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VIEWS: 35 PAGES: 81

  • pg 1
									The following is not for
  the faint of heart.



Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Global warming & sea
     level rise
   Fraser Valley scenarios




   Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
       A relatively close neighbour


M81 is
located
at a
distance
of 12
million
light-
years.




           Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
  Look closely




What strikes you about this image
          Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Two critical features

                                 Finite
                                          • limited size


                                 No emergency
                                  exits
                                          • Come what
                                            may, we are
                                            stuck here



Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
     A fine balance




Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
                        Our Atmosphere

PERMANENT gases in the atmosphere by percent are:
   –     Nitrogen 78.1%
   –     Oxygen 20.9%
(Note that these two permanent gases together
  comprise 99% of the atmosphere)
Other permanent gases:
   –     Argon                                0.9%
   –     Neon                                 0.002%
   –     Helium                               0.0005%
   –     Krypton                              0.0001%
   –     Hydrogen                             0.00005%


   Source: http://www.met.fsu.edu/explores/atmcomp.html



                    Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
                       Our Atmosphere


VARIABLE gases in the atmosphere and
 typical percentage values are:

   –     Water vapor                           0 to 4%
   –     Carbon Dioxide                        0.035%
   –     Methane                               0.0002%
   –     Ozone                                 0.000004%
 Source: http://www.met.fsu.edu/explores/atmcomp.html



                   Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
   ―Climate change is the most severe
       problem we are facing today‖


Sir David King, Britain‘s chief science advisor


Source: Science, 2004, quoted in Vanity Fair May 2006



                 Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
How are we doing?




 Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
                    How are we doing?

                                                      ―There is real concern that
                                                          by the end of the next
                                                             century, human
                                                            activities will have
                                                            changed the basic
                                                           conditions that have
                                                         allowed life to thrive on
                                                                   earth.‖
                                                                – Understanding
                                                               Climate Change: A
                                                              Beginner's Guide to
                                                              the UN Framework
                                                                       Convention


Source: Rick Kool



                    Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
              Global warming
       The 20 hottest years on record




Source: Union of Concerned Scientists



                  Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
                           Glacial Retreat

Glacial
Retreat:
Thinning of
the tongue
during the
1990s
accelerated
and as of
2001 a lake
started to
form in
front of it
(right
image). The
ice became
buoyant and
rapid break-
up of the
snout is
now
underway
(Michael
Hambrey,
www.swiss
educ.ch/gla
ciers/earth_
icy_planet/g   Source: Stronger Evidence but New Challenges: Climate Change Science 2001-2005;Will Steffen;
laciers04-     Executive Director of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) from 1998 through
en.html).      mid-2004 and, since then, as IGBP Chief Scientist and as Director of the Centre for Resource and
               Environmental Studies, at the Australian National University.


                     Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
        What do Canadian climate
             scientists say?

As the climate changes, there will be
 increasing impacts on Canada’s
 natural ecosystems and on its socio-
 economic activities.




 Source: An Open Letter to the Prime Minister of Canada on Climate Change Science
 April 18 2006; Signed by 90 Canadian climate science leaders from the academic, public and private
 sectors across the country




                  Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
         What do Canadian climate
              scientists say?

Some impacts are:
• Inadequate water for Prairie agriculture
  and hydroelectric utilities due to
  increased drying of the continental
  interior and reduced snow pack and
  shrinking glaciers;

  Source: An Open Letter to the Prime Minister of Canada on Climate Change Science
  April 18 2006; Signed by 90 Canadian climate science leaders from the academic, public and private
  sectors across the country



                   Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
         What do Canadian climate
              scientists say?

• Threats to the sustainability of Canada‘s
  natural resources due to an inability of our
  ecosystems to respond rapidly as the climate
  changes.
   – Warming allowing the spread of insects through our
     forests and prolonged drought making forests more
     susceptible to fires;
   – Warming of ocean and river waters, threatening
     survival of Pacific salmon, a cold water fish, by forcing
     it away from its spawning grounds;
 Source: An Open Letter to the Prime Minister of Canada on Climate Change Science
 April 18 2006; Signed by 90 Canadian climate science leaders from the academic, public and private
 sectors across the country


                    Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
         What do Canadian climate
              scientists say?
• Increasing severity and frequency of some extreme
  weather events, including floods and droughts, some
  of which are already exceeding 100-year records and
  requiring more robust design specifications for
  infrastructure;

• Thawing of permafrost and associated effects on the
  human environment (infrastructure, roads, pipelines,
  buildings), sea ice, northern ecosystems and species,
  all leading to dramatic changes in the lives of
  northern people;

  Source: An Open Letter to the Prime Minister of Canada on Climate Change Science
  April 18 2006; Signed by 90 Canadian climate science leaders from the academic, public and private sectors
  across the country


                   Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
        What do Canadian climate
             scientists say?

• Increased marine traffic through the northern sea
  routes, increasing the likelihood of environmental
  impacts and challenges to Canada‘s sovereignty
  claims in the Arctic.


• Some of these projected impacts are already
  detectable.


  Source: An Open Letter to the Prime Minister of Canada on Climate Change Science
  April 18 2006; Signed by 90 Canadian climate science leaders from the academic, public and
  private sectors across the country



                   Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
      Top 20 carbon dioxide emitters
                                                1996

                                            Total       Per capita      Total
                 Country                  emissions     emissions      emission       Growth
                                         (1000 tons of
                                              C)       (tons/capita)    (rank)     (in %, 1990-96)
                 United States             1446777         5.37           -1             -9.9
                 Peoples Rep. of China      917997         0.76          -18             40
                 Russia Federation          431090         2.91           -6      -19.2 (since 1992)
                 Japan                      318686         2.54           -9             9.1
                 India                      272212         0.29          -20            47.7
                 Germany                    235050         2.87           -7            -12.2
                 United Kingdom             152015         2.59           -8             -1.1
                 Canada                     111723         3.76           -4             -0.1
                 South Korea                111370         2.46          -11            69.2
                 Italy                      110052         1.92          -13             1.1
                 Ukraine                    108431          2.1          -12      -37 (since 1992)
                 France (incl. Monaco)      98750          1.69          -15      2.4 (since 1992)
                 Poland                     97375          2.52          -10             2.6
                 Mexico                     95007          1.02          -17             18
                 Australia                  83688          4.63           -2            15.3
                 South Africa               79898          1.88          -14             0.6
                 Brazil                     74610          0.46          -19            34.9
                 Saudi Arabia               73098          3.88           -3            51.2
                 Iran                       72779          1.04          -16            25.6
                 North Korea                69412          3.09           -5              4




Source: Union of Concerned Scientists



                   Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
                              Canada now

Canada has experienced its warmest
 winter since modern record-keeping
 began, with average temperatures 3.9
 degrees above normal and all regions of
 the country basking in abnormal
 mildness, according to preliminary
 figures compiled by Environment
 Canada.
  Source: Globe and Mail, Mar. 14, 2006, “Hot Enough For You” by Martin Mittelstaedt




                    Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
                              Canada now


The biggest departure from typical winter
 weather was in the area where Alberta,
 Saskatchewan and the Northwest
 Territories converge. Temperatures
 there were a staggering eight degrees
 warmer than normal.


  Source: Globe and Mail, Mar. 14, 2006, “Hot Enough For You” by Martin Mittelstaedt



                    Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
                              Canada now


But other notable warm spots included the
 entire Prairie region, where
 temperatures were five to seven
 degrees above average, and southern
 British Columbia.



  Source: Globe and Mail, Mar. 14, 2006, “Hot Enough For You” by Martin Mittelstaedt



                    Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
                               Canada now


"Statistically, this is a one-in-a-100-years
  kind of event,"

said Bob Whitewood, a climatologist with
  Environment Canada in Toronto.



  Source: Globe and Mail, Mar. 14, 2006, “Hot Enough For You” by Martin Mittelstaedt




                    Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
   A view from the US Dept of Energy


Of particular concern are nonlinear changes in the
  intensity, frequency, magnitude, or geographic
  locus of losses.

As a real-world example, according to a letter
  published in Nature, the European heat wave of
  2003 was six standard deviations from the norm.
  Rising uncertainty will confound pricing and
  reduce insurability in some cases.

  Evan Mills, a staff scientist at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National
                                         Laboratory.



                     Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
    A view from the US Dept of
              Energy

From an actuarial perspective, abrupt
  climate change is much more of a
 challenge to insurers than a stylized
 view of gradual and linear changes
 over long time frames.



   Evan Mills, a staff scientist at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.



                Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
           A view from the US Dept of
                     Energy

Insured losses from weather-related
  events in 2005 approached $80 billion
  (4 times those from 9/11), and that
  excludes a host of small-scale events
  that don‘t appear in the official statistics.



Evan Mills, a staff scientist at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.



                        Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
          A view from the US Dept of
                    Energy

It is important to note that many of the impacts of
    climate change, especially small-scale or gradual-
    loss events that have enormous aggregate costs—
    lightning, permafrost melt, mold, drought, or sea-level
    rise—are poorly (if at all) incorporated in these
    models. This creates some worrisome blind spots,
    which I‘m afraid will grow larger under climate
    change.



Evan Mills, a staff scientist at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.



                      Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
A business analysis: Swiss Re




     Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
A business analysis: Swiss Re




     Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
A business analysis: Swiss Re




     Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
                                    Major Floods




Source: Stronger Evidence but New Challenges: Climate Change Science 2001-2005;Will Steffen; Executive Director of the
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) from 1998 through mid-2004 and, since then, as IGBP Chief Scientist
and as Director of the Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, at the Australian National University.



                        Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
     Some thoughts on BC forests


―British Columbia hasn't been this warm in 8,000 years,
  and the winters are no longer cold enough to keep
  the beetles in check.


Global-warming scenarios the International Panel on
  Climate Change forecast for 50 years from now are
  already unfolding in the province's interior.‖


  Source: Globe and Mail, April 22, 2006; “We Might Become Extinct” by Terry Glavin




                     Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
    Some thoughts on BC forests


―Now, Dr. Hebda is starting to wonder whether the pine
  forests will ever grow back.



‗We just don't know,‘ he says ‗Lodgepole-pine forests
  need catastrophic events such as beetle outbreaks
  and a few decades, even from a beetle outbreak
  even of this magnitude.‘‖

  Source: Globe and Mail, April 22, 2006; “We Might Become Extinct” by Terry Glavin




                   Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
   Nothing is "normal" any more.


―But nobody knows whether B.C.'s climate, decades
  from now, will be able to support pine forests.




           Nothing is "normal" any more.‖


  Source: Globe and Mail, April 22, 2006; “We Might Become Extinct” by Terry Glavin



                   Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Nothing is "normal" any more.




 Source: Ministry of Forests: Last Modified: 2005 MAY 10.



                   Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
  Will there even be any trees?




Source: Ministry of Forests: Last Modified: 2005 MAY 10.



                  Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
     Will there even be any trees?


―‘The question is, will there be forests at all in the
  southern portion of British Columbia's central
  interior? Will there even be any trees?‘ Dr. Hebda
  asks. ‗It all depends on how much CO{-2} we push
  into the atmosphere.‘‖

―So, when Dr. Hebda looks into the future, he sees a lot
  of sagebrush, grassland and rangeland where the
  pine forests are now, at high elevations, and down
  among the spruce, fir and ponderosa pine.‖
  Source: Globe and Mail, April 22, 2006; “We Might Become Extinct” by Terry Glavin




                     Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
        Global Warming & Sea level rise


                  Climate Change: On the Edge
       Greenland Ice Cap Breaking Up at Twice the Rate It Was
                          Five Years Ago
by Jim Hansen, director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, is
    President George Bush's top climate modeller.




   Published on Friday, February 17, 2006, by the Independent/UK :



                      Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
  Global warming: Sea level rise


―How far can it go?
The last time the world was three degrees
  warmer than today – which is what we expect
  later this century – sea levels were 25m
  higher.
So that is what we can look forward to if we
  don't act soon.‖

  Dr. James Hansen; Published on Friday, February 17, 2006, by the Independent/UK :



                   Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
                        Risk is increasing


     “ Thus, there is now perceived to be a greater risk
       that the upper end of the well known IPCC
       TAR estimate of a 1.4 to 5.8oC temperature rise
       will be reached or exceeded by 2100.”

     IPCC:              Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
     TAR:               Third Assessment Report




Source: Stronger Evidence but New Challenges: Climate Change Science 2001-2005;Will Steffen; Executive
Director of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) from 1998 through mid-2004 and, since
then, as IGBP Chief Scientist and as Director of the Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, at the
Australian National University.


                      Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
    Ecological Footprint: Climate
               Change




Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment



                     Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
    Global Mean Temperature &
              Risks




Source: Stronger Evidence but New Challenges: Climate Change Science 2001-2005;Will Steffen; Executive Director of the
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) from 1998 through mid-2004 and, since then, as IGBP Chief
Scientist and as Director of the Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, at the Australian National University.




                      Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
  Global warming: sea level rise

―None of the current climate and ice
  models predict this. But I prefer the
  evidence from the Earth's history and
  my own eyes.

I think sea-level rise is going to be the big
   issue soon, more even than warming
   itself.‖
  Dr. James Hansen; Published on Friday, February 17, 2006, by the Independent/UK :



                   Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
         Global warming: sea level rise




―It's hard to say what the world will be like if this
   happens.


It would be another planet.‖



  Dr. James Hansen; Published on Friday, February 17, 2006, by the Independent/UK :



                    Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Global warming: sea level rise




                ―How long have we got?‖




Dr. James Hansen; Published on Friday, February 17, 2006, by the Independent/UK :


                 Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
    Global warming: sea level rise


―We have to stabilize emissions of carbon
  dioxide within a decade, or
  temperatures will warm by more than
  one degree.
That will be warmer than it has been for
 half a million years, and many things
 could become unstoppable. ―
Dr. James Hansen; Published on Friday, February 17, 2006, by the Independent/UK :



                    Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
  Global warming: sea level rise


―This new satellite data is a remarkable
 advance. We are seeing for the first
 time the detailed behavior of the ice
 streams that are draining the Greenland
 ice sheet.‖



 Dr. James Hansen; Published on Friday, February 17, 2006, by the Independent/UK :



                   Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
  Global warming: sea level rise


―They show that Greenland seems to be
  losing at least 200 cubic kilometers of
  ice a year.

It is different from even two years ago,
   when people still said the ice sheet was
   in balance.‖
 Dr. James Hansen; Published on Friday, February 17, 2006, by the Independent/UK :



                   Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Melting of Greenland Ice Sheet
        Most extensive in 27 year history of data collection




Figure courtesy of NOAA and CIRES




                 Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
   Global warming: sea level rise


―Hundreds of cubic kilometers sounds like a lot
  of ice. But this is just the beginning. Once a
  sheet starts to disintegrate, it can reach a
  tipping point beyond which break-up is
  explosively rapid.‖




 Dr. James Hansen; Published on Friday, February 17, 2006, by the Independent/UK :



                    Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
  Global warming: sea level rise


―The issue is how close we are getting to that
  tipping point.

The summer of 2005 broke all records for
  melting in Greenland. So we may be on the
  edge.‖



 Dr. James Hansen; Published on Friday, February 17, 2006, by the Independent/UK :



                   Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
  Global warming: sea level rise


―Our understanding of what is going on is
  very new. Today's forecasts of sea-level
  rise use climate models of the ice
  sheets that say they can only
  disintegrate over a thousand years or
  more.‖


 Dr. James Hansen; Published on Friday, February 17, 2006, by the Independent/UK :



                   Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
   Global warming: sea level rise


―But we can now see that the models are
  almost worthless. They treat the ice
  sheets like a single block of ice that will
  slowly melt. But what is happening is
  much more dynamic.‖



 Dr. James Hansen; Published on Friday, February 17, 2006, by the Independent/UK :



                    Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
  Global warming: sea level rise


―Once the ice starts to melt at the surface, it
  forms lakes that empty down crevasses to the
  bottom of the ice. You get rivers of water
  underneath the ice. And the ice slides
  towards the ocean.‖




 Dr. James Hansen; Published on Friday, February 17, 2006, by the Independent/UK :



                   Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Global Temperature and Sea
          Level




    Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
   Global warming: sea level rise


―Our NASA scientists have measured this in
  Greenland. And once these ice streams start
  moving, their influence stretches right to the
  interior of the ice sheet. Building an ice sheet
  takes a long time, because it is limited by
  snowfall.

But destroying it can be explosively rapid.”

 Dr. James Hansen; Published on Friday, February 17, 2006, by the Independent/UK :



                    Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
     Global warming & sea level rise
              Others agree

―But if one is interested in risks and in preparing to
  meet them, the more interesting question is what
  the deep historical record can tell us about the
  circumstances under which climates have changed
  rapidly in the past and the severity of the
  consequences.


Considered in that way, accelerated glacial melting
  and larger changes in sea level (for example)
  should be looked at as probable events, not as
  hypothetical possibilities.‖

•Source: Editorial, Science, VOL 311 24 MARCH 2006



                  Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
                   North America current




Source: http://geongrid.geo.arizona.edu/arcims/website/slr1kmglobal/viewer.htm



                    Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
North America: 1 metre sea level
             rise




      Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Africa, Asia, Europe: 1 metre rise




       Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Africa, Asia, Europe: 6 meter rise




       Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
Coastal futures : New Orleans &
            Katrina




      Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
      Coastal futures




       Sea level rise:
Fraser Valley scenarios




  Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
           Municipal populations 2005

           Burnaby                                              204,324
           Coquitlam                                            121,973
           Delta                                                102,655
           Langley                                               25,718
           Langley township                                      97,125
           Maple Ridge                                           73,280
           New Westminster                                       57,480
           Pitt Meadows                                          16,673
           Port Coquitlam                                        57,563
           Port Moody                                            28,458
           Richmond                                             173,430
           Surrey                                               393,137
           Vancouver                                            583,267
Source:
BC Stats
                                     Total                     1,935,083

                     Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
   Scenario 1: Current Situation
                                                    Scenario 1: Current Situation




The information contained in this package indicates a potential at a broad scale (for discussion
purposes only)


                    Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
                 Scenario 2: 2.5 meters




The information contained in this package indicates a potential at a broad scale (for discussion
purposes only)


                      Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
                 Scenario 3: 5.0 meters




The information contained in this package indicates a potential at a broad scale (for discussion
purposes only)


                      Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
               Scenario 4: 10 meters




The information contained in this package indicates a potential at a broad scale (for discussion
purposes only)


                    Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
                   Scenario 5: 25 meters




The information contained in this package indicates a potential at a broad scale (for discussion
purposes only)


                         Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
                 Summary



Can we still avoid dangerous climate
               change?




      Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
 Business as usual: We fly, We kill

Figure 10 Energy use of different forms of transport (41)

             Energy                         Emissions            Emissions of               Emissions     Emissions of
             consumed                       of carbon            hydro-                     of nitrogen   carbon
             (kilojoules per                dioxide (g/          carbons(g/ T-              oxides (g/    monoxide
             T-Km)                          T-Km)                Km)                        T-Km          (g/ T-Km)
Rail         677                            41                   0.06                       0.2           0.05
Boat         423                            30                   0.04                       0.4           0.12
Road         2,890                          207                  0.30                       3.6           2.40
Air          15,839                         1,206                2.00                       5.5           1.40

T-Km = tonne-kilometres of good transported g/ T-Km = grams per tonne-
kilometre

    Stopping the great food swap; Relocalising Europe’s food supply; Dr Caroline Lucas MEP; 2002


                           Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
                           We fly, We kill


―It‘s not just that aviation represents the
   world‘s fastest growing source of carbon
   dioxide emissions. The burning of
   aircraft fuel has a ―radiative forcing
   ratio‖ of around 2.7(11).‖



 By George Monbiot. Published in the Guardian 28th February 2006



                   Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
                            We fly, We kill

―What this means is that the total warming
  effect of aircraft emissions is 2.7 times
  as great as the effect of the carbon
  dioxide alone.
The water vapour they produce forms ice
  crystals in the upper troposphere
  (vapour trails and cirrus clouds) which
  trap the earth‘s heat.‖
 By George Monbiot. Published in the Guardian 28th February 2006



                    Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
                           We fly, We kill

―According to calculations by the Tyndall
  Centre for Climate Change Research, if you
  added the two effects together (it urges some
  caution as they are not directly comparable),
  aviation‘s emissions alone would exceed the
  government‘s target for the country‘s entire
  output of greenhouse gases in 2050 by
  around 134%(12).‖


 By George Monbiot. Published in the Guardian 28th February 2006



                   Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
     Global Temperature and Sea
               Level


―If we follow a business-as usual
   scenario, we will be creating a hammer
   hitting the Earth faster and harder than
   it has ever been hit. Except perhaps
   when the Earth was hit by the asteroid
   that killed the dinosaurs.‖


  Source: Dr. James Hansen; Is There Still Time to Avoid Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference’ with Global
  Climate?; Dec. 2005



                   Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
    Global Temperature and Sea
              Level




Source: Dr. James Hansen; Is There Still Time to Avoid Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference’ with
Global Climate?; Dec. 2005


                  Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
          Regional Climate Change


―In summary, with regard to regional
  climate:

as with global climate and sea level,
 business as-usual scenarios will
 produce basically another planet.‖


 Source: Dr. James Hansen; Is There Still Time to Avoid Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference’ with Global
 Climate?; Dec. 2005



                   Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
       Basically another planet

―How else can you describe climate
  change in which the Arctic becomes an
  open lake in the summer and fall, and
  most land areas on Earth experience
  mean warming this century that is 5-10
  times larger than the standard deviation
  of the past century?‖

 Source: Dr. James Hansen; Is There Still Time to Avoid Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference’ with
 Global Climate?; Dec. 2005




                    Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
                                          Miami

Miami:
Shows
flooding
that would
occur as
the result
of
projected
sea level
rise of
slightly
over 1 1/2
feet (.6
meters)
and storm
surge from
a 100-year
storm,
which will
occur
every 10
years by
the end of
the
century.
     Source: National Environment Trust



                       Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios
                        New York City

Animation shows flooding
   that would occur as the
   result of the storm
   surge from a Category
   II hurricane, combined
   with a projected sea
   level rise of 2.2 feet
   (0.7 meters) anticipated
   over the coming
   century. According to
   the National Hurricane
   Center, from 1900-
   1996 the Atlantic coast
   of the U.S. between
   Florida and Maine has
   experienced 78
   hurricane strikes of
   Category II or greater.                            Source: National Environment Trust



                  Sea level rise: Fraser Valley scenarios

								
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