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					    Commodities Daily Report
    Saturday | October 8, 2011

 Agricultural Commodities

 News & Market Highlights

 Guar Complex



 Oilseed Complex

 Spices Complex

Research Team
Badruddin - AVP Research                                                            Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst                                                
(022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6129                                                          (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6131

Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst                                              Anuj Choudhary - Research Associate                                          
(022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130                                                          (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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  Commodities Daily Report
   Saturday | October 8, 2011

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief                                                                    Market Highlights (% change)                          as on October 7, 2011
Higher cereal, pulses prices push food inflation to 9.41%
                                                                                                                  Last     Prev. day    WoW       MoM          YoY

Food inflation inched closer to the double digit mark in the third week of       Sensex                         16233        2.787     -2.788   -3.738      -20.1
September, even as non-food articles eased sharply. The annual WPI-              Nifty                           4888        2.878      -2.54     -3.48     #N/A
based inflation estimate for the week ended September 24 rose to 9.41            INR/$                          49.15       -0.385     0.368     6.593      11.21
per cent, up from the 9.13 per cent year-on-year growth recorded in the          Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl        82.98        4.142     1.023    -3.534      1.604
previous reported week, according to data released by the Ministry of            Comex Gold - $/oz
                                                                                                                 1635       -0.354     1.176    -12.59      22.54
Commerce and Industry on Friday. This was largely on account of
                                                                                                                                                   Source: Reuters
increases in the year-on-year inflation estimates for cereals, pulses and
vegetables. Food inflation had clocked in at 16.88 per cent in the               Coffee exports rise 41% in 2010-11
corresponding week of 2010. (Source: Business Line)
                                                                                 Aided by good domestic crop, favourable prices and robust demand from
Rain spread signals good kharif harvest, says IMD                                the international markets, India’s coffee exports jumped 41 % to 358,278
                                                                                 tonnes in the just-concluded coffee year, ended September. This is an all-
                                                                                 time high for Indian coffee. The previous crop year saw export of 253,715
A reasonably well-distributed rainfall during the just-concluded kharif
                                                                                 tonnes. In value terms, exporters earned 87% more at Rs. 4,794 crore,
season may favour good crop production in most parts of the country.
                                                                                 compared to Rs. 2,564 crore during the crop year-ended September
This is as per projections in the latest Agromet Advisory service bulletin
                                                                                 2010. The average price realisation rose 32 per cent to Rs. 1,33,804 a
of India Meteorological Department (IMD). The only exceptions to this
                                                                                 tonne in the October 2010 to September 2011 period, as against Rs.
outlook are the drought and flood-affected areas which found
                                                                                 1,01,058 during the corresponding period. (Source: Business Standard)
themselves at the receiving end of a varyingly truant monsoon during a
crucial mid-phase, the bulletin said. Recent showers reported from parts
of the country are favourable for sowing of Rabi crops. Farmers have             Sowing hope for flooded paddy farmers
been advised to undertake land preparation and sowing of crops once
the kharif harvest is over. Meanwhile, the southwest monsoon has                 Millions of farmers across eastern India, particularly in Orissa and West
withdrawn from most parts of northwest India, Gujarat and Madhya                 Bengal, are now more confident of facing the devastation that recurring
Pradesh. Mainly dry weather is likely to prevail except in Jammu and             floods cause to their standing crop. Thanks to a new rice variety,
Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Farmers in these regions              developed and released by the Cuttack-based Central Rice Research
have been advised to undertake harvesting of kharif rice, maize, bajra           Institute (CRRI), farmers in these calamityprone areas are getting more
and jowar and prepare field for sowing of Rabi crops with residual soil          adept on handling the crisis. For, the crop is unaffected even if under
moisture. Good rainfall received during last week of September in Bihar,         water for two weeks. Named after gold, Swarna Sub1 was released in
Jharkhand and West Bengal may favour grain filling of kharif rice in these       2009. Today, over two years, the variety has become one of the most
regions. This rain will also be helpful for sowing of Rabi crops. (Source:       sought seeds in the region. Many experts believe encouragement to the
Business Line)                                                                   variety’s use would alter the pattern of farming in flood-prone areas. Not
                                                                                 only can it withstand submergence under full water for up to 15 days; as
Forex reserves decline by $1.2 b to $311.48 b                                    the water recedes, new shoots again come up. Overall, the crop gives an
                                                                                 average yield of around 3.5 tonnes per hectare. (Source: Economic Times)
India's foreign exchange reserves declined by $1.225 billion to $311.482
billion in the week ended September 30, according to Reserve Bank of             Talks to contain fertiliser prices
India's ‘Weekly Statistical Supplement'. In the previous week ended
September 23, India's foreign exchange reserves declined by $4.056               Concerned over doubling of fertiliser prices within a year, the
billion to $312.707 billion. The reserves declined due to a fall of $1.235       government discussed ways to control the input cost of farm nutrients,
billion in the country's foreign currency assets to $275.699 billion. (Source:   ahead of Rabi (winter) crop season. The Cabinet Secretary, Mr Ajit Kumar
Business Line)                                                                   Seth, held discussions with the Fertiliser Secretary, Mr Sutanu Behuria on
                                                                                 the issue and reviewed the situation, sources said. (Source: Business Line)
Delayed rain, dip in temperature to boost wheat sowing
                                                                                 Core inflation build-up could prompt more rate hikes
Prolonged monsoon rains and a decline in temperature in Uttar Pradesh,
Punjab and Haryana, regarded as the country’s grain bowl, will help              If the monetary policy tightening initiated by the RBI since early last year
timely sowing of wheat, officials said on Friday. Normal date of                 was aimed at limiting the spread of input cost pressures to the broader
withdrawal of monsoon from Punjab and Haryana is September 15, but               economy, the measures seem to have been less than adequate. After a
this year it was delayed to September 26, the weather office said.               brief hiatus late last year, when the contribution of manufactured
“Monsoon usually returns by mid-September, but this year extended rain           products to the overall headline inflation dipped from levels in the earlier
spell of monsoon was recorded in Punjab and Haryana,” AK Dogra,                  months, the trend has reversed sharply. Since the beginning of this year,
assistant meteorologist with India Meteorological Department,                    the contribution of manufactured non-food items to overall inflation has
Chandigarh, told Reuters. “Night temperatures in Punjab and Haryana,             risen perceptibly. This surge in the manufactured non-food inflation, or
which have been in the range of 21-24 degree celsius during past week,           core inflation, effectively signals the cascading of input cost pressures
have started falling,” he added. “Extended spell of monsoon rains,               despite frantic attempts by the central bank to cool down prices by way
followed by gradual drop in minimum temperatures across the region               of the 12 repo rate hikes since March last year. (Source: Business Line)
will help in timely sowing and proper germination of wheat,” said CP
Srivastava, deputy director with the Uttar Pradesh Agriculture
Department. (Source: Financial Express)

  Commodities Daily Report
  Saturday | October 8, 2011

Agricultural Commodities
Guar Complex                                                               Market Highlights                                           as on October 7, 2011
                                                                                                                                           % change
Guar seed futures settled 2.66% higher on Friday due to short coverings                             Unit         Last       Prev day    WoW        MoM         YoY
by the market participants. Subdued overseas demand and expectations
                                                                            Guar Seed Spot-                          4264       0.19     -6.24      -1.88     114.07
of fresh arrivals are expected to pressurize prices.
                                                                            NCDEX (Jodhpur)         Rs/qtl

Global uncertainties have raised the concerns over exports of Guar gum      Guar Seed- NCDEX                         4360       2.66     -1.58      -2.40     115.63
in the year 2011-12, which had crossed 4 lakh tonnes in the fiscal year     Oct'11 Futures          Rs/qtl
2010-11.                                                                    Guar Gum Spot-                      13370           0.61     -7.53      -3.61     179.36
                                                                            NCDEX (Jodhpur)         Rs/qtl
The area under Guar cultivation in Rajasthan this season stands at 2.9      Guar Gum- NCDEX                     13100          -1.31     -5.45      -5.57     178.78
million hectares, compared to 3 million hectares last season. In Haryana    Oct'11 Futures          Rs/qtl
the area under Guar has come down from 256,000 hectares registered                                                                                 Source: Reuters
last year to 215,000 hectares this year. (Source: Business Standard)

Production & Exports                                                       Technical Chart - Guar Seed                        NCDEX October contract
According to the first advance estimates, Guar seed output in Rajasthan
is estimated at 11.36 lakh tonnes for 2011-12 season compared to 15.46
lakh tonnes in 2010-11. Production of Guar in Haryana and Gujarat is
expected to be 0.2 lakh tonnes and 0.065 lakh tonnes respectively in

According to Agriculture and Processed Food Products Export
Development Authority, Indian Guar gum exports for the period April-
March 2010-11 surged by 84% and stood at 4,03,007 tonnes as
compared to 2,18,473 tonnes during the last year.

In the FY 2011-12 export demand of Guar gum continued to remain
higher with exports of 30,816 tonnes in the month of April 2011, up 51 %
as compared with 20,376 tonnes in 2010-11 season.

                                                                                                                                                  Source: Telequote
Guar prices in the intraday may remain under pressure on expectations
of commencement of fresh arrivals in the domestic mandis. Further,
subdued export demand may pressurize prices.                               Technical Outlook                                    valid for October 8, 2011

If global uncertainty continues, then the exports might get hampered in     Contract                    Unit                 Support             Resistance
the coming months thereby putting downside pressure on the prices.
                                                                            Guar Seed Nov Futures          Rs./qtl           4015-4070           4170-4200

Improvement in the area covered under Guar in Rajasthan and thereby         Guar Gum Nov Futures         Rs./qtl             12750-12900         13350-13500
hopes of better production may further put downside pressurize on the
Guar prices.

 Commodities Daily Report
 Saturday | October 8, 2011

Agricultural Commodities
Pulses                                                                      Market Highlights                                  as on October 7, 2011
Chana futures continued to trade lower due to selling by the market                                                                % change
participants and settled 0.59% on Friday. Imposition of stock limits in                            Unit      Last   Prev day      WoW     MoM           YoY
Rajasthan is restricting prices from trading higher. Government’s            Chana Spot - NCDEX              3100    -3.54        -5.76    -6.06       34.78
contingency plan for additional production of pulses in Rabi 2011-12 to      (Delhi)              Rs/qtl
overcome the losses of Kharif Pulses also supported the bearish market       Chana- NCDEX                    3012     -0.59        -7.44      -8.89    31.93
sentiments.                                                                  Oct'11 Futures       Rs/qtl
                                                                                                                                           Source: Reuters
In order to bring down prices and increase its availability ahead of the
sowing season, the Rajasthan government Wednesday set the stock limit
on Chana separately from other pulses. The total pulses stock limits has
been raised to 550 tn from current 500 tn for wholesalers. Chana will       Technical Chart - Chana                       NCDEX October contract
have separate stock limit of 250 tn and pulses other than Chana will have
a limit of 300 tn.

In the contingency plan, Government has targeted to achieve an
additional production of 2.78 million tonnes during the ensuing Rabi
season through area expansion and productivity enhancement.
Additional allocation of Rs. 80 crore has been made for this purpose
under NFSM- Pulses program.

Pulses Imports
As per the import data of Ministry of Commerce, during the first quarter
of the current fiscal, the pulses import went up by 92 percent to 7.19
lakh tonnes during April-June 2011 as compared to 3.74 lakh tonnes in
corresponding period last year.

Out of the six key pulses, imports of Tur (pigeon pea) and peas rose by                                                                    Source: Telequote
286 and 211 percent to 0.54 and 5.26 lakh tonnes in April-June 2011
from 0.14 and 1.69 lakh tonnes same period last year. While the import
of moong/urad and lentils are down by 35 % and 19 % to 0.88 and 0.38
lakh tones respectively as compared to the 1.36 and 0.47 lakh tones in      Technical Outlook                          valid for October 8, 2011
corresponding period of pervious year.
                                                                             Contract                 Unit           Support           Resistance
Sowing progress and Production                                               Chana Nov Futures        Rs./qtl        3050-3110         3220-3245
According to the first advance estimates, Kharif Pulses output for 2011-
12 season is down by 9.6% at 6.43 mt. Tur output estimates is up by
0.35% while moong & Urad is down by 21% & 16% respectively.

Kharif Pulses sowing is down by 9% as on 23rd September, 2011. 109.41
lakh ha has been covered against 120.3 lakh ha in the last year. Chana
production estimates stood at 8.25 million tonnes up 10.3% compared to
last year. Prospect for Rabi sowing is also higher due to better soil
moisture levels. Planning Commission has estimated that the demand for
pulses during 2011-12 is 19.11 million tonne.

Chana prices in the intraday are likely decline further as stockiest in
Rajasthan are expected to liquidate the stocks which they are holding
beyond 250 metric tonnes. Further, imposition of special margin on long
side may restrict building of fresh buying positions to some extent.

Prospects for Rabi Pulses like Chana and Peas are better owing to better
soil moisture levels, which may increase the overall output in 2011-12
season may put downside pressure on the prices in the long term.

 Commodities Daily Report
 Saturday | October 8, 2011

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar                                                                          Market Highlights                                         as on October 7, 2011
Sugar futures traded range bound throughout the day and settled                                                                  % Change
marginally higher by 0.18% on Friday due to lackluster trades at the                                 Unit           Last    Prev. day WoW            MoM         YoY
domestic markets. Sufficient supplies in the domestic are restricting         Sugar Spot- NCDEX
prices from trading higher.                                                   (Kolkata)             Rs/qtl     3020          -0.33         0.89      0.67        5.04

                                                                              Sugar M- NCDEX
The government has issued export permits for 4.21 lakh tonnes of sugar,                                        2730          0.18          0.07     -0.73        #N/A
                                                                              Oct'11 Futures        Rs/qtl
of the total five lakh tonnes of shipments that it allowed in August 2011.
Last week, the food ministry had given an extension of 15 days to apply                                                                                Source: Reuters
for export release order to those sugar mills who are sourcing the
sweetener from other factories. The deadline had expired on October 3,         International Prices                                       as on October 7, 2011
2011 and now the last date for submitting application is October 18,
                                                                                                                                    % Change
2011. (Source: Business Standard)
                                                                                                    Unit       Last        Prev day    WoW          MoM           YoY

Cooperative Sugar body has urged for several proposals amidst higher          Sugar No 5- Liffe-               653.7        1.87          -1.45     -13.49       -6.76
Sugar output estimates. They are as under;                                    Dec'11 Futures       $/tonne
--To create 2 mt of buffer stocks                                                                             559.11        2.11          -4.48     -11.44       -8.51
                                                                              Sugar No 11-ICE
--To allow exports up to 4 mt in 2011-12                                      Mar'11 Futures       $/tonne
-- Reiterates demand to decontrol sugar sector                                                                                                        Source: Reuters

Higher exports and buffer stock would stabilize the domestic market and
ensure that sugar factories get reasonable realisation. Prof. K.V. Thomas,
                                                                               Technical Chart - Sugar                                   NCDEX October contract
Minister for Consumer Affairs, has said that the Government will take
appropriate steps to maintain price stability so as to ensure that sugar
factories make fair realization

ICE Raw Sugar and Liffe White Sugar futures bounced back and settled
2.11% and 1.87% higher on reports that Sugar beet crop in U.S. will be
lower by 19%, thereby shrinking the stockpiles to 37 years low.

Domestic Sugar updates
India is expected to produce highest sugar output in last 4 years due to
higher area under cultivation amidst favorable weather. According to the
first advance estimates, Sugarcane production is estimated higher by
0.9% at 34.22 mt for the coming season 2011-12 starting October 1,
According to ISMA sugar production in UP and Maharashtra is projected
at 16 million tonnes in 2011-12. ISMA has projected sugar production at
                                                                                                                                                     Source: Telequote
26 million tonnes for 2011-12.

Global Sugar Updates                                                           Technical Outlook                                     valid for October 8, 2011
Brazil's main sugar industry group Unica showed production increasing in
the last two weeks of August. While sugar production since the season          Contract                      Unit              Support              Resistance
began in April is still 11% below last year, Unica didn't downgrade its
                                                                       th      Sugar Nov NCDEX Futures       Rs./qtl           2705-2715            2740-2750
production forecast again, leaving little momentum in the market. (15
Sept).                                                                         Sugar Nov MCX Futures         Rs./qtl            2710-2720           2755-2760

China, the world's largest sugar consumer, has imported 1.6 million tons
of sugar in the first 11 months of 2011, with preliminary data for the full
year likely to be issued around October 10. According to Kingsman
consultancy, 2011-12 world sugar production is estimated at 173.244
mmt, down from 176.339 mmt estimated in May. Consumption is pegged
at 164.083 mmt in 2011/12 against 165.764 mmt forecast earlier.

Sugar prices in the intraday are likely to gain further on robust demand in
the physical markets. We expect prices to gain by Rs 50-60 per qtl in the
current week.
From long term perspective, prices are expected to take cues from the
Sugar output estimates in the domestic market, change in government
policies with respect to exports and International Sugar prices, which
would be influenced by the supplies from Brazil and India and demand
from China.
  Commodities Daily Report
   Saturday | October 8, 2011

Agricultural Commodities                                                        Market Highlights                                                   as on October 7, 2011
                                                                                                                                     % Change
Soybean                                                                                                      Unit          Last      Prev day          WoW          MoM           YoY
NCDEX November Soybean futures ended slightly higher on account of             Soybean Spot- NCDEX                         2063          0.00           -3.37       -12.95        -0.82
short covering after continuous fall from last two weeks. Higher Oil           (Indore)                  Rs/qtl
                                                                               Soybean- NCDEX Oct'11                       2051          -0.15          -1.87       -13.91        -2.08
meal export figures for the month of September also provided support
                                                                               Futures                   Rs/qtl
to the bulls. India April-September Oil meal Exports 2.03 million tonnes
                                                                               Ref Soyaoil Spot-                        627.6            -0.08          -2.82       -4.58        24.64
as compared to 1.38 million tonnes. However, soy meal export declined
                                                                               NCDEX(Indore)             Rs/10 kgs
in the month of September, India September Soy meal Exports 225,921                                                        609           1.14           -0.83       -7.29        20.59
                                                                               Ref Soyaoil- NCDEX
tonnes as compared to 290,868 tonnes in the month of September last            Oct'11 Futures            Rs/10 kgs
year.                                                                                                                                                            Source: Reuters

 In their first production estimate of the year, Brazil officials pegged the                                                                              as on October 7, 2011
2011/12 soybean crop at 12.18 to 72.29 million tonnes as compared              International Prices          Unit             Last       Prev day        WoW            MoM        YoY
with last year’s record high 75.3 million tonnes. Overall all market           Soybean- CBOT-
                                                                               Nov'11 Futures          USc/ Bushel          1158          -0.47          -1.76          -17.91     0.50
sentiments is weak due to higher production estimates of domestic
soybean coupled with arrivals of fresh crop in Madhya Pradesh and              Soybean Oil - CBOT-
Maharashtra and Rajasthan. Soybean processors Association of India             Oct'11 Futures          USc/lbs              49.07          0.31          -1.76          -15.66     6.72
estimates 116.50 lakh tonnes soybean output this year against 101.2
lakh tonnes last year. Madhya Pradesh production estimates at 61.67                                                                                             Source: Reuters

lakh tonnes and 35.60 lakh tones for Maharashtra. Major mandis were             Crude Palm Oil                                                      as on October 7, 2011
remain closed on Thursday due to Dushehra.                                                                                            % Change
                                                                                                        Unit               Last       day      WoW                MoM            YoY
USDA’s weekly export sales released on October 06, 2011, which
                                                                               CPO-Bursa Malaysia -                        1158        -0.52   -1.80              -17.95         0.46
revealed that the soybean weekly export sales came in at 701,800
                                                                               Oct'11 Contract          MYR/Tonne
metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 40,000 for the next           CPO-MCX-Oct'11                              464.5         0.00          -3.23        -5.36         9.03
marketing year for a total of 741,800 which was near the high end of           Futures                  Rs/10 kg
trade expectations. Net meal sales came in showing cancellations of                                                                                              Source: Reuters

5,000 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 285,500 for the          RM Seed                                                            as on October 7, 2011
next marketing year for a total of 280,500 which was well above trade                                                             Prev
                                                                                                        Unit        Last          day        WoW                MoM              YoY
expectations. Net oil sales came in showing cancellations of 100 metric
                                                                               RM Seed Spot-           Rs/qtl       2833          0.53       -2.33              -3.00            6.04
tonnes for the current marketing year and 200 for the next marketing
                                                                               NCDEX(Jaipur)           kgs
year for a total of 100 which was well below trade expectations.
                                                                               RM Seed- NCDEX          Rs/qtl       2782          3.08          0.32            -4.10            0.74
                                                                               Oct'11 Futures          kgs
Mustard Seed                                                                                                                                                   Source: Reuters
NCDEX October RM Seed futures traded higher on account of short
covering after sharp fall in the last 4-5 trading session. Sharp rise of RM
                                                                                Technical Chart –Soy Bean                                    NCDEX October contract
Seed oil meal in the month of September also provided support to the
bulls India September Rapeseed Meal Exports 124,234 tonnes as
compared to 40,390 tonnes in September 2010.

Refine Soy Oil
NCDEX October Refined Soy oil futures traded lower on account of
weak overseas market. Better carry over stock of RM seed and arrivals
of fresh crop of kharif oilseeds provided support to the bears. Lower
demand of crude palm oil coupled with higher production and stocks of
Palm oil as weak global market sentiments are in favour of bears.

Malaysian Palm Oil Exports                                                                                                                                         Source: Telequote
As per SGS (a cargo surveyor), Malaysia’s palm oil exports in the month         Technical Outlook                                                valid for October 8, 2011
of September was 1.51 million tonnes, fell 7.1% as compared to
previous month.                                                                  Contract                           Unit                  Support                  Resistance
                                                                                 Soy Oil Nov NCDEX Futures          Rs./qtl               577-579                  586-588
Outlook                                                                          Soybean NCDEX Nov Futures          Rs./qtl               2040-2055                2100-2115
Oilseed complex are expected to trade range bound with mixed
sentiments. Higher production estimates of kharif oilseeds coupled               RM Seed NCDEX Nov Futures          Rs./qtl               2805-2820                2890- 2910
with fresh arrivals of soybean in major mandis and weakness in                   CPO MCX Nov Futures                Rs./qtl               456-458                  464-466
overseas market as lower global demand are in favor of bears.
However, price may recover from low on account of short covering and
value buying at lower levels.
  Commodities Daily Report
   Saturday | October 8, 2011

Agricultural Commodities                                                        Market Highlights                               as on October 7, 2011
                                                                                                                 % Change
                                                                                                Unit      Last   Prev day     WoW         MoM        YoY
Black Pepper                                                                    Pepper Spot-             35134     0.32       1.09        9.29      88.62
Spot black pepper prices and Futures settled 0.32% and 0.78% higher on          NCDEX (Kochi)   Rs/qtl
expectation of demand from the domestic and overseas buyers on                  Pepper-
Friday. Supply squeeze in the domestic and global markets are providing         NCDEX Oct'11             36120     0.78        2.06       9.41      96.22
support to the prices.                                                          Futures         Rs/qtl
                                                                                                                                             Source: Reuters
There are reports of fresh enquiries of Pepper from Vietnam and Russia
in India. Further, demand from domestic stockists ahead of winter
season is seen supporting prices. On the other hand pepper producers
and stockiest in Kerala are holding on the stocks releasing only small          Technical Chart – Black Pepper                 NCDEX October contract

Vietnam has reportedly sold 1.08 lakh tonnes of pepper till September
30 2011. Buyers from Vietnam are therefore placing fresh orders in
India. Carryover stocks of pepper till commencement of fresh arrivals in
March with Vietnam are projected to be around 15,000 tonnes. Also,
Indonesia’s output is estimated lower. (Source: Pepper Trade Board)

Indian parity in the international market was at $8,000-8,150 a tonne and
remained competitive and was attracting overseas orders while Vietnam
550 Gl Brazil and Indonesian origin are being offered at $8,500 per tonne
$8,150 and $8,600 per tonne respectively.

Exports from the major countries
According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper during April 2011-
August 2011 stood at 8,750 tonnes as compared to 7,800 tonnes in 2010-
11, rise of 12%.                                                                                                                           Source: Telequote

According to International Pepper Community (IPC) exports of black
pepper from six major exporting nations during January – August 2011            Technical Outlook                            valid for October 8, 2011
stood at 1.73 lakh tonnes registering a decline of 5.46 percent compared
to 1.83 lakh tonnes in 2010. Exports from India, Vietnam and Malaysia           Contract                         Unit       Support         Resistance
posted an increase while Indonesia, Brazil and Srilanka registered a            Black Pepper NCDEX Nov Futures   Rs/qtl     36300-36500     37260-37400
decline in 2011.

Production and Arrivals
Arrivals of pepper in the domestic mandi on Friday stood at 16 tonnes
against offtakes of 20 tonnes while arrivals on Wednesday stood at 18
tonnes and offtakes at 19 tonnes.

Production of pepper in India in 2010-11 is projected to be 48 thousand
tonnes (according to the Spices Board) as compared to 50 thousand
tonnes last year. However, there are expectations that this estimate
would be lowered further on account of the disease attacks and erratic
rainfall in the major growing areas particularly Kerala and Karnataka.

According to IPC global output of Pepper for 2011 is expected to decline
by 6,500 tonnes to 3.10 lakh tonnes. Vietnam production of the spice is
expected to be same as that of previous year to 1.10 lakh tonnes. Pepper
production in Brazil stood around 27,000 tonnes in 2010-11 as compared
to 35,000 tonnes the previous year.

Pepper prices are expected to trade sideways to up due to demand from
the local stockiests and overseas buyers.
In the medium to long term (November to December), price trend
expected to remain firm as Vietnam the major producer and exporter has
limited stocks. Prices are also likely to take cues from stocks left in
domestic along with price quotes offered by Indonesia and Vietnam in
the international market for their pepper origins. Brazil fresh crop arrivals
will also determine the price trend in the above period.

   Commodities Daily Report
   Saturday | October 8, 2011

 Agricultural Commodities                                                   Market Highlights                                          as on October 7, 2011
                                                                                                                                             % Change
Jeera                                                                                                                       Prev
Jeera futures after falling by 5.41% from the high of Rs.15,449/qtl                                 Unit      Last          day       WoW          MoM             YoY
bounced back from the support levels and settled around upper freeze
                                                                           Jeera Spot-                       15200          -0.61      -1.71       -2.64          15.97
of 4%. Prices in spot markets however ended marginally down
                                                                           NCDEX(Unjha)            Rs/qtl
yesterday on account of dull trades at the domestic.
                                                                           Jeera- NCDEX Oct'11               14725          3.43       0.33        -5.26          13.31
Prices in the global markets of Indian origin are quoting around           Futures                 Rs/qtl
                                                                                                                                                         Source: Reuters
$3,450-3,500/tn while Syrian origin is quoting at $3,600-$3,500/tn

Production, Arrivals and Exports                                            Technical Chart – Jeera                                 NCDEX October contract
Arrivals in Unjha mandi stood around on 4000 bags (1 bag= 55 kgs) on
Friday 1000 bags lower than Wednesday while off takes were reported
at 3,000 bags on Friday.

Production of Jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan in 2011 was around 21
lakh bags and 7-8 lakh bags respectively. (Each bag weighs 55 kgs).
(Source: spot market traders).
According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera during April 2011-
August 2011 stood at 9,500 tonnes as compared to 15,700 tonnes in
2010-11, decline of 39%.

NCDEX October Jeera prices in the intraday may trade sideways to up
due to improved buying by the market participants at support levels.
Any fresh enquiries from the overseas buyers are likely to provide
                                                                                                                                                    Source: Telequote
support to the prices in the short term.

In medium to long term (November to December) Jeera prices will
                                                                            Market Highlights                                           as on October 7, 2011
depend on carryover stocks of Jeera with the stockists, sowing of jeera                                                                  % Change
in the chief growing areas of Gujrat and Rajasthan. Sowing of jeera will                                                Prev
commence in the end of October and sufficient soil moisture is likely                            Unit       Last        day          WoW        MoM             YoY
to aid farmers and thereby increase the probability of better              Turmeric Spot-                   5345        0.00         0.00        -9.34         -63.37
production. This is likely to cap gains in the long term.                  NCDEX (N'zmbad)       Rs/qtl
                                                                                                            5026        3.08         12.19       -2.18         -65.86
Turmeric                                                                   Turmeric- NCDEX
                                                                           Oct'11 Futures        Rs/qtl
Turmeric futures extended gains of the previous day and settled 3.08%
higher on Friday. Decline in the arrivals in the domestic mandi due to
Dassera holidays is supporting prices. Nizamabad mandi will reopen on       Technical Chart – Turmeric                              NCDEX October contract
Monday 10 October 2011.

Production, Arrivals and Exports
Arrivals in Erode mandi on Friday stood at 5,000 bags(each bag weighs

Turmeric production for the year 2011-12 is projected at 82 lakh bags
(1 bag= 70 kgs) compared to 69 lakh bags in 2010-11. However, area
covered under turmeric till 26 September, 2011 stood at 0.67 lakh ha
2.9% lower as compared to 0.69 lakh ha in the previous year. Area
covered under Turmeric in 2011-12 is however higher than the five
year average of 0.63 lakh hectares.
According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric during April
2011- August 2011 stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 24,000
tonnes in 2010-11, rise of 52%.                                                                                                                     Source: Telequote
Turmeric prices in the intraday may trade sideways to up due to fresh       Technical Outlook                                        valid for October 8, 2011
export enquiries at cheaper rates.
                                                                                                                     Unit           Support          Resistance
In the medium to long term (November to December) turmeric prices
                                                                           Jeera NCDEX Nov Futures                   Rs/qtl         14600-14720      15150-15240
will take cues from the turmeric stocks at the domestic market and
growth of the sown turmeric crop particularly in Nizamabad and             Turmeric NCDEX Nov Futures                Rs/qtl         4935-5000        5220-5270
Erode. Turmeric crop is in vegetative stage and is in good condition.


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