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					                       Overview
•Characteristics: Participation, Principles and
Cooptation (Assistance and Cultural Diplomacy)
•Motivations: Reassurance, Diplomatic Influence,
Isolating Taiwan, and Hedging Risk
•Obstacles: Economic Pressures, Contradictions in the
4th Ring, Other Major Powers, and Conflicting Priorities

                                                           1
2
                              Personnel
2500

2000

1500

                                                      Personnel
1000
                                                      Linear (Personnel)

500

  0
       2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
-500

                                                                           3
Mission    Country        Chinese     Mission   China’s Share
           /Area          Personnel   Total
MINURSO    Western        11          224       4.9%
           Sahara
MINUSTAH   Haiti          142         9087      1.6%

MONUC      Congo          234         20573     1.1%
UNAMID     Sudan-Darfur   324         21800     1.5%

UNIFIL     Lebanon        344         11504     3%
UNMIL      Liberia        581         10427     5.6%
UNMIS      Sudan          467         10541     4.4%
UNMIT      Timor-Leste    24          1521      1.6%

UNOCI      Cote D‟Voire   7           8544      .08%

UNTSO      Middle East    3           153       1.9%

                                                                4
                                Personnel

Bangladesh
  Pakistan
     India
   Nigeria
     Egypt
    Nepal
    Ghana
    Jordan                                                    Personnel
   Rwanda
  Uruguay
  Ethiopia
      Italy
   Senegal
    China

              0   2000   4000   6000   8000   10000   12000


                                                                          5
                                Personnel

      China
South Africa
     France
  Indonesia
   Morocco
      Brazil
      Benin
      Spain
                                                            Personnel
   Malaysia
 Philippines
   Tanzania
   Sri Lanka
    Zambia
Burkina Faso
      Kenya

               0   500   1000          1500   2000   2500



                                                                        6
              The Rest of the P5:

 Russian   Federation: #42 (359)

 United   Kingdom: #46 (275)

 United   States of America: #71 (86)



                                         7
     The Five Principles of Peaceful
     Coexistence (1954):

1.    Mutual respect for territorial integrity
      and sovereignty
2.    Mutual non-aggression
3.    Mutual non-interference in internal
      affairs
4.    Equality and mutual benefit
5.    Peaceful co-existence
                                                 8
 Relations should be based on the 5
  Principles of Peaceful Coexistence
 In economics, countries should open up,
  eliminate inequalities, and seek common
  prosperity
 All countries should promote mutual
  understanding through dialogue and
  cooperation, and seek the settlement of
  divergences and disputes through
  peaceful means.
                                            9
“China is marking a path for other nations
around the world who are trying to figure
out not simply how to develop their
countries, but also how to fit into the
international order in a way that allows them
to be truly independent, to protect their way
of life and political choices in a world with a
single massively powerful centre of gravity.”
          --Joshua Cooper Ramo

                                                  10
“Many people are trying to offer prescriptions for
 Africa's development, such as the "Washington
 Consensus" or the "Beijing Model." Yet it seems
 to me that Africa's development should be based
 on its own conditions and should follow its own
 path, that is, the African Model. All countries
 have to learn from other countries' experience in
 development. At the same time, they have to
 follow a path suited to their own national
 conditions and based on the reality of their own
 countries.”
            --Wen Jiabao, FOCAC, Nov. 11, 2009


                                                     11
President Hu Jintao Visits Confucius Institute
in Nairobi, Kenya, April 2006
                                                 12
The Takoradi-
Sekondi
Stadium,
Ghana,
financed by a
$275 Million
PRC loan,
2006.

                13
 Send 100 Chinese agricultural experts to Africa, and
  set up 100 agricultural demonstration sites
 Establish a China-Africa Development Fund of $5
  Billion to support Chinese firms investing in Africa
 Increase # of items exported to China under no-tariff
  rules from 190 to 440
 Double development assistance by 2009
 Provide $3 Billion in preferential loans in the next
  three years
 Cancel interest-free loans due by 2005 for poorest
  countries
 Train 15,000 professionals in next three years
 Set up 100 rural schools
 Build 10 hospitals and run 30 anti-malaria clinics


                                                          14
                Confucius Institutes: Goals
1.   Chinese language teaching.
2.   Training for Chinese language instructors.
3.   Chinese language teaching resources.
4.   Administration of the HSK (Chinese Proficiency
     Test) examination and tests for the Certification
     of the Chinese Language Teachers.
5.   Providing information and consultative services
     concerning China‟s education, culture, and
     other areas.
6.   Conducting language and cultural exchange
     activities between China and other countries.

                                                         15
Region                     Countries                          # of Institutes*
North America              U.S., Canada                       36
Asia-Pacific               17                                 59
Europe                     23                                 67
Middle East                Pakistan, Lebanon, Turkey,         6
                           Israel, Egypt
Africa                     Zimbabwe, Kenya, Rwanda,           11
                           Madagascar, South Africa,
                           Nigeria, Cameroon
Latin America              Mexico, Colombia                   6

* Established or planned as of 2007.
Source: James F. Paradise, “China and International Harmony: The Role of
Confucius Institutes in Bolstering Beijing‟s Soft Power, Asian Survey, Vol. 49
No. 4, 2009.
                                                                                 16
                              Number
6000

5000

4000

3000
                                                 Number
2000

1000

  0
         2005          2006        2008   2012

       *2012: planned as of 2010
                                                          17
“On the African continent criticism is mounting as
 more and more local opinion leaders associate
 the People‟s Republic‟s economic aspirations
 with „neo-colonialism‟ and „imperialism‟. Even
 politicians no longer withhold their criticism.
 The discussion about a new colonial policy does
 not come as a surprise. After all, the People‟s
 Republic is now at the stage where in the past
 other industrial superpowers decided to provide
 themselves with colonies or fiefdoms alike.”
     --Jonathan Holslag (2007)


                                                     18
China‟s
economic
presence in
Sub-
Saharan
Africa, from
Holslag
(2007)




               19
120

100

 80

 60
                                             Unfavorable
 40
                                             Favorable
 20

  0




      Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project
                                                           20
100
 90
 80
 70
 60
 50
 40                                     Unfavorable
 30                                     Favorable
 20
 10
  0




      Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project
                                                      21
China‟s UN
Ambassador Wang
Guangya vetoes a
Western-sponsored
resolution on Myanmar
in January, 2007.




                        22
Date           Issue                       Vote (Yes-No-Abstain)
March 1993     Tibet (No Action)           27-15-10
March 1993     Human rights (No Action)    22-17-12
March 1994     Tibet (No Action)           17-6-2 (Sub-Commission)
March 1994     Human rights (No Action)    20-16-17
March 1995     Human Rights (No Action)    22-22-9
March 1995     Human Rights                21-20-12
               (Substantive Resolution)
April 1996     Human Rights (No Action)    27-20-6
April 1997     Human Rights (No Action)    27-17-9



       Source: Rosemary Foot, Rights Beyond Borders, pp. 171-8
                                                                     23
    Myanmar (2007)              Zimbabwe (2008)
        9-3-3                        9-5-1

No: China, Russia, S.       No: China, Russia, Libya,
 Africa                      S. Africa, Vietnam

Abstain: Congo,             Abstain: Indonesia
 Indonesia, Qatar
                            Yes: Belgium, Burkina
Yes: Belgium, France,         Faso, Costa Rica,
  Ghana, Italy, Panama,       Croatia, France, Italy,
  Peru, Slovakia, UK, USA     Panama, UK, USA

                                                        24
   “Sudan commended China for its indivisibility of human
    rights, through its inclusion of social, cultural rights and the
    right to development as well as political and civil rights.”
   “The Islamic Republic of Iran commended China‟s strong
    commitment to human rights, welcoming its openness in
    addressing human rights issues, as well as its impressive
    economic development during the last three decades.”
   “Canada expressed deep concern about reports of
    arbitrary detention of ethnic minorities members, including
    Tibetans, Uighurs and Mongols as well as religious
    believers, including Falun Gong practitioners, without
    information about their charges, their location and
    wellbeing.”


                                                                       25
States Recognizing Taiwan: 23
States Recognizing the PRC: 171
18 States that have switched from ROC to PRC
 since 1990 (16 in the 4th Ring):
 Bahamas, Central African Republic, Chad,
 Costa Rica, Dominica, Grenada, Guinea-
 Bissau, Lesotho, Liberia, Macedonia, Malawi,
 Niger, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, South Africa,
 South Korea, Tonga, Vanuatu.
                                                26
Grenada‟s new $40 Million cricket stadium, funded by China in
2004 when Grenada switched its recognition away from Taiwan.

                                                                27
Nelson Mandela
and the Dalai
Lama in Cape
Town, S. Africa,
in 1996. In 2009,
the Dalai Lama
was denied a
visa to attend a
pre-World Cup
conference in
that country.


                    28
“China‟s hedging behavior stems from its
 general foreign policy goals of maximizing
 its influence, leverage, and freedom of
 action while pursuing economic
 development to facilitate its reemergence
 as a great power. China naturally seeks to
 minimize other nations‟ ability to constrain
 its pursuit of these goals. More specifically,
 Beijing‟s hedging strategy is driven by a
 deep uncertainty about its international
 security environment...”
      --Evan Medeiros (2005)
                                                  29
30
“It‟s one thing to say that the Beijing
consensus of authoritarian rapid growth is
attractive to Zimbabwe…but when it comes
to Europe or North America, that‟s where
China starts to lose the soft power. Human
rights violations, absence of democracy—
these are hurting China in its efforts to build
its soft power. So ironically when you get to
this issue of economic policies, while they
attract some, they repel others.”
          --Joseph Nye (2006)

                                                  31
120

100

 80

 60
                                             Unfavorable
 40
                                             Favorable
 20

  0




      Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project

                                                           32
33
     U.S. Foreign Grants and Credits by Region,
     2000 and 2008
Region            2000                     2008
Europe            $2.649 Billion           $2.139 Billion
Africa            $1.058 Billion           $4.58 Billion
Latin America     $1.621 Billion           $2.02 Billlion
Middle East       $4.35 Billlion           $10.8 Billion

                  Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis




                                                             34
100
 90
 80
 70
 60
 50
 40                                          China
 30                                          U.S.
 20
 10
  0




      Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project
                                                     35
China‟s Top 10 Trade Partners (2008)
Rank   Country/Region Volume (Millions)   % Change
1      United States   $333.7             10.5
2      Japan           $266.8             13.0
3      Hong Kong       $203.7             3.3
4      South Korea     $186.1             16.2
5      Taiwan          $129.2             3.8
6      Germany         $115.0             22.2
7      Australia       $59.7              36.1
8      Russia          $56.8              18.0
9      Malaysia        $53.5              15.2
10     Singapore       $52.4              10.5

                                                     36
“After 1978 and with increasing clarity into
 the 1990s, China desired to be accepted
 as a responsible power qualified to be
 admitted by the international
 community… Achievement of this
 respectability was not facilitated by close
 association with [Iran]….”
     --John Garver (2006), pg. 292


                                               37
38
          China‟s Voting Behavior on Darfur-Related
              Resolutions (Selected), 2004-2008
Date       Resolution   Action                     China’s Vote
7/30/04    1556         Arms embargo               Abstention
3/29/05    1591         Expands Arms embargo       Abstention
3/31/05    1593         ICC referral               Abstention
8/31/06    1706         Expands UNMIS to include   Abstention
                        Darfur
7/31/07    1769         Establishes UNAMID         Yes
7/31/08    1828         Extends UNAMID‟s mandate   Yes




                                                                  39
Characteristics              Motivations                   Obstacles
•Participation, e.g. in UN   •Reassurance to states        •Growth imperatives
Peacekeeping                 that fear exploitation        generate new problems
•Principles: Support for     and negative                  that must be addressed
Sovereignty and Refusal      externalities of China‟s      •Contradictions within
to Dictate Models to         economic behavior             the 4th ring: appeasing
Developing Countries         •Diplomatic support in        Europe vs. supporting
•Cooptation:                 multilateral negotiations     „pariah states‟
Development                  •Isolation of Taiwan          •Presence and activities
Assistance (grants,          (though currently on          of other major powers
loans, relief);              hold); Tibet                  •Competing political
Educational and              •Political capital that can   priorities, such as non-
Cultural Diplomacy           be used over the long-        proliferation and
(Confucius Institutes,       term to weather               positive ties with the
Scholarships)                unforeseen problems           U.S. and others


                                                                                      40
   Scenario A: Power Transition. China is able to
    accomplish most of its goals, and will emerge as the
    dominant external power in the developing world.
   Scenario B: Retrenchment. China‟s ability diminishes
    as challenges mount; the U.S. (India, etc.) ascends;
    China‟s presence will decline and it will again
    choose self-sufficiency.
   Scenario C: Contested Growth: China will
    accomplish many of its goals, but will have to make
    tradeoffs and set realistic objectives for what it can
    accomplish in a competitive environment.


                                                             41

				
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