Docstoc

Richardson

Document Sample
Richardson Powered By Docstoc
					      ECMWF products and performance


                                   David Richardson,
                                         Thanks to:
                               Met Division colleagues
                                                      Slide 1




Forecast Products Users Meeting 11-13 June 2008
Outline

 Forecast system and recent operational changes
 Performance
       Jumpiness (inconsistency); 00 v 12 forecast
 Product development
 Web developments




                                                  Slide 2




Forecast Products Users Meeting 11-13 June 2008
The operational forecast system
 High resolution deterministic forecast: twice per day
 25 km 91-level, to 10 days ahead
 Ensemble forecast (EPS): twice daily
 51 members, 50/80 km 62-level, to 15 days ahead
 Ocean waves: twice daily
 Global: 10 days ahead at 40 km
 European Waters: 5 days ahead at 10 km
 Ensemble: 15 days ahead at 100 km
 Monthly forecast: once a week (coupled to ocean model)
 51-members, 50/80 km 62 levels, to one month ahead
 Seasonal forecast: once a month (coupled to ocean model)
 41 members, 125 km 62 levels, to seven months ahead
                                                  Slide 3
 Boundary Conditions: short cut-off analyses based on 6-hourly
 4D-Var initiating a forecast to 3 days, four times per day
Forecast Products Users Meeting 11-13 June 2008
Recent operational changes

 6 November 2007 (cycle 32r3)
       Physics changes (more active model); reduced EPS perturbations

 7 December 2007 (BC suite)
       Dissemination steps extended to 90 hours (from 78) for those
       participating Member States who wish to manage their own backup
       procedures

 29 January 2008
       Revised production schedule - products available 10 to 25 minutes
       earlier, depending on the product type

 11 March 2008
       Implementation of VarEPS-Monthly system

 3 June 2008 (cycle 33r1)
       Improved moist physics in assimilation, physics changes, revision of
                                                 Slide 4
       wave model, new wave parameters, extended and higher resolution
       European wave model


Forecast Products Users Meeting 11-13 June 2008
 Time series Acc=0.6 Europe
     ECMWF FORECAST VERIFICATION 12UTC
                     500hPa               GEOPOTENTIAL                                                   SCORE REACHES 60.00
             ANOMALY CORRELATION                                 FORECAST                                SCORE REACHES 60.00 MA
       EUROPE         LAT 35.000 TO 75.000 LON -12.500 TO 42.500

     Forecast Day                                                                                      MA = 12 Month Moving Average
10


9


8


7


6


5                                                                                         Slide 5


4
     1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007


     Forecast Products Users Meeting 11-13 June 2008
Comparison with other centres
              Mean curves                                                    ecmwf
          500hPa Geopotential
                                                                           met office
       Anomaly correlation forecast
Europe Lat 35.0 to 75.0 Lon -12.5 to 42.5                                    ncep
Date: 20080301 00UTC to 20080531 00UTC                                        msc
   Mean calculation method: standard
                                                                          meteo france
100




 95




 90




 85




 80

                                                                Slide 6

 75
      1               2                  3                  4                  5         6
                                             Forecast Day
Forecast Products Users Meeting 11-13 June 2008
                                Jumpiness in forecasts
                                                  180 hours
       Saturday 16 February 2008 00UTC ECMWF Forecast t+180 VT: Saturday 23 February 2008 12UTC 500hPa **Geopotential
                                                                                                                                                                                                 168 hours
                                                                                                                                                           Saturday 16 February 2008 12UTC ECMWF Forecast t+168 VT: Saturday 23 February 2008 12UTC 500hPa **Geopotential
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   156 hours
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Sunday 17 February 2008 00UTC ECMWF Forecast t+156 VT: Saturday 23 February 2008 12UTC 500hPa **Geopotential
        Saturday 16 February 2008 00UTC ECMWF Forecast t+180 VT: Saturday 23 February 2008 12UTC 500hPa Geopotential                                        Saturday 16 February 2008 12UTC ECMWF Forecast t+168 VT: Saturday 23 February 2008 12UTC 500hPa Geopotential                                            Sunday 17 February 2008 00UTC ECMWF Forecast t+156 VT: Saturday 23 February 2008 12UTC 500hPa Geopotential
                        70°W               60°W      50°W 40°W30°W                30°E40°E 50°E      60°E           70°E                                                         70°W                60°W    50°W 40°W30°W                   30°E40°E 50°E    60°E                70°E                                                70°W               60°W     50°W 40°W30°W                     30°E40°E 50°E         60°E         70°E

                                                                                                      8.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   -19.                                                       -25.
                                                                                                                           -6.                                                                                                                                                                  -7.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       15.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    496
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   512
70°W                                                                                                                                             70°W
                                                                                                                                                70°E                                                                                                                                                        70°W
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               70°E                                                                                                                                                  70°E
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                9.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         51




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       512
                                                                                                                                                                                              49
                                                                                                                                       528
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         2




                                                                                                                                                                                                 6
                                                                          70°N                                                                                                                                                  70°N
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      51                                                                                                                                               70°N    6.
60°W
                                                            25.                                                                                  60°W          -16.                                                                                                                                         60°W                      18.
                                                                                        13.                                                     60°E                                                                                                                                                           60°E                                                                                                         -23.                                     60°E




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 528
                                                                                                                                                                                              -11.                                           -6.                                                                                                         512




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    528
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              12.




                                                                                                                           512
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         21.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          544
                                   51




                                                                                                                        -31.
                                     2




                                                                                                                                                                           52                        512     7.                                                        512                                                                                                                                                                        14.
50°W                                                                      60°N                                                                   50°W                        8                                                  60°N                                                                        50°W                                                                       60°N




                                                                                                                                       4
                                                                                                                                                50°E                                                                                                                                           -8.             50°E             544                                                                                                                                  50°E
                       52




                                                                                                                                     54
                            8




                      54                                                         54                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           528
                        4                                                           4                                                                                                                                        -29.
                                         -24.                                                528
                                                                                           -15.                                                                                                                                               528                                        544                                                                     38.                                544 14.                        -11.
                                                                                                                                                                                          11.                                                                                                                                                                                      26.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  560
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2.
                                                              560                                                                                                                 4.                                 544
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        17.                                                                                                                                                                             1.
                                                                          50°N                                                      560                                                                                         50°N                                                            560                                                                                    50°N
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       560
40°W                                                                                                                                             40°W                                                                          560                                                                          40°W
                                                                                                                                                40°E                                                                                                                                                           40°E                                                                                 576                                                              40°E
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      4.               1.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 57
           -5.
                                                                                                            4.                                                                                   15.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                -6.                                                576
                                                                          40°N
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              1.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               40°N                                                                                                                                                    40°N


          30                                                               1.                                                         °N                      30        16.                                                                                                                           °N              30                                                          1.                                 -2.                          5.      °N
            °N                                                                                                                                                  °N                                                                                                                                                      °N




                                                                                                                                                                                        576
                                                                                                                                    30                                                                                                                                                              30                                       -3.                                                                                                        30
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      11.                                                                                                                                                                             576




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             576
                                                       4.
30°W                                                                                                                                                30°W                                                                                                                                                    30°W
                                20°W                 10°W                  0°                 10°E               20°E                        30°E                                   20°W                     10°W                0°                   10°E                    20°E                          30°E                         20°W                    10°W                   0°                   10°E                   20°E                        30°E



       Saturday 16 February 2008 00UTC ECMWF EPS Perturbed Forecast t+180 VT: Saturday 23 February 2008 12UTC                                              Saturday 16 February 2008 12UTC ECMWF EPS Perturbed Forecast t+168 VT: Saturday 23 February 2008 12UTC                                                  Sunday 17 February 2008 00UTC ECMWF EPS Perturbed Forecast t+156 VT: Saturday 23 February 2008 12UTC
                           500hPa **Geopotential/ Geopotential - Ensemble member number 1 of 51                                                                                500hPa **Geopotential/ Geopotential - Ensemble member number 1 of 51                                                                                   500hPa **Geopotential/ Geopotential - Ensemble member number 1 of 51
                        70°W               60°W      50°W 40°W30°W                30°E40°E 50°E      60°E           70°E                                                         70°W                60°W    50°W 40°W30°W                   30°E40°E 50°E    60°E                70°E                                                70°W               60°W     50°W 40°W30°W                     30°E40°E 50°E         60°E         70°E


                                                                                                                 4.
                                                                                                                  512




70°W                                                                                                                                             70°W                                                                                                                                                       70°W
                                                                                                                                                70°E                                                                                                                                                           70°E
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           -1.                                                                                                       70°E


                                                                     6.                                                                                                                                                                                           4.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2.
                                                                                                                                      8




                                                                                                                                                                                  -2.                                                                                                                                                                                                               4.
                                                                                                                                    52




                                                                          70°N                                                                                                                                                  70°N                                                                                                                                                   70°N




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                528
                                                                                                                                                                                                       -5.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       528
60°W                                                                                                                                             60°W
                                                                                                                                                60°E                                                                                                                                                        60°W
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               60°E                                                                                                                 -7.                              60°E
                                                5.                                                                                                             -4.
                                                                          512
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     512
                                                                                                                                                                                                 512                                                           512                                                                                                                                                         512                                  2.
         2. 528                                                                                                                                                     52
                                                                                                                                                                       8                                                                                               0.
                                                                                  528                                            -4. 544                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        528




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         -4.              4 50°W




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         54
50°W                                                                      60°N                                                                   50°W                                                                           60°N                                                                                                                                                   60°N
                                                                                                                                                50°E
                                                                                                                                                              544                                                              -11. 528                                                                54      50°E
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              544
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     50°E
           54                                                              544                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           19.
                4                                                                                      1.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    544                                                                                                                                               560
                                                                     560                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              -3.
                -1.                                                                                                                                                                5.                                         560
                                 -2.                                                                                               560                                                                                                                                                          560                                                                                                                                                    560
                                                                          50°N                                                                                                                                                  50°N
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             3.                                                                                                        50°N
40°W                                                                                                                                                40°W                                                                                                                                                    40°W
                                                                                                                                            -3. 40°E                                                                                                                                                           40°E                                                                                         576                                                      40°E



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           1.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               57
                                                                          40°N
                                                                                              3.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                40°N
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Slide 7                                                                                             6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       40°N
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             4.
                                                                                                                                                                                  576




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              576

          30                                                                                                                           °N                     30                                                                                                                                       °N             30                                                                                                                                   °N
               °N                                                                                                                   30                             °N                                                                                                                               30                     °N                                                                                                                           30
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             -3.
                                                        -3.
30°W                                                                                                                                                30°W                                                                                                                                                    30°W
                                20°W                 10°W                  0°                 10°E               20°E                        30°E                                   20°W                     10°W                0°                   10°E                    20°E                          30°E                         20°W                    10°W                   0°                   10°E                   20°E                        30°E




                                       Forecast Products Users Meeting 11-13 June 2008
Jumpiness in forecasts

   Ensemble mean and spread




                                                    Slide 8




  Forecast Products Users Meeting 11-13 June 2008
                                                                                                                       ECMWF Analysis VT:Saturday 23 February 2008 12UTC 500hPa Geopotential

                                                       CASE STUDY




                                                                                                                                         500

                                                                                                                                               505
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    489




                                                                                                                                                                                                             495
                                                                                                                                                                                                     505
                                                                                                                                                                                              510
                                                                                                                                     5
                                                                                                                                  49
Situation of a temporary ridge with awkwardly jumpy                                                                                                       50
                                                                                                                                                            5
                                                                                                                                                                       510
                                                                                                                                                                                                              500




           behaviour in the EPS & the T799                                                                                                                                              520
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          505




                                                                                                                                                                   0
                                                                                                                                                                  52
                                                                                                                            505                                      5                  525                                        510
                                                                                                                                                              5    52 530
                                                                                                                                                           51                        530
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             515
                                                                                                                                                                    535            535
                                                                                                                                  510                                 540
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         520
                                                                                                                                                                       545
                                                                                                                                                                       550        550                                                    525
                                                                                                                                                                       555
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     530
                                                                                                                            530                                        560          560
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   535

 12 hourly evolution of the EPS mean & Control forecast                                                                     540
                                                                                                                           545
                                                                                                                          550
                                                                                                                                                                       565

                                                                                                                                                                       570
                                                                                                                                                                                   565                                 540
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     545
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               550
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             555


          differences normalised by the RMSE                                                                                                                                                        57
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     560
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    565
                                                                                                                                                                                                         5          57
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         0


      Fields are averaged over: [50N, 20W, 65N, 20E]
                                 2
                                                                                    EPS control       EPS mean
                               1.5


                                 1
  Normalised Difference (ND)




                               0.5


                                 0
                                      360 348 336 324 312 300 288 276 264 252 240 228 216 204 192 180 168 156 144 132 120 108 96                     84           72         60         48          36       24

                               -0.5

                                                                                                         Slide 9
                                -1


                               -1.5

                                                           All forecasts verifying on 20080223 12 UTC
                   Forecast Products Users Meeting 11-13 June 2008
                                -2
                                           ND-EM and ND-CON time series & statistics
                                                       T+156 - T+168
                                                                                                        EPS      EPS
                                                                                         STATISTICS
                                                                                                       Control   mean
                                           area: [50N, 20W, 65N, 20E]                          MAND     0.44     0.25
                                  Period for statistics: 2006121500 – 2008032000
                                                                                               POGEM        0.28
                                    Period for plotting: 20080101 – 20080310
                                                                                               CORR         0.59
                             3
                                                                   EPS control    EPS mean
                             2
Normalised difference (ND)




                             1


                             0
                   2008010100                   2008011612           2008020100    2008021612           2008030300

                             -1
                                                                                    Slide 10

                             -2


                              Forecast Products Users Meeting 11-13 June 2008
                             -3
How often do the EPS mean and the Control jump together
                                 area: NWEU - [50N, 20W, 65N, 20E]
                      Period for statistics: 2006121500 – 2008032000 (VarEPS)
                      MAND = Average normalised diff. over the whole period
                MAND is different for the EPS mean and the Control at each forecast step
                20

                                                    Flip-Flop > 1MAND

                15
Frequency (%)




                10



                 5


                                                                           Slide 11
                 0
                     360   336   312   288   264   240   216   192   168   144   120   96   72   48   24
                                                     Forecast step (hours)
Forecast Products Users Meeting 11-13 June 2008
Preliminary conclusions - jumpiness
Ervin Zsoter, Roberto Buizza
 The EPS mean shows much smoother behaviour as the
 forecast range increases by damping the control’s erratic
 behaviour
  ‘flip-flops’ in both control and EPS mean are uncommon
  There is little sensitivity of a result to the variable and to the
 area and also to the period (season/year)
  Work is in progress




                                                  Slide 12




Forecast Products Users Meeting 11-13 June 2008
Differences between forecasts started at 00
and 12 UTC?
                        Mean curves
                    500hPa Geopotential
             Root mean square error forecast                                           00UTC
        Europe Lat 35.0 to 75.0 Lon -12.5 to 42.5
        Date: 20071201 00UTC to 20080229 12UTC                                         12UTC
                             oper
            Mean calculation method: standard
Population: 90,90,90,90,90,90,90,90,90,90,90,90 (averaged)
  80


  70


  60


  50


  40


  30


  20


  10                                                                        Slide 13

   0
                1                     2                       3               4           5    6
                                                             Forecast Day
Forecast Products Users Meeting 11-13 June 2008
MAM 2007 Z500 RMSE 0Z vs 12Z
            1.0

                  Area = [20oW-40oE, 0oN-15oN] (North Africa)
            0.9
                  5% significance is based on a paired,
            0.8   2-sided t-test

            0.7
   RMSE (/max)




            0.6


            0.5


            0.4

                                                                                   0Z
            0.3                                                                 sig.best
                                                                                  12Z
            0.2                                                                 sig.best


            0.1


            0.0                                                    Slide 14
                  0       1      2       3      4         5        6        7   8          9   10
                                                    Forecast day


 Forecast Products Users Meeting 11-13 June 2008
Significant Dominant Error Category

     None                  FC                                  AN
     >40%
                                              Bias                  Random
     of days
                     0            12          0&12       0            12         0&12

 0             1            2             3          4          5            6          7




                                                         Slide 15



               AN Bias? 8pm                        1pm
 Forecast Products Users Meeting 11-13 June 2008
                    Zonal mean error 0 v 12 UTC




Forecast Error 0UTC D+5: RMS Z, 2008 MAM, Expver=oper 1, Analysis=oper 1. Deep colours = 5% significance                            Forecast Error 12UTC D+5: RMS Z, 2008 MAM, Expver=oper 1, Analysis=oper 1. Deep colours = 5% significance

                                                                Unit = 100m2/s2                                                                                                                    Unit = 100m2/s2




          0          1     2       3         4   5          6        120          1          2   3       4     5    6          12             0          1    2       3         4   5          6        120          1          2   3       4     5    6          12


    100                                                                                                                                 100


    200                                                                                                                                 200


    300                                                                                                                                 300


    400                                                                                                                                 400


    500                                                                                                                                 500


    600                                                                                                                                 600


    700                                                                                                                                 700


    800                                                                                                                                 800


    900                                                                                                                                 900
                                                                                                                                                             Slide 16
   1000         O              O         O             O                   O            O            O         O          O
                                                                                                                                       1000         O             O         O             O                   O            O            O         O          O
              80 N         60 N        40 N          20 N              0              20 S       40 S        60 S       80 S                      80 N        60 N        40 N          20 N              0              20 S       40 S        60 S       80 S




                         Forecast Products Users Meeting 11-13 June 2008
Conclusions 00 v 12
Mark Rodwell
 No significant difference on average between forecast errors
 from 00 and 12 UTC over N hemisphere or Europe
 Problems over Africa with forecasts verifying at 12Z (mid-day
 local time)
       Possible problem with timing of convection?
 Elsewhere, biases in the analysis can also be the dominant
 error category, though not with strong statistical significance




                                                  Slide 17




Forecast Products Users Meeting 11-13 June 2008
Product Development - implemented

 All products available 10-25 minutes earlier
 Additional pressure levels for deterministic model
 Etadot fields available (vertical velocity in model coordinates)
 New wave products (maximum wave height)
 Ensemble mean and spread added to web
 EPSgrams: new parameters (wind direction, waves), revised
 precipitation scale




                                                  Slide 18




Forecast Products Users Meeting 11-13 June 2008
Product Development – in progress

 Tracking of tropical cyclones developing during forecast
 Review of clustering
 Percentiles (EPS and model climate)
 Clickable EFI map (show EPS and climate distribution at point)
 Climate information on EPSgrams, EFI maps
 Possible extension of EFI (parameters, steps)
 Extra-tropical cyclone products
 Collaboration with Meteoalarm on heat wave indices




                                                  Slide 19




Forecast Products Users Meeting 11-13 June 2008
Typhoon Nargis – May 2008

                                                                                            20080428 0 UTC
                                                             Probability that 01B will pass within 120km radius during the next 120 hours
                                                         tracks: black=OPER, green=CTRL, blue=EPS numbers: observed positions at t+..h
                                                                        80°E                                     100°E
                                                  30°N                                                                                      30°N100

                                                                                                                                               90

                                                                                                                                               80

                                                                                                                                               70
                                                  20°N                                                                                      20°N
                                                                                                                                               60

                                                                                                                                               50

                                                                                                                                               40
                                                                                   0
                                                                                  -12
                                                                                                                                               30
                                                  10°N                                                                                      10°N
                                                                                                                                               20

                                                                                                                                               10

                                                                                                                                               5
                                                                      80°E                                   100°E




                                                          ECMWF strike probability forecast for
                                                          Nargis from 00 UTC 28 April
                                                                 Slide 20




Forecast Products Users Meeting 11-13 June 2008
Genesis of typhoon Nargis
                                                  20080423 0 UTC
           Probability that NARGIS will pass within 120km radius during the next 120 to 144 hours
                                         80°E
                                              VT: 20080428 - 20080429 90°E
                                                                                                           101

                                                                                                           90

                                                                                                           80
    20°N                                                                                            20°N



                                                                                                           70

                                                                                                           60

                                                                                                           50

                                                                                                           40

                                                                                                           30
    10°N                                                                                            10°N


                                                                                                           20
                                                                     Slide 21
                                                                                                           10

                                                                                                           5
                                       80°E                          90°E


Forecast Products Users Meeting 11-13 June 2008
Genesis of typhoon Nargis
                                             20080426 0 UTC
         Probability that NARGIS will pass within 120km radius during the next 48 to 72 hours
                                     80°E
                                         VT: 20080428 - 20080429  90°E

                                                                                                       101

                                                                                                       90

                                                                                                       80
  20°N                                                                                          20°N



                                                                                                       70

                                                                                                       60

                                                                                                       50

                                                                                                       40

                                                                                                       30
  10°N                                                                                          10°N


                                                                                                       20

                                                                     Slide 22                          10

                                                                                                       5
                                     80°E                         90°E




Forecast Products Users Meeting 11-13 June 2008
Extra-tropical cyclones and objective fronts




Tim Hewson and Helen Watkins (Met Office)
     Hewson, T.D. ‘Diminutive Frontal Waves - a link between Fronts and Cyclones’. Recently
     accepted for publication in J. Atmos. Sci.       Slide 23

     Hewson, T.D. and Titley, H.A. ‘Objective Identification and Typing of Cyclonic Features
     from Initiation through to Decay’. about to be submitted to Meteorol. Appl.

 Forecast Products Users Meeting 11-13 June 2008
Extra-tropical cyclone tracking




                                                  Slide 24




Forecast Products Users Meeting 11-13 June 2008
Strike probability




                                                  Slide 25




Forecast Products Users Meeting 11-13 June 2008
Objective fronts




                                                  Slide 26




Forecast Products Users Meeting 11-13 June 2008
Web product development

 Users increasingly rely on ECMWF website for
 routine forecast information
 At present web does not have same operational
 status as dissemination
 Project to improve service for products delivered via
 the web
       Re-design the architecture (HW, SW) to match the quality
       of service provided by the operational dissemination
       Produce plots on-demand
       Major effort involving Met Division and Computer Division
 User requirements?
                                                  Slide 27




Forecast Products Users Meeting 11-13 June 2008
2007 user comments and requests (1)

 Expressed interest in earlier delivery of day 1-10 products (~30
 minutes)
 Monthly forecast run on Sunday preferred by some users
 (Thursday run still also required by other users)
  Requests for new products
       Confirmed requirement for current ECMWF product developments
       additional requests for
          •   More pressure level data
          •   Interest in improved sunshine duration, precipitation duration/onset
              (subject to future research)
          •   Wave EPSgrams and EFI; visualisation of altimeter data with wave
              analysis fields
                                                   Slide 28
          •   Daily precipitation frequency for seasonal forecast
          •   Development of extra-tropical cyclone track products

Forecast Products Users Meeting 11-13 June 2008
2007 user comments and requests (2)

 Strong interest in re-forecasts for both medium-range and
 monthly use (will be available in unified VarEPS/monthly)
       Request to run ahead of real time (as planned)
       Interest in 51-member hindcast set for performance assessment
       for medium-range and monthly forecasts
 Interest in zoomable maps: display more details (higher
 resolution) for smaller regions
 Interest in development of more sophisticated routines
 (available to users) for interpolation in both space and time, for
 use in product generation


                                                  Slide 29




Forecast Products Users Meeting 11-13 June 2008
PREVIEW data targeting system (DTS)

 Interactive web-based system to provide data targeting
 information and request additional observations to improve
 short-range (1-3 days) forecasts of potentially high-impact or
 high uncertainty weather events in Europe
 DTS has been developed by ECMWF in partnership with UK
 Met Office
 Funded by EU and EUCOS as part of Eurorisk PREVIEW




                                                  Slide 30




Forecast Products Users Meeting 11-13 June 2008
DTS development

 Prototype trial from September-October 2007
       System performed very well
       Some useful suggestions and improvements
 Pre-operational trial began in February 2008 (restricted users)
 Full access to all interested users began in March 2008
 Trial will continue to end December 2008
 During trial additional observations can be requested from
 radiosondes, European ASAP (ship-launched radiosondes),
 European AMDAR (commercial aircraft)
 More information on website:
 http://www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/PREVIEW/DTS/index.html
                                         Slide 31




Forecast Products Users Meeting 11-13 June 2008
PREVIEW DTS Statistics
4th February to 22nd April 2008 (inclusive)


   Cases suggested by UKMO, Meteo-France, ECMWF and DWD
        Total number of cases proposed: 179
        Total number of cases accepted: 156
        Additional 73 cases from the IPY-THORPEX experiment (automatically
        accepted)

   SACs are performed for all accepted cases
   Extra observations requested from 70 cases
        558 observations requested (including AMDAR)
        463 observations requested (excluding AMDAR)
        375 extra observations deployed (excluding AMDAR)

   84% of requested radiosonde launched were made
                                                   Slide 32




 Forecast Products Users Meeting 11-13 June 2008

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Categories:
Tags:
Stats:
views:12
posted:10/12/2011
language:English
pages:32