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                             Director’s Report

Social Sciences Institute (SSI), located at National Agricultural Research
Centre (NARC), is the field research wing of Social Sciences Division of
Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC). PARC is the country’s
lead federal agricultural research organization which is responsible to steer
the National Agricultural Research System (NARS) through strengthening
and coordinating its various components. Being the prime institution of
agricultural research, the main focus of the council is to undertake and
promote research in those areas which do not fall under the priority
research programmes of other components of the NARS. PARC perform
such role through its research establishments located in different agro-
ecological zones of Pakistan. NARC constitutes one of the largest research
establishments located at Islamabad. SSI was established in July 1990 as
an important component of NARC Master Research Plan with a specific
mandate to ensure the active participation of multi-disciplinary teams of
scientists from social, biological, natural resources and farm machinery
disciplines to conduct priority research for the NARS. SSI operates through
several research programs involving sister research institutions,
development agencies, NGOs and other stakeholders. In the past, the
achievements of SSI have regularly been incorporated in the annual
reports of PARC and NARC. As we are reporting our annual (2003-2004)
activities for the first time it will be in order to explain briefly the mandate of
SSI and its three components. The mandate of the SSI is as under:

Mandate
 undertake research on different priority problems of national and
  regional importance in the disciplines of agricultural social sciences;
 provide research back-up to the biological scientists working on
  different crops and livestock;
 develop and strengthen linkages with research and extension for
  technology transfer;
 extend consultancy/advisory services to the biological scientists; and
 human resource development through trainings, workshops, seminars
  and conferences.
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The institute is targeting its mandate through its following three
components:

       Socioeconomics Programme
       Biometric s Programme
       Gender and Development Programme

Each programme has its own agenda which ultimately contribute to
achieve the set targets of SSI. Since the establishment of the institute, the
scientists of the respective programmes have remained involved in multi-
disciplinary and collaborative research activities, under the given mission of
each unit.

Socioeconomics Programme

   Initially, this programme was established in 1984 as an independent
    programme with the name of Agricultural Economics Research Unit
    (AERU) which was ultimately merged into SSI as Socioeconomics
    Programme. The prime objective of the programme is to study farm
    level issues and provide feedback on technology verification and
    adoption.

Biometrics Programme

   This programme was also initiated in May, 1984 with the name of
    Computer and Statistics Section (CSS) and ultimately merged in SSI as
    Biometrics Programme. The prime objective of the programme is to
    enhance the quality and credibility of biological research conducted at
    NARC.

Gender & Development Programme

   Gender & Development Programme is the youngest programme of SSI.
    Gender and Development (GAD) approach has emerged as a result of
    the shortcomings of Women in Development (WID) approach,
    concentrating on the unequal relations between men and women. WID
    was focused on using development resources for improving women's
    conditions and making their contributions visible. However, it did not
    address the basic structure of inequality in the relationship between
    women and men, as it had a tendency to focus solely on women. The
    term gender arose as an analytical tool from an increasing awareness
    of inequalities due to institutional structures. In most of the societies
    gender relations are unbalanced and women often make their
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   contributions with unequal access to control over and benefits from
   natural resources and resource use. It is an essential condition for
   people-centered sustainable agricultural and rural development to
   transform partnership of women and men based on equality. To ensure
   sustainable development it is imperative to promote gender equality in
   the access to sufficient, safe and nutritionally adequate food; access to,
   control over and management of natural resources and agricultural
   support services. The main objectives of Gender and Development
   Programme are to focus its efforts to mainstream gender in agricultural
   research; arrange training workshops/symposiums/conferences in order
   to sensitize biological and social scientists for integrating gender
   analysis in their research studies; conduct research studies in
   collaboration with biological scientists by integrating gender analysis in
   agricultural research; and to conduct baseline surveys to establish data
   base on gender roles in agricultural activities.


Research Activities in Brief

The emerging regime of World Trade Organization (WTO) has imposed the
challenge to produce quality and cost effective products to compete in the
international markets. It is assumed that the WTO will create an
environment for free trade which will bring more efficiency in the use of
resources. Required adjustments have to be made in agricultural
production systems. The scientists working in the National Research
System of Pakistan are striving hard to make agricultural production
systems more efficient and more productive. The agricultural social
scientists link biological and other agricultural sciences into a real-life
farming system. Social scientists provide help to analyze emerging
challenges to the agricultural sector and identify constraints to technology
adoption. The right decisions are required to introduce reforms in the
research, extension, education and policy planning settings to effectively
meet the globalization challenges. The empirical evidence provided by the
social scientists working in different ecologies of the country is critical to
devise right strategies under highly competitive global environment.
Considering all these factors 16 research studies covering wide range of
subjects were conducted by the scientists of SSI during the report period.
Impact study of globalization on cotton-wheat system of Pakistan
highlighted the incentives and resource use efficiency of the system. It is
also providing a complete picture of policy implications in the scenario of
true globalization. The effective rate of protection (ERP) and domestic
resource cost (DRC) indicators were used to measure the economic
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benefits. The prime objective however was futuristic i.e. to examine how
this incentive and efficiency status would change with Pakistan’s inevitable
transition to a liberal economy.
Keeping in view the established facts about low citrus productivity and
expected increase in demand for citrus, it was felt necessary to carry out
study on factors affecting citrus productivity in Pakistan’s Punjab. Matured
sole orchards were more productive than intercropped. Citrus orchards
have economic life up to 30 years. There are underlying socio-economic,
technical and institutional constraints associated. In socio-economic
factors, labour use and orchard farming experienced were negatively and
significantly affecting productivity. On technical side, the contribution of
FYM, fertilizer and plant protection was positive and significant. These
inputs were also found underutilized. The ploughing and hoeing were
positively contributing but statistically non-significant and found over-
utilized. The tubewell irrigation was negatively and significantly contributing
and it was over-used. The role of plant population was negative but non-
significant. In globalization scenario, despite having comparative
advantage, citrus growers were unprotected. The pre- and post-harvest
losses collectively amount to 16 percent of the output. For increasing
productivity along with competitiveness of our citrus fruit in international
markets, strong research and extension efforts are required. For research,
breeding for seedless, insect/disease resistant, salinity tolerant, and small
canopy sized varieties should be developed.

Adoption and impact study of RCT’s was conducted in the rice-wheat
cropping system of Pakistan’s Punjab. This study explained the present
status of no-till drill use and its spill over effects on the farm and at the
household levels. Preliminarily results shows that almost every farmer have
awareness about this new wheat planting method. As compared to the
common wheat planting method of the area (wadwatter), performance of
zero tillage is relatively better. While, pace of adoption is not so
encouraging due to some operational and filed related problems. At
present, farmers have no proper forum for getting answers of their
problems. Overall, majority of the drill users were partial adopters. It was
also reported that due to continuous use of no-till drill wheat yield
decreased in the subsequent years. The adoption rate could be increased
by involving agri-extension department.

Diffusion study was carried out as part of a larger study entitled “Adoption
and Impacts of Resource Conserving Technologies in the irrigated Indo-
Gangetic Plains”. Mainly it was conducted to measure the extent to which
the technology has spread, as well as the rate at which it continue to
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diffuse among the partners (Manufacturers, Farmers). This study was
planned and conducted in Pakistan’s Punjab. According to the estimates
given by the manufacturers, about 2080 drill have been produced up to the
year 2003 and out of these drill, 93 percent have been sold in the different
rice producing areas o Punjab. About 90 percent drills were produced at
Daska/Sialkot, While the second larger drill producing District was
Hafizabad. Commercial manufacturing of zero-till drills began in 1995 with
the manufacture of two drills and in the year 1996, only 10 additional drills
were produced. Manufacturing and sales peaked in 2002 at levels
exceeding 500 drills. Nearly 90 percent of these drills were sold to farmers
in the Punjab, with the remaining 10% sold to farmers from other
Provinces. Average retail selling prices have increased relatively little
through time. Second, the range of prices between the most expensive drill
available in the market and the least expensive drill has widened
significantly. Manufacturers indicated that the difference between more
expensive and less expensive drills can be attributed mainly to differences
in materials and design. Integrated efforts of engineers, scientists,
manufacturers, OFWM and agri-extenson department are highly required
to successfully promote the technology.


Traditionally pulses were cultivated in the rice producing districts of Punjab,
but with the availability of canal and tube well water, farmers have changed
their preferences and started to grow high value crops like rice, wheat,
vegetables, melons and oilseed crops. The sequential cropping of Rice and
wheat crops has resulted in low inherent soil fertility along with inside
spaced deficiencies of macro and micronutrients. The problem of soil
fertility and its severity increased very rapidly. To overcome this important
problem scientists have developed some short duration and high yielding
spring pulses varieties. The present study revealed that as a third crop,
spring pulses are profitable as compared to the prevailing rotations, but in
those areas where melons and vegetables were grown in the spring
season, pulses based rotation is not economical. While technically, spring
pulses are only feasible before Super Basmati because its planting starts in
the last week of June and goes up to the last week of July. The third
parameter “appropriate soil type and availability of irrigation water in the
spring season”: was also found favorable for pulses cultivation in almost all
rice producing districts.

 This study was initiated to generate vital information of demand for milk
estimation was initiated to devise an effective livestock policy. it is
imperative to know the demand for the most valuable livestock product,
milk, and quantification of the factors that affect this demand. The demand
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for milk was estimated using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS)
regression technique. After testing various models the double log model
was found to be the best representative one .The milk demand model
showed that the elasticities of the milk price, price of tea an income were
1.646, 0.391 and 1.894 respectively. The highly elastic variables indicate
that if the price of milk rises by 1 percent or the income of the consumers
falls by one percent, there shall be a contraction of demand for milk by 1.65
percent and 1.894 percent respectively. The real prices of milk stagnated
over the period under study, while the nominal prices soared. The per
capita milk availability grew at an average annual rate of 2.8 percent which
is quite encouraging. Milk prices are being managed through adulteration.
Lower cost milk production technologies including high yielding animals
need to be researched into for encouraging increased production . Farmers
need to be provided with the latest technical packages for economical milk
production.

A comparative study of water distribution systems and productivity issues
was specifically planned to analyze the water use efficiencies under
different water use arrangements and allocation of scarce water and land
resources to alternative enterprises. Beneficiaries need to be fully involved
at all stages. Special efforts should be made for command area
development and mini dams should be constructed not as single ownership
but as community dams. Strong coordination and integration among
different departments would enhance the benefits from the precious water
sources. High-level support should be provided for establishing sustainable
WUAs for equitable distribution at small or community dams. The timing of
command area development at mini dams must be coordinated with dam
construction. Project monitoring to increase water use efficiency after the
mini dam construction should be ensured by the funding agency. Mini-
dams also offer good potential for irrigation and aquaculture development
at relatively low cost, and avoid many of the social and technical problems
of small dams.

The study growth, price instability and flexibility of major crops in Pakistan
revealed the increasing price trend for four crops (i.e. wheat, rice,
sugarcane and cotton) studied. Price increased annually from 7.23 percent
for sugarcane to the highest 8.14 percent for wheat. Price fluctuated more
than area, yield and production. Because, farmers are not able to influence
over the price. Ceteris paribus if the area instability will fall, there will be
reduction in the production instability. There will be liberty in the market,
modern factor inputs will be available. Easy and timely availability of
modern factor inputs and sustained supply will reduce area instability
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largely. Support price policies of Government affect the area and
production of selected crops. Government should procure the surplus of
these crops and store it. Moreover, Government should take steps to
promote the export of cash crops especially for cotton and rice. Production
instability can be reduced by the adoption of technological advancement
and new farming techniques. The policy measures taken may not only for a
single crop in the crop sub-sector. The effect of any policy should be
considered on the other crops too.

The report entitled, “assessment of crop livestock production technologies”
highlighted the importance short-term assessment of technological
development process. Because, this activity provides, a logical basis for
updating, enhancing and redesigning the project activities. On- farm testing
of specific technology components should therefore be continued on a
wider scale to ensure broad dissemination and transfer of proven
technologies. However, proper selection and active involvement of farmers
at all stages is a prerequisite to transfer the skills and knowledge to the
target group. Close collaboration and integration among research and
development components should therefore be developed so that the
development components could take-over the accepted and proven
technologies for wider dissemination and adoption.

The study of livestock marketing system provides an overview of the
prevailing marketing conditions and suggesting an effective action plane for
its improvement. Results revealed that markets are suffered from shortage
of basic facilities like watering, shelter, feed and fodder. Other
arrangements like loading/unloading, communication, services of veterinary
doctor, weighing, market boundaries are absent. In NWFP, Balochistan
and AJK, the milk-marketing network is highly limited mainly because of
relatively less population of large ruminants in these provinces. The
slaughterhouses are deprived of many basic facilities like adequate space,
light, shade, water, meat chilling, processing/disposal of byproducts etc.
Overall, the wool marketing system in Pakistan is very poor. The wool
processing industries are mainly confined in the areas where there is little
wool production. There is a strong need to adopt a comprehensive policy
to regularize the marketing system of livestock and livestock products in
Pakistan down to the district level.
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Besides conducting research studies the scientists of the institute have
published their work in national as well as international journals. The
findings of the studies have also been shared with other stake holders
through seminars. Trainings have also been organized for national and
international clients.
It would have not been possible to achieve the set targets with out the
cooperation of the collaborating institutions such as On-farm Water
Management, Rice-Wheat program, Kala Sha Kaku, Barani Village
Development Project (BVDP/ABAD), and National IPM-Program. The
human and financial resources provided by these institutions are highly
appreciated.
We are grateful to the dynamic leadership of PARC/NARC for providing
guidance and facilitating the institute to become a productive component of
NARS.
The efforts of the scientists and supporting staff of the Institute are highly
commendable for successfully pursuing their work plans.




                                                     Ch. Muhammad Sharif,
                                                             PSO/Director
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SOCIOECONOMICS PROGRAMME, SSI, NARC
                                   Reports
       1. FAO……………………………..1
       2. BVDP ………………………….. 2
       3. CIMMYT…………………………2
       4. Rice - Wheat …………………..1
       5. Current Budget……………. .. ..4
   _____________________________________
                 Sub-Total: 10

GENDER AND DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME
             SSI, NARC

        1. Current Budget……………. . 1
        2. BVDP ………………………… 2
        _______________________________
                        Sub-Total: 3


       BIOMETRICS PROGRAMME
             SSI, NARC

                        Reports
        1. Current Budget…………….. . 2

           Grand Total: 15
                           10




SOCIOECONOMICS PROGRAMME
        SSI, NARC
                                                                            11

ACTION PLAN FOR LIVESTOCK MARKETING SYSTEMS IN
                    PAKISTAN
          M. Sharif, Waqar Malik, N.I. Hashmi and Umar Farooq

Pakistan is the homeland of highest milk yielding buffalo and cattle breeds
and the livestock sector is significantly contributing in the agricultural GDP
of Pakistan. On the other hand, government approach towards this sector
is of laisez faire type. Despite that this sector has shown a respectable
growth rate. However, in view of future challenges from the foreign
exchange earnings, population pressure, changes in urban-rural population
composition, etc. it is very likely that the supply-demand gap shall get
widened with the passage of time. It is therefore, necessary to give due
attention to the overall development of this sector. The present exercises
mainly deals with the marketing component of livestock and livestock
products in Pakistan.

In the previous chapter, the detailed action plan has exclusively pointed out
the agencies made responsible for carrying out various activities.

      Following the Terms of Reference (TOR) of the study, holding
       technical discussions and the literature was gathered from various
       institutions such as Livestock and Dairy Development Department,
       Agriculture Universities and Research Institutes, Planning and
       Development department and NGOs in Pakistan. The farmers and
       marketing intermediaries were also consulted in order to get first
       hand information for validating and updating the information.

      On the production side, the average milk yield of buffaloes and cattle
       is very low. The underlying reasons include the application of poor
       animal husbandry practices, exclusive dependence of crop residues
       in feeding and poor record maintenance of animal pedigree etc. The
       root cause is the low prices received by the farmers for the animals
       produced leave small room for them to make improvements in
       management practices.

      On the marketing side, the livestock markets are suffered from
       shortage of basic facilities like watering, shelter, feed and fodder. A
       number     of   other      arrangements       like    loading/unloading,
       communication, services of veterinary doctor, weighing, market
       boundaries etc. are absent despite 3-5 percent commission is
       charged as market fee in Punjab whereas in other provinces various
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    practices are followed. The contract money of these markets is
    not invested back for provision of such facilities. Moreover, there is
    no livestock market authority for regulating livestock marketing in the
    province.

   Beoparies and commission agents are main intermediaries of
    livestock markets. The market intermediaries are comparatively well
    informed about market situations than the farmers. Although the
    services of broker or “dallal” are available, but most of the times they
    extend more favor to buyers than farmers. Some farmers
    complained about forming cartels by market intermediaries by not
    offering prices beyond some limits. In this way, both beoparies and
    commission agents exploit them. The transport means used are not
    suitable, therefore, causing physical distress, bruising and other
    internal/external injuries to the animals.

   Milk collection and marketing system is limited to the peri-urban and
    rural areas well connected to respective urban centers through
    roads and transport means. Villages falling at remote locations are
    deprived of availing this opportunity. In NWFP, Balochistan and
    AJK, the milk-marketing network is highly limited mainly because of
    relatively less population of large ruminants in these provinces.
    Therefore, the prices of liquid milk are very high and the population
    of these provinces is consuming very high priced UHT milk.
    Presently, the large ruminants are sold to livestock traders in NWFP
    and Balochistan from Punjab and Sindh provinces. These provinces
    could be easily linked with the milk marketing system by the same
    way provided that the pasteurization plants and milk transport
    system in chilled form is developed. It is therefore recommended
    that government of Pakistan should take necessary measures to
    establish a competitive milk marketing system in the provinces other
    than Punjab and Sindh. The example of Halla and Nestle milk
    marketing is are success stories, which can be replicated in other
    areas of Pakistan. The successful implementation will also help
    bringing a large resource poor livestock farming community under
    the milk-marketing network and the dominance of milkmen will also
    decreases. Moreover, more number of consumers shall also be
    benefited from the high quality competitive priced milk.

   The slaughterhouses are deprived of many basic facilities like
    adequate     space,    light, shade,     water,     meat     chilling,
    processing/disposal of byproducts etc. This result in not only in un-
    hygienic meat production but also deteriorating the quality of other
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    livestock products like hides and skins, blood, cases and eatable
    offal etc. Meat is transport and displayed as uncovered thus
    exposed to dust, houseflies and other contaminations. The hygienic
    conditions of most of the meat shops are also very poor. Thus all
    meat production and marketing chain is unhygienic.

   Because of fixing the price of meat by the tehsil municipal
    administration, the slaughtering of weak, diseased and old animals
    is very common. Moreover, the prices received by the farmers are
    also very low.

   A great scope for the export of livestock and livestock products
    exists in the markets of European Union, Gulf, Middle East, Central
    Asian countries, Malaysia and Afghanistan. The Muslim states of
    Middle East, Central Asia and countries like Malaysia and
    Afghanistan are relatively more promising markets because of
    religious and other geo-political bondages. In other words, frozen
    “Halal” meat could be easily exported to such states. Moreover, a
    big seasonal demand for live animal at the time of Haj is another
    opportunity. Expansion of meat exports to these countries will help
    alleviating poverty in Pakistan as majority of the livestock producers
    are resource poor farmers and landless households keeping
    subsistence sized herds. It shall also promote businesses falling
    under backward-forward linkages.

   Because of considering hides/skins as byproduct, no professional
    training of the butchers, shortage of space and other facilities at
    slaughterhouses, the quality of hides and skins produced are of poor
    quality in general. The collection system in interiors of Punjab is also
    slow and poor. On the other hand, because of absence of tanneries
    in NWFP and Balochistan provinces, there is undue delay between
    production and processing times. All this collectively seriously
    affects the quality of leather produced. The butchers are relatively
    less informed about prices than collectors and commission agents.
    This is causing great national loss which could be easily repaired by
    taking measures like training the butchers and flayers as well as
    establishing new tanneries with modern processing plants in NWFP,
    Balochistan and AJK on priority basis.

   Overall, the wool marketing system in Pakistan is very poor. The
    wool processing industries are mainly confined in the areas where
    there is little wool production. On the other hand, wrong harvesting
    techniques are used to clip the wool. Later on, it marketing system is
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       contaminated with a number of malpractices like purchasing from
       farmers on per head basis and selling on per Kg basis, mixing of
       wool of different colors, adulterating wool with oil, dirt and greeze in
       order to increase weight etc. are common practices followed.


Researchable Issues in the Livestock Sector of Pakistan

During the execution of this study, it is strongly felt that the relevant
information on various production and marketing aspects of livestock is
highly scanty. It is therefore suggested that further studies should be
conducted on various issues. Some of the studies are highlighted below:

1. Characterization of livestock producers in all provinces of Pakistan.
2. Evaluating the resource base of meat purpose small livestock holders
   and marketing constraints faced.
3. Quantifying the contribution of various inputs in the production of
   livestock in Pakistan.
4. Factors determining value of live animal in the livestock markets of
   Pakistan.
5. Economically viable size of livestock herd for meat and milk production
   purposes.
6. Estimating the extent of exploitation from various intermediaries in the
   marketing of livestock and livestock products.
7. Institutional constraints in the production of livestock with special
   reference to small farmers.
8. Institutional constraints in the marketing of livestock and their products
   in Pakistan.
9. Estimating the extent of potentials in export of livestock and livestock
   products to various regions of the world.

In summary, it would not be an exaggeration that overall development of
the livestock sector of Pakistan can help sustaining the contribution of
agriculture sector in the GDP of Pakistan along with alleviating rural
poverty. Besides these direct these benefits, a number of other indirect
benefits like alleviation of protein and calcium deficiency, employment in
the marketing chains of livestock and livestock products, and increased
supply of farm yard manure for sustaining crop productivity and soil fertility,
cannot be ignored.
                                                                        15
CHARACTERIZATION OF RURAL LIVELIHOODS AND
  LIVELIHOOD STRATEGIES IN THE BARANI AREA
      Hassnain Shah, Ahmed Mazid, M. Sharif and Abdul Majid


   The main objective of this exercise was to conduct further analysis
    on the baseline survey data to develop household livelihood
    typologies for identifying targeted interventions.
   To suggest policy options for poverty alleviation through sustainable
    livelihood strategies.
   This study employed Principle Component Analysis to analyze the
    livelihood strategies of rural households using the data set of 150
    families from the three IRS sites of BVDP.
   Welfare index was computed using household level information on
    natural, physical, financial and human resources possessed. Using
    this welfare index, the households were classified into four welfare
    quartiles.
   Three welfare groups were identified: (1) lowest welfare quartile
    having mixed crop livestock farming with more dependence on crop
    production; (2) medium welfare quartile having 50-50 dependence
    on agriculture and off farm employment; and (3) the high welfare
    quartile having major dependence on off-farm employment and least
    dependence on agriculture.
   It is suggest that the livelihood of least welfare quartile could be
    improved by developing the crop and livestock productivity through
    introducing drought tolerant food and fodder crop varieties, and
    making improvements in the livestock breeds and livestock
    management practices.
   Adoption of improved soil and water conservation practices for
    sustainable use of available resources is another option.
   On the infrastructure side, local institutions, rural networks and non-
    farm enterprises should be developed in order to strengthen
    backward forward linkages.
   Strong coordination between research, development and other
    institutions is also required to make developmental efforts on
    sustainable basis.
   Various micro-enterprises such as sheep/goat fattening, poultry
    farming, cottage industries may be promoted. Solving irrigation
    problem by financing dug wells, establishing mini-dams and other
    similar measures are also necessary for improving the living
    standard of lowest welfare quartile.
                                                                            16
ASSESSMENT OF CROP AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION
      TECHNOLOGIES AT IRS SITES OF BVDP
      Hassnain Shah, Umar Farooq , Nisar Ali Shah and Abdul Majid


The main objective of this exercise was to obtain feedback from the contact
farmers about various interventions introduced by different institutions in
order to increase the overall agricultural productivity of the area. The
information gathered is vital for the research and development institutions
in order to modify their research and development plans and strategies.

Kharif technologies:
Kharif Fodder:

Sorghum: 1-3 varieties tested, timely sown, farmers participated with
researchers at sowing but not at harvesting time, varietal and fertilizer
information not shared, 25-80% fodder and 50-100% dry fodder yield
improvement, more palatable fodder, remain green after tassels harvested,
co-farmers interest high, trial repetition for seed.

Millet: 1-2 varieties tested, mostly sown in time, farmers participated with
researchers at sowing but not at harvesting time, varietal and fertilizer
information not shared, 50-100% green and 100% dry fodder yield
improvement at Kaslian only, double grain yield, more palatable fodder,
remain green after tassel harvested, co-farmers interest high, trial repetition
for seed production purposes.

Maize: 1-2 varieties tested in irrigated environment, mostly sown in time,
farmers participated with researchers at sowing but not at harvesting time,
varietal and fertilizer information shared, 35-100% higher grain yield, but
low green and dry fodder yields, stalks remain green after cobs harvest, co-
farmers interest high, no trial repetition desired.

Cowpea: Only one variety tested in the rainfed environment at only one
farm, farmer participated with researchers at sowing but not at harvesting
time, varietal and fertilizer information not shared, farmer could not
compare the performance with existing varieties as this was purely new
intervention for him, co-farmers’ interest very high, trial repetition desired
for seed production purposes.
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Pulses/Oilseeds:
Groundnut: Only one variety tested under rainfed environment, all farmers
were new, farmers were satisfied at plot sizes, farmers’ achieved partial
knowledge about variety name, and good knowledge about seed rate and
fertilizer doses, 50-100% increment in yield was witnessed along with other
good attributes. It is expected that variety tested would rapidly adopted
provided market acceptance of bold sized grains is quite high.

Mash + Fertilizer: Only 2 varieties were tested under rainfed environment,
trial was timely sown, farmer wanted bigger plot size, farmer achieved full
knowledge about variety and seed rate but no knowledge about fertilizer
doses experimented, 60% higher yield, seed multiplication and diffusion
already started, good prospects for rapid adoption.

Mungbean: 1- 3 mungbean varieties tested under rainfed conditions,
majority of the farmers participated with researchers at sowing time, no
varietal and fertilizer application while partial seed rate knowledge was
shared, all farmers harvested the crop as grain, no inclination to spread
seed at Kaslian while mixed response at Hafizabad, medium interest was
shown by farming community perhaps they are not convinced with the
intervention.

Green Manuring:
Jantar, Guar, Cowpea and Arhar: Four green manuring crops namely Guar,
Jantar, Cowpea, and Arhar were tested, farmers satisfied over the plot size
area, partial knowledge about seed rate but little knowledge about fertilizer
acquired, Jantar and Guar were better for green manuring, great variation
in wheat yield per hectare, availability of rotavator is major problem leading
to low interest of the fellow farmers, no trial repetition desired. No chances
of adoption.

Soil and Water Conservation Structures:
Soil and Water Conservation Structures: Twenty four structures reviewed,
catchment area varied 70 – 400 kanals, cost varied Rs. 1000 – 2500, the
erosion problem fully solved, farmer is willing to pay the subsidized
structure cost, lot of potential area for constructing such structures, the
benefits also achieved in terms of better yields, extent of resources saved
greatly varied.

Rangeland Development:
Acatia Modesca, Acatia Nilotica, Zyzyphus, Atriplex, Ipple Ipple: 5 species
for fodder and timber purposes tried, initial survival rate varied (50-85%),
no re-plantation during 1st and 3rd years, current survival rate also varied (5
                                                                           18
– 100%), Acatia Modesca is relatively more successful, huge potential
area available at Kaslian but little at Hafizabad, farmers’ interest high at
Kaslian and medium at Hafizabad.

Urea Mineral Molasses Mixture (UMMS):
Experiment for UMMM was conducted at Hafizabad. Only one farmer was
contacted whose four goat male kids of 2-5 months age were fed on
UMMM for one month and four other as control. One farmer reported that
his goat kids did not eat this ration so it was finally carried out with three
farmers. Farmer reported that approximately 250 gms were fed to each kid
twice a day in morning and evening. In the beginning very difficult to make
kids to eat at UMMM and farmer have to use wheat grain/flour with it.
farmer was not aware about the exact weight increase hence approximate
increase was 2 kg. No clear difference in weight gain was observed by the
farmer. The farmer was unaware about the ingredients and prices of
mixture. Regarding the breed improvement farmers perception were that
the new breed gave very good out look and could fetch higher prices
mainly at Eid-ul-Azha festival. While the weight gain and prices were
similar with the local one.


Efficiency of various irrigation methods:

Two experiments on efficiency of irrigation methods (border, basin, and
flood) for fruit plants were conducted at Hafizabad with two farmers.
Plantation was done February 2003 at one farm at 6 kanal area where 68
plants were planted. With the second farmer 102 plants were planted at 8
kanal during Sep-Oct 2003. Citrus (red blood) was planted. The initial
survival rate was nearly 83-88%. Plants and fertilizer was provided by
researchers and plantation was also done by them. All other cultural
practices and irrigation was the responsibility of farmers. Regarding the
ease in irrigation and other cultural practices including intercropping flood
irrigation method was considered best and practicable by the farmers.
Border irrigation method was also practicable for intercropping. However,
farmers were convinced that less water and time was required to irrigate
with basin then border and then flood irrigation methods. Farmers reported
that the plants at flood irrigation part were more healthy as compared to
other two places.
                                                                            19
Fruit plantation in Gullied Areas:

Different fruit plants were planted at about 60 kanal gullied area at Damal.
According to farmer information Grapfruit, sweet lime, china lemon, blood
red, falsa, peach, locat and olive (app. 70 plants of each) were planted.
Olive was planted in September 2003 while all other was planted in 2002.
The current survival rate of grapfruit, sweet lime, china lemon, blood red,
falsa, peach, locat was 100, 100, 88, 82, 100, 100 and 4 percent
respectively. Although all citrus species are successful in the area yet
farmer consider that blood red is best suited to the area with respect to
market and return and mix fruit plantation gave less returns. Summer fruits
are mostly destroyed by the birds as compared to winter fruits. Farmer
reported that wild olive is present in the area so there are chances that it
would also be successful in the area. There is no fruit plantation in the
gullied areas and it is the first experiment. All the cost of inputs and water
pump including irrigation system is provided by SAWCRI. Farmer is
satisfied with land development with fruit plantation but still consider that
bulldozers should be provided for land leveling and prefer to develop land
first with bulldozer leveling.




Rabi technologies:

Rabi Fodder:
Berseem/Lucern: Only one variety tested at all IRS sites under irrigated
environment, no varietal but little fertilizer and seed rate information shared
with the farmer, fodder yield 50% higher than the existing varieties, own
and fellow farmers’ interest very high, could not produce own seed, trial
repetition desired for seed production purposes.

Oat: One variety tested under irrigated and rainfed environments, farmers
desired bigger plot size, farmers participated at sowing time, no varietal
information but partial seed rate and fertilizer information shared, no
significant yield edge over the existing varieties but better fodder quality,
two farmers at Hafizabad tried to produce own seed, own and fellow
farmers’ interest very high, trial repetition desired for seed production
purposes.

Wheat: One variety was tested at Kaslian and the trial was failed due to
non-germination.
                                                                           20
Food Grains:
Wheat: 2-6 wheat varieties tested under irrigated and rainfed
environments, varietal and seed rate information partially shared, fertilizer
application information not shared, 25% percent higher yields observed,
some seed kept for next year plantation, Own and fellow farmers’ interest
ranging from low to medium, mixed response on the desire for trial
repetition.

Wheat+Fertilizer/Gypsum: 1-3 wheat varieties were tested mainly under
rainfed conditions, plot sizes varies a lot, farmers present at sowing time
but varietal and seed rate information occasionally shared, fertilizer
application information not shared, grain yield increment varied 0-27%,
medium to low level of personal and fellow farmers’ interest, some of the
seed was kept for next year plantation, trial repetition not desired except
one site.

Barley: One salt tolerant barley variety was tested. Farmers wished to
increase plot size, farmers present at sowing time but varietal, seed rate
and fertilizer information was least shared, low yield due to lodging, own
and fellow farmers’ interest as medium and low respectively, trial repetition
desired.

Pulses/Oilseeds:
Lentil: 1-2 lentil varieties were tested under rainfed conditions, farmers
participated at sowing time, varietal, seed rate and fertilizer doses were not
shared with the farmer, grain yields were not compared, medium own and
fellow farmers’ interest, farmers at Hafizabad made their own seed, trial
repetition not desired.
                                                                            21
      DIFFUSION OF NO-TILL DRIL IN PAKISTAN’S PUNJAB

               Muhammad Zubair Anwar, Dr. Umar Farooq,
                 Ch. Muhammad Sharif, Nadeem Akmal

Executive Summary

     Rice-Wheat is one of the important cropping systems in Pakistan’s
      Punjab. This system significantly contributes towards domestic food
      consumption and foreign exchange earnings. Unfortunately this
      system is confronting many problems but the most yield limiting
      factor is the late planting of wheat.

     To tackle the issue of late planting of wheat, zero tillage drill was
      introduced in the Rice-Wheat areas of Punjab. Initially demand and
      manufacturers of the drill were limited but with the aggressive
      extension policy of OFWM and PARC, use of zero-till drill was
      expanded very rapidly. Moreover international organizations have
      also been promoting resource conserving technologies.

     To measure the extent to which the technology has spread, as well
      as the rate at which it continue to diffuse among the partners
      (Manufacturers, Farmers), this study was planned and conducted
      Pakistan’s Punjab.


     Information on the diffusion of zero tillage drills in Punjab province,
      Pakistan was collected through a comprehensive survey of local
      agricultural machinery manufacturers. A list of 31 manufacturers
      was obtained from the On Farm Water Management (OFWM)
      Department Government Of Punjab. Presently No-Till Drills are
      manufactured at Daska, Hafizbad, Gujranwal, Lahore, Mandi
      Bahudin, Mianchanoo , Havli Lakha and Okara.

     Manufacturing of No-Till Drill is concentrated on 6 districts namely
      Sialkot, Hafizabad, Gujranwala, Lahore, Okara and Mianchanno.
      Among all these Districts, about 90 percent drills were produced at
      Daska/Sialkot, While the second larger drill producing District was
      Hafizabad. In the remaining districts drill manufacturing acativity is
      very limited.

     According to the estimates given by the manufacturers, about 2080
      drill have been produced up to the year 2003 and out of these drill,
                                                                         22
    93 percent have been sold in the different rice producing areas o
    Punjab.

   The initial source of information through which local machinery
    manufacturers in Punjab first learned about zero-tillage? The
    machinery manufacturers who participated in the survey reported
    having first heard about zero-tillage from four different information
    sources: (1) OFWM, (2) the Pakistan Agricultural Research Council
    (PARC), (3) other manufacturers, and (4) farmers.

   The machinery manufacturers who participated in the survey,
    reported having first learned about the drill design from two main
    sources: (1) PARC engineers, and (2) other manufacturers.

   After adapting the imported New Zealand zero-till drill to make it
    suitable for local conditions, PARC researchers and the private
    manufacturers with whom they were working initially promoted the
    technology on a limited scale. In the mid 1990s, the technology was
    taken up by OFWM, which thereafter played a major role in its
    promotion.

   OFWM first began organizing farmer training courses on zero-tillage
    in 1997. In the first year, about 856 farmers were trained in the use
    of ZT methods. Based on the positive response, the farmer training
    program was expanded in subsequent years. Overall more than
    30,000 farmers have been trained approximately in the respective
    Districts.

   A second strategy used by OFWM to promote zero tillage in
    Pakistan involved the use of demonstration plots. The OFWM
    demonstration plots program was launched in 1997, when 78 plots
    were established in various locations throughout the rice-wheat
    zone. The number of demonstration plots increased steadily
    thereafter until 2001.

   In the dissemination process farmers field days were also organized
    at the critical stages of the wheat crop i.e. planting, germination and
    harvesting. The purpose of the field days was to interact with
    farming community. Mainly these field days were organized at the
    fields of progressive farmers. In total, about 283 field days were
    organized.
                                                                       23
   A fourth strategy used by OFWM to promote zero tillage in
    Pakistan involved the use of distribution of printed material to
    farmers. In the fact sheets mainly use of drill and practical issues
    were addressed. Up to 2003, nearly 5,000 fact sheets and 15,000
    production guides were distributed to farmers.

   Commercial manufacturing of zero-till drills began in 1995 with the
    manufacture of two drills and in the year 1996, only 10 additional
    drills were produced. Manufacturing and sales peaked in 2002 at
    levels exceeding 500 drills. Nearly 90 percent of these drills were
    sold to farmers in the Punjab, with the remaining 10% sold to
    farmers from other Provinces.


   Average retail selling prices have increased relatively little through
    time. Second, the range of prices between the most expensive drill
    available in the market and the least expensive drill has widened
    significantly. Manufacturers indicated that the difference between
    more expensive and less expensive drills can be attributed mainly to
    differences in materials and design.

   Slightly more than one-half of all manufacturers (55%) expressed
    their intentions to make further adjustments to existing designs in
    order to improve the quality and performance of their drills, while a
    large minority (45%) said that further modifications are unnecessary
    because the drills that are currently being produced perform well in
    farmers’ fields.

   Of the 55% of manufacturers who expressed their intentions to
    modify the current design, most indicated that improvements can be
    made in the design and/or number of tines, as well as in the design
    of the straw chopper. A few manufacturers also expressed the
    desire to improve the metering system.

   Majority of the manufacturers about 90 percent had reported
    comparatively less demand of the drill as compared to the previous
    years. The major reasons quoted behind the less demand of the drill
    were i) less yield in the subsequent years, insect problem in rice
    crop and non involvement of Agri-extension department in the
    promotional activities.
                                                                        24
   In general, manufacturers are not optimistic that the demand for
    ZT drills will continue to grow in future at nearly the same rate as it
    grew in the recent past. Many have suspended their manufacturing
    activities in the face of decreasing demand and appear to have
    adopted a “wait and see” attitude. Should demand pick up again, it
    will be fairly easy for them to resume production activities, so their
    current behavior represents a rational response to an uncertain
    market environment.
                                                                              25
                            ONGOING STUDY
      ADOPTION AND IMPACT OF RCT’S IN PAKISTAN
Ch. Muhammad Sharif, Umar Farooq, Muhammad Zubair Anwar and
                      Nadeem Akmal


Summary of Field Observations:

     Majority of respondents were aware of no-till technology in the study
      area.
     Majority of no-till drill adopters were partial adopters
     Use and adoption of no-till drill is still in patches.
     Early users of no-till drill were reducing their wheat area.
     Operational problems of the drill were reported by a few farmers.
     Rent of the drill was varied. It ranged between Rs 300 to 500 per
      acre.
     Non-availability of drill on rental basis was reported by a significant
      proportion the farmers
     Wheat yield is decreasing due to continuous use of no-till drill was
      also reported by the farmers.
     In some places farmers reported more no of ploughs for rice in case
      of precursor No-Till wheat.
     Usually farmers were found less convenienced with no-till drill
      method. Main reason behind this fear was less yield due to
      compactness of soil.
     Some farmers pointed out that they have divided their fields in small
      sizes to save irrigation and time, while no-till required more quantity
      of water and time.
     The farmers who have low lying fields (Chamb) claims that due to
      crakes in the soil more irrigation water required with no-till method
      as compared to the conventional method.
     Increased pest problem in the subsequent rice field was not reported
      by the farmers
     Lack of awareness about the appropriate moisture level caused less
      yield and disadoption.
                                                                             26

   AN EXPLORATORY SURVEY REGARDING THE PULSES
   CULTIVATION IN THE RICE-WHEAT CROPPING SYSTEM
                      OF PUNJAB

 Muhammad Zubair Anwar ,Muhammad Riaz Malik, Syed Nisar Ali Shah


Executive Summary

     Traditionally pulses were cultivated in the rice producing districts of
      Punjab, but with the availability of canal and tube well water, farmers
      have changed their preferences and started to grow high value
      crops like rice, wheat , vegetables, melons and oilseed crops.
      Presently, most frequently practiced crop rotations of the area were
      “Rice-Fallow-Wheat”, “Wheat-Sorghum-Rice”, “Wheat- Melons-
      Rice”,      “Wheat-Tenda-Rice” Potato- Vegetables-Rice” and
      “Berseem-Fallow-Rice” etc. The existing cropping patterns clearly
      indicate the discontinuation of pulses cultivation in the area.

     The rice-wheat cropping system (RWCS) is highly exhaustive in
      nature and its continuous practice has resulted in low inherent soil
      fertility along with inside spaced deficiencies of macro and
      micronutrients. The problem of soil fertility and its severity increased
      very rapidly which needs immediate attention of the scientists and
      other stakeholders.

     Pulses are referred as “gold from the field” as they are the cheapest
      source of high quality protein that can help in sustaining the soil
      health and also in combating mal nutrition. These two important
      characteristics of pulses have compelled biological and social
      scientists to explore the possibilities of cultivation of spring pulses in
      the rice- wheat rotation

     Considering the importance of pulses cultivation in the rice-wheat
      system, present study was initiated in the four major rice growing
      districts namely Gujranwala, Silkot, Hafizabad and Sheikhupura.
      Keeping in view the time and resources, a sample of 150 farmers
      was decided to complete the study. Profitability, turn- around time
      and soil type parameters were mainly used to assess the possibility
      of spring pulses cultivation in the area.
                                                                       27
   Marketing is considered an important factor in the development
    activities, therefore, farmers access to market was explored in the
    survey. The market information shows that sample farmer has on an
    average 8.7 Kilometers distance from the local grain market and
    about 7.5 Kilometers from the input market. It means that almost
    every farmers have an easy access to the grain market for selling
    his produce.

   Majority of the respondents (72 %) were more than 40 years of age
    and they were holding on an average 26 years of farming
    experience. Family size was quiet higher about 9.6 persons per
    family.

   Education level of respective community is important to see the
    chances of acceptability and planning for the promotional strategy.
    In this context sample farmer’s education level was identified.
    Majority of the farmers i.e. 37.2 percent found illiterate, rest 31.6,
    23.2 and 8 percent were having 1-5, 6-10 and more than 11 years of
    schooling.

   Majority of the farmers 54.5 percent pointed out that they don’t
    know about the activities of extension department and have no
    contacts with them, while a quiet reasonable number of farmers 45.5
    percent viewed positively about agric. extension department. For
    the promotion of spring pulses, extension contacts need to be
    further enhanced     to create awareness and dissemination of
    knowledge of pulses production among the farming communities.

   As historically farmers were growing pulses in the area but since mid
    eighties pulses cultivation decreased very quickly. In the present
    study, it was tried to investigate the existing status of pulses
    growers. At present, a few farmers (11.1 %) were found as pulses
    growers, while remaining 75.2 and 13.7 percent respondents were
    disadopters and non-adopters.

   On average farmers have 24.2, 16.3 and 32.2 acres of canal
    irrigated, tube well and both canal and tube well irrigated lands
    respectively. Irrigation source wise land distribution shows that
    almost every farmer has irrigated land and they can easily allocate
    some irrigated fields for spring pulses.
                                                                         28
   Majority of the farmers (56.9 %) holds light mera loam soils and
    that is most suitable for pulses cultivation, while rest 26.6, 14.7 and
    1.8 percent of farmers were having loam, clay and sandy soils
    respectively. A large majority of the respondents (77 % ) reported
    that they have well drained soils, whereas 23 percent respondents
    were of the view that their soils are poorly drained.

   Majority of the farmers complained about the weak marketing
    infrastructure of pulses and less prices of the produce as the major
    marketing constraints. Joint efforts of market intermediaries and
    concerned departments can make real break through in spreading
    pulses cultivation in the area.

   The turn around time is an important parameter to see the possibility
    of spring pulses cultivation. Therefore, to identify the gap for growing
    spring pulses, information on the agronomic activities of wheat, rice
    and some other crops were collected. Data shows that usually
    farmers start wheat harvesting from second week of April and
    complete in the last week of April. Among the rice varieties super
    basmati and basmati-86 was predominantly grown in the area. Land
    preparation for Basmati -86 was quiet one month earlier as
    compared to the Super Basmati. So, majority of the farmers were of
    the view that the short duration spring pulses can be grown after
    timely harvesting of wheat and Planting of Super Basmati only.

    The second option was to use the vacated fields of potato and peas
    for spring pulses. But for this new venture, farmers have to sacrifice
    cultivation of spring crops like water melons and vegetable.

   Thirdly farmers can grow pulses by doing trade off between different
    crops and they should be encouraged to depute some area for
    pulses cultivation. If one farmer is planting 8 acres of wheat and
    then again planted 8 acres of rice he should be restricted to keep 2
    or 3 acres for pulses and rest 5 or 6 acres are to be brought under
    rice crop.

   Profitability analysis of all commonly practiced rotations was
    conducted. Data revealed that “Wheat- Melon-Rice” was the most
    profitable rotation. The estimated net benefit of this rotation was
    about Rs. 31,053 per acre. The second profitable rotation was
    “Wheat-Tenda-Rice”, it yielded Rs. 26,200 as net profit to farmers.
    While the most common rotation was “Wheat-Sorghum- Rice” and
    this system provides Rs. 20,365 as net benefit. Whereas, per acre
                                                                            29
       profitability of “wheat-mung- rice” sequence provides Rs. 23,312
       as net profit to the farmers

      Finally, it can be concluded that economically spring pulses are
       profitable as compared to the commonly practiced rotation, but in
       those areas where melons and vegetables were grown in the spring
       season, pulses based rotation is not economical.

       While technically it looks only feasible before Super Basmati rice
       because Super Basmati is planted in the last week of June or early
       July in the area.

The third parameter “appropriate soil type and availability of irrigation water
in the spring season”: was also found favorable for pulses cultivation in
almost all rice producing districts.
                                                                            30
IMPACT OF GLOBALIZATION OF AGRICULTURE ON THE
   PRODUCTIVITY OF COTTON - WHEAT SYSTEM OF
                   PAKISTAN
          Waqar Akhtar, Ch. Muhammad Sharif and Umar Farooq

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The study evaluates the effective incentives and resource use efficiency in
cotton-wheat production during the selected period in Pakistan; it may
provide a complete picture of policy implications in the scenario of true
globalization. This study examined this issue through effective incentives
and resource use efficiency in cotton-wheat cultivation through level of
protection using indicators namely effective rate of protection (ERP) and
domestic resource cost (DRC). The prime objective however was futuristic
i.e. to examine how this incentive and efficiency status would change with
Pakistan’s inevitable transition to a liberal economy. Main findings of the
study are as under.

Salient Findings:

      The results showed that cotton production in Sindh largely dis-
       protected or “implicitly taxed” through trade, pricing and exchange
       rate policies as compared to Punjab.
      It is evident from the results that factors of production of cotton in
       Sindh can be paid up to 29 percent more than under free trade and
       still remain competitive with imports.
      It is also evident from the estimates that the factor of production of
       cotton in Punjab can be paid up to 25 percent under free trade and
       still remain competitive with imports.
      There is thus an incentive for factors to be pulled in to the production
       of cotton in Sindh and Punjab.
      The policy implications of these results are clear: with the
       globalization of agriculture when domestic prices catch up with
       international prices the effective incentives for cotton producers
       likely to increase significantly in Sindh followed by Punjab.
      The results of effective incentives for wheat producers showed that
       producers of wheat in Sindh and Punjab also dis-protected through
       trade pricing and exchange rate policies.
                                                                       31
   It is evident form the results that the factors of production of wheat
    in Punjab and Sindh can be paid up to 47 and 42 percent more than
    under free trade and still remains competitive with international
    trade.
   The results suggest that incentives should be given to augment
    wheat production in Punjab and Sindh, because it is evident from
    the results that there is an incentive for factors to be pulled in to
    production of wheat.
   The results of economic efficiency indicate that Punjab and Sindh
    maintained a good economic efficiency in the use of resources in
    cotton production. As Punjab showed higher level of economic
    efficiency (lower RCR ratio) as compared to Sindh.
   Economic efficiency indicators indicate that in wheat production
    Punjab has slightly higher level of economic efficiency than Sindh,
   The results suggest that there is a need for productivity
    enhancement, which reduce unit cost of wheat production and make
    the crop economically viable in Punjab and Sindh.
   Overall, the results indicate that cotton and wheat growers in
    Pakistan moderately disprotected and have comparative advantage.
    In order to reap the benefit from globalization of agriculture under
    WTO regime Pakistan should give greater emphasis on production
    strategy for cotton and wheat through incentive to sustain resource
    use efficiency.
                                                                          32
       ECONOMICS OF OFF- SEASON VEGETABLES IN
                 FAISALABAD REGION.
 Nadeem Akmal, Dr. Umar Farooq, Nisar Ali Shah and Ch. Muhammad
                             Sharif

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

    When there is shortage of Vegetables or for the sake of taste we
     look forward for new ways of providing vegetables to consumers. To
     provide year- round supply of certain, it is important to find different
     growing methods, such as off-season vegetable growing. Their
     availability is highly welcomed when the supply is hardly enough to
     meet market requirements. On the other hand these vegetables are
     also known as high value crops. Vegetable crops have always been
     held in high esteem due to their special attributes: high cash value,
     more productivity, high quality food, better employment opportunities
     Vegetables growing help in increasing the income of the farmers
     substantially. This study was undertaken in Faisalabad region to
     describe off-season vegetables production practices, identify
     constraints in vegetable production, and to estimate cost and
     revenue of the selected off- season vegetables.
    Nineteen farmers involved in off-season vegetable production were
     interviewed. Majority of the sampled farmers were growing Tomato,
     Cucumber and Sweet Pepper.
    The surveys revealed that majority of the farmers 64 percent were
     intermediate and graduate while 21 percent were postgraduates.
     Out of the total 15 percent were matric. There was no farmer having
     education less than matric.
    The survey revealed that overall average owned area was 76.44
     acres area rented in was 33 acres, on overall basis the total
     operational area per farm was 101.17 acres. The rented out area
     was 8.28 acres.
    .The area under wheat, off-season vegetables,rabi season
     vegetables,potato,Zaid rabi maize was 21.06,13.67,3.24,36.94 and
     12.6 acres respectively. Farmers were also growing sugarcane,
     sunflower rabi fodder and fruits.
    In kharif season the area under cotton, Rice,kharif vegetables,
     muskmelon was 10.28,45.78,3.92 and1.39 acres respectively. Some
                                                                       33
    of the farmers were also growing fruits and green manuring crops
    to increase soil fertility for off-season vegetables.
   The survey results showed that more than 50 percent of the farmers
    had the facility of both canal and tube well water facility. Nearly 37
    percent farmers had the tube well only source of irrigation and
    remaining 5 percent were irrigating the farm only with canal water.
    Majority of the farmers had clay loam soil type followed by loam.
   Easy access to the concerned destinations of farm business
    increases the efficiency of the business. Average distance from farm
    to metalled road, local market, fertilizer shop, pesticide shop and
    extension office was1.24, 11.21,9.49,9.76 and 10.22 kilometers
    respectively.
   The off-season vegetable growers were using improved implements.
    Many farmers had more than one improved implements according to
    their land holdings.
   The area under off-season vegetables for tomato, cucumber and
    sweet pepper was 5.49,4.17 and 2.16 acres respectively. It was
    observed that all the farmers were not growing all three types of off-
    season vegetables.
   Land preparation cost of selected off-season vegetables on per acre
    basis was highest in case of Cucumber (Rs. 1732) followed by
    Tomato and Sweet Pepper, Rs1693 and 1583 respectively. Ridge
    making cost on per acre basis was highest in case of Tomato (Rs.
    509) and lowest in case of cucumber (Rs. 373). The ridge making
    cost of Sweet Pepper was Rs 437.
   The nursery raising cost for one acre of Tomato and Sweet Pepper
    was Rs. 1035 and Rs. 1187 respectively.
   The average cost of seed on per acre basis for Tomato, Cucumber
    and Sweet Pepper was Rs.13807, Rs.23853 and Rs.13947
    respectively.
   FYM cost on per acre basis was highest in case of Tomato
    (Rs.2889), and less in case of Sweet Pepper (Rs.2315) .The FYM
    cost for Cucumber was Rs. 2459. It was also observed that 80
    percent sample farmers were applying FYM.
   The use of chemical fertilizers among the farmers producing off–
    season vegetables was high. Cost on per acre basis was
    highest in case of Tomato Rs.11767 followed by Cucumber and
    Sweet Pepper.
                                                                      34
   The canal water charges in the form of Abiana were Rs.100 on
    per acre basis. The cost of tube well water was calculated at
    Rs.2940, Rs.2772 and Rs.2100 for Tomato, Cucumber and Sweet
    Pepper respectively.
   . Plant protection cost on per acre basis was highest in case of
    Cucumber (Rs.6864), followed by Tomato Rs.6711
   For Tomato and Cucumber both types of tunnels are made but for
    the Sweet Pepper farmers mostly develop low types of tunnels. The
    average structure cost for both types of tunnel for the Tomato and
    Cucumber was calculated Rs. 41323and Rs.41997 on per year per
    acre basis. The tunnel cost for Sweet Pepper was Rs. 28700 on per
    year per acre basis. The tunnel cost of Sweet Pepper was less
    because almost all the farmers were growing vegetables in low
    tunnels.
   For the Tomato and Cucumber wooden crates are mostly used for
    packing. The packing cost of tomato was rupees 42509 followed by
    cucumber rupees 31142 and sweet pepper rupees 5353 per acre.
   . The highest picking and packaging (labor) cost was calculated
    incase Cucumber (Rs.10850) followed by Tomato and Sweet
    Pepper.
   The transportation cost of the out was calculated and it was highest
    in case of tomato followed by cucumber and sweet pepper. The
    transportation cost was to the tune of Rs. 33535 per acre for tomato,
    Rs. 24017 per acre for cucumber and Rs. 10277 per acre in case of
    sweet pepper.
   There was much difference of yield among the farmers whether it
    was due to management practices or any other factor. Average yield
    of selected off-season vegetables (viz. Tomato, Cucumber, and for
    Sweet Pepper) was calculated as 31488 kg, 24017kg, 8921 kg per
    acre, respectively.
   Gross income of the selected vegetables viz. Tomato, Cucumber,
    and for Sweet Pepper was calculated as Rs.247180, Rs.251284,
    Rs. 150497per acre respectively. Net income including land rent
    was higher for cucumber (Rs.74416) while the lower (Rs.47428) per
    acre in case of Sweet Pepper estimated
   Insects, pest, diseases, high seed cost, low price of the produce,
    transportation costs and availability and credit availability on more
    interest rate were the constraints reported by the farmers.
                                                                           35


      ESTIMATION OF DEMAND FOR MILK IN PAKISTAN
                 Muhammad Azam Niazi and Umar Farooq

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

    During the period 6000-8000 BC, man learned to domesticate species
    of animals for milk production and preservation of the produce followed
    later. Dairy production was more of an art than science and remained
    so until recently when this art finally gave way to science. Dairy science
    is one of the advanced sciences today.

   Pakistan can be classified as a nation of milk drinkers by nature.
    Pakistan is the fourth largest producer of milk in the world and when it
    comes to per capita production the position improves to third place in
    the world. With about 28 million tones of milk produced every year it is
    worth mentioning that five percent of the milk goes as wastage.


   The market value of total livestock and dairy production was Rs. 362
    billion (2001) of which the share of milk was 58 percent. It is said that
    livestock are raised primarily for milk while beef and hide are only the
    by products.

   To devise an effective livestock policy it is imperative to know the
    demand for the most valuable livestock product, milk, and quantification
    of the factors that affect this demand. This study was initiated to
    generate this vital information.

   The present study was designed to achieve the following objectives: 1)
    Estimate the demand for milk in Pakistan 2) Study the trends in
    Pakistan’s milk Production 1982-2001. 3) Study trends in milk prices
    during 1982-2001. 4) Suggest policy measures.

   The demand for milk was estimated using the Ordinary Least Squares
    (OLS) regression technique . After testing various models the double
    log model was finally selected .

   The milk demand model showed that the milk demand elasticities for
    the milk price, price of tea an income were 1.646, 0.391 and 1.894
    respectively .These elasticity values showed that the main contributors
                                                                              36
    towards determination of demand for milk .The real prices of milk
    stagnated over the period under study , while the nominal prices
    soared. The per capita milk availability grew at an average annual rate
    of 2.8 percent which is quite encouraging.

   The per capita consumption of milk ranks Pakistan as the world’s third
    highest milk consuming country. The per capita consumption has been
    consistently rising since 1982 , but during the last five years stagnation
    in growth was witnessed.

   The real prices during the last twenty years remained almost the same (
    +/- 30 paisas per liter)while the nominal prices rose consistently.

   To increase the demand for milk for improving per capita consumption
    the price of milk and the income that showed the highest elasticity
    values, need to be altered without interfering with the market forces.
    The price can possibly be lowered by reducing the cost of production
    ceteris paribus.

   The limited possibility to increase the fodder production due to
    competition with the food crops asks for increased availability of low
    cost ,high value animal feed.


   Milk prices are being managed through adulteration. Lower cost milk
    production technologies including high yielding animals need to be
    researched into for encouraging increased production .

   Farmers need to be provided with the latest technical packages for
    economical milk production.

   More efficient fodder varieties and production packages should reach
    the farmers.

   As five percent of the total milk production is wasted , it is suggested
    that the use of refrigerated trucks should be encouraged while the
    possibility of introduction of very small scale pasteurization plants in the
    rural areas need to be explored.
                                                                         37
EXPORT OF CITRUS: CONSTRAINTS AND POTENTIAL
     Ch. Muhammad Sharif , Nadeem Akmal and Umar Farooq

   Citrus is the largest produced and exported fruit in Pakistan. The
    Punjab province contributes about 95% in total area and production.
    Kinnow is the largest exported fruit in citrus family. Internationally,
    Pakistan produces about 8 percent of the world’s
   Citrus production, while her share in international citrus trade is only
    0.5 percent. Far East, Middle East, Europe and Central Asia’s
    States of former USSR are major markets of our citrus fruit. The
    government of Pakistan not only keen to expand the export of
    conventional agricultural commodities, but also diversify their
    spectrum.
    The upcoming WTO related concerns have also posed numerous
    challenges as well as opportunities to our agriculture sector.
    Pakistan has to prepare herself to meet challenges and avail the
    opportunities in all sub-sectors of agriculture in the globalization
    scenario.
   Increased production of international quality fruit is the key for
    promoting the export of horticultural crops. However, our producers
    are constrained by lack of incentives received from exporters or
    contractors to improve the quality of their produce. There is also lack
    of high-tech guidance from extension department. From fresh
    Kinnow processors’ perspective, most of the plants are locally
    manufactured and only meant for processing mandarin.

   The suppliers/ contractors do not undertake proper grading before
    supplying their produce to the factories. Thus after grading a
    significant quantity was again to be channelized back into domestic
    market, which adds costs and delays processing. Most of the citrus
    exporters in the area were previously engaged in domestic fruit
    marketing.

    Their volume of business is so small that they resort to competition
    among themselves and most of them are operating in the near
    distance or neighboring countries’ markets. Many inputs like good
    quality wax and other packing materials are also not easily available
    locally.
                                                                         38
    Government policies towards promotion of citrus export are
    inconsistent and irregular. From institutional perspective, there is
    lack of marketing intelligence, weak monitoring of product quality,
    and undue delays in custom clearance and money transfer etc.
    Linkages between horticultural research, extension and citrus
    exporters are also weak.It has been observed that WTO
    requirements are generally not constraint rather these can become
    opportunities provided all the necessary institutional infrastructure is
    established.

    If Pakistani products earn good name in the international market,
    then such barriers shall not affect our exports. Initially, the
    preparatory costs of compliance with Sanitary and Phytosanitary
    (SPS) measures will be very high, but once such agencies
    established, the future benefits would be much higher.
                                                                        39
        FACTORS AFFECTING LOW WHEAT YIELD IN
               CENTRAL PUNJAB, 2002-03
 Muhammad Sharif, Hassnain Shah, Nisar Ali Shah and Nadeem Akmal

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

   During the current Rabi season (2002-03) our country has
    experienced a decreased wheat production especially in the irrigated
    areas. Management of Pakistan Agricultural Research Council
    (PARC) considered it imperative to carry out an in-depth empirical
    study to figure out the real factors that contributed towards low wheat
    production during 2002-03.
   The results of the study were anticipated to provide basis for devising
    strategy to sustain future wheat production.
   The Social Sciences Institute (SSI) of NARC launched a
    comprehensive study to assess the wheat performance in two districts
    of the Punjab, namely Sargodha and T.T. Singh covering the mixed
    cropping zone of the province.
   A random sample of 42 respondents from irrigated T.T.Singh, and 40
    from irrigated Sorgodha districts of Punjab province was drawn to
    conduct national wheat survey.
   Majority of the sample farmers (91 %) were owner operators and the
    remaining were owner cum tenant.
   About 85 percent of the farmers had installed their own Tube wells.
    Land rent was nearly 5000 per acre. On an average six cultivations
    were done for wheat sowing while cost per acre for each ploughing
    was estimated rupees 151.
   Area allocation to wheat during current year was increased in the
    mixed zones of Punjab. In mixed cropping systems of Punjab increase
    in wheat acreage was about 4.29 percent.
   Major reasons for change in wheat areas reported by sample farmers
    ranked substitution of sugarcane for wheat, more production last year,
    better water supply both from canal and supplementary irrigation from
    tube wells and substitution of fodder for wheat.
   Inqlab 91 was the dominant variety in Sargodha and Wattan in T.T.
    Singh. Uqaab 2000 and Bhakkar 2002 replaced the Pasban and Pak
    81 varieties. Inqlab 91 was the major variety grown on 61 percent area
    followed by Wattan which was planted on 29 percent area during
    2002-03.
   It was found that fellow farmers and seed dealers were the main
    source to get the seed of new variety as 40 percent farmers reported
                                                                       40
    seed dealer and the same percentage of farmers reported fellow
    farmers as the main source of seed replacement.
   It is clear from the survey results that farmers were using almost the
    recommended seed rate and very little difference of one kg in seed
    rate was found from the previous year as the seed rate during 2001-02
    was 51 kg per acre while it increased to 52 kg per acre.
   The area under line sowing decreased from 34 percent to 29 percent.
    However, the decrease in area under line sowing was statistically non
    significant.
   Per acre use of phosphatic nutrients increased from 26.72 to 29.24 kg
    nutrients and nitrogen fertilizer increased from 47.70 to 51.91 kg
    nutrients per acre in the mixed zone of the Punjab.
                                                                         41

   Overall on 54 percent area weed infestation was controlled through
    weedicide and about 1% more weed infested wheat acreage was
    covered through chemical weed control measures during 2002-03 in
    the mixed zone of the Punjab.
   On an over all basis the number of irrigation applied in the mix
    cropping zone of the Punjab were little less (4.2 irrigations) than the
    previous year (4.4 irrigations). Farmers also reported the canal closure
    at the time of last irrigation and also some farmers did not applied the
    last irrigation due to some rain at the last stage.
   The overall decrease in area was 11.34 percent in mixed zone of the
    Punjab.
   in the mixed zone of the Punjab the minimum yield decreased from
    34.32 maunds to 30.03 maunds while the maximum yield limit
    decreased from 41.20 to 39.15 maunds per acre.
   The rainfall situation during rabi 2002-03 was relatively much better
    than the previous drought years as 94 percent farmers reported that
    the contribution of rainfall towards the irrigation requirement was
    satisfactory while the remaining 6 percent farmers reported that it was
    partly satisfactory.
   it was found that purchase centers and the village beoparies were the
    main agencies involved in wheat marketing as 30 percent of the wheat
    produced was sold at purchase centers and 16 percent to village
    beoparies while only 3, 2 and 2 percent of the total production was
    sold to village consumer, arthies and flour mills respectively.
   The price received from the purchase center were the same as
    support price while little higher prices (Rs. 304 per md)) than the
    support prices were reported from flour mills in district Sargodha. The
    price paid by the village consumer and arthi were rupees 292 per 40
    kg. The price paid by the village beopari were Rs. 292 in T.T. Singh
    and Rs. 270 per 40 kg in Sargodha. Overall the price received to the
    farmers from village beopari was less than all other agencies.
   The expected yield before harvesting for the year 2002-03 was much
    higher than the actual wheat yield. Farmers were expecting more than
    50 maunds per acre in the mixed cropping zone of the Punjab.
   According to farmers’ perceptions aphid was the main cause of
    decrease in wheat yield in T. T. Singh as 44 percent farmers reported
    it as the major reason for decrease in production.
   Lodging was the main cause reported by 41 percent farmers in
    Sargodha as given in Table 22.
   One of the other main reason reported by the farmers was a
    misconception of the farmers due to some rains at maturity stage (at
    last irrigation time) due to which farmers did not applied the last
                                                                        42
    irrigation and there was some moisture stress at the grain formation
    stage.
   Along with it the sudden rise in temperature at grain formation stage
    also affected the production negatively.
   Unfavorable climatic conditions such as fog and mist also affected the
    production of wheat. Farmers are using the tube well water
    injudiciously and due to continuous use of poor quality tube well water
    it has also affected the production overtime.
                       43




BIOMETRICS PROGRAMME
      SSI, NARC
                                                                         44
FORECASTING MODELS FOR SUGARCANE IN PAKISTAN
           M. Asif Masood Ghumman and Malik Anver Javed


Executive Summary


     The present study was based on time series data for the period from
      1975-76 to 2001-2002. The data were collected from various
      secondary sources to formulate sugarcane area and yield models
      for three provinces and Pakistan.
     The regression (Ordinary Least Squares) technique was employed
      for sugarcane area and yield forecast models. The linear regression
      model is an econometric model. An econometric model is a system
      of one or more equations that describe the relationship among
      several economic and time series variables.
     Two separate models were developed for forecasting of sugarcane
      area and yield, while production was estimated simply by multiplying
      area with yield forecasts. Four equations were estimated for
      sugarcane area for Pakistan and three provinces and one for
      sugarcane yield for Pakistan.
     For the selection of model variables each independent variable was
      plotted against dependent variable and their behavior was studied.
      The variables, which had linear relationship, were kept while the
      others were dropped. The multicollinearity problem in the
      explanatory variables was studied with the help of correlation matrix.
     After the statistical exercises and careful consideration of logical
      relationship of the variables a set of variables was selected. The
      explanatory variables included in the sugarcane area models were
      area under sugarcane lagged by one year and sugarcane
      procurement price. The variables used in the yield model were
      sugarcane yield as dependent variables whereas fertilizer
      consumption per kgs/ha and water availability at farm gate during
      the crop growth period.
     Two criteria were used to evaluate the forecast performance of each
      of the above mentioned models. The first criterion used could
      measure actual forecast error but for the previous years for which
      data are available. The second criterion provided measurements of
      the model fit to the data available at a particular period of time.
                                                                        45
   Forecasted area for 2002-03 was only 1.81 and 4.90 percent
    higher than the official estimates of Punjab and NWFP respectively.
    In 2003-04, forecast was 4.80 and 2.90 percent higher for the
    Punjab and NWFP respectively whereas it was 1.16 and 0.40
    percent lower for Sindh in 2002-03 and 2003-04 respectively.
   The National sugarcane area forecast for 2002-03 was 5.09 percent
    higher than the official estimates. The forecasted sugarcane area of
    Pakistan for 2002-03 and 2003-04 were 5.09 and 4.15 percent
    higher than the official estimates. The results revealed that the
    percent change for sugarcane area models for National as well as
    Provincial was found within 5 percent range.
   The performance of sugarcane yield forecast model is given in table
    6. When compared with official estimates of 45.40 tons per hectare
    yield in 2000-01; forecasted yield was only 1.23 percent higher than
    the official estimate and 3.47 percent lower than the official estimate
    of 2001-02 whereas 2.76 percent lower than official target of 2002-
    03.
   Production of sugarcane was also forecasted by multiplying
    forecasted area with the forecasted yield of respective years. The
    performance was tested by comparing the forecasted production
    with the official estimates of the corresponding years. Comparing
    with the official estimate for the year 2001-02, the forecasted
    estimate was only 0.02 percent higher, while comparing the results
    of 2002-03, it was noticed that forecasted production was 5.11
    percent higher than the official estimate.
   The results reflect that the performance of area and yield forecast
    model was acceptable as the margin of difference from the actual
    and forecasts over the model development period were not too
    much. Sugarcane area and yield forecast models are very efficient
    and can be used to predict future area and yield estimates with
    reasonable level of accuracy a couple of months before sowing and
    harvesting of sugarcane crop. By that time, secondary source data
    on all the used explanatory variables become available.
                                                                              46
  GROWTH, PRICE INSTABILITY AND FLEXIBILITY OF
           MAJOR CROPS IN PAKISTAN
             Malik Anver Javed* and Ch. Muhammad Sharif *


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY


     Many attempts have been made but little work done to study the
      instabilities in prices to identify riskiness of selected crops in relation
      to other crops. In this study the changes in prices of selected crops
      have been analysed along with the growth of area, production and
      yield.
     In this paper the degree of instabilities in prices has been measured
      and tried to identify the risky crops to help the farmers to allocate
      their limited resources in more profitable crops, which are less risky.
     The analysis of price flexibility will help the farmers to understand
      the extent of seasonality in prices.
     The crops which have been selected for this study are wheat, rice,
      sugarcane and cotton. In the analysis of the study procurement
      prices of selected crops have been used. The period selected for
      study is from 1980-81 to 2001-02 (22 years), as the recent data
      available. The data used in the study has been collected from the
      secondary sources.
     Average annual compound growth rates have been computed to see
      the increase or decrease in the prices, area, production and yield of
      selected crops.
     The inter year fluctuation in prices was estimated by using annual
      fluctuation estimation method.
     The price flexibility method was used to see the effect of production
      of a crop on its price while cross price flexibility was estimated to
      study the substitution effect of the production of a crop on the other
      crop.
     All the growth rates of selected crops (Wheat, Rice, Sugarcane,
      Cotton) have shown increasing trends. T-ratio of all the growth rates
      is highly significant at one percent level.
     Price instability was the highest than that of area, production and
      yield in case of all the crops. In case of price, instability was the
                                                                       47
    highest for sugarcane, in area for cotton, and in yield and
    production again for sugarcane.
   The price flexibility analysis revealed that the relation of price and
    production of wheat, rice and sugarcane is negative while of cotton,
    it is positive.
   These co-efficients show that the increase in the production of
    wheat has deep influence on the price of rice. Cotton is the only crop
    in which the supply effect on its price is positive.
   The policy measures taken may not be only for a single crop in the
    crop sub sector.
                                   48

GENDER AND DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME
             SSI, NARC
                                                                        49

    ROLE OF MICRO-CREDIT IN GENDER EMPOWERMENT
    Nadeem Akmal, Sajida Taj, Hassnain Shah , Umar Farooq and Abdul
                                 Majid

     The major objective of this exercise was to examine the effect of
      micro-credit in gender empowerment and identifying appropriate
      strategies to increase the gender specific role in income generation
      for poverty alleviation.
     The micro-credit was obtained for buying animals to increase herd
      size, financing agricultural inputs and expanding non-farm business.
      The credit limit was Rs. 10,000 for livestock, Rs. 30,000 for
      business purposes while for financing agricultural inputs, the limit
      was Rs. 5000 only.
     The sample was composed of 67 livestock farmers (25 males & 42
      females), 43 crop farming (32 males & 11 females), and 46 non-
      farm business (28 males & 18 females).
     Agriculture was the main source of income in the households taking
      credit for livestock farming and financing agricultural inputs. Non-
      farm business, agricultural business, and agricultural labor were the
      major sources of household income in families taking credit for
      business purposes.
Credit for Livestock Farming:
     Overall, an increase of 1.3 animal units per credit taking household
      was taken place. The percent change in the herd size in terms of
      animal units and animal heads was observed among female
      beneficiaries when compared with their counterpart. The number of
      buffaloes added to the herd was higher on female credit beneficiary
      farms as compared to male credit beneficiary. The underlying
      reason may be that females want to expand their household income
      by increasing the sale of milk.
     Majority of the both male (60%) and female (69%) respondents
      purchased milk animals with credit money.
     The livestock management hours were increased on both male and
      female beneficiaries’ farms. However, the relative increase in hours
      was more on the female beneficiaries’ farms as compared with their
      counterpart. The underlying reason is that the number of livestock
      increase was also high on female beneficiaries’ farms compared to
      the male beneficiaries’ livestock farms.
     The gross benefits per animal were to the tune of Rs. 21774 for
      buffalo, Rs. 5014 for cow, Rs. 7000 for Young Stock and Rs. 2745
                                                                          50
       for goats. However the returns after deducting only cash costs
       were Rs. 12233, Rs. 6691, Rs. 4660 and Rs. 2430 for buffalo, cow,
       young stock and goats respectively.
     Among food items, the consumption of wheat, meat, milk, eggs,
       ghee, vegetables, fruits, sugar, spices and confectionary products
       were found increased in nearly 25 percent of credit takers for
       livestock farming.
     Among non-food items, the expenditures on clothes,
       ceremonies/marriages, household durables, medical care, children
       education and utility bills were also increased in 13 – 22 percent
       households.
Credit for Financing Agricultural Inputs:
     Since the credit was crop specific, therefore, largest increase in crop
       area was recorded for peas (44%), followed by maize (25%) and
       groundnuts (19%).
     The cash purchasing of inputs such as fertilizer was increased from
       80% to 100%.
     Instead using own seed, majority of the credit takers started using
       seed purchased from input dealers.
     An improvement in the per hectare yield of 22% in wheat, 15% in
       groundnut, 24% in peas, 23% in potato was observed.
     No significant change in the consumption of food and non-food
       items was observed.
Credit for Enterprise Development:
     The males obtained this credit for expanding the present business
       while majority of females took credit to start new business.
     Relatively higher proportion of respondents was belonging to
       business and business-cum-farming class.
     The types of new businesses started by male respondents were
       retail/grocery shop, poultry farm. The female respondents have
       started new businesses in the form of retail/grocery shop, poultry
       farm and vocational schools.
Concluding Remarks
     The credit has certainly brought changes in the type of enterprise for
       which the credit was obtained. For instance, increase in the herd
       size of livestock farming households, increase in the area under
       crop for which credit was obtained, more use of certified seed,
       shifting from buying inputs on credit to cash payment basis, and
       some new avenues in the off-farm business were also observed. On
       the other hand, some changes in the consumption patterns of food
       and non-food items can also be observed particularly those
       obtaining credit for livestock farming and inputs financing purposes.
                                                                 51
It can be concluded that the micro-credit scheme can bring
catalytic changes in the poor sections of the rural areas. Much more
could be achieved provided some technical guidance is also
attached with it.
                                                                        52
    ROLE OF DUGWELLS IN GENDER PROSPERITY IN
                 RAINFED AREAS
Sajida Taj, Nadeem Akmal, Hassnain Shah, Nisar Ali Shah and Abdul
                             Majid

    Use of underground water from dugwells lessens the dependence
     on rains and increases control of irrigation. Introduction of dugwells
     can bring major changes in the farming system of rainfed areas. The
     present study analyses the role of dugwells in gender prosperity in
     the rainfed areas of pothwar, Punjab.
    The major objective was to quantify the impact of dugwells on the
     cropping patterns of the sample farms, income generation activities
     of male and female members of the household, and change in the
     workload of the family females.
    Due to shift from rainfed to dugwell-irrigation, many changes were
     recorded;
    Cropping intensity on rainfed patches fell down from 97% to 82%.
    On dugwell irrigated patches, cropping intensity was increased from
     97% to 138%.
    High value crops like vegetables were also incorporated in the
     cropping pattern although its proportion is very small.
    Per hectare net returns from crops like wheat, maize, fodders etc.
     were also increased significantly.
    Wheat and maize are still the major crops planted on dugwell
     irrigated lands.
    Besides this the value of land shifted from rainfed to dugwell-
     irrigated was also doubled.
    The following changes in the gender specific farm activities were
     noticed:
    The contribution of female labor in maize, fodder and vegetable
     crops was increased. Female working hours in crop production
     activities were increased by one hour/day. Therefore, female labour
     employment opportunities could be easily perceived.
    At village level, women also selling vegetables to earn income,
     which also enhances their economic empowerment.
                                                                             53
       The increased availability of the fodder at short distance also
        decreased female time for fodder transport. This also saved male
        time for livestock grazing which has shifted to crop farming activities.
       It is suggested that more and more credit may be advanced to
        increase irrigation water availability for enhancing rural household
        income and making rural females more empowered and productive.
        The farmers of the arid area in general and women in particular
        have little/no experience of growing high value crops therefore, their
        training in growing high value crops recommended.



RESEARCH ARTICLES PUBLISHED

S.No. Author               Title                         Journal
   1. Ch.M. Sharif ,       Gender Dimensions in          Proceeding of FAO
      Umar Farooq          Asian Rice Livelihood         Workshop,Regional
      and Waqar            Systems in Changing           Office Thailand,
      Malik                Milieu of Technologies        March 2004.
                           and Economy”
   2.    Asif Masood       Forecasting Model of          , J. of Statistics,
         Ghumman and       Wheat Crop for Pakistan       Govt.College
         Malik Anwar                                     University LHR,June,
         Jawed                                           2004

   3.    Malik Anwar       Variability in Field          Pak. J. of Agricultural
         Jawed and         Experiments in Maize          Sciences of UAF
         Asif Masood       Crop in Pakistan              Volume (3-4) 2003
         Ghumman                                         ISSN 0552-9034

   4.    Asif Masood                                     Pak. J. Botany.,
                           Incidence of Bacterial
         Ghumman(Co-                                     35(5): 993-997, 2003
                           Blight of Rice in Pakistan
         author)           during 2002

   5.    Asif Masood       Forecasting Model of          J. of Statistics,
         Ghumman           Wheat Crop for Pakistan       Govt.College
                                                         University
                                                         LHR.Vol.21,Feb.2004
   6.    Dr. Umar          “Gender Dimensions in         Proceeding of FAO
         Farooq            Asian Rice Livelihood         Workshop,Regional
                           Systems in Changing           Office Thailand,
                                                                       54
                       Milieu of Technologies      March 2004
                       and Economy”
  7.   A.M. Haqqani    Present Scenario,           J. Science,
       and M.Riaz      Constraints and             Technology &
       Malik           Improvement Strategies      Development. 23(1).
                       for Mungbean
                       Production in Pakistan.
  8.   Sajida Taj      Assessment of rural and     Pakistan journal of
                       urban women’s               life and social
                       participation in the        sciences, Vol. 2, No.
                       decision making in family   1, 2004
                       matters.



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  4.   Nisar Ali      Wild Olive in Highlands of            The News
       Shah           Balochistan
  5.   Nisar Ali      Potential of Tobacco Production in    The News
       Shah           Balochistan
  6.   Nisar Ali      Raisins Production in Balochistan     The News
       Shah
  7.   Asif Masood    PARC Develops Wheat Production        The News
       Ghumman,       Forecast Model
       Malik Anwer
       Jawed
  8.   Asif Masood    Policy-Making Supported by Wheat      CGPRT
       Ghumman,       Forecasting Model in Pakistan         Flash
       Malik Anwer
       Jawed
  9.   M.Zubair                                             The News
                      Cost Effective and Resource
       Anwar          Conserving Wheat Production
                                                                             55
                        Technologies
   10. M.Zubair         New Rice Production Technologies          The News
       Anwar
   11. Nadeem           Vegetables Production in AJ&K             The News
       Akmal


FORTNIGHTLY SEMINARS

The scientists of SSI delivered 20 seminars to present the findings of their
empirical research. The main purpose of such seminars is to share the
research findings with the diverse group of scientists. The seminars were
organized on the following titles:


   1. Income Inequalities and Determinants of Poverty in the Rainfed
      Pothwar
   2. Impact of Government Expenditure on Agriculture and Performance
      of Agricultural Sector in Pakistan
   3. Comparison of Different Methods of Evaluating Genotypes in
      National Uniformity Wheat Yield Trials in Pakistan (2000-01)
   4. Gender Dimensions and Role of Women in Agriculture

   5. A Comparative Study of Water Distribution Systems and Productivity
      Issues on Private and Public Dams in Pothwar

   6. Economics of Land Levelling Under Rainfed Condition of Pothwar

   7. Gender Role in Livestock Management in Sindh

   8. Perception of Gender Dynamism in Rainfed Agriculture
   9. Growth, Price Instability and Flexibility of Major Crops in Pakistan
   10. Impact of Globalization on Rice-Wheat Farming System of Pakistan
   11. Factors Affecting Citrus Production in Pakistan’s Punjab
   12. Export of Citrus: Potential and Constraints
   13. Diffusion of No-Till Drill at Manufacturers’ level in the Punjab
       Pakistan
                                                                          56
   14. Role of Women in Dry Fruit Business in Northern Areas of
       Pakistan
   15. On-going Assessment and Crops and Livestock Production
       Technologies at Integrated Research Sites of Barani Village
       Development Project 2002-03
   16. Economic Incentives and Comparative Advantages in Rice Wheat
       Crop Production in Pakistani Punjab
   17. Wheat Forecasting Model for Pakistan
   18. Combating Micronutrient Deficiency in Pakistan by Increased
       Vegetable Use
   19. Livestock Marketing System in Pakistan
   20. Estimation of Demand for Milk in Pakistan


TRAINING PROGRAMS OFFERED

Statistical Methods for Data Analysis in Agricultural Research
The major focus of the training was to impart training on the techniques of
economics analysis of experimental data, factorial experiments,
multivariate analysis and correlation and regression analysis.

INTERNSHIP
Under internship programme four students of B.Sc (Hons) Agri. Economics
from University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, were provided internship training
for 10 weeks. Each student was assigned a separate research study on
different topics of national interest covering economics of citrus production
and export , microdredit.


STATISTICAL CONSULTATION AND SOFTWARE ASSISTANCE
Biometrics Programme of SSI has provided statistical consultation (90) and
software assistance (30) to agricultural/biological scientists from NARC,
University of Arid Agriculture, Rawalpindi and Quaid-I-Azam University,
Islamabad.

								
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