C. 2020 Forecast of State and Federal Revenues
I I ENDIX FOR THE PIN:ELLAS COUNTY ME’I’ROPOLITAN AREA LONG ~RANGE PLAN t,, ~ .... ~’-~ ..... ~ "" J I: DA I E 2020 10RECAST()F S 1,AI E AND FEDERAL REVENUES FOR STA’£E’WIDE ANI) .... I R()I. OLI I AN PLANS ME"
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.APPENDilX. FOR THE METii~.OPOLITA.N ILONG RANGE PL.AN UPDATE 2020 F()REC’AST UPIDA"rE OF STATE ANI) FEDERAL IREVENUES FOR STATEWIDE AN]I)-METR:OPOI:.3TAIN PLAINS Overview
This appendix documents the current Florida Depa:rtment of Transportation (FDOT) forecast ol;state and federal ~ansportatu::m revermes through 2025. Estimates of limding for ma~of state programs for this. rneu’opolitan area and Florida are included,’ The forecast serves as a guide :t0r de:veloping cost feasible long range plans for Florida and its metropolitan areas. Background The Intermodal Surl!ace ’l"rar~sportatiori Efficiency Act of 1991 (I.STEA) ~provided the impetus to enha,nce the cooperatiw: relationship between FD(YI’ and metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) in planning for and providing transportNion, facilities and services. The 2020 Florida Ti:ans~portation Plan (FTP), updated with the assistance of Florida’s 25 MPOs and other mmsportation parthers, establishecl long range goals and program emphases lbr the expenditure af state and federal funds expected fi~o.m curre.ttt revenue sources
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As part of the F’I’P updated, the Department has dew:.~lope, d a new long ]:mtge revenue :[brecasl. The fbrecast is based tlpol.l recent f~deral and legislation (e.g., "l"ranspo~Xation Equity Act for the 2ts~ Century, Mobility 2000), changes in 1Set.ors affecting state revenue sources (e.g., population growth rates)and current policies, This inlbmmtion will be used tbr the updates of metropolitan i~lans and the Florida Intrastate Highway System t;ost Feasible Plm~.
] "l’l teIll
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This appendix is intended to provide the public with clear documcntation of the state and federal financial issues related to each MPO plan and to facilitate reconciliation of statewide and metropolitan plans. This appendix does not address financial issues related to lhnds that do not "flow fl~rough" the state work program hfformalion on financial issues related to local and regional revenue sources -- what those resources are a, nd how the met:rol::)olil:an areas plan to spend them -- is corrtairled in other documentatio.n of t:he metro~politan plan.
For a complet~ explm’mti.on of the statewkle forecast, please re:l!~r to "li/evenue Forecast Handbook: 2020 R.ew~mm Foredast Update" (February
0 01 ).
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The appe~ ~dix describes I~1~ ~w the state, wide 2,020 Regenue Forecast Update was dew:loped. Also, metropoli:tan estin:ta:tes are identified .[i:~r rng~ior 177)OT programs fl~at expand the ca pacity of existi,~g transportation systems, which are :ml:~rred to as "capacit.y programs" in this document. "m.etropolitai~ estimates" are the share of the state capacity programs thai ~ure planned tbr this metropolitan area. The:y c, an be used to l::und planned impro veto ents t o th e m ~j or el e m e tits o f the gallspo rtation sy s tern: lfigh.ways, transit, aviation, rail, and intermodal access. This appendix also inclu.des estimates of funds required .t~r oth.er FDOT programs designed to support, operate, and maintain tlm: state transportation system. Tl~.e FDOT hag set aside :st.tl]ici.etlt fimds in ~he 2020 Revenue Forecasl l Jpdate for these programs. referred to as "non-capacity programs" in. this docu:ment:, to meet statewide o[~jectives and program needs in all metropolitan and llon-rlletropolitan areas. Fundirlg for fl3ese programs is .1"1o[ included in the men’opolitan estima/es
bli:.O,, in air quality maintenance areas must adopt .new long 2 .[..ccembet range p{a:ns by )’ ’" " ~" 2001. The updated 2()20 Revemm [:;’orecas~ has been prepared to provide int:.brmat:io.tt needed by these MPOs.
The 2020 Revenue Forecast Upda:te included prog ram estimates. :~i::~:~:’ the exper~diture of state and federal funds expected fi"om ct.:~rrei:l.t revellt.l.e soglrees (e.g., lleW revmme sources we:re :[~!;~i added).. The forecast estimated revenues from :t~deral, state, and .[ uln.l.lls.~, sources that are included in the I)epartment’s 5-Year Work Program. The ~brecast did not estimate revenue firom other sc urc:~.,~" (i.e., local govemmenUauth.ority tax.es, t:~es, and bond proceeds; priva:l:e sector participation; and i:nnovative :l[~i:tla:rl.ce sources).
"1 "l:~e: :fb re c as t: o f fu.:ndi n g Ievels tbr FDOT programs was d e velop e d based on the Program and Resource Plan (PRP) for :fiscal years 2001-2009. Ann:ual estimates of funding levels through fiscal year 2~i)25 were based on continuing policies reflected in the 2(101-2009 PRP. The I)epartment’s Executive Board revi.ewed Long range revenue [:orecasts assist in determining which needed an.d ap[:)roved the program funding levels.
transportation improvements are financially feasible and identifying funding priorities, As directed by FDOT poli6y, the Department has placed primary emptmsis on sa.tk~ty and preservation by first providing adequate funding in the 2020 Revenue Forecast to meet established goals and o~iectives in these important areas. Remaining t~mdmg has.then been planned for new or expanded statewide, metropolitan/region.al, and local ti~ci.lities and services (i.e., capacity programs). As we move i:nl:~ the 21st Cer~tury, safety and preserw~tion will con.tinue to be emphasized.
The estinm.tes tbr entire forecast period (fiscal yem:s 2000/01 through 2024/25) were expressed in fiscal year 2000 dollars. Revenue t~::~:t:ecasts estimate the value of money at the time :it: wi 11 be coIlected (e.g., 201. 0)and reflect :t:itture growth in .revemm a:nd ini:latio:u, sometimes referred to as "current" or "year of receipt"
a: "tt),e :l:bllow ing MPOs in air quality maintenance areas nmst adopt new plans by 2001 : Jacl~:so~:tvilie, 13toward Cotlrlty, Pahn 13each Cotmty, .MiamM3ade
C o u.n t:y, Hil I s bo ro u gl~ C o un ty, an d P in el.las Co u~ty. The MPOs in l./e:rn a n d o a:ud P.aSco Cotmt[es also a.re updating their plans for regiotl.al co:ns:[ste~tcy with
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dollars. Since t’he costs of transportati0n:projects increase over time, the l)epartmen.t intlates pr~iect costs to develop a cosV feasible Work Pi’ogram. Due t0 difficulties encount:ered ipreviously inflating project costs to matdl the metr0politar~
estimates and other concerns, the FDOT agreed to deflate, the reverme forecast. As a result, all amounts included in the draft: ti~recast are deflated and expressed in fiscal year 2()00 dollars.
Capacity Programs
l?or the updated forecast, FI)OT major programs were grouped into two general categories: capacity programs and non.-capacity programs. Capacity prograrns include ead~ major FD()T prograln that expands the capacity of existing transportation systems highwws, transit). Non-capacity programs include the remaining FI)()T programs that are designed to su:pport, operate, and maintain the state t ratls[x:}rtatio n sy stem (e. g., res urfacing I. Table 1 includes a briefdescription of each m~jor capa.ci.ty program and the linkage to the program categories used in the PRP. The capacity p:rograms are also grouped in re.l.ationst:dp to the 2020 FTP g o a l s: Eco~aom:ic C o~i~petitiveness; a:nd Quail ty o f L The Capacity programs that sup~port the Economic Competitiver~ess Goal ~e Floi:ida Intrastate Highway System consmtction! right-.of:way, aviation, rail, intemmdal access, and seaport development. The c@aci.ty programs that m..q:~port the Quality o:fI..,i:t:~ Goal are oth.er at~erials construction/right.<~ f:.-way and transit. Table 2 identifies the statewide estimates t!br tl:le programs i.n the 2020 Revem,e Forecast Update. About $94 billion is fbrecast fbr the entire state trartsportation :program throt~gtl 2025, about $45 billion (48%) is :R~recast :for the capacity programs,
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the Major (~al,mc~ty Pr(,grams Included m the 2020 Revenue Forecast Update Corresponding~ Program (,’ategories in the I.~rogram and. Resource Plan (PRP) Economic Competiliveness: 2020 Revenue Forecast Programs PRP Program Categories
Quality of l.Afe: 2021t Revenue Forecast
PRP Program Categories
Tra£fic Operadons Co:nstruction County Transportat:ion Programs
Eco]lo:mic I)evelop.menl:
Interstate (.;onsm.ictmr~ Ttm, pike Consmmdon al]d associated rig[it of way on the hltrasmte Other hrtrastate Col:tSfftlction I t ighway Syst.ern (e.g., lrlterstate, the Ttlrrlpike, other Toll Facilities Revolving l’rust lqmd toll roads, other faeflh:ies designed to serve interstam lmrastate ROW and regional commerce). lmrastate adwtnce (Jorrldor Acquisition ..A..:.v_{~t..i.!2!).- Financial and tedmical assistance Airport I [I]prove[Htffl! Florida’s airports in the areas of sa]ety, capaci.ty Land Acquisition improve re its, larld acqt isition, planning, econom Platlnhlg development, and preservation l)is_cretionary Capac:ity
] tllprovelllg]l[8
Constrtmtion. improve:ments, and associated right off way on State Highway System roadwa3 s not designated as part ofFH"IS. I.he program also includes fimding ibr the Ecormnfic l)evelopment program, the Courtty Incentive (}rant Program, and the
..... nlall (..2otlnty Outreach Program
..)t:her A:rl:erlal & Bridge ROW C)ther Arterial .Advance Corridor A.cqtdsition
...!..:{:.{~L!.s!jl - "l.’echniea] and operating/capital Transit Systems
{ISSlSl:~ll’lCe, [O [I’allSi[, paratrallsit, aiId
rMeshaHng systems.
_~{:~!.1. -, Rai! safety inspections, rail4fighway grade crossirlg sal!bty, acqtis, riot, of rail corridors, assistance in developing i:ntercity and commuter rail service, and rehabilitation of rail I’acil.ities.
Fixed Guideway PasSerlger Serwce RailfHigh.way Cross:ings Rail Rehabilitation
Transpoi:l:ation Disadvantaged Department: Transporl:ation I)isadvantaged Commission Ol:her 13lock Grants
facilities and acquisition of associated rights or way.
~!R£!;~i..[).g_v..@;}t}.[~]~}.[!:!I - Fu:nding lbr the develol:mlen( eaport Developme.n[. S of eligible deep waler ports, including such prqiect~ as,land acquisition, dredging, const ruction of storage fi~cilities and l:erx:rfinals, and acq.uisition o[:’ coFffai:rler cranes and odler equiprnent ttsed in moving C~L.FgO and i:)assenger&
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()ffk::e Of." Pcflk:.b,’ Pla.m:dng ......
::1 ......
hme 2()01
State and Federal Fut:tds from 2020 Reventte Forecast Update (Millions, 20005) Florida Department ):[ ].:ransl~ort:at.m
Economic Competitiveness
FIHS Construction/iROW Aviat:ion R~i.il Intermodal Access Seaport l)evelopment 1,4,() 1 162 415 ,357 577 149 422 354 565 153 2,999 424 353 559 ! 54
2,737 426 351
553 5’ 3,655 773
Quality of Life
Other Arterial Co.nstructior~/I~OW Transit
2,947 664
8,!00
2,861
’7,741
I otal Capacity ares ~ t .t og~. .... Total Capacity Prograrns
:2 Co[tlt,11,La~d rows so~t~etir~ies do r~ot eql.tal the totals d’ue to rot.md:hl.g.
of Mobility 2000 that allowed advancemenl: of highway construction’....... and I::o .t..:.;::l.~ry...fi:~rw;~:m:.h:~ of t.me:.q::~ended fimds fl’orn, prior fiscal years. .[.I q.I ........ ..x...~.~
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As the first step in preparing metropolitan estimates, the Department prepared distri.ct est:imates fbr the capacity programs from.the statewide fbrecast consistent with the ~provisions in.state and federal law, 1)istrict estimates were prepared based on relevant estimates of needs tk~r the tMk:~wing prognims: Statewide managed component.of t~he Florida ]ntersta:te High:way System; rail; and. aviation. Pursua:tlt to tSderal law, ttm transportation. management area (TMA) and congestion mitigation and ai’r quality (CMAQ) funds fi’om the other arteriats construction/right:of-way .program were distributed based on 1990 popula:tk:m. District estimates for the remainir~g programs were developed using the ctuxent statutory formttla.: ott~er Florida Illstrasta:te ttighway System construction/right-of-way; inte~=mdal access (net of Transportation Outreach program :[hnds); other arterials construction/right-ot~way (net of TMA, CMAQ, and enhancement fimds); enhancements; and transit program]’ FDOT districts develolped the melropo.litan estimates conaistent with district shares of the staewide tbrecast, adjusl:ed as needed to account fbr issues sud~, as metropolitan area boundaries (e.g, differences between county boundaries). The e~timates tbr this Metropolitan Area are i.n.ch.~ded in Table 3.
.IN o~-,(., apac~ty Prog~’ams Non:.capaci.ty programs, refer to FDOT programs designed to support and maintain the state trailsportatiort systetn: safety; resurt:.i!~cing; bridge; product support; operations and rnairttenance; and administratiorL Table 4 includes a description of each non .... capacity program and the l.inkage to the program categories used in the PR~P~ Metropo.litan estimates have not been developed for these programs.. Instead, the FDOT has included suflScient funding in the 2020 Revenue Forecast Update to meet the fi:)llowing statewide ot;~je(:tives:
Resurthcing program: Ensure that 80% of state highway system pavement meets Department standards; Bridge program: Ensure that 90% of FDOT,-mai:ntained bridges meet De~pm~ment standm:ds while keeping all FI)O’I".,. maintained, bridges open to the public Operations and maln, tenance program: Achieve 100% of acceptable maintenance condition standard on the state high:way system; Product Support: Reserve fimds ]:.br Product Support requii’edr to construct improvements (frorn the fbrecast’s capac:it:y ftmds) in eac]l di,strict aild metropolitan area; arid AdlllillistratiOIl: Administer the state tt’ar~sportatiot~ progra
3 ’I"l:te statutory fbt’mt~.la, is based on :50% population and 50% motor; collectiolls.
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AMOUN I S .AND CA ITEGORIES OF (,’,;.APACY["¥ PROGRAM ESTIMATES State and t!i’ederal iFunds from 2020 R.evenue Forec~lst Update (Millions, 2000 $) FI o rida D epar tree n tot; Trans p () r t a tio n iEstimates for: Pineilas County Metropolitan ,Area.
2020 Revenue Forecast Update
Capacity iProgram Emphasis Areas
FYs 07,-1() Subtota.l
FYs 11-1. 5 Subtotal
FYs 16-20 Subtotal
FYs 21-25 Subtotal
1.9 Year Total
Economic Compettt~.vel~,ess
) t~’I .....~ ....... HS (..~onst:ructlon/R(. W ’ Aviation Rail Intermodal Access 16., 7 0.. 0 7.4 21.. 1 0.0 11.5 " ~).), ~ I. ~: 9 34.8 267,3
0.0 13.9 21.3 0.0 15.8
80,4 (): 0 4K7
Quality of .L~te
Other Arterial Construction/t~OW~ Transit’ Total Ca.pacity Programs 166,9 27.7 35’7.9 187,0 34.6 256.8.
179.3 34.4
250.8
732.8 7l 31.4
).)3.3
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i
T.Atll..,tii; 4 l)escription of tile Major Non-Capacity Programs lnchided in ihe 2020 Revenue iForec~lst and Corresponding Program Categories in ttie Prograni and Resource Plan (PRP)
Safe.... I:ransportatmn and " ’ Management: Syst,m 2020 Revenue o~ ’ - < 1 ~ e~.ast Programs PRP Program Ca!egories
Other Programs: 2020 Revenue ~Forecast Programs PRP Prograln C:~ll:egories
~Lt.f_~!£ - Includes the Highway Highway Safety Safety Improvenmnt: Program, the Grants Traffic Safety Grant Programi Bicycle/Pedestrian Safety activities~ the Industrial Safety Program, and genera| safety issues m~. a Depmtment-~wide basis. .{t_.e_.s.3E!}a_:~jiS)g- Resurfacing of pavements on the St:ate Higl:~way System and local roads as provided by state law. .~::}..r..i.~!gf. - Repair and replace deficient bridges on the state highway system. In addition, 15% oft~deral bridge fimds must be expended off the federal highway system (i.e., on local government brMges not orl the state hig!rway system). Interstate Arterial and Freeway .)ft> System Turnl:)ike Repair- On Syslem Replace - OnSystem"’..... ’ Local BrMge Replacement Turnpike
Prel hMnary t!;ngil::m.e, rirtg ]I!):R~I!.!:!.~!L!I~ !::!EtI~.!I!!:! Plan:ning and engi~mering activitiesCOILS trllctk):ll Elagirmerirlg required to "p~:oduce" the Inspection Department’s products and servi.ces Rigltt of"Way Sul3port (i.eo, Capacity, Sal!~ty, Resu.rfaeing, Erl¥irol:lii:l el:it a.I Mitigation and Bridge prograrns). Materia.ls & Research Pla.nning Public Transporl:atior~ Operations
Activities to support and maintain trar~.sportation infi’astrtlctm’e once it is c;oristrucl:ed and in place.
Roul:ine Maintenance ’I’raft]c Et~gineering Toll ()peraI:io:ns :Motor Carri,er (..,,oi1:,I la,lc:e
Adm:inistrafton F:ixed (:: apil:al Otitlay
req.uired to pe.ri~)rm lhe fiscal, budget, personrml; executive (tirec.tJon, dooument reproduction, and contract fi.mctions. Also, includes the Fixed Capital Outlay ]?r’o~;~ram. which provides tk~r the m:~ proveme~:tt of non.-highway fixed ,,I,,,., ::’"’ 0::.g., ofl:’ices, maintenance .....’ C[, ’
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The l)epartment has reserved ftmds in ihe 2020 Revent~e Forecast 1..Ipdate to carry out :its respor~sibi.tities and achieve its objective.s fbr the non-capacity programs on the state highway ’.~ystem i.n each district and metropolitan area. FI)OT will develop statewide noncapacity needs cooperafivel.y with MP()s and local governments to ensure consistency, to the iIlaxil:~l.tlm ex:tent feasible, witlh MPO plans and local govemrnen.t compreher~sive plans.
Table 5 identifi,es the statewide estimates t:.br the non.-capacity programs, which are grouped in relationship to the related FTP Goals (Safe Transportation. and System ~Managernent:) a:nd by the other tn~jor support and maintenance programs. About $49 bfllJ0n (52% of total revenues) is forecast :l~:~r the non-capacity
program s.
TABLE 5 STATIi’,WH)|ii; li)lli2VEINUE FORECAST AMOUNTS AND CATEGORHi’~S OF NONoCAPACITY IPROGRAM ESTIMIATlgS State and Federal Funds from Revenue Forecast Update (Millions, 20t)0 $) Florida IIepar|ment o:fTransportafion Time Period
Non-Capacity Program Emphasis Areas
2001-05z
2006q0
20111.-115
2016-20
Totalz
" ~’ Safe ~i’. I ransportat~on/SystemManagement " .... " ,::’ * "
Safety ResurJ~}tc 13ridge Product Support Operai:ions & :Maintenan.ce Administration 233 2,:251. I.,11/64 4,578 2,852 1 !,601 . 23,718 18:3 1,866 774 3,218 2,800 .,~,401 17,861. 170 1. ,879 699 3,273 2,731 9,331 17,883 [ 156 1,934 674 3,173 2,730 595 9,262 17,362 [ :!4.2 1,989 647 3,1141 2,733 6112 9,264 17,005 884 ~ ( 19 ),,~ 3,859 17,383 13,847 ":’ 9r:~ 48,859 93,828
623 ................... ~ .................. ~ ~78
~I,ota.[ .Non-Capacity t: rograms"
oral Statewide Forecast.
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I Based on Adopted Work Program (July 1, 2000) and FD()T’s Legislative [~h, dget::’ ’ .....There are ~:e.latively more dollars in fiscal years 2001-2005 due to the Keqtmst. impact of Mobility 2000 that allowed advancernent of highway CO:flStr’L.iC~:~Ot~ p!:’(},i~X::,’l:8 a~.:t{t tO :arl’y.,f.lr~’ar’.ts ’ of unexpended fimds fi’om prior fiscal years. Colurrms and rows someth~:~es do riot: e:qt:ml the h::~tals due to rot:md:i.ng