Riverside County Economic Forecast

Reviews

Tags

Riverside County Economic Forecast, Riverside County, Economic Development Agency, the Riverside, county economic development, County of Riverside, Inland Empire, Palm Springs, Riverside, CA, Coachella Valley

Stats

views:: 3
rating:: not rated
reviews:: 0
posted:: 8/13/2009
language:: English
pages:: 0

Public Domain

Riverside County Economic Forecast Riverside County is the fourth largest county in the state in terms of total land area. The county, along with its neighbor to the north, San Bernardino County, comprise the Inland Empire. The Inland Empire is the fastest growing region of the state, and among the fastest growing metro areas in the nation. Riverside County has a population of 1.88 million people, and there are 550,000 wage and salary jobs located in the county. The per capita income in the county is $25,527, and the average salary per worker is $38,560. Economic growth in the composite Southern California area was impressive in 2004, compared to the northern half of the state. Much of the growth in Southern California took place in the Inland Empire. Last year over 23,000 total jobs were created in Riverside County, which represents an outstanding growth rate of 4.4 percent. Non-farm employment growth was slightly higher at 4.8 percent last year. The unemployment rate dropped to 5.8 percent. The principal sectors that are producing jobs in Riverside County are business services, construction, retail trade, and leisure and hospitality. The recreation and leisure services sector is creating more job opportunities as population growth continues to swell in the Inland Empire. The manufacturing sector is growing again, after three ﬂat years. The durable manufacturing sector reached an all time record employment level in 2004. The population continues to grow at annual average rates exceeding 3 percent in Riverside County. The Coachella Valley (Indio, Banning, Beaumont) is adding population rapidly, as is Murietta, Perris, and Temecula. Population and employment are expected to grow at healthy rates in Riverside County over the next several years. The Inland Empire is in a position to dominate growth in California for the remainder of the decade. thousands of jobs 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 �� 1990 - 2025 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 constant 2004 dollars per person 46,000 42,000 38,000 34,000 30,000 26,000 22,000 90 95 Real Per Capita Personal Income 1990 - 2025 California Riverside County 00 05 forecast 10 15 20 25 Forecast Highlights • Job growth is forecast to cool in 2005, but remain high at 3.7 percent. Over the next ﬁve years, the annual growth rate is expected to average 3.0 percent per year. • Average salaries adjusted for inﬂation are currently below the California state average, and will remain so over the foreseeable future. Real average salaries are forecast to rise an average of 1.2 percent per year over the next 5 years. • Over the next ﬁve years, the momentum for employment growth remains in services, especially health care services which support the aging population, information services, and professional and technical services. Each of these three sectors is forecast to grow 20 percent or more between 2005 and 2010. • The population will continue to grow at a rapid rate in the county. Annual growth in the 2005 to 2010 period is expected to average 3.7 percent per year. • Over the next ﬁve years net migration is expected to decline from the healthy levels observed in 2004, but still average 58,600 net migrants per year. • Population growth is forecast to exceed income growth for the remainder of the decade. Real per capita incomes are expected to decline 0.1 percent in 2005, and 0.3 percent per year through 2010. • Industrial production is forecast to increase by 3.7 percent in 2005. Over the next ﬁve years the growth rate of industrial production is expected to increase, averaging gains of 5.1 percent per year. 1 Riverside County Economic Forecast 1995-2004 History, 2005-2025 Forecast Net Population Migration (people) (people) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1,401,600 1,427,100 1,459,000 1,489,700 1,514,600 1,559,079 1,622,179 1,686,571 1,767,485 1,846,095 1,925,928 2,005,133 2,083,933 2,161,738 2,236,281 2,308,951 2,382,709 2,458,217 2,533,278 2,605,385 2,674,386 2,739,723 2,801,784 2,862,437 2,924,405 2,987,065 3,050,482 3,114,399 3,179,191 3,245,330 3,311,708 13,078 13,422 19,476 18,467 36,250 32,364 50,491 51,621 66,145 62,473 62,723 61,675 61,015 59,835 56,412 54,377 55,311 56,908 56,317 53,243 50,048 46,332 43,046 41,672 43,062 43,875 44,806 45,536 46,702 48,404 49,061 Registered Vehicles (millions) 0.99 1.01 0.96 1.04 1.10 1.18 1.26 1.34 1.39 1.46 1.53 1.61 1.68 1.76 1.83 1.91 1.99 2.05 2.11 2.16 2.21 2.24 2.27 2.29 2.30 2.31 2.31 2.32 2.35 2.39 2.43 Households (thousands) 448 453 458 464 473 506 516 531 549 572 599 627 655 683 710 736 763 791 819 846 872 897 921 945 969 994 1,019 1,044 1,069 1,095 1,122 New Homes Total Taxable Personal Real Per Inﬂation Rate Real Farm Permitted Sales Income Capita Income (% change Crop Value (homes) (billions) (billions) (dollars) in CPI) (millions) 6,946 7,499 9,784 12,493 14,579 15,410 19,005 22,664 30,361 33,946 33,609 33,415 32,837 32,423 31,075 31,599 33,264 33,511 31,841 30,843 29,759 28,883 28,400 28,662 29,936 29,478 30,088 29,903 30,690 31,201 31,278 $10.3 $11.1 $12.0 $13.1 $15.1 $17.0 $18.2 $19.5 $21.7 $24.0 $27.1 $29.6 $31.9 $34.2 $36.6 $39.0 $41.5 $44.1 $46.7 $49.3 $52.1 $54.8 $57.5 $60.2 $63.0 $65.7 $68.4 $71.3 $74.4 $77.5 $80.8 $26.2 $27.6 $29.3 $32.1 $34.1 $37.0 $39.8 $42.1 $44.0 $47.1 $50.3 $53.7 $57.0 $60.4 $63.5 $66.9 $70.5 $74.2 $78.0 $81.8 $85.9 $89.9 $94.0 $98.3 $103.1 $107.7 $112.6 $117.7 $123.2 $128.7 $134.1 $23,353 $23,715 $24,250 $25,648 $26,182 $26,738 $26,728 $26,444 $25,739 $25,527 $25,507 $25,515 $25,446 $25,370 $25,237 $25,142 $25,029 $24,895 $24,701 $24,548 $24,408 $24,278 $24,189 $24,157 $24,173 $24,134 $24,137 $24,122 $24,123 $24,098 $24,017 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.4 2.3 3.3 3.4 2.8 2.6 3.3 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.4 1,453 1,402 1,314 1,428 1,393 1,181 1,226 1,127 1,103 1,031 970 917 872 832 796 764 734 707 681 657 634 611 590 569 548 527 507 487 468 448 429 Real Industrial UnemployProduction ment Rate (billions) (percent) 3.9 4.2 4.8 5.4 6.2 7.0 6.0 6.2 6.8 7.4 7.7 7.9 8.3 8.8 9.3 9.8 10.5 11.2 11.7 12.1 12.5 12.7 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.4 9.5 8.2 7.5 6.6 5.4 5.5 5.2 6.1 6.1 5.8 5.6 5.8 5.9 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.8 percent change 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Population Growth 1990 - 2025 inmigrants minus outmigrants �� 1990 - 2025 85,000 75,000 65,000 55,000 45,000 35,000 25,000 15,000 5,000 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 2 Riverside County Employment Forecast 1995-2004 History, 2005-2025 Forecast Total Wage Manufac- Transportation Wholesale & Financial Professional Health & & Salary Farm Construction turing & Utilities Retail Trade Activities Services Information Education Leisure Government -------------------------------------------------------------------------------employment ( thousands of jobs)--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 355.3 366.3 388.4 412.2 441.6 466.5 484.3 508.9 526.7 549.9 570.3 589.6 609.1 628.5 644.1 661.9 682.1 701.2 717.6 732.6 746.8 759.7 772.0 785.9 802.8 817.6 834.0 849.8 867.2 885.1 901.6 17.3 16.9 17.4 17.5 17.3 17.6 16.7 16.2 17.1 15.9 15.7 15.6 15.5 15.4 15.4 15.3 15.2 15.2 15.1 15.1 15.0 15.0 14.9 14.9 14.8 14.8 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.6 14.5 24.3 26.0 30.4 36.4 43.7 48.4 53.4 55.0 59.8 67.0 70.9 74.2 76.3 77.3 76.4 77.3 78.5 79.1 79.3 79.5 80.1 80.2 79.2 78.8 80.4 80.5 82.5 82.9 85.0 87.0 87.3 36.9 38.7 42.9 46.5 49.4 51.8 50.6 49.8 49.8 51.5 52.6 53.2 53.2 53.2 53.8 54.5 56.2 57.5 57.7 57.4 56.4 55.3 54.4 53.4 52.7 52.0 51.5 51.0 50.6 50.7 51.2 7.3 7.5 8.0 8.9 10.2 10.2 10.5 10.8 11.1 12.0 12.2 12.6 13.2 14.0 14.6 15.1 15.8 16.7 17.3 17.7 18.2 18.6 19.1 19.8 20.6 21.5 22.2 23.0 23.8 24.6 25.5 58.6 59.8 62.5 65.4 69.7 73.5 77.5 82.5 85.7 90.4 94.8 99.5 103.8 108.3 113.0 117.7 122.2 126.6 131.0 135.2 139.3 143.4 147.4 151.3 155.2 158.9 162.7 166.4 170.2 173.9 177.7 14.5 14.4 14.1 14.8 15.7 16.0 16.8 17.6 19.0 20.2 21.5 22.2 22.5 22.6 22.8 23.1 23.5 24.0 24.3 24.6 25.0 25.3 25.7 26.0 26.4 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.8 28.2 28.7 28.9 30.0 32.7 35.9 37.9 42.2 42.5 46.5 50.9 55.2 59.2 61.1 64.9 69.0 72.3 76.3 80.8 85.1 88.7 91.8 94.5 96.4 98.4 100.2 102.2 104.1 105.9 107.8 109.6 111.4 113.3 5.56 5.54 4.94 5.44 5.53 5.78 6.31 6.57 6.45 6.40 6.74 7.17 7.54 7.86 8.13 8.31 8.45 8.59 8.73 8.82 8.85 8.85 8.84 8.82 8.82 8.85 8.89 8.94 8.99 9.04 9.12 34.5 36.5 39.1 41.6 42.7 44.0 45.3 49.6 51.6 52.4 55.2 56.8 59.3 62.3 64.7 67.1 69.3 71.4 73.5 75.8 78.1 80.5 83.1 86.1 89.3 92.2 95.1 98.3 101.3 104.3 107.2 46.7 47.4 49.7 50.4 54.5 55.4 57.3 59.2 60.7 64.1 66.7 68.9 71.0 73.4 75.2 76.8 78.1 79.4 80.6 81.8 83.0 84.1 85.4 86.8 88.2 89.5 90.7 92.0 93.4 94.7 96.1 67.8 69.9 72.2 73.9 78.2 84.1 89.3 96.6 96.0 96.0 95.7 97.1 100.0 102.3 105.0 107.2 110.2 113.4 116.4 119.4 122.3 125.2 128.3 131.7 135.5 139.1 142.7 146.5 150.3 154.3 158.0 thousands of jobs 60 �� 1990 - 2025 thousands of jobs 120 �� 1990 - 2025 110 55 50 45 40 35 30 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 3 percent change �� 1990 - 2025 thousands of vehicles Number of Registered Vehicles 1990 - 2025 13 10 7 4 1 -2 -5 -8 2,500 2,250 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 1,000 750 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 average annual percent change 16 �� 1990 - 2025 inflation adjusted index (1990=100) 600 500 400 300 200 100 Industrial and Farm Production Indices 1990 - 2025 12 8 4 0 -4 -8 -12 -16 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 Industrial Farm 0 90 95 00 forecast 05 10 15 20 25 units permitted 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 �� 1990 - 2025 thousands of constant 2004 dollars per worker Real Earnings Per Worker 1990 - 2025 56 52 48 44 40 36 32 90 95 00 Riverside County California forecast 05 10 15 20 25 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 4