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									    Commodities Daily Report
    Friday | October 7, 2011

 Agricultural Commodities

 News & Market Highlights

 Guar Complex



 Oilseed Complex

 Spices Complex

Research Team
Badruddin - AVP Research                                                            Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst                                                
(022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6129                                                          (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6131

Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst                                              Anuj Choudhary - Research Associate                                          
(022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130                                                          (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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  Commodities Daily Report
   Friday | October 7, 2011

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Wheat MSP to come up in CCEA in next 10-15 days: Pawar                       Market Highlights (% change)                           as on October 5, 2011
                                                                                                               Last     Prev. day    WoW       MoM          YoY
The government is likely to decide on raising the support price of rabi      Sensex                         15792        -0.457     -3.974     -5.51    -23.13
crops, including wheat, in the next 10-15 days, Agriculture Minister         Nifty                           4751        -0.437     -3.935      -5.3     #N/A
Sharad Pawar said on Wednesday. The minimum support price (MSP) of           INR/$                           49.34       -0.121      0.509    7.291      11.63
wheat, which is grown only in the rabi season, stands at Rs. 1,170 per
                                                                             Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl         79.68        5.299     -1.884    #N/A      -4.265
quintal for the 2011-12 marketing year (April-March). The government         Comex Gold - $/oz
buys wheat from farmers at MSP. “The proposal on MSP will go to CCEA                                         1640         1.585     1.485      #N/A      21.83
in next 10-15 days. There is also thinking that we must do something for                                                                        Source: Reuters
bonus for paddy farmers. That proposal has also been mooted by the           Empowered committee on GST to meet on October 14
Agriculture Department to the CCEA,” Pawar said. Wheat production of
India, the world’s second largest producer, stood at record 85.93 million    The Empowered Committee of State Finance Ministers on Goods and
tonnes in the 2010-11 crop year (July-June). (Source: Business Standard)     Services Tax (GST), headed by Bihar Deputy Chief Minister Sushil Kumar
                                                                             Modi, will meet here on October 14 to discuss issues related to the roll
Board of Trade’s meeting on export                                           out of the ambitious indirect tax regime. “We will be discussing the GST
                                                                             and the Central Sales Tax compensation to states besides many other
The high-level Board of Trade (BoT), chaired by Commerce and Industry        issues pertaining to Value Added Tax,” Modi said. (Source: Business Standard)
Minister Anand Sharma, is expected to meet next week to review India’s
export performance in the wake of uncertain economic conditions in the       Commodity futures investor can claim 2 lakh if a broker defaults
Western markets. A meeting of the BoT is likely to be held on October
11. The BoT may discuss the impact of rupee fluctuation, rising interest     Each investor in the commodity futures market can now claim a
rates and uncertain economic conditions in Western markets on the            compensation of up to Rs. 2 lakh if a broker defaults in making payments
country’s exports. (Source: Business Standard)                               to him/her. This money will be paid out of a commodity futures
                                                                             exchange’s investor protection fund (IPF), which will be funded by the
Spices exports fall 23% in April-August                                      penalties levied and collected by an exchange from its brokers less
                                                                             administration costs, which has been capped at 10% of such penalties.
Spice exports fell 23% during the April-August period, as chilli demand      The corpus of IPF will also include one percent of transaction fees
from China declined drastically. Chilli is one of the major spices in the    collected by bourses from each member or Rs 25 lakh, whichever is
export basket. Overall exports stood at 195,500 tonnes, compared to          lower, in a financial year. These are the crux of norms spelt out by the
255,100 tn in the same period last year. In terms of value, spices exports   Forward Markets Commission (FMC), regulator of the commodity futures
surged 26% to Rs. 3,365.20 crore. In dollar terms, exports rose 29% to       market, for the creation of IPFs by the five national commodity
$751 million compared to $581 million last year. Chilli exports dipped 39    exchanges — Financial Technologies-promoted MCX, NSE-founded
per cent to 68,000 tn in the last five months, but in value they lost 3%.    NCDEX, Ahemedabad-based NMCE, Kotak-promoted Ace and Reliance
(Source: Business Standard)                                                  ADA-anchored ICEX. FMC has asked exchanges to set up trusts to
                                                                             administer the IPF, which, it said, must become operational by March 31,
Rubber imports to slip on weak rupee                                         2012. The trust will comprise of two eminent persons, an independent
                                                                             director on the exchange board, an FMC nominee on the board and the
India’s natural rubber imports are set to slump in the fiscal year through   bourse’ s MD & CEO. (Source: Economic Times)
March 2012, as a weakening rupee has made overseas purchases dearer
for tyre makers, worsening a demand slowdown on persistent worries           States oppose GST dispute authority
about a wobbly economy. India, which overtook the US as the world’s
second-largest natural rubber consumer last year, will likely import         The Union government’s plan to set up a dispute settlement authority
around 1,25,000 tonne of natural rubber in 2011-12, down nearly 30%          (DSA) with representation of states to resolve differences among various
from a year earlier, government and industry sources said on                 stakeholders in the proposed goods and services tax (GST) regime could
Wednesday. The imports dipped 11% to 76,116 tonne between April and          come to nought. Sources say most states have opposed the mechanism
August, compared with 85,058 tonne a year earlier, data by the state -       while submitting their views to the Parliamentary Standing Committee
run Rubber Board showed. (Source: Financial Express)                         vetting the GST constitutional amendment Bill. These states
                                                                             governments, irrespective of their political affiliations, feel that such an
Cane-pricing dispute delays sugar production                                 authority would erode their fiscal autonomy. (Source: Financial Express)

Sugarcane crushing in Maharashtra, India’s biggest producer, will be         Indonesia may raise palm oil sales to China, India
delayed by at least a week this year after mills and farmers failed to
agree on cane prices, a millers’ group said. Crushing may begin from next    Indonesia, the world’s biggest palm oil supplier, may increase sales to
week if an agreement on pricing is arrived this week, Ajit Chowgule,         China and India after export taxes were cut for refined products,
managing director of the Maharashtra State Co-operative Sugar Factories      weighing on global prices, said a Malaysian industry association. The
Federation Ltd. said. Farmers want cane prices to be increased by as         country “will find a much bigger market share especially in price-
much as 37.5 per cent to Rs. 3,300 a tonne this year, he said. Delay in      sensitive” nations like China, India and Pakistan, said Mohammad Jaaffar
sugar cane crushing in India, the world’s second-largest producer, may       Ahmad, chief executive officer of the Palm Oil Refiners Association of
help stem a 23 per cent decline in prices in New York this year on outlook   Malaysia. “There will be some buildup in CPO stocks, and once that
for a bigger global harvest and amid concerns that demand for                happens, it will definitely depress prices.” (Source: Business Standard)
commodities may decline due to the global economic slowdown. (Source:
Business Standard)

  Commodities Daily Report
  Friday | October 7, 2011

Agricultural Commodities
Guar Complex                                                                Market Highlights                                           as on October 5, 2011
                                                                                                                                            % change
Guar seed futures settled 1.50% down on Wednesday on expectation of                                  Unit         Last       Prev day    WoW        MoM         YoY
fresh arrivals in the coming days. Spot prices also tumbled as stockiests
                                                                             Guar Seed Spot-                          4256      -2.13     -7.39      -0.19     118.47
may release stocks at higher levels.
                                                                             NCDEX (Jodhpur)         Rs/qtl

Subdued overseas demand and expectations of fresh arrivals is                Guar Seed- NCDEX                         4262      -1.50     -7.79      -0.88     116.24
pressuring prices.                                                           Oct'11 Futures          Rs/qtl
                                                                             Guar Gum Spot-                      13290          -2.81     -9.11      -2.99     181.88
Global uncertainties have raised the concerns over exports of Guar gum       NCDEX (Jodhpur)         Rs/qtl
in the year 2011-12, which had crossed 4 lakh tonnes in the fiscal year      Guar Gum- NCDEX                     13269          -1.73     -8.43      -1.94     185.05
2010-11.                                                                     Oct'11 Futures          Rs/qtl
                                                                                                                                                    Source: Reuters
The area under Guar cultivation in Rajasthan this season stands at 2.9
million hectares, compared to 3 million hectares last season. In Haryana
the area under Guar has come down from 256,000 hectares registered
                                                                            Technical Chart - Guar Seed                        NCDEX October contract
last year to 215,000 hectares this year. (Source: Business Standard)

Production & Exports
According to the first advance estimates, Guar seed output in Rajasthan
is estimated at 11.36 lakh tonnes for 2011-12 season compared to 15.46
lakh tonnes in 2010-11. Production of Guar in Haryana and Gujarat is
expected to be 0.2 lakh tonnes and 0.065 lakh tonnes respectively in

According to Agriculture and Processed Food Products Export
Development Authority, Indian Guar gum exports for the period April-
March 2010-11 surged by 84% and stood at 4,03,007 tonnes as
compared to 2,18,473 tonnes during the last year.

In the FY 2011-12 export demand of Guar gum continued to remain                                                                                    Source: Telequote
higher with exports of 30,816 tonnes in the month of April 2011, up 51 %
as compared with 20,376 tonnes in 2010-11 season.
                                                                            Technical Outlook                                    valid for October 7, 2011
                                                                             Contract                    Unit                 Support             Resistance
Guar prices in the intraday may remain under pressure on expectations
                                                                             Guar Seed Nov Futures          Rs./qtl           3930-3975           4180-4215
of commencement of fresh arrivals in the domestic mandis. Further,
subdued export demand may pressurize prices.                                 Guar Gum Nov Futures         Rs./qtl             12750-12900         13580-13800

If global uncertainty continues, then the exports might get hampered in
the coming months thereby putting downside pressure on the prices.

Improvement in the area covered under Guar in Rajasthan and thereby
hopes of better production may further put downside pressurize on the
Guar prices.

 Commodities Daily Report
 Friday | October 7, 2011

Agricultural Commodities
Pulses                                                                      Market Highlights                                  as on October 5, 2011
Chana futures witnessed further selling by the market participants and                                                             % change
settled at lower freeze of 4% on Wednesday. Imposition of stock limits in                          Unit      Last   Prev day      WoW     MoM           YoY
Rajasthan and special margin of 10% on long positions in Futures is          Chana Spot - NCDEX              3214    -3.40        -10.97   -1.67       39.73
restricting prices from trading higher. Government’s contingency plan for    (Delhi)              Rs/qtl
additional production of pulses in Rabi 2011-12 to overcome the losses of    Chana- NCDEX                    3030     -3.99       -14.16      -8.76    33.72
Kharif Pulses also supported the bearish market sentiments.                  Oct'11 Futures       Rs/qtl
                                                                                                                                           Source: Reuters
In order to bring down prices and increase its availability ahead of the
sowing season, the Rajasthan government Wednesday set the stock limit
on Chana separately from other pulses. The total pulses stock limits has
been raised to 550 tn from current 500 tn for wholesalers. Chana will       Technical Chart - Chana                       NCDEX October contract
have separate stock limit of 250 tn and pulses other than Chana will have
a limit of 300 tn.

In the contingency plan, Government has targeted to achieve an
additional production of 2.78 million tonnes during the ensuing Rabi
season through area expansion and productivity enhancement.
Additional allocation of Rs. 80 crore has been made for this purpose
under NFSM- Pulses program.

Pulses Imports
As per the import data of Ministry of Commerce, during the first quarter
of the current fiscal, the pulses import went up by 92 percent to 7.19
lakh tonnes during April-June 2011 as compared to 3.74 lakh tonnes in
corresponding period last year.                                                                                                            Source: Telequote

Out of the six key pulses, imports of Tur (pigeon pea) and peas rose by
286 and 211 percent to 0.54 and 5.26 lakh tonnes in April-June 2011
from 0.14 and 1.69 lakh tonnes same period last year. While the import      Technical Outlook                          valid for October 7, 2011
of moong/urad and lentils are down by 35 % and 19 % to 0.88 and 0.38
lakh tones respectively as compared to the 1.36 and 0.47 lakh tones in       Contract                 Unit           Support           Resistance
corresponding period of pervious year.
                                                                             Chana Nov Futures        Rs./qtl        3130-3150         3225-3250

Sowing progress and Production
According to the first advance estimates, Kharif Pulses output for 2011-
12 season is down by 9.6% at 6.43 mt. Tur output estimates is up by
0.35% while moong & Urad is down by 21% & 16% respectively.

Kharif Pulses sowing is down by 9% as on 23rd September, 2011. 109.41
lakh ha has been covered against 120.3 lakh ha in the last year. Chana
production estimates stood at 8.25 million tonnes up 10.3% compared to
last year. Prospect for Rabi sowing is also higher due to better soil
moisture levels. Planning Commission has estimated that the demand for
pulses during 2011-12 is 19.11 million tonne.

Chana prices in the intraday are likely decline further as stockiest in
Rajasthan are expected to liquidate the stocks which they are holding
beyond 250 metric tonnes. Further, imposition of special margin on long
side may restrict building of fresh buying positions to some extent.

Prospects for Rabi Pulses like Chana and Peas are better owing to better
soil moisture levels, which may increase the overall output in 2011-12
season may put downside pressure on the prices in the long term.

 Commodities Daily Report
 Friday | October 7, 2011

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar                                                                          Market Highlights                                         as on October 5, 2011
Sugar futures traded in a narrow range on Wednesday due to dull trades                                                           % Change
at the domestic and settled 0.18% down. Sufficient supplies in the                                   Unit           Last    Prev. day WoW            MoM         YoY
domestic are restricting prices from trading higher.                          Sugar Spot- NCDEX
                                                                              (Kolkata)             Rs/qtl     3030          0.00          2.56      0.66        4.48
The government has issued export permits for 4.21 lakh tonnes of sugar,
                                                                              Sugar M- NCDEX
of the total five lakh tonnes of shipments that it allowed in August 2011.                                     2724          -0.18         -0.26    -1.05        #N/A
                                                                              Oct'11 Futures        Rs/qtl
Last week, the food ministry had given an extension of 15 days to apply
for export release order to those sugar mills who are sourcing the                                                                                     Source: Reuters
sweetener from other factories. The deadline had expired on October 3,
2011 and now the last date for submitting application is October 18,           International Prices                                       as on October 6, 2011
2011. (Source: Business Standard)
                                                                                                                                    % Change
                                                                                                    Unit       Last        Prev day    WoW          MoM           YoY
Cooperative Sugar body has urged for several proposals amidst higher
Sugar output estimates. They are as under;                                    Sugar No 5- Liffe-               641.7        -1.03         -4.89     -14.59       -8.03
--To create 2 mt of buffer stocks                                             Dec'11 Futures       $/tonne
--To allow exports up to 4 mt in 2011-12                                                                      547.56        -0.65         -8.23     -12.90       -10.24
                                                                              Sugar No 11-ICE
-- Reiterates demand to decontrol sugar sector                                Mar'11 Futures       $/tonne
Higher exports and buffer stock would stabilize the domestic market and                                                                               Source: Reuters
ensure that sugar factories get reasonable realisation. Prof. K.V. Thomas,
Minister for Consumer Affairs, has said that the Government will take
appropriate steps to maintain price stability so as to ensure that sugar
                                                                               Technical Chart - Sugar                                   NCDEX October contract
factories make fair realization

ICE Raw Sugar and Liffe White Sugar futures were down by 1.03% and
0.65%, on account of easing concerns over global sugar supplies and
fears over declining demand from top consumer China.

Domestic Sugar updates
India is expected to produce highest sugar output in last 4 years due to
higher area under cultivation amidst favorable weather. According to the
first advance estimates, Sugarcane production is estimated higher by
0.9% at 34.22 mt for the coming season 2011-12 starting October 1,
2011. Indian farmers have planted Sugar cane in 51 lakh hectare, higher
by 4% at 49 lakh hectares.

According to ISMA sugar production in UP and Maharashtra is projected                                                                                Source: Telequote
at 16 million tonnes in 2011-12. ISMA has projected sugar production at
26 million tonnes for 2011-12.
                                                                               Technical Outlook                                     valid for October 7, 2011
Global Sugar Updates
                                                                               Contract                      Unit              Support              Resistance
Brazil's main sugar industry group Unica showed production increasing in
the last two weeks of August. While sugar production since the season          Sugar Nov NCDEX Futures       Rs./qtl           2700-2710            2740-2750
began in April is still 11% below last year, Unica didn't downgrade its        Sugar Nov MCX Futures         Rs./qtl            2700-2710           2750-2755
production forecast again, leaving little momentum in the market. (15

China, the world's largest sugar consumer, has imported 1.6 million tons
of sugar in the first 11 months of 2011, with preliminary data for the full
year likely to be issued around October 10. According to Kingsman
consultancy, 2011-12 world sugar production is estimated at 173.244
mmt, down from 176.339 mmt estimated in May. Consumption is pegged
at 164.083 mmt in 2011/12 against 165.764 mmt forecast earlier.

Sugar prices in the intraday are likely to gain further on robust demand in
the physical markets. We expect prices to gain by Rs 50-60 per qtl in the
current week.
From long term perspective, prices are expected to take cues from the
Sugar output estimates in the domestic market, change in government
policies with respect to exports and International Sugar prices, which
would be influenced by the supplies from Brazil and India and demand
from China.

  Commodities Daily Report
   Friday | October 7, 2011

Agricultural Commodities                                                       Market Highlights                                                    as on October 5, 2011
                                                                                                                                    % Change
Soybean                                                                                                     Unit          Last      Prev day          WoW         MoM           YoY
NCDEX November Soybean futures traded lower on account of weak                Soybean Spot- NCDEX                         2063           -1.06        -4.97       -12.36        3.36
overseas market and higher production estimates of domestic soybean           (Indore)                  Rs/qtl
                                                                              Soybean- NCDEX Oct'11                       2058           -1.01        -4.90       -13.07        1.58
coupled with arrivals of fresh crop in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra
                                                                              Futures                   Rs/qtl
and Rajasthan. Soybean processors Association of India estimates
                                                                              Ref Soyaoil Spot-                        628.1             -0.26        -4.05       -4.12        29.27
116.50 lakh tonnes soybean output this year against 101.2 lakh tonnes
                                                                              NCDEX(Indore)             Rs/10 kgs
last year. Madhya Pradesh production estimates at 61.67 lakh tonnes                                                    604.2             0.70         -4.14       -7.28        23.17
                                                                              Ref Soyaoil- NCDEX
and 35.60 lakh tones for Maharashtra. Major mandis were remain                Oct'11 Futures            Rs/10 kgs
closed on Thursday due to Dushehra.                                                                                                                            Source: Reuters

USDA’s weekly export sales released on October 06, 2011, which                                                                                          as on October 4, 2011
revealed that the soybean weekly export sales came in at 701,800              International Prices          Unit             Last       Prev day       WoW         MoM           YoY
metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 40,000 for the next          Soybean- CBOT-
                                                                              Nov'11 Futures          USc/ Bushel          1163           0.28         -4.92       -18.99        9.23
marketing year for a total of 741,800 which was near the high end of
trade expectations. Cumulative soybean sales stand at 44.1% of the            Soybean Oil - CBOT-
USDA forecast for 2011/2012 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year          Oct'11 Futures          USc/lbs              49.15          0.74         -4.66       -14.88       12.24
average of 41.9%. Sales of 441,000 metric tonnes are needed each
week to reach the USDA forecast. Net meal sales came in showing                                                                                               Source: Reuters

cancellations of 5,000 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and        Crude Palm Oil                                                       as on October 6, 2011
285,500 for the next marketing year for a total of 280,500 which was                                                                 % Change
well above trade expectations. Sales of 116,000 metric tonnes are
                                                                                                       Unit               Last       day      WoW               MoM            YoY
needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Net oil sales came in                                                        1158        -0.52   -1.80             -17.95         0.46
                                                                              CPO-Bursa Malaysia -
showing cancellations of 100 metric tonnes for the current marketing          Oct'11 Contract          MYR/Tonne
year and 200 for the next marketing year for a total of 100 which was         CPO-MCX-Oct'11                              48.96          0.08        -1.98       -15.85         6.48
well below trade expectations. Sales of 15,000 metric tonnes are              Futures                  Rs/10 kg
                                                                                                                                                               Source: Reuters
needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.
                                                                               RM Seed                                                             as on October 5, 2011
In their first production estimate of the year, Brazil officials pegged the                                                      Prev
                                                                                                       Unit        Last          day         WoW              MoM              YoY
2011/12 soybean crop at 12.18 to 72.29 million tonnes as compared
                                                                              RM Seed Spot-           Rs/qtl       2818          -0.79       -3.55            -2.84            7.28
with last year’s record high 75.3 million tonnes.
                                                                              NCDEX(Jaipur)           kgs
                                                                              RM Seed- NCDEX          Rs/qtl       2703          -0.41       -6.41            -6.34            0.51
Mustard Seed                                                                  Oct'11 Futures          kgs
NCDEX October RM Seed futures traded lower on account of weak                                                                                                Source: Reuters
overseas market. Better carry over stock of RM seed and arrivals of
fresh crop of kharif oilseeds provided support to the bears. Weakness
in vegetable oil and other oilseeds in the domestic market also added          Technical Chart –Soy Bean                                     NCDEX October contract
bearish market sentiments.

Refine Soy Oil
NCDEX October Refined Soy oil futures traded lower on account of
weak overseas market. Better carry over stock of RM seed and arrivals
of fresh crop of kharif oilseeds provided support to the bears. Lower
demand of crude palm oil coupled with higher production and stocks of
Palm oil as weak global market sentiments are in favour of bears.

Malaysian Palm Oil Exports
As per SGS (a cargo surveyor), Malaysia’s palm oil exports in the month
of September was 1.51 million tonnes, fell 7.1% as compared to                                                                                                   Source: Telequote
previous month.                                                                Technical Outlook                                                 valid for October 7, 2011

                                                                                Contract                           Unit                   Support                Resistance
Oilseed complex are expected to trade lower due to higher production            Soy Oil Nov NCDEX Futures          Rs./qtl                572-575                583-585
estimates of kharif oilseeds coupled with fresh arrivals of soybean in          Soybean NCDEX Nov Futures          Rs./qtl                2040-2055              2110-2125
major mandis. Weakness in overseas market as lower global demand                RM Seed NCDEX Nov Futures          Rs./qtl                2730-2745              2800- 2825
also added bearish market sentiments. However, price may recover
                                                                                CPO MCX Nov Futures                Rs./qtl                455-457                464-466
from low on account of short covering and value buying at lower levels.

  Commodities Daily Report
   Friday | October 7, 2011

Agricultural Commodities                                                        Market Highlights                               as on October 5, 2011
                                                                                                                 % Change
                                                                                                Unit      Last   Prev day     WoW         MoM        YoY
Black Pepper                                                                    Pepper Spot-             35021     0.75       0.15        8.87      84.97
Spot black pepper prices settled 0.75% higher on expectation of demand          NCDEX (Kochi)   Rs/qtl
from the domestic and overseas buyers on Wednesday while Futures                Pepper-
witnessed profit booking and settled 0.43% down on Wednesday.                   NCDEX Oct'11             35850     -0.43       -0.19      8.45      90.55
                                                                                Futures         Rs/qtl
Supply squeeze in the domestic and global markets are providing support                                                                      Source: Reuters
to the prices. There are reports of fresh enquiries of Pepper from
Vietnam and Russia in India. Further, demand from domestic stockists
ahead of winter season is seen supporting prices. On the other hand
pepper producers and stockiest in Kerala are holding on the stocks              Technical Chart – Black Pepper                 NCDEX October contract
releasing only small quantities.

Vietnam has reportedly sold 1.08 lakh tonnes of pepper till September
30 2011. Buyers from Vietnam are therefore placing fresh orders in
India. Carryover stocks of pepper till commencement of fresh arrivals in
March with Vietnam are projected to be around 15,000 tonnes. Also,
Indonesia’s output is estimated lower. (Source: Pepper Trade Board)

Indian parity in the international market was at $8,000-8,150 a tonne and
remained competitive and was attracting overseas orders while Vietnam
550 Gl Brazil and Indonesian origin are being offered at $8,500 per tonne
$8,150 and $8,600 per tonne respectively.

Exports from the major countries
According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper during April 2011-
August 2011 stood at 7,750 tonnes as compared to 7,800 tonnes in 2010-
                                                                                                                                           Source: Telequote
11, rise of 12%.

According to International Pepper Community (IPC) exports of black              Technical Outlook                            valid for October 7, 2011
pepper from six major exporting nations during January – August 2011
stood at 1.73 lakh tonnes registering a decline of 5.46 percent compared        Contract                         Unit       Support         Resistance
to 1.83 lakh tonnes in 2010. Exports from India, Vietnam and Malaysia
                                                                                Black Pepper NCDEX Nov Futures   Rs/qtl     36000-36300     37100-37300
posted an increase while Indonesia, Brazil and Srilanka registered a
decline in 2011.

Production and Arrivals
Arrivals of pepper in the domestic mandi on Wednesday stood at 18
tonnes against offtakes of 19 tonnes while arrivals on Tuesday stood at
20 tonnes and offtakes at 18 tonnes.

Production of pepper in India in 2010-11 is projected to be 48 thousand
tonnes (according to the Spices Board) as compared to 50 thousand
tonnes last year. However, there are expectations that this estimate
would be lowered further on account of the disease attacks and erratic
rainfall in the major growing areas particularly Kerala and Karnataka.

According to IPC global output of Pepper for 2011 is expected to decline
by 6,500 tonnes to 3.10 lakh tonnes. Vietnam production of the spice is
expected to be same as that of previous year to 1.10 lakh tonnes. Pepper
production in Brazil stood around 27,000 tonnes in 2010-11 as compared
to 35,000 tonnes the previous year.

Pepper prices are expected to trade sideways to up due to demand from
the local stockists.
In the medium to long term (November to December), price trend
expected to remain firm as Vietnam the major producer and exporter has
limited stocks. Prices are also likely to take cues from stocks left in
domestic along with price quotes offered by Indonesia and Vietnam in
the international market for their pepper origins. Brazil fresh crop arrivals
will also determine the price trend in the above period.

   Commodities Daily Report
   Friday | October 7, 2011

 Agricultural Commodities                                                   Market Highlights                                          as on October 5, 2011
                                                                                                                                            % Change
Jeera                                                                                                                       Prev
Jeera futures continued to trade lower due to selling by the market                                 Unit      Last          day       WoW          MoM           YoY
participants and settled at lower freeze of 2%. Prices are unable to
                                                                           Jeera Spot-                       15293          -0.37      -1.34       -1.50         15.71
sustain at higher levels despite steady prices at benchmark spot
                                                                           NCDEX(Unjha)            Rs/qtl
market. Sharp fall in the futures has caused buyers in the domestic to
follow wait and watch policy.                                              Jeera- NCDEX Oct'11               14181          -2.00      -8.15       -7.56         8.53
                                                                           Futures                 Rs/qtl
                                                                                                                                                       Source: Reuters
Prices in the global markets of Indian origin are quoting around
$3,450-3,500/tn while Syrian origin is quoting at $3,600-$3,500/tn
                                                                            Technical Chart – Jeera                                 NCDEX October contract
Production, Arrivals and Exports
Arrivals in Unjha mandi stood around on 5000 bags (1 bag= 55 kgs) on
Wednesday 1000 bags higher than Tuesday while off takes were
reported at 6,000 bags on Wednesday.

Production of Jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan in 2011 was around 21
lakh bags and 7-8 lakh bags respectively. (Each bag weighs 55 kgs).
(Source: spot market traders).
According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera during April 2011-
August 2011 stood at 9,500 tonnes as compared to 15,700 tonnes in
2010-11, decline of 39%.

NCDEX October Jeera prices may trade down due to selling by the
market participants. Any fresh enquiries from the overseas buyers are
                                                                                                                                                    Source: Telequote
likely to provide support to the prices in the short term.
                                                                            Market Highlights                                           as on October 5, 2011
In medium to long term (November to December) Jeera prices will
depend on carryover stocks of Jeera with the stockists, sowing of jeera                                                                  % Change
in the chief growing areas of Gujrat and Rajasthan. Sowing of jeera will                                                Prev
commence in the end of October and sufficient soil moisture is likely                            Unit       Last        day          WoW        MoM           YoY
to aid farmers and thereby increase the probability of better              Turmeric Spot-                   5345        0.00         1.45       -14.42       -63.58
production. This is likely to cap gains in the long term.                  NCDEX (N'zmbad)       Rs/qtl

                                                                           Turmeric- NCDEX                  4878        -1.85        6.27       -12.39       -66.55
Turmeric                                                                   Oct'11 Futures        Rs/qtl
Turmeric futures initially traded lower and hit the lower freeze of
around 4% but bounced back due to improved buying at the lower
levels. Decline in the arrivals in the domestic mandi due to Dassera        Technical Chart – Turmeric                              NCDEX October contract
holidays also supported prices. Nizamabad mandi will reopen on
Monday 10 October 2011. Erode mandi will however open today
(07 October 2011).

Production, Arrivals and Exports
Arrivals in Nizamabad stood at 500 bags while Erode market witnessed
arrivals of 6000 bags on Wednesday.

Turmeric production for the year 2011-12 is projected at 82 lakh bags
(1 bag= 70 kgs) compared to 69 lakh bags in 2010-11. However, area
covered under turmeric till 26 September, 2011 stood at 0.67 lakh ha
2.9% lower as compared to 0.69 lakh ha in the previous year. Area
covered under Turmeric in 2011-12 is however higher than the five
year average of 0.63 lakh hectares.
According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric during April                                                                                Source: Telequote
2011- August 2011 stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 24,000
tonnes in 2010-11, rise of 52%.                                             Technical Outlook                                        valid for October 7, 2011
                                                                                                                     Unit           Support         Resistance
Turmeric prices may witness improved buying at support levels due to
fresh export enquiries at cheaper rates.                                   Jeera NCDEX Nov Futures                   Rs/qtl         14200-14380     14850-15000

In the medium to long term (November to December) turmeric prices          Turmeric NCDEX Nov Futures                Rs/qtl         4800-4870       5050-5150
will take cues from the turmeric stocks at the domestic market and
growth of the sown turmeric crop particularly in Nizamabad and
Erode. Turmeric crop is in vegetative stage and is in good condition.


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