Tutorial “Role Playing Strategy Games for Intelligence Analysis” by pengxuebo


									            Tutorial: “Role Playing Strategy Games for Intelligence Analysis”

                Barry G. Silverman, Ph.D.1, Richard L. Rees, Ph.D.2, Jozsef A. Toth, Ph.D.3
     Electrical & Systems Engineering, University of Pennsylvania (UPenn) (barryg@seas.upenn.edu)
             2                         3
               Great Falls, VA           Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA), Alexandria, VA

          Overview. With intelligence analysis,       mechanism for eliciting and capturing the know-
one is continually trying to get people to: 1) see    how of more senior analysts and domain gurus,
the alternative hypotheses of what might be           and of preserving that knowledge to help sharpen
motivating various subjects of interest; 2) break     new employees’ skills in the three areas
out of thought silos and biases; and 3) explore       mentioned above, although it also helps seasoned
the potential effects of diverse actions straddling   analysts as well. This is particularly true as one
economic, psychological, cultural, political,         increases the realism of the scenarios in the
diplomatic, military, and other domains. Games        gameworld and of the agent-based software that
often can be the best way to provide such             emulates the opponents and other world actors.
thinking shifts. As opposed to other forms of                   In our case, we make use of a large-
analysis, games are immersive; are self-              scale, agent-based human behavior system that
controlled; are discovery-, problem-, and             emulates human stress, personality (Hermann
learning-based; and provide a safe means for          type profiles), and emotion that permits agents to
testing hypotheses and rehearsing solutions. In a     make autonomous game strategy decisions based
Monte Carlo simulation mode, they also can be         on their own preference structures—a model
used to study a space of potential outcomes.          they form of the other player’s intentions, and
          In this workshop, participants will first   the standards of behavior they adopt regarding
be exposed to a number of role playing game           trust, deception, relationships, commitments, and
(RPG) ideas and videogame examples that               actions.     By tuning these parameters, our
illustrate the three categories of intelligence-      synthetic agents tend to approximate the
analytic thinking listed above. This will be part     behaviors of real world counterparts. The tutorial
of a talk aimed at elucidating the aesthetics,        will explore how this works, and the participants
mechanics, and methodology of game design.            will be provided with take-home materials for
The participants will then have a hands-on            further study.
session playing a world strategy game that is a                 Intended Audience. This tutorial is
publicly releasable derivative of one developed       informative for intelligence analysts, but is also
for the U.S. Government. They will first play         geared for non-analysts or theorists interested in
against each other in a paper-based version           improving the practice via novel methods of
called PolicyMaker (soon to appear at stores).        strategy RPGs and realistic emulation of real-
Next, participants will interact with a computer-     world characters and situations.         No prior
based      variation   of    PolicyMaker—called       knowledge is required, but practical experience
LeaderSim—including a set of agent-based              with some games is desirable.
software opponents (see game description at                     Purpose. Participants will explore the
www.seas.upenn.edu/~barryg/Athena.doc).               following topics:
Lastly, in a learn-by-doing session, we will break    1) Game design methodology with particular
into teams and brainstorm new role playing                 emphasis on aesthetics and mechanics of
games that may be of value to the participants.            RPGs and strategy games that will help
          Game design is often thought to be the           achieve the three intelligence-analytic
sole domain of the entertainment industry.                 objectives outlined in the description (This
However, with the average age of videogame                 is analogous to software designers learning
players now being thirty, role-playing games are           software requirements and concept design—
increasingly understood by the workforce.                  roughly on a par with formal methods such
Games have the potential to harness young                  as first-level object oriented analysis and
analysts’ enthusiasm and to create spontaneously           related methods). In addition to a lecture,
self-generating gameplay communities, analysts             participants will practice the methodology
who never tire of trying out alternative ways to           with the help of two hands-on, learning-by-
influence the situation.                                   doing sessions—one for the case study
          Our own experience with RPG design               board game, and the other to begin applying
has revealed that game design is also an intuitive         these methods to participants’ own domains.
2) How to use game design sessions to elicit       Ackoff Center for Advancement of the System
   and capture domain know-how so as to            Approach (ACASA). He holds the BSE (’75),
   improve analyst performance (experts as         MSE (’77) and PhD (also ’77) all from the
   well as novices).                               University of Pennsylvania, is a Fellow of IEEE,
3) Ways to evaluate what a game provides and       AAAS, and the Washington Acad. of Science,
   proposals for guidelines to determine when a    and sits on the board of several organizations and
   design might be finished, or how and when       journals in the intelligent systems fields. The
   its aesthetics and mechanics need to be         focus of his research has largely been on
   further refined (this happens via play-         aesthetic and cognitive engineering of embedded
   testing, an activity explored in the hands-on   game-theoretic agents that can help humans
   session).                                       improve their learning, performance, and
4) By walking all the way through the case-        systems thinking in task-environments. Over the
   study, we also hope to acquaint the             years, his lab has produced or is in the process of
   participants with what’s involved in            creating patient and human physiology
   translating a paper based game design into      simulations; a terrorist campaign and crowd
   electronic gameworlds and realistic software    simulator; numerous autonomous and emergent
   agents. We sincerely hope participants will     agent tools; several distributed, computer-
   gain a realistic sense of the modules and       mediated,       human-to-human        collaborative
   effort that might be required for such a        systems; 3 role playing games (RPGs); the
   system to become useful in terms of idea-       AESOP interactive fiction game generator; and
   discovery, action rehearsal, and potential      the PMFserv human modeling system for
   outcomes simulation tool.                       enhancing the realism of game AI. As a result of
                                                   all this, Barry is the author of over 120 articles,
Outline.                                           13 books/proceedings, over 100 tech reports, 9
•    Introduction, Rationale (R. Rees) – 10        copyrighted software systems, a boardgame, and
     minutes                                       several research and teaching excellence awards.
•     Game Design Principles (B.G. Silverman)      Dr. Richard Rees earned his Ph.D. in 1979 in
      – 30 minutes                                 clinical psychology and re-trained in industrial-
             • Definition of a Game                organizational psychology. He is licensed as an
             • Game Aesthetics & Mechanics         applied psychologist in Virginia. For the past 26
             • Game Design Methodology             years, he has pursued the application of
             • Game/Entertainment (ENT)            psychological principles to the world of work,
                  Metrics and Sub-Dimensions       especially the performance of executives and the
    • A Few Aesthetic Models (kinds of fun)        personality and contextual factors that lead to
    • Rock, Paper, Scissors                        pro- and anti-social behavior in organizations.
    • Social Aspects of Games: Team Rock,          Dr. Rees has designed and taught college,
         Paper, Scissors                           doctoral and post-doctoral symposia.
    • 5 Steps for Game Development
•   Case Study: Design a Game to Teach About       Dr. Jozsef A. Toth is a Research Staff Member
    Influencing World Leaders (R. Rees, BGS)       at the Institute for Defense Analyses, Alexandria
    – 20 min                                       VA, and has been involved in the research and
•   Hands-On Session #1 – Play-test Policy         development of cognitive modeling, simulation,
    Maker Boardgame – 60 minutes                   and theory for the past twenty-five years. Since
•   Play LeaderSim online – 20 minutes             1998, Dr. Toth has been engaged in the
•   Programming the Game (B.G. Silverman) –        exploitation of cognitive, AI, and organizational
    25 minutes                                     theory in the development and evaluation of
•   PlayTest and Evaluation (J. Toth) – 15 min     tools and business models to support training,
•   Hands-On Session #2 - Create Your Own          analysis, planning, and operations in the next
    Organizational Improvement Game – 60           generation            of          counterterrorism,
    minutes                                        counterintelligence, and counterproliferation. He
                                                   is presently working with the Joint Intelligence
Dr. Barry G. Silverman is Professor in             Task Force—Combating Terrorism at DIA and
Engineering (ESE & CIS), in Medicine, and in       the Missile Defense Agency in the domain of
Wharton (OPIM) at the University of                crisis action planning regarding the human and
Pennsylvania where he is also Director of the      social factors of collaborative software.

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