Docstoc

Commodity Newsletter

Document Sample
Commodity Newsletter Powered By Docstoc
					                                                            December 29, 2010

                                                                                                  Commodity Prices
                                                                                                      (MCX)

Commodity Newsletter                                                                             Crude
                                                                                                 Gold
                                                                                                                     4138
                                                                                                                     20708
Top Stories so far...                                                                            Silver              45586
    The price of oil hit a 26-month high on Monday as producer nations signalled                 Copper                  431
    that they had no plans to boost output. But it later slipped back on fears a
                                                                                                 Nickel            1082.30
    Christmas Day interest rate hike by China may herald weaker demand there.
    US crude peaked at close to $92 but fell back to about $91 a barrel. Brent                   Lead               111.60
    crude eased $1 to about $93.50. Meanwhile, the incoming Iraqi oil minister
                                                                                                 Zinc               104.20
    claimed that his country's crude output hit 2.6 million barrels per day, its high-
    est level in 20 years.

    Snowstorms have deterred shoppers at post-Christmas sales in America's                        Indices & Currencies
    northeast, while retailers in the rest of the country are anticipating their high-
    est sales in three years. Blizzards caused shopping malls in several north-                  US Dollar Index          79.56
    eastern states to close early on Sunday, usually one of the biggest shopping
                                                                                                 Euro-Dollar Index        1.32
    days of the year.
                                                                                                 USD - INR                45.45
     The Basel Committee of the world's financial regulators has revealed plans
    for banks to disclose their bonuses.A consultation paper suggests banks
    publish details of how pay is linked to performance, as well aggregate figures
    for different types of remuneration. It would include individual pay details for
    top managers, risk management staff and "other material risk takers". It is
    hoped stock markets can then pressure banks to give employees better in-
    centives to reduce long-term risks                                                       Short-term moving
                                                                                                 averages

Technical Recommendation                                                                                                   Crude
                                                                                                        Gold    Silver
                                                                                                                            Oil
                                   RECO STOP
  Date       COMM. RECO                                   TGT           COMMENT
                                   PRICE LOSS                                            3-Day
                                                                                                        20566   44792      4147
                                                                                         SMA
29/12/2010 Silver         Sell      45670    45780      45360-220        Fresh call
                                                                                         12-Day
27/12/2010 Nat Gas        Buy      180.50     179        183-84         TGT ACHVD                       20550   44514      4074
                                                                                         SMA
                                                                                         21-Day
                                                                                                        20569   44230      4040
                                                                                         SMA
Crucial Levels
                                                                                         3-Day
                                  Weak                       Strong                                     20602   44992      4139
 COMMODITY            LTP                       TGT                           TGT        EMA
                                  Below                      Above
                                                                                         12-Day
GOLD                 20708        19700         19500         19900          20800                      20548   44455      4085
                                                                                         EMA
SILVER               45670        43000         41000         42000          45000       21-Day
                                                                                         EMA            20513   43948      4039
CRUDE                 4138         3900         3700          4000            4180



                                 Report Heading: Commodity Newsletter     Monarch Group of Companies                           Page 1
Action in Precious Metals and Base Metals
                                                 Precious Metal
  Comex gold futures prices were trading modestly higher Monday afternoon as the market posts a consoli-
  dative, light volume holiday week session. Little fresh fundamental news emerged to drive prices in either
  direction Monday and the Feb contract posted an "inside" trading day, in which the market traded in be-
  tween the previous session's high and low. Feb Comex gold last traded up $2.00 at $1,382.50 an ounce.
  Spot gold last traded down $1.10 at $1,383.15.

  The outlook for silver supplies for 2011 depends on how one measures investment demand and its impact
  on supply. Mine supply is expected to grow in 2011 as higher metals prices in general encourage produc-
  tion. While there are primary producers of silver, it’s often a byproduct of mining for other metals like zinc,
  lead, gold or copper.

                                                   Base Metal
  Base metals opened somewhat stronger on Friday morning on the LME on dip-buying but trading was
  relatively quiet, with a lack of directional cues and little reason for big position changes in the run-up to the
  long holiday weekend.

  European shares retreated slightly on Friday at the start of a shortened session, with many stock markets
  closed due to the Christmas holiday.

  Meanwhile in Asia, Shanghai copper stayed in negative territory, weighed down by a weak close on the
  LME and softer Chinese equity markets.

  “Judging by today’s trading, the cold weather in China and coal shortages that are threatening aluminium,
  lead and zinc production do not seem to be having too big an impact on prices. When bull markets fail to
  react to bullish news, it’s a warning sign,” FastMarkets analyst William Adams said.

  Risk appetite evaporated on Friday as shallow liquidity kept major traders on the sidelines. Trading is
  likely to remain quiet, with traders looking to book profits before the end of the year.

  Volumes were light, with only 1,593 lots of copper and 1,490 lots of aluminium changing hands on LME
  Select by 10:30 GMT.

                                                    Crude Oil
  Oil prices hovered above $91 a barrel Monday in Asia as some OPEC ministers signaled the group does-
  n't plan to boost output to cool the recent jump in crude. Benchmark oil for February delivery fell 17 cents
  to $91.34 a barrel midday Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Ex-
  change.Crude oil prices were higher Wednesday on hopes that demand for oil and products made with oil
  will go up next year as the economy recovers, hopes that were fueled by comments from James Ballard,
  President of the St. Louis branch of the US Federal Reserve. Gains also came on bad weather in the US.

  Arab members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said at a meeting in Cairo over the
  weekend that the full group would likely not meet until June to discuss production quota policy. OPEC,
  which accounts for about 40 percent of global crude output, left quotas unchanged at a meeting earlier



                            Report Heading: Commodity Newsletter   Monarch Group of Companies                  Page 2
Technical Recommendation


Commodity : Silver    Recco: Sell CMP: 45660                 SL :45770           TGT: 45360-220



                                                                     Price Oscillators showing the over-
                                                                     bought condition.

                                                                     Hourly RSI is above 90 level , which
                                                                     shows the highly overbought situation so
                                                                     expected prices to get correct.




                     Report Heading: Commodity Newsletter   Monarch Group of Companies                     Page 3
Call Performance (Week to Date)

Summary Table
       Total Calls                   Target                        Stop Loss                  Success Ratio
             111                         88                           23                         79.79%


                                                                                     Net
                                                                                  Profit /
                                  Reco                    STOP        TGT/SL
   Date        Comm.      Reco                  TGT                                 Loss            Comment
                                  Price                   LOSS         Date
                                                                                  (in Rs.)
                                                                                      *
Positional Call (Open)
20/12/2010    Crude       Buy     4020          4400       3820            -         -       Open

Positional Calls (Performance)
25/11/2010    Zinc        Buy       95          105          89      7/12/2010     50000     TGT ACHIEVED
19/11/2010    Crude       Buy     3740          3800       3705      19/11/2010    6000      Ist TGT ACHIEVED
 9/11/2010    Crude       Sell    3890          3760       3953      17/11/2010    13000     ALL TGT ACHIEVED
12//10/2010 Zinc          Buy      102         109-111       98      22/10/2010    45000     ALL TGT ACHIEVED
14/10/2010    Lead        Buy      104         112-114      100      25/10/2010    50000     ALL TGT ACHIEVED
 1/11/2010    Nickel      Buy     1025        1075-1100     991      9/11/2010     18750     ALL TGT ACHIEVED
17/09/2010    Copper      Buy      357         376-380      346      19/10/2010    23000     ALL TGT ACHIEVED

Intraday calls
27/12/2010    Nat Gas     Buy    180.60         184         179      27/12/2010    4625      TGT ACHIEVED
27/12/2010    Zinc        Buy      104         105.30       103      27/12/2010      -       Open
 27/12/201    Crude       Buy     4151          4175       4140      27/12/2010    1100      SL HIT
23/12/2010    Nickel      Buy     1082          1071       1093      23/12/2010   (2750)     SL HIT
22/12/2010    Zinc        Buy    104.10        105.20     103.50     22/12/2010    5500      TGT ACHIEVED
22/12/2010    Natur Gas   Buy     183.5         186       180.50     22/12/2010    3125      TGT ACHIEVED
22/12/2010    Aluminum    Sell   110.45        111.15     109.55     22/12/2010    4500      TGT ACHIEVED
21/12/2010    Natur Gas   Sell     193          190        191.6     21/12/2010    3750      TGT ACHIEVED
21/12/2010    Nickel      Buy     1111          1123       1104      21/12/2010    3000      TGT ACHIEVED
21/12/2010    Gold        Buy     20540        20590       20510     21/12/2010    5000      TGT ACHIEVED
21/12/2010    Alumin      Sell    107.9         107        108.5     21/12/2010   (3000)     SL HIT
20/12/2010    Gold        Buy     20480        20580       20410     20/12/2010    10000     TGT ACHIEVED


* Assumed Net Profit/ Loss is based on one lot .


                            Report Heading: Commodity Newsletter     Monarch Group of Companies                 Page 4
Registered Office:                                                                     Head Office:
7/7A/7B, Yusuf Building, Ground                                                        “MONARCH”
Floor/h. Akbar Allys,Homi Modi                                                         Opp. Ishwar Bhuvan,
Cross Lane No 1,Nr. Bombay                W W W . M O N AR C H P R O J E C T . C O M
                                                                                       Commerce Six Road,
House, Fort, Mumbai - 400 023.                                                         Navarangpura,
Contact No. : +91-22-66211800                                                          Ahmedabad – 380009.

                                     Email : research@monarchproject.com

Monarch Project & Finmarkets Limited is established in the Stock Market since 15 Years the Registered Of-
fice of which is at Mumbai and the corporate office at Ahmedabad. The Company was incorporated with the
promise to serve the investors in the best possible manner and with the help of the employees and technol-
ogy, company is able to fulfill this promise till today and the same will continue for the coming days. We en-
gaged in Equity/Commodity/Online trading, looking to cater you as per your requirement. Monarch Project &
Finmarkets Limited is registered member of NSE & NSDL Whereas, Monarch Research & Brokerage Private
Limited, a Business Associate, is the member ofBSE. Moreover, Monarch Commodities Private Limited is the
Member of MCX & NCDEX, NMCE, DGCX.


Disclaimer: The information and views presented in this report are prepared by Monarch Research & Broker-
age (p) Ltd ( hereinafter referred as MRBPL) and is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider
reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This Newsletter is for re-
stricted circulation and not for public distribution. The information furnished in this document is solely for your
information and must not be reproduced or redistributed in any manner. All having excess to this document
are required to observe such restrictions. The information in this document is for personal information and we
are not soliciting any action based upon it.. Recipients of this report should rely on their own investigation and
take their own professional advice. Recommendation in this report may or may not suit risk reward ratio of
individual investors and hence should not be completely rely upon. Information in this report could have been
generated with a view of technical analysis using charts, price movement, volumes and various studies/ indi-
cators applicable from time to time. They may not necessarily match the report published on fundamental
analysis. MRBPL and/or its affiliates, officers, directors, employees, remisers at all various locations may from
time to time hold any long or short positions and /or have any direct or indirect interest resulting in monetary
gains of any nature and /or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any view expressed in this
document. Recipients may please note that neither MRBPL nor any associate(s) accepts any liability or
losses arising from the use of this information and views mentioned in this document. No part of this material
may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without MRBPL’s prior written permission.


HONORS: Information contained in this report is obtained from various reliable sources which are beyond the
scope to mention each of them. We sincerely thank each different source for the valued information provided
and purpose to use the information is just to share the information without any prejudice, malafied intention
and/or for any commercial gains.




                             Report Heading: Commodity Newsletter           Monarch Group of Companies         Page 5

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Categories:
Tags:
Stats:
views:7
posted:10/16/2011
language:English
pages:5