2007 San Diego Real Estate Forecast

2007 San Diego Real Estate Forecast Compliments of: SUSAN LAXSON 2007 The Transition Year = Return to Normal “The real estate market will pretty much stay the current course. The first two or three quarters of this year will be the tail end of the ugliness,” said Ryan Ratcliff, economist at the UCLA Anderson Forecast. “Things will pick up before the end of 2007.” This sentiment was reinforced by Gary Zimmerman, senior economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, who believes that the residential market should pick up by the end of the year, after it “flushes out” any excess inventory. DataQuick Information System’s John Karevoll predicts that 2007 will be a return to a normal market, which means that sales and prices are in the middle of the grid “historically.” He believes, by Spring, the market will be more in balance between buyers and sellers. Let’s review what happened in 2006 in 5 key sectors and what forecasters are predicting for the coming year. Home Price and Sales statistics are from DataQuick Information systems, Union-Tribune (1/16/2007), Roger Showley: 2006 Housing Decline Paints Uneven Picture SAN DIEGO MEDIAN HOME PRICES Resale Houses Resale Condos New Houses&Condos All Houses & Condos Area Rancho Santa Fe (92067) Rancho Santa Fe (92091) Del Mar (92014) Carmel Valley (92130) Solana Beach (92075) Encinitas (92024) Cardiff (92007) Carlsbad NW (92008) Carlsbad SE (92009) Carlsbad NE (92010) Carlsbad SW (92011) La Jolla (92037) $554,000 $390,000 $444,000 $490,000 +0.9% -0.5% -6.7% -0.8% from from from from 2005-2006 2005-2006 2005-2006 2005-2006 ‘05 ‘06 median price–resale homes $2,850,000 $2,300,000 $1,500,000 $1,050,000 $1,125,500 $840,000 $860,000 $735,000 $775,000 $659,500 $836,000 $1,750,000 $2,690,000 $2,562,500 $1,460,000 $1,028,000 $1,200,000 $802,500 $850,000 $725,000 $770,000 $655,000 $827,500 $1,700,000 % change -5.6% +11.4 -2.7% -2.1% +6.6% -4.5% -1.2% -1.4% -.6% -.7% -1.0% -2.9% ‘05 ‘06 # of sales 149 39 138 475 87 547 130 215 535 160 266 363 120 33 107 399 87 432 107 172 392 119 183 304 It is important to remember that the 2006 overall annual median price ($490,000) for new and resale homes has nearly tripled since 1996 when the median price was $169,000. In 2000, the overall median price for a home in San Diego County was $234,000 and increased 15-20% annually through 2005. Prediction: Prices should hold. CAR is predicting a drop of 2%. One economist, Michael Carney, economist with Real Estate Research Council @ Cal Poly Pomona, predicts prices will fall 5% as buyers wait on sidelines. Marney Cox, chief economist at SANDAG, concurs. Housing Predictor.com (Clickpress, 1/5/07)) predicts that San Diego home prices will drop more than 13% in 2007, more than any other California county. NUMBER OF SALES Resale Houses Resale Condos New Houses/Condos All Houses/Condos 21,760 8,881 11,481 42,122 Down Down Down Down 22.9% 29.8% 20.8% 23.9% Predictions: There will be a 7% decrease in the number of sales in 2007, according to Leslie Appleton-Young, Chief Economist with the California Association of Realtors. She says the number of unsold homes has diminished since summer, but the market still has to absorb some of the homes for sale left over from 2006 before the sales count levels off. She feels we are almost there. Note: Carlsbad was the only zip code (92011) in which the number of attached and detached sold listings was greater in 2006 than 2005. INVENTORY – Single Family Homes Avg. # of days on the market San Diego 2005 52 days 2006 67 days This is the market’s wild card, according to Delores Conway, with Casden Real Estate Economic Forecast at USC. “For now, sellers are choosing not to compete with builders of new homes who have been lowering prices and offering concessions. Typically the number of resale homes goes up in spring which could force prices downward.” She says that there will be a big surge in inventory only if the job market turns negative. One sign of a bottoming market is the number of homes listed on Sandicor Inc’s Multiple Listing Service, which peaked at nearly 23,000 in August 2006 before falling nearly 30% to 16,300 in early January 2007. At the height of the market frenzy in Spring 2004, the number was as low as 3,083. Whenever there is over 5 months inventory there is a downward pressure on prices. There are signs that inventory has peaked, mortgage applications are up, and housing prices are stabilizing. FINANCING Interest rates will likely stay within 1% of current levels (6% for a 30-year fixed mortgage) through 2007. Some mortgage experts are predicting that a 30-year fixed mortgage will reach 6.5% by the end of this year. Douglas Duncan, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association, said he expects rates to increase mid-to-late 2008. NEW CONSTRUCTION The number of building permits issued in San Diego in 2006 was down approximately 30% from 2005. It is predicted that there will be 10,000 building permits issued in 2007, down 1,000 from 2006. The percentage of permits for attached homes has risen dramatically over the last 6 years. Russ Valone, MarketPointe Realty Advisors, points out that “after production of condos and town 2 houses edged up to 15 % of new housing in 2000, the attached-home share of the market in San Diego soared to 26% in 2001, to 43% in 2003, to 62% in 2004 and to 69% last year.” Alan Nevin, MarketPointe Realty Advisors, predicts a slow-down in high-rise urban building and less focus on affordable entry-level housing, which is not as profitable. In 2006, San Diego County construction firms lost a total of 5,000 jobs, more than 5 percent of their work force, and real estate firms cut 500 positions in December alone, according to the California Employment Development Department. ADDITIONAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS Positives: 1) 2) 3) 4) Tourism is one of San Diego’s strongest markets and economic indicators. The hotel industry is doing very well with an occupancy rate of 78.3%. Unemployment is at 3.9 %, well below the state level of 4.5% and the national level of 4.6 % (Marney Cox, San Diego Metropolitan, Jan. 2007). The commercial real estate market has shown considerable strength in San Diego and will offset economic losses in the residential markets. San Diego ranked #5 in the 2007 National Apartment Index compiled by Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Brokerage Company. This index determines the lowest rental apartment vacancy rate in the nation as well as the strongest growth in rents throughout the year. Others in the top 5 included New York (#1) Orange County (#2) Oakland (#3) Las Vegas (#4). San Diego has been given a vote of confidence by the mega-developer, The Irvine Company, which has spent nearly $1 billion to buy six top-quality office towers, including One America plaza, Symphony towers, and Wells Fargo Plaza. This year, Irvine purchased a 1.5 acre $60 million site on the corner of Broadway and Pacific Highway. It sees a bright future for downtown San Diego. 5) Negatives: 1) San Diego County added approximately 25,000 new jobs in 2005 and 15,000-20,000 jobs in 2006. 30% of the job growth was real estate-related. Only 13,000-15,000 jobs are forecasted for 2007, primarily due to the slowdown in real estate and our slumping manufacturing industry. This is a weakening in our economy, but NOT a recession! Condo conversions: 2006 marked the first foreclosure of a large condo conversion project, a 280-unit complex in Oceanside developed by Maisel-Presley, one of San Diego’s largest and most active condo converters. There is now a glut of conversion units on the market – “5,987 units in 115 projects - almost a two-year supply,” according to Peter Dennehy with The Sullivan Group Real Estate Advisors. While converters are feeling pain from the housing slowdown, many are expected to ride out this down cycle and they have the deep pockets to do so. Most of the time, real estate is a function of the overall economy: job creation, GDP, interest rates. Now the roles are reversed and real estate is the prime mover of the economy. Alan Gin, publisher of USD’s Index of Leading Indicators for San Diego County, says that San Diego’s economy has been outperforming the nation’s economy since 1999. He does not believe that San Diego will outperform the rest of the state and the nation in 2007. He says that the weak housing market will hurt the local economy in 3 ways: 1) slow or negative job growth in construction and real estate-related jobs 2) weaker consumer spending due to lower home equity 3) reserve wealth effect – people feel poorer as the value of their home declines He feels there may be a pick-up in the second half of the year, especially if interest rates and inventory continue to go down. 4) 5) High oil and gas prices are always a concern. For every 10-cent increase in oil/gas prices, it takes $7 million from our local economy. Money spent on gas/oil is money that could be spent in other sectors. We still have an affordability crisis in California. Our median home price is twice the national median. 2) 3) 3 Positive and Negative: San Diego is mostly a biotech city (there are 500 life sciences firms) and, thanks to Qualcomm, a tech-centric city, says Bud Leedom, publisher of the “California Stock Newsletter.” Venture capital pumped $1.06 billion into San Diego in 2006, with the biggest percentage going to biotechnology and medical-device companies, but “investors have become wary of channeling money into high-risk areas such as biotechnology, which can reap large profits from successful drugs or fall by the wayside from too many failed attempts,” says Alan Aiello, president of Evergreen Wealth Management in La Jolla. A largely Democratic Congress is less likely to support drug industry-favored legislation than its Republican counterparts, though the corporations involved in stem-cell research could benefit. Looking South: Mexico has a significant impact on San Diego. As pointed out by The London Group Realty Advisors, “Most of the San Diego’s remaining vacant land lies near the border… Mexicans annually expend $4 billion on retail goods in San Diego County and there is a growing frenzy of Americans purchasing vacation homes along the Baja Peninsula.” The new president, Felipe Calderon, is off to a good start but there have been kidnappings and killings in Tijuana, environmental problems, a long and unpredictable border wait, and illegal entry issues. Illegal immigrants are entwined in the local economy and stricter enforcement of illegal immigration laws could deprive San Diego of a much-needed workforce. KEEPING THINGS IN PERSPECTIVE 1) MEDIA DRAMA - George Chamberlin, executive editor of The Daily Transcript and local TV and radio commentator points out that, when there is a 25% correction in gold and oil, it is called a correction. When there is a 5% decline in real estate, it is called a bursting bubble. In reality, this is a normal, healthy correction based on people’s reluctance to buy. FORECLOSURE FEARS - A RealtyTrac survey has shown that foreclosures are on the rise - in San Diego, California, and the nation. In San Diego County, the number of recorded notices of defaults was 8,816 in 2006 versus 3,933 in 2005. But, as George Chamberlin notes, “..only one-tenth of 1% of all homes in California was re-purchased by the bank...In 2006, there were 636 REO’s in California, 1743 in Georgia (which has 1/10 the population of California), and 4,122 in Ohio.” APPRECIATE THE APPRECIATION - George Chamberlin reminds us that the best house in Pittsburgh sells for $115,000 and will be the same price 10 years from now. San Diego housing will increase in value over time because of the desirability of the location and because we have limited supply. THE LAW OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND - Vista is totally built out; Carlsbad is 90% built out. Supply is limited and demand will grow. CALIFORNIA RULES - Did you know that one out of every 8 U.S. residents lives in California? No wonder a lot of national housing news seems to center on California. 2) 3) 4) 5) Dramatic photo taken from one of the worst storms in San Diego history! 4 Sources of Information Outlook 2007 -Seventh Annual Residential Real Estate Conference, Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate, University of San Diego, 12/18/2006 “Money in the Morning,” George Chamberlin, The Daily Transcript, 1/17/2007 “Remember Normal?,” Diane Wedner, L.A. Times, 1/21/2007 “Sales Down, Prices up for 2006 Housing Market,” Annette Haddad, L.A. Times, 1/16/2007 “There’s Nothing Wrong with a Nice Normal Year in Housing,” Alan N. Nevin, San Diego Metropolitan , January/2007 “2006 Housing Decline Paints Uneven Picture,” Roger Showley, Emmet Pierce, Lori Weisberg, Union-Tribune, 1/16/2007 “No Recession Likely for San Diego’s Slowly Growing Economy,” Marney Cox, San Diego Metropolitan, January 2007 “Giving a Nod to Real Estate,” John Patrick Ford, The Daily Transcript, 1/4/2007 “Local Economic Slowdown Continues,” Kelly Bennett, Voice of San Diego.com, 1/7/2007 “Commercial Real Estate’s Slowdown is Coming,” Gary London, San Diego Metropolitan, 1/2007 “New California Forecast: 2 Percent Home Price Decline,” Broderick Perkins, Realty Times, 10/23/2006 “California Dreamin’,” Blanche Evans, Realty Times, 12/26/2005 “Experts See Slow Growth for 2007,” George Chamberlin, The Daily Transcript, 12/1/2006 “Local Economy To Do Better Than State, Nation in ’07,” Michelle Mowad, San Diego Business Journal, 1/1/2007 “Home Prices, Employment at Risk in 2007,” Patrick Wright, North County Times, 1/7/2007 “Local Leaders, Economists Look Forward Toward 2007 with Optimism,” Jeran Wittenstein, The Daily Transcript, 12/1/2006 “Wall Street Riding High,” Dean Calbreath, Union-Tribune, 12/30/2006 “Days of Making a Quick Buck on a House Might not Return for Years,” Pat Broderick, San Diego Business Journal, 1/1/2007 “2007 Home Prices Expected to Fall,” Jeff Collins, Orange County Register, 10/19/2006 “Happy New-ish Year,” Dean Calbreath, Union-Tribune, 12/31/2006 “Home Prices Projected to Fall in 2007,” RIS Media, 1/7/2007 “Baja Water, Politics and Housing,” Patrick Osio, San Diego Metropolitan, 1/2007 “Housing: Curb Your Enthusiasm About a Recovery,” Peter Coy, Business Week Online, 12/25/2006 “The Real Estate Depression of 2007,” Alex Gabor, OpEdNews, 1/6/2007 “2006 Home Sales Down 25 Percent,” Dave Downey, North County Times, 1/12/2007 “Economic Forecast for San Diego: Pretty Good,” Heather Chambers, The Daily Transcript, 1/18/2007 “Condo Complex Goes Back to Lender,” Mike Freeman, Union-Tribune, 1/11/2007 “Report: It’ll Feel Like ’06 for Apartment Renters in ’07,” Tom Acitell, New York Observer, 1/17/2007 “Investors Moving Away From Biotech, Keeping Close Eye on Real Estate in 2007,” Heather Chambers, The Daily Transcript, 1/11/2007 “Carlsbad Only Market in County Showing Attached and Detached Resales Growth in 2006,” Erik Pisor, The Daily Transcript, 1/15/2007 “Irvine Company Buys Key Site in Downtown San Diego,” Mike Freeman, Union-Tribune, 1/17/2007 “December Job Numbers Show Softening Economy,” Dean Calbreath, Union-Tribune, 1/20/2007 “North San Diego County HomeDex,” North San Diego County Association of Realtors, January 2007 “Hot Housing Market Expected to Cool Down,” Don Jergler, Long Beach Press Telegram, 10/16/2006 “Mortgage Interest Rates Forecasted to Stay Neutral for the Year,” Erik Pisor, The Daily Transcript, 1/17/2007 “Goodbye Single-Family Home: Town Houses Seizing Growing Share of County’s New-Home Market,” Dave Downey, North County Times, 1/5/2007 “More Than $1 Billion ‘Ventured’ into San Diego Companies in 2006,” Bradley J. Fikes, North County Times, 1/6/2007 “S.D. Home Builders Scaling Back,” Roger Showley, Union-Tribune, 1/5/2007 “If They Build It, Will Buyers Come?,” Kelly Bennett, Voice of San Diego.com, 1/7/2007 “Fitch Report Says Housing Weakness Will Continue This Year,” The Daily Transcript, 1/15/2007 “Housing Bubble and Real Estate Market Tracker,” Judy Weil, Seeking Alpha, 1/5/2007 “News Alert,” Wall Street Journal, 1/5/2007 “New-Home Forecast: Gloomy Early, Then Sunny,” Dave Downey, North County Times, 1/4/2007 “Home Sales Forecast Numbers Mixed,” Bruce Spence, Z_Money, 10/19/2006 “U.S. Foreclosure Filings up 42% from 2005,” P.R. NewsWire, 1/25/2007 Compliments of: SUSAN LAXSON Prudential California Realty (858) 775-3329 or (760) 567-9100 5 Home prices for 2006 Home prices in San Diego County fell 0.8 percent last year, posting an overall median of $490,000. The median price for each category represents the midpoint of all sales, with half below and half above that price. The sales volumes include nearly all transactions filed with the county recorder during the year. The new home category comprises newly built single-family houses and condominiums, as well as apartments that were NEW SINGLE-FAMILY/CONDOMINIUMS Median Median No. sold Chng. ’05 ’06 ’05 ’06 219 12 29 45 217 22 623 13 32 99 149 178 17 81 39 75 86 71 93 41 36 11 1 129 14 5 2 290 2,410 $334,000 $275,000 $351,000 $275,000 $1,050,000 $501,000 $275,000 $311,500 $554,000 $285,000 $500,000 $296,000 $310,000 $345,000 $415,000 $259,500 -22.3% $345,500 $345,000 $279,000 $815,000 $405,000 $445,000 $311,000 $420,000 $286,000 25.6% -1.7% 1.5% -22.4% -19.2% 61.8% -0.2% -24.2% 0.4% converted into condominiums. To find out more, log onto DataQuick Information Systems at www.dqnews.com or the Union-Tribune’s Web site, realestate.uniontrib.com/area_homesales/index.php. ANNUAL TOTAL SINGLE-FAMILY/CONDOMINIUMS Median No. sold Median ’05 ’06 Chng. ’05 ’06 652 373 $444,000 $489,000 10.1% Central San Diego Place ZIP code SINGLE-FAMILY Median Median No. sold ’05 ’06 ’05 ’06 Allied Gardens, 92120 288 271 $581,000 $560,000 Del Cerro City Heights 92105 409 326 $406,000 $411,000 Clairemont 92117 498 393 $547,500 $532,500 College 92115 569 470 $490,000 $500,000 Coronado 92118 165 115 $1,498,750 $1,605,000 Downtown 92101 15 4 $731,250 $750,000 Encanto 92114 719 507 $435,500 $440,000 Golden Hill 92102 193 167 $425,000 $440,000 Hillcrest, 92103 178 152 $849,500 $805,000 Mission Hills Kensington, 92116 281 237 $565,000 $533,500 Normal Hts. La Jolla 92037 363 304 $1,750,000 $1,700,000 Linda Vista 92111 270 231 $530,000 $517,500 Logan Hts. 92113 209 174 $379,000 $395,000 Mira Mesa 92126 622 418 $525,000 $500,000 Mission Bch., 92109 212 174 $882,500 $870,000 Pacific Bch. Mission Valley 92108 NA 1 NA $394,000 Morena 92110 134 94 $675,000 $660,000 North Park 92104 277 264 $552,500 $530,000 Ocean Beach 92107 158 149 $780,000 $750,000 Paradise Hills 92139 301 201 $460,000 $455,000 Point Loma 92106 195 173 $891,000 $935,000 San Carlos 92119 237 176 $550,000 $549,500 Scripps Rch. 92131 420 315 $750,000 $735,000 Serra Mesa 92123 189 160 $522,250 $500,000 Sorrento Val. 92121 39 37 $817,500 $800,000 Tierrasanta 92124 190 162 $650,000 $630,000 University City 92122 180 120 $720,000 $705,500 TOTAL 7,311 5,795 $545,000 $535,000 RESALE CONDOMINIUMS No. sold Median Median ’05 ’06 ’05 ’06 145 141 104 218 161 773 5 65 251 145 452 224 21 449 377 90 $338,000 $305,000 66 74 103 108 576 4 38 166 Chng. -3.6% 1.2% -2.7% 2.0% 7.1% 2.6% 1.0% 3.5% -5.2% -5.6% -2.9% -2.4% 4.2% -4.8% -1.4% Chng. -9.8% $250,000 $243,500 -2.6% 149 $388,000 $342,500 -11.7% 46 $312,500 $309,000 -1.1% 235 $962,000$1,072,500 11.5% 17 $597,500 $589,500 -1.3% 1199 $280,000 $295,000 5.4% 22 $299,000 $292,500 -2.2% 45 $467,500 $456,000 -2.5% 220 -4.8% 123 360 65 42 156 161 699 421 $347,000 $380,000 9.5% 648 512 $508,000 $489,000 -3.7% 1,022 790 $403,000 $414,000 2.7% 343 245 $1,225,000 $1,299,000 6.0% 1,987 1,203 $540,000 $494,000 -8.5% 746 524 $430,000 $439,000 2.1% 303 237 $381,000 $399,000 4.7% 649 417 $602,000 $575,000 -4.5% 549 1,175 559 272 1,227 750 481 787 408 266 721 506 $444,000 $416,000 -6.3% S 95 $343,000 $326,500 305 160 11 264 257 $625,000 $410,000 $300,000 $360,000 $580,000 $350,000 $376,000 $328,000 $446,000 $353,000 $575,000 $328,500 $453,000 $355,000 $507,000 $444,000 $455,250 $420,000 $685,000 9.6% $369,000 -10.0% $305,000 1.7% $335,000 -6.9% $540,000 -6.9% $538,250 7.7% $292,000 -1.4% $397,000 28.1% $320,000 -7.2% $430,000 3.6% $934,000 $1,044,000 11.8% $455,000 $450,000 -1.1% $362,000 $392,000 8.3% $442,000 $430,000 -2.7% $630,000 $637,000 1.1% $394,000 $488,000 $438,000 $630,000 $410,000 $847,000 $463,000 $673,000 $473,000 $636,000 $557,000 $484,000 $474,000 $384,000 -2.5% $467,000 -4.3% $440,000 0.5% $622,000 -1.3% $410,000 0.0% $852,000 0.6% $454,000 -1.9% $723,000 7.4% $468,000 -1.1% $654,000 2.8% $549,000 -1.4% $426,000 -12.0% $466,000 -1.7% A 0.0% 492 303 -2.2% 256 155 -4.1% 204 119 -3.8% 97 67 -1.1% 155 76 4.9% 30 31 -0.1% 158 111 -2.0% 333 213 -4.3% 137 74 -2.1% 67 23 -3.1% 156 104 -2.0% 287 222 -1.8% 5,903 3,815 $360,000 2.9% 121 $376,500 0.1% 5 $319,000 -2.7% 84 $470,000 5.4% 29 $349,000 -1.1% 70 $550,000 -4.3% 52 $300,000 -8.7% 6 $435,500 -3.9% 145 $397,500 12.0% 217 $466,750 -7.9% 9 $427,000 -3.8% 3 $415,000 -8.8% 238 $419,500 -0.1% 4,038 $575,000 $470,000 -18.3% 613 390 $1,175,000 $408,000 -65.3% 395 320 $327,500 $340,000 3.8% 565 476 $425,000 $406,000 -4.5% 284 257 $319,500 $289,000 -9.5% 526 313 $837,000 $389,000 -53.5% 277 215 $590,000 $704,000 19.3% 401 288 $956,000 $1,170,000 22.4% 898 657 $504,000 $480,250 -4.7% 543 248 $814,500 $433,000 -46.8% 115 65 $570,500 $332,500 -41.7% 349 268 $339,000 $319,000 -5.9% 705 632 $423,000 $375,000 -11.3% 17,252 12,020 East County Place Alpine Boulevard Campo Descanso El Cajon S El Cajon N El Cajon E Jacumba Jamul La Mesa, Mt. Helix La Mesa, Grossmont Lakeside Lemon Grove Pine Valley Rancho San Diego Santee Spring Valley TOTAL ZIP code 91901 91905 91906 91916 92019 92020 92021 91934 91935 91941 91942 92040 91945 91962 91978 92071 91977 No. sold ’05 ’06 245 199 12 21 48 32 23 19 490 338 376 313 469 306 8 9 103 84 498 418 177 394 284 34 100 148 298 205 22 85 SINGLE-FAMILY Median Median ’05 ’06 Chng. $632,500 $660,000 4.3% $369,000 $359,000 -2.7% $345,000 $357,500 3.6% $482,500 $505,500 4.8% $569,000 $560,000 -1.6% $484,000 $490,000 1.2% $485,000 $477,000 -1.6% $243,000 $242,500 -0.2% $775,000 $780,000 0.6% $525,000 $532,500 1.4% $494,500 $500,000 $443,500 $450,000 $570,750 $474,500 $460,000 $492,500 $488,000 $489,000 $451,000 $475,000 $519,773 $464,000 $475,000 $493,500 -1.3% -2.2% 1.7% 5.6% -8.9% No. sold ’05 ’06 24 13 NA NA NA NA NA NA 178 135 109 66 150 103 NA NA 1 NA 103 65 152 86 13 NA 32 CONDOMINIUMS Median Median ’05 ’06 Chng. $317,500 $313,000 -1.4% NA NA 0.0% NA NA 0.0% NA NA 0.0% $357,500 $349,500 -2.2% $320,000 $282,000 -11.9% $328,000 $313,500 -4.4% NA NA 0.0% $350,000 NA 0.0% $330,000 $290,000 -12.1% -2.7% -6.5% -7.0% 0.0% -5.9% -0.3% -3.0% -4.5% SINGLE-FAMILY/CONDOMINIUMS Median Median No. sold ’05 ’06 ’05 ’06 28 32 $752,000 $395,000 2 3 $280,000 $417,000 99 50 $389,500 $407,500 NA NA NA NA 34 21 $345,000 $298,000 240 88 $261,000 $264,250 80 141 $475,000 $280,000 NA 1 NA $330,000 2 3 $840,000 $900,000 51 117 $795,000 $805,000 21 65 18 2 1 199 21 863 33 42 11 NA 2 88 94 726 $370,500 $280,000 $316,000 $312,500 NA $466,000 $600,000 $401,000 $354,000 $278,750 $304,000 NA $572,500 Chng. -47.5% 48.9% 4.6% 0.0% -13.6% 1.2% -41.1% 0.0% 7.1% 1.3% -4.5% -0.4% -3.8% 0.0% 0.0% SINGLE-FAMILY/CONDOMINIUMS No. sold Median Median ’05 ’06 Chng. ’05 ’06 297 244 $618,000 $607,000 -1.8% 14 24 $356,000 $366,000 2.8% 147 82 $375,000 $388,000 3.5% 23 19 $483,000 $506,000 4.8% 702 494 $505,000 $491,000 -2.8% 725 467 $386,000 $418,000 8.3% 699 550 $450,000 $396,000 -12.0% 8 10 $243,000 $251,000 3.3% 106 87 $772,000 $784,000 1.6% 652 600 $515,000 $559,000 8.5% 350 545 315 36 133 273 396 229 22 112 $418,000 $437,000 $431,000 $442,000 $507,000 $431,000 $436,000 $448,000 $417,000 -0.2% $432,000 $435,000 $475,000 $472,000 -1.1% 0.9% 7.5% -6.9% 92 $335,000 $326,000 56 $264,000 $246,750 13 $315,000 $293,000 NA NA NA 25 $322,000 $303,000 166 $336,000 $335,000 90 $330,000 $320,000 824 $330,000 $315,000 503 363 685 512 4,449 3,372 -2.2% 301 3.3% 185 0.2% 1,334 $492,500 5.7% $682,000 13.7% $400,000 -0.2% 1,003 617 891 696 6,646 4,922 $433,000 0.5% $483,000 10.8% $450,000 0.4% North County Inland SINGLE-FAMILY CONDOMINIUMS ZIP No. sold No. sold Median Median Median Median Place code Chng. ’05 ’06 ’05 ’06 ’05 ’06 ’05 ’06 Bonsall 92003 52 42 $947,500 $776,000 -18.1% 37 25 $335,000 $345,000 Borrego Spr. 92004 75 50 $310,000 $318,750 2.8% 34 19 $142,250 $210,000 Escondido S 92025 409 287 $510,000 $542,500 6.4% 140 88 $315,000 $328,000 Escondido N 92026 700 467 $510,000 $515,000 1.0% 156 104 $325,000 $320,000 Escondido E 92027 728 551 $470,000 $485,000 3.2% 129 81 $275,000 $275,500 Escondido W 92029 270 188 $620,500 $652,500 5.2% 14 5 $349,000 $310,000 Fallbrook 92028 740 554 $575,000 $570,000 -0.9% 33 18 $379,000 $362,500 Julian 92036 85 56 $306,000 $344,500 12.6% NA NA NA NA Palomar Mtn. 92060 4 4 $205,000 $210,000 2.4% NA NA NA NA Pauma Valley 92061 5 7 $467,500 $585,000 25.1% 4 3 $372,500 $412,000 Peñasquitos 92129 607 447 $659,000 $635,000 -3.6% 209 153 $347,250 $339,000 Poway 92064 600 493 $590,000 $650,000 10.2% 81 78 $425,000 $417,000 Ramona 92065 605 418 $535,000 $547,000 2.2% 57 20 $330,000 $320,000 Rancho 92127 390 300 $898,750 $845,000 -6.0% 207 161 $397,000 $407,500 Bernardo W Rancho 92128 594 482 $650,000 $610,000 -6.2% 640 448 $420,000 $394,750 Bernardo E Rancho 92067 149 120 $2,850,000 $2,690,000 -5.6% 6 5 $945,000$1,400,000 Santa Fe Rancho 92091 39 33 $2,300,000 $2,562,500 11.4% 22 18 $805,000 $835,000 Santa Fe post office San Marcos N 92069 615 378 $545,000 $530,000 -2.8% 74 53 $347,246 $330,750 San Marcos S 92078 556 394 $611,750 $620,000 1.3% 265 218 $435,000 $420,000 Santa Ysabel 92020 9 4 $492,000 $650,000 32.1% NA NA NA NA Valley Center 92082 233 164 $657,000 $655,000 -0.3% NA 1 NA $100,000 Vista S 92081 399 260 $538,000 $533,750 -0.8% 128 76 $392,750 $407,000 Vista W 92083 380 237 $465,000 $475,000 2.2% 101 48 $325,000 $318,000 Vista E 92084 521 374 $537,750 $555,000 3.2% 61 32 $365,000 $360,000 Warner Springs92086 25 9 $300,000 $402,500 34.2% NA NA NA NA TOTAL 8,790 6,319 $560,000 $570,000 1.8% 2,398 1,654 $365,000 $368,000 Chng. 3.0% 47.6% 4.1% -1.5% 0.2% -11.2% -4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% -2.4% -1.9% -3.0% 2.6% -6.0% 48.1% 3.7% SINGLE-FAMILY/CONDOMINIUMS No. sold Median Median ’05 ’06 ’05 ’06 50 17 $525,000 $1,258,500 6 7 $198,000 $320,000 26 78 $405,000 $409,500 153 134 $739,000 $376,000 45 129 $666,500 $556,000 40 20 $700,000 $342,500 81 59 $790,000 $863,000 3 2 $425,000 $301,500 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 145 34 $572,250 $302,500 48 6 $438,000 $1,075,000 34 37 $757,500 $445,000 503 831 $632,500 $640,000 334 24 8 128 33 2 56 359 1 97 7 22 21 9 2,089 $370,000 SINGLE-FAMILY/CONDOMINIUMS No. sold Median Median Chng. ’05 ’06 Chng. ’05 ’06 139.7% 139 84 $632,000 $745,000 17.9% 61.6% 115 76 $255,000 $292,000 14.5% 1.1% 575 453 $458,000 $478,000 4.4% -49.1% 1,009 705 $516,000 $460,000 -10.9% -16.6% 902 761 $452,000 $475,000 5.1% -51.1% 324 213 $619,000 $615,000 -0.6% 9.2% 854 631 $588,000 $591,000 0.5% -29.1% 88 58 $310,000 $343,000 10.6% 0.0% 4 4 $205,000 $210,000 2.4% 0.0% 9 10 $425,000 $533,000 25.4% -47.1% 961 634 $578,000 $546,000 -5.5% 145.4% 729 577 $562,000 $623,000 10.9% -41.3% 696 475 $529,000 $529,000 0.0% 1.2% 1,100 1,292 $683,000 $659,000 -3.5% 1,568 1,058 179 69 $496,000 $480,000 -3.2% $290,000 -21.6% -2.8% $1,654,500 $1,608,000 158 $2,626,000 $2,423,000 -7.7% 53 $1,783,000 $2,006,000 12.5% $522,000 $622,000 $492,000 $710,000 $516,000 $446,000 $537,000 $192,000 $541,000 $510,000 $620,000 $624,000 $705,000 $505,000 $444,000 $557,000 $233,000 $545,000 -2.3% -0.3% 26.8% -0.7% -2.1% -0.4% 3.7% 21.4% 0.7% $1,950,000 $3,350,250 71.8% $517,500 $685,500 NA $793,000 $1,037,500 $667,250 $903,000 $69,250 $629,750 -4.8% 299 -3.4% 878 0.0% NA 0.0% 149 3.6% 13 -2.2% 22 -1.4% 27 0.0% 22 0.8% 2,910 $541,000 4.5% 988 487 $741,500 8.2% 1,699 971 $520,000 0.0% 9 5 $795,500 0.3% 382 262 $478,000 -53.9% 540 343 $391,750 -41.3% 503 307 $898,000 -0.6% 609 427 $63,500 -8.3% 47 18 $610,000 -3.1% 14,098 10,062 North County Coast 8,790 6,319 $560,000 $570,000 1.8% 2,398 1,654 $365,000 $368,000 0.8% 2,910 2,089 $629,750 $610,000 -3.1% 14,098 10,062 $541,000 $545,000 0.7% North County Coast Place Cardiff Carlsbad NW Carlsbad SE Carlsbad NE Carlsbad SW Carmel Valley Del Mar Encinitas Oceanside S Oceanside E Oceanside N Solana Beach TOTAL SINGLE-FAMILY CONDOMINIUMS SINGLE-FAMILY/CONDOMINIUMS ZIP No. sold Median Median No. sold Median Median No. sold Median Median code ’05 ’06 Chng. ’05 ’06 ’05 ’06 Chng. ’05 ’06 ’05 ’06 ’05 ’06 92007 130 107 $860,000 $850,000 -1.2% 48 34 $470,000 $431,000 -8.3% 8 13 $1,107,000 $1,253,250 92008 215 172 $735,000 $725,000 -1.4% 115 85 $506,000 $520,000 2.8% 161 27 $506,000 $639,500 92009 535 392 $775,000 $770,000 -0.6% 399 280 $439,000 $420,000 -4.3% 749 554 $935,750 $916,000 92010 160 119 $659,500 $655,000 -0.7% 96 68 $420,000 $425,000 1.2% 114 95 $651,250 $487,000 92011 266 183 $836,000 $827,500 -1.0% 178 123 $625,000 $562,500 -10.0% 30 83 $890,000 $1,208,000 92130 475 399 $1,050,000 $1,028,000 -2.1% 361 226 $555,000 $535,000 -3.6% 526 619 $591,500 $681,000 92014 138 107 $1,500,000 $1,460,000 -2.7% 66 54 $705,000 $842,500 19.5% 9 16 $1,100,000 $1,045,500 92024 547 432 $840,000 $802,500 -4.5% 215 166 $506,750 $467,000 -7.8% 36 21 $1,132,750 $1,563,000 92054 597 443 $523,000 $540,000 3.3% 337 203 $360,000 $375,000 4.2% 130 195 $632,750 $391,000 92056 986 676 $506,500 $512,000 1.1% 138 83 $339,500 $335,000 -1.3% 108 66 $329,500 $342,750 92057 1010 653 $510,000 $510,000 0.0% 331 246 $315,000 $310,000 -1.6% 347 161 $290,000 $670,000 92075 87 87 $1,125,500 $1,200,000 6.6% 138 107 $700,000 $700,000 0.0% 12 11 $1,165,500 $1,149,000 5,146 3,770 $635,000 $640,000 0.8% 2,422 1,675 $444,000 $432,000 -2.7% 2,230 1,861 $750,000 $755,000 SINGLE-FAMILY Median Median ’05 ’06 $740,000 $560,000 $505,000 $630,000 $740,000 $630,000 $518,000 $425,000 $510,000 $510,000 $565,000 $735,000 $550,000 $500,000 $611,750 $742,500 $635,500 $487,000 $440,000 $520,000 $500,000 $557,500 Chng. 13.2% 26.4% -2.1% -25.2% 35.7% 15.1% -5.0% 38.0% -38.2% 4.0% 131.0% -1.4% 0.7% SINGLE-FAMILY/CONDOMINIUMS No. sold Median Median ’05 ’06 Chng. ’05 ’06 186 154 $770,000 $792,000 2.9% 491 284 $606,000 $656,000 8.3% 1,683 1,226 $767,000 $756,000 -1.4% 370 282 $595,000 $543,000 -8.7% 474 389 $760,000 $825,000 8.6% 1,362 1,244 $742,000 $766,000 3.2% 213 177 $1,237,000 $1,234,000 -0.2% 798 619 $763,000 $738,000 -3.3% 1,064 841 $485,000 $466,000 -3.9% 1,232 825 $472,000 $481,000 1.9% 1,688 1,060 $427,000 $488,000 14.3% 237 205 $880,000 $936,000 6.4% 9,798 7,306 $614,000 $622,000 1.3% South County Place ZIP code Bonita 91902 Chula Vista N 91910 Chula Vista S 91911 Chula Vista- 91913 E. Lake-Otay Ranch Chula Vista NE 91914 207 173 Chula Vista SE 91915 314 206 Imperial Beach 91932 124 100 National City 91950 294 204 Nestor 92154 576 406 90 San Ysidro 92173 133 3,596 2,601 TOTAL No. sold ’05 ’06 171 159 562 457 579 400 636 406 Chng. -0.7% -1.8% -1.0% -2.9% No. sold ’05 ’06 72 29 258 143 268 188 214 133 34 100 44 27 118 59 875 CONDOMINIUMS Median Median ’05 ’06 $360,000 $391,500 $350,000 $400,000 $438,000 $449,250 $443,500 $315,000 $355,000 $299,500 $378,000 $350,000 $375,000 $355,000 $386,500 $425,000 $463,750 $450,250 $345,000 $364,000 $297,500 $375,000 Chng. -2.8% -4.2% 1.4% -3.4% SINGLE-FAMILY/CONDOMINIUMS Median Median No. sold ’05 ’06 ’05 ’06 9 3 $461,500 $275,000 82 18 $479,250 $492,500 18 39 $256,000 $340,000 566 333 $637,500 $403,000 322 397 26 124 121 14 1,397 $802,250 $601,000 $303,500 $460,500 $420,500 $270,000 $586,500 $813,500 $511,250 $348,000 $530,000 $649,500 $260,000 $455,500 SINGLE-FAMILY/CONDOMINIUMS Median No. sold Median ’05 ’06 Chng. ’05 ’06 -40.4% 252 191 $621,000 $669,000 7.7% 2.8% 902 618 $504,000 $508,000 0.8% 32.8% 865 627 $452,000 $447,000 -1.1% -36.8% 1,416 872 $598,000 $498,000 -16.7% Chng. 1.4% -14.9% 14.7% 15.1% 54.5% -3.7% -22.3% 702 529 1,391 703 263 170 476 355 1,049 645 263 163 7,579 4,873 $748,000 $589,000 $443,000 $423,000 $457,000 $405,000 $535,000 $765,000 $541,000 $456,000 $464,000 $516,000 $406,000 $495,000 2.3% -8.1% 2.9% 9.7% 12.9% 0.2% -7.5% 0.3% 69 0.9% 169 -6.0% 73 3.5% 52 2.0% 205 -2.0% 119 -1.3% 1,499 -3.0% 426 3.2% 908 1.5% 66 9.5% 130 2.5% 268 -0.7% 11 -0.8% 2,484 Yearly median prices RESALE HOUSES $600 thousand $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 0 ’90 ’92 ’94 ’96 ’98 ’00 ’02 ’04 ’06 RESALE CONDOS NEW HOUSES AND CONDOS ALL HOUSES AND CONDOS $600 thousand $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 0 ’90 ’92 ’94 ’96 ’98 ’00 ’02 ’04 ’06 $554,000 ’05-’06 change: +0.9% $600 thousand $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 0 $390,000 ’05-’06 change: -0.5% $600 thousand $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 0 $444,000 ’05-’06 change: -6.7% $490,000 ’05-’06 change: -0.8% ’90 ’92 ’94 ’96 ’98 ’00 ’02 ’04 ’06 ’90 ’92 ’94 ’96 ’98 ’00 ’02 ’04 ’06 Yearly sales RESALE HOUSES 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 ’90 ’92 ’94 ’96 ’98 ’00 ’02 ’04 ’06 SOURCE: DataQuick Information Systems 21,760 ’05-’06 change: -22.9% RESALE CONDOS 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 8,881 ’05-’06 change: -29.8% NEW HOUSES AND CONDOS 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 11,481 ’05-’06 change: -20.8% ALL HOUSES AND CONDOS 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 ’90 ’92 ’94 ’96 ’98 ’00 ’02 ’04 ’06 UNION-TRIBUNE 42,122 ’05-’06 change: -23.9% ’90 ’92 ’94 ’96 ’98 ’00 ’02 ’04 ’06 ’90 ’92 ’94 ’96 ’98 ’00 ’02 ’04 ’06