Forecasts of Aviation Activity

Forecasts of Aviation Activity Introduction Forecasting is a key element in the master planning process. The forecasts are essential for analyzing existing airport facilities and identifying future needs and requirements of these facilities. Forecasting, by its very nature, is not exact, but it does establish some general parameters for development and provides a defined rationale for various development activities as demands increase. The type and level of aviation activity occurring at an airport is dependent upon many factors, but is usually reflective of the services available to aircraft operators, the meteorological conditions under which the airport operates (daily and seasonally), the businesses located on the airport or within the community the airport serves, and the general economic conditions prevalent within the region. Aviation activity forecasting generally commences by utilizing the present time as an initial point, supplemented with historical trends obtained from previous year's activity and recorded information. Due to the lack of previous planning documents, this data has evolved from a comprehensive examination of historical airport records obtained from airport personnel, the Washington State Airport System Plan, Technical Summary Report, 2003, FAA Form 5010-1 data, FAA Terminal Area Forecasts, and the FAA Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years 2003-2014. These documents were assembled in different years, making the base year data quite variable, and emphasizing the need for establishing a well-defined and well-documented set of base information from which to project future aviation activity trends. Prior to an examination of current and future activity levels at the airport, there are several conditions and assumptions that should be noted which form the basis or foundation for the development of the forecasts contained herein. These statements cover a wide variety of physical, operational and socioeconomic considerations, and although not necessarily in order of importance or priority include: Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Draft Report/October 2006 B.1 • Weather Conditions. Existing weather data (i.e. visibility, ceiling and wind conditions) for The Friday Harbor Airport were available for analysis from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). With the exception of very few days annually, the airport is not adversely affected by poor weather conditions. Visual Flight Rules (VFR) meteorological conditions are experienced approximately 93.1% of the time annually; therefore, aircraft can generally operate at the airport on a regular basis throughout the year, with limited interruption due to weather. The potential negative impact of poor weather conditions on the operational capability of the airport is documented in the following chapter of this document. This information will be analyzed and evaluated in later chapters regarding the identification of potential instrument approach facility enhancements and the preparation of development alternatives for their implementation. Airport/Community Location, Proximity and Role. The Friday Harbor • Airport and Seaplane Base, which is uniquely situated within the San Juan Islands of Northwest Washington, provides a safe operating environment for several classes of aircraft. These aircraft range from small single and multiengine propeller driven general aviation aircraft (including floatplanes), to small business jets, and small commercial service passenger aircraft that operate to and from this quaint seaport and the U.S. mainland. More than 170 islands comprise the San Juan Archipelago (83 of the islands being designated as part of the San Juan Wildlife Refuge), and the region is recognized as one of the premier wildlife viewing areas in the world. In addition, transportation to the four largest islands (i.e., San Juan, Lopez, Orcas, and Shaw) is provided by Washington State Ferries, and this region of the State accommodates over 1,204,000 summer and winter tourists annually. • Regional Socioeconomic Conditions. The existing socioeconomic condition of a particular region has historically impacted aviation activity within that area. The two primary socioeconomic indicators, which are often analyzed in the forecast of aviation activity, are population and employment statistics. However, the impact of the tourism industry must also be carefully examined with respect to seasonal variations in visitation patterns. According to the Chamber of Commerce, tourism is the primary influencing factor on the regional economy. Therefore, this economic sector has the greatest influence on future aviation activity and air transportation services within the region. According to the latest population data prepared by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Washington State Office of Financial Management, the San Juan County population in 2003 totaled 14,800 residents. This service area population group has increased at approximately 6.8% since 1990. The year Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Draft Report/October 2006 B.2 2024 population for San Juan County is projected to reach a total of 21,291, reflecting an average annual growth rate of 1.8%. This compares to a projected statewide average annual growth rate of approximately 1.2% for the same period. According to the San Juan County Work Force Development Council, employment for San Juan County in 2003 was recorded at 6,280 residents and the per capita income was specified at $38,370. Projections for each of these data sets have not been calculated for future years. • Community Support. The Friday Harbor Airport and Seaplane Base benefits from the support of the Town and County governments, as well as local businesses and residents. The Airport is recognized as a vital Town and County asset, which contributes to the stability and the future of the region's economy. The overall position of the Port is one of continued growth and development, with special focus on the impetus that the Airport provides to maintain and attract additional economic and aviation-related development to the region. • Facilities Potential. In addition to the vital tourist and commercial passenger service role to the economy of San Juan County and Northwestern Washington, the Airport also provides facilities for emergency medical evacuations, fast freight service (e.g., U.S. Mail, Federal Express, Airborne, and United Parcel Service) and support for an active general aviation community. From an operational standpoint, the Airport’s runway (3,402 feet) is one of several smaller facilities within the regional service area that can accommodate the operation of typically smaller general aviation aircraft (i.e., weighing less than 12,500 pounds). However, the Airport can also accommodate the operation of some of the smaller business jet aircraft. • Airport Development Issues. As a general comment, the Airport in an enviable position due to its many positive features and conditions. However, there are some issues that can and do have a negative impact on the Airport, and the aviation industry as a whole, and these must be considered in the planning process. The first issue is associated with the continued industry-wide aviation recovery efforts following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. With the focus of the attacks directly involving the aviation industry, their impact rippled throughout the economy on the heal of the economic recession that began in early 2000. The initial industry response to the attacks was an immediate reduction in seating capacity, estimated at approximately 20% among domestic carriers. This reduction was accomplished through a Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Draft Report/October 2006 B.3 combination of aircraft grounding/retirement and corporate restructuring that has resulted in the transfer of the aircraft fleet and routes to regional carriers. The net result of these changes to the nationwide commercial passenger carrier segment of the industry has been fewer flights, transition to smaller aircraft, and increasing boarding load factor’s (BLF’s). One of the beneficiaries of “Post 9/11” impacts on commercial air travel has been the business/corporate sector of the general aviation industry. Fractional and corporate aircraft ownership of business-use aircraft continues to expand due to increased travel times and inconvenience associated with commercial air travel that has resulted from the increased security requirements. The second factor that impacts the commercial service at Friday Harbor Airport is the travel options to the mainland provided by the Washington State Ferries (WSF). The ferry system is the most widely used mode of access to Friday Harbor and the San Juan Islands. During the year 2003, the ferries carried approximately 464,452 passengers and 314,014 vehicles to and from Friday Harbor. According to the Washington State Ferries schedule, four boats operate the runs between Anacortes on the mainland to the San Juan Islands, which includes transit options to Friday Harbor, Lopez, Shaw and Orcas. Due to the capacity constraints of the ferries and the associated level of service considerations during the peak summer season, it is anticipated that the Airport will continue to accommodate increasing numbers of enplanements due to “passenger leakage” from the ferries. This scenario somewhat complicates the effort to accurately predict future passenger levels at the Airport and to appropriately plan for adequate airside and landside facilities. The third issue is the overall condition of the general aviation industry in the United States. Although Friday Harbor Airport is not classified as a “general aviation” airport, it does experience a fair number of general aviation operations. Beginning in 1978, the general aviation industry experienced a significant recession, and the FAA has identified several factors that contributed to this prolonged downturn. These included three (3) economic recessions, two (2) fuel crises, the enactment of the Airline Deregulation Act of 1978, the repeal of the GI Bill, and the repeal of the investment tax credit. More recently, the impacts to general aviation include the expense of owning and operating and aircraft (i.e., costs of insurance, fuel, and maintenance), competition from commuter airlines in the more open aviation market since airline deregulation, changes in disposable discretionary income, increases in air space restrictions affecting fair-weather flying, reductions in personal leisure time, and shifts in personal preference as to how leisure time is spent. These factors have severely restricted the single-engine light aircraft segment Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Draft Report/October 2006 B.4 of the industry in particular. In response, the general aviation industry has been focusing more on the business aircraft operator and less on the recreational pilot. However, there are a number of bright spots having a positive impact in certain segments of the general aviation industry. They include the passage of the General Aviation Revitalization Act of 1994 that provides an eighteen (18) year limit on product liability lawsuits against general aviation aircraft and component manufacturers. This legislation has caused renewed interest and optimism among U.S. aircraft manufacturers, who are either, reentering the single engine aircraft market after several years of absence, or are increasing future production schedules to meet expected renewed demand. The growth in the amateur-built aircraft market, and the strength of the used aircraft market, indicate that demand for inexpensive personal aircraft is still relatively strong. Additionally, operations at non-towered U.S. airports has increased, supporting the belief held by many that much of general aviation has been forced out of towered airports because of the increased commercial air carrier activity. The FAA’s efforts to aid general aviation revitalization include streamlining the certification process for new entry-level aircraft and implementing measures to provide regulatory relief and reduce user costs (i.e., reduced rules, improving the delivery of FAA services by decreasing excess layers of management, and the elimination of unneeded programs and processes). Groups such as the Aircraft Owners & Pilots Association (AOPA) and NASA are sponsoring programs that aggressively promote the benefits of general aviation and learning to fly. Airport Historical Activity Summary A tabulation of The Friday Harbor Airport's historical aviation activity since 1994 is presented in Table B1, entitled AIRPORT HISTORICAL AVIATION ACTIVITY, 1994-2003. This table presents a summary of historic aviation activity at the airport, which includes four categories of aircraft operations, as well as total operations. Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Draft Report/October 2006 B.5 Table B1 AIRPORT HISTORICAL AVIATION ACTIVITY, 1994-2005 Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Passenger Passenger Service Year Enplanements (2) Operations General Aviation Operations (1) Air Taxi Operations (1) Military Operations Total Operations 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 (2) 2004 2005 12,419 12,742 12,963 17,636 19,359 20,261 19,616 13,525 10,323 12,151 16,107 13,551 (2) (2) (2) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10,493 ----- 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 10,493 8,519 ----- 47,420 47,862 47,088 47,551 48,476 50,906 51,723 51,132 52,033 44,360 ----- 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 ----- 62,420 62,862 62,088 62,551 63,476 65,906 66,723 66,132 62,526 63,396 63,270 (2) 63,405 (2) Source: (1) FAA APO Terminal Area Forecasts, 1990-2020. (2) Friday Harbor Airport Personnel. As can be seen, total aircraft operations (an operation is defined as either a takeoff or a landing) at Friday Harbor Airport has remained relatively flat through the last ten (10) years. Annual counts have ranged from a low of 62,088 operations in 1996 to a high of 66,723 operations in 2000. • Passenger Enplanements. There has been a fluctuation in the number of passenger boarding since 1994. This trend will likely depend upon the pace of the national economic recovery and a continued strong demand for both regional and national tourism travel to/from Friday Harbor and the U.S. mainland. Commercial Service Aircraft Operations. At present, commercial service operations are being provided by San Juan Airlines and Kenmore Airlines. Daily flights are provided to Seattle, Anacortes, Bellingham, and Orcas Island. In addition, Island Air provides commercial service on a charter basis and maintains a contract with San Juan Island Emergency Medical Services to transport patients off the island to hospitals on the mainland. According to records maintained by the Airport, approximately 10,493 commercial • Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Draft Report/October 2006 B.6 operations were generated at the Airport in 2003, utilizing the Cessna Grand Caravan, the Piper Navajo Chieftan, and the Turbo Stationair aircraft. • General Aviation Operations. General aviation operations are typically more directly tied to economic conditions than commercial passenger operations, and this trend is often reflected in the historical operations data for a particular airport. With the absence of an Air Traffic Control Tower (ATCT) located on the field, accurate counts of general aviation operations are typically unavailable for analysis. However, Airport Staff installed a RENS Aircraft Activity Counter in the early 1990s, which utilizes acoustical recording techniques to count aircraft takeoffs. Therefore, the historical operational data available for Friday Harbor Airport reflects fairly accurate estimates of the general aviation activity occurring at the Airport since 1994. As economic conditions in the region change in the future, fluctuations in the number of general aviation operations at the Airport will likely continue although an increasing trend is expected over the long-term. Air Taxi Operations. During the past decade the number of air taxi operations has fluctuated significantly, with a high of approximately 15,000 annual operations in the early 1990’s and a low of approximately 8,519 in 2003. As categorized by Air Traffic Control (ATC) personnel, "Air Taxi" includes those aircraft capable of seating less than 60 passengers, which are being utilized for passenger or air freight service on unspecified routes and which use a three letter company designator or the "Tango" designation. Air taxi operations for the year 2003 included those conducted by air cargo aircraft. For purposes of this study, air taxi operations will be included in the general aviation operations category. Military Operations. Historically, military aircraft have not utilized Friday Harbor Airport with the exception of three or four training flights a month. This level of activity is expected to remain the same throughout the planning period. • • Airport Passenger Enplanement Forecast Passenger enplanement forecasts are an important part of the forecasting effort as they form the cornerstone of formulating air carrier and commuter operational projections. However, enplanement forecasting within Northwest Washington, and at Friday Harbor Airport in particular, is unique due in part to the Airport’s remote island location, dependence upon two small commercial service carriers, and competition with less expensive modes of transportation (i.e., the Washington State Ferries). Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Draft Report/October 2006 B.7 Historical enplanements at Friday Harbor Airport have fluctuated over the past decade. The relationship between enplanements and operations has varied somewhat; however, changes in the number of enplanements have likely corresponded to changes in the number of commercial passenger operations that are primarily driven by economic fluctuations within the tourism industry. Various passenger enplanement forecast scenarios are presented in the following table entitled, AIRPORT COMMERCIAL AIRLINE ENPLANEMENTS FORECAST, 2003-2024. Those enplanement forecasts presented in the 1990 Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan, are included for comparison purposes. The Low-, Mid-, and High-Range Forecasts were formulated utilizing specific sets of observations and assumptions. Low -Range Enplanement Forecast. The moderate-range enplanement forecast is based on the projections contained in the FAA APO Terminal Area Forecasts, 2002-2020, which utilizes an average annual growth rate for enplanements of 1.0% for Friday Harbor Airport. Using this same rate of growth and applying it to the base year derives an enplanement total count of 14,975 by the end of the 20-year planning period. Generally, this enplanement forecast is reflective of a slow growth, but stable local economy. Moderate -Range Enplanement Forecast. This forecast scenario is based on the number of enplanements growing at a rate similar to the population growth forecast for both San Juan County and the Puget Sound Region, which are both projected at a 1.8% average annual growth rate. However, this scenario also includes a minor passenger leakage factor taking place from the Washington State Ferries due to peak season capacity constraints. Additionally, this scenario reflects a steady and progressive increase in enplanements that is contingent upon the continued expansion and marketing of the tourism assets of the region and improvement of regional economic conditions. Therefore, this scenario utilizes an average annual growth rate of 2.0%. High-Range Enplanement Forecast. This forecast scenario, the recommended/ selected enplanement forecast, is based on the number of enplanements growing at an accelerated rate of approximately double the projected population growth rate (i.e., 3.5%) for the Town and the County. This projected growth rate also corresponds with current FAA air carrier enplanement forecasts for the U.S., which results in future passenger counts that are equivalent to historic highs that were recorded in the late 1990s. This scenario reflects continued expansion and marketing of the tourism assets of the region and significant improvement of both regional and national economic conditions. Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Draft Report/October 2006 B.8 Table B2 AIRPORT PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS FORECAST, 2003-2024 Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Year 1990 MP FAA Terminal Forecasts (1) Low-Range Enplanement Forecast (1.0%) Moderate-Range Enplanement Forecast (2.0%) High-Range Enplanement Forecast (2) (3.5%) 2003(3) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2014 2019 2024 --30,000 --------36,000 ------- --8,528 8,615 8,702 8,789 8,876 8,963 9,398 9,833 --- 12,151 12,273 12,395 12,519 12,644 12,771 12,899 13,556 14,248 14,975 12,151 12,394 12,642 12,895 13,153 13,416 13,684 15,108 16,681 18,417 12,151 12,576 13,016 13,472 13,944 14,432 14,937 17,740 21,070 25,024 Source: Barnard Dunkelberg & Company. (1) FAA APO Terminal Area Forecasts, 2002-2020. (2) Selected Forecast. (3) The enplanement forecasts prepared for this study were generated using 2003 base data. Use of Various Forecasts The recommended/selected forecast is the High-Range Enplanement Forecast. These projections will be submitted for FAA approval, will be utilized throughout the remainder of this Master Plan as the basis for facility needs documentation. However, the LowRange forecast and the Moderate-Range also have value that is recognized. Under almost any set of circumstances, the Low-Range forecast is expected to represent the minimum passenger growth rate anticipated at Friday Harbor Airport. In other words, at a minimum passenger enplanements should grow at the same rate anticipated by the Terminal Area Forecasts. The High-Range forecast is expected to represent the maximum passenger growth that can reasonably be expected at the Airport. The high and low forecast numbers can be utilized to help test Master Plan recommendations for feasibility and flexibility. For example, the low end forecast is often utilized to test for financial feasibility. The question, "If activity is lower than anticipated, can the development plan be funded?" can only be answered if low-end forecast numbers are known. The high forecast numbers are required to answer the Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Draft Report/October 2006 B.9 question, "will programmed facilities be adequate in capacity if aviation activity grows at the maximum reasonably anticipated rate?" This will represent an important analysis at Friday Harbor given the capacity constraints of the existing passenger terminal facility. Airport Commercial Service Operations Forecast Commercial Service operations at Friday Harbor Airport are currently represented by a combination of various single engine turbo-prop aircraft. Due to the strong summer season passenger demand for the region, operations increase over what occurs during other times of the year. The following table, entitled AIRPORT COMMERCIAL PASSENGER OPERATORS, 2003 provides detailed information on the existing air carrier and commuter carriers that are presently serving Friday Harbor Airport. Table B3 AIRPORT COMMERCIAL OPERATORS, 2005 Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Stage Length (Nautical Miles) Airline Commuter Aircraft Type Seating Capacity City/ Destination Kenmore Air San Juan Airlines San Juan Airlines San Juan Airlines Island Air Island Air Methow Airlines(1) Methow Airlines(1) ASI(1) Empire Airlines(1) Cessna 208 Cessna 206/207, Piper Navajo Chieftan Cessna 206/207, Piper Navajo Chieftan Cessna 206/207, Piper Navajo Chieftan Cessna 172 Cessna 106 Cessna 172 Beech 18 Cessna 206 Cessna 208 9 5-8 5-8 5-8 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A Seattle, WA Bellingham Anacortes Orcas Island Various Various N/A N/A N/A N/A 67 NM 24 NM 14 NM 11 NM N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Source: Airline Flight Schedules (1) Freight and/or mail carriers. Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Draft Report/October 2006 B.10 Operations. The establishment of projected passenger enplanements, in addition to identifying fleet mix, is required to properly project commercial service operations. The Boarding Load Factor (BLF) of the airlines serving an airport is one method of determining the forecast of commercial service operations. The BLF is the ratio of seats available for passenger boarding on a particular aircraft to the number of passengers actually boarding (for example, if an aircraft has fifty seats available and twenty-five passengers board, the BLF is 50%). The following table presents the commercial service operational forecasts, as well as enplanements, average seats per departure and the projected BLFs. Based on the level of passenger enplanements that have been forecast and inquiries of the commercial aircraft operators, it’s anticipated that the general size and types of passenger aircraft will remain unchanged through the planning period. This determination is further supported by the aircraft fleet make-up of the major commuter carriers operating at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (Sea-Tac) which is dominated by regional jets and large turboprop aircraft with seating capacities ranging between 37 and 78 passengers. As can be seen in the following table, it is projected that additional flights will be utilized to accommodate additional passenger demand at Friday Harbor. Table B4 AIRPORT COMMERCIAL SERVICE OPERATIONS FORECAST, 2003-2024 Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Seats 2003 (1)(2) 2009 2014 2019 2024 Turboprops Total Average Seats per Departure Enplanements Boarding Load Factor (BLF) 4-9 10,493 10,493 7.19 12,151 32.2% 10,900 10,900 7.19 14,937 38.2% 11,300 11,300 7.22 17,740 43.5% 11,700 11,700 7.26 21,070 49.6% 12,200 12,200 7.28 25,024 56.4% Source: Barnard Dunkelberg & Company. (1) Actual. (Data provided by Friday Harbor Airport Personnel) (2) The commercial service operations forecasts prepared for this study were generated using 2003 base data. Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Draft Report/October 2006 B.11 Airport General Aviation Operations Forecast In past years, general aviation activity throughout the country was generally constrained by annual increases in aircraft ownership costs. These increases, which resulted from escalating product liability insurance expenses imposed upon general aviation aircraft manufacturers, reduced new general aviation aircraft shipments by approximately ninetyfive percent (95.5%) between 1979 and 1993. However, the product liability reforms contained in the General Aviation Revitalization Act of 1994 established an eighteen (18) year limit on product liability lawsuits against general aviation aircraft and component manufactures (for aircraft of 20 seats or less). The product liability reforms contained in this act have been slowly increasing the availability of new affordable aircraft, as well as reducing the ownership and operation costs of existing aircraft. According to data presented by the General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA), industry billings and aircraft shipments steadily increased during the latter half of the 1990’s, with billings reaching all time highs in 2000. However, the economic recession that began to take hold in the latter part of 2000 and early 2001, which was compounded by the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, have negatively impacted general aviation aircraft shipments and billings (an approximate 15% reduction in each was recorded between 2002 and 2003). Similar to commercial service operational activity at Friday Harbor Airport, general aviation operations exhibit very similar peaking characteristics. The majority of operations are concentrated during the spring and summer months, and are generally associated with the tourism industry. It should be restated that the Airport is conveniently located to the Town of Friday Harbor; therefore, easy access to the Airport is available to both visitors and local residents. In 2003, a total of 52,879 general aviation operations were conducted at Friday Harbor Airport, which includes operations by the air taxi operators. The estimated tourist related use of the Airport (i.e., itinerant portion of general aviation activity) is estimated at near 70% for 2003. Due to the operational discrepancy between the Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) data (both historic and projected) and the 1990 MP base data for the general aviation category, comparative forecasts have also been generated for the master plan data set. However, the TAF data set will be used to project general aviation activity for this study, and carried forward for additional analysis. In developing the general aviation activity projections, several existing general aviation forecasts were reviewed. As presented in the following table, entitled AIRPORT GENERAL AVIATION OPERATIONS FORECAST, 2003-2024 this assessment has included the FAA's Terminal Area Forecasts, which shows a 0.2% average annual growth rate. In addition, three sets of forecasts (i.e., Low, Moderate, and High) were developed to Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Draft Report/October 2006 B.12 address varying levels of growth within the sector. The “Low” forecasts reflect the FAA’s current Terminal Area Forecasts for all general aviation activity with the United States, projected at an average annual growth rate of 0.7%. The “Moderate” forecast reflects the average annual growth rate of 1.25%, which is projected growth rate as presented in the FAA’s Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years, 2003-2014. The “High” forecast postulates an average annual growth rate of 1.8%, which corresponds to the average annual population growth rate for both San Juan County and the Puget Sound region, and is the recommended/ selected forecast. It should be noted that this selected forecast falls within the allowable deviation of 10% from what the FAA projects for forecasts. It is of interest to note that this growth rate coincides with the growth rate projected by the FAA for hours flown by general aviation nationwide. Table B5 AIRPORT GENERAL AVIATION OPERATIONS FORECAST, 2003-2024 Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan FAA Terminal Area Forecasts (1) (0.2%) Year Low-Range Forecast (0.7%) Moderate-Range Forecast (1.25%) High-Range Forecast (2) (1.8%) 2003 (3) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2014 2019 2024 65,934 66,043 66,152 66,260 66,369 66,478 66,586 67,130 67,673 --- 52,879 53,249 53,622 53,997 54,375 54,756 55,139 57,096 59,123 61,221 52,879 53,540 54,209 54,887 55,573 56,268 56,971 60,622 64,507 68,640 52,879 53,831 54,800 55,786 56,790 57,813 58,853 64,344 70,347 76,911 Source: Barnard Dunkelberg & Company. (1) FAA APO Terminal Area Forecasts, 2000-2020. (2) Selected Forecast. (3) The general aviation operations forecasts prepared for this study were generated using 2003 base data. Airport Military Operations Forecast There are generally three components in determining military aircraft use at an airport. The first is Department of Defense (DOD) funding, which has been increasing in recent years. The second is a fueling contract the airport or FBO may have with the DOD. The Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Draft Report/October 2006 B.13 third is the location, or proximity of the airport with adjacent aviation-related military bases or training areas. Currently, Friday Harbor Airport does not have a fueling contract with the DOD and none is anticipated in the future. Therefore, military operations are projected to remain relatively low (i.e., less than 50 annual operations) over the 20-year planning period of this document. Airport Operations Forecast By Aircraft Type As can be noted, total annual operations are anticipated to increase by 38% through the planning period. Overall, increasing from the current level of 63,396 to approximately 89,161 by the year 2024. This compares to the 1990 Master Plan that forecast over 170,000 operations by the year 2009. It is projected that general aviation aircraft operations will continue to represent the majority percentage of airport activity through the planning period, totaling near 86% by the year 2024. Table B6 AIRPORT SUMMARY OF OPERATIONS BY AIRCRAFT TYPE, 2003-2024 Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Operations By Type 2003 (1)(2) 2009 2014 2019 2024 Commercial Service Turboprop General Aviation (3) Single Engine Piston Multi-Engine Piston Turboprop Business Jet Helicopter Military TOTAL OPERATIONS Source: Barnard Dunkelberg & Company. (1) (2) The 10,493 10,493 52,879 50,763 529 529 529 529 24 63,396 10,900 10,900 58,853 55,903 590 1,180 590 590 50 69,803 11,300 11,300 64,344 60,814 640 1,610 640 640 50 75,694 11,700 11,700 70,347 66,137 700 2,110 700 700 50 82,097 12,200 12,200 76,911 71,531 1,000 2,690 920 770 50 89,161 Actual. operational forecasts prepared for this study were generated using 2003 base data. (3) Includes general aviation-related air taxi operations. Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Draft Report/October 2006 B.14 The Airport currently experiences a significant number of single- and multi-engine operations, approximately 98.0%, when compared with turbo-prop and business jet, approximately 2.0%, operations. Currently, operations conducted by single engine aircraft represent approximately 96.0% of the general aviation activity, while approximately 1.0% are multi-engine piston operations, 1.0% are turboprop operations, 1% are business jet operations, and 1.0% are helicopter operations. It is estimated that through the planning period, the distribution percentage of operations for single- and multi-engine aircraft will decrease slightly, with the percentage of turboprop and business jet aircraft operations increasing slightly. Airport Local and Itinerant Operations Forecast The Air Traffic Control Handbook defines a local operation as any operation performed by an aircraft operating in the local traffic pattern or within sight of the tower, or aircraft known to be departing or arriving from flight in local practice areas, or aircraft executing practice instrument approaches at the airport. According to airport personnel, itinerant operations constituted 85% of the total operations at the airport. This existing percentage of itinerant activity can be attributed to the fact that, with respect to general aviation, the airport accommodates a significant number of tourist-related aircraft operations and currently experiences a limited amount of general aviation flight training activity. It is forecast that the level of itinerant aviation activity will likely remain high. As can be seen in the following table, entitled AIRPORT SUMMARY OF LOCAL AND ITINERANT OPERATIONS, 2003-2024, The Friday Harbor Airport will remain primarily a center for leisure related general aviation operations, therefore, the percentage of itinerant operational activity will remain relatively constant through the planning period. Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Draft Report/October 2006 B.15 Table B7 AIRPORT SUMMARY OF LOCAL AND ITINERANT OPERATIONS, 2003-2024 Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Year Local Operations Itinerant Operations Total Operations 2003 (1) 2009 2014 2019 2024 9,506 (15%) 10,470 (15%) 11,354 (15%) 12,315 (15%) 13,374 (15%) 53,866 (85%) 59,333 (85%) 64,340 (85%) 69,782 (85%) 75,787 (85%) 63,372 69,803 75,694 82,097 89,161 Source: Barnard Dunkelberg & Company. (1) The existing local/itinerant operations breakdown was obtained from FAA Form 5010-1. Airport Peak Period Forecast An additional element of assessing airport usage and determining various requirements necessitated by capacity and demand considerations is the determination of peak period activities. Although specific operational data for Friday Harbor Airport was unavailable to project peak period trends, some flying activity information was available to compare with generalized FAA operational statistics for airports with similar activity and peaking characteristics. This information was then utilized to formulate peak period forecasts. The peak period operation projections are depicted in the following table, entitled AIRPORT PEAK PERIOD AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS, 2003-2024. Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Draft Report/October 2006 B.16 Table B8 AIRPORT PEAK PERIOD AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS, 2003-2024 Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Year Annual Peak Month Average Day Peak Hour/ Average of Peak Month Average Day Ratio Peak Hour 2003 2009 2014 2019 2024 63,396 69,803 75,694 82,097 89,161 6,340 6,980 7,569 8,210 8,916 205 225 244 265 288 7.0% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5% 9.0% 14 17 20 23 26 Source: Barnard Dunkelberg & Company. Operation counts were tabulated based on methodology from FAA AC 150/5070-6A Airport Master Plans and FAA AC 150/5060-5 Airport Capacity and Delay. Air Freight and Air Mail Forecast The existing air cargo carriers that regularly serve Friday Harbor Airport are Empire Airlines, Methow Aviation, and ASI. A list of aircraft that are being used by the various carriers is presented as follows: • Empire Airlines (Federal Express Contract Carrier) : Cessna 208 Caravan • Methow Aviation (Contract Mail Carrier): Beech 18 • ASI (UPS Contract Carrier): Cessna 206 Records of the annual quantity of air freight and mail transported to the Airport were sought from the T-100 Domestic Market data that is compiled on the Intermodal Transportation Database maintained by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics 1 . However, insufficient historical data was available for analysis, and data requests were submitted directly to the existing cargo and mail carriers that are serving the Airport. During the period 1999 through 2003, total air freight and mail quantities passing through the airport varied only slightly, with a peak in quantities of over 742,000 pounds being recorded in 2000. According to FAA Aerospace Forecasts Fiscal Years 2004-2015, domestic air carrier cargo revenue ton miles RTMs for both freight and mail were projected to increase at an average annual rate of 3.5% for the specified planning period. This document also references the intermodal shift that is occurring between air to ground transportation modes for both freight/express and mail carriers due to costs associated with new FAA security directives. Therefore, it is projected that the annual 1 Data can be accessed at the website: www.transtats.bts.gov. Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Draft Report/October 2006 B.17 FHR air freight/mail weights will increase at a lesser rate, estimated at approximately 1.8% annually, which coincides with the forecast annual population growth rates for San Juan County. Annual air freight and air mail quantities which passed through the Airport from 1999 to 2003, along with projections for the 20-year planning period are provided in the following table, entitled HISTORIC AND FORECAST DEPLANED AIR FREIGHT/MAIL, 1999-2024. Table B9 HISTORIC AND FORECAST DEPLANED AIR FREIGHT/MAIL, 1999-2024 Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Year Air Freight (lbs.) (1) Air Mail (lbs.) (2) Total (lbs.) 1999 (1) 2000 2001 2002 2003 5-Year Average 2009 (3) 2014 (3) 2019 (3) 2024 (3) 307,975 310,743 290,876 284,355 285,125 (42%) (42%) (40%) (40%) (40%) 432,000 432,000 432,000 432,000 432,000 (58%) (58%) (60%) (60%) (60%) 739,975 742,743 722,876 716,355 717,125 727,815 295,815 (41%) 317,338 346,945 379,315 414,704 (40%) (40%) (40%) (40%) 432,000 (59%) 480,807 525,665 574,709 628,329 (60%) 798,145 (60%) 872,610 (60%) 954,024 (60%) 1,043,033 Source: Barnard Dunkelberg & Company. (1) Historic data was compiled by Airport Staff from records provided by cargo and mail carriers. (2) Historic data was unavailable for analysis prior to 2003, therefore base year data was assigned to previous years. (3) An average annual growth rate of 1.8% are projected for the 20-year planning period. Airport General Aviation Based Aircraft Forecast The number of general aviation aircraft that can be expected to base at an airport facility is dependent on several factors, such as airport radio communications, available facilities, airport operator services, airport proximity and access, aircraft basing capacity available at adjacent airports and similar considerations. General aviation operators are particularly sensitive to both the quality and location of their basing facilities, with Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Draft Report/October 2006 B.18 proximity of home and work often being identified as the primary consideration in the selection of an aircraft basing location. According to Airport Management personnel, there is strong demand for additional aircraft storage facilities, as 29 individuals are on a hangar wait list and 15 individuals on a hangar transfer list. Currently, the airport has one-hundred twenty-eight (128) based aircraft with 73% of those stored in hangars. The based aircraft list consists of one-hundred eighteen (118) single-engine, five (5) multiengine, three (3) turbo-props, and two (2) helicopters. Generally, there is a relationship between aviation activity and based aircraft, stated in terms of operations per based aircraft (OPBA). Sometimes a trend can be established from historical information of operations and based aircraft. The national trend has been changing with more aircraft being used for business purposes and less for pleasure flying. This impacts the OPBA in that business aircraft are usually flown more often than pleasure aircraft. In 2003, the OPBA at Friday Harbor Airport was approximately 406, slightly below the average OPBA of 413 for the past ten years. It is expected that the number of OPBA will increase slightly at the Airport as more aircraft based there are used for business and tourism-related purposes. The following table, entitled AIRPORT GENERAL AVIATION BASED AIRCRAFT, 2003-2024 presents the forecasts for the twentyyear planning period. Both historical and forecast data on based aircraft at Friday Harbor Airport was collected from FAA Terminal Area Forecasts. Table B10 AIRPORT GENERAL AVIATION BASED AIRCRAFT FORECAST, 2003-2024 Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Selected Forecast Year TAF (1) 1990 MP 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2014 2019 2024 Sources: 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 ----250 ------289 ------- 128 (2) 130 131 133 135 137 138 148 158 169 Barnard Dunkelberg & Company. (1) FAA APO Terminal Area Forecasts, 2000-2020. (2) The Friday Harbor Airport Personnel. Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Draft Report/October 2006 B.19 The mix of based aircraft for incremental periods throughout the planning period is illustrated in the following table, entitled GENERAL AVIATION BASED AIRCRAFT FLEET MIX, 2003-2024. With an existing high percentage of single engine aircraft based at the Airport, the percentage of turboprop and business jet aircraft are expected to increase as a part of the total based aircraft population. This is in line, first of all, with overall trends in general aviation, but even more importantly, parallels the economic development and growth expectations and projections characteristic of the region. By the end of the planning period, single engine aircraft are anticipated to comprise 89% of the total based aircraft at the airport, with approximately 4% being multi-engine piston aircraft, 3.5% turboprops, 1.5% being business jets, and 2.0% being helicopters. Table B11 GENERAL AVIATION BASED AIRCRAFT FLEET MIX, 2003-2024 Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Aircraft Type 2003 (1) 2009 2014 2019 2024 Helicopter TOTAL Single Engine Multi-Engine Turboprop Business Jet 118 (92.2%) 126 (91.0%) 134 (90.5%) 143 (91.0%) 151 (89.0%) 5 (3.9%) 6 (4.0%) 6 (4.0%) 6 (4.0%) 7 (4.0%) 3 (2.3%) 4 (3.0%) 4 (3.0%) 5 (3.0%) 6 (3.5%) 0 (0.0%) 0 (0.0%) 1 (0.5%) 1 (0.5%) 2 (1.5%) 2 (1.6%) 3 (2.0%) 3 (2.0%) 3 (2.0%) 3 (2.0%) 128 138 148 158 169 Source: Barnard Dunkelberg & Company. (1) Actual Airport Reference Code (ARC) Analysis The types of aircraft presently utilizing an airport and those projected to utilize the facility in the future are important considerations for planning airport facilities. An airport should be designed in accordance with the Airport Reference Code (ARC) standards that are described in AC 150/5300-13 "Airport Design". The ARC is a coding system used to relate and compare airport design criteria to the operational and physical characteristics of the aircraft intended to operate at the airport. The ARC has two components that relate to the airport's "Design Aircraft". The first component, depicted by a letter (i.e., A, B, C, D or E), is the aircraft approach category and relates to aircraft approach speed based upon operational characteristics. The second component, depicted by a roman numeral (i.e., I, II, III, IV, V or VI), is the aircraft design group and relates to aircraft wingspan (physical characteristic). Generally speaking, aircraft Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Draft Report/October 2006 B.20 approach speed applies to runways and runway-related facilities, while aircraft wingspan is primarily related to separation criteria associated with taxiways and taxilanes. The following table, entitled SUMMARY OF OPERATIONS BY AIRPORT REFERENCE CODE, 2003-2024, presents an estimated operations breakdown at the airport, by ARC, for the twenty-year planning period. Based on an examination of the current operation information, premised on the schedule commercial service and cargo operation of the Cessna 208, along with numerous Category B turboprops and business jet operations, it has been determined that Friday Harbor Airport should be evaluated in consideration of a future ARC upgrade to B-II dimensional criteria. However due to the Airport’s existing site and development constraints, it may be determined that the preservation of the ARC B-I, small aircraft only design standards should be maintained. Table B12 SUMMARY OF OPERATIONS BY AIRPORT REFERENCE CODE, 2003-2024 Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Operations by ARC A-I through B-I A-II and B-II (1) A-III, B-III and C-I through C-IV (2) D-I and D-IV TOTAL (1) (2) 2003 2009 2014 2019 2024 54,427 8,929 40 0 63,396 60,003 9,760 40 0 69,803 65,374 10,280 40 0 75,694 70,957 11,100 40 0 82,097 77,021 12,100 40 0 89,161 Source: Barnard Dunkelberg & Company. Majority of operations are represented by the Cessna 208 Caravan (ARC A-II aircraft). Operations are represented by Gates Learjet (ARC C-I aircraft). Seaplane Base Historical Activity Summary A tabulation of The Friday Harbor Seaplane Base's historical aviation activity since 1994 is presented in Table B13, entitled SEAPLANE BASE HISTORICAL AVIATION ACTIVITY, 1994-2003. This table presents a summary of historic aviation activity at the airport, which includes four categories of aircraft operations, as well as total operations. Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Draft Report/October 2006 B.21 Table B13 SEAPLANE BASE HISTORICAL AVIATION ACTIVITY, 1994-2003 Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Commercial Passenger Operations General Aviation Operations Year Passenger Enplanements Air Taxi Operations Military Total Operations Operations 1994 (1) 1995 (1) 1996 (1) 1997 (1) 1998 (1) 1999 (1) 2000 (1) 2001 (1) 2002 (1) 2003 (2) Source: (1) (2) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5,600 (3) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4,600 4,600 600 4,600 0 0 0 0 0 0 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 (4) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8,600 8,600 8,600 8,600 FAA APO Terminal Area Forecasts, 1990-2020. FAA Form OMB 2120-0015, 5010-1. (3) Estimated based on telephone conversations with Kenmore Air Personnel. (4) There was some input received from Study Advisory Committee members that the general aviation operations number for the seaplane base may be high. However, there was insufficient documentation to support a reduction in the operation counts. Due to the lack of accurate information and operational counts kept for the Seaplane Base, total operations, according to the Terminal Area Forecasts, varied from zero for the years 1994 through 1999 to 8,600 for the years 2000-2003. With this lack of information, forecasting can be problematic in the sense that base line data from which to generate projections was unavailable. Therefore, forecasts will be based on the best information possible, such as estimates based on conversations with aircraft users, airport personnel, and other available FAA documentation. Seaplane Base Passenger Enplanement Forecast As previously mentioned, accurate, detailed information pertaining to passenger enplanements has not been documented for the Seaplane Base. However, conversations conducted with Kenmore Air personnel (most frequent commercial service user of the Seaplane Base), approximately 5,600 enplanements were estimated to occur for 2003. Therefore, 5,600 will be utilized as the base year enplanement count from which to generate passenger forecast for this document. Additionally, there are no current plans Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Draft Report/October 2006 B.22 for commercial service carriers to upgrade to larger aircraft. All carriers specify that their current aircraft are adequate to accommodate existing and projected passenger demand. Various passenger enplanement forecast scenarios are presented in the following table entitled, SEAPLANE BASE COMMERCIAL AIRLINE ENPLANEMENTS FORECAST, 20032024. Those forecasts developed as part of the FAA's Terminal Area Forecast are included for comparison purposes. It should be noted that the 1990 Master Plan did not forecast beyond the year 1999, which projected a total of 8,500 enplanements. The following Low-, Mid-, and High-Range enplanement forecasts were formulated utilizing specific sets of observations and assumptions. Low-Range Enplanement Forecast. This forecast scenario is predicated upon the same percentage growth rate as that exhibited by the FAA’s Terminal Area Forecasts for enplanements at the Seaplane Base over the next 20 years. Essentially, this forecast scenario shows a 0.0% growth rate, maintaining the existing level activity throughout the planning period. This scenario assumes that existing commercial service users of the Seaplane Base will retain the same aircraft with no upgrade to larger equipment in the future. Moderate-Range Enplanement Forecast. This forecast scenario postulates an average annual growth rate of 1.0% for enplanements, which is comparable to the projected ferry passenger growth rate for the course of this planning document. While ridership numbers over the last several years have varied, a trend projection shows demand to be consistent. This scenario assumes that the same consistent demand and service would be warranted for those individuals choosing to utilize the Seaplane Base. This is the recommended/selected forecast. High-Range Enplanement Forecast. This forecast scenario is based on the number of Seaplane Base enplanements growing at a rate comparable to the population growth forecast for San Juan County, which is 1.8% per year. This forecast is reflective of a stable local, regional, and national economy and increasing passenger “leakage” from the Washington State Ferry system. This scenario also assumes that the existing fare structure in place will remain relatively competitive in comparison to other modes of transportation. It has been shown that such ferry trips can take upwards to 4 to 6 hours to get to the mainland – a major inconvenience and delay that can be frustrating. Therefore, this scenario applies a 2.0% average annual growth rate. Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Draft Report/October 2006 B.23 Table B14 SEAPLANE BASE PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS FORECAST, 2003-2024 Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Year FAA Terminal Forecasts (0.0%) Low-Range Enplanement Forecast (0.0%) Moderate-Range Enplanement Forecast (2) (1.0%) High-Range Enplanement Forecast (2.0%) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2014 2019 2024 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 --- 5,600 5,600 5,600 5,600 5,600 5,600 5,600 5,600 5,600 5,600 5,600 5,656 5,713 5,770 5,827 5,886 5,945 6,248 6,566 6,901 5,600 5,712 5,826 5,943 6,062 6,183 6,307 6,963 7,688 8,488 Source: Barnard Dunkelberg & Company. (1) FAA APO Terminal Area Forecasts, 1990-2020. (2) Selected Forecast. Use of Various Forecasts The recommended/selected forecast is the Moderate-Range Enplanement Forecast. Therefore, these projections will be submitted for FAA approval, and if approved, will be utilized throughout the remainder of this Master Plan as the basis for facility needs documentation. Similar to those forecasts prepared for Friday Harbor Airport, the lowrange forecast and the high-range also have value that is recognized. Under almost any set of circumstances, the low-range forecast is expected to represent the minimum passenger growth rate anticipated at the Seaplane Base. In other words, at a minimum passenger enplanements should grow at the same rate anticipated for Ferry ridership. The high forecast is expected to represent the maximum passenger growth that can reasonably be expected at the Airport. The high and low forecast numbers can be utilized to help test Master Plan recommendations for feasibility and flexibility. For example, the low end forecast is often utilized to test for financial feasibility, and the high forecast numbers are required to identify if programmed facilities will be adequate in capacity if aviation activity grows at the maximum anticipated rate. Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Draft Report/October 2006 B.24 Seaplane Base Commercial Service Operations Forecast Currently, the Seaplane Base basically accommodates similar types of aircraft; however, these aircraft are utilized by various users and companies. Again, due to the inability to accurately ascertain the number of commercial operations performed at the Seaplane Base, the projection of 4,600 exhibited by the FAA’s Terminal Area Forecasts will be utilized as the base line count. After conversations with commercial users, this figure does not seem unreasonable when you also consider the utilization by both commercial and charter aircraft. The following table, entitled SEAPLANE BASE COMMERCIAL PASSENGER OPERATORS, 2003 provides detailed information on the existing commercial service operators that are presently serving the Seaplane Base. Table B15 SEAPLANE BASE COMMERCIAL PASSENGER OPERATORS, 2003 Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Airline Commuter/ Turboprops Aircraft Type Seating Capacity City/ Destination Stage Length (Nautical Miles) Kenmore Air Kenmore Air Kenmore Air Kenmore Air Northwest Seaplanes DeHavilland Beaver DeHavilland Otter Cessna 180 Cessna 208 Caravan DeHavilland Beaver 7-8 10 3 9 6 Lake Union Lake Union Lake Union Lake Union Various 61 NM 61 NM 61 NM 61 NM N/A Source: Airport management records. Operations. The establishment of projected passenger enplanements, in addition to identifying fleet mix, is required to properly project commercial service operations. The Boarding Load Factor (BLF) of the airlines serving an airport is one method of determining the forecast of commercial service operations. The BLF is the ratio of seats available for passenger boarding on a particular aircraft to the number of passengers actually boarding (for example, if an aircraft has fifty seats available and twenty-five passengers board, the BLF is 50%). The following table presents the commercial service operational forecasts, as well as enplanements, average seats per departure and the projected BLFs. Due to the variability in size and types of aircraft being utilized by Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Draft Report/October 2006 B.25 commercial and charter operators, an average seating capacity of 7.5 seats (average seats of current aircraft operating at the Seaplane Base) will be assumed. Table B16 SEAPLANE BASE COMMERCIAL SERVICE OPERATIONS FORECAST, 2003-2024 Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Seats 2003 (1) 2009 2014 2019 2024 Various Turboprops 3-10 Total Average Seats per Departure Enplanements Boarding Load Factor (BLF) Source: Barnard Dunkelberg & Company. (1) Actual 4,600 4,600 7.50 5,600 32.5% 4,700 4,700 7.50 5,945 33.7% 4,800 4,800 7.50 6,248 34.7% 4,900 4,900 7.50 6,566 35.7% 5,000 5,000 7.50 6,901 36.8% Seaplane Base General Aviation Operations Forecast In developing the general aviation activity projections, several existing aviation forecast documents were reviewed. As presented in the following table, entitled SEAPLANE BASE GENERAL AVIATION OPERATIONS FORECAST, 2003-2024 this assessment typically includes an evaluation as presented by the FAA's Terminal Area Forecasts; however, due to the lack of growth and similarities to the “Low” forecast, this scenario has been omitted. Three sets of forecasts (i.e., Low, Moderate, and High) were developed to address varying levels of growth within the sector. The “Low” forecasts reflect the FAA’s current Terminal Area Forecasts for all general aviation activity within the United States, projected at an average annual growth rate of 0.7%. The “Moderate” forecast reflect the general aviation operations projections as presented in the FAA Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years, 2003-2014, and is the recommended/selected forecast. The “High” forecast applies the average annual growth rate of 1.8%, which corresponds to the population growth rate for San Juan County. It should be noted that the 1990 Master Plan projected a total of 14,400 operations by the year 1999 for the Seaplane Base. Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Draft Report/October 2006 B.26 Table B17 SEAPLANE BASE GENERAL AVIATION OPERATIONS FORECAST, 2003-2024 Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Year Low-Range Forecast (0.7%) Moderate-Range High-Range Forecast Forecast (2) (1.25%) (1.8%) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2014 2019 2024 4,000 4,028 4,056 4,085 4,113 4,142 4,171 4,319 4,472 4,631 4,000 4,050 4,101 4,152 4,204 4,256 4,310 4,586 4,880 5,192 4,000 4,072 4,145 4,220 4,296 4,373 4,452 4,867 5,321 5,818 Source: Barnard Dunkelberg & Company. (1) FAA APO Terminal Area Forecasts, 2000-2020. (2) Selected Forecast. Seaplane Base Operations Forecast By Aircraft Type As can be noted, total annual operations are anticipated to increase by 19% through the planning period. Overall, operations are expected to increase from the current level of 8,600 to approximately 10,192 by the year 2024. It is projected that general aviation aircraft operations will represent all the airport activity through the planning period. Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Draft Report/October 2006 B.27 Table B18 SEAPLANE BASE SUMMARY OF OPERATIONS BY AIRCRAFT TYPE, 2003-2024 Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Operations By Type 2003 (1) 2009 2014 2019 2024 Commercial Service Turboprop (floatplanes) General Aviation (2) Single Engine Piston (floatplanes) TOTAL OPERATIONS Source: Barnard Dunkelberg & Company. (1) 4,600 4,600 4,000 4,000 8,600 4,700 4,700 4,310 4,310 9,010 4,800 4,800 4,586 4,586 9,386 4,900 4,900 4,880 4,880 9,780 5,000 5,000 5,192 5,192 10,192 Actual. general aviation-related air taxi operations. (2) Includes Seaplane Base Local and Itinerant Operations Forecast The Air Traffic Control Handbook defines a local operation as any operation performed by an aircraft operating in the local traffic pattern or within sight of the tower, or aircraft known to be departing or arriving from flight in local practice areas, or aircraft executing practice instrument approaches at the airport. According to current FAA Form 5010-1 records, itinerant operations constituted 93% of the total operations at the airport. This existing percentage of itinerant activity can be attributed to the fact that the airport accommodates a significant number of tourist-related aircraft operations and currently experiences a limited amount of general aviation flight training activity. It is forecast that the level of itinerant aviation activity will likely remain high and remain at the same level throughout the planning period. As can be seen in the following table, entitled SEAPLANE BASE SUMMARY OF LOCAL AND ITINERANT OPERATIONS, 2003-2024, the Seaplane Base will remain primarily a center for general aviation operations and customs clearance. Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Draft Report/October 2006 B.28 Table B19 SEAPLANE BASE SUMMARY OF LOCAL AND ITINERANT OPERATIONS, 2003-2024 Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Year Local Operations Itinerant Operations Total Operations 2003 (1) 2009 2014 2019 2024 601 631 657 685 713 (7%) (7%) (7%) (7%) (7%) 7,998 8,379 8,729 9,095 9,479 (93%) (93%) (93%) (93%) (93%) 8,600 9,010 9,386 9,780 10,192 Source: Barnard Dunkelberg & Company. (1) The existing local/itinerant operations breakdown was obtained from FAA Form 5010-1. Seaplane Base General Aviation Based Aircraft Forecast Currently, there are no aircraft stored at the Seaplane Base. General loading and unloading of aircraft occurs on the large 150’ long Seaplane float bridge. There are no plans to add individual slips for storage purposes; therefore, based aircraft have not been projected. Seaplane Base Airport Reference Code (ARC) Analysis The types of aircraft presently utilizing an airport and those projected to utilize the facility in the future are important considerations for planning airport facilities. An airport should be designed in accordance with the Airport Reference Code (ARC) standards that are described in AC 150/5300-13 "Airport Design". As presented for the Airport, the ARC is a coding system used to relate and compare airport design criteria to the operational and physical characteristics of the aircraft intended to operate at the facility. Based on an examination of the current operation information, it has been determined that the appropriate ARC for the Seaplane Base is ARC A-II. This designation is based on the DeHavilland DHC-6 Twin Otter aircraft. This aircraft has an approach speed of 75 knots and wingspan of 65 feet. Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Draft Report/October 2006 B.29 Summary The following tables summarize the forecasts of aviation activity for both the Airport and the Seaplane Base at Friday Harbor, which has been presented in this chapter. This information will be utilized in the following chapter to document and analyze both airside and landside facility requirements. Therefore, the forecasts of aviation activity are an important part of the information base, which will be used to develop future development plans for each facility and formulate implementation decisions related to project phasing and funding allocations. Overall, total aircraft operations at both Friday Harbor Airport and the Seaplane Base are anticipated to increase over the course of the twenty-year planning period. Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Draft Report/October 2006 B.30 Table B20 SUMMARY OF AIRPORT AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECASTS, 2003-2024 The Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Update Operations 2003 (1) 2009 2014 2019 2024 Commercial Service Turboprop General Aviation Single Engine Multi-Engine Turboprop Business Jet Helicopter Military TOTAL OPERATIONS 10,493 10,493 52,879 50,368 525 525 525 525 24 63,396 9,506 53,866 12,151 10,900 10,900 58,853 55,903 590 1,180 590 590 50 69,803 10,470 59,333 14,937 11,300 11,300 64,344 60,814 640 1,610 640 640 50 75,694 11,354 64,340 17,740 11,700 11,700 70,347 66,137 700 2,100 700 700 50 82,097 12,315 69,782 21,070 12,200 12,200 76,911 71,531 1,000 2,690 920 770 50 89,161 13,374 75,787 25,024 Local Operations Itinerant Operations Passenger Enplanements Based Aircraft By Type Single Engine Multi-Engine Turboprop Business Jet Helicopter Total Source: Barnard Dunkelberg & Company. (1) Actual. 118 5 3 0 2 128 126 6 4 0 3 138 134 6 4 1 3 148 143 6 5 1 3 158 151 7 6 2 3 169 Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Draft Report/October 2006 B.31 Table B21 SUMMARY OF SEAPLANE BASE AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECASTS, 2003-2024 The Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Update Operations 2003 2009 2014 2019 2024 Commercial Service Turboprop General Aviation Single Engine TOTAL OPERATIONS 4,600 4,600 4,000 4,000 8,600 601 7,998 5,600 4,700 4,700 4,310 4,310 9,010 631 8,379 5,945 4,800 4,800 4,586 4,586 9,386 657 8,729 6,248 4,900 4,900 4,880 4,880 9,780 685 9,095 6,566 5,000 5,000 5,192 5,192 10,192 713 9,479 6,901 Local Operations Itinerant Operations Passenger Enplanements Source: Barnard Dunkelberg & Company. Friday Harbor Airport & Seaplane Base Master Plan Draft Report/October 2006 B.32