WX-MAN’s Perspective - » NOAA Reports U.S. Winter Forecast Still On

WX-MAN’s Perspective - » NOAA Reports U.S. Winter Forecast Still On Track 10/19/2007 11:41 AM WX-MAN’s Perspective Donate Donate to Help Those Devastated by Natural Disasters. About Me My Name is Brian Neudorff, Weekend Meteorologist at WJET-TV in Erie, PA. Originally from Martinsville, Indiana. I live in Erie with my wife and 3 sons. As a meteorologist I love weather and this blog is a way to talk about weather. The goal of this site is to share news and information about weather and possibly explain why weather does some of the things it does. You can contact me at wxman.com [at] gmail.com! Thank you and Enjoy... Poll Opinion Polls & Market Research http://wx-man.com/blog/?p=785 Page 1 of 17 WX-MAN’s Perspective - » NOAA Reports U.S. Winter Forecast Still On Track 10/19/2007 11:41 AM Recent Comments Recent Comments: Trisha: I find it interesting that people who choose to live a child-free life lament that their friends who have... Brian Neudorff: Mr. Ross, I just want to ask what is an appropriate number of children for a couple or a person to... Simon Ross: Let’s say irresponsible rather than bad. People who have lots of children are like the http://wx-man.com/blog/?p=785 Page 2 of 17 WX-MAN’s Perspective - » NOAA Reports U.S. Winter Forecast Still On Track 10/19/2007 11:41 AM early... Matt: Brian Neudorff for President! steven: Nice site bro! was wondering if you feel solar output will have an effect over this la nina year? THERESA: WILL THE STATE OF PA BE SEEING A HARSH WINTER FOR 2007-2008? Zack: YES! Finally. Northeast cold and snowy. Snowboarding has been horrible for the past 3 years dave: Do you think that stripe of above average precipitation over the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes is based on... Brian Neudorff: My impression is this is going to be a difficult winter to forecast… Along with the PDO and La... SteveSadlov: La Nina is here, however, negative phase PDO is probably also here. The last time frame this was true,... Advisories Pennsylvania/ New York/ Ohio Advisories NWS Advisories Forecast Enter a zip code or city name to get forecast: Weather Images http://wx-man.com/blog/?p=785 Page 3 of 17 WX-MAN’s Perspective - » NOAA Reports U.S. Winter Forecast Still On Track 10/19/2007 11:41 AM JET-TV Weather & 7-Day Regional Rad/Sat Current Surface Map Current Surface Temperature Map Great Lakes Ice/Surface Temperatures Weather Links Erie Intl Airport Arrivals http://wx-man.com/blog/?p=785 Page 4 of 17 WX-MAN’s Perspective - » NOAA Reports U.S. Winter Forecast Still On Track 10/19/2007 11:41 AM Erie Intl Airport Departures Other Airport Delays Interstate Travel Cast Temp Time Lapse Erie Allergy 6-10 Day Trend Jet Stream Astronomy Page Tropical Page Canadian Weather International Weather MORE WX Links Global Warming Accuweather.com Global Warming Blog Al Gore's Inconvenient truth Chill out over global warming Climate Audit Humans' beef with livestock: a warmer planet Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Joe Bastardi: Put Global Warming in Context Meteorologist Likens Fear of Global Warming to 'Religious Belief' Mount St. Helens Washington State's No. 1 air polluter NOAA: Global Warming Part 1: Point. Counterpoint. Countercounterpoint? Part 2: Point. Counterpoint. Countercounterpoint? Part 3: Point. Counterpoint. Countercounterpoint? Real Climate The Weather Channel's Climate Code U.S. EPS Climate Change Union of Concerned Scientists Weather Channel Climate Code Blog WX-MAN.com Open Global Warming Discussion Weather Blogs AccuWeather.com Blogs Brian's Blog (An Inside Look of a Weatherman's Mind...) CapitalWeather.com Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog Dr. Tom Arno Meadville Earth & Sky Gothamist: Weather Blog Hurricanetrack.com Jeff's Weather Blog Jesse Ferrell's Blog MySA.com The Weathervane http://wx-man.com/blog/?p=785 Page 5 of 17 WX-MAN’s Perspective - » NOAA Reports U.S. Winter Forecast Still On Track 10/19/2007 11:41 AM New England Weather NOAA News Headlines NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts Phillyweather.net StormTrack The Irish Trojan's Blog USA TODAY: The Weather Guys Weather blog from MarylandWeather.com Weather Channel Blog Weather Matrix WeatherBug Blog WeatherUSA.net WGN Weather Weblog WXNation Wire The Associates Arsenic.net Bobbo's Blog Cream of Potato Soup Insanitys Oasis jarrettmeyer.com Jenson PH03N1X.NET ron richardson photography Ron's House ScooterMcBean Senorpez Weather Forums Eastern United States Weather Forums The Weather Vane TheWeatherService Forums WX Chat.com My Pages Brian's MySpace My Resume My Weather Links My Workout Journey Winter Forecast 2007/2008 Climate Prediction Center - 3 Month Outlook http://wx-man.com/blog/?p=785 Page 6 of 17 WX-MAN’s Perspective - » NOAA Reports U.S. Winter Forecast Still On Track 10/19/2007 11:41 AM Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Outlook Discussion Consensus List of El Niño and La Niña Years Environment Canada - Monthly and Seasonal Forecasts Farmers' Almanac 2007-2008 Weather Outlook for Canada Farmers' Almanac 2007-2008 Weather Outlook for the U.S. George H. Taylor, Oregon's Fall & Winter Forecast 2006-2007 HPC's Winter Weather Forecast Resume on September 15, 2007 La Niña / El Niño Index Maps of U.S. Winter Precipitation and TemperatureDepartures Old Farmer's Almanac TheWeatherOutlook (TWO) European Seasonal Outlook TheWeatherOutlook (TWO) UK Seasonal Outlook UK Met Office: Winter 2006/7 forecast NASCAR Weather Race Day Weather Intellicast NASCAR Weather Current Conditions JET Pinpoint Doppler Search Search Tropical Advisories List of 2007 Hurricane Names http://wx-man.com/blog/?p=785 Page 7 of 17 WX-MAN’s Perspective - » NOAA Reports U.S. Winter Forecast Still On Track 10/19/2007 11:41 AM Look at the Tropics National Hurricane Center (Atlantic) There are no tropical cyclones at this time. Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook Hurricane Season Blogroll Brendan Loy's 2007 Hurricane Blog Joe Bastardi's Accuweather Blog Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog Eric Berger (SciGuy) Alan Sullivan Eye on the Storm Brian Goode's WX HurricaneTrack.com The Storm Track Max Mayfield's Blog WXNation Hurricane Center Lots of hurricane graphics Weather News AccuWeather.com Weather Headlines Northeast Storms Finally - Southeast Showers Thursday`s Tornado Recap Looking Past The Storms Strong Santa Ana Winds Another Northwest Storm Kiko Lurks off Mexico Pigskin Forecast AccuWeather.com RSS Center http://wx-man.com/blog/?p=785 Page 8 of 17 WX-MAN’s Perspective - » NOAA Reports U.S. Winter Forecast Still On Track 10/19/2007 11:41 AM NOAA's National Weather Service Headlines ...NOAA Reports U.S. Likely to Have Above-Average… ...Tropical Depression FIFTEEN... ...Storm-Based Warnings: Ushering in a New Era... ...Tropical Storm MELISSA and Tropical Storm… ...September is National Preparedness Month... Astronomy WX-Man.com Astronomy Page Climatology Erie's Daily Weather Summary Erie County, PA Snowfall Erie, PA Weather History/Climatology Page Pennsylvania State Climate/Weather History Data Calendar October 2007 S M T WT F S 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 « Sep Drought Monitor U.S. Drought Monitor Northeast Drought Monitor Midwest Drought Monitor Pennsylvania Drought Information Pennsylvania Counties with Burn Bans River Levels Northern OH & Northwest PA River Data (Courtesy NOAA Cleveland) http://wx-man.com/blog/?p=785 Page 9 of 17 WX-MAN’s Perspective - » NOAA Reports U.S. Winter Forecast Still On Track 10/19/2007 11:41 AM Western NY River Data (Courtesy NOAA Buffalo) Central PA River Data (Courtesy NOAA State College) Southeastern OH & Southwestern PA River Data (Courtesy NOAA Pittsburgh) Real-Time Hydrology Data (Courtesy USGS) Categories Erie Weather (255) Forecasting (71) Discussion (36) Geological Events (9) Earthquakes (6) Volcanoes (4) Holidays (41) Christmas (6) Tracking Santa (3) Groundhog Day (8) National Weatherperson's Day (2) New Years (1) Thanksgiving (9) Valentines (8) International Weather News (35) Canadian Weather (11) European Weather (19) Long Range Forecast (93) Seasonal Outlooks (86) Hurricane Forecast (20) Summer Forecast (5) Winter Forecast (60) Winter Forecast 2007/2008 (18) Miscellaneous Weather (132) Election Day Weather (2) Fall Foliage (1) Meteorologist (27) Weather Hoaxes (11) Weather Humor (20) Weather Movies (6) Weather Products (11) weatherlore (13) NFL Weather (3) Non Weather (14) 9/11 (3) Personal Pages (1) Severe Weather (78) http://wx-man.com/blog/?p=785 Page 10 of 17 WX-MAN’s Perspective - » NOAA Reports U.S. Winter Forecast Still On Track 10/19/2007 11:41 AM Flooding (23) Lightning (18) Storms (32) Tornadoes (30) Waterspouts (1) Space News (42) Eclipse (4) Space Shuttle (15) Space Weather (19) Sports Weather (24) Super Bowl (2) Winter Olympics (1) Winter Sports (3) Summer Weather (72) Hot Weather (58) Drought (7) Heat Wave (28) Tropical Weather (194) Hurricanes (130) Tropical Storm (64) Tropics 2005 (70) Alpha (2) Arlene (2) Bret (1) Cindy (2) Dennis (9) Emily (6) Epsilon (1) Franklin (2) Gert (1) Harvey (3) Irene (2) Katrina (35) Maria (2) Ophelia (3) Phillippe (1) Rita (11) Stan (3) Tammy (2) Vince (2) Wilma (8) Zeta (1) Tropics 2006 (35) Alberto (5) Beryl (2) Chris (3) Debby (5) http://wx-man.com/blog/?p=785 Page 11 of 17 WX-MAN’s Perspective - » NOAA Reports U.S. Winter Forecast Still On Track 10/19/2007 11:41 AM Ernesto (12) Florence (4) Gordon (3) Helene (5) Isaac (5) Tropics 2007 (72) Andrea (3) Barry (2) Chantal (2) Dean (26) Erin (5) Felix (13) Gabrielle (12) Humberto (4) Ingrid (4) Jerry (6) TD 10 (1) TV Weather (39) Weather Channel (18) Uncategorized (44) Weather Advisories (11) Weather Blogs (122) Accuweather (44) Joe Bastardi (22) CapitalWeather.com (14) WX-MAN.com (66) Comment Responce (31) WXNation.com (12) Weather History (111) Climatology (83) Erie Weather Records (15) Weather Records (33) Weather Links (5) Weather News (385) El Niño (28) Email Alerts (7) Global Warming (78) La Niña (20) NOAA (86) National Weather Service (38) Santorum Weather Bill (12) Strange Weather (15) Weather Opinons (42) Weather Safety (43) Weather Why's (53) Winter Weather (148) Cold Weather (79) http://wx-man.com/blog/?p=785 Page 12 of 17 WX-MAN’s Perspective - » NOAA Reports U.S. Winter Forecast Still On Track 10/19/2007 11:41 AM Ice (22) Lake Effect Snow (55) Buffalo Snow October 2006 (8) Snow (87) Winter Storms (43) Blizzard (20) Nor'easter (12) Recent Posts Late Season Storms: Great Lakes to the Gulf prepare for Severe Weather NOAA Reports U.S. Winter Forecast Still On Track NOAA: Sept.’07 is 8th Warmest for Contiguous U.S. Enviornmental Blog Action Day & Open Discussion Buffalo Snow, One Year Later… Al Gore & U.N. Panel on Climate Share Nobel for Peace AccuWeather.com Blog Winter Outlook NOAA’s La Niña and Winter Weather FAQ Winter Outlook for New York City/Philadelphia Metropolitan Area AccuWeather.com Reports: 3,614 Heat Records in one Week! --> Archives October 2007 (14) September 2007 (44) August 2007 (59) July 2007 (14) June 2007 (12) May 2007 (16) April 2007 (8) March 2007 (27) February 2007 (46) January 2007 (24) December 2006 (19) November 2006 (25) October 2006 (30) September 2006 (39) August 2006 (26) July 2006 (5) June 2006 (9) May 2006 (6) April 2006 (1) March 2006 (3) February 2006 (15) January 2006 (4) December 2005 (4) November 2005 (4) http://wx-man.com/blog/?p=785 Page 13 of 17 WX-MAN’s Perspective - » NOAA Reports U.S. Winter Forecast Still On Track 10/19/2007 11:41 AM October 2005 (7) September 2005 (20) August 2005 (17) July 2005 (23) June 2005 (5) May 2005 (5) April 2005 (7) February 2005 (12) January 2005 (2) December 2004 (7) November 2004 (12) October 2004 (1) September 2004 (1) Some Graphics Courtesy Meta Login Valid XHTML XFN Prev/Next Posts « NOAA: Sept.’07 is 8th Warmest for Contiguous U.S. | Home | Late Season Storms: Great Lakes to the Gulf prepare for Severe Weather » Thursday, October 18th, 2007 at 10:31 am NOAA Reports U.S. Winter Forecast Still On Track http://wx-man.com/blog/?p=785 Page 14 of 17 WX-MAN’s Perspective - » NOAA Reports U.S. Winter Forecast Still On Track 10/19/2007 11:41 AM By Brian Neudorff U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook for October 2007 to January 2008. + High Resolution (Credit: NOAA) In the first scheduled update to the 2007-08 U.S. winter outlook, NOAA seasonal forecasters say the latest data and model runs confirm their earlier prediction for above-average temperatures over most of the country and a continuation of drier-than-average conditions across much of the Southwest and Southeast. “The prediction for a warmer than normal winter is still on course,” said Michael Halpert, head of forecast operations and acting deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Our big concern continues to be the persistence of drought across large parts of the country’s southern tier. Nearly half of the Southeast is in extreme drought and water supplies have reached critical levels in some cities.” Winter temperature outlook for December 2007 through February 2008. + High Resolution (Credit: NOAA) Despite some recent short-term relief over the Southeast and Tennessee Valley, and the potential for additional short-term relief during the next 10 days, NOAA meteorologists predict that the drought will continue through the winter for many areas in the Southeast. Although forecasters cannot rule out much-needed rain in any location in coming months, the latest U.S. drought outlook shows reduced chances for significant relief along the Gulf and Southeast coasts, as the odds for soaking tropical rains diminish as the Atlantic hurricane season winds down. “Drought is by no means limited to the Southeast, as severe drought expanded northward all the way to Delaware this month. The Washington D.C. area is experiencing one of the most notable dry spells on record, with October 17 the 33rd consecutive day without measurable rain at Reagan National Airport,” said Douglas LeComte, drought specialist at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. Additionally, the onset of La Niña means that drought will likely persist in the Mid Atlantic and the Southwest from Southern California into Arizona. In contrast, the drought forecast shows continued improvement for the Northeast and Great Lakes region, as well as the Northwest and northern Rockies. “Even though December, January and February are likely to be milder than average for much of the country, people should still expect some typical winter weather this season,” said Halpert. Winter precipitation outlook for December 2007 through February 2008. + High Resolution (Credit: NOAA) For the country as a whole, NOAA’s updated heating degree day forecast for December through February projects a 3.4 percent warmer winter than the 30-year normal, but a 0.7 percent cooler winter than last year. http://wx-man.com/blog/?p=785 Page 15 of 17 WX-MAN’s Perspective - » NOAA Reports U.S. Winter Forecast Still On Track 10/19/2007 11:41 AM The 2007-08 U.S. winter outlook will be updated for the final time this season on Nov. 15 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. The U.S. winter outlook is produced by a team of scientists at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center in association with NOAA-funded partners. Scientists base this forecast on long-term climate trends and a variety of forecast tools from statistical techniques to extremely complex dynamical ocean-atmosphere coupled models and composites. NOAA is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and information service delivery for transportation, and by providing environmental stewardship of our nation’s coastal and marine resources. Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is working with its federal partners, more than 70 countries and the European Commission to develop a global monitoring network that is as integrated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects. Sphere: Related Content This entry is filed under NOAA, Winter Forecast 2007/2008, Long Range Forecast, Winter Forecast, Seasonal Outlooks, Weather News. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site. Leave a Reply Name (required) Mail (will not be published) (required) Website You can use these tags:

Submit Comment WX-MAN's Perspective is powered by WordPress | Using Tiga theme with a bit of Ozh Disclaimer: WX-MAN’s Perspective is maintained by meteorologist Brian Neudorff. The purpose of WXMAN’s Perspective is to take a closer look at Erie weather & show interesting weather events around the country and the world. For an accurate weather forecast for Erie, please go to the JET-TV site... This site is http://wx-man.com/blog/?p=785 Page 16 of 17 WX-MAN’s Perspective - » NOAA Reports U.S. Winter Forecast Still On Track 10/19/2007 11:41 AM not a substitution, but an extension of weather information... and Comments (RSS) http://wx-man.com/blog/?p=785 Page 17 of 17