December 29, 2010
Commodity Newsletter Crude
Top Stories so far... Silver 45586
The price of oil hit a 26-month high on Monday as producer nations signalled Copper 431
that they had no plans to boost output. But it later slipped back on fears a
Christmas Day interest rate hike by China may herald weaker demand there.
US crude peaked at close to $92 but fell back to about $91 a barrel. Brent Lead 111.60
crude eased $1 to about $93.50. Meanwhile, the incoming Iraqi oil minister
claimed that his country's crude output hit 2.6 million barrels per day, its high-
est level in 20 years.
Snowstorms have deterred shoppers at post-Christmas sales in America's Indices & Currencies
northeast, while retailers in the rest of the country are anticipating their high-
est sales in three years. Blizzards caused shopping malls in several north- US Dollar Index 79.56
eastern states to close early on Sunday, usually one of the biggest shopping
Euro-Dollar Index 1.32
days of the year.
USD - INR 45.45
The Basel Committee of the world's financial regulators has revealed plans
for banks to disclose their bonuses.A consultation paper suggests banks
publish details of how pay is linked to performance, as well aggregate figures
for different types of remuneration. It would include individual pay details for
top managers, risk management staff and "other material risk takers". It is
hoped stock markets can then pressure banks to give employees better in-
centives to reduce long-term risks Short-term moving
Technical Recommendation Crude
Date COMM. RECO TGT COMMENT
PRICE LOSS 3-Day
20566 44792 4147
29/12/2010 Silver Sell 45670 45780 45360-220 Fresh call
27/12/2010 Nat Gas Buy 180.50 179 183-84 TGT ACHVD 20550 44514 4074
20569 44230 4040
Weak Strong 20602 44992 4139
COMMODITY LTP TGT TGT EMA
GOLD 20708 19700 19500 19900 20800 20548 44455 4085
SILVER 45670 43000 41000 42000 45000 21-Day
EMA 20513 43948 4039
CRUDE 4138 3900 3700 4000 4180
Report Heading: Commodity Newsletter Monarch Group of Companies Page 1
Action in Precious Metals and Base Metals
Comex gold futures prices were trading modestly higher Monday afternoon as the market posts a consoli-
dative, light volume holiday week session. Little fresh fundamental news emerged to drive prices in either
direction Monday and the Feb contract posted an "inside" trading day, in which the market traded in be-
tween the previous session's high and low. Feb Comex gold last traded up $2.00 at $1,382.50 an ounce.
Spot gold last traded down $1.10 at $1,383.15.
The outlook for silver supplies for 2011 depends on how one measures investment demand and its impact
on supply. Mine supply is expected to grow in 2011 as higher metals prices in general encourage produc-
tion. While there are primary producers of silver, it’s often a byproduct of mining for other metals like zinc,
lead, gold or copper.
Base metals opened somewhat stronger on Friday morning on the LME on dip-buying but trading was
relatively quiet, with a lack of directional cues and little reason for big position changes in the run-up to the
long holiday weekend.
European shares retreated slightly on Friday at the start of a shortened session, with many stock markets
closed due to the Christmas holiday.
Meanwhile in Asia, Shanghai copper stayed in negative territory, weighed down by a weak close on the
LME and softer Chinese equity markets.
“Judging by today’s trading, the cold weather in China and coal shortages that are threatening aluminium,
lead and zinc production do not seem to be having too big an impact on prices. When bull markets fail to
react to bullish news, it’s a warning sign,” FastMarkets analyst William Adams said.
Risk appetite evaporated on Friday as shallow liquidity kept major traders on the sidelines. Trading is
likely to remain quiet, with traders looking to book profits before the end of the year.
Volumes were light, with only 1,593 lots of copper and 1,490 lots of aluminium changing hands on LME
Select by 10:30 GMT.
Oil prices hovered above $91 a barrel Monday in Asia as some OPEC ministers signaled the group does-
n't plan to boost output to cool the recent jump in crude. Benchmark oil for February delivery fell 17 cents
to $91.34 a barrel midday Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Ex-
change.Crude oil prices were higher Wednesday on hopes that demand for oil and products made with oil
will go up next year as the economy recovers, hopes that were fueled by comments from James Ballard,
President of the St. Louis branch of the US Federal Reserve. Gains also came on bad weather in the US.
Arab members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said at a meeting in Cairo over the
weekend that the full group would likely not meet until June to discuss production quota policy. OPEC,
which accounts for about 40 percent of global crude output, left quotas unchanged at a meeting earlier
Report Heading: Commodity Newsletter Monarch Group of Companies Page 2
Commodity : Silver Recco: Sell CMP: 45660 SL :45770 TGT: 45360-220
Price Oscillators showing the over-
Hourly RSI is above 90 level , which
shows the highly overbought situation so
expected prices to get correct.
Report Heading: Commodity Newsletter Monarch Group of Companies Page 3
Call Performance (Week to Date)
Total Calls Target Stop Loss Success Ratio
111 88 23 79.79%
Reco STOP TGT/SL
Date Comm. Reco TGT Loss Comment
Price LOSS Date
Positional Call (Open)
20/12/2010 Crude Buy 4020 4400 3820 - - Open
Positional Calls (Performance)
25/11/2010 Zinc Buy 95 105 89 7/12/2010 50000 TGT ACHIEVED
19/11/2010 Crude Buy 3740 3800 3705 19/11/2010 6000 Ist TGT ACHIEVED
9/11/2010 Crude Sell 3890 3760 3953 17/11/2010 13000 ALL TGT ACHIEVED
12//10/2010 Zinc Buy 102 109-111 98 22/10/2010 45000 ALL TGT ACHIEVED
14/10/2010 Lead Buy 104 112-114 100 25/10/2010 50000 ALL TGT ACHIEVED
1/11/2010 Nickel Buy 1025 1075-1100 991 9/11/2010 18750 ALL TGT ACHIEVED
17/09/2010 Copper Buy 357 376-380 346 19/10/2010 23000 ALL TGT ACHIEVED
27/12/2010 Nat Gas Buy 180.60 184 179 27/12/2010 4625 TGT ACHIEVED
27/12/2010 Zinc Buy 104 105.30 103 27/12/2010 - Open
27/12/201 Crude Buy 4151 4175 4140 27/12/2010 1100 SL HIT
23/12/2010 Nickel Buy 1082 1071 1093 23/12/2010 (2750) SL HIT
22/12/2010 Zinc Buy 104.10 105.20 103.50 22/12/2010 5500 TGT ACHIEVED
22/12/2010 Natur Gas Buy 183.5 186 180.50 22/12/2010 3125 TGT ACHIEVED
22/12/2010 Aluminum Sell 110.45 111.15 109.55 22/12/2010 4500 TGT ACHIEVED
21/12/2010 Natur Gas Sell 193 190 191.6 21/12/2010 3750 TGT ACHIEVED
21/12/2010 Nickel Buy 1111 1123 1104 21/12/2010 3000 TGT ACHIEVED
21/12/2010 Gold Buy 20540 20590 20510 21/12/2010 5000 TGT ACHIEVED
21/12/2010 Alumin Sell 107.9 107 108.5 21/12/2010 (3000) SL HIT
20/12/2010 Gold Buy 20480 20580 20410 20/12/2010 10000 TGT ACHIEVED
* Assumed Net Profit/ Loss is based on one lot .
Report Heading: Commodity Newsletter Monarch Group of Companies Page 4
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