Global Corrugated Production to Slow to 4.4%, ICCA study forecasts
Global corrugated box growth is due to slow slightly over the next five years, dropping to a 4.4% average rate of increase that reflects lower growth in worldwide manufacturing activity. That’s the conclusion of the Global Corrugated Forecast 2007-2011 prepared for the International Corrugated Case Assn. in Elk Grove Village, Ill. Over the five-year period 2006 to 2011, the global corrugated market will generate an additional 41.6 billion square meters of demand, compared with 27.8 billion m2 over the four-year period 2002 to 2006, according to the study compiled by Prism and principal Simon Southern. Some 56% of the new world demand will be generated by China and by 2009 China will overtake the U.S. as the largest corrugated producer, it says. World shipments in 2006 rose 5.1% to 164.983 billion m2 compared to 3.7% growth in volume during 2005, ICCA reported last year. The 2007 data has not yet been released but also is expected to be above 5.0%. Over the period 2001 to 2006, global corrugated production grew by an average 4.2% per year. Following sluggish market conditions in 2001 and 2002, growth during 2004-2006 improved to an average 4.9% per year. Last year’s ICCA global box forecast anticipated the 2006-2010 rate of growth to be 4.0%, so the new forecast of 4.4% for 2007-2011 reflects the accelerating demand in Asia particularly that has driven overall global box production in the past four years. Asia is the largest region of corrugated manufacturing and for China and Hong Kong in particular, growth will continue to be robust, according to the 153-page global forecast. The 2006 ICCA data showed that Asia had 39% of the world box market and is gaining more share, compared to 27% for Europe and 26% for North America – the world’s largest market until this decade. Of the major developed regions, the report said corrugated output in North America will grow “only marginally,” although prospects in Europe are somewhat better with forecasted growth in Western Europe at 2.5% per year and 7.1% for Central and Eastern Europe. The top 15 countries, ranked by production in descending order are: USA, China, Japan, Germany, Italy, France, Spain, India, UK, Brazil, Canada, South Korea, Mexico, Thailand and Russia.