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					   Comparison of Economic
Development in India, China and
          ASEAN.

                 By
         Mohan Guruswamy
    Centre for Policy Alternatives
             New Delhi
         www.cpasind.com
   India, China, ASEAN and the World

                         World        India    China    ASEAN

Population (mn)          6237         1055      1288     542

GNP ($bn)               34,577         601      1417     686

Growth (%)                2.8          8.6       9.3    4.64

% of Global Pop.           --         17.0      21.0     9.0
% of Global GNP            --         1.73      4.09    1.98

            Source: World Development Indicators 2005
India, China, ASEAN and “White World”

                      Developed      India   China   ASEAN
                       World*
Age Group % of           49.6        54.05   56.75   60.97
Pop. (15-49)
GNP ($bn)               25,272       601     1417     686

Per cap ($)             28,363       530     1100    1264

* USA, Europe & Russian Federation
  Source: World Development Indicators 2005 & US Census
                        Bureau
    Basic Indicators of China, India &
            ASEAN Countries
Country       Population (mn)       GNP (bn $)        Per Capita GNP ($)
India               1055                601                   530
China               1288               1417                  1100
ASEAN                542                686                  1264
Brunei               3.63               4.71                13,545
Cambodia            14.13               4.21                  293
Indonesia           213.5               209.0                 947
Laos                 5.61               2.04                  340
Malaysia            25.05               104.0                4,248
Myanmar             53.51                9.6                  863
Philippines          81.1               79.27                 992
Singapore            4.2                91.35               21,492
Thailand            63.95               143.3                2,275
Vietnam              81.2               39.02               486.01
   Source: ASEAN Finance & Macroeconomic Surveillance Unit & International
                   Financial Statistics Yearbook 2004, IMF
            Economic Indicators 2003
Indicator                      India      China        ASEAN

GDP ($ bn)                      601        1417          686

GNP per capita ($)              530        1100         1264

GNP in PPP                     2880        4990        2014*
* Except Brunei & Myanmar
    Source: World Development Indicators 2005, Statistical Outline of
      India 2004 – 05, TATA Economic Services & ASEAN Finance &
                    Macroeconomic Surveillance Unit
        GDP Structure – Percent Share

Country   Agriculture   Industry   Services   Agriculture   Industry   Services
            (1990)       (1990)     (1990)      (2003)       (2003)     (2003)
India         31          28         41           23          26         52

China         27          42         31           15          53         32

ASEAN         22          32         46           21          31         48

 Source: Statistical outline of India 2004-05, TATA Economic Services
                        & CIA Country Fact sheet
           Employment Break-up
Percent Share       India          China       ASEAN

Agriculture          60.5           50          46.5

Industry             16.8           22           12

Services             22.7           28          41.5

 Source: China Statistical Yearbook 2000, NSS 55th Round
    Employment & Un-employment Survey 1999-00 &
              ASEAN-Japan Centre Website
          GDP Growth Rates
Period        India       China       ASEAN

1980s          5.7        10.3          6.0

1990s          5.9         10           7.3

2000           6.2         9.1          6.2
Onwards

  Source: World Development Indicators 2005 &
           US-ASEAN Business Council
             Energy Indicators – 2003

Indicators                        India      China      ASEAN

Electricity Production (bn Kwh)    577       1472        560
Electricity Consumption Per        365        893        712
capita (Kwh)
Oil Production (mn bbl/day)        0.78       3.4         2.6
Oil Consumption (mn bbl/day)       2.13      4.95        3.75
  Source: Statistical Outline of India, 2004-05, CIA Factbook &
                       ASEAN Energy Centre
      Demographic Indicators 2003
Indicators                          India      China      ASEAN

Birth Rate (per 1000)                25         15          20

Death Rate (per 1000)                 8          8           7

IMR (per 1000)                       65         30          38

Life expectancy (Years)              65         71          67

Surface Area („000 sq. km.)         3278       9598        3635

Population Density (per sq km)       347        136        121

 Source: ASEAN Statistical Yearbook, 2004 & Statistical Outline of
            India, 2004-05, TATA Economic Services
      Development Indicators 2002
Indicators                   India    China       ASEAN

Poverty ($1 a day)            35        17          11
Gini Index                   37.8      40.3        35.04
Public exp. on health (%       5         6          11
of GDP)
Public exp. on education      4.1       2.9        17.4
(% of GDP)
      Source: World Development Indicators 2005, Key
   Indicators of Developing Asian & Pacific Countries, ADB,
                            2004
                      Social Indicators

                                    India       China       ASEAN
Gross enrolment ratio in             99          114           87
primary schools (%)

Adult Literacy (%)                   69          91            89
Labour cost per worker in           1192         729         152*-
Manufacturing ($ per year)                                  1638**

 * Cambodia ** Indonesia
   Source: Key Statistical indicators, Asian Development Bank 2004
  Prosperity Indicators -2002
Per 1000 pop.        India       China       ASEAN

Tel. Landlines        40          167        45.5**
Cellular Lines        12          161         15.5*
PC‟s                   7           28         25**
TV Sets               83          350         166*

 * Data Pertains to 2003, **Data Pertains to 2000


    Source: Statistical Outline of India 2004-05, TATA
   Economic Services & Asian Development Bank, 2001
    External Sectors of China, India
               & ASEAN
Country    Exports      Imports      Current Account          Foreign
                                         Balance             reserves
ASEAN        466          383              57.2*                  236

China        438          413               68.7              711**

India        55            70               -6.4                  127

*Data of Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore & Philippines
** not including Hong Kong ($122 bn.)

   Source: ASEAN Finance & Macroeconomic surveillance Unit, Statistical
        Outline of India 2004 -05 & The Economist August 27, 2005
       FDI Inflows (USD bn.)
Year         India      China       ASEAN
1990          0.2        3.8         10.2
1991          0.1        4.4         12.8
1992          0.3        11.2        10.5
1993          0.6        27.5        12.1
1994          1.0        33.8        13.3
1995          2.1        35.8        17.9
1996          2.4        40.2        18.2
1997          3.6        44.2        18.3
1998          2.6        43.8        23.1
1999          2.2        38.8        28.7
2000          2.3        38.4        23.4
2001          3.4        46.9        19.6
2002          3.4        52.7        14.5
2003          4.3        53.5        19.1

  Source: World Bank 2002 & Stat. Outline of
     India, 2004-05, TATA Eco. Services
        Intra-flow of FDI between India,
                 China & ASEAN

Country   Total FDI   India > China   India > ASEAN China > ASEAN
           ($bn)         ($mn)            ($mn)         ($mn)

India       4.3           28.8           61.08           495

China       53.5      China > India   ASEAN > India ASEAN > China


ASEAN       19.1          7.39             85           5885

*Data Pertains to 2002-03
  Source: Ministry of Commerce, GoI & ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta
  External Trade Value ($mn)
Description             India          China         ASEAN
Global Trade             115            851           847
Global Export             53            438           456

Global Import             61            412           391

   Source: Direction of Trade Statistics Year Book 2004, IMF
   India‟s Trade with China &
          ASEAN ($mn)

Description       Total Trade      Export       Import

China               13,604          5927         7678

ASEAN                9769*          4619         5150


*Data Pertains to 2003

        Source: Indo-china & Indo-ASEAN trade links,
                  www.economywatch.com
China‟s Trade with ASEAN ($mn)

     Total Trade         78,255
     Export              30,928

     Import              47,327


        Source: Direction of Trade
      Statistics Year Book 2004, IMF
Profile of India‟s Trade with
        China ($mn)
Trade Items              Imports to     Exports to
                           India          China
Primary Products            452           1,799
Manufactured Goods         2,862          2,453
Pharma Products             253             71
Office Machineries          118              2
Telecom & Sound             430              2
Recording
Scientific Apparatus         34              2
Photographic,                55              4
Optical, Watches
Total                      3,343          4,252
 Source: India-China Trade, Win-win situation or zero
   sum game, Ranade Sudhanshu, 16th April 2005,
                    Business line
           Profile of India‟s Trade with
                   ASEAN ($ mn)
Products                 Exports    Products                    Imports
                       from India                             from ASEAN
Cereals                 161.06      Animal & Vegetable Fats    1903.91
Food Residues &         331.00      Mineral Fuels & Oils       226.46
Animal Fodder
Mineral Fuel & Oils    1,185.22     Organic Chemicals          441.99
Organic Chemicals       348.49      Wood Articles              505.07
Cotton                  123.17      Books & Scripts            134.55
Manmade Filaments       136.00      Machinery & Appliances     1,127.80
Precious Stones         415.74      Electrical Machinery       779.86
Iron & Steel            390.44      Aircraft Parts             119.55
Machinery &             298.52      Ships, Boats               279.68
Appliances
Electrical Machinery    182.69      Ores, Slag & Ash           124.30
Total Trade            5,821.74     Total Trade                7,433.16
           Source: Ministry of Commerce, GoI, 2003-04
           Profile of China‟s Trade with
                   ASEAN ($ mn)
Products               Imports from   Products               Exports to
                          China                                China
Electrical Equipment      3240        Computer/Machinery       1940
Computer/Machinery        2440        Electrical Equipment     1710
Cereal                     520        Lubricants/Fuels/Oil     1009
Lubricants/Fuels/Oil       430        Fats & Oil                520

Ships/Boats                300        Wood                      510
Total                     6900        Total                    5770

           Source: ASEAN Secretariat, www.aseansec.org
What the stars foretell?
India and China will grow faster than ASEAN
India-China economic engagement will grow
much more than India_ASEAN
ASEAN is more linked with China than India
and will continue to be so
Indian FDI mostly from developed country
MNC’s using it as a manufacturing hub. Eg.
Ford, Suzuki, Honda
India cannot compete for developed country
markets for manufactured goods till SEZ’s
take-off
India and China will seek new trade links.

				
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posted:10/17/2011
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