Airdrie Bathgate Line Economic Activity and Location Impacts Analysis November

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Airdrie-Bathgate Line: Economic Activity and Location Impacts Analysis
Final Report Prepared by MVA for West Lothian Council
November 2005

photo size: 4.5 cm wide crop to 3.7 cm high

In Association With: David Simmonds Consultancy, Hargest & Wallace Ltd

Document Control
Project Title: Airdrie-Bathgate Line: Economic Activity and Location Impacts Analysis MVA Project Number: Document Type: WP Reference: Temporary Directory & File Name: Final Workspace Location c34010 Final Report SL H:\tp\C34010 Aird-Bath EALI\final report\AirdrieBathgate-EALI-v8.doc

Document Approval
Primary Author: Other Author(s): Scott Leitham David Simmonds Keith Hargest Reviewer(s): Formatted by: John Baggaley Jane Rumbles

Distribution
Issue 1 2 3 4 5 Date 20/04/2005 20/05/2005 03/06/2005 29/07/2005 02/12/2005 Distribution WLC / NLC WLC / NLC WLC / NLC WLC / NLC WLC / NLC Comments 1st draft - incomplete 2nd draft - incomplete Full Draft Final Draft Final Report

Contents

1 1.1 1.2 1.3 2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 3 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.10 3.11 3.12 4 4.1 4.2 4.3 5 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5

Introduction Scottish Transport Appraisal Guidance (STAG) EALI Approach Structure of Report The Airdrie to Bathgate Scheme Background Historical Context New Services Scope of Impacts Additional public transport A broader vision City Regions Socio-Economic Baseline Introduction Current public transport provision Economic Overview Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation data Household Car Availability Travel to Work patterns in Airdrie-Bathgate area Travel to work destinations Recent developments in employment, access to other services European Funding Status Overview of Demographic / Economic Forecasts Planning Context Summary Business Interviews & Other Consultation Introduction Summary of Business Interview Findings Wider Stakeholder Consultation Land Use – Transport Modelling Results Introduction Modelling Approach and Background Impacts: testing and results Appraisal Conclusions

1 1 2 2 5 5 6 7 8 15 16 17 19 19 19 21 32 35 35 36 37 39 40 42 43 45 45 45 59 63 63 63 68 71 75

Airdrie-Bathgate Line: Economic Activity and Location Impacts Analysis

Contents

6 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 7 7.1 7.2

Development Context Introduction Development Impacts Developer Comments TELMoS Modelling Results Land Use Planning Implications Relationship to Planning Policy Other Government Policies Conclusions Summary Conclusions

77 77 77 78 79 81 83 87 89 89 89

Tables Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table 3.1 Airdrie town centre to Livingston Almondvale Boulevard 3.2 Airdrie town centre to Edinburgh Park 3.3 Bathgate (King St) to Glasgow city centre* 3.4 Caldercruix to Livingston Almondvale Boulevard 3.5 Armadale to Glasgow city centre* 3.6 Population & GDP summary 3.7 Economic activity and unemployment 3.8 Population statistics 3.9 Earnings and jobs by sector 3.10 Relevant West Lothian and North Lanarkshire wards 3.11 Levels of Unemployment & Economic Activity (2001 census) 3.12 Levels of Population and recent change (2001 census) 3.13 Qualification levels (2001 census) 3.14 Population projections (2002-18) 4.1 Breakdown of sample of firms 4.2 Anticipated use of new line 5.1 Regional Economic Model Sectors 5.2 SP allocations - residential development and employment land 5.3 Summary of forecast impacts of line 20 20 20 20 21 24 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 42 46 55 66 69 76

Figures Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure 2.1 2.2 2.3 4.1 4.2 4.3 5.1 Location of Airdrie-Bathgate line in Scottish context Location of Airdrie-Bathgate line in local context Stations potentially affected by line re-opening Location of sample of firms Bathgate/Livingston firms’ main markets / suppliers / competitors Airdrie firms’ main markets / suppliers / competitors Main model components and linkages 6 6 9 46 48 49 65

All following Chapter 3 Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 North Lanarkshire Wards West Lothian Wards Community Regeneration Fund areas – Glasgow Community Regeneration Fund areas – Airdrie area Community Regeneration Fund areas – Bathgate area

Airdrie-Bathgate Line: Economic Activity and Location Impacts Analysis

Contents

Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure

3.6 SIMD Overall, Airdrie area 3.7 SIMD Overall, Bathgate area 3.8 SIMD Overall, Airdrie-Bathgate corridor area 3.9 SIMD Employment, Airdrie Area 3.10 SIMD Employment, Bathgate area 3.11 SIMD Employment, Airdrie-Bathgate corridor 3.12 SIMD Income, Airdrie area 3.13 SIMD Income, Bathgate area 3.14 SIMD Income, Airdrie-Bathgate corridor area 3.15 SIMD Education, Airdrie area 3.16 SIMD Education, Bathgate area 3.17 SIMD Education, Airdrie Bathgate corridor area 3.18 Household Car availability in corridor – East Glasgow 3.19 Household Car availability in corridor – Airdrie / Coatbridge 3.20 Household Car availability in corridor – Bathgate area 3.21 Household Car availability in corridor – Airdrie-Bathgate corridor 3.22 Travel to work destinations, North Lanarkshire, Car 3.23 Travel to work destinations, West Lothian, Car 3.24 Travel to work destinations, North Lanarkshire, PT 3.25 Travel to work destinations, West Lothian, PT 3.26 Total volume of travel to work trips (destinations) – Airdrie area 3.27 Total volume of travel to work trips (destinations) – Bathgate area 3.28 Total volume of travel to work trips (destinations) – Corridor area 3.29 Total volume of travel to work trips (destinations) – Glasgow area 3.30 Total volume of travel to work trips (destinations) – Edinburgh area 3.31 Main job losses in North Lanarkshire (2001-) 3.32 Main job gains in North Lanarkshire (2001-) 3.33 Main job losses in West Lothian (2001-) 3.34 Main job gains in West Lothian (2001-) 3.35 Location of major employers - West Lothian (2005) 3.36 Location of major employers – North Lanarkshire (2005) 3.37 Location of employers in vicinity of line – West Lothian 3.38 Location of employers in vicinity of line – North Lanarkshire 3.39 Location of council schools and services in vicinity of line – West Lothian 3.40 Location of council services in vicinity of line – North Lanarkshire 3.41 Location of council schools in vicinity of line – North Lanarkshire

All Following Chapter 5 Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure Figure 5.2 TELMoS Model sub-regions 5.3 Absolute changes in employment, 2021 5.4 Absolute changes in population, 2021 5.5 Percentage changes in employment, 2021 5.6 Percentage changes in population, 2021 5.7 Corridor Level Impacts 5.8 Corridor definitions 5.9 District level impacts 5.10 Increase in resident workers and CRF areas – Corridor area 5.11 Increase in resident workers and CRF areas – Airdrie area 5.12 Increase in resident workers and CRF areas – Bathgate area

Appendices Appendix A Appendix B Study Brief Assisted Area Status Map

Airdrie-Bathgate Line: Economic Activity and Location Impacts Analysis

Summary
The proposed re-opening of the railway line between Airdrie and Bathgate is a significant railway scheme in the context of passenger travel in central Scotland. It is proposed that the existing Helensburgh / Balloch to Airdrie train services are extended via the new line to Edinburgh Waverley. The introduction of these new train services will provide a step-change in the quality of public transport available for those travelling east from Airdrie / Coatbridge and west from Bathgate / Livingston in particular. It will also be possible to travel by train on a direct service between areas west of Glasgow (north of the Clyde) / eastern Glasgow / Coatbridge / Airdrie and West Lothian / Edinburgh. Areas of West Lothian and North Lanarkshire affected by the new line will also gain improved access to the national rail network, via better links to Glasgow and Edinburgh respectively. This report documents the findings of an appraisal of the Economic Activity and Location Impacts (EALI) of the proposed re-opening of the line, which assumes four new intermediate stations at Plains, Caldercruix, Blackridge and Armadale. The EALI analysis forms an important element of the ‘Economy’ appraisal within the Scottish Transport Appraisal Guidance (STAG). It sets out to identify and appraise the impacts of the line, with particular emphasis on changes in the location of employment and population resulting from the new line. It is anticipated that the re-opening of the line will act as a catalyst for regeneration along the corridor area between and including Airdrie and Bathgate. This includes the communities of Armadale, Blackridge, Plains, and Caldercruix, settlements spread along the A89. corridors. These communities have suffered from industrial decline in recent decades and are now somewhat over-looked and ‘bypassed’ by other transport There are numerous areas of deprivation (as identified by the Scottish Executive’s SIMD) along the corridor which would be expected to benefit from the new employment and other opportunities (eg education and training) brought about by the new line. ownership. In addition to regeneration, West Lothian in particular has a substantial allocation of housing development in the current Edinburgh and Lothians Structure Plan. North Lanarkshire Council is reviewing its Local Plan coverage. There is significant private sector interest in potential housing development in the Caldercruix area. The new line can create opportunities to accommodate this development in a more sustainable way by integrating planning decisions with the new rail link. Joint Structure Plan. The new line will play a significant role in providing additional links between Scotland’s two largest ‘city regions’ (Glasgow and Edinburgh), with West Lothian and North Lanarkshire forming an effective ‘bridge’ in between. It could play a vital role in re-energising an area which has under-performed over a long period, and could act as a catalyst to transform the area into a location of strategic importance, capitalising on what would be excellent public transport and road links to the two city regions. The Airdrie-Bathgate line also has potential implications for Glasgow and the Clyde Valley These areas also have relatively low levels of car

iAirdrie-Bathgate Line: Economic Activity and Location Impacts Analysis

Summary

The approach taken to the study was a mix of analysis of existing data, consultation with businesses and stakeholders, and the use of a land use – transport interaction forecasting model. A comprehensive picture of the socio-economic characteristics of the areas affected by the line was established. This highlighted: • a picture, where in general the North Lanarkshire economy is lagging behind the national average with the West Lothian economy out-performing the national average by some measures; • projections of significant increases in population in West Lothian and gradual decline in North Lanarkshire, the latter echoing the national picture; • large areas of deprivation (as classified by the Scottish Executive’s key SIMD) in east Glasgow, Airdrie, Coatbridge, Plains, Caldercruix; • • smaller pockets of deprivation in Armadale and Bathgate; low levels of car ownership in many localities throughout the rail corridor area; • very limited travel to work by public transport east from Airdrie and west of Bathgate; • major concentrations of job opportunities accessible via the new line in Glasgow city centre, west Edinburgh and Edinburgh city centre; • other employment opportunities in the Airdrie and Bathgate / Livingston areas in close proximity to the line; and • significant recent changes in employment opportunities in the Bathgate / Livingston and Airdrie areas with several high profile business closures and new businesses being established in recent years.

The appraisal of the potential impacts of the new line was therefore considered in this context. A programme of detailed interview surveys was carried out with businesses across a range of sectors in North Lanarkshire and West Lothian. The objectives were to build a picture of the operational characteristics of businesses in the rail corridor area, to establish views on the pros and cons of being located there, and to pick up perceived constraints on business growth in the area. The main findings can be summarised as: • businesses in the area are generally optimistic about the future and have been stable or expanding in recent years; • over half reported difficulties in recruiting suitable staff – identified as a constraint on growth;

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Summary

•

there is evidence of labour market exhaustion in some sectors (call / contact centres) and lack of skilled staff in other sectors (eg trades, plant, sales);

•

the sample of North Lanarkshire firms were more locally orientated in terms of their geographical operations (markets and suppliers) than those in West Lothian;

•

poor public transport, parking or congestion are identified as negative characteristics of their location by some firms;

•

‘car driver – single occupant’ is by some margin the most common method of travel to work;

• •

there is a reasonable awareness of the rail proposals; more than half of the firms thought that the line would be used in their business; and

•

twenty-six of the 37 firms thought they would benefit from improved access to labour.

The above findings suggest that the re-opening of the railway line could potentially address a number of constraints on growth and regeneration in the area. The land-use transport model (the Scottish Executive’s TMfS / TELMoS model) was used to provide a quantitative forecast of the effects of the line in terms of the distribution of employment and population. This is based on a run of the model with and without the new line with the national impact set at a zero change. The results indicate that the re-opening scheme will have positive impacts on the numbers of residents and numbers of jobs in the corridor it serves. There will be some redistribution of activity within the West Lothian and North Lanarkshire areas, but both local authority areas show net gains in both residents and jobs. The impacts are modest in percentage terms, though the absolute figures involved – nearly 900 additional jobs and 1,900 additional residents in West Lothian - are significant. North Lanarkshire is forecast to see increases of 400 jobs and 1,000 residents. The scale of the impacts is a result of the limited role which public transport currently plays in accessibility, balanced against the fact that this particular scheme is potentially important for access to central Glasgow and central Edinburgh where public transport is more important than average. Significantly, for the Airdrie ‘corridor’ of North Lanarkshire, the results suggest that the new line would play a role in reducing or reversing the projected decline in population in the area. The increases in employment are seen almost entirely in services, public and private. Apart from the element of purely local services to serve the additional households, there is some additional relocation into the corridor of business services which is due to the increasing accessibility to labour, a result of the area being an improved location for businesses wanting to draw on the labour markets of both Edinburgh and Glasgow.

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Summary

The appraisal of the impacts indicates that the scheme will assist the achievement of Scottish policies as set out in the Assisted Areas map. At a more local level it will, on balance, also give some support to the policies set out in the two relevant Structure Plans and in the Objective 2 designation for parts of West Lothian, and in relation to deprived areas (as defined by SIMD / Community Regeneration Fund) particularly towards the western end of the corridor. ‘Net’, ie Scotland level impacts of the proposed scheme have not been estimated, and the STAG process accepts that these effects will be relevant to only the very largest schemes. effect at the Scotland level. The proposals were also considered in the context of Government Policy and Strategic Planning Policy. It is evident that the proposed Airdrie-Bathgate railway will support a wide range of national and strategic policies by virtue of the following: • the promotion of a more sustainable mode of transport compared to the private car, which is the dominant mode used in the area at the present time; • improvement in accessibility to employment opportunities for all sections of the community, thus supporting social inclusion; • improvement of access to labour markets and product markets for existing businesses throughout the central belt; • • provision of infrastructure that supports major land releases; and support to urban and rural regeneration. It is concluded however, that the scheme would undoubtedly have a beneficial rather than adverse

The Study has therefore established a number of ways in which the scheme produces positive benefits from the point of view of STAG EALI. In headline terms, the line is forecast to bring significant benefits in the shape of additional population and employment, to both West Lothian and North Lanarkshire. The scheme tested was based on four new intermediate stations. The results have demonstrated significant EALI benefits at the local and local authority level assuming this configuration of stations and services. The importance of city regions and the economic significance and potential of West Lothian and North Lanarkshire in developing the city regions of Edinburgh and Glasgow has been recognised by the Scottish Executive. strengthen the links between North Lanarkshire and economic development and collaboration in these areas. The new Line would furthering West Lothian,

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1 Introduction
1.1 Scottish Transport Appraisal Guidance (STAG) 1.1.1 The Scottish Executive launched the Scottish Transport Appraisal Guidance (STAG) as a consultation document in 2001, and then formally in 2003. It is now a requirement that all transport projects for which Scottish Executive support or approval is required, shall be appraised in accordance with this guidance. 1.1.2 An important new element was added to previous approaches to appraisal with the introduction of STAG, known as Economic Activity and Location Impacts (EALI) analysis. For the first time, there was a requirement to consider a wider range of economic impacts, beyond traditional cost-benefit approaches, as part of the appraisal process for all significant new transport proposals. 1.1.3 The main aim of EALI analysis is to describe the impacts of any transport investment or policy using the measures of employment and / or income. The analysis is intended to identify how transport projects can affect the economic performance or circumstances of different geographical areas, and also capture those economic impacts which the standard cost–benefit analysis based approach (know in STAG as Transport Economic Efficiency (TEE)) may, in certain circumstances fail to capture. 1.1.4 In STAG, EALI analysis can be reported in two ways: • • as a net impact at the Scotland level; and in terms of its gross components, which will distinguish impacts on particular areas and / or on particular groups of society. 1.1.5 It is recognised by the Scottish Executive that it is likely that significant net impacts (which are truly additional to those impacts captured in standard cost-benefit analysis) at the Scotland level will occur in very few cases, mainly for only the largest (road) proposals. scheme. In this Report, the focus is therefore on the quantification of the local and distributional impacts of the ‘Net’ Scotland-level effects are considered briefly but on a qualitative basis only. 1.1.6 MVA, together with David Simmonds Consultancy and Hargest and

Wallace Planning Ltd were appointed by West Lothian Council (WLC), on behalf of a client group comprising WLC, North Lanarkshire Council (NLC), Scottish Enterprise Edinburgh & Lothians (SEEL), and Scottish Enterprise Lanarkshire (SEL) to undertake an EALI analysis of the proposed re-introduction of train services on a re-instated railway line between Airdrie in North Lanarkshire and Bathgate in West Lothian. in Appendix A for ease of reference. This EALI analysis is reported here in the chapters which follow. The Study Brief is included here

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Introduction

1.2 EALI Approach 1.2.1 The approach taken in this EALI analysis can be summarised as follows. An extensive ‘audit’ of the existing situation in the areas affected by the new line allowed a comprehensive ‘baseline’ position to be established in terms of the key socio-economic indicators in the area. context. 1.2.2 A series of interviews with local businesses were undertaken in the areas of North Lanarkshire and West Lothian potentially affected by the new line. This allowed a picture to be established of how (a sample of) businesses in the area are currently operating, their views on future prospects for their businesses, and their views on how their current location affects their businesses. The interviews also explored how the provision of the new line may impact on their businesses in the future. 1.2.3 A range of other consultations were undertaken in order to explore, with a range of groups and organisations, how the opening of the new line may affect them. 1.2.4 Finally, the Scottish Executive’s Transport Model for Scotland (TMfS) and Transport Economic Land Use Model for Scotland (TELMoS) forecasting models were used to provide a consistent, quantitative analysis of (i) the impact of the line on the location of population and employment, and (ii) the impact of the line on the economic performance of businesses by sector. 1.2.5 The modelling results and other findings were then analysed in terms of the potential impacts of the line on the land and property development market, and local and national planning policy. 1.2.6 The outcomes of each of the above elements are then summarised and overall EALI conclusions are drawn. 1.2.7 Note that the study has been based on one set of station and service configurations. Further analysis of the case for individual stations along the new section of line is being undertaken elsewhere. 1.3 Structure of Report 1.3.1 The EALI analysis is presented in six further Chapters. 1.3.2 Chapter 2 outlines the development of the scheme to date, provides the specification of the scheme assumed here, and gives an overview of the likely scope of the impacts of the scheme. The identification and assessment of the impacts of the line could then be viewed in this

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Introduction

1.3.3 Chapter 3 provides the socio economic ‘baseline’ giving a detailed picture of the areas which will be served by the new line and train services, including the planning policy context in the area. 1.3.4 Chapter 4 reports the main outcomes from the programme of interviews with local businesses and other key stakeholders. 1.3.5 In Chapter 5 the results of the land use –transport modelling are reported. This analysis is reported in terms of (i) identification of impacts and (ii) appraisal of impacts. 1.3.6 Chapter 6 then discusses the impacts of the line from the perspective of the market for land and property development. 1.3.7 The conclusions of the study are reported in Chapter 7.

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Introduction

PAGE 4 Airdrie-Bathgate Line: Economic Activity and Location Impacts Analysis

2 The Airdrie to Bathgate Scheme
2.1 Background 2.1.1 The proposal to re-open the Airdrie to Bathgate railway line was one of the main recommendations of the Central Scotland Transport Corridor Study (CSTCS) commissioned by the Scottish Executive, led by MVA, and published in September 2002. Since the original recommendation was accepted, the proposal has been taken forward with a comprehensive engineering and environmental study to confirm the scheme’s technical and operational feasibility, and to produce more robust and precise estimates of capital cost.1 At the time of writing, further work was underway to analyse different potential intermediate station sites and service patterns, in terms of the overall economic efficiency of the scheme. 2.1.2 It is planned to run a service of four trains per hour between Glasgow and Edinburgh via Airdrie and Bathgate. These services will call at a possible The line would provide a third to the M8 for both four potential new intermediate stations, at the communities of Plains, Caldercruix, Blackridge and Armadale. route, and providing a further Edinburgh – Glasgow rail link, increasing capacity substantially on this busy alternative Glasgow-Edinburgh and more local trips within the corridor. Journey times between Edinburgh and Glasgow will however, be longer than on the Shuttle service via Falkirk High as it is likely that trains will call at all existing intermediate stations (between Airdrie and Glasgow, and Bathgate and Edinburgh), ie the services on the new line will be more ‘local’ than ‘inter-city’ in nature. Journey times will be considerably shorter than those on the existing Glasgow Central – Shotts – Edinburgh line however2, so will offer a significantly better service than is found on this existing line at present. 2.1.3 The bulk of the passengers forecast to use the new line are not therefore travelling between Edinburgh and Glasgow city centres, most are forecast to travel between either Edinburgh or Glasgow and one of the intermediate stations in North Lanarkshire or West Lothian. However, for travel between some areas of Glasgow and Edinburgh, eg Edinburgh Park to Glasgow Charing Cross, the new line may well offer shorter door to door travel times than the line via Falkirk High. 2.1.4 The construction cost of the scheme is currently estimated to be around £225m, including contingencies. 2.1.5 Figures 2.1 and 2.2 below, show the location of the proposed

Airdrie-Bathgate line, firstly in the context of the Scottish rail network and secondly in a more local context.

See ‘Airdrie-Bathgate Railway Route Re-Opening Initial Technical Feasibility Report’, Babtie Group, June 2004 2 The journey time between Edinburgh and Glasgow via Falkirk is 50 minutes - going via Shotts takes between 65 minutes and 83 minutes.

1

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The Airdrie to Bathgate Scheme

Figure 2.1 Location of Airdrie-Bathgate line in Scottish context

Figure 2.2 Location of Airdrie-Bathgate line in local context

2.1.6 It is therefore clear that the construction of this line would represent a substantial addition to the Scottish rail network, adding capacity, flexibility, and new opportunities for rail travel in central Scotland. 2.2 Historical Context 2.2.1 The route between Glasgow and Edinburgh via Airdrie / Bathgate was constructed as a series of separate incremental projects over time, which eventually formed a complete route by 1849. It was always the case that this line provided slower services than the Edinburgh-Glasgow via Falkirk

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The Airdrie to Bathgate Scheme

High route, and the line mainly relied on coal freight to sustain its existence for many years. As the level of coal freight dropped, and competition from bus increased, passenger services were withdrawn in 1956. 2.2.2 The now freight-only line between Drumgelloch and Bathgate was then closed to all traffic in 1982, with the lines being lifted and replaced with a now well used cycle track. Passenger services from Glasgow to Airdrie remained and were extended slightly to Drumgelloch in 1989. Bathgate to Edinburgh passenger services were re-introduced in 1986, are well used, and have been credited with playing a significant role in the regeneration of Bathgate and West Lothian. 2.3 New Services 2.3.1 The proposed services on the new line would in effect be an extension of the existing Helensburgh / Balloch to Drumgelloch services. These services would now run at four trains per hour through to Edinburgh Waverley, and the current Bathgate to Edinburgh services would be discontinued. Between Glasgow Queen Street (low level) and Edinburgh Waverley, all trains would call at all existing stations: High Street, Bellgrove, Carntyne, Shettleston, Garrowhill, Haymarket. 2.3.2 In addition to service patterns where trains would call at all four of the potential new stations at Plains, Caldercruix, Blackridge and Armadale, the stations could be served by alternate trains and therefore have a frequency of two trains per hour, ie the trains would be skip-stopping. If follows that it in this case, it would not be possible to travel between some intermediate stations by train in this case. 2.3.3 Typical journey times, depending on the service specification, are planned to be (assuming Edinburgh Airport Rail Link is in place): • • • 72 minutes – Glasgow Queen Street to Edinburgh Waverley; 42 minutes – Bathgate to Glasgow Queen Street; and 47 minutes – Airdrie to Edinburgh Waverley. Easterhouse, Blairhill, Coatbridge, Coatdyke, Airdrie, Drumgelloch, Bathgate, Livingston North, Uphall, Edinburgh Park and

2.3.4 Its worth noting that it is assumed that half of the Glasgow Queen Street – Falkirk High - Edinburgh trains will in future stop at Edinburgh Park (currently travelling between Edinburgh Park and Glasgow Queen Street requires passengers to change at Falkirk High). The Airdrie-Bathgate line does not therefore add something new in this regard (ie direct trains between Glasgow Queen Street and Edinburgh Park) although travel between Edinburgh Park and Glasgow Queen Street will be served by additional trains.

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The Airdrie to Bathgate Scheme

2.3.5 The final service details of the scheme assumed for the EALI can therefore be summarised as follows: • Glasgow–Airdrie services extended through to Edinburgh, with stops at Drumgelloch, Plains, Caldercruix, Blackridge and Armadale, continuing to Bathgate, Livingston North, Uphall, Edinburgh Park, Haymarket and Edinburgh Waverley; • • two trains per hour stop at Drumgelloch, Plains and Blackridge; and two trains per hour stop at Caldercruix and Armadale.

2.3.6 A significant aspect of the proposals is that there will be four trains per hour between Bathgate, Livingston North, Uphall and Edinburgh. This represents a major improvement in service quality on this route and will also relieve peak hour overcrowding. 2.4 Scope of Impacts 2.4.1 The new line will have a significant impact in terms of improving accessibility by public transport across a fairly wide area of central Scotland. The local authority areas of North Lanarkshire and West Lothian are those primarily affected by the proposals, although there will also be impacts in Edinburgh, Glasgow and further afield. The line would also provide improved links to a wider range of GNER and Virgin Trains services, serving a range of national destinations. 2.4.2 The areas at either end of the line (in particular Airdrie / Coatbridge and Bathgate) have been affected over a number of years by the decline of traditional industries. The area along the proposed new line itself (Plains – Caldercruix – Blackridge – Armadale) has suffered similarly and is currently something of an overlooked and forgotten area, suffering from lack of investment and poor infrastructure. These factors mean that in addition to the business case being developed for the new line, there is a strong regeneration aspect to the proposals. This regeneration can take two main forms: • increased employment, educational, and other opportunities for current resident populations – ie those living within the catchment area of the new stations will have access to a greater number of employment opportunities, offering the prospects of (a) employment rather than unemployment, and (b) higher quality / better paid employment; and

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The Airdrie to Bathgate Scheme

•

increased attractiveness of the area as a location for business and for development – ie the new line can ‘open up’ areas and transform their attractiveness for residential and commercial development (both in market and planning terms). Residential development can bring new people and investment into the area, potentially relieving overheated housing markets elsewhere and contributing to improved labour market efficiency. Improved transport links can also encourage other types of development, which can bring new jobs directly into the area, and can also bring about changes in the planning status of certain sites/areas.

2.4.3 The potential impacts of the new train services associated with each relevant station are considered below in terms of those living in, and businesses located in, the sphere of influence of each station. The stations referred to are shown in Figure 2.3 below.

Figure 2.3 Stations potentially affected by line re-opening

Edinburgh / Edinburgh Park stations 2.4.4 Residents of Edinburgh will benefit from the increased train frequencies to West Lothian, although this is not likely to be a significant impact. They will also benefit from new rail links to North Lanarkshire and eastern parts of Glasgow. This latter effect is likely to be the more significant effect as it opens up entirely new travel opportunities, rather than improving existing ones. These new opportunities would be expected to take some traffic off of the M8 motorway, as some travellers transfer to the new rail services.

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The Airdrie to Bathgate Scheme

2.4.5 Employers based in Edinburgh, particularly areas of Edinburgh where travel to work by car is affected by a lack of parking provision, will see an increase in their potential labour market. The labour pool available to Edinburgh This The firms, accessible by public transport, will be extended across new areas of West Lothian, into North Lanarkshire, and indeed eastern Glasgow. could potentially relieve Edinburgh’s labour shortages in key sectors.

new option of travelling by train from Edinburgh to North Lanarkshire would also be of benefit to some businesses, allowing some business trips to switch from car to train. Uphall station 2.4.6 Uphall station has only a small ‘walk in’ catchment – it mainly acts as a Park and Ride station (with approximately 100 spaces), and is currently operating beyond its Park and Ride capacity – ie a large amount of overspill parking is evident. Studies have shown that the origins of those using the station for Park and Ride are fairly local, predominantly the eastern parts of Livingston, and that around 70% of station users arrive by car. 2.4.7 The benefits to users of Uphall would be a much improved service to Edinburgh (up from two to four trains per hour) and new rail services to North Lanarkshire, Glasgow and areas west of Glasgow north of the River Clyde. Eastbound, the increase in frequency allows more ‘turn up and go’ type travel behaviour, whereas currently journeys need to be timed to meet specific trains. 2.4.8 The proposals are likely to result in significantly increased demand for Park and Ride at Uphall, for existing destinations to the east and new destinations to the west. demand. total. Livingston North station 2.4.9 The walk in catchment area for Livingston North is predominantly residential, although walk routes to the station can be rather indirect, given the geography and layout of Livingston. 2.4.10 The station has a car park with approximately 75 spaces – like Uphall, this is also operating well beyond its design capacity. A further 220 spaces are being added during 2005. Users of Livingston North car park tend to have their origins in the western parts of Livingston, but in this case, only around 40% of station users arrive by car. Current plans are for an increase in parking provision of 67 spaces during 2005. This may not cater for all present day There is reportedly a perceived need for around 200 spaces in

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Airdrie-Bathgate Line: Economic Activity and Location Impacts

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The Airdrie to Bathgate Scheme

2.4.11 There will be an improved rail service to Edinburgh (four trains per hour from two) and new services to North Lanarkshire, Glasgow and the west. The proposals are likely to result in significantly increased demand for Park and Ride to destinations both east and west. 2.4.12 There will be new employment opportunities for local residents, principally in Airdrie / Coatbridge and Glasgow city centre for residents without access to a car. In addition, there will be an alternative mode of access for those residents currently using their car to access jobs in Glasgow city centre and parts of North Lanarkshire. the Livingston area. The provision of Park and Ride services to the west will have a further effect in increasing the residential attractiveness of Although it is possible to use Livingston South as a Park and Ride station for accessing Glasgow, the journey time to Glasgow Central station is typically around one hour and five minutes – that would compare with around 45 minutes from Livingston South to Glasgow Queen Street (depending upon the service configuration adopted), a significant improvement, particularly when combined with a higher frequency service. 2.4.13 For employers in Livingston, a key issue is the distance to, and relative inaccessibility of Livingston North station, when viewed relative to the main centres of employment in Livingston. The new train services will bring access to a large potential new labour market from North Lanarkshire, east Glasgow, and to a lesser extent Edinburgh. However no major employer is currently located within walking distance of Livingston North station. The promotion of bus services between the station and major employment sites is key to accessing this new potential labour market. The new opportunities for Park and Ride at Livingston North in terms of travelling to Glasgow city centre would also be of benefit to businesses in Livingston, providing an alternative to the car for these business trips. 2.4.14 Livingston town centre has seen a significant expansion of retail activity within the last five years with the opening of the McArthur Glen Designer Outlet, the upgrading of existing shopping centres, and the opening of major supermarket and non food retail centres. These developments have made Livingston increasingly ‘self sufficient’ in retailing terms. Access by public transport to Livingston as a retail centre will be greatly increased for those living in North Lanarkshire, making Livingston a realistic alternative for Coatbridge / Airdrie residents in particular. The retail sector in Livingston could therefore benefit to some extent from these improved links by public transport with North Lanarkshire. Bathgate station 2.4.15 Bathgate station currently has a fairly central location within the town – although the station itself will be relocated to a site slightly further south of the town under the proposals.

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The Airdrie to Bathgate Scheme

2.4.16 Given its location, there is a large potential walk in catchment from within the town, although nearly 50% of station users come by car. Bathgate actually has a relatively small car park of around 50 spaces (with a further 60 being added in 2005), and surveys have shown that this capacity is far exceeded by the demand for parking at the station. 2.4.17 These studies have also shown that Bathgate has a far wider catchment area than Livingston South or Uphall (being at the end of the current line), with some car trips coming from as far as Airdrie and Carluke to use Park and Ride. There is also evidence of Armadale and Blackridge residents using Bathgate station for Park and Ride. 2.4.18 Bathgate residents and station Park and Ride users will get a significantly improved service to Edinburgh and new services to North Lanarkshire, Glasgow and beyond. The new services will reduce / remove the need to use Park and Ride at Bathgate for North Lanarkshire (and Armadale / Blackridge) residents, but is likely to lead to a significant increase in demand for Park and Ride at Bathgate – the current proposals are for more than 300 car parking spaces to be provided at the new station. 2.4.19 Employers (or potential employers) in the walk in catchment of Bathgate station itself will immediately have much improved access to the labour markets of North Lanarkshire and east Glasgow. This will also give a boost to Bathgate as a potential location for new employers. Beyond the walk in catchment of the new station, the key again is bus links from the station to employment centres. Good bus links and interchange will significantly increase the numbers of potential employees within a given travel time (from eg the Pyramids business centre) by public transport. Without these bus links (or perhaps dedicated mini-bus type services) the effect of the new rail services on improving accessibility will be smaller. Train services to Glasgow and improved Park and Ride facilities will also benefit businesses in Bathgate and the surrounding area, providing a viable alternative to the car for business travel to Glasgow city centre in particular. 2.4.20 West Lothian in general is facing particular demands to accommodate a substantial share of the new housing development identified in the current Edinburgh and Lothians Structure Plan. An important potential impact of the Airdrie-Bathgate proposals could be to increase the attractiveness of areas of West Lothian as a location for new housing development – assisting in meeting the Structure Plan requirements. Possible Intermediate Stations 2.4.21 The proposals are considering the potential for new intermediate stations at Armadale and Blackridge in West Lothian, and Caldercruix and Plains in North Lanarkshire.

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The Airdrie to Bathgate Scheme

2.4.22 The proposed station at Armadale is close to the site of the previous station, although to the east of Station Road – this means that the station is located some distance from the existing settlement of Armadale itself. This walk distance would act, for some, as a significant deterrent to using the station. There are currently a large number of houses recently built and under construction at Armadale, and proposals for more new housing developments which will ‘infill’ this area, linking the station to the existing town, and making the walk from Armadale less exposed. Armadale has a population of around 9000, by some distance the largest settlement of the four proposed stations, and has been identified as one of West Lothian’s Core Development Areas. 2.4.23 At Blackridge, the site of the proposed station is east of Harthill Road, requiring a new access road from the A89. This station is much closer to the village than is the case at Armadale, and around 1600 people live in Blackridge. 2.4.24 The proposed station at Caldercruix is located just west of the village (which takes it closer to Plains), due to engineering constraints and the building over of the site of the ‘original’ Caldercruix station. station is also to be determined. around 2000. 2.4.25 Finally, the option for Plains is broadly to construct a new station on the site of the previous station. Plains is around the same size as Caldercruix. 2.4.26 New and existing residents of all four settlements would have completely new opportunities to travel west and east by fast, high quality, public transport, Livingston, opening up many and new employment areas in opportunities as in well the as Edinburgh Glasgow particular, Proposals for new housing at Caldercruix are also being developed. The exact location of the The population of Caldercruix is

North Lanarkshire. 2.4.27 Residents of areas beyond the immediate catchment of the stations would benefit to a lesser degree via Park and Ride opportunities, depending on their personal car availability and parking opportunities at each of the stations. Babtie’s reported an initial provision for 30, 50 and 50 spaces at Plains, Blackridge, and Armadale respectively. location of the station. 2.4.28 There are currently no significant large employers in these settlements which will be directly affected by these proposals. Only a limited provision is proposed for Caldercruix, where there remains uncertainly as to the exact

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The Airdrie to Bathgate Scheme

Drumgelloch Station 2.4.29 Drumgelloch station is currently at the end of the line, and is served by a single track from Airdrie which carries two trains per hour. There is no significant car parking provision at this station. A small number of additional spaces would be provided as part of the scheme, but the station does have a significant potential walk in catchment, including the Drumgelloch, Craigneuk, and Clarkston areas. Note that a further aspect of the proposals is the possible relocation of Drumgelloch station to a new site at Clarkston where significant parking could be provided. 2.4.30 Those residents in the walk in catchment of Drumgelloch would benefit from new rail services (two per hour) to the West Lothian and the Edinburgh areas, opening up significant new employment and other opportunities, eg in education and training. Airdrie Station 2.4.31 There are major engineering developments planned for Airdrie station as part of the proposals in terms of platform (re)construction etc. The station has a central location within Airdrie. Most of Airdrie, except some northern areas, lies within a one kilometre radius of the station, so there is a large potential walk in catchment. 2.4.32 There are around 150 parking spaces at Airdrie station at the moment, and the car park is reported to be operating at or beyond capacity. Being the end of the line as far as Park and Ride facilities are concerned, it is anticipated that Airdrie station has a fairly dispersed pattern of Park and Ride users. The Airdrie-Bathgate proposals will actually result in a loss of some parking spaces in the short term, but SPT / NLC are considering plans to significantly increase parking provision at Airdrie station in the near future. 2.4.33 The train service west of Airdrie will be unchanged from the present day and the new services will provide four trains per hour east to West Lothian and Edinburgh. 2.4.34 For residents of Airdrie, the main effect of the proposals is to open up a potentially wide range of employment and other opportunities in West Lothian and Edinburgh, which would have previously not been feasible using public transport. Airdrie has predominantly low levels of car ownership, and pockets of high unemployment and deprivation remain. Improved access to a wider range of employment, educational and leisure opportunities, combined with other policy initiatives is a key to tackling these problems.

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The Airdrie to Bathgate Scheme

2.4.35 Employers in Airdrie will also benefit from a larger potential labour market giving a wider range of skills, from West Lothian and Edinburgh. Employers would gain from direct rail links to Edinburgh Park and Edinburgh city centre itself, giving an alternative to the use of the car for business journeys, again reducing traffic on the M8 motorway. Stations between Coatdyke and Balloch / Helensburgh (excluding Glasgow city centre) 2.4.36 All services using the new Airdrie-Bathgate line will run from Balloch or Helensburgh through to Edinburgh. Residents in the catchments of stations west of Glasgow Queen Street on this line will therefore benefit from improved access to West Lothian and Edinburgh via a direct service, where previously changes would have been required at Glasgow Queen Street (low level to high level) and Edinburgh Park / Haymarket (if West Lothian were the destination). labour markets. 2.4.37 Those east Glasgow residents living in the catchment area of stations between Coatdyke and Glasgow Queen Street (where almost the whole area is classified as employment deprived) will also benefit from a step change in travel opportunities by public transport to West Lothian and Edinburgh, and the employment and training opportunities associated with this. There are currently relatively few major employers in this area that will benefit from the extended train services, although there are significant development proposals in this corridor which would benefit from the link to the east in future. Glasgow city centre 2.4.38 The main effect on employers in Glasgow city centre will be much improved access to the labour markets and businesses of West Lothian – previously only accessible by car, relatively indirect / infrequent bus routes (or bus journeys requiring interchange) and the slow Glasgow Central – Shotts – Edinburgh railway line. Again, the train will provide an alternative to the car for business travel between Glasgow city centre and West Lothian. 2.5 Additional public transport 2.5.1 A key objective of the Airdrie-Bathgate proposals in EALI terms is to create improved links between employers and potential employees. In particular, the proposed new train services have the potential to link areas identified as employment employment). deprived (in SIMD terms – see Chapter 3) with new employment opportunities (both in terms of the quantity and quality of Businesses in this area would also benefit from direct rail links to Edinburgh and possibly a small expansion of their potential

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The Airdrie to Bathgate Scheme

2.5.2 Although the new train services will create opportunities to access jobs in Glasgow and Edinburgh city centres (and the major employment areas of west Edinburgh) for those living in North Lanarkshire and West Lothian, it will be shown in Chapter 3 that the major centres of employment in North Lanarkshire and West Lothian are not in the immediate vicinity of stations on the new line. In order to maximise the EALI, the existing links between relevant stations and major centres of employment may require improvement. 2.5.3 For example, the current bus services which link Livingston North station with destinations such as Livingston town centre and Livingston Kirkton Campus tend to be indirect and slow. There may be a case for the provision of ‘shuttle bus’ type services which would be timed to link with train arrivals and departures at Livingston North, and link the main employment centres without deviating through residential areas.3 2.5.4 In North Lanarkshire, the main employment centres are north and south of Airdrie, centring on Cumbernauld, Strathclyde Business Park – Bellshill – Motherwell areas. A relative lack of north – south public transport routes in North Lanarkshire has been identified as a weakness, and this would limit the effect of the new line in terms of people from West Lothian and Edinburgh accessing jobs in North Lanarkshire. 2.5.5 Integrating bus services with new train services, perhaps via a formal and marketed ‘interchange’ in Airdrie could potentially provide north – south links to these employment areas. 2.6 A broader vision 2.6.1 The previous paragraphs have sketched a picture of the developments which might arise as a result of improved services or new stations in each of the communities along the route. In the main, these changes would be incremental, reflecting the primacy of the car rather than the train in shaping travel horizons and patterns. It is however entirely reasonable to look for some more radical impacts which could occur as a result of the rail line – these would be scenarios which the line would enable, rather than be the natural out-workings of local improvements in accessibility. 2.6.2 We have identified two potential themes (and there may be others) which could be exploited in developing a more visionary scenario for development: • a significant part of the area served by the line forms a narrow (2-3 km wide) strip bounded on the south by the M8 and the north by the rail line – this area is therefore accessible by all key modes of transport, (including cycle) and could be exploited for a variety of

3

West Lothian Council have indicated that they would support a link from Livingston North to Kirkton Campus, should the line be re-opened, depending on suitable funding arrangements being found.

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The Airdrie to Bathgate Scheme

regional leisure purposes (activities which can attract people within a 45 to 60 minute catchment), much of Glasgow and Edinburgh would lie within this area; and • the line is expected to encourage residential development in an area which is currently relatively neglected (and therefore has no real precedent for large scale developments), and where the new station sites are not surrounded by current properties. There is therefore scope for considering ‘rail’ based development patterns, where the design specifically encourages low car use and maximises the focus on the rail line as the main travel link from the area.

2.6.3 Both of these themes require a proactive approach by the public bodies in terms of developing concepts, influencing the private sector and providing the public infrastructure needed to give the cohesion and stimulus for an integrated development. It will also be important to develop an integrated public transport network around the spine of the rail line – if this is not done both these potential development themes will fail – they will simply become car based because the M8 is so close. 2.7 City Regions 2.7.1 Scottish Executive policies are increasingly being framed in the context of ‘city regions’ – Glasgow, Edinburgh, Aberdeen, Dundee and their hinterlands. In terms of individual city regions, the Airdrie-Bathgate railway line would improve links between North Lanarkshire and Glasgow, and improve links between West Lothian and Edinburgh, ie within city regions. 2.7.2 As well as improving links within city regions, the line would also play a role in connecting the two main city regions of Glasgow and Edinburgh. 2.7.3 In addition to this, there is an increasing amount of partnership work between North Lanarkshire Council and West Lothian Council, in effect forming a bridge between the two main city regions. The line would improve this connectivity further, enhancing the city region concept.

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The Airdrie to Bathgate Scheme

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3 Socio-Economic Baseline
3.1 Introduction 3.1.1 This chapter provides an overview of key social and economic indicators within West Lothian and North Lanarkshire. The overarching purpose of this is to establish a context in which the impacts of the new rail services can be placed and assessed. 3.1.2 The development of this baseline covers a number of main areas, including: • • • • • • • • current public transport provision; economic overview of West Lothian and North Lanarkshire; detailed ward level data; Scottish Indices of Multiple Deprivation; household car availability; travel to work patterns (2001 Census); population and employment forecasts; and planning context.

3.1.3 There are a large number of maps associated with the above analysis – these are included at the end of this Chapter. 3.2 Current public transport provision 3.2.1 To set the scene, the current provision of public transport between Airdrie and areas east, and between Bathgate and areas west are very poor at present. The new rail services would provide a step change in the quality of public transport for these movements. 3.2.2 In order to demonstrate this, the www.travelinescotland.com website was used to obtain details of some illustrative journeys by public transport in this area. Tables 3.1 to 3.5 below summarise the resulting journeys. In each case, it was assumed that the destination must be reached by 0900 on a weekday, to represent a typical home to work trip.

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Socio-Economic Baseline

Table 3.1 Airdrie town centre to Livingston Almondvale Boulevard Travel times 0606-0750 route Airdrie – Blackridge (bus) – Bathgate (bus) – Livingston (bus) 0626-0820 Airdrie – Glasgow QS (train) – Glasgow Buchanan St (foot) – Livingston (bus) 0639-0840 Airdrie – Bellshill (bus) – West Calder (train) – Livingston (bus) 2 2 hr 01 mins 1 1 hr 54 mins changes 2 Duration 1 hr 44 mins

Table 3.2 Airdrie town centre to Edinburgh Park Travel times 0719-0848 route Airdrie – Cumbernauld (bus) – Camelon (train) – Edinburgh Park (train) 0656-0831 Airdrie – Glasgow QS (train) – Polmont (train) – Edinburgh Park (train) 2 1 hr 35 mins changes 2 Duration 1 hr 29 mins

Table 3.3 Bathgate (King St) to Glasgow city centre* Travel times 0720-0856 route Bathgate – Maddiston (bus) – Polmont (bus) – Glasgow (train) 0715-0850 • Bathgate – Harthill Services (bus) – Glasgow (bus) It is understood that there is a faster route between Bathgate and Glasgow, using service X14 (1 per day, not listed by Traveline). Table 3.4 Caldercruix to Livingston Almondvale Boulevard Travel times 0615-0750 route Caldercruix – Blackridge (bus) – Bathgate (bus) – Livingston (bus) 0637-0915 Caldercruix – Airdrie (bus) – Glasgow Queen St (train) – Glasgow Buchanan St (foot) – Livingston (bus) 2 2 hr 38 mins changes 2 Duration 1 hr 35 mins 1 1 hr 35 mins changes 2 Duration 1 hr 36 mins

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Socio-Economic Baseline

Table 3.5 Armadale to Glasgow city centre* Travel times 0730-0850 route Armadale – Harthill Services (bus) – Glasgow (bus) 0637-0915 Armadale – Edinburgh Park (bus) – Polmont (train) – Glasgow Queen Street (train) – Livingston (bus)
* It is understood that there is a faster route between Armadale and Glasgow, using service X14 (not listed by Traveline)

changes 1

Duration 1 hr 20 mins

2

1 hr 35 mins

3.2.3 It can be seen that virtually all of the journeys listed above are more than one and half hours in duration and most actually involve two changes. This would make these journeys extremely unattractive for commuters (or indeed shoppers or leisure travellers), especially when combined with a similar return journey in the evening. All of these journeys would see significantly reduced journey times with the introduction of the proposed rail services. 3.3 Economic Overview 3.3.1 The proposed line links Airdrie with Bathgate via the communities of Plains, Caldercruix, Blackridge and Armadale. The areas most immediately affected by the proposed new line have a long history of primarily industrial activity. Airdrie historically grew through its association with coal mining, oil shale extraction and cotton milling, and iron and steel in later years. Bathgate also grew as an industrial town and the area between Airdrie and Bathgate developed mainly on the back of significant mining, printing and quarrying activity. Activity associated with these traditional industries in the area has of course declined significantly in recent decades. 3.3.2 Although Airdrie and Bathgate have remained economically active, despite suffering a number of setbacks which are discussed below, the area along the A89 corridor between Airdrie and Bathgate has in recent years seen low levels of economic activity, very low levels of development and no significant investment in infrastructure. This area has therefore been in steady decline, being too remote from the main urban centres to compensate for the decline in the industries which gave it a role. Being located between the main east – west transport corridors (road and rail) also adds to the sense of the area being bypassed and rather forgotten. It is anticipated that the re-introduction of railway services will assist in opening up and re-energising the area. 3.3.3 The importance of city regions, and the economic significance and potential of West Lothian and North Lanarkshire in developing the city regions of Edinburgh and Glasgow has been recognised by the Scottish Executive. The new line would strengthen the links between North Lanarkshire and West Lothian, furthering economic development and collaboration in these areas. PAGE 21 Analysis Airdrie-Bathgate Line: Economic Activity and Location Impacts

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Socio-Economic Baseline

3.3.4 The economy of North Lanarkshire was badly affected by the contraction of the heavy engineering, coal, iron and steel sectors during the 1980s and early 1990s, particularly the high profile closures at Ravenscraig and Gartcosh. Ravenscraig supported around 10,000 jobs at its peak and the Strenuous closure of Gartcosh resulted in the loss of around 700 jobs.

efforts by government and other bodies (including Enterprise Zone status between 1993 and 2003) means that in recent years, the local economy has made significant progress in repositioning itself as a flexible, modern economy, with a greater emphasis on service sector activity. The developments at Strathclyde Business Park are of particular significance and Cumbernauld continues to support and attract a significant number of enterprises. 3.3.5 The Airdrie area has suffered two significant closures in recent years however. Of particular relevance here was the closure of the Boots factory, which was the largest (private sector) employer in Airdrie, and Chunghwa Picture Tubes at Mossend, with a combined loss of around 1650 jobs (1000 at Boots and 650 at Chunghwa). The closure of Boots was particularly significant for the town of Airdrie, as the majority of the Boots employees lived in Airdrie, and Boots had been an established presence for many years. The demise of Chunghwa was a major blow to both the local area and Scotland as a whole, as there had been expectations that as many as 3000 new jobs would be created by this significant inward investment – lauded as possibly Scotland’s biggest ever single inward investment at the time of its announcement. 3.3.6 There are now major redevelopment projects proposed or underway at Ravenscraig, and Eurocentral. The site at Eurocentral is bordered by the M8 motorway and the Channel Tunnel Rail Freight Terminal - and includes the former Chunghwa site. It is being developed as an office / warehouse / distribution location. developments Combined with the Airdrie-Bathgate project, these to the economic attractiveness of contribute

North Lanarkshire. Integration of bus services to / from these locations with the new line could be of benefit. 3.3.7 Bathgate suffered badly in the mid-1980s with the closure of the Leyland Trucks (which employed around 7000 people at its peak in the 1970s) and Plessey factories. These closures resulted in a loss of around 6000 jobs in a town with a population of around 15000, which resulted in some of the highest unemployment rates in the UK at the time. Bathgate recovered during the 1990s in part due to the large scale inward investment resulting from the ‘Silicon Glen’ developments in the Livingston and M8 Corridor areas. 3.3.8 The West Lothian economy in general then suffered a double blow in 2001 and 2002 with the closures of major employers at Motorola and NEC Semiconductors. These closures resulted in the loss of around 3100 and 1600 jobs respectively. Given the location of these two plants, there was a

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Socio-Economic Baseline

again a significant impact on the Bathgate area. low in recent years.

Despite these blows,

unemployment levels in West Lothian as a whole have remained relatively

3.3.9 The plant formerly occupied by Motorola has been converted into business space and is being marketed as the Pyramids Business Park. A large part of this was occupied by an Inland Revenue customer contact centre which has created over 500 new jobs in the area. The plant at NEC however is facing demolition, leaving a plot of around 150 acres, one of the largest manufacturing sites in Scotland. 3.3.10 The loss of Motorola, NEC and Chunghwa, together with similar experiences elsewhere in Scotland such as Hyundai near Dunfermline, brought about a shift in emphasis in government policy away from the encouragement of large scale inward investment, to increased support of existing indigenous businesses and the regeneration of city regions as the drivers of economic growth. This change in emphasis was part of the Scottish Executive’s ‘Smart Successful Scotland’ strategy. 3.3.11 In Livingston, the Alba Centre and Campus was established as a

Scottish centre of excellence in electronic design, with the aim of tackling the weakness of historical dependency on production line activities. have to be via a shuttle bus service from Livingston North station. 3.3.12 Recent job losses and gains, as well as the location of the major employers in North Lanarkshire and West Lothian are documented in more detail in Section 3.8. Headline Indicators 3.3.13 This section considers a range of ‘headline’ economic indicators. 3.3.14 Table 3.6 below shows current population, GDP and other headline statistics for West Lothian, North Lanarkshire and Scotland, while Table 3.7 provides details of economic activity rates in the areas. Again, access to this important development via the Airdrie-Bathgate line would

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Socio-Economic Baseline

Table 3.6 Population & GDP summary West Lothian Total Population1 Working Age Population GDP (£ million)2 GDP per capita (£) Manufacturing GVA (£million)
2003 2001 Source: Scottish Executive Economic Statistics
2 1

North Lanarkshire 321,820 206,338 3,215 10,010 510

Scotland

161,020 104,894 2,410 15,154 520

5,057,400 3,210,257 69,179 12,117 11,680

Table 3.7 Economic activity and unemployment West Lothian (%) In employment1: - all - full time work - part time work - employees - self-employed Economically Active Pursuing work2 Unemployment3 Unemployed (1yr+)
4

North Lanarkshire (%)

Scotland (%)

82 76 24 91 9 85 5 2.8 10.4
1 2

72 77 23 93 6 78 7 3.6 12.2

75 74 26 90 10 79 7 3.4 15.2

Autumn 2003-Summer 2004 people who want to work but are not in employment 3 November 2004 4 % of all claimants Source: Scottish Executive Economic Briefings (15/12/04)

3.3.15 The general picture from Tables 3.6 and 3.7 is that West Lothian is doing rather better than the national average by most measures and North Lanarkshire is performing below a range of national average figures. This is the case for employment levels, economic activity rates and unemployment rates. Significant differences are noted in GDP figures. West Lothian has a GDP per capita which is 25% above the Scottish average, while North Lanarkshire GDP per capita is 17% lower than the national rate. However, both areas have a lower rate of long term unemployment than is the case nationally.

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Socio-Economic Baseline

3.3.16 Table 3.8 shows some key data relating to population trends. Table 3.8 Population statistics West Lothian Total population1 - below working age (%) - of working age (%) - above working age (%) Change in pop 1991-2003 Proj. pop 2003-2018 161,000 21 64 15 +11% +14% North Lanarkshire 322,000 20 63 17 -2% -2%
1

Scotland

5,057,000 19 62 19 -1% -2%

2003 population Source: Scottish Executive Economic Briefings (15/12/04)

3.3.17 The population statistics again demonstrate significant differences between the two areas. West Lothian has seen an 11% growth in population since 1991 and this growth is projected to increase, as will be seen later. North Lanarkshire is more reflective of the national picture, showing a gradual and continuing decline in population. Both areas have a slightly The higher proportion of working age persons than the national average. issues which will be returned to later. 3.3.18 Table 3.9 shows some key statistics relating to earnings, and the breakdown of jobs by industry for both local authority areas.

projected population increases in West Lothian create significant planning

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Socio-Economic Baseline

Table 3.9 Earnings and jobs by sector West Lothian Gross Average Earings1 Jobs by sector (%)2 - agric, forestry, fishing - energy & water - manufacturing - construction - retail / wholesale / hotel - transport & comms - finance and business - public and other services
1 Weekly earnings (median) figures for 2002 (% of all jobs) 3 figures not available Source: Scottish Executive Economic Briefings (15/12/04) 2

North Lanarkshire £380

Scotland

£390

£393

1 3

0 1 14 7 25 11 12 31

2 2 12 5 24 6 17 33

19 -3 25 8 14 27

3.3.19 Table 3.9 shows that average earnings in both areas are lower than the national average. Manufacturing forms a higher percentage of the job market in West Lothian than in North Lanarkshire where ‘public and other services’ has a higher share, although manufacturing has a higher proportion of jobs in both areas compared to the national picture. and nationally. 3.3.20 Both areas have out-performed the national picture in terms of the creation of new jobs in the period 1997-2002. The number of jobs grew by 14.2% and 16.2% in West Lothian and North Lanarkshire respectively in this time, compared to 9.7% nationally. This growth has been predominantly in the service sector – both areas have seen service sector jobs rise by over 30% in this five year period, whereas manufacturing jobs have dropped by over 25%. The reductions in manufacturing jobs in both areas in this period are greater than seen nationally, where the figure was 18%. 3.3.21 Both West Lothian and North Lanarkshire are home to a higher proportion of large firms (250+ employees) at 9% and 8% of firms respectively, compared to a national figure of only 2%, indicating the strategic importance of these areas and their attractiveness as a location for large businesses. The ‘retail / wholesale / hotels’ sector accounts for a quarter of all jobs in both areas,

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Socio-Economic Baseline

3.3.22 The local authority level figures illustrate a general situation whereby the West Lothian economy exhibits performance in excess of a range of national measures. In contrast, the North Lanarkshire economy, despite making At a more progress, lags behind on a range of national measures.

disaggregated level, there will of course be disparities within West Lothian and North Lanarkshire. A selection of key measures are considered below at the ward level. 3.3.23 Data from the following wards are considered, shown in Table 3.10, regarding population levels, economic activity levels, and qualifications / skills. The actual locations of these wards are shown in Figures 3.1 and 3.2 at the end of this Chapter, where their location relative to the line can be seen. Table 3.10 Relevant West Lothian and North Lanarkshire wards West Lothian Almond Armadale Central Armadale West Blackburn Boghall Croftmalloch Deans Durhamtoun Easton Newland Polkemmet North Lanarkshire Academy Airdrie Central Calderbank Chapelhall Clarkston Craigneuk and Petersburn New Monkland West North Cairnhill and Coatdyke Plains and Caldercruix Salsburgh South East Cairnhill and Gartlea Whinhall

3.3.24 Tables 3.11, 3.12 and 3.13 below give data for unemployment and economic inactivity, population levels, and educational attainment for the above wards.

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Table 3.11 Levels of Unemployment & Economic Activity (2001 census) Ward Unemployed (%) Economically Inactive1 (%) SCOTLAND Almond Armadale Central Armadale West Blackburn Boghall Croftmalloch Deans Durhamtoun Easton Newland Polkemmet Total area average 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.9 4.7 4.1 4.2 4.2 3.3 2.8 3.9 4.8 4.0 35.0 32.2 36.6 32.7 34.6 37.6 30.0 30.1 27.7 29.6 33.4 39.1 33.1

Academy Airdrie Central Calderbank Chapelhall Clarkston Craigneuk and Petersburn New Monkland West North Cairnhill and Coatdyke Plains and Caldercruix Salsburgh South East Cairnhill and Gartlea Whinhall Total area average
1

6.6 6.1 2.9 4.2 3.9 5.7 3.6 3.1 5.3 3.5

43.0 44.8 31.6 35.7 35.1 39.4 31.0 39.0 43.4 31.0

4.7 6.8 4.7

38.7 40.6 37.8

includes retired, students, looking after home / family, permanently sick / disabled,

other.

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Table 3.12 Levels of Population and recent change (2001 census) Ward SCOTLAND Almond Armadale Central Armadale West Blackburn Boghall Croftmalloch Deans Durhamtoun Easton Newland Polkemmet Total area average 1991 4,998,567 4,055 5,020 4,412 4,849 4,863 4,830 5,769 2,675 3,949 4,375 4,788 49,585 2001 5,062,011 4,787 4,455 4,966 5,192 4,287 4,633 5,425 3,861 4,675 4,478 4,584 51,343 Change 63,444 732 -565 554 343 -576 -197 -344 1,186 726 103 -204 1,758

Academy Airdrie Central Calderbank Chapelhall Clarkston Craigneuk and Petersburn New Monkland West North Cairnhill and Coatdyke Plains and Caldercruix Salsburgh South East Cairnhill and Gartlea Whinhall Total area
1

5,500 4,718 3,851 4,405 4,067 4,752 4,716 4,609 4,842 3,796 4,834 4,917 55,007

4,406 4,403 4,370 4,404 4,574 4,686 4,936 4,270 4,482 4,934 4,568 4,651 54,684

-1,094 -315 519 -1 507 -66 220 -339 -360 1,138 -266 -266 -323

includes retired, students, looking after home / family, permanently sick / disabled,

other.

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Table 3.13 Qualification levels (2001 census)
Ward None (%) Almond Armadale Central Armadale West Blackburn Boghall Croftmalloch Deans Durhamtoun Easton Newland Polkemmet Total area average Academy Airdrie Central Calderbank Chapelhall Clarkston Craigneuk and Petersburn New Monkland West North Cairnhill and Coatdyke Plains and Caldercruix Salsburgh South East Cairnhill and Gartlea Whinhall Total area average 41 46 42 25 25 26 14 12 14 6 6 7 13 11 12 37 52 35 24 24 26 15 12 16 8 6 8 16 7 15 40 42 39 42 39 37 35 30 36 34 50 39 52 48 30 41 40 47 35 Group 1 (%) 31 34 30 32 30 31 35 28 31 28 29 31 26 23 24 28 25 27 28 Group 2 (%) 13 12 14 12 12 14 15 16 14 15 10 14 10 12 18 14 13 12 16 Group 3 (%) 7 5 7 6 6 7 6 9 7 7 5 7 6 6 9 6 8 6 8 Group 4 (%) 9 7 10 9 12 11 9 17 11 16 6 11 6 11 18 10 14 7 14

None – no qualifications Group 1 – O Grade, Standard Grade, Intermediate 1, Intermediate 2, City and Guilds Craft, SVQ Level 1 or 2 or equivalent Group 2 – Higher Grade, CSYS, ONC, OND City and Guilds Advanced Craft, RSA Advanced Diploma, SVQ Level 3 or equivalent Group 3 – HND, HNC, RSA Higher Diploma, SVQ Level 4 or 5 or equivalent Group 4 – First Degree, Higher Degree, Professional Qualification

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3.3.25 Table 3.11 shows that almost half of the selected wards have higher unemployment and economic activity rates than the national average. Looking at the individual wards, Whinhall and Polkemmet recorded the highest rates of unemployment in North Lanarkshire and West Lothian respectively, with Airdrie Central having the highest rate of economic inactivity of any of the selected wards. Whinhall, Airdrie Central, Craigneuk & Petersburn, and Plains & Caldercruix are all wards with higher than average unemployment in close proximity to the railway line. unemployment rate found in West Lothian. 3.3.26 Table 3.12 illustrates that the West Lothian wards have seen an increase in population compared to a slight drop in the selected North Lanarkshire zones. Within West Lothian, Armadale Central and Boghall wards have seen the biggest declines in population, while Durhamtoun has seen the biggest increase. Within North Lanarkshire, the Academy ward in the north of The large rural ward of Airdrie has seen the single biggest decline. third in the ten year period. Five of the North Lanarkshire wards have higher unemployment rates than the highest

Salsburgh has seen a significant increase in population, going up by over one This ward also includes parts of Airdrie and Chapelhall where there has been a substantial amount of private housing development in the last 10 years. 3.3.27 Table 3.13 highlights the wards where the level of educational attainment is low. Over half the population in the Plains & Caldercruix, Academy and Polkemmet wards have no qualifications. At the other end of the scale, the Durhamtoun and Newland wards have the highest proportion of population who have achieved ‘Degree / Higher Degree / Professional Qualification’. 3.3.28 By the above indicators, the West Lothian wards of Polkemmet and Blackburn have the highest rates of unemployment and lowest levels of educational attainment. These wards are not in the immediate area of influence of the new line. The figures for the wards which would potentially see the greatest impact (Armadale and Armadale West) are around average for the selected area of West Lothian. 3.3.29 Turning to North Lanarkshire, the Academy, Airdrie Central, Craigneuk and Petersburn, Plains and Caldercruix, and Whinhall wards were all recording unemployment rates which were higher than the national average. All of these wards have also witnessed declining population and have low levels of educational attainment. All of these wards lie within the immediate vicinity of the new train services. 3.3.30 Survey data4 obtained from the residents of the Airdrie cluster of wards (Academy, Airdrie Central, Craigneuk & Petersburn, Whinhall, Plains & Caldercruix) offers more insights into this area and the perceptions of those who live there. The population is very established, with more than 70%

4 North Lanarkshire labour Market Study 2003 – the Airdrie ‘cluster’ was established by using the SIMD to estimate areas where labour market inactivity was likely to be high.

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having been resident for more than 10 years.

Around half of the local

population work in Airdrie itself, and over half rate the employment prospects in North Lanarkshire as ‘quite poor’ or ‘very poor’. Around 34% of people stated that nobody in their household did paid work and only 10% were undertaking education or training. 3.3.31 In terms of transport, 45% of the Airdrie sample agreed with the statement that ‘transport can be a problem from this area in getting a job’ and 9% stated that they required ‘better public transport’ in order to take up employment. 3.3.32 A similar survey in West Lothian5, found that around 10% of respondents identified ‘lack of transport’ as the main problem associated with where they live. In addition, 16% cited ‘lack of transport’ as ‘another significant problem’ associated with where they live. 3.3.33 Having documented headline economic statistics at the local authority and ward level, the next section considers the study area in terms of indicators of deprivation. 3.4 Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation data 3.4.1 The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) 2004 set out to identify the most deprived areas across Scotland. It is based on 31 indicators in six individual ‘domains’, those being Current Income, Employment, Housing, Health, Education, Skills and Training and Geographic Access to Services and Telecommunications. 3.4.2 SIMD 2004 is presented at data zone level (representing between 500 and 1,000 people in a fairly ‘homogenous’ area), enabling small pockets of deprivation to be identified. The data zones are ranked from most deprived (one) to least deprived (6505) on the overall SIMD 2004 and on each of the individual domains. in STAG EALI. 3.4.3 Various results from the SIMD exercise are reported below relating to the following four domains: Overall deprivation, Income, Employment, and Education. given below. Current Income Domain • • adults in Income Support households; children in Income Support households; The underlying indicators used in each individual domain are The result is a comprehensive picture of relative area deprivation across Scotland. This is clearly a key measure for consideration

5

West Lothian Citizens Panel, 2002

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• • •

adults in Income Based Job Seekers Allowance households; children in Income Based Job Seekers Allowance households; adults in Working Families Tax Credit households below a low income threshold;

•

children in Working Families Tax Credit households below a low income threshold;

•

adults in Disability Tax Credit households below a low income threshold; and

•

children in Disability Tax Credit households below a low income threshold.

Employment Domain • Incapacity Benefit recipients, men aged under 65 and women aged under 60; • Severe Disablement Allowance recipients, men aged under 65 and women aged under 60; • compulsory New Deal participants — New Deal for the under 25s and New Deal for the 25+ not included in the unemployment claimant count; and • Unemployment Claimant Count averaged over 12 months of those men aged under 65 and women aged under 60. Education • Child Benefit : used in ‘Pupils aged 16+ who are not in full time education’; • • • secondary school level absences; working age adults with no qualifications; proportions of the 17+ Population who have not successfully applied to HE; and • pupil performance at SQA (Scottish Quality Assessment) at Stage 4.

3.4.4 The SIMD have been used as the basis for the recently announced Community Regeneration Fund (CRF) (announced in July 2004). This new fund replaces the current Social Inclusion Partnership (SIP) fund, the Better Neighbourhood Services Fund and the Tackling Drugs Misuse Fund, and will allocate over £300 million pounds over the next three years. Two thirds of this new fund will be allocated to the most deprived 15% of data zones by the overall index measure.

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3.4.5 Of all the Scottish local authority areas, Glasgow City and North Lanarkshire Council areas have the highest number of data zones eligible for CRF at 373 and 103 respectively. Just short of a quarter of all North Lanarkshire data zones are within the 15% qualifying band for CRF. Figures 3.3 to 3.5 highlight the CRF eligible data zones relevant to the Airdrie-Bathgate railway corridor. 3.4.6 It can be seen that virtually the entire area from Glasgow Queen Street station to Easterhouse is eligible for CRF. Although not on the path of the new physical line between Airdrie and Bathgate, all of these areas would benefit from the improved public transport services to the east, which would be provided by the new line. There are also a large number of CRF data In West Lothian, there are far zones in the Airdrie and Coatbridge areas. Bathgate and one is in Armadale. 3.4.7 Figures 3.6 to 3.8 are thematic maps which show the data zones in terms of their overall SIMD score. The data zones are presented in terms of five roughly equal sized groups, representing the most deprived (shown in red) to the least deprived (shown in dark green) data zones by this measure. These maps show additional detail and again demonstrate the concentration of deprived areas in and around the Airdrie / Coatbridge area. In Airdrie in particular it can be seen that the majority of the data zones are in the two most deprived categories. A significant amount of both Bathgate and The Armadale also show up as being disadvantaged by this measure.

fewer CRF data zones with only 10 in total – although two of these are in

villages of Plains and Caldercruix show up as red (most deprived) and the rest of the villages and rural areas through which the new line would run appear in the second most deprived category. 3.4.8 Figures 3.9 to 3.11 show the same geographical areas but this time the Employment domain is mapped. The need for significant regeneration of the Airdrie area is stark when viewing the area in terms of the Employment domain score. There are large areas of red and orange on the map There are fewer red and indicating high scores for deprivation. Areas within the Airdrie Central and Whinhall wards in particular again score highly. orange data zones mapped in the Bathgate area, although there are areas which score highly in Armadale, Bathgate, Boghall and the northern parts of Livingston. The Whitburn and Blackburn areas also show some levels of deprivation. Looking at the Airdrie-Bathgate railway corridor area, virtually all of the Plains zones are shown in red, and the rest of the corridor area shows higher than average employment deprivation. 3.4.9 Figures 3.12 to 3.14 again show the same geographical areas but this time for the Income domain. The Airdrie area map shows a very similar pattern to the Employment domain for the urban areas, although the town of Airdrie has a larger number of red data zones. The surrounding rural areas show rather less deprivation by this measure compared to Employment. There are a larger number of red areas in the Bathgate area map, with areas of

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Income deprivation showing in Whitburn and more in Livingston than was the case for Employment. The rural area between Airdrie and Bathgate shows up around average or more deprived than average by this measure – the villages of Plains and Caldercruix show up in the most deprived category for Income. 3.4.10 The other key SIMD measure here is the Education domain. Similar maps to the above are shown in Figures 3.15 to 3.17. The patterns which emerge are very similar to the above and with ‘most deprived’ data zones being highlighted in Airdrie, Coatbridge, East Glasgow, Plains, Caldercruix, Blackridge, Armadale, Boghall and Livingston. 3.5 Household Car Availability 3.5.1 As a significant public transport proposal, perhaps the most significant impacts of the Airdrie-Bathgate line will be felt by those without access to a car. Figures from the 2001 Census have been analysed and are presented in Figures 3.18 to 3.21 to show the levels of car availability in the corridor, again at the data zone level (in terms of the percentage of households without access to a car). A map of the area between Glasgow Queen Street station and Airdrie (Figure 3.18) has been included here which demonstrates the very low levels of car ownership in this area. More than 50% of households in virtually all these areas do not have access to a car. 3.5.2 The majority of data zones in the Airdrie / Coatbridge area also have low levels of car ownership with more than 40% of households not having access to a car. Pockets of high car ownership (where less than 20% of households do not have access to a car) can be seen around Glenmavis and areas to the south of Airdrie, and Blairhill / Drumpellier in Coatbridge. 3.5.3 Car ownership levels are much higher in general in West Lothian with only a few areas where household car ownership is less than 50%. Two of these areas are located in Armadale and Bathgate, and Bathgate in general has relatively low car ownership. The more rural surrounding areas have higher levels of car ownership. 3.5.4 The area between Airdrie and Bathgate also has generally high levels of car ownership. The exceptions are Plains and Caldercruix villages where ownership levels are lower, particularly in Caldercruix. 3.6 Travel to Work patterns in Airdrie-Bathgate area 3.6.1 The 2001 Census Travel to Work data has been analysed in detail for each of the wards previously detailed in Table 3.10. These data have been summarised and the results are presented in Figures 3.22 to 3.25. For both West Lothian and North Lanarkshire, the travel to work destinations for the 12 or so wards have been aggregated and are presented in maps separately for car and public transport. Note that in the Census data, for any

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origin-destination pair, if the number of trips is low (0, 1, 2 or 3) the values is ‘randomised’ to ‘0’ or ‘3’. These low values are excluded from this analysis as the results may be misleading. 3.6.2 Figures 3.22 and 3.23 show travel to work destinations from the

North Lanarkshire and West Lothian wards respectively, by car. These maps show the dispersed range of travel to work destinations in both cases. They also show that there is relatively little travel from the selected wards in North Lanarkshire to West Lothian and vice versa. There is in general a very noticeable east / west split with North Lanarkshire trips inclining towards Glasgow and West Lothian trips being destined for Edinburgh. The new line therefore offers the potential to improve connections and open up new travel opportunities between Scotland’s two largest city-regions – Glasgow and Edinburgh. 3.6.3 This situation is magnified significantly when the travel patterns by public transport are viewed in Figures 3.24 and 3.25. There are virtually no trips by public transport east from the selected wards in North Lanarkshire or west from the selected wards in West Lothian. These patterns will reflect It is precisely this both the poor level of public transport highlighted previously, and the historic patterns of travel which exist in both areas. situation that the re-opening of the Airdrie-Bathgate line would address. 3.7 Travel to work destinations 3.7.1 The 2001 Census Travel to Work data also provides an excellent indication of the location of employment, at a detailed spatial level. In the Census, people were asked to identify their regular workplace. This ‘workplace’ data have been collated at the data zone level, and give an indication of the location of employment opportunities relative to the railway line. 3.7.2 In this analysis, the destination end of the travel to work trips has been summed across all modes of travel (including walk / cycle) to give an aggregate figure for each zone which represents total daily commuting trips to that data zone, as recorded in the Census. This is therefore a close proxy for the quantity of employment in each data zone. Note that the data zones are based on an approximately equal level of population and are therefore large geographical areas in places where population is low. 3.7.3 Figures 3.26 to 3.28 show the results of this analysis for the same geographical areas used previously. Figures 3.29 and 3.30 then show the same data for the Glasgow and Edinburgh areas respectively. 3.7.4 The Airdrie area map (Figure 3.26) clearly shows the Strathclyde Business Park area in purple (receiving more than 5,000 trips per day) and also picks out the area around Newhouse Industrial Estate / Eurocentral and the Tannochside area. The map indicates a reasonable number of jobs in the Airdrie and Coatbridge areas, particularly near the current railway line.

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3.7.5 Figure 3.27, for the Bathgate area, indicates two main employment areas (shown in purple). One large zone includes the Motorola site (still open at the time of the Census) and the other is a smaller area around Kirkton Campus, the base for amongst others, Sky and Intelligent Finance, two of West Lothian’s largest private sector employers. The other main This clearly use of the point illustrated by this map is that the two Livingston railway stations are located in residential areas where there is little employment. employment areas in Livingston for people making has implications for the potential of these stations to provide access to Airdrie-Bathgate line. Areas of high employment are also clear around the Houston Industrial Estate and the Almondvale Centre / St John’s Hospital. Indeed the clear ‘zoning’ philosophy behind the New Town planning of Livingston into residential and employment areas is very apparent on this map. 3.7.6 Figure 3.28 illustrates that there are no significant areas of employment in the area between Airdrie and Bathgate, the exception being a small area on the west side of Armadale. 3.7.7 Figures 3.29 and 3.30 are included for reference and give an indication of the employment opportunities available in Glasgow and Edinburgh which could be accessed using the new line. The Glasgow map shows an extremely high degree of concentration of employment in the city centre, with few major areas of employment along the line between Airdrie and Glasgow city centre. 3.7.8 In contrast, the Edinburgh map shows a concentration of employment on the western fringe of Edinburgh, including Edinburgh Park, the Gyle area, Sighthill Industrial Estate and Heriot Watt University at Riccarton, in addition to the city centre. These areas could be accessed via the new station at This would be a major new Edinburgh Park (not marked on this map).

opportunity for the communities west of Bathgate which would now be linked by the railway. Indeed with the completion of Edinburgh Park, the opening of the Royal Bank of Scotland headquarters, and proposals for significant amounts of new development in the west Edinburgh area, the potential employment opportunities here will increase markedly in the coming years. 3.8 Recent developments in employment, access to other services 3.8.1 The above figures illustrated the travel to work patterns recorded in the 2001 Census. Since 2001, there have been some significant changes affecting the North Lanarkshire and West Lothian employment markets, as discussed previously. 3.8.2 In this section, the major job losses and gains in West Lothian and North Lanarkshire since 2001 are considered. intended to highlight the main changes The data presented is from in employment since the known public sources but should not be regarded as definitive – it is

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2001 Census. Note that, in the figures, the scales have been set to an upper limit to avoid large entries dominating the maps – the ‘maximum’ in each case represents that number or a greater number of jobs. 3.8.3 Taking North Lanarkshire first, Figure 3.31 shows the major job losses at Boots and Chunghwa as previously discussed. There were some other significant job losses in Airdrie but the larger single job losses were in the Cumbernauld area. In terms of jobs created, Figure 3.32 demonstrates that the big gains have been focussed on Strathclyde Business Park – in particular the NTL call centre. The other main source of new jobs is NCR Ltd at Eurocentral. 3.8.4 In West Lothian, the main losses since 2001 have been at Motorola and NEC Semiconductors as previously discussed – this can be seen in Figure 3.33. Figure 3.34 shows where significant numbers of new jobs have been created at the Inland Revenue call centre, the retail food sector at Morrisons, Asda and Aldi, and also non-food retailing at B&Q. This reflects the very significant expansion of retailing in Livingston in recent years. 3.8.5 The re-opening of the Airdrie-Bathgate line could provide much improved access to Livingston, as a retail centre, from the west – providing that suitable bus links are in place from Livingston North station. 3.8.6 Also shown are the locations of the largest existing employers in the areas, shown in Figures 3.35 and 3.36. This provides further context for how the proposed rail services fit with this pattern of employment and what further measures may be necessary to maximise the impact of the line in terms of people accessing these employment centres. 3.8.7 In West Lothian, the five largest individual employment centres are all in Livingston the call centres at Sky and Intelligent Finance, West Lothian Council headquarters, St John’s Hospital, and Bausch and Lomb Scotland Ltd. All can be seen in Figure 3.35, and these major employers could all be accessible by train from west using the proposed train services – given suitable connections from Livingston North station. 3.8.8 The most significant employment locations in North Lanarkshire are rather more dispersed and not in such close proximity to the line, as can be seen in Figure 3.36. The NHS is a major employer in North Lanarkshire, with Strathclyde Hospital in Motherwell being the single biggest employer identified here, and also significant numbers of jobs at Lanarkshire Acute Hospitals NHS Trust in Airdrie. In terms of the private sector there are large numbers of jobs in the car insurance centre at Kwik Fit (Uddingston) and there are a large number of firms in the Strathclyde Business Park / Motherwell Food Park area. Motherwell, Coatbridge, Cumbernauld and Bellshill are the main employment areas.

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3.8.9 In addition to these large employers in each local authority area, Figures 3.37 and 3.38 show the location of significant employers in close proximity to the railway line itself, for West Lothian and North Lanarkshire respectively. In both cases, there are a substantial number of employers in the vicinity of the line. 3.8.10 Finally, Figures 3.39 – 3.41 map the location of schools and council services in relation to the line. Again this serves to illustrate the key locations to and from which accessibility will be enhanced with the presence of the new line. 3.9 European Funding Status 3.9.1 European funding status is a further indication of the social and economic environment of geographical areas. The current status is outlined below. North Lanarkshire 3.9.2 The Airdrie area has full Objective 2 status under the Western Scotland Objective 2 Programme 2000-2006. the Western Scotland Objective 2 Following the mid-term evaluation of programme, Airdrie became an

Urban Regeneration Area. This has made projects linked to the Town Centre eligible for funding under Measure 2.1 ‘Competitive Locations’. 3.9.3 The Social Inclusion Partnership areas in and surrounding Airdrie can also apply for support under Priority 3 of the Western Scotland Objective 2 programme. 3.9.4 The Airdrie area also falls within the Objective 3 lowland Scotland

programme area. Projects can apply under all measures except Measure 2.3 (rural areas). North Lanarkshire does not have any rural status within the Objective 3 Programme. 3.9.5 Under the current EU regulations, Airdrie has assisted area status. Assisted Areas are those areas of Britain where companies are eligible to apply for regional aid. Regional aid includes schemes such as Regional Selective The Assisted Areas map was agreed with the European Assistance (RSA). Appendix B). 3.9.6 The centre of Airdrie is eligible for regional aid and has an aid intensity level of 20%.

Commission in July 2000 and will operate until the end of 2006 (see map in

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West Lothian 3.9.7 The maps for both Assisted Area and ERDF eligibility were constructed from 1991 ward geographies rather than the current ward boundaries. The map found in Appendix B shows the current pattern in the west of West Lothian – ie the area covering the Airdrie-Bathgate corridor. 3.9.8 The Objective 2 fully eligible area and Assisted Area status are mutually exclusive. Assisted area status is centred on Livingston and only extends to the eastern fringes of the Bathgate-Airdrie corridor. Objective 2 fully eligible wards cover the south west of West Lothian – ie Armadale, Whitburn, Fauldhouse, eastern Bathgate, Stoneyburn and Blackridge, all of which are of relevance to the line. 3.9.9 The rest of West Lothian has transitional Objective 2 status – ie ERDF being tapered off on an earlier basis – by the end of 2005. Under the East of Scotland Objective 2 programme a number of locations and communities have other specific targeting status – enabling these areas to benefit from particular measures under the Programme. These are: • CED (Community Economic Development) status – for areas with higher levels of economic exclusion – areas consist of Fauldhouse, west Whitburn, south Armadale, Blackburn / Boghall; and • Strategic Locations – essentially the whole of the area in question is part of the M8 Corridor strategic location. 3.10 Overview of Demographic / Economic Forecasts 3.10.1 This section provides a brief overview of current economic forecasts, employment forecasts and population projections for West Lothian and North Lanarkshire. Employment forecasts 3.10.2 Forecast trends in employment suggest that West Lothian will grow faster than North Lanarkshire in the coming years. North Lanarkshire 3.10.3 The SLIMS North Lanarkshire 2003 Labour Market Statement summarises the situation as follows: • growth in employment in North Lanarkshire, at 2%, will be slower than in the rest of the west of Scotland (6%) and the UK (4%) between 2003 and 2011;

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•

an estimated 1800 jobs will be created in financial services, but manufacturing employment will decline by a further 10% in this time;

•

‘professional’ employment is expected to rise by 20% whilst employment in ‘skilled trades’ is forecast to decline; and

•

the forecast net increase of 2,500 jobs in Lanarkshire will be dwarfed by the 85,000 people who will be required by employers to replace those who leave the workforce or change occupations between 2003 and 2011.

West Lothian 3.10.4 The Lothian Labour Market Unit document ‘West Lothian Labour Market Profile 2004’ contains some recent employment forecasts as follows: • there is forecast to be an overall increase of 4.4% in workforce employment in West Lothian between 2004 and 2007; • the main contributors to this increase will be Wholesaling (where West Lothian already has a high proportion of employment), Hotels and Catering and Other (largely private) Services - the Transport and Communications sector is forecast to see the largest absolute decline; • growth in part time employment will be greater than growth in full time employment; and • growth in Gross Value Added (GVA) is estimated to be 14.1% between 2004-07, above the rate for Edinburgh and Lothian (10.7%) and Scotland (7.2%). Population projections 3.10.5 The Register General for Scotland’s most recent population projections were published in 2004 and are based on 2002 data. Table 3.14 below shows the projections between 2002-18 for West Lothian and North Lanarkshire. 3.10.6 It can be seen that West Lothian is forecast to see a substantial increase in population, up by around 15% between 2002 and 2018. In contrast the population in North Lanarkshire is forecast to decline by 2.2%. This decline is slightly less than that forecast at the national level, which is estimated to be 2.4%.

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Table 3.14 Population projections (2002-18) 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 200218 (%) West Lothian North Lanark. 321,350 319,884 318,200 316,387 314,364 -2.2% 159,960 165,871 171,789 177,727 183,646 +14.8%

3.11 Planning Context 3.11.1 The proposed Airdrie-Bathgate line crosses two Structure Plan areas – and the development plan framework for these areas differs significantly. North Lanarkshire. 3.11.2 The North Lanarkshire part of the route is included within the Glasgow and Clyde Valley Structure Plan 2000 which became operative in May 2002. At the local plan level the proposed route is covered by the Monklands Local Plan (adopted 1995). 3.11.3 North Lanarkshire Council commenced the preparation of a new district-wide Local Plan in 2004. A consultation draft of this new plan has not yet been published although a substantial number of initial comments have been received in relation to potential development sites in the vicinity of the proposed rail route. The planning authority is currently in the process of reviewing responses received with a view to publishing a Consultation Draft of the Local Plan in December 2005. West Lothian 3.11.4 The part of the proposed route located in West Lothian is covered by the Edinburgh and Lothians Structure Plan 2015 (approved June 2004). In terms of Local Plans, the area for the proposed new service is contained within the Bathgate Area Local Plan (adopted March 1998) - however areas potentially affected by the proposed service include parts of West Lothian included within the Livingston Local Plan (adopted February 1996) and the Broxburn Area Local Plan (adopted June 1991). 3.11.5 West Lothian is in the process of preparing a new district-wide Local Plan which will incorporate proposals for major new developments identified in the approved Structure Plan. The finalised West Lothian Local Plan was approved to be placed on deposit by Committee in April 2005. The finalised Local Plan incorporates a number of ‘Core Development Areas’ at Armadale, East Calder, west Livingston, Broxburn East and Winchburgh. In total these core development areas make provision for 12,000 new dwellings, and over 100 ha of industrial/business development.

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3.12 Summary 3.12.1 The economic overview and accompanying analysis of the 2001 Census Data illustrates a contrasting picture between North Lanarkshire and West Lothian. measures. Most measures indicate that North Lanarkshire is making In contrast, West Lothian is positioned favourably when The Airdrie-

progress but that the area is behind the Scottish average across a range of compared against the Scottish average for most measures.

Bathgate rail link offers an opportunity to slow or reverse the population decline in Airdrie while building on and accommodating the population growth in North Lanarkshire in a sustainable way. 3.12.2 However, the area immediately served by the proposed new train services, Airdrie, Bathgate and the settlements in between (Plains, Caldercruix, Blackridge and Armadale) are in the main ranked highly in terms of deprivation (SIMD). So even in the more prosperous West Lothian, there are areas of deprivation, but these are not as acute as in North Lanarkshire. 3.12.3 The aims of the Airdrie–Bathgate scheme in EALI terms from the point of view of the two areas are therefore perhaps slightly different. For North Lanarkshire, there is a strong regeneration focus. That is, the scheme can in the main be seen as increasing the opportunities (in the labour market in particular), for those living within the area influenced by the new line and train services. This will have an effect on incomes and employment in these areas. The proposals will also contribute to making Airdrie a more desirable place to live or have a business, and act as a spur for the regeneration in the town. In addition, entirely new opportunities will potentially be created for residents of Plains and Caldercruix, and indeed for future development prospects here. 3.12.4 In West Lothian, there is also a regeneration agenda in terms of Armadale, Blackridge, and to a lesser extent Bathgate. However, perhaps the greater focus is on accommodating the projected growth in West Lothian both in terms of increased population and the demand for new housing that this will bring, as specified in the Structure Plan, and new commercial development. To this end, the line could play a key role in spreading residential development west of Bathgate in particular, and ‘opening up’ this area to a wider range of economic activities than is currently the case. A ‘development’ agenda is also being progressed within North Lanarkshire with consideration being given to how planning decisions might impact on development potential along the line. 3.12.5 The provision of new housing with good train links to Edinburgh

(and Glasgow) would have the effect of taking pressure off the property markets there and could potentially increase the supply of labour for these cities.

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Socio-Economic Baseline

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Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.1 North Lanarkshire Wards

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.2 West Lothian Wards

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.3 Community Regeneration Fund areas – Glasgow

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.4 Community Regeneration Fund areas – Airdrie area

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.5 Community Regeneration Fund areas – Bathgate area

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.6 SIMD Overall, Airdrie area

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.7 SIMD Overall, Bathgate area

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.8 SIMD Overall, Airdrie-Bathgate corridor area

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.9 SIMD Employment, Airdrie Area

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.10 SIMD Employment, Bathgate area

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.11 SIMD Employment, Airdrie-Bathgate corridor

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.12 SIMD Income, Airdrie area

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.13 SIMD Income, Bathgate area

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.14 SIMD Income, Airdrie-Bathgate corridor area

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.15 SIMD Education, Airdrie area

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.16 SIMD Education, Bathgate area

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.17 SIMD Education, Airdrie Bathgate corridor area

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.18 Household Car availability in corridor – East Glasgow

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.19 Household Car availability in corridor – Airdrie / Coatbridge

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.20 Household Car availability in corridor – Bathgate area

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.21 Household Car availability in corridor – Airdrie-Bathgate corridor

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.22 Travel to work destinations, North Lanarkshire, Car

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.23 Travel to work destinations, West Lothian, Car

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.24 Travel to work destinations, North Lanarkshire, PT

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.25 Travel to work destinations, West Lothian, PT

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.26 Total volume of travel to work trips (destinations) – Airdrie area

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.27 Total volume of travel to work trips (destinations) – Bathgate area

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.28 Total volume of travel to work trips (destinations) – Corridor area

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.29 Total volume of travel to work trips (destinations) – Glasgow area

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.30 Total volume of travel to work trips (destinations) – Edinburgh area

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.31 Main job losses in North Lanarkshire (2001-)

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.32 Main job gains in North Lanarkshire (2001-)

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.33 Main job losses in West Lothian (2001-)

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.34 Main job gains in West Lothian (2001-)

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.35 Location of major employers - West Lothian (2005)

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.36 Location of major employers – North Lanarkshire (2005)

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.37 Location of employers in vicinity of line – West Lothian

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.38 Location of employers in vicinity of line – North Lanarkshire

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.39 Location of council schools and services in vicinity of line – West Lothian

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.40 Location of council services in vicinity of line – North Lanarkshire

Socio Economic Baseline

Figure 3.41 Location of council schools in vicinity of line – North Lanarkshire

4 Business Interviews & Other Consultation
4.1 Introduction 4.1.1 The purpose of the programme of interviews with local businesses was to gain an understanding of the business environment and key issues affecting businesses in the geographical area which could potentially be most influenced by the line. 4.1.2 In order to assess the likely impacts of the new line in terms of the day to day operations of local firms, knowledge of the following was required: • the current geographical scope of firms’ operations in terms of customers, suppliers etc; • • • • • views on the prospects for individual business sectors in the area; expectations on staff numbers and recruitment issues; the perceived strengths and weaknesses of firms’ current location; the significance of the movement of goods to the operation of firms; the travel behaviour of staff to and from work – strengths and weaknesses of the location in this context; and • the travel behaviour of staff in the course of work – strengths and weaknesses of the location in this context.

4.1.3 In addition, general awareness of the proposals was explored and firms were asked to give an initial broad estimate of the impact of the line’s re-opening on their business. available. 4.2 Summary of Business Interview Findings Sample 4.2.1 It was decided at an early stage that the interviews with businesses should be concentrated in areas of North Lanarkshire and West Lothian which are in reasonable proximity to the new line. businesses further afield eg in It was felt that interviews with and Glasgow would be Edinburgh A full report on the business interviews is separately

unproductive given the more marginal potential impacts and general relevance of the proposals. 4.2.2 Details of potential firms to be interviewed were produced by the client group. Where companies were willing to take part, interviews were then A total of conducted either at the firm’s premises or via the telephone. and 26 via the telephone.

37 interviews were successfully conducted – 11 were completed face to face

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4.2.3 The sample included distribution companies, retailers, manufacturers, banks, food producers and packers, car dealerships, plant hire companies, and call / contact centres. The composition of the sample of firms in terms of broad business sectors is shown in Table 4.1 below. This shows a good spread amongst these sectors which is fairly representative of the area. Table 4.1 Breakdown of sample of firms Sector Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Energy & Water Manufacturing Construction Retail, Wholesale / Hotel Transport and Communications Financial and Public Services Public and Other Services 0 3 1 2 3 4 2 0 4 0 3 8 3 2 West Lothian 1 North Lanarkshire 2

4.2.4 Four of the sample and some of the largest employers were call or contact centres, Sky and Intelligent Finance (IF) in Livingston, Be Cogent in Airdrie, and the Inland Revenue at Bathgate. These are significant employers in the area. 4.2.5 The location of the companies surveyed is shown by the green dots in Figure 4.1 below (NB some dots represent multiple entries).

Figure 4.1 Location of sample of firms

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4.2.6 In terms of the size of the companies, 30% of the sample had fewer than 50 employees, 24% had between 50 and 100 employees and 46% had more than 100 staff. The main results and conclusions from the interview programme are considered in the sections which follow. Staff Trends and Recruitment 4.2.7 Only five of the businesses surveyed reported that they had experienced a downward trend in employment levels in the recent past – the reasons given for this ranged from poor market conditions to issues with working hours and implications for benefit levels. The majority of firms therefore have maintained of increased their staff numbers in the recent past. 4.2.8 Over half the businesses reported staff turnover levels of less than 10%. The call centre companies did report significantly higher staff turnover however and there were other examples where turnover was as high as 30%. 4.2.9 The firms were fairly optimistic regarding future prospects, with 38% planning to take on more staff and 59% planning to retain their current staffing levels. Only a single firm indicated that they would be reducing staff numbers in the near future, due to the potential loss of staff to another site in the group, rather than redundancy. 4.2.10 A large number, some 21 of the 37 firms interviewed, reported difficulties in recruiting suitable staff. The issues raised varied widely, but were generally associated with: • a shortage of staff with the relevant skills (eg various trades, plant & HGV drivers, general sales); • • • suitability of working hours (late night retail and other shift work); attractiveness of the industry (food processing); and general exhaustion of the labour market in some sectors (eg call / contact centres).

4.2.11 Of particular interest are the comments made by the call / contact centres. Sky, IF, the Inland Revenue and Be Cogent all reported difficulties in recruiting suitable staff for their operations. Sky stated that they were now recruiting from outwith the local area, advertising in Glasgow and Edinburgh for staff. There is therefore evidence that the demand for call centre staff is exceeding supply in the area – and it was reported that there was some ‘poaching’ of staff taking place between call centres.

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Customers, Suppliers & Competitors 4.2.12 In order to obtain a picture of the geographical scope of the firms’ operations, they were asked to identify the location of their principal markets / customers, suppliers and competitors. 4.2.13 Figures 4.2 and 4.3 show the results for the Bathgate / Livingston and Airdrie firms respectively. The figures show the percentage of firms which identified each geographical area as their main markets – for example in Figure 4.2, 18% of firms indicated that their main market was the local area.

Main Customers / Markets
9% 5% 18%

Local
5%

Rest of central belt Rest of Scotland UK EU Rest of World

9%

54%

Main Suppliers
12% 15% 0% 12%

12%

Local Rest of central belt Rest of Scotland UK EU Rest of World

49%

Main Competitors
14% 14%

9%

9% 0%

Local Rest of central belt Rest of Scotland UK EU Rest of World

54%

Figure 4.2 Bathgate/Livingston firms’ main markets / suppliers / competitors

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Main Customers / Markets
6% 6%

Local
17% 38%

Rest of central belt Rest of Scotland UK EU Rest of World

27%

6%

Main Suppliers
12% 0% 18%

Local Rest of central belt Rest of Scotland
34% 24%

UK EU Rest of World

12%

Main Competitors
0% 29% 41% 0%

Local Rest of central belt Rest of Scotland UK EU Rest of World

18% 12%

Figure 4.3 Airdrie firms’ main markets / suppliers / competitors 4.2.14 There is a contrasting picture between the two areas. A higher proportion of the companies interviewed in the Airdrie area are more locally focussed in terms of their customers / markets and competitors compared to the Bathgate / Livingston firms. Around half of the West Lothian firms identified the ‘UK’ context as their main markets / suppliers and competitors. Views on business sectors 4.2.15 The companies were asked for their views on the prospects of their own individual business sectors.

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4.2.16 A majority, some 22 of the companies reported that they were ‘very optimistic’ (5) or ‘quite optimistic’ (17) about the future prospects for their business sector. A further six firms thought prospects were ‘neutral’, six were ‘quite pessimistic’ and 1 was ‘very pessimistic’. Two organisations, the Inland Revenue and the Procurator Fiscal’s office were ‘not applicable’ in this context. So around 63% were optimistic – this figure is in line with ‘Business Monitor’ figures reported by West Lothian Council. 4.2.17 The firms’ expectations of growth or decline for their individual businesses over the coming six months were then explored. In line with the above, a majority of companies (19) anticipated growth in staff numbers, with eight anticipating substantial growth (of >5%), and 11 moderate growth (of <5%). Of the remainder, 15 expected to remain broadly static and one foresaw moderate decline. 4.2.18 Constraints on the growth of each business as well as the main threats were then discussed. A wide range of factors were reported as being constraints and threats on the development of the organisations in the sample. These can be summarised as follows: • staff issues – lack of suitable staff in engineering, sales, food and livestock processing, machine operatives, call / contact centre staff; • equipment and site infrastructure issues – age of buildings, size of site, availability of plant vehicles, automation on site; • competition distilling; • regulatory factors – the Working Time Directive, Health & Safety requirements; • institutional and political factors – future of Inland Revenue, general political direction / climate; • wider economic issues – rising interest rates & consumer debt, demise of town centre shopping; and • declining markets in certain sectors – eg compressed air, some food sectors. 4.2.19 Clearly, the re-opening of the Airdrie-Bathgate line and associated passenger services would have the greatest potential effect on the constraints relating to staff availability. Views on Location 4.2.20 Aspects of the firms’ current location were then discussed starting with the length of time they had been at their current location. A large majority of firms (27 of the 37) had been at their current premises for more than issues – retail, financial services, manufacturing,

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10 years.

These are therefore well established businesses.

Eight of the

firms had been at their current location for less than five years, with two having been present for between five and 10 years. 4.2.21 The strengths and weaknesses of the firms’ present locations were discussed. The reported strengths of the West Lothian (Bathgate and Livingston) locations included: • access to the motorway network, so road access to Glasgow, Edinburgh and Stirling (frequently cited); • • • • security at Whitehill Industrial Estate; availability of large sites, flexibility of ‘out of town’ type locations; generally a central location; and cost of labour.

4.2.22 The reported weaknesses of the West Lothian locations included: • quality of staff available for employment (for Whitehill Industrial Estate area); • although separated from roads, pedestrian walkways / underpasses are not popular with those walking to work in central Livingston; • • poor access to / from Fife (delays and reliability); poor local public transport was reported by Sky and IF (particularly links from Bathgate station)6; • the poor local public transport exacerbates parking problems at the sites of these large employers – creates delays when core shifts change over; • poor or no local public transport for some industrial sites limiting potential staff; and • local site specific restrictions.

4.2.23 The reported strengths of the North Lanarkshire locations included: • good access to the motorway network, M8, M80 etc, so road access to Glasgow & Edinburgh; • good rail links to Glasgow;

Sky and IF have both implemented Green Travel Plans and work with WLC to improve public transport where it is being perceived as poor by staff. New services to Whitburn, Shotts and Carluke have recently been introduced.

6

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•

some established businesses value local presence and strong customer base;

•

High Street location in Airdrie and other ‘visible’ locations in the area;

• •

competitively priced office accommodation; and grant assistance has been important in some cases.

4.2.24 The weaknesses reported by the firms located in and around Airdrie in North Lanarkshire included: • • • • • • • perceived decline in Airdrie town centre affecting some businesses; congestion in Airdrie town centre; other traffic issues in Airdrie; some reported security problems; lack of late night public transport for shift workers; some general issues of poor environment; and lack of investment in Airdrie town centre.

4.2.25 Six of the sampled firms had plans to expand their premises on their current site and 28 intended to make no change. None were planning to contract on site. Three of the firms stated that there was a high chance that they would relocate in the foreseeable future, the reasons being to capitalise on the sale of their site to a housing developer, the need for new factory infrastructure, and as a cost cutting measure. The remaining firms said there was only low or zero likelihood of relocation. 4.2.26 Most of firms who were interviewed were therefore largely content at their current locations. 4.2.27 The issue of whether firms’ location put them at a competitive advantage or disadvantage was also considered. For those serving predominantly Scottish markets, the ‘central’ locations typical of the businesses surveyed were seen as a competitive advantage. Those with European markets also recognised the disadvantage they face compared to competitors in the south of England in terms of accessing these markets. 4.2.28 In West Lothian, a range of local building, access, parking and infrastructure issues were raised in terms of ways in which the firms’ locations could be improved. Public transport links to Glasgow and Edinburgh were identified by Sky and the Inland Revenue as desirable improvements. The existing bus links from Sky to Edinburgh did not fit well with current shift patters at the site.

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4.2.29 Most of the potential improvements identified by the firms in the Airdrie area related to traffic issues in Airdrie and the surrounding motorways / dual carriageways. Be Cogent have problems with public transport access and temporary parking arrangements and identified better public transport as being the main thing which could improve their location. Movement of Goods 4.2.30 The importance of the movement of goods to each firm was explored. Despite the presence of several service based industries in the sample, 30 of the 37 firms stated that the movement of goods was ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ significant in terms of the operation of their business. 4.2.31 Of the firms for whom transport was a significant part of their business, there was an even split between those who carried their own goods and those who used haulage companies, while some combined both approaches. There was very little use of rail reported for the movement of goods – two firms reported using rail (container) and one rail (bulk). Some 29 firms in the sample reported using HGVs and 26 used LGVs. reported using shipping as a means of transport. 4.2.32 As suggested by the above, there was a very wide range of figures reported in terms of the cost of moving goods relative to turnover. Five firms in the sample reported that transport costs amounted to more than 50% of their turnover, eight stated between 50% and 10% with the remainder less than 10% or un-stated / unknown. 4.2.33 The firms were also asked about the consequences of late or unreliable delivery of goods to their premises. Some 13 firms in the sample (around 35%) reported the use of ‘Just in Time’ (JIT) processes, which involves minimal stock retention, and reliance on timely delivery of supplies etc. These firms are most at risk from unreliable journey times. Any small reduction in road traffic brought about by improved public transport can have a small but disproportionate effect on the reliability of journey times and is therefore significant for firms operating JIT. business. Movement of Staff 4.2.34 The firms’ use of the transport system was further explored from the point of view of the movement of staff, both to and from work, and in the course of work. Only two employers (Sky and IF) reported having a formal travel plan either in the making or in place. These were a local authority requirement for particular circumstances. All except seven firms reported that the reliability of journey times is a significant issue for their A further 11 firms

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4.2.35 Unsurprisingly, ‘car driver – single occupant’ was overwhelmingly the most common means of travelling to / from work. This was reported as the ‘main’ mode by virtually all firms. companies. Four firms had a formal car share scheme in place with informal car sharing stated to be found at around a dozen IF reported actual numbers and even here, over 80% of staff are travelling by car. 4.2.36 A further general trend was evident whereby the higher paid staff travelled from further afield by car with the lower paid staff being more locally based, using a mixture of car and public transport (but still predominantly car). 4.2.37 Two Airdrie firms did however report that ‘bus’ was the main mode of travel for their employees. 4.2.38 The firms were also asked where their employees lived. identified areas of North Lanarkshire and vice versa.7 4.2.39 Problems associated specifically with the movement of staff movement to / from work were then explored. Observations made regarding problems encountered in travelling to / from included: • local and motorway congestion (Airdrie / Raith interchange, and M8 / Forth Road Bridge in particular); • timing of (often infrequent) existing bus services relative to staff shift times; • • bus links to Whitehill / Chapelhall Industrial Estates; reliability of existing train services and knock on effect on connecting buses; • • • no public transport access off Junction 4 of the M8; lack of public transport services west of Livingston; reduced public transport services at weekends / evenings / early mornings; and • lack of public transport travelling east from Airdrie. The responses

underlined the earlier picture whereby very few firms in West Lothian

4.2.40 Around two thirds of the sample did identify problems associated with staff travelling to / from work. The remaining third were not aware of or did not report any specific problems. In some cases there was a real lack of awareness / knowledge of staff travel patterns.

NCR Ltd at Eurocentral is an example of where new bus services from Livingston have shown that people will travel between West Lothian and North Lanarkshire, if good public transport is available.

7

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4.2.41 The extent of travel undertaken in the course of work was also discussed, where a wide-ranging pattern of travel within work time was uncovered. The frequency of travel in the course of work varies widely by company. The distribution companies in the sample have HGVs leaving daily from the site, however a large proportion of businesses have only a handful of sales and management staff (often) with company cars who travel daily in their own car or van. In some cases there is quite a high volume of travel between different sites such as with IF who have sites in Livingston and Dunfermline. 4.2.42 The private car or van is therefore even more dominant than was the case when travel to / from work was considered. The problems identified by the firms in terms of travel in the course of work reflect the dominance of the car – some of which were: • • Forth Road Bridge / A8000 and Kingston Bridge – congestion; peak hour congestion on M8 – travel to central Edinburgh and Glasgow; • • frequency of road works; and congestion accessing the M8.

4.2.43 The new line would create opportunities for greater use of public transport for travel within work time. Awareness of Proposals and Likely Impacts 4.2.44 Less than half of the businesses interviewed were previously aware of the proposals to re-open the line. 4.2.45 The firms were asked if they anticipated that people from their firm would use the new line. The results are shown in Table 4.2 below. Table 4.2 Anticipated use of new line Area Bathgate Airdrie Total Yes 14 8 22 No 7 8 15

4.2.46 Overall, around 60% of firms anticipated that their staff would make some use of the new line. In terms of the use of the line, below is a selection of comments made by Bathgate firms: • ‘staff would if they knew it existed’ Inland Revenue;

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• •

‘some employees might use the train for work’ Arnold Clark; Wincanton Logistics thought that no one from their staff would use the line but the line would make Bathgate a better place to live, people would use the train to go shopping in Glasgow. between a train or bus would be desirable; It was thought that the train would be popular and having the choice

•

Dacoll staff would use the line in the course of work to go to meetings in Glasgow and the few people that live in Glasgow might use the train to come in and go home from work;

•

for people at Sky to use the train, better bus services from the station to Sky would be needed;

•

conditions that would need to be met in order for 21-50 people to use the train would be a bus link from the station to the IF site and promotion of the train times etc;

•

ABP Ltd would not use the train for freight because Gavin Pearson thinks it is too slow, he thinks that people in Bathgate will use the train to go to Glasgow shopping on a Saturday; and

•

although UCB (United Central Bakeries) staff could use the train the problem would be for them getting to Whitehill Industrial site at the right time, bearing in mind the shifts operate 24 hours seven days a week. A bus would be needed to bring people to the site.

4.2.47 Comments made by the Airdrie firms included: • one or two staff, and customers of John Orr and Sons who live at Caldercruix may use the train; • people from Scotshield could take the train from Caldercruix then a bus to the site. The train is more likely to be used for people travelling to Edinburgh for training courses; • • people from Livingston might use the new line (general); Central Motors felt that the line would be mostly used for social reasons. However the line would also increase the economic The advantage of having access to prosperity of the area which causes more housing development and more business for the area. more staff who could travel to the site is also recognised; • the line would not be used by Christies staff at the bakery but they would hope that the line might bring more customers into Airdrie town centre;

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•

for some in Airdrie the present route to Edinburgh is Airdrie – Glasgow Queen Street – Edinburgh, or Airdrie - Motherwell – Edinburgh. Re-opening the line will allow a one stage journey from Airdrie to Edinburgh (general); and

•

Be Cogent felt that the line would be very positive for their recruitment drive.

4.2.48 These comments from the firms in the sample illustrate how they have recognised the potential benefits of the line to them, in terms of accessing staff and travelling in the course of work. Some of the comments however, included caveats such as the need for connecting bus service etc. recognised. 4.2.49 The firms were then asked to think about the ways in which ways the opening of the line could potentially affect their businesses, in terms of access to customers, suppliers, labour, effects on staff retention / expansion, and effects on competitiveness. 4.2.50 The most significant anticipated impact was on access to labour. (11) positive effect concerning accessing labour. Around The potential for the line to act as a catalyst for regeneration was also

70% of the sample reported a major (1), moderate (14) or minor Particularly positive were the call / contact centres who struggle to recruit enough staff. 4.2.51 It should also be noted that some businesses felt that the line might offer better opportunities to their current staff and hence they might actually lose staff, or they may have to pay higher wages for staff from further a field. 4.2.52 Around one third of the sample anticipated a positive impact in terms of staff retention, recognising that improved travel to work can make staff less likely to look for opportunities elsewhere. Ten of the 37 firms also reported a positive effect on access to markets – retailers being prominent here. 4.2.53 Only six of the firms anticipated that this new line would improve their overall competitiveness however. new line would affect their One reason given for this was that the local competitors in the same way

(eg competition between call centres), so although they would enjoy access to a wider labour force, so too would their competitors. 4.2.54 The smallest effect was the anticipated effect on access to suppliers. This could be anticipated from a rail scheme, with no planned rail freight component.

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4.2.55 Some of the comments made supporting the choices discussed above for access to customers / markets were: • some of Motorway Cars customers would use the train when they drop off their car, the company courtesy bus will still drop off local people but could drop others at the train station. Arnold Clark; and • John Orr felt that it was unlikely that people from Armadale would travel to Airdrie as they generally go to Bathgate, which is in the other direction. Same for

4.2.56 In terms of access to labour and staff retention, the following comments were made: • at present the mindset is such that people will not travel to work in Bathgate - with the re-opening of the line this might adjust this mindset and open up a new labour pool. It could also cause people to choose to move away from Bathgate for work (Sibcas); • the line would bring about increased house building and make the area more attractive, and hence improve the available workforce in the area. Living in West Lothian, there are a limited number of jobs and at present there is not an option to get to work in Glasgow by public transport. The line will be good for businesses in Bathgate. (Wincanton Logistics); • Aldi at Bathgate feel that they might get more warehouse staff if the railway reopened; • • • ‘widens labour pool’ Inland Revenue; Terra Trek might have better access to more technicians; some people from the villages in between Airdrie and Bathgate might travel to work in Airdrie however they may choose to travel onto Glasgow according to John Orr and Sons; • people will have more freedom of movement to get work was a comment made by the Procurator Fiscal representative; • ‘younger people who live in Blackridge might be attracted to work in Airdrie’ Scotshield Security Systems; • • Be Cogent felt that the line would help with retention; and Sweeney Plant Hire feel that with the line it would be possible to attract apprentices from Bathgate or Armadale to work in Airdrie.

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4.3 Wider Stakeholder Consultation 4.3.1 The views of the following organisations were sought regarding the possible effects of the proposals on the location of economic activity and employment: • Chambers of Commerce in Edinburgh, Glasgow, West Lothian and Lanarkshire; • • • • Scottish Enterprise Glasgow; Scottish Enterprise Edinburgh; Town Centre Initiatives – North Lanarkshire Council; and Freight Transport Association.

Edinburgh Chamber of Commerce - comments 4.3.2 The positives envisaged by the ECC were: ‘(1) less congestion, particularly on the M8 and approaches into the city both AM and PM, (2) making it easier / quicker / less stressful for existing employees resident in the North Lanarkshire area to get to their Edinburgh based work, (3) makes it easier for potential employees resident in North Lanarkshire area to access Edinburgh jobs market, which should be good for those industries with recruitment difficulties (specifically tourism and retail), (4) easier for Edinburgh firms to travel to meet customers in North Lanarkshire.’ West Lothian Chamber of Commerce - comments 4.3.3 ‘In general, more public transport through to Glasgow will be good. The line will take some of the pressure off the M8 which will be beneficial. Having better transport links allows people to take up employment opportunities more quickly. Any increase in business in the Lothians and Lanarkshire West Lothian has takes the pressure off Edinburgh and Glasgow Councils. can be a problem. 4.3.4 Anything that helps to build up companies and help them prosper in West Lothian is beneficial. A train line will help with this. More flexible The transport links that allow people to travel outside the hours of 0900 and 1700 would be an important objective that the train could meet. movements that may be utilised are quite local, Bathgate to Airdrie and Airdrie to Livingston. At present these journeys can only be undertaken by car or bus. 4.3.5 West Lothian Chamber of Commerce are very positive about the train line re-opening and are keen for this to take place because it is likely to create growth in the West Lothian area.’

the advantage of lower costs for businesses but getting staff to work there

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Lanarkshire Chamber of Commerce - Comments 4.3.6 ‘Any improvements in transport are a good thing, so the railway re-opening is a good thing. In particular attracting labour from Livingston and Bathgate to Lanarkshire is desirable. The line will provide an alternative to driving for those that live in Livingston or Bathgate and want to work in (North) Lanarkshire and vice versa. 4.3.7 The Chamber of Commerce group detect no east, west divide and believe that people will commute wherever necessary to find employment. In fact people now travel significant distances for work. 4.3.8 There is a shortage of labour in the construction and retail sectors and a shortage of HGV drivers as well. Better facilities to move the labour force might reduce these shortages in Lanarkshire. Lanarkshire also suffers from a shortage of lawyers and accountants, who prefer to work in large cities where the pay is better. With better access to Lanarkshire this skilled, well paid work force might choose to work there. 4.3.9 There is no desire for Lanarkshire businesses to use rail instead of road freight. Mossend (Eurocentral) is not fully utilised at present. It is only likely that businesses will move to rail if fuel prices increase significantly. Businesses dislike rail because they cannot guarantee how long their goods will sit in a siding - there are also costs for loading and unloading which mean that doing so more than once is not cost effective. For the time being road transport is more cost effective than rail for the majority of movements. 4.3.10 The Chamber of Commerce are keen to improve the movement of tourists in their area. The only way to access Strathclyde Country Park is by car. Although the Airdrie-Bathgate line will not pass directly near this park exploiting any opportunities for tourists that lie along the new line will be in the interests of Lanarkshire Chamber of Commerce.’ Scottish Enterprise Edinburgh 4.3.11 ‘It would be a good idea’ because it opens up the labour market in between Edinburgh and Glasgow. 4.3.12 At present Edinburgh has a particular shortage of staff in the following industries: tourism, financial services and healthcare. Due to the high cost of housing in Edinburgh, people in these industries cannot easily afford to live there. Finding a house under £80,000 in the city is difficult and even with mortgages at five times salary you would need to earn over £16,000 per year just to be able to attain this level of mortgage.

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4.3.13 Edinburgh needs better access from the west, which the line would provide. It was also thought that it was important to have a combination of fast non-stop trains between Edinburgh and Glasgow and slower stopping trains. Scottish Enterprise Glasgow 4.3.14 ‘The opening of this line will enable the people from the east of Glasgow city to have a line straight through to Edinburgh instead of having to first travel into the Glasgow city centre. There are significant development proposals for the east end of Glasgow under the name of ‘Gateway Glasgow’ comprising both the provision of business space and residential areas. 4.3.15 Accessibility to the east end of the city will be a key factor in the success of these proposals in attracting employment / residents into the area. It is therefore SE Glasgow's view that the line would support existing businesses and will certainly impact on the future redevelopment of the major redevelopment area within the east end of Glasgow.’ 4.3.16 Both enterprise companies therefore identified wider, labour market

efficiency impacts for Edinburgh and Glasgow, which are additional to the local impacts associated solely with the redistribution of economic activity in North Lanarkshire and West Lothian. North Lanarkshire Council – Town Centre Initiatives 4.3.17 The Town Centre Initiative provides an interface between town centres retailers and the council. It operates in the towns of Airdrie, Coatbridge, Motherwell, Wishaw, Bellshill, Kilsyth and Cumbernauld. The line will provide better access to leisure facilities and employment opportunities for the residents of these towns. At present it is only possible to travel west from Airdrie and the new line will give people the choice of travelling east. 4.3.18 All of the towns listed above are a short drive from Glasgow, Falkirk, and Stirling where there is a lot of retail competition. As a result, retailing in Lanarkshire is somewhat depressed and a driving culture has resulted. 4.3.19 Even those that take the train tend to travel into Glasgow and out again on a fast train. Trends have been observed in peoples’ movement as follows people in Bathgate tend to travel to Livingston; people from Armadale tend to travel to Airdrie and people from Chapelhall travel to Motherwell. 4.3.20 Leisure facilities that are close to train stations include: • the Summerlee Heritage Museum that is near Coatbridge Sunnyside station;

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•

the Time Capsule has an ice rink and pool and is within walking distance of Coatbridge Sunnyside and Blairhill stations; and

•

there is a Scottish League football stadium (Airdrie United) and new public playing fields near Drumgelloch station, and Albion Rovers’ ground at Cliftonhill is a short walk from Coatdyke station.

4.3.21 TCI is aware of a number of projects being pursued by NLC to regenerate Airdrie town centre. Projects such as the Airdrie Business Centre would benefit from the improved access to the east which the new line will provide. 4.3.22 It was felt that the re-opening of the line could play a significant role in the regeneration of Airdrie, integrating well with other policy initiatives being pursued by the public sector. Freight Transport Association 4.3.23 The Freight Transport Association were approached for comments regarding the potential use of the new line for rail freight. The issue was discussed at a meeting of Freight Transport Association members in April 2004. meeting was attended by rail freight operators including Freightliner. 4.3.24 It felt that there is no obvious role for the line at present in terms of providing paths for the movement of rail freight, and therefore the line was unlikely to be used in the short term by freight operators. waste, now or in the near future. The one issue which was raised was the potential to use the line for the movement of This

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5 Land Use – Transport Modelling Results
5.1 Introduction 5.1.1 This Chapter reports the modelling work undertaken to provide quantitative forecasts of the effects of the new line in terms of the location of population and employment. The first section outlines the modelling approach that has been applied and the background to this. The second describes the impacts that the modelling work has forecast. The third appraises these impacts. 5.1.2 It is important to keep clear the distinction in the second and third sections between impacts and appraisal - eg between forecasts of where employment is likely to increase or decrease and whether these changes represent benefits or disbenefits. 5.1.3 It is also important to note that the appraisal process concentrates on what is required for STAG and hence on the issues of whether it is appropriate for the Scottish Executive to support (and spend public money on) the scheme. This appraisal at the Scotland-wide level may be different from that of the local authorities affected. For example, the Executive might see no benefit to Scotland as a whole in encouraging employment growth in one particular area rather than another, whilst the local authorities of that area might have strong views as to which outcome is preferable. 5.1.4 STAG (paragraph 8.13.3) recognises that relocation of economic activity can be measured in either monetary or employment terms, but notes (in 8.13.9) that employment measures are particularly relevant where regeneration is concerned - as is the case in this project. It is also the case that for this particular scheme, the main impacts are in terms of the redistribution of jobs within the Lothian and Lanarkshire areas, which are forecast by the model directly in terms of jobs. The analysis and appraisal here are therefore (The results could be converted into strengthen the case for the railway based on numbers of jobs, of workers etc as discussed above, rather than on Gross Value Added or incomes. different form and would not monetary units, but this would simply present the same impacts in a re-opening.) 5.2 Modelling Approach and Background 5.2.1 The modelling approach to Airdrie-Bathgate has made use of the

TMfS/TELMoS land-use/transport interaction modelling system which has been developed for the Scottish Executive over the past two years. 5.2.2 TMfS is a multi-modal transport modelling system developed by MVA as a major extension and enhancement of the earlier Central Scotland Transport Models. It covers all of Scotland with the exception of Inverness and the Highlands – around 95% of Scotland’s population.

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5.2.3 TELMoS extends TMfS into a land-use/transport interaction model by linking TMfS to an application of David Simmonds Consultancy’s DELTA land-use/economic modelling package. This application has been developed jointly by David Simmonds Consultancy and MVA. 5.2.4 Full documentation of the TMfS and TELMoS systems has been prepared for the Executive. The following paragraphs provide a brief outline of how the model works. 5.2.5 The transport model is used in the conventional manner. That is, it forecasts the pattern of travel expected on an average working day of a chosen year. The years represented by the transport model for TELMoS are 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2021. The operation of TMfS within TELMoS is almost exactly the same as when it is used alone. The key difference when it is used in a land-use/transport interaction mode is that the land-use and economic data driving the demands for transport come from the land-use/economic model rather than being prepared ‘manually’. 5.2.6 The land-use/economic model forecasts changes in one-year steps. It starts from a database derived from the 2001 Census and other sources, including Scottish Economic Statistics, Valuation Office data, property market data assembled for CSTCS, Scottish Executive crime statistics, Historic Scotland information, and population densities from Regional Trends. It also includes accessibility measures calculated within the model using Census residence and employment statistics, and other synthetic data, combined with 2001 outputs from TMfS. 2021. It takes that database as given and runs forward to Within this sequence, the transport model is run, as already

mentioned, in 2006 and 2011, with the possibility of a final run at 2021. 5.2.7 The overall Land-Use/Transport Interaction Model consists of four

components. These components and the general linkages between them are shown in Figure 5.1 below, and the following paragraphs outline these briefly.

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Employment Change

Work Opportunities

Economic Model

Consumer Demand

Urban Model

Property Costs

Migration Model

Property Costs

Household Moves

Generalised Costs

Freight Movements

Trip Ends

Generalised Costs

Transport Model

Figure 5.1 Main model components and linkages 5.2.8 The transport model (TMfS) takes the location of activities, by zone (of which there are 1096 across the modelled area), for a given year, and forecasts travel by car and by public transport between zones. In doing so, it estimates the costs and times of travel between each pair of zones, allowing for the congestion caused by the forecast traffic. 5.2.9 The costs and times for each type of motorised travel are summarised as generalised costs, which provide a single variable describing how difficult it is to travel between any pair of zones for a particular purpose during a particular period of the working day. Generalised costs for walking have also been estimated. These generalised costs are passed from the transport model to the economic and urban models. 5.2.10 In years for which the transport model is not run, generalised costs are assumed to remain unchanged from the preceding ‘transport model year’. For example, the generalised costs for 2011 are used for the whole of the following decade (it is impractical to apply it more frequently). 5.2.11 The economic model forecasts the growth (or decline) of different sectors of the economy in different sub-regions of Scotland. The sectors are listed in Table 5.1 and the sub-regions are shown in Figure 5.2 (following this Chapter). It takes a number of inputs, including independent forecasts of The linkages which affect this growth in the Scottish economy; the model is concerned with the distribution of this economic activity within Scotland. distribution are shown in Figure 5.1, these are: • generalised costs of transport, already mentioned;

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•

consumers’ demands for goods and services, from the urban model; and

•

property costs of employment location (rents), likewise from the urban model.

Table 5.1 Regional Economic Model Sectors Regional Economic Model Sectors 01 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 Agriculture, forestry and fishing Mining Manufacturing Energy and water Construction Distribution and catering Transport and communication Finance and business Public administration Other services

5.2.12 All of these may be directly or indirectly affected by transport changes such as road or railway schemes. 5.2.13 Within the economic model, two distinct processes are represented. process deals with: • • • where goods and services are produced within Scotland, where they are consumed, and the resulting trades in goods and services between different parts of Scotland, and to the rest of the world. One

5.2.14 These variables respond quickly to changes in the transport system. The other, slower, process deals with the pattern of investment across the sub-regions of Scotland. This process only gradually responds to changes in the transport system. Both processes will tend to increase investment and production in areas of Scotland which have improving access both internally and to other parts of Scotland. Within the model, these increases will be at the expense of other parts of the country.

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5.2.15 The key outputs of the economic model are changes in employment by sector and sub-region, and these are passed to the urban model. Data on the demands for freight transport are also passed to the transport model in the appropriate years. 5.2.16 The urban model deals with the location of households and jobs by zone within each area, and with the processes of development which provide the build spaces in which households and jobs can be accommodated. The location of households at this level is strongly influenced by the availability of housing, new and second-hand; likewise the location of jobs is strongly influenced by the availability of appropriate types of commercial floorspace. New floorspace supply is in turn restricted by planning policies. to some extent by the accessibility of each zone. transport model. The locations of households and jobs within the stock of buildings are influenced Different measures of accessibility are calculated using the generalised costs output from the These measures act as influences on different activities: for example, households are influenced by accessibility to workplaces and services, whilst businesses are influenced by accessibility for potential workers and customers. This is the key linkage through which transport Note that many of these effects can affects the local pattern of location, and through which different transport schemes produce different forecasts. involve different uses of a given stock of buildings, eg an increase in employment may involve an increase in the ratio of workers to floorspace within a zone rather than the provision of additional floorspace. 5.2.17 Given these and various other influences, the urban model calculates the location or relocation of households and jobs, which are critical inputs to the transport model. 5.2.18 The urban model takes account of household budgets, and uses these to calculate the consumer demand for goods and services in each area. As already mentioned, this is an input to the economic model. It also estimates the rent values arising from the competition for different kinds of property in each zone. The resulting costs are passed both to the economic model, and to the migration model. The urban model also passes information on job opportunities to the migration model. 5.2.19 The migration model forecasts the pattern of migration of households between the different sub-regions of Scotland. Movements within sub-regions are forecast in the urban model. The critical inputs which can vary as a result of different transport schemes are those from the urban model, ie job opportunities and housing costs. Job opportunities are a strong incentive to migration. Housing costs are a weak disincentive.

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5.2.20 There is no direct link from transport to migration: better transport does not in itself encourage migration (indeed, it may discourage migration if better transport allows increases in long-distance commuting). However, if better transport leads to employment growth, or allows better access to employment, that will tend to encourage migration into the area affected. 5.2.21 The overall land-use/transport interaction model therefore consists of these four components, with the economic, urban and migration models running in one-year steps and the transport model running at five or ten year intervals. 5.2.22 Multiplier effects, such as additional jobs generated by the expenditure of additional (attracted) population, are generated within the model calculations. Because the model allows for spatial interactions between

zones and between areas, multiplier effects do not necessarily arise in the same location as the direct effects that generate them. 5.2.23 Construction and operational employment resulting from transport

investments are not forecast by the model and are not included in the impact figures discussed in the following section. further below. 5.3 Impacts: testing and results Inputs 5.3.1 The land-use impacts of a transport scheme (such as the Airdrie-Bathgate re-opening) are tested by running the model twice, with and without the scheme in question. The impacts are then identified as the differences The without-scheme case is usually between the two sets of results. referred to as the ‘Reference Case’. 5.3.2 In the present case the line is assumed for modelling purposes to open in 2011, this being the most appropriate of the years for which the transport model can be run. The with-scheme test is therefore a run of the land-use/economic model (DELTA) which differs from the Reference Case only in receiving transport model outputs which reflect the immediate transport impacts of the scheme in 2011. These impacts include, in addition to the most direct improvements in the generalised cost of travel across the existing Airdrie-Bathgate ‘gap’, the consequences of the more frequent services between Bathgate and Edinburgh, the benefits of more direct services to Edinburgh and Lothian from some stations west of Glasgow, and any consequences in terms of decongestion of the road network as a result of travellers switching from car to rail. The contribution of construction and operational employment to the appraisal is discussed

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5.3.3 Note that in order to focus strictly on the consequences of the transport scheme itself, the Reference Case and scheme tests use the same assumptions about the levels of development that will be permitted in each zone. In the West Lothian area, these assumptions were substantially revised from earlier TELMoS work (ie the inputs supplied in late 2003) in order to take account of further work on housing and employment land provision under the Edinburgh and the Lothians Structure Plan 2015. In the North Lanarkshire area, the assumptions have been prepared in advance of Local Plan revision. They include permission for substantial development on the Ravenscraig site, so the rates of change in the Airdrie corridor (with or without the Airdrie-Bathgate re-opening) are to some extent reduced by the concentration of growth at Ravenscraig. 5.3.4 The earlier inputs (which were used in preparing the Executive’s current trip end forecasts for standard TMfS operation) did include provision for Structure Plan allocations to West Lothian; it is the distribution of these within the district that has been revised. 5.3.5 Table 5.2 shows the figures used for the Structure Plan allocations. Table 5.2 SP allocations - residential development and employment land Residential development: dwellings 20072012 Armadale East Calder Livingston Uphall & Broxburn West Calder Winchburgh Total 800 1270 4450 1400 2070 7550 2200 3340 12000 11 38 18 65 0 29 103 630 1030 1660 0 750 1000 20122021 1250 1800 Total 2000 2800 20072012 10 4 13 Employment land: hectares 20122021 17 8 22 Total 27 12 35

Note: only Structure Plan-related allocations are tabulated. 5.3.6 Changes have also been made in the provision of employment (also shown in Table 5.2) and education land (two additional secondary schools in Winchburgh and one in East Calder; primary schools approximately one per additional 1000 dwellings). retail and other services. Allowance is also made for the expansion of

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5.3.7 Further commentary is provided in Chapter 6 regarding the details of how the railway re-opening and station proposals might affect the prospects for development around the stations. This will take account of details of the development process which are not reflected in the modelling. Results 5.3.8 As we would expect for a rail scheme between two city regions which are already reasonably well linked by other public transport routes as well as by private transport, the impacts are most marked at local levels around the stations where the frequency and/or range of service will be most markedly improved. 5.3.9 The maps which follow at the end of this Chapter show that the scheme has positive impacts on groups of zones along the line in terms of both employment and population. All of these maps show the differences The maps for between the ‘with-re-opening’ case and the ‘Reference Case’ as forecast for 2021, ie 10 years after the modelled re-opening date. absolute changes (Figures 5.3 and 5.4 for employment and population) respectively both use green ‘pies’ to show where increases are forecast, and grey ‘pies’ to show decreases; the size of the pie is proportional to the forecast impact. For both employment and population the major positive In general these are small effects are around Bathgate and around Airdrie, with very little absolute effect in the corridor between the two towns. population respectively. percentage changes, as shown in Figures 5.5 and 5.6 for employment and There are further small positive impacts on Away from the corridor served population in the Glasgow-Airdrie corridor.

by the railway, most zones show very small losses (relative to the Reference Case), corresponding to very small numbers of persons or jobs diverted to locate in the Bathgate-Airdrie corridor. 5.3.10 These detailed maps show that positive impacts are generally occurring in the expected locations, ie those where the accessibility gain from improved public transport across the Airdrie-Bathgate ‘gap’ is greatest. these maps do not make it easy to see the overall effects. However The graphs because of the number of zones to consider, especially in the Airdrie area shown in Figure 5.7 have therefore been prepared to summarise these impacts for corridors within West Lothian and within North Lanarkshire (the corridor definitions are shown in Figure 5.8). 5.3.11 In West Lothian, the Bathgate corridor gains approximately 2000 residents and approximately 900 jobs by 2021; the Livingston corridor shows marginal gains and the Linlithgow corridor marginal losses. In North Lanarkshire, the Airdrie corridor gains around 1800 residents and just over 600 jobs, with both the Cumbernauld and Motherwell corridors showing slight losses.

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5.3.12 The

graphs

also

emphasise

how

the

impacts

build

up

over

time.

For population impacts, most of the impact occurs over five years, with relatively little change thereafter. Employment impacts are generally more spread out over the whole of the decade that has been modelled after the re-opening; although we have not modelled the years after 2021, we would not expect significant further employment impacts beyond then. The longer employment responses are partly because many employers take longer to respond to change than households, and partly because much of the employment change is itself in response to the population change and is therefore in gradual response to the growth of population which itself is spread over approximately five years. (Note that the employment impacts show a kink in the trend around 2019. This is a recurring feature of DELTA employment results due to the way in which different time lags work through the model. It should probably not exist, but its presence does not significantly distort the pattern of the results. It may mean that the 2021 impacts are slightly understated, but not so much so as to affect any conclusions which might be drawn from the work). 5.3.13 In all these cases it should be kept in mind that ‘losses’ or ‘gains’ are relative to the Reference Case and not necessarily absolute increases or decreases over time. 5.3.14 The district total impacts, shown in Figure 5.9 confirm that West Lothian and North Lanarkshire both show net gains in population and employment as a result of the scheme. Given that the model is designed to distribute a fixed total of population and employment within Scotland, these gains are (within the model) necessarily at the expense of other parts of the country. (The possibility of net gains at national level is not modelled but is considered in the following section). 5.4 Appraisal 5.4.1 The appraisal of economic and activity location impacts is based on the principle that relocation of activity within Scotland can constitute benefits if the relocation is towards areas which are either • officially identified as in need of economic or social assistance; and/or • are identified as particular growth locations in approved planning documents. 5.4.2 The map of Assisted Areas (see Appendix B) shows much of

North Lanarkshire as falling into the Development Areas with 20% aid limit (the highest level in Lowland Scotland), and part of West Lothian as falling into the Areas with 10% aid limit. impacts fall within these areas. regarded as constituting a benefit. Most of the zones showing positive Even allowing for some of the gains

potentially being at the expense of other Assisted Areas, this can be

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5.4.3 In terms of the Objective 2 designation in West Lothian, this applies to an area which includes approximately half of Bathgate itself, plus areas to the south and west including the settlements of Armadale, Whitburn and Blackburn. The corresponding TELMoS zones show positive impacts. There are more positive impacts (in absolute and percentage terms) in other zones immediately to the east, towards Edinburgh, but nevertheless the scheme can be regarded as having some benefit in these terms as well. 5.4.4 The impacts of the scheme have also been plotted in terms of changes in numbers of residents in work against a background which identifies the 15% most-deprived wards in Scotland (Community Regeneration Fund (CRF) areas). These are shown as Figures 3.10 to 3.12 for the corridor area as a whole, the Airdrie area, and the Bathgate area respectively. These show the impacts at the TELMoS zone level against the background which highlights the CRF eligible data zones. Note that the changes in resident workers can include the results both of: • residents in the zone gaining employment in the re-opening case when in the Reference Case they are unemployed; and • working persons moving into the zone in the re-opening case when in the Reference Case they would not have done so (or working residents staying in the zone in the re-opening case when in the Reference Case they would have moved away).

5.4.5 Both of these effects are relevant to reducing the level or the concentration of problems associated with unemployment and its consequences in these most-deprived areas. The maps show that; • there is a cluster of small positive effects (gains in resident workers definitely occurring in most-deprived zones) in the corridor from Glasgow towards Airdrie; • there are larger gains in resident workers close to, and possibly in, most-deprived zones around Airdrie and Coatbridge; • likewise there are relatively large gains in resident workers close to and partly within in most-deprived zones in the Bathgate-Livingstone area; and • there are some deprived zones in the north-west of Edinburgh where the re-opening is forecast to reduce the number of resident workers.

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5.4.6 Given that a railway re-opening and improvement scheme is necessarily a somewhat blunt instrument for addressing problems of localised economic and social deprivation, we would appraise these impacts as showing that the scheme will make a positive contribution to tackling these issues. This contribution will be particularly important in the corridor from the East End of Glasgow to Airdrie, which has a markedly greater concentration of social deprivation than the rest of the corridor through which the line passes. 5.4.7 In relation to the Edinburgh and the Lothians Structure Plan 2015, the railway re-opening is supportive of the core development proposals in the Winchburgh / Broxburn / Uphall area and at Armadale. However, it is not particularly supportive of the core development proposals for Livingston and the Almond Valley, in that it tends to draw activity away from this corridor in favour of the new railway corridor slightly to the north. 5.4.8 The Glasgow and Clyde Valley Structure Plan 2000 identified Coatbridge as an urban renewal area. The renewal process will be given some support by the re-opening scheme which will tend to increase demand for housing and commercial property there. 5.4.9 The modelling described above does not include construction and operational impacts related to re-opening and running the line. In appraisal terms, these have to be treated with caution, because there is always an abundant supply of schemes (transport and other) which would employ people in building and running operations. 5.4.10 Regarding construction impacts, more than half of the total cost (as shown in the draft TEE report) is allocated to permanent way, electrification, signalling and telecommunications work, and to remediation of mining and environmental problems. These are specialised tasks which would almost This makes it difficult to comment on

certainly be put out to competitive tender amongst the relatively small number of firms in each market. where the money would be spent, except to note that some of it is likely to spent (directly or indirectly) outside Scotland, and that the expenditure is unlikely to be particularly concentrated in the Airdrie-Bathgate corridor. There would be some local expenditure, through local purchase of supporting services both for the specialist contractors themselves (including for example temporary storage and site security services) and for their staff (accommodation) while working in the area, though proximity of the scheme to both Edinburgh and Glasgow means that ‘local’ may not mean ‘within the corridor’. 5.4.11 Other expenditure, notably that on earthworks, structures, stations, fencing, and utilities, would be less specialised tasks which could be carried out by local contractors, and for which there would be less need or incentive to import services from elsewhere. Again, however, proximity to the two major cities means that there is likely to be competition for these contracts from

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builders, civil engineering contractors etc in the cities as well as those closer to the corridor itself. 5.4.12 STAG also emphasises that any employment generated in the construction of a transport scheme only counts as a benefit if the persons involved would otherwise be unemployed or under-employed. It points out (para 8.12.46) that ‘Construction is a sector where in many areas there are skill shortages, and the use of construction labour for one project will in such areas simply displace that labour from other projects, resulting in delays to other work and/or escalation of construction costs.’ The same point applies (at present) to at least some of the more specialised railway sectors such as signalling. 5.4.13 Given the general need for caution in considering construction impacts, the likelihood that the impacts will be spatially dispersed and that at least some of them will fall into sectors where (locally, nationally or UK-wide) there are skills shortages, we conclude that the employment generated in work to reopen the line should not be counted as a significant benefit. 5.4.14 The increase in operational employment is likely to be very limited, though the available information (from the TEE work) does not allow us to quote precise numbers (employment effects are included within wider figures for operating costs). The additional railway operating employment is likely to be concentrated in depots in Edinburgh and Glasgow, and the additional workers required could be drawn from a wide area. Some additional staff may be employed in the new/reopened stations, and these are more likely to be locally recruited, but the numbers will be minimal (enough to provide one member of staff at each station throughout the operating day, so essentially eight persons plus cover). In addition the TEE work notes that there will be some transfer of bus passengers to rail, and this could result in some (very slight) loss of jobs in the bus industry. These losses would be more likely to be local to the Airdrie-Bathgate corridor, given the more localised nature of bus operations. The potential introduction of new feeder bus services would counteract any loss of jobs. 5.4.15 We have not attempted to quantify the impacts of the scheme on the Scottish economy in total. The fact that our modelling approach does not assume that transport schemes necessarily have positive impacts on the economy in total is a point which has attracted favourable comment from the Executive in previous projects. In the present case, it would be difficult to argue that the scheme would definitely have significant positive consequences, but the nature of the scheme, providing better public transport access between areas with different economic conditions, and helping to link Edinburgh and Glasgow together in ways that tend to improve the transport efficiency of central Scotland as a whole, will undoubtedly be a beneficial rather than an adverse effect.

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5.4.16 As noted earlier, these points represent the appraisal from the Scotland-wide perspective. The authorities involved may appropriately (in our opinion) consider the impacts on a more local basis. In this case both West Lothian and North Lanarkshire may regard the scheme as having significant benefits. 5.4.17 There is one further issue which, within STAG, falls on the boundary between EALI and Integration and which deserves to be mentioned, although is not represented in the modelling. This is the potential impact of the re-opening on access to training and educational opportunities, especially for younger persons and for those who do not have the regular use of a car. Easier access for Bathgate residents to colleges in North Lanarkshire and Glasgow, and for Airdrie/Coatbridge residents to colleges in West Lothian and Edinburgh, will help to improve the range of training and educational opportunities on offer, in particular to those who are going into further rather than higher education and who are dependent upon opportunities within commuting range of their homes. As discussed elsewhere in relation to access to jobs, feeder bus services from rail stations to key destinations may be needed to maximise this effect. There are also a number of health care facilities in the Corridor which would benefit from improved accessibility. 5.4.18 Strictly speaking an increased take-up of training only constitutes a benefit under the STAG EALI category if it allows the economy to expand by reducing a labour supply constraint. It seems unrealistic with present data and methods to try to identify precisely what these constraints might be in future, or to what degree the Airdrie-Bathgate re-opening might help to relieve them. In the context of the wider debate about the need for a better-trained workforce, in manual/technical as well as professional occupations, it seems that the possibility of better access to training opportunities - and the resulting improvements in prospects for local school leavers and others - should be counted as a benefit. 5.5 Conclusions 5.5.1 The modelling results reported in the above paragraphs indicate that the re-opening scheme will have positive impacts on the numbers of residents and numbers of jobs in the corridor it serves. There will be some redistribution of activity within the West Lothian and North Lanarkshire areas, but both districts show net gains in both residents and jobs. 5.5.2 The impacts are modest in percentage terms, though the absolute figures involved – nearly 900 additional jobs and 1900 additional residents in West Lothian, 400 additional jobs and 1000 additional residents in North Lanarkshire - are significant. The scale of the impacts is a result of the limited role which public transport plays in accessibility, balanced against the fact that this particular scheme is potentially important for access to central Glasgow and central Edinburgh where public transport is more important than average.

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5.5.3 The appraisal of the impacts indicates that the scheme will assist the achievement of Scottish policies as set out in the Assisted Areas map. At a more local level it will on balance also give some support to the policies set out in the two relevant Structure Plans and in the Objective 2 designation for parts of West Lothian, and in relation to CRF deprived areas. these points is particularly important in that the The last of of redistribution

employment and of working residents is likely to have positive impacts on the concentration of deprived wards in the Glasgow-Airdrie part of the corridor. 5.5.4 Finally, the impacts of the line in terms of employment and population are summarised in Table 5.3 below. Table 5.3 Summary of forecast impacts of line Population Absolute impact 2021 Bathgate corridor Livingston corridor Linlithgow corridor West Lothian total Cumbernauld corridor Airdrie corridor Motherwell corridor North Lanarkshire total 1820 -580 960 2.3% -0.4% 0.3% 620 -100 440 2.2% -0.2% 0.4% -280 -0.3% -80 -0.3 % 1950 80 -260 1770 2.3% 0.1% -0.8% 0.8% % impact 2021 Employment absolute impact 2021 870 120 -50 940 3.0% 0.3% -0.7% 1.2% % impact 2021

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Land Use – Transport Model Results

Figure 5.2 TELMoS Model sub-regions

Land Use – Transport Model Results

Figure 5.3 Absolute changes in employment, 2021

Land Use – Transport Model Results

Figure 5.4 Absolute changes in population, 2021

Land Use – Transport Model Results

Figure 5.5 Percentage changes in employment, 2021

Land Use – Transport Model Results

Figure 5.6 Percentage changes in population, 2021

Land Use – Transport Model Results

Figure 5.7 Corridor Level Impacts
Bathgate Corridor Livingston Corridor Linlithgow Corridor 4 3.5 3 2.5 % change 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 Bathgate Corridor Livingston Corridor Linlithgow Corridor

Abs change in EMPLOYMENT
1200 1000 800 Jobs 600 400 200 0 -200

% change in EMPLOYMENT

Year Cumbernauld Corridor Airdrie Corridor Motherwell Corridor 2.5 2 1.5 % change 1 0.5 0 -0.5 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Year Cumbernauld Corridor Airdrie Corridor Motherwell Corridor

Abs change in EMPLOYMENT
700 600 500 400 Jobs 300 200 100 0 -100 -200

% change in EMPLOYMENT

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018 2018 2018

Year Bathgate Corridor Livingston Corridor Linlithgow Corridor 2.5 2 1.5 1500 1000 500 0 -500 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 % change People 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Year Bathgate Corridor Livingston Corridor Linlithgow Corridor

Abs change in POPULATION
2500 2000

% change in POPULATION

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Year Cumbernauld Corridor Airdrie Corridor Motherwell Corridor 3 2.5 2 % change 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Year Cumbernauld Corridor Airdrie Corridor Motherwell Corridor

Abs change in POPULATION
2500 2000 1500 People 1000 500 0 -500 -1000

% change in POPULATION

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Year

Year

2019

2019

2019

Land Use – Transport Model Results

Figure 5.8 Corridor definitions

Land Use – Transport Model Results

Figure 5.9 District level impacts

Abs change in EMPLOYMENT
1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

West Lothian North Lanarkshire 1.6 1.4 1.2 % change 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 2018 2019 2020 2021

% change in EMPLOYMENT

West Lothian North Lanarkshire

Jobs

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020 2020

Year

Year

Abs change in POPULATION
2000 1800 1600 1400

West Lothian North Lanarkshire 0.9 0.8 0.7 % change 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0

% change in POPULATION

West Lothian North Lanarkshire

People

1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Year

Year

2021

2021

Land Use – Transport Model Results

Figure 5.10 Increase in resident workers and CRF areas – Corridor area

Land Use – Transport Model Results

Figure 5.11 Increase in resident workers and CRF areas – Airdrie area

Land Use – Transport Model Results

Figure 5.12 Increase in resident workers and CRF areas – Bathgate area

6 Development Context
6.1 Introduction 6.1.1 This section sets out a commentary on the planning and development impacts resulting from the opening of the Airdrie-Bathgate railway. elsewhere in this report. The appraisal addresses the following issues: • an overall commentary on the development impacts arising from the proposed railway opening – this refers to both the TELMoS model results and comments from developers/agents interviewed as part of the study; • identification, in general terms, of the land use planning implications for the development impacts identified; and • assessment of the relationship between the development impacts, the re-opening of the railway itself and national/strategic development planning policy. 6.2 Development Impacts Overview 6.2.1 The re-opening of the railway line between Airdrie and Bathgate, with links beyond to both the east and west coasts, will have direct impacts on development within the railway corridor which, in turn, will have consequential implications for economic growth within the railway corridor. A number of mechanisms will affect development markets with the re-opening of the railway. 6.2.2 The railway will result in improved accessibility for residents living close to the proposed new railway stations and those living near to existing stations that will have improved accessibility to the east or west. This will result in two associated market responses: • existing properties (both residential and commercial) will be more desirable to a wider market; and • demand will be stimulated for new properties and premises within the corridor. 6.2.3 Real transport costs of locating within the corridor will be reduced as a result of improved accessibility. This will release greater resources for business investment, or in the case of domestic occupiers, for either expenditure on other goods and services or saving. In due course these enhanced values will be translated, to a greater or lesser extent, into development (rents and yields) and land values. This appraisal is based on the core development test case that is described

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6.2.4 Existing businesses and sites will have an increased profile. This reflects not only direct improvements to visibility for locations visible from the new route but also an improved market awareness of the development locations. 6.2.5 These effects have been reflected in the development and running of the TELMoS model. However it should be recognised that the development industry does not operate in a smooth manner but is dependent upon a range of decisions/actions that do not necessarily reflect rational decisionmaking processes. A key factor is the release of land for development and whether land/property owners and developers have reasonable expectations of the market values. This can have diverse effects – there could be proposals for large scale releases of land for development based on optimistic uplifts in values or, alternatively, land could be withheld from the market as a result of a range of non-commercial considerations. 6.2.6 The viability of new development also reflects the potential for a

development project to achieve positive residual values.

Residual values Residual

are, in essence, the difference between the development value and development costs (taking into account the developer’s profit). values need to be high enough for property owners to consider disposal worthwhile. There are two key points arising from this: first that an overall uplift in land values may have an uneven impact on development viability; and second that it is only possible to identify the precise impacts on development arising from the proposed railway by assessing impact on a detailed site by site basis. in the TELMoS model. 6.3 Developer Comments 6.3.1 In the context of recent development pressures in both the Edinburgh and Glasgow areas, it is evident that the area between Bathgate and Airdrie has generated limited development interest – for either commercial or residential purposes. That is not to say there has been no development (for example recent residential development at Plains has demonstrated that residential schemes are viable) but this has been modest compared to other parts of Lanarkshire and the remainder of West Lothian in particular. 6.3.2 Key comments from the development industry about existing development in the area and the effect of a new railway line include the following: • the lack of development investment in the area reflects the loss of the historical industrial base of the area and, due to the lack of access, it has become a ‘forgotten’ area in development terms. This also reflects a lack or shortage of development sites in other, more accessible areas; However the broad scale of impacts arising, including the distribution of impacts is indicated clearly, at a strategic level,

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•

the greatest potential for the area is for residential development providing commuter based housing for access to employment areas in both the east and west;

•

there are some indications of development industry interest for housing in selected parts of the area – this reflects a response to higher property prices in both Glasgow and Edinburgh encouraging developers and purchasers to consider locations further out from the two cities;

•

a key for successful development in the area is the improvement of accessibility. The proposed railway line would provide a significant improvement and enhance the prospects for new investment; and

•

for commercial development there is no significant demand with investment primarily public sector led. The general consensus is that the railway will not change this position.

6.3.3 These comments strongly endorse the findings of the TELMoS model results. 6.4 TELMoS Modelling Results 6.4.1 The model results are described in detail in Chapter 5. At this point it is

useful to consider the broad scale of development that is forecast to be generated within the area, provided that provision is made for growth within the respective development plans. 6.4.2 Although the model identifies changes in a large number of zones it is evident that, within the context of the railway corridor, the areas that experience greatest changes, in both employment and population terms are (from east to west): • • • • • • • South Gyle, Edinburgh; North Livingston/Broxburn; Bathgate; Armadale; Plains/Caldercruix; Airdrie/Coatbridge; and dispersed areas in Glasgow.

6.4.3 Although employment growth is identified it is clear that the driver of growth is housing-led attracted by the improved accessibility to either or both the east and west. Employment growth is subsidiary and is, in essence, in That is it relates to service related response to growth in population.

employment required to serve increasing populations (such as retail employment, public services and private services). Each of the communities listed above is now considered below.

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North Livingston/Broxburn 6.4.4 This area is identified to benefit from a significant net increase in population (over 1200 up to 2021) which is 1.8% higher than the Reference Case and for employment a net increase of 774 jobs (2.5% increase). Bathgate 6.4.5 This area experiences a net increase in population of 894, and an increase in employment of 355 – increases of 2.9% and 2.7% respectively when compared to the Reference Case. Armadale and Blackridge 6.4.6 The model identifies only modest growth for these two settlements as a result of the opening of the railway line. In the case of Armadale, population increases compared to the Reference Case for 2021 are +83 (+0.5%) and employment increases are less than 10 (0.4%). Impacts on Blackridge are lower, with a minimal increase in terms of population and employment. In both cases the model has assumed that the railway will provide limited benefits compared to the existing access to the motorway and that significant land releases have been proposed by the planning authority in response to the Structure Plan. The model calculates that these releases would be developed with or without the re-opening of the railway line. Plains/Caldercruix 6.4.7 Given the limited size of these settlements both are included within a single zone in the model together with surrounding rural areas. Reference Case, a net increase of 1.8%. Reference Case. Airdrie/Coatbridge 6.4.8 Significant population and employment increases are identified. In the case of population this is forecast to grow by +1356 by 2021 compared to the Reference Case (+2%) and employment by +497 (2.1%). vicinity of existing railway stations. These impacts are spread across the urban area with greatest development in areas in the The principal impact will be a net population increase of 200 compared to the Employment change would be minimal – a net increase of 13 employees, that is 1.4%, compared to the

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Commentary on Results 6.4.9 Both the TELMoS model and comments from the development industry point to the same general impacts arising from the proposed railway. The area between Airdrie and Bathgate has seen limited development to date and the new line will encourage residential led growth. This growth will be modest amounting to a maximum of 3% compared to the Reference Case between 2001 and 2021 with the greatest benefits occurring at the eastern and western ends (and beyond) of the rail line. This reflects improvements for access to employment in the Glasgow and Edinburgh areas for residents in these areas. The proposed rail line will, therefore, enhance access currently provided by the M8. 6.4.10 Employment growth will also be modest and is anticipated to follow population growth with local service employment directed to areas of population growth. Significant new employment serving wider markets is anticipated to be limited but, in the case of Livingston and Edinburgh Park, where labour markets are comparatively tight at present, the rail line will assist in supporting access to labour markets in the west of Scotland. To an extent this will also be true of businesses in Airdrie/Coatbridge and East Glasgow for access to labour markets in the east of the central belt. 6.4.11 The railway is not, in itself, expected to create an easily identifiable uplift in property values. with some Impacts will be spread over a significant period of time anticipated even now in anticipation of access Furthermore the area, which currently has uplift

improvements in the future.

comparatively low land values for development, is not expected to see an uplift to the West Lothian or North Lanarkshire averages but the differential is expected to be reduced over the next decade or so. 6.5 Land Use Planning Implications 6.5.1 The scale of development described above will have some implications for land use allocations and proposals within the Airdrie-Bathgate corridor. These are considered in terms of the principal settlements. North Livingston/Broxburn/Bathgate 6.5.2 The net additional population growth identified is significant (+1600 to 2021) this is equivalent to about 9% of the model’s forecast growth in population for the area as a whole. Furthermore the housing land requirement to accommodate this is equivalent to approximately 575 households and represents an increase of housing provision of 28 dwellings per annum over this period.

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6.5.3 Compared to the overall scale of housing provision in West Lothian this is a modest uplift in housing land requirements. For example the Structure Plan identifies existing West Lothian housing sources to be equivalent to 753 units per annum with strategic releases required for up to a further 467 units, that is a total of 1220 per annum. In this context the additional impact of the railway would be minimal. However the location of demand would be in locations close to the proposed railway stations and in this regard some consideration could be given to a modest uplift in housing allocations in these areas. It should be noted that much of this uplift could be achieved by developing at slightly higher densities than have been assumed in the draft Local Plan. 6.5.4 A similar approach applies to planning for the uplift in employment. In the first instance it should be noted that much of this employment will be in the local service sector where employment will be located in local offices in existing town centres, in local shops or public sector agencies and only a limited proportion would require business/industrial land. For this local service employment, locations close to the railway are not significant but employment will be directed to existing town centres as well as existing industrial and employment premises and sites. It also has to be noted that existing employment land supply in West Lothian, according to the Structure Plan report of survey, is substantial (over 700 hectares in all categories) and accounts for almost 70% of employment land in the Lothians. Reflecting the type of employment that would be created there, it is therefore considered that the new railway is not expected to have significant implications for the allocation of new employment land. 6.5.5 Requirements for additional land uses (education, recreation etc) depend upon the precise location of new development and it is not possible to assess the implications in this strategic appraisal. 6.5.6 In relation to Park and Ride facilities, more detailed analysis is required to be undertaken before clear recommendations can be made. Armadale/Blackridge 6.5.7 In the context of current proposed land releases in the Finalised Local Plan and the scale of impacts arising from the proposed railway it is considered that no additional provision is required for either housing or employment land provision. Plains/Caldercruix 6.5.8 At this stage the emerging Local Plan is at an early stage of preparation. The model forecasts that the railway will result in a net additional 200 population but minimal employment. This population is equivalent to approximately 90 dwellings ie some 2.5 to 4 hectares of additional housing land. Consideration can be given to the possible identification of land for this

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housing development in the Plains/Caldercruix area. uses.

This scale of housing

may, depending upon local circumstances, have implications for other land Requirements for car parking at the railway station will require detailed assessment. A development of 273 houses is under construction at Plains. A development of 109 houses is under construction at the site of the former Paper Mill at Caldercruix. Airdrie/Coatbridge 6.5.9 The scale of development identified in Airdrie/Coatbridge is significant at over 1300 (population) by 2021 compared to the Reference Case. This is equivalent to about 600 dwellings in all tenures. The specific housing land requirements for the Airdrie-Coatbridge area are to be assessed as part of the Local Plan preparation process but some information on the demand and supply for owner occupied housing is provided in the Glasgow and Clyde Valley Structure Plan. Table 12 of the Structure Plan shows that, for the period to 2011 at least, there is a surplus for both local and mobile requirements for the eastern conurbation of which Airdrie/Coatbridge is part. 6.5.10 However in the context of the new railway line consideration should be given to the effectiveness of existing sites to come forward which are within easy reach of the existing railway stations to derive maximum benefit from the projected increases in housing demand. 6.5.11 As with the Livingston area, the requirements for employment land for the net additional 497 jobs are unlikely to need significant additional new employment allocations. Most employment will be located in the existing town centres or existing employment locations within the urban area. 6.6 Relationship to Planning Policy 6.6.1 This section considers briefly the relationship between the proposed Airdrie-Bathgate railway link and national and strategic planning policy. Given the strategic nature of the appraisal that has been undertaken it is considered inappropriate to assess this either in detail or to consider Local Plan policies and allocations. brief, the following: • • • National Planning Framework for Scotland; Scottish Planning Policy/National Planning Policy Guidance; and Structure Plan provisions. The appraisal therefore addresses, in

National Planning Framework 6.6.2 Aspects relevant to the proposed railway are policies for transport and for economic development.

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6.6.3 Sustainable

development

underpins

much

of

the

National

Planning

Framework. This is emphasised in paragraph 54 of the Framework. Para 98 sets out the key elements of the spatial strategy for development which includes: • • supporting the development of Scotland’s cities; spreading the benefits of economic activity through promotion of environmental quality and connectivity; • enabling the most disadvantaged communities to benefit from growth; • • promotion of economic diversification; and promotion of sustainable patterns of transport and land use.

6.6.4 In terms of transport paragraphs 111-118 emphasise the importance of promoting a modern, flexible and well-integrated transport system. Airdrie to Bathgate railway line. provide alternatives to private car use. 6.6.5 In relation to development in the west of Scotland paragraph 154 states that the east side of Glasgow together with adjoining parts of Lanarkshire has some of the country’s poorest communities. emphasises the importance of investment In this area the Framework in transport infrastructure In paragraph 116 there is an express commitment to the re-opening of the At paragraph 133 the Framework emphasises the importance of high quality public transport infrastructure to

providing opportunities for promoting economic activity. 6.6.6 In relation to the above it is clear that the proposed re-opening of the Airdrie-Bathgate route both strongly supports and is supported by the national planning framework – this is reflected most clearly in the fact that the framework expressly identifies the proposed scheme as one which is supported by the Scottish Executive. Scottish Planning Policy/National Planning Policy Guidance 6.6.7 It is not appropriate to review all relevant SPPs/NPPGs in relation to the above scheme. The theme of sustainable development is emphasised in SPP1 and NPPG17 focuses on policies in relation to transport. 6.6.8 At paragraph 6 of SPP1 it is emphasised that sustainable development is central to the Executive’s policy agenda. At paragraph 7 it is explained that this includes ‘supporting better access by foot, cycle and public transport, as well as by car’.

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6.6.9 A second key theme set out in SPP1 is the support of social justice. Paragraph 12 states: “Strong, vibrant and healthy communities, in rural and urban areas, are an essential part of the vision for a socially just Scotland” and “giving a high priority to accessibility when considering locations for jobs, houses, shops, leisure and other community facilities; and developing closer links with transport policy at strategic and local level”. It is clear that re-opening the proposed Airdrie-Bathgate railway will strongly support these objectives. 6.6.10 The third key theme relevant to the current proposal is the promotion of integrated transport. To this end, paragraph 20 notes that the Executive is committed to a more sustainable, effective and integrated transport system. It states: ‘It is essential for the economy of Scotland that the labour force has easy access to places of employment and that raw materials, components and finished products can be transported efficiently’. 6.6.11 NPPG17 provides more details on the specific transport aims and objectives of Government policy consistent with the outline of policy provided in SPP1. Structure Plan Policy Glasgow and Clyde Valley Structure Plan (GCVSP) 6.6.12 The GCVSP sets out a series of key aims for the structure plan. Of the four aims identified three are directly supported by the re-opening of the Airdrie-Bathgate railway:

•

1. To increase economic competitiveness –

in this case by

significantly improving labour market accessibility and integration between the Glasgow conurbation and the Edinburgh area. • 2. To promote greater social inclusion and integration – again through improved accessibility and enhanced opportunities for employment and housing. • 4. To integrate land uses and transportation – the proposal would improve access to public transport and improving linkages between areas of unemployment and employment opportunities. 6.6.13 As described above the proposal will support employment and development in the Airdrie-Coatbridge areas – this supports the following proposals/initiatives in the GCVSP: • the urban renewal area of South Coatbridge (Strategic Policy 1(b)) as well as wider links to Easterhouse and locations further west; • Rural Investment area – Central Scotland Plateau (includes

Caldercruix) – Strategic Policy 1(d);

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•

improving Priority Corridors for Management

- external links

North Lanarkshire to Lothians (Strategic Policy 3 Schedule 3(b)(iv); • improving economic competitiveness – Strategic Policy 5 core economic development areas Coatbridge/Airdrie (Schedule 5c); and • providing and safeguarding local employment opportunities –

Coatbridge/Airdrie (Strategic Policy 6 Schedule 6a).

6.6.14 Glasgow and Clyde Valley 2005 Consultative Draft Structure Plan was published in May 2005. This re-emphasises the policy mechanisms put in place by GCVJSP 2000. However, it also advocates a change to a strategic policy of sustained growth across the Structure Plan area, with its population increasing from 2013. 6.6.15 North Lanarkshire Local Plan is being prepared and is targeted for publication as a Consultative Draft in 2006. Caldercruix-Plains is an area currently of great interest to private developers / land owners. Edinburgh and Lothians Structure Plan (ELSP) 6.6.16 The overarching aim of the ELSP is to provide for the full development needs of the Edinburgh and the Lothians area in accordance with the principle of sustainable development. Key elements of this include: • • • maintaining and supporting economic competitiveness; promoting a more inclusive society; and integrating land use and transport

6.6.17 As with the GCVSP the proposed re-opening of Airdrie-Bathgate railway will strongly support each of the above aims. 6.6.18 The relationship between development areas and transport is expressly considered (paragraphs 2.28-2.31). The result of this, and other considerations, is the identification of 15 core development areas, three of which are in West Lothian including Livingston and the Almond Valley, Winchburgh/East Broxburn/Uphall and Armadale. As described above all three of these are directly or indirectly served by the proposed new railway. At a local plan level, West Lothian has now confirmed key development areas in accordance with the requirements of the Structure Plan and incorporated these into the Finalised Local Plan for West Lothian. underpinning these allocations is public transport accessibility. A key factor

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6.6.19 The proposed railway therefore directly supports, or is supported by the following Structure Plan policies: • • HOU3 - Strategic Housing Allocations – in West Lothian; HOU4 – supporting the public transport provision for the strategic housing allocations; and • Transport policies and objectives.

Summary 6.6.20 The above review has considered the provision of Government Policy and Strategic Planning Policy in outline only. strategic policies by virtue of the following: • the promotion of a more sustainable form of transport compared to the private car which is the dominant form of transport in the area at the present time; • improvement of accessibility to employment opportunities for all sections of the community – supporting social inclusion; • improvement of access to labour markets and product markets for existing businesses throughout the central belt; • • provision of infrastructure that supports major land releases; and support to urban and rural regeneration. However it is evident that the proposed Airdrie-Bathgate railway will support a wide range of national and

6.7 Other Government Policies 6.7.1 The proposals are generally supportive of a range of national policies, including: • • • Framework for Economic Development; Smart Successful Scotland; Scottish Budget Report Emphasis on Closing the Opportunity Gap (which focuses on 15% CRF areas); • • Scottish Executive City Region Vision; and Scotland's transport future - The transport White Paper.

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7 Conclusions
7.1 Summary 7.1.1 This report has documented a comprehensive EALI analysis of the current Airdrie-Bathgate proposals, which has considered in detail: • • • • the socio-economic context of the affected areas; the characteristics and views of local businesses; the views of key stakeholders; the effects of the line on the distribution of population and employment in the area; • • the development impacts of the line; and the relationship with national and other planning policies.

7.2 Conclusions 7.2.1 The main points which can be concluded from the above are given below. Area Socio Economics • there are substantial areas within the corridor (particularly eastern Glasgow and North Lanarkshire) which are classified as deprived in SIMD terms, and with low levels of car ownership; • there are a high number of areas which have Community

Regeneration Funding status within the corridor area; • there is currently limited travel to work activity by public transport along the corridor; • current ‘official’ population projections suggest rises in population for West Lothian and population decline in North Lanarkshire; and • the corridor area has suffered a number of high profile industrial closures in recent years, but there have also been successes in attracting new businesses and developing indigenous businesses.

Characteristics and views of local businesses • businesses in the area are generally optimistic about the future and have been stable or expanding in recent years; • over half reported difficulties in recruiting suitable staff – identified as a constraint on growth;

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7

Conclusions

•

there is evidence of labour market exhaustion in some sectors (call / contact centres) and lack of skilled staff in other sectors (eg trades, plant, sales);

•

the sample of North Lanarkshire firms were more locally orientated in terms of their geographical operations (markets and suppliers) than those in West Lothian;

•

poor public transport, parking or congestion are identified as negative characteristics of their location by some firms;

•

‘car driver – single occupant’ is by some margin the most common method of travel to work;

• •

there is a reasonable awareness of the proposals; more than half of firms thought the line would be used by their business;

•

26 of the 37 firms thought they would benefit from improved access to labour, other smaller benefits foreseen; and

•

the proposed new line could play a role in addressing some of the concerns raised by businesses, mostly in the case of accessing suitable staff.

Views of other key stakeholders • very positive responses to the proposal from relevant Chambers of Commerce; • the line will assist in tackling labour market shortages in key sectors in Edinburgh; • the line would play an important role in major redevelopment projects in east Glasgow; • the proposals with well with other policies such as the

North Lanarkshire Town Centre Initiatives; and • no short-term role is seen for the line in terms of rail freight.

Effects of line on distribution of employment and population • the new line is forecast to increase population and employment in North Lanarkshire and West Lothian; • the Airdrie and Bathgate corridor areas see increases in population of around 2000 by the middle of the decade following the opening of the line;

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7

Conclusions

•

the Bathgate corridor is forecast to gain around 1000 jobs, while the Airdrie corridor can be expected to gain around 600 jobs; and

•

the EALI appraisal of these changes is positive in terms of Assisted Areas, CRF zones, European objective 2 areas, and the two relevant Structure Plans.

Development impacts • increased desirability for existing and new properties / premises in the area; • reduced transport costs for current residents / businesses releases resources for other uses, which will eventually translate into enhanced property values; • increased profile of area will lead to greater market awareness and improved prospects for development locations; • relatively small changes, such as would be brought about by the railway, can bring incremental effects in development terms; and • the TELMoS modelling reflects the broad scale of impacts arising, and these are supported by the developer comments. Relationship with national and other planning policies • the proposed railway line will support a wide range of national and strategic planning and other policies. Opportunities • a more visionary and proactive approach to development could lead to the corridor between the rail line and the M8 becoming a ‘bridge’ between the city regions of Glasgow and Edinburgh; • new housing, built around and focussed on rail travel to east and west, could offer an alternative style to the many developments growing up around other parts of the central belt; • the corridor could also be attractive to leisure activities, where access by a range of modes is important and large catchment areas within a moderate access time (60 minutes) is required. 7.2.2 The Study has demonstrated that the proposed line re-opening, with four new stations at Plains, Caldercruix, Blackridge and Armadale, would bring a range of strong benefits in STAG EALI terms. This will contribute significantly to the overall STAG appraisal of the line. The main benefits are:

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7

Conclusions

•

increased

population

and

employment

in

West Lothian

and

North Lanarkshire; • • • • benefits to local businesses through access to a wider pool of labour; benefits to CRF areas; benefits to Assisted Areas; improved inclusion; • • • improved labour market efficiency; support to local and national planning policies; support for Core Development Areas and major developments in East Glasgow, and • support to a range of other government policies. accessibility along the Corridor – supporting social

7.2.3 All the opportunities identified will need a strong public sector ‘steer’ to ensure they do not simply encourage car travel. It may be appropriate to consider a Masterplan for the corridor to accompany the construction of the rail line. Such a Masterplan would ensure that an overall ‘vision’ of the corridor area could be framed, leading all future planning and development policies in the area.

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Airdrie-Bathgate Line: Economic Activity and Location Impacts

Appendix A Study Brief

CONSULTANCY BRIEF Bathgate –Airdrie Rail Link Economic Activity and Location Impacts Study
Issued by West Lothian Council on behalf of: West Lothian Council Scottish Enterprise Edinburgh and Lothian Scottish Enterprise Lanarkshire North Lanarkshire Council Summary The partners (North Lanarkshire Council, Scottish Enterprise Edinburgh and Lothian, Scottish Enterprise Lanarkshire, and West Lothian Council wish to appoint experienced consultants to undertake an Economic Activity and Location Impacts study of the re opening of the Bathgate- Airdrie rail link. This work will form part of the STAG (Scottish Transport Appraisal Guidance) for the project. Background: During 2002-03 the Scottish Executive looked at public transport and road improvements for communities served by the A8 and the A80 in the Central Scotland Transport Corridor Study (CSTCS). The re-opening of Airdrie – Bathgate railway was the main public transport project identified in the CSTCS to reduce congestion on the M8/A8 and to improve transport links between West Lothian and North Lanarkshire with Glasgow and Edinburgh. A Steering Group made up of West Lothian Council, North Lanarkshire Council, Strathclyde Passenger Transport and the Scottish Executive let this outline design study in October 2003 to the Babtie Group. This study has been the first step towards delivering a rail service along a re-opened Airdrie – Bathgate route. The study was completed in June 2004. What has the study achieved? The study has looked into the operational and engineering feasibility of re-opening the railway in much greater detail than before. It gives a clear understanding of what it will take and what it will cost to reopen the railway. The study has shown that the theoretical train service modelled in the CSTCS can actually be delivered on the ground. It has shown that 4 trains an hour can run from the West of Glasgow through Glasgow Queen Street low level, Airdrie, Bathgate and Edinburgh Park to Waverley Station. The study looked at the running time for services and the best times that could be achieved were 27 minutes for Airdrie – Edinburgh Park; 45 minutes for Livingston – Glasgow Queen Street; and 63 minutes for Edinburgh Waverley – Glasgow Queen Street. The engineering work done as part of the study has given a much better understanding of how the railway could be built and operated as well as the challenges that still need to be faced. Details of the Bathgate Airdrie rail link can be found on the following web site http://e.becomeinteractive.co.uk/airdriebathgate/

Economic Activity and Location Impacts As part of the ongoing STAG analysis the Partners wish to appoint consultants to undertake a full Economic Activity and Locational Impact (EALI) study for the Bathgate-Airdrie line. The Scottish Transport Appraisal Guidance sets out in detail what an EALI assessment will require. This piece of consultancy will require to conform to the guidance (Chapter 8) available at www.scotland.gov.uk/stag and in their proposals consultants will require to outline a series of deliverables to conform with the guidance. To summarise it will include the following: An assessment of the impacts, in terms of employment and income, of the BathgateAirdrie project The study will identify the net impact at the Scottish level It will also include the gross components, which will distinguish impacts (both negative and positive) on particular areas and/or particular groups on society. The consultants should define an appropriate spatial area within which local impact should be undertaken, and identify key sites/development/regeneration opportunities which may be facilitated or enhanced as a result from re-opening of the line. The Partners are committed to maximising the economic and social benefit of the proposed re opening of the Bathgate-Airdrie rail link not just as a mechanism to link residents with the labour markets of Edinburgh and Glasgow but as a key part of the economic regeneration of the West of West Lothian and the East of North Lanarkshire as highlighted in the local economic development strategies for the respective areas. Consultants will be afforded access to socio/ economic and business information held by the Partners.

Management Alistair Shaw, Economic Development Manager of West Lothian Council, through a Project Management Team, including the sponsoring partners and appropriate representatives. The Project would operate to PRINCE 2. Timescale The EALI would require to be complete by 28th February 2005 at the latest to comply with the STAG project management timetable. Regular liaison with the project group and informal interim reports throughout the lifetime of the project are expected. Fees Consultants are asked to provide detailed fee costings, including a description of all expenses for undertaking this study, with VAT clearly defined. This element should detail the number of days to be committed to the project by each member of the study team and their associated daily rates. In addition, all fieldwork costs, materials, travelling and subsistence expenses and any other costs or overheads must also be specified, detailing the total net fee alongside VAT The budget for the proposal is expected to be £35-£40K

Submission The proposal should contain: Details of the consultancy company including CVs of key staff, including staff working on this project Understanding of the brief and approach to be taken Methodology to be used Relevant experience Project timescale Costs, including day rates for all team members, expenses and VAT Tender Evaluation The tender proposal will be evaluated on the following criteria: overall value for money; (85% content 15% cost) previous relevant experience/expertise; full CVs of the key personnel comprising the study team; consultants’ understanding of the project requirements; a critical work plan detailing the study programme and key milestones; proposed approach and methodology; commitment to the specified timescales; and clear specification of input expected from the stakeholders. Consultants wishing to tender should submit four copies of their proposal, including an electronic copy in Microsoft Word format on CD-Rom), by 2nd November 2004 to: Alistair Shaw Economic Development Manager West Lothian Council The Business Centre Enterprise House Almondvale Boulevard Livingston EH54 6QP Tel 01506 777917 alistair.shaw@westlothian.gov.uk

Appendix B Assisted Area Status Map