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Transportation Revenue
Forecast Update
June 2008
Jerry Long HTC Staff and David Ward STC Staff
July 8, 2008
2007-09 State Transportation Funding
$7.2 Billion
Licenses, Permits, & Local Funding
Fees 1.2%
Federal Funding 13.8%
14.9% Driver Fees
2.3%
Other Income
1.8%
Fuel Tax
Interest 26.9%
0.9%
Vehicle Sales Tax
1.1%
Rental Car Tax
0.7% Bonds
31.0%
Ferry Fares Tolls
4.3% 1.1%
2
Fuel Price Projections
4. 50
4. 24 4. 28
3. 86
June 2008 Pessimistic Forecast
4. 00
4. 06 3. 74 3. 66
June 2008 Baseline
Cost per Gallon
3. 57 3. 48 3. 56 3. 58 3. 59 3. 59 3. 59 3. 60 3. 60
3. 44 3. 47 3. 50 3. 53
3. 50
3. 64 3. 21 3. 22
3. 34 3. 50 3. 18 3. 17 3. 19 3. 22 3. 22 3. 23 3. 23
3. 41 3. 13 3. 14 3. 15
3. 11 3. 30
3. 00
2. 88
2. 91 2. 93 2. 94 2. 96 2. 98 2. 99 2. 99 2. 99 2. 99 2. 99 2. 98
2. 89 2. 89 2. 91 2. 90 2. 89 2. 89
2. 64
2. 50
2. 12
February 2008 Forecast
2. 00
1. 83
1. 60 1. 58
1. 50
1. 43 1. 37
1. 00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Year
Baseline Forecast $615 Million reduction over 16 years
Pessimistic Forecast $1.057 Billion reduction over 16 years
Note: Combined state and local impact 3
4
5
June 2008 80%
$140 per barrel
6
Source: Energy Information Administration
Major Factors Leading to the Lower Forecasts
Higher actual and projected fuel prices. (Each $10 increase in crude
equals .25 cent increase in price.)
Slower projections for real personal income growth.
Softer vehicle sales than projected.
Slower abstract of driver record sales.
Slower economic growth and increased unemployment rates in both
Washington State and the U.S.
Higher refunds in estimated non-highway refunds for diesel fuel.
Ferry service disruptions.
7
Transportation Revenue Sources
Change From February 2008
(Dollars in Millions)
2007-09 2009-11 16 Years
Fuel Taxes ($70) ($106) ($615)
License, Permits and Fees ($8) ($15) ($107)
Ferry Fares ($7) ($9) ($59)
Toll Revenue ($2) ($7) ($17)
Aeronautics ($.1) $0 ($1)
Rental Car Tax $.2 ($2) ($8)
Vehicle Sales Tax ($5) ($8) ($17)
Driver Licenses & Fees ($1) ($3) ($15)
Miscellaneous Revenues $2 $1 $12
Total Revenues ($91) ($149) ($827)
8
Revenue Impacts on Major Accounts
(Dollars in Millions)
Account 2007-09 2009-11 16 Years
Motor Vehicle Account ($26) ($32) ($200)
Nickel Account ($9) ($15) ($84)
Partnership Account ($14) ($25) ($140)
Multimodal Account ($4) ($10) ($26)
Special Category C Account ($1) ($2) ($12)
Ferry Capital Account ($1) ($2) ($9)
Ferry Operations Account ($8) ($11) ($73)
Tacoma Narrows Bridge Account ($2) ($7) ($17)
State Patrol Highway Account ($4) ($8) ($54)
Highway/Motorcycle Safety/Aviation ($1) ($3) ($16)
Total State Accounts ($70) ($115) ($631)
TIB and CRAB Accounts ($7) ($12) ($67)
Cities and Counties ($13) ($22) ($128)
9
Does not include fuel tax refunds and transfers by account
Potential Risks to Future Revenues
Price of fuel in the future does not decrease and the price of crude
continues to rise.
Disruption in fuel supplies or lower than projected crude supplies.
Adoption of more aggressive CAFÉ standards.
Further decline in vehicle sales.
Sales of driver records continue to fall due to new driver monitoring
program.
Further erosion of personal income.
Higher than projected unemployment.
Ferry service disruptions.
10
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