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Dave’s Forecast Update
Dave Jasinski
UMCES/CBPO
TMAW - 5/3/2007
Predicting Chl-a
• Malone (1992) found a significant relationship
between 1 month lagged Susquehanna river
flow and mesohaline mainstem chl-a
Chl-a = 0.03 + 1.43(Qf)
r2=0.71 p<0.01
Qf = lagged Susq flow
Could not reproduce result
p<0.001
1985-1988 water column integrated mean monthly chla mass for the mesohaline
Mainstem vs previous month mean daily flow (CFS)
1985-2006
p<0.001
1985-2006 water column integrated mean monthly chla mass for the mesohaline
Mainstem vs previous month mean daily flow (CFS)
Chla forecasting
• Looking at individual months, segments,
seasons weakened the relationship
• No significant relationship with surface
values only
• Next step will look at seasonal CHLA vs
total flows as well as using interpolated
CHLA mass.
River loads and forecast time-line
• Joel Blomquist is new loads guru
• Jan-April fall line loads calculated by May
8th
• Can develop Pax and Rapp anoxia
forecasts and prelim mainstem anoxia
forecast with this
• Jan-May will be available ~June 8th and
will then be able to do final Mainstem
anoxic, Hypoxic and Potomac anoxic
Anoxic Volume, km3
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
30,000,000
2002
40,000,000
Jan-May
50,000,000
60,000,000
Anoxic Volume, km3 Algal Index _
70,000,000
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
2005
20000000
2002
80,000,000
30000000
R2 = 0.756
40000000
y = 3E-08x - 0.4822
90,000,000
Jan-April
50000000
1993
100,000,000
60000000
Algal Index
2005
70000000
2
80000000
R = 0.7072
y = 3E-08x - 0.1817
90000000
1993
100000000
Currently working on
• Estimating `06-`07 point source loads
based on addition of `05 data
• Investigating anoxic volume bias from new
interpolator
Example of point source data
Northern Point Source TN
10000000
9000000
8000000
7000000
6000000
5000000
4000000
3000000
2000000
1000000
0 Northern Point Source TP
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
500000
450000
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Interpolator issue
Image 1 – Old Image 2 – New Image 3 – New
interpolator output interpolator output interpolator output (2
with vertically with vertically nearest neighbor) with
interpolated station interpolated station vertically interpolated
data data station data
Other Forecasts
• Scavia is on track, I just need to get him some
data.
• Ping needs - 1) DO, chlorophyll, temperature
monitoring data (2006 – present) from the main
stem and down-streams of tributaries, 2) fall line
flows (until present month!!!!) for major
tributaries, 2) TN and TP concentration
(observed, not from the ESTIMATOR) since
2005 for major tributaries, and 3) Point source
TN and TP loads (2005, 2006) from the 9 major
basins/tributaries.
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