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Vulnerable Localities Index in Wigan by LondonGlobal

VIEWS: 34 PAGES: 20

									  Priority Neighbourhoods and the
Vulnerable Localities Index in Wigan

                      Ian Bullen
     Strategic Analytical Partnership Co-ordinator
                  About the VLI
• Developed by Centrex and JDI (UCL)
• Designed to be simple yet robust
• Uses 6 “easy to obtain” data sets to point a
  “suggestive finger”
  –   Burglary in a dwelling
  –   Criminal Damage in a dwelling
  –   Income Deprivation
  –   Employment Deprivation
  –   Educational Attainment
  –   Young People (Aged 15-24)
    Adding Data to the Picture – The Alt. VLI

•   Violence in a domestic setting (GMP Data)
•   Probation client count (GMAC Datahub)
•   Health Deprivation score (IMD 2004)
•   Lone Parents with Dependent Children (Census 2001)
•   GMFS Incidents (GMAC Datahub)
•   Drug Users Count (SMS Postcodes)
                                 Comparing the Indices
          700.000000000000




          600.000000000000


                                                                                  Correlations
          500.000000000000
                                                                                                       October
                                                                                             ALT VLI 04 VLI
          400.000000000000                                    ALT VLI      Pearson Correlati       1      .764**
ALT VLI




                                                                           Sig. (2-tailed)                .000
                                                                           N                   1011      1011
          300.000000000000                                    October 04 V Pearson Correlati    .764**       1
                                                                           Sig. (2-tailed)      .000
                                                                           N                   1011      1011
          200.000000000000
                                                                **. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-taile

          100.000000000000




            0.000000000000


                             0   100           200      300
                                       October 04 VLI
Adding Data to the Picture – The Alt. VLI
The Combined VLI & Alt.VLI
             Super Output Areas

•   Happy with methodology but…
•   What’s between the gaps?
•   Broader look at Wigan to aid understanding
•   OAs too small? NRF based on SOAs.
•   SOAs – c.500 households (1500 people)
•   VLI > 150, Alt VLI > 200
•   Identified 32 SOAs
                     Top 32 Most Vulnerable SOAs

                                                 Any areas with higher
                                                 crime rate than Top 32
                                                 average?




Crime rate dropping year on year
from 2003 to 2006
but Top 32 retained a larger
proportion of all crime, i.e. the gap widened.
Top 32 Most Vulnerable SOAs plus SOAs with BCS10
    Crime Rate/1000 higher than Top 32 Average
      Top 32 Most Vulnerable SOAs plus SOAs with BCS10
     Crime Rate/1000 higher than or close to Top 32 Average
Street Lighting
Targeted drugs outreach
Targeted offenders work
Cleaner/Greener indicators
Literacy Capacity
Alleygating
Progress to Work
Family Support
Capable Guardianship
Income
GeneralHousehold Security
Visible Housing
Health
Household Decency
Patrols Wigan’s
Half of
BCS10 Crimes occur
amongst just a quarter
of the population
Using the VLI to Aid Understanding of
            Local Issues
                    VLI in Leigh
Leigh Town Centre
  Problem Profile         Priority Neighbourhood
                              on the outskirts



                             Peak Hotspot between
                             CrimeDay for offences
                             Wednesday = Script Day
                                  -Wednesday-
                             Priority Neighbourhood
                             High acquisitive crime levels
                                       and
                                   Town Centre
Moving with the times…
                 NRF Influence
• Based on IMD 2004
• Focus on worst 3% and 10% nationally
• 9 SOAs in worst 3% (4.5% of Wigan)
• 32 SOAs in worst 10% (16% of Wigan)
• Strong correlation with VLI/Alt VLI
• Mostly the same areas
• Strong understanding of these areas as a result of
VLI work
• Assisted NRF Team with data sets
         Most Deprived 3% SOAs
(plus other Top 10 VLI/AVLI not included)
                                Disproportionality
                 Wigan
                                     Worst 10% SOAs                   Worst 3% SOAs
                Borough
                Rate per 1000   Rate per 1000     Proportion    Rate per 1000     Proportion
                                 population     above Borough    population     above Borough
                                                     rate                            rate

BCS10 Crime        62.41           98.95           58.55%          94.09           50.77%
Rate 2004-05


BCS10 Crime        59.82           98.35          64.40%           92.84          55.20%
Rate 2005-06




Probation           6.53           16.49          152.53%          21.48          229.02%
Clients
Jan04-Dec05

PPOs (on list       0.14            0.39          182.30%           0.59          322.16%
as at April
2006)

YOT Clients         4.44           11.23          152.78%          15.82          256.14%
2005-06


YISP Clients        0.89            2.75          210.85%           3.68          315.05%
2005-06
                  Disproportionality

•   Crime & Disorder disproportionality
•   Need to bend mainstream resources to tackle this
•   Political issue
•   Some strong arguments
•   We are bending “problems” into these areas
•   E.g. Asylum Seekers, Probation clients
•   Resources must follow
           Neighbourhood Policing

• Recent Briefing Paper on Neighbourhood Policing & the
  NIM
• Piloting this within Priority Neighbourhoods
• Profiling the 9 SOAs in the worst 3% nationally
• Specific focus on 1 area to develop template for
  Neighbourhoods within the Borough
• Envisage co-located multi-agency teams within Priority
  Neighbourhoods
• Virtual teams in less vulnerable locations
  Priority Neighbourhoods and the
Vulnerable Localities Index in Wigan

                      Ian Bullen
     Strategic Analytical Partnership Co-ordinator

								
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