Docstoc

Chan

Document Sample
Chan Powered By Docstoc
					Internal Labor Migration in China:
Trends, Geographical Distribution and Policies


                Kam Wing Chan
                Department of Geography
                University of Washington
                         Seattle
                kwchan@u.washington.edu


                      January 2008
                  Wuhan:
  Share of Migrant Workers                 (Non-Hukou)
                  (2000 Census Data)

Industry                               % of employment
                                        in that industry
Manufacturing                                  43
Construction                                  56
Social Services                               50

Real Estate and Housing                       40

Wuhan City (7 city districts)                46
Urban recreation consumption
rose at 14% p.a in 1995-2005
         Topics
• Hukou System and Migration
  Statistics
• Migration Trends
• Geography
• Policies
    (The Household Registration System, 户口制度)

•   Formally set up in 1958
•   Divided population/society into two major types of households:
    rural and urban
•   Differential treatments of rural and urban residents
•   Controlled by the police and other govt departments
•   Basically an “internal passport system”
•   Currently, the system serves as a benefit eligibility system; a tool
    of institutional exclusion than controlling geographical mobility
•   The population of a city is divided into “local” and “outside”
    population.
Ad
MIGRANT CHILDREN FALL
  THROUGH THE CRACKS
      An unlicensed school in Beijing
Two types of internal migrants

• Hukou Migrants: migrants with local
  residency rights

• Non-hukou Migrant: migrants without
  local residency rights
  – also called: non-hukou population, or more
    generally, “floating population”
                  Wuhan:
Share of Non-Hukou Migrant Workers
                  (2000 Census Data)

Industry                               % of Employment

Manufacturing                                43
Construction                                 56
Social Services                              50

Real Estate and Housing                      40

Wuhan City (7 city districts)                46
Trends
       Migration Trends:
Floating Population, 1982-2003
                    (Estimates in Millions)
140

120

100

80

60

40

20

 0
      1985   1988     1992    1994     1997   1999   2003
                             Level of Urbanization, 1990-2005
                        45



                        40
% of Total Population




                        35



                        30



                        25



                        20
                         1990   1992   1994   1996   1998   2000   2002   2004
                                  Figure 3 Urban Growth and Migration Rates

                              7
Percent of Urban Population



                              6
                                                                          Urban Growth
                              5
                                                                          Rate
                              4                                           Urban Natural
                              3                                           Increase Rates
                                                                          Net Urban In-
                              2
                                                                          migration Rate
                              1
                              0                                          True rural-
                              1990          1995           2000          urban migration


                                                   Source: Chan and Hu (2003)
Geography
The 30 Largest Inter-provincial Migration Flows,
1995-2000
                       Policies
 0.70
        Interprovincial Inequality,
 0.65
        1990–2006
 0.60
                                Group 1
 0.55

 0.50

 0.45

 0.40
                                          Group 2
 0.35

 0.30
             CVdf
 0.25        CVdj

 0.20
                                    a



                                             b
  90




                  95




                                           01

                                           02

                                           03

                                           04

                                           05

                                           06
                                 00



                                          00
19




                19




                                         20

                                         20

                                         20

                                         20

                                         20

                                         20
                               20



                                        20




Notes: CV’s for 1990, 1995 and 2000a are based on old GDP data in
1990 constant prices; those for 2000b-2006 are based on new GDP
data in 2000 constant prices. The two series are not directly
comparable.
Urban Growth Scenarios
                               (Population in Millions)
                                            Known                     Forecast
                                           2000      2005     2010        2015    2020
National Population
assuming 0.7% growth per year             1265.8    1306.3   1352.7     1400.7   1450.4
Population Increase per year                           8.1      9.3        9.6      9.9

URBAN SCENARIO 1
assuming 3.5% growth per year
Urban Population                           458.6     561.6    667.0      792.2    940.9
Urban %                                     36.2      43.0     49.3       56.6     64.9
Urban Population Increase per year                    20.6     21.1       25.0     29.7
Urban Natural Increase (0.55%) per year                2.5      3.1        3.7      4.4
Net Rural-urban Migration per year                    18.1     18.0       21.3     25.3
URBAN SCENARIO 2
assuming 4% growth p.a. in 2005-2010,
and 3.5% p.a. after
Urban Population                           458.6     561.6    683.3      811.5    963.8
Urban %                                     36.2      43.0     50.5       57.9     66.5
Urban Population Increase per year                    20.6     24.3       25.6     30.5
Urban Natural Increase (0.55%) per year                2.5      3.1        3.8      4.5
Net Rural-urban Migration per year                    18.1     21.2       21.8     25.9

RURAL SCENARIO 1
Scenario 1
Rural Population                           807.3     744.7    685.7      608.5    509.5
Rural %                                     63.8      57.0     50.7       43.4     35.1
Rural Population Increase per year                   -12.5    -11.8      -15.4    -19.8
RURAL SCENARIO 2
Rural Population                           807.3     744.7    669.4      589.2    486.6
Rural %                                     63.8      57.0     49.5       42.1     33.5
Rural Population Increase per year                   -12.5    -15.1      -16.0    -20.5
                                                                                Urban Growth Scenarios, 2005-2020


Main points:                                                      1600




                                                                  1400

• Urban Population
  – 2005: 43% (560M);                                             1200


  – 2010: 50% (675M)
  – 2020: 65% (950M)                                              1000




                                 P o p u latio n in M illio n s
• Increase of about 400M in
                                                                  800
  the next 15 years
• 80% from net rural-urban                                        600



  migration and
  reclassification, about 20M                                     400
                                                                                                         Nationa;
                                                                                                         urban2
  per year     200-250 peasant                                    200
                                                                                                         urban1



  migrants by 2020
                                                                    0
                                                                         2000       2005     2010    2015         2020
Implications of Urban Growth
              • Employment?
                – Jobs for the 150 M
                  unemployed rural
                  labor
                – Many urban jobs
                  currently off-limit to
                  migrants
  Implications of Urban Growth
• Infrastructure
  and housing
  – affordable
    housing?
  – education for
    kids?
  – who pays?
    financing?
   Implications of Urban Growth
• Urban poverty, public
  safety and social
  stability
  – wage arrears, unfair
    compensation for land
    expropriated, etc
  – 200 M permanent
    urban underclass?
  – protests and riots
Thank you!

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Categories:
Tags:
Stats:
views:11
posted:10/10/2011
language:English
pages:33