SB Key Economic Indicators - Briefings 2004

SPICe KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS FIONA MULLEN AND SIMON WAKEFIELD briefing 22 December 2004 04/93 This briefing provides a snapshot of some of the latest economic indicators for Scotland. The briefing provides data on GDP (including a summary of independent forecasts and breakdown by sector), the labour market, exports and businesses. This latest update includes the manufacturing export index, the Scottish Annual Labour Force Survey and OECD GDP comparisons. Scottish Parliament Information Centre (SPICe) Briefings are compiled for the benefit of the Members of the Parliament and their personal staff. Authors are available to discuss the contents of these papers with MSPs and their staff who should contact Fiona Mullen/Simon Wakefield on extension 85087/85372 or email fiona.mullen@scottish.parliament.uk or Simon.Wakefield@scottish.parliament.uk Members of the public or external organisations may comment on this briefing by emailing us at spice.research@scottish.parliament.uk. However, researchers are unable to enter into personal discussion in relation to SPICe Briefing Papers. Every effort is made to ensure that the information contained in SPICe briefings is correct at the time of publication. Readers should be aware however that briefings are not necessarily updated or otherwise amended to reflect subsequent changes. www.scottish.parliament.uk 1 Summary of Key Indicators Indicator Total GDP Trend Rising (1.8% annual growth, 0.9% rise over last qtr -2004 Q2) Further data Figure 1 and Table 1 Manufacturing GDP Stabilising after decline (0.3% annual decline, 0.4% rise over last qtr 2004 Q2) Figure 3 and Table 2 Service industries GDP Rising (2.0% annual growth to 2004 Q2, with 6.2% annual growth in financial services sector) Figures 1 and Tables 1 and 3 4, Scottish growth forecasts Continued growth (ranging from 1.8% to 2.7% for 2005, but below the projected UK growth rate) Table 6 Unemployment Falling (marginal annual fall in claimant count to October 04, economically inactive annual decrease of 0.4%) Figure 7 and Tables 8 and 9 VAT registered businesses Stable (a net increase of 535 businesses to 2003 from a turnover of approx 11,500 annual registrations and de-registrations) Figures 8 and 9 and Table 10 Manufactured exports Recent minor Improvement (2.9% increase in index over last qtr to 2004 Q2. however, 36% decline by 2003 Q4 since the peak in 2000 Q4) Figure 10 Retail sales Rising but unsteady (5.5% rise on total sales in Sep 04 in comparison with same month last year) Figure 11 and Table 11 providing research and information services to the Scottish Parliament 2 Gross Domestic Product Figure 1: Scottish GDP at basic prices 1998-2004 (Source: Scottish Executive GDP series Nov 2004) 115.0 110.0 105.0 Services GDP Index (2001=100) 100.0 Total Gross Value Added Construction 95.0 90.0 Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Production 85.0 80.0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2003 20042004 Time Period The Scottish Executive series for Scottish GDP shows: • A 0.9% rise over the latest quarter (to Q2 2004) and an overall rise of 1.8% over the year to Q2 2004. Total GDP (at basic prices- or Gross Value Added) has seen a slow but steady increase since 1998 • The production sector GVA, which includes manufacturing, has seen a 0.4% increase over the latest quarter, with a 0.7% decrease across the year. There has been a steady longer term decline in GVA in the production sector from 2000 to 2003 • The services sector saw a 1.2% quarterly increase, and a 2.0% annual rise. This is part of a generally continuing rise in GVA since 1998 • The construction sector experienced a 0.1% rise over the latest quarter, and a 9.3% increase over the year to 2004 Q2 Table 1: Quarterly and annual changes in Scottish GDP (2001=100) (Source: Scottish Executive GDP series November 2004) % change in GDP at basic prices (2001=100) Q2 04 on Q1 04 Latest 4 qtrs on previous 4 qtrs Agriculture, Total Gross Forestry & Fishing Value Added Construction Production +0.9 +1.8 +0.1 +9.3 +0.1 +1.8 +0.4 -0.7 Services +1.2 +2.0 Data available online providing research and information services to the Scottish Parliament 3 WHAT IS GDP? Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measure of the value of goods and services produced in Scotland, before allowing for depreciation or capital consumption. Net receipts from interest, profits and dividends abroad are excluded. Gross National Product includes these factors, but currently there is no official calculation of GNP for Scotland. WHAT IS GVA? There are two measures of GDP, market prices and basic prices. The estimates produced by the Scottish Executive are measured in basic prices, which exclude taxes less subsidies on products (taxes on products include VAT and excise duties). Gross Value Added (GVA) is another term for GDP at basic prices. GDP at market prices is the headline measure used by the UK but the ONS also produce estimates of GVA by industry breakdown as it is difficult to break down taxes and subsidies below whole economy level. GDP at market prices is not produced for Scotland due to the same difficulty of allocating taxes and subsidies below national level. The UK index moved to a 2001 base year on publication of the Quarterly National Accounts in June 2004 (which means the ONS are using 2001 weights for the latest quarters instead of 2000 weights). This change has caused (mainly upward) revisions to the UK data from 2001 onwards. The Scottish index will move to a 2001 base year on publication of 2004 Q2 results in October 2004. NOTE: REVISIONS TO THE DATA Industry weights used in the Scottish GDP index data have been updated to 2001. The Scottish Executive explains that the effects of the new weights on the overall GDP index are negligible. There is a slightly positive effect on the production and construction sectors balanced by a very small negative effect on the service sectors with the result of almost no change to total GDP. providing research and information services to the Scottish Parliament 4 GDP Growth in other countries Figure 2: OECD GDP (Volume) GDP growth on 4 quarters to 2004 Q2 compared with previous 4 quarters (Source: Scottish Executive) 5.00% 4.50% 4.00% 3.50% % GDP growth 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% Australia Austria Italy Czech Republic United States South Korea Eurozone Germany Scotland (Basic Prices)12 Norway Canada France EU15 Portugal Greece Ireland (Constant Mkt Prices) UK (Market Prices)2 UK (Basic Prices)2 Denmark New Zealand Major Seven (G7) Netherlands Belgium Sweden Finland Japan Spain Switzerland Mexico Country Figure 2 above ranks each country in terms of its GDP growth over the year to Q2 (the first quarter) of 2004. The highest growth rates have been seen in the United States (4.48%) and South Korea (4.33%) with Portugal and the Netherlands producing the lowest levels of growth (0.17% and 0.07% respectively). Figures for the UK are provided in both market prices (3.02%) and basic prices (2.79%), whilst the Scottish figures are only available in basic prices (1.84%). The differing methodologies make direct comparisons between Scottish GDP change and that of other countries difficult, though a broad picture of relative performance can be inferred. N.B. A new methodology for calculating GDP figures, ‘chain-linking’, which more accurately reflects Scotland’s important sectors such as electronics, has recently been introduced. This has had the result of producing a more positive picture of Scottish GDP growth. Annual Chainlinking is a method of annually weighted and chained estimates of volume measures and was recommended by the European System of National Accounts 1993 (SNA 1993). The main change introduced by the chain-linking methodology is that where the previous fixed base methodology involved weighting industries together based on their contribution to GDP in the base year (latterly 1995), now weights are recalculated every year, rebasing to the latest year for which weights are available (currently 2001) and linking on the fourth quarter of each year. providing research and information services to the Scottish Parliament 5 GDP by Industry – Manufacturing Figure 3: GDP in selected manufacturing sectors (Source: Scottish Executive GDP series November 2004) 140.0 130.0 Total Manufacturing 120.0 GDP Index (2001=100) 110.0 Engineering and Allied Industries Food, Drink and Tobacco Industries Textiles, Footwear and Clothing 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 • • • • • Manufacturing in general has seen a continuous and steady decline in GDP from 2000 onwards. However, there has only been an annual 0.3% decrease to the period 2004 Q2 Engineering and allied industries (which include the electronics sector) experienced a large increase in output from 1995 onwards, peaking in 2000. However, over the period 20012002, there was a relatively sharp decline. From 2002, the decline has steadied. It can also be seen that over the last 4 quarters to 2004 Q2 there has been an increase in GDP in this industry of 0.6%. There was also an increase of 0.4% over the quarter 2004 Q1 to 2004 Q2 Total manufacturing saw an increase in GDP (+0.4%) over the latest quarter from 2004 Q1 to 2004 Q2. This increase came mainly from an increase in GDP in refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel (+4.5%), and metals and metal products (+3.8%) over the last quarter Chemicals and man-made fibres experienced the largest decline over the year, falling 7.4% The only industries to experience an increase over the annual period to 2004 Q2 were refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel (+7.5%), food, drink and tobacco industries (+3.8%), and engineering and allied industries (+0.6%) 1 Q 2 Q 3 19 Q4 99 -Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 20 Q4 00 -Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 20 Q4 01 -Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 20 Q4 02 -Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 20 Q4 03 -Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 20 Q4 04 -Q 1 Q 2 19 98 -Q Time Period providing research and information services to the Scottish Parliament 6 Table 2: Annual and quarterly changes in manufacturing GDP (2001=100) (Source: Scottish Executive GDP series, November 2004) refined petroleum products & Manufacturing nuclear fuel % change, latest qtr on previous qtr % change, latest 4 qtrs on previous 4 qtrs Chemicals & man-made fibres Metals & metal products Engineering & Allied Industries Food, Drink & Tobacco Industries Textiles, Footwear, Leather & Clothing Total Other 0.4 4.5 0.1 3.8 0.4 -0.4 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 7.5 -7.4 -3 0.6 3.8 -3.0 -1.4 Data available online GDP by Industry – Services Figure 4: GDP in selected service sectors (Source: Scottish Executive GDP series November 2004) 120.0 115.0 110.0 105.0 GDP Index (2001=100) Retail & Wholesale Hotels & Catering 100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 80.0 75.0 70.0 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4 2004 - Q1 1998-Q1 1999-Q1 2000-Q1 2001-Q1 2002-Q1 2003-Q1 Q2 Transport, storage & Comms Financial Services Public Admin, Education & Health Time Period • • • The financial services sector has generally been the fastest growing part of the Scottish service sector in recent years, though the growth rate steadied in 2001/02 and over the last four quarters to 2004 Q2 was + 6.2%. GDP also increased significantly in the areas of real estate and business services (3.5%), public administration, education and health (+2.6%) All service industries experienced growth over the year from 2003 Q2 to 2004 Q2 All sectors recorded experienced positive growth over the last quarter. Financial services saw the largest growth over the quarter to 2004 Q2 (+3.8%), followed by retail and wholesale (+2.8%) providing research and information services to the Scottish Parliament 7 Table 3: Quarterly and annual changes in service sector GDP (2001=100) (Source: Scottish Executive GDP series November 2004. Data available online) Transport, storage & Comms Real Estate & Public Admin, Business Education & Services Health Retail & Wholesale Hotels & Catering Financial Services Other Services % change, latest qtr on previous qtr (2004 Q1 on 2003 Q4) % change, latest 4 qtrs on preceding 4 qtrs (2004 Q1 on 2003 Q1) 2.8 2.1 1.9 3.8 1.3 0.3 0.5 1.9 0.8 0.2 6.2 3.5 2.6 2.5 Economic Forecasts Table 4: Forecasts for the UK Economy (Average of new latest month’s independent forecasts received between 1 and 11 November 2004 – 20 forecasts. Source: UK Treasury 2004 GDP Growth (%) Inflation Rate (Q4 %) CPI RPI Claimant Unemployment (Mn) Current Account (£Bn) PSNB (Fiscal yrs : £Bn) 1.4 3.2 0.84 -26.9 36 1.8 2.6 0.85 -29.5 35.4 3.2 2005 2.6 Table 5: Medium Term Forecasts for the UK Economy from Independent Forecasters* 2004 GDP Growth (%) Inflation Rate (%) CPI RPI excl. MIP Claimant Unemployment (Mn) Current Account (£Bn) PSNB (Fiscal yrs : £Bn) 1.4 2.2 0.9 -26.1 36.4 1.8 2.4 0.89 -28.2 37.4 1.9 2.5 0.9 -27.3 36.9 2.1 2.7 0.91 -28.8 37.4 2.2 2.8 0.91 -26.6 3.2 2005 2.7 2006 2.4 2007 2.6 2008 2.6 * The medium term projections are from 19 forecasters for the calendar years 2004 to 2008, and the fiscal years 2004-05 to 2007-08. The table summarises the independent average, which is the average of medium term projections made in the last three months • • Table 4 above indicates that, in the UK, independent forecasters latest predictions are a 3.2% growth rate in 2004, falling to 2.6% in 2005. The medium term forecast is also 3.2% in 2004, seen in Table 5 (November 2004) In the medium term forecasts, inflation (Retail Price Index excluding Mortgage Interest Payments) is anticipated to rise from 2.2% in 2004 to 2.8% by 2008, but this is fairly stable. This prediction by 2008 has risen by 0.1% since the last medium term forecast. However, the latest forecasts suggest an inflation rate of 3.2% in 2004, falling in 2005 to 2.6%. This figure for 2004 is higher than that predicted in February and July of this year (but only by 0.1%) providing research and information services to the Scottish Parliament 8 • According to the medium term projections, Public Sector Net Borrowing is expected to rise over this period, from £36.4bn in the fiscal years 2004/05 to £37.4bn in 2007/08. The level predicted by 07/08 is lower than that predicted in July’s forecasts by just under £3bn Table 6: Forecasts for the Scottish Economy (Source: Scottish Executive, December 2004) Independent Forecasts of GDP Growth for Scotland and the UK GDP for 2005 Experian Business Strategies (Nov 2004) Cambridge Econometrics (Aug 2004) Fraser of Allander Inst (Nov 2004) ITEM Club (Dec 2004) • Scotland 2.4% 2.7% 1.9% 1.8% UK 2.8% 3.1% 2.5% 2.8% In Scotland, as Table 6 indicates, four independent forecasters (Experian Business Strategies, Cambridge Econometrics, the Fraser of Allander Institute and ITEM Club) all anticipate lower growth in Scotland than the UK in 2005, ranging from 1.8% to 2.7% GDP growth, whilst the UK’s predicted growth ranges from 2.5% to 3.1% The same four forecasters also all predict the same trend continuing in 2006, with Scotland experiencing lower GDP growth than the UK. Forecasts in Scotland range from 1.8% to 2.6% in 2006, with forecasts for the UK ranging from 2.5-2.8 during the same period • UK Forecasts available online providing research and information services to the Scottish Parliament 9 Employment Figure 5: Employee job estimates by industry (seasonally unadjusted) (Source: Office for National Statistics, accessed via NOMIS November 2004) 700000 600000 Public Admin, Education and Health Distribution, hotels and restaurants Banking, finance and Insurance Manufacturing 500000 No of Jobs 400000 300000 200000 Construction 100000 Agriculture and Fishing 0 Dec-95 Mar-96 Jun-96 Sep-96 Dec-96 Mar-97 Jun-97 Sep-97 Dec-97 Mar-98 Jun-98 Sep-98 Dec-98 Mar-99 Jun-99 Sep-99 Dec-99 Mar-00 Jun-00 Sep-00 Dec-00 Mar-01 Jun-01 Sep-01 Dec-01 Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Time Period • • • • Over the period Dec 2002 - April 2004, the financial services sector experienced a decline in employment of 2.4% Manufacturing employment has continued to decline over the entire period. As at June 2004 there were an estimated 252,000 manufacturing employees in Scotland. This is an 2.4% decrease since the same period in 2003 (258,000) Distribution, hotels and restaurants also saw virtually no change in the estimates of employment year on year (-0.09%) from June 2003 to June 2004 (528,000). However, there was a seasonal increase (+3%) in estimates of employment from 527,000 in September 2003 to 542,000 in December 2003. This fell back by March 2004 to 522,000 The sectors that saw an estimated annual increase were public administration, education and health; and construction. From June 2003 to June 2004, public administration, education and health experienced an increase in the number employed from 609,000 to 617,000 (an increase of 1.2%). Construction saw an estimated increase in the number employed from 135,000 to 146,000 (an increase of 8.2%) Labour Market data available online providing research and information services to the Scottish Parliament 10 Employment by Industry Figure 6: Composition of the Scottish workforce – November 2004, unadjusted (Source: Office for National Statistics, accessed via NOMIS November 2004) Distribution, hotels and restaurants 24% Transport and communications 5% Banking, finance and insurance, etc 17% Construction 7% Manufacturing 11% Energy and water 2% Agriculture and fishing 1% Other services 6% Public administration,education & health 27% Figure 6 shows the proportions of estimated employment attributed to each industry. It can be seen that nearly a third of all employment is estimated to be in public administration, education and health (27%) The other two main providers of employment are distribution, hotels and restaurants (24%) and banking, finance and insurance etc (17%), followed by manufacturing (11%). Over three quarters of Scottish employment is accounted for by service sector industries. Further analysis of the type of employment across these sectors is provided in Table 7 below • • Three industries include a significant proportion of part time jobs - public administration (38%), distribution (50%) and finance (29%) In each of these three sectors, at least half of all employees are female, with women accounting for 73% of employment in public administration etc, 57% of employment in distribution etc and 50% of employment in finance etc However, with the exception of public administration, in every industry males have significantly higher proportions of full time employment than females. For example, even though females account for 50% of total employment in finance etc, 42% of employment in this industry is full time males in comparison to 29% of employment being full time females. • providing research and information services to the Scottish Parliament 11 Table 7: Industry Employment Categorised by Full Time/Part Time and Male/Female Workers (June 2004) (Source: Office for National Statistics, accessed via NOMIS November 2004) Public admin, education and health 616829 383060 233769 62.10 37.90 143759 24143 239301 209626 23.31 3.91 38.80 33.98 Banking, finance & Insurance, etc 372436 266070 106366 71.44 28.56 157487 28276 108583 78090 42.29 7.59 29.15 20.97 June 2004 (latest figures) TOTAL FT- NUMBER PT- NUMBER FT - % of total PT - % of total Male FT Male PT Female FT Female PT Male FT- % of total Male PT- % of total Female FT- % of total Female PT- % of total Distribution hotels & restaurants 527590 262700 264890 49.79 50.21 156528 72880 106172 192010 29.67 13.81 20.12 36.39 Manufacturing 251672 231595 20077 92.02 7.98 172113 6606 59482 13471 68.39 2.62 23.63 5.35 Construction 146404 139436 6968 95.24 4.76 122188 1758 17248 5210 83.46 1.20 11.78 3.56 Transport and comms 121395 101818 19577 83.87 16.13 78547 9663 23271 9914 64.70 7.96 19.17 8.17 Agriculture and Fishing 31269 24345 6924 77.86 22.14 20565 3550 3780 3374 65.77 11.35 12.09 10.79 providing research and information services to the Scottish Parliament 12 Unemployment Figure 7: Unemployment by Local Authority Area (Annual Scottish Labour Force Survey 2003/04, Scottish Executive/Office of National Statistics) 10.0% Unemployment rate (% of economically active) 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Dumfries and Galloway Edinburgh, City of Glasgow City Inverclyde Aberdeen City Argyll & Bute Dundee City East Ayrshire Midlothian Moray Scottish Borders, The North Ayrshire Renfrewshire East Renfrewshire East Dumbartonshire Perth and Kinross South Ayrshire Angus East Lothian Falkirk Fife Scotland Clackmannanshire North Lanarkshire Aberdeenshire Highland South Lanarkshire Stirling Eilean Siar (Western Isles) West Dumbartonshire West Lothian Local Authority Area • • • • • • Based on the International Labour Organisation (ILO) definition, according to the Annual Scottish Labour Force Survey, there were 145,000 people aged 16 or over unemployed in 2003/04 (5.8% of the economically active population) In terms of Local Authority Areas, Perth and Kinross had the lowest unemployment rate (2.4%), with North Ayrshire and North Lanarkshire being the highest at 9.2% and 9.5% respectively In terms of the major cities, Aberdeen (3.6%) and Edinburgh (5.5%) experienced much lower rates than Glasgow (8%) and Dundee (8.2%) Data was unavailable for the Orkney Islands and the Shetland Islands Table 8 below shows the actual number of unemployed by Local Authority Area Table 9 below indicates in July-September, the employment rate was 75.1% (an increase of 0.6% since the previous data release in April-June 2004). Some 79.3% of the working age population in July-September 2004 is described as being “economically active” (in employment or unemployed, a fall of 0.2% since the previous data). Of the 650,000 economically inactive, some 440,000 are described as not wanting a job, with 210,000 wanting a job providing research and information services to the Scottish Parliament 13 Table 8: Unemployment by Local Authority Area (Annual Scottish Labour Force Survey 2003/04, Scottish Executive/Office of National Statistics) Local Authority Area Proportion Level Scotland 5.8% 145,000 Aberdeen City 3.6% 4,000 Aberdeenshire 4.4% 5,000 Angus 5.7% 3,000 Argyll & Bute 5.4% 2,000 Scottish Borders, The 3.1% 2,000 Clackmannanshire 6.4% 1,000 West Dumbartonshire 8.1% 4,000 Dumfries and Galloway 4.7% 3,000 Dundee City 8.2% 5,000 East Ayrshire 7.2% 4,000 East Dumbartonshire 3.3% 2,000 East Lothian 4.4% 2,000 East Renfrewshire 4.4% 2,000 Edinburgh, City of 5.5% 13,000 Falkirk 3.9% 3,000 Fife 5.1% 9,000 Glasgow City 8.0% 21,000 Highland 4.4% 5,000 Inverclyde 7.7% 3,000 Midlothian 4.6% 2,000 Moray 5.6% 2,000 North Ayrshire 9.2% 6,000 North Lanarkshire 9.5% 14,000 Orkney Islands * * Perth and Kinross 2.4% 2,000 Renfrewshire 4.9% 4,000 Shetland Islands * * South Ayrshire 6.0% 3,000 South Lanarkshire 6.1% 9,000 Stirling 5.8% 3,000 West Lothian 4.7% 4,000 Eilean Siar (Western Isles) 4.3% 1,000 providing research and information services to the Scottish Parliament 14 Table 9: Key Labour Market Statistics (Source: Office for National Statistics, Labour Market Statistics November 2004, Scotland, seasonally adjusted unless otherwise stated) Level (Thousands) 2,442 134 2,576 650 440 210 2,507 90.4 3.4 Change on year Change on (level) year (rate) Rate (%) 75.1 5.2 79.3 20.7 40 -13 27 -11 2 -13 2 -9 -0.3 0.8 -0.6 0.4 -0.4 Date Employment Unemployment Economically Active Economically Inactive: Not wanting a job Wanting a job Civilian workforce jobs (unadjusted) Claimant count (seasonally adjusted) Jul-Sep Jul-Sep Jul-Sep Jul-Sep Jul-Sep Jul-Sep Jun-04 Oct-04 Data available online UNEMPLOYMENT MEASUREMENTS (Source: Office of National Statistics 2002) Official estimates of unemployment are produced by ONS and are based upon the ILO (International Labour Organization) definition. The claimant count measures how many unemployed people are claiming unemployment-related benefits. There is a difference between the two series, and although they move broadly in line often one measure increases while the other falls. The reason for this is the difference in what they measure. Unemployment is a count of jobless people who want to work, are available to work, and are actively seeking employment. The ILO definition is used internationally, so comparisons between countries can be made, and it also allows for consistent comparisons over time. Unemployment is calculated using data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS), so it is subject to sampling differences. The claimant count measures only those people who are claiming unemployment-related benefits (Jobseeker's Allowance). It is always the lower measure because some unemployed people are not entitled to claim benefits, or choose not to do so. Benefits rules vary over time and between different countries, so it is more difficult to make comparisons. The claimant count comes from the administrative records of Jobcentre Plus (formerly Employment Service), and is available earlier than the LFS-based unemployment data. The difference between the two measures is wider for women than for men. Currently fewer than half of unemployed women claim unemployment-related benefits compared with around three quarters of men. Unemployment data are available in their current format back to 1984 (non-seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted). The present seasonally adjusted claimant count series goes back to 1971, and is adjusted to allow for significant changes to benefit rules. providing research and information services to the Scottish Parliament 15 Change in the business stock Figure 8: VAT registrations and deregistrations in Scotland (Source: Office for National Statistics, accessed via NOMIS November 2004) 15000 10000 No. of (de)registrations 5000 Registrations 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Deregistrations Net Change -5000 -10000 -15000 • • As a percentage of the overall stock of VAT registered businesses, the net change in the stock has been relatively marginal over the last decade. The total VAT registered stock has remained between 120,000 and 127,000 since 1996, although there has been a small and steady increase in stock year on year Although registrations exceeded de-registrations in every year between 1996 and 2003, the net increase figures show a significantly larger increase in 1997 (+1775) and 1998 (+1265). In the remaining years, the net increase has ranged between 400 and 700 Table 10: VAT registrations and deregistrations in Scotland (Source: Office for National Statistics, accessed via NOMIS November 2004) Date 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Registrations Deregistrations Stocks at end of Yr Net Change 11360 12435 11855 11440 11260 10855 11020 11915 -10785 -10660 -10590 -10860 -10605 -10415 -10625 -11380 120910 122700 123965 124550 125215 125650 126020 126555 575 1775 1265 580 655 440 395 535 providing research and information services to the Scottish Parliament 16 Figure 9: Net Change in Business Stock by Industry (actual, 2003) (Source: Office for National Statistics, accessed via NOMIS November 2004) 1000 800 Change in Business Stock (actual) 600 400 200 Net Change 0 Public Administration and other Agriculture and Fisheries Energy and Water Banking, Finance and Insurance Construction Hotels and Restaurants Real Estate Education and Health Wholesale and Retail Manufacturing Transport and Comms Total -200 -400 -600 Industry Type • • In 2003, it can be seen that there was a large net increase in business stock in the real estate sector, with small overall increases in construction, hotels and restaurants, transport and communications, and education and health These increases were offset due to decreases in business stocks in other sectors, particularly agriculture and fisheries and public admin and health, which saw the largest net decreases of 500 and 220 businesses respectively providing research and information services to the Scottish Parliament 17 Manufactured Exports The index of manufactured exports is published by the Scottish Executive quarterly and provides information on the change in the level of exports (in constant prices) for each quarter from 1995 Q1. The series was suspended following publication in October 2003 to allow time to integrate the quarterly series with the development of the annual Global Connections Survey which was published in February 2004.The publication of results for 2004 Q1 represented the first release of the series since this suspension. The quarterly series now presents exports in constant prices only (i.e. deflated to 2000 prices). Constant price estimates provide a more appropriate measure for monitoring change over time as they remove the effect of price changes and allow the change in the volume of exports to be measured. The series is now produced in index form rather than cash values. All export sales values have been deflated to 2001 prices in this quarter, so cash values are not particularly meaningful. The main purpose of the series is to identify change over time and therefore an index is more appropriate. Figure 10: Scottish manufacturing exports index (2001=100, seasonally adjusted) (Source: Scottish Executive manufacturing exports series) 140.0 130.0 Manufacturing Export Index (2001=100) 120.0 110.0 Total Manufacturing 100.0 90.0 Engineering & Allied Industries Food, Drink & Tobacco 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 • Figure 11 indicates a considerable decline in seasonally adjusted manufactured exports since the final quarter of 2000, although the rate of decline appears to be recovering since the end of 2002. In 2000 Q4, the manufactured exports index stood at 113.1. By Q4 of 2003, this had 19 98 19 Q1 98 19 Q2 98 19 Q3 98 19 Q4 99 19 Q1 99 19 Q2 99 19 Q3 99 20 Q4 00 20 Q1 00 20 Q2 00 20 Q3 00 20 Q4 01 20 Q1 01 20 Q2 01 20 Q3 01 20 Q4 02 20 Q1 02 20 Q2 02 20 Q3 02 20 Q4 03 20 Q1 03 20 Q2 03 20 Q3 03 20 Q4 04 20 Q1 04 Q 2 Time Period providing research and information services to the Scottish Parliament 18 • • • fallen to 77.2, a reduction of 36% in 3 years. However, over the last quarter to 2004 Q2, there was an increase of 2.9% It can be clearly seen that this overall pattern in manufactured exports from 2000 to 2004 has been the result of a strikingly similar pattern in the exports of electrical and instrument engineering, a fall of 52% since the high point of 2000 Q4 to 2003 Q4 Food, drink and tobacco exports have been generally rising (although not steadily) from 2000 to 2004 Other manufacturing exports (including paper, printing and publishing exports) have been fairly steady over the period For a further breakdown of manufactured exports, data is available online Global Connections Survey (Source: Scottish Executive) The Global Connections survey provides a new measurement of Scottish annual export data. It is a large survey of Scottish businesses and was carried out in the summer of 2003. The data was collected for 2002, with all industry sectors covered (categorised using Standard Industrial Classification or SIC codes). The latest survey results have remained the same since the previous SPICe ‘Key Economic Indicators’ briefing. See SPICe Briefing September 2004 for further information on this survey Further information on the methodology and sampling techniques used for the Global connections survey are available on-line providing research and information services to the Scottish Parliament 19 Retail Sales Figure 11: Scottish Retail Sales in 2003 and 2004 – annual % change (like for like basis) (Scottish Retail Consortium, Royal Bank of Scotland, Scottish Retail Sales Monitor November 2004) 10 8 %change on same month in the previous year 6 4 Food Non-food All Sales 2 0 Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun03 03 03 03 03 03 -2 Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun03 03 03 03 03 03 04 04 04 04 04 04 Jul04 Aug- Sep04 04 -4 Time Period • • As Figure 15 above and Table 11 below indicate, the rate of growth (year on year) in monthly Scottish retail sales has been quite unsteady over 2003 and 2004. There was a significant increase in food sales in April 2003 in comparison to April 2002 (as well as December 2003). However this rate of increase came back down to much lower levels in May 2003 and after December 2003 The rate of increase in sales in each month has been larger in food sales than non-food sales in 2003 (apart from October). However, this pattern appears to have reversed in 2004, with the rate of increase in non-food sales in each month being larger than that of food sales providing research and information services to the Scottish Parliament 20 Table 11: Scottish Retail Sales in 2004 – annual % change (like for like basis) (Scottish Retail Consortium, Royal Bank of Scotland, Scottish Retail Sales Monitor November 2004) Scottish Retail Sales: Annual Percentage Changes SCOTLAND Total Food Jan-03 Feb-03 Mar-03 Apr-03 May-03 Jun-03 Jul-03 Aug-03 Sep-03 Oct-03 Nov-03 Dec-03 Jan-04 Feb-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 May-04 Jun-04 Jul-04 Aug-04 Sep-04 6 4.5 3.9 10 5.2 6.9 7.2 8.7 7.2 5.2 6 5.8 6 5 4.2 0.6 3 8.7 6.8 7.6 8 Non-food All Sales 4.3 2 3.8 9.7 3 4.8 6.3 6.5 6.2 7.4 6 5.4 9 8.2 8.3 7.8 11.4 7.7 8 7.6 7.1 5.1 3.2 3.9 9.9 4 5.8 6.7 7.6 6.7 6.3 6 5.6 7.6 6.7 6.3 4.4 7.3 8.2 7.4 7.6 7.6 Food 3.8 2.5 2 7.9 2.9 4.5 4.9 5.7 4.4 2.9 3.4 7.4 4.1 2.6 1.6 -2.1 0.3 5.6 3.1 3.7 6.1 Like-for-like Non-food All Sales 3 2.1 1.9 4.9 0.9 2.6 3.2 2.8 4.2 4.4 3.4 4.7 6.1 4.3 5.3 5 9 5.6 5.8 4.1 4.9 3.4 2.3 2 6.3 1.9 3.5 4 4.2 4.3 3.7 3.4 6 5.2 3.5 3.5 1.6 4.8 5.6 4.5 3.9 5.5 Total 6.8 3.9 2.1 7.6 4.3 5.7 5.5 5.1 5.5 3.7 3.6 2.3 6.8 5.3 4.4 4.9 6.5 5 4.3 3.2 4.6 Like for like 4.1 1.3 -0.6 4.8 1.5 3 2.6 2.1 2.6 0.8 0.9 -0.2 3.8 2.2 1.3 1.9 3.7 2.4 1.8 0.6 2 UK • Data available online providing research and information services to the Scottish Parliament 21 SOURCES Bank of England publications [Online]. Available at: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/inflationreport/index.htm [Accessed 15 Dec 2004] HM Treasury. (2004) Forecasts for the UK Economy: Index 2004. Available at: http://www.hmtreasury.gov.uk/Economic_Data_and_Tools/Forecast_for_the_UK_Economy/data_forecasts_in dex.cfm? NOMIS Official Labour Market Statistics. (2003) VAT registrations/de-registrations by industry 2002. Available at: http://www.nomisweb.co.uk [Accessed 10 Dec 2004] Office of National Statistics. (2004) Labour Market Statistics: Scotland. Available at: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/lmsscot0204.pdf [Accessed 15 Dec 2004] Royal Bank of Scotland. (2004). Scottish Retail Sales Monitor. Available at: http://www.royalbankscot.co.uk/Group_Information/RBS_and_the_Economy/Surveys/default.ht m [Accessed 15 Dec 2004] Scottish Council for Development and Industry (SCDI). (2004) Indicator. Winter 2004. Scottish Executive. (2004) Scottish Manufactured Exports Estimates. Available at: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/bulletins/00289-00.asp [Accessed 15 Dec 2004] Scottish Executive. (2004) Quarterly GDP index. Available at: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/about/ASD/OCEA/00018879/Download.aspx 2004] [Accessed 15 Dec providing research and information services to the Scottish Parliament 22