AD-A255 400
Army Co'rps USN ( •
of Eninevrs Institute for Water ResourCs
A REVIEW OF 16 PLANNING AND FORECAST METHODOLOGIES
Used in U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Inland Navigation Studies
SEP 0 9 1992
DTIC ELECTE
i
.11
I-This
fofor public release and sole; its distiibution is unlimited.
ddiciment has been approved
June 1992
IWR Report 92-R-4
REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE
Form Approved
OM8 N 0,04-0188
•1. AGENCY USE ONLY (tee 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE
blank)
2
REPORT DATE
.3 REPORT TYPE
AND DATES COVERED 5. FUNDING NUMBERS
JJune
1992
A Review of 16 Planning and Forecast Methodologies Used U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Inland Navigation Studies
6. AUTHOR(S)
in
Grier,
David V.,
Skaggs,
L.
Leigh
7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADORESS(ES)
8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Water Resources Support Center for Water Resources Institute 7701 Telegraph Road, Casey Building
Belvoir, Ft. 9 SPONSORING VA 22060-5586 MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES)
REPORT NUMBER IWR Report 92-R-4
10. SPONSORING MONITORING AGENCY REPORT NUMBER
11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
•2a DISTRIBUTION
Unlimited/Unclassified
AVAILABILITY STATEMENT
12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE
13 ABSTRACT (Mamurn 200 words)
to develop procedures and guidelines R&D effort This manual is part of a larger The projections. for making consistent and systematic inland waterway traffic forecasting methodologies to review and assess traffic manual is purpose of this previously employed by project level and national level Corps of Engineers inland of data sources is the identification effort Inherent in this navigation studies. and commodity supply and demand forecasts. transportation, for economic,
14
SUBJECT TERMS
15. NUMBER OF PAGES
Review of forecast and methods, waterway transportation, data sources for economic, forecasts and demand
17 SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF REPORT 18 SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE
projections, traffic and commodity supply
19. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT
126 16 PRICE CODE
20 LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT
Unclassified
%S% 7540-0" 280 5500
Unclassified
Unclassified
Unlimited
Stardad ;,,m
t"~ '
98
~ Rev
2 89)
A REVIEW OF 16 PLANNING AND FORECAST METHODOLOGIES USED IN U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS INLAND NAVIGATION STUDIES
By David V. and L. Leigh Skaggs Grier
H I
.''A& , .. J T G• :, .b
,
.. ...... ..
,
S
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Water Resources Support Center for Water Resources Institute Fort Belvoir, Virginia 22060-5586
'U.
A
92-24838
June 1992 IWR-92-R-4
92.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This report is
part of a larger R&D effort to develop procedures and
guidelines for making consistent and systematic inland waterway traffic projections. The purpose of this report is to review and assess traffic
forecasting methodologies previously employed by project level and national level Corps of Engineers inland navigation studies. is the identification of data sources for economic, Inherent in this effort and
transportation,
commodity supply and demand forecasts.
Each of the 16 inland navigation studies reviewed is
in
some way unique, geographic that have
because individual waterway projects have unique physical features, locations, traffic mixes and patterns, However, economic hinterlands, etc.,
to be addressed.
the studies discussed still
exhibit enough into four broad
similarities to categorize their projection methodologies groups:
(1) the application of independently derived commodity-specific (2) shipper surveys of
annual growth rates to base year traffic levels;
existing and potential waterway users to determine future plans to ship by barge; (3)statistical analysis using regression and correlation to predict and, (4) a
future waterborne traffic based on independent economic variables;
detailed long-range commodity supply-demand and modal split analysis incorporating the production and consumption patterns of individual economic regions within the waterway hinterland. varies widely, as does the time, effort, The complexity of these methods and expense invested in each. The
general projection methodology and data sources incorporated in reviewed inland navigation studies are summarized in Table 33 in section of this report.
each of the the summary
Most analysts would agree that the projection methodologies employed in Corps navigation studies should not be judged solely on the basis of forecasting accuracy for the simple reason that every forecast contains some degree of error. forecast. A sound methodology does not necessarily ensure an accurate changes or unpredictable political, fiscal, or
Often macroeconomic
iii
meteorological events, "conventional wisdom."
for example, How, then,
can defy all the presumptions of should these methodologies be judged?
The answer depends on what kind of forecast the analyst requires: longterm or near-term; national, regional, or project-specific; definitive tonnage
estimates or projection "envelopes"; needs assessment or benefit calculations; or, investment strategies or in supplementing planning efforts. To develop
general guidelines with wide applicability,
the most practical methodology in
appears to be one that uses a consistent set of macroeconomic assumptions generating international, national, and regional level projections.
In turn,
these can be adapted by the Corps planners as a basic framework for further modifications derived from local knowledge and expertise, project level analysis. and applied in
Credibility would thus be enhanced by the uniformity individual
of national-level traffic totals and assumptions imbedded in project forecasts with overlapping time horizons. forecasting guidelines is is most practical if it
The development of general
incorporates a methodology that is
easily updatable based on the latest historic and forecast data, and is
relatively low cost for the project manager to implement, use on microcomputer
adaptable for
in a format available to any Corps planner.
The next phase of the waterway projection R&D effort will be to develop and document a projection methodology and to -oordinate project level with one or more divisions or districts. a field test at the The methodology will
be an attempt to synthesize national level commodity-driven projections developed for IWR's 1988 Inland Waterway Review with regional economic analysis and localized shipper/receiver data to develop specific forecasts. Also, IWR personnel will review software packages that have been r½;eloped for Several existing programs enable forecasting to b,. done with Some of these
forecasting.
limited data and/or provide techniques for risk analysis. software forecasting packages will be highlighted in
the f'llow-up report.
iv
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This document has been prepared as part of an Institute Resources
for Water A Final
Research & Developmco.t work unit on Planning Methodologies.
Report will present guidelines and recommendations transportation forecasts by commodity and waterway Grier,
for inland navigation in FY1992. The authors for
this report were David V. IWR Research Division. in
IWR Navigation Division,
and L.
Leigh Skaggs,
The authors gratefully acknowledge valuable assistance Shipla Patel and Jack Lane of the
completing this report from Dan Badger,
IWR Navigation Division.
V
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................
......................... ..........................
..
iii v ix xi
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .......................... LIST OF FIGURES .................. LIST OF TABLES ................... .......................... ..........................
INTRODUCTION ......................... REVIEW OF FORECASTS AND METHODS ................................. 1.
...........................
1 7
Lower Mississippi Region Comprehensive Study, Appendix J, Navigation, Lower Mississippi Region Comprehensive Study Coordinating Committee, 1974
.
.
.
2.
Comprehensive Master Plan for the Management of the Upper Mississippi River System, Appendix A: Navigation and Technical Report, Upper Mississippi River Basin Commission, October 1981 .. .......... Projections of Demand for Waterborne Transportation, Ohio River Basin 1980-2040, Study Summary, Ohio River Division, December 1980 ...... ............. Gallipolis Lock and Dam Replacement, Ohio River, Appendix L, Study Area Economic Base and Commodity Flow Analysis, Huntington District, Ohio River Division, April, 1980 .......... ................. Monongahela River Navigation System, Locks and Dams 7 and 8 Feasibility Study, Pittsburgh District, Ohio River Division, January 1984 ...... Lower Ohio River Navigation Feasibility Study IL-KY (Mouth to Cumberland River), Louisville District, Ohio River Division, August 1985, Revised November 19805 .......... ................. Kanawha River Navigation Study, Winfield Lock Replacement Interim Feasibility Report, Huntington District, Ohio River Division, September 1986 .....
9
3.
..
17
4.
..
26
5.
37
6.
..
44
7.
47
Vii
TABLE OF CONTENTS
(continued)
Page
8.
Forecast of Future Ohio River Basin Waterway Traffic 1986 - 2050, Volumes I and II, Navigation Planning Center, Huntington District, Ohio River Division, May 1990 ................. ....................... Supplement to the Environmental Impact Statement: Tennessee-Tombigbee Waterway, Alabama and Mississippi, Navigation, US Army Engineer Districts Mobile, Alabama, and Nashville, Tennessee, April, 1981 ......... ................ Operational Forecast for Initial Traffic on the Tennessee-Tombigbee Waterway, Mobile District, South Atlantic Division, August 1985 ..... ............ Interim Feasibility Report and Environmental Impact Statement for Oliver Lock Replacement, June 1983, and Reevaluation of the Oliver Lock Replacement Project, September 1985, Mobile District, South Atlantic Division ... ........... Bonneville Navigation Lock, Columbia River, Oregon/ Washington, General Design Memorandum, Volume 2 of 2, Appendixes, Portland District, North Pacific Division, September, 1984 ........ ............... Mississippi River Gulf Outlet New Lock and Connecting Channels, Feasibility Study Draft Report, New Orleans District, Lower Mississippi Valley Division, March, 1989 ....... ............. Montgomery Point Lock and Dam Feasibility Study, McClellan-Kerr Arkansas River Navigation System, Little Rock District, 1990 ....... .............. The National Waterways Study - A Framework for Decision Making - Final Report, U.S. Army Engineer Water Resources Support Center, institute for Water Resources, Report No. NWS-83-1, January 1983 ..... 1988 Inland Waterway Review, IWR Report 88-R-7, U.S. Army Engineer Institute for Water Resources, November 1988 ............ .. ................... .
53
9.
64
10.
..
67
11.
..
70
12.
..
72
13.
79
14.
82
15.
83
16.
92
SUMMARY
107
viii
LIST OF FIGURES
Page
I 2
HISTORIC AND PROJECTED TRAFFIC FOR GRAYS LANDING HISTORIC AND PROJECTED TRAFFIC FOR POINT MARION (L&D 8) ................. ....................... MONONGAHELA RIVER TRAFFIC PROJECTIONS
(L&D
7)
41
42
. .
3 4 5 6
NATHAN ADJUSTED
43 .. 49 50 .. 63
KANAWHA RIVER SYSTEM LOCK TRAFFIC 1940-2050 ........... KANAWHA RIVER SYSTEM COMMODITY TRAFFIC 1940-2050 OHIO RIVER SYSTEM TOTAL TRAFFIC ........ ............... ......
ix
LIST OF TABLES
Page
1
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED COMMERCE, LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION 1970-2020 ......................... .......................... NATIONAL WATERWAYS STUDY GROWTH RATES ........... ............
8 10
2 3
UNCONSTRAINED FLOWS BY LOCK AND COMMODITY, YEAR 1980 .................. .......................... UNCONSTRAINED FLOWS BY LOCK AND COMMODITY, YEAR 1990 .................. .......................... UNCONSTRAINED FLOWS BY LOCK AND COMMODITY, YEAR 2000 .................. .......................... UNCONSTRAINED FLOWS BY LOCK AND COMMODITY, YEAR 2010 .................. .......................... UNCONSTRAINED FLOWS BY LOCK AND COMMODITY, YEAR 2040 .................. .......................... FORECAST .. FORECAST .. FORECAST .. FORECAST .. AND ..
11
4
12
5
13
6
14
7
15
8
OHIO RIVER NAVIGATION SYSTEM.TRAFFIC, 1976 AND 1989, PROJECTIONS 1980-2040 ............ .................... OHIO RIVER NAVIGATION SYSTEM, HISTORIC AND PROJECTED WATERWAY TRAFFIC DEMANDS BY COMMODITY GROUP ...........
19
9
..
21
10
TOTAL WATERBORNE COMMERCE BY LOCK AND DAM, OHIO RIVER BASIN, 1976 AND PROJECTED 1980-2040, SELECTED YEARS ..... TOTAL COAL AND COKE COMMERCE BY LOCK AND DAM, OHIO RIVER BASIN, 1976 AND PROJECTED 1980-2040, SELECTED YEARS ..... COMPARISON OF 1990 TRAFFIC PROJECTIONS ON THE OHIO RIVER SYSTEM: STATISTICAL METHODS (CONSAD), SHIPPER SURVEY (BATTELLE), SUPPLY-DEMAND ANALYSIS (NATHAN), AND IWR . EXISTING AND PROJECTED OHIO RIVER BASIN WATERWAY TRAFFIC BY COMMODITY GROUP ............... ..................... EXISTING AND PROJECTED GALLIPOLIS LOCK TRAFFIC BY COMMODITY GROUP ................ ....................... PROJECTED MONONGAHELA RIVER TRAFFIC ...... .............
22
11
24
12
.
.
.
31
13
33
14
.. ..
35 40
15 L6
PROJECTED TRAFFIC DEMAND FOR LOCKS AND DAMS 52 AND 53, LOWER OHIO RIVER BASIN, 1995-2045 ...... .............. xi
45
LIST OF TABLES (continued)
Page
17
OHIO RIVER NAVIGATION SYSTEM WATERBORNE COMMERCE BY COMMODITY GROUP, 1980 .............. .................... COMMODITY MIX OF PROJECTED KANAWHA RIVER TRAFFIC DEMANDS 1980-2050 ...................... .......................... SUMMARY OF INDUSTRY FORECASTS AND OBERS-BASED VARIABLES USED IN WATERWAY PROJECTIONS ........... ................ OHIO RIVER NAVIGATION SYSTEM PROJECTED COMMODITY TRAFFIC, 1986-2050 ...................... .......................... TENNESSEE-TOMBIGBEE WATERWAY
-
46
18
48
19
59
20
62
. . .
21 22
TTWW COMMODITY FORECAST
66
FORECAST OF INiTIAL (1985) TRAIFIC ON THE TENNESSEETOMBIGBEE WATERWAY ................. ..................... PROJECTED TONNAGES FOR SELECTED LOCKS FOR THE BLACK WARRIOR--TOMBIGBEE RIVER SYSTEM, 1990-2030 (WITH AND WITHOUT PROJECT CONDITIONS) ............. ................. TOTAL TRAFFIC PROJECTIONS AT BONNEVILLE AND ACTUAL TONNAGE 1985-89 ........... LOCK, 1985-2010 ................. FOR
69
23
71
24
79
25
THE NATIONAL WATERWAYS STUDY PRINCIPAL ASSUMPTIONS NWS SCENARIOS .................... ........................
87
26
WATERBORNE PROJECTED USE FOR ALL COMMODITIES MISSISSIPPI RIVER SYSTEM/GREAT LAKES DOMESTIC TRAFFIC INBOUND, OUTBOUND, LOCAL, AND THROUGH: 1977 AND 1989 ACTUAL TONNAGE AND PROJECTIONS FOR 1980-2003: BASELINE SCENARIO ..................... .......................... WATERBORNE PROJECTED USE FOR ALL COMMODITIES MISSISSIPPI RIVER SYSTEM/GREAT LAKES DOMESTIC TRAFFIC INBOUND, OUTBOUND, LOCAL, AND THROUGH: 1977 AND 1989 ACTUAL TONNAGE AND PROJECTIONS FOR 1980-2003HIGH USE SCENARIO ....................... .......................... WATERBORNE PROJECTED USE FOR ALL COMMODITIES MISSISSIPPI RIVER SYSTEM/GREAT LAKES DOMESTIC TRAFFIC LOAt. AND THROUGH: 1977 AND 1989 [NBOUND, OUTBO)UAD, ACTUXI. TONNA(GE AND PROJECIIONS FOR 1980-2003: LOW USE SCENAR IO . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
88
27
89
28
.
..
.
90
:xii
LIST OF TABLES (continued)
Page
29
WATERBORNE PROJECTED USE FOR ALL COMMODITIES MISSISSIPPI RIVER SYSTEM/GREAT L-MKES DOMESTIC TRAFFIC INBOUND, OUTBOUND, LOCAL, AND THROUGH: 1977 AND 1989 ACTUAL TONNAGE AND PROJECTIONS FOR 1980-2003: BAD ENERGY SCENARIO ................ ....................... U S. INLAND WATERWAY TRAFFIC 1986 ACTUAL TONNAGE AND PROJECTIONS OF COMMODITY MOVEMENTS, 1990-2000 .......... GROWTH RATES USED FOR PROJECTIONS OF WATERWAYS TRAFFIC BY COMMODITY GROUP, FOR INLAND WATERWAY SYSTEM .....
T U.S. INLAND WATER !AY TRAFFIC 1986 ACTUAL TONNAGE AND PROJECTIONS OF COMYjUITY MOVEMENTS, 1990-2000 ..........
..
91
30
94
31
96
32
102
33
GENERAL PROJECTION METHODOLOGY AND DATA SOURCES FOR THE 16 INLAND WATER STUDIES ............ ...................
108
xiii
INTRODUCTION
Inland waterway traffic Army Corps of Engineers' benefits.
projections
are important
elements
in
the U.S.
planning process
for determining navigation project cost sharing resulting from the importance of Nationally At present no consistent for use by project
With the emphasis on non federal Development Act of 1986, the
Water Resources consistent traffic set of waterway
demand estimates will increase. traffic demand projections
are available
managers and water hoc procedures resulted in
resource planners.
Consequently,
analysts must devise ad This has
to produce project-specific
waterway projections.
a wide variety of approaches for traffic generally producing inconsistent results
demand projections within from one project study to
the Corps, another.
The Institute address
for Water Resources
(IWR) in
has been directed to study and
the problem of inconsistencies
Corps of Engineers projection to develop procedures inland waterway traffic and demand
methodologies. guidelines projections
The objective of the study is
for making consistent and systematic that fit
within a national network of regional production and and which account for traffic projections carried by
consumption patterns
other modes of transportation. methodology
The scope of work calls
for developing a
for inland waterway traffic
demand projections by river reach and from Corps divisions
by commodity detail, and districts.
to be reviewed by representatives
Component tasks of IWR's research traffic project
include preparing a report reviewing recent inland navigation
demand projection methodologies used in level and national
level Corps reports and identifying sources of transportation, and commodity production and synthesized analysis, and
information for economic, consumption forecasts; from an assessment contract forecast
development of a projection methodology regional
of previous Corps work, services;
input/output
field review and testing of the projection traffic forecasts at the project level; final
methodology to develop sample
refinements and enhancements changes and modifications set of general
of the methodology
incorporating appropriate generating a final
to techniques
and data inputs;
inland waterway traffic
projections at the national level, for districts participating in
along with waterway and lock level projections the field test; preparing a report/manual
documenting
the projection interested field level.
methodology and guidelines;
and conducting a seminar for all and practical
offices to review the approach
applications at the field
This report
reviews and briefly assesses previous Corps forecasting data sources for commodity demand and supply and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers These inland navigation
techniques and identifies economic forecasts used in
studies completed between 1974 and 1990. and/or contracted by Corps districts
studies were conducted by of specific
to determine the feasibility
inland navigation projects within their jurisdictions. incorporated justification in many of these feasibility
The economic analyses the
studies were used in
of inland navigation projects presently under construction or in and design phases. The 16 navigation studies
preconstruction engineering reviewed in this
report include:
o o
Lower Mississippi Region Comprehensive
Study of the Upper
Comprehensive Master Plan for the Management Mississippi River System
o
Projections
of Demand for Waterborne 1980-2040
Transportation,
Ohio River Basin, o o o o o o Gallipolis
Lock and Dam Replacement Locks and Dams 7 and 8
Monongahela River Navigation System,
Lower Ohio River Navigation Feasibility:
(Mouth to Cumberland River) 1986-2050
Forecast of Future Ohio River Basin Waterway Traffic: Kanawha River Navigation, Supplement Winfield Lock Replacement Impact Statement:
to the Environmental
Tennessee-
Tombigbee Waterway o Operational Forecast for Initial Traffic on the Tennessee-
Tombigbee Waterway o o Oliver Lock Replacement Bonneville Navigation Lock, Columbia River
2
"o "o
o
Mississippi River Gulf Outlet New Lock and Connecting Channels Montgomery Point Lock and Dam The National Waterways Final Report Study - A Framework for Decision Making
-
o
1988 Inland Waterway Review
While Corps planning for waterway district and division level,
improvements
is
centered at the level
the Corps also has undertaken national
navigation studies to provide an integrated system overview and to rank specific project needs for planning, the inland waterways system. incorporated in Waterway Review, design, construction, and operation of
Reviews of the projection methodologies and The 1988 Inland included in this report.
the National Waterways Study (NWS) both published by IWR, also are national
Despite the similarity of both studies' specific) outlooks,
system (versus projecteffort addressing at both
the NWS represented a massive multi-year projections
waterborne traffic
for domestic and foreign commerce
coastal ports and on the inland waterways, competing modes of transportation (e.g., recommendations regarding
and included share analysis for Specific
pipelines and rail).
investment strategies and schedules based on these The purpose of The 1988 Inland
projections were part of the assessment. Waterway Review, on the other hand, traffic
was to provide useful information on and projections to help supplement the
waterway performance,
trends,
planning efforts of Corps districts mandated
and divisions
and the Congressionally-
Inland Waterways Users Board.
A critical
element
in
the process is
of determining benefits for a expected to
potential navigation project use the project. effort, In
the estimation of future traffic
some instances districts
have invested considerable time, traffic projections for a
and expense
into developing comprehensive On the other hand,
number of projects.
other districts
have had to prepare and were compelled Unfortunately,
projections under much greater budget and time constraints,
to draw on existing projections with only minor modifications. no uniform se'- of national waterway and recurring basis. employ a wide variety
forecasts has been available on a timely district planners economic
Compounding this lack of consistency, of projection methodologies in
their individual
3
analyses.
A review of the 16 Corps
inland navigation studies
indicates
that
several unique
forecasting procedures were used. to be addressed in
While each project always projections, the credibility
will have unique features
developing traffic
the use of consistent macroeconomic of all the forecasts.
assumptions will enhance
The individual methodologies into several general categories. year traffic
from each project One procedure
report can be grouped
involves multiplying a base These increases
level by commodity-specific time periods,
annual growth rates. traffic in
may vary over different
but total
any given year can traffic levels. commerce at Industrial the
simply be computed by aggregating Variations
the individual commodity
on this method were used for projections of waterborne River), Oliver Lock (Black Warrior River), Waterway), Bonneville Lock
Winfield Lock (Kanawha Canal Lock
(Gulf Intracoastal
(Columbia River), and Dam 26, Study. In Second
Upper Mississippi Chamber),
River Comprehensive Master Plan (Locks
and the Lower Mississippi Region Comprehensive
addition,
both national level method.
reports published by IWR used this type of projection used in the Winfield Study were both commodity specific receiving waterborne commodity traffic.
The forecasts
and specific to the BEA areas
A second group of studies employed a "shipper survey" method in which existing and potential waterway users distributors, military installations, (utilities, exporters, factories, mills, etc.) Responses approach
terminal operators,
were interviewed
to determine
their future plans to ship by barge. This "bottom-up"
then were aggregated was used in District's Waterway. 53,
to yield total projections.
the Nathan Associates Ohio River Basin Study and the Mobile restudy, and in operational forecasts for the Tennessee-Tombigbee Ohio Locks 52 and
Other reports Locks,
(e.g.,
Monongahela Locks
7 and 8,
Gallipolis
and Bonneville Lock), did incorporate traffic flows.
while not relying on shipper in
surveys
exclusively, future
survey and interview techniques
establishing
A third methodology
was used the Ohio River Basin Study and the These studies correlated historic to such independent variables as
Bonneville Navigation Lock Study. waterborne traffic in
various commodities 4
time,
population,
employment by industry,
earnings by industry,
and personal
income.
Regression equations were developed that best "explained" the Future values of the independent OBERS national
historic pattern for each commodity group.
variables were obtained from the Bureau of Economic Analysis' and regional projections series.
These government estimates then were plugged
into the regression equations to yield future values for waterborne traffic.
A final method,
developed by the consulting firm Robert R. Nathan
Associates for the Ohio River Division, provided the basis for several reports, including Monongahela Locks 7 and 8, Ohio Locks 52 and 53, and
Gallipolis Locks.
This approach included a long-term evaluation of waterway
traffic demands based upon an analysis of market demands for waterborne commodities, the Ohio River basin's resource base of these commodities, and a forecast of the transportation
probable long-term production levels,
modes involved in moving these commodities from production areas to consumption areas.
A brief description of the forecasting methods and commodity projections for each of the reviewed studies is are compared to other studies, if presented in this report. The projections that is,
appropriate,
and to actual events,
how well did the forecasts predict what actually took place.
The sources of
information for each report's projections also are identified, as well as their usefulness and currency.
5
REVIEW OF FORECASTS AND METHODS
1.
Lower Mississippi Region Comprehensive
Study,
Appendix J,
Navigation, 1974.
Lower Mississippi Region Comprehensive Study Coordinating Co-mittee,
The purpose of the 1974 Lower Mississippi Region Comprehensive to make a broad determination period, 1970-2020,
Study was
of the region's navigation needs for the 50-year national income and
analyzed under two objectives:
regional development. projected waterborne
Part of the needs assessment was dependent upon traffic levels through 2020. The study used 1970 base The
year tonnage data from Waterborne Commerce waterborne share of total
of the United States.
commerce moving through the Lower Mississippi Region 1970 proportion of total traffic.
was assumed to maintain at least its
Future waterborne commerce
in
selected commodity categories was One set of selected
projected by applying growth rates to 1970 base year traffic. growth rates was obtained from OBERS industries for particular (Program BEA regions. A)
indexes of economic growth in These indices of growth
rates by major
industry groups Growth rates in in
were used to forecast regional development. grain traffic; growth rates in
agriculture were used to forecast traffic;
mining were used to forecast coal
the average traffic;
of growth rates
mining and refining were used to forecast petroleum quarrying to forecast aggregates forecast iron and steel industrial chemical traffic; traffic;
growth rates in primary metals to
growth rates in rates in
arid growth Another
chemicals to forecast (Program B) were
traffic.
set of indices in employment
developed to average
reflect a regional growth
equal to the national to base
of 1.4 percent annually.
Application of both sets of indexes
year ton miles provided projections of ton miles by river segment 2000, and 2020 (Table 1).
for 1980,
The utility
of this studv's projections has e VbI s, trra ff1ic
is
somewhat weakened by the
dated nature of tht OBERS growth ilmd ic
levels amid the obsolescence of 1967
0
NN C0
Q
r* 0 . 4
CD-
oc
0 r
~~tNl
4-.
mU
c
CHl H
0
:
N
o(Nc.i
00
I0 '
-HC
00
-4 E
0
~ 0
~~
-H
0P.
-
Nl
j
l-
1
x-
E-44> 43)
0
0
u
.- !
0
0
L
GP
0 (U
'-0
0
x3
ix
413
u
j
.r
m
*
L, -
03
V4
0
3'-
03 0
C
4 0
0
0U.' 0U
@j
0 0U 4 3
(
o
0
3
mnI-
- (
8
The projection methodology, studies, indexes appear in this case
while
used effectively
in
several
other navigation
to be too generic. to base traffic
Applying OBERS productivity levels does not necessarily Potentially
for various
industries traffic
correlate with increased more
for a given commodity group.
important determinants
of demand for commodities moving on the waterway Grain, coal, and petroleum products movements, River, are the
were not fully considered. three major commodity a great extent by U.S. productivity gains in
groups on the Lower Mississippi
influenced to than by
and world demand for food and energy products agriculture, mining, and refining.
Use of additional
data sources would have enhanced credibility
of the projections.
2.
Comprehensive Master Plan for the Management Appendix A:
of the Upper Mississippi Upper Mississippi
River System,
Navigation and Technical Report, 1981.
River Basin Commission,
October
This report was written with considerable fact, several members
Corps of Engineers
input;
in
of the Commission were Corps personnel. (Second Chamber),
The Corps'
economic analysis
of Lock and Dam 26 Louis,
located on the traffic projections
Mississippi River above St.
incorporated commodity
directly from the Comprehensive
Master Plan.
The Comprehensive Mastr .,i the Upper Mississippi Although (above
Plan study projected commodity St. Louis) and Illinois Rivers
and lock traffic through 2040. the 1980
1980 was used for the base year for commodity movements, (NWS)
figures were estimated from National Waterways Study Likewise, finalized forecasts in the
projections. (which were
were developed using the NWS growth of 1980). traffic Commodity-specific
rates
fall
growth rates from NWS were tonnages for
applied to 1980 hase year 1.990, that 2000. present 2010, tli at-'vs einid
to yield forecasts of traffic
and 20!,0. implicit
Tables forecast
2-7 from the Comprehensive Master commodity growth rates
Plan from
(assimilated
the Nat-ional
Mississippi
Stllud,)
arid forecast
segments ions
tonnages by
lock for the Upper
111 liols Riv'r h r". Soime a<
Kdeveloped by the Basin Commission) imbedded in the NWS forecasts are
art, r-eprodu•d
(If-SC r i
s.umpt
ht~d Vt 1o
SCoco
-
-
-
~
...
.
0'
-~
-9
cq
a
-
00
Qn t' IVfl
*
I
~
-004
00 II
2.
9x
1
jIN
000
u 11
i 7 7 7 i
<00o A C
A
V, 5 - 5
-Ri oN s
u
I-
n
n.Z
-
I-
0
10
~
I
eorj
ow Ae -4 N N N -4 NNf -4Nf
04 0 N N7 0%f 0 Cr V V CA
IA 140
Fpww~w~. 'A-O~
a.N a
WWcN
00
iin
'020-
In
-
IM
0
v-
4
P,,4*S
---
~ P1010P1
.0060=0
0P0~'4d
NO
00
Oa 404.) ---- -0 -----p -O-
'.9A
-P
X
ftft
on4'4P.f4
WV
A.U**U AN4'E A
ft
ft
on P%
Vm n V
V
V
V
-.
4
6.
O
ff4^140
coo-4. CCI 0
*IA
S
N2
,
9
00
:
S
o00o
:m0
-r
.r
%
ý
P.4
-Cft-
I-ft
-0 -
-
f%~- a aZ r.r
;.0O 10 .aR''4a.f4 o % %0
E
o
0 2
4'' n& n f
*0
.5E 0.W
.Nl 6-f.r
Om I
bM in
fF. 0 '~4
4
r
Io
con-4
0.
oP. o,.1 4,
Z
4
zzr .
i-na
V
:.44ýP3 Z
aaaaaa0a0aaaa00a
u
r -I
.r
-r
0 .4.4~~ VVV YVV VVV VWV bl V
0
a ion-
ft I b" -
:U'w~
2
r
PS.4'40VV~0'4'46U~s~
0
.4.
V
.;
5
206
o'
r. m404:
Q
12
II
,MM pp
V N INkA hm
ft ft P.~
ft Ný 20 Mft fVI
vt
taM ft w
.tU VI VI VI
ff.
.ý
wtfftFe ftft N Nft
t
ft
WL pfl
m ANo
aftt.4m
Cft ft
ft Ntttffe
ffttttt
@
00~
wp
O0-ftNa
-ItNNfftNfftftft
ft4ftN"ftv3.tmM
M
M
M.
N
ftN
tft-ft
*a
2
cr 4
~~ 4
f
~tmv
~
~ 0ft.
~
w
~
v
fwW
3a
A.
v - v4d4 4ý 44o "
ft ftP l
00.0
00~0~~0tfttft 0. MP.0
tP~tVII
V4n
In on0
mft
me30W a6Ift
dcd
E-~~~~~~~0 ~
M
~
ftft
e
0 ft ft
@
0 f
§
O
i
f
0 M
a
2
%ge-
'r. V. a-'
ftt0Ot M P. 06 O a O~1fP 0t g.fN
WI
af
v'
g PP. 1a t..vEa
@ftfftW I~P.0@fftftft
ft
13
JA9~ InI
'
%P
INS~~~ om
-m
f LW %Pal OV al %p, :vN
n
F
P
. r
11 l
P
-0 00 P -~'0 V. VN
~
fr AnM N
NN NN
NN
f
N N
NVINNN0
N
0c000
~
I19V
i
N
.4m
.
M votP
F"o
VZV0F
. o
6
u
*cc
on
*4
-
-
- -
-
..
..
v~~- .
%0NN
V
N
11N ::
!
4
1t W O b,~-q
ftw
-~
V
vv*u
-0
ee
---
-
---
~
00
--
-----
.
OQw
a
V00
0aft~~ ft
00
m" ft ft
ft ON
wV
000'A00
mfN
00800
o
.
E
-~A
b. o
u
N
v~y
WY
WW
WW
WO
OO*OuOg14n
a
(p
;
f4 pq 'A attt
v
f
f
ftNN
t
t
f
f
0
4
f4
el
o
x
-
0- - l"vev a
A' t ft
&4& ftftqYY
~
~
~
w vttftt 0.6
f mfl 0% on ontft tf ft
% .P
tft
O0.
t
I~~
ft .%
tv -ft
ft
F. f.ft %ft
ONt
.
-~~~~~~
ft
'
f
'
'
~f f
N94 .
ft
.
r' fq"f .
U
'
fttdCt
UttY
fffftttttt
*S InfttS
ft
f:
I
A~tt.9iI f"~ftFf m m m
V .
m ftSF P
.
-
C
Z~
zt
wtf
Nf--ft
j,
m
v
IV
to^,
" YYY4 10W
2
ZZImpftC 'o.9
u
~
a1
5
Grain traffic,
which
is
in
large part a driving force on the Upper is heavily influenced by foreign demand
Mississippi Basin Navigation system, for U.S. region is export grains. Approximately
90 percent of grain moving outbound from the The National Waterways Study forecast to exhibit strong growth (3 that
destined for export.
demand for grain would continue
to 4
percent per year through 2003), would increase,
acres planted would increase,
yields per acre
and domestic demand would remain constant.
The NWS also
predicted that real oil year,
prices would continue to increase by 3.8 percent per energy sources and reducing In response, domestic coal demand
encouraging the search for alternative share of total energy consumed.
petroleum's
was expected to triple doubled.
during the period 1977-2003,
while export demand
The NWS also expected steel (thereby
imports as a percent of total and raw material
consumption to fall suppliers), historical
benefiting domestic producers traffic to exhibit slower
and for chemical average.
growth than its
In traffic,
comparing the Lock and Dam 26 it appears
(L&D
26)
projections
to actual historic Plan projections fell short of reached
that the Upper Mississippi Comprehensive Total traffic (71.1 in 1985
were too optimistic. the "estimated"
(57.3 million tons)
1980 base
million tons).
By 1987 actual traffic
only 69.3 million tons, One explanation
far short of the 1990 projection of 94.2 million tons.
for the discrepancy between forecasted and actual values is change in the U.S. economy after 1980 not captured
the extent of macroeconomic by the NWS projections
or other forecasts in
at the time.
A severe world the collapse of oil
recession, prices,
structural changes
the national economy,
and fierce competition for grain export markets were not anticipated for L&D 26 were developed. it is more difficult While forecast values can be the methodology employed
when the forecasts compared in
to history,
to evaluate
this study.
Apparently the National Waterways
Study was relied upon These projections were
exclusively in
for projected growth
rates by commodity.
turn dependent upon data and economic models (DRI), a well-respected economic consulting the Upper Mississippi Study,
developed by Data Resources, firm. DRI's methodology is DRI's role in this
Inc.
not explained in in
Comprehensive is
Plan report.
the National W;aterways
however,
examined subsequently
document. 16
A second factor in
not realizing the projected
traffic
was the
application of growth rates from NWS rather than tonnages projected by NWS. The NWS growth rates were derived using a 1976 base year and premised on achieving a set tonnage level in rates to a different the forecast years. (1980, Applying these growth
and much higher base disconnects
when grain movements were in the
exceptionally high)
the rates from the economic assumptions of the forecasts.
DRI Model while increasing the magnitude
3.
Proiections of Demand for Waterborne Study Summary,
Transportation,
Ohio River Basin
1980-2040,
Ohio River Division,
December 1980.
Projections navigable tributaries
of waterborne
commerce on the Ohio River and its Monongahela, Kanawha,
eight Green,
(the Allegheny,
Kentucky,
Cumberland,
Tennessee,
and Clinch Rivers) Robert R.
were produced for ORD by three CONSAD Research
independent consultants: Corporation, and Battelle
Nathan Associates,
Columbus Laboratories.
The CONSAD report,
completed in January 1979, the historic waterborne
projected traffic commodity Commerce
demands
through 1990 by correlating Ohio River various system (obtained
flows on the reports) with The
from the 1975 Waterborne
indicators
of regional and national demands
for the commodities. traffic
demand variables which appeared to best describe for each of the commodity groups was selected historic and projected values
the historic
pattern The
for projection purposes.
for the demand variables were based upon the of National and Regional Economic Activity.
1972 OBERS Series E Projections
CONSAD used correlation and regression the historical quantitative levels. relationships These
techniques
to try to determine indicators
between national economic
and waterway traffic
relationships could then be applied to
future economic forecasts traffic. The forecast
to obtain projections of future demand for waterway indicators, income, provided by 1972 OBERS Series E, per capita income, and population.
economic
were total earnings,
total personal
A series of regression equations the eight
were developed using traffic variables and time, GNP,
levels for national
commodity groups as the dependent 17
population,
national income and earnings,
and basin-level income and earnings individual
in various industry groups as the independent variables in regression equations.
Only variables that had some identifiable economic a particular commodity group were used in
relationship to the commodities in the regressions.
The criteria employed for retention of a regression equation (R2) and "appropriateness" of the projected tonnage (a
were goodness of fit
subjective judgment whether or not the projected value seemed reasonable in light of historic tonnage values). As an example, basinwide traffic in grains was predicted as a function of projected national earnings in manufacture of food and kindred products and projected basinwide earnings in agriculture and wholesale and retail trade. At the individual river level, the analysis was Finally,
performed by direction (upstream/downstream)
and commodity group.
the projection procedures employed for lock and dam projects were similar to those used for individual river projections.
CONSAD's and NATHAN ASSOCIATES' are presented in Table 8.
projections of Ohio River System traffic 1976 and 1989 actual
For comparative purposes,
traffic and IWR's projections from The 1988 Inland Waterway Review also are provided. It should be noted that the IWR study was completed almost 10 years the economic and political conditions were
after the other studies; thus, different.
The Battelle report, through 1990.
completed in June 1979,
also projected traffic
Projections were developed by surveying all waterway users in
the Ohio River Basin through a combined mail survey and personal interview approach. The purpose of the survey was to obtain from each individual by specific origins and All
shipper an estimate of his future commodity movements, destinations,
as well as other associated traffic information.
identifiable waterway users were contacted and the responses were then aggregated to yield projected traffic demands.
The Nathan report, movements into, from,
completed in November 1980,
projected commodity
and within the Ohio River Basin using three techniques:
market demand analysis, transportation 18 and modal split
commodity resource analysis.
inventory,
The demand
for waterway
was projected for 15
TABLE 8 OHIO RIVER NAVIGATION SYSTEM TRAFFIC, 1976 AND 1989, (Million Tons) AND PROJECTIONS 1980-2040
1976 Total Traffic Historic CONSAD Nathan IWR (High) IWR (Low) Coal Traffic Historic CONSAD Nathan IWR (High) IWR (Low)
1980
1985
1989
1990
2000
2020
2040
178.1 179.3 203.9 238.4 -211.3 264.8 -200.8 222.2 -.
328.1 297.3 254.2 232.3
334.3 390.8 438.7 326.9 266.8
103.0
--
103.8 117.3 144.6 117.0 146.6 -116.5 130.4 -.
182.3 183.5 204.2 228.1 253.7 159.5 217.9 146.5 176.8
commodity groups,
by origin and destination,
through 2040.
Point-to-point
waterway flows were allocated
to 72 operational
lock and dams.
Major forecasts of the Nathan report included the projection of traffic growth on the Ohio River System (ORS) million tons in 2040 1989 (Table 8). (historical from 200.8 million tons in 1976 to 438.7 238.4
This figure compares to an actual Corps data)
million tons in tons in
and IWR's projected 327.0 million high scenario). in Further, the for
2000 (The
1988 Inland Waterway Review, the largest absolute
Nathan report
forecast
increase
commodity traffic
coal and coke and the highest rate of growth for ore and mineral commodities (chiefly due to inbound alumina shipments). to decline, Movements of petroleum and
petroleum products were forecast consumption of these products.
as were regional production and
As previously mentioned, market demands in Ohio River
Nathan incorporated
assessments of future (production base) An analysis of
(consumption base) Basin (ORB)
and resource inventories
BEA regions for 15 commodity groups. projecting future
historical patterns.
modal
splits
was also used in
transportation
A summary
of Nathan's methodology
follows:
19
(1)
BEA regions were
identified in
the ORB as ultimate
origin or destination
of waterborne movements.
(2)
Historical
production and consumption data by BEA region for each (e.g., Departments of
commodity were obtained from a variety of sources Interior, Analysis, Agriculture, Energy, and Transportation,
Bureau of Economic
Bureau of the Census,
and state and local governments).
(3)
Historical
commodity movements
to and from BEA regions by rail
and water
modes were provided by the Corps of Engineers. to equal total
Truck shipments were estimated shipments.
net shipments minus net water and rail
(4)
Factors affecting modal researchers.
choice were solicited
from shippers,
receivers,
and professional
(5)
Future production and consumption of commodities by BEA region were for 1980, 1990, 2000, 2020, and 2040, based on national projections
projected
developed by Federal
agencies and then disaggregated to BEA levels.
(6) traffic
Projected commodity movements and modal splits patterns and past trends.
were based on 1976
Trends were adjusted to take into account
the opinions
of industry experts and the stated intentions of firms.
(7)
Projections
of waterborne movements were distributed among BEA-to-BEA (1976) distributions, again adjusted
links on the basis of historical according to information from
interviews.
Traffic locks are coke,
projections
from The Nathan Report for the Ohio River Basin Table 11 for coal and
presented in
Table 10 for total tonnage and in
Ohio River navigation system historic waterway traffic Report. demands 1980-2040,
(1976
and 1989)
and projected
are presented in
Table 9 from the Nathan
20
CD
u
CDC NO
M et w 0'
-
LIn
rv
UN r.
MUn
m"
N
M 0
C
4 C
10
C
lC . 07' 0 *0 LA 0
O
UTCA 1
*ý Ln
Ix,'01
~
Ir4
00
o 2
l I cl7 C). N LAý 0
.0
Ln
r', ct
0t0No'
-
40
n
r'~~~~~ @
U, Nl r, 4 '4 ' @2 CO Nn
a L-
S
0;0 ca CU
@
~
N
@
Ic.r
0
W:
0u 'C
LCo
a
M n C 0 to.10 ( CU w 4 0,L
@C 2
0~ It 0 Wj u
N
CDn
C-,e' 00
0
0,
r0
0l 4
C
r4 'C m~ &~ -.7 007
tmI 0
N0 -() c 2
'C2
_.7C ro 1-
-
0
.@
C
'
LA
-
0
"
4
0
CD
0'
r'-
0,
I-&
'0
m
-7
I00i
r4
0
N .-
of0 0.0
.
CD
"' 0,
-4, m
@2 o
n
-
'
s0
a0cir
(a 0L
.
00 m
F'.
-7
N~
LA
0m LAi
@2
LA
'
2
LA
.
::0:
L
-F
ix -) 0 -
LA
0 CUý
0
0-
7S
4.0.4, 0~'
4,
UD 00 .C u L. C F'0'0 C1
L 4.02 (n.
2'-21
TABLE 10 TOTAL WATERBORNE COMMERCE BY LOCK AND DAM, OHIO RIVER BASIN, 1976 AND PROJECTED 1980-2040, SELECTED YEARS (Thousands of Tons) Projected
Lock and dam TOTAL 1976 1,070,817 188 1,548 2,34 6,991 8,939 18,364 19,351 25,101 22,885
-
1980 1,167,818 208 1,657 2,605 7,622 9,689 19,734 20,836 27,275 25,846
-
1990 1,603,497 256 2,009 3,358 9,300 11,608 22,737 23,732 30,876 30,627
-
2000 1,895,238 290 2,161 3,726 10,332 -12,861 25,297 26,302 33,946 34,188
-
2020 2,383,408 324 2,276 4,104 11,115 13,856 28,369 29,475 37,971 41,314
-
2040 2,820,619 360 2,397 4,376 11,808 14,759 31,299 32,478 41,436 46,767
-
a/
Opekiska LID Hildebrand LID Morganovwn LID Point Marion LID L/D 7 - Monongahela Maxwell L/D L/D 4 - Monongahela LID 3 - Monongahela L/D 2 - Monongahela L/D 9 - Allegheny L/D 8 - Allegheny L/0DT - Allegheny L/D 6 - Allegheny L/D 5 - Allegheny LID 4 - Allegheny L/D 3 - Allegheny L/D 2 - Allegheny Emewrth LID Dashields LID Montgomery L/D New Cumberland LID Pike Island LID Hannibal LID Willow Island LID 3elleville L/D Racine LID London L/D Marmet L/D Winfield L/D Gallipolis LID Greenup LID Meldahl L/D Markland LID
LID 14 LID 13
......
-
126 1,625 2,145 3,789 4,241 25,811 25,587 22,936 26,583 27,079 31,603 33,021 34,642 36,234 1,604 6,619 11,344 40,794 32,388 28,708 34,160
-
137 1,773 2,342 4,202 4,677 29,119 28,769 26,424 30,380 31,411 36,054 37,844 40,008 42,156 1,919 8,010 13,553 47,538 36,041 32,162 38,570
-
104 1,377 2,155, 4,786 5,286 36,092 35,428 33,314 38,067 41,249 48,118 51,248 56,175 58,087 3,035 12,330 19,403 64,519 48,668 42,843 53,729
-.. -
91 1,229 2,157 5,417 5,989 41,446 40,609 38,494 43,818 48,121 56,048 60,851 67,185 68,900 3,224 13,215 21,977 75,000 59,833 52,521 65,690
-
101 1,374 2,462 6,430 7,137 50,144 49,062 48,157 54,603 61,610 71,884 80,830 88,612 90,105 3,209 13,382 26,483 93,475 72,473 65,961 85,723
-
107 1,452 2,655 7,140 7,986 56,587 55,324 55,155 62,451 71,247 83,251 95,454 104,338 105,746 3,196 13,814 29,810 107,916 86,123 79,158 103,764
-
L/D 12 L/D 11
LIDo10 LID 9
L/ID 8-.... LID 7
LID L/D5 6
-
...... .......
--
L/D 4 L/D 3 L/I 2 L/D 1 McAlpine L/D Cannelton LID Newburgh L/D L/D 3 L/D 2 L/D 1 Uniontown L/D LID 50 - Ohio River L/D 51 - Ohio River Smithland L/D
542 542 542 542 40,094 42,787 39,854 58 12,417 12,958 47,126 51,895 52,743 52,913
546 546 546 546 44,493 46,495 42,247 67 14,062 14,685 48,519 53,459 54,267 54,520
521 521 521 521 63,218 66,056 68,874 85 22,845 23,871 72,&76 79,091 79,950 80,184
471 471 471 471 78,086 81,706 84,565 134 25,652 26,758 87,149 92,955 93,152 93,407
561 561 561 561 104,179 109,698 117,194 74 24,829 26,650 111,715 115,885 116,654 116,963
610 610 610 610 127,807 135,016 146,698 59 25,736 27,918 137,575 140,594 141.783 142,103 (continued)
22
TABLE 10 (Continued)
Lock arid dam LID 52 - Ohio liver LID 53 - Ohio liver Kentucky - Barkley LID Cordell Hull LID Old Hickory LID Cheatham L/D Watts Bar L/D Chickamauga L/D Nickajack L/D Guntersville LiD Wheeler LID Wilson L/D Pickwick L/D ft. Loudoun L/D Helton Hill LID
1976 61,530 56,110 24,719
-
1980 62,460 55,009 27,405 276 3,609 472 1,438 4,173 4,824 7,532 7,895 8,850 312 6
1990 94,712 75,447 31,336
-
Pro lecctd 2000 116,207 94,522 33,537
-
2020 146,489 117,641 42,648
-
2040 178,250 143,672 47,765 707 7,410 1,338 2,494 8,139 11,063 22,062 24,391 26,657 503 31
262 3,791 378 973 4,029 4,544 6,996 7,301 8,191 228 4
351 4,476 668 1,444 5,4966,478 10.228 10,847 11,950 407 9
465 5,250 830 1,705 6,447 7,798 12,835 13,747 15,048 473 13
650 6,605 1,128 2,213 7,620 9,907 18,221 19,887 21,760 514 23
SOURCE: Robert R. Nathan Associates, Inc. (Table G-1, pages 201-202 of the 1980 Ohio River Basin Study).
a/ Total tonnages from running all locks and dams in the system. Note: Tonnages may not sum to totals due to rounding.
23
TABLE
11
TOTAL COAL AND COKE COMMERCE BY LOCK AND DAM, OHIO RIVER BASIN, 1976 AND PROJECTED 1980-2040, SELECTED YEARS (Thousands of Tons)
Lock and dam TOTAL
1976 533,241 100 1,460 1,586 5,935 7,882 17,307 17,530 21,213 17,313
-
1980 594,408 108 1,557 1,693 6,437 8,503 18,547 18,781 22,648 19,350
-.... -... -... -...
1990 872,414 130 1,883 2,050 7,672 9,979 21,108 21,353 25,291 22,934
-
Projected 2000 1,000,996 143 2,014 2,196 8,454 10,983 23,419 23,687 28,087 25,841
-
2020 1,235,851 151 2,103 2,296 9,012 11,753 26,266 26,564 31,882 32,239
-
2040 1,480,004 160 2,197 2,401 9,616 12,573 29,113 29,440 35,622 37,624
-
a/
Opekiaka LID Hildebrand L/D Morgantown L/D Point Marion LID LID 7 - Monongahela Maxwell L/D L/D 4 - Monongahela LID 3 - Monongahela LID 2 - Monongahela L/D 9 - Allegheny L/D S - Allegheny LID 7 - Allegheny LID 6 - Allegheny L/D 5 - Allegheny L/D 4 - Allegheny LID 3 - Allegheny L/D 2 - Allegheny Easworth L/D Dashields LID Montgomery L/D Neo Cumberland LID Pike Island L/D Hannibal LID Willow Island LID Belleville LID Racine L/D London L/D Marmet L/D Winfield L/D Callipolis LID Creenup L/D Meldahl L/D Markland L/D L/D 14 L/D 13 L/D 12 L/D 11 L/D 10 L/D 9 L/D 8 L/D7 I.LID 6 LID 5 LID 4 LID 3 L/D 2 LID I McAlptne LID Cannelton L/D Newburgh L/D L/D 3 L/D 2 L/D 1 Uniontown L/D
208 2,012 2,463 15,947 15,947 11,500 14,110 15,279 17,615 17,616 18,290 18,292 1,265 5,195 4,221 22,149 13,721 9,546 11,670
-....... -....... -
217 2,120 2,593 17,942 17,942 13,318 16,204 17,874 20,527 20,528 21,368 21,370 1,560 6,335 5,114 25,941 14,823 10,327 14,041
-
233 2,289 2,786 21,465 21,465 16,517 19,862 22,891 27,820 27,826 30,618 30,622 2,613 10,173 9,133 36,009 21,779 15,203 22,212
-
265 2,567 3,136 24,437 24,437 19,236 22,857 26,636 32,316 32,323 35,658 35,663 2,811 11,155 10,307 41,426 28,315 20,128 27,335
--
313 2,994 3,697 31,457 31,457 26,619 30,985 37,357 44,081 44,091 48,317 48,322 2,781 11,219 11,217 55,791 35,120 27,502 38,059
361 3,435 4,277 37,454 37,454 32,929 37,772 45,892 53,452 53,464 58,492 58,497 2,800 11,625 12,310 67,547 45,176 36,536 48,626
-.... -... -..... -.... -.. -.... -..... -
-. -. -... -
--
-
-
18,340 20,011 15,311 58 12,241 12,778 19,956
21,759 23,723 17,733 67 13,904 14,523 21,991
34,071 37,017 36,840 85 22,645 2J,665 39,342
41,849 45,485 44,442 134 25,377 26,472 43,427
57,471 62,448 62,272 74 24,517 26,318 52,466
62,647 78,845 79,829 59 25,387 27,543 64,434 (countiued)
24
TABLE I
(Continued)
Lock and dam L/D 50 - Ohio River L/D 51 - Ohio liver Saithland L/D LID 52 - Ohio Liver L/D 53 - Ohio Rliver Kentucky - Barkley L/D
Cordell Hull L/D Old Hickory L/D Cheatham L/D Watts Bar L/D
1976 24.458 24,548 24,548 19,805 15,167 11,018
-
1980 26,788 26,868 26,868 19,668 12,988 12,653
-
1990 45,359 45,430 45,430 42,842 24,657 12,111
-
Projected 2000 48,949 49,040 49,040 50,064 29,152 9,951
-- .--
2020 56,261 56,380 56,380 57,546 29,802 8,897
-
2040 66,975 67.137 67,137 69,879 36,576 6,143
-
-
Chickamauga L/D Mickajack L/D Guntersville LID Wheeler L/D Wilson L/D Pickvick L/D Ft. Loudoun L/D Me lto n Hi l L /D
198 1,104 1,109 1,577 1,632 2,009
-
567 968 975 1,388 1,434 1,776
-
271 1,410 1,415 1,855 1,901 2,152
-
208 1,790 1,794 2,235 2,283 2,473
--
213 1,951 1,955 2,343 2,385 2,529
112 1,900 1,902 2,179 2,211 2,270
.....
SOURCE: Robert R. Nathan Associate, Inc. (Table G-2, pages 203 and 204 of the 1980 Ohio River Basin Study).
a/ Total tonnages from running all locks and dams in the system. Note: Tonnages may not sum to totals due to rounding.
25
4.
Gallipolis
Lock and Dam Replacement,
Ohio River,
Appendix L,
Study Area
Economic Base and Commodity Flow Analysis, Division, April, 1980.
Huntington District,
Ohio River
To thoroughly evaluate improvements District all
the existing Gallipolis
project and potential the Huntington for
for increasing tonnage capacity at the lock,
estimated future traffic
levels and origin-destination patterns Three independent yet complementary
Ohio River system traffic.
studies of of Demand
future demands for waterway service were performed for Projections for Waterborne Transportation Research Corporation, (2) , Ohio River Basin 1980-2040: Institute,
(1) by CONSAD (3) by Robert R.
by Battelle Memorial procedures,
and
Nathan Associates.
The methods,
and resulting forecasts of each
of the three studies were reviewed and interpreted by the Huntington District in their economic analysis of the Gallipolis Lock and Dam replacement a summary of the Huntington District's analysis study.
The following is
and selection
of an appropriate projection methodology.
Comparison of Projection Methodologies
The Huntington District
summarized future demands
for waterway service
on the Ohio River navigation system as a function of four major variables: 1) future local, regional, and national demands for products which use 2) the
commodities moving on the basin's waterways as production inputs; portion of these demands which will be met by industries that 3) the raw material suitably
located so
inputs or final products can be transported by barge; (for raw materials) and markets (for
the location of supply regions for
finished goods) waterways;
industries located contiguous share among all
to the basin's navigable modes of transportation in
and 4)
the waterways'
moving the raw materials from point of supply final or intermediate
to point of production and the
goods from point of production to point of consumption.
The first
two variables
specify
the demand for commodities the demand area-supply for each of the
as well as area links; The
the available supply-
the third specifies
and the fourth specifies the waterway
tonnage
links.
26
degree
to which these variables are
considered,
either individually or in
aggregate,
varies considerably among the three projection studies.
The theoretical
approach used by CONSAD is
founded on the hypothesis
that a direct and quantifiable economic growth in
relationship exists between the rate of The
the Ohio River basin and basin waterway traffic.
regression equations developed for each of the commodity resulting projections earlier. Series
groups and the discussed
implicitly consider each of the four variables
Future commodity demand indicators were derived from the 1972 OBERS E projections of national and regional economic activity water resources planning. endorsed by The share of and the The
the Water Resources Council for use in
these demands that would be met by waterway-oriented subsequent modal split
industries
were estimated by regression techniques. system traffic
regression equations yielded total group. These commodity group (O-D)
demands by major commodity
totals were
then distributed to an originO-D traffic patterns.
destination
matrix format using the historical
This overall approach yielded what might be considered a "baseline" projection projections River (i.e., a continuation of past trends). scenario, historic It utilized the 1972 OBERS the Ohio
as the macroeconomic
essentially assuming that path, economically,
Basin would continue along its and socially,
technologically, future. take It
and become
even more like the nation in
the
must also be remembered that the 1972 OBERS projections significant structural changes in
did not
into account
the economy or the in later years. patterns
regional redistribution of economic activity
that took place
The procedures also assumed a continuation of historical
modal split
and the relationships between production and consumption areas which were implicitly reflected in the historic waterway traffic.
The Battelle Columbus significantly from CONSAD's
Labs shipper survey approach differed statistically-based approach rather methodology. It could be projection by
thought of as a "bottom-up" CONSAD. Each of the four
than the "top-down"
variables
discussed above were determined by the as opposed to an independent held highly
collective views of projection. Sinr:e
the waterway users, it
was probable that the survey participants 27
divergent views of the regional/national possible impact on commodity demands, basin waterway users collectively to the OBERS forecasts. it
economic
future as well as its to quantify how the their outlook
was not possible
viewed the future and compare
The users provided estimates of future waterway traffic individual commodity and origin-destination points. The total
volumes by system demands This
then were determined simply by aggregating
the individual responses.
bottom-up approach permitted the identification of new traffic markets shifted or new facilities were built In (e.g
links as as weil
new power plants)
as the elimination of other links. O-D traffic statistically-based assessment barge.
essence,
the traffic In
de±mands and the
links were solved simultaneously. projections, of the portion of its the shippefuture traffic
contrast to the
survey also reflected each firm's that would likely move by
The long-zange
commodity supply-demand and modal split Inc.
analysi.
performed by Nathan Associates, of the four major factors demands Listed earlier. It
was designed specifically to measure each Basin waterway traffic
influencing Ohio River
thus represented a much more demands than the statistical
comprehensive approacn or the and future
assessment' of future traffic shipper survey approach. available were supply
Future commodity demands
(consumption)
(production)
for each BEA region within the waterway region and regional models and government, and Nathan
analyzed and projected using broad national and, in some cases,
trends,
the judgment of industry,
commodity
specialists.
The models usu.d representud
nerni'v
the best estimates
of the Department
of and
on tenerc; products.
-,
rI
ated products, the, Bu ruau of
ores,
the Department of Agriculture on aggregates,
on grains
r-elat-ed
iron
Mines
ard all industry
expert on
alld steelIts p rou proj
ct.,dU
and minerals .
The other smaller commiodity
eroups wei
us i rig a varit.tV of methods.
The p di[~r H H & J -4 E--4 0 4. -
Z3 0
H
H 1CH~lCN Cl O Nwql q
>
0~:1w z >-
w~CO
~
E-1-4-40
o mU~-00
CO0ýi U Cnr- H H l
3 4Q Q) ý
U)
04N
N
Cl
4 Hý
Ný C
N
Hl
0)
m044 OH
E-
V)tf0
0
C w ,ý) .U)
4J (0
0
>4~
Ei
O-- -I C4
Nr
C)
H
N-
0r
H~
ý_
aO
<
m
J~
U
U~~-
300
OH
~
0) -
0~<3
31
ý
considered a more sophisticated method from the viewpoint of depth and detail of analysis. This methodology was based upon an exhaustive evaluation and realm of activities from which aggregate transportation In contrast, the other two
projection of the full demands are methods
derived as well as
the modal shares.
focused only on the waterway mode and its aggregate
traffic.
The activities
which generate addressed in
transportation demands and the modal shares were For these reasons the supply-demand as the
a more simplistic manner.
analysis performed by Nathan was designated by the Huntington District "most probable" future scenario.
The results of the supply-demand analysis presented on a commodity-specific basis in
for the Ohio River system are Over the entire
Table 13.
projection period these estimates were characterized by a growth trend which was increasing at a decreasing 1990, rate (2.8 percent average annual growth 1976As a result, a large A brief
0.8 percent average annual growth 1990-2040). total traffic growth was forecast
portion of the explanation
to occur by 1990.
of each of the commodity
groups follows.
Coal and coke was the only commodity group or above its historic growth rate.
that was expected to grow at
This forecast was related to the expected generating facilities in the middle
completion of several new steam-electric and lower Ohio River Basin area. percent in traffic 1990)
While a large majority traffic
(approximately 84 local a
of future coal and coke
was expected to be
moving from production to consumption areas within the basin, increase in inbound coal traffic in was anticipated.
significant
This increase
was accounted
for by expected growth
the use of low-sulfur western coal by increase in coal receipts was Receipts of coal coal-
basin powerplants.
The largest relative
expected to occur along the lower and middle Ohio Rivers. along the Tennessee fired electric Pittsburgh River were expected facilities in
to decline as TVA phased out its favor of nuclear plants. As the
generating
area becomes increasingly
dependent
on external sources of coal due reserves, upbound shipments
to the depletion of coal
of high quality North Appalachian
through Gallipolis were anticipated
to increase
significantly.
32
c,
0,
+
+ + -
'm
+1 +
+A +
0.
X44 LiO T 0,4 0
~cm
rn
-
CNj
4 L. . ,0
HE0
CL
nC
00 '0 tLC'
oiL
0
H
O>r444
HF,~O i
'2(
0fO
0
-l
C
lO 0
Cý
0
0
~
OC0n
' ~ n1 ( ~ ~CD0C-ruL R 4
0
0ý
4
,
4,
-'
~~4,,4, o
0 Li
4..
~
, 0c
U
CL
0
4j'
3(0 4,, LU~ EC4,
4
0~C0
Wa
Li C4,a( ,
.rEUCA
~
4 '
..
(
(1) 4) L0i
~0)
Li-
04,LLrL-'O d)a i
0i
02
u0
33
Growth in petroleum fuel traffic through 1990 is
considerably relative increases in to historic traffic trends.
expected to slow
include slower relative to
Reasons
consumption, (thus
an excess of basin refining capacity
consumption
reducing the need for fuel imports),
and completion of a new
petroleum products pipeline to the Louisville area. through 2040 projects a 1990 levels) rather sharp decline of crude petroleum in traffic
The long-term outlook (-41.8 percent from energy
as the price
increases and alternative
sources come into widespread use.
Traffic grow slowly,
in
aggregates
throughout the projection period is traffic.
expected to Intra-basin
at about half the rate of growth for total
shipments are expected to continue to dominate movements in group, result areas. although reduced supplies in in increased waterborne
this commodity
the Pittsburgh BEA area are expected to
imports from the middle and lower Ohio River through Gallipolis.
This will increase upbound aggregate traffic
The Nathan forecasts for iron ore, Huntington District the 1960-1976 historical scenario was
iron,
and steel
traffic
used by the
were exceptionally optimistic, average.
with growth rates exceeding
The only explanation offered for this iron ore, iron, and
that the Ohio basin would continue to consume rate than its ability to produce
steel at a faster
these commodities.
Inbound
shipments would increase, area,
especially through Gallipolis
to the Pittsburgh
the basin's major steel production area.
Once the traffic system were developed,
forecasts
for the entire Ohio River Basin navigation remaining task was to Using
the Huntington District's
allocate the projected tonnages
to the system lock and dam projects.
projected origin-destination matrices,
tonnages were allocated to specific Tonnages were assigned to locks in going from an
navigation projects by computer program.
along the basin river routes which would have to be traversed origin to a destination. demand forecasts The end result of this process in is
a set of traffic
for each of the navigation projects
the Ohio River Basin.
Existing and projected commodity are presented in Table 14. Traffic
traffic
demands at the Gallipolis
locks
levels at Gallipolis were expected to grow 34
10 2D
PýI. D go0 IrL ++
0Plr 0
t 1 +
00 >4
0
0. U'
+l +
~+
. .0..I
4)
0
>4
U
0C)
H
~
-
I
~
~
v)
78
0
EA
4'ucno
17
o
04 E-4
U
~
o
0r
~
0
r
0. cc,'j4.~~
0,
cm
5 -D
r-4
0 4-4
0
0,
U
coo
E-4~
0
(U
E-e
0, co'
N
~
:s
0 -
4
'No
r'0'rD.
Cý o9G
Uj
m
4) 0 4)0Q w 0 Ma a
0
(DD
GD
-
o H , 'I~~~~~~~ -
(-U
0
c ov a.(UcL'
GD
35-
from 40.8 million tons in million tons by 2040. in 1989, In
1976 to 64.5 million tons by 1990 and to 107.9 reality traffic amounted to only 39.5 million tons
declining by an average The projected 1990 traffic For example,
1.8 percent annually during the preceding mix implied no major changes coal and coke would still from the 1976
decade.
base year situation. percent of total traffic,
represent over 55
the majority destined
for upper basin markets. after 1990,
Petroleum fuels follow with about a 15 percent share; however, petroleum traffic development traffic
was expected to drop off sharply due to conservation and energy sources. Aggregate and non-metallic mineral to the traffic its in
of alternative
increases would result
largely from greater shipments
Pittsburgh
BEA area from middle and upper basin sources. an upbound direction) traffic
Chemical
(also moving primarily in relative iron ore,
was predicted to double Finally,
share of total commodity iron, and steel traffic
by 2040.
the increases
demands would consist primarily of raw for the upper basin area.
materials and intermediate
inputs destined
Prior Studies
When Huntington District 1980,
prepared the Gallipolis
replacement study in available for
there were no other prior projections of waterway traffic However,
the Ohio River System.
projections were available for the Ohio River
mainstem from the Ohio River 1968.
Basin Comprehensive Study which was completed in traffic on the Ohio River would
That study projected that total
increase at an average annual 2.6 percent
rate of 3.2 percent between 1964 and 1990 and Substantial increases in traffic were
for the period 1990-2020.
projected for each of the major commodity groups. 1990 traffic traffic, traffic close as it
Assuming that the projected system
for the mainstem represented about 74 percent of the total did in 1964, the Huntington District (217.8
estimated 1990 system divided by 0,74), very
projections
of about 294 million tons
to the 1990 projection under the Nathan analysis of 297 million tons.
Althouýgh a for the 1990-2020 projection
slight
dampening of the 1964-1990
growth rate was projected
period,
the rate was significantly higher than the long-term The Nathan study predicted an increase in
from the Nathan study.
total system traffic
of only 0.9 percent annually over the 36
1990-2020 period.
As stated earlier,
the comparable ORB Comprehensive projection for the mainThus, the more recent Nathan projections
stem Ohio was 2.6 percent per year. represented a more conservative
long-range outlook.
In
summary,
the Huntington District
examined a varietLy of forecasting through the Gallipolis
techniques locks. firms traffic
to project
future movements of traffic
The choice of theoretical (CONSAD, Battelle,
technique employed by the three consulting was critical to their final estimates of activity, shifting
and Nathan)
because of varying assumptions
regarding economic
production and consumption patterns, District's selection of Nathan's
and modal shares.
The Huntington "most probable"
supply-demand analysis as the
scenario was based on a detailed and thorough examination of the methodological strengths and weaknesses incorporated in of each of the three studies. the Nathan study were varied and were employed as well.
Published data sources extensive,
and interview and expert opinion techniques
While the Nathan projections the Huntington District's
represented the "best estimate" at the time of the forecast of future traffic levels and
analysis,
turned out to be significantly overestimated due to unanticipated national international economic effort was exhaustive conditions. However, the Huntington District's
overall trends. by any
and competent and reflected prevailing economic cannot be captured realistically assumptions may be used to
All exogeneous macroeconomic variables forecasting determine a technique,
although alternative
likely range of possible futures.
5. Study,
Monongahela River Navigation System, Pittsburgh District,
Locks and Dams 7 and 8 Feasibility January 1984.
Ohio River Division,
At the time this study was conducted waterborne
traffic
on the
Monongahela River exceeded that of any other component of the Ohio River System except carried is coal is for the Ohio River mainstem itself. accounting The predominant commodity Most of the
bituminous coal,
for 85% of total tonnage.
shipped in
a downbound direction and used both to generate electricity the steel-making plants (in of the Pittsburgh
at downstream power plants and in industrial complex,
Other commodities transported
descending order of
37
importance)
dre aggregates
(limestone,
phosphate,
cement,
sand,
and gravel),
petroleum products,
iron and steel products,
and chemicals.
The study conducted by the Pittsburgh District projections produced by Robert R. Nathan Associates,
relied on commodity Projected Demands
flow
for
Waterway Traffic,
Ohio River Navigation System, yar for historic
eH;r,
1970-2040. Projections
The Nathan study were developed for waterborne
used 19/6 as the L'u-s
based on an evaluation of the probable commodities, probable an analysis of the basin's
future market demands
resource base of these commodities, of the modes of
long-term production levels, involved in
and a forecast
transportation
moving these
commodities from production areas to
consumption areas. provided above in
A more detailed explanation of Nathan's methodology is the review of the Ohio River Navigation System report.
The Pittsburgh District
updated Nathan's 1976 projections Inc. in These
in
1981, figures
in
collaboration with GAI Consultants, incorporated "local perspectives" local industrial
"Nathan-adjusted"
the overall methodology;
namely,
consultation with variations between Basin) methodology,
representatives
to determine potential (Ohio River
local shipping patterns and the basinwide and to ascertain near-term plans for in
for specific commodity the Nathan-adjusted
movements. projections consumption requirements electric-arc
Emerging market trends accounted include
increasing export movements,
diversification of coal and the coal increased
from the steel industry to the energy sector, for generating the additional electricity
to support
steel production.
The Monongahela waterborne traffic
Locks and Dams
/ and 8 study forecasted
increasing
on the Monongahela River
to 1990 with growth rates 1990, when traffic was
averaging 2.8 percent annuallY
from 1976 through
predicted to reach 60 million tons. decreasing rate, traffic
Thereafter growth would continue at a through 2040. In reality
averaging 0.8 percent annually
on the Monongahela declined throughout much of the 1980's after 39.9 millioin tons in 1976 in 1989. (adjusted data). from
reaching an all-time high of Traffic did increase
to 38.4 million tons powvtr
The demand for coal in the 1980s was
new electricity-
gentraitieg
plants coming on-li nt ý8
expected to drive slow growth for all
total
traffic
figures
upward.
After
1990,
however,
very
energy-related
commodities was expected as alternative Table lý and Figures 1, 2, and 3
fuels and energy sources come depict commodity and lock traffic
into play.
projections on the Monongahela
through 2040.
In
summary,
Pittsburgh District employed Nathan's supply-demand analysis commerce in the Ohio River Basin to project movements Nathan's detailed and assumptions about future of
of future waterborne traffic
through Monongahela
Locks 7 and 8.
methodologically
sound investigation made reasonable
production and consumption patterns and modal shares by the Huntington District and Dam project. in its
they also were selected Locks
economic analysis of the Gallipolis incorporated in
Published data sources
the Nathan study were
varied and extensive, employed as well. and GAI Consultants forecasts.
and interview and expert opinion techniques were interviews conducted by the Pittsburgh District in the
Additional
insured that local perspectives were incorporated
This also should have helped to update were based on 1976 base year data. represented the However,
the Nathan projections,
which
while the Nathan projections their
"best estimate" at the time of Pittsburgh's analysis, levels in
forecast of future traffic overestimated. rates; tons. traffic Traffic
the 1980's turned out to be greatly
levels have failed to keep pace with predicted growth
actually declined from the 1976 base year level of 39.9 million time of
This downward trend should have been evident by the in 1984. However,
Pittsburgh's analysis
the significance and magnitude of the did not adjust their (in this case, forecasts recession,
decline was not yet clear accordingly.
and the District events
Again unpredictable in the national
a national
structural shifts competition)
and regional
economies,
and foreign
have proved elusive to anticipate and to model.
(9
0i
K~r
r-i
0i
r,~
~~~
N
0
-1
C
-H
U)U)
ý4 H
o Ll
WN U) CDA
w D '-D
0 H
C) Hv0 LA
*
H H H H
C- H
'.H
rcr2
H U) -1 -q
0
00 N PL4L0 )
000
02
0
~
4C-
'.
A
CO
'o 0 4-J 2
4--H
U~~
(1 U) C) C C) r4 C) LA ( LA C,
Y
*H.
~
-M
j00-,
v-
C--LAm0 r
0
U) wndEi4
-H4
>
F-4
5-02 HA 002I(
0
J.0-) Q
0
l 0
N
AL
0~w
n
w
()
U) '
4
.
o
E-4
co
C) 0. o
0
o)w
CuC C
n
(
Oi
N
~
4-H U.
4U
mO
H3 LiA -
0)
4-'V
J
0) U4
CrHO dr -H r3
-9 10
Ft~~o C0~~ W.HU)
tU) HH
) H '0 H~~~~~~4 A)4 '.0~
C H4-
*a:J
~~~
~
'-OD
44U 0 rd
QU
ul iU
u'C
0
'0
c~
C-
o
~
0
H3 m W tql 00 )
rd r- ý 2~J
f
M 5li 0l
0~ 4J
-
ji-
N
C1 0r
024 5-n
H, U)) U)
ý C--I0) 0 ca-i 0
2 H 5--
-HJ
Ii020
(1)
J-)
)
0rcl::
4
H4ý
Q
-
.
fd
W)
40r-
r
0
0
0
04
cri
C)
04
C
0
QY)
cZ
C))
CO
oz
oC0
F-c
U)
C))
00
0) C00
-
Q?
-
w cc
0
L
0
D
U.
Uf)
C/3
0
LO
0
z
z
<~
41
C)C
LLL
LL
0l
0 0<
LLI
Z
06
al)
C))
0
Z
0~0
~0
cc 0<
U
D LO
0o~ =0
0
0a L
-'
C,
LL 42~
c',i
0
I
10
b 0 <
04 W 0)
0CiM z0z 00<< wc
zr
Z
0
LOJ L-
o
W F-
00 Z 0
Z CL
z
0o 0 0 0
z-
I
6.
Lower Ohio River Navigation Feasibility Study IL-KY (Mouth to Louisville District, Ohio River Division, August 1985,
Cumberland River),
Revised November 1985.
This report documents
the results of a
feasibility
level study conducted
for the purpose of determining the feasibility environmental
and the economic and along this reach of future
effects of making navigation improvements Part of the economic evaluation for Locks & Dams 52 and 53, 16).
the Ohio River. traffic in flows
involved projecting
the existing navigation structures
the study area (Table
The Corps study relied heavily on Robert R. comprehensive report, Projections
Nathan Associates' Transportation.
of Demand for Waterborne
Ohio River Basin, a long-term
1976-2040
(described earlier).
The Nathan study represented demands founded on an
(1976-2040)
evaluation of waterway traffic for waterborne probable commodities,
analysis of market demands base of these commodities,
the basin's resource and a
long-term production levels,
forecast of the modes of transportation involved in from production areas to consumption areas.
moving these commodities
Ohio River Basin waterborne traffic to 1980, growing from 51.3 million tons The Basin is petroleum fuels, In addition, a major in
increased nearly fourfold from 1945 1945 to 193.7 million tons while and in it 1980
(Table 17). "imports" minerals.
"exporter" of coal and grain, chemical fertilizers, is
chemicals,
ores,
72% of Ohio River traffic
local to the system.
Over the entire projection period (1976 traffic is expected to
to 2040)
Ohio River System
increase by 119% (Table 9). as coal traffic
Growth will occur at a 1990. Traffic was 1990,
diminishing rate, expected to
however,
plateaus after
increase at an average annual
rate of 2.8 perceir
through
thereafter averaging only 0.8 percent annually.
Because
the Nathan projections do not reflect Waterway (TTWW) in 1985, traffic
the opening of the projections were obtained in this study. Projected
Tennessee-Tombigbee for the TTWW
from Mobile District and incorporated 44
TABLE 16 PROJECTED TRAFFIC DEMAND FOR LOCKS AND DAMS 52 AND 53, 1995-2045 LOWER OHIO RIVER BASIN, (Thousands of Tons)
Projected
Commodity Group
Locks and Dam 52 Coal and Coke
1995
2015
2045
43,453
57,298
75,254
Petroleum Fuels Crude Petroleum Aggregates Grains Chemicals and Chemical Fertilizers Ores and Minerals Iron Ore, Iron and Steel All Others Totals Locks and Dam 53 Coal and Coke Petroleum Fuels Crude Petroleum
Aggregates
8,177 744 3,506 5,454 11,169 9,130 6,602 13,864 102,099 23,904 8,177 744
2,582
9,209 592 4,014 6,736 17,984 16,174 10,564 15,655 139,279 31,314 9,209 592
2,996
8,718 263 4,756 8,556 26,563 27,239 15,980 18,929 186,258 40,562 8,718 263
3,453
Grains Chemicals and Chemical Fertilizers Ores and Minerals Iron Ore, Iron and Steel All Others Totals Source:
5,454 11,169 9,130 6,600 13,863 81,623
6,736 17,984 16,174 10,562 16,654 112,221
8,556 26,563 27,239 15,977 18,917 150,248
Tabulation of Tow Cost Model shipment lists.
IL--KY, AUGUST 1985
LOWER OHIO RIVER NAVIGATION FEASIBILITY STUDY,
45
ro
UQ
CN
CN0M*C'ý
C 0
ON
0
02 4-3 H ýD:j 00 Cl) m 1~ Y H 0H C co CV 0 C! (41 41 0
0
00
H
0
LI H 4-)
0 rd
)a
~0 ~U
-4 co z U
0
~rn m
W Hý\ H
Ln r-i
-H
z
0U
2
r.-0pH2C 0) 02 104 U1
H'4f
0
2
4.J r:
W0l4
H
0
0C~
U Hr
0
0 r0HHI 0H W (Ni DODCOC rHq 0 W H C 0)
-
0
0d 0)0
4-
() a
0J
4400
0ý0 rO
r-i
$ -H t)
)
'dW1:
i-i'8
02 t
041
0
() ý
Mý
[ .$
ý -I
0
0 0
46
traffic traffic
was screened
to eliminate duplicate million tons in
tonnages.
In
addition, in
coal 2040) as
was added (7.4
1995 and 13.6 million tons
a result of an update District in 1983.
to the Nathan projections made by the Pittsburgh reflected new coal markets in the Upper
These additions 1976,
Ohio River Basin since
the base year for the Nathan study.
The Tennessee-Tombigbee project area. First,
Waterway has a dual impact on traffic in traffic
through the
there was a small increase
through Locks &
Dams 52 and 53 because of new movements between the TTWW and the Mississippi River. Second, the opening of the TTWW enabled Ohio River shipments bound for
the eastern Gulf Coast to use the TTWW instead of the Mississippi River.
Louisville District's TTWW traffic and additional
approach in
modifying the Nathan projections with
coal movements was found acceptable and reliable 1985. In hindsight, despite jower than
at the time of its forecast close initial
publication in TTWW tonnages,
the Lower Ohio study traffic
figures appear compared
to target based on 1990 PMS tonnage of 99 million at L&D 52, of 102
with a 1995 forecast growth in coal traffic.
million tons and in view of anticipated continued
7.
Kanawha River Navigation Study, Huntington District,
Winfield Lock Replacement Ohio River Division,
Interim
Feasibility Report,
September 1986.
Traffic
growth on the Kanawha River more
than tripled from 1940 to 1980,
reaching 14.7 million tons in by 1989 Dam, (Table 18).
1980 and an all-time high of 18.9 million tons traffic transits Winfield Lock and WV. Most of the
Virtually all Kanawha
situated near in
the mouth of the river below Charleston, tonnage is attributable
growth
Kanawha River industries in
to the growth of the coal and Increased and
chemical
the Kanawha Valley
(Figures 4 and 5).
inbound shipments of aggregates consumer use were lesser
and petroleum fuels for industrial to the overall expansion.
contributors
4/
o at
00 Nv
0~F
Ln
N
0D
CD 0
m
r0 ý-
CD 0;
m_0 N Ln
C0
j
L
W)
o.
al It
LA 0
rn
0C0 !2
VNNY
01
m
l
C
AA
CD
C fl CD 1 0 0C0
C
LA
'0 C 0 A 0
oX
'A
Ln
CD
0
0n
U0
U) >
~
C)
0
ao
H
H
4
0
(A
Cý
It on LA
N F'
0 D
0M
L rI CO
LA in pN zL
CD
'0
ý2
C,
?-
0 0
00 0
LA
rNm
-1
lr
0
040
10
;:' A L A CD 0
-l
(d
'
0
o
0l0
10
'4
t-
0.
-ý
00 cUU
E-44
0
~ ~r
~) ~
C2 4 Cý
m 4)C C)
0
09.
00-
0
d )
I
L
L
0
-~ 4.'
48
%Ll
0
LO
0 CM
00
z
00
0Z
0
-
0C),
04
Uej LU 0 0
71,
c
:0 > 0 C0
~LL
0
0
Y-0)>
w
j
0
0
CI)
D
.
-J
C)
zw
0 0
0 -Jo
co
10
0
'qt
0 CV)
0 CM
0 r"J-
0
C.,
-0 c
49
0 0
* *
cmJ
0
* . .0
C4
w
WD
CO)
C*4
CMJ
o
WLO. >4(0 C4 < 0 0...
0
0
z oj
00
LOa
oC
0
00
0
0
I- 0
Z
I-
50
Most Kanawha River tonnage Ohio River.
is
shipped inbound from or outbound to the a function of the types of
This largely external orientation is the resources
industries along the river,
of the basin, industry.
and the location of
product supply and market areas for basin groups that account
Of the four commodity coal moves aggregates, of coal is and
for 96 percent of Kanawha River traffic, while chemicals,
primarily in
a downbound/outbound direction, Due
petroleum move mostly upbound/inbound. traffic over other commodity traffic, percent)
to the predominance slightly
however,
more traffic (47 percent).
shipped out of the area (53
than into the area
Coal traffic steam-electric tributaries.
(59
percent of total
tonnage)
is
primarily destined for
generating plants
located along the Ohio River and its for the steel plants of the tonnage) revolves
Lesser amounts are destined Chemical traffic (16 in
Pittsburgh area.
percent of total
around the large chemical complex Area (MSA) and is
the Charleston Metropolitan Statistical Major origins include the Ohio River, complexes for use in located along the chemical further
primarily inbound. River,
the lower Mississippi Gulf Coast. manufacturing processing.
and the petrochemical
These areas provide basic feedstocks
as well as intermediate chemical products which require Aggregates (15 percent of total traffic)
are used largely in Petroleum fuels (7 the
construction activities percent of total Kanawha Basin, traffic),
around the Charleston area.
consumed by individuals and industry throughout located along the
originate primarily from refining centers
Ohio River and the lower Mississippi
River near Baton Rouge.
Traffic
projections
for the Kanawha River were developed by the by relating the
Navigation Planning Support Center of the Huntington District existing traffic base to indexes of growth in
the specific regions served by Projections series developed
the Kanawha River.
The 1980 OBERS BEA Regional
by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) economic framework for developing
was selected as the demographic and indexes.
regional growth
In
summary,
projections
for Kanawha River traffic
to the year 2050 were
developed by applying OBERS growth indices earnings
for population and industry dock-to-dock commodity
by BEA Lo 1980 base year Waterborne Commerce 51
movement information. a specific
The OBERS index most closely related to the demand for For example, in
type of commodity was used for that commodity. and coke traffic for utility 33 percent), usage,
determining coal were used:
the following indexes wholesale total and retail
population
(weighted
earnings in in
trade and services
(weighted
19 percent),
and earnings
manufacturing an index of
(weighted 48 percent). earnings in
For coal and coke traffic
for export,
the mining industry was used;
for crude petroleum and petroleum for aggregates, earnings in the
fuels traffic,
a population index ,.as used; for grains,
construction industry; (weighted 70 percent) earnings durable in
earnings in
agricultural production for chemicals, earnings in
and population
(weighted 30 percent);
non-durable manufacturing;
and for iron and steel, factor.
manufacturing adjusted by a 0.7 dampening
Destination-BEA area
indices were used for domestic
traffic,
(which was
considered to be demand driven) while origin-BEA area indices were substituted for export These (PE) traffic, which had no destination-BEA area associated with it. movements at the port equivalent level to arrive at projections
indices were applied to 1980 traffic to port equivalent origin-destination
through 2030. percent
Thereafter,
some commodity growth
rates were dampened to 0.7 in making projections that the planning
through 2050 to reflect in the future.
the great uncertainty
that distant
This dampening was to
insure
process would not be biased by large out-year reasonable judgment call by the analyst.
numbers and represented a
The study projects Kanawha River to 53.5 million tons tons. (Table 18). to a 1.8
traffic
to triple
between 1980 and 2050
By 1990 traffic
should reach 22.7 million Coal traffic will
This translates
percent annual growth rate.
increase as a share plants. latter traffic
of total
tonnage due to expanding demands by utility traffic will also increase, traffic. although the
Chemical and aggregates will possess
a declining share of total
Petroleum fuels to
should decrease because ener g sources.
of continuing conservation and conversion of Kanawha Wheeling, River traffic
alternative projected Qol~iihus
The major origins
are and
to remain BEA areas. ,,
the Charleston, Likewise,
Parkersburg,
Huntington,
Lhe major destinations Theeling, 52 Cincinnati,
of traffic
are projected
to remain CharlI
Hfuntingt on,
and Pittsburgh BEA
areas.
Table 18 and Figures 4 and 5 show projected Kanawha River and locks through 2050.
traffic
by
commodities
Although this study's publication date is Corps of Engineers dates back to 1980. to 1980. (COE)
quite
recent,
the historical
Waterborne Commerce data used to generate projections the OBERS BEA regional growth indexes also date for 1990 (22.7 1990
Likewise,
The study's projections of Kanawha River traffic now appear to be realistic in light
million tons) traffic virtually
of the fact that As mentioned earlier,
at Winfield L&D was 21.2 million tons. all the Kanawha River traffic
moves through the Winfield L&D.
Regarding the projection methodology itself, population and earnings growth appears appropriate. in indexes
the applicability of OBERS commodity groups
to most of the
One somewhat ambiguous connection was the relationship the mining industry and future coal export traffic. in modal share,
between earnings Finally, it
while no attempt was made to allow for future shifts is
can be argued that there
no reason to believe that barges would not share of traffic. all Future growth
continue
to carry at least their current presumed to affect
rates were therefore
transportation modes uniformly.
8.
Forecast of Future Ohio River Basin Waterway Traffic and II, Navigation Planning Center,
1986
- 2050, Ohio River
Volumes I Division,
Huntington District,
May 1990.
The purpose of the study, to project probable
as stated in
the introduction
to Volume I,
was
future levels of demand for waterway Projections
transport on the Ohio
River Navigation System (ORS). each navigable 2050. river, and each
were developed for the entire ORS, for the period 1986 -
lock and dam project
The projections were estimated improvement
to help guide the Corps of Engineers' lock and dam the future.
waterway
planning program by indicating which traffic
projects would be most likely to experience Through this assessment of future problems, improve the flow of waterway traffic.
congestion in
plans then could be developed to
53
The ORS includes the Ohio River and the navigable portions of the Allegheny, Monongahela, Kanawha, Big Sandy, Green, Tennessee, Cumberland, and
Kentucky Rivers.
The ORS serves as a major transportation link for the coal and provides to both the Between
mines and industries located within the Ohio River Basin (ORB) direct access, through the Mississippi River and tributaries,
Midwest and the deep-draft ports of the Great Lakes and Gulf Coast. 1940 and 1986, million tons,
total waterway traffic grew from 51.2 million tons to 223.9 representing an average annual growth rate of 3.3 percent. however. Average annual Cumberland, and This
growth was not distributed evenly throughout ORB,
tonnage increases on the southern tributaries of the Green, Tennessee Rivers ranged from 10.2 percent to 6.6 percent,
while the northern
tributaries experienced growth ranging from 3.1 percent on the Kanawha to negative 0.2 percent on the Allegheny River. Traffic increased by an average
4.2 percent annually on the Ohio River mainstem during the 1940-86 period.
Major commodities on the ORS include coal and coke, petroleum fuels, chemicals, and grains,
aggregates,
which together represent about 88
percent of total tonnage.
Coal and coke constitute by far the largest single accounting for 60 percent of the total
-
commodity group moving on the system,
1986 traffic and growing by an average annual 3.1 percent during the 1940 1986 period. With the exception of crude petroleum traffic, which dropped
sharply with the opening of a crude petroleum pipeline into the AshlandHuntington area in the early 1970's, all of the major commodity groups grains, 10.6 percent annually; petroleum fuels, 1.9 percent
exhibited traffic growth since 1940: chemicals,
7.8 percent per annum; ores, aggregates,
6.1 percent per year;
3.3 percent annually; annually. internal,
2.5 percent per year; and steel,
Approximately 63 percent of waterborne commerce in
the ORS is
meaning that both the waterside origin and the waterside destination About 24 percent of the traffic is outbound and 13
are within the ORS. percent is inbound.
While The share of inbound traffic has remained the share of outbound traffic has doubled.
relatively constant since 1970,
Forecast Methodologies Vhile the methodologies used in developing traffic demand forecasts were specific to each individual commodity, two basic methods were used:
54
one for
utility
related commodities
(utility
coal,
and lime and limestone Some
for steps were
desulfurization),
and another
for the remaining commodities.
common to both methods: development
examination
and completion of industry forecasts, and categorizing each receiving dock
of base year traffic
flows,
by geographic and end use market. to base year traffic levels,
The development of growth indices to apply differed between utility related
however,
commodities and all
other commodities.
Non-Utility Commodity Forecasts In - 2050, Volume I of Forecast of Future Ohio River Basin Waterway Traffic 1986
forecasts were developed for each of the ORB industries that generate of waterway commodity traffic: agriculture, chemicals, petroleum refining, nonferrous metals, steel, and
significant amounts quarrying,
construction,
paper industries. employed. first
Both top-down and bottom-up approaches
to forecasting were
Top-down techniques begin with national to the industry/regional
level forecasts which are
disaggregated
level and then to the company/ originate at the
local level. company/ levels. national
Bottom-up techniques,
on the other hand,
local level and are then aggregated Both approaches are used to insure level
to the regional and national general consistency between for individual company
forecasts and the unique prospects
operations.
The horizon.
1986
-
2050 forecast
period has a short-term and a long-term time to
The short-term
extends to the year 2000 and generally corresponds industry forecasts. The long-
the planning horizon of most of the available
term projection extending from 2000 to 2050 relies primarily on 1985 OBERS top-down projections OBERS forecasts produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and earnings by industry. (BEA). BEA's
include both employment
Employment
forecasts are based on demographic participation earnings through turn rates. Earnings
estimates and projected labor force level
forecasts are derived from national to the various
forecasts which have been distributed the use of an input/output model.
industry sectors are in
State and county projections growth to
founded on the projection of ratios of state employment and county ratio of employment to state totals.
national growth,
55
Calendar year 1986 was selected as the base year for forecasting purposes. Actual waterway traffic, is while serving as a starting but one visible component point for Before
identifying waterway demands,
of demand.
applying growth indices to the 1986 base level, made to insure that 1) reported year chosen was a representative dampening demands. affected areas and, traffic one;
necessary adjustments were the
for the base year was accurate; and 3) system constraints were not traffic in flows in
System constraints act to reduce if left unaccounted for,
the
would result
understated
levels of demand.
Two major potential system constraints were identified:
the small navigation projects located on the upper Tennessee and the lower Monongahela Rivers.
Formal mail surveys were conducted
in
both areas.
Upper Tennessee River study of
surveys were completed as part of a 1987 reconnaissance-level Chickamauga, Watts Bar, and Ft. Loudoun locks and dams. traffic
These surveys
indicated that 5.7 million tons of additional in
might move on the river Surveys of potential
the absence of constraints on the upper Tennessee. River shippers were conducted in
Monongahela
the spring of 1988 as part of the
subject study. Monongahela tons of traffic Monongahela were
Surveys were mailed to over 100 firms identified as potential Respondents indicated that an additional constraints 7.3 million
River users.
might move on the river system if removed.
on the lower
Major waterway users were contacted in traffic patterns
an effort
to identify changes
in
since 1986 or changes expected
to occur in the near future.
Extensive
telephone surveys of major basin shippers were conducted for each of In addition, each of the Ohio River's four Corps in
the nine commodity groups. Districts
and the Tennessee Valley Authority provided further assistance traffic flows.
identifying new waterway current and potential
As a result of these contacts with destination patterns were Comparisons of
shippers, traffic
a number of origin/
altered and some additional historic
was added to the base.
averages with the base traffic of base traffic
figures also were made to help insure
the reasonableness
levels.
56
After base traffic the
levels were determined,
the next impcrrant origin/
step was
identification and categorization of each of the unique
destination commodity movements This involved identifying
on the ORS by geographic and end use markets. determining the market it served. best
the shipper,
represented,
and examining the market(s)
the shipper
Classification simply through involveO,
of end use markets
for some commodity movements was difficult
the use of dock name descriptions. docks and probable shipper
When sizeable movements were in an attempt
-hippers were contacted
to identify the
and classify
he particular movoment.
The objective
in
classifying all
movements
according to appropriate end and/or to
use market was to determine which of the previously assembled industry CBERS-based forecasts were appropriate in tiie development
of growth indices
apply to the base traffic
level for each commodity.
Final classifications from an industry forecast industry, the finest for
corresponded to the finest level of detail available standpoint. For example, involved industry, in the case of the utility
level of detail the construtction paper industry,
identifying specific utility
operating companies; and for the
a particular region of the count-y; type of paper involved.
the specific
By associating, traffic numerous projtctions industries
or "keying,"
each movement to a particular
market, for the
for any one commodity became
the product of forecasts In
representing both end use ard geographic markets. for ex-mple, projects, lime plants, utilities, steel mills,
ease of limestone, plants,
cement
water revetment
and highway construction
projects acted as markets was
markets for the different movements. accounted fr in
Geographic variation in
that the industrial make-up of any given geographic area '-he pattern oE flows and prospects destination BEA industry projections for growth were. in in the
necessarily near-term. detrees,
influerne_
Additionally, incorporated
forecasts for all
varying
into the traffic
commodities.
A final growth
procedure was the selection and application of appropriate End use classifications factors or "kevs" for each commodi ty movement in in ident i
tii
indices.
represented determining sreci-fic growth indices
o
ard selecting For v market. keys were
for cich movmeint
the (R)S.
used in
developing the traffic
projections.
The keys most commonly related of the commodity in
to
industries which acted as the shipper, question. In turn, the
or consumer,
indices were based on industry market forecasts or by BEA. The BEA forecasts are presented to as OBERS variables. A
developed by the industry itself, in the
form of industry sector variables referred
summary of the industry forecasts traffic projections in
and OBERS variables used in
developing the Table 19.
each commodity group are presented in
Short run indices when available. specific. specificity 2050) In
(1986-2000)
relied most heavily on industry
forecasts,
some cases the industry forecasts were regionally indices reflecting this geographic long run (2000-
Separate keys and companion were created.
These same keys were used to select
indices as well.
Indices used in
long run projections were generally These variables relate to regions
tied to a limited set of OBERS-based variables. broad industry sectors and the smaller BEA areas, tied economically to a central metropolitan area. (population, manufacturing retail
which are geographic
While only nine OBERS durable earnings,
variables were used, nondurable earnings, transportation employment)
earnings,
construction earnings, earnings,
trade carnings, and mining
and public utility
mining earnings,
they were transformed
into as many indices
as there were
destination BEA's for waterway shipments.
Utility
Commodity Forecasts Utility coal, and lime and limestone for desulfurization, are the These in 1986.
waterborne
commodities most directly affected by utility represented roughly 48 percent of total forecasts is the most critical
forecasts. ORS traffic component forecasts
three commodities The development
of coal
for utility
commodity projections
because
the lime and limestone factors
are generally inputs to coal of
arrived at by applying constant consumption consumption forecasts. the tonnage in In addition, utility
for these
coal accounts for 99.0 percent
this group.
Projected shipments of coal by utilities consumption, the current share of coal traffic interviews and surveys. 58
were based on projected coal moving by barge, This and the
results of industry
involved obtaining the
TABLE 19 SUMMARY OF INDUSTRY FORECASTS AND OBERS-BASED VARIABLES USED IN WATERWAY PROJECTIONS Commodity Croups Coal Short-term Forecasts Utility Industry Coal Industry Steel Industry Long-term Forecasts Population Retail Trade Earnings Manufacturing Earnings Mining Earnings Mining Employment Durable Earnings Population Population Construction Earnings Nondurable Earnings Durable Earnings Population Retail Trade Earnings Manufacturing Earnings US Dept of Agriculture Population Aluminum Industry US Dept of Agriculture Population Nondurable Earnings Construction Earnings Zinc Industry US Forest Service Population
Petroleum Fuels Crude Petroleum Aggregates
Population Population Construction Industry Steel Industry Utility Industry
Grains
US Dept of Agriculture Population Aluminum Industry US Dept of Agriculture Population Nondurable Earnings Construction Industry Zinc Industry US Forest Service Population Steel Industry Steel Industry Manufacturing Earnings US Dept of Agriculture Population US Forest Service Construction Industry Nondurable Earnings Aluminum Industry Zinc Industry Utility Industry Durable Earnings Steel Industry
Chemicals
Ores and Minerals
Iron and Steel
Durable Earnings Manufacturing Earnings US Dept of Agriculture Population US Forest Service Construction Earnings Nondurable Earnings Aluminum Industry Zinc Industry Transportation and Public Utility Earnings Durable Earnings
All Others
SOURCE: Forecast (Huntington. •'V
of Future Ohio River Basin Waterway Traffic, 1986 U.S. Army Engineer District, Huntington, 1990). 59
-
2050,
short-term electricity these to BEA forecasts
demand forecasts developed by each utility of regional population and economic requirements growth.
and relating These
forecasts were used to develop electricity involved in ORS coal traffic.
for each utility
The next step involved converting electricity generation by fuel type.
requirements
into
Projected generating mix was based on each utility's efficiencies of each. Net
mix of capacity by fuel type and the relative capacity additions plants was
from new plant construction and the retirement of old The results of this effort were the ORS.
factored into the analysis.
projections of electric
generation by coal-fired plants in
Electricity generation was then converted historic and barge conversion rates for each plant.
into coal consumption based on The link between coal consumption
receipts was based on the share of 1986 coal consumption barged to indicated by the utilities.
each plant unless otherwise
The coal conditions.
forecasting methodology pertains
to the most probable
traffic
These
projections were bracketed with high and low forecasts the most probable condition for the high
estimated to be 15 percent above forecasts forecasts. minus
and 15 percent below the most probable condition for the low Huntington District bracketed the most probable case by plus or
15 percent based on trend literature.
line analysis and review of pertinent a trend line to
forecasting historic
Regression analysis was used to fit between 1950 and 1986.
traffic
observations
The derived regression
equation yielded a good fit Related statistical tests
between the
trend line and the observations.
indicated that 95 percent of the historical this trend line were within plus or minus 15 Further confirmation for the plus or minus Council. 15 The
observations deviating about percent of the trend line. percent technique came
from the National Electric Reliability of high and low forecasts
Counci I establishes below its because represent~ most of the
all enrv.elope
15 percent above and
probable
forecast. of utilities fhlt
The Council's convention has significance to ORS waterborne and aggregates traffic. Utilities
importance aire of
a lI-,r.:
ORS coal
traffic,
6()
Forecast Results The projections for total system traffic Table 20. demand and each of the nine Total traffic is expected to
commodity groups are presented in increase
from 223.9 million tons in
1986 to 315.9 million tons by the year (96
2000 (an increase of 41 percent); percent growth); percent). Over
to 437.9 million tons by the year 2030 of 145 is
and to 548.7 million tons by 2050 (an increase the 64-year period from 1986 to 2050, total traffic
projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.4 percent. graphically portrays projections the level of ORS traffic
Figure 6
from 1940 to 1986 and
from 1986 to 2050.
The Huntington District
bracketed the projections
in
Table 20 with high
and low forecasts set at 15 percent above and below the most probable condition. Projected values for total ORS traffic ranged between 268.5 and between 466.4 and traffic demands
million tons and 363.3 million tons for the year 2000, 631.0 million tons in were projected scenario, scenario. the year 2050.
Between 1986 and 2050,
to increase
at an annual rate of 1.2 percent in and 1.6 percent in
the low the high
1.4 percent in
the most probable,
Summary In summary, the Huntington District future traffic employed a variety of techniques on the Ohio River System. Each industry in
attempting to project Commodities were first was in
movements
aggregated into industry related groups.
turn examined and its Base year traffic
likely demand for waterborne shipments was flows for each commodity group were adjusted to and potential shifts in waterway flows.
forecast. account
for system constraints
Movements
were categorized by the geographic Various
location of the destination and based on
end use market.
short-term and long-term growth indices, and OBERS population, employment,
industry market forecasts variables, group.
and earnings
were applied to adjusted base traffic
levels for each commodity
Finally,
projections were bracketed with high and low forecasts condition based
estimated to be 15 percent above and below the most probable or, trend line analysis and review of pertinent
forecasting literature.
61
TABLE 20 OHIO RIVER NAVIGATION SYSTEM PROJECTED COMMODITY TRAFFIC, 1986-2050 (Millions of Tons) Annual % Change 1986-2050 1.4 0.2 0.2 1.6 2.1 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.4
-
Commodity Group Coal Petro Fuels Crude Petro Aggregates Grains Chemicals Ores Steel Misc. TOTAL
Actual 1986 135.2 12.9 0.6 28.1 10.3 12.4 3.1 5.8 15.5 223.9
2000 189.6 13.3 0.6 38.2 19.0 17.9 4.1 10.4 22.8 315.9
2010 207.0 13.8 0.6 45.0 21.8 19.9 4.7 11.5 26.6 350.9
Projected 2020 216.6 14.2 0.6 54.5 25.2 21.9 5.4 12.5 30.3 381.0
2030 254.4 14.4 0.6 61.6 29.1 23.8 6.0 13.3 34.5 437.9
2050 321.4 15.0 0.7 75.7 39.2 28.0 7.8 15.3 45.6 548.7 1986
SOURCE: Forecast of Future Ohio River Basin Waterwav Traffic, (Huntington, WV: USAED Huntington, 1990).
2050,
The Huntington District's The commodity-specific characteristics growth
overall effort was exhaustive and competent. indices selected were based on the the underlying forces influencing traffic
of the commodity,
levels for that commodity, origin/ destination flows.
and a detailed examination of the commodity's Published data sources were varied and extensive, opinion techniques as well. to begin to assess While
and the District
used interview and expert is still too distant
the forecast horizon the projections, indicate levels
the accuracy of
the most recently published data on waterborne commerce continues to grow and projected probable The application traffic
that ORS traffic
for the year 2000 could well be met. and earnings growth for such a indices
of OBERS
employment appropriate
to most of the commodity groups appears Extending a projection some degree of variables.
loneg-term most
planninig horizon.
envelope above flexibilitv
an0d beilow thi torcss oine
Iike lv scuinario builds exogenous
into L
toptre
macroeconomic
The only cileaIr duwhac1:k lo
the Hunýt Liing ton approach might be the cost and time
iihile
re qu ired to deve 1i) ýýuch I Lo] e c tionts.
irk, alwayvs prefterafbl,..
forecasts of this sophistication commininit rkesources of this magnitude
nut
,1 I oft ieiCen carn
0e!
0 0
CE
04
WO
04
Cfl0
>4
0
LLO
0 0 0
(D
LC)
0 00
0 0
IVCIO
0 0
N
0
0w 0
63
9.
Supplement to the Environmental
.
Impact Statement: Navigation,
TennesseeUS Army April, 1981.
Tombigbee Waterway Engineer Districts
Alabama and Mississippi, Alabama,
Mobile,
and Nashville,
Tennessee,
This report relied on economic data from the 1966 Reevaluation of Project Economics and 1976 Restudy of Project Costs and Benefits, District Waterway shippers traffic studies. (TTWW) both Mobile
The 1966 report's estimates of future Tennessee-Tombigbee were drawn from interviews and correspondence with
traffic
and receivers
during the period 1957-1960, Tonnage
and supplemented by a
survey conducted during 1964-65.
of 7.5 million tons was increasing roughly metals
projected on the TTWW for 1966 to 39.5 million tons by 2026. equal proportions) and ores,
(had the waterway been operational), The four predominant commodities (in
were predicted to be petroleum and products,
coal,
and chemicals.
In
1975 Mobile District
contracted with A.T.
Kearney,
Inc.,
to perform a
navigation benefit Mobile's receivers potential 1976 in
study of the TTWW. Kearney
This effort became
the foundation for
report.
identified
approximately 1000 shippers and This population yielded over 500
the waterway tributary area.
commodity movements.
These were screened to eliminate movements duplicates, and those This
that wouldn't use
the waterway for various reasons,
under 6000 tons per year,
leaving approximately 250 potential movements. to determine
group was then subjected to a detailed rate analysis ton, if any, that would be realized by utilization
savings per
of the TTWW.
Transportation
savings were determined by comparing the rate per ton for moving a commodity on an alternative TTWW. route or mode versus the rate to move the commodity on the
Movements were not included unless savings were at least greater than mode (rail or truck) or greater than $0.15/ton left 121
$0.50/ton versus an alternative versus alternative movements
barge routings
on another waterway. per ton criteria
This process
that met the minimum savings benefits.
and became the basis
for project navigation annually movements percent through for thei
The Corps updated these 121 movements the rates for individual routes. line-haul Finally, a 10 for
1980 by reanalvzing
TT"WT and alternative
modes and/or
cont irgeiien
factor was added to the total volumes. 6,4
tonnage
to account
unidentified and smai 1 traffic
The methodology the first percent.
yielded a forecast of 28.5 million tons of traffic (expected to be 1987),
in 74
year of operation Furthermore,
of which coal comprised
"unconstrained" TTWW traffic while the expected
was expected to reach 111 would reach 41
million tons by 2036,
"projected" traffic
million tons by the same year.
(The difference between unconstrained and limitations of the channels and lock A key 1987) year
projected can be explained by capacity and dam dimensions issue is
of the TTWW and Black Warrior-Tombigbee Waterways.) levels (beyond in
how Kearney arrived at higher future traffic
when their shipper survey approach or so of operation.
identified only movements
the first
Projections
of future TTWW traffic
were made by relating each base year indicator that was Initial tonnage in the
commodity movement on the TTWW to a recognized economic
most closely associated with the commodity's use or demand. levels were multiplied by OBERS Series applicable industry and region E projections of total
earnings movement.
involved in
each particular
Usually
the demand industry and region OBERS earnings insufficient informtion was available, in
indices were used,
unless industry and
which case the supply
region indices were applied. on the earnings index for
For example,
pulp and paper movements were based the appropriate demand region. OBERS forecast except of
the paper industry in
All commodities projections coal movements for export, Interior,
relied on the appropriate
which were estimated using the Department
Bureau of Mines projections industr'.
for coal exports and projected growth in (coal, farm products,
the foreign steel metallic ores, constitute
Five key commodities
pulp and paper products,
and chemicals)
were expected to projected average in
over 90 percent
of future traffic.
Kearney's
annual growth rates Table 21.
for traffic
in various TTWW commodities are presented
In
summary,
the forecast undertaken by Kearney Management Consultants projected initial technique. operational Rate traffic levels using a
and Mobile District
shipper survey and interview determine commerce. industryif
analysis was performed to for potential relied on
the TTWIW provided a least-cost of traffic levels OBERS in
alternative
Projections
later years generally indexes. Initiallv,
and region-specific
growth 65
this approach
TABLE 21 TENNESSEE-TOMBIGBEE WATERWAY TTWW COMMODITY FORECAST
Average Annual Commodity Growth Rate (Percent)
Chemicals 1.0 3.9
Forecast Used
Clay, Concrete and Stone Coal (Domestic) Fabricated Metals Food Products Marine Products Metallic Ores Miscellaneous Nonmettalic Minerals
(Domestic) Petroleum
2.4 2.5 1.2 2.5 2.2 1.4 1.4 1.9 1.3 -
3.5 2.9 2.7 2.3 3.1 2.2
2.9 2.4
OBERS Series E for total earnings in the applicable industry(s) and region(s) involved in each
particular movement.
Primary Metals (Domestic) Pump, Paper and Allied
Products (Domestic)
1.4 2.0 -
3.2
2.8
Forest Products
2.7 Department of the Interior, Bureau of Mines projections for coal exports and projected growth in the foreign steel industry. OBERS Series E for total earnings in the applicable supply industry and region for each particular movement.
Coal
(Export)
2.9
Farm Products (Export) Nonmetallic Minerals (Export) Primary Metals (Export) Pulp, Paper and Allied Products (Export)
1.0 - 4.1 0.7 1.6 - 1.8 2.4 2.6
SOURCE:
A. T. Kearney, Inc. Study for 1981 Tenn-Tom Study (Page VI-38, Table VI-10 of Report)
66
would seem methodologically immediate traffic future. In
appropriate
for forecasting
traffic
in
the
contrast
to the District's 1985;
expectations, in
however, 1986; 3.6 in 1989.
was only 1.4 million tons in in 1987;
2.2 million tons
million tons
8.8 million tons in
1988 and 4.3 million tons
Although forecasting constructed, dollar,
the OBERS projections probably represented the best long-term designed, and
tools available when the TTWW was being planned, fundamental changes in the price of energy,
the value of the
competition in
foreign agricultural markets,
and the structure of the of the OBERS growth
national economy have drastically undermined the validity indices dating from the early 1970s. In addition,
the Kearney analysis did time for regional the new waterway.
not appear to fully consider the potential transition industries to alter transportation practices to utilize costs,
Many industries have fixed assets, particular
and contracts associated with a
transportation mode and may require some time to evaluate and adopt The unique character of the project was a further analytical that there was no historic traffic base. analysis Economic forecasts for
alternatives. challenge in
new projects
require a regional modal split
for forecasting shipments
and receipts on the waterway, finally,
a broader water route-shift methodology and "waterway-induced" development and traffic.
a very complicated input,
10.
Operational Forecast Mobile District,
for Initial
Traffic on the Tennessee-Tombigbee
Waterway,
South Atlantic Division, August 1985.
The Mobile District TN to estimate
contracted with BHS Economic Research of Knoxville, and volume of commerce that could be during its in were January,
the freight traffic
expected to move over the Tennessee-Tombigbee Waterway initial 1985. years of operation. No projections
(TTWW)
The TTWW opened to commercial in traffic over the project
traffic life
of growth
presented.
Traffic
forecasts were developed by surveying that had the potential that might have been
industries
that were using All
the waterway and those identifiable industries
to ship on the waterway. interested in information,
using the waterway including type of
were contacted and requested
to provide survey 67
commodity, expansion,
volume
in
tons,
origins and destinations etc.
of cargo,
plans for
expected traffic, A. T. Kearney's Waterway. lists,
Many of these industries had been Economics of the
identified in
1976 study on Transportation
Tennessee-Tombigbee from chamber directories.
Others were identified by the Mobile District trade associations, and state industrial
of commerce
Industry traffic
estimates were then aggregated
to yield 18.4 million its routing.
tons of "potential" commerce
that could use the TTWW in
Duplicate tonnages and commodities were eliminated.
that were not suitable for barge movements included two distinct categories:
Potential commerce
freight which was already moving via the TTWW and commerce moving via an alternative mode or route which could potentially realize a if it was diverted to the TTWW. traffic savings in
transportation costs
Of the 18.4 million tons (freight that would not
2.5 million tons were designated as "future" use the waterway for several more years).
A comparative
rate analysis was conducted to determine in
if
the remaining
15.9 million tons could move at a savings alternative development In routing (or alternative of complete modes).
transportation costs over an This analysis entailed the
transportation charges
for each commodity movement. The
most cases
the alternative
routing was the route currently being used. a combination of overland and The rates
alternative water route,
could be an all-overland route,
or a competitive all-water route. receivers,
for overland routes or published in
either were quoted by shippers, freight tariffs.
and carriers,
Barge rates were constructed using the daily operating costs published by the Office, Chief of Engineers,
of towboats and barges Washington, DC. The
-.8 million tons that did not indicate a savings from leaving 13.1 million tons of traffic annual baseresulting in
using the TTWAW routing were eliminated, (Table year 22).
A 10 percent contingency was applied to the total tonnage tc account for any industries not surveyed,
(1985)
an estimated
14. 5 million
tons of "accepted" commerce thereafter.
that should be available Table 22 show the
for the TTWW during FY86 or shortly forecast traffic
The data in
h%- commoditv and bv direction of traffic
(upbound/
downbound) 68
TABLE 22 FORECAST OF INITIAL (1985) TRAFFIC ON THE TENNESSEE-TOMBIGBEE WATERWAY
Industrial Group 01 Agricultural Production 10 Metal Mining
12 Bituminous Coal
Upbound
--
Downbound 203,000 20,000
7,125,000
Total 203,000 211,000
7,125,000
191,000
--
14 Mining and Quarring of Non-metallic Minerals (Except Fuels) 20 Food and Kindred Products
24 Lumber and Wood Products
53,000 37,000
1,250,000 50,000
2,232,000
1,303,000 87,000
2, 32,000
26 Paper and Allied
Products 268,000 268,000
28 Chemicals and Allied Products 29 Petroleum Refining and
Related Industries
756,000
217,000
171,000
927,000
217,000
32 Stone,
Clay,
Glass and
55,000 55,000
Concrete
Products
33 Primary Metals Industries
50 Wholesale Trade
398,000 10,000 1,930,000 193,000 2,123,000 Knoxville,
103,000
--
501,000 10,000 13,139,000 1,314,000 14,453,000
Sub-total Plus 10% for Contingencies Grand Total SOURCE:
11,209,000 1,121,000 12,330,000 TN
BHS Economic Research,
69
In
summary,
the operational
forecast undertaken by BHS Economic Research levels using a shipper-survey if the TTWW this craff'u in howe' er,
and Mobile District
projected near-term traffic
and interview technique. provided a
Rate analysis was performed to determine for potential commerce. Initially,
least-cost alternative
approach would seem methodologically appropriate the immediate future. traffic in 1987, in In contrast to the District's
for forecasting expectations, in 1986,
1985 amounted to only 1.4 million tons; 1988, 8.8 million tons,
2.2 million tons; 4.3 million tons.
3.6 million tons; in traffic
and 1989,
The increase
on the TTWW in
1988 was due to drought conditions on holding down to
the Mississippi River. TTWW traffic deviate
Other factors were obviously at work in
levels for several years. routings,
Reluctance of shippers and carriers time
from established
as well as the extra
incurred by tows
having to break-up and lock through the TTWW versus channels, TTWW traffic played larger levels. roles than expected in
the open-river Mississirpi affecting projected
adversely
11.
Interim Feasibility Report and Environmental June 1983,
Impact Statement for Oliver
Lock Replacement, Project,
and Reevaluation of the Oliver Lock Replacement South Atlantic Division.
September 1985,
Mobile District,
Although the Mobile District Black Warrior-Tombigbee selected locks Commerce (WC)
did not generate forecasts this study,
for the entire were made for
River System in (Table 23).
projections
through 2030 dock-to-dock
The projections used 1979 Waterborne for base year traffic In levels. addition,
commodity movements
The data was verified and supplemented by shipper interviews. potential shippers and receivers were contactel listings, Interviews induce state industrial directories,
from existing WC dock lists.
and Chamber of Commerce
indicated that improvements
to Oliier Lock & Dam alone would not in the study area th•at currently
modal diversion of traffic.
Companies
used other modes for all
or part of their shipments would continue of Oliver Lock.
to move
that way even with the replacement
Future region growth
traffic rate,
projections were based on "the applicable considering the type of commodity, In cther words 10 its use,
1980 OBERS BEA and the origin traffic was
and destination of the movement."
base year
ti979)
-,
A
w0
'0 Aý
'w
~~~~I
N
UIN In 40 In AI
40 0
Oa
u'%
C14
0 w 0C'
0
In
A
-
41%
0
A
P -
'
pn
A
0
' N%
*
4
'
v
CN
C4
-
'4
4%0%
0%
V
'0
4O
40 -
'0
0
rs 0
-0
( N) A4
'
as 0
W0 N
'0
0 v A
In 44 rA.
v w;0 cN
w
.-
'
C4
qw
'(7 a W*NA N
N
o
--
-
-% %
-
-
-'
-
A -
-
-
-
'
co
.0 11 co0 4 N Old NN
AN
0
0 0n
ýr4 z
A-
-
0%
.q
0%
co w
r
~ ~
A A c1N 4 '0
4
A
A
4 .14
04
r
'
4.j
P.
(
A
3
6" A
W0
'
3
0)
3
4
'3
N
~
~
4
'0
co A
w0 4
4
'A
N-'0
0
cn H>
00
3 0
4
0 3
HO
'0
4-4N %
*
04j0 %
-
*
(
0
A
~
%
3
% ,N
*
p
-
-C
it
N
A
A
-
71. %
-
%
N
.~O
4
multiplied by a projection factor.
This commoditýy-
and region-specific
factor
was derived from 1980 OBERS forecasts of population and income region. Additionally, Tennessee-Tombigbee Inc. Waterway (TTWW) traffic
growth by BEA estimates
produced by A.T.
Kearney,
were included in
forecast
years beyond Tenrinto the
Tom's scheduled opening.
Traffic projections were
then incorporated
estimation of project benefits transportation cost savings dam improvements.
using the Tow Cost Model traffic
for calculating lock and
at various
levels and for various
Considering 1980
the dated nature growth
of both the base year data and the use of as well as the over optimism of estimated traffic levels is would
(pre-recession)
factors,
TTWW traffic, compromised.
the reliability
of this study's forecast
The report projected that Oliver Lock and Dam traffic By 1985 traffic
reach 25.5 million tons by 1990. only 15.9 million tons and traffic
through Oliver amounted to
on the entire Black Warrior-Tombigbee in 1989. The general methodology levels is of
Waterway reached only 19.6 million tons applying commodity-specific
growth rates to base year traffic
widely
accepted but the results are strengthened by the use of the latest data. The District's data sources for base year traffic and OBERS in
available indexes by other
BEA region
for commodity
growth rates have been used extensively
Corps navigation studies and were the most current available at the time of analysis. One common drawback to OBERS is that it is updated infrequently.
12.
Bonneville Navigation Design Memorandum,
Lock,
Columbia River,
Oregon/
Washington, North
General
Volume 2 of 2, 1984.
Appendixes,
Portland District,
Pacific Division,
September,
The Portland District analyzed eight separate the Columbia River. traffic reports. movement-s, Each investigation
commodity
groups moving on
included a review of historical from the Bonirev vill( lockmast.e r's
which were obtaitied
The District provided a det-ailed and thoroughlv-researched for eac-h of the commodities. interviews, discussions cciisiits These movements lith Agriculture,
description of routing patterns were identified
by shipper and carrier people,
knowledgeable Manuficrtýuru-;),
resource
consultintg varioiis eri
/ )
(e.g.,
and cont.acting gover-mr
, associ it.iol,
aiiid universitv experts.
The next step in between waterway and rail
the analysis was a modes. in
comparison of transportation
rates and
Freight rates were obtained for rail the Pacific Northwest from Interstate
barge shipments of commodities
Commerce Commission rate manuals. rate and tariff data. Finally, in
A September 1981 base was selected for all Portland District incorporated a variety of traffic at Bonneville Lock for The
commodity-specific
methods
projecting future medium, levels
the period 1985 to 2040. methods and projected traffic below.
High,
and low projections were made.
for each commodity
group are explained
WHEAT & BARLEY:
These two grains represent the largest commodity group Lock, accounting for over 27 percent of total on the Columbia River is First, the
moving through Bonneville tonnage. In general,
future wheat and barley traffic U.S.
expected to grow with total
wheat and barley exports.
Columbia River's market share of U.S. over the period 1976-81. Second,
wheat and barley exports was averaged
Bonneville Lock's share of Columbia River Third, a time
wheat and barley exports was averaged over the same period. series analysis 1982. of U.S.
wheat and barley exports was made for the period 1960-
Future U.S. trend
wheat and barley exports were projected from the linear High and low projections were defined as one standard line. Bonneville tonnages were
regression
line.
deviation above
and below the regression
allocated on the basis of historical shares.
Columbia River
and Bonneville Lock market
CORN:
The Portland District On the basis
did not project corn shipments
to use
Bonneville Lock. patterns,
of current corn production and transportation the Columbia River for area. Currently, at a competitive
the ornly producing
region expected to use
transportation would be the Columbia Basin agricultural Columbia Basin corn cannot be delivered price. origins, partially
to East Asian markets
The Basin has a transportation cost advantage over corn of midwestern but this to the is more than offset by higher production costs related requirement for irrigation.
region's
/13
PETROLEUM:
Combination barges terminals
on the Columbia River move grain
downstream to export products
and return upstream laden with petroleum the second largest for 16 percent of total
for local markets.
Petroleum products are
commodity group moving through Bonneville, traffic and 81 percent of all
accounting
upstream movements. Washington,
One third of these
movements are bound for Pasco,
a major distribution hub for and
refined petroleum products delivered to the eastern parts of Washington Oregon and northern Idaho Four major modal Portland, (the "local market"
for barged petroleum products). i. by tanker to
flows bring these products to the region: 2. by pipeline
then barged upriver; 3.
from Puget Sound to Portland,
then barged upriver; and, is 4.
by pipeline to Pasco and Spokane from Salt Lake City; Montana. Barge transportation two flows. is For
by pipeline to Spokane from Billings, (vs. rail and truck)
the least costly mode two flows,
for the first
the latter
transporting petroleum products by pipeline upriver by barge,
actually
less expensive pipelines is
than moving it limited.
but the capacity of the in it. the local
severely
Demand for petroleum products to deliver
market exceeds
the capacity
of existing pipelines
In
the projections
the Portland District
first
examined the correlations
between several movements.
independent variables and upbound waterway petroleum products (Pearson's r) were estimated for total total pipeline deliveries, fleet mileage
Although correlations
covered employment, average
manufacturing employment,
per capita petroleum consumption, only manufacturing (correlation -. 358) employment were
and average automobile (correlation .909)
efficiency, deliveries
and pipeline
used in
the final regression equation.
FuLure levels of manufacturing Regional Projections forecast variables procedure. into
employment were obtained from 1980 OBERS BEA deliveries were estimated using a SAS for these independent
and future pipeline
By plugging the projected values future
the regression model,
barge movements of petroleum
products were p.-edicted.
WOODCHIPS: first the wood
This commodity has grown rapidly in 1967.
in
importance since
the of
shipments on the Columbia River lumber-making process, fiber
Originally a waste product source of for 12
wood chips are now used as a valuable industry. 74 Woodchips
Ifor the paper processing
ac(ounted
percent of all for woodchips
traffic is
through Bonneville to the general
lock in
the early 1980s. activity
The demand and the
related
level of paper-making Recent increases to increases in in
number of mills located along the river. movements paper; a
woodchip demand for rather than
through Bonneville are attributable transportation shift
to moving chips as a commodity, and a modal shift
transporting because
the pulp logs downriver; is
from rail
to water
barge shipment
more cost-effective.
The method used in a time series that changes historical
forecasting the flow of woodchips
in
future years was
analysis for the period 1967 to 1982. in
Based on the assumption
woodchip tonnages are basically a function of time and that a regression trend line was derived
relationships will continue,
using ordinary least squares regression analysis. was used as the mid-case by computing projections line.
The regression trend line
scenario while high and low estimates were obtained one standard deviation above and below the regression
FERTILIZER: in Washington,
Approximately
10 to 15 percent of all
fertilizer lock;
consumed 93 percent of
Oregon,
and Idaho moves through Bonneville
these shipments move upstream.
The first the historical
step in record
projecting
future fertilizer
traffic
was to compile of wheat
(from
the USDA Statistical
Reporting Service) counties
and barley acreage Oregon. Fertilizer
planted in
the "barge-favorable"
of Washington and the The
consumption is
inherently related to acreage used in crops, wheat and barley in particular.
production of fertilizer-consuming continuation of that historical for
trend into the future serves as the projection. Regression analysis was tonnage and wheat levels were projected Finally, high
independent variable
the fertilizer
performed to determine
the relationship between Future fertilizer
fertilizer traffic
and barley acreage planted.
using the previously developed
trend line for future acreage.
and low projections were estimated as one standard deviation above and below the regression line.
75
LOGS:
Logs are brought from the production areas to the river by truck, the river in log booms. The logs are collected in rafts of
then stored in
250,000 board feet before being pulled downriver to the timber processing industries and export Columbia.
3 or 4 at a time by towboats
terminals of the lower importance over time, While traffic
Log tonnage on the Columbia has decreased in than 5 percent of total traffic in
declining to less
the 1980s.
levels have fluctuated wildly in remarkably constant.
any given year,
the 20 year totals
have been
Rafted logs are a low priority commodities
tow and have to wait for other barged This delay factor increases the For this to the
passing through Bonneville.
transportation cost of logs and hence
their final delivered price. there has been a shift
reason and also because of safety concerns movement of logs in barges rather
than open rafts.
Several projection methods were attempted in
determining future
log simple
tonnage through Bonneville and found to be not applicable: regression, and multiple regression.
trend line,
Because no significant relationships log projections were
could be determined using typical forecasting techniques, simply estimated by extrapolating through Bonneville the historical
average of log tonnages
from 1963 to 1981. traffic level.
The arithmetic mean was extended into High and low projections were
the future as a constant
computed as plus and minus one standard deviation above and below the arithmetic mean.
There are
several constraints and assumptions affecting both supply and the constant flow approach used in and state lands is log projections.
demand which corroborate First,
the export of logs from federal Second,
prohibited except constant are
for minor allowances.
the Forest Service expects a fairly Third,
flow of softwood lumber exports from the U.S.
pulp producers
shifting from transportation of pulpwood logs to transporting woodchips. Finally, many public forest lands are shifting from logging factors mitigate against increasing volumes to wilderness use.
All of these
of traffic.
76
CONTAINERS:
Movement of containers by barge is
a fairly recent
phenomenon and only a slightly-used practice on the inland waterways of the U.S. On the Columbia River, however, several upstream ports have invested in
container handling facilities and nearly 200,000 tons of containerized commodities move by barge annually. Major containerized cargoes on the peas and lentils (downbound), and
Columbia include paperboard (downbound), general cargo (upbound and downbound).
A very brief description of projection
methods for each of these commodities follows:
Paperboard:
This product is
produced in Lewiston, The U.S.
Idaho,
and shipped
downriver to Portland for export.
Forest Service expects exports of to continue to
paper and board, which have been rising since the 1960s,
increase and double by 2030 because of rising world demand and a favorable supply situation in the U.S. The medium projection of future paperboard based upon the 6 percent average annual Thereafter tonnage
tonnage through Bonneville lock is
growth rate anticipated by industry sources through 1995. was held constant because of capacity
constraints at the production plant.
The high and low projections were based on time series analysis of the historical traffic levels. The high projection treated all observations
(traffic levels in a given year) equally, while the low projection used exponential smoothing to weight the more recent observations heavier than those in the early part of the time series.
Dry Peas and Lentils: lentils is in
Nearly all of the U.S.
production of dry peas and
the Bonneville region of eastern Washington and Oregon and Approximately three-quarters of the crop is produced for
northern Idaho. export.
The Portland District's low projection was simply an expectation of constant domestic/export shares,
the continuation of current traffic levels -modal shares, port shares, etc.
The medium projection assumed a one percent
annual increase in
traffic based on expected expansion of wheat acreage (peas The high projection assumed a
and lentils are grown in rotation with wheat). two percent annual increase in
traffic levels associated with a geographic
of dry peas.
expansion of production through the use of new varieties
77
General Cargo: Bonneville high, is
Containerized general cargo moving downstream through Portland District projected 7.6
generally bound for export to Asia. and low scenarios of future traffic annual growth rates. GNP in
medium,
based on 10 percent,
percent,
and 5 percent
These growth rates were Upbound container movements
associated with growth in represent very small totals annually,
Asian economies.
and were projected to grow by 0.7 percent in
based on OBERS population growth estimates for the BEA regions
the upper Columbia Basin.
MISCELLANEOUS grouped elsewhere. projections production,
COMMODITIES:
This category
included all
commodities not
Because of the heterogeneous
nature of this group,
of future traffic
were not based on analyses of demand, Rather, because miscellaneous
or other economic factors.
commodities had historically traffic future.
made up an average of one percent of total this trend was assumed to continue for total Bonneville in traffic, the
passing through Bonneville,
A trend line through 2040 was developed total was allocated
and one percent of this ccmmodity tonnages. deviation above
to projected miscellaneous
High and low projections were defined as one standard
and below the trend line.
The Portland District's
projections of total
future traffic traffic
levels recorded On a
expected to use Bonneville Navigation Lock, by the Corps' positive note, envelope, Performance actual traffic it
as well as actual
Monitoring System are presented in did fall within the District's to the low scenario
Table 24. projection
although
was much closer
than the medium
projection.
Unfortunately
for planners
trying to predict
future m,)vements,
traffic
on the Columbia River actually peaked in tons; commerce since then has declined, in
1976 and 1980 at about 19 million and was 17.2 million tons in 1989.
Unforeseen conditions economists failed traffic in
the grain and lumber industries,
which many
to predict, levels. the late Despite
had much to do with the variation between actual Although traffic 1980s, by 1989 it through Bonneville has had still failed to reach
and predicted increased 1981's
somewhat
all-time high.
the Portland District's 78
thorough and detailed
economic
analysis of the industries
and modal flows associated with the its projections were over world
commodities optimistic. economic etc.) are
moving through Bonneville lock, The effects of exogenous events
(e.g.,
value of the dollar, legislation,
recession,
government
trade programs,
environmental
often difficult
to model.
In
summary,
the Portland District future movements
used a variety of forecasting of different commodity groups. of the commodity, and a Published Each the
techniques
to project
technique was selected based on the characteristics underlying fcrces influencing traffic levels
for that commodity, flows.
detailed examination of the commodity's origin-destination data sources were varied and extensive, and survey techniques as well. their projection In and the District
employed interview while future traffic include the level of was was
terms of accuracy,
overestimated, traffic
envelope did at least The Portland District's
that actually occurred.
overall effort
thorough and sound.
TABLE 24 TOTAL TRAFFIC PROJECTIONS AT BONNEVILLE LOCK, AND ACTUAL TONNAGE 1985-89 (Millions of Tons) 1985 7.6 10.2 12.8 7.7 1986 7.9 10.6 13.2 8.3 1987 8.2 10.9 13.6 8.9 1989
- ---
1985-2010
Low Medium High Actual
1990 9.2 13.3 19.3
2000 13.5 17.6 21.9
2010 17.8 22.1 26.7
11.6
SOURCE:
Bonneville
Navigation Lock,
Columbia River,
Oregon/Washington
(1984).
13.
Mississippi River Gulf Outlet New Lock and Connecting Channels, New Orleans District, Lower Mississippi
Feasibility Study Draft Report, Valley Division, March, 1989.
A feasibility solutions
study examining
the problems,
needs,
and potential
relating to shallow-draft
navigation channels connecting the Gulf 79
Intracoastal Waterway
(GIWW)
to
the Industrial
Canal
in
the vicinity of New Office. The purpose
Orleans was completed at the Corps New Orleans District of the study was through year 2050. Algiers, Port Allen, to estimate The study traffic
expected to use a s stem of GIWW locks Harvey, projections
locks included Industrial Canal, and Bayou Boeuf Locks.
Bayou Sorrel,
Traf.Cic
form an integral
part of the economic analysis in
evaluating alternative plans Industrial
to improving and/or replacing the existing look structures on the Canal. Due to concerns raised in
public hearings over the proposed present location,
reconstruction of the Industrial Canal Lock at its reanalysis of this project was initiated in 1990.
Traffic
projections were made for 18 commodity groups.
These
aggregations were chosen on the basis of physical properties of the commodity, uses of the commodity, and its tonnage. Single commodities with sufficiently For example, coal, marine shell, chemicals, and
large tonnages were treated as one group.
and crude petroleum were projected individually while grain, building materials each were combined as groups.
The commodity growth rates used by New Orleans IWR for The 19F8 IWR's projections national Inland Waterway Review, of internal waterborne
District
were developed by
with the exception of marine shell. commerce were produced at the
level and subsequently distributed among component waterway segments 1984-86 historic share of traffic. Growth indexes
based on that waterway's
for various commodity groups projections Fertilizer made by DRI, Institute. rates
identified by IWR were derived from economic the Department of Energy, and the
the WEFA Group,
The New Orleans District to a base traffic level.
then applied IWR's commodityThis base was defined as the
specIfic growth 1986-87 average study locks.
tonnage
figure for each commodity group moving through the HWR's projections did not extend beyond year 2000, the
Although tLhe
District extended 2050 life).
1993-2000 annual growth rate projected by iWR to year the project over its 50-year economic
(based on the need to evaluate
For marine shell, commerce in 1986.
which accounted
for almost 3 million tons of GIWW future traffic levels
the New Orleans District projected 80
based on known reserves of both clam and oyster shell deposits in Ponchartrain and Atchafalaya Bay. developed assuming current, High, medium,
Lake
and low projections were and immediately declining life of the marine shell
gradually declining,
rates of production throughout the remaining reserve beds.
This translated into average annual growth rates varying from zero
(constant traffic levels) to -13.7 percent.
Some potential areas of concern emerge from the New Orleans District's analysis. The District relied almost exclusively on projected growth rates
produced at another Corps office (IWR), which were made for a national-level, "priorities" assessment study, not for specific project justification. Lockspecific forecasts could be enhanced through interviews with shippers and carriers and investigation of local markets and industries.
Disaggregating national
level commodity-specific growth rates down to
individual locks introduces forecasting risks which have been noted elsewhere in this report. In addition, the growth rates developed by IWR were based on Applying these growth rates to
"a weighted 1984-86 average of historical data.
"a different base year also introduces another element of uncertainty and
weakens the relationship with the information upon which the growth rates were based originally. forecast horizon is Assuming growth rates remain constant over a 50-year also risky in that the commodity growth rates used were macro-economic assumptions.
derived based on much nearer term (through 2000)
The longer term reliability of these growth rate assumptions would need to be reassessed from the original sources to be applied in a realistic sense much beyond 2000. Lastly, the District study could be improved by clearly traffic forecasts were
explaining how IWR's Gulf Intracoastal Waterway (GIWW) allocated among various locks on the GIWW.
81
14.
Montgomery Point Lock and Dam Feasibility Study, Little Rock District, 1990
McClellan-Kerr Arkansas
River Navigation System,
The purpose of this study was to project River
tonnages moving on the White for the
(part of the McClellan-Kerr Arkansas River Navigation System) Baseline Center
period 1995-2045. Commerce Survey. Statistics
tonnage estimates were developed using Waterborne (WCSC) data and results from the 1989 Shippers
Three and five year averages were developed by combining WCSC and Sand, gravel and rock movements, which are mostly internal, were
survey data.
not included in
the study.
Baseline tonnage was calculated by taking the
average of tonnage for 1986 and 1987 from WCSC data and for 1988 from the 1989 Shippers Survey. These figures were then used to estimate projected indices, tonnages
for project year 1 (1995) OBERS projections. coal
by using various
including IWR data and
One exception to the above five year average
three year averages was that to smooth out the annual
tonnages were based on a
fluctuations.
Baseline sand, gravel,
tonnage was forecast to be 6.7 million tons and rock),
in
1995
(excluding
up from the three year averaged 6.0 million tons for are expected to be in grains,
1986-88. fertilizer,
The largest
tonnage increases steel products.
and primary
Mode split
analysis was used to analyze
the mode
split
for traffic The This
originating and terminating on the M-K Arkansas River Navigation System. commercial data base, data base combines barge is a very Transearch, was used to analyze the modal splits.
shipment data from 10 sources.
The analysis
indicated that
important mode of transportation for the Arkansas River BEA's, and inbound movements of
particularly
for outbound movements of farm products
chemicals and petroleum products.
Baseline in
tonnage
figures were projected
for the period 1995-2045 for use scenarios. Growth
calculating benefits
for the with and without-project
rate projections are based on IWR material, knowledge, Low,
OBERS projections,
and local
based on the survey effort and discussions with local officials. and high scenario projections were developed. 82 Most of the
medium,
commodity projections Waterway Review.
are based on IWR estimates prepared for the 1988 Inland (medium) scenario, total tonnages for 13
For the middle
major categories were projected to increase 1995, 2010; in 7.3 million tons in 9.3 million tons and, in 2000; 2015;
as follows: 2005;
6.7 million tons in 8.6 million tons in 11.1 million tons
7.9 million tons in 10.2 million tons in 2045. The latter
2025;
2035;
12.1 million tons in
represents a doubling of
tonnage over the 1986-88 base period tonnage.
The 2045 projection for the low scenario was 9.9 million tons; the high scenario,
and for
the projected tonnage was 15.3 million tons for 2045.
15.
The National Waterways Study U.S.
-
A Framework for Decision Making Support Center, January 1983.
Final Report, Institute
Army Engineer Water Resources Report No.
for Water Resources,
NWS-83-1,
The National Waterways Study (NWS) Water Resources Development Act of 1976.
was authorized by Congress through the The objective of the study was to response to and the on
provide a national overview of the inland waterway system in steady increases in traffic,
congestion and delays at certain locks,
mounting need for replacement or rehabilitation at many aging structures the system. coastal, study in It was the first
comprehensive assessment of the nation's inland, since the National Waterways Commission
and Great Lakes waterways 1908.
The study was extensive in projected waterborne commerce ability of the current
scope,
covering an examination of current an assessment of the and an evaluation of
and
(foreign and domestic),
system to handle this traffic,
alternative strategies the system, waterways. A.T.
for adding capacity and maintaining the reliability
of
particularly with respect to both the inland and Great Lakes The multi-year Louis Berger) in study involved three principal contractors and representatives from OCE Besides reports, BFRH, (DRI,
Kearney,
and each Corps
Civil Works Division,
addition to IWR staff.
IWR's Final Report, a 24-map set of the papers
other products included 10 contractor technical waterway system and major commodity flows, and presentations,
a wide variety of historical
and documentation of an extensive public involvement 83
program.
The contractor
technical reports traffic rail,
focused on a comprehensive
range of
waterway topics carrier
including:
projections;
the waterway shipper and other demands and water
industries;
alternative
pipeline and truck modes; recreation,
for water resources supply;
such as hydropower,
flood control,
waterway engineering
and technology;
and an evaluation and
recommendations.
Traffic projections used in generated by Data Resources, four alternative The projections regions. Inc.
the National Waterways (DRI).
Study (NWS)
were
Projections were developed under and under three sensitivity analyses.
macroeconomic scenarios were generated
for 14 commodity groups and for 22 geographic class details for internal In general, (inland), coastal,
They included traffic and foreign trade.
Great Lakes,
the alternative
scenarios
reflected both economic and institutional forecast period. An attempt waq made "to
changes
that may occur over the a wide range of possible
incorporate
future events to allow planners with future waterborne traffic "Low
to assess a number of contingencies associated growth." The four NWS scenarios--"Baseline", and "Bad Energy"--were The three
"High Transportation Use", based on three sensitivities in DRI U.S.
Transportation Use",
macroeconomic
forecasts of the economy.
examined the impacts of alternative futures not covered directly "High Coal Export", and "Miscellaneous".
the scenarios--"Defense",
Different model assumptions were embodied in Assumptions about the likely trends the latest U.S. in U.S.
each set of forecasts.
population growth were based on scenarios.
Bureau of the Census data and were the same for all
A detailed analysis was performed of each of the major industries which significantly affect water transportation tonnage. These analyses used both Industry
field interviews
and ongoing DRI
industry studies and models.
forecasts were then di.;aggregated by region to estimate consumption in specific geographic areas.
future production and
These projections were based in Each industry'logistics decisions part
part upon analysis of historical
industry data.
decision process was analyzed to identify the likely transportation which would be made. upon correlations waterborne
Subsequent waterborne projections were based in and iidustry factors and the
between broad economic
flows for 1969 to 1977,
as well as on full consideration of likely 84
shifts in
logiszics systems by industry due to new plant locations or new
The industry dnalysis, production and consumption
product introductions. regions, reflect and logistics the effects
decision process for each industry were adjusted to of the individual scenario assumptions.
The "Baseline" waterborne traffic
scenario was trends,
largely an extrapolation of historical
although some adjustments were made to the 1977 price hike and modified forecasu for the U.S.
base year data to take agricultural yiells.
into account the 1979 oil DRI's
"Trendlong" macroeconomic
economy was used in this baseline.
The "High Transportation Use" macroeconomic
roal
scenario also used DRI's "Trendlong" incorporated higher estimates for waterborne more
assumptions, coal exports,
but it
traffic,
and domestic coal consumptio,..
Further,
relaxed environmental restrictions Phosphate
allow for the expansion of coal use. compared to a decrease urder
expor-.s were held constant after 1985, scenario.
the baseline
The "Low
Transportation Use"
scenario incorporated DRI's "LargcGovt" and
macroeconomic model, government major include
reflecting a combination of economic events the demand in A-sumptions
policy that tend to depress transportation. (than
industries which are this scenario from
,ars of water
imbedded in
lower grain yields
baseliaie)
and reduced grain e"'orts imports,
Great Lakes ports, exports,
substantially
lowjr crude oil
lowcr phosphate (to 26%
and growing import penetration of the domestic steel market
from 15% baselin,).
"The
national
"Bad Energy"
scenario used DRI's in
"BadEnergy2003"
model and effects on the
hypothesized an energy crises economy
the mid-1980's with resuting
The scenario predicted
that oil imports wol ld drop synfuel plants
precipitously,
coal exports would grow,
and although additional the traffic
would be constructed to receive offset by thL construction
coal by water,
would be partially
of seven coal slurry pipelines.
85
The three sensitivity analyses were performed to look at the impact of certain alternative assumptions in the four primary forecast scenarios. The
"Defense" analysis reflected the impact on waterborne traffic of U.S. involvement in a five-year conventional war. "High Coal Exports" focused on on
the effects of dramatically higher coal exports (300 million tons by 2003) coastal ports and inland waterways. Finally,
the "Miscellaneous" sensitivity
analysis incorporated a number of specific adjustments to individual river segment forecasts to account for underreporting of base year traffic and to eliminate disparities with locally-prepared navigation studies. The various Table 25.
assumptions employrd by the different scenarios are highlighted in
The resulting seven sets of forecasts of potential waterborne commodity flows were developed using base year 1977 data from Waterborne Commerce for 14 commodity groups and 22 geographic "unconstrained" by any snortfall in regions. These forecasts were
the waterway capability to handle the
traffic and represented the probable cargo levels available for water transportation under each of the sets of assumptions. Projected total traffic
levels by waterway segments for the four major scenarios are shown in Tables 26-29.
Unfortunately,
the National Waterways Study forecast traffic levels are
not comparable to either The 1988 Inland Waterway Review projections or historical tonnages in Waterborne Commerce of the U.S. in both waterway segment definitions and in example, the NWS Illinois River, because of differences For
the types of traffic counted. and Gulf Coast West
Warrior River System,
segments included domestic traffic figures from the ports of Chicago, and Houston, respectively, which were not included in
Mobile, Black
Illinois Waterway,
Warrior-Tombigbee Waterway,
or Gulf Intracoastal Waterway traffic totals in Furthermore, the NWS also lumped
either Waterborne Commerce or the Review. all i land, Great Lakes, local,
and coastwise domestic traffic together while
the Review deals only with internal barge traffic and Waterborne Commerce lists each of the water modes separately. For these two reasons, most
forecasts
in the NWS are not easily verified by analogous historic data or
more recent traffic projections.
86
TABLE
Pricipial ABu 1. Macroeconomic 2. Corn Yielda by 2003 (Bushels per Acre) Went Coast Shaem of Farm Products Exports (Percem) Phospate Exports Steel imports (PercentofTotal Consumption) Crude Oil Prices (Average Amnnal Price Incmus-Pem) Crude Oil Imports by 2003 (Millions of Tons) CoalExpos by 2003 (Millions of Tons)' Gulf Coast Sham of Total Coal Exports in2003 (PeCe.t)' Domesic Coal
25
THE NATIONAL WATERWAYS STUDY PRINCIPAL ASSUMPTIONS FOR NWS SCENARIOS'
m Boehmi Treadlong 121 High Use Trendlong 121 Low Use Larger Government 110 Bad Energy Bad Energy 121 Defense Waurume Economy' 121
High Coal
Exports Trendlong 121
3.
14
14
14)
14
Overall Decline Dunng Conflict Constant After 1985 Decline Sharply DuringConflict 3.8
14
4. 5.
6.
Decrease After 1985 Decrease After 1990from 17to 15 3.8
Constant After 1985 Decrease After 1990 from 17to 15 3.8
Decrease After 1985 Increase to 26 by 2003 3.8
Decrease After 1985 Decrease After 199Ofrom 17to 15 4.8
Constant After 1985 Decrease After 1990from 17to 15 3.8
7.
290
290
240
200
9.
107
156
107
156
Decline of 100 290 Million Tons per Year During Conflict 156 290'
9.
19
23
II
23
23
35
10.
1,794
2,360
1.625
1,728
2.360
2.360
Consumption by
II. 2003 (Millions of Tons) Synfuel Plant on Water (Coal Consumption in Millions of Tons by 2003) Coal Slurry Pipelines Eastern Coal Use (Lake Eric Loadings of Coal by 2003 in Millions of 10(50)' 11 (61) 6(30)1 15 (81) 11 (61) 11 (61)
12. 13.
None Present Technology and Regulations (20)
None Present Technology and Regulations (22)
None Increased Use in Great Lakes Area (24)
7' Present Technology and Regulations 120)
None Present Technology and Regulations (22)
None Present Technology and Regulations 122)
Tons)
The Miscellaneous scenario incorporates all the assumptions of the High Use scenario. The adustments are made to account for data base errors (Ohio and Gulf Coast-East reaches) or to introduce alternauve regional forecasts (Arkansas and Columbia-Snake Waterway reaches). 2, Based on Federal Emergency Management Agency forecast. 3. Great Lakes shae drope 10 percent. 4. Overseas and Canadian destinations. S. Based on National Coal Association high forecast and modified by Data Resources. Inc. (DRI), 6. An additional demonstrstion plant (not included in these numbers) on the Monongahela River is assumed in operation from 1983 to 1990 and consune 3.000.000 to 6.000.000 tons of coal each year. However. after 1990. it is discontinued. 7. One of dtse seven ptpelines (ETSI) will divert 4 5 million tons of coal from the waterways by 2003 I.
SOURCE:
THE NATIONAL WATERWAYS STUDY,
1983 (TABLE IV-6,
PAGE IV-62)
87
0.
C~ 0ý 14 0 0
cic cm-* O CD N00 L N 00 '0
C)
pU n
-f
NO 0
N-
Pr%
-0
N
0
J
0 pV
CD v '0
0
LA nLn 0' 0 ) 0 j
04
0
0 N
r'
0 CD
(>
N)
N
-
N
N N N
'0
-
pn NY 090'1
co
1
L
i c ,J -l -r
C, 11
0-
LA -.
Ln LA
N Go N
N t
0' N 0 N
LU
r
;C
o
C
N 0 UJL LU N~ (A N- 00 4:
L. LU U I
-.
1
0~
~~~r Q
NI
N*
A cZ
-t
NM -
0 0
C) ' 0i
.J
'
'
L
Ln a. co
.-
A Ln N: '0 P-~
N E
0 Ln Nr
' N)
0 0' o
L &0 Nl N~
A 0CD
~
10
t '0L 0
. N L
E
L
~
z '0 10 0
;
07LU
0c
-0
nV
N
C)
0. ce wA
-u :'I-
wCC Nl 0' UN Nu
,
Nc
(Jl
-t
0' co
el 0fý' '0
:
co
,
' fl N0
C
A
L
0.
0'
No
ci
Nl LA%
rn
0) N
1~ 0
N '0 0D
N N 0'
l LU
-J
4o
4t
4n
4n
LA
N
(
N
4 0
N 0'
a
w4
4ý
-n
N ý
Nv CC) LA N LA 0,
0:
0
'0
N
fJ(
N 0
0
N
'0 0
0' )
o
v
'
-. It~~ D) co
0, 3 z C: L7 z
0 E. (
~
(
C 0'
~
~
88I
,
,
.-
)
r4J r\L
4
CJ 0
r'4
17
(3. 0
I)V
n(
(V
oo
Co
O-
0,
M)
M
M(
C> 0
U M
-
0
0>
10
al
0 m'
-7
U2,
pn.
;z
1.2 -
UCI,
('
4C:
Co
0 0D 0' '0 0C C 0 )( 'n 0 0' c r'0 'T
al
0-7UWU 2
E-40-u~-- '0
OfCz:
U)
O-
r
1:
U,)
-7 U
N'-
Uo
rn
LIi
04 I?
N
'0
'
-7
01
0
F0 (~(
-4
Nr-:
f-
0)
U, a-
0'
-
N-
N-
C0 0
N r4
0
r
4u ..
U
)U
E-4
rý:'
,
'
m~0 E-
(
o
a0, 0' LI)Z
Ln i, co
-Z U CD
0 C4) 0o
C;
~
('4C (U i
0 n
.-
'0 N-
rn,
4)j -.7
"4
-
U( t~
.7 1~r' 0 co
U '0
U
co
-~
N co -
U,
NN-4
r, 0
030) -
n
OZ
'
C
'-04L
0m-0
~
"'.j
0
0
>4
P7 0
.
-
7
I-
~C> U, i
P)
('$ "
c>
"
No
;24
N(U t
a-
'0 r
co.?4
t C
> U4
1-4
C ) 10 aco '0 ol C)
rs
'0
r(D
N
0
04 M 44
aa
A4"4
l C rn2~
o r
CD
~
'
NC-
0 oc
0
N-C: ,
:(U
Pei
C r-
00('
04 ý
H7
,
-
(4
'0
(
-
0
(
00
Z
-4
0
M4)
4l
> 3
Z
134
jn ''In
444
E-4 -'-L~:
zc
89c
'C 0)
(V I
m 4
0, w
1-
r
%0 Ll N0 'C t
o 0' m
'C 0 N
M Nn 0'C
0. D 0
0 co
~
~
~
n
'
'I-
K
2 Z: .( 0
~A
0) :3 L.C~ 0 -0I m
>
> L4'
..0 at (V (3 A AA 0 w
uj . 0. L)
W)0
0 o K
~o
0
v ( o '-0
0 (V Iu
U
0ý
z
Oz
0
o
0C)
t
N
V
Z
E-4 N
0
'40
0
0D
-
.. , 0C. . 1N '0
Is -r
0. m, '0 0. Ln m
1
( Lm fn ( L
'0
0 N
.
N It Nl " 0 N 0
N
0 %0
-,
o.
C 0. 0 C 0 0D Vl Lr
0. N a
c-
o
0 n 0D '0 pn -: N 0
-
CD 0 NO-N
F'r 0 .
00. 0N rj N 0
U
t U r -
. 0 O 0 &A G m
0
u A
co
H')r 0~~~~' 4
r%
C W U'. co '0
-% 0
0 r- 0 1 j~
0. 0D DCDW'0 >4m N N
NUSFn 1 N m m O'j C w U N
LAi ,4 4
0
U~&
0CJZ)4 -Jj~ 0. S00 Ir "' r'0 0 -0
NZ
.
CN
~
0
0 -4
c-
"0 Ci 0
C. U' n 0
' ý
0
0
Ol
LA N r4
w 0
.
Ln<
.4% 0." N'
f.-
It Nn
.
w'
0-
0
Z-4E-4
w~
ON 04 Wz f0.
. 1-4
'04 N '0 -'0 U)(U N6 0
-
4
i .
-n
N N0
Ni
, N m ND
0. D
N us~ G '0 c Ni0 >NN
>4
U) V) I
~
44
~
0
0
C)
n
0. in
ND
a. co
0. 00 00 E-0 4 H 1-4
-
C
'r
P N: ".
0ý ;
Pý1 Ný '0 0 i .44
Ný N N2 0 I.
0A
4
c. N Ni co 0 N Ni
Z
0
0 N
N
US
0, IM '0
.n NL
v, C
. 00
N ' @.
0 0.
'0 m 0
N '0
o
m z
( E--4
H >
0 Zi E-4
%U
a4
L)
0
I
rl
co
r-I rj
ý rI 91r r
nj 0.
With these caveats closely approximate
in
mind,
forecasts
from the NWS Baseline
scenario
the medium scenario forecasts
from The 1988 Inland and and Ohio
Waterways Review for the Lower Mississippi parallel Rivers. the high scenario forecasts
and Missouri River traffic Tennessee,
for the Arkansas,
16. Institute
1988 Inland Waterway Review, for Water Resources,
IWR Report 88-R-7,
U.S.
Army Engineer
November 1988.
This report developed projections of inland waterway traffic national and waterway segment levels using a traffic "top-down" shares.
at the
approach based on National level
individual commodity groups and historic
commodity analyses were based on "off-the-shelf" information forecasting services, Federal agencies, such as Data Resources, Inc. (DRI)
from major
and the WEFA Group,
and trade associations.
Segment level projections were
derived from each segment's historic Traffic for
share of a given commodity group.
1975 through 1986 was tabulated and aggregated by commodity group Ten aggregated commodity groups were selected:
and waterway.
1. 3. 5 7. 9.
Farm Products Coal Nonmetallic Minerals/Products Industrial Chemicals Petroleum Products
2. 4. 6. 8. 10.
Metallic Ores, Products and Scrap Crude Petroleum Forest Products Agricultural Chemicals All OU•r
Data for these for the following 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. i1. 13. 15.
commodity groups were aggregated at the national level and
individual waterways: 2. Middle Mississippi 4. Lower Mississippi 6. Illinois o. Monongahela 10. Cumberland 12. Gulf Intracoastal Waterway 14. Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway
Upper Mississippi Missouri Arkansas Ohio Kanawha Tennessee Black Warrior-Tombigbee Columbia
WW
Both levels of projections are discussed 92
in
more detail below.
National Level Projections
Projections of internal waterborne commerce were developed at the national level by IWR from a variety of sources, group. Wherever possible, depending upon the commodity
growth indices were derived from government or
private entities with generally accepted expertise with respect to a given commodity group. At least three growth rates were obtained for each commodity "medium" and "low" forecasts for the years 1990, 1995 and
to generate "high", 2000. Once derived,
growth rates were applied to a weighted average base
using 1984-86 data from Waterborne Commerce of the United States for each commodity group to arrive at projected traffic. heavily for 1986 (3 times 1986, The data were weighted more
2 times 1985 and 1 times 1984 divided by 6) with two exceptions: farm
than for earlier years for most commodity groups, products and coal.
For farm products a simple average of the three years' was used due to abnormally depressed traffic levels
actual tonnage (1984-86) in 1985 and 1986. It
was felt giving additional weight to these low tonnage For coal a 1986 tonnage for this
years would skew the projections toward the low side. historic base was used to capture rapid increases in commodity group. It
was felt that using the weighted multiple-year base for projections that were unrealistically low The 1986 actual data and the low, medium and 2000 are shown in Table 30.
coal generated near term (1990) (i.e.,
below actual 1986 tonnage).
and high projections for 1990,1995,
As noted,
growth rates were derived from a variety of existing sources. 1995
In December 1987 DRI prepared waterborne commerce projections for 1990, and 2000 for each of the ten major commodity categories analyzed in Inland Waterway Review, (DRI Inc., Waterway Outlook, December 1987).
the 1988 IWR
chose to apply DRI's growth rates rather than the actual tonnages projected by DRI because their forecasts started with a 1985 base, tcnnage year, recorded in an exceptionally low
and did not reflect the recovery in actual traffic tonnage This approach admittedly weakens the relationship between
1986.
the projected growth rates and the underlying macroeconomic assumptions developed by DRI. However, the original DRI forecasts for 1990 were already the late 1980s.
being exceeded by observed inland waterway coal traffic in
The growth rates projected by DRI provided one set of forecasts for all of the 93
ox
o
co
'-
0 r1
lAL CD
A r'.j
L
'ji
'
A
.?
A J 0~
N-
'0
CD
LA
0)
C
r C)
Ný C) LAN Ln Cy
CDJ A C.
r cn,
C.
1
CDo5 C\
Z
~
~
CD
rO0-
C
m
0 N-j
0' J
0C9~~ '4
~'
j co
3
0 0'
Urý
N -Nj
'0
It 0' 10 (14
0'
LAN ý
O-fA N
-I
u
E-4
04
0
'1'4
~
2 r
0
-
N-
0
Nn
'
rJ
0'T
0
00
:
0
-r-
E,4 E 3
E-4
x'
L
4
'
&
a4
0
:
00
LA
'.1 C
co N
.J 0 0
-
N ' m4
N
0'
0
J t~'
E-1 -- M
El 4 w `40 0
'0
0'
0'0
'4j L 0
n
r-
N
c
l
P.: .N
LA
'
0ý
V; . 0
-(
;I N
j
~ ~
r-l
1A0 4 N NJ '
~
N C
N)
in Na' '0
-
N
-
0ý '
J
o
3
1,
C:. 0
I. LA
0'
'0 LA i .-
N. 't
rn
NQ N 0
LA
.
'
P,
. r--
0'
9
o~
u >4
rq
N-
Nl
LA
'r LA
N
.
N
10
-l
NC
Nl
'4
0
-u
Co
co
'0 cNi 0~
fLA .-
0'
L
0 en
A
0
4
'0 N
C) N
C) LA N
0' N
LA
'0 N
0 G
0
0
rn
0>
N.
0
0'
0D
LA%
N
N l
0D
N.
N
0
L
'0
N
0N c
: W E(,N 00 '0 w 0 0' 0' N.It m '4 It N.LwL U % N. 0 I r 0' . ý D 's 'T Cý 0 0' 0' '0 m
L
'4 '0 o
39 !2 'r Ný It N NJ N~ C0 LA (ý 00 N 0 '0
LA 06
NA N9
LA
-~
U2
'
N
4
LA
04
C-I X-
n co
-
-r '4 N
0: N. Ist Cý N '
09
N "
0ý
:1
"(i
0'
LA It 4
(J
0 Co 0
LA 6
o )
N L
t C4 N U) ' 0
.
o ~ ~
'
~ I(
M) N
~
U) n
~
~
N
'4
~
L 0 u4-
P-
r
- 10
co
(7
(~j ý
L 0~
'n
0
c Z.)
0 0'
E W
CL
3
(u
U)
(C( V) XC
)
(C ICC 0 EU -
C (U 0I. 0 0 0 0 0
C) ( 3 (C (C 4) . jC)'
0 C)mu C In C ) c(~ L E
0 ' :3
.U
co 0,
.
(C Dx -
~
~ -0
0 Go] u (A
Q
co
10
Diverted and Induced Waterway Traffic.
The projection methodology used by IWR from/to other such as major
does not have a mechanism to address the diversion of traffic modes or induced traffic lock rehabilitation resulting from changes in the system,
or added locking capacity.
Division/District Input to Modify Projections.
Several field
offices
(FOAs)
provided support to IWR to refine the segment level projections overcome some of the deficiencies noted above. are in a position to have local knowledge terminals, closures, changes in
to help
The divisions and districts facilities and
of new plants,
transfer lock,
operating patterns at a particular
and relevant characteristics
of area shippers and waterway operators. to determine changing Each
The localized effects traffic
of these factors were evaluated
shares by commodity
on a given segment and at individual locks.
segment was
further evaluated through linear regression analysis and data. The result was to modify
calculation of standard deviation of historic the forecast envelope the historic deviation.
for a number of segments using the linear trend line or traffic about a mean value implied by the standard
variation in
Concluding Remarks on IWR Projections
The projections
developed by IWR for the 1988 Inland Waterway Review futures is for traffic on the nation's trends by forecasting
provide a broad based look at alternative waterway system. The "top-down" level, approach
an effort
to capture
commodity at the national services. Indeed,
as projected by major commercial its
a major strength of this method is
considerable
assessment of production and consumption trends in national economy that use waterborne projections projections the ability
various sectors of the The national traffic
transportation.
thus derived are probably far more realistic generated to predict for individual traffic
than a summation of Unfortunately, are
lock and dam projects.
levels becomes weaker as these forecasts
disaggregated
down to the segment and lock level using an historic Some of this weakness is
weighted
average approach. refinements
mitigated at the segment level by support. However, the level
developed with Division and District is too generalized 103
projection methodology
to be applied at the lock
without considerable degradation of reliability. the projections national developed in
For project-level
analysis,
the 1988 Inland Waterway Review provide a point. Project analysts
framework that can be used as a starting
need to refine these projections perhaps applying origin/ patterns
further through local and regional analysis, to determine likely future
destination studies
at individual projects and along localized river reaches.
Huntington District, Forecast Methodologies, perspective
in
its
comments on this Review of Planning and from a project level
summarized basic concerns
on deficiencies of the top-down approach:
"With the passage of the Acid Rain Legislation, we are witnessing major and unforeseen changes in coal shipment patterns, some of which are temporary fixes and some of which are permanent. With respect to coal transportation, we are in the midst of a period of adjustment which will continue for the next decade. The usefulness of the top-down forecasting approach described, in this type of an environment, is questionable on the system level and particularly questionable at the project level. Under these circumstances, the major source of useful information will probably prove to be shipper surveys. "The purpose of making these long-term commodity traffic demand forecasts is for the economic analysis of individual projects and yet the forecasting methodology described is most accurate at the national level, less accurate at the system level, less accurate still at the individual waterway level, and least accurate at the project level. The methodology is undermined by a lack of regional variation in commodity traffic growth rates, a lack of company-level input. "The report suggests that the forecasts produced will serve as a "framework" for use in producing project-level traffic demand forecasts, and that districts will make micro-level adjustments to make the forecasts useable in project economic analyses. The danger in this approach is that in their unadjusted form, the overall forecasts will be so generalized that they will be entirely unusable at the project level. "The "leap" from the national-level forecasts to project level forecasts is a highly-complex leap. The forecasts could look good and reasonable at one project in a system, but entirely off-base at another project. Micro-level information is often critical at the project level, and rather than simply adjusting the national-level forecast, what may be required is a complete "re-do" of the forecast. Whatever adjustments are made at the district level, whether minor or major, the likelihood of conflict and confusion is high." (ORH-PD-C, 20 September 1991)
104
The issues raised by Huntington District for appropriate
are valid and highlight in
the need
local and regional input to refine projections level analysis.
a top-down
framework for project shipper and carrier
These refinements can be based on
surveys,
localized origin/destination analysis, or new traffic, at the project etc. Ideally, the techniques
anticipated modal diversions used to refine defensible,
the projections
level should be well documented,
and adaptable by others performing a similar analysis.
105
SUMMARY
This report is procedures traffic traffic
part of a
larger R&D effort
to develop suggested inland waterway
and guidelines
for making consistent and systematic is
projections.
The purpose of this report
to review and assess
forecasting methodologies previously employed by project level and Inherent in this and
national level Corps of Engineers inland navigation studies. effort is the identification of data sources for economic,
transportation,
commodity supply and demand forecasts.
Each of the 16 inland navigation studies reviewed is because individual waterway projects have unique physical traffic mixes and patterns, However,
in
some way unique, geographic that have
features, etc.,
locations,
economic hinterlands,
to be addressed. similarities groups:
the studies discussed still
exhibit enough into four broad
to categorize
their projection methodologies
(1) the application of independently rates to base year traffic
derived commodity-specific (2) shipper surveys of
annual growth
levels;
existing and potential waterway users barge; (3)statistical
to determine future plans to ship by and correlation to predict and, (4) a
analysis using regression
future waterborne traffic
based on independent economic variables; supply-demand and modal split
detailed long-range commodity incorporating
analysis
the production and consumption patterns of individual economic The complexity of these methods and expense invested in each. The
regions within the waterway hinterland. varie 4idely, as does the time, effort,
general projection methodology and data sources reviewed
incorporated in in Table 33.
each of the
inland navigation studies are summarized
Most analysts would agree that the projection methodologies
employed in
Corps navigation studies should not be judged solely on the basis of forecasting accuracy degree of error. forecast. for the simple reason that every forecast contains some
A sound methodology does not necessarily
ensure an accurate fiscal, or
Often macroeconomic changes or unpredictable events, wisdom." for example, How, then, can defy all
political,
meteorological "Io.,ventional
the presumptions of be judged?
should these methodologies
107
TABLE 33 GENERAL PROJECTION METHODOLOGY AND DATA SOURCES FOR THE 16 INLAND WATER STUDIES STUDY NAME & YEAR Lower Mississippi Region Comprehensive Study (1974) Master Plan for Upper Mississippi River System (1981) Projections of Demand for Waterborne Transportation, Ohio River Basin, 1980-2040 (1980) PROJECTION METHODOLOGY Base year traffic multiplied by commodity-specific growth rates Base year traffic multiplied by commodity-specific growth rates CONSAD: statistical methods (correlation & regression) Battelle: shipper survey DATA SOURCES -1970 Waterborne Comm. -1967 OBERS industry indices -National Waterways Study, 1983
-1972 OBERS Series E Regional Projection -1976 Waterborne Comm. -surveys and interviews of Ohio River basin waterway users -1976 Waterborne Comm. -U.S. Depts of Interior, Agriculture, Energy, and Transportation -Bureaus of Economic Analysis and Census -see Nathan sources
Nathan: market demand, resource inventory, and modal split analysis
Gallipolis Locks and Dam (1980)
Evaluated CONSAD, Battelle, and Nathan studies; selected Nathan Nathan's market demand, resource inventory, and modal split analysis, then updated in 1981 with interviews, surveys
Monongahela River, Locks.& Dams 7 & 8 (1984)
-Ohio River Basin Study, 1980
Lower Ohio River Nathan study updated with Navigation Study Tenn-Tom estimates Mouth to Cumberland River (1985)
-see
Nathan sources
108
TABLE 33 (Continued) STUDY NAME & YEAR Kanawha River, Winfield Lock Replacement (1986) PROJECTION METHODOLOGY Base year traffic multiplied by commodity-specific growth rates DATA SOURCES -1980 Waterborne Comm. -1980 OBERS Series E Regional Projections -1986 Waterborne Comm. -Bureau of Econ. Anal. -U.S. Dept of Ag. -U.S. Forest Service -National Electric Reliability Comm. -Industry Forecasts
Forecast of Future Ohio River Basin Waterway Traffic (1986-2050)
Industry analyses performed, base year traffic adjusted through shipper surveys, movements categorized by geographic area and end use market, commodityspecific OBERS and industry growth indices applied to base traffic levels
Supplement To The Shipper survey and Environmental Inpact interviews (base year) Statement:TennesseeTombigbee Waterway: (1981)
-potential shippers identified from commodity movements from Interstate Commerce Commission (rail), Bureau of Census (truck), and Corps (marine)
Base year traffic multiplied by commodity-specific growth rates Operational Forecast for the Tennessee Tombigbee Waterway (1985) Interim Feasibility Report and Environmental Impact Statment for Oliver Lock Replacement (1985) Bonneville Navigation Lock (1984) Shipper survey and interviews
-1972 OBERS Series E Regional Projections
-state industrial directories, trade associations, chamber of commerce lists -1979 Waterborne Comm. -1980 OBERS Regional Projections
Base year traffic multiplied by commodity-specific growth rates
-Statistical
methods
-Shipper surveys -Base year multiplied by commodity-specific growth rates
-1960-81 Lockmaster reports -US Dept Agriculture, Forest Service -1980 OBERS Regional Projections
US
109
TABLE 33 (Continued) STUDY NAME & YEAR Mississippi River Gulf Outlet (Industrial Canal Lock) (1989) PROJECTION METHODOLOGY Base year traffic multiplied by commodity-specific growth rates DATA SOURCES -1986-87 Waterborne Commerce -1988 Inland Waterway Review -1989 -1989 Shippers Survey Waterborne Comm.
Montgomery Point Lock and Dam (1990) National Waterways Study (1983)
Base year traffic multiplied by IWR and OBERS indices Base year traffic multiplied by commodity-specific growth rates Base year traffic multiplied by commodity-specific growth rates supplemented by statistical methods
-1977 Waterborne Comm. -Data Resources, Inc.
1988 Inland Waterway Review (1988)
-1986 Waterborne Comm. -Data Resources, WEFA Group, US Dept Energy, Fertilizer Institute -Review by Corps districts, divisions
110
The answer
depends on what kind of forecast national, regional,
the analyst
requires:
longtonnage
term or near-term;
or project-specific;
definitive
estimates or projection "envelopes"; or, investment strategies or in
needs assessment or benefit
calculations; To develop
supplementing planning efforts.
general guidelines with wide applicability, appears
the most practical methodology assumptions in
to be one that uses a consistent set of macroeconomic international, national, and regional
generating
level projections,
which in
turn can be adapted by Corps planners as a basic framework for further modifications derived from local knowledge and expertise in project level analysis. that can be applied
Credibility would thus be enhanced by the traffic totals and assumpLions imbedded in The it
uniformity of national-level individual project
report forecasts
with overlapping time horizons. is more practical if
development of general forecasting guidelines incorporates a methodology that historic and forecast data, and is is is
easily updatable based on the latest to to
relatively low cost for the project manager in a format available
implement,
adaptable for use on microcomputer
any Corps planner.
The methodology incorporating commodity-specific one or more base years(s) outlined above. Orleans, traffic levels appears
growth rates applied to
to best meet the criteria Mobile, New in
This technique was used by the Huntington, and St. Louis districts for
Portland,
inland navigation projects in The 1988
their districts,
as well as the Institute
for Water Resources
Inland Waterway Review. commodity forecasts reflect
These publically available and independently derived sophisticated macroeconomic models and informed and industry experts with respect to given
judgments of academic, commodity groups.
government,
The shipper survey method tends to build in not sufficiently address long-term forecast
an optimistic bias and does while the statisticallycontinuation of
issues,
based regression and correlation methods past trends. Finally,
inherently assume a
a long-term evaluation of regional market demands, and transportaion modes -is -while detailed, the type of
resource bases, extensive, massive
production levels,
and methodologically
defensible is
unfortunately
forecasting effort that
not easily updated and may be impractical I11
for smaller staffs analysis.
facing urgent time and budget constraints
in
project
As explained in projections
the text,
IWR developed inland waterway traffic approach in an effort to capture trends by forecasting of
using a "top-down"
commodity at the national services.
level as projected by major commercial its considerable
A strength of this method is
assessment
production and consumption trends in that use waterborne methodology is transportation.
various sectors of the national economy A weakness is that the projection
too general to be disaggregated down to the lock level without This forecast methodology therefore can be used national framework that can be refined in a project a
serious loss of reliability. to provide a consistent
level analysis by planners project markets, elements.
equipped with knowledge
that can be refined in of local in
level analysis by planners equipped with knowledge
industry, these
and transportation patterns and any anticipated changes IWR's national framework forecasts
can and will be updated as new Commerce of Energy
economic and traffic Statistics Centers,
data become available DRI, SCI,
from the Waterborne the U.S.
the WEFA Group,
Departments
and Agriculture, sources.
and other commercially or publicly available the databases
forecast
Finally,
and forecasting calculations produced by IWR
are easily installed on microcomputers.
As noted earlier, part of an effort
this review of past Corps
forecasting methodologies forecasting level with one or
is
to develop and document waterway traffic include a field test at the project
guidelines which will
more divisions or districts. national
The methodology will be an attempt to synthesize for IWR's 1988 Inland
level commodity-driven projections developed
Waterway Review with data to develop
regional economic analysis and localized shipper/receiver forecasts applicable for project level analysis.
specific
* U S CO'TXNMLN7 PPTLNMGOFMCI
112