Federal Aviation Administration
2009 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts
2009 Commercial GSO Demand Forecast
21 May 2009
Kevin Reyes
FAA Commercial Space Transportation (AST) and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) May 2009
Director, Business Development Boeing Launch Services kevin.reyes@boeing.com
Cover art by John Sloan/FAA
GSO FORECAST AGENDA
• • • • • • • • • • • Forecast Summary Working Group Market Description Methodology Forecast Sensitivities Demand Forecast Launch Forecast 2008-2009 Totals Comparison Operator Assessments Trends Summary
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2009 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast
2009 GSO Demand Summary
Average 20.8
Average 15.7
2009-2018 commercial GSO satellite and launch demand forecast decreased by 1 from 2008
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Working Group Members
Gwynne Shotwell
(2008 & 2009 GSO Forecast Chair)
SpaceX Boeing FAA AST Aerospace Corp. Boeing United Launch Alliance
Kevin Reyes
(2009 GSO Forecast Deputy Chair)
John Sloan Lisa Hague Jozsef Lore Veronica Johnson
Alan Keisner
David Keslow Chris Kunstadter Tom Monroe Jennifer Micelli Peter Stier Jeanne Beesley Beth King Deborah Facktor Lepore
2009 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast
SpaceX
Orbital XL Insurance SS/L Tecolote Research / USAF / SMC / MV Sea Launch Boeing Lockheed Martin Air Launch
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GSO Methodology
• Information requested of ~ 90 launch providers, satellite manufacturers & operators
21 companies responded in 2009 (29 in 2008)
• Individual & comprehensive responses • Int’l competitive procurements only
• Sort satellites by mass categories
Small Medium Large -
< 2,500 kg 2,500 to 4,200 kg 4,200 to 5,400 kg
Extra Large -
> 5,400 kg
• Assign satellite demand to launchers
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GSO Methodology
Cont.
• Questionnaire on factors affecting their satellite procurement plans
13 satellite operators responded in 2009 (17 in 2008)
• 6 operators responded in both 2008 & 2009 • 7 new responders in 2009
• Near term manifest • Long term forecast
(2009-2011) (2012-2018)
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GSO Forecast Sensitivities
• Several factors identified that impact launch forecast
Satellite-Related issues Launch Vehicle-Related issues
Weather
Plan performance Funding Regulatory
Schedule-Related issues
• Dual-Manifesting
• Realization factor developed for sensitivities
Maximum and Minimum Variations of actual launches vs.
forecasted demand
Calculated over 5-year rolling period
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2009 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast
GSO Satellite Demand Forecast
35 30 25
Historical 1st Yr Forecast Near-Term Manifest Long-Term Demand Forecast
Satellites
20 15 10 5 0
Historical 1st Year Satellite Demand Forecast 2009 Satellite Demand Forecast Actual Satellites Launched
Actual
= Expected Realization
1993 1994
1995 1996
1997 1998
1999 2000
2001 2002
2003 2004
2005 2006
2007 2008
2009 2010
2011 2012
2013 2014
2015 2016
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Year
2017 2018
8
GSO Satellite Demand Forecast
Mass Category
30
Actual
25
NearTerm Manifest
Long-Term Forecast
# Satellites Launched
20
> 5.4 t
15 10 5 0
4.2 - 5.4 t
2.5 - 4.2 t
< 2.5 t
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Year
2009 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast
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2018
GSO Launch Forecast
25 Actuals NearTerm Manifest Long-Term Demand Forecast
20
Number of Launches
15
10
5
Dual Manifest Launches Single Manifest Launches
0
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Year
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2018
10
2008-2009 GSO Forecast Total Comparison
Parameter 2008 Forecast (2008-2017) 2009 Forecast (2009-2018)
# S Satellites
# M Satellites # L Satellites
25
64 72
17
74 57
# XL Satellites
Total # Satellites Total # Launches
57
218 162
60
208 157
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Satellite Operator Assessment
Significant Negative Impact
Regional or global economic conditions
Some Negative Impact
No Effect
Some Positive Impact
Significant Positive Impact
Compared to 2008
0% 8% 15% 23% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 8%
77% 23% 15% 46% 23% 15% 38% 8% 38% 15%
23% 23% 69% 8% 46% 77% 54% 54% 38% 46%
0% 38% 0% 23% 31% 8% 8% 31% 15% 23%
0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 8% 8% 8%
Demand for satellite services
Ability to compete with terrestrial services Availability of financing Availability of affordable insurance Consolidation of service providers Increasing satellite life times Availability of satellite systems that meet your requirements Reliability of satellite systems Availability of launch vehicles that meet your requirements Reliability of launch systems Ability to obtain required export licenses Ability to obtain required operating licenses
0%
0% 8%
31%
15% 15%
46%
69% 69%
23%
8% 8%
0%
8% 0%
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GSO Trends • Long-Term Satellite Forecast
Relatively stable in the near term
• Satellites – flat to slight decrease • Launch demand – slight decrease • Satellite mass – slight increase • Transponders per satellite – slight increase
Relatively consistent average in the long term
• Launch demand – flat (~15 launches/yr) • Satellites – flat (~20 satellites/yr)
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GSO Forecast Summary
• 2009 satellite demand of 27 planned for 21 launches
Combination of single and dual manifest
• 2010 satellite demand of 21 planned for 16 launches
Combination of single and dual manifest
• Projected average annual demand (2009-2018)
20.8 satellites 15.7 launches
• Other factors identified may affect launchers
New launch vehicle entrants
Dual manifest launches Hosted payloads ITAR free satellites
• Operator assessments negative compared to 2008
Some responder changes from 2008 survey Uncertain economic conditions
Reliability of launchers/satellites
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