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Jordan Telecommunications Report


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									Jordan Telecommunications Report Q3 2011

                                  Phone:    +44 20 8123 2220
                                  Fax:      +44 207 900 3970

                                                                                     Phone: +44 20 8123 2220

Jordan Telecommunications Report Q3 2011
Business Monitor International

Date: Jun, 2011
Pages: 96
Price: US$ 530.00
ID: J7E86105092EN

Four quarterly editions' price: US$ 975.00

BMI's analysis of the Jordanian telecoms market this quarter incorporates market data published by the
telecoms regulator the Telecommunications Regulatory Commission (TRC) and leading service providers.
These are France Telecom-backed Jordan Telecom (Orange), Zain Jordan, Qatar Telecom (Qtel)- owned
wi-tribe and Bahrain Telecom (Batelco)-owned Umniah. Our five-year forecast for the mobile, fixed and
broadband sectors are largely unchanged this quarter as the latest market data are in line with our previous
forecasts. Meanwhile, we are introducing our maiden ARPU forecast for the mobile market this quarter. Our
forecast is based on available market data and overall trends in the telecoms market.

With the return of relative calm to Jordan's political scene after protests for political reforms in early 2011,
the country's telecoms sector is repositioning itself to restore investor confidence and attract funds for
expanding and upgrading the network. In our previous report, we suggested potential investors are likely to
be hesitant about committing to long-term investments until political stability returns to most countries.

Although Jordan boasts relative stability, we note it is not insulated from the wider impact of political unrest
in the Middle East and North Africa. However, it is noteworthy that increased government spending is likely
to bolster private consumption and by implication, subscription to higher value telecoms services. We
expect increased subscriptions to the high-value service of data, particularly over wireless networks. Mobile
market leader Zain launched 3G network services in March 2011 to break Jordan Telecom's monopoly of
the market. We expect competition between Zain and Orange, Zain's rapid network expansion plans and
the increasing availability of low-cost 3G-enabled devices to boost the take-up of 3G services. Meanwhile,
there is an increasing awareness of 3G networks as social networking sites such as Twitter and Facebook
and video streaming sites such Youtube. These played a key role in mobilising people for anti-government
protests across the Middle East and North Africa and are accessible over 3G networks and with mobile
devices. We therefore have a positive growth outlook for Jordan's 3G market and expect it to account for
up to 25% of total mobile subscriptions by 2015.

BMI calculates Jordan's mobile market grew by 7.1% y-o-y to reach 6.964mn subscribers at the end of
2010. This reflects a market penetration of 114%. Our figures are based on market data published by the
three major mobile operators and estimates for iDEN operator Xpress. The official figure from the TRC is
slightly lower because the regulator does not include subscriber numbers for Xpress. Again it seems the
regulator uses a much more metric way of counting active subscribers and resulted in disparity between its
figures and those of mobile operators Zain and Umniah. During the next five years, we expect Jordan's
mobile market to remain in an uptrend, albeit with lower growth rates towards the end of our forecast
period. By 2015 we expect mobile penetration in Jordan to reach 133%.

The broadband market registered strong growth in 2010 with estimated net additions of about 77,000
customers, most of them on WiMAX networks. According to the regulator's data, the number of WiMAX
subscriptions increased by 182% y-o-y to reach 92,490, while ADSL connections grew by 15.8% to reach
192, 846 subscribers at the end of 2010. Jordan Telecoms continues to dominate the ADSL market with a
market share of more than 83%. Meanwhile Umniah and wi-tribe account for about 40% of the WiMAX
market. BMI forecasts broadband penetration in Jordan to increase from 4.8% in 2010 to about 11.7% by
2015. Meanwhile, the growth of the broadband market, particularly WiMAX networks, is set to be the bane
of fixed-line voice subscriptions. This will be through the use of VoIP services, which becoming popularity in

Jordan Telecommunications Report Q3 2011                                                                           2
                                                                                  Phone: +44 20 8123 2220

Jordan. We therefore expect the decline of fixed-line connections to continue over the next five years, with
penetration falling to about 6.8% by 2015.

Table of Content
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Mobile SWOT Analysis
Wireline SWOT Analysis
Political SWOT Analysis
Economic SWOT Analysis
Business Environment SWOT Analysis
Industry Business Environment Overview
Business Environment Analysis
Table: Table Headertable:headerMiddle East And North Africa Q311 Telecoms Business Environment
Industry Risk And Country Risk Weigh Down On Jordan's Business Environment Rating
Industry Forecast
Table: Table: Telecoms Sector -- Mobile -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Table: Telecoms Sector -- Fixed-Line -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Table: Telecoms Sector -- Internet -- Historical Data & Forecasts
Market Data Analysis
Table: Table: Jordan Mobile Market, Q410
Table: Table: Jordan Mobile Net Additions, Q209-Q410 ('000)
Table: Table -- Mobile Contract Wins
Table: Table: Selected VAS Services
Mobile Operator Data
Table: Table: Jordan Mobile Market Overview
Table: Orange (Jordan Telecom)
Table: Table: Fastlink (Zain)
Table: Table: Umniah (Batelco)
Table: Table: XPress
Industry Trend Analysis
VAS Evolves
M-Commerce Should Find A Willing Audience
Table: Fixed Line Subscribers, Q109 - Q410 ('000)
Table: Table Headertable:headerJordan Internet Subscribers By Technology, Q109 - Q410
Regulatory Development
Table: Jordan: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
Vendor Profile
Table: Ericsson Quarterly Net Sales By Division, SEKmn
Company Profiles
Jordan Telecom
Zain Jordan
Market Overview
Table: Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview

Jordan Telecommunications Report Q3 2011                                                                        3
                                                                  Phone: +44 20 8123 2220

Table: Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
Table: Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Table: Ratings Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators97

Jordan Telecommunications Report Q3 2011                                                        4
                                                                                                                              Phone: +44 20 8123 2220

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