2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
Tim Drum Senior Meteorologist WeatherBug Professional Services tdrum@weatherbug.com
April 2, 2009
Hurricane Ike, NOAA
Review of 2008 Season Forecast
2008 Season Forecast
Forecast Numbers:
• • • • 10-12 named Storms
16 8 5 164%
4-6 Tropical Storms should reach Hurricane status 2-4 Hurricanes of Major Category III classification
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTCA) near 100% of normal
2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season
General Overview
2009 Atlantic Basin Names
Ana Danny Grace Joaquin Mindy Peter Teresa Bill Erika Henri Kate Nicholas Rose Victor Claudette Fred Ida Larry Odette Sam Wanda
Atlantic Basin T.C. Distribution
Atlantic Basin Averages
Current State of the Atlantic Basin
SST Anomalies – Atlantic 3/28/09
Slightly cooler than average
Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation
Still midway through projected WARM ocean phase that is expected to last ~ 10 more years.
Current State of EPAC ENSO Cycle
ENSO Cycle El Nino Example - 1997 La Nina Example - 1988
Latest Weekly ENSO SST Anomaly
???
Forecast SST Anomalies - EPAC
Climatology of Comparable Seasons
Establishing Data Set Method
Going back to 1950, look at a weak La Nina followed by a neutral or weak El Nino.
Focus on the seasons from above that also occurred during the “warm” phase of the AMO
Weak La Nina To Neutral Years(ONI)
Averages:
• 10.5 Storms (10.1) • 6.2 Hurricanes (5.9)
• 2.5 Major Hurricanes (2.5)
Weak La Nina + Warm AMO Years
Averages:
• 11.2 Storms (10.1) • 6.6 Hurricanes (5.9)
• 3.6 Major Hurricanes (2.5)
Other Factors to Consider
African Dust
Played a significant role in mitigating tropical cyclone development in 2006 & 2007 and part of 2008.
African Rainfall
Near average rainfall forecast over the northern Sahel region may lead to dust “outbreaks” again, this season.
The Forecast
Summary of Forecast Points
La Nina conditions in EPAC to weaken, especially for the second half of the season.
Statistics from previous near neutral ENSO + AMO years weigh heavily toward reduced activity from last year.
Conditions over western Africa mean additional dust outbreaks over the central and eastern tropical Atlantic.
2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
11-13 named storms 6-8 hurricanes
(10.1 avg.)
(5.9 avg.) (2.5 avg.)
3-4 major hurricanes: winds 111+ mph Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTCA): near 130% of normal.
CME Group Hurricane Contracts
• 3 Different types of Hurricane Contracts • 6 Different locations for Hurricane Contracts
• Event Futures, Options, Event Binary Options
– Based upon named Hurricanes making landfall anywhere in the
Eastern US or reaching the CHI-Cat-in-a-box Galveston-Mobile area
• Seasonal Futures, Options, Seasonal Binary Options
– Based upon the accumulated CHI value for all Hurricanes that
make landfall within a specific season
• Seasonal Maximum Futures, Options, Seasonal
Maximum Binary Options, Seasonal Maximum 2nd Event Binary Options
– Based on the CHI value of the largest Hurricane to make landfall
within a specific season
CME Group Hurricane Contract Locations
• Gulf Coast • Florida FL) • Southern Atlantic Coast • Northern Atlantic (NC/VA Border to Eastport, ME) (Brownsville TX to AL/FL Border) (AL/FL Border to Fernandina Beach, (Fernandina Beach, FL to NC/VA Border)
Coast
• Eastern US • Gulf & Florida FL) (Brownsville, TX to Eastport, ME) (Brownsville, TX to Fernandina Beach,
• CHI-Cat-in-a-Box
(Galveston-Mobile area)
CME Group Hurricane Contract Specifications
Standard Contracts:
• • Contract: $1000 times the respective CME Hurricane Index Tick Size: 0.1 CHI Index Point
•
• •
Tick Value: 0.1 CHI Index point which equals $100
Hours: Sunday through Thursday from 5.00p.m. to 3.15p.m. Chicago time Available: Throughout the hurricane season from January 1 through December 31
Binary Contracts:
• • • • Contract: $10,000 times the respective CME Hurricane Index Tick Value: 0.01 CHI Index point which equals $1 Hours: Sunday through Thursday from 5.00p.m. to 3.15p.m. Chicago time Available: Throughout the hurricane season from January 1 through December 31