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					The Future of Society
                               “We are engaged in a revolution; a
                               technological revolution. We have commenced
                               an era where computers, databases, and the
                               internet handle tasks formally completed by
                               the human hand and mind. We live in and at our
                               computers. We do not have to leave the comfort
                               of our own computer station any longer.
                               Everything imaginable can be found on the
                               internet; from research, to shopping, to business
                               transactions, to love.

                               It is not us that makes technology obsolete, it is
                               our technology which is making us obsolete.
                               We are the computers, the computers are us.”

   http://www.uvm.edu/~artclass/cyborg/NateCloutier.html




                                                                              1
                       The Future of Society
Think of your life before the answering machine, the ATM, e-mail.
    Think of your grandparents' lives before the television and the
    airplane. Think of your great-grandparents' lives before the
    telephone. All told, the shift will be that substantial. Machines
    will recognize our faces and our fingerprints. They will watch
    out for swimmers in distress, for radioactivity- and germ-
    laden terrorists, for red-light runners and highway speeders,
    for diabetics and heart patients.
Imagine devices that monitor the breathing rhythms of infants in
    cribs, watch toddlers at day care, and track children as they go
    to and from school; that can keep an eye on our home supply
    of orange juice and let us know when the milk is sour.
    Machines might watch our calorie intake and burn-off,
    monitor air quality in our homes, and look out for mice and
    bugs.
Envision sensors as large as walls and as small as molecules in
    your bloodstream sending quiet signals to nearby computers,
    which will process and relay information to you, your doctor,
    your lawyer, your grocer, your building manager, your car
    mechanic, your local fire or police department. As time and
    technology march on, less and less will escape the attention of
    sophisticated machines. They'll have us covered.

http://magma.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0311/feature1/index.html

                                                                        http://www.janis-purucker.de/3dgallery/utopia.jpg

                                                                                                                            2
                                   Who controls who?
     “We shape our buildings and
     afterwards they shape us.”                                                   www.hasekamp.net/thailand/thailand1.jpg
     Winston Churchill.




www.tickintsofcentralohio.org/images/Historical/Horseless_carriage_ca._1915.jpg


                                                                                                                            3
        What was the role of
(information) technology in Sept 11 th?




                                                 http://www.ptb.be/scripts/center.phtml?section=A1AAAABS




               http://media.guardian.co.uk/gallery/image/0,8560,-10904255171,00.html

                                                                                                           4
   What is he talking about?


  “We have one here at Cambridge;
  there is one in Manchester and there
  ought to be one in Scotland as well
  but that is about all.”

Douglas Hartree 1947 quoted in The Dream Machine p 8.


                                                        5
Growth in technology….




               Manchester Mark I
  www.man.ac.uk/Science_Engineering/CHSTM/nahc.htm

                                                     6
http://foodman123.co
    m/ibm709.htm



        IBM 709
        ~1955




                       7
DEC 2060 – Early 1980‟s

                          DEC 2060 with 1
                          million 36-bit words of
                          MOS memory,
                           PDP-11 front end,
                          PDP-11 sync
                          communications, 1
                          RP06 176 MB disk, 2
                          RP07 498MB disks.
                          Running TOPS-20 with
                          FORTRAN-20,
                          COBOL-68/74,
                          BASIC-PLUS-2, CPL-
                          20, and MS (a mail
                          system).
                          http://www.hawaii.edu
                          /infobits/s2000/images
                          /dec2.jpg




                                             8
         Moore‟s “Law”



  Moore's law (rule of thumb) - processor power
              doubles every 2 years


              List of Intel Processors
http://www.intel.com/pressroom/kits/quickrefyr.htm




                                                     9
                             Developments
                            Number of Computers in TCD
                              Since 1980 (Estimated)

                      10000
                       9000
Number of Computers




                       8000
                       7000
                       6000
                       5000
                       4000
                       3000
                       2000
                       1000
                          0
                          1980   1985   1990          1995   2000   2005
                                               Year


                                                                           10
Computers in Towson in 2008
 How many computers will there be in Towson when you
  graduate?

 How powerful will they be: processor, memory, etc.

 What will the situation be in 2018?




                                                        11
 The future of technology….
 “Early in the next millennium your right and left cuff links
  or earrings may communicate with each other by low
  orbiting earth satellites and have more computing power
  than your present PC. Your telephone won’t ring
  indiscriminately; it will receive, sort, and perhaps respond
  to your incoming calls like a well trained English butler”.
 [Being Digital. N. Negroponte, 1995.]




                                                                 12
   The Home of The Future
 Changing Places/House_n The MIT Home of the Future
  Consortium - architecture.mit.edu/house_n/



 Welcome to the Broadband Home of the Future Wired
  Magazine article January 2004
  www.wired.com/wired/archive/12.01/wiredhome_1.ht
  ml




                                                       13
                Cybernetics

 “I was born human. But it was an accident of fate – a
  condition merely of time and place. I believe it’s
  something we have the power to change…..”

 www.kevinwarwick.com




                                                          14
 “Impact Of IT Upon Society
 Good Things     Bad Things




                                15
                    Convergence!
IT                                   Communications




       Computers
                    Convergence
                                   Communications

     Applications




                                            Content

                                                    16
IT
     The Information Society   Communications




             The Information
             Society



                                            17
         A day in the life…..


 Many examples in the press
  and media of home and work
  in the future…..




                               www.arch.usyd.edu.au/kcdc/vds96/elective/images/nc.gif



                                                                                        18
     Technology & Society
“NAIVE MODEL” OF TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT



                       ART   LAW
   Technology
     Set of feasible               WORK
      applications
      - expanding
                                   LEISURE
                        ECONOMY         Society

                                                  19
            2 Things to Note


Pervasive != Important


Rate of change




                               20
            Rate of Change
 The first steam powered cotton mill in the US dated from
  1847 - sixty three years after its adoption in Britain.

 The first electronic computers were developed in the mid
  forties.

 Fifty years later we have………..




                                                             21
                  Pervasive
 Not All Pervasive Technologies Are “Important”

 Zip fasteners and matchsticks are clearly not all that
  important.

 The automobile, radio and TV, electricity and printing
  have greater claims to importance.

 Why is this?




                                                           22
What does history tell us?


      Technology has always had a huge
   influence upon the development of society.

                 Examples?




                                                23
Some Previous Technologies
     & Social Change
 Farming
    settled life, villages.


 Industrial revolution.
    Output increased faster than labor input.
    Work centralized in factory units.
    Land declined as the chief source of wealth.
    Urbanization.

 Train network, printing press, sanitation, mechanical
  clocks, the telescope etc. etc.


                                                          24
                           The Telegraph

 See “The Victorian Internet” for a
  very interesting discussion.
 Effects include
    Commerce – stock exchange
    The .com phenomenon
    News reporting – Crimean
       War/Florence Nightingale
 World Peace!”
       "It brings the worlds together. It joins the
        sundered hemispheres. It unites distant
        nations, making them feel that they are
        members of one great family".
        [Standange 98]
                                                       http://www2.arts.gla.ac.uk/SESLL/STELLA/STARN/scotplay/
                                                                      SMITH/CARNEGIE/act1.htm




                                                                                                                  25
 The Case of the Automobile
                    [Kling 96]

 Originally promoted as a clean mode of private transport.
 Today society is strongly dependent upon the private car
  with accompanying, pollution and traffic jams.
 Deaths due to accidents
    400-500 each holiday weekend in the USA. (Kling)
 Helped give rise to suburbia and the decline of urban
  centers.
 The road infrastructure requires huge on going public
  investment
 Dependence upon oil.
    1970‟s oil crisis, the Gulf War (I) and (II), …..


                                                              26
                  Neutral


 Technology May Not Be Neutral



 Often With Technology Society Gets More Than It
  Bargained For!




                                                    27
                             A Variety of Views




                                                      http://www..pensacolabeach.com/ domeofahome/


http://www.filmarchiv.at/events/lang/metropolis.htm




                                                                                                     28
       Dawn of a new age….

       “Within a few short decades, society
    rearranges itself - its worldview, its basic values,
    its social and political structures, its arts, its key
    institutions. Fifty years later there is a new world.
    And the people born then cannot even imagine the
    world in which their grandparents lived and into
    which their own parents were born.”

 Peter Drucker. Post Capitalist Society, 1993.


                                                             29
            Negroponte‟s View
 The change from atoms to bits is irrevocable and unstoppable. P4
 Computing is not about computers any more it is about living. P6.
 Early in the next millennium your right and left cuff links or earrings may
  communicate with each other by low orbiting earth satellites and have more
  computing power than your present PC. Your telephone won‟t ring
  indiscriminately; it will receive, sort, and perhaps respond to your incoming
  calls like a well trained English butler. P6.
 On-demand information will dominate digital life. We will ask explicitly and
  implicitly for what we want, when we want it. P169.
 The information superhighway is more than a short cut to
  every book in the Library of Congress. It is creating a
  totally new, global social fabric. P183.

 [Being Digital. N. Negroponte, 1995.]

                                                                                  30
   Chris Evans‟ View (1980)
In the home in the short term future (early 1980s) there will be
 “speaking bathroom scales, freezers which remind you to restock
    them, cookers which tell how the meat is coming along, telephones
    that tell you how many people have rung in your
    absence……thermometers which advice you what to wear before you
    get up."
     (p79)

 “The first practical shift will be reflected in a cut in the working week
  to an average of 30 hours, a retirement option at fifty five or even
  fifty, and annual vacations of at least six weeks”. (p95)

 [Evans C., The Mighty Micro, Cornet, 1979]


                                                                              31
            Thoreau (1850)
 Technology for Technology‟s Sake?

   “...so with a hundred other „modern improvements‟

   ..... our inventions are wont to be pretty toys which
        distract our attention from serious things.

   They are but an improved means to an unimproved
     end..…”

        “Walden” by Henry Thoreau 1818-1862


                                                           32
              Kling‟s View
 The Seductive Equation of Technological Progress with
  Social Progress.



“Social Revolutions are based on changes in ways of life, not
  just changes in equipment…..”




                                                                33
                               Steve Talbott
“No law seems more certain than this one: the next generation of computers will
   be better than the last. Yet no law conceals a more socially devastating lie.”
     [Netfuture, #1, Dec, 1995]

“I recently heard an industry pundit say, "As voice recognition technology gets more sophisticated, we can expect
      computers to become more user-friendly.“ Self-evidently true? Let's consider. Perhaps the most conspicuous
      application of voice recognition today is in telephone answering systems. The idea, of course, is that better listening
      skills will enable the software to deal more flexibly with your and my needs. The notorious klunkiness of the current
      answering systems will yield to friendlier capabilities.
In a sense, this is true. When I call a business in the future, the options will be more numerous, and I'll be able to negotiate
      those options with voice commands more
complex than "yes" and "no." But this is to ignore an obvious fact about the new capabilities: their reach will be
      extended. Where earlier software eventually routed you to a human operator, the
"friendlier" version will replace the operator with a software agent who will attempt to conduct a crude conversation with
      you.
So the earlier frustrations will simply be repeated -- but at a much more critical level. Where once you finally reached a
      live person, now you will reach a machine. And if you thought the number-punching phase was irritating, wait until
      you have to communicate the heart of your business to a computer with erratic hearing, a doubtful vocabulary of 400
      words, and the compassion of a granite monolith!
The technical opportunity to become friendlier, in other words, is also an opportunity to become unfriendly at a more
      decisive level. This is the prevailing law of technological development, underlying nearly every claim of progress. “
[Netfuture, #1, Dec, 1995, http://www.netfuture.org/1995/Dec1495_1.html#3]




                                                                                                                                   34
            Digital Age Nonsense
I sometimes wonder whether the folks at the M.I.T. Media Lab are pulling our legs. Are they stand-up
     comedians in disguise? It seems that a lot of energy at the prestigious lab (which claims to be
     "inventing the future") is going into the redesign of the American kitchen. For example, one project
     involves training a glass counter top to assemble the ingredients for making fudge by reading
     electronic tags on jars of mini-marshmallows and chocolate chips, then coordinating their
     quantities with a recipe on a computer and directing a microwave oven to cook it.

Dr. Andrew Lippman, associate director of the Media Lab, says that "my dream tablecloth would
     actually move the things on the table. You throw the silver down on it, and it sets the table."

One waits in vain for the punch line. These people actually seem to be serious. And the millions of
    dollars they consume look all too much like serious money. Then there are the corporate sponsors,
    falling all over themselves to throw yet more money at these projects.

Nowadays this kind of adolescent silliness is commonly given the halo of a rationale that has become
    respected dogma.
[Netfuture, #87, March 30, 1999, http://www.netfuture.org/1999/Mar3099_87.html#2c]




                                                                                                            35
  Views of/on Technologists
 “Computer Science … is the systematic study of
  algorithms….” [ACM task force quoted in Kling p33].

 “A man trained in computer science alone is by any
  definition an uneducated man” – [C. Holland, The Idea of
  A University].

 “Whether or not it draws upon new scientific research,
  technology is a branch of moral philosophy, not of
  science”, [Kling, p33].


                                                             36
IT
               Globalisation              Communications




     The Information Society is a Global Society

                                                       37
Charles Handy - Globalisation
 In the large
“Today we are faced with the complexity of the global
  community. Decision makers have to operate beyond the
  traditional limits of national boundaries and regulations,
  beyond the conventions of a particular culture.”
 In the small
“Life is now horribly confusing. We are mixing up home and
  work, and work is no longer secure.”

Charles Handy


                                                               38
         Essential Argument

 The role of (Digital) Technology in all this change,
  globalisation, information society, employment, views of
  humanity etc. etc.

 The role of Engineers in all this…..

 The role of Education in all this…..




                                                             39

				
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