"UGANDA Food Security Outlook Update September 2011 Second "
UGANDA Food Security Outlook Update September 2011 Second cropping season begins in bimodal areas Key messages Above‐average first season (June‐August) crop production Figure 1. Estimated food security outcomes, in all bimodal areas, except the northern and northwestern September to December 2011 areas, has resulted in improved household food security, especially for poor households in both rural and urban areas. Although production in the northern and northwestern areas was below average, food stocks from the harvest are expected to last through November at least. The country is expected to remain at IPC Phase 1 (no or minimal food insecurity) through December, as there are no expectations for acute food insecurity for more than 20 percent of the population in a given area. The second rainy season began seasonably in mid‐August, though heavy rains at the start of the season caused landslides, flooding, and some crop destruction. The favorable forecast for the remainder of the season raises prospects for a good second season in most bimodal areas. However, there are some concerns about a potential second consecutive below‐average harvest in parts of northwestern and northern Uganda. Source: FEWS NET For more information on the IPC Acute Food Insecurity Scale, please see: www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale Early crop harvests in Karamoja are improving household food security. Although average harvests are expected, Figure 2. Weather forecast, September to December food prices are already declining. Rangeland conditions 2011 remain favorable in agro‐pastoral and pastoral areas. Updated food security outlook through December 2011 The recently concluded first season harvest of staples such as maize, millet, sweet potatoes, cassava and bananas (matooke) have increased food availability and access in households and markets, resulting in price declines of most staples in bimodal areas. Consequently, no or minimal acute food insecurity is expected in these areas through December at least. Food stocks in eastern, central, southern, and western Uganda are expected Near normal to Above normal to last through December, when second season harvests will Near normal to also be available, beginning in November. In northern and Below normal northwestern Uganda, where first season production was below average, harvesting of staples is still ongoing due to late onset Source: Uganda Dept. of Meteorology of the rains in these areas. Long‐term sorghum in Acholi sub‐ This report provides an update to the July 2011 FEWS NET Food Security Outlook report which estimated food security conditions in Uganda through December 2011. The next Outlook report will be released in October and will cover the October 2011 through March 2012 period. FEWS NET Uganda FEWS NET Washington FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this 32 Kanjokya St., Kamwokya, Kampala 1717 H St NW publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Tel: +256-77-2 299 000 Washington DC 20006 for International Development or the United States Government. firstname.lastname@example.org email@example.com www.fews.net/Uganda UGANDA Food Security Outlook Update September 2011 region is expected to be harvested beginning in November, as is typical, which would reduce the current high sorghum prices. Therefore, the majority of households in Uganda are expected to be food secure through December (Figure 1). The second rainy season began seasonably in mid‐August in bimodal areas. Farmers have planted a wide variety of cereals, legumes, and tubers. This is a major season in western Uganda, but minor in other bimodal areas where it accounts for about 40 percent of annual household food production. Excessive rains in late August caused landslides and flooding in the Elgon sub‐region (eastern Uganda), resulting in the death of 26 people, and displacement of about 62,520 people. Rains also caused the deterioration of roads in rural areas in other parts of the country as well, which hampered movement of commodities. Also, some farmers who planted early in the season suffered losses due to water logging and had to replant. Additionally, heavy rains have led to concerns about increased post‐harvest losses due to poor drying of food commodities. The second season rainfall forecast issued by the Department of Meteorology Figure 3. Rainfall Anomalies in indicates that southern, central, eastern and western regions are likely to receive Karamoja: April – August 2011 near‐average to above‐rainfall, with average to below‐average rains in the rest of Percent of Normal (%) 0 - 10 the country (Figure 2). The rains are likely to cease by mid‐December in western 10 - 20 20 - 50 Uganda and mid‐October in most other bimodal areas. The forecast raises prospects 50 - 80 of a good second season in some bimodal areas. However, in northwestern and 80 - 120 120 - 200 northern Uganda, the potential for a second consecutive less‐than‐average season KAAB ON G 200 - 300 >300 raises some concerns. Although food prices are beginning to decline with the first season harvests, they KOT IDO are significantly above the five‐year average and 2010 prices and are expected to remain at these levels until December. While the high prices give farmers incentive ABIM MO RO TO to increase crop production this season, they are also likely to constrain access for market‐dependent households, especially urban poor households. The regional NAPAK demand for cereals from South Sudan and Kenya are expected to sustain high prices. NAKAPIRIPIRIT In unimodal Karamoja, the rainy season has ended. Spatial rainfall anomalies of the cropping season indicate that rainfall performance in Karamoja was generally AM UDAT average (Figure 3). The agricultural areas of Kaabong, Abim, Napak and Nakapiripirit districts received near‐average rainfall, while agro‐pastoral areas of Moroto, Kotido Source: USGS and Kaabong districts received slightly below‐average rainfall (50‐80 percent of average). This has resulted in relatively good performance of crops such as sorghum, maize and beans. An early harvest of maize and sorghum (the staple crops) Figure 4. Nominal retail sorghum prices in Nakapiripirit has started in Karamoja, resulting in increased household food stocks and market supplies. The exception is Abim district, where the long‐term sorghum will not be ready for harvest until November. Increased availability of cereals has led to declines in staple prices. For instance, the price of sorghum declined by 46 percent from Ush 1,300 per kg in June, the peak of the lean season in agro‐pastoral and agricultural areas, to Ush 700 in August (Figure 4). Further price declines are expected at the peak harvest in September. Household food stocks are expected to last through December 2011. Source: UNWFP Although the pastoral areas of Amudat, Moroto and Kaabong districts (Karamoja) received slightly below‐average to below‐average rainfall, rainfall was sufficient to support opportunistic crop production in these areas. Harvesting has started in these areas as well, and average yields of maize and sorghum are expected. The rains were also sufficient to fill valley dams, which are water reservoirs for livestock, and Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 UGANDA Food Security Outlook Update September 2011 maintain good pasture conditions for livestock. The current light rains are expected to continue through early October when the dry season is expected to begin. These will maintain favorable rangeland conditions, ensuring availability of milk for households. Scarcity of pasture in northwestern Kenya has caused Turkana pastoralists to migrate to Kaabong district, three months earlier than normal. No conflict with the host communities have been reported because pasture and water are adequate. The intervention by the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industries and Fisheries, together with partners, to carry out vaccination against foot and mouth disease (FMD) has resulted in the partial lifting of the quarantine in Nakapiripirit and Amudat districts. This allows households to sell livestock for slaughter only within the districts. However, it is expected that if these districts remain disease‐free for the next three months, the ban will be lifted completely. This would enable pastoral households to sell their livestock to access grain when the lean season starts in December. Overall, the improved access to food has improved the food security status of the population in pastoral and agro‐pastoral areas and minimal food insecurity is expected during the outlook period. Seasonal calendar and critical events timeline Source: FEWS NET Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3