Commodity Newsletter

					                                                            December 29, 2010

                                                                                                  Commodity Prices

Commodity Newsletter                                                                             Crude
Top Stories so far...                                                                            Silver              45586
    The price of oil hit a 26-month high on Monday as producer nations signalled                 Copper                  431
    that they had no plans to boost output. But it later slipped back on fears a
                                                                                                 Nickel            1082.30
    Christmas Day interest rate hike by China may herald weaker demand there.
    US crude peaked at close to $92 but fell back to about $91 a barrel. Brent                   Lead               111.60
    crude eased $1 to about $93.50. Meanwhile, the incoming Iraqi oil minister
                                                                                                 Zinc               104.20
    claimed that his country's crude output hit 2.6 million barrels per day, its high-
    est level in 20 years.

    Snowstorms have deterred shoppers at post-Christmas sales in America's                        Indices & Currencies
    northeast, while retailers in the rest of the country are anticipating their high-
    est sales in three years. Blizzards caused shopping malls in several north-                  US Dollar Index          79.56
    eastern states to close early on Sunday, usually one of the biggest shopping
                                                                                                 Euro-Dollar Index        1.32
    days of the year.
                                                                                                 USD - INR                45.45
     The Basel Committee of the world's financial regulators has revealed plans
    for banks to disclose their bonuses.A consultation paper suggests banks
    publish details of how pay is linked to performance, as well aggregate figures
    for different types of remuneration. It would include individual pay details for
    top managers, risk management staff and "other material risk takers". It is
    hoped stock markets can then pressure banks to give employees better in-
    centives to reduce long-term risks                                                       Short-term moving

Technical Recommendation                                                                                                   Crude
                                                                                                        Gold    Silver
                                   RECO STOP
  Date       COMM. RECO                                   TGT           COMMENT
                                   PRICE LOSS                                            3-Day
                                                                                                        20566   44792      4147
29/12/2010 Silver         Sell      45670    45780      45360-220        Fresh call
27/12/2010 Nat Gas        Buy      180.50     179        183-84         TGT ACHVD                       20550   44514      4074
                                                                                                        20569   44230      4040
Crucial Levels
                                  Weak                       Strong                                     20602   44992      4139
 COMMODITY            LTP                       TGT                           TGT        EMA
                                  Below                      Above
GOLD                 20708        19700         19500         19900          20800                      20548   44455      4085
SILVER               45670        43000         41000         42000          45000       21-Day
                                                                                         EMA            20513   43948      4039
CRUDE                 4138         3900         3700          4000            4180

                                 Report Heading: Commodity Newsletter     Monarch Group of Companies                           Page 1
Action in Precious Metals and Base Metals
                                                 Precious Metal
  Comex gold futures prices were trading modestly higher Monday afternoon as the market posts a consoli-
  dative, light volume holiday week session. Little fresh fundamental news emerged to drive prices in either
  direction Monday and the Feb contract posted an "inside" trading day, in which the market traded in be-
  tween the previous session's high and low. Feb Comex gold last traded up $2.00 at $1,382.50 an ounce.
  Spot gold last traded down $1.10 at $1,383.15.

  The outlook for silver supplies for 2011 depends on how one measures investment demand and its impact
  on supply. Mine supply is expected to grow in 2011 as higher metals prices in general encourage produc-
  tion. While there are primary producers of silver, it’s often a byproduct of mining for other metals like zinc,
  lead, gold or copper.

                                                   Base Metal
  Base metals opened somewhat stronger on Friday morning on the LME on dip-buying but trading was
  relatively quiet, with a lack of directional cues and little reason for big position changes in the run-up to the
  long holiday weekend.

  European shares retreated slightly on Friday at the start of a shortened session, with many stock markets
  closed due to the Christmas holiday.

  Meanwhile in Asia, Shanghai copper stayed in negative territory, weighed down by a weak close on the
  LME and softer Chinese equity markets.

  “Judging by today’s trading, the cold weather in China and coal shortages that are threatening aluminium,
  lead and zinc production do not seem to be having too big an impact on prices. When bull markets fail to
  react to bullish news, it’s a warning sign,” FastMarkets analyst William Adams said.

  Risk appetite evaporated on Friday as shallow liquidity kept major traders on the sidelines. Trading is
  likely to remain quiet, with traders looking to book profits before the end of the year.

  Volumes were light, with only 1,593 lots of copper and 1,490 lots of aluminium changing hands on LME
  Select by 10:30 GMT.

                                                    Crude Oil
  Oil prices hovered above $91 a barrel Monday in Asia as some OPEC ministers signaled the group does-
  n't plan to boost output to cool the recent jump in crude. Benchmark oil for February delivery fell 17 cents
  to $91.34 a barrel midday Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Ex-
  change.Crude oil prices were higher Wednesday on hopes that demand for oil and products made with oil
  will go up next year as the economy recovers, hopes that were fueled by comments from James Ballard,
  President of the St. Louis branch of the US Federal Reserve. Gains also came on bad weather in the US.

  Arab members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said at a meeting in Cairo over the
  weekend that the full group would likely not meet until June to discuss production quota policy. OPEC,
  which accounts for about 40 percent of global crude output, left quotas unchanged at a meeting earlier

                            Report Heading: Commodity Newsletter   Monarch Group of Companies                  Page 2
Technical Recommendation

Commodity : Silver    Recco: Sell CMP: 45660                 SL :45770           TGT: 45360-220

                                                                     Price Oscillators showing the over-
                                                                     bought condition.

                                                                     Hourly RSI is above 90 level , which
                                                                     shows the highly overbought situation so
                                                                     expected prices to get correct.

                     Report Heading: Commodity Newsletter   Monarch Group of Companies                     Page 3
Call Performance (Week to Date)

Summary Table
       Total Calls                   Target                        Stop Loss                  Success Ratio
             111                         88                           23                         79.79%

                                                                                  Profit /
                                  Reco                    STOP        TGT/SL
   Date        Comm.      Reco                  TGT                                 Loss            Comment
                                  Price                   LOSS         Date
                                                                                  (in Rs.)
Positional Call (Open)
20/12/2010    Crude       Buy     4020          4400       3820            -         -       Open

Positional Calls (Performance)
25/11/2010    Zinc        Buy       95          105          89      7/12/2010     50000     TGT ACHIEVED
19/11/2010    Crude       Buy     3740          3800       3705      19/11/2010    6000      Ist TGT ACHIEVED
 9/11/2010    Crude       Sell    3890          3760       3953      17/11/2010    13000     ALL TGT ACHIEVED
12//10/2010 Zinc          Buy      102         109-111       98      22/10/2010    45000     ALL TGT ACHIEVED
14/10/2010    Lead        Buy      104         112-114      100      25/10/2010    50000     ALL TGT ACHIEVED
 1/11/2010    Nickel      Buy     1025        1075-1100     991      9/11/2010     18750     ALL TGT ACHIEVED
17/09/2010    Copper      Buy      357         376-380      346      19/10/2010    23000     ALL TGT ACHIEVED

Intraday calls
27/12/2010    Nat Gas     Buy    180.60         184         179      27/12/2010    4625      TGT ACHIEVED
27/12/2010    Zinc        Buy      104         105.30       103      27/12/2010      -       Open
 27/12/201    Crude       Buy     4151          4175       4140      27/12/2010    1100      SL HIT
23/12/2010    Nickel      Buy     1082          1071       1093      23/12/2010   (2750)     SL HIT
22/12/2010    Zinc        Buy    104.10        105.20     103.50     22/12/2010    5500      TGT ACHIEVED
22/12/2010    Natur Gas   Buy     183.5         186       180.50     22/12/2010    3125      TGT ACHIEVED
22/12/2010    Aluminum    Sell   110.45        111.15     109.55     22/12/2010    4500      TGT ACHIEVED
21/12/2010    Natur Gas   Sell     193          190        191.6     21/12/2010    3750      TGT ACHIEVED
21/12/2010    Nickel      Buy     1111          1123       1104      21/12/2010    3000      TGT ACHIEVED
21/12/2010    Gold        Buy     20540        20590       20510     21/12/2010    5000      TGT ACHIEVED
21/12/2010    Alumin      Sell    107.9         107        108.5     21/12/2010   (3000)     SL HIT
20/12/2010    Gold        Buy     20480        20580       20410     20/12/2010    10000     TGT ACHIEVED

* Assumed Net Profit/ Loss is based on one lot .

                            Report Heading: Commodity Newsletter     Monarch Group of Companies                 Page 4
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                             Report Heading: Commodity Newsletter           Monarch Group of Companies         Page 5

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