Attachment D
Sensitivity Analysis Charts
Table of Contents
Figure Page
D-1 Salton Sea Accounting Model sensitivity analysis results with reduction factor for salinity adjusted anywhere from -5 percent to +5 percent. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-3 D-2 Salton Sea Accounting Model sensitivity analysis results with inflow reduction rates adjusted anywhere between 10,000 to 20,000 af/yr . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-4 D-3 Salton Sea Accounting Model sensitivity analysis results with reductions in inflow beginning anywhere between 0 and 10 years. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-5 D-4 Salton Sea Accounting Model sensitivity analysis results with starting salinity of the Sea anywhere between 43,000 and 45,000 mg/L. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-6 D-5 Salton Sea Accounting Model sensitivity analysis results with the salinity of inflow waters adjusted anywhere from -500 mg/L to +500 mg/L . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-7 D-6 Salton Sea Accounting Model sensitivity analysis results with annual precipitation rates adjusted such that average annual precipitation is 2.0 to 3.0 inches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-8 D-7 Salton Sea Accounting Model sensitivity analysis results with annual evaporation rates adjusted such that average annual evaporation is 69 to 71 inches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . D-9 D-8 Salton Sea Accounting Model sensitivity analysis results with areas selected from area/capacity/elevation data adjusted between -5 percent to +5 percent . . . . . . . . . . D-10 D-9 Salton Sea Accounting Model sensitivity analysis results with annual inflows adjusted such that the average annual inflow to the Sea is between -5 percent and 0 percent . . . . . D-11 D-10 Salton Sea Accounting Model sensitivity analysis results with Sea volumes increased anywhere from 0 percent to 10 percent due to salinity impacts on volume . . . . . . . D-12
Salton Sea Reclamation Project Sensitivity to Salinity Impacts on Evaporation -5 Percent to +5 Percent Changes from Relationship
-219 2000 -220 -5% -1 SD Mean -222 +1 SD 95% 2010 2020 2030 204 0 2050 2 060 2070 20 80 2090 2100
-221
Elevation (Feet)
-223
-224
-225
-226
-227
-228
-229 Year
9 0000
Salton Sea Reclamation Project Sensitivity to Salinity Impacts on Evaporation -5 Percent to +5 Percent Changes from Relationship
8 5000 -5 % 8 0000 -1 SD Mean +1 SD 95% Salinity (mg/l) 7 0000
7 5000
6 5000
6 0000
5 5000
5 0000
4 5000
4 0000 2 000
2010
2020
2030
204 0
205 0 Year
20 60
20 70
2 080
2090
2100
Salton Sea Reclamation Project Sensitivity to Salinity Impacts on Evaporation -5 Percent to +5 Percent Changes from Relationship
25200 0 25000 0 24800 0 24600 0 24400 0 24200 0 24000 0 23800 0 23600 0 23400 0 23200 0 23000 0 2000 -5% -1 SD Mean +1 SD 95% Surface Area (Acres)
2010
2020
2030
2 040
2050 Yea r
20 60
20 70
20 80
209 0
210 0
Figure D-1.—Salton Sea Accounting Model sensitivity analysis results with reduction factor for salinity adjusted anywhere from -5 percent to +5 percent.
D-3
-224 2000 -226
Salton Sea Reclamation Project Sensitivity to Inflow Reduction Rate 10,000 to 20,000 af/yr Reductions
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
-228 -230
-5% -1 SD Mean +1 SD 95%
-232 Elevation (Feet)
-234
-236 -238
-240
-242
-244 -246 Y ear
16 0000
Salton Sea Reclamation Project Sensitivity to Inflow Reduction Rate 10,000 to 20,000 af/yr Reductions
14 0000
-5% -1 SD M ean +1 SD
12 0000 Salinity (mg/l)
9 5%
10 0000
8 0000
6 0000
4 0000 2000
201 0
2020
2030
2040
2050 Year
2060
20 70
20 80
2090
2100
250000
Salton Sea Reclamation Project Sensitivity to Inflow Reduction Rate 10,000 to 20,000 af/yr Reductions
240000 -5% -1 SD Mean +1 SD 95% Surface Area (Acres) 210000
230000
220000
200000
190000
180000
170000
160000
150000 2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050 Year
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Figure D-2.—Salton Sea Accounting Model sensitivity analysis results with inflow reduction rates adjusted anywhere between 10,000 to 20,000 af/yr.
D-4
Salton Sea Reclamation Project Sensitivity to What Year Reductions in Inflow Begin 0 to 10 Years
-2 24 2000 -2 26 20 10 2 020 2030 2040 2 050 2 060 2070 2080 2090 2100
-2 28
-2 30 -2 32 Elevation
-2 34
-2 36 -5% -1 SD Mea n -2 40 +1 SD 95%
-2 38
-2 42
-2 44 -2 46 Year
16000 0
Salton Sea Reclamation Project Sensitivity to What Year Reductions in Inflow Begin 0 to 10 Years
14000 0
-5% -1 SD M ean +1 SD 9 5%
12000 0 Salinity (mg/l)
10000 0
8000 0
6000 0
4000 0 2000
2010
2 020
20 30
204 0
2050 Ye ar
2 060
20 70
2080
2090
2100
250000
Salton Sea Reclamation Project Sensitivity to What Year Reductions in Inflow Begin 0 to 10 Years
240000
230000
220000 Surface Area (Acres)
210000
200000
-5% -1 SD Mean +1 SD 9 5%
190000
180000
170000
160000
150000 2 000
20 10
202 0
2030
2040
2050 Year
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Figure D-3.—Salton Sea Accounting Model sensitivity analysis results with reductions in inflow beginning anywhere between 0 and 10 years.
D-5
Salton Sea Reclamation Project Sensitivity to Starting Sea Salinity 43,000 to 45,000 mg/l
-2 19 2000 -2 20 -5% -1 SD -2 21 Mea n +1 SD 95% -2 22 Elevation (Feet) 20 10 2 020 2030 2040 2050 2 060 2070 20 80 20 90 2100
-2 23
-2 24
-2 25
-2 26
-2 27
-2 28 Year
Salton Sea Reclamation Project Sensitivity to Starting Sea Salinity 43,000 to 45,000 mg/l
900 00
800 00 -5% -1 SD 700 00 Mean +1 SD 95%
600 00 Salinity (mg/l)
500 00
400 00
300 00
200 00
100 00
0 2000
2010
2020
203 0
2 040
2050 Ye ar
206 0
2 070
2080
20 90
2 100
Salton Sea Reclamation Project Sensitivity to Starting Sea Salinity 43,000 to 45,000 mg/l
252000 250000 248000 246000 244000 242000 240000 238000 236000 234000 232000 230000 2000
-5% -1 SD Mean +1 SD 95%
Surface Area (Acres)
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050 Year
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Figure D-4.—Salton Sea Accounting Model sensitivity analysis results with starting salinity of the Sea anywhere between 43,000 and 45,000 mg/L.
D-6
Salton Sea Reclamation Project Sensitivity to Salinity of Inflow -500 mg/l to +500 mg/l Change from Relationship
-219 2 000 -220 -5% -221 -1 SD Mean +1 SD -222 Elevation (Feet) 95% 2010 2020 2030 20 40 2 050 2060 2070 2080 20 90 2 100
-223
-224
-225
-226
-227
-228 Year
Salton Sea Reclamation Project Sensitivity to Salinity of Inflow -500 mg/l to +500 mg/l Change from Relationship
100000
90000
-5% -1 SD Mean +1 SD 95%
80000 Salinity (mg/l)
70000
60000
50000
40000 2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050 Year
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Salton Sea Reclamation Project Sensitivity to Salinity of Inflow -500 mg/l to +500 mg/l Change from Relationship
252 000 250 000 -5% 248 000 246 000 244 000 242 000 240 000 238 000 236 000 234 000 232 000 230 000 2000 -1 SD Mea n +1 SD 95% Surface Area (Acres)
201 0
2020
2030
2040
205 0 Year
2060
2070
2080
2090
2 100
Figure D-5.—Salton Sea Accounting Model sensitivity analysis results with the salinity of inflow waters adjusted anywhere from -500 mg/L to +500 mg/L.
D-7
Salton Sea Reclamation Project Sensitivity to Average Annual Precipitation 2.0 to 3.0 Inches
-219 2000 -220 -5% -1 SD -221 Mean +1 SD 95% 2010 2 020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2 070 2080 2090 2100
-222
Elevation (Feet)
-223
-224
-225
-226
-227
-228 Year
90000
Salton Sea Reclamation Project Sensitivity to Average Annual Precipitation 2.0 to 3.0 Inches
85000 -5% -1 SD Mean 75000 +1 SD 95%
80000
Salinity (mg/l)
70000
65000
60000
55000
50000
45000
40000 2000
2010
2020
2030
20 40
2 050 Year
2 060
2 070
2080
2090
2100
Salton Sea Reclamation Project Sensitivity to Average Annual Precipitation 2.0 to 3.0 Inches
252000 250000 -5 % 248000 246000 244000 242000 240000 238000 236000 234000 232000 230000 2000 -1 SD Mean +1 SD 95% Surface Area (Acres)
2010
2020
20 30
2040
2050 Year
2060
2070
2080
2090
21 00
Figure D-6.—Salton Sea Accounting Model sensitivity analysis results with annual precipitation rates adjusted such that average annual precipitation is 2.0 to 3.0 inches
D-8
Salton Sea Reclamation Project Sensitivity to Average Annual Evaporation 69 to 71 Inches
-219 200 0 -220 -5% -1 SD Mea n +1 SD 95% 2010 2020 2030 204 0 2050 2060 2070 20 80 20 90 2100
-221
-222
Ele vation (Feet)
-223
-224
-225
-226
-227
-228
-229 Year
Salton Sea Reclamation Project Sensitivity to Average Annual Evaporation 69 to 71 Inches
90000
85000 -5% -1 SD Mea n +1 SD 95%
80000
75000
Salinity (mg/l)
70000
65000
60000
55000
50000
45000
40000 2000
201 0
2 020
2030
2040
2050 Ye ar
206 0
2 070
2080
20 90
2100
Salton Sea Reclamation Project Sensitivity to Average Annual Evaporation 69 to 71 Inches
252000
250000 -5% 248000 246000 244000 242000 240000 238000 -1 SD Mea n +1 SD 95% Surface Area (Acre s)
236000 234000 232000 230000 2000
2010
2 020
2030
2040
2050 Year
2 060
20 70
20 80
2090
2100
Figure D-7.—Salton Sea Accounting Model sensitivity analysis results with annual evaporation rates adjusted such that average annual evaporation is 69 to 71 inches.
D-9
Salton Sea Reclamation Project Sensitivity to Area / Elevation / Capacity Relationship -5 Percent to +5 Percent Change in Surface Areas
-219 2000 -220 -5% -1 SD Mean -222 +1 SD 95% 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
-221
Elevation (feet)
-223
-224
-225
-226
-227
-228
-229 Year
Salton Sea Reclamation Project Sensitivity to Area / Elevation / Capacity Relationship -5 Percent to +5 Percent Change in Surface Areas
90000
80000 -5% -1 SD M ean +1 SD 9 5%
70000
60000 Salinity (mg/l)
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0 2000
2010
2020
2030
2 040
2050 Year
2060
2070
2080
2090
2 100
Salton Sea Reclamation Project Sensitivity to Area / Elevation / Capacity Relationship -5 Percent to +5 Percent Change in Surface Areas
265000
260000 -5 % -1 SD 255000 Mean +1 SD 95% 250000 Surface Area (Acres)
245000
240000
235000
230000
225000
220000 2000
2010
2020
20 30
204 0
2050 Year
2 060
20 70
20 80
2090
2100
Figure D-8.—Salton Sea Accounting Model sensitivity analysis results with areas selected from area / capacity / elevation data adjusted between -5 percent to +5 percent.
D-10
Salton Sea Reclamation Project Sensitivity to Average Annual Inflow -5 Percent to 0 Percent Change from 1,363,000 maf/yr
-2 18 2000 -2 20 -5% -1 SD -2 22 M ean +1 SD 9 5% -2 24 Elevation (feet) 2010 2 020 2030 2040 2 050 2 060 2070 2080 20 90 2100
-2 26
-2 28
-2 30
-2 32
-2 34
-2 36 Year
Salton Sea Reclamation Project Sensitivity to Average Annual Inflow -5 Percent to 0 Percent Change from 1,363,000 maf/yr
120000
100000
-5% -1 SD Mean +1 SD 95%
80000 Salinity (mg/l)
60000
40000
20000
0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Salton Sea Reclamation Project Sensitivity to Average Annual Inflow -5 Percent to 0 Percent Change from 1,363,000 maf/yr
255000
250000 -5% -1 SD 245000 Mean +1 SD 95%
Surface Area (Acres)
240000
235000
230000
225000
220000
215000 2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050 Year
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Figure D-9.—Salton Sea Accounting Model sensitivity analysis results with annual inflows adjusted such that the average annual inflow to the Sea is between -5 percent and 0 percent.
D-11
Salton Sea Reclamation Project Sensitivity to Water Volume and Salinity Relationship 0 Percent to +10 Percent Volume Adjustments
-220 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
-225
-230 Elevation (Feet)
-235 -5% -1 SD Mean -240 +1 SD 95%
-245
-250 Year
180000
Salton Sea Reclamation Project Sensitivity to Water Volume and Salinity Relationship 0 Percent to +10 Percent Volume Adjustments
160000
-5% -1 SD Mean +1 SD 95%
140000
Salinity (mg/l)
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000 2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
20 50 Year
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
250000
Salton Sea Reclamation Project Sensitivity to Water Volume and Salinity Relationship 0 Percent to +10 Percent Volume Adjustments
240000
230000
220000 Surface Area (Acres)
210000
200000
-5% -1 SD Me an +1 SD 95%
190000
180000
170000
160000
150000 2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050 Year
2060
2070
2080
20 90
2100
Figure D-10.— Salton Sea Accounting Model sensitivity analysis results with Sea volumes increased anywhere from 0 percent to 10 percent due to salinity impacts on volume.
D-12