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Migration

VIEWS: 21 PAGES: 30

									Migration


OTA TEAM




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                Migration Schedule

09.00 – 10.00  Migration – Background (V.Büsch)
10.00 – 10.15  Critical aspects of possible
               future legislation (U. Brasche)
10.15 – 10.30 Organizational details
10.30 – 10.45 Break
10.45 – 11.15 Lecture on Turkish Labour
               Migration (O. Zengingönül)
11.15 – 11.45 Presentation on Turkish
               Labour Migration
               (Students from the OTA Hochschule)
11.45 – 12.00 Each group search for possible questions
12.00 – 12.20 How to ask questions (T. Burger-Menzel)
12.20 – 13.00 Development of questionnaire (Country)
13.00 – 14. 00 Lunch time

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               Migration – Content


1. Introduction
2. Migration Theories
3. Basic facts about migration within the
   European Union




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                  Migration - Introduction

The population in most European countries is aging

Main Reason: Sharp decline in the fertility rate
Another Reason: Increase in life expectancy

The aging process goes together with a reduction in the
  population

Example: Germany would need each year 400.000 immigrants to
  compensate for the reduction

Birg, H. (2005)


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 Migration - Introduction




Source: Sachverständigenrat (2004), S. 61



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 Migration - Introduction




Source: Sachverständigenrat (2004), S. 62



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                            Migration - Introduction




Source: http://www.sicherheit-heute.de/index.php?cccpage=Migration&set_z_artikel=184




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                  Migration - Introduction

But is it necessary to compensate for the reduction?

Economic perspective:
In Germany 4 million people are jobless

So does the economy need immigrants?
It depends if immigrants are
Perfect Subsitutes
or
Perfect Complements
in terms of input factor labour




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         Migration - Introduction

       Focus: Individual Perspective

Migration comes from Latin: Migrare = Move

          Why do people move?
                 (blue)
          Why do people stay?
                 (pink)

              Brainstorming



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       Migration – Introduction –Classification
Type            Characteristic

1. Spatial      a) Mobility with domicile change
                b) Distance
                    Intraregional:
                internal migration or urban-rural migration
                    Interregional
                    International:
                cross-border
2. Temporal     Period:
dimension         12 months = permanently
                < 12 months = temporarily
3. Extent       Number of mobile persons
                   single - collective - mass
4. Legal status Legal or illegal immigrants
5. Migration    Voluntary or obligatory
decision
                                            Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), S. 7f.



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                     Migration - Introduction
Examples of voluntary migration:
•     Job market-induced migration
       (immigrant, seasonal or work contract employees)
•      Education-based migration
•      Migration due to family reunion

Examples of obligatory migration:
•     Natural disasters
       (drought, flooding, tsunami, famine, technical disasters...)
•      Human acts
       (civil war, persecution, slavery...)




           Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), p. 8



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 Migration - Introduction




Source: Bericht des Sachverständigenrates (2004), S. 20



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                         Theories of Migration

                 Economic migration models
1 . Human capital model

2. Model with perfect competition

3. Gravitation model

4. Push-Pull model



Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), S. 21f.




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                         Theories of migration

                       Human capital model
             (Intertemporal investment calculation)
      Migration understood as an investment in human capital
                      (based on ideas of Sjaastad 1962)
Following factors affect the migration decision:
• Qualification/Education
(enriching capacity and possibility to get a good job)
• Age
(younger people have a higher pay-back period)
• Risk preferences

Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), S. 27




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                Theories of Migration




Migration of highly-qualified people - positive
  selection

Migration of low-qualified - negative selection




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                      Theories of Migration

                Model with perfect competition
                  Micro economic viewpoint
 Based on ideas by Berry and Soligo (1969) as well as Chiswick
                             (1982)

Assumption: Maximizing utilities with respect to the
  budget restriction which depends on wage level

Migration from a low-wage to a high-wage country as
  long as equilibrium is reached (same wage in both
  countries)

Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), S. 31

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       Theories of Migration

    Model with perfect competition


    1. Wage(B) > Wage (A):


A                        B



     2. Wage(B) and Wage(A)

     3. Wage(B) = Wage (A)




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                        Theories of Migration

                                    Remarks
        Wage differentials alone are not able to explain migration,
                     otherwise migration would be higher.
Limited model in particular due to the assumptions:
•   Rational behavior (i.e. Perfect information about jobs and
    remuneration )
•   Homogeneous work (same marginal productivity = same technology
    in both countries)
•   Full employment
•   No uncertainty
•   No migration costs
•   No migration barriers (e.g. work permits, recognition of
    qualifications, cultural and linguistic barriers)
                  Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), S. 21f.



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                       Theories of Migration
                      Variation of assumptions
                      Based on Harris/Todaro (1970)

                   Target: Explain rural-urban migration

+ Probability to find a new job in the target area  expected wage
   level
+ Migration costs
+ No homogeneity of workers
[i.e. domestic and immigrant workers are not perfect substitutes]


Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), p.25f.




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                              Theories of Migration
                               Gravitation Model
                     Based on ideas of Ravenstein (1885)

Model follows the law of gravity (1666) of I. Newton
i.e. gravitation strength depends on mass and distance


Size of the population in the origin and target region
and distance!
                                                           de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isaac_Newton

Networks play an important role ("friends and relatives effect")

Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), p. 29




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                      Theories of Migration
                          Push-Pull model
                      Based on ideas of Lee 1966
                  Starting point: the gravitation model
      Four factors:
1.    Factors regarding the origin area (Push)
2.    Factors regarding the target area (Pull)
Examples from Lee: Climate and educational system
3.   Intermediate obstacles (distance, immigration laws)
     [Distance my be subjective or objective]
4.   Individual factors (age, family status, network, qualification)

Only in theory do people have perfect information.
In reality the individual perception is more important.

                                              Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), p. 31



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                          Theories of Migration

Economic and political mismatches :
•   Rising economy – stagnating economy
•   Functioning job markets - unemployment
•   Higher wage level - lower wage level
•   Democratic system - ethnic or religious oppression
•   High - low level of the social insurance systems
•   High – low development of the infrastructure
•   High – low quality of the environment
Another important pull-factor:
•   Cultural affinity (language, history, cultural development...)

 Source: : Münz et al: Zuwanderung nach Deutschland; München; 1997; p.15 and
 Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), p. 31



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Theories of Migration




                        Source:
                        www.chkorte.de/
                        mexiko/pushpull.g
                        if




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                            Theories of Migration

                         So why don't many move?
Migration/transaction costs, such as
• moving expenses,
• information costs,
• costs of learning a new language…
Home location-specific, not-transferable knowledge (sunk costs), such as
• standards
• values
• manners
• local authorities
• informal channels
• consumer and leisure facilities
• income possibilities
 Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), p. 3




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                         Migration within the EU
Future prospects:
The economic and social differences within the European Union will
   decrease
 Migration flows within the European Union states shrink
Source: Münz et al: Zuwanderung nach Deutschland; München; 1997; S.15


Crucial factor for European migration today: Existing legislation and
migration policy decisions
Source: Münz et al: Zuwanderung nach Deutschland; München; 1997; S.20




 Within the EU, people have the basic right of free movement of labour
 Source: Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005), S. 2

 However ....




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                   Migration within the EU

Transitional arrangements set out in the Accession Treaty:
Limited free movement during a transitional period in the extended
    European Union for a maximum duration of 7 years
    (exception: Malta and Cyprus)
Transitional period: "2 plus 3 plus 2" (phase 1 ends on 30 April 2006)
Sweden, Ireland and UK of the European Union 15 do not take part

Before the end of phases 1+2 the Commission has to write a report
The member states (EU 15) themselves have to notify their intentions
   for the next phase to the Commission in advance


Source: Communication from the Commission to the Council, the European
Parliament, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of
the Regions, 08.02.2006



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                        Migration within the EU
Some results of the report:
1.     There seems to be no link between transitional arrangements and
       extent of migration
2.     Flow of workers has been rather small
3.     And too small to affect the European Union job market as a whole
(Before and after the extension the share of the EU10 citizens of the
     resident population of each individual EU15 member state remains
     relatively stable)
4.     There is no indication that domestic labor is being substituted by
       the limited inflow of workers from the EU10
5.     Migration after the extension has had a positive effect on the
       national economies of the EU15-member states
     Source: Communication from the Commission to the Council, the European
     Parliament, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of
     the Regions, 08.02.2006



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             Outlook



Approximately 75% of all Turks in
Western Europe live in Germany

What will the future of Turkish
migration be like?




          Quelle: Bericht des Sachverständigenrates (2004), S. 25



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                                References
Birg, H. (2005): Die ausgefallene Generation – Was die Demographie über unsere
    Zukunft sagt
Communication from the commission to the council, the parliament, the european
    economic and social committee and the committee of the regions (2006):
    Report on the Functioning of the Transitional Arrangements set out in the
    2003 Accession Treaty (period 1 May 2004-30 April 2006)
Goldberg, A., Halm, D., Sen, F. (2004): Die deutschen Türken
Global Commission on International Migration (Hrsg.), (2006), Migration in einer
    interdependenten Welt: Neue Handlungsprinzipien: Bericht der
    Weltkommission für internationale Migration
Münz, R., Seifert, W., Ulrich, R. (1997): Zuwanderung nach Deutschland –
    Strukturen, Wirkungen, Perspektiven
Pflugbeil, S.D. (2005): Auswirkungen der internationalen Migration auf die
    Bundesrepublik Deutschland – Theoretische und empirische Analysen vor dem
    Hintergrund der EU-Osterweiterung
Sachverständigenrat für Zuwanderung und Integration im Auftrag
    der Bundesregierung in Zusammenarbeit mit dem europäischen forum für
    Migrationsstudien (efms) an der Universität Bamberg (2004):
    Migrationsbericht

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                 Organizational Details


Group   1:   France
Group   2:   Spain and Turkey
Group   3:   Press and Czech
Group   4:   UK




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