Get documents about "PERVASIVE INTERNET SMART SERVICES MARKET FORECAST
Document Sample
PERVASIVE INTERNET & SMART
Report Overview SERVICES MARKET FORECAST
13
Month
Month
M
tno 11
1h Month
10
M
Month
tno
2h 9
Month
M 8
tno Month
3h
7
Month
M
tno 6
4h Month
5
M
Month
tno
5h 4
Month
3
M
tno
Month
6h
2
Month
1
M
tno Month
7h
M
tno
8h
M
tno
9h
01
oM
htn
11 M
o
htn
21 M
o
htn
31 M
o
htn
Harbor’s market analysis
and report on machine-
to-machine (M2M)
Machine-To-Machine (M2M) & Intelligent Device
and intelligent device Communications & Managed Services
networking covers Opportunities 2009-2013
the complete range
of wired and wireless
technologies across
all regions worldwide
within eight key market
venues. Our analysis
also covers higher level
network applications
and managed services
revenues enabled
by intelligent device
networking.
Harbor Research, Inc.
SAN FRANCISCO | ZURICH
Pervasive Internet & Smart Services Forecast
Report Overview
Overview
“Machine-to-Machine (M2M)”, “Ubiquitous Computing” and “Pervasive Internet” are
all terms that point to the advent of enabling technologies for networking products
and devices. Visionary product manufacturers and service companies are already using
embedded computing and networking technologies to deliver smart, remotely monitor-
able goods that will support entirely new modes of customer-interaction and service de-
livery. The resulting asset visibility and customer intimacy represent huge new revenue
opportunities across the entire life-cycle of products. The emergence of the Pervasive
Internet is unleashing an age of continuous “always-on” connectivity in which every con-
nected product turns its manufacturer into a new kind of service business we have named
“Smart Services.”
Intelligent Device Hierarchy Potential
Human
Centric
Mobile Phones, PDAs, 3.5 billion
Smart Phones, Mobile
Web Tablets, GPS…. Info
Appliances
Desktop PC’s, Servers, 1.2 billion
Switches, Storage… Static info
appliances
Vehicles, Cargo Containers,
Tankers, Trains, Off-Highway, 500 million
Supply Chain Assets… Mobile devices
Medical Device, HVAC, 425 million
Industrial Machinery,
Distributed Generation… Static devices
Embedded Controllers, Accelerometers, 1.75 billion
Temp/Pressure/Flow Sensors Meters,
Circuit Breakers, Gauges… Controllers & Smart sensors
Mixed Signal Platforms,
50 billion
Micro Processors/Controllers, Microprocessors & Microcontrollers
8 bit, 16 bit, 32 bit, 64 bit…… Device
Centric
Source: Harbor Research
Many observers believe this will drive the largest organic growth opportunity in the
history of business. What follows is an overview of our analysis of machine-to-machine
(M2M), intelligent device communications and managed services opportunities from
2009-2013. The report covers a comprehensive range of wireless and wired technologies
globally across eight key market venues. The research also forecasts network applica-
tions and managed services through 2013 as well as addressing the business models be-
ing deployed in the market.
2
Pervasive Internet & Smart Services Forecast
Report Overview
STUDY STRUCTURE & KEY QUESTIONS ADDRESSED
Harbor’s Pervasive Internet and Smart Services Market Forecast presents rigorous cover-
age of eight key market venues and related customer segments, application groups and
over 300 specific device and machine types central to M2M market development.
Our analysis and research addresses the following fundamental questions:
• What key forces are impacting adoption of M2M and conneted product solutions?
• What devices and applications are driving intelligent device networking?
• What are the business models manifest in each major vertical market and venue?
• What is the size and growth rate of the opportunity?
• What managed services opportunities are developing by vertical market?
• Which enabling technologies are gaining ground?
• How will software architecture and tools evolve over the next several years?
• Which technologies are being deployed by individual regions?
• What issues and hurdles are there in the market impacting adoption of Smart Ser-
vices?
FORECAST SCOPE & COVERAGE
This report provides an analysis and forecast that includes all intelligently networked
devices, covering both Fixed (Wireline) and Wireless technologies, including :
• Wireline: Industrial Ethernet
• Wireless LAN: Wi-Fi / WiMax
• Wireless WAN/Cellular: GSM/GPRS/EDGE, CDMA/EV-DO, 3G/4G, Satellite
• Wireless PAN: 6LoWPAN, Bluetooth, ZigBee (+ other 15.4), Ultra-Wideband, RFID
We believe that this holistic approach is now essential both for suppliers looking to maxi-
mize their returns in this market and for adopters/users to take account of the different
options available to them.
3
Pervasive Internet & Smart Services Forecast
Report Overview
Virtually any electric or electro-mechanical device has the capability of being monitored
and managed over the Internet. The eight market “Venues” represent the key areas where
Harbor Research believes M2M opportunities will develop in the coming years. Within
each venue, these devices are organized into application segments (e.g. ‘Hospitality’ with-
in the Retail Venue) and customer segments characterized by where they are used, what
function they carry out, and the types of customers that occupy each venue (e.g. ‘Hotels’
within Hospitality). Device segments, in turn, are then viewed within customer and ap-
plication segments (e.g. POS systems within the Retail Venue). Harbor Research’s Venue
Segmentation Map presents our organizing schema for analysis.
Intelligent Device
Networking
Buildings Industrial Healthcare Transportation Retail Energy Security IT & Networks
Commercial / Industrial Home Generation Distribution Alternative
Stores Hospitality Specialty
Institutional
• Office • Super-Markets
• Hotels • Fuel Stations
• Education • Process Plants • Residential • Malls • Fossil Fuel • Transmission Wind
• Restaurants • Gaming
• Retail • Single site • Nuclear • Distribution Solar
• Bars • Discos
• Hospitality • Factories • Multi-Family • Specialty • Hydroelectric & Sub-Stations Back-Up
• Cafes • Special events
• Healthcare • Services • Co-Generation Micro-Grid
• Airports / Stadiums • Warehouse • Mobile
• Campuses
Devices: POS Terminals, Tags, Cash Registers,
Devices: HVAC, Transport, Fire & Safety, Lighting, Security, Vending Machines, Signs, etc. Devices: Turbines, Windmills, Generators, Sub-Stations, PVC’s,
Access, Power, Equipment, etc. Back-Up Generators, UPS etc.
Care In Vivo/Home Research Trans On/Off Road Non- Supply Enterprise Services
Systems Vehicles Vehicular Chain
• Hospital Room
• ER • Data Centers
• Implants • Drug Develop • Tolls • Consumer • Vehicle Fleets Data Center
• Mobile POC • Air • Carriers
• Labs • Navigation • Commercial • Supply Chain
• Clinic • Rail Office • ISPs
• Home Monitoring • Diagnostics Infrastructure
• Labs • Traffic Mgmt • Construction • Marine
Systems • Rail Stock &
• Doctor Office • Off-Hiway Infrastructure
• Containers
Devices: MRI/Imaging, Surgical Equip, Lab Instruments, Devices: Servers, Storage, PCs Routers,
Patient Monitoring, Telemedicine, Beds, etc. Devices: Vehicles, Rail Systems, Ships, Planes, Signage, Tolls, Tracking
Sensors/Devices, Parking Meters etc. Switches, Imaging, etc.
Resource Fluid/Hybrid Converting/ Distribution/ Homeland Regional/Local National & Infrastructure &
Automation Discrete Security Emergency Regional Defense Transportation
Process Supply Chain
• Metals • Border
• Law Enforcement • Ground
• Mining • Petro-Chem • Paper Management • Airports
• Pipelines • Intelligence • Emergency • Sea
• Irrigation • Spec Chem • Rubber/Plastics • Ports
Gathering Healthcare • Air
• Metalworking • Mat’l Handling • Fire • Highways
• Agricultural • Food/Bev • National Law • Supply
• Electronics • Water Treatment
• Conveyance Enforcement • Pubic Venues Chain
• Woodland • Bio-Pharma • Assembly/Test • Command-Control
Devices: Pumps, Valves, Vessels/Tanks, Conveyors, Pipelines, Motors, Drives, Government Devices: GPS sensors, Radar Systems, Cameras, Biometrics, Environmental
Sensors, Machines, Tags, Containers, etc. Sensors, Military Equipment, Inspection Systems, etc.
Source: Harbor Research, Inc.
There is no one single industry upon which the Pervasive Internet and Smart Services
technology market is dependent. Instead the market will be fueled by a wide range of ap-
plications that require varied products, connectivity and support. Leading companies in
the service and manufacturing industries are looking at the Pervasive Internet and Smart
Services for near term adoption because of compelling economic and ROI potential.
Historically, much of the focus of players in M2M and Smart Services market develop-
ment has been on developing and lowering the cost of the technologies. Based on our analy-
4
Pervasive Internet & Smart Services Forecast
Report Overview
sis and forecasts, it is evident that the technologies for connected solutions are now maturing
and experiencing more robust and predictable growth.
We expect the opportunity to begin shifting away from simple enablement towards value
added managed services opportunities, including monitoring, data-analysis, and value-
added services. Based on all the knowledge gathered about supplier progress, technol-
Exhibit: Value-Added Application Services By Venue
$350,000
$300,000
$250,000 Security/Infrastructure
Healthcare
$200,000
Millions
IT/Networks
Transportation
$150,000 Retail
Buildings
$100,000 Energy
Industrial
$50,000
$0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Harbor Research, Inc.
Source: Harbor Research, Inc.
ogy, and customer adoption, there are several major trends which have wide-reaching
implications. We strongly believe these forces will deeply affect business strategy and cus-
tomer relationships in the near term. Some examples of trends driving this change:
• Technology improvements will continue to make it cheaper and easier to implement
connectivity solutions in everyday devices: communications options will increase, have
greater bandwidth, and be cheaper (free Internet access).
• Cross network integration (i.e. integration of connected device data across WAN, LAN,
PAN) will have a compounding impact on demand and the scale opportunities.
• During the next few years, end users will emerge as a force and place greater emphasis on
solutions that readily integrate with enterprise systems, innovative solution design and
more effective service and support.
• Demand for adaptability, agility and features will grow. Innovation in product and sys-
tems design will be heavily rewarded. Customers will creatively apply and integrate
technology in their work and personal lives to unimaginable levels.
• Customers will require a tailored experience from service providers, driving a movement
towards “a market segment of one.” Not only do customers expect suppliers to anticipate
their specific needs, they will want suppliers to project an experience for them.
5
Pervasive Internet & Smart Services Forecast
Report Overview
FORECAST METHODOLOGY
Harbor combines a comprehensive top-down and bottom-up approach to ensure the most
accurate forecast possible. The figure below outlines our methodology:
Exhibit: Forecast Model and Methodology
Device populations have been determined from government and industry statistics on out-
put and installed base across the wide range of devices monitored. Data for over 300 device
categories in Harbor’s eight key Venues have been researched in this way in order to cover
all areas where Harbor sees potential Pervasive Internet and Smart Services opportunities.
Networking penetration of these device populations has been assessed from Harbor’s own
estimates, based on input received from device suppliers and industry comparisons across
device segments. At the same time, device categories have also been assessed for the al-
ternative technologies that might be used to network connect them. This approach seeks
to minimize the potential for double counting of devices using different connection tech-
nologies. The results of these assessments have then been cross-checked against actual
connection module shipment data received from module suppliers, device suppliers and
some distributors.
6
Pervasive Internet & Smart Services Forecast
Report Overview
• Enablement revenue is derived from a combination of the connection module ship-
ments, their average selling price and the costs for Hardware, Software and Engineering.
• Network and Carrier Services Revenue is derived from the installed base of modules
actually connected rather than those shipped and the Average Revenue Per Device
(ARPD). In turn, ARPD has been determined for each application as a percentage of
Managed Services revenue applicable for each application.
• Managed Services revenue is derived by applying an average monthly service charge
factor to device populations, based on individual venue and customer segment consid-
erations derived from industry interviews.
Ultimately, we integrate our forecast and findings into our analysis of business models,
channels to market and customer buying behavior - both at the OEM stage of the value and
delivery chain as well as in the context of end customer segments.
This phenomenon The Pervasive Internet and Smart Services have far-reaching effects the
likes of which have never before been seen in business or our everyday lives. The Internet
versions 1.0 and 2.0 had broad implications on how people and businesses interact with
computers and other new information devices, but did not necessarily change every aspect of
our lives. Intelligent device networking represents version 3.0 of the Internet, and it will be
felt in everything that we touch and do. No matter who you are, what industry, or what job
function, this wave of change will be inescapable.
About Harbor Research
Harbor Research has more than twenty years of experience providing strategic consulting and research
services to product manufacturers, services organizations and core technology clients. Harbor’s
strategy and business development work is organized around emergent and disruptive opportunities,
with a unique focus on the impact of the Pervasive Internet—the use of the Internet to accomplish
global device networking that will revolutionize business by unleashing entirely new modes of system
optimization, customer relationships, and service delivery - what we call “Smart Services.” Harbor
Research has built extended relationships with larger multi-line companies including ABB, General
Electric, Danaher, Eaton, Emerson, Hewlett Packard, Honeywell, Siemens, and IBM as well as with a
broad array of emergent start-ups and pre-IPO technology ventures.
Contacts:
Jonathan Berman Mark Ritorto
Senior Analyst Senior Analyst
415.615.9400 X17 415.615.9400 X21
Harbor Research, Inc.
US - San Francisco: 415.615.9400
Europe - Zurich +41 435 000 15
Email: info@harborresearch.com
Website: www.harborresearch.com
7
Pervasive Internet & Smart Services Forecast
Report Overview
Overview of Study
Executive Summary
Summary of Key Findings
Chapter 1: Market Overview
1.1 Defining The Pervasive Internet and Smart Services
1.1.1 Scope of Research and Analysis
1.1.2 Smart Services Says It All
1.1.3 Defining The Business Benefits
1.2 Evolving Market Structure and Segmentation
1.2.1 Enablement Opportunities
1.2.2 Network and Carrier Services Oppottunities
1.2.3 System Appls vs. Value-Added Application Services
1.2.4 Value-Added Application Services
1.3 Market Forces and Trends
1.4 Leadership Challenges
Chapter 2: Technology Evolution
2.1 Technology Evolution
2.1.1 Wireless Technologies
2.1.1.1 Short Range Wireless Technologies
2.1.1.2 Medium Range Wireless Technologies
2.1.1.3 Wide Area Wireless Technologies
2.2.2 Software Architecture Evolution
2.2.2.1 The Web Is Not The Internet
2.2.2.2 The Web Consistts of Information Islands
2.2.2.3 Information Needs To Be Free
2.2.2.4 Embedded Internet Standards
2.2.2.5 Security
2.2.2.6 Collaboration
2.2 Technology Road Map
Chapter 3: Venue Opportunities
3.1 Defining Venues
3.1.1 Venue Segmentation
3.2 Venue Analysis
3.2.1 Energy/Power
3.2.1.1 Energy Venue Today
3.2.1.2 Market and Customer Opportunities
3.2.1.3 Adoption Progress and Dynamic
3.2.2 Buildings and Homes
3.2.2.1 Buildings/Homes Venue Today
3.2.2.2 Market and Customer Opportunities
3.2.2.3 Adoption Progress and Dynamics
3.2.3 Industrial
3.2.3.1 Industrial Venue Today
3.2.3.2 Market and Customer Opportunities
3.2.3.3 Adoption Progress and Dynamics
3.2.4 Healthcare
3.2.4.1 Healthcare Venue Today
3.2.4.2 Market and Customer Opportunities
3.2.4.3 Adoption Progress and Dynamics
8
Pervasive Internet & Smart Services Forecast
Report Overview
3.2.5 Retail
3.2.5.1 Retail Venue Today
3.2.5.2 Market and Customer Opportunities
3.2.5.3 Adoption Progress and Dynamics
3.2.6 Physical Security/Infrastructure
3.2.6.1 Security Venue Today
3.2.6.2 Market and Customer Opportunities
3.2.6.3 Adoption Progress and Dynamics
3.2.7 Transportation
3.2.7.1 Transportation Venue Today
3.2.7.2 Market and Customer Opportunities
3.2.7.3 Adoption Progress and Dynamics
3.2.8 IT and Network Infrastructure
3.2.8.1 IT and Networks Venue Today
3.2.8.2 Market and Customer Opportunities
3.2.8.3 Adoption Progress and Dynamic
Chapter 4: Application Opportunities
4.1 System Applications
4.1.1 System Applications Defined
4.2 Value-Added Applications and Services
4.2..1 Asset Health and Management
4.2.2 Supply Chain Tracking and Integration
4.2.3 Energy Intelligence and Management
4.2.4 Customer Support
4.2.5 Security Management
4.3 Impact of Connected Product Analytics
Chapter 5: World Intelligent Device Networking Market Forecasts 2009-2013
5.1 Harbor Forecast Methodology
5.1.1 Customer Segments versus Applications versus Technologies
5.2 Enablement Opportunity: Device Shipments and Revenue
5.2.1 Wireless WAN
5.2.2 Wireless LAN
5.2.3 Wireless PAN
5.2.4 Wireline
5.3 Network & Carrier Services Revenue
5.4 Managed Services Potential
5.4.1 System Applications Revenue
5.4.2 Value-Added Services Revenue (Smart Services)
5.5 Venue-based Revenue
5.5.1 Buildings & Homes
5.5.2 Energy/Power
5.5.3 Industrial
5.5.4 Medical/Healthcare
5.5.5 Retail
5.5.6 Security/Infrastructure
5.5.7 Transportation
5.5.8 IT and Network Infrastructure
9
Pervasive Internet & Smart Services Forecast
Report Overview
Chapter 6: Evolving Business Models For Smart Services
6.1 The Advent of Smart Services
6.1.1 Services at the Center
6.2 Smart Services Business Oportunities
6.2.1 Two Families of Opportunities
6.2.2 Impact of Product Life Cycle Economics
6.2.3 “Peripheral Vision” Analyzing Adjacencies
6.2.4 Stepping Back - Looking At The Whole Opportunity
6.2.5 Solo and Team Opportunities
6.3 Smart Services Business Models
6.3.1 Two Solo Opportunity Models
6.3.2 Team Opportunities Make Two Aggregation Models
6.4 Revenue Models
6.4.1 Product-Based Revenue Models - Sell The Product Alone
6.4.2 Service-Based Revenue Models: Product Unbound
6.4.2.1 Pay Per Usage/Period
6.4.2.2 Performance-Tied Model
6.4.2.3 Incentives and Rebates Model
6.4.2.4 Volume Discount Model
6.4.2.5 Discount Model
6.4.3 Service-based Revenue Models: Unbound
6.4.3.1 Sale of Data Model
6.4.3.2 Switchboard Model
6.4.3.3 Gateway Model
6.4.4 Solution-based Revenue Models
6.4.4.1 Product Life Cycle Model
6.4.4.2 Outsource Model
6.4.4.3 Insource Model
6.5 Case Examples
6.5.1 Specialty Chemical Supply Chain
6.5.2 Residential Home Owner Awareness
6.5.3 Commercial Equipment
6.5.4 Vehicle Telematics
6.5.5 Food and Beverage Vending
6.5.6 Neighborhood Security
6.6 The Ascending Scale of Business Cases
Chapter 7: Opportunities, Obstacles and Conclusions
7.1 Killer Apps and Growth Opportunities
7.2 Impact of Evolving Go-To-Market Systems
7.3 Barriers to Growth
7.4 Critical Success Factors for Market Players
7.5 Perspective and Market Outlook
Appendices
Supplier Profiles
Adopter Cases
10
Pervasive Internet & Smart Services Forecast
Report Overview
EXHIBITS
- Total Devices Shipped by Technology: Worldwide - WPAN Devices Revenue by Venue: Worldwide
- Total Devices Shipped by Region: Worldwide - WPAN Devices Shipped by Venue: N. America
- Total Device Revenue by Technology: Worldwide - WPAN Devices Revenue by Venue: N. America
- Total Device Revenue by Region: Worldwide - WPAN Devices Shipped by Venue: W. Europe
- Total Devices Shipped by Venue: Worldwide - WPAN Devices Revenue by Venue: W. Europe
- Total Device Revenue by Venue: Worldwide - WPAN Devices Shipped by Venue: AsiaPac
- Wireline Devices Shipped by Venue: Worldwide - WPAN Devices Revenue by Venue: AsiaPac
- Wireline Devices Revenue by Venue: Worldwide - WPAN Devices Shipped by Venue: ROW
- Wireline Devices Shipped by Venue: N. America - WPAN Devices Revenue by Venue: ROW
- Wireline Devices Revenue by Venue: N. America - Network Services Revenue by Venue: Worldwide
- Wireline Devices Shipped by Venue: W. Europe - Network Services Revenue by Venue: N. America
- Wireline Devices Revenue by Venue: W. Europe - Network Services Revenue by Venue: W. Europe
- Wireline Devices Shipped by Venue: AsiaPac - Network Services Revenue by Venue: AsiaPac
- Wireline Devices Revenue by Venue: AsiaPac - Network Services Revenue by Venue: ROW
- Wireline Devices Shipped by Venue: ROW - Managed Services Revenue by Venue: Worldwide
- Wireline Devices Revenue by Venue: ROW - Managed Services Revenue by Venue: N. America
- WWAN Devices Shipped by Type: Worldwide - Managed Services Revenue by Venue: W. Europe
- WWAN Devices Revenue by Type: Worldwide - Managed Services Revenue by Venue: AsiaPac
- WWAN Devices Shipped by Venue: Worldwide - Managed Services Revenue by Venue: ROW
- WWAN Devices Revenue by Venue: Worldwide - Revenue Streams: Worldwide
- WWAN Devices Shipped by Venue: N. America - Comparison of Service Elements
- WWAN Devices Revenue by Venue: N. America - Enablement Revenue Streams: Worldwide
- WWAN Devices Shipped by Venue: W. Europe - Network Services Revenues: Worldwide
- WWAN Devices Revenue by Venue: W. Europe - System Applications Revenues: Worldwide
- WWAN Devices Shipped by Venue: AsiaPac - Value-Added Services Revenue: Worldwide
- WWAN Devices Revenue by Venue: AsiaPac - Revenue Streams Rev Industrial: Worldwide
- WWAN Devices Shipped by Venue: ROW - Value-Added Services for Industrial: Worldwide
- WWAN Devices Revenue by Venue: ROW - Revenue Streams for Energy: Worldwide
- WLAN Devices Shipped by Venue: Worldwide - Value-Added Services Rev Energy: Worldwide
- WLAN Devices Revenue by Venue: Worldwide - Revenue Streams for Buildings: Worldwide
- WLAN Devices Shipped by Venue: N. America - Value-Added Services Rev Buildings: Worldwide
- WLAN Devices Revenue by Venue: N. America - Revenue Streams for Retail: Worldwide
- WLAN Devices Shipped by Venue: W. Europe - Value-Added Services Rev Retail: Worldwide
- WLAN Devices Revenue by Venue: W. Europe - Revenue Streams for Transportation: Worldwide
- WLAN Devices Shipped by Venue: AsiaPac - Value-Added Services Rev Transport: Worldwide
- WLAN Devices Revenue by Venue: AsiaPac - Revenue Streams for Medical: Worldwide
- WLAN Devices Shipped by Venue: ROW - Value-Added Services Rev Medical: Worldwide
- WLAN Devices Revenue by Venue: ROW - Revenue Streams Security: Worldwide
- WPAN Devices Shipped by Type: Worldwide - Value-Added Services Rev Security: Worldwide
- WPAN Devices Revenue by Type: Worldwide - Revenue Streams for IT/Nets : Worldwide
- WPAN Devices Shipped by Venue: Worldwide - Value-Added Services Rev IT/Nets: Worldwide
11
