ASPRS 10 Year Industry Forecast

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					ASPRS 10 Year Industry Forecast
   Phase IV Result Preview
           ASPRS 2006 Annual Conference
                    Reno, NV

Mr. Charles Mondello, Chair ASPRS 10 Year Forecast, Pictometry International
Dr. George Hepner, University of Utah
Dr. Ray Williamson, George Washington University
Phase IV of the ASPRS Ten Year Forecast
  Motivations for Phase IV
   – Define use and needs for specific requirements in geospatial
     information
   – Understand use of moderate resolution imagery
   – Develop workforce hiring needs and requirements
   – Capture opinion on the role of U.S. governmental policy in
     geospatial industry

  Utilize an internet survey of ASPRS membership as a surrogate for the
  broader user community
   – Membership of ASPRS is approximately 6000
   – Equal numbers from government, private sector and academia
     Forecast Phase IV Background
The Forecast survey was made online from August through
October of 2005

Phases I-IV focus on civilian users

Phase IV was more limited in data sources than
Phases I-III

The total number of completed responses to the internet
survey was 386, or 6% of the survey population (+/- 4.8
confidence interval at 95% )
      Topics of this Presentation

-Respondent Profile

-Workforce Issues

-Technical Concerns

-Moderate Resolution Issues

-Governmental Policy Issues
  Response
             Primary Employment Area




• The survey population is equally comprised from the three employment sectors
• This population shows a nominal gov’t bias possibly due to moderate res sector

 Q. 3) In which of the Following Sectors and Sub-Sectors do you work?
           Select Primary?
Response
                          Level of Education




           • In general, profile shows a significant number of advanced degrees—
           highly educated workforce


                 Q. 5) What is the Respondent’s Level of Education?
                           Skill Sets of the Respondents
  Response




•The industry has significant diversity in skill mix
•Other fields mentioned include:
 Biology,Surveying, Anthropology,Urban Planning, Environmental Policy and Mgmt, Atmospheric
 Science,Workforce Education, Landscape Architecture, Ecology, Music, Arts, Humanities, Other
 Engineering, Business Administration, Astronomy, Imaging Science, Fish / Wildlife Biology-ecology

             Q. 6) In what discipline is your degree / certificate?
  Current and Desired Workforce Education Levels
     Response




    • Current workforce has mainly undergraduate and master’s degrees
    • Hiring needs center on technical training, certificates and post graduate degrees

Q. 26) For your agency or firm’s needs which level of education is
appropriate for the majority of your workforce? Also identify your hiring
needs for the next 24 months.
              Needed Skills vs. Difficulty to Hire


              Response




• The educational community is still not providing sufficient graduates in many key areas

Q. 27) What are the knowledge and technical skills that are most
needed by your employees for the future? (Select 3)
            Primary Reasons for Job Dissatisfaction
           Response




      • This may indicate that the remote sensing industry does not provide the
      opportunity and compensation of other high technology markets

Q. 28) Our previous study indicated that many technical staff in agencies and firms leave
the remote sensing field within 5 years after initial employment. Can you suggest and rank
three reasons that this might be happening?
                       Remote Sensing Experience
                0.70

                0.60

                0.50
     Response




                0.40

                0.30

                0.20

                0.10

                0.00
                        <1 year   1-3 years   4-7 years   8-10 years   11 or more
                                                                         years



• Most respondents (58%) have 11 or more years of experience with remote sensing
• 32% have four or more years experience
• Previous studies showed greater new hire percentage (under 3 year)
Q. 8) How many years of remote sensing experience do you have?
           Remote Sensing Application Areas
                     30.00

                     25.00
          Response
                     20.00

                     15.00

                     10.00

                      5.00

                      0.00




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• Other areas cited include public health, law, flood studies, food security, search and rescue,
          history, cultural heritage
• Underserved areas are similar to past surveys; Online search may improve this

    Q. 9) In which of the following Application Areas do you or your group work?
     Commentary on Application Areas
Respondents reveal a wide range of applications for remotely sensed data
Three chief applications:
 – Environmental (24%)
 – General mapping (21%)
 – Civil government (12%)
Underserved areas:
 – Telecom
 – Real estate
 – Insurance
 – Business demographics
 – Entertainment
The underserved areas may be ones for future expansion if the cost-
effective, simplified applications can be developed
 Estimated Spending on Remotely Sensed Data/Information
             140

             120

             100
                                                                                            2003
              80                                                                            2005
                                                                                            2007
              60
                                                                                            2012
              40
  Response




              20

              0
                   Don't   Under   $1K-    $11K-    $26K-     $51K-    $101K-   Greater
                   Know     $1K    $10K    $25K     $50K      100K$    $500K     than
                                                                                $500K


     •In general, total purchases will decline annually (Opposite Phase I-III trends)
     •Uncertainty about estimated future purchases increases rapidly with time
     •Approx 18% of respondents in past forecasts “didn't know” how much was spent
     •Phases I-III suggested future growth of 9%-14%, this outlook shows a more
               pessimistic outlook

10) & 11) Estimate the dollars you expect to (spend / allocate / authorize) to purchase /
acquire remotely sensed data/information at work for the following years: (in thousands)
        Primary Sources of Funding for Data
                   0.50
                   0.45
                   0.40
                   0.35
                   0.30
                   0.25
                   0.20
        Response




                   0.15
                   0.10
                   0.05
                   0.00
                          Purchase/obtain from   Purchase from   Internal to your
                           government agency      commercial      organization
                                                    vendor



  • Most (44%) purchase/obtain data through a government agency
  • About 29% purchase data from a commercial vendor
  • As in earlier Phases, government remains the largest single primary customer
    for RS data

Q.12) How do you purchase/obtain the remotely sensed data/information that you
                        use to accomplish your job?
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                        50
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             100
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   150
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               250




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                                                                                 • Traditional metrics have not wavered from previous studies


                                                                                                                                                                                       M      ftw liab t
            characteristics of remotely sensed data or information?                                                                                                                      od are ility
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Q. 13) Based on your job requirements, how important are the following general
                                                                                 • Importance of radiometric accuracy probably due to mid resolution influence
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Desired Characteristics of Remotely Sensed Data
Importance of Data Characteristics Continued

The four most important data characteristics (cited by more
than 50% of respondents) are:
 – Fitness of the data for the task
 – Appropriate resolution
 – Area coverage
 – Color/spectral/radiometric quality
Mode of data delivery is the least important characteristic of
RS data
Resolution remains the most important characteristic beyond
overall data fitness
                        Resolution: Work With vs. Needed
           70%
                                                                                               Need
           60%                                                                                 Work With


           50%


           40%


           30%
Response




           20%


           10%


           0%
                 Less than   0.5-0.99    1-2      3-5      6-10     11-30   31-100   101-250     251 or
                    0.5      Meters     Meters   Meters   Meters   Meters   Meters   Meters       More
                  Meters                                                                         Meters


                                                                                                           Previous Phase I-III results

       • High resolution need closely tracks demand. This is of interest given the rise of digital aerial as well as
       the continued operation of satellite sensors. In past surveys demand was clearly not met in this region.
       Digital aerial has come to fruition with multiple vendors now offering solutions. 1m satellites are now
       online through multiple sources. <0.5 M data is now the area most likely to be targeted by vendors
       • Overcapacity appears to be seen at the more commonly historical resolution levels 1m & 10-15m
       • Differences in population and ranges exist with past surveys


             Q. 14) & 14a) What levels of Spatial Resolution do you currently WORK WITH today?
                           Do you NEED most to do your job? (check all that apply)
                 Geospatial Accuracy: Work With vs. Needed
           50%
                                                                                   Need
           45%
                                                                                   Work With
           40%

           35%
Response




           30%

           25%

           20%

           15%

           10%

           5%

           0%
                   <6       6-18    19-35   3-5 feet   6-15 feet 16-30 feet   31-100   >100 feet
                 inches   inches   inches                                      feet



                                                                                                       Previous Phase I-III results

       The industry overall needs high accuracy data
       Given the growth in automated AT, Lidar as well as direct geo-registration, much of the demand is being well supported
       New digital sensors are driving elevation data demand, which in turn causes growth in the positional accuracy segment
       GSDs of 6” and better causes users to focus on smaller and smaller targets, each requiring positional knowledge
       Differences in population and ranges exist with past surveys. The overall trend shape is similar to earlier surveys


Q15) & 15a) What levels of geo-location accuracy do you currently WORK WITH today? Do you NEED
                              most to do your job? (check all that apply)
                        Vertical Accuracy: Work With vs. Need
            40%
                                                                                              Need
            35%                                                                               Work With


            30%


            25%

            20%
Response




            15%

            10%

             5%

             0%
                  < 6 inches     6-18    19-35   3-5 feet   6-15 feet   16-30 feet   31-100    >100 feet
                               inches   inches                                        feet



                                                                                                           Previous Phase I-III results
     • Highest quality vertical accuracy still shows demand in excess of capacity
     • These slides track with geo-positional accuracy
           • Both sets showing the gap closure between supply and demand
     • Both also show the highest growth still at the tightest accuracies and data qualities
     • This is readily driven and supported by Lidar and automated elevation extraction
     • Differences in population and ranges exist with past surveys, however demand tracks between both
                 data sets and clearly decreases at courser quality levels

           16) & 16a) What levels of elevation (vertical) accuracy do you currently WORK WITH today?
           Do you NEED most to do your job?
                                    Image Types: Work With vs. Needed
            0.80



            0.70



            0.60
Response




            0.50



            0.40



            0.30
                                                                                                                            Previous Phase I-III results
            0.20



            0.10
                                                                                                                Need
                                                                                                                Work With

            0.00




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    • Film continues to track historical drops in use with previous surveys
    • In this forecast Lidar shows a better match in use versus need than previous studies. The industry has
      also seen a clear reduction in Lidar data prices, which further correlates to these results.
    • Digital sensors show the industry is now becoming saturated and price will become a driver as supply
      begins to outweigh demand.
    • Hyperspectral, as with previous studies, is still a growth opportunity (broad area coverage need)
    • Differences in population and ranges exist compared with past surveys, but the overall trend shapes are consistent

           Q. 17) & 17a) What image types do you currently WORK WITH today?
           Do you NEED most to do your job?
       Temporal Requirements: Use vs. Need
                       70%
                                                                                    Need
                                                                                    Work With
                       60%


                       50%


                       40%
            Response




                       30%


                       20%


                       10%


                       0%
                             Real    <24    1-3 days 4-6 days    1-3     1-3    4-12  >1 year
                             Time   Hours                       weeks   months months




• After 9/11/01, experts felt that increased frequency in imaging would become critical, as one
aggregates the data a break point appears to exist in the one month or greater revisit time. But clearly
the proposed market demand for real time data and those acquired in less than 24 hours delay has not
appeared. Reasonable price, capture and delivery windows appear to be common place, and in highest
demand.

 Q. 20) & 20a) What are your current data/information temporal
 (revisit) requirements? Do you NEED?
    Remote Sensing Data Used vs. Collection Platform
               60.00


               50.00


               40.00
    Response




               30.00


               20.00


               10.00


                0.00
                       satellites    aerial platforms      Other
                                                                           Previous Phase I-III results

• High resolution satellites have influenced the market in aerial versus space based collection. The
industry has established the capacity limits for 1m space based systems as seen by the recent events
• Of interest in this study is the “other” option in which an open ended question was offered
      • The terrestrial market is an obvious area of future study
      • Lidar, Unmanned Air Vehicles, Seismic sensors, Ground penetrating radar, Tripod
            mounted Lidar, Terrestrial cameras, Marine based sensors
• Differences in population and ranges exist compared with past surveys

22) What proportion of your remote sensing data/information is collected by
different platforms?
   User Preferences Regarding Data Preprocessing
                   160
                   140
                   120                                                        Unprocessed
                   100
                                                                              Application ready
                    80
                    60                                                        Certified to an industry
                    40                                                        standard
        Response




                    20
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   • Most data users prefer data that are application ready or certified to an industry
             standard, though many prefer starting with unprocessed data.


Q. 23) How important is it that the remote sensing data/information
you use has been: - Unprocessed? - Application ready? - Certified to an
industry standard?
     Effects of Controls on Data Access or Data Quality
                                          0.60


                                          0.50
      24a) Data licensing and/or          0.40
      sharing restrictions
                                          0.30
      • 50% cite negative effect
                                          0.20
      • 45% little or none
                                          0.10


                                          0.00
                                                 Negative effect   Little to no effect   Positive effect

                                          0.50
                                          0.45
      24b) Data ownership                 0.40

      and/or copyright                    0.35
                                          0.30

      restrictions                        0.25
                                          0.20
      • 47% cite negative effect          0.15
      • 45% little or none                0.10
                                          0.05
      • 6% positive                       0.00
                                                 Negative effect   Little to no effect   Positive effect


                                          0.60


      24c) Government restrictions        0.50


      on access to or quality of data     0.40

      • 45% cite negative effect          0.30
      • 49% little to none
                                          0.20
      • 6% positive
                                          0.10


                                          0.00
                                                 Negative effect   Little to no effect   Positive effect


Q. 24) What controls on the use of, or access to, data/information most affect your work?
Discussion: Controls on the use of, or access
            to, data/information
Controls negatively affect nearly half of the respondents:
 – Data licensing and/or sharing restrictions: 50%
 – Data ownership and/or copyright restrictions: 47%
 – Government restrictions on access to, or quality of, data:
   45%
Ownership and copyright restrictions have a positive
benefit for about 6% of respondents
Government restrictions on access to, or quality of, data
have positives benefits for about 6% of respondents
These responses indicate that market growth is hampered in
about ½ of the industry by controls in place. Over time, this
may threaten U.S. leadership in the RS industry.
Use of Moderate Resolution Data (10 -100 m)
            0.80

            0.70

            0.60

            0.50

            0.40

            0.30

            0.20

            0.10

            0.00
                            Yes                       No




       •  Significant demand (70%) among respondents
         for medium resolution data
       • This supports the view that medium resolution data
          often undergird the use of higher resolution data

Q. 25) Do you use moderate resolution (10 meter - 100 meter) satellite data?
     Criticality of Moderate Resolution Data
      0.45

      0.40
      0.35

      0.30

      0.25
      0.20

      0.15

      0.10

      0.05

      0.00
             Extremely   Very   Moderately Somewhat   Very Little   Not At All



•   Some 65% of respondents found moderate resolution data critical to
    their work

Q. 25a) How critical is moderate resolution (10 meter - 100 meter)
satellite data to your work?
25b) When you purchase moderate resolution satellite data,
  what is your source of funds? Rank the top three most
            important with (1) as highest rank
           140

           120
                                                                   #1
           100                                                     #2
                                                                   #3
           80
Response




           60

           40

           20

            0
                 Federal   Regional Academic   Foreign   Private    Other


 • Most respondents used federal funds to purchase moderate resolution data
 • Regional funds are the next most important source of funding
               25c) Do you use Landsat 7 data?
             0.80

             0.70

             0.60

             0.50

             0.40

             0.30

             0.20

             0.10

             0.00
                              Yes                           No



• Some 70% of respondents use Landsat 7 data in their work, which is generally
  consistent with the use of moderate resolution data
    Issue of Scan Line Corrector Failure in Landsat 7
                                  120

                                  100
                                                                                                                #1
                                   80                                                                           #2
                                                                                                                #3
                                   60
                      Response

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                                   20

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       • Most respondents who used a replacement source of data
         for Landsat 7 data employed Landsat 5 data products
Q. 25d) If the Scan Line Corrector problem has impacted your use of Landsat 7 data,
     have you been able to use a replacement source? Rank top three most important,
     with (1) as highest rank
    Sufficiency of Government Policy for Promoting
     Sales of RS Data from Commercial Satellites
                       70


                       60

                       50


                       40                                                        Government
                                                                                 Commercial
                       30                                                        Academic
            Response




                       20

                       10


                       0
                            Insufficient   Sufficient   Excessive   No opinion




•  Most respondents feel that government policy is sufficient,
  though some 30% opine that it is insufficient
• This suggests that some “tweaking” of government policy may be advisable

Q. 29) In your opinion is the government policy to promote the sale
       and use of remotely sensed data from commercial satellites,...?
  Government Promotion of Use of Aerial Data
               120

               100

               80
                                                            Yes
               60                                           No
    Response




                                                            No opinion
               40

               20

                0
                     Government   Commercial   Academic



          • Most respondents were supportive of the federal
            government developing enhanced policies to
            promote the use of aerial RS data.
30) Should the Federal Government develop enhanced policies
to promote the use of aerial remotely sensed data in the future?
             Effects of Overseas Technology Transfer Restrictions
             120

             100

              80
                                                                               Government
              60                                                               Commercial
  Response




                                                                               Academic
              40

              20

               0
                   not at all     assist          hinder        No opinion




     • Government technology transfer or export requirements have relatively little effect
       on most respondents but do continue to hinder overseas sales by some companies


Q. 31) How do government technology transfer or export requirements to foreign
       buyers affect your company's ability to conduct overseas sales?
www.asprs.org

george.hepner@geog.utah.edu

Charles Mondello charles.mondello@pictometry.com

"Ray A. Williamson (E-mail)" <rayw@gwu.edu>