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State of the Workforce
2008
Rising Expectations - Declining Outcomes
State of the Workforce Reports
• Labor Force Decline in Greater New Haven -’02
• 16-24 Year Olds - Future Workforce in Peril - ’03
• Workforce Dilemma - ’05
• Connecticut’s Competitive Challenge - ’06
• The Haves, Have-Nots, and Used-to-Haves - ‘07
State of the Workforce 2007
Population
Gainers and Losers in State Population
July 2006 – July 2007
•Growth Rate 0.2%
CT •Growth Rate Rank 44
Lost Population
Gained 0.5% or less
Gained 0.6% - 1.2%
Source : USA Today & Census Bureau Gained 1.3% or more
Population Change in South Central CT 2000-2006
0% - 3% Cromwell
Portland
3% - 6% East
Hampton
6% - 10% Meriden Middletown
Middle-
Over 10% field
East Haddam
Haddam
Durham
Wallingford
Bethany Chester
North
Haven North Killing-
Wood- worth Deep River
Hamden Branford
bridge Essex
New East Old
Haven Guilford West-
Haven Clinton brook Saybrook
Orange West Madison
Branford
Haven
Milford
50% of Region’s Population
Source: CT Department of Labor
CT Population Changes
• CT’s 18 to 64 year old working age population is
expected to decline through 2030
• CT’s elderly population, 65 +, will increase by 70%
during the same time period
• As a result, the number of workers per elderly
resident will decline by 40%
• CT’s loss of 20 to 34 year olds continued to be
greatest in nation between 1990 and 2006
• 2.6% of CT residents moved in from another state
in 2006 - US rank 39th
Source: New England Economic Partnership
State of the Workforce 2007
Employment
South Central Connecticut
Employment Concentration by Industry Clusters
Employment Concentration
Source: CT Department of Labor
South Central CT Worksites
By Size 2004 – 2006
Number of 2004 # 2004 Total 2005 # 2005 Total 2006 # 2006 Total
Employees Worksites Employment Worksites Employment Worksites Employment
0-4 10,799 18,643 10,878 19,041 11,148 19,294
5–9 3,595 23,814 3,637 24,060 3,602 23,877
10 – 19 2,418 32,416 2,399 32,364 2,390 32,308
20 – 49 1,683 50,534 1,668 50,185 1,717 52,525
50 – 99 579 40,404 585 40,225 595 40,436
100 – 249 342 52,873 358 55,145 377 57,787
250 - 499 48 15,972 47 15,553 44 14,134
500 – 999 23 14,212 21 13,652 21 13,531
1000 + 16 43,718 13 40,100 13 41,232
Total 19,483 292,586 19,606 290,325 19,907 295,134
Source: CT Department of Labor
Job Growth 1989-2007
Source: DataCore Partners LLC
CT JOB GROWTH VS.COMPENSATION PER JOB - 2001 TO 2006
2001 – 2006 Growth 2006 Total Comp
NAICS Sectors Job Change Rank NAICS Sectors Compensation Rank
Health 18,800 1 Financial Services $142,402 1
Leisure & Hospitality 12,800 2 Federal Gov’t w/Military $135,239 2
Education 8,200 3 Wholesale Trade $92,398 3
State and Local Gov’t 3,000 4 Manufacturing $88,165 4
Transportation & Utilities 2,000 5 Bus & Prof Services $86,513 5
Construction 1,600 6 Information $81,041 6
Financial Services 1,400 7 Other $69,391 7
Other 1,400 8 All Government $67,252 8
All Government 1,100 9 Construction $66,279 9
Wholesale Trade 200 10 State and Local Government $61,320 10
Federal Gov’t w/Military -1,900 11 Health $51,986 11
Retail Trade -3,600 12 Education $50,586 12
Bus & Prof Services -5,500 13 Transportation & Utilities $44,665 13
Information -7,000 14 Retail Trade $35,880 14
Manufacturing -32,000 15 Leisure & Hospitality $19,874 15
Source: DataCore Partners LLC
Replacement Earnings of U.S. Displaced Workers
Re-employed in 2006 by Education Level
Weekly Earnings Weekly
Educational Displaced Job* Earnings Absolute Relative
Attainment Current Job Difference Difference
Less than High School $494 $434 -$60 -12.2%
High School Graduate $581 $529 -$52 -8.9%
Some College or
Associate’s Degree $698 $611 -$87 -12.4%
College Graduate $1,222 $1,087 -$136 -11.1%
Source: Center for Labor Market Studies
Gainers and Losers in State Population
July 2006 – July 2007
Lost Population
Gained 0.5% or less
Gained 0.6% - 1.2%
Source : USA Today & Census Bureau Gained 1.3% or more
RI - $16.93
How To Improve Connecticut’s
Economic Competitiveness:
Invest in Workforce Training
It is time to secure the state’s economic future
and keep Connecticut competitive. Here is what
the competition is investing:
$7.04
$6.54 NJ
$5.94 MA
$5.27 VT
$4.10 PA
ME
$0.16
CT
Per Capita Spending on Incumbent Worker Training
Older Workers
• 2007 Business Week Survey showed 1 in 4 workers 55 and
older say they never expect to retire - 1 in 10 under age 30
says the same
• 30% of people 65 to 69 were either working or actively
looking for jobs - up from 25% in 2006
• AARP Survey of workers 50 and over shows 48% expect to
retire between 65 and 72 years of age - 10 % expect to retire
after 73 and 8% say they will never retire
• Workforce participation rates were relatively flat for 25 to 54
year olds and fell more than 3 percentage points for those 16
to 24
Source: Business Week & AARP
Employment/Population Ratios
16-19 Year Olds
Selected Years 1989 to 2007
50% 47.5%
45.2%
45% 39.6%
40% 36.4% 36.9% 34.8%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1989 2000 2002 2004 2006 2007
Source: Center for Labor Market Studies
Future Workforce
• 35% of American Households have
Children
• But 60% have pets
State of the Workforce 2007
Income Disparity
Median Income Masks
Growing Income Inequality in Region*
1999 - 2005
7%
6%
6.7%
5%
4% 5.4%
+26,000
3% +90,000
2% -60,000
1%
0%
-1% -2.4%
-2%
-3%
Households Households Households
Earning < Earning $50,000 Earning >
$50,000 to $200,000 $200,000
*Tri-State 22 county region including Fairfield, New Haven & Middlesex Counties (Excluding New York City)
Source: N Y Times
Income Distribution of Individuals Born to a Poor Family
With and Without a College Degree
45%
Degree 45%
40% No Degree
35%
68%
30% 62%
25%
20% 22% 21% 22% 23%
19% 18%
15% 16%
10%
9%
5% 5%
0%
Top Top Middle Middle Bottom Middle Bottom
Income Groups by Quintile
Source: New York Times and Brookings Institution
Impact on Wages in 2004 due to
Unequal Growth 1979-2004
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Bottom Lower- Middle Upper- Next 15% Next 4% Top 1%
Fifth Middle Fifth Middle
Fifth Fifth
Source: Economic Policy Institute
State of the Workforce 2007
Education
Educational Outcomes and Socioeconomic Status
College Completion %
Performance in 8th Grade Math
Source: Economic Policy Institute & National Center for Education Statistics
Number of Associate’s Degrees Conferred
U.S., New England & So. Central CT 1996 & 2006
Absolute Relative
1996 2006 Change Change
United States 557,858 730,643 172,785 31%
New England 28,440 27,023 -1,417 -5%
South Central CT 802 838 36 4%
So Ctrl CT Public 647 650 3 0%
So Ctrl CT Private 155 188 33 21%
Source: Center for Labor Market Studies
Number of Non-Degree Awards Granted
U.S., New England & So. Central CT 1996 & 2006
Absolute Relative
1996 2006 Change Change
United States 620,669 719,970 99,301 16%
New England 21,904 23,003 1,099 5%
South Central CT 851 1,137 286 34%
So Ctrl CT Public 144 141 -3 -2%
So Ctrl CT Private 707 996 289 41%
Source: Center for Labor Market Studies
Distribution of Associate’s Degrees Conferred
By Field of Study - South Central CT 2006
Field of Study Percent
Arts & Humanities 32%
Business 29%
Criminal Justice 1%
Education 1%
Engineering & Computer Science 8%
Heath Sciences 20%
Law 0%
Personal Services 7%
Sciences 1%
Total 100%
Source: Center for Labor Market Studies
Remedial Tales
• Of 1,161 new students entering Gateway Community
College in the 2006 fall semester:
• 38% needed developmental writing
• 54% needed developmental English
• 84% needed developmental math
• Of those who enrolling in developmental math only 48%
pass - for developmental English the success rate is 35%
• The National Center for Educational Statistics indicates that
students who enroll in a remedial reading course are 41%
more likely to drop out of college
Source: NCES & Gateway Community College
South Central CTWorks Customers 2006-2007
Placement Wages vs. Academic Assessment
Funding Source Wage % Below Basic*
Dislocated Worker Programs $15.00 63.7%
Adult Programs $12.64 71.9%
Youth Programs $10.21 78.4%
Jobs First Employment Services $9.67 89.1%
Sample Size 4,382
* % Below Basic = those customers testing below
basic proficiency levels in math and/or reading
State of the Workforce 2007
Workforce Housing
American Housing Snapshot
• 1977 average family size was 3.1 people
• 2007 average family size was 2.6 people
• 1977 average house built was 1,700 sq ft
• 2007 average house built was 2,469 sq ft
• 1977 - 12% of homes > 2,400 sq ft
• 2007 - 44% of homes > 2,400 sq ft
Source: USA Today & US Census Bureau
Connecticut Housing
• CT housing prices defied the national trend
and rose 1.45% in 2007
• First Quarter 2008
– Sales were off 27.3%
– Prices were off 5.8%
• Combination of limited supply (CT 49th in
homes built per capita in 2007) and consistent
demand have mitigated declines
Source: Partnership for Strong Communities
State of the Workforce 2008
Ex-Offenders
Adult Probationers in South Central CT - 2007
50 & Under Cromwell
Portland
51 - 100 East
Hampton
101 - 250 Meriden Middletown
Middle-
251 - 500 field
East Haddam
Haddam
Over 500 Durham
Wallingford
Bethany Chester
North
Haven North Killing-
Wood- worth Deep River
Hamden Branford
bridge Essex
New East Old
Haven Guilford West-
Haven Clinton brook Saybrook
Orange West Madison
Branford
Haven
Milford
Source: CT Department of Labor
Growth in State Spending on Corrections and
Higher Education 1987 to 2007
Total 1987 - 2007 127%
Corrections 1997 - 2007 34%
1987 - 1997 70%
21%
Higher Ed 16%
4%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140%
Source: Inside Higher Ed
Recommendations
1. Reduce dropout rates - enforce the
legal age of 18 for leaving school
2. Improve access to Higher Ed
3. Increase the availability of
affordable workforce housing
4. Fund Incumbent Worker Training
5. Require literacy training for prison
inmates
Reduce Dropout Rates - Enforce the
Legal Age of 18 for Leaving School
• Close the loophole that allows children
16 to drop-out with parental consent
• CT high income residents are basically
100% assured of high school graduation
• However just over 75% of low income
residents graduate
Require Literacy Training for
Prison Inmates
• Functional illiteracy within the penal
system is 70%
• Less than 20% of inmates take part in any
education or training
• Lack of literacy skills is an overwhelming
barrier to success in the job market
Improve Access to Higher Ed
• Raise the expectations of low income youth
• Provide full tuition scholarships to public
colleges for Connecticut high school
graduates who have:
– achieved basic proficiency in their 10th grade
CAPT
– maintained a “C” average in high school
– family income of $45,000 or less
Increase the Availability of Affordable
Workforce Housing
• Increase public funding available for new
housing production or preservation
• Stimulate private investment by providing
financial incentives to developers
• Reward local governments for developing
more affordable housing and removing
zoning barriers.
Fund Incumbent Worker Training
• Increase public investment in incumbent
worker education and training
• Expand worker access to education and
training
• Measure policies by their success in
developing self-sufficient workers
• In 2006, MA Invested $21million in
incumbent worker training; NY $25 million;
RI, $8million; CT invested $500,000
