DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
INDICATOR DICTIONARY
Forecast Module
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CONTENTS
Page FORECAST INDICATORS Land-Use F100 F101 Housing F200 F201 F202 F203 F204 F205 F206 F207 F208 F209 F210 Employment F300 F301 F302 F303 F304 Environment F400 F401 F402 F403 F404 Infrastructure F500 F501 F502 Residential wastewater production Nonresidential wastewater production Public sewer service 245 246 247 Imperviousness Stormwater runoff Total suspended solid nonpoint pollutants Phosphate nonpoint pollutants Nitrogen nonpoint pollutants 237 238 239 241 243 Employment density Employment transit proximity Jobs/housing balance Incentive area use for employment Remaining employment capacity 232 233 234 235 236 Population density Development footprint Housing density Housing transit proximity Housing bicycle route proximity Housing recreation proximity Housing education proximity Housing key activity/amenity proximity Housing employment proximity Residential water use Energy use Incentive area use for housing Remaining housing capacity 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231
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CONTENTS Continued
Page Transportation F600 F600 F601 F601 F602 F602 F603 F603 F604 F605 F606 F606 F607 F608a F608b F609 F609 F610 F610 F611 F611 F612a F612b F613a F613b F614 F615 F616 F617 F618 F619 F620 F621 F622 F623 F624 F625 F625 Developable land accessibility – DSS Developable land accessibility – ITM Non-developable land accessibility – DSS Non-developable land accessibility – ITM Developable land attractiveness – DSS Developable land attractiveness – ITM Non-developable land attractiveness – DSS Non-developable land attractiveness – ITM Street network density – DSS Street network extent – DSS Person trips – DSS Person trips – ITM Person hours of travel – ITM Personal travel direct cost – DSS Personal travel direct cost – ITM Personal travel social cost – DSS Personal travel social cost – ITM Vehicle trips – DSS Vehicle trips – ITM Vehicle miles traveled – DSS Vehicle miles traveled – ITM Arterial vehicle hours traveled – DSS Freeway vehicle hours traveled – DSS Arterial vehicle hours delay – DSS Freeway vehicle hours delay– DSS Single-occupant vehicle mode share – DSS Auto passenger mode share – DSS Bus transit mode share – ITM Rail transit mode share – ITM All transit mode share – DSS Walk/bike mode share – DSS Corridor vehicle travel time – ITM Roadway volume – ITM Roadway level of service – ITM Roadway/volume capacity ratio – ITM Congested vehicle miles traveled – ITM Average auto trip length – DSS Average auto trip length– ITM 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286
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CONTENTS Continued
Page Transportation Continued F626 F627 F627 F628 Multi-modal access – DSS Auto energy use – DSS Auto energy use – ITM Transit energy use – ITM 287 288 289 290
Air Quality and Climate Change F700 F700 F701 F701 F702 F702 F703 F703 F704 F704 F705 F705 Appendix A. B. C. Accessibility and Attractiveness Calculations Transportation Submodel ITM Interface 303 307 325 Carbon monoxide emissions – DSS Carbon monoxide emissions – ITM Hydrocarbon emissions – DSS Hydrocarbon emissions – ITM Oxides of sulphur emissions – DSS Oxides of sulphur emissions – ITM Particulate matter emissions – DSS Particulate matter emissions – ITM Oxides of nitrogen emissions – DSS Oxides of nitrogen emissions – ITM Carbon dioxide emissions – DSS Carbon dioxide emissions – ITM 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300 301 302
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Indicator:
F100. Population density
Definition and Units:
Persons/acres in total sketch area including residents and employees.
Formula:
∑ Employees + ∑ DU * ppHH
SketchAreaBoundary
DU = dwelling unit count ppHH = persons per household
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 0.65 to 0.93.
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Indicator:
F101. Development footprint
Definition and Units:
Total developed residential and nonresidential gross acres divided by total number of residents.
Formula:
∑ DevRes + ∑ DevNonRes ∑ DU * ppHH
i
i
DevResi = developed residential acres in cell i : Areai *
DU i MaxDU i EmpCounti MaxEmpCounti
DevNonResi = developed non - residential acres in cell i : Areai * DU = dwelling unit count ppHH = persons per household
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 0.84 to 1.19.
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Indicator:
F200. Housing density
Definition and Units:
DU/gross acre.
Formula:
∑ DU ∑A
i
res
DU i = dwelling units in cell i Ares = residential area (acres) of cell i
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 0.26 to 0.38.
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Indicator:
F201. Housing transit proximity
Definition and Units:
% of DU within 1/4 mi. of transit route.
Formula:
∑D ∑D
i j
Di = number of dwelling units in cell i, cells with centroid in 1/4 mi. buffer of any Transit Route line segment with Year ≤ GrowthYear D j = number of dwelling units in cell j, all cells
Shapefiles/Attributes:
Transit routes (line) / Year (4-digit year)
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 50-60%.
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Indicator:
F202. Housing bicycle route proximity
Definition and Units:
% of DU within 1/4 mi. of bike route.
Formula:
∑D ∑D
i j
Di = number of dwelling units in cell i, cells with centroid in 1/4 mi. buffer of any Bicycle Route line segment with Year ≤ GrowthYear D j = number of dwelling units in cell j, all cells
Shapefiles/Attributes:
Bike routes (line) / Year (4-digit year)
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 50-60%.
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Indicator:
F203. Housing recreation proximity
Definition and Units:
% of DU within 1/4 mi. of parks and schools.
Formula:
∑D ∑D
i j
Di = number of dwelling units in cell i, cells with centroid in 1/4 mi. buffer of any ParksSchools features with Year ≤ GrowthYear D j = number of dwelling units in cell j, all cells
Shapefiles/Attributes:
Parks schools (polygon) / Year (4-digit year)
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 70-75%.
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Indicator:
F204. Housing education proximity
Definition and Units:
% of DU within 1/4 mi. of schools and/or day care.
Formula:
∑D ∑D
i j
Di = number of dwelling units in cell i, cells with centroid in 1/4 mi. buffer of any SchoolsDaycare point with Year ≤ GrowthYear D j = number of dwelling units in cell j, all cells
Shapefiles/Attributes:
Schools daycare (point) / Year (4-digit year)
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 50-60%.
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Indicator:
F205. Housing key activity/amenity proximity
Definition and Units:
% of DU within 1/4 mi. of key service/amenity.
Formula:
∑D ∑D
i j
Di = number of dwelling units in cell i, cells with centroid in 1/4 mi. buffer of any KeyServiceAmenity point with Year ≤ GrowthYear D j = number of dwelling units in cell j, all cells
Shapefiles/Attributes:
Key service/amenity (point) / Year (4-digit year)
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 50-60%.
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Indicator:
F206. Housing employment proximity
Definition and Units:
% of DU within 1/4 mi. of areas meeting user-defined emp/ac threshold.
Formula:
∑D ∑D
i j
Di = number of dwelling units in cell i, cells with centroid in 1/4 mi. buffer of any 5 cells at or above user - set thresh old for the current growth year D j = number of dwelling units in cell j, all cells
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation Employee/acre threshold
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 50-60%.
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Indicator:
F207. Residential Water Use
Definition and Units:
Internal and external residential water use in gal/day/capita.
Formula:
0.85* Grass % + 0.5 * GrndCov % + 0.2 * Shrub% ∑ Apervious * VFactor * 0.623 * + HHIWU 100 365 * ∑ DU i * ppHH
Grass% = % Typical Landscaping - Grass GrndCov% = % Typical Landscaping - Groundcover GrndCov% = % Typical Landscaping - Shrubs and Trees APervi = pervious area on cell i DU i = dwelling unit count for cell i ppHH = persons per household VFactor = V Factor from Water Requirement Region HHIWU = Household Internal Water Use
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation Household Internal Water Use % Typical Landscaping - Grass % Typical Landscaping - Groundcover % Typical Landscaping - Shrubs and Trees V Factor from Water Requirement Region
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 200-400.
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Indicator:
F208. Energy use
Definition and Units:
MMBtu/yr/capita for housing and travel.
Formula:
Eauto + Edu Eauto = Edu = VMTcapita − day MPGlightvehicle
p p
* (0.1154 MMBtu/gal )* 365 days/year
∑ (E * D ) ∑ DU * ppHH
QOOOOOO if OOOOOO U ` p ≤13 QOUO` BaseEnergy
QOO ρUOOO O>20 ` E p = BaseEnergy * 0.86
13< 20 QOOOOOO ρ ≤OOOOOO U ` BaseEnergy * (1 − ((2 * ρ − 26 )/ 100 ))
ρ = maximum number of dwelling in cell p / residential area in cell p D p = number of dwelling units in cell p
E p = density based energy coefficient for cell p DU = dwelling unit count ppHH = persons per household
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation Base energy usage(0-13dwelling units/acre) – MMBtu/DU/yr MPGlightvehicle
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 90-100.
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Indicator:
F209. Incentive area use for housing
Definition and Units:
% of incentive area DU capacity utilized in user-designated incentive areas.
Formula:
∑D ∑D
i j
Di = number of dwelling units in cell i, cells with centroid in an incentive area D j = maximum number of dwelling units in cell j, cells with centroid in an incentive area
Shapefiles/Attributes:
Incentive area (polygon)
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation Incentive Setting
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters.
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Indicator:
F210. Remaining housing capacity
Definition and Units:
Total DU allowable within remaining developable residentialdesignated lands.
Formula:
∑ ( DMax − DU )
i i
DMaxi = maximum number of dwelling units in cell i DU i = number of dwelling units in cell i
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 30,000-60,000.
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Indicator:
F300. Employment density
Definition and Units:
Employees/gross acre.
Formula:
Empi = Emp Count in cell i Ares = area (acres) of cell i
∑ Emp ∑A
i
i
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 5.6-8.2.
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Indicator:
F301. Employment transit proximity
Definition and Units:
% of employees within 1/4 mi. of transit route.
Formula:
∑ Emp ∑ Emp
i j
Empi = number of employees in cell i, cells with centroid within 1/4 mi. buffer of any transit route segment with Year ≤ GrowthYear Emp j = number of employees in cell j, all cells
Shapefiles/Attributes:
Transit routes (line) / Year (4-digit year)
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 70-80.
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Indicator:
F302. Jobs/housing balance
Definition and Units:
Ratio of total employment to total DU.
Formula:
∑ Emp ∑D
i
i
Empi = Employees in cell i Di = Dwelling units in cell i
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 1.06-1.07.
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Indicator:
F303. Incentive area use for employment
Definition and Units:
% of incentive area employment capacity utilized in user-designated incentive areas.
Formula:
∑ Emp ∑ Emp
i j
Empi = number of employees in cell i, cells with centroid in an incentive area Emp j = maximum number of employees in cell j, cells with centroid in an incentive area
Shapefiles/Attributes:
Incentive area (polygon)
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters.
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Indicator:
F304. Remaining employment capacity
Definition and Units:
Total employment allowable within remaining developable nonresidential-designated lands.
Formula:
∑ ( EmpMax
i
− Empi )
EmpMaxi = maximum number of employess in cell i Empi = number of employees in cell i
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 520,000-560,000.
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Indicator:
F400. Imperviousness
Definition and Units:
% of total sketch area with impervious surface.
Formula:
∑ (I )
i 1
i
i
Overall Imperviousness Score =
Emp Count DU count * ResAcres * DLIres + NonResAcres * DLInonres * Emp Max DU max Area of Cell Where : i = Total number of cells in sketch area s = Total number of street segments intersecting with cell i n = Total number of planned land - use polygons intersecting with cell i Ai = Area of cell i DU i = DU count (SF, MF, Either) for cell i from Growth Allocation EmpCount i = Count of Employees (Retail, Service, Other) for cell i from Growth Allocation MaxDU i = Maximum Allowable DUs for cell i from Growth Allocation MaxEmpCounti = Maximum Allowable Emps for cell i from Growth Allocation An = Total Area of planned land - use polygon n DLI % n = % Developed Land (by land - use class for planned land - use polygon n) that is impervious
Shapefiles/Attributes:
Planned land-use (polygon) / land-use class (string) Street centerlines (line) / StreetWidth (integer) Grid
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation % Developed Land Impervious by planned land-use class
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 20-30%.
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Indicator:
F401. Stormwater runoff
Definition and Units:
Total sketch area runoff in cubic ft./yr.
Formula:
StormwaterRunoff MDB requires, for each cell in the sketch area grid, the following properties: Cell Imperviousness (Ii from Impervious Indicator F400 above) Total Cell Area overlaying Soil polygons with HydrologicGroup="A" Total Cell Area overlaying Soil polygons with HydrologicGroup="B" Total Cell Area overlaying Soil polygons with HydrologicGroup="C" Total Cell Area overlaying Soil polygons with HydrologicGroup="D" See StormwaterRunoff MDB methodology for actual indicator calc
Shapefiles/Attributes:
Soil (polygon) / hydrologic group (string) Planned land-use (polygon) / land-use class (string)
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation Annual precipitation file Rainfall.csv Imperviousness for each cell in grid (Ii from Impervious Indicator F400 above)
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters.
Note:
Rainfall.CSV file must be a comma-separated text file containing only 2 fields/row: Date, Rainfall (in inches). Rainfall.CSV must contain at least one row for every day of the year (365 rows)
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Indicator:
F402. Total suspended solid (TSS) nonpoint source pollutants
Definition and Units:
Total sketch area TSS in runoff in Kg/yr.
Formula:
StormwaterRunoff MDB requires, for each cell in the sketch area grid, the following properties: Cell Imperviousness (Ii from Impervious Indicator F400 above) Total Cell Area overlaying Soil polygons with HydrologicGroup="A" Total Cell Area overlaying Soil polygons with HydrologicGroup="B" Total Cell Area overlaying Soil polygons with HydrologicGroup="C" Total Cell Area overlaying Soil polygons with HydrologicGroup="D" Cell-level TSS Pollutant Runoff, calculated the following way:
∑ (A * TSS )
n n 1
n
∑A
1
n
n
n = Total number of planned land - use polygons intersecting with cell i An = Total intersecting area of planned land - use polygon n and cell i TSS n = EMC TSS pollutant coefficient for planned land - use polygon n, by land - use class
See StormwaterRunoff MDB methodology for actual indicator calc
Shapefiles/Attributes:
Soil (polygon) / hydrologic group (string) Planned land-use (polygon) / land-use class (string)
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation Annual precipitation file Rainfall.csv Imperviousness for each cell in grid (Ii from Impervious Indicator F400 above) EMC Pollutant Runoff: TSS (mg/L) by planned land-use class
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Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters.
Note:
Rainfall.CSV file must be a comma-separated text file containing only 2 fields/row: Date, Rainfall (in inches). Rainfall.CSV must contain at least one row for every day of the year (365 rows)
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Indicator:
F403. Phosphate nonpoint source pollutants.
Definition and Units:
Total sketch area phosphate in runoff in Kg/yr.
Formula:
StormwaterRunoff MDB requires, for each cell in the sketch area grid, the following properties: Cell Imperviousness (Ii from Impervious Indicator F400 above) Total Cell Area overlaying Soil polygons with HydrologicGroup="A" Total Cell Area overlaying Soil polygons with HydrologicGroup="B" Total Cell Area overlaying Soil polygons with HydrologicGroup="C" Total Cell Area overlaying Soil polygons with HydrologicGroup="D" Cell-level TSS Pollutant Runoff, calculated the following way:
∑ (A * Phosphate )
n n
n
1
∑A
1
n
n
n = Total number of planned land - use polygons intersecting with cell i An = Total intersecting area of planned land - use polygon n and cell i Phosphaten = EMC Phosphate pollutant coefficient for planned land - use polygon n, by land - use class
See StormwaterRunoff MDB methodology for actual indicator calc
Shapefiles/Attributes:
Soil (polygon) / hydrologic group (string) Planned land-use (polygon) / land-use class (string)
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation Annual precipitation file Rainfall.csv Imperviousness for each cell in grid (Ii from Impervious Indicator F400 above) EMC Pollutant Runoff: Phospate (mg/L) by planned land-use class
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Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters.
Note:
Rainfall.CSV file must be a comma-separated text file containing only 2 fields/row: Date, Rainfall (in inches). Rainfall.CSV must contain at least one row for every day of the year (365 rows)
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Indicator:
F404. Nitrogen nonpoint source pollutants
Definition and Units:
Total sketch area nitrogen in runoff in Kg/yr.
Formula:
StormwaterRunoff MDB requires, for each cell in the sketch area grid, the following properties: Cell Imperviousness (Ii from Impervious Indicator F400 above) Total Cell Area overlaying Soil polygons with HydrologicGroup="A" Total Cell Area overlaying Soil polygons with HydrologicGroup="B" Total Cell Area overlaying Soil polygons with HydrologicGroup="C" Total Cell Area overlaying Soil polygons with HydrologicGroup="D" Cell-level TSS Pollutant Runoff, calculated the following way:
∑ (A * Nitrogen )
n n 1
n
∑A
1
n
n
n = Total number of planned land - use polygons intersecting with cell i An = Total intersecting area of planned land - use polygon n and cell i Nitrogenn = EMC Nitrogen pollutant coefficient for planned land - use polygon n, by land - use class
See StormwaterRunoff MDB methodology for actual indicator calc
Shapefiles/Attributes:
Soil (polygon) / hydrologic group (string) Planned land-use (polygon) / land-use class (string)
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation Annual precipitation file Rainfall.csv Imperviousness for each cell in grid (Ii from Impervious Indicator F400 above) EMC Pollutant Runoff: Nitrogen (mg/L) by planned land-use class
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Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters.
Note:
Rainfall.CSV file must be a comma-separated text file containing only 2 fields/row: Date, Rainfall (in inches). Rainfall.CSV must contain at least one row for every day of the year (365 rows)
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Indicator:
F500. Residential wastewater production
Definition and Units:
Total sketch area wastewater production from residential uses in gallons/day.
Formula:
∑ DU
sf
* wppHH sf + ∑ DU mf * wppHH mf
DU = dwelling units wppHH = wastewater production per household
Subscripts : sf = single family mf = mobile home
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation Single family wastewater production (gals/day/DU) Multi-family wastewater production (gals/day/DU)
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 13-18 million gallons/day.
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Indicator:
F501. Nonresidential wastewater production
Definition and Units:
Total sketch area nonresidential wastewater production in gallons/day.
Formula:
∑ Employees * wppWORKER
Employees = total number of employment points in study area wppWORKER = wastewater production per employee
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation Employee wastewater production (gals/day/worker)
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 19-27 million gallon/day.
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Indicator:
F502. Public sewer service
Definition and Units:
% of DU within public sewer service areas.
Formula:
∑D ∑D
i j
Di = number of dwelling units in cell i, cells with centroid in service area polygon with Year ≤ GrowthYear D j = number of dwelling units in cell j, all cells
Shapefiles/Attributes:
Sewer Infrastructure (polygon) / year in service (4-digit year).
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation.
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 65-67%.
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Indicator:
F600. Developable land accessibility – DSS
Definition and Units:
For each residential cell, its relative proximity to all employment cells compared within the work-trip proximity for all other residential cells; for each retail cell, its relative proximity to all shopping-trip generators compared with the shopping-trip proximity for all other retail cells; for each employment cell other than retail, its relative proximity to all other non-residential cells compared with the non home-based trip proximity for all other non-retail employment cells.
Formula:
See Appendix A.
Shapefiles/Attributes:
Constraints (polygon)
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation
Scores:
Map only.
Notes:
Developable Lands are defined as cells whose centroids are NOT within a supplied Constraint polygon 4 indicators produced for each cell in sketch area grid: Single Family Dwelling Accessibility Multi-Family Dwelling Accessibility Retail Employment Accessibility Service/Other Employment Accessibility
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Indicator:
F600. Developable land accessibility– ITM
Definition and Units:
For each residential cell, its relative proximity to all employment cells compared within the work-trip proximity for all other residential cells; for each retail cell, its relative proximity to all shopping-trip generators compared with the shopping-trip proximity for all other retail cells; for each employment cell other than retail, its relative proximity to all other non-residential cells compared with the non home-based trip proximity for all other non-retail employment cells.
Formula:
See Appendix A.
Shapefiles/Attributes:
Constraints (polygon)
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation
Scores:
Map only.
Note:
Developable Lands are defined as cells whose centroids are NOT within a supplied Constraint polygon
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October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F601. Non-developable land accessibility – DSS
Definition and Units:
Same calculation as developable accessibility but applied to nondevelopable lands.
Formula:
See indicator F600 – DSS.
Shapefiles/Attributes:
Constraints (polygon)
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation
Scores:
Map only.
Note:
Non-Developable Lands are defined as cells whose centroids are within a supplied Constraint polygon 4 indicators produced for each cell in sketch area grid: Single Family Dwelling Accessibility Multi-Family Dwelling Accessibility Retail Employment Accessibility Service/Other Employment Accessibility
707/904
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October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F601. Non-developable land accessibility – ITM
Definition and Units:
Same calculation as developable accessibility but applied to nondevelopable lands.
Formula:
See indicator F600 – ITM.
Shapefiles/Attributes:
Constraints (polygon)
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation
Scores:
Map only.
Note:
Non-Developable Lands are defined as cells whose centroids are within a supplied Constraint polygon
707/904
251
October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F602. Developable land attractiveness – DSS
Definition and Units:
Travel accessibility score modified with presence/absence ratings for infrastructure and incentive coverages.
Formula:
See indicator F600 – DSS.
Shapefiles/Attributes:
Constraints (polygon) Incentives (polygon) / Weighting (numeric) Infrastructure (polygon) / Year in service (4-digit year)
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation
Scores:
Map only.
Notes:
Developable Lands are defined as cells whose centroids are NOT within a supplied Constraint polygon 4 indicators produced for each cell in sketch area grid: Single Family Dwelling Accessibility Multi-Family Dwelling Accessibility Retail Employment Accessibility Service/Other Employment Accessibility
707/904
252
October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F602. Developable land attractiveness – ITM
Definition and Units:
Travel accessibility score modified with presence/absence ratings for infrastructure and incentive coverages.
Formula:
See indicator F600 – ITM.
Shapefiles/Attributes:
Constraints (polygon)
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation
Scores:
Map only.
Note:
Developable Lands are defined as cells whose centroids are NOT within a supplied Constraint polygon
707/904
253
October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F603. Non-developable land attractiveness – DSS
Definition and Units:
Same calculation as developable attractiveness but applied to nondevelopable lands.
Formula:
See indicator F600 – DSS.
Shapefiles/Attributes:
Constraints (polygon) Incentives (polygon) / Weighting (numeric) Infrastructure (polygon) / Year in service (4-digit year)
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation
Scores:
Map only.
Note:
Non-Developable Lands are defined as cells whose centroids are within a supplied Constraint polygon 4 indicators produced for each cell in sketch area grid: Single Family Dwelling Accessibility Multi-Family Dwelling Accessibility Retail Employment Accessibility Service/Other Employment Accessibility
707/904
254
October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F603. Non-developable land attractiveness – ITM
Definition and Units:
Same calculation as developable attractiveness but applied to nondevelopable lands.
Formula:
See indicator F600 – ITM.
Shapefiles/Attributes:
Constraints (polygon) Incentives (polygon) / Weighting (numeric) Infrastructure (polygon) / Year in service (4-digit year)
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation
Scores:
Map only.
Note:
Non-Developable Lands are defined as cells whose centroids are within a supplied Constraint polygon
707/904
255
October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F604. Street network density – DSS
Definition and Units:
Total street centerline mi./sq.mi.
Formula:
∑ StCL
A
For each growth year’s street centerline:
StCL = length, street centerlines intersecting sketch boundary A = area, sketch boundary
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
User-Defined Parameters:
N/A
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 2.5-3.5.
707/904
256
October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F605. Street network extent – DSS
Definition and Units:
Total street centerline distance divided by total residents.
Formula:
∑ StCL
Pop StCL = length, growth year's street centerline intersecting sketch boundary Pop = sketch area population
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 0.008-0.011.
707/904
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October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F606. Person trips – DSS
Definition and Units:
Average person trips/capita/day.
Formula:
PersonTrips =
∑ (HBWP + HBOP + NHBP )
i i i 1
i
SketchAreaPopulation
HBWPi = DU i * TripsPerHH * 0.20 HBOPi = DU i * TripsPerHH * 0.57 NHBPi = DU i + ( REmpi * 4.1) + ( SEmpi *1.2) + (OEmpi * 0.50) TripsPerHH = ∑ (TGm * HPmi )
m =1 20
Where : i = Total number of cells in sketch area m = 20 TripGen/HHProfile parameters (5 ppHH classes by 4 vehicle ownership classes) HBWPi = Home - Based Work Trips Produced HBOPi = Home - Based Other Trips Produced NHBPi = Non Home - Based Trips Produced DU i = Dwelling Unit count (SF + MF) for cell i from Growth Allocation REmpi = Retail employment count for cell i from Growth Allocation SEmpi = Service employment count for cell i from Growth Allocation OEmpi = Other employment count for cell i from Growth Allocation TGm = One of 20 TripGen parameters HPm = One of 20 Household Profile parameters
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation Household Profiles (% of HHs by persons/HH and vehicle ownership) Trip Generation (person trips by persons/HH and vehicle ownership)
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 4-5.
258 October 2003
707/904
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F606. Person trips – ITM
Definition and Units:
Average person trips/capita/day
Formula:
Calculated by ITM
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 4-5.
707/904
259
October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F607. Person hours of travel – ITM
Definition and Units:
Average person hours/day/capita of travel.
Formula:
Calculated by ITM
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters.
707/904
260
October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F608a. Personal travel direct cost – DSS
Definition and Units:
Average daily direct costs for personal travel in $/day/capita.
Formula:
PTDC AUTO + PTDC PSNGR + PTDCTRANSIT + PTDC BIKEWALK
Person Trip Direct Cost =
PTDC AUTO = ModeShare AUTO * PersonTrips * ATL AUTO * DC AUTO PTDC PSNGR = ModeSharePSNGR * PersonTrips * ATLPSNGR * DC PSNGR PTDCTRANSIT = ModeShareTRANSIT * PersonTrips * ATLTRANSIT * DCTRANSIT PTDC BIKEWALK = ModeShareBIKEWALK * PersonTrips * ATLBIKEWALK * DC BIKEWALK
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation Total Person Trips (PersonTrips, from Indicator F606) % Mode Share for Auto (ModeShareAUTO from Indicator F614) % Mode Share for Passenger (ModeSharePSNGR from Indicator F615) % Mode Share for Transit (ModeShareTRANSIT from Indicator F618) % Mode Share for BikeWalk (ModeShareBIKEWALK Indicator F619) Average Auto Direct Cost Average Passenger Direct Cost Average Transit Direct Cost Average Walk/Bike Direct Cost Average Auto Trip Length (ATLAUTO from Indicator F625) Average Passenger Trip Length (ATLPSNGR from Indicator F625) Average Transit Trip Length (ATLTRANSIT from Indicator F625) Average BikeWalk Trip Length (ATLBIKEWALK from Indicator F625)
707/904
261
October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of $8-16. F608b. Personal travel direct cost – ITM
Indicator:
Definition and Units:
Average daily direct costs for personal travel in $/day/capita.
Formula:
Calculated in ITM
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation Average Auto Direct Cost Average Passenger Direct Cost Average Transit Direct Cost Average Walk/Bike Direct Cost
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of $8-16.
707/904
262
October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F609. Personal travel social cost – DSS
Definition and Units:
Average daily social costs for personal travel in $/day/capita.
Formula:
PTSC AUTO + PTSC PSNGR + PTSCTRANSIT + PTSC BIKEWALK
Person Trip Social Cost =
PTSC AUTO = ModeShareAUTO * PersonTrips * ATLAUTO * SC AUTO PTSC PSNGR = ModeSharePSNGR * PersonTrips * ATLPSNGR * SCPSNGR PTSCTRANSIT = ModeShareTRANSIT * PersonTrips * ATLTRANSIT * SCTRANSIT PTSC BIKEWALK = ModeShareBIKEWALK * PersonTrips * ATLBIKEWALK * SC BIKEWALK
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation Total Person Trips (PersonTrips, from Indicator F606) % Mode Share for Auto (ModeShareAUTO from Indicator F614) % Mode Share for Passenger (ModeSharePSNGR from Indicator F615) % Mode Share for Transit (ModeShareTRANSIT from Indicator F618) % Mode Share for BikeWalk (ModeShareBIKEWALK Indicator F619) Average Auto Social Cost Average Passenger Social Cost Average Transit Social Cost Average Walk/Bike Social Cost Average Auto Trip Length (ATLAUTO from Indicator F625) Average Passenger Trip Length (ATLPSNGR from Indicator F625) Average Transit Trip Length (ATLTRANSIT from Indicator F625) Average BikeWalk Trip Length (ATLBIKEWALK from Indicator F625)
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of $4-7.
707/904
263
October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F609. Personal travel social cost – ITM
Definition and Units:
Average daily social costs for personal travel in $/day/capita.
Formula:
Calculated in ITM
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth AllocationAverage Auto Social Cost Average Passenger Social Cost Average Transit Social Cost Average Walk/Bike Social Cost
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of $4-7.
707/904
264
October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F610. Vehicle trips – DSS
Definition and Units:
Average VT/day/capita.
Formula:
Vehicle Trips = PersonTrips * ModeShareAUTO
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation Total Person Trips (PersonTrips, from Indicator F606) % Mode Share for Auto (ModeShareAUTO from Indicator F614)
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 4.0-4.7.
707/904
265
October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F610. Vehicle trips – ITM
Definition and Units:
Average VT/day/capita.
Formula:
Calculated by ITM
Shapefiles/Attributes:
TAZ (polygon) / ITM_id (integer)
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation ITM PerHour-to-PerDay Conversion coefficient
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 4.0-4.7.
707/904
266
October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F611. Vehicle miles traveled – DSS
Definition and Units:
Average VMT/day/capita.
Formula:
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 16-25.
707/904
267
October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F611. Vehicle miles traveled – ITM
Definition and Units:
Average VMT/day/capita.
Formula:
Calculated by ITM
Shapefiles/Attributes:
TAZ (polygon) / ITM_id (integer)
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation ITM PerHour-to-PerDay Conversion coefficient
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 16-26.
707/904
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October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F612a. Arterial vehicle hours traveled – DSS
Definition and Units:
Average arterial VHT/day/capita.
Formula:
See following notes.
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters.
707/904
269
October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F612b. Freeway vehicle hours traveled – DSS
Definition and Units:
Average freeway VHT/day/capita
Formula:
See indicator F612a.
Shapefiles/Attributes:
TAZ (polygon) / ITM_id (integer)
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation ITM PerHour-to-PerDay Conversion coefficient
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters.
707/904
270
October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F613a. Arterial vehicle hours delay – DSS
Definition and Units:
Average arterial HD/day/capita.
Formula:
See indicator F612a.
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters.
707/904
271
October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F613b. Freeway vehicle hours delay – DSS
Definition and Units:
Average freeway VHD/day/capita.
Formula:
See indicator F612a.
Shapefiles/Attributes:
TAZ (polygon) / ITM_id (integer)
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation ITM PerHour-to-PerDay Conversion coefficient
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters.
707/904
272
October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F614. Auto driver mode share – DSS
Definition and Units:
Percent of total daily person trips by auto driver.
Formula:
ModeShare AUTO =
∑ ( HBWP *WorkShare
i 1
i
% AUTO i
+ HBOPi * OtherShare% AUTO + NHBPi * OtherShare% AUTO ) %
i i i
∑ ( HBWP + HBOP + NHBP )
1
WorkShare% AUTO = OtherShare% AUTO =
LastYrWorkShare% AUTO * eTSFAdj AUTO TSFAdj AUTO + TSFAdjPSNGR + TSFAdjTRANSIT + LastYrWorkShare%WALKBIKE TSFAdj AUTO LastYrOtherShare% AUTO * eTSFAdj AUTO + TSFAdj PSNGR + TSFAdjTRANSIT + LastYrOtherShare%WALKBIKE
TSFAdj AUTO = ( −0.25) * ∆VTTAUTO + (−0.05) * ∆OVTTAUTO + (-0.006) * ∆COSTAUTO TSFAdj PSNGR = (−0.25) * ∆VTTPSNGR + (−0.05) * ∆OVTTPSNGR + (-0.006) * ∆COSTPSNGR TSFAdjTRANSIT = (−0.25) * ∆VTTTRANSIT + (−0.05) * ∆OVTTTRANSIT + (-0.006) * ∆COSTTRANSIT Process identical for calcs of ModeSharePSNGR , ModeShareTRANSIT and ModeShareBIKEWALK ... Where : i = Total number of cells in sketch area LastYrShare = Previous growth year's share (Work or Other). In base year, use mode choice parameters HBWPi = Home - Based Work Trips Produced HBOPi = Home - Based Other Trips Produced NHBPi = Non Home - Based Trips Produced ∆VTT = Change in VTT value from previous growth year to current year ∆OVTT = Change in OVTT value from previous growth year to current year ∆COST = Change in COST value from previous growth year to current year
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
707/904
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October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation Work/Other Mode Split % parameters for Auto, Passenger, Transit, Walk/Bike 3 Transit Service Factors each for Auto, Carpool and Transit: 1. Average travel time in vehicle in minutes (VTT) 2. Average walk, wait, transfer time in minutes (OVTT) 3. Average trip cost including parking in $ (COST) Home-based Work Trips Produced (HBWP, From Indicator F606) Home-based Other Trips Produced (HBOP, From Indicator F606) Non Home-based Trips Produced (NHBP, From Indicator F606)
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 70-80%.
707/904
274
October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F615. Auto passenger mode share – DSS
Definition and Units:
Percent of total daily person trips by auto passengers.
Formula:
See Indicator F614.
Shapefiles/Attributes:
See Indicator F614.
User-Defined Parameters:
See Indicator F614.
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 18-30%.
707/904
275
October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F616. Bus transit mode share – ITM
Definition and Units:
% of daily person trips by bus transit.
Formula:
Calculated in ITM.
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A.
User-Defined Parameters:
N/A.
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters.
707/904
276
October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F617. Rail transit mode share – ITM
Definition and Units:
% of total daily person trips by rail transit.
Formula:
Calculated in ITM.
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A.
User-Defined Parameters:
N/A.
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters.
707/904
277
October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F618. All transit mode share – DSS
Definition and Units:
% of total daily trips by all transit types.
Formula:
See indicator F614.
Shapefiles/Attributes:
See indicator F614.
User-Defined Parameters:
See indicator F614.
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters.
707/904
278
October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F619. Walk/bike mode share – DSS
Definition and Units:
Percent of total daily person trips by walk/bike.
Formula:
See indicator F614.
Shapefiles/Attributes:
See indicator F614.
User-Defined Parameters:
See indicator F614.
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 0.6-2.8.
707/904
279
October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F620. Corridor vehicle travel time – ITM
Definition and Units:
Average point-to-point travel time in minutes weighted by mode shares and speeds.
Formula:
Calculated by ITM
Shapefiles/Attributes:
CorridorCL Street Centerlines (line) / XXX ITM column (numeric)
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation ITM PerHour-to-PerDay Conversion coefficient
Scores:
Map only.
707/904
280
October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F621. Roadway volumes – ITM
Definition and Units:
Peak hour and ADT if possible.
Formula:
Calculated by ITM
Shapefiles/Attributes:
Street Centerlines (line) / XXX ITM column (numeric)
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation ITM PerHour-to-PerDay Conversion coefficient
Scores:
Map only.
707/904
281
October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F622. Roadway level of service – ITM
Definition and Units:
Formula:
Calculated by ITM
Shapefiles/Attributes:
Street Centerlines (line) / XXX ITM column (numeric)
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation ITM PerHour-to-PerDay Conversion coefficient
Scores:
Map only.
707/904
282
October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F623. Roadway volume/capacity ratio – ITM
Definition and Units:
Formula:
Calculated by ITM
Shapefiles/Attributes:
Street Centerlines (line) / XXX ITM column (numeric)
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation ITM PerHour-to-PerDay Conversion coefficient
Scores:
Map only.
707/904
283
October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F624. Congested vehicle miles traveled – ITM
Definition and Units:
Congested VMT/day/capita.
Formula:
Calculated by ITM
Shapefiles/Attributes:
TAZ (polygon) / ITM_id (integer)
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation ITM PerHour-to-PerDay Conversion coefficient
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters.
707/904
284
October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F625. Average auto trip length – DSS
Definition and Units:
Average miles per auto trip.
Formula:
VMT VT
Auto:
ATLMode
Passenger, Transit, Bike/Walk Modes:
ATLMode = Average Trip Length parameter entered by user VMT = VMT Indicator (F611) VT = VT Indicator (F610)
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation Passenger, Transit, Bike/Walk Average Trip Lengths VT Indicator (F610) VMT Indicator (F611)
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters.
707/904
285
October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F625. Average auto trip length – ITM
Definition and Units:
Average miles per auto trip.
Formula:
Calculated by ITM
Shapefiles/Attributes:
TAZ (polygon) / ITM_id (integer)
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters.
707/904
286
October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F626. Multi-modal access
Definition and Units:
% of DU served by three or more modes.
Formula:
∑ DU ∑ DU
mm
DU mm = dwelling units contained in cells that have their centroid within 1/8 mi. of three or more modes DU = dwelling units
Shapefiles/Attributes:
Street centerlines (line) / sidewalk attribute (integer) Transit routes (line) / Year (4-digit year) Bike routes (line) / Year (4-digit year)
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters.
707/904
287
October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F627. Auto energy use – DSS
Definition and Units:
Average MMBtu/yr/capita for auto travel.
Formula:
VMTcapita − day MPGlightvehicle
* (0.1154 MMBtu/gal )* 365 days/year
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation MPGlightvehicle
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 25-40.
707/904
288
October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F627. Auto energy use – ITM
Definition and Units:
Average MMBtu/yr/capita for auto travel.
Formula:
Calculated by ITM
Shapefiles/Attributes:
TAZ (polygon) / ITM_id (integer)
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth Allocation ITM Per Hour-to-Per Day Conversion coefficient
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 25-40.
707/904
289
October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F628. Transit energy use – ITM
Definition and Units:
Average MMBtu/yr/capita for transit travel.
Formula:
Calculated by ITM
Shapefiles/Attributes:
TAZ (polygon) / ITM_id (integer)
User-Defined Parameters:
Growth AllocationITM Per Hour-to-Per Day Conversion coefficient
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters.
707/904
290
October 2003
DSS Forecast
Forecast Indicator Dictionary
Indicator:
F700. Carbon monoxide (CO) emissions – DSS
Definition and Units:
Travel and housing emissions in lbs/yr/capita.
Formula:
(Ptrav + Pdwell )/ 2000
Ptrav = VMT percapita * CO2Coef * 365 / 453.6 Pdwell = ResBldgEne rgy percapita * EnergyCoef f EnergyCoeff = (Elec% * BldgElecPollCoef + NatGas % * BldgNatGas PollCoef + HeatOil % * BldgHeatOi lPollCoef
)
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
User-Defined Parameters:
Residential building energy, MMBtu/capita (indicator, component of Energy Consumption) VMTcapita-day (indicator) Building energy: percent electric, percent natural gas, percent heating oil Building CO2 coefficients, electricity and natural gas and heating oil, lb/MMBtu Travel CO2 coefficients, g/mile
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 250-800.
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Indicator:
F700. Carbon monoxide (CO) emissions – ITM
Definition and Units:
Travel and housing emissions in lbs/yr/capita.
Formula:
(Ptrav + Pdwell )/ 2000
Ptrav = VMT percapita * CO2Coef * 365 / 453.6 Pdwell = ResBldgEne rgy percapita * EnergyCoef f EnergyCoeff = (Elec% * BldgElecPollCoef + NatGas % * BldgNatGas PollCoef + HeatOil % * BldgHeatOi lPollCoef
)
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
User-Defined Parameters:
Residential building energy, MMBtu/capita (indicator, component of Energy Consumption). VMTcapita-day (indicator). Building energy: percent electric, percent natural gas, percent heating oil. Building CO2 coefficients, electricity and natural gas and heating oil, lb/MMBtu. Travel CO2 coefficients, g/mile.
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 250-800.
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Indicator:
F701. Hydrocarbon (HC) emissions – DSS
Definition and Units:
Travel and housing emissions in lbs/yr/capita.
Formula:
(Ptrav + Pdwell )/ 2000
Ptrav = VMT percapita * CO2Coef * 365 / 453.6 Pdwell = ResBldgEne rgy percapita * EnergyCoef f EnergyCoeff = (Elec% * BldgElecPollCoef + NatGas % * BldgNatGas PollCoef + HeatOil % * BldgHeatOi lPollCoef
)
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
User-Defined Parameters:
Residential building energy, MMBtu/capita (indicator, component of Energy Consumption). VMTcapita-day (indicator). Building energy: percent electric, percent natural gas, percent heating oil. Building CO2 coefficients, electricity and natural gas and heating oil, lb/MMBtu. Travel CO2 coefficients, g/mile.
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 34-75.
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Indicator:
F701. Hydrocarbon (HC) emissions – ITM
Definition and Units:
Travel and housing emissions in lbs/yr/capita.
Formula:
(Ptrav + Pdwell )/ 2000
Ptrav = VMT percapita * CO2Coef * 365 / 453.6 Pdwell = ResBldgEne rgy percapita * EnergyCoef f EnergyCoeff = (Elec% * BldgElecPollCoef + NatGas % * BldgNatGas PollCoef + HeatOil % * BldgHeatOi lPollCoef
)
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
User-Defined Parameters:
Residential building energy, MMBtu/capita (indicator, component of Energy Consumption). VMTcapita-day (indicator). Building energy: percent electric, percent natural gas, percent heating oil. Building CO2 coefficients, electricity and natural gas and heating oil, lb/MMBtu. Travel CO2 coefficients, g/mile.
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 34-75.
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Indicator:
F702. Oxides of sulphur (SOx) emissions – DSS
Definition and Units:
Travel and housing emissions in lbs/yr/capita.
Formula:
(Ptrav + Pdwell )/ 2000
Ptrav = VMT percapita * CO2Coef * 365 / 453.6 Pdwell = ResBldgEne rgy percapita * EnergyCoef f EnergyCoeff = (Elec% * BldgElecPollCoef + NatGas % * BldgNatGas PollCoef + HeatOil % * BldgHeatOi lPollCoef
)
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
User-Defined Parameters:
Residential building energy, MMBtu/capita (indicator, component of Energy Consumption). VMTcapita-day (indicator). Building energy: percent electric, percent natural gas, percent heating oil. Building CO2 coefficients, electricity and natural gas and heating oil, lb/MMBtu. Travel CO2 coefficients, g/mile.
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 12-13.
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Indicator:
F702. Oxides of sulphur (SOx) emissions – ITM
Definition and Units:
Travel and housing emissions in lbs/yr/capita.
Formula:
(Ptrav + Pdwell )/ 2000
Ptrav = VMT percapita * CO2Coef * 365 / 453.6 Pdwell = ResBldgEne rgy percapita * EnergyCoef f EnergyCoeff = (Elec% * BldgElecPollCoef + NatGas % * BldgNatGas PollCoef + HeatOil % * BldgHeatOi lPollCoef
)
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
User-Defined Parameters:
Residential building energy, MMBtu/capita (indicator, component of Energy Consumption). VMTcapita-day (indicator). Building energy: percent electric, percent natural gas, percent heating oil. Building CO2 coefficients, electricity and natural gas and heating oil, lb/MMBtu. Travel CO2 coefficients, g/mile.
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 12-13.
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Indicator:
F703. Particulate matter (PM) emissions – DSS
Definition and Units:
Travel and housing emissions in lbs/yr/capita.
Formula:
(Ptrav + Pdwell )/ 2000
Ptrav = VMT percapita * CO2Coef * 365 / 453.6 Pdwell = ResBldgEne rgy percapita * EnergyCoef f EnergyCoeff = (Elec% * BldgElecPollCoef + NatGas % * BldgNatGas PollCoef + HeatOil % * BldgHeatOi lPollCoef
)
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
User-Defined Parameters:
Residential building energy, MMBtu/capita (indicator, component of Energy Consumption). VMTcapita-day (indicator). Building energy: percent electric, percent natural gas, percent heating oil. Building CO2 coefficients, electricity and natural gas and heating oil, lb/MMBtu. Travel CO2 coefficients, g/mile.
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 1-2.
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Indicator:
F703. Particulate matter (PM) emissions – ITM
Definition and Units:
Travel and housing emissions in lbs/yr/capita.
Formula:
(Ptrav + Pdwell )/ 2000
Ptrav = VMT percapita * CO2Coef * 365 / 453.6 Pdwell = ResBldgEne rgy percapita * EnergyCoef f EnergyCoeff = (Elec% * BldgElecPollCoef + NatGas % * BldgNatGas PollCoef + HeatOil % * BldgHeatOi lPollCoef
)
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
User-Defined Parameters:
Residential building energy, MMBtu/capita (indicator, component of Energy Consumption). VMTcapita-day (indicator). Building energy: percent electric, percent natural gas, percent heating oil. Building CO2 coefficients, electricity and natural gas and heating oil, lb/MMBtu. Travel CO2 coefficients, g/mile.
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 1-2.
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Indicator:
F704. Oxides of nitrogen (NOx) emissions – DSS
Definition and Units:
Travel and housing emissions in lbs/yr/capita.
Formula:
(Ptrav + Pdwell )/ 2000
Ptrav = VMT percapita * CO2Coef * 365 / 453.6 Pdwell = ResBldgEne rgy percapita * EnergyCoef f EnergyCoeff = (Elec% * BldgElecPollCoef + NatGas % * BldgNatGas PollCoef + HeatOil % * BldgHeatOi lPollCoef
)
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
User-Defined Parameters:
Residential building energy, MMBtu/capita (indicator, component of Energy Consumption). VMTcapita-day (indicator). Building energy: percent electric, percent natural gas, percent heating oil. Building CO2 coefficients, electricity and natural gas and heating oil, lb/MMBtu. Travel CO2 coefficients, g/mile.
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 30-50.
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Indicator:
F704. Oxides of nitrogen (NOx) emissions – ITM
Definition and Units:
Travel and housing emissions in lbs/yr/capita.
Formula:
(Ptrav + Pdwell )/ 2000
Ptrav = VMT percapita * CO2Coef * 365 / 453.6 Pdwell = ResBldgEne rgy percapita * EnergyCoef f EnergyCoeff = (Elec% * BldgElecPollCoef + NatGas % * BldgNatGas PollCoef + HeatOil % * BldgHeatOi lPollCoef
)
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
User-Defined Parameters:
Residential building energy, MMBtu/capita (indicator, component of Energy Consumption). VMTcapita-day (indicator). Building energy: percent electric, percent natural gas, percent heating oil. Building CO2 coefficients, electricity and natural gas and heating oil, lb/MMBtu. Travel CO2 coefficients, g/mile.
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 30-50.
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Indicator:
F705. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions – DSS
Definition and Units:
Travel and housing emissions in lbs/yr/capita.
Formula:
(Ptrav + Pdwell )/ 2000
Ptrav = VMT percapita * CO2Coef * 365 / 453.6 Pdwell = ResBldgEne rgy percapita * EnergyCoef f EnergyCoeff = (Elec% * BldgElecPollCoef + NatGas % * BldgNatGas PollCoef + HeatOil % * BldgHeatOi lPollCoef
)
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
User-Defined Parameters:
Residential building energy, MMBtu/capita (indicator, component of Energy Consumption). VMTcapita-day (indicator). Building energy: percent electric, percent natural gas, percent heating oil. Building CO2 coefficients, electricity and natural gas and heating oil, lb/MMBtu. Travel CO2 coefficients, g/mile.
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 11,000-22,000.
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Indicator:
F705
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions – ITM
Definition and Units:
Travel and housing emissions in lbs/yr/capita.
Formula:
(Ptrav + Pdwell )/ 2000
Ptrav = VMT percapita * CO2Coef * 365 / 453.6 Pdwell = ResBldgEne rgy percapita * EnergyCoef f EnergyCoeff = (Elec% * BldgElecPollCoef + NatGas % * BldgNatGas PollCoef + HeatOil % * BldgHeatOi lPollCoef
)
Shapefiles/Attributes:
N/A
User-Defined Parameters:
Residential building energy, MMBtu/capita (indicator, component of Energy Consumption). VMTcapita-day (indicator). Building energy: percent electric, percent natural gas, percent heating oil. Building CO2 coefficients, electricity and natural gas and heating oil, lb/MMBtu. Travel CO2 coefficients, g/mile.
Scores:
Will vary based on sketch area size and location in county, length of forecast, amount of growth projected, and applicable user-defined parameters. Preliminary countywide tests indicate a 20-year forecast range of 11,000-22,000.
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Appendix A
ACCESSIBILITY & ATTRACTIVENESS CALCULATIONS
Introduction
This appendix describes two key calculations that significantly affect the spatial form of forecast sketches and the overall outcome of those sketches. These are calculations for:
Accessibility. This is a transportation planning measurement that expresses separation between one location and all other locations in a sketch area. Although there is no uniform method of expressing accessibility, it is often measured in terms of mode-weighted travel time from an origin location to all other destinations in the sketch area. In a non-technical sense, accessibility can be thought of as the convenience and efficiency of traveling between a location and major regional destinations such as population and employment centers.
Attractiveness. The attractiveness of a location for growth is defined in DSS to be that location’s travel accessibility score modified by the presence or absence of infrastructure and/or policy incentives that encourage development. Thus, the likelihood of growth at a location is based on the ease with which it can be reached, and further by its infrastructure suitability or policy encouragement for development. In forecast sketches, the DSS calculates accessibility and attractiveness for both developable and non-developable land. The latter calculation is intended as an expression of “pressure” to convert attractive non-developable land to developable status.
Calculation of Accessibility & Attractiveness for Developable Land
The following steps describe in general terms the accessibility and attractiveness calculations for developable land. 1. Calculate travel accessibility. Travel accessibility for a developable cell is determined by its proximity (inverse of travel time) to related land-uses. employment cells, these ratings are determined as follows:
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For each developable residential cell, the accessibility rating is each cell’s relative proximity to all employment cells (work-trip attractors), compared with the work-trip proximity for all other developable residential cells.
For each developable retail cell, the accessibility rating is the cell’s relative proximity to all shopping-trip generators (home-based-other trip accessibility to all residential cells, and nonhome-based trip proximity to all non-residential cells), compared with the shopping-trip proximity for all other developable retail cells.
For other developable employment cells (service and all other jobs), the accessibility rating is the cell’s relative proximity to all other non-residential cells (non-home-based trip proximity), compared with the non-home-based trip proximity for all other developable employment cells. Two methods are available to calculate the growth attractiveness of the developable cells. The first is based upon a travel accessibility calculated using the DSS transportation submodel. In general, the DSS submodel steps involve:
Measuring the airline distance from the origin cell to all destination cells containing compatible uses (as defined above).
Converting the airline distances to distances traveled over the street network to determine the relationship between airline distance and travel distance on local streets, arterials, and freeways. This is accomplished by the model’s random selection of five destination points for each cell, and a street network distance measurement for those origin/destination pairs.
Computing cell-to-cell travel times by applying average congested arterial and freeway speeds.
Converting the cell-to-cell travel times to cell-to-cell impedance using a friction-factor formula.
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Determining the number of trip attractions in the destination cell for the relevant trip purpose specified above (home-based-work, home-based-other, and/or non-home-based).
Multiplying the number of attractions in the destination cell by the cell-to-cell travel impedance between the origin and destination cells to determine cell-to-cell accessibility.
Repeating for all other compatible destination cells, and sum origin cell=s accessibility to all compatible destination cells to obtain composite accessibility.
Computing composite accessibility for all origin cells, and sum to obtain area-wide accessibility total.
Calculating each origin cell’s share of total area-wide accessibility by dividing its individual composite accessibility by the area-wide accessibility total. When the ITM interface is used, the cell-to-cell impedance calculations in steps (a) through (d) are replaced with the ITM composite utility with the following steps:
Import the TAZ based composite utility matrix into the DSS from ITM
For each TAZ, calculate the trip attractions and productions by trip type required for the accessibility scores.
Calculate TAZ accessibilities maps as a function of the composite utility and trip attractions and productions.
Generate three accessibility grids, one from each of the TAZ accessibility maps.
Smooth the TAZ accessibility grids with a focal filter.
Create grids of the street networks by classification (Freeway, Arterial, Collector, Local).
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Create an accumulated travel cost grid of the cost to travel from each cell to the nearest Arterial or Freeway interchange.
Apply the accumulated travel cost grid to each of the smoothed TAZ-to-TAZ accessibility grids. When a cell is split by one or more TAZs, separate composite utility values are calculated for each TAZ and combined. The cell-to-cell composite utility values are then applied to original steps (f) through (I) to calculate the cell accessibility score. The above calculations yield up to three accessibility scores for each cell: 1) a residential accessibility score based on prospective residents’ proximity to jobs, 2) a retail accessibility score based on proximity to prospective shoppers’ homes and work places, and 3) an employment accessibility score based on proximity to other employment and services. These scores are used independently when allocating growth in housing, retail jobs, and non-retail jobs, respectively. 2. Rate growth attractiveness in terms of infrastructure and soils. In this step, the model refers to the GIS coverages of existing and planned infrastructure service areas. Developable cells are scored in terms of the presence in such areas (serviced, 1.25; planned for service, 1.0; no service planned, 0.75). The user is able to alter this scoring scale in order to weight the importance of infrastructure in relation to the travel accessibility score. The year of planned service area expansions must be provided in the database in order for the model to correctly adjust scores during the interval years of a growth scenario. All “no service” areas are further differentiated according to soil suitability for septic sewer systems (suitable, 1.0; unsuitable, 0.85).
Calculation of Accessibility & Attractiveness for Non-Developable Land
The calculation procedure described above for developable land is performed on those lands defined as non-developable by the user only when the DSS database is populated for that land area.
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Appendix B TRANSPORTATION SUBMODEL
This appendix describes the DSS transportation submodel. When snapshot sketches are prepared, user-specified baseline VT and VMT values are adjusted by the submodel using research-derived elasticities that estimate VT and VMT change based on the amount of change in the sketch area’s land-use density, diversity, and/or pedestrian design. When operated with forecast sketching, the transportation submodel calculates travel accessibilities and indicator scores using a procedure similar to traditional four-step travel demand modeling, but stopping short of assigning trips to a street network. The basic forecast sketch application performs a simplified four-step transportation forecasting process based on user input. Trip generation and mode choice are based on national average rates for similar size urban areas from the Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey (NPTS), and are expressed as a function of household size and auto ownership. Trip distribution (internal/ external split) is estimated based on a simplified gravity model, which compares the size and population level within the sketch area to the population within a 40-mile commute shed (sufficient to contain at least 95% of sketch area travel). In predicting the amount of travel that will remain internal to the sketch area, the trip distribution estimate accounts for the relative balances of housing with jobs, and housing with shopping and social/recreational opportunities (home-based-other trip balance). Internal trip distribution is performed on a cell-by-cell basis using a gravity model. The model uses travel impedance curves (friction factors) from cities of similar size from NCHRP Report 365, Travel Estimating Techniques for Urban Planning, 1998, and links productions from a given cell to available attraction cells as a function of the relative magnitude of same-purpose attractions and the inverse of travel impedance to the attraction cells. VMT and VHT are estimated based on trip lengths determined in the trip distribution estimate for internal and internal/external travel. Using national research by Texas Transportation Institute on congestion indices in urban areas, a simplified estimate of VHD is produced, based on VMT, urban area size, sketch area density, sketch area lane miles by class, and the user rating of sketch area congestion levels.
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Beyond the basic application, the user has the option of enriching the analysis with local data as follows: a. Local Household Profile. The user can supply local information on household size and auto ownership to replace the national average default data. Local data will affect the model’s prediction of household trip generation and mode choice based on NPTS relationships. b. Mode Performance. Under this enhancement, the user can test the impacts of changes in the relative performance of the drive alone, HOV, and transit modes. The user provides either real or hypothetical changes in relative modal travel times and costs. NCHRP-derived elasticity factors are used to predict the effects on mode choice and other indicators. c. Background Traffic Counts. Without baseline information on traffic volumes and general congestion levels within the sketch area, the DSS will have a limited sensitivity in estimating VHD changes between land-use alternatives. This enhancement allows the user to obtain improved VHD estimates by initializing the model with information on the existing amounts of traffic on sketch area freeways and arterials and the existing levels of congestion on a qualitative scale. The following sections describe each of the submodel’s major calculations.
Trip Generation
Step 1: Define Sketch Area
1. User identifies the local urban area population size. 2. User identifies presence of any rail transit available in the region. 3. User estimates commuteshed population within 40 miles of edge of sketch area.
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Step 2:
Create Household Auto Ownership Profile
1. Produce profiles of household size and auto ownership for sketch area. The DSS will contain default values as shown in Table B-1 based on national data. The default matrices are displayed to the user, who may modify them as long as totals are controlled to 100%. Note that changes to the profiles of persons per household may alter the total sketch area population; users may wish to counterbalance such changes with compensating modifications in other household categories. Step 3: Generate Production Trip Ends
1. The model multiplies cross-classified household data in each sketch area cell by rates developed in the Transportation Research Board NCHRP Report 365. Rates were developed for four ranges of urban population size as shown in Table B-2. The population determined in Step 1 above determines the appropriate rates to use. The result is the number of productions for each cell in the sketch area. 2. The model applies the following trip purpose percents to separate total productions for each sketch area cell into three trip purposes: home-based-work, home-based-other, and non-homebased: HBW HBO NHB 20% 57% 23%
Non-home-based productions are not used, because the attraction calculations are considered to determine the level of NHB trips more accurately, and the location of non-NHB attractions determines the location of NHB productions, as described below in production and attraction balancing.
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Table B-1
HOUSEHOLD PROFILES OF SIZE & AUTO OWNERSHIP
Urban Areas 50k - 200k Persons # of vehicles 0 1 2 3+ All hh 1-pers hh 4.5% 16.5% 2.2% 0.4% 23.6% 2-pers hh 1.5% 9.4% 17.2% 3.6% 31.7% 3-pers hh 0.7% 3.5% 7.5% 5.2% 16.9% 4-pers hh 0.6% 2.7% 7.0% 5.6% 15.9% 5+ pers hh 0.5% 2.0% 5.1% 4.1% 11.7% All hh 7.8% 34.1% 39.0% 18.9% 99.8%
Source: Adapted from U.S. Census
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Table B-2
TRIP PRODUCTION RATES FOR SELECTED URBAN AREA POPULATIONS
Urbanized Area Pop 50,000 – 199,999 Persons/Household 0 1 2 3+ 1 2.6 4.0 4.0 4.0 2 4.8 6.7 8.1 8.4 3 7.4 9.2 10.6 11.9 4 9.2 11.5 13.3 15.1 5+ 11.2 13.7 16.7 18.0
Autos Owned
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Step 4:
Generate Attraction Trip Ends
The model calculates attraction trip ends using the following equations from NCHRP Report 365 for non-central business district areas to obtain the number of attractions for each trip purpose for each cell in the sketch area: HBW Attr = 1.45 * Total Employment HBO Attr = 9.00 * Retail Emp + 1.7 * Service Emp + 0.5 * Other Emp + 0.9 * Households NHB Attr = 4.10 * Retail Emp + 1.2 * Service Emp + 0.5 * Other Emp + 1.1 * Households NHB productions in each cell are calculated using the same formula given above for NHB attractions.
Mode Choice
Lookup matrices derived from the Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey are used to calculate percent auto driver, percent auto passenger, percent transit, and percent bike or walk on the basis of: urban size; rail availability; proximity to transit lines; trip purpose (work versus other); and household size and auto ownership (indirectly, through their effect on total person trip generation). Table B-3 provides the default mode choice percentages. Enhancement options include: a. Household Profile Data. The user can override the default values by inserting local auto ownership and family size information. b. Mode Performance Factors. The user may specify changes in the relative performance characteristics of transit, HOV and drive-alone modes on the following three factors: 1.1.2 In-Vehicle Travel Time (VTT), or time spent traveling within an auto, van, bus or train. Out-of-Vehicle Travel Time (OVTT), or time spent walking to a parking spot or transit stop, or waiting for a carpool or transit vehicle. Out-of-Pocket Cost (COST), which could include transit fare, auto operating cost, tolls or parking charges.
1.1.3
1.1.4
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Table B-3
MODE CHOICE PERCENT LOOKUP
<1/4 Mile to Transit
Work Driver Auto Psgr Transit Walk/Bike 86.9% 7.6% 5.0% 0.4% 100.0%
Other 63.7% 33.2% 1.9% 1.2% 100.0%
Sources:
Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey: 1990 NPTS Databook, Volume 1, page 4-75. Ibid, page 4-78. 1990 NPTS Urban Travel Patterns, page 4-4.
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Table B-3 Continued
MODE CHOICE PERCENT LOOKUP
1/4-1/2 Mile to Transit
Work Driver Auto Psgr Transit Walk/Bike 88.9% 7.8% 3.0% 0.3% 100.0%
Other 64.4% 33.6% 1.1% 0.8% 100.0%
Sources:
Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey: 1990 NPTS Databook, Volume 1, page 4-75. Ibid, page 4-78. 1990 NPTS Urban Travel Patterns, page 4-4.
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Table B-3 Continued
MODE CHOICE PERCENT LOOKUP
½+ Mile to Transit
Work Driver Auto Psgr Transit Walk/Bike 90.4 7.9 1.5 0.3% 100.0%
Other 64.9 33.9 0.5 0.7 100.0%
Sources:
Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey: 1990 NPTS Databook, Volume 1, page 4-75. Ibid, page 4-78. 1990 NPTS Urban Travel Patterns, page 4-4.
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The model will then calculate changes in modal utilities (U) based on these three factors, using the following relationships. It should be noted that other steps in the model described later account for shifts to non-motorized travel, including assessments of proximity to transit and the effects of land use characteristics. U (auto) U (hov) U (tran) = [- 0.025 * VTT (auto)] + [-0.050 * OVTT (auto)] + [-.006 *COST (auto)] = [- 0.025 * VTT (hov)] + [-0.050 * OVTT (hov)] + [-.006 *COST (hov)] = [- 0.025 * VTT (tran)] + [-0.050 * OVTT (tran)] + [-.006 *COST (tran)]
The new mode shares for each mode are calculated by: New Mode % = Old Mode % * exp U(mode) / sum1..n (Old Moden % * exp U(mode)n), 1 where U is the change in utility and n is the number of modes.
External Trip Distribution
The external trip distribution step is run following trip generation and mode split to compute the number of trips that leave the sketch area (I-X or X-I trips), excluding through trips. Some of the results of calculations in this process are also used in the subsequent process, which distributes travel staying completely inside the sketch area (I-I trips). References below to productions, attractions, or trips mean the auto mode, as trip distribution processes apply only to auto travel. Step 1: Calculate Travel Distances Internal to Sketch Area
Calculate the straight-line distance between the centers of each pair of cells I and j in the sketch area and store the result in row I, column j, in the travel distance matrix. Calculate each diagonal matrix-cell (where I = j) as the average straight-line distance from any point within the cell to the cell perimeter. This is used as the average distance for trips made entirely within the corresponding geographic cell (intra-cell trips).
See “Discrete Choice Analysis,” Ben Akiva & Lerman, 1985, as reprinted in NCHRP Report 365, Travel Estimation Techniques for Urban Planning, 1998. 707/904 316 October 2003
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Step 2: Calculate Average Distances Between Internal and External Trip Ends and Sketch Area Perimeter The DSS calculates the average straight-line distance from sketch area cells to the sketch area perimeter. The average distance of the external portion of a trip between the sketch area and the 40-mile outside commuteshed is then calculated. Based on an examination of Census journey-towork data for a full range of US urban areas, the 40-mile radius captures about 98% of all commuting from a trip source-point. Therefore, the analysis uses this cut-off as a means of keeping the study region size manageable without excluding a significant amount of travel. The average extent of a trip into the 40-mile commuteshed is a function of the size of the sketch area relative to the size of the commuteshed. The DSS makes the simplifying assumption that commuteshed population and employment are uniformly distributed within the commuteshed. Step 3: Calculate Friction Factors
The term “cell” in this step refers to a sketch area cell or to the area of the commuteshed outside the sketch area (this external area as a whole is represented as one row and column in the matrices developed here). The DSS will assign “terminal impedance” values to each cell, to represent the cost and time associated with beginning and ending a trip (for example, the time required to park a car, or to walk to or from a transit stop). The impedances apply to motorized trips; other steps in the model account for shifts to non-motorized travel, including assessments of proximity to transit and the effects of land use characteristics. These terminal impedances are expressed in minutes and vary by area type. The DSS determines a cell’s terminal impedance based on the following information from NCHRP Report 365:
Area type CBD CBD Fringe Urban Suburban Exurban/Rural
Terminal Impedance 5 4 3 2 1
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The friction factor between each pair of cells is calculated as: dij tij Fij Where: = dij aij neti tij = =
b
aij * neti dij / [v(dij)/60] + Ti + Tj
(tij) * ectij = = = = network distance from cell I to j straight-line distance from cell I to j network directness adjustment factor for zone I (based on sample of five destinations) travel-time impedance from cell I to j in minutes average travel speed which varies as a function of distance terminal impedance for cells I and j friction factor between cells I and j model coefficients from NCHRP Report 365 base of natural logarithms
v(dij) = T i, T j = Fij b, c e = = =
Model coefficients from NCHRP are: Trip Purpose HBW HBO NHB b -0.020 -1.285 -1.332 c -0.123 -0.094 -0.100
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Step 4:
Calculate Productions and Attractions for Area Outside Sketch Area
The DSS performs the following procedure for each trip purpose. In the trip generation process, productions and attractions were calculated for each cell in the sketch area. Total productions for the area outside are now calculated as: PopX PX = PI * ________ PopI where PX PI PopX PopI = = = = Productions generated in external area Productions generated in sketch area (from trip generation step) Population of external area Population of sketch area
Total external area attractions are calculated as: AX = PI + P X - AI where AX AI PX PI = = = = Attractions generated in external area Attractions generated in sketch area Productions generated in external area Productions generated in sketch area
This produces the number of outside attractions required so that overall productions and attractions are equal (”balanced”).
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Step 5:
Calculate Travel Staying Within Sketch Area
The DSS will perform the following procedure for each trip purpose: AI * F( DII ) _______________________ AI * F( DII ) + AX * F( DI + DX ) Min [ ( PI * %P ), ( 0.95 * AI ) ] PII AII / AI
%P
=
PII AII %A where %P %A PII AII PI AI AX F( ) DI DX DII = = = = = = = = = = =
= = =
Percent of any cell’s productions used for internal trips Percent of any cell’s attractions used for internal trips Productions generated by all cells in sketch area for trips within sketch area Attractions generated by all cells in sketch area for trips within sketch area Productions generated by all cells in sketch area for internal and external travel Attractions generated by all cells in sketch area for internal and external travel Attractions generated in external area Friction factor calculated as shown in Step 3 Avg straight-line distance through sketch area for external trips Avg straight-line distance through outside area for external trips Avg straight-line distance between all pairs of internal cells
%P and %A are used in the current process and stored for use in sketch area trip distribution.
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Step 6:
Distribute External Travel
The DSS will perform the following procedure for each trip purpose. For each cell, trips between its productions and the external area as (1- %P) x total productions generated in the cell are calculated. The result is placed in the appropriate purpose trip table in the matrix-cell where the cell’s row intersects the external area column. Also for each cell, trips between its attractions and the external area as (1 - %A) x total attractions generated in the cell are calculated. The result is placed in the appropriate purpose trip table in the matrix-cell where the cell’s column intersects the external area row.
Internal Trip Distribution
Step 1: Calculate Number of Trips Staying Within Sketch Area
The DSS will perform the following procedures for each trip purpose. For each cell in the sketch area, apply the internal productions percent (%P) calculated previously to the total productions generated in the cell to get internal travel productions for distribution below. For each cell in the sketch area, apply the internal attractions percent (%A) calculated previously to the total attractions generated in the cell to get internal travel attractions for distribution below.
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Step 2:
Distribute Internal Trips Using Gravity Model
The DSS will perform the following procedure for each trip purpose. It calculates the number of trips from each cell to each other cell as: Aj Fij
cells
Tij = Pi x
____________
Σ AkFik
k=1
where Tij Pi Aj Fij
= = = =
number of trips from cell I to cell j productions in cell I for trips within sketch area attractions in cell j for trips within sketch area friction factor between cells I and j (calculated and stored previously)
At the completion of this step, each purpose trip table contains the internal external trips calculated and stored previously. Step 3: Balance the Trip Tables
The DSS will interactively balances each purpose trip table so that the number of distributed productions and attractions for each cell approximates the productions and attractions generated in the cell. First, the number of trips in each column is summed, and the ratio of that sum to the attractions generated in the cell corresponding to the column is calculated. Then the cells in the column are factored by that ratio. After completing all columns of the trip table, the same process is applied to the trip table row-wise. Three iterations are performed (3 row adjustments and 3 column adjustments), with the final adjustment performed on the rows. Step 4: Combine Trip Tables for All Purposes to Produce Total Table of All Trips Generated in
Sketch Area Steps 1-3 above produce three trip tables (HBW, HBO, and NHB), each containing the internal trips (I-I) calculated above, and the external trips (I-X and X-I) calculated previously. These three tables are added together, cell by cell, to produce one total trip table of all trips generated in the sketch area.
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Trip Length
Ratios of roadway distance to airline distance are calculated by building shortest roadway paths on the GIS street centerline network from each cell centroid to five points: one point each on the north, south, east, and west sides of the sketch area perimeter, plus the sketch area centroid. These same five points are used for each cell. For each path, the program keeps track of local street, arterial, and freeway miles separately. The five sets of results for each cell are averaged, and three ratios are calculated for the cell: local street, arterial, and freeway miles to airline miles. These ratios are stored in a matrix having one row for each cell, and one column each for the local street, arterial, and freeway ratios. In the following step, each matrix-cell in the airline distance matrix, including the column for the area outside the sketch area but excluding the row for the external area, is multiplied by the value in the corresponding row and the local streets column of the distance ratios matrix. This produces the local streets distance matrix except the row for the external area. This row is produced as the transpose of the external area column. The result is a local street miles matrix with the same dimensions as the airline distance matrix. Matrices for arterial and freeway distance are produced similarly. The three roadway distance matrices will provide cell-to-cell and cell-to-external-area mileage for local street, arterial, and freeway travel. Subsequently, the values in these matrices are multiplied by the numbers of trips in the corresponding matrix-cells of the total trip table to calculate roadway VMT. relationships. For enhancement purposes, the trip length matrices can be factored by the adjustment matrix derived from the selected research findings on land-use/travel demand
Vehicle Hours of Travel and Delay
Vehicle hours of travel (VHT) are calculated from vehicle miles (VMT), based on national research in the Texas Transportation Institute (TTI) Urban Mobility Study. 70 urban areas yields the following equations: VF VA Where: VF VA
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= =
77.5 - 29.3 * RCI ®-square = 0.79, t = 15.8) 34.5 - 5.3 * RCI ®-square = 0.32, t = 5.6)
= =
Average peak period freeway speed Average peak period arterial speed
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RCI
=
Roadway Congestion INDEX = ((Freeway VMT/Freeway Lane Miles) * Freeway VMT + (Arterial VMT/Arterial Lane Miles) * Arterial VMT) / (13,000 * Freeway VMT + 5,000 * Arterial VMT)
In the above formulas, arterial VMT and freeway VMT both represent peak hour vehicle miles on the respective systems. The peak hour VMTs are calculated from average daily VMT computed in previous sections by use of the following factors from NCHRP 365:
Urban Area Size 50,000 – 199,999 200,000 and above
Peak Hour VMT % of Daily 9% 9.5%
The resulting speeds are divided into the VMT estimates to obtain VHT estimates. Vehicle hours of delay (VHD) are calculated by comparing the resulting congestion-influenced VHT estimates to freeflow VHT (derived by assuming free-flow speeds of 60 mph for freeways and 35 mph for arterials). The difference between congestion-influenced VHT and free-flow VHT is the study area’s VHD. The above calculations can be calibrated to match the user’s perception of congestion and delay. The calculated change in highway speed from the TTI formula is then used to estimate the future change from the user’s perception of the base year congestion level. For example, if the TTI VF for the base year is 39 mph (corresponding to the user’s 36.5 estimate) and the VF for the future case is estimated to be 30 mph, then the future freeway speed, calibrated for user perception, would be: Calibrated Future VF = 30/39 * (36.5) mph A similar process can be applied for the user’s perception of the condition of the arterial street system to calibrate the future VA estimate used for VHT and VHD. Trip length calculations (VMT) include local street travel within the sketch study area. Like most four-step models, DSS assumes that local collector and neighborhood streets are uncongested.
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Appendix C ITM INTERFACE
This appendix describes the general modeling sequence that will be followed when the CCMPO ITM software is used in tandem with the DSS. Use of ITM with DSS will require CCMPO and/or CCRPC cooperation and staff assistance. Use of ITM also necessitates a countywide sketch boundary because that is the only geographic scope that ITM can model. Detailed information about ITM is available in its user manual under separate cover.
Operating ITM Through the DSS
ITM is designed as a stand-alone Windows software package. As such, it provides access through menu items that in turn load dialog boxes. All of the input and output information required to perform model runs in ITM are stored in files. When performing “multiple time step” runs, a single file (*.DTS) is used to manage all the files in the run. ITM can be executed from any other software package by launching ITM with the *.DTS file as a command line argument. This causes ITM to display its window and automatically launch a multiple time step run. The process of running the integrated DSS-ITM system will use the ITM DTS launching functionality. After DSS has generated a land-use file, it will launch ITM and pass a DTS file that specifies, among other things, the name of the land-use file. The DSS will then wait for ITM to finish. When ITM has completed its run, the DSS will use several ITM outputs, along with other information, to build a new land-use file. This process of DSS-ITM iteration will continue for the specified number of “time steps.” From the user’s perspective, all the files necessary to perform a “run” will need to be prepared in advance. Once launched, there will be no additional user requirements until the entire model run has finished.
Modeling Process When Using the ITM Interface
In the modeling process, steps 1.1 through 1.2 are required by the user. Step 1.3 is optional and steps 1.4 through 6 are performed by the model during the run process. 1. DSS Sketch Setup.
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1.1 1.2
Select the option to use the ITM interface. Develop a forecast sketch as usual: 1.2.1 1.2.2 Enter required and optional shapefiles. Define a sketch boundary. The sketch boundary in a DSS sketch that will be using the ITM interface must be the entire county. Enter the user defined parameters.
1.2.3 1.3
Enter parameters required to use the interface: 1.3.1 Coefficients for peak hourly to daily values. By default all ITM per hour to DSS per day coefficients are set to 10. These values can be changed by editing the tblITMPerDayFactor table in the SGDB2000.mdb database. Street type cost and filter size parameters. The default values for the grid smoothing and filter are contained in the tblSettingsITMtable table in the GrowthX.mdb database. Editing the values in this table will be reflected in any new sketch. To edit values in an existing sketch or to limit the change to a single sketch, edit the table in the local sketch copy of GrowthX.mdb. The local copy will be named GrowthN.mdb and will reside in the SketchN folder where N corresponds to the sketch number.
1.3.2
1.4
Export base year DSS data: 1.4.1 Aggregate the cell level DU/emp data up to the TAZ level. 1.4.1.1 1.4.1.2 For each TAZ, select all cells that intersect the cell. Based upon the proportion of the cell that resides in the TAZ, add the cells dwelling unit and employee count to the TAZ totals.
1.4.2
Write out a text file containing TAZ level land-use data for the sketch area. (Data Files 1.1)
For the first time-step, the current year DSS data will serve as the baseline land-use data in the ITM. For subsequent time-steps in future years, the ITM land use will equal the TAZ-specific growth distributed by the DSS plus the baseline land-use data.
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2.
ITM 2.1 2.2 2.3 Output DSS current year land-use data into ITM. Run ITM for the base year performing necessary quality assurance checks. Export base year ITM results: 2.3.1 Summary results file (Data Files 2.1). The summary results are reported as indicators by DSS. 2.3.2 TAZ matrix files (Data Files 2.2). The TAZ matrix files are used to calculate the CELL-to-TAZ composite utility indexes used by the growth allocation as well as indicators. 2.3.3 Street Link Shapefile (Data 2.3). The street link shapefile is used to calculate the adjustments to the CELL-toTAZ origin-destination travel accessibility scores.
3.
DSS Growth Allocation. 3.1 3.2 Compute travel accessibilities and attractiveness (see Appendix A). Allocate future growth based upon attractiveness.
4. 5. 6.
Output interval year DSS data into ITM. Repeat steps 2 – 4 for each interval up through the horizon year. Summarize indicator results.
Data Files
1. DSS Outputs for Input to ITM.
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1.1
Land-use (Grid). 1.1.1 For the base year and each interval year, export a TAZ summary text from DSS for import into ITM. For each TAZ, the text file will contain: sf dwelling units, mf dwelling units, retail employees, service employees, other employees.
2.
ITM Outputs for Input to DSS – all numbers are peak p.m. hour. The ITM output files are described in the ITM manual along with ITM file naming convention. 2.1 Summary Results: 2.1.1 2.1.2 2.1.3 2.1.4. 2.1.5. 2.1.6. 2.1.7 2.1.8 2.1.9 2.1.10 2.1.11 2.1.12 2.2 Peak hour person trips by mode Peak hour person hours traveled Peak hour vehicle miles traveled Peak hour vehicle hours traveled Peak hour person hours of delay (auto) Peak hour person hours of delay (bus & rail) Peak hour single-occupant vehicle mode share Peak hour auto passenger mode share Peak hour bus transit mode share Peak hour rail transit mode share Peak hour walk/bike mode share Peak hour average trip length
TAZ-to-TAZ Results: 2.2.1 2.2.2 2.2.3 Peak hour person trips by mode Peak hour auto distance Peak hour auto time
2.3
Street Shapefile-Linkfile Results: 2.3.1 2.3.2 2.3.3 2.3.4 Peak hour corridor travel times (corridor id – travel time) Peak hour roadway volumes Peak hour roadway level of service Peak hour roadway volume/capacity ratio
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