amajuba agri plan by liaoxiuli2

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   AMAJUBA AGRICULTURAL PLAN
               FINAL REPORT


               IBHONGO CONSORTIUM
                                                  2

CONTENTS:                                                       Page No.

INTRODUCTION AND EXCECUTIVE SUMMARY                             4

  1.     IMPLEMENTATION PLAN                                    6
  1.1         Vision                                            6
  1.2         Mission                                           6
  1.3         Objectives                                        6
  1.4         Strategies                                        6
  1.5         Agri-village concept                              7
  1.5.1       Critical thoughts on post harvest systems         8
  1.5.2       Successes and challenges                          9
  1.5.3       Possible approach to the rural village model      10
  1.5.4       Pilot area location                               12
  1.6         Proposed projects                                 12
  1.6.1      Irrigation projects                                12
  1.6.2      Dry land projects                                  13
  1.6.3      Stock farming projects                             14
  1.6.4      Intensive farming                                  14
  1.6.4.1     Piggeries                                         14
  1.6.4.2     Poultry                                           15
  1.6.4.3     Dairies                                           15
  1.6.4.4     Feedlots                                          15
  1.6.5       Other projects for consideration                  16
  1.7         Prioritization                                    17
  1.8         10 year plan-cash flow projection                 18

  2           AGRICULTURAL RELATED RESOURCES AND ISSUES         20
  2.1         Population profile in the rural areas             20
  2.2         Livestock profile                                 21
  2.2.1       Cattle numbers                                    22
  2.2.2       Sheep numbers                                     23
  2.2.3       Goat numbers                                      25
  2.2.4       Animal Unit (AU) averages                         26
  2.3         Water availability, sources and balance,          27
  2.3.1       Major rivers and existing dams                    27
  2.3.2       Climate                                           31
  2.3.3       Average irrigation requirements                   33
  2.3.4       Water quality                                     35
  2.3.5       Mean annual runoff                                36
  2.3.6       Ground water resources                            39
  2.3.7       Present water availability                        40
  2.3.7.1     Direct river abstraction availability             40
  2.3.7.2     Proposed and potential dams                       46
  2.3.8       Comments on NRDC Document                         58
  2.4         Bioresource units                                 61
  2.4.1       Rainfall                                          64
  2.4.2       Temperature                                       64
  2.4.3       Evapotranspiration                                66
  2.4.4       Climate capability classification                 66
  2.5         Soils and veld classification of available land   68
  2.5.1       Geology                                           68
  2.5.2       Slope and elevation                               68
  2.5.3       Soils                                             68
  2.5.4       Veld                                              70
  2.6         Roads, electricity, railway lines                 80
  2.6.1       Roads                                             80
  2.6.2       Electricity                                       81
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    2.6.3      Railway lines                                                           81
    2.7        Markets and Agricultural related structures                             82
    2.7.1      Local markets                                                           82
    2.7.2      Marketing and finance opportunities                                     86
    2.8        Agricultural organizations, role players-profiles, roles.               87
    2.8.1      Agricultural organizations                                              87
    2.8.2      General                                                                 87
    2.9        Crops, forestation & pasturing                                          87
    2.9.1      Annual cash crops                                                       87
    2.9.2      Forestation                                                             92
    2.9.3      Pasturing                                                               93
    2.10       Game farming                                                            95
    2.11       Projects                                                                96
    2.11.1     LED or poverty alleviation projects                                     96
    2.12       Support/extension structures                                            97
    2.13       Policies                                                                97
    2.14       Land claims                                                             97
    2.15       Environmental issues.                                                   98
    2.16       Funders                                                                 100
    2.17       Analysis of existing agricultural sector                                100

3   AGRICULTURAL NATURAL RESOURCE POTENTIAL                                            103
    3.1     Irrigation                                                                 104
    3.2     Cultivation                                                                106
    3.3     Pasturing                                                                  106
    3.4     Grazing/livestock                                                          106
    3.5     Forestation                                                                114
    3.6     Intensive farming (feedlots, tunnels, dairies, piggeries, poultry)         114
    3.7     Game farming                                                               116
    3.8     High value products                                                        116
    3.9     Value adding projects                                                      117

4   COSTS AND VIABILITY                                                                119
    4.1     Irrigation projects                                                        119
    4.2     Dry land cultivation                                                       128
    4.3     Grazing/Livestock                                                          130
    4.4     Piggeries                                                                  132
    4.5     Poultry                                                                    134
    4.6     Dairy                                                                      135
    4.7     Feedlot                                                                    136

5   SUMMARY RECOMMENDATIONS                                                            137
    5.1    Irrigation projects (Clause 1.6.1)                                          137
    5.2    Dry land projects (Clause 1.6.2)                                            137
    5.3    Stock farming projects (Clause 1.6.3)                                       138
    5.4    Piggeries (Clause 1.6.4.1)                                                  138
    5.5    Poultry (Clause 1.6.4.2)                                                    138
    5.6    Dairies (1.6.4.3)                                                           138
    5.7    Feedlots (Clause 1.6.4.4)                                                   139
    5.8    Other projects for consideration (Clause 1.6.5)                             139
    5.9    Soils (Clause 2.5.3)                                                        139
    5.10   Environmental issues (Clause 2.15)                                          139
    5.11   Herd composition (Clause 3.4.4)                                             140


5       Maps                                                                     Separate Volume
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                  AMAJUBA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN

INTRODUCTION AND EXCECUTIVE SUMMARY


The vision of the Agricultural Development Plan is to provide information to existing and future agricultural
developers (farmers) to assist with decision making on crops, markets, investments, etc., thereby ensuring well
planned and successful enterprises.


The Amajuba IDP has identified Local Economic Development (LED) as one of the highest priorities. With the
establishment of the Amajuba Forum for Local Economic Development (AFLED) the need has been identified
to develop an Agricultural Development Plan. Consultants have been invited by advertising for proposal to be
submitted to the Amajuba District Municipality. Ibhongo Consortium has subsequently been appointed on 28
April 2005 to compile the envisaged Agricultural Sector Development Plan.


The terms of reference to the Consultants provided for separate plans for each of the three Local Municipalities,
namely Utrecht, Newcastle and Dannhauser. Although responsibility for Local Economic Development is
vested in Amajuba District Municipality, it must be emphasized that due to the complexity of issues such as the
availability and usage of water, that close collaboration between Local Municipalities would be necessary for
the proposals to succeed. It is also essential to form linkages with neighboring District Municipalities. Should
the proposed dam in the Mzinyashana river becomes economically viable in the future for example, the
Umzinyathi District Municipality needs to “buy-in” to make the project feasible, since there is not enough
suitable land in the Amajuba District that can be economically irrigated from the proposed dam. All proposed
dams would some or other way affect all the Local Municipalities and even other District Municipalities.
DWAF would also need to be consulted at an early stage.


It was established in this study from preliminary economical analysis, based on rough data, that the main
agricultural potential of the Amajuba District Municipality, in order of priority in terms of optimum land use,
evolves around intensive farming, irrigation, dry land farming and stock farming. Potential intensive farming
and irrigation projects therefore need to receive first priority when allocating land for agricultural use. Although
it seems from the preliminary economical analysis that the proposed agricultural projects might be feasible from
a financier’s point of view, all agricultural projects would require substantial subsidization of the capital cost
and also the initial input costs, to make it feasible from a cash flow point of view for the farmers.


Conventional intensive farming projects that have potential and are often on the “wish lists” of communities are
poultry projects, piggeries, dairies and feedlots. All these projects require substantial subsidization to be
successful and also aftercare for extended periods. It is recommended that these projects be implemented at
places where interest and capacity is shown, in a pilot project fashion. The minimum recommended sizes being
10 000 bird poultry, 100 sow piggery, 100 cow dairy and 400 beast feedlot, for economy of scale and
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management reasons. Each hundred cow dairy unit must include the establishment of at least 30 ha irrigated
pastures and 50 ha dry land maize and pastures for silage and hay.


There is presently limited water available for irrigation and the proposed Ncandu, Horn and Upper Buffalo dams
need to be constructed to realize the economic viable irrigation potential of 5700 ha. As there are presently a
surplus of approximately 23Mm3 available from the Ntshingwayo dam, irrigation development at a rate of
approximately 380 ha per year may commence immediately, provided that construction of the Ncandu dam
commence simultaneously, with the Horn dam middle 2007 and the Upper Buffalo dam middle 2010.The
maximum irrigation area along the Horn/Ngagane rivers up to the Ngagane’s confluence with the Buffalo river,
should not exceed 1400 ha. The maximum area along the Ncandu River up to the Buffalo confluence should not
exceed 1300 ha (if the water is not transferred). The remaining 3000 ha could be anywhere along the Buffalo
river, downstream of the proposed upper Buffalo river dam. The closer the areas are located to the dams the
lower the conveyance losses will be. At the same token the previously neglected areas around Madadeni should
receive serious attention. Some of the mentioned 3000 ha will fall in the Utrecht Local Municipality area, and
further downstream also in the Dannhauser area. Some other less feasible dams are discussed in this study, with
an estimated irrigation potential of 4600 ha. This 4600 ha should form part of the proposed dry land area to be
revived, in order to secure these areas for possible future irrigation, should the economic viability improve. The
total initial un-inflated cost including initial input costs, is estimated to be R 1051M. (Excluding the
establishment of the 4600 ha possible future irrigation).


It is estimated that approximately 10 000 ha of dry land that would not be irrigated and that is not utilized fully
at present, could be suitable for cultivation and requires reviving. These areas are mostly situated in the black
owned/Land Affairs areas around Madadeni and Ozisweni. The total un-inflated initial investment
required, including initial input costs, is estimated to be R135M.


There is approximately 30 000 ha of suitable, but degraded grazing land available in the area around
Madadeni, which is not suitable for dry land or irrigation purposes, which require fencing, dip tanks and access
roads to improve the meat/milk yield. The estimated un-inflated cost to provide this for the mentioned
3000ha, is R42 M.


FIRST REVISION MARCH 2006:                        Add the following:
Item 2.3.8      Comments by Ibhongo on document submitted by the NRDC on 13 January 2006:
                AMAJUBA WATER CATCHMENTS INFORMATION VERIFICATION
                MEETING RE: WATER AVAILABILITY
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                    AMAJUBA AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN


1         IMPLEMENTATION PLAN

1.1       Vision

          The Vision of the IDP is to develop the Amajuba DM area and its people to its full potential. One of the
          development areas is agriculture and the vision for this is to develop an agricultural development plan.

1.2       Mission


          The mission of the Agricultural Development Plan, is to guide all Local Municipalities within Amajuba
          District Municipality area and other stakeholders, on the development of the Agricultural Sector,
          ensuring well planned and successful enterprises that will not have a negative impact on the natural
          environment and other land users (industries, residential, mining), in order to provid long term
          economic upliftment, especially for the previously disadvantaged groups and economic sustainability
          for all the existing agricultural related enterprises.

1.3       Objectives


          The objective of this study is to make recommendations to address the problems and challenges within
          Amajuba Agriculture with reference to:


         Agricultural development strategies.
         Identification of viable agricultural enterprises in terms of available bio resources.
         Project identification of potentially viable projects
         Simplified economic feasibility analysis of selected potential enterprises
         Identification of the beneficiaries, funders, stakeholders, etc.
         10 year development programme
         Capital and cash flow requirements.


1.4       Strategies


          In order to develop the agricultural potential of the area on a large scale successfully, the following
          strategies are recommended:


          1.       Continue to coordinate all agricultural development through the Amajuba Forum for Local
                   Economic Development (AFLED). Continue to involve Government Departments such as
                   Department of Agriculture, Works, Water Affairs and Health, on a high level, in order to secure
                   budgets for the proposed agricultural development and develop the agricultural potential in a
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              structured way, and to ensure that only specialists in the agricultural field conducts
              development.
      2.      Establish a full time dedicated office in Madadeni and Newcastle for agricultural development.
      3.      Appoint Agricultural Engineers for detailed studies on the proposed projects, commencing with
              intensive farming projects and irrigation (with dams)
      4.      Appoint soil scientists for micro analysis of soils for the proposed projects to confirm suitability
      5.      Appoint economists for more detailed economic analysis.
      6.      Source funds for the total project (R 1700 M) to be available over a ten-year period. The period
              may have to be extended to accommodate availability of funds and implementation capacity of
              the construction/engineering industry. Donor funding may only realize approximately 90% of
              the required funds, with a balance 10-15% to be provided by the participants through banks or
              the participants themselves.
      7.      Assist the Government Departments in establishing secure and auditable ways to transfer large
              sums directly to groups of participants. The Amajuba District Municipality may offer to
              administer trust accounts on behalf of the Government Departments and participants. Chartered
              Accountants need to be appointed to assist in developing this.
      9.      Intensive training in project management and accounting for groups of participants in order to
              establish trustworthy bodies to which Government Departments can transfer large sums of
              funds for development.
      10.     Appoint specialists in the different fields of projects proposed, on a time and cost basis for
              training/aftercare of implemented projects. This training needs to commence before or
              simultaneously with implementation
      11.     Appoint specialists to investigate value-adding projects such as Bio Diesel. I order to establish
              economically viable projects; at least one to two percent (1-2%)of the project value needs to be
              invested in preliminary studies. In the case of Bio-Diesel this may amount to more than
              R700000. Donors are available for this kind of projects but they usually require at least a 30 %
              contribution from the participants.
      12.     Establish a pilot agri-village as proposed here below.
      13.     Establish a project monitoring body in order to adapt future projects in accordance to lessons
              learned through established projects.
      14.      Publicize the intentions, roles and progress regarding agricultural development of the Amajuba
               District Municipality by radio, television, newspapers, and magazines.


1.5   Agri-village concept


      The concept of the rural village embraces the need to increase efficiency, increase growth and reduce
      poverty amongst the rural poor. It forms part of the framework of the Amajuba District Municipality’s
      Integrated Development Plan to uplift communities to become self sufficient. The implementation of
      the concept is via a proposed rural village for a pilot project in Newcastle area. The model relies heavily
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        on a vision for the future that should be strived to attain especially now that globalization and transport
        networks/telecommunications are improving. One of the critical issues that are problematic between the
        farmer and the end consumer is the post-harvest and the agro-industrial cycle.
1.5.1   Some critical thoughts on post-harvest systems and Agro-industry development within the model


        The critical area in the model is the need to develop post-harvest systems and Agro-industry as a
        strategy to raise the income of the rural poor. As Agro processing is labour intensive and generates
        higher value added than unprocessed agriculture products. Such increase in income will play a
        significant role in poverty reduction, sustainable growth and food security.


        Increasing urbanization and the opening of access to world markets under globalization raise the
        demand for storage, quality, convenience, and safety characteristics of food products that are exported
        or consumed in the growing formal food sector of cities. Urban consumers increasingly are willing to
        pay for consistency, quality, and safety of purchased foods. Compliance with conditions set under the
        sanitary and phyto-sanitary (SPS) agreements that accompany WTO negotiations will be critical for the
        continued participation of both developing countries and small-scale farmers in the expanding markets
        of developed countries. Many of the required safety and quality characteristics are largely determined
        by the handling and treatment of commodities after they leave the farm gate. Meeting these new
        demands not only requires that the products meet the characteristics, but also that they can be verifiably
        certified as such, which involves better organization of the supply chain from producer to consumer.


        To participate in growing formal and export markets, producers need access to well-organized post-
        harvest chains that can handle the processing and marketing requirements. Agricultural processors and
        traders, on the other hand, face increasing pressures to certify the safety of production practices (such as
        to avoid pesticide residues in the final product), exact quality attributes, and on-time deliveries. They
        also must rely on a large number of independent small farmers to supply these attributes in a reliable
        and timely manner. Vertical integration, contract farming, and traders’ associations can address these
        problems by reducing the moral hazard of non-compliance by any one farmer, which can compromise a
        much larger marketing chain. Informed policies and a conducive regulatory environment increase the
        incentives for agro-processors to use the produce of small-scale farmers as inputs, and improve their
        capacity to meet the product attributes required in a rapidly modernizing agricultural marketplace.


        Ultimately, to stay in business small-scale farmers will need to become more integrated with upstream
        processing of their produce. The ultimate objective is to understand how best to integrate small-scale
        farmers with formal urban and export markets by focusing on the post-farm aspects of the supply chain
        and the constraints imposed upon processors by changing urban and international markets.


        To achieve this ultimate objective one needs firstly to look at past successes and challenges regarding
        settlement projects in various countries and what can be learnt from them.
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1.5.2   Successes and challenges


        From the outset it should be understood that not all landless individuals necessarily want to farm. There
        is a distinction between landowners and farmers. Landowners own land while farmers use the land
        resource to generate extra income.


        There have been a number of successes and challenges in the past. The following are the characteristics
        of the resettlement programs from seven select countries.

CHARACTERISTICS OF RESETTLEMENT PROJECTS
Burkina Faso                                       River       valley   resettlement     following
                                                   onchocerciasis clearance
Ethiopia                                           Imperial and post-revolution resettlement
Guatemala                                          Resettlement based on a market-directed
                                                   alternative to land reform
Indonesia                                          Transmigration resettlement (both official and
                                                   spontaneous)
Kenya                                              Irrigated    resettlement    (pre-   and    post-
                                                   independence); dry land resettlement (pre- and
                                                   post-independence); spontaneous resettlement.
Malaysia                                           Official resettlement based on perennial crops
                                                   and creation of employment
Zimbabwe                                           Irrigated    resettlement    (pre-   and    post-
                                                   independence); dry land resettlement (post-
                                                   independence); spontaneous resettlement


        A number of links between core characteristics of resettlement and specific outcomes appear to be fairly
        well established from the above resettlement programs. An understanding of these links is useful for
        avoiding costly mistakes in the initial design and establishment of settlements. The available literature
        offers few clear guidelines for specific additional action, or their sequencing, which would assist
        settlements in their long-term development. The main lessons to be learnt out of the projects that where
        carried out in the above seven countries are that:


        -   Directed schemes are designed on the premise that 100 per cent of settlers will or should be
            successful. Such outcomes never materialize. Instead, schemes should be designed with the
            flexibility to anticipate that some settlers will leave because of failure, or for other reasons.
            Therefore constraints on sale, leasing and other forms of land reallocation should not be imposed
            since they create idle land and other inefficiencies.
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        -   The assumption, in many cases, has been that every element in resettlement programs must be
            provided to the settlers, and usually before they arrive. Very little research has been done on the
            sequence of activities, however, or on the minimum level of public sector investment needed to
            generate sufficient private and community investment response. The elements of a minimum public
            sector package appear to include: safe water, roads, and relatively good land, extension, and
            subsistence allowances. There is little evidence, however, about the need for the provision of
            education and housing.


        -   The capacity of settlers to generate capital has often been seriously underestimated.


        -   Settlements will be more successful if farm sizes are adjusted to agricultural skills, experience, the
            family labour force, and the capital available to the settler families. Higher educational levels of
            settlers will further enhance outcomes.


        -   Land rights must be clearly defined as ownerships or long-term leases, and settlers should be
            allowed to sell or rent out their land to other settlers.


        -   Some grant finance is required to provide poor settlers with the equity necessary to engage in risky
            own account farming and to repay the remaining credit grants for initial subsistence; technical
            assistance is also required.


        -   Paternalistic constraints on crop choice, technology, marketing or labour market participation are
            either not enforceable or have adverse impacts on settlement success.


        Settlements based on collective co-operatives do not work. Such programs have broken down
        everywhere they have been tried.


1.5.3   Possible approach to the rural village model


        Bearing the above in mind an integrated approach using identified local role players could assist to
        develop the model. The approach of the model revolves around commitment from the supporting
        structures. Without the “buy in” of these role players the implementation of this model will fail.
        Likewise without the acceptance of the model by the participants the program will be ineffectual.


        The functioning of the model relies on the strong commitment of the main role players namely the
        Amajuba Agricultural Center (ACC) and the Department of Agriculture (DOA) and Environmental
        Affairs, the banking sector, the commercial farming sector and community structures. The model
        recognizes that not all participants want to farm therefore it is broad-based allowing individualism.
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The broad concept starts with the evaluation of the land area to determine its agricultural potential, so
that proper planning can be done. The social profile of the community needs to be identified so as to
determine those individuals that want to farm and what experience/skills they have. In addition to this a
full evaluation of the community has to be done to determine age structure, present income status,
unemployment and skill/literacy levels etc.


From the land evaluation a proper feasibility study on the various agricultural enterprises that could be
ventured into plus the market potential will have to be done. The identified farmers would have to be
approached to ascertain the avenues in which they would like to venture after the necessary guidance
has been done with them. They would then have to be provided with full skills training in that
enterprise/s that was selected by them by the AAC and the DOA. Certification would be an advantage
for their future.


The practice of the rural village involves bringing the produce in from the primary production and
processing it via value addition through another sector of the community. This produce would then be
passed on through the marketing sector to be sold to the best-identified markets.


However it should be borne in mind that the key proponent for this concept to work is that private title
needs to be given to all individuals, thus perpetuating an ongoing ownership. Freedom of choice is
another pillar on which the model is built; people should be given a choice and helped to understand the
nature of the possible choices that are available so as to make an informed decision.


Skills development in business and financial management, artisan training, computer skills, marketing
and agricultural enterprises need to be developed through the AAC structured training program in
association with the DOA and identified commercial farmers. The Majuba College must also be
involved. The community hall or such like venue could be used by the AAC for interested individuals
who would like to improve their life skills.


A comprehensive business plan for financing should be done in which a grace period for repayment of
the loans should be structured in line with agricultural enterprise production/value addition/marketing
timeframes.


The location of the rural village should be structured so that the village can be supplied with the
necessary services with the agricultural areas located around this node. The rural village needs not be
close structured but could be a spacious one. However a semblance of order needs to be maintained so
that services can be provided.


The output of the rural village will be produce that can be sold for income that can be put back into
individual’s pockets to run their own business section. All services rendered from the production phase
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        through to marketing should be paid for in a structured manner by the individuals concerned as is done
        in a free market system.


        The model relies heavily on the support and training function of the identified role players (DOA, AAC,
        Majuba College and local commercial farmers) to assist individuals that were initially unemployed due
        to lack of goal directed skills. It is envisaged that these individuals should receive local mentorship after
        training (in a form of a pay back period for their training). This could take the form of a commercial
        farmer facilitation program with the trainees if their training has been specifically in the agricultural
        field. A bonus point system could be considered for commercial farmers who participate in this system
        and could assist them with their BEE scoring. Marketers, administrative and artisan trainees could
        form linkages with local businesses in Amajuba District Municipality area. From this could emerge a
        resource pool of individuals that would form part of the BEE initiative for agriculture and related
        fields? After this phase of the training is finished they can be placed via a recruiting agent into the
        broader job market if they so desire. The rural village can thus be used as a springboard for individuals
        to enter the job market.


        The rural village would thus be able to generate income for itself, adding value not only through its
        production component but also through the promotion of skills that are needed for South Africa. Its
        objective should be to work towards quality through skills development so that small-scale farmers can
        stay in business by becoming more integrated with upstream processing of their produce.


1.5.4   Pilot area location


        It is recommended that an area be given consideration for starting a pilot project of this nature. The area
        must be deemed agriculturally suitable from initial observations, although further field investigations
        will be necessary.


1.6     Proposed projects

1.6.1   Irrigation projects

        It is proposed to consider the establishment of maximum 5700 ha of the full potential of 10300
        ha irrigation, as it is not economically viable at this stage to develop the full area, due to the
        high capital cost of the required additional dams. It is however important to establish the
        location of the 4600 ha that will remain. This area should be reserved for possible future
        irrigation if the economic viability improves. Lands suitable for irrigation will most likely be
        suitable for dry land production. Utilizing it for dry land production at this stage could reserve
        these areas. This issue should be facilitated with the land owners to“ buy in” and to reserve
        these lands.
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        The proposed 5700 ha irrigation schemes should be located downstream of the proposed Ncandu,
        Horn and Upper Buffalo dams, along the Ncandu river, Horn river, Ngagane river downstream of
        the Ntshingwayo dam and Buffalo river, in a bandwidth of approximately 2 km on either side of
        the rivers and not higher than approximately 60 m above the water level in the rivers. The
        maximum area along the Horn/Ngagane Rivers up to the Ngagane’s confluence with the Buffalo River
        should be 1400 ha. The maximum area along the Ncandu River up to the Buffalo confluence should be
        1300 ha (if the water is not transferred). The remaining 3000 ha could be anywhere along the Buffalo
        river, downstream of the proposed upper Buffalo river dam. The closer the areas are located to the dams
        the lower the conveyance losses will be. At the same token the previously neglected areas around
        Madadeni should receive serious attention.


        The remaining 4600 ha should be located as follows: 700 ha along the Blood river downstream of
        the proposed Blood river dam/s. 400 ha downstream of the proposed Mzinyashana dam (1600 ha
        outside the Amajuba district) and 3500 ha downstream of the proposed Ngogo River dams along
        the Ngogo River and Buffalo River (over and above the 3000 ha as discussed in the previous
        paragraph)


        Higher elevations and further distances from the rivers should only be considered for investigation in
        the event that 10300 ha cannot be found.


        The total cost to develop 5700ha would be approximately R 711M for the dragline irrigation systems
        including subsurface drainage and a further R233M for the selected dams (walls only). Total R 944M.
        It is shown previously that a capital subsidy of at least 90 % would be required for irrigation
        infrastructure and at least 30% for the proposed dams to make irrigation economically feasible for the
        farmer. It will most likely not be possible for poor farmers to get started if the initial input costs are not
        subsidized or funded by financial institutions. The average input cost for a 5700 ha irrigation scheme is
        estimated to be R 107 M. The total initial investment required, is thus estimated to be R 1051 M.


1.6.2   Dry land projects


        Priority 1


        Dry lands that should be reserved for possible future irrigation comprise 4600 ha, as discussed above. It
        is estimated that approximately 10000 ha of dry land that is not utilized fully at present could be
        suitable for ploughing and requires reviving. These areas are mostly situated in the black owned areas
        around Madadeni and Ozisweni. The estimated cost to provide roads, storm water control measures
        and fencing for the mentioned 4600 ha, is R 46 M. It will most likely not be possible for poor farmers to
        get started if the initial input costs are not subsidized or funded by financial institutions. The average
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        input cost for a 4600 ha dry land scheme is estimated to be R 16,3 M. The total initial investment
        required, is thus estimated to be R 62.3 M.


        Priority 2.
        The estimated cost to provide roads, storm water control measures and fencing for the remaining
        5400ha, is R54M. It will most likely not be possible for poor farmers to get started if the initial input
        costs are not subsidized or funded by financial institutions. The average input cost for a 5400 ha dry
        land scheme is estimated to be R 19M. The total initial investment required, is thus estimated to be
        R 73M.




1.6.3   Stock Farming Projects

        There is approximately 30 000 ha of suitable land in the area around Madadeni, which is not suitable
        for dry land or irrigation purposes, which require fencing, dip tanks and access roads to improve the
        meat/milk yield.


        The estimated cost to provide fencing, dip tanks and roads for the mentioned 20 000ha, is R42M.


        As discussed in detail before, the social issues around stock needs to be addressed in order to improve
        the present low yield. The whole unsatisfactory present grazing system needs to be addressed as well.
        An extensive social facilitation and training program needs to be established. It is estimated that this
        would cost approximately R 300 000 initially and thereafter R 150 000 per year.




        Recommendation:
       Conduct a survey of the proposed areas and compile a needs analysis for the required infrastructure.
       Compile generic business plans for projects on the identified available land with recommendations on
        extension and training needs.
       Develop terms of reference for the appointment of specialists to mentor and assist future farmers.


1.6.4   Intensive Farming

1.6.4.1 Piggeries

        Piggeries are very capital intensive and require fulltime skilled attention and proper management. It also
        requires a substantial bank overdraft facility or cash upfront, for the running cost until breakeven point,
        to get started. It may take up to approximately three years to break-even. It is most likely not possible
        for poor farmers to get off the ground with a piggery project if the initial input costs are not subsidized.
                                                         15

       A typical 100 sow unit will cost approximately R 4 500 000 and requires an initial input cost
       investment of R 600 000, thus a total of R 5,1M.


1.6.4.2 Poultry

       Poultry projects are not very capital intensive, but require fulltime skilled attention and proper
       management. It also requires a substantial bank overdraft facility or cash upfront, for the running cost
       until breakeven point, to get started. It is most likely not possible for poor farmers to get off the ground
       with a poultry project if the initial input costs are not subsidized.


       A typical 10 000 bird unit will cost approximately R 1 500 000 and requires an initial
       input cost investment of R 750 000, thus a total of R 2,25M.




1.6.4.3 Dairies


       The Amajuba District had a thriving dairy industry until a few years ago when the major support
       structure moved its operations away. The area lends itself to stock farming and as such will be ideal to
       reinvest in dairy farming. Interest from overseas investors can ensure the successful redevelopment of
       this industry.


       Dairy projects are very capital intensive, and require fulltime skilled attention and proper management.
       It also requires a substantial bank overdraft facility or cash upfront, for the running cost until breakeven
       point, to get started. It is most likely not possible for poor farmers to get off the ground with a dairy
       project if the initial input costs are not subsidized. It is possible to establish a dairy without any own
       produced food, but for this study is sis assumed that at least 30 ha irrigated pastures and 50 ha dry land
       maize and pastures would be established per 100-cow unit.


       A typical 10 0 cow unit including irrigation and dry land development will cost approximately
       R3,2M and requires an initial input cost investment of R 1,7M, thus a total of R 4,9M.


   1.6.4.4 Feedlots


       The Amajuba District is ideal for livestock farming and this should be further developed. The
       establishment of feedlots should be encouraged. The Department of Agriculture and Environmental
       Affairs has already invested in the establishment of feedlots for emerging farmers in the Newcastle
       area.
       Feedlot projects could be very capital intensive in the case where the required infrastructure is
       established to a high standard and to make it less labour intensive. This would make a feedlot project
                                                        16

        unfeasible from a benefit/cost perspective. In order to make a feedlot project feasible from a benefit/cost
        perspective, only the absolute minimum infrastructure could be provided and cost effective solutions
        should be implemented. Obviously, if financiers who are not concerned with the benefit/cost ratio
        finance the feedlot and the capital cost could be subsidized, it would make sense to provide the best
        facilities possible.


        A typical 400 beast unit with rudimentary facilities will cost approximately R 1 000 000 and
        requires an initial input cost investment of R 800 000, thus a total of R 1,8M.

1.6.5   Other Projects for consideration


       Essential oils – the Amajuba District Municipality area has the available soils necessary for the
        successful cultivation of herbs and plants necessary for this industry.
       Vegetable production – the development of tunnel farming with the assistance of AAC and Majuba
        College must be promoted and assistance is vital for the successful development and transformation of
        emerging farmers and entrepreneurs.
       Bio-diesel – there is a big interest in the development of the bio-diesel industry and this area with its
        good potential for the successful cultivation of soybeans has great potential. This will further have the
        advantage of developing the irrigation potential of the area by assuring the availability of a market. The
        oilcake from the process is ideal feed for dairy and other cattle.
       Barley production – South African Breweries has been active in the past in attempting to establish
        barley as a crop in this area. The potential still exists to develop the irrigation potential to ensure
        profitable crops.
       Fruit and nut cultivation. These have very lucrative markets and can be successfully developed in
        certain areas as shown on the maps. Value adding projects are also possible.
       Fertilizer
       Cabbage                  Maps 091; 094; 097
       Dry beans                Map 100
       Potato                   Maps 103; 106; 109
       Peanut                   Maps 112; 115
       Soyabean                 Maps 118; 121
       Walnuts                  Map 124
       Pecan nuts               Map 127
       Maize                    Maps 130; 133
       Sorghum                  Map 136
       Oats                     Map 139
       Wheat                    Map 145
       Barley                   Map 148
       Grapes                   Map 151
                                                          17

         Cherry                   Map 154
         Plums and prunes         Map 157
         Lemon                    Map 160
         Olive                    Map 163
         Herbs                    Maps 166; 169; 172; 175
         Cut flowers              Map 196


1.7       Prioritization

          In order to establish the most economical land use plan it is essential to consider possible farming
          enterprises that require large portions of land. For this reason, intensive farming and forestation are not
          considered for establishing the most economic land use plan on a macro scale. Obviously adequate
          provisions have to be made for urbanization and nature conservation. It is of the utmost importance that
          urbanization is controlled/planned in such a way that it does not use large portions of the very land the
          community requires to make a living from.


         From the preliminary economical analysis it is obvious that the highest income per ha of land
          could be obtained with intensive farming and then irrigation, providing the capital cost is
          subsidized. In the case of irrigation, it is only possible when two or more crops can be harvested
          from the same land and that at least one of the crops have to be vegetables or a high-income crop. High-
          income crops, such as vegetables, are generally associated with high input costs with associated high
          risk. Marketing and pricing is always a concern with perishable crops and value adding should be
          considered to increase the potential to store produce in order to obtain better prices. Approximately
          5700 ha should be reserved for additional irrigation. These areas will be along the Ngagane, Ncandu
          and Buffalo Rivers downstream of the proposed, Horn, Ncandu and Upper Buffalo River dams. It
          should be situated at elevations preferably not higher than 60 m vertical from the rivers and further than
          approximately 2 km from the mentioned rivers on the best irrigable soil. Economic access to major
          roads should also be considered.


         The third best enterprise utilizing major portions of land is dry land cultivation. The model used for this
          exercise relies heavily on a reasonable dry-bean production. Dry beans have been selected specifically
          with the previously neglected areas in mind, as it is labour intensive. If packed in bags, prices of
          between R 7/kg-R 8/kg could be obtained (double the price for bulk) however; theft may be a major
          concern and needs to be addressed. Selection criteria should include economic access to major roads.


         The fourth best enterprise utilizing major portions of land is stock farming. The income per ha is the
          lowest with the input costs and risk also the lowest (accept for theft). The area that requires upgrading in
          terms of infrastructure is in the previously neglected areas east of Madadeni.
                                                           18

         Obviously intensive farming may be practiced anywhere since it does not take up large portions of land.
          This sector needs to be investigated further.


         The estimated un-inflated total capital and initial input costs for the following enterprises are as follows:


          1 x 10 000 bird poultry unit      :         R 2.3 M
          1x 100 cow dairy unit             :         R 4,9 M
          1x 100 sows piggery               :         R 5,1 M
          1x 400 beast feedlot              :         R 1,8 M


          It is recommended that at least 5 of each project be implemented over a 10-year period. The
          estimated total un-inflated total capital and initial input cost is R 71 M.

1.8       10 year plan-cash flow projection

          The cash-flow projection here below has been done assuming the proposed projects as discussed above
          will be implemented over a ten-year period. An inflation rate of 5% per year has been used to escalate
          the costs as estimated for the year 2005.




          DESCRIPTION             2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
          Ncandu dam                xx Xxxxx xx
                                     5     29   17
          Horn dam                        xx xxxxx xx
                                           11   31    23
          Upper Buffalo dam                              xx xxxxx xxxxx xx
                                                         18    51    56    42
          5700 ha irrigation      xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx
                                    54     57   60    63 66    69    72 169 213 248   26
          10 000 ha dryland       xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx
                                     5      5     6   12 12    13    13    28 44  42   5
          30 000 ha stock         xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx
                                     2      2     2    5  5      5     8    8  9    3  2
          500 cow dairy           xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx
                                            2     3    2  4      3     4    3  4    3  2
          50 000 bird poultry     xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx
                                     1      1     1    1  1      1     1    1  1    3  2
          500 sow piggery         xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx
                                     2      3     2    3  2      3     4    3  4    3  2
          2000 beast feedlot      xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx xxxx
                                     1      1     1    1  1      1     1    1  1    0  0

          CASHFLOW (R M)            70    111    122      110   109   145    161 256 278 303      37
          CUMULATIVE(R M)           72    183    306      416   525   671    831 1087 1365 1668 1705
                                              19




TUE 5/10/11 10:36:08 AM
\\FUJITECH\C-DATA\MYDOCU~1\AMAJUBA\PROG.PRJ                               REVISION 00
                        2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

            Name
Ncandu dam
Horn dam
Upper Buffalo dam
5700 ha irrigation
10000 ha dryland
30000 ha stock
500 cow dairy
50000 bird poultry
500 sow piggery
2000 beast feedlot




                              Critical Bars        Normal Bars           Milestones
                                                                          20

2.         AGRICULTURAL RELATED RESOURCES AND ISSUES

2.1        Population profile

           The following salient figures are provided as a background, in order to conclude the
           development plan in a holistic manner.

           Table 2.1.1 - Population 2001 Census figures.

                                                                                                                                       DM25 -
                                 KZ252 - Newcastle                   KZ253 - Utrecht               KZ254 - Dannhauser
                                                                                                                                       Amajuba
Population Group               Persons          % of District     Persons         % of District   Persons          % of District          Persons
Black African                         302578             70%              29265            7%          99757                 23%             431600
Coloured                                2244             74%                602           20%            193                  6%               3039
Indian or Asian                        10129             85%                 72            1%           1725                 14%              11926
White                                  18030             84%               2338           11%           1104                  5%              21472
Total Population                      332981             71%              32277            7%         102779                 22%             468037




           Table 2.1.2 - AGE 20+, HIGHEST LEVEL OF SCHOOLING (2001)
                                                                                                                                       DM25 -
                                 KZ252 - Newcastle                   KZ253 - Utrecht               KZ254 - Dannhauser
                                                                                                                                       Amajuba
Highest level of education Persons             % of District    Persons           % of District Persons           % of District        Persons
No Schooling                           23978             61%              4500            11%             10906              28%                 39384
Some Primary                           29376             65%              5225            12%             10713              24%                 45314
Complete Primary                       11013             71%              1238              8%            3363               22%                 15614
Some Secondary                         58497             76%              4120              5%            13959              18%                 76576
Grade 12 / Standard 10                 42208             82%              1976              4%            7180               14%                 51364
Higher/Tertiary Education              14704             86%               792              5%            1618                    9%             17114
Total Population                      179776             73%              17851             7%            47739              19%             245366




           Table 2.1.3 – ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE POPULATION (2001)


                                                                                                                                       DM25 -
                                 KZ252 - Newcastle                   KZ253 - Utrecht               KZ254 - Dannhauser
                                                                                                                                       Amajuba

Labour Market Status        Persons            % of District    Persons           % of District Persons           % of District        Persons

Employed                               57285             79%              6438              9%            8609               12%                 72332
Unemployed                             67523             75%              4165              5%            17817              20%                 89505
Not economically active                83579             68%              8885              7%            30294              25%             122758
Total labour force                    124808             77%              10603             7%            26426              16%             161837
Total Population                      333195             75%              30091             7%            83146              19%             446432
                                                             21

         Table 2.1.4 - Number of farming units
         and gross farming income, 2002
                                          Gross farming
                        Farming units
          PROVINCE                           income
                           Number             R '000
         KwaZulu-
                                 4,038           6,429,273
         Natal
         South Africa           45,818        53,329,052




Table 2.1.5 - Gross farming income by main
division
                                                                          Animals & animal
                            Field crops                Horticulture                               Other products
      PROVINCE                                                                 products
                        R '000     % of total       R '000    % of total  R '000    % of total R '000 % of total
KwaZulu-Natal            2,773,151        16.8        614,458         4.2 2,615,346       12.3 426,317         30.4
South Africa            16,476,933      100.0      14,228,909      100.0 21,222,618      100.0 1,400,592      100.0




Table 2.1.6 - Number of farming units and
expenditure, 2002
                                               Expenditure
                        Farming units                                Total
      PROVINCE                            Current        Capital
                           Number                 R '000            R '000
KwaZulu-Natal                   4,038      4,649,703       407,744 5,057,447
South Africa                  45,818      42,092,135     2,946,773 45,038,908




2.2      Livestock profile
         See also Section 3.4 GRAZING/LIVESTOCK.
         When the long-term average of the data up to 1994 is compared with the census of 2004, there is not a
         great difference in the total amount of large stock units (AU’s) that is being accounted for in the
         Amajuba District Municipality area.

         The Madadeni and Osizweni traditional area falls within both the Newcastle and Dannhauser
         municipalities and the animal numbers have been divided according to area between the two
         municipalities to give a more accurate figure.

         The livestock profile for Amajuba area has been done and is presented below. The profile is based on
         historical data. The information presented here was obtained from STATSA and Department of
         Agriculture Veterinary Services. The figures are suspect and must be used with circumspection.
                                                  22



   2.2.1 Cattle numbers

Table 2.2.1.1 – KZ252 – Newcastle

                                   NEWCASTLE
                               CATTLE NUMBERS                        AMAJUBA

                     COMMERCIAL      COMMUNAL                      Total
                                                       AU's                      AU's
                       FARMERS        FARMERS                     animals

              1986          57,820       10,902         51,542      232,371    174278.3
              1987          57,365        8,789         49,616      224,422    168316.5
              1988          57,063        9,806         50,152      225,595    169196.3
              1989          40,763        8,380         36,857      204,164      153123
              1990          41,879        6,733         36,459      220,489    165366.8
              1991          45,437        7,948         40,039      196,756      147567
              1992          45,637        4,735         37,779      205,246    153934.5
              1993          33,026        5,797         29,117      163,842    122881.5
              1994          34,291        4,325         28,962      156,161    117120.8
Average '86-'94             45,920        7,491         40,058      203,227     152,421
              1998
              2003
              2004          53,497        1,684         40,123       99,779    74834.06




Table 2.2.1.2 – KZ253 – Utrecht

                                 UTRECHT
                             CATTLE NUMBERS                           AMAJUBA
                     COMMERCIAL COMMUNAL                           Total
                                                   AU's                     AU's
                      FARMERS     FARMERS                        animals
          1986           103,298      12,560           86,894     232,371 174278.25
          1987            93,728      17,299           83,270     224,422  168316.5
          1988            98,540      14,234           84,581     225,595 169196.25
          1989            94,676      13,634           81,233     204,164    153123
          1990           113,822                       85,367     220,489 165366.75
          1991            79,110                       59,333     196,756    147567
          1992           105,560                       79,170     205,246  153934.5
          1993            73,304                       54,978     163,842  122881.5
          1994            73,683                       55,262     156,161 117120.75
Average '86-'94           92,858      14,432           74,454     203,227   152,421
          1998            30,847
          2003                         5,257            3,943
          2004            15,016                       11,262     99,779      74834.063
                                                 23



Table 2.2.1.3 – KZ254 – Dannhauser

                                 DANNHAUSER
                              CATTLE NUMBERS                        AMAJUBA
                     COMMERCIAL   COMMUNAL                       Total
                                                      AU's                AU's
                      FARMERS      FARMERS                      animals
          1986            19,998        27,793        35,843    232,371 174278.3
          1987            19,955        27,286        35,431    224,422 168316.5
          1988            19,599        26,353        34,464    225,595 169196.3
          1989            20,015        26,696        35,033    204,164   153123
          1990            19,898        38,157        43,541    220,489 165366.8
          1991            19,221        45,040        48,196    196,756   147567
          1992            22,484        26,830        36,986    205,246 153934.5
          1993            18,862        32,853        38,786    163,842 122881.5
          1994            19,351        24,511        32,897    156,161 117120.8
Average '86-
                           19,931       30,613        37,909    203,227      152,421
'94
          1998             31,227
          2003                           1,910         1,433
          2004             20,041        9,541        15,031     99,779   74834.06




   2.2.2 Sheep numbers

       Table 2.2.2.1 – KZ252 – Newcastle


                                   NEWCASTLE
                                SHEEP NUMBERS                       AMAJUBA
                      COMMERCIAL COMMUNAL                         Total
                                                      AU's                   AU's
                        FARMERS     FARMERS                      animals
              1986          51,687       1,523          7,095      295,146  39352.8
              1987          46,486       1,381          6,382      307,090 40945.33
              1988          47,963       1,520          6,598      252,357  33647.6
              1989          49,273       1,520          6,772      255,696  34092.8
              1990          41,013       1,678          5,692      296,689 39558.53
              1991          51,584       2,045          7,151      259,619 34615.87
              1992          61,948       2,001          8,527      255,534  34071.2
              1993          51,479       1,964          7,126      251,408 33521.07
              1994          48,322       1,770          6,679      237,493 31665.73
Average '86-'94             49,973       1,711          6,891      267,892   35,719
              1998
              2003
              2004           12,209        495          1,628       56,670       7556
                                                24



      Table 2.2.2.2 – KZ253 – Utrecht

                              UTRECHT
                           SHEEP NUMBERS                       AMAJUBA
                  COMMERCIAL COMMUNAL                            Total
                                                 AU's                        AU's
                   FARMERS     FARMERS                          animals
          1986        200,880                        26,784      295,146     39352.8
          1987        216,868                        28,916      307,090   40945.333
          1988        178,512                        23,802      252,357     33647.6
          1989        178,961                        23,861      255,696     34092.8
          1990        224,976                        29,997      296,689   39558.533
          1991        165,438                        22,058      259,619   34615.867
          1992        149,099                        19,880      255,534     34071.2
          1993        156,688                        20,892      251,408   33521.067
          1994        149,963                        19,995      237,493   31665.733
Average '86-'94       180,154                        24,021      267,892      35,719
          1998         42,657
          2003            907                           121
          2004         35,266                         4,702       56,670       7556




      Table 2.2.2.3 – KZ254 – Dannhauser

                               DANNHAUSER
                            SHEEP NUMBERS                      AMAJUBA
                  COMMERCIAL    COMMUNAL                        Total
                                                     AU's                AU's
                   FARMERS       FARMERS                       animals
          1986         32,427         8,629            5,474   295,146  39352.8
          1987         34,531         7,824            5,647   307,090 40945.33
          1988         15,753         8,609            3,248   252,357  33647.6
          1989         17,333         8,609            3,459   255,696  34092.8
          1990         19,510         9,512            3,870   296,689 39558.53
          1991         28,966        11,586            5,407   259,619 34615.87
          1992         31,148        11,338            5,665   255,534  34071.2
          1993         30,148        11,129            5,504   251,408 33521.07
          1994         27,413        10,025            4,992   237,493 31665.73
Average '86-
                        26,359          9,696          4,807    267,892    35,719
'94
          1998          12,071
          2003             287                           38
          2004           5,897          2,803           786      56,670      7556
                                                 25



   2.2.3 Goat numbers

       Table 2.2.3.1 – KZ252 – Newcastle


                                  NEWCASTLE
                               GOAT NUMBERS                          AMAJUBA
                     COMMERCIAL COMMUNAL                           Total
                                                      AU's                    AU's
                       FARMERS     FARMERS                        animals
              1986          4,534         55             612         31,370 4182.667
              1987          4,006        873             651         35,810 4774.667
              1988          6,011        738             900         27,882   3717.6
              1989          5,040        738             770         26,422 3522.933
              1990          3,566        506             543         26,427   3523.6
              1991          3,214        836             540         19,856 2647.467
              1992          3,320      1,038             581         24,185 3224.667
              1993          1,685      1,052             365         18,409 2454.533
              1994          1,591        864             327         16,346 2179.467
Average '86-'94             3,663        744             588         25,190    3,359
              1998
              2003
              2004          9,879          327          1,317       13,895   1852.667




       Table 2.2.3.2 – KZ253 – Utrecht

                                 UTRECHT
                              GOAT NUMBERS                      AMAJUBA
                     COMMERCIAL COMMUNAL                          Total
                                                  AU's                         AU's
                      FARMERS     FARMERS                        animals
          1986            22,291                      2,972        31,370    4182.6667
          1987            21,285                      2,838        35,810    4774.6667
          1988            15,798                      2,106        27,882       3717.6
          1989            15,096                      2,013        26,422    3522.9333
          1990            16,649                      2,220        26,427       3523.6
          1991             9,695                      1,293        19,856    2647.4667
          1992            11,300                      1,507        24,185    3224.6667
          1993             7,513                      1,002        18,409    2454.5333
          1994             6,891                        919        16,346    2179.4667
Average '86-'94           14,058                      1,874        25,190        3,359
          1998             2,065
          2003             1,647                        220
          2004               360                         48        13,895    1852.6667
                                                     26



      Table 2.2.3.3 – KZ254 – Dannhauser

                             DANNHAUSER
                           GOAT NUMBERS                             AMAJUBA
                 COMMERCIAL   COMMUNAL                               Total
                                                          AU's                AU's
                  FARMERS      FARMERS                              animals
          1986         4,178          312                     599    31,370 4182.667
          1987         4,700        4,946                   1,286    35,810 4774.667
          1988         1,153        4,182                     711    27,882   3717.6
          1989         1,366         4182                     740    26,422 3522.933
          1990         1,051        4,655                     761    26,427   3523.6
          1991         1,375        4,736                     815    19,856 2647.467
          1992         2,648        5,879                   1,137    24,185 3224.667
          1993         2,200        5,959                   1,088    18,409 2454.533
          1994         2,108        4,892                     933    16,346 2179.467
Average '86-
                          2,309              4,416           897     25,190      3,359
'94
          1998            4,647
          2003               85                               11
          2004            1,476              1,853           197     13,895   1852.667




  2.2.4 Animal unit (au) averages

      Table 2.2.4.1 – KZ252 – Newcastle

                            NEWCASTLE                                   AMAJUBA
                  COMMERCIAL COMMUNAL                                 Total
                                                          AU's                AU's
                   FARMERS    FARMERS                                animals
AU's From avg.       N/A        N/A                       47,537       N/A   191,498
AU's From 2004       N/A        N/A                       43,068       N/A    84,243



      An interpreted number of AU’s in the Newcastle area can be estimated at 45 000.

      From the grazing capacity map, the total number of AU’s that can be carried in this area is 52 042.

      Depending on the accuracy of the animal numbers, there should be grazing available for an additional
      3800 AU’s in the Newcastle municipality district.




      Table 2.2.4.2 – KZ253 – Utrecht
                           NEWCASTLE                                    AMAJUBA
                 COMMERCIAL COMMUNAL                                 Total
                                                      AU's                    AU's
                  FARMERS    FARMERS                                animals
AU's From avg.                                        100,349                191,498
AU's From 2004                                         16,012                 84,243

      Taking these into account the amount of LSU’s in the Utrecht area could rather be taken as 66 000.
      From the grazing capacity map, the total amount of LSU’s that can be carried in this area is 103 300.
                                                        27

          Depending on the accuracy of the animal numbers, there should be grazing available for an additional
          37 000 LSU’s in the Utrecht municipality district.


          Table 2.2.4.3 – KZ254 – Dannhauser

                                   NEWCASTLE                              AMAJUBA
                    COMMERCIAL         COMMUNAL                        Total
                                                         AU's                    AU's
                     FARMERS            FARMERS                       animals
 AU's From avg.                                           43,612                191,498
 AU's From
                                                          16,014                 84,243
 2004

          The interpreted amount of LSU’s in the Dannhauser area then amounts to 36 766.

          From the grazing capacity map, the total amount of LSU’s that can be carried in this area is 38 254.

          Depending on the accuracy of the animal numbers, there should be grazing available for an additional 1

          480 LSU’s in the Dannhauser municipality district.



2.3      WATER AVAILABILITY, SOURCES AND BALANCE


2.3.1     Major rivers and existing dams: general description
        2.3.1.1   KZ252 – Newcastle
          The Slang river with the Zaaihoek dam


          The Slang River is the first major tributary of the Buffalo River, joining the Buffalo River 4 km east of
          Volksrust. Rising at 2275mMSL south of Wakkerstroom on the high Balelesberg-Skurweberg Plateau,
          the Slang River flows westerly - a unique feature in Natal - to the Zaaihoek dam, from where water is
          pumped to the Majuba coal-fired power station at a rate of 55 Mm³/annum. The yield of the Zaaihoek
          dam according to White Paper WPE 86, is 47Mm³/annum. The excess water is allocated to the Vaal
          system (1.3.1). The Zaaihoek dam is situated at approximate coordinates 30°03 East; 27°26 South. Refer
          to 1:50 000 map 2730AC. Only water for ecological purposes and for irrigators at an agreed pattern is
          generally released from this dam on a continuous basis. In emergency situations, depending on the
          urgency of supply to the Vaal system, water may be released into the Buffalo river system.


          The Buffalo River with the Mahawane dam


          The Buffalo River rises in the Transvaal, 4 km north of Volksrust on Verkykkop at 2047mMSL and has
          in its headwall erosion, captured and diverted the course of the Slang River in a narrow gorge 4km east
          of Charlestown. The Mahawane dam, situated in a tributary of the Buffalo river, just north of Volksrust,
                                                                (1.3.1)
          with capacity of 2,1 Mm³, supply water to Volksrust         . No irrigation is possible from this dam. The
                                                28

domestic water supply to Volksrust/Charlstown and Wakkerstroom may be supplemented from the
Zaaihoek dam.


Hereafter the flow is southerly, collecting east-flowing drainage from the Drakensberg range as well as
streams draining west from the Balelesberg.


A raw water pump station for domestic purposes is situated on the Utrecht-Osizweni road.


The buffalo river bisects the southeastern boundary of the Amajuba district 10 km northwest of the R33
(Vryheid-Dundee road) near Tayside. A raw water pump station to supplement the domestic/industrial
requirement of Dundee and surrounding towns is situated on the Buffalo River, near the Vryheid-
Dundee road.


The Ncandu River with the Amcor dam


The Ncandu River rises at 1994mMSL near Die Ark on the Normandien Pass, flows easterly and then
northerly to join the Ngagane River east of Newcastle. The Amcor dam, situated in Newcastle, with
capacity estimated at 720 000 m³, is relatively small (1.3.1) in relation to the mean annual runoff (MAR)
and will therefore not have a long life. No irrigation is possible from this dam as it is badly silted up at
this stage and is used for recreational and environmental purposes only.


The Ngagane River with the Ntshingwayo and Mfushane dams


The Ngagane River rises at 1993mMSL near Die Ark on the Normandien Pass on the opposite side of
the watershed of the Ncandu River. The Ntshingwayo Dam captures the flow of the river south of
Newcastle. The capacity of the dam is 194 Mm³ with an available reserve yield of 21 Mm³/annum (1.3.3),
which should be reserved for the expected domestic and industrial growth of the supply area of between
11 and 39 Mm³ over the next 20 years (1.3.3) if other dams are not constructed in the demand area not
taking account of the associated increase in return flow. The Ncandu River joins northwest of Madadeni
from where the Ngangane River flows in an easterly direction to join the Buffalo River just north of
Madadeni. The Mfushane dam is a relative small dam in a tributary to the Ngagane River, near
Durnacol. No further irrigation is possible from this dam. Domestic water for Durnacol and Dannhauser
is supplied from the Ntshingwayo dam.


The Horn River
The Horn River rises at approximately 1800mMSL north of the Normandien Pass, between the
Ncandu and Ngagane rivers. The Horn River joins the Ngangane River near Ballengeich.
Allegedly, the water quality of the Horn River is not very good for irrigation purposes. This
                                               29

 and the effect that a dam will have on the water quality, needs to be investigated before major
 costs are incurred.
2.3.1.2 KZ253 – Utrecht
 The Slang river with the Zaaihoek dam


 The Slang river is the first major tributary of the Buffalo river, joining the Buffalo river 4 km
 east of Volksrust. Rising at 2275mMSL south of Wakkerstroom on the high Balelesberg-
 Skurweberg Plateau, the Slang River flows westerly - a unique feature in Natal - to the
 Zaaihoek dam, from where water is pumped to the Majuba coal-fired power station at a rate of
 55 Mm³/annum. The yield of the Zaaihoek dam according to White Paper WPE 86, is
                                                                            (1.3.1)
 61Mm³/annum. The excess water is allocated to the Vaal system                        . The Zaaihoek dam is
 situated at approximate coordinates 30°03 East; 27°26 South. Refer to 1:50 000 map 2730AC.
 Only water for ecological purposes is generally released from this dam on a continuous basis.
 In emergency situations, depending on the urgency of supply to the Vaal system, water may be
 released into the Buffalo river system.


 The Buffalo River with the Mahawane dam


 The Buffalo River rises in the Transvaal, 4 km north of Volksrust on Verkykkop at 2047mMSL and has
 in its headwall erosion, captured and diverted the course of the Slang River in a narrow gorge 4km east
 of Charlestown. The Mahawane dam, situated in a tributary of the Buffalo river, just north of Volksrust,
                                                       (1.3.1)
 with capacity of 2,1 Mm³, supply water to Volksrust         . No irrigation is possible from this dam. The
 domestic water supply to Volksrust/Charlstown and Wakkerstroom may be supplemented from the
 Zaaihoek dam.


 Hereafter the flow is southerly, collecting east-flowing drainage from the Drakensberg range as well as
 streams draining west from the Balelesberg.


 A raw water pump station for domestic purposes is situated on the Utrecht-Osizweni road.


 The buffalo river bisects the southeastern boundary of the Amajuba district 10 km northwest of the R33
 (Vryheid-Dundee road) near Tayside. A raw water pump station to supplement the domestic/industrial
 requirement of Dundee and surrounding towns is situated on the Buffalo River, near the Vryheid-
 Dundee road.


 The Blood River with the Blood river dam
                                                30

 The Blood River rises at Aasvoëlkrans (1681mMSL) near the headwaters of the White Umfolozi River,
 17 km west of Vryheid (1.3.1). A meandering southerly course forming the northern boundary of the
 Amajuba district in the vicinity of Bloodriver railway station. The Amajuba district boundary veers
 away from the Blood river in a westerly direction, some 10km southeast of the R 33 (Vryheid-Dundee
 road) The Blood river joins the Buffalo river approximately 25 km east of Dundee. A fairly large
 private earth dam captures the water just downstream of the Dundee-Vryheid road.


 Pongola river


 Rising at approximately 2200mMSL southeast of Wakkerstroom in the Donkerhoek/Nauwhoek vally,
 the Pongola River flows easterly, crossing the Amajuba boundary south-west of Luneburg, and passing
 PaulPietersburg on the north, forming the northern boundary of KwaZulu-Natal. The Pongola poort
 dam at Jozini captures the flow of the river. The water is used extensively around Pongola, mainly for
 the growing of sugarcane. Any new applications for water will only be considered when DWAF has
 completed a major study to establish the “reserve”. The Pandana and Tsakwane rivers are tributaries of
 the Pongola River and the same ruling therefore applies.
 Bivane river


 The Bivane river rises due North of Utrech at Bivaanspoort, south of the Pongola river. The Bivane
 River crosses the Amajuba boundary just west of the Vryheid-Paul Pietersburg road. The water of the
 Bivane is captured by the Bivane dam, west of Coronation in the Zululand District. This dam was
 constructed recently to augment the water supply to the Pongola farmers. It forms part of the Pongola
 system and any new applications for water will only be considered when DWAF has completed a major
 study to establish the “reserve”


 The White Umfolozi


 The White Umfolozi rises just west of Vryheid on the eastern boundary of the Amajuba District. The
 Klipfontein dam captures the flow just southeast of Vryheid. This dam is not of adequate size and the
 water supply to Vryheid and Ulundi is often under stress, with the result that additional abstraction from
 the rivers feeding the dam will most likely not be allowed unless the wall is raised or additional dams
 are constructed. The domestic and industrial demand of Vryheid/Ulundi will always receive first
 priority.


2.3.1.3 KZ254 – Dannhauser
 The Ngagane River with the Ntshingwayo and Mfushane dams


 The Ngagane River rises at 1993mMSL near Die Ark on the Normandien Pass on the opposite side of
 the watershed of the Ncandu River. The Ntshingwayo Dam captures the flow of the river south of
                                                            31

        Newcastle. The capacity of the dam is 199 Mm³ with an available reserve yield of 23 Mm³/annum (1.3.3),
        which should be reserved for the expected domestic and industrial growth of the supply area of between
        11 and 39 Mm³ over the next 20 years (1.3.3) if other dams are not constructed in the demand area. The
        Ncandu River joins northwest of Madadeni from where the Ngangane River flows in an easterly
        direction to join the Buffalo River just north of Madadeni. The Mfushane dam is a relative small dam in
        a tributary to the Ngagane River, near Durnacol. No further irrigation is possible from this dam.
        Domestic water for Durnacol and Dunnhauser is supplied from the Ntshingwayo dam.


        The Mzinyashane river with the Tom Worthington ,Verdruk and Mpate dams


        Rising at 1380 mMSL approximately 11 km north of Hattingspruit, the river follows a southerly course
        and veers off to the east some 7 km from Hattingspruit, crossing the Amajuba boundary north of
        Dundee and joins the Buffalo river north-east of Dundee. The Tom Worthington dam with capacity of
                                                                                                            (1.3.1)
        1.9 Mm³ and the Verdruk dam with capacity of 0.8 Mm³ supply water to Hattingspruit                        . The
        capacity of the Mpate dam is 0.26Mm³. No further irrigation is possible from these dams. Purified
        water to Hattingspruit is also supplied from Dundee. Raw water supply to Dundee is supplemented
        from the Buffalo river, via a pump station on the Buffalo River near the Vryheid Dundee road, when
        the water level in the Donald McHardy dam east of Glenco is too low.


        The Buffalo river downstream of the Blood river confluence (outside Majuba district)


        Further south the Buffalo River enters deeply incised topography in a spectacular gorge west of Qudeni,
        joining the uThukela River 7 km downstream of the Mooi River confluence. A major domestic water
        pump station is situated just north of the Dundee/ Nqutu road bridge across the river. This pump station
        supplies water to Nqutu and the surrounding villages.


2.3.2   Climate

                                    (1.3.1)
        The following information             has been used to establish irrigation requirements for various crops, on
        a macro level, in order to estimate irrigation potential directly from rivers and from proposed dams.


        TABLE 2.3.2.1           MEAN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION:
        Station reference: 371237P – Doornkop (Just north of Newcastle)
        Lat: 27°56'; Long: 30°08'; H: 1371m MSL
        Record Length: 20 years
                Month     Oct Nov         Dec      Jan    Feb    Mar    Apr May       Jun    Jul Aug      Sep Ann.
        Mean               60  93         116      129    112     85     41  22        10    15   13       23 719
        COV%               63  64          50       60     51     40    125 172       217   166 176       110   25
        %MAP                8  13          16       18     16     12      6   3         1      2   2        3 100
                                                   32

These are conservative figures as the rainfall over the region varies from 700 mm in the south-east to
900 mm in the west, on the Drakensberg range. For local detailed irrigation designs, the latest figures
should be used, applicable to the specific area.


TABLE 2.3.2.2            MEAN ANNUAL EVAPORATION:
Station reference: V3E02 Ntshingwayo dam
Lat: 27°57'; Long: 29°57'; H: 1241m MSL
Record Length: 16 years (A-pan)
Month     Oct Nov       Dec    Jan    Feb    Mar        Apr May   Jun     Jul Aug      Sep   Ann.
Mean      207 212       239    224    186    174        133 118    96    106 151       168   2014
Min       147 172       191    161    161    123        100  89    77     89 112        26   1449
Max       257 249       304    303    231    217        162 136   112    146 181       208   2506

Evaporation does not vary much over the region, but it is still advised to use the latest data applicable to
specific areas within the Amajuba district for detailed irrigation system design.


TABLE 2.3.2.3            MEAN ANNUAL TEMPERATURE (degrees Celsius):
Station reference: Dannhauser (371)
Lat: 27°59'; Long: 30°01'; H: 1342m MSL
Record Length: 9 years
Month    Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun                        Jul Aug Sep Ann.
Mean      20     22    23    23     23    22    19    16     12     13     15    19 18.9
Min       12     15    16    17     17    15    12     7      4       5     7    11 11.5
Max.      27     29    30    30     30    29    27    23     21     21     24    27 26.5
The temperature data above has been used as a rough guide to select crops for the establishment of
average irrigation requirements for this study. Up to date bio- resource data should be used for detailed
selection of crops.


TABLE 2.3.2.4            OCCURENCES OF FROST:
Station reference: Dannhauser (371)
Lat: 27°29'; Long: 30°01'; H: 1342m MSL
Record Length: 9 years
Severity of frost                      Period of Occurrence
Light frost (G Min = 0 to -2°C)      : 15 May - 15 Aug
Moderate frost (G Min = -2 to -
6°C)                                 : 1 Jun - 30 Jul
Severe frost (G Min = -6 to -20°C)   : Nil

The frost occurrence data above has been used as a rough guide to select crops for the establishment of
average irrigation requirements for this study. Up to date bio- resource data should be used for detailed
selection of crops.
                                                                     33




2.3.3   Average irrigation requirement


TABLE 2.3.3.1 WEIGHTED AVERAGE CROP FACTORS FOR VARIOUS CROPS
CROP    MAIZE SOYA POTATO              CABBAGE WHEAT MAIZE LETTUCE POTATO                                   EFFECTIVE % OF
        EARLY       LATE                             LATE           EARLY                                     CROP    TOTAL
                                                                                                             FACTOR   AREA

% OF
AREA         30     40            5               10           60          25              10        10
OCT         0.4                                   0.7                                      0.6      0.9             0.57    60
NOV         0.7                                   0.7                                                   1           0.76    50
DEC           1     0.3                                                    0.4                                      0.55    95
JAN         0.9     0.5          0.3                                       0.7                                      0.66 100
FEB         0.5     0.7          0.5                                        1                                       0.71 100
MRT                 0.9          0.7              0.4                      0.9                                      0.83    80
APR                 0.8          0.9              0.6                      0.5                                      0.69    80
MAY                               1               0.7          0.4                                                  0.48    75
JUN                                               0.7          0.9                                                  0.87    70
JUL                                                             1                          0.4      0.3             0.84    80
AUG                                               0.4          0.7                         0.6      0.5             0.63    90
SEP                                               0.6                                      0.7      0.7             0.67    30

        Crop factors and planting seasons given above are meant to provide a reasonable estimation of seasonal
        irrigation requirements, in order to establish broad irrigation potential from available water resources.
        Crop factors and planting seasons need to be optimized by specialists for detailed irrigation designs for
        specific areas.


TABLE 2.3.3.2 AVERAGE IRRIGATION REQUIREMENT FOR VARIOUS CROPS: MADADENI

 M       RAIN       RAIN       AVG -       EFF      EFF        EVAP         EVAP AVG + CROP              NETT GROSS GROSS
                                                                                                        IRR.AV       IRR
                    COV        30%         RAIN     RAIN A PAN              STD           30%     FACT.   G    75%   AVG
           (mm)      %         (mm)         %       (mm)        (mm)             %        (mm)    AVG       (mm)     (mm)   (m³/ha)
 OCT           60         63      49        0.80        39           207             20     213     0.57       82 110            660
 NOV           93         64      75        0.75        56           212             20     218     0.76      109 146            729
 DEC          116         50      99        0.75        74           239             25     247     0.55       62     82         781
 JAN          129         60     106        0.75        79           224             25     232     0.66       73     98         979
 FEB          112         51      95        0.80        76           186             25     194     0.71       61     82         820
 MRT           85         40      75        0.80        60           174             15     179     0.83       88 118            942
 APR           41     125         26        0.85        22           133             15     138     0.69       73     97         780
 MAY           22     172         11        0.90        10           118             10     121     0.48       48     65         485
 JUN           10     217              3    0.95           3          96             10      99     0.87       83 110            773
 JUL           15     166              8    0.95           7         106             10     109     0.84       84 113            900
                                                       34

AUG          13     176         6    0.95        6     151         15    156     0.63    92 123        1106
SEP          23     110       15     0.85       13     168         20    174     0.67    103 138        414
TOTAL       719             567             445 2014               2077                            9368
      The irrigation requirements provided in the above table is meant to provide a rough estimate of average
      seasonal water requirements for the Amajuba district as a whole, for an arbitrary selected mix of crops
      as indicated in the previous table. These are conservative figures as conservative rainfall and
      evaporation figures were used. For detailed irrigation system design the latest crop specific detail needs
      to be used. The irrigation requirements above provides for supplementary irrigation assuming average
      rainfall minus 30 %. For high value, sensitive crops the effect of rainfall should be considered to be
      ignored.


      An average irrigation efficiency of 75 % has been assumed which excludes closed system losses of
      approximately 6 %. Thus, the gross irrigation area edge requirement (closed system end) is calculated to
      be approximately 10 000 m³/ha /annum. It is thus required that the infield irrigation systems be designed
      for efficiencies of 75 % and better, e.g. optimum pressure/nozzle sizes, micro and drip irrigation where
      possible, not irrigating in windy conditions, night irrigation if possible, etc.


      Detailed irrigation scheduling needs to be implemented in order to prevent over and /or under irrigation,
      using the latest technology, e.g. soil tensiometers, etc.


      Allowance has to be made for conveyance losses from the dams to the booster pump stations (closed
      systems) Depending on the system, this may vary from 5 % to more than 30 %. For this exercise it is
      assumed that water will be conveyed by canals/rivers to the irrigable areas, thus a conveyance loss of 30
      % is assumed.


      Losses should be determined more accurately for specific areas and the full irrigation requirement
      considered for the design of small areas. However, for extensive areas it is very unlikely that 100% of
      the total irrigable area will be irrigated at the same time. For this study it is assumed that approximately
      70 % of the total area will be irrigated at the same time.


      The irrigation potential of proposed dams in this study is therefore assumed to be approximately
      100 ha per Mm³ yield at 80 % reliability. Application of 1000mm at reliability of 1:5 years.
                                                         35




2.3.4   Water quality


        The Ngagane River (1.3.1)


        TABLE 2.3.4.1            V3R01W – NTSHINGWAYO DAM
        (Period: 82-06-16 to 89-08-02)
        Item          Unit      Average         Std.
        EC            Ms/m        34,22        34,31
        pH            -            7,25         0,56
        Na            Mg/l        39,13        64,27
        Mg            Mg/l         9,69         6,97
        Ca            Mg/l        17,23         9,95
        F             Mg/l         0,29         0,48
        CL            Mg/l        14,42        18,21
        NO3           Mg/l         0,34         0,85
        SO4           Mg/l        64,13       110,82
        PO4           Mg/l         0,19         3,78
        TAL           Mg/l        81,66        68,76
        SI            Mg/l         5,71         1,80
        K             Mg/l         3,48         7,93
        NH4           Mg/l         0,09         0,18
        SAR           -            1,58

        Water Quality: C2 - S1.
        The water is suitable for irrigation with very slight limitations




        Buffalo river (1.3.1)
        TABLE 2.3.4.2            V3M15 – VAALBANK
        (Period: 82-07-27 TO 89-09-27)
        Item          Unit      Average          Std.
        EC            Ms/m        43,41         28,36
        Ph            -            7,18          0,49
        Na            mg/l        42,06         43,20
        Mg            mg/l        10,71          5,15
        Ca            mg/l        21,80         12,51
        F             mg/l         0,79          1,16
        CL            mg/l        31,61         35,92
        NO3           mg/l         1,66          2,12
        SO4           mg/l        71,99         58,35
        PO4           mg/l         0,30          0,60
        TAL           mg/l        63,76         34,11
        SI            mg/l         5,94          1,97
        K             mg/l         5,61          4,40
                                                         36

        NH4          mg/l           0,14         0,27
        SAR          -              1,36

        Water Quality: C2 - S1
        The water is suitable for irrigation with very slight limitations
        It is of the utmost importance that water quality for irrigation purposes is determined before major costs
        are incurred. From the above data it is assumed that there will generally not be serious problems with
        water quality in the area. However, this needs to be confirmed before detailed design phase, for specific
        areas. Purportedly, there are some local areas with poor water quality; mostly associated with mining
        activities. The water quality will inter alia determine the type of crops that can be cultivated, the amount
        of leaching (over irrigation) required, the possible need for application of chemicals to improve the
        drainage characteristics of the soils, whether subsurface drainage is required, or whether cultivation is
        possible at all.



2.3.5   Mean annual runoff

        TABLE 2.3.5.1 - VIRGIN MEAN ANNUAL RUNOFF (1990) (1.3.4)
        Catchment     Area Forest MAR MAP MAE MAR                                 Comment
        Number                                    %
                                                 MAP
                      (km²) (km²) (Mm³) (mm) (mm) %
        BUFFALO
        V31A    622                   121      916    1400    18   Slang river at Zaaihoek dam
        V31B    505            22      82      856    1400    14   Buffalo river upstream Ngogo river
        V31C    396             4      55      810    1400    11   Buffalo river downstream Ngogo river
        V31D    467                    45      790    1450     8   Buffalo river downstream Ngagane river
        V31E    834             9     100      855    1450    10   Ngagane river at Ntshingwayo dam
        V31F    156             4      24      920    1450    14   Horn river at Ngangane confluence
        V31G    255                    19      762    1500     6   Ngagane river downstream of Horn river
        V31H    129            10      25      966    1400    19   Ncandu river top
        V31J    358             3      46      874    1450    11   Ncandu river at Ngangane confluence
        V31K    227                    20      796    1500     7   Ngagane river at Buffalo confluence
        V32A    195             1      33      943    1450    16   Dorpspruit upstream Utrecht
        V32B    557             1      51      801    1500     7   Buffalo downstream Dorpspruit
        V32C    630                    41      730    1500     5   Buffalo river upstream of Flint
        V32D    590                    41      744    1500     5   Buffalo river downstream of R33
        V32E    783                    64      776    1500     6   Mzinyashana stream at Buffalo
        V32F    201                    14      739    1500     5   Buffalo river upstream Dundee/Nqutu road
        V32G    544             4      68      859    1450    11   Blood river to Dundee Vryheid road
        V32H    517                    32      722    1500     5   Blood river at confluence with Buffalo
        V33A    577                    41      745    1500     5   Buffalo river at Rorks Drift
        V33B    407                    28      736    1500     5   Buffalo river at Ngxobongo confluence
        V33C    398                    34      771    1450     7   Buffalo river
        V33D    455                    34      737    1450     5   Buffalo river at Thukela confluence
        Total   9803           58     1017

        The figures above indicate that the highest runoff occur in the Drakensberg range.
                                               37




TABLE 2.3.5.2 - DEVELOPED CATCHMENT AVERAGE ANNUAL RUNOFF (2005)


Catchment Afforested        Domestic DCAAR Cumulative                              Comment
Number      MAR Irrigation      +           DCAAR
                           Industrial+
                             Reserve
           (Mm³)     (Mm³)   (Mm³) (Mm³)     (Mm³)

V31A           121         5         62         54        54      Slang river at Zaaihoek dam
V31B            79         6         1          72       126      Buffalo river upstream Ngogo river
V31C            55         2         1          51       178      Buffalo river downstream Ngogo river
V31D            45         8         1          36       379      Buffalo river downstream Ngagane river
V31E            99         9         47         43        43      Ngagane river at Ntshingwayo dam
V31F            23                   1          22        22      Horn river at Ngangane confluence
V31G            19         2         1          16        82      Ngagane river downstream of Horn river
V31H            23                   1          22        22      Ncandu river top
V31J            46                   1          45        67      Ncandu river at Ngangane confluence
V31K            20         3         1          16       165      Ngagane river at Buffalo confluence
V32A            33                   2          31        31      Dorpspruit upstream Utrecht
V32B            51        4          1          45       455      Buffalo downstream Dorpspruit
V32C            41        2          2          37       492      Buffalo river upstream of Flint
V32D            41        12         4          25       518      Buffalo river downstream of R33
V32E            64        2          2          60        60      Mzinyashana stream at Buffalo
V32F            14        6          4           4       582      Buffalo river upstream Dundee/Nqutu road
V32G            68                   2          66        66      Blood river to Dundee Vryheid road
V32H            32                   2          30        96      Blood river at confluence with Buffalo
V33A            41                   2          39       717      Buffalo river at Rorks Drift
V33B            28                   2          26       743      Buffalo river at Ngxobongo confluence
V33C            34                   2          32       775      Buffalo river
V33D            34                   2          32       807      Buffalo river at Thukela confluence
Total         1010        60        144        807


It is evident from the table above that on average; a large surplus quantity of water reached the outlet of
the Buffalo river system. This quantity is not utilizable at present as the runoff occurs mainly as floods
of short durations. There is presently very few means of capturing/storing the runoff in the Amajuba
district.
                                                        38

        TABLE 2.3.5.3 - PROJECTED DEVELOPED CATCHMENT AVERAGE ANNUAL
        RUNOFF (2025) WITHOUT NEW DAMS AND NO ADDITIONAL IRRIGATION AND
        FORESTATION, BUT WITH HIGH DOMESTIC/INDUSTRIAL GROWTH.
Catchment Afforested Irrigation Domestic+ DCAAR Cumulative Comment
Number      MAR                 Industrial       DCAAR
                                +Reserve
           (Mm³)       (Mm³)      (Mm³)    (Mm³)  (Mm³)

V31A                121      5          70            46      46      Slang river at Zaaihoek dam
V31B                 79      6           1            72     118      Buffalo river upstream Ngogo river
V31C                 55      2           1            51     170      Buffalo river downstream Ngogo river
V31D                 45      8           1            36     333      Buffalo river downstream Ngagane river
V31E                 99      9          85             5       5      Ngagane river at Ntshingwayo dam
V31F                 23                  1            22      22      Horn river at Ngangane confluence
V31G                 19      2           1            16      44      Ngagane river downstream of Horn river
V31H                 23                  1            22      22      Ncandu river top
V31J                 46                  1            45      67      Ncandu river at Ngangane confluence
V31K                 20      3           1            16     127      Ngagane river at Buffalo confluence
V32A                 33                  5            28      28      Dorpspruit upstream Utrecht
V32B                 51      4           1            45     406      Buffalo downstream Dorpspruit
V32C                 41      2           2            37     443      Buffalo river upstream of Flint
V32D                 41     12           6            23     467      Buffalo river downstream of R33
V32E                 64      2           2            60      60      Mzinyashana stream at Buffalo
V32F                 14      6           8             0     527      Buffalo river upstream Dundee/Nqutu road
V32G                 68                  2            66      66      Blood river to Dundee Vryheid road
V32H                 32                  2            30      96      Blood river at confluence with Buffalo
V33A                 41                  2            39     662      Buffalo river at Rorks Drift
V33B                 28                  2            26     688      Buffalo river at Ngxobongo confluence
V33C                 34                  2            32     720      Buffalo river
V33D                 34                  2            32     752      Buffalo river at Thukela confluence
Total              1010          60          199     752

        It is evident that at least for the next 20 years, the domestic/industrial and reserve demands can be met,
        with n significant surplus at the outlet of the Buffalo system. This quantity is not utilizable at present as
        the runoff occurs mainly as floods of short durations. There is presently very few means of
        capturing/storing the runoff in the Amajuba district.
                                                       39

        TABLE 2.3.5.4 - MAXIMUM PROJECTED FLOOD PEAKS (1.3.1)
                  Maximum      Comment
        Catchment flood peak
        Number (m³/s)

        V31A             2494 Slang river at Zaaihoek dam
        V31B             3357 Buffalo river upstream Ngogo river
        V31C             3903 Buffalo river downstream Ngogo river
        V31D             6284 Buffalo river downstream Ngagane river
        V31E             2888 Ngagane river at Ntshingwayo dam
        V31F             1249 Horn river at Ngangane confluence
        V31G             3528 Ngagane river downstream of Horn river
        V31H             1136 Ncandu river top
        V31J             2207 Ncandu river at Ngangane confluence
        V31K             4426 Ngagane river at Buffalo confluence
        V32A             1396 Dorpspruit upstream Utrecht
        V32B             6856 Buffalo downstream Dorpspruit
        V32C             7301 Buffalo river upstream of Flint
        V32D             7695 Buffalo river downstream of R33
        V32E             2798 Mzinyashana stream at Buffalo
        V32F             8310 Buffalo river upstream Dundee/Nqutu road
        V32G             2332 Blood river to Dundee Vryheid road
        V32H             3257 Blood river at confluence with Buffalo
        V33A             9243 Buffalo river at Rorks Drift
        V33B             9460 Buffalo river at Ngxobongo confluence
        V33C             9669 Buffalo river
        V33D             9901 Buffalo river at confluence with Thukela



        It is evident from the above table that the maximum predicted flood peaks are significant. The cost of
        spillways of dams in the main rivers will therefore have to be carefully considered in any cost
        estimation.


2.3.6   Groundwater resources




        TABLE 2.3.6.1 - AVERAGE YIELD OF BOREHOLES IN MADADENI AREA (1.3.1).
         District      % of Boreholes yielding :
                       Dry           0-300 l/h     300-1000 l/h    1000-5000       >5000 l/h
                                                                   l/h
         Madadeni      32            33            3               22              16
                                                         40


        TABLE 2.3.6.2 - AVERAGE DEPTH OF BOREHOLES
        WITH YIELDS EXCEEDING 300 LITER (1.3.1)
        District        % of Boreholes with depths :
                        <10 m        10-60 m        >60 m
        Madadeni                     43             57


        Boreholes cannot supply sufficient water for irrigation, and should be reserved for domestic use and
        stock drinking purposes where necessary.

2.3.7   PRESENT WATER AVAILABILITY FOR ADDITIONAL AGRICULTURAL USE


2.3.7.1 Direct river abstraction availability
        2.3.7.1.1        KZ252 – Newcastle


        Slang river


        As approximately the total yield is transferred/reserved for the Vaal system from the Zaaihoek dam, no
        additional water is presently available from the Slang river. In emergency situations, depending on the
        urgency of supply to the Vaal system, water may be released into the Buffalo river system.


        Buffalo river


        There is presently no water available for further irrigation development from the Buffalo river, unless
        dams are constructed in the Buffalo river or in its tributaries, such as the proposed Ncandu dam in the
        Ncandu river.


        Further irrigation and forestry development should be prohibited along the Buffalo river, unless dams
        are constructed in the Buffalo river catchments area and a detailed water resources analysis is performed
        on the whole system, up to the outlet of the Buffalo river.


        According to chemical analysis results of 1982-1989, the water is suitable for irrigation with very slight
        limitations.


        The Ncandu River


        There is presently no water available for further irrigation development from the Ncandu river,
        assuming a medium growth rate for the domestic/industrial water use in the water use area, unless the
        proposed Ncandu dam is constructed.
                                                41



Further irrigation and forestry development should be prohibited along the Ncandu River, unless dams
are constructed in the Ncandu river catchments and a detailed water resources analysis is performed on
the whole system, up to the outlet of the Buffalo river.




The Ngagane River




There is presently a surplus of approximately 23 Mm³/annum available at the Ntshingwayo dam, but it
should be reserved for the expected domestic and industrial demand growth of between 11 and 38
Mm³/annum. (1.3.3) , if the demand cannot be supplemented otherwise.




Utilization of the surplus water to irrigate approximately 2300 ha may commence in a phased
fashion immediately, provided dam construction in other rivers are scheduled as such to meet the
projected increased domestic/industrial demand of between 11Mm³ and 38Mm³ over a period of
approximately 20 years. These dams have preferably to be upstream of the domestic/industrial demand
area, such as the planned Ncandu dam, potential Horn river dam, and potential upper-Buffalo river dam.
DWAF may insist to reserve some, or all of the surplus water and to construct the dams first before
additional irrigation is allowed.




Further irrigation and forestry development upstream of the Ntshingwayo dam and along the Ngagane
river, should be prohibited for the time being, unless water is transferred to the Ntshingwayo dam or its
supply area and a detailed water resources and demand analysis is performed on the whole system, up to
the outlet of the Buffalo river.




According to chemical analysis results of 1982-1989, the water is suitable for irrigation with very slight
limitations




The graph below indicate the effect of a 1,5 Mm³/annum increased irrigation use on the required
augmentation date, for low, medium and high domestic/industrial growth projections.
                                                        42

                                         Buffalo River Urban/Industrial demand
                                         Projected growth

                           40
  Projected demand (Mm³)

                           30
                                   Augmentation2010   Augmentation2011


                           20
                                                                    Augmentation2013

                           10



                           0
                            2005          2010           2015            2020             2025
                                                         Year
                       High                                  Med

                       Low                                   Reserve(irrigation growth)



The graph above, indicate that augmentation would be required on or before 2010 for the high
domestic/industrial growth scenario, if irrigation is implemented at a rate of 1,5Mm³/annum
(150ha/annum) It must be noted that this graph is only applicable to development that is supplied
directly from Ntshingwayo Dam.


The Horn River


There is presently no water available for further irrigation development from the Horn river system,
unless a dam is constructed in the river.


Further irrigation and forestry development should be prohibited, unless a dam is constructed in the
river and a detailed water resource analysis is performed on the whole system, up to the outlet of the
Buffalo River.


Purportedly, the water quality of the Horn River is not very good for irrigation purposes. This
and the effect that a dam will have on the water quality, needs to be investigated before major
costs are incurred.
                                                          43


2.3.7.1.2       KZ253 – Utrecht


        Slang river


        As approximately the total yield is transferred/reserved for the Vaal system from the Zaaihoek dam, no
        additional water is presently available from the Slang River. In emergency situations, depending on
        the urgency of supply to the Vaal system, water may be released into the Buffalo river system.


        Buffalo River


        There is presently no water available for further irrigation development from the Buffalo River, unless
        dams are constructed in the Buffalo River or in its tributaries, such as the proposed Ncandu dam in the
        Ncandu River.


        Further irrigation and forestry development should be prohibited along the Buffalo river, unless dams
        are constructed in the Buffalo River catchments area and a detailed water resources analysis is
        performed on the whole system, up to the outlet of the Buffalo river.


        According to chemical analysis results of 1982-1989, the water is suitable for irrigation with very slight
        limitations.


        The graph below indicate the effect of a 1,5 Mm³/annum increased irrigation use on the required
        augmentation date, for low, medium and high domestic/industrial growth projections.


        The graph above, indicate that augmentation would be required on or before 2010 for the high
        domestic/industrial growth scenario, if irrigation is implemented at a rate of 1,5Mm³/annum
        (150ha/annum)

        The Blood River


        There is presently no water available for further irrigation development from the Blood river system
        unless a dam is constructed in the river or in its tributaries.


        Further irrigation and forestry development should be prohibited along the Blood river, unless
        dams are constructed in the Blood river catchments and a detailed water resources analysis is
        performed on the whole system, up to the confluence with the Buffalo river. Any development
        upstream of the existing dam east of the Vryheid/Dundee road should take this dam and its
        utilization into consideration, as the “first-come, first-served” principle apply in water division.
                                                  44

Pongola River


There is presently no water available for further irrigation development from the Pongola river. The
water is used extensively around Pongola and Jozini, mainly for the growing of sugarcane. Any new
applications for water will only be considered when DWAF has completed a major study to establish
the “reserve” The Pandana and Tsakwane Rivers are a tributaries of the Pongola River and the same
ruling therefore applies.


Bivane River


There is presently no water available for further irrigation development from the Bivane River. The
water of the Bivane is captured by the Bivane dam. This dam was constructed recently to augment the
water supply to the Pongola farmers. It forms part of the Pongola river system and any new applications
for water will only be considered when DWAF has completed a major study to establish the “reserve”


The White Umfolozi


There is presently no water available for further irrigation development from the White Umfolozi
River. The Klipfontein dam captures the flow just southeast of Vryheid. This dam is not of adequate
size and the water supply to Vryheid and Ulundi is often under stress, with the result that additional
abstraction from the rivers feeding the dam will most likely not be allowed unless the wall is raised or
additional dams are constructed. The domestic and industrial demand of Vryheid/Ulundi will always
receive first priority.


The Blood River


There is presently no water available for further irrigation development from the Blood river system
unless a dam is constructed in the river or in its tributaries.


Further irrigation and forestry development should be prohibited along the Blood river, unless
dams are constructed in the Blood river catchments and a detailed water resources analysis is
performed on the whole system, up to the confluence with the Buffalo river. Any development
upstream of the existing dam east of the Vryheid/Dundee road should take this dam and its
utilization into consideration, as the “first-come, first-served” principle apply in water division.
                                                        45

2.3.7.1.3       KZ254 – Dannhauser
        Buffalo river


        There is presently no water available for further irrigation development from the Buffalo River, unless
        dams are constructed in the Buffalo River or in its tributaries, such as the proposed Ncandu dam in the
        Ncandu river.


        Further irrigation and forestry development should be prohibited along the Buffalo River, unless dams
        are constructed in the Buffalo river catchments area and a detailed water resources analysis is performed
        on the whole system, up to the outlet of the Buffalo river.


        According to chemical analysis results of 1982-1989, the water is suitable for irrigation with very slight
        limitations.


        The Ngagane River


        There is presently a surplus of approximately 23 Mm³/annum available at the Ntshingwayo dam, but it
        should be reserved for the expected domestic and industrial demand growth of between 11 and 38
        Mm³/annum. (1.3.3) , if the demand cannot be supplemented otherwise.


        Utilization of the surplus water to irrigate approximately 2300 ha may commence in a phased
        fashion immediately, provided dam construction in other rivers are scheduled as such to meet the
        projected increased domestic/industrial demand of between 11Mm³ and 38Mm³ over a period of
        approximately 20 years. These dams have preferably to be upstream of the domestic/industrial demand
        area, such as the planned Ncandu dam, potential Horn river dam, and potential upper-Buffalo river dam.
        DWAF may insist to reserve some, or all of the surplus water and to construct the dams first before
        additional irrigation is allowed.


        Further irrigation and forestry development upstream of the Ntshingwayo dam and along the Ngagane
        river, should be prohibited for the time being, unless water is transferred to the Ntshingwayo dam or its
        supply area and a detailed water resources and demand analysis is performed on the whole system, up to
        the outlet of the Buffalo river.


        According to chemical analysis results of 1982-1989, the water is suitable for irrigation with very slight
        limitations.


        The graph above (see Newcastle), indicate that augmentation would be required on or before 2010 for
        the high domestic/industrial growth scenario, if irrigation is implemented at a rate of 1,5Mm³/annum
        (150ha/annum)
                                                       46


       The Mzinyashane river


       There is presently no water available for further irrigation development from the Mzinyashane river
       system, unless a dam is constructed in the river.


       Summary
       The only reliable water source at present, for additional agricultural use, is the Ntshingwayo dam,
       with a present surplus of approximately 23 Mm³/annum. Utilization of the surplus water to irrigate
       approximately 2300 ha may commence in a phased fashion immediately, provided dam construction
       in other rivers are scheduled as such to meet the projected increased domestic/industrial demand of
       between 11Mm³ and 38Mm³ over a period of approximately 20 years. (Refer to the graph above,
       indicating an irrigation development scenario of 150 ha per annum) These dams should preferably be
       upstream of the domestic/industrial demand area, such as the planned Ncandu dam, potential Horn river
       dam, and potential upper-Buffalo river dam. The irrigation areas have preferably to be downstream of
       the existing and potential dams and close to the rivers, at low altitudes.
       There is presently no reliable water available for additional agricultural use directly from the other
       rivers, especially during the months May to November. There is however a substantial amount of storm
       runoff water that is not utilizable at present due to the lack of sufficient catchments dams.


2.3.7.2 Proposed and potential dams


       It is evident from the projected 2025 Developed Catchments Average Annual Runoff (DCAAR) that
       there would be on average a significant amount of water available per annum at the outlet of the buffalo
       river system assuming no additional forestation and irrigation, but high domestic/industrial growth in
       the Amajuba area. This water is not available directly from the rivers as the runoff occurs mainly as
       floods of short durations. It is thus required to construct dams in the catchments to make use of the
       excess water.

                                                                             (1.3.2)
       Potential dams have been identified before by Ceenex (Pty) Ltd               , using 1: 50 000 maps. In this
       study the same sites have been investigated further, in so far the budget allowed. Yields have been re-
       estimated using rough calculations. The sites have not been visited to determine that the sites are in fact
       viable for dam building purposes. It is evident from the 1:50 000 maps that some existing lands and
       infrastructure will be inundated. The extent of this should be determined by detailed surveys. It is
       extremely difficult to estimate the construction cost of dams without detailed surveys and designs. The
       cost estimates should be used with extreme caution. It is merely done to form a basis for further
       economic analysis in this study and to provide a “rough feeling” for what the costs could be. It is also
       not possible to calculate the capacity and therefore the yields of the dams accurately using 1: 50 000
       maps. This investigation will however indicate whether it is worth investigating a possible dam site any
                                                47

further. Obviously the economic viability of a dam is dependent on the intended use and the
affordability in the long term of the water. The economic analysis for a dam should therefore include
the analysis of the whole system. The viability of an irrigation system is inter alia, dependant on the soil
and therefore a micro soil analysis of the intended irrigation area is of vital importance. The effect of
poor soil can be overcome by installing subsurface drainage systems or by tunnel farming, but that have
to be factored into the economic viability of the system as a whole, dam, bulk supply cost, irrigation
system, subsurface drainage, access roads, etc.


For the purpose of this study, a simplified economical analysis model was used to establish a rough
estimate of dam and water costs. Refer to the following table for an example.


SIMPLIFIED FINANCIAL ANALYSIS FOR A TYPICAL SMALL DAM (NCANDU DAM)
TABLE 2.3.7.2.1 - USING A SELECTED DISCOUNT RATE OVER THE LIFE SPAN OF THE
DAM
DAM WALL HEIGHT (m)      34
DAM WALL LENGTH (m)     196
YIELD (Mm³/annum)        14
TOTAL DISCOUNTED    2755535
COST(R/annum)
WATER COST ( c/m³)       20

ITEM                          Project Life Operation Operation Discount Period Discounted
                              capital      and maint and maint rate              capital
                               cost                                            redemption
Description                     (R) (yr) (%) (R/yr)               (%)    (yr)     (R/yr)
Dam wall                     45581760 40       0.5% 227909 4.00%            40 2302950
Mechanical equipment          2279088 20       2.5%     56977 4.00%         20     167699


Total cost                   47860848                    284886                     2470649


TABLE 2.3.7.2.2 - USING A SELECTED INTEREST RATE OVER A SELECTED LOAN
PERIOD, WITHOUT SUBSIDY
YIELD (Mm³/annum)      14
TOTAL COST        5906603
(R/annum)

WATER COST (c/m³)              42

ITEM                 Project Life Operation Operation Interest Period Capital
                     Capital      and maint and maint Rate            redemption
                      Cost
Description            (R) (yr) (%) (R/yr)              (%) (yr)         (R/yr)
Dam wall            45581760 40       0.5% 227909 10.00%           20 5354016
Mechanical equipment 2279088 20       2.5%     56977 10.00%        20     267701

Total cost             47860848                      284886                  5621717
                                            48

TABLE 2.3.7.2.3 - USING A SELECTED INTEREST RATE OVER A SELECTED LOAN
PERIOD, WITH SUBSIDY
YIELD (Mm³/annum)       14
TOTAL COST         4220088
( R/annum)
CAPITAL SUBSIDY %       30
WATER COST ( c/m³)      30

ITEM                 Subsidized Life Operation Operation Interest Period Capital
                       capital       and maint and maint Rate            redemption
                        Cost
Description             (R)     (yr) (%) (R/yr)            (%) (yr)         (R/yr)
Dam wall              31907232 40        0.5% 227909 10.00%           20 3747811
Mechanical equipment   1595362 20        2.5%     56977 10.00%        20     187391

Total cost                 33502594               284886                  3935202




TABLE 2.3.7.2.4 - SILT YIELD AT 400-600 TON/KM²/ANNUM
Catchment Virgin Cum. Cum. Half life Comment
Number      silt  Silt MAR of a dam
           yield yield (1990)    =
                       (Mm³) 0.5xMAR
          (Mm³) (Mm³)          (Year)

V31A         0.35   0.35     121       86 Slang river at Zaaihoek dam
V31B         0.29   0.64     200       78 Buffalo river upstream Ngogo river
V31C         0.23   0.87     255       73 Buffalo river downstream Ngogo river
V31D         0.27   2.21     530       60 Buffalo river downstream Ngagane river
V31E         0.48   0.48      99       52 Ngagane river at Ntshingwayo dam
V31F         0.09   0.09      23       65 Horn river at Ngangane confluence
V31G         0.15   0.71     141       50 Ngagane river downstream of Horn river
V31H         0.07   0.07      23       79 Ncandu river top
V31J         0.20   0.28      69       62 Ncandu river at Ngangane confluence
V31K         0.09   1.07     230       54 Ngagane river at Buffalo confluence
V32A         0.11   0.11      33       74 Dorpspruit upstream Utrecht
V32B         0.21   2.53     613       61 Buffalo downstream Dorpspruit
V32C         0.24   2.77     655       59 Buffalo river upstream of Flint
V32D         0.34   3.11     696       56 Buffalo river downstream of R33
V32E         0.30   0.30      64       54 Mzinyashana stream at Buffalo
V32F         0.08   3.48     773       56 Buffalo river upstream Dundee/Nqutu road
V32G         0.21   0.21      68       82 Blood river to Dundee Vryheid road
V32H         0.20   0.40     100       62 Blood river at confluence with Buffalo
V33A         0.22   4.10     915       56 Buffalo river at Rorkes Drift
V33B         0.15   4.26     942       55 Buffalo river at Ngxobongo confluence
V33C         0.15   4.41     977       55 Buffalo river
V33D         0.17   4.58    1010       55 Buffalo river at Thukela confluence
Total        4.58
                                                       49

        The table above indicates how important it is to calculate the possible silt yield of a dam when
        evaluating its feasibility. Most dams of capacity 50 % of the MAR and less, would be nearly half silted
        up in 40 years time (the normal “life span” in economical analysis) For the purpose of this study it is
        recommended that potential dams should be sized at not less than 80 % of the Mean Annual Runoff
        (MAR) at that point.


2.3.7.2.1       KZ252 – Newcastle


      Ncandu dam:
      This potential dam is situated on the farms Rockhill 8611 and The Ruins 9121 at approximate
      coordinates: 29°4410East: 27°5230 South. Refer to 1:50 000 map 2729DC
      Estimated capacity:                        15,3 Mm³ (1.3.3)
      Estimated MAR at dam                       19 Mm³
      Estimated yield (80% assurance)            13 Mm³/annum (1.3.3)
                     Estimated cost              R48 M for the wall only
                     Estimated water cost:
                     Discounted                  20c/m³
                     Effective cost              42 c/m³
                     Effective subsidized cost   30 c/m³ (30 % subsidy)


      Approximately 1000 ha additional irrigation will be possible if the Ncandu dam is constructed assuming a
      medium industrial/domestic growth rate for the Amajuba area. Should the domestic/industrial growth be
      low in the Newcastle/Madadeni area and water saving measures is implemented, then approximately 3600
      ha could be irrigated. If water is transferred to the Ntshingwayo dam then approximately 1000 ha of the
      1000 –3600 ha could be developed around the Ntshingwayo dam, else development will only be possible
      downstream for the proposed Ncandu dam along the Ncandu river and Ngagane and Buffalo rivers
      downstream of the Ncandu/Ngagane confluence. (1.3.3)

      Dam V31 B1- upper Buffalo


      This potential dam is situated on the farms Tigerkloof 399 and Kreiger holm 3340 at approximate
      coordinates: 29°55 East: 27°29 South. Refer to 1: 50 000 map 2729BD
      Surface area                               300ha
      Estimated capacity:                        42 Mm³
      Estimated MAR at dam                       46 Mm³
      Estimated yield (80% assurance)            30 Mm³/annum
                     Estimated cost              R127 M for the wall only
                     Estimated water cost upper Buffalo dam:
                     Discounted                  25c/m³
                                                    50

                Effective cost               52 c/m³
                Effective subsidized cost    47 c/m³ (30 % subsidy)


The dam wall at this site can most likely be raised economically, as the side slopes of the gorge continue
upwards at the same angle. Only a detailed analysis taking into consideration its intended use, silt load,
inundated infrastructure etc, will determine its optimum height. The estimated MAR is also conservative
at this stage, as the effect of the Zaaihoek dam is not established and it is assumed to capture all the runoff
up to its location. The upstream future requirement of the Volksrust/Charlstown area needs to be
considered with the detailed analysis.


Dam V31F1- Horn river


This potential dam is situated on the farm Horn River 4305 at approximate coordinates:
29°52 East: 27°54 South. Refer to 1: 50 000 map 2729DD
Surface area:                                700ha
Estimated capacity:                          30 Mm³
Estimated MAR at dam:                        18 Mm³
Estimated yield (80% assurance)              14 Mm³/annum
                Estimated cost:              R58 M for the wall only
                Estimated water cost:
                Discounted                   24c/m³
                Effective cost               51c/m³
                Effective subsidized cost    37 c/m³ (30 % subsidy)


This dam is in close proximity of coal fields and a detailed investigation will be required to determine the
effect of that and if unexploited coals fields will be encountered. The dam may also have a positive effect
on the coalmine dumps/open area, as it would divert/capture water away from the dumps/open mines. It is
also evident that some wetland will be encountered and an environmental scoping will be required before
costs are incurred to investigate this site any further.
A better site may be found just downstream at Herons Court. Depending on the cost associated
with the inundation of infrastructure, this site may be more economical, with cost for the dam
wall only, estimated at R 31 M.


 Dam V31 J1-Ngudumeni stream north west of Newcastle


This potential dam site is situated on the farm Mattandu in the Ngudumeni river at approximate
coordinates: 29°52 East: 27°42 South. Refer to 1: 50 000 map 2729 DB
Surface area                                 25ha
                                                 51

Estimated capacity:                        2,5 Mm³
Estimated MAR at dam                       4 Mm³
Estimated yield (80% assurance)            2 Mm³/annum
               Estimated cost              R96 M for the wall only
               Estimated water cost:
               Discounted                  276c/m³
               Effective cost              592c/m³
               Effective subsidized cost   423c/m³ (30 % subsidy)


The capacity of this dam is only 63 % of the MAR (less than the recommendation of 80%),
which may result in a short lifespan due to siltation. The water cost is also very high due to the
unfavorable wall/water capacity relationship. This dam is not considered further for this study.


 Dam V31 C1- Ngogo stream west of Lofdal


This potential dam site is situated on the farm White house in the Ngogo river at approximate coordinates:
29°53 East: 27°34 South. Refer to 1: 50 000 map 2729 DB
Surface area                               500ha
Estimated capacity:                        58Mm³
Estimated MAR at dam                       54Mm³
Estimated yield (80% assurance)            35 Mm³/annum
               Estimated cost              R505 M for the wall only
               Estimated water cost:
               Discounted                  83c/m³
               Effective cost              178c/m³
               Effective subsidized cost   127c/m³ (30 % subsidy)


Due to its long wall, the dam is very expensive. The estimated yield is however substantial,
resulting in a water cost that is not extremely high. Significant infrastructure will be inundated
and this needs to be priced. A dam at this site cannot be build much smaller as it will silt up
quickly due to the high runoff at this point.


 Dam V31D1- Buffalo river north of Madadeni


A dam at this site has been proposed previously(1.3.2). A dam at this point has to be fairly large, minimum
160 to 200 Mm³ if it is upstream of the Ngagane confluence and minimum 200Mm³ to 250 Mm³ if it is
downstream of the Ngagane confluence, in order for the dam to have a reasonable life. This size of dam
will inundate a substantial possible irrigable area and also substantial infrastructure, inter-alia, some of
                                                 52

the Yscor grounds if it is upstream of the Ngagane confluence and some urban areas in Madadeni if it is
downstream of the Ngagane confluence. It is therefore not investigated further in this study. It is expected
that the economic viability will not be very favorable.
 Dam V31 C2- Ngogo stream at Honingkrans (Bothas pass)


This potential dam site is situated on the farm Honingkrans in the Ngogo river at approximate
coordinates: 29°46 East; 27°38 South. Refer to 1: 50 000 map 2729 DB
Surface area                               130ha
Estimated capacity:                        17Mm³
Estimated MAR at dam                       17Mm³
Estimated yield (80% assurance)            11 Mm³/annum
               Estimated cost              R184 M for the wall only
               Estimated water cost:
               Discounted                  97c/m³
               Effective cost              207c/m³
               Effective subsidized cost   148c/m³ (30 % subsidy)


 The main road to Memel will be inundated and needs to be priced into the equation. For the
 purpose of this study the dam near Lofdal is selected. However, construction of both dams may
 be proven to be the optimum solution.


 Dam V31 C1- Ngogo stream west of Lofdal


This potential dam site is situated on the farm White house in the Ngogo river at approximate coordinates:
29°53 East: 27°34 South. Refer to 1: 50 000 map 2729 DB
Surface area                               500ha
Estimated capacity:                        58Mm³
Estimated MAR at dam                       54Mm³
Estimated yield (80% assurance)            35 Mm³/annum
               Estimated cost              R505 M for the wall only
               Estimated water cost:
               Discounted                  83c/m³
               Effective cost              178c/m³
               Effective subsidized cost   127c/m³ (30 % subsidy)


Due to its long wall, the dam is very expensive. The estimated yield is however substantial, resulting in a
water cost that is not extremely high. Significant infrastructure will be inundated and this needs to be
                                                        53

      priced. A dam at this site cannot be build much smaller as it will silt up quickly due to the high runoff at
      this point.


        Dam V31 C2- Ngogo stream at Honingkrans (Bothas pass)


      This potential dam site is situated on the farm Honingkrans in the Ngogo river at approximate
      coordinates: 29°46 East; 27°38 South. Refer to 1: 50 000 map 2729 DB
      Surface area                                130ha
      Estimated capacity:                         17Mm³
      Estimated MAR at dam                        17Mm³
      Estimated yield (80% assurance)             11 Mm³/annum
                     Estimated cost               R184 M for the wall only
                     Estimated water cost:
                     Discounted                   97c/m³
                     Effective cost               207c/m³
                     Effective subsidized cost    148c/m³ (30 % subsidy)


        The main road to Memel will be inundated and needs to be priced into the equation. For the purpose of
        this study the dam near Lofdal is selected. However, construction of both dams may be proven to be the
        optimum solution.


        Dam V31D1- Buffalo river north of Madadeni


        A dam at this site has been proposed previously(1.3.2). A dam at this point has to be fairly large,
        minimum 160 to 200 Mm³ if it is upstream of the Ngagane confluence and minimum 200Mm³ to 250
        Mm³ if it is downstream of the Ngagane confluence, in order for the dam to have a reasonable life. This
        size of dam will inundate a substantial possible irrigable area and also substantial infrastructure, inter-
        alia, some of the Yscor grounds if it is upstream of the Ngagane confluence and some urban areas in
        Madadeni if it is downstream of the Ngagane confluence. It is therefore not investigated further in this
        study. It is expected that the economic viability will not be very favorable.


2.3.7.2.2   KZ253 – Utrecht


      Dam V31 B1- upper Buffalo


      This potential dam is situated on the farms Tigerkloof 399 and Kreiger holm 3340 at approximate
      coordinates: 29°55 East: 27°29 South. Refer to 1: 50 000 map 2729BD
      Surface area                                300ha
      Estimated capacity:                         42 Mm³
                                                   54

Estimated MAR at dam                        46 Mm³
Estimated yield (80% assurance)             30 Mm³/annum
               Estimated cost               R127 M for the wall only
               Estimated water cost upper Buffalo dam:
               Discounted                   25c/m³
               Effective cost               52 c/m³
               Effective subsidized cost    47 c/m³ (30 % subsidy)


The dam wall at this site can most likely be raised economically, as the side slopes of the gorge continue
upwards at the same angle. Only a detailed analysis taking into consideration its intended use, silt load,
inundated infrastructure etc, will determine its optimum height. The estimated MAR is also conservative
at this stage, as the effect of the Zaaihoek dam is not established and it is assumed to capture all the runoff
up to its location. The upstream future requirement of the Volksrust/Charlstown area needs to be
considered with the detailed analysis.


Dam V32G2- Blood river


This potential dam site is situated on the farm Weltevrede 182 in the Blood river at approximate
coordinates: 30°30 East; 27°46 South. Refer to 1: 50 000 map 2730DA
Proposed wall height:                       30 m
Proposed wall length:                       400 m
Surface area                                130ha
Estimated capacity:                         11 Mm³
Estimated MAR at dam                        11Mm³
Estimated yield (80% assurance)             7 Mm³/annum
               Estimated cost                                  R79 M for the wall only
               Estimated water cost:
               Discounted                             65c/m³
               Effective cost                         140c/m³
               Effective subsidized cost 100c/m³ (30 % subsidy)


 This dam site is upstream of the existing Blood River Dam, which is east of the Vryheid-
 Dundee road. Any development upstream of the existing dam should take its utilization into
 account, as the “first come-first serve” principle applies in water division. An extensive
 wetland area exist downstream of this site and an environmental scoping will thus be required
 before costs are incurred to investigate this site any further. See comments here below
 regarding a potential dam site V32G1, just downstream of this site.
                                                55

Dam V31D1- Buffalo river north of Madadeni


A dam at this site has been proposed previously(1.3.2). A dam at this point has to be fairly large,
minimum 160 to 200 Mm³ if it is upstream of the Ngagane confluence and minimum 200Mm³ to 250
Mm³ if it is downstream of the Ngagane confluence, in order for the dam to have a reasonable life. This
size of dam will inundate a substantial possible irrigable area and also substantial infrastructure, inter-
alia, some of the Yskor grounds if it is upstream of the Ngagane confluence and some urban areas in
Madadeni if it is downstream of the Ngagane confluence. It is therefore not investigated further in this
study. It is expected that the economic viability will not be very favorable.


Dam V32G1- Blood river dam 2


A dam at this site has been proposed previously. It is situated just downstream of the proposed site for
dam V32G2. (See discussion on dam V32 G2 above) A dam at this site will inundate a district road and
significant other infrastructure. This dam site has for this reason not been investigated further for this
study, but should be taken into consideration for further detailed studies. The capacity of a dam at this
site will be more than the capacity of the upstream dam, for a longer dam-wall of approximately the
same height. The yield will therefore be higher, also with the increased runoff at this point. The
intended use for dams VG32 G1/G2 and a detailed viability study will determine which site is the best
and what height is optimal for the dam-wall. It may also be considered to construct both dams. This
dam site is upstream of the existing Blood River Dam, which is east of the Vryheid-Dundee road. Any
development upstream of the existing dam should take its utilization into account, as the “first come-
first serve” principle applies in water division. An extensive wetland area exist downstream of this site
and an environmental scoping will thus be required before costs are incurred to investigate this site any
further.


Dam V32C1- Buffalo river upstream of the Dundee Vryheid road


A dam at this site has been proposed previously(1.3.2). A dam at this point has to be fairly large,
minimum 290Mm³ to 360 Mm³ in order for the dam to have a reasonable life, depending on other
possible dams upstream. This size of dam will inundate a substantial possible irrigable area. The
spillway cost of a dam at this site will be significant due to the large possible flood at this point. It is
also situated at the downstream extreme of the Amajuba district and pumping and infrastructure cost
will most likely be significant if the water is to be used in the Amajuba district. This site may however
become viable if it is proven economical to rather irrigate more suitable soil, if available, at higher
elevations than land adjacent to the river. A dam at this site may also be beneficial for downstream
riparian owners, outside of the Amajuba district. The yield of a dam this size will be more than 240
Mm³/annum (24000 ha irrigation) It is doubtful that 24000 ha of irrigable soil will be found in
economical proximity of the proposed site in the Amajuba district. However, if it is possible to find
                                                          56

        other users that could use the water (all the water) more profitable than the farmers, which land, will be
        inundated, it may become feasible.


        Dam W41 B1-Bivane River


        A dam site has previously been identified just upstream of the site mentioned here below, but the site at
        approximate coordinates 30°36’30 East; 27°34 South (refer to 1: 50 000 map 2730 DA) is preferred for
        this study. This site is situated on the eastern boundary of the Amajuba district and will not benefit the
        farmers of the Amajuba district, unless water is pumped to extreme heights. It may however benefit
        riparian farmers in the Zululand District. The Bivane river forms part of the Pongola river system and
        any new applications for water and new dams will only be considered when DWAF has completed a
        major study to establish the “reserve”


2.3.7.2.3   KZ254 – Dannhauser


        Dam V32 E1- Mzinyashana river north of Dundee


      This potential dam site is situated on the farm Lleta 4360 in the Mzinyashana river at approximate
      coordinates: 30°14 East; 28°03 South. Refer to 1: 50 000 map 2830AA
      Proposed wall height:                        30 m
      Proposed wall length:                        800 m
      Surface area                                 400ha
      Estimated capacity:                          36 Mm³
      Estimated MAR at dam                         34 Mm³
      Estimated yield (80% assurance)              20 Mm³/annum
                     Estimated cost                R73 M for the wall only (road and school to be relocated)
                     Estimated water cost:
                     Discounted                    21 c/m³
                     Effective cost                45c/m³
                     Effective subsidized cost     32c/m³ (30 % subsidy)


        A dam at this site will inundate a district road and a school. This site is situated at the eastern extreme
        of the Amajuba district, with the result that pumping and infrastructure cost may be significant. There
        may be a better site just downstream of this site, which will not inundate as much existing infrastructure
        and that may require a shorter dam wall. It is not possible to verify this from a 1: 50 000 map. It is most
        unlikely that more than approximately 400 ha of irrigable land would be found in economic proximity
        of this site in the Amajuba district. It will be important to find other uses for a dam at this site to make it
        economically viable.
                                                         57

       Dam V32C1- Buffalo river upstream of the Dundee Vryheid road
       A dam at this site has been proposed previously(1.3.2). A dam at this point has to be fairly large,
       minimum 290Mm³ to 360 Mm³ in order for the dam to have a reasonable life, depending on other
       possible dams upstream. This size of dam will inundate a substantial possible irrigable area. The
       spillway cost of a dam at this site will be significant due to the large possible flood at this point. It is
       also situated at the downstream extreme of the Amajuba district and pumping and infrastructure cost
       will most likely be significant if the water is to be used in the Amajuba district. This site may however
       become viable if it is proven economical to rather irrigate more suitable soil, if available, at higher
       elevations than land adjacent to the river. A dam at this site may also be beneficial for downstream
       riparian owners, outside of the Amajuba district. The yield of a dam this size will be more than 240
       Mm³/annum (24000 ha irrigation) It is doubtful that 24000 ha of irrigable soil will be found in
       economical proximity of the proposed site in the Amajuba district. However, if it is possible to find
       other users that could use the water (all the water) more profitable than the farmers which lands will be
       inundated, it may become feasible.


TABLE 2.3.7.2.5 - PROJECTED DEVELOPED CATCHMENT AVERAGE ANNUAL RUNOFF (2025)
WITH NEW DAMS, INDICATING ADDITIONAL IRRIGATION POTENTIAL, WITH NO
ADDITIONAL FORESTATION BUT HIGH DOMESTIC/INDUSTRIAL GROWTH.
No.   MAR Existing Name of Add. Domes.+ DCAAR Cum. Comment
            Irri. new pot. Yield Indust.+    DCAAR
                    dam     **    reserve

      (Mm³) (Mm³)               (Mm³) (Mm³)          (Mm³)    (Mm³)

V31A 121            5                           70       46      46    Slang river at Zaaihoek dam
V31B    79          6 V31 B1     30              1       42      88    Buffalo river upstream Ngogo river
V31C    55          2 V31C1      35              1       16     105    Buffalo river downstream Ngogo river
V31D    45          8                            1       36     241    Buffalo river downstream Ngagane river
V31E    99          9                           85        5       5    Ngagane river at Ntshingwayo dam
V31F    23          0 V31 F1     14              1        8       8    Horn river at Ngangane confluence
V31G    19          2                            1       16      30    Ngagane river downstream of Horn river
V31H    23          0 Ncandu     13              1        9       9    Ncandu river top
V31J    46          0                            1       45      54    Ncandu river at Ngangane confluence
V31K    20          3                            1       16     100    Ngagane river at Buffalo confluence
V32A    33          0                            5       28      28    Dorpspruit upstream Utrecht
V32B    51          4                            1       45     314    Buffalo downstream Dorpspruit
V32C    41          2                            2       37     351    Buffalo river upstream of Flint
V32D    41         12                            6       23     375    Buffalo river downstream of R33
V32E    64          2 V32 E 1   20*              2       40      40    Mzinyashana stream at Buffalo
V32F    14          6                            8        0     415    Buffalo river upstream Dundee/Nqutu road
V32G    68          0 V31 G1      7              2       59      59    Blood river to Dundee Vryheid road
V32H    32          0                            2       30      89    Blood river at confluence with Buffalo
V33A    41          0                            2       39     543    Buffalo river at Rorkes Drift
V33B    28          0                            2       26     569    Buffalo river at Ngxobongo confluence
V33C    34          0                            2       32     601    Buffalo river
V33D    34          0                            2       32     633    Buffalo river at Thukela confluence
Total 1010         60        0 119*            199      633
                                                       58


          The afforested Mean Annual Runoff (MAR) assuming the 2005 scenario has been used for this
         exercise. Existing irrigation of the year 2005 and the 2025 projected domestic + industrial +
         reserve(1.3.3) requirement were used to derive the balances.


         * It is estimated that only approximately 400 ha of land may be economically/practically
         suitable for irrigation from dam V32E1, in the Amajuba district. If other uses cannot be found
         for this dam it may not be feasible to construct it in the first place.


        **Multiply Mm³ by 100 for approximate potential irrigation water availability in ha. See earlier
        comments regarding irrigation requirements. These figures indicate yield potential only; it may
        not be possible in practice to utilize this yield for irrigation purposes. The soil may be of inferior
        quality or the capital required developing the irrigation schemes may make it uneconomical, or
        the pumping costs may be too high due the location of the irrigable soils.


         * It is estimated that only approximately 400 ha of land may be economically/practically
         suitable for irrigation from dam V32E1, in the Amajuba district. If other uses cannot be found
         for this dam it may not be feasible to construct it.



2.3.8    COMMENTS ON DOCUMENT SUBMITTED BY THE NRDC ON 13 JANUARY 2006:
         AMAJUBA WATER CATCHMENTS INFORMATION VERIFICATION MEETING
         RE: WATER AVAILABILITY
2.3.8.1 BACKGROUND
         The Amajuba Agricultural Sector Plan (draft report), by Ibhongo Consortium, was submitted in
          November 2005 to the Amajuba District Municipality for comments. The Ncandu River Dam
          Consortium (NRDC) is proposing the construction of a dam in the Ncandu River, which falls in the
          Amajuba District. On 13 January 2006 the NRDC submitted a document to the Amajuba District
          Municipality (ADM), with comments on the Water Availability section of the Ibhongo report. A
          meeting was convened on 13 January 2006, with representatives of the ADM, NRDC and IBHONGO
          present, to discuss the NRDC comments.


2.3.8.2 COMMENTS BY IBHONGO ON NRDC DOCUMENT


         Reference to the paragraph numbers refer to the numbers in the NRDC Document.


         Paragraphs 1 to 4 contain general background information and no comments are required.
                                                    59

       Paragraph 5 contains comments directly related to the Ibhongo report and warrants comments.


              5.1 –5.4 Yield of dams


       The NRDC has used the latest data and models available on water resources to re-calculate the
       estimated yields of the potential dams proposed in the Ibhongo document. They have obtained yields
       that are slightly less than what was obtained by Ibhongo. The maximum difference is less than 10 %.
       As stated in the Ibhongo document, yields were in the first place calculated based on information
       gleaned from 1:50 000 maps, as the budget did not allow for more detailed studies and the level of the
       study as requested by the ADM did not warrant in-depth studies. A 10% variation in terms of water
       resources estimation on this level is regarded as negligible and do not warrant any changes to the
       Ibhongo document. These variations will not effect the proposals contained in the Ibhongo
       document, at all. It is however recommended that the re-calculated yields by the NRDC be
       mentioned in the Ibhongo final document at the relevant places.


2.3.8.3 Paragraph 6. General comments


       All the statements are valid to a large extent, but do not require any action, as it will have no
       significant affect on the proposals made in the Ibhongo document. Most of the statements are
       already included in the draft report, such as the comment regarding the effect of the potential dams on
       the Thukela system. It has been stated clearly in the Ibhongo report that the Department of Water
       Affairs and Forestry (DWAF) should be involved in an early stage since no significant dam will be
       permitted without their approval. It would be in all stakeholders’ interest if DWAF were aware of the
       potential dam sites and potential water use. Their comments would be invaluable at an early stage. They
       are in the position to evaluate the potential dams and water uses from a Provincial and National
       perspective.


2.3.8.4 Paragraph 7. Summary


       The 119 Mm³ yield issue:


       Although simplified methods were used in the Ibhongo report to estimate dam yields in order to
       meet the budget, the accuracy has been proven to be more than adequate for the purpose it is
       intended to. The statement that it would not be likely that 119 Mm³ could become available if all
       the potential dams were constructed is not necessarily correct. None of the potential dams related
       to the mentioned 119 Mm³ is directly upstream of the other; all sites are in different catchments.
       It will however be necessary to do a systems analysis as mentioned, during the more detailed
       feasibility studies that will be required to refine the figures. It has already been mentioned in the
       Ibhongo report that the data have to be used with care and that further studies would be required,
                                                       60

       especially for potential dams that lies upstream of existing dams, such as the Blood River dams, as
       mentioned in the report. The mentioned 119 Mm³ is not of direct significance at this stage, since only
       the three most economical dams were proposed in the Ibhongo report for immediate further
       investigation, namely the Ncandu, Horn and Upper Buffalo dams. The other potential sites only
       highlight possibilities, although regarded as “unfeasible” at this stage. It is recommended that the
       discussion on the other potential sites remain in the Ibhongo document. As mentioned in the Ibhongo
       document, economic conditions may change that could make these dams viable. It is recommended
       that a preliminary systems analysis be undertaken in the more detailed studies to be conducted and that
       this is highlighted in the final Ibhongo report. The present Ibhongo draft report has already fulfilled its
       objective to indicate potential and to point out potential problems associated with the proposals.


       The issue with other potential dams:


       It is stated in the NRDC report that only the Ncandu and Horn River dams would be feasible and
       that only the potential Horn River Dam would warrant further investigation apart from the
       already “ accepted” and in-detail investigated Ncandu River Dam. We do not agree fully with
       this. The upper Buffalo River Dam seems just as feasible as the Horn River Dam at this
       preliminary stage. Only more detailed investigations will prove the real potential. The feasibility
       of all projects of a capital nature depends on the financing/subsidization thereof and could not
       merely be excluded from a study that is supposed to indicate potential. As mentioned in the
       Ibhongo report, other costs need to be considered such as compensation for infrastructure that
       will be inundated, access etc. These may prove, together with possible unavailable subsidization
       at that stage, that the potential dam would not be feasible. At this stage it is recommended that the
       Ibhongo report remains unchanged and that the potential Upper Buffalo River Dam be further
       investigated. It is also proposed that the discussion on the other dams remain in the report for future
       reference and may be further investigated in the future as the future financial situation may dictate.


2.3.8.5 Paragraph 8. Conclusions and recommendations
       We do not agree that the Ncandu River Dam is necessarily the only viable potential dam. However, it
       seems at this stage that it is the most viable option and that it should be constructed first. The viability
       for the end user of the other potential dams will largely depend on the amount of subsidization/grant
       funding and cannot be discarded at this stage without endeavoring to source funds for their further
       investigation and possible construction.


       It is however of the utmost importance at this stage that funds be utilized sensibly on the potential
       projects with the best chance for success and that funds are not spend on infrastructure that is deemed
       required for dams that is not fully investigated, viable and approved by DWAF and other stakeholders.
                                                            61

             What is important at this stage is that the ADM should request DWAF to reserve water for
             agricultural use. An “incorrect” (but realistic) high figure at this stage would most unlikely have
             cost implications. It is therefore proposed that water be reserved on the basis that detailed
             analysis and DWAF approval would be required before implementation stage and that the
             figures are ratified at a later stage, as follows:


             Priority 1 (total 5700ha-Buffalo system)


                     1. Maximum 1400ha along the Horn/Ngagane rivers up to the Ngagane’s confluence with the
                         Buffalo River, downstream of the potential Horn and existing Ntshingwayo dams. Horn-
                         Buffalo system.
                     2. Maximum 1300ha along the Ncandu River up to the Buffalo confluence downstream of the
                         proposed Ncandu dam. Ncandu-Buffalo system.
                     3. Minimum 3000ha along the Buffalo River, downstream of the potential Upper Buffalo
                         river dam. The closer the areas are located to the dams the lower the conveyance losses will
                         be. At the same token the previously neglected areas around Madadeni should receive
                         serious attention. Some of the mentioned 3000ha will fall in the Utrecht Local Municipality
                         area, and further downstream also in the Dannhauser area. Buffalo system.


             Priority 2 (4600ha-Amajuba and 1600ha Umzinyathi) - least feasible dam sites/least benefit for
             Amajuba


                     1. 3500ha along the Ngogo and Buffalo rivers, downstream of the potential Ngogo dam/dams.
                         Ngogo-Buffalo system.
                     2. 700ha along the Blood River, downstream of the potential Blood River dams. Blood-
                         Buffalo system.
                     3. 400ha in Amajuba and 1600ha in Umzinyathi along the Mzinyashama River downstream
                         of the potential Mzinyashama River dam. Mzinyashama-Buffalo system.


2.4       Bioresource units


             The climate of the region is uniquely characterized by its rainfall, temperature, and humidity, which
             vary with altitude. The Bioresource Programme* as developed by the Department of Agriculture and
             Environmental Affairs (1995) provides an excellent platform of natural resource data for the Province
             of KwaZulu-Natal.


      Bioresource unit (BRU’s) areas


      The symbols and codes that have been used for the BRU’s are shown in Table 2.4.1 below.
                                                    62

TABLE 2.4.1 SYMBOL AND CODES OF THE BRU’S
Rainfall symbol       Rainfall (mm)            Physiographic             Name              Altitude range
                                                   code                                          (m)
       R                   <600                     A                    Coast                  < 450
       S                  601-650                   B                  Lowlands               451 – 900
       T                  651-700                   C                   Uplands              901 – 1400
       U                  701-750                   D                  Highlands            1401 – 1 800
       V                  751-800                   E                  Montane              1 801 – 2000
      W                   801-850                    F                Escarpment                >2 000
                                                                       Montane
       X                  851-900
       Y                 901-1 100
       Z                  >1 100


  Examples of BRU codes
  2   Wc8 = This BRU has a range in rainfall of 801 – 850 mm and lies within an altitude range of
      901 – 1 400 m. This is the 8th occurrence of a BRU with the Wc code in KZN and the
      numbering is done from north-west (Charlestown) of KZN to the south-east (Port Edward).
  3   Wc2a & Wc2b = This indicates that two areas of BRU Wc2 will be found. They will both
      have the same inventory of natural resources
  4   WXc2 = The WX indicates that the BRU is situated within a rainfall zone of 801 mm to 900
      mm. Generally BRU codes have a range of 50 mm, but occasionally this has to be extended to
      a maximum of 100 mm.


      It should be borne in mind that the information depicts regional averages and not localized values (i.e.
      the effects of microclimate). To this end a host of maps have been produced on the climate parameters
      for the Amajuba District Municipality.


      The following maps have relevance:
      KZ252 – Newcastle


      MAP 010: Bioresource Groups,
      MAP 013: Bioresource Units,
      MAP 031: Mean annual rainfall,
      MAP 034: Mean maximum temperature,
      MAP 037: Mean temperature,
      MAP 040: Mean minimum temperature,
                                      63

MAP 043: Utah-7 chill units,
MAP 046: Frost incidence,
MAP 049: Heat units base 4.4oC,
MAP 052: Heat units base 5oC,
MAP 055: Heat unit base 10oC,
MAP 058: Evaporation A-pan, and
MAP 061: Climate capability rating.


KZ253 – Utrecht
MAP 011: Bioresource Groups,
MAP 014: Bioresource Units,
MAP 032: Mean annual rainfall,
MAP 035: Mean maximum temperature,
MAP 038: Mean temperature,
MAP 041: Mean minimum temperature,
MAP 044: Utah-7 chill units,
MAP 047: Frost incidence,
MAP 050: Heat units base 4.4oC,
MAP 053: Heat units base 5oC,
MAP 056: Heat unit base 10oC,
MAP 059: Evaporation A-pan, and
MAP 062: Climate capability rating.


KZ254 – Dannhauser
MAP 012: Bioresource Groups,
MAP 015: Bioresource Units,
MAP 033: Mean annual rainfall,
MAP 036: Mean maximum temperature,
MAP 039: Mean temperature,
MAP 042: Mean minimum temperature,
MAP 045: Utah-7 chill units,
MAP 048: Frost incidence,
MAP 051: Heat units base 4.4oC,
MAP 054: Heat units base 5oC,
MAP 057: Heat unit base 10oC,
MAP 060: Evaporation A-pan, and
MAP 063: Climate capability rating.
                                                         64

         The information from these maps has been incorporated with the crop requirement parameters and this
         information is used to establish the crop potentials. It should be understood that the climatic parameters
         for the crops are based on historical record and that the possible effects of climate change have not been
         taken into account.


2.4.1    Rainfall
         Refer to:
         KZ252 – Newcastle
         MAP 031: Annual rainfall


         KZ253 – Utrecht
         MAP 032: Annual rainfall


        KZ254 – Dannhauser
         MAP 033: Annual rainfall

         The distribution, reliability, and mean annual rainfall all have a bearing on the spatial distribution and
         type of agricultural enterprises that can be practiced in an area.


2.4.2    Temperature
         Refer to:
         KZ252 – Newcastle
         MAPS 034: Temperature - Maxims
         MAPS 037: Temperature - Mean
         MAPS 040: Temperature - Minimums




         KZ253 – Utrecht
         MAPS 035: Temperature - Maxims
         MAPS 038: Temperature - Mean
         MAPS 041: Temperature - Minimums



         KZ254 – Dannhauser
         MAPS 036: Temperature - Maxims
         MAPS 039: Temperature - Mean
         MAPS 042: Temperature - Minimums



         All crops grow and function between a minimum and a maximum temperature and perform best within
         an optimum range. For example, maize has an optimum temperature range of 18oC to 20oC for
         germination and an optimum of 24oC to 30oC for growth, respectively.
         The length of the growing season can be expressed in heat units.
                                                       65


2.4.2.1 Heat units
        Refer to:
       KZ252 – Newcastle

        MAP 049: Heat units base 4.4oC,
        MAP 052: Heat units base 5oC,
        MAP 055: Heat unit base 10oC,


       KZ253 – Utrecht
        MAP 050: Heat units base 4.4oC,
        MAP 053: Heat units base 5oC,
        MAP 056: Heat unit base 10oC,


       KZ254 – Dannhauser
        MAP 051: Heat units base 4.4oC,
        MAP 054: Heat units base 5oC,
        MAP 057: Heat unit base 10oC,


        A heat unit is based on accumulated mean temperature above a certain threshold value and below an
        upper limit above which growth is considered to remain static. This is obtained from the monthly mean
        temperature minus the base temperature multiplied by the number of days in that month. If the heat
        units are outside the suggested range, yields will probably be very poor.
        Examples of base temperatures and heat unit requirements are as follows:


        Maize (10 degrees)                       1500 – 1800 heat units during October to March
        Wheat (4.4 degrees)                      1150 – 1500 heat units during May to September
        Soybeans, dry beans (10 degrees)         1100 – 1800 heat units during October to March
        Cow peas (10 degrees)                    1700 – 2000 heat units during October to March
        Ground nuts (10 degrees)                 1600 – 2600 heat units October to March
        Cotton (10 degrees)                      2100 – 2700 heat units during October to March
        Sorghum (10 degrees)                     500 – 1100 heat units during October to March
        Sunflower (10 degrees)                   500 – 1100 heat units during October to March
        Lucerne (5 degrees)                      3000 – 5000 heat units per annum


2.4.2.2 Utah-7 chill units
        Refer to:
       KZ252 – Newcastle
        MAP 043: Utah-7 chill units


       KZ253 – Utrecht
                                                       66

        MAP 044: Utah-7 chill units


        KZ254 – Dannhauser
        MAP 045: Utah-7 chill units


        As in the above case on heat units certain crops need a certain amount cold or chill units within the
        dormant cold winter months so as to aid bud break. An example is peach trees, of which certain
        cultivars of peaches require chill units of above or below a certain norm. Use has been made of the
        Utah model to derive mean minimum monthly temperature. This model accumulates the number of
        hours below 7oC.


2.4.3   Evapotranspiration
        Refer to:
        KZ252 – Newcastle

        MAP 058: Evaporation


        KZ253 – Utrecht
        MAP 059: Evaporation


        KZ254 – Dannhauser
        MAP 060: Evaporation

        Evapotranspiration is the process whereby a crop “consumes” an amount of water by both transpiration
        from the leaves and evaporation from the soil surface. Evapotranspiration is affected by temperature,
        humidity, and wind. Optimum yields cannot be obtained unless moisture lost through
        evapotranspiration is replenished by rain or irrigation. The amount of water evapotranspired by most
        crops at the peak rate of demand is approximately equal to the amount evaporated from a Class A
        Evaporation Pan. At different stages of plant growth, however, the evapotranspiration of a crop is often
        less than the pan evaporation. This difference is accounted for by using crop factors.


2.4.4   Climate capability classification
        Refer to:
        KZ252 – Newcastle
        MAP 061: Climate capability rating



        KZ253 – Utrecht
        MAP 062: Climate capability rating


        KZ254 – Dannhauser
        MAP 063: Climate capability rating
                                                    67

      To summarize the foregoing it is imperative that the information can be presented into a meaningful
      map. To produce this map use has been made of a rating system that is tabulated in the table below. The
      map that has been produced for the three municipalities typically shows the more favorable areas for
      crop production within Newcastle region. In essence it is important to understand that there is variation
      within the district and that agricultural advice needs to be sought from qualified agriculturalists
      concerning matters of cultivars choice etc.


TABLE 2.4.5.1 - CLIMATE CAPABILITY CLASSIFICATIONS


   CLIMATE             LIMITATION RATING                                     DESCRIPTION
  CAPABILITY


       1                     None to slight          Local climate is favorable for good yields for a wide range of
                                                     adapted crops throughout the year.


       2                         Slight              Local climate is favorable for a wide range of adapted crops
                                                     and a year round growing season. Moisture stress and lower
                                                     temperatures increase risk and decrease yields relative to C1.


       3                   Slight to moderate        Slightly restricted growing season due to the occurrence of
                                                     low temperatures and frost. Good yield potential for a
                                                     moderate range of adapted crops.


       4                       Moderate              Moderately restricted growing season due to low temperatures
                                                     and severe frost. Good yield potential for a moderate range of
                                                     adapted crops but planting date options more limited than C3


       5                   Moderate to severe        Moderately     restricted   growing     season    due    to   low
                                                     temperatures, frost and/or moisture stress. Suitable crops may
                                                     be grown at risk of some yield loss.


       6                         Severe              Moderately     restricted   growing     season    due    to   low
                                                     temperatures, frost and/or moisture stress. Limited suitable
                                                     crops which frequently experience yield loss.


       7                  Severe to very severe      Severely restricted choice of crops due to heat, cold and/or
                                                     moisture stress.


       8                      Very severe            Very severely restricted choice of crops due to heat and
                                                     moisture stress. Suitable crops at high risk of yield loss.
                                                      68

2.5     Soils and veld classification of available land

2.5.1   Geology
        Refer to:
        KZ252 – Newcastle
        MAP 064: Geological information


        KZ253 – Utrecht
        MAP 065: Geological information


        KZ254 – Dannhauser
        MAP 066: Geological information


        The geology of the area can be described as consisting mainly of shales (with coal in certain instances),
        mudstones, sandstone and siltstones of the Ecca Group, Karroo Sequence, with intrusive dolerite. In
        essence this geology has given rise to many of the in situ characteristics of soils that are found in the
        area.


        Generally speaking soils derived from shale/mudstone are usually high in clay (>25%) while those
        derived from the sandstone/siltstone geology are low in clay (<15%). The dolerite derived soils are
        usually red in colour and have a clay percentage of >30%.


2.5.2   Slope and elevation
        Refer to:
        KZ252 – Newcastle
        MAP 067: Slope


        KZ253 – Utrecht
        MAP 068: Slope

        KZ254 – Dannhauser
        MAP 069: Slope


        A slope and elevation graphic representation (Maps 14 & 15) has been produced from the spatial data
        using 3-D spatial analysis. The importance of these maps depicts the slope categories where different
        types of crops can and cannot be grown. The slope categories follow the conservation law of the
        Province and can be used by agriculturalists for farm planning.


2.5.3   Soils
        Refer to:
        KZ252 – Newcastle
        MAP 073: Land type – soils
        MAP 076: Soil suitability
                                                  69

MAP 079: Potential soil erosion hazard
MAP 082: Good cropping soils
MAP 085: Cultivated areas
MAP 088: Grazing capacity


KZ253 – Utrecht
MAP 074: Land type – soils
MAP 077: Soil suitability
MAP 080: Potential soil erosion hazard
MAP 083: Good cropping soils
MAP 086: Cultivated areas
MAP 089: Grazing capacity

KZ254 – Dannhauser
MAP 075: Land type – soils
MAP 078: Soil suitability
MAP 081: Potential soil erosion hazard
MAP 084: Good cropping soils
MAP 087: Cultivated areas
MAP 090: Grazing capacity


The soils of Amajuba are very varied and the soil potentials therefore are also varied. The basis on
which the analysis for Amajuba has been done has been to use the information from the BRP. The base
information around which the soils part of the BRP founded relates to the original work done on the
Tugela Basin and the Land Type maps for the area.


The scales of the various surveys were not done on a micro scale (< 1:10 000) and therefore this should
be taken cognizance of when assumptions are made regarding the produced maps. The maps that have
been produced are based on the BRP however the latest available land cover data has been used to
overlay on the data set. This has allowed for a more accurate figure of the total hectares that are
available for use suitability analysis and those areas that are currently cultivated.


From the map entitled “Good cropping soils” it is important to understand that the map suggests areas in
which the chances of finding good cropping soils are defined. Good arable soils are defined as soils on a
slope of less than 12%, with a texture of over 15% clay which have a depth of >500mm and includes
humic, well drained, alluvial and moderately drained plinthic soil forms. This does not mean that these
soils are irrigable soils as other sets of criteria are used to determine the irrigation suitability.


The typical soil problems that are found in Amajuba area are the following:
                                                        70

    -   In the higher rainfall regions of BRU’s highly leached soils occur which usually have a high acid
        saturation. This has an effect on crop performance; however this is easily rectified if determined by
        using the correct amount of fertilizer and following a liming programme.


    -   In the areas on the sandstone geology (i.e. BRU TUc1) due to the inherent low clay, leaching of
        nutrients is prevalent (notably mainly potassium and nitrogen). In addition wind erosion and soil
        compaction are further challenges.


    -   The soils that have a plinthic origin and are shallow tend to be susceptible to erosion especially if on a
        slope and water logging if found in the lower mid slope and foot slope positions.


        It is therefore imperative that a qualified pedologist be used to determine the soil potentials of a specific
        area. No agronomic enterprise should be allowed before a detailed soil survey has been done so that
        recommendations can be made regarding their use suitability.



2.5.4   Veld
        Refer to:
        KZ252 – Newcastle
        MAP 010: Bioresource Groups,
        MAP 013: Bioresource Units,


        KZ253 – Utrecht
        MAP 011: Bioresource Groups,
        MAP 014: Bioresource Units,


        KZ254 – Dannhauser
        MAP 012: Bioresource Groups,
        MAP 0115: Bioresource Units,


        Amajuba is divided into seven Bioresource Groups*(BRG’s) namely 8, 9, 11, 12, 13, 14, and 18. The
        table below shows the areas of the various BRG’s in Amajuba.
                                                       71

TABLE 2.5.4.1 - BIORESOURCE GROUP AREAS FOR THE AMAJUBA DISTRICT MUNICIPALITY
       BRG No.                  Amajuba (Ha’s)                   Total (Ha’s)                  Percentage
           8                         40430.2                       879379.9                         4.6
           9                         27422.1                       375311.6                         7.3
          11                         54314.5                       772487.9                         7
          12                         16023.6                        416295                          3.8
          13                         30751.6                        478034                          6.4
          14                         15820.1                       519301.7                         3


Explanation of the Bioresource Groups in Amajuba


BRG 8 Moist Highland Sourveld
       The mean annual rainfall varies from 800 mm to 1 265 mm and the temperature is between 11.5oC and
       16.6oC. The rainfall is reasonably reliable. Summers are cool and winters cold, with severe to very
       severe frost. Snow is experienced occasionally, more frequently on the high-lying areas. The growing
       season is short, hail is a hazard and hot “Berg” winds increase the risk of serious fires.


BRG 9 Dry Highland Sourveld
       Droughts are quite frequent occurrences and the mean annual rainfall varies from 620 mm to 816 mm,
       with the lower extremes in the Newcastle area. Snow is infrequent. The mean annual temperature varies
       from 12.9oC to 15.6oC.


BRG 11 Moist Transitional Tall Grassveld (Transitional Tall Grassveld)
       The mean annual rainfall is from 800 mm to 1 116 mm. Mists are a frequent occurrence. The mean
       annual temperature varies from 15.0oC to 18.7oC. Frosts are generally moderate, but occasional severe
       frosts do occur.


BRG 12 Moist Tall Grassveld
       The mean annual rainfall varies from 712 mm to 805 mm. There are 3 to 4 ecologically dry months.
       The mean annual temperature varies from 15.3oC to 18.9oC. Occasional drought periods occur during
       the summer, frosts are moderate to severe, and hailstorms are experienced.


BRG 13 Dry Tall Grassveld
       The mean annual rainfall varies from 666 mm to 745 mm and there are 4 to 5 ecologically dry months.
       The rainfall is not reliable and is poorly distributed. The mean annual temperature varies from 15.6oC to
       19.0oC and frost ids moderate to severe.
                                                     72

BRG 14 Sour Sandveld
       The Sour Sandveld has sandier soils than the Dry Tall Grassveld but the climate can be regarded as
       being similar to the climate of that BRG. The mean annual rainfall varies from 645 mm to 737 mm, and
       the mean annual temperature is between 14.7oC and 17.3oC.


BRG 18 Mixed Thornveld
       The Mixed Thornveld is located on the upper margin of the Tugela River Valley Bushveld. While the
       Mixed Thornveld is essentially a secondary veld invaded by Acacia spp, it is of great agricultural
       significance and requires separate treatment from the Dry Tall Grassveld. This BRG is of minor
       importance in Newcastle area.


       The mean annual rainfall varies from 650 mm to 786 mm, and there are 4 to 5 dry months. Rainfall is
       poorly distributed and droughts occur frequently. The mean annual temperature varies from 16.0 oC to
       18.1oC. Frosts are generally moderate, but severe frosts are experienced in some valleys.

2.5.4.1 Vegetation structure, Composition and Livestock Production Potential
       Refer to:
       KZ252 – Newcastle
       MAP 088: Grazing capacity
       MAP 178: Tall Fescue – irrigated
       MAP 181: Smuts Finger grass potential
       MAP 184: Kikuyu potential
       MAP 187: Eragrostis Curvula potential
       MAP 190: Vetiver suitability
       MAP 193: Flax suitability


       KZ253 – Utrecht
       MAP 089: Grazing capacity
       MAP 179: Tall Fescue – irrigated
       MAP 182: Smuts Finger grass potential
       MAP 185: Kikuyu potential
       MAP 188: Eragrostis Curvula potential
       MAP 191: Vetiver suitability
       MAP 194: Flax suitability


       KZ254 – Dannhauser
       MAP 090: Grazing capacity
       MAP 180: Tall Fescue – irrigated
       MAP 183: Smuts Finger grass potential
                                                       73

       MAP 186: Kikuyu potential
       MAP 189: Eragrostis Curvula potential
       MAP 192: Vetiver suitability
       MAP 195: Flax suitability


       For practical veld management purposes, Bioresource Groups with similar veld management
       requirements have been combined.


BRG’s 8 & 9 Moist and Dry Highland Sourveld


Livestock Production Potential
       Grass growth is rapid in spring and early summer. During this rapid growth phase, the grass tends to be
       highly nutritious and palatable to livestock, but as the grasses mature, they lose their nutritive value and
       become less palatable. This process generally starts at the beginning of February, and it is therefore
       essential that good-quality licks be supplied to livestock at this time of the year to ensure continued gain
       in animal mass. By June, the quality of the grass is so low that few classes of animals would be able to
       maintain mass, even when supplied with a good-quality lick. Only those animals with the lowest
       nutritional requirements remain on the veld during winter (e.g. hamels)


       For these reasons, these Bioresource Groups are considered to be sourveld, which provides forage for
       only six to eight months of the year. Despite the relatively short grazing season, Highland Sourveld has
       a high livestock production potential, and many breeds of cattle are well adapted to the area. Dairy
       cows do not produce well due to the rapid fall in the quality of veld as the season progresses.


       In spring and early summer, however, live mass gains of growing animals (e.g. heifers and steers) can
       be as high as 1 kg/day, provided that sufficient grazing is available. The Highland Sourveld is also an
       important beef-breeding area, where spring-born calves are weaned in autumn at between 180 and 220
       kg.


       Veld management practices applied to maintain the grassland for optimal sheep performance often
       results in the deterioration of the veld. Examples of these practices include:


   -   burning the veld in winter (end of July or early August) and grazing with sheep as soon as regrowth
       commences; and
   -   burning the veld in late summer/early autumn to provide “out of season” regrowth for ewes and their
       lambs during autumn and winter.


       Both these practices lead to a general decline in the species composition, and thus the livestock
       production potential of the veld. Where sheep are used they should be grazed together with cattle at a
                                                       74

       ratio of not less than one Animal Unit (AU) of cattle to each AU of sheep. This generally means that a
       maximum of 5 to 6 mature sheep could be grazed together with one mature head of cattle. The cattle are
       usually less selective, and remove the bulky material that is usually avoided by sheep. The grass is
       therefore maintained in a short condition, which is better suited to sheep grazing. With judicious
       management, the Highland Sourveld has the potential to be extremely productive.


BRG’s 11 and 12


Vegetation structure and composition
       The vegetation may be described as a short to tall, open grassland, often with tall Acacia sieberana
       (paperbark thorn) trees scattered throughout. The grasses often reach a height in excess of 1 m. Fire has
       played a major role in maintaining the area as a grassland, in the absence of which, it would initially
       become dominated by acacias. Grazing also plays a role, and it is the interacting effects of fire and
       grazing that maintain the Moist Tall Grassveld as grassland suited extensive livestock production. The
       incorrect use of fire, combined with poor grazing practices, however, often reduces the livestock
       production potential of the veld.


Livestock Production Potential
       Rainfall tends to be unreliable, particularly in the spring. Grass growth may commence as late in the
       season as October, and is normally slow until after the first good rains in early summer. New growth is
       highly nutritious and palatable to livestock. However, as the grass matures, it loses its nutritive value
       and becomes less palatable, although not to the same extent as in the moister, cooler grassveld areas
       such as in the Highland Sourveld. The decline in grass quality usually begins at the beginning of
       February, and it is therefore essential that good-quality licks be supplied to livestock at this time of the
       year to ensure continued animal mass gains. When rains occur early in spring (thus ensuring early-
       season grass growth), this type of grassveld provides grazing for about 9 to 11 months of the year (i.e.
       September/October to June/July). Most classes of animals are able to maintain mass when supplied with
       a good-quality lick during the winter months.


       For these reasons, the grazing in the Moist Tall Grassveld is considered to be “mixed” (i.e. it provides
       forage for 9 to 11 months of the year). In general terms, cattle are the animals which are best adapted to
       using and maintaining this grassland, and this veld type is best adapted to the breeding, and, to a certain
       extent, the fattening of cattle. In spring and summer, growing animals (e.g. heifers and steers) can
       produce live mass gains of up to 1 kg/day, provided that sufficient grazing is available. Weaners of
       between 200 and 240 kg may be produced, and tend to be slightly heavier (approximately 20 kg) than
       those produced in the Highland Sourveld (mainly because they can be weaned later in the season). An
       important consideration is that the winter supplementary feeding period for the breeding is short
       (provided early rains occur), and therefore less expensive than during the same period in the Highland
       Sourveld.
                                                      75

       These Bioresource Groups are not generally suited to sheep production. In certain areas, sheep can be
       incorporated into the system, provided the ratio of cattle to sheep (in terms of Animal Units) always
       favors cattle. Goat production becomes important in areas where woody bushes and shrubs provide
       sufficient browse for a contribution to animal production. Table 7 expresses the veld management
       norms and general information for these BRG’s.
BRG’s 13 and 14


Vegetation structure and composition


Dry Tall Grassveld (BRG 13)
       A large proportion of the veld within this vegetation type comprises old lands which are now dominated
       by Hyparrhenia hirta (common thatch grass). Undisturbed veld is usually sour, and is dominated by
       Tristachya leucothrix (trident grass) and Themeda triandra (red grass), often with many forbs. Scrub
       forest patches may be found in sheltered situations (rocky, fire-protected slopes or moist, southern
       aspects). Bushveld dominated by Acacia Karroo (sweet thorn), but including many other species, is
       found in areas adjacent to river valleys.


       Soil plays an important role in determining species composition and veld condition. The red or black
       topsoils derived from the dolerite are particularly resistant to erosion and to disturbance due to grazing.
       Yellow-brown soils over plinthic subsoil are moderately resistant while grey soils over a plinthic
       horizon produce veld that has a low resistance to grazing pressure. The shallow duplex soils that are
       common in this BRG have a particularly low resistance to grazing pressure and generally the veld based
       on these soils is in a poor condition and erosion is a common occurrence on these soils.


Sour Sandveld (BRG 14)
       This vegetation type occurs on shallow, sandy, poorly-drained soils, and is essentially a sourveld
       dominated by Tristachya leucothrix (trident grass). Other grass species, typical of sourveld vegetation,
       are common and include Alloteropsis semialta, Monocymbium ceresiiforme, Digitaria tricholaenoides,
       Harpochloa flax and Setaria nigrirostris. Soils vary considerably from deep sands to shallow poorly
       drained sands and this is reflected by the species composition of these areas.


       Heavy grazing pressure results in an increase in the abundance of Aristida spp., Cynodon dactylon,
       Eragrostis spp., and Sporobolus spp. Elionurus muticus shows an increase in abundance in veld that has
       been selectively overgrazed by sheep.
                                                        76

Livestock Production Potential


Dry Tall Grassveld (BRG 13)
       The animal production potential of the Dry Tall Grassveld is low relative to other grassveld areas, due
       to the low and erratic rainfall, the poor soils and the often-degenerate nature of the grass sward.
       Generally, the vegetation provides fair grazing in spring before the sward grows out. This is particularly
       true of the old lands that have become dominated by common thatch grass. Cattle production potential
       is only moderate (steers, for example, are able to gain in the region of 120 to 130 kg during the summer
       at a stocking rate of about 3 ha/AU). Nitrogen containing licks are needed to prevent excessive mass
       loss in animals during the winter, unless farmers are able to provide sufficient winter fodder. Sheep
       production has a higher potential, provided that management is good, as badly managed sheep
       enterprises tend to induce veld deterioration.


Sour Sandveld (BRG 14)
       In the Sour Sandveld the livestock production potential of the natural Grassveld is somewhat lower than
       in the Dry Tall Grassveld. Here, growing steers are able to gain no more than about 100 kg during the
       summer season at a stocking rate of about 4.5 ha/AU. Winter mass losses are likely to be greater than in
       the Dry Tall Grassveld and greater provision, in the form of supplementary feeding, has to be made for
       the winter season.


Mixed Thornveld (BRG 18)
       The dominant plant association was a Themeda-Hyparrhenia grassland with sparsely scattered Acacia
       sieberana trees. However, this grassland has changed in species composition and structure due to poor
       grazing and burning management which has resulted in the invasion of Acacia Karroo and A. Nilotica
       with extensive areas of bush land and bush land thicket.


Livestock production potential
       Much of the Mixed Thornveld has good potential for animal production. Steers are able to gain 120 to
       130 kg during the summer. Veld in moderate condition has a carrying capacity of 3.5 ha/AU. Where
       bush encroachment has occurred, the possibility of introducing browsers in the form of goats can raise
       the potential for animal production, using the grassland with grazing animals and the woody species
       with browsers. Management of a high quality is necessary to successfully apply this type of farming.
       Table 9 expresses the veld management norms and general information for these BRG’s.


Some considerations on veld management for the small scale farmer
       Much of the grazing land is in poor to moderate condition, particularly in the communal areas where it
       is difficult to implement a veld management system. This situation leads to unsatisfactory veld
       production and accelerated loss of water and soil.
                                                          77

         Stocking rate has the greatest impact on veld condition and animal performance On farms where
         commercial livestock production systems are followed the average stocking rate on veld is 3.5 ha per
         AU which is well within the recommended norms. In the communal grazing areas the average stocking
         rate is 1.8 ha/AU. Studies have shown that such stocking rates would inevitably lead to deterioration in
         veld condition, particularly in areas that receive low and erratic rainfall.


Importance of veld condition
         Veld condition reflects the vigor and productivity of veld, relationships which have been well illustrated
         in studies at the Free State University where veld was monitored over 15 years to measure differences
         among sites with different veld conditions. The average rainfall over the period was 520 mm. The
         results of the study are given in Table below.


TABLE 2.5.4.1.1 - THE EFFECT OF VELD CONDITION ON RUNOFF, SOIL LOSS, WATER USE
EFFICIENCY (WUE) AND DRY MATTER PRODUCTION OFF VELD IN A 500 TO 550 mm PER
ANNUM RAINFALL AREA
                                                                  Veld condition
                                         Good                        Moderate                      Poor
Veld condition score %                    96.7                          69.0                       31.3
Basal cover %                             9.0                            6.0                        3.0
Runoff on a 4% slope                     4.8%                           6.8%                      10.2%
Soil loss per ha (tons)                   0.6                            1.4                        3.9
WUE (kg DM per mm                         2.1                            1.2                        0.6
rain / ha)
Grass production (kg DM                  1 022                           598                       281
/ ha)


How to improve veld production in communal areas
         An understanding of veld management principles is required to ensure acceptable livestock production
         whilst maintaining the productivity of veld. It must be stressed that there are no fixed recipes. Specific
         areas of a grazing system must be treated as separate entities each with their own potential for animal
         production. However, in the communal areas it is often not practical or possible to implement a veld
         management system that applies to all of the principles. Thus the veld management principles need to
         be discussed in the communal area context.


Separate veld types
         Areas with different palatability and grazing potential should be demarcated. This will depend on
         aspect, slope, soil type and rainfall. The most effective means of separating veld types is fencing.
         However, in the communal areas, features such as streams, ridges, mountains and realigned roads could
                                                        78

        be used. The area boundaries could also be marked, for example, with white stones. Where fences do
        not exist herders should be employed to implement an appropriate grazing and resting system.


Grazing capacity
        Stocking within the grazing capacity of the veld is an important grazing principle because this directly
        dictates the calving or lambing percentage, weaning mass and percentage off-take of animal products.
        An “economic” stocking rate would optimize production but in the communal areas an “ecological”
        stocking rate occurs because numbers of animals are more important than production for direct
        financial gain. It is therefore up to the community to decide whether they wish to implement an
        “economic” or an “ecological” stocking rate. However, the inevitable consequence of implementing an
        “ecological” stocking rate is a decline in veld condition and, ultimately, a reduction in the potential of
        the veld for livestock production


Resting of veld
        Frequent intensive grazing reduces grass vigor and yield. In order to maintain the vigor of the veld, it is
        essential to rest the vegetation for the entire growing season at least once in 4 years.


        In the communal areas the implementation of this principle could have a marked beneficial effect on
        veld production. This would mean that at least one quarter of the veld should be rested every year. In
        uniform veld all that would be required is to divide the area into four equal areas. Where a number of
        veld type units (VTU’s) are involved, each demarcated area should, as far as possible, have the same
        grazing capacity and VTU’s represented. The rested veld would be an invaluable source of fodder
        during the winter.


Prevent top layer accumulation
        Due to selective grazing, unpalatable residual herbage accumulates and becomes moribund. This
        applies particularly to sourveld after a period of rest where the veld should be burnt. However, in the
        communal areas this should only constitute a problem where an “economic” stocking rate is
        implemented.


Bush encroachment
        In the savanna areas, where bush is either encroaching or thickening up grass production is
        detrimentally affected due to competition from the trees. Preventative measures such as providing a hot
        burn or chemical control are seldom necessary in the communal areas as chopping trees for firewood
        and the browsing of goats are excellent control measures.
Livestock ratios
        Veld grazed by sheep alone will invariably deteriorate unless it is frequently rested. This is due to the
        selective grazing habit of sheep. Veld will however be better utilized where cattle and sheep are run
        together on the same area in a ratio of at least 1 AU (Animal Unit) of cattle to 1 AU of sheep (6 sheep).
                                                       79

       In the communal areas the grazing of cattle and sheep together could be achieved. Also, because the
       number of cattle (on an AU basis) carried on communal grazing lands exceeds that of sheep, the
       livestock ratio would be in favour of cattle.


Stocking intensity
       In situations where it is where it is possible to operate a multicamp system and, in particular, where it is
       difficult to demarcate areas with the same size or grazing capacity, it is necessary to ensure that the
       stocking intensity for all camps/grazing areas is similar. The stocking intensity is expressed in grazing
       days per ha (GDH).
       To achieve this the period of stay for each grazing area must be established. The grazing period or
       period of stay is obtained by multiplying the carrying capacity of the grazing area by the grazing cycle
       and dividing this by the carrying capacity of the total area allocated for grazing (excluding the rested
       area). An example, based on a four-camp/grazing area system, is given in the table below.


TABLE 2.5.4.1.2 - THE EFFECT OF VARYING CAMP (OR GRAZING AREA) SIZE AND
CARRYING CAPACITY ON THE PERIOD OF STAY TO MAINTAIN SIMILAR
STOCKING INTENSITY AMONG CAMPS
Camp number       Area of camp Carrying                  Grazing cycle       Period of stay Stocking
                  ha                  capacity AU                            days                intensity
                                                                                                 GD/ha
      1                  40                  20                  42                  14                  25
      2                  30                  15                  42                  11                  25
      3                  50                  25                  42                  18                  25
      4                  20                  10                 Rest                 -                   -
    Total               140                  70


       Camp 1 period of stay 14 days [20 AU x 42 days / (70 – 10 AU)]
       Camp 3 stocking intensity 25 GDH (70 AU x 18 days / 50 ha)


       From the above illustration it is obvious that if all camps or areas have a similar grazing capacity the
       period of stay would also be the same that would ease management considerably.


Conclusion
       The most important principle to be implemented in a communal area to improve veld production is the
       resting of the veld in rotation for the entire growing season. This rested veld could act as a fodder
       reserve during the winter period.
                                                        80

        To be able to rest the veld it will be necessary to demarcate areas where there are different veld type
        units. These veld type units should then be divided into four subdivisions of equal carrying capacity
        with each veld type unit being represented in each subdivision. Each subdivision would receive a full
        growing season’s rest (at least once every fourth year). As the veld improves there must not be a
        concomitant increase in the stocking rate because any veld improvement will be nullified.


        It is also important that all role players in the community agree on a veld management strategy and
        control of the veld management system in order for it to be successful.


2.6 Roads, electricity, railway lines
2.6.1   Roads


        Roads linking the Amajuba district to the neighboring districts and to the major markets are as follows:
        To Pietermaritzburg (vegetable and other markets/airport), Durban (export market/harbor/major
        airport):
        The Newcastle-Ladysmith and Glencoe-Ladysmith roads are in good condition and are capable to carry
        considerable road worthy heavy traffic.


        To Vryheid-Ulundi-Richardsbay (export harbor):
        The Newcastle-Utrecht-Bloodriver-Vryheid road to Richards bay is in good condition and is capable to
        carry considerable road worthy heavy traffic.


        To Pretoria-Johannesburg (vegetable and other markets/major airports):
        The Newcastle-Volksrust-Pretoria/Johannesburg road is in good condition and is capable to carry
        considerable road worthy heavy traffic. The Ladysmith/Johannesburg road is in good condition and
        comprises a highway from Ladysmith to Johannesburg/Pretoria. The Newcastle-Memel road to
        Johannesburg/Pretoria is also in a good condition.


        To Nqutu (vegetable and other markets):
        The Dundee and Blood river roads are in good condition and are capable to carry considerable road
        worthy heavy traffic.


        To Pomeroy and Tugela Ferry (vegetable and other markets):
        The Dundee-Pomeroy-Tugela Ferry road is in good condition and is capable to carry considerable road
        worthy heavy traffic.


        Internal roads are mostly gravel roads in fair to good condition and are capable to carry considerable
        road worthy heavy traffic.
                                                      81

        Tarred roads from Newcastle to Madadeni-Ozisweni-Utrecht, Newcastle-Utrecht-Blood river,
        Newcastle to Dunnhauser-Hattingspruit-Dundee, Newcastle to Madadeni-Osizweni-Hattingspruit-
        Dundee, Newcastle to Memel, Newcastle to Volksrust, Newcastle to Ladysmith, Newcastle to
        Normandien-Cundycleugh, are all in good to fair condition and are capable to carry considerable road
        worthy heavy traffic.
        The roads in the Amajuba district are generally serving their purpose at present. Roads that require
        upgrading are mostly situated in the former “homelands” area southeast of Madadeni-Osizweni.
        Should agricultural related enterprise be developed to a large scale in this previously neglected area,
        serious attention should be given to upgrade these roads. The Department of Transport is presently
        upgrading the road between Dundee and Osizweni, which was in a poor condition.


2.6.2   Electricity


        The Amajuba area is presently well covered in terms of electricity supply by Eskom. There are only a
        few areas that do not have spare capacity and which are under stress at present. Eskom is giving
        attention to that and has indicated that should the need arises, that they would be able to make the
        necessary upgrades.


        It is important to keep Eskom informed at all times of planned development, as it will assist their
        planners to make the correct long term decisions. As it is not feasible for Eskom to upgrade a network
        without tangible proof that development will in fact take place, Eskom generally requires an official
        request with a deposit, before they will practically attend to the request. It takes time to upgrade an
        electricity network and to supply a power point. It is therefore advisable to apply officially and pay
        the required deposit at least a year in advance.


        During the course of this study, the Planners of Eskom in Amajuba was made aware of the possible
        developments. It is important to share the outcome of this report with Eskom and to continue to
        provide them with information along the road of development.


2.6.3   Railway lines


        The railway network between Vryheid-Dundee-Ladysmith and Volksrust-Newcastle-Dundee is in a
        good condition and should theoretically be able to transport produce and agricultural related items at
        economical prices to the major markets in Pietermaristzburg/Duban/Johannesburg/Pretoria.


        The railway line from Newcastle-Madadeni-Utrecht is a private line belonging to a mining group. The
        line has not been used for months.
                                                       82

2.7 Markets and Agricultural related structures, silos, mills, abattoirs, pack houses.


        Refer to:

        MAP 003: Bio Diesel project
        MAP 005: Northern KZN markets

2.7.1   Local markets

Local markets are indicated in the table here below and comprise mainly traditional infrastructure such as grain
silos/mills, abattoirs.
                                                                                   83

                                                                                                                                              Planned future
Town         Company name            Location of business          Activities     Existing input/output                    Spare capacity                      Contact Number
                                                                                                                                              input capacity

                                     On Normandien side of the
                                     Ladysmith on the
Dannhauser   Waterfall Poultry                                     Produce eggs   Output of 1200 dozen eggs/day            Nil                Nil              034 621 2453
                                     Dundee/Ladysmith road near
                                     Ridgegate park.

                                                                                  Sorghum: 6000 to 7000 ton/year from
Dannhauser   Dannhauser Malt         Industrial area               Malt factory   Mpumalanga: Maize (yellow) : 500         Nil                Nil              034 621 2661
                                                                                  ton/year from Amajuba

                                                                                   1800 cattle/month, 5 sheep/month, 0
                                     55km from Newcastle on
                                                                  Abattoir - Class pig/month,       0     chicken/month
Dannhauser   Roadside Abattoir       Newcastle/Ladysmith road. At                                                       Nil                   Nil              034 621 2526
                                                                  B                maximum of 100 cattle/day = ±
                                     Sunset rest, on N11.
                                                                                   2000/month

                                     On Crossroads of
Dannhauser   Leicester Mill          Newcastle/Ladysmith/          Mill           66 to 75 ton maize/month                 1600 tons/month    Nil              034 377 7015
                                     Dannhauser road.

                                                                                  600 ton maize from silo's (Dannhauser,                      Continuously
Dundee       Bhubesi maize products 23 McKenzie street             Mill                                                    600 ton/year                        034 212 2389
                                                                                  Dundee, etc.)                                               expanding
             National Sorghum
Dundee                               Industrial area               Brewery        Malt from Mandeni                        Nil                Nil              034 212 4180
             Breweries
                                     Hattingspruit - between
Dundee       Farmers Brewery                                       Beer brewery   Ingredients from Austria                 Nil                Nil              034 218 1735
                                     Dundee and Dannhauser
                                     Farm Maybole. On
Dundee       CCC Feedlots            Vryheid/Dundee road. ± 2km Feedlot           ±14600 cattle/3 months                   Nil                Nil              034 212 3716
                                     outside Dundee

Glencoe      Glencoe Abattoir        On Ladysmith road at Glencoe Abattoir        100 sheep and cattle/day                 Nil                Nil              034 393 2225

                                                                   Mill, maize,                                            Yes, didn't want to
Glencoe      5 Star Milling          Industrial area                              Confidential                                                 Every 2 years   034 393 1844
                                                                   corn, bakery                                            specify
                                     Bergville, 45 Voortrekker
Ladysmith    Natal Agri(Bergville)                                 Silo           Confidential                             Nil                Nil              036 637 7003
                                     street
                                                                   Only a dry     Stock from Durban and Johannesburg.
Ladysmith    The SA Breweries        Industrial area                                                                  Nil                     Nil              036 633 2764
                                                                   depot          Couldn't say how much.
Ladysmith    Ladysmith Abattoir      Will not supply information                                                                                               036 637 2641
                                                                                  ± 200 tons maize/month from                                                  036 635 4289
Ladysmith    Intando Milling         Damskraal                     Mill                                                    Nil                Nil
                                                                                  Bronkhorstspruit.                                                            036 635 4288
                                                                                      85

                                                                                                                                                  Planned future
Town           Company name            Location of business           Activities     Existing input/output                       Spare capacity                    Contact Number
                                                                                                                                                  input capacity

                                                                                     1500 cattle/month, 3000 sheep/month
               Newcastle Abattoirs /   46 Marconi street Industrial                  max: 125 units per day, from Memel,
Newcastle                                                             Abattoir                                              Nil                   Nil              034 375 6861
               NN Abattoirs            area                                          Dundee, Vrystaat, Mpumalanga, Glencoe,
                                                                                     etc.)

               Matandu Chicken         5 km from Newcastle on the                    Is licensed to slaughter 1 000 chickens per                  Is busy expanding 034 315 4920
Newcastle                                                             Abattoir                                                   Nil
               Abattoir                Vrede road                                    day                                                          at the moment     034 315 1385

Newcastle      The Fruit Basket        Will not supply information                                                                                                 034 312 2515
Newcastle      Newcastle Mills         Will not supply information                                                                                                 034 312 1421

                                                                      Fruit and      ± R5 000 fruit and vegetables/week. Gets
Paulpietersburg Dumbe Fruit            Kings building, Hoog street    vegetable      fruit and vegetables from local people and Nil               Nil              034 995 2466
                                                                      market         market.

Paulpietersburg Dumbe grain            4 Geelhout Ave                 Silo/Mill      60 - 80 ton maize/month                     100 ton/month    Nil              034 995 2003

                                       On Newcastle road, ± 9 km,
Utrecht        Utrecht mills                                          Mill           130 ton maize/month                         1000 ton/year    Nil              034 331 4401
                                       turn left

                                       On Vryheid/Dundee road. 10                  500 tons maize/month from own                                  Busy upgrading at 034 982 1123
Vryheid        Big 5 Milling                                      Mill and feedlot                                               500 tons/month
                                       km from Vryheid                             production and other                                           the moment        034 981 3139

                                                                                     2500 cattle/month
Vryheid        Meadow meats            27 Bloekom street              Abattoir       130 sheep/month                             500 cattle       Nil              034 980 9635
                                                                                     40 pigs/month

               KZN Fruit & Vegetable                                  Fruit and      3 300 bags of Potatoes/week 3 000 bags
Vryheid                                265 Utrecht street                                                                        Nil              Nil              034 982 1192
               Wholesalers                                            vegetables     onions/week    50 bags cabbage/week

                                                                                     Fruit from Cape town Vegetables :
                                                                      Fruit and      tomatoes, cabbage from local farmers,
               Sondaleni Farm
Vryheid                                Utrecht street                 vegetables     onions from market or Cape town. ± 50 Nil                    Nil              034 983 2992
               produce
                                                                      market         bags     cabbage/day   ±   25   crates
                                                                                     tomatoes/day

                                                                                     22 000 chickens/year from Parys. 1 400
Vryheid        Stilwaters Poultry Farm 10 km west of Vryheid          Produce eggs                                               Nil              Nil              034 980 9309
                                                                                     dozen eggs/day

               Vryheid Groothandel                                                   7 cattle/week, 10-15 sheep/week                                               034 980 9370
Vryheid                                249 Boeren street              Butchery                                                   Nil              Nil
               Slagtery                                                              10-15 pig/week                                                                034 980 9371
                                                       86

2.7.2   Marketing and finance opportunities


       Markets


Large corporate entities in South Africa are under increasing pressure, in terms of Employment Equity plans,
social responsibility commitments and other forms of legislation, to procure agricultural raw materials from
Previously Disadvantaged producers. This offers emerging farmers an opportunity to enjoy access to large scale,
reliable, mainstream commercial markets for their produce.


South African Breweries (SAB) and Tiger Brands made the initial commitment to this process. This opens up
market access for barley and wheat (winter crops) and maize and soybeans (summer). There are additional
commitments from processors that require soybeans for the animal feed industry. Large scale vegetable retailers
(two) have indicated that they will, in co-operation with emerging farmers, design a production schedule for the
procurement of certain vegetables on a long term basis.


This process has now been extended to include livestock production and has the backing of certain large
commercial feedlots and national auctioneers who will ensure that emerging farmers enjoy the benefit of
commercial prices.


       Finance


The reliability, particularly in terms of credit worthiness, of these large-scale corporate entities, makes it
possible for off-take agreements with them to be used as a form of security. This led to the creation of the
Yandisa Empowerment Fund as a source of funding. The Yandisa product is designed to lend 100% of the
production credit required by emerging farmers on the basis of their off-take agreements with credit worthy
third parties. The Fund is a joint venture between Khula, Rand Merchant Bank and Afgri Capital and is
currently set at R 100 million per season.


       Project management


PSA Agrico (Pty) Ltd, an empowerment company that was instrumental in securing the SAB and Tiger Brands
off-take agreements and the design of the Yandisa product, will provide project management services for the
implementation of this empowerment venture. The Amajuba Agricultural Co-operative (AAC) will be tasked
with employing project mentors to train the emerging farmers to produce market related crops on a sustainable
basis with a view to making them self sufficient as soon as possible.
                                                      87

2.8 Agricultural organizations, role players-profiles, roles.


2.8.1   Agricultural Organizations.
        2.8.1.1 Department of Agriculture and Environmental Affairs
        2.8.1.2 KWANALU
                  Bloedrivier/Kingsley
                  Utrecht
                  Groenvlei
                  Ingogo
                  Newcastle
                  Normandien
        2.8.1.3 Amajuba Agricultural Co-operative (AAC)
        2.8.1.4 AFLED (Amajuba Forum for Local Economic Development)
        2.8.1.5 Local Farmers Associations
        1.8.1.6 NAFU


2.8.2 General
        It is necessary that all the role players including those mentioned under 2.8.1 above liaise with one
        another when planning and designing projects to ensure that optimal development is achieved. When a
        market stall is planned, then it is necessary to also take into account the available and potential
        suppliers and markets.
        In the past various projects were established where this was not taken into consideration and the
        participants abandoned these projects. There was no long-term sustainability.
        The number of participants in the projects must also be limited to such a number as to ensure
        profitability and growth.
        The assistance of all the role players must be sought to ensure that sustainable and profitable projects
        will be developed with the aim of developing the emerging entrepreneurs into successful business
        people.


        Any information on the above organizations can be obtained by contacting the Amajuba District
        Municipality.


2.9 Crops, forestation & pasturing

2.9.1   Annual Cash Crops
        The main commercial crops that are produced in Amajuba are the following:


        Maize, soybeans, peanuts, wheat, drybeans, potatoes, cabbage and in more recent times barely has been
        tried. Climatic crop yield potential maps have been produced for the current cash crops that are grown
        in Amajuba. It should be noted that these maps only show climatically suitable areas and that the soils
                                                   88

    have not been taken into account. Furthermore the potential yield has been defaulted to a 70%
    management level, which reflects good commercial management.


   Maize
    Refer to the following maps:
    KZ252 – Newcastle

    MAP 130: Maize potential – Dry land
    MAP 133: Maize potential – Irrigated


    KZ253 – Utrecht
    MAP 131: Maize potential – Dry land
    MAP 134: Maize potential – Irrigated


    KZ254 – Dannhauser
    MAP 132: Maize potential – Dry land
    MAP 135: Maize potential – Irrigated


    Maize the most important crop along with soybeans in the area and has been planted for many decades
    in Amajuba region. Since the mid-seventies maize yields have steadily increased. It is now not
    uncommon to hear of commercial farmers producing 10 -12 tons/ha for irrigated maize and 6 tons/ha
    dry land on the most suited soils.


    The price of maize has fluctuated dramatically especially since the advent of free marketing principles
    that were introduced in the late 1990’s. At the time of writing the price has fallen dramatically in the
    country and the immediate future for maize plantings is bleak.


    There is an estimated 8 500 hectares under maize production in Amajuba DM at present, the area of
    which will decline in the next planting season due to poor prices.


   Soybeans
    Refer to the following maps:
    KZ252 – Newcastle
    MAP 118: Soya potential – Dry land
    MAP 121: Soya potential – Irrigated


    KZ253 – Utrecht
    MAP 119: Soya potential – Dry land
    MAP 122: Soya potential – Irrigated


    KZ254 – Dannhauser
                                                   89

    MAP 120: Soya potential – Dry land
    MAP 123: Soya potential – Irrigated


    Soybeans started to take off in Amajuba in the early to mid 1980’s and were promoted by the then
    Department of Agriculture with their Soybean Competition as monocultural techniques were having a
    detrimental effect on the yields of maize. Soybeans have a beneficial effect due to their nitrogen fixing
    properties, amongst others. In the initial years productivity was low with yields of 0.75 – 1.5 tons/ha
    being realized on dry land plantings. The main problems in those formative years were a lack of
    suitable cultivars and a weedicide programme. Protein values were also low being between 35 – 38%.


    The advent of cultivar improvements especially the biotechnological ones have seen yields rise to 4.5 to
    5 tons/ha (irrigation) and 2.5 to 3.5 tons/ha along with a concomitant rise in protein (>46%). In addition
    the use of precision farming techniques by some farmers have seen yields under irrigation touch 6
    tons/ha. This technique shows great promise for the future of agronomy in general for Newcastle.


    Usually farmers in the area plant a third of their farm to soybeans and the other two thirds to maize.
    There is an estimated 3500 hectares under soybean production in Amajuba DM at present.


   Peanuts
    Refer to the following maps:
    KZ252 – Newcastle
    MAP 112: Peanut potential – Dry land
    MAP 115: Peanut potential – Irrigated


    KZ253 – Utrecht
    MAP 113: Peanut potential – Dry land
    MAP 116: Peanut potential – Irrigated


    KZ254 – Dannhauser
    MAP 114: Peanut potential – Dry land
    MAP 117: Peanut potential – Irrigated


    Peanuts have lost favour with commercial farmers in recent years due to it being labour intensive. They
    are more suited to the sandier soils of Newcastle but tend to have specific requirements crop rotational
    requirements. Wind erosion and eelworm infestations are a noted problem on lands planted to peanuts.


    Crop yields fluctuate dramatically due to the crop mainly being planted dry land. Yields of 1 to 1.75
    tons/ha are common. At present approximately 50 hectares are planted to the crop in Amajuba DM.
                                                    90

   Wheat
    Refer to the following maps:
    KZ252 – Newcastle
    MAP 145: Wheat potential – Irrigated


    KZ253 – Utrecht
    MAP 146: Wheat potential – Irrigated


    KZ254 – Dannhauser
    MAP 147: Wheat potential – Irrigated


    Wheat is an irrigated winter crop and has been planted in limited amounts in Amajuba area for many
    years. A common problem in the past has been birds that have decimated wheat fields. In addition the
    “take all” disease has manifested itself on some farms leading to crop failures. However better cultivar
    choice and field husbandry has led to promising yield increases. At present prices are conducive to
    profitable plantings and with crop yields in the order of 5 to 6 tons/ha plantings under irrigation will
    increase.
    At present it is estimated that 650 hectares are planted to irrigated wheat in Amajuba DM area.


   Drybeans
    Refer to the following maps:
    KZ252 – Newcastle
    MAP 100: dry bean potential


    KZ253 – Utrecht
    MAP 101: dry bean potential


    KZ254 – Dannhauser
    MAP 102: dry bean potential


    Small plantings are made of this mainly dry land crop in the area. The main problem with drybeans in
    the past concerned cultivar choice and poor disease resistance but great strides have been made in this
    regard towards improvement. However one of the major shortfalls for commercial farmers is the labour
    intensive aspect of harvesting.
    Despite the foregoing, farmers that have managed to partly mechanize the harvesting of the crop, report
    good financial returns. Typically 1 to 2.5 tons/ha are realized in the area.


    At present it is estimated that 870 hectares are planted to drybeans in Amajuba DM area.
                                                     91

   Potatoes
    Refer to the following maps:
    KZ252 – Newcastle

    MAP 103: Potato potential – January to April
    MAP 106: Potato potential – October to February
    MAP 109: Potato potential – September to January


    KZ253 – Utrecht
    MAP 104: Potato potential – January to April
    MAP 107: Potato potential – October to February
    MAP 110: Potato potential – September to January


    KZ254 – Dannhauser
    MAP 105: Potato potential – January to April
    MAP 108: Potato potential – October to February
    MAP 111: Potato potential – September to January


    Potatoes are a high input high-risk crop and plantings are not done on a large scale. Despite this both
    irrigated and dry land planting have been made with success. Judging the market is one of the problems
    with this crop as many a fortune has been won and lost due to fickle market trends.


    Potatoes are mainly suited to the higher and cooler areas of the Amajuba Districtl Municipality. Yields
    under irrigation vary from 50 to 100 tons/ha. It is difficult to estimate the area planted to this crop as the
    available statistics put it together with other vegetables. The estimated total area planted to vegetables
    in Amajuba DM is estimated at 440 hectares.


   Cabbage
    Refer to the following maps:
    KZ252 – Newcastle
    MAP 091: Cabbage potential – November
    MAP 094: Cabbage potential – October
    MAP 097: Cabbage potential – September


    KZ253 – Utrecht
    MAP 092: Cabbage potential – November
    MAP 095: Cabbage potential – October
    MAP 098: Cabbage potential – September


    KZ254 – Dannhauser
    MAP 093: Cabbage potential – November
                                                        92

        MAP 096: Cabbage potential – October
        MAP 099: Cabbage potential – September


        Cabbage is a cool season crop that can withstand moderate frosts and is fairly adaptable to high
        temperatures. It is planted under irrigation as a cash crop in Amajuba area. This crop is a high input
        crop and like potatoes is closely associated with market sentiment. Customers usually purchase directly
        off the farms. The main season for cabbage sales is August/September and May/June. Yields under
        irrigation vary form 30 tons/ha (conservative) to 55 tons/ha (average) to >80 tons/ha (good).


        Planting of cabbages varies from season to season and it is difficult to gauge the number of hectares
        planted.


       Barley
        Refer to the following maps:
        KZ252 – Newcastle
        MAP 148: Barley suitability


        KZ253 – Utrecht
        MAP 149: Barley suitability


        KZ254 – Dannhauser
        MAP 150: Barley suitability


        Barley is a recent crop that has been planted with reasonable success in Amajuba area. Areas that have
        been initially planted amounted to 500 ha but plantings in the present season (2005) are nil due to poor
        marketing prospects. However with the right marketing strategy this trend will be reversed as barley is a
        multi purpose use crop that can be used as flour, or to prepare malt for manufacturing beer and
        whiskey, malt syrup is also utilized for making candies, breakfast cereals, medicines and in the textile
        industry. The grains are also used for manufacturing pearl and powder products, which generally form
        the diet of sick people. Malt sprouts and by-products of brewing are used as feed for dairy cattle.
        Surplus grain provides feed for cattle and horses. Straw is also fed to cattle.


        Like wheat, barley does best in areas where winter is cool and the growing period lasts five months.
        Cultivated barley matures 2 to 3 weeks earlier than wheat and is capable of producing 5-7 tons/ha under
        irrigation.


2.9.2   Forestation
        Refer to the following maps:
        KZ252 – Newcastle
        MAP 199: Commercial forestation
                                                        93

        MAP 202: Pine potential - Patula
        MAP 205: Pine potential - Taeda


        KZ253 – Utrecht
        MAP 200: Commercial forestation
        MAP 203: Pine potential - Patula
        MAP 206: Pine potential - Taeda


        KZ254 – Dannhauser
        MAP 201: Commercial forestation
        MAP 204: Pine potential - Patula
        MAP 207: Pine potential - Taeda


        The amount of commercial forestry planted in Amajuba amounts to ___ hectares. Types of trees that are
        planted are mainly as follows:
    -   Pines (P.patula & P.taeda)


        Typical yields are as follows:
    -   Pines (P.patula & P.taeda) Annual incremental yields of pine can vary from 12 ton/ha to 18 ton/ha
        depending on rainfall, temperature and soils.


        The land under forestry has grown rapidly in the high rainfall areas over the last two decades. This was
        in accordance with the Strategic Development Plan for South Africa that was released by the
        Department of Environmental Affairs during September 1989.


2.9.3   Pasturing
        Refer to the following maps:
        KZ252 – Newcastle
        MAP 088: Grazing capacity
        MAP 178: Tall Fescue
        MAP181: Smuts Finger
        MAP 184: Kikuyu
        MAP 187: Eragrostis Curvula
        MAP 190: Vetiver
        MAP 193: Flax


        KZ253 – Utrecht
        MAP 089: Grazing capacity
        MAP 179: Tall Fescue
        MAP 182: Smuts Finger
        MAP 185: Kikuyu
                                                       94

         MAP 188: Eragrostis Curvula
         MAP 191: Vetiver
         MAP 194: Flax


         KZ254 – Dannhauser
         MAP 090: Grazing capacity
         MAP 180: Tall Fescue
         MAP183: Smuts Finger
         MAP 186: Kikuyu
         MAP 189: Eragrostis Curvula
         MAP 192: Vetiver
         MAP 195: Flax


         The main pastures that are planted in Amajuba area are shown in the table below. The under-mentioned
         pastures have mainly been used in the beef, dairy and sheep farming systems. Climate yield potential
         maps have been produced for most of the under mentioned pastures.


TABLE 2.9.3.1 - THE MAJOR PASTURE CROPS IN THE AMAJUBA DISTRICT MUNICIPALITY
AREA
Perennial pastures                                        Annual pastures
Eragrostis curvula                                        Eragrostis teff
Smuts finger grass                                        Oats
Fescue with and without a clover component                Forage sorghums
Ryegrass with and without clover component                Fodder radish
Kikuyu
Cynodon species


         The yields that can be expected are related to the fertility, moisture status and management levels. The
         table below gives an indication on what is currently achievable (average production).
                                                     95

TABLE 2.9.3.2 - YIELDS AND STOCKING RATE OF THE MAJOR PASTURE TYPES IN THE
AMAJUBA DISTRICT MUNICIPALITY AREA
                     Pasture type                                    Yield tons/ha / stocking rate
                   Eragrostis curvula                     8tons/ha (MAP600mm); 12tons/ha (MAP800mm);
                                                                       18tons/ha (MAP1000mm)
                   Smuts finger grass                                              10
                        Fescue                                                    7-11
                   Perennial ryegrass                                             7-11
                        Kikuyu                                                    9-13
                   Cynodon species                                                9-13
                         Oats                             14 ewes and lambs/ha (Dry land) 20ewes and lambs
                                                                               (Irrigated)
                   Forage sorghums                                           30-50(silage)
                     Fodder radish                                                5-15




2.10 Game farming

      Refer to the following maps:
      KZ252 – Newcastle

       MAP 208: Wildlife potential


      KZ253 – Utrecht
       MAP 209: Wildlife potential


      KZ254 – Dannhauser
       MAP 210: Wildlife potential


       Many commercial farmers have included a game factor in their farming system. This came from a need
       to diversify. Opportunities in the ecotourism industry and the biltong/trophy-hunting sector have been
       utilized with varying levels of success. Generally the trend has been to include the game factor with the
       existing beef enterprise in Amajuba although there are individual farmers that have gone for game
       farming in its entirety. There has been a greater shift to this enterprise in the northern areas of KZN
       than in Amajuba where farmers have completely converted their farming operations to the game
       industry.
       In Amajuba the game species that are suited to the different BRG’s are described in the table below.
                                                        96

TABLE 2.10.1 - GAME SPECIES THAT ARE SUITED TO THE DIFFERENT BIORESOURCE
GROUPS IN THE AMAJUBA DISTRICT MUNICIPALITY AREA
BRG number                                                  Description
    8      Game species that do well in this BRG are blesbok, eland, common reedbuck, mountain reedbuck, grey
           rhebuck, oribi, black wildebeest, red hartebeest, with grey duiker and bushbuck on forest verges. Common
           reedbuck have benefited from the extensive winter pastures in this BRG.
    9      Game species that do well in this BRG are blesbok, eland, common reedbuck, mountain reedbuck, grey
           rhebuck, oribi, black wildebeest, red hartebeest, with grey duiker and bushbuck on forest verges. Common
           Reedbuck have benefited from the extensive winter pastures in this BRG. Springbok were not originally
           found in this BRG, but could perform satisfactorily here.
    11     Game species include black wildebeest, red hartebeest, blesbok, oribi, common reedbuck with grey duiker
           and bushbuck in forest areas.
    12     Game species suited to this area include black wildebeest, red hartebeest, springbok, steenbok, blesbok,
           mountain reedbuck, common reedbuck, grey duiker, oribi and zebra.
    13     Game species suited to this BRG include blesbok, springbok, red hartebeest and black wildebeest in the
           grassland areas, and steenbok, zebra and impala in areas invaded by woody species.
    14     This BRG has a low potential for game species but these could include blesbok, springbok and black
           wildebeest. Because of the fragility of the veld numbers would have to be limited and animal and veld
           performance carefully monitored.
    18     With the bush encroachment that is the main feature of this BRG, the introduction of browsers in the form
           of goats and game can raise the potential for animal production, utilising the grassland with grazing
           animals and the woody species with browsers. Management of a high quality is necessary to successfully
           apply this type of farming. There is a potential for game farming, as the success of the Weenen Game
           Reserve indicates, and a wide range of species can be considered. Based on the results in this game
           reserve, game species include black and white rhino, blue wildebeest and impala (the latter two providing
           the veld is in good condition), buffalo, bushbuck, bushpig, eland, giraffe, grey duiker, red hartebeest,
           waterbuck [Weenen G.R.], klipspringer [rocky areas], kudu, mountain reedbuck, common reedbuck,
           steenbok, zebra, warthog and ostrich. The opportunity for tourism can be considered by land owners,
           because most of this BRG is ideally suitable, with ready access from the main centers of the Province.



2.11 Projects

        The Department of Agriculture and Environmental Affairs is the most prominent role-player of all
        Government Departments in so far as agricultural development is concerned. The Department of Public
        Works is also implementing agricultural projects as well as the Department of Welfare. Although
        meaning well, the latter two departments are not well equipped to deal with agricultural issues and one
        may expect that projects which they are implementing have less of a change for success. It would be in
        every one’s interest if Amajuba District Municipality can play a facilitating role in order to ensure that
        the Department of Agriculture is assisting the other Departments in their endeavors.

2.11.1 Led or poverty alleviation projects.

        Various types of projects are listed in the IDP for development by the Local Municipalities of which the
        following have agricultural importance:

        Poultry Projects                          =       77 Projects
        Newcastle                                 =       23 Projects
        Utrecht                                   =       02 Projects
        Dannhauser                                =       52 Projects

        Gardening and Community Gardens           =       44 Projects
        Newcastle                                 =       14 Projects
        Utrecht                                   =       0 Projects
                                                      97

       Dannhauser                               =           30 Projects

       Piggery Projects                         =           12 Projects
       Newcastle                                =           6 Projects
       Utrecht                                  =           0 Projects
       Dannhauser                               =           6 Projects

       Feedlots                                 =           4 Projects
       Newcastle                                =           1 Project
       Utrecht                                  =           0 Project
       Dannhauser                               =           3 Project

       Goats                                    =           1 Project
       Newcastle                                =           0 Projects
       Utrecht                                  =           1 Projects
       Dannhauser                               =           1 Projects


       Crops and Barley                         =           10 Projects
       Newcastle                                =           5 Projects
       Utrecht                                  =           0 Projects
       Dannhauser                               =           5 Projects

       Trees and Indigenous                     =           6 Projects
       Newcastle                                =           0 Projects
       Utrecht                                  =           0 Projects
       Dannhauser                               =           6 Projects

2.12 Support/extension structures
       The Department of Agriculture and Environmental Affairs is well equipped to provide support and
       extension to the agricultural sector in the Amajuba area.
       There are various other Public and private institutions willing to assist disadvantaged communities to
       enjoy the full commercial potential of their land.


2.13 Policies

       All the institutions offering assistance have their own policies and requirements, which must be adhered
       to when applying for assistance.
2.14 Land claims
       Refer to the following maps:


       Map 214         DLA Land Restitution projects
       Map 217         DLA Labour tenant claims


       The information from Department of Land Affairs has been incorporated into the above-mentioned
       maps.
       Only two Land Reform Projects are listed on the IDP.
                                                            98

2.15 Environmental issues.


         Environmental issues have received prominence in recent years and have been reinforced in South
         Africa by a suite of laws that reflect South Africa’s government’s sympathetic standing of these issues
         that is in line with international conventions.


         The most important pieces of South African environmental legislation are:


    -   The Environment Conservation Act 73 of 1989 and from agricultural viewpoint sections 21, 22 and 26
        has particular relevance.
    -   The National Environmental Management Act 107 0f 1998 (NEMA) which embraces a host of other
        environmental legislation


Of particular significance to the agricultural sector is:


    -   The change of land use from the use for grazing to any other form of agriculture use.
    -   The concentration of livestock in a confined structure for the purpose of mass commercial production.
    -   The intensive husbandry of, or importation of, any plant or animal that has been declared a weed or an
        invasive alien species.
    -   The release of any organism outside its natural area of distribution that is to be used for biological pest
        control.


         At present many farmers are still ignorant to the legislation requirements and due to poor
         implementation of the law by State organs the transgressors have not yet been brought to book.
         However, in the Province of KwaZulu-Natal the network of the Department of Agriculture and
         Environmental Affairs is gaining momentum. It is envisage that there will soon be a district office of
         the Environmental Affairs section in each district Municipality. It is therefore considered good practice
         to ascertain the environmental standing of any development projects before money is spent. A proper
         Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) might be necessary.


         In determining the environmental issues that are prominent in Newcastle use has been made of the
         Bioresource Unit concept and each BRU in Newcastle has been given a report on the potential threats
         for agriculture. These reports have not however taken outside influences into account, for example,
         mine pollution and atmospheric pollution and its effects for agriculture.
                                                   99

    Sensitive areas
    Cognizance must be taken of these areas as shown on the relevant maps.

    Indigenous forests

    Indigenous forests are under threat country-wide, and occupy only 0.3% of the total surface of South
    Africa. Regionally in KwaZulu-Natal, Montane Podocarpus Forest occupies some 9273 ha, most in
    isolated patches and located on private land (Cooper, 1985).


    Wetlands


    There are a number of wetlands or vlei areas in Newcastle.
    All of these wetlands play an important role in:
-   cleaning polluted water,
-   reducing flooding,
-   storing and gradually releasing water,
-   regulating stream flow,
-   preventing soil erosion,
-   providing habitats for a wide range of fauna and flora.


    Begg (1989), estimates that over half of the wetlands once existing in Natal and KwaZulu have been
    destroyed due to drainage, infilling, canalization or impoundment. Begg (1989) has further identified a
    number of “priority” wetlands in Natal. He defines such a wetland as “having substantial ecosystem
    functions and resource values (i.e. hydrological, ecological, cultural, recreational, economic).” These
    wetlands should have a high priority for attention as far as management and policy formation is
    concerned.


    Problematic Alien Invader Vegetation
    The table below reflects the priority ranking of the nine most important invader plants in Newcastle
    area according to different perspectives.
                                                      100

TABLE 1.15.1 - PRIORITY RANKING OF THE NINE MOST IMPORTANT INVADER PLANTS IN
THE AMAJUBA DISTRICT MUNICIPALITY AREA ACCORDING TO DIFFERENT OBJECTIVES
                   SPECIES                                                   RANKING
                                                    Extent in Agricultural               Extent in Silvicultural
                                                             Areas                                Areas
        Acacia dealbata (Silver wattle)                         2                                   5
        Acacia mearnsii (Black wattle)                          2                                   6
            Caesalpinia decapetala                              8                                   7
               (Mauritius thorn)
      Lantana camara (Lantana)                                  5                                   3
          Melia azedarach (Syringa)                             9                                   9
          Opuntia spp. (Prickly pear)                           9                                   9
         Sesbania punicea (Sesbania)                            6                                   9
             Solanum mauritianum                                9                                   1
                  (Bugweed)
          Melia azedarach (Syringa)                             9                                   9


        1 = high
        9 = low
        Occurrence of alien invader species

        Acacia mearnsii and Acacia dealbata

       The most important species that are problematic in Newcastle are Acacia mearnsii and Acacia dealbata.


       These species both thrive along watercourses and are evident along the vast majority of the streams.
       They also spread to surrounding areas of disturbed habitat like road verges, gullies, cattle tracks and
       overgrazed lands.

2.16 Funders

       Possible funders are:

       Department of Agriculture
       Department of Land Affairs, land restitution and LRAD
       National Development Agency
       Afgri
       Land Bank and other commercial banks
       Khula Enterprise finance
       Yandisa & Phatisa

2.17 Analysis of existing agricultural sector
        Problems and constraints relate to physical potential, economic factors, farming practice, services,
        infrastructure and social considerations.
                                                    101

    Low Agricultural Potential


    Large areas of the study region have comparatively low agricultural potential, as they are included
    within the relatively unproductive Bioresource group TUc1. A serious problem is the variability of the
    climate that leads to wide fluctuations in agricultural production. However, there is definitely potential
    for improving on the present situation.


    Economic Factors


    Economic problems are presently the greatest threat to farming in Newcastle. These problems include:


-   the depressed price of maize and other agricultural produce
-   spiraling production costs at a time when profits are low
-   large debt repayments
-   reduced financial assistance provided to farmers
-   a general reduction in exports as a result of worldwide surpluses of primary produce
-   the concentration of large markets in the metropolitan areas which makes marketing difficult
-   a relatively low level of financial management
-   variability in the price received for produce
Farming Practices


-   Mechanization has required large capital investments which have increased the debt burden, resulted in
    high replacement costs for machinery and reduced the number of jobs available within the agricultural
    sector
-   Ineffective land usage as a result of a lack of knowledge and inadequate expertise. Too often farming
    practices do not fit the soil types and climate of an area.
-   Poor farming methods have led to widespread soil erosion and veld deterioration particularly in areas of
    BRG’s 13 and 14.
-   In some areas there are a number of absentee landlords who neglect their farms.


Services and Infrastructure


    Basic physical and social infrastructure is relatively well developed, however the following problems
    need to be dealt with:
-   although the road network in rural “KwaZulu-Natal” is generally good there is a need for additional
    district roads to be upgraded and blacktopped
-   district roads in Newcastle are often in a moderate to poor state are impassable in wet weather
-   transport costs for agricultural produce are very high
-   telephone networks are moderate to poor in outlying areas
                                                    102

-   the Eskom power grid is generally comprehensive but power supply requires a large capital outlay and
    connection fees are high
-   water conservation is a problem as there are insufficient storage dams in some areas and underground
    water supplies are unreliable over a large part of the region (BRG’s 13 and 14)
-   natural watercourses, in some areas are polluted by:
        o   waste water from industry
        o   acid from coal dumps
        o   the high silt load


-   distribution points for agricultural produce are far apart ; and
-   health, education and security services in outlying areas are often inadequate


    Social Considerations


    From the perspective of the commercial farmer the following issues are of concern:


-   the lack of a suitably trained labour force willing to work in the agricultural sector
-   the depopulation of rural areas which leads to the disintegration of rural communities and the closure of
    public sector services
-   uncertainty with regard to the land reform process and the delays in processing claims that has had a
    negative impact on capital investment on farms
-   lack of security
-   unionization of farm labour


    The farm labourer is faced with the following problems:


-   lack of secure tenure
-   low wage levels in the agricultural sector
-   the declining number of job opportunities as agriculture mechanizes
-   inadequate housing
-   the lack of satisfactory health, education and transport service; and
-   the difficulties of organizing unions


    The discussion of agriculture has reflected to a large degree on the commercial agricultural sector,
    however there are also the large communal areas that have their own set of issues.


     Freehold areas owned by previously disadvantaged individuals that have formed consortium and
    Communal Property Association’s (CPA’s) or individual ownership of individual farms etc are often
    densely populated and extensively subdivided. Many landowners have abandoned agriculture and small
                                                    103

     scale farmers that do exist are without adequate support services. Agriculture in these areas is beset by a
     number of serious problems including: overstocking, environmental deterioration, the shortage of
     extension officers, and poor marketing, and social and physical infrastructure.


3   AGRICULTURAL NATURAL RESOURCE POTENTIAL


     Land potential for ADM


     To determine a broad regional land potential use was made of the soil capability classes as
     described by the Natural Resources and Information Systems Section (1995) and the Land
     Type units of the Institute for Soil Climate and Water (Land Type Survey Staff, 1995) and
     were combined with the climate capability classes to produce regional land potential classes
     for each BRU. Further to this land potential classes L1, L2 and L3 have been highlighted to
     illustrate the distribution of high potential land in Newcastle.


     Use has been made of the Table below that defines the land capability classes from a soil
     suitability perspective.




TABLE 3.1 - LAND CAPABILITY CLASS CLASSIFICATION
                 Land capability        Definition of       Conservation        Use-suitability
                     class                  class                 need
ARABLE                  I            No       or     few   Good agronomic      Annual cropping
                                     limitations. Very     practice
                                     high         arable
                                     potential.     Very
                                     low         erosion
                                     hazard
                         II          Slight limitations.   Adequate runoff     Annual cropping
                                     High         arable   control             with       special
                                     potential.     Low                        tillage   or   ley
                                     erosion hazard.                           (25%)
                         III         Moderate              Special             Rotation of crops
                                     limitations. Some     conservation        and ley (50%)
                                     erosion hazard.       practice      and
                                                           tillage methods
                        IV           Severe                Intensive           Long-term    leys
                                     limitations. Low      conservation        (75%)
                                     arable potential.     practice
                                     High       erosion
                                     hazard
                                                              104

NON ARABLE                        V            Water        course    Protection  and      Improved
                                               and land with          control of water     pastures.     Wild
                                               wetness                table                life
                                               limitations
                                  VI           Limitations            Protection           Veld pasture and
                                               preclude               measures       for   forestation
                                               cultivation.           establishment
                                               Suitable         for   e.g. sod-seeding
                                               perennial
                                               vegetation
                                  VII          Very         severe    Adequate             Natural       veld
                                               limitations.           management for       grazing       and
                                               Suitable only for      natural              forestation
                                               natural                vegetation
                                               vegetation
                                 VIII          Extremely severe       Total protection     Wild life
                                               limitations.    Not    from agriculture
                                               suitable         for
                                               grazing           or
                                               forestation



3.1       Irrigation


          The Maps show focus areas that have potential irrigable soil according to the Land Type and
          Bioresource Programme information. However it has once again to be stressed that irrigable soils have
          a different set of criteria than arable soils. It is therefore recommended that a qualified pedologist
          evaluate potential identified areas so that a more accurate picture can be formed of the soil and
          recommendations made.


          The ideal soil for irrigation should:
      -   be well-drained to avoid water logging and salt build-up
      -   have a high available moisture capacity so as to reduce the number of water applications
      -   be well managed to reduce runoff and erosion due to frequent over-irrigation
      -   cover a large enough area to justify the investment in irrigation


          It should also be noted that certain soils that are currently irrigated are not suited to irrigation and go
          contrary to the Conservation of Agricultural Resources Act (No. 43/1983). Therefore the areas that are
          currently irrigated and have been determined by the land cover interpretation requires a degree of
          circumspection


          There is presently a surplus of 23 Mm³ available from the Ntshingwayo dam, which could be
          utilized to irrigate approximately 2300 ha, providing suitable soil is available. This should be
          reserved for the expected domestic and industrial demand growth of between 11 and 38 Mm³/annum.
          (1.3.3)
                    if dams are not going to be constructed in supply area.
                                               105

Utilization of the surplus water to irrigate approximately 2300 ha may commence in a phased fashion
immediately, provided dam construction in other rivers are scheduled as such to meet the projected
increased domestic/industrial demand of between 11Mm³ and 38Mm³ over a period of approximately 20
years. These dams should preferably be upstream of the domestic/industrial demand area, such as the
planned Ncandu dam, potential Horn river dam, and potential upper-Buffalo river dam. In order to meet
the future medium growth domestic and industrial demand if this reserve of 23 Mm³ is used for
irrigation, both the Ncandu and Horn dam will have to be constructed, or the upper-Buffalo river dam.
With the upper Buffalo River dam, conveyance losses is expected to be more and the pumping cost
higher, if water is pumped from the Buffalo River near Newcastle. Refer to the demand projection
graph under section 1.3.7, indicating what the effect would be for a 150 ha per year irrigation
development on the time when augmentation would be required to the Ntshinwayo dam.


Without a programme to construct dams in the rivers, there is practically no additional irrigation
potential in the Amajuba district.


With the most economical potential dams selected, namely the Ncandu dam, Upper Buffalo river
dam (V31B1) and Horn river dam (V31F1), approximately 5700 ha irrigation is possible in the
Amajuba district. With all the dams constructed approximately 10300ha could be irrigated. In
the latter event cross subsidization of the water cost would be required, since irrigation from the
expansive dams, if billed separately, would most likely be uneconomical. It may be proven that it is
economical to construct the expensive dams, in which case only 5700 ha would be irrigable.
Unfortunately it is not possible to establish at this stage, whether 5700-10300 ha additional irrigable soil
is available, due to the lack of information on soil regarding irrigability. It is not recommended to
irrigate on soil that is not deemed suitable for irrigation purposes, without measures in place to rectify
the potential problems. In order for any project to be permitted, the Department of Agriculture and
Environmental Affairs needs to approve an environmental assessment report on the project. Should the
slope of the land for example exceed 12 %, the Department will not allow cultivation in terms of the
soil conservation act. The Department will also not allow soils to be irrigated that do not have good
drainage properties. Only if a properly designed subsurface drainage system is in place in soil that is
deep enough for such a system, will the Department consider allowing irrigation.


It is deemed uneconomical for a first investigation, to irrigate further away than approximately 5 km
from the rivers in which dams could be constructed, and at higher elevations than approximately 60 m.
Refer to the maps for an indication of suitable irrigable soil along the rivers, within a 5 km band width.
It is clear from this map that the possibility to find additional good soil for irrigation only exists at the
upper reaches of the rivers, upstream of the potential dam site. As an interim measure it is assumed that
soil suitable for cultivation will be suitable for irrigation, with subsurface drainage in place. The
economical analysis allow for subsurface drainage. It is also possible to invest in tunnel farming where
the soil is totally unsuitable.
                                                       106

3.2   Cultivation

      It is not envisaged that the area under cultivation be increased as already too much marginal land has
      been used for cultivation and has led to crop failures and accelerated soil loss. Rather it is prudent to
      identify the soils that are best suited to cultivation and utilize them correctly. Unsuitable soil should
      revert back to grass cover. It should also be remembered that Newcastle area is primarily a
      livestock producing area.


      Cropping ecotopes for the identified BRU’s are given with the yield potential under 70% management
      for a selection of crops that are currently cultivated in Newcastle area. It is of importance to note that
      the cropping ecotopes will have to be determined in the field by an experienced pedologist.

3.3   Pasturing

      Currently the input costs versus the income generated by conventional agricultural produce are not
      economically viable. It is suggested that value addition needs to be done to raw products so that the
      pasturages can be afforded and a profit shown.


      Cognizance also needs to be taken of the need for water of an acceptable quality and quantity. The high
      yielding pastures (i.e. ryegrass/clover, fescue/clover) will be an abundance of this resource. The total
      water requirement (including effective rainfall) is 6000m3/ha and 7000m3/ha for ryegrass and kikuyu
      respectively therefore careful water quantity management is required.


      If good irrigated pasture management can be achieved dairying, fat lamb or fattening steers are all
      possibilities but the core of everything is the cost/benefit ratio.


      Dry land pastures should be planted on the more marginal crop ecotopes. Usually the dry land pastures
      are used for fodder for the winter months and yields vary widely pending rainfall distribution and
      quantity.

3.4   Grazing/livestock

      The ADM area is mainly a livestock area. The current stocking rate overall in the commercial areas is
      3.5 ha/AU while in the communal areas it is 1.8 ha/AU. The average calving percentage in the
      commercial area is 65 -70 %, while in the communal areas is as low as 15%. It is felt that by assisting
      the communal farmers in stocking rate, veld and herd management the calving percentage could be
      increased to at least 50%. This would amount to a substantial increase of saleable produce.
                                                       107

3.4.1   Population


        Population figures have been collected from the 1985 census conducted by Central Statistics Services
        (1G2)
            . These have been escalated by 15.1% for undercount as recommended in that publication. A
        realistic rate of 2,5 % per annum (1G8) has been used in this study.


        Tribal ward boundaries are indicated for each catchment. The latest data from KDA has been used
        together with the original work done by Von Warmelow in 1935 and Updated by Jackson (1G7).


        Population estimates are included for each tribal ward


3.4.2   Stock


        Data used:     KDA: Veterinary Reports


3.4.3   General


        The Zulu farmer is traditionally a cattle farmer. Non-woolled sheep and goats are less important while
        wool sheep are rarely seen in KwaZulu.


        Indigenous cattle are primarily Nguni breed, with various admixtures also found. The Nguni is a
        relatively small, hardy animal having a pigmented hide, good milk production, and fertile and giving
        easy birth. They also display good mothering abilities and are docile. KDA runs a pedigree herd at
        Bartlow Combine from which stud animals are made available to commercial breeders.


        Although having a relatively small carcass, Nguni are increasingly popular with European farmers, and
        a premium is paid for pure Nguni Stock.


        Goat and sheep are of mixed stock and there is room for considerable improvement in productivity and
        adaptability by the introduction of more productive stock


        Total stock loading is calculated for each catchment using the following values:
        1AU = 450 kg steer at 30 months of age.
        Reduction to AU values is as follows:

        (Live Mass ) 3/4
         ( 450 )

        e.g. Sheep ( 60kg) = 0.22Au, Goat (40kg) = 0.16AU , Ox (600kg) = 1.24AU

        When dealing with census summaries, we have simplified conversion factors to the following:
                                                108


AU = Cattle /1.31 + (Sheep + Pigs+ Goat)/5+ (horses + Mules + Donkey) /1,5
Values of stock in KwaZulu


Enunciating clearly the diverse perceptions of stock in the mind of the Zulu farmer seems to be elusive,
with conflicting perceptions recorded in Tapson and Rose (1984) (1A35)


Further attention which has been given to economic values of stock includes the perceptive study by
Buchan (1988) (2C48) who quotes the following utility values in addition to the more conventional ”store-
of – wealth” and “beef -production.”



Utility                    % of Total Utility Value      % of Asset Value (Annual)
Milk production*           62,2                          60,8
Social Exchanges           15,3                          14,9
Drought Power              12,5                          12,3
Meat                       4,2                           4,1
Sales                      3,6                           3,5
Investment                 2,2                           2,1
TOTALS                     100,0                         91,7


* Milk valued at R 1-40/liter. (1990) This is high.

Milk production has been estimated at 1329 liters per lactation. This is also high Buchan’s (1988)
comment “ Investment in cattle on the Makhathini makes good economic sense and the local desire to
increase personal herd size is understandable” deserves further elucidation, since it may – we believe –
be construed to mean that there is justification for increasing herd size.


In point of fact, it must be emphasized that the rationale behind keeping stock in KwaZulu is to
maximize benefits, of which milk production is apparently the most important. (> 60% of total). If the
Makhathini farmer’s perception is that stock numbers and milk productions are directly related, the
fallacy of this view needs to be pointed out.
In simple terms, it is not “stock” that produce milk but grass ingested by lactating cows of good
breeding. Anything threatening productivity of pastures will have a deleterious effect on pasture milk
production, including increase in stock numbers.


Non milk producing animals (dry cows, calves, oxen, bulls) divide the pasture resource and reduce that
portion accessible to lactating cows, so reducing potential milk production.


The common notion of “stock farming” is a disastrous misnomer, which emphasizes the beneficiation
unit (stock) but underplays the essential resource (grazing).
                                                           109

        The term pastoralist is more descriptive of the essence of so-called “stock farming” and should be given
        recognition and extension support.


        We consider that actual milk production of 1329 liters / annum/cow quoted by Buchan (1988) to be
        high, amounting to a 300- day lactation of more than 4.4 liters/ day, or -more likely-a 200- day lactation
        of 6.6 liters /day


        Further study into the system dynamic is essential to establish the optimalisation of resource
        exploitation with long term sustainability also given due regard.


        It may be mentioned here that, although the annual utility value of stock approaches the capital invested
        in stock (Buchan 1988) and while such a comparison may with some validity be used to illustrate the
        sense of preferential investment in pastoral farming as opposed to irrigation farming, this by no means
        implies that the pastural status quo is optimal.


A simple comparison illustrates this:



Pastoral System      Stocking Rate Milk Production Beef Production Value Units/ha Value units/MSU
                     ha/MSU        (Litre/ha/annum) Carcass    Mass 1kg meat =
                                                    (kg/ha/annum)   8 litres milk
Free-roaming
Overstocked        2,8             200*           3                          27                75
EVN estimate       2,8             100            3                          15,5              43
(Overstocked
state)
Fenced Natural 8,0                 100            10                         22,5              180
Veld
(Beef Finishing) 4                                >200                       200               **50
Dry          land 1                >2000                                     250               250
Pastures
Irr.     Pastures 0,125                           >500                       500               **125
(Beef)
Irr.     Pastures 0,333            >10000                                    1250              420
(Milk)
        *       Based on 1300 liters/ cow/annum. We estimate that this       figure is excessively high. Actual
                  Milk recording is recommended to establish a more accurate figure
        **        Appears low because of necessity of utilizing three batches per annum.




        Degradation of the natural veld resource occurs at high stocking rates, which – we suspect - are in any
        event not optimal for stockowners
                                                          110

            Average stock loadings are almost without exception in excess of veld carrying capacity, and veld
            degradation is widespread, particularly showing clear signs of:


    (i)         Bush encroachment in the lowveld and valley bushveld regions.
    (ii)        Increase in unpalatable woody species in tall grassveld, with degradation of species composition in
                sweetveld and sourveld.
    (iii)       Increasing reversion of sourveld to unpalatable Ngongoni veld.


We may infer certain general observations about the state of stock farming in general:


    a) Calf mortality and /or low calving percentages are cause for grave concern.


    b) The low relative proportions of female animals is inhibitive in maximizing productivity


3.4.4       Herd Composition


            We consider it important to emphasize here in simple form the interrelationship between the various
            elements comprising the herd and the influence, which imbalances in herd composition have on
            productivity levels.


            In simplified form, assuming:

            No. of fertile cows in herd                                             =       C
            Ratio of fertile mature cows to bulls                                   =       B
                                                                                            1
            Ratio of fertile mature cows to (oxen & infertile cows)                 =       Q
            Calving rate/fertile cow/annum                                          =       P
            Survival rate                                                           =       S
            Proportion of replacement heifers annually to breeding herd             =       R
            Proportion of replacement bullocks annually to oxen                     =       T


            Assuming “marketing” at 2-2,5 years of age, we then have:
            Total Stock Number               =       C (1 + B + Q + 2PS)
            Equivalent Animal units =        1+ 1,4B + 1,25Q + 0,25PS + 0,75PS
            Certain useful indicators may be deduced here to indicate the productive capacity of a given grazing
            domain.

            Cows                     =                      C
            Animal Unit                              1+1,43 + 1,25Q + PS

            Draw off                 =                       PS
                                                    111

 Animal unit                                   1+ 1,43 + 1,25Q + PS

 The influence of some of these factors is indicated below:

 DRAWOFF / ANIMAL UNIT (PERCENT)

 For Calving percentage = 70% and Survival rate = 80%


Cows / (Ox + Infertile Cow)
Cows/Bull         1       2          5         10         20
5                 22      27         32        34         35
10                23      29         34        36         37
15                23      29         35        37         38
20                24      30         36        38         39

 The very rapid improvement in draw off noted with the reduction in (Ox + infertile cow) numbers is
 worthy of particular mention, with a potential increase in draw off of 30% possible if this ratio were to
 be reduced from the prevailing 2:1 to a more favorable 20:1 (5% infertility).


 The influence of improved fertility (associated with adequate grazing, possible phosphate lick
 supplementations and shade in the oestrus period in summer) and reduced mortality (associated
 primarily with poor cow condition at calving and equally poor veld condition prospects during the
 critical early growth phase, and secondarily with internal parasites, viruses and diverse stock diseases)
 may be shown in the following figures:


 DRAWOFF / ANIMAL UNIT (PERCENT)

 Calving Rate of 85% and Survival Rate of 90%.


  Cows / (Ox + Infertile Cow)
  Cows/Bull      1            2           5                    10         20
  5              23           29          33                   35         36
  20             25                                                       40
  Calving Rate of 65% and Survival Rate of 70%
  Cows / (Ox + Infertile Cow)
  Cows/Bull      1            2           5                    10         20
  5              15           19          23                   29         25
  20             16           21          26                   27         29
  Comment:
  The relative effect of reduced mortality and increased fertility is smaller than the effect of improved
  herd composition. The effect of improved herd composition parallels the improvement effected by
  increases in fertility and survival rates.


  Equally, the meat yield per animal unit may be quantified in the following equation:


  Assuming         Live Mass heifers of slaughter age                 =        300kg
                                                         112

                        Live Mass bullocks of slaughter age                =      350kg
                        Live Mass cows                                     =      450kg
                        Live Mass cows                                     =      600kg


        Then    Meat Yield       =         PS (179+ 690 T + 41.2R)
                Animal Unit               1 + 1.4B +1.25Q + PS

        And consequently: With R = T = 0,25
        CARCASS MASS YEILD/ ANNUAL UNIT


        For calving percentage of P= 70% and survival rate of S= 80%

           Cow / (Ox + Infertile Cow) Ratio
           Cow/Bull Ratio        1             2               5          10         20
           5                     37            45              52         54         56
           10                    39            48              55         59         60
           15                    40            49              57         61         63



        CARCASS MASS YIELD/ ANIMAL UNIT


        For calving percentage of P= 85% and Survival Rate S= 85%

       Cow / (Ox + Infertile Cow) Ratio
       Cow/Bull Ratio        1          2                5           10         20
       5                     45         56               66          70         72
       15                    48         61               72          76         79


Summary


  1.        Reducing the cow / (ox + infertile cow) ratio from existing levels (1:10-1:20) can result in improved
            meat yields of 25% to 50% on the available land area, without implementing a stock reduction
            policy.


  2.        Improving grazing conditions at oestrus and calving and giving attention to calf support
            programmes (vaccination, anthelmintics etc) can result in an improvement of a further 15-20% in
            meat yield /animal unit.


  3.        We need to emphasize here that these figures are order estimates of the extent of production loss
            attributable to the twofold problems of herd composition and fertility/ survival, and are not intended
            to be construed as having final authority.


            Ancillary benefits such as:
                                                           113

             Higher weaning masses
             Heavier carcasses at an earlier growth stage, with consequent higher grading and better prices, have
             not yet been included in the above estimates.


    4.       The traditional tribal structure is held in high esteem, and the purpose of the amplification of the
             problems presented above is twofold:
             (a)     To illustrate the negative effect of unproductive stock retention on the regional economy.


             (b)     To stimulate discussion into alternative supportive structures which may retain the positive
                     aspects of lobola transactions and other traditional stock uses while also evaluating the merits
                     of alternative forms of draught power, “store-of-wealth” perceptions etc.


                     For instance:
                     At present, a typical lobola system requires:
                     11 Cattle for a bride
                     14 Cattle for the daughter of an induna
                     16 Cattle for the daughter of a tribal chief


                     The nett effect of this system is that the transaction portion of a herd becomes available to
                     the bride’s father for a period until one of his sons in turn requires lobola to be paid for his
                     wife.


                     The system is particularly advantageous to the community if female animal were to be
                     increased in the herd at the expense of oxen, since the bride’s father would be better off in
                     retaining a high number of progeny.


    5.       The draught requirement of the rural areas amounts, in mechanization terms, to approximately:
             R80/ha taking account of the inefficiency of transport to the fields and the small size of plots. The
             retention of the present number of oxen for draught purposes leads to a potential income loss
             considerably in excess of R80/ha.


3.4.5    Stock Numbers

         Stock numbers (1G3 1987-1988) for the various KwaZulu districts are given below


          District      Cattle       Sheep         Goats            Other*   Pigs          Total
                                                                                           MSU
          Madadeni 30200             10100         4900             700      200           26700

        other: horses Mules and Donkey
                                                        114

         Note:     Proportional area reduction factors are used where districts cross catchments boundaries.

3.4.6     Stock Loading


         Actual stock loading is calculated to be as follows:

        District                     Actual Stock Loading
                                     (ha/MSU)
        Madadeni                     2.1

         Note: The economic carrying capacity of 5 – 10ha most districts has been exceeded. Environmental
         degradation and reversion of veld species is likely to occur.

3.5       Forestation

         The Forest Act (No. 122 of 1984) and its regulations control forestation, fire protection and other
         matters of silvicultural concern to farmers. A minimum of 30 m must normally be left open on either
         side of the edges of streams and wetlands. This may be increased to 50 m or more, based on
         circumstances such as the importance of the site as a water source for downstream users. As a general
         rule of thumb, only about 75% of a property will be allowed to be planted to trees, but under special
         circumstances this can be exceeded. The Department of Water Affairs and Forestry has determined a
         maximum area which may be planted to trees on a sub-catchments basis.
3.6       Intensive farming (feedlots, tunnels, dairies, piggeries, poultry)

         Poultry
         Poultry is a growth industry with a relatively good future although northern KwaZulu-Natal lags far
         behind the Midlands area. The greatest concentration within the study region lies in the Dannhauser
         local Municipality area. A large potential market exists but prices have been rising slower than costs of
         production. Value addition is seen as an avenue for increasing profits.


         Piggeries


         Pig farming provides a relatively stable income but is a relatively small industry when compared with
         pig farming in the Midlands. The usual problem with pig farming is the cost of housing and feed. Many
         successful pig farmers in the Dannhauser local Municipality area plant their own feed and mix their
         own rations on the farm. Feed prices are closely related to the maize price and with the present lower
         maize price it favors the industry but as soon as the prices remain high the small holder who does not
         have lands to plant to maize suffers.


         Dairying


         Dairying has always been an enterprise that provides a good cash flow, however feed costs especially if
         buying in feed can be high. Alternatives utilizing grass production systems are the avenue to venture,
                                                115

however the input costs of pasture establishment need to be closely monitored against milk yield. Once
again the producer price is usually what lags behind. If a strong well organized dairy project can be
established in Newcastle so that a good producer price can be gained for producers a success could be
made of this. One has to bear in mind that abundant water of suitable quality and soil need to be
evaluated. Existing lands could be used for this purpose.


Interested overseas companies have discussed a dairying project in the area; 1 million liters of milk per
day would have to be delivered. This is equivalent to having 100 000 cows in milk at an average of 10
liters/cow/day. If an average stocking rate of 2 cows/ha could be achieved on planted pastures over the
area this would equate to 50 000 ha that will have to be planted of which 25% should be irrigated.
Possible linkages with other district Municipalities need to be established to meet the required demand
if this proposed project is to be implemented. More realistic units are proposed for this study, in the
order of 5 x 100 cow units.


The figures are very conservative but it must be remembered that the whole social profile of farmers in
the district needs to be taken into consideration.


Excluding the amount of hectares that need to be effectively brought into production the infrastructural
demands in outlying areas will be enormous. A very good and effective dairying extension service will
be required to assist farmers.


Feedlots


Feedlot economy is closely related to the maize price and the feed conversion efficiency of the animal
that is to be put through the feedlot. High maize prices affect feedlot enterprises negatively and as with
the pig farming industry, the more feed a farmer can produce on farm the better the financial rewards
can be. However feedlot planning and infrastructural planning are important issues that require a high
capital input. Further to this, proposed feedlots need to be scrutinized via an Environmental Impact
Assessment (EIA) before any authorization will be granted to establish such.


Tunnels


Tunnels are intensive high management requirement enterprises; initial capital demands are also high.
Tunnel performance is closely related to a good marketing approach. Typically salad tomatoes,
cucumbers (English and Israeli), strawberries and cut flowers all are favored products from tunnels.
Quality and package presentation are also key areas for success along with a population that requires
such produce. Usually this market is found in the large affluent urban areas of Johannesburg/Pretoria
and Durban/Pietermaritzburg. However the local larger towns of Newcastle and Ladysmith could be
supplied once the market potential has been determined. If exportation is envisaged volume of a high
                                                       116

        quality is usually required and certain health regulations regarding the product are strictly enforced by
        the accepting authority.


        Good roads leading to and from the primary producer is essential and it is also critical to determine the
        transport costs for the delivery of produce to markets to establish the most distant market point.


3.7   Game farming

        Lower meat import tariffs and higher chicken consumption have made beef farming relatively less
        profitable. There is a perception amongst farmers that game farming yields better returns than cattle
        farming do. As a result, an increasing number of cattle farmers are switching to game ranching and
        related game-based tourism. The Centre for Wildlife Economics at the University of Potchefstroom put
        the rate of expansion in the industry at 25 percent a year for the past decade.


        Farmers must consider a wider range of risk and information strategies to promote business growth and
        competitiveness. At business level, product differentiation to raise margins is important if hunting
        services are not offered. In addition, farmers need to make the benefits of tourism more accessible to
        local communities. Strategies here include job creation, potential equity-share schemes, and the
        marketing of products and services such as curios and cultural events.


        The Internet can help farmers to profitably switch from a commodity focus (like beef) to a more
        service-oriented business (like game-based tourism). They need to weigh up the potential costs and
        benefits of adopting this new technology that makes it easier to communicate, and deal directly, with
        potential clients.


        The potential of expanding the province’s game farms into venison exporters that could earn farmers an
        additional R5 million a year and nett R17,5million in foreign earnings is being envisaged. Worldwide
        game meat is popular as it has low fat content. Demand has grown to such an extent that most up-
        market supermarkets in the European Union stock venison.

3.8   High value products

        Introduction


        Smallholder farmers can increase their agricultural incomes in the long run through greater sales of
        high-value commodities such as livestock, dairy products, fish, fruits, vegetables, spices, and
        ornamentals. These products are typically perishable, of high quality-specific value, and increasingly
        sold through specialized markets. This part of world agriculture is growing rapidly, and is becoming
        increasingly capital-intensive and vertically integrated.


        Essential oils as a possible high value product
                                                      117


        South Africa has the climatic and geographic diversity, large areas of unpolluted agricultural lands and
        a sound technological and scientific platform to develop a significant essential oil industry that is
        internationally competitive. However, a lack of technical and market knowledge has restricted
        development.


        The chemical and sensory characteristics of various essential oils from a diverse range of South
        African climatic and geographical areas have been evaluated. The quality has been found to be
        competitive with oils from other leading nations supplying world markets.

        Essential oils are sold into the flavor, fragrance, personal hygiene and aromatherapy markets.
        Access to these markets is not easy and should be developed over several years. Essential oil
        production provides South African farmers with the opportunity to diversify their crops with
        the added advantage of conducting further value addition on the farm through processing.

        The size of the essential oils' market averages US$ 8 billion a year and increases at the annual rate of
        10.9%. Africa's share is less than 1% of that market. So there is doubtless room for Africa to have a
        bigger share of the cake.


        Once an essential oil industry is set up in South Africa, it will open the way to develop other business
        opportunities: foods, cosmetics, detergent, and pesticides. It will doubtless contribute to and speed up
        the economic development of the country.


        Newcastle area can get involved in the production of these high value crops because climatically it is
        well suited for a wide range of these plants. Strategically one will have to select a wide range of
        products that can be processed by the same plant to optimize the use of such a plant.


        In addition to the Soya bio-diesel plant, isoflavones could also be extracted from the soybeans. If one
        looks at isoflavones, the isoflavones extracted from red clover could be added to broaden the spectrum
        of these anti oxidants.


        Vetiver grass, that can be used extensively to prevent erosion, can also be used to extract vetiver oil
        from.

3.9   Value adding projects

        The concept
        Value adding is one of today’s most common “buzzwords” in agriculture. Value may be added to
        agricultural commodities by processing, packaging and marketing. At the farm level, value can be
        added by retaining ownership of an item beyond the commodity stage, thereby increasing the value of
                                                       118

        the item by further processing, packaging or marketing. Value-added agriculture may convert items into
        products of greater value, increase the economic value of a commodity or increase the consumer appeal
        of agricultural products. Adding value is doing more of the preparation of a product/commodity for the
        consumer than was done before.


        Why the drive for value adding?


        Farmers are receiving a lower nett return for their products than in the past. One reason for this low nett
        return is that the prices paid by farmers for inputs have been steadily increasing, while the prices
        received for products have been stagnant. Historically, stagnant farm prices in economies of growing
        retail prices have contributed to a steady decline in the farmer’s share of each rand the consumer spends
        on food over the past 30 years. On average, less than 21 cents of today’s retail rand spent on food makes
        it back to the farm. For food items purchased at food service establishments (fast food and restaurants)
        the farmer’s portion slips much lower, to less than 12 cents. The table below lists an example of
        commodities and examples of value-added products.
LISTING OF COMMODITIES AND EXAMPLES OF VALUE-ADDED PRODUCTS
COMMODITY                                                 EXAMPLES OF VALUE-ADDED PRODUCTS
Hot chillis                                               Sauces, salsa
Strawberries                                              Preserves
Milk                                                      Ice cream, cheese, pasteurized milk
Game                                                      Meat products
Pigs                                                      Retail pork products
Livestock waste                                           Composted soil amendments
Natural & unique farm resources                           Entertainment farming activities and agritourism
Sweet potatoes                                            Sweet potato pies, muffins, chips, breads
Honey                                                     Gourmet honey products
Sawmill timber                                            Cabinet panels, doors, flooring, furniture
Tomatoes                                                  Salsa


        The balance


        There is, however, a delicate “balance” between what it costs to add value to an agricultural commodity
        and what price the market will bear for the product. A venture will only be profitable if the price
        received is greater than the total cost of production, packaging, transportation, operation and marketing.
        The concept of value-added agriculture is an attempt to capture or obtain a portion of the marketing
        rand. As the farm share of the retail rand spent on food shrinks, farmers may look for ways to obtain a
        portion of that which is growing.


        A different approach is required
                                                      119


        Adding value to agricultural commodities often requires significantly different business skills and
        information needs than an entrepreneur may posses. Adding value through packaging, processing and
        marketing may require adherence to and understanding of many different regulations, licensing, tax,
        insurance, labour and public relation considerations, as well as a thorough understanding of marketing
        concepts. Because the development of many value-added enterprises often constitutes a new business
        venture, such enterprises should not be undertaken lightly.
        A good business plan can help identify potential characteristics that may cause business failure and
        improve the chances for business success.


4     COSTS AND VIABILITY


4.1     Irrigation projects

        It is assumed at this stage that subsurface drainage would be required, as the macro soil surveys
        presently available, indicate a low probability for good irrigable soils.


        A typical reasonably sized irrigation system with a pump station at the river, main pipeline to a
        reservoir, distribution pipe and inland subsurface laterals, with dragline impact sprinklers,
        would cost as indicated in the table here below. For this exercise is assumed that very little
        infrastructure exist, namely that roads, soil conservation, fencing, etc, would be required.


        Table 4.1.1 - IRRIGATION SCHEME COST
        WITH SUBSURFACE DRAINAGE
                                    capital
                                    cost
        Description                 R/ha
        Prelim. and General         11000
        Excavate & backfill         36600
        HDPE Pipe and fittings      2700
        PVC Pipe and fittings       31200
        Sprinklers                  1600
        Valves and other            1500
        Steel pipe and fittings     2400
        Pump set                    6100
        Pump house, concrete &
        building                  10500
        Security fencing for Pump
        house                     100
        Fencing                   8100
        Soil Conservation         5000
        Roads                     8000
        Total cost                124800
                                          120

The total cost to develop 5700ha would be approximately R 711M for the dragline irrigation
systems including subsurface drainage and a further R 233M for the selected dams (walls
only). Total R 944M. It is shown in this section that a capital subsidy of at least 90 %
would be required for irrigation infrastructure and at least 30% for the proposed dams to
make irrigation economically feasible for the farmer. It would be required to obtain loans
for the remaining capital cost. Groups of people can get access to funds easier if they belong to
a legal entity such as a cooperative.




Table 4.1.2 - IRRIGATION SCHEME COST
WITHOUT SUBSURFACE DRAINAGE
ITEM                      Project
                          capital
                          cost
Description               R/ha
Prelim. and General       6700
Excavate & backfill       10100
HDPE Pipe and fittings    2700
PVC Pipe and fittings     16200
Sprinklers                1600
Valves and other          1500
Steel pipe and fittings   2400
Pump set                  6100
Pump house, concrete &
building                  500
Security fencing for Pump
house                     100
Fencing                   8100
Soil Conservation         5000
Roads                     8000
Total cost                69000


Note that this table and total costs here below are only given to illustrate the possible cost
saving if soils are in fact found suitable for irrigation without the necessity for subsurface
drainage. For cost estimate purposes the figures for irrigation with subsurface drainage is
recommended.


In order to provide an overall economical analysis for the Amajuba district, an average water
cost has been assumed.
                                          121




Table 4.1.3 - WATER COST AT POTENTIAL DAMS
(ALL DAMS)
Name of Estimated Additional Water Water cost Water cost Discounted
new       cost.     irrigation cost at at 30% discounted water cost
potential Wall only potential 30% subsidy (c/m³)         (R/annum)
dam       (RM)      (Mm³) * subsidy (R/annum)
                               (c/m³)

V31 B1 127        30        47     14100000   25        7500000
V31C1 505         35        127    44450000   83        29050000
Ncandu 48         13        30     3900000    20        2600000
V31 F1 58         14        37     5180000    24        3360000
V31 G1 79         7         100    7000000    65        4550000
V32 E1 73         20        32     6400000    21        4200000
TOTAL 890         119              81030000             51260000
Average water cost (c/m³)          68                   43




Table 4.1.4 - WATER COST AT POTENTIAL DAMS
(EXPENSIVE DAMS REMOVED)
Name of Estimated Additional Water Water cost Water cost Discounted
new       cost.     irrigation cost at at 30% discounted water cost
potential Wall only potential 30% subsidy (c/m³)         (R/annum)
dam       (RM)      (Mm³) * subsidy (R/annum)
                               (c/m³)

V31 B1 127        30        47     14100000 25          7500000
V31C1
Ncandu 48         13        30     3900000 20           2600000
V31 F1 58         14        37     5180000 24           3360000
V31 G1
V32 E1                             0                    0
0       233       57               23180000             13460000
Average water cost (c/m³)          41                   24
                                                     122

The following mix of crops was used to derive to an overall economic analysis.
 Table 4.1.5 - WEIGHTED AVERAGE FIGURES FOR CROPS IN THE MADADENI
 DISTRICT
     CROP              MAIZE SOYA POTATO BRASSICAS WHEAT MAIZE LETTUCE POTATO % OF
                       EARLY      LATE                   LATE          EARLY TOTAL
                                                                              AREA
     Cost              7000   3800   32000    41000        6000    7000   6500       32000
     R/bag(R/ton)      800    1800   2000     13.5         1500    800    3          2000
     Yield             8      4      30       5000         6       8      2500       30
     bags/ha(ton/ha)
     Water use (m³)    7500   6150   6400     3600         4700    6240   3900       6800
     % of area         30     40     5        10           60      25     10         10
     OCT               XXX                    XXX                         XXX        XXX      60
     NOV               XXX                    XXX                                    XXX      50
     DEC               XXX XXX                                     XXX                        95
     JAN               XXX XXX       XXX                           XXX                        100
     FEB               XXX XXX       XXX                           XXX                        100
     MRT                      XXX    XXX      XXX                  XXX                        80
     APR                      XXX    XXX      XXX                  XXX                        80
     MAY                             XXX      XXX          XXX                                75
     JUN                                      XXX          XXX                                70
     JUL                                                   XXX                       XXX      70
     AUG                                      XXX          XXX            XXX        XXX      90
     SEP                                      XXX                         XXX        XXX      30

     Average    cost
     R/ha            18850
     Average income
     R/ha            29208


       From the long-term price graphs, it is evident that the price of grains has the “normal” ups and
       downs. All are presently in an upswing phase, with the price for maize for July 2006 already
       over R700/ton. It is expected that it will continue its upward trend since considerable less
       maize is expected to be planted during the next season. The regression curves indicate a
       constant upward movement. This has not been corrected for inflation. The only reliable
       information regarding price is historical data and it is difficult to predict what the price will be
       in the future, with the free market system that we are working in. Long-term predictions by
       experts are available at a price. It is recommended that this route be followed for large-scale
       development. For the purpose of this study, average long-term prices have been assumed as the
       average prices obtained in the past.
                                           123
TABLE 4.1.6 SIMPLYFIED FINANCIAL ANALYSIS FOR A TYPICAL DRAGLINE SPRINKLER
IRRIGATION SCHEME WITH SUBSURFACE DRAINAGE, USING A SELECTED DISCOUNT RATE
OVER THE LIFE SPAN OF EQUIPMENT, ASSUMING DOUBLE CROPPING AS PER TABLE 3.1.5
Water cost (discounted)
(c/m³)                              24
Water (m³/annum)                 10000

Total gross income
(R/ha/yr)                        29208

Total direct cost (R/ha/yr)      18850
O&M of infrastructure
(R/ha/yr)                          762
Discounted capital cost
(R/ha/yr)                         7465
Water cost (R/ha/yr)              2400
Total discounted cost
R/ha/yr                          29477

Benefit:cost ratio                  1.0

ITEM                          Project Life     Maint.  Maint. Interest Period Discounted
                              capital                           rate               cost
                               cost
Description                    R/ha     (year)  (%)   (R/ha/yr)    (%)    (yr)   (R/ha/yr)
Prelim. and General              11000      40   0.0%         0     4.00%     40        556
Excavate & backfill              36600      40   0.0%         0     4.00%     40       1849
HDPE Pipe and fittings             2700     40   0.5%        14     4.00%     40        136
PVC Pipe and fittings            31200      40   0.5%      156      4.00%     40       1576
Sprinklers                         1600      5   5.0%        80     4.00%      5        359
Valves and other                   1500     15   1.0%        15     4.00%     15        135
Steel pipe and fittings            2400     20   1.0%        24     4.00%     20        177
Pump set                           6100     10   2.5%      153      4.00%     10        752
Pump house, concrete &
building                         10500     40    1.0%      105    4.00%     40         530
Security fencing for pump
house                              100     15    5.0%        5    4.00%     15           9
Fencing                           8100     15    1.0%       81    4.00%     15         729
Soil Conservation                 5000     40    1.0%       50    4.00%     40         253
Roads                             8000     40    1.0%       80    4.00%     40         404
Total cost                      124800                     762                        7465




For a discounted water cost of 24 c/m³ and for double cropping, assuming a mix of crops as per
the above table, a benefit cost ratio of 1 is achieved which indicate break even input values.
Due to the unavailability of sufficient data on the potentially irrigable soil, and with the
available macro surveys indicating low probability of good irrigable soils in the areas that
would be economically irrigable, the cost for subsurface drainage has been included in the
above cost. Without that, the benefit cost ratio would be much better.
                                             124
TABLE 4.1.7 SIMPLYFIED FINANCIAL ANALYSIS FOR A TYPICAL DRAGLINE SPRINKLER
IRRIGATION SCHEME WITH SUBSURFACE DRAINAGE, USING A SELECTED INTEREST RATE
OVER A SELECTED LOAN PERIOD, ASSUMING DOUBLE CROPPING AS PER TABLE 3.1.5

Capital subsidy %                    90

Water cost at 30%
subsidy (c/m³)                      41
Water (m³/annum)                 10000

Total gross income
(R/ha/yr)                        29208

Total direct cost
(R/ha/yr)                        18850
O&M of infrastructure
(R/ha/yr)                          762
Capital redemption
(R/ha/yr)                         2047
Water cost (R/ha/yr)              4100
Total cost R/ha/yr               25759
Nett income for the
farmer (R/ha/yr)                  3449

ITEM                        Subsidized Life        Maint.        Maint.   Interest Period    Discounted
                            capital cost                                  rate                  cost
                             for farmer
Description                     R/ha     (year)     (%)         (R/ha/yr)    (%)    (yr)      (R/ha/yr)
Prelim. and General                 1100     40             0            0 10.00%       10           179
Excavate & backfill                 3660     40             0            0 10.00%       10           596
HDPE Pipe and fittings               270     40             0          14 10.00%        10              44
PVC Pipe and fittings               3120     40             0         156 10.00%        10           508
Sprinklers                           160      5             0          80 10.00%         5              42
Valves and other                     150     15             0          15 10.00%        10              24
Steel pipe and fittings              240     20             0          24 10.00%        10              39
Pump set                             610     10             0         153 10.00%        10              99
Pump house, concrete &
building                          1050      40              0        105 10.00%        10             171
Security fencing for pump
house                               10      15              0          5 10.00%        10              2
Fencing                            810      15              0         81 10.00%        10            132
Soil Conservation                  500      40              0         50 10.00%        10             81
Roads                              800      40              0         80 10.00%        10            130
Total cost                       12480                               762                            2047




From the table above, it is clear that the capital cost of an irrigation system (with subsurface
drainage) needs to be subsidized on average by at least 90% and the water cost by at least 30%
to result in a reasonable income per ha, in the short terms (from a cashflow point of view)
                                          125
TABLE 4.1.8 SIMPLYFIED FINANCIAL ANALYSIS FOR A TYPICAL DRAGLINE SPRINKLER
IRRIGATION SCHEME WITH SUBSURFACE DRAINAGE, USING A SELECTED DISCOUNT RATE
OVER THE LIFE SPAN OF EQUIPMENT, ASSUMING DOUBLE CROPPING
Water cost (discounted) (c/m³)             24

Crop 1 Maize
Crop Harvested
Ton(bags)/ha/annum                          8
Price per ton(bags) gross
(R/ton(bag))                              800
Gross income (R/ha/annum)                6400
Direct costs( R/ha/annum)                7000
Water (m³/annum)                         7500

Crop 2 Brassicas
Percentage of total area                   40
Crop Harvested
Ton(bags)/ha/annum                       5000
Price per ton(bags) gross
(R/ton(bag))                              13.5
Gross income (R/ha/annum)               67500
Direct costs( R/ha/annum)               41000
Water (m³/annum)                         3600

Total gross income (R/ha/yr)            33400

Total direct cost (R/ha/yr)             23400
O&M of infrastructure (R/ha/yr)         914.5
Discounted capital cost (R/ha/yr)        7465
Water cost (R/ha/yr)                     2664
Total discounted cost R/ha/yr           34444

Benefit:cost ratio                         1.0

ITEM                                Project    Life Maint. Maint. Discount Period Discounted
                                    capital                         rate             cost
                                     cost
Description                         (R/ha)    (year) (%) (R/ha/yr)  (%)     (yr)   (R/ha/yr)
Prelim. and General                     11000     40  0.0%       0 4.00%       40         556
Excavate & backfill                     36600     40  0.0%       0 4.00%       40        1849
HDPE Pipe and fittings                   2700     40  0.5%      14 4.00%       40         136
PVC Pipe and fittings                   31200     40  0.5%    156 4.00%        40        1576
Sprinklers                               1600      5  5.0%      80 4.00%         5        359
Valves and other                         1500     15  1.0%      15 4.00%       15         135
Steel pipe and fittings                  2400     20  1.0%      24 4.00%       20         177
Pump set                                 6100     10  5.0%    305 4.00%        10         752
Pump house, concrete etc.               10500     40  1.0%    105 4.00%        40         530
Security fencing                          100     15  5.0%       5 4.00%       15            9
Fencing                                  8100     15  1.0%      81 4.00%       15         729
Soil Conservation                        5000     40  1.0%      50 4.00%       40         253
Roads                                    8000     40  1.0%      80 4.00%       40         404
Total cost                             124800                     915                          7465


Double cropping is just economically viable (benefit cost ration 1) for maize and braccicas.
                                              126
TABLE 4.1.9 SIMPLYFIED FINANCIAL ANALYSIS FOR A TYPICAL DRAGLINE SPRINKLER
IRRIGATION SCHEME WITH SUBSURFACE DRAINAGE, USING A SELECTED INTEREST RATE
OVER A SELECTED LOAN PERIOD, ASSUMING DOUBLE CROPPING.


Water at 30 % subsidy (c/m³)                   41
Capital subsidy %                              90



Crop 1 Maize
Crop Harvested
Ton(bags)/ha/annum                              8
Price per ton(bags) gross
(R/ton(bag))                                  800
Gross income (R/ha/annum)                    6400
Direct costs( R/ha/annum)                    7000
Water (m³/annum)                             7500

Crop 2 Brassicas
Percentage of total area                       40
Crop Harvested
Ton(bags)/ha/annum                           5000
Price per ton(bags) gross
(R/ton(bag))                                  13.5
Gross income (R/ha/annum)                   67500
Direct costs( R/ha/annum)                   41000
Water (m³/annum)                             3600

Total gross income (R/ha/yr)                33400

Total direct cost (R/ha/yr)                 23400
O&M of infrastructure (R/ha/yr)             914.5
Capital redemption (R/ha/yr)                 2047
Water cost (R/ha/yr)                         3665
Total cost R/ha/yr                          30027
Nett income for the farmer (R/ha/yr)         3373

ITEM                                   Subsidised Life Maint. Maint.       Interest Period Discounted
                                       capital cost                          rate             cost
                                        for farmer
Description                               (R/ha)    (year) (%) (R/ha/yr)    (%)     (yr)     (R/ha/yr)
Prelim. and General                            1100    40   0.0%       0   10.00%      10           179
Excavate & backfill                            3660    40   0.0%       0   10.00%      10           596
HDPE Pipe and fittings                          270    40   0.5%     14    10.00%      10             44
PVC Pipe and fittings                          3120    40   0.5%    156    10.00%      10           508
Sprinklers                                      160      5  5.0%     80    10.00%        5            42
Valves and other                                150    15   1.0%     15    10.00%      10             24
Steel pipe and fittings                         240    20   1.0%     24    10.00%      10             39
Pump set                                        610    10   5.0%    305    10.00%      10             99
Pump house                                     1050    40   1.0%    105    10.00%      10           171
Security fencing for pump house                  10    15   5.0%       5   10.00%      10              2
Fencing                                         810    15   1.0%     81    10.00%      10           132
Soil Conservation                               500    40   1.0%     50    10.00%      10             81
Roads                                           800    40   1.0%     80    10.00%      10           130
Total cost                                    12480                 915                            2047
                                           127



A reasonable profit is possible with maize/cabbage double cropping providing that cabbage is
planted on at least 40 % of the area and that the irrigation system is subsidized by 90 % and the
dam capital cost by 30 %. The marketing and price fluctuation of the cabbage remains
problematic. Planting on contract and /or adding value by cold packaging should be considered.
Similar analyses were done for other cropping scenarios here below.


TABLE 4.1.10 SIMPLYFIED FINANCIAL ANALYSIS FOR A SPRINKLER IRRIGATION SCHEME
WITH SUBSURFACE DRAINAGE FOR VARIOUS DOUBLE CROPPING CENARIOS.


 CROPS            % OF CROP PLANTED       BENEFIT :      PROFIT
                                          COST RATIO     (R/ha/annum)
 Maize/Cabbage    100/40                  1.0            3373
 Maize/Potato     100/40                  1.0            3448
 Maize/Wheat      100/100                 0.6            -5564
 Soya/Wheat       100/100                 0.8            -1010
 Soya/Cabbage     100/40                  1.1            7926
 Soya/Potato      100/40                  1.1            8000
 Wheat/Potato     100/40                  1.1            8262
 Wheat            100                     0.6            -1889
 Maize            100                     0.4            -6350
 Soya             100                     0.5            -2083



With some double cropping combinations, a reasonable profit may be obtained assuming a
90% capital subsidy. It is obvious that vegetables have to form part of any double cropping
scenario.


TABLE 4.1.11 SIMPLYFIED FINANCIAL ANALYSIS FOR A SPRINKLER IRRIGATION SCHEME
WITH SUBSURFACE DRAINAGE FOR VARIOUS CROPS INDICATING BREAK-EVEN PRICE AT
90% CAPITAL SUBSIDY


 CROP                                             BREAK EVEN PRICE (R/TON)
 Soya only                                        2300
 Maize only                                       1600
 Wheat only                                       1800
 Soya/Wheat                                       1900/1600
 Maize/Wheat                                      1200/1900



It is clear that it would not be very likely to break even with only Maize under irrigation
                                                 128


4.2   Dry land cultivation

      SELECTED MIX OF CROPS FOR DRY LAND CULTIVATION
      TO OBTAIN AVERAGE COSTS AND INCOME
            CROP             MAIZE        SOYA          DRY           MAIZE         % OF
                             EARLY                     BEANS          LATE         TOTAL
                                                                                   AREA
         Cost (R/ha)            3800          2900          3900          3800
        R/bag (R/ton)             800         1800          4000            800
        Yield bags/ha                4          2.5           1.5             4
           (ton/ha)
          % of area                20            30           20              30
      OCT                        XXX                         XXX                      40
      NOV                        XXX                         XXX                      40
      DEC                        XXX           XXX           XXX           XXX       100
      JAN                        XXX           XXX           XXX           XXX       100
      FEB                        XXX           XXX           XXX           XXX       100
      MRCH                       XXX           XXX                         XXX        60
      APR                                      XXX                         XXX        60
      MAY                                                                  XXX         0
      JUN                                                                              0
      JUL                                                                              0
      AUG                                                                              0
      SEP                                                                              0




      COST (R/ha)                3550
      INCOME (R/ha)              4150


      It is evident that the price of grains has the “normal” ups and downs. All are presently in an
      upswing phase, with the price for maize for July 2006 already over R700/ton. It is expected that
      it will continue its upward trend since considerable less maize is expected to be planted during
      the next season. The regression curves indicate a constant upward movement. This has not been
      corrected for inflation. The only reliable information regarding price is historical data and it is
      difficult to predict what the price will be in the future, with the free market system that we are
      working in. Long-term predictions by experts are available at a price. It is recommended that
      this route be followed for large-scale development. For the purpose of this study, average long-
      term prices have been assumed as the average prices obtained in the past.
                                                   129

        For a discounted water cost of 24 c/m³ and for double cropping, assuming a mix of crops as per
        the above table, a benefit cost ratio of 1 is achieved which indicate break even input values.
        Due to the unavailability of sufficient data on the potentially irrigable soil, and with the
        available macro surveys indicating low probability of good irrigable soils in the areas that
        would be economically irrigable, the cost for subsurface drainage has been included in the
        above cost. Without that, the benefit cost ratio would be much better.


SIMPLYFIED FINANCIAL ANALYSIS FOR A TYPICAL DRY LAND SCHEME, USING A
SELECTED DISCOUNT RATE OVER THE LIFE SPAN OF EQUIPMENT, ASSUMING
DOUBLE CROPPING


Total gross income (R/ha/yr)            4150


Total direct cost (R/ha/yr)             3550
O&M of infrastructure (R/ha/yr)           90
Discounted capital cost (R/ha/yr)        663
Water cost (R/ha/yr)                       0
Total discounted cost R/ha/yr           4303


Benefit : cost ratio                     1.0


ITEM                                Project   Life  Maint. Maint. Discount Period Discounted
                                    capital                          rate              cost
                                     cost
Description                          R/ha    (year)  %     (R/ha/yr)  %      (yr)    (R/ha/yr)
Prelim. and General                     1000     40   0.0%         0   4.00%      40         51
Fencing                                 4000     15   1.0%        40   4.00%      15        360
Soil Conservation                       3000     40   1.0%        30   4.00%      40        152
Roads                                   2000     40   1.0%        20   4.00%      40        101
Total cost                             10000                      90                        663


Dry land cultivations assuming crops as per table 3.1.1 is just feasible in the long term, as the benefit
cost ratio is 1.
                                                      130

SIMPLYFIED FINANCIAL ANALYSIS FOR A TYPICAL DRY LAND SCHEME, USING A
SELECTED INTEREST RATE OVER A SELECTED LOAN PERIOD, ASSUMING DOUBLE
CROPPING
Capital cost subsidy %                       100

Total gross income (R/ha/yr)                4150

Total direct cost (R/ha/yr)                 3550
O&M of infrastructure (R/ha/yr)               90
Capital redemption (R/ha/yr)                   0
Total cost R/ha/yr                          3640
Nett income for the farmer (R/ha/yr)         510

ITEM                                   Subsidised Life Maint. Maint. Interest Period Discounted
                                       capital cost                        rate            cost
                                        for farmer
Description                                R/ha     (year) %    (R/ha/yr)   %    (yr)    (R/ha/yr)
Prelim. and General                               0     40 0.0%         0 10.00%      10           0
Fencing                                           0     15 1.0%        40 10.00%      10           0
Soil Conservation                                 0     40 1.0%        30 10.00%      10           0
Roads                                             0     40 1.0%        20 10.00%      10           0
Total cost                                        0                    90                          0


A capital subsidy of 100% is required to make it possible to have a positive income. The income per ha is
low, requiring a large area under cultivation per farmer, to make it possible for a farmer to farm full
time. This is still better than the nett income per ha for beef cattle farming on natural grassland.


4.3     Grazing/live stock


        The previously neglected areas east of Madadeni require significant assistance related to live stock
        farming. The absence of fences is a major concern, as it is not possible to manage grazing optimally
        without fencing and camping systems. This has been discussed in full detail elsewhere in the document.
        Dip facilities, holding pens and loading facilities are also in short supply in this area. The quality of
        stock and herd composition is also far from optimal. The calf mortality rate and low calving percentage
        is of great concern. There are also a low relative proportion of fertile female animals in the average
        herd. It has been shown before(1.3.1) that the average meat yield per ha could be improved by 25% to
        50% by only improving the herd composition. Further improvements are possible when the quality of
        stock could be improved and camp systems employed. The present overstocking (approximately
        2ha/AU) against the carrying capacity (approximately 4ha/AU) is of great concern.


         A major effort is required in terms of social facilitation and professional extension work in the
        previously neglected areas, to ensure an improved and long-term stable income for the cattle farmers.
                                            131

SIMPLYFIED FINANCIAL ANALYSIS FOR A BEEF CATTLE FARM ON NATURAL
GRASSVELD (4 HA/AU) USING A SELECTED DISCOUNT RATE OVER THE LIFE SPAN
OF EQUIPMENT
Total gross income               236
(R/ha/yr)
Total direct cost                 75
(R/ha/yr)
O&M of infrastructure             53
(R/ha/yr)
Discounted capital cost          115
(R/ha/yr)
Total discounted cost            243
R/ha/yr

Benefit:cost ratio                1.0

ITEM                       Project    Life  Maint.    Maint. Interest Period Discounted
                           capital                             rate              cost
                            cost
Description                 R/ha     (year)  (%)    (R/ha/yr)     (%)   (yr)   (R/ha/yr)
Prelim. and General              100     40    0.0%           0 4.00%       40           5
Fencing                        1000      15    5.0%         50 4.00%        15         90
Dip tanks-holding pens           200     40    1.0%           2 4.00%       20         15
Roads                            100     40    1.0%           1 4.00%       40           5
Total cost                     1400                         53                        115


SIMPLYFIED FINANCIAL ANALYSIS FOR A BEEF CATTLE FARM ON NATURAL
GRASSVELD (4 HA/AU) USING A SELECTED INTEREST RATE OVER THE A SELECTED
LOAN PERIOD.
Capital subsidy %                 90
Total gross income               236
(R/ha/yr)
Total direct cost                 75
(R/ha/yr)
O&M of infrastructure             53
(R/ha/yr)
Capital redemption                23
(R/ha/yr)
Total cost R/ha/yr               151
Nett income for the               85
farmer (R/ha/yr)

ITEM                      Subsidised Life     Maint.    Maint. Interest Period     Capital
                          capital cost                           rate            redemption
                           for farmer
Description                   R/ha     (year)  (%)    (R/ha/yr)     (%)   (yr)    (R/ha/yr)
Prelim. and General                 10     40    0.0%           0 10.00%      10            2
Fencing                            100     15    5.0%         50 10.00%       10           16
Dip tanks-holding pens              20     40    1.0%           2 10.00%      10            3
Roads                               10     40    1.0%           1 10.00%      10            2
Total cost                         140                        53                           23
                                                               132

         The income per ha is very low, requiring a large area per farmer, to make it possible for a farmer to
         farm full time. The profit increases to more than R 240/ha/annum if it is possible to maintain 2ha/AU
         over the long run. The importance of managing the grass veld properly to ensure a long term stable
         income can not be over emphasized. With the grazing shared with sheep a significant increase in profit
         per ha is possible.

4.4      Piggeries

Table 4.4.1 piggery gross margin

Sows                                                   100.00
Boars                                                    5.00
Price sows (R)                                        1200.00
Price of Boar ( R)                                    2500.00
Farrowing interval / year                                2.30
Number born per pig                                     12.00
Mortality rate ( pre- weaning) percentage               10.00
Mortality rate ( post weaning) percentage                6.00Assume mortality in 1 st week after weened
Average porker yield per sow (after mortality)          10.08
Porkers per sow per year                                23.18

Cost of Sow and Boar feed R per kg                          2.00
Cost of Weaner feed R per kg                                2.60
Cost of Porker feed R per kg                                1.90

Kg's feed eaten per day:
Sow and boar                                                2.80
Weaner                                                      1.90
Porker                                                      2.10

Cost of transport of porkers per pig (R)                   30.00
Veterinary cost per pig (R)                                 3.00
Interest rate %                                            10.00Calculated with "Bank balance"
Other costs (% of operating cost)                           3.00Marketing etc.

Carcass weight at selling -Porkers (kg)                    53.00
Selling price of porkers ( R/kg)                           14.00

Item/Month                  1         2          3         4         5       6       7           8       9     10     11
Costs (R)
Animals                30250     24000     24000     24000     30250
Cum. no. animal           20        40        60        80       302       503     705     906        1108    1108  1108
Sow & Boar feed         3780      7140     10500     13860     17640     17640   17640   17640       17640   17640 17640
Weaner feed                                                    17926     17926   17926   17926       17926   17926 17926
Porker feed                                                              14479   28958   43437       57916   72395 72395
Transport porkers                                                                                                   6048
Veterinary                60       120       180       240       905      1510    2114    2719        3324   3324   3324
Other                    115       218       320       423      1094      1547    1999    2452        2904   3339   3520
Total costs (R)        34205     31478     35000     38523     67815     53101   68638   84174       99710 114623 120853
Total income(R)                                                                                                   149587

Bank balance(R)       -34205 -65968 -101518 -140887 -209876 -264727 -335571 -422541 -525772 -644777 -621416

Break even point ( year)                             2.8
Profit after break even ( R/ sow)                   287
Profit after break even ( R/ month)               28734
Profit after break even ( R/ annum)              344813
                                                      133

TABLE 4.4.2 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS FOR A TYPICAL 100 SOW
PIGGERY
USING A SELECTED DISCOUNT RATE OVER THE LIFE SPAN OF EQUIPMENT

Gross income (R/annum)                  300000

O&M of infrastructure (R/yr)             45000
Discounted capital cost (R/yr)          263739
Total discounted cost R/yr              308739

Benefit:cost ratio                           1.0

ITEM                                  Project    Life  Maint. Maint. Discount Period Discounted
                                      capital                          rate              cost
                                       cost
Description                             (R)     (year)  (%)   (R/yr)   (%)     (yr)     (R/yr)
Building                               4000000      40   0.5% 20000 4.00%         40     202094
Mechanical                               500000     40   5.0% 25000 4.00%         10      61645
Total cost                             4500000                 45000                     263739

From a financier’s perspective it seems as if a piggery project may be feasible i.e. a benefit cost ratio of 1 may
be possible.


FINANCIAL ANALYSIS FOR A TYPICAL 100 SOW PIGGERY
USING A SELECTED INTEREST RATE OVER A SELECTED REPAYMENT PERIOD

FINANCIAL ANALYSIS FOR A TYPICAL 100 SOW PIGGERY
USING A SELECTED INTEREST RATE OVER A SELECTED REPAYMENT PERIOD
Capital subsidy %                   90

Gross income (R/annum)                  300000
O&M of infrastructure (R/yr)             45000
Discounted capital cost (R/yr)          146471
Total discounted cost R/yr              191471
Nett income for the farmer (R/yr)       108529

ITEM                                Subsidised Life     Maint. Maint. Interest Period Discounted
                                    capital cost                        rate              cost
                                     for farmer
Description                              (R)     (year)  (%)   (R/yr)   (%)     (yr)     (R/yr)
Building                                  400000     40   0.5% 20000 10.00%        10      65098
Mechanical                                500000     40   5.0% 25000 10.00%        10      81373
Total cost                                900000                45000                     146471

It is evident that capital subsidization of at least 90 % is required to make it economically feasible for the
farmer.
                                                       134


4.5     Poultry

FINANCIAL ANALYSIS FOR A TYPICAL 10000 BIRD POULTRY UNIT
USING A SELECTED DISCOUNT RATE OVER THE LIFE SPAN OF EQUIPMENT

Gross income (R/annum)                     160000

O&M of infrastructure (R/yr)                19000
Discounted capital cost (R/yr)              83062
Total discounted cost R/yr                 102062

Benefit:cost ratio                             1.6

ITEM                                     Project  Life Maint.        Maint. Discount Period Discounted
                                         capital                              rate             cost
                                          cost
Description                                (R)   (year)  (%)         (R/yr)    (%)      (yr)     (R/yr)
Building                                 1400000      40 1.0%         14000    4.00%       40      70733
Mechanical                                100000      40 5.0%          5000    4.00%       10      12329
Total cost                               1500000                      19000                        83062


From a financier’s perspective it seems as if a poultry project may be very feasible i.e. a benefit cost ratio of up
to 3.5 may be possible.

FINANCIAL ANALYSIS FOR A TYPICAL 10000 BIRD POULTRY UNIT
USING A SELECTED INTEREST RATE OVER A SELECTED REPAYMENT PERIOD

Capital subsidy %                                 90

Gross income (R/annum)                       160000
O&M of infrastructure (R/yr)                  19000
Discounted capital cost (R/yr)                39059
Total discounted cost R/yr                    58059
Nett income for the farmer (R/yr)            101941

ITEM                                    Subsidised Life Maint. Maint. Interest Period Discounted
                                        capital cost                    rate              cost
                                         for farmer
Description                                  (R)     (year) (%) (R/yr)  (%)     (yr)     (R/yr)
Building                                      140000     40 1.0% 14000 10.00%      10      22784
Mechanical                                    100000     40 5.0% 5000 10.00%       10      16275
Total cost                                    240000             19000                     39059

It is evident that capital subsidization of at least 90 % is required to make it economically feasible for the
farmer.
                                                      135

4.6     Dairy


FINANCIAL ANALYSIS FOR A TYPICAL 100 COW DAIRY WITH 30 HA OF IRRIGATED PASTURES
AND 50 HA DRY LAND MAIZE AND GRASS.
USING A SELECTED DISCOUNT RATE OVER THE LIFE SPAN OF EQUIPMENT



Gross income (R/annum)                     344813

O&M of infrastructure (R/yr)                46785
Discounted capital cost (R/yr)             232409
Total discounted cost R/yr                 279194

Benefit:cost ratio                             1.2

ITEM                                     Project   Life Maint. Maint. Discount Period Discounted
                                         capital                        rate              cost
                                          cost
Description                                (R)    (year) (%) (R/yr)     (%)     (yr)     (R/yr)
Prelim. and General                       200000      40 0.0%       0    4.00%     40       10105
Excavate & backfill                       303000      40 0.0%       0    4.00%     40       15309
HDPE Pipe and fittings                      81000     40 0.5%    405     4.00%     40        4092
PVC Pipe and fittings                     486000      40 0.5% 2430       4.00%     40       24554
Sprinklers                                  48000      5 5.0% 2400       4.00%       5      10782
Valves and other                            45000     15 1.0%    450     4.00%     15        4047
Steel pipe and fittings                     72000     20 1.0%    720     4.00%     20        5298
Pumpset                                   183000      10 5.0% 9150       4.00%     10       22562
Pumphouse, concrete etc.                    15000     40 1.0%    150     4.00%     40          758
Security fencing                             3000     15 5.0%    150     4.00%     15          270
Fencing                                   443000      15 1.0% 4430       4.00%     15       39844
Soil Conservation                         240000      40 1.0% 2400       4.00%     40       12126
Roads                                     160000      40 1.0% 1600       4.00%     40        8084
Milking parlour                           500000      40 0.5% 2500       4.00%     40       25262
Milking machine and cooler tanks          400000      40 5.0% 20000      4.00%     10       49316
Total cost                               3179000               46785                       232409

From a financier’s perspective it seems as if a dairy project may be feasible i.e. a benefit cost ratio of 1,2 may
be possible.
                                                     136

FINANCIAL ANALYSIS FOR A TYPICAL 100 COW DAIRY WITH 30 HA OF IRRIGATED PASTURES
AND 50 HA DRY LAND MAIZE AND GRASS.
USING A SELECTED INTEREST RATE OVER A SELECTED REPAYMENT PERIOD

Capital subsidy %                              90

Gross income (R/annum)                    344813
O&M of infrastructure (R/yr)               46785
Discounted capital cost (R/yr)             51737
Total discounted cost R/yr                 98522
Nett income for the farmer (R/yr)         246291

ITEM                                  Subsidised Life Maint. Maint.     Interest Period Discounted
                                      capital cost                        rate             cost
                                       for farmer
Description                                (R)     (year) (%) (R/yr)     (%)      (yr)     (R/yr)
Prelim. and General                          20000     40 0.0%     0    10.00%       10        3255
Excavate & backfill                          30300     40 0.0%     0    10.00%       10        4931
HDPE Pipe and fittings                        8100     40 0.5%   405    10.00%       10        1318
PVC Pipe and fittings                        48600     40 0.5% 2430     10.00%       10        7909
Sprinklers                                    4800      5 5.0% 2400     10.00%       10          781
Valves and other                              4500     15 1.0%   450    10.00%       10          732
Steel pipe and fittings                       7200     20 1.0%   720    10.00%       10        1172
Pumpset                                      18300     10 5.0% 9150     10.00%       10        2978
Pumphouse, concrete etc.                      1500     40 1.0%   150    10.00%       10          244
Security fencing                               300     15 5.0%   150    10.00%       10           49
Fencing                                      44300     15 1.0% 4430     10.00%       10        7210
Soil Conservation                            24000     40 1.0% 2400     10.00%       10        3906
Roads                                        16000     40 1.0% 1600     10.00%       10        2604
Milking parlour                              50000     40 0.5% 2500     10.00%       10        8137
Milking machine and cooler tanks             40000     40 5.0% 20000    10.00%       10        6510
Total cost                                  317900             46785                          51737

It is evident that capital subsidization of at least 90 % is required to make it economically feasible for the
farmer.




4.7     Feedlot


FINANCIAL ANALYSIS FOR A TYPICAL 400 BEAST FEEDLOT
WITH RUDIMENTARY FACILITIES
USING A SELECTED DISCOUNT RATE OVER THE LIFE SPAN OF EQUIPMENT



Gross income (R/annum)                  120000

O&M of infrastructure (R/yr)             20000
Discounted capital cost (R/yr)           73582
Total discounted cost R/yr               93582

Benefit:cost ratio                          1.3
                                                        137

ITEM                                      Project  Life Maint. Maint. Discount Period Discounted
                                          capital                       rate              cost
                                           cost
Description                                 (R)   (year)  (%)  (R/yr)   (%)     (yr)     (R/yr)
Building and camps                        1000000      20 2.0% 20000 4.00%         20      73582
Total cost                                1000000               20000                      73582

From a financier’s perspective it seems as if a feedlot project may be feasible i.e. a benefit cost ratio of 1,3 may
be possible.


FINANCIAL ANALYSIS FOR A TYPICAL 400 BEAST FEEDLOT
WITH RUDIMENTARY FACILITIES
USING A SELECTED INTEREST RATE OVER A SELECTED REPAYMENT PERIOD

Capital subsidy %                                 90

Gross income (R/annum)                       120000
O&M of infrastructure (R/yr)                  20000
Discounted capital cost (R/yr)                16275
Total discounted cost R/yr                    36275
Nett income for the farmer (R/yr)             83725

ITEM                                    Subsidised Life Maint. Maint. Interest Period Discounted
                                        capital cost                    rate              cost
                                         for farmer
Description                                  (R)     (year) (%)  (R/yr) (%)     (yr)     (R/yr)
Building and camps                            100000     20 2.0% 20000 10.00%      10      16275
Total cost                                    100000              20000                    16275

It is evident that capital subsidization of at least 90 % is required to make it economically feasible for the
farmer.


5     SUMMARY RECOMMENDATIONS

          Following is a summary of the recommendations referring to the specific Clauses:

5.1       Irrigation projects (Clause 1.6.1)

          Recommendation:
         Conduct, as a matter of urgency, micro soil surveys along the rivers mentioned to confirm the irrigation
          potential of the soils.
         Compile generic business plans for projects on the identified available land.
         Develop terms of reference for the appointment of specialists to mentor and assist future farmers.



5.2       Dry land projects (Clause 1.6.2)

          Recommendation:
         Conduct, as a matter of urgency, micro soil surveys along the rivers mentioned to confirm the irrigation
          potential of the soils.
                                                        138

         Compile generic business plans for projects on the identified available land.
         Develop terms of reference for the appointment of specialists to mentor and assist future farmers.

5.3       Stock Farming Projects (Clause 1.6.3)

          Recommendation:
         Conduct a survey of the proposed areas and compile a needs analysis for the required infrastructure.
         Compile generic business plans for projects on the identified available land with recommendations on
          extension and training needs.
         Develop terms of reference for the appointment of specialists to mentor and assist future farmers.

5.4       Piggeries (Clause 1.6.4.1)

          Recommendation:
         Conduct a survey of the possible areas and compile a needs analysis for the required infrastructure. Also
          conduct market surveys for inclusion in the business plans.
         Compile generic business plans for projects on the identified available land with recommendations on
          extension and training needs.
         Develop terms of reference for the appointment of piggery specialists to mentor and assist future
          farmers.



5.5       Poultry (Clause 1.6.4.2)

          Recommendation:
         Conduct a survey of the possible project areas and compile a needs analysis for the required
          infrastructure.
         Compile generic business plans for projects on the identified available land with recommendations on
          extension and training needs.
         Conduct market surveys and the need for abattoirs.
         Develop terms of reference for the appointment of poultry specialists to mentor and assist prospective
          poultry farmers.

5.6       Dairies (Clause 1.6.4.3)

          Recommendation:
         Conduct a survey of the possible areas and compile a needs analysis for the required infrastructure. Also
          conduct market surveys for inclusion in the business plans.
         Compile generic business plans for projects on manageable sizes of identified available land with
          recommendations on inter alia extension and training needs.
         Develop terms of reference for the appointment of a dairy specialist to mentor and assist prospective
          dairy farmers.
                                                         139

5.7       Feedlots (Clause 1.6.4.4)

          Recommendation:
         Conduct a survey of the possible areas and compile a needs analysis for the required infrastructure. Also
          conduct market surveys for inclusion in the business plans.
         Compile generic business plans for projects on the identified available land with recommendations on
          extension and training needs.
         Develop terms of reference for the appointment of feedlot specialists to mentor and assist prospective
          dairy farmers.



5.8       Other Projects for consideration (Clause 1.6.5)

          Recommendation:
         Conduct a survey of possible projects with feasibility studies and needs analysis and embark on a
          campaign to sensitize investors and farmers in the potential of these projects. Also conduct market
          surveys for inclusion in the business plans.
         Develop generic business plans for projects with recommendations on inter alia extension and training
          needs.
         Develop terms of reference for the appointment of specialists to mentor and assist prospective farmers.



5.9       Soils (Clause 2.5.3)


          It is proposed that a micro soil survey be conducted for all the relevant proposed cultivation projects, as
          a matter of urgency, to confirm the potential from a soils perspective, as only macro soils information is
          available at present. A detailed stock carrying capacity/veld type survey needs to be conducted for the
          potentially upgradeable grazing areas in order to establish a feasible veld management system. It is
          further recommended that Agricultural Engineers be appointed to assist with the project specific
          detailed analysis, designs and contract administration.
5.10      Environmental issues. (Clause 2.15)

          Recommendations:


          Cooper (1985) recommends that all indigenous forests should fall under the control of the State – which
          has the resources and expertise to manage them effectively. The second feasible alternative for the
          forest could be that all landowners belong to a conservancy. The advantage of this option is that the
          landowners will receive guidance on the proper management of forests and particularly forest margins.
          In addition to this, patrolling game guards could restrict woodcutting, bark stripping, poaching and the
          indiscriminate use of fires.
                                                    140

5.11   Herd Composition (Clause 3.4.4)
       Conclusion:


       We suggest a consented effort to improve grazing management and herd management.
       The urgency of this matter necessitates a more detailed study than the present one, specifically
       addressing issues of:
       Tribal Custom relating to stock use.
       Attitudes towards economic use of stock.
       Possibilities for Grazing Management within the confines of a Tribal System.
       Scenario Planning and Implementation Recommendations, with specific Tribal Authority areas as trial
       areas.
                                                        141

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                                               144

WEBSITES


The development of post-harvest systems and agro-industry as a strategy to raise the income of the
rural poor.
www.ifpri.org/themes/mp20.htm


Promoting growth in smallholder farming areas of South Africa through agricultural diversification.
www.ifpri.org/themes/mp07/sa/sa.htm


Promoting growth and diversification through markets for high value crop and animal products.
www.ifpri.org/themes/mp07.htm


ELYOT, C. 2002. Land claims to game reserve?
www.southafrica.info/ess_info/sa_glance/sustainable/land_claims.htm


VAN DUFFELEN, L. 1999. Game bid to boost economy, create jobs. December 12, 1999.
www.busrep.co.za/index.php?fSectionId=561&fArticleId=73195

								
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