a 30% discount, we derive a fair value of S$0.78, implying a 52%
                                                                            upside. The counter offers a yield of 6%, with prospects for additional payouts upon a
0.65                                                                        successful asset sale, in our view.
0.60

0.55
                                                                             FYE 31 Mar (S$m)                  FY09       FY10        FY11        FY12F        FY13F
                                                                             FYE 31 Mar
                                                                             Revenue                           FY09
                                                                                                                 222      FY10
                                                                                                                             239      FY11
                                                                                                                                         251      FY12F
                                                                                                                                                     475       FY13F
                                                                                                                                                                  332
0.50
                                                                             Core EBIT                            28           37          46          93           65
0.45
                                                                             Net profit                           7.7       28.5        60.1        59.0         37.7
0.40                                                                         % chg YoY                         -82%       272%        111%          -2%         -36%
0.35                                                                         EPS (S cts)                          0.9         3.3         7.0         6.8          4.4
0.30
                                                                             DPS (S cts)                            1           2           3           3            3
                                                                             Div Yield (%)                     2.0%        4.0%        6.0%        6.0%         6.0%
0.25
                                                                             ROE (%)                           2.1%        6.3%      12.2%        11.2%         7.0%
0.20                                                                         P/E (x)                            56.5        15.2          7.2         7.3        11.5
   Mar-11   Apr-11   May-11    Jun-11   Jul-11   Jul-11   Aug-11   Sep-11

                                                                                                                                                OSK
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                                                                                                                                                DMG Research
                              KEY POINTS


                              STL’s hotel assets are carried at steep discount to market value. We estimate STL’s
                              eight hotels in Australia/New Zealand are minimally worth A$663m (S$841m, or
                              S$0.97/share) on applied cap rates of 7%, in line with the 5.8-7.6% range that the market is
                              trading. These hotels are, however, carried in the books at historical cost of only S$476m,
                              implying a S$365m surplus. In 2008, the group received an offer that valued its eight hotels
                              at A$850m (S$1.07b). A recent deal that STL inked to sell and leaseback three of its hotels,
                              at a 112% premium to book value, suggests our valuation, at 78% premium to book. is
                              conservative, leaving scope for upside surprise.

                              Why we think the valuation discount will narrow: While it is common to find property-
                              related companies trading at wide discount to their RNAVs in today’s market, we believe
                              companies with a good track record of unlocking value or have event-driven catalysts (i.e.
                              asset sale) should narrow their valuation gap vis-à-vis their peers. In STL’s case, Chairman
                              Ow Chio Kiat has a proven track record of trading assets, buying in down-cycles and selling
                              when asset prices are high. Case in point are the value creation seen at sister companies
                              Cougar Logistics and Singapore Shipping Corporation, achieved through asset monetisation
                              initiatives at cycle peaks. Shareholders in those two companies were eventually well
                              rewarded with large cash payouts. STL’s latest announcement on the sale and leaseback of
                              three of its hotels, if completed, will have a transformational impact on its balance sheet,
                              with cash proceeds of S$400m and NAV/share increasing by S$0.25/share on a pre-tax
                              basis. Potential to recycle capital into higher-return development business and possibility of
                              a special dividend are reasons why we believe the stock price should narrow the gap with its
                              intrinsic value.

                              Office property in Perth boosts group’s recurrent income. Beyond hotels, STL also
                              owns a prime office property, Dynon’s Plaza, on Hay Street, Perth. The property is
                              currently leased to Chevron Australia for a period of 10 years from April 2010, at initial rental
                              of A$9.8m with 5% annual escalation. The property provides STL with a stable yield of 7-
                              7.5% and adds to its recurrent income stream from hotel operations.

                              Development surplus of S$106m or S$0.12/share. STL has two existing development
                              projects, the Stamford Residences in Auckland (46% sold by units) and the Stamford
                              Residences and Reynell Terraces in Sydney (86% sold by units, 70% by value). It has also
                              obtained development approval to re-develop its North Ryde hotel into a 626-unit residential
                              project to maximise land value, with plot ratio raised from 1x to 2.5x. We estimate a
                              development surplus of S$106m from its residential land bank. Management is exploring
                              value-enhancement for its other hotel sites, which could drive further NAV growth.

                              Strengthened balance sheet opens up capital management initiatives. With sales
                              proceeds of S$200m following the completion of its Sydney residential project and another
                              S$400m from the potential sale of its three hotels, STL will turn net cash and be in a good
                              position to deploy capital opportunistically. We think it is also likely to raise its dividend
                              payout or pay a special dividend on completion of the sale and leaseback transaction.

                              Stock trading at a 54% discount to our SOTP of $1.12. With management’s proactive
                              initiatives to unlock value, we believe the stock should narrow its steep discount to its SOTP
                              valuation. We derive a $0.78 target price for the stock, based on a 30% discount to its SOTP
                              valuation.




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                                                                                                               DMG Research
                              VALUATION



                              Sum-of-parts valuation yields $1.12 fair value
                              We use a sum-of-parts valuation approach to value STL’s diverse property interests. The
                              main valuation driver for STL is its eight hotels in Australia/New Zealand. We use cap rates of
                              7% to value its hotels, in line with the initial yield range of 5.8-7.6% for the Australian hotel
                              sector, and derive a valuation of A$663m (S$841m). On a per key basis, this translates to a
                              valuation of A$323,000. We note that our valuation is below the A$386,000 per key implied
                              by the proposed sale and leaseback of three of its hotels, Stamford Plaza Melbourne,
                              Stamford Grand Adelaide and Stamford Plaza Sydney Airport.

                              We value Dynon’s Plaza, STL’s office property in Perth at a valuation of A$134m (S$170m)
                              on a cap yield of 7%. Dynon’s Plaza is backed by a long term lease to Chevron Australia with
                              a guaranteed income stream for 10 years, ensuing its marketability should management ever
                              decides to put the asset on the market.

                              STL’s residential landbank comprises a completed development in Auckland and Stamford
                              Residences in Sydney, which is being completed in the current quarter. Upon completion,
                              STL stands to collect over S$200m in cash proceeds from the 70% pre-sold units (by value).
                              STL has since achieved further sales for the Sydney project, bringing unit sales to the 90%
                              level and further bolstering its cash levels. We estimate a S$47m surplus from the North
                              Ryde development project based on an ASP of A$8,500 psm and breakeven of A$7000 psm.


                               Figure 1: Sum-of-parts valuation
                                                                                                 S$m                Per share (S$)
                               Hotel valuation                                                    841                         0.97

                                Dynon's Plaza (Perth)                                              170                         0.20
                                Southpoint Building (one floor)                                     23                         0.03
                               Commercial Properties                                               193                         0.22

                                 -Stamford Residences, Sydney                                    285.8                         0.33
                                 -Stamford Residences, Auckland                                   92.4                         0.11
                                 -North Ryde development surplus                                  46.6                         0.05
                               Residential portfolio                                             424.8                         0.49

                               less net debt                                                      -474                        -0.55
                               less other liabilities                                              -17                        -0.02

                               Sum-of-parts valuation                                            967.4                         1.12

                               Current price                                                                                   0.50
                               Discount to SOTP valuation                                                                      56%
                               Target Price (40% discount to SOTP)                                                             0.78
                               Upside                                                                                          58%
                              Source: Company, DMG estimates.




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                               VALUATION

                               At current price, the stock is trading at a 54% discount to our SOTP valuation of S$1.12, which
                               we think is overly steep given management’s initiatives to unlock value and ability to grow NAV
                               through capital-recycling measures. Ascribing a 30% discount to its SOTP valuation, we derive a
                               target price of S$0.78, offering a potential capital gain of 52%. STL also offers a yield of 6% on
                               our base dividend forecast of S$0.03/share. Given its positive earnings growth and cash-laden
                               balance sheet, we believe it could hike its dividends or pay a special dividend on the completion
                               of its hotel sale.

                               Relative valuation
                               Relative to its peers, STL is trading at a lower P/B multiple of 0.8x. STL does not revalue its
                               hotels unlike some of its peers. As such, its book value is very much understated. It also
                               offers a more attractive dividend yield of 6.1% versus the 2.8% in the sector. We note that
                               hotel stocks generally tend to trade below their net asset valuations in the absence of
                               company-specific catalysts or are the subject of M&A interests.


                               Figure 2: Hotel peers
                                Name                        Mkt Cap     P/E (x)    P/B (x)     Div      ROE      P/Sales        1-Yr
                                                            (US$m)                            yield     (%)        (x)       return (%)
                                                                                               (%)
                                Mandarin Oriental             1395.5       18.8        1.5       3.6      4.9         2.4           -15.9
                                CDL Hospitality               1019.5        9.0        0.9       7.9     10.2         9.8           -32.2
                                Pan Pacific Hotel Group        841.9       25.3        1.4       2.2      6.7         3.3            12.6
                                Hotel Properties               748.5        5.9        0.7       2.7     10.9         2.1           -31.8
                                Fragrance Group                708.5        8.9        3.3       2.3     36.2         3.3            67.1
                                Banyan Tree                    376.5       21.7        1.0       0.8      3.0         1.5           -31.4
                                Hotel Grand Central            289.1       19.6        0.5       5.7      1.3         2.3            -9.2
                                Bonvest Holdings               277.5       14.1        0.6       2.0     10.4         2.3            -9.3
                                Mulpha International           270.1        2.9        0.3       0.0      4.5         1.0           -16.1
                                Hotel Royal                    136.5       30.9        0.6       2.4      1.8         3.6            -9.1
                                Amara Holdings                 117.2        9.2        0.8       1.9      8.5         2.4           -41.0
                                Average                        561.9       15.1        1.1       2.8      9.0         3.1           -10.6

                                Stamford Land                   327.8      15.7        0.8       6.1     12.8         1.6            -6.3
                               Source: Bloomberg and DMG estimates




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                                                                                                                 DMG Research
                                BUSINESS SEGMENTS

                                HOTELS

                                Unlocking value via asset sale
                                On 3 Oct 2011, STL announced that it has signed a MOU for the sale-and-leaseback of
                                three of its hotels, the Stamford Plaza Melbourne, Stamford Grand Adelaide and Stamford
                                Plaza Sydney Airport hotel for a consideration of A$316m. STL will continue to operate
                                and manage the hotel after the sale. The sale price represents a premium of 112%, or
                                A$167.3m, over its book value of A$148.7m, and on completion, will enable STL to
                                monetise and unlock a significant amount of the embedded surplus within its hotel
                                portfolio. STL also stands to receive ~S$400m in cash, which will come in handy for asset
                                acquisitions or growing its property development business. We believe part of the
                                proceeds could also be distributed to shareholders, either in the form of raised dividend
                                payouts or a special dividend. This deal testifies to management’ s keen sense of timing
                                and ability to unlock value from its assets at the opportune time.

                                Figure 3:Sale-and-Leaseback deal for 3 hotels
                                  Hotel                                 Location                  Tenure          No. of rooms
                                  Stamford Plaza                        Melbourne                 Freehold                      283
                                  Stamford Grand                        Adelaide                  Freehold                      220
                                  Stamford Sydney Airphort              Sydney                    Freehold                      315
                                  Total                                                                                         818


                                  Book value (A$m)                                                                            148.7
                                  Sale Price (A$m)                                                                              316
                                  Surplus (A$m)                                                                                 167
                                  Premium over book                                                                           113%
                                  Per room valuation (A$)                                                                  386,308
                                Source: Company and DMG estimates




                                Large embedded surplus within hotel portfolio
                                STL’s hotel portfolio comprises of seven hotels in Australia and one hotel in New Zealand
                                with a book value of S$476m. STL’s hotels were purchased in the mid-1990s to 2000
                                period when asset prices were cheap and with the additional benefit of a strong currency,
                                these hotels are now worth substantially more than the value reflected on the balance
                                sheet, which is still being kept at historical cost. We estimate a revaluation surplus of
                                S$365m, or S$0.42/share, if the assets are marked to market. This puts the value of its
                                hotels at A$663m (S$841m), which we think is conservative given:

                                1) In March 2008, the group received an offer of A$850m (S$1.1b) for its eight hotels,
                                representing a surplus of more than S$500m,

                                2) The recent sale-and-leaseback deal for its three hotels was sealed at a 15% premium
                                to our valuation for these assets. The premium over book in the deal, at 112%, was higher
                                than the 77% premium implied in our valuation for the eight hotels.

                                Our valuation for its hotels reflects a cap yield of 7%, in line with the 5.8-7.6% range that
                                Australian hotels historically trades and implies per key valuation of A$323,000, which we
                                consider reasonable given recent transactions in the market and the prime locations of
                                STL’s hotels. In Dec-10, Pan Pacific Hotels bought the Hilton Melbourne Airport for
                                A$109m, or A$395,000 per key, while the Sofitel Wentworth Sydney was transacted in
                                May-10 at A$300,000 per key.


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                                Figure 4: Valuation of STL’s 8 hotels
                                  Hotel                                           Location               Tenure         No. of rooms
                                  Stamford Grand North Ryde                       Sydney                 Freehold                    256
                                  Stamford Plaza                                  Melbourne              Freehold                    283
                                  Stamford Grand                                  Adelaide               Freehold                    220
                                  Stamford Plaza                                  Adelaide               Freehold                    336
                                  Stamford Plaza                                  Auckland               Freehold                    283
                                  Sir Stamford at Circular Quay                   Sydney                 Leasehold                   105
                                  Stamford Plaza                                  Brisbane               Leasehold                   252
                                  Stamford Sydney Airport                         Sydney                 Freehold                    315
                                  Total                                                                                             2050

                                  EBITDA forecast (FY12) - A$m                                                                    46.4
                                  DMG's estimate of capital value of STL's 8 hotels (A$m)                                          663
                                  Valuation per key (A$)                                                                      323,255
                                  Source: Company and DMG estimates



                                Limited supply pipeline underpins resilient earnings outlook for STL’s hotels
                                According to Jones Lang Lasalle, Australia’s accommodation room supply grew at a tepid
                                1.5% per annum over the past decade (2000-2010). New hotel developments were
                                limited due to high cost of debt funding and limited access to bank financing. Hotel values
                                did not keep pace with rapid growth in construction cost and underlying land costs.
                                During this period, non-strata hotels were sold below replacement cost and there was
                                little impetus to build. On the demand front, Australia’s prime CBD markets, where STL’s
                                hotels are mostly located, continued to zoom ahead, recording strong Revpar growth of
                                5.9% p.a. during 2000-2010. This was a result of supply growth (1.7% p.a) being
                                outpaced by modest demand growth of 2.8% p.a. As a result, occupancy levels have
                                increased from 69% in 2000 to 81% in 2010. Nominal Revpar, meanwhile, has now fully
                                recovered to pre-crisis levels. The prime CBD markets are expected to record strong
                                growth over the medium term. With occupancy levels at record highs, near-term growth
                                will be driven by higher room rates, driving profitability and capital values.

                                Under this backdrop, we expect STL’s hotel earnings to remain resilient with EBITDA
                                growing at CAGR of 5% over FY11-13F, underpinned by a strong domestic corporate
                                travel segment and limited supply in the pipeline. While a strong Australian dollar has led
                                to flattish inbound tourist arrivals in the past five years, STL derives over 70% of its
                                revenue from the domestic corporate travel market, which has remained buoyant due to
                                the strong economic growth of the economy amid a resources boom.

                                Figure 5: Hotel trading performance (2000-201) in Australia’s key cities




                                Source: Jones Lang Lasalle
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                                Property Development

                                STL’s other core business is property development. The current portfolio comprised of a
                                completed development in Auckland, the Stamford Residences,with the project over 46%
                                sold and its flagship project in Sydney, the Stamford Residences & The Reynell
                                Terraces located in the heritage precinct of the Rocks, which is 70% pre-sold based on
                                value. Upon completion of the Sydney project in the current quarter, STL stands to collect
                                A$162m (~S$200m) in sales proceeds, with further cash proceeds as the remaining
                                units are marketed. Meanwhile, STL has also obtained development approval to re-
                                develop its North Ryde hotel site into a residential project with 626 units targeting the
                                mass market. The re-development enables it to enhance land use with plot ratio raised
                                from 1x to 2.5x. In total, we estimate a development surplus of S$106m from its 3
                                projects, and a capital value of S$425m.

                                Figure 6: Stamford Land’s residential projects




                                Investment property

                                STL’s key investment property is its 13,180 sqm freehold office property at Hay Street,
                                Perth. The building has been leased to oil and gas giant Chevron Australia for a period of
                                10 years, with initial rental of A$9.8m and 5% annual rental escalation. On its valuation of
                                A$134m, STL is getting a net yield of 7% on the asset. STL completed the property last
                                year at a cost of A$80m and realised a revaluation gain of A$50m. It put the property up
                                for sale last year and received offers as high as A$137m, but in the end decided to keep
                                the property for rental income as the Perth office market continues to see strong business
                                demand from the resource sector.

                                Figure 7: Stamford Land’s commercial projects




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                                FINANCIALS




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DMG & Partners Research Guide to Investment Ratings

Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months
Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain
Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months
Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels
Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months
Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage

  DISCLAIMERS

  This research is issued by DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd and it is for general distribution only. It does not have any regard to the specific
  investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any specific recipient of this research report. You should independently evaluate
  particular investments and consult an independent financial adviser before making any investments or entering into any transaction in relation to
  any securities or investment instruments mentioned in this report.

  The information contained herein has been obtained from sources we believed to be reliable but we do not make any representation or warranty
  nor accept any responsibility or liability as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions and views expressed in this report are subject to
  change without notice.

  This report does not constitute or form part of any offer or solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities.

  DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd is a wholly owned subsidiary of DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd, a joint venture between OSK Investment
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  securities covered in the report, and may also perform or seek to perform broking and other corporate finance related services for the corporations
  whose securities are covered in the report.

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  As of the day before11 October 2011, none of the analysts who covered the stock in this report has an interest in the subject companies covered in
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             Analyst           Company
             a) Nil
             b) Nil


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