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Topic6.ppt - Murdoch University


									    Chapter 7
Managing Emerging

   Paula Goulding
             Chapter Outline
 Importance of understanding emerging
 Should organization be pioneer, leader, or
 Best time to adopt new technology
 How to introduce and appropriate apply new
         Technology Life Cycle
 Emerging Technology
  – Technology considered innovation
  – Still developing in capability/capacity
 Pacing Technology
  – Technology is growing in acceptance
 Key Technology
  – Provides competitive differential
 Base Technology
  – Final phase of life cycle
  – Required technology
     Adoption of Technology
 Innovators (Technology enthusiasts)
  – Willing to take higher risks
 Early Adopters (Visionaries)
  – More visionary
 Early Majority (Pragmatists)
  – Wait for more assurance for success of technology
 Late Majority (Conservatives)
  – Must adopt technology to stay current
 Laggards (Skeptics)
  – True skeptics; must adopt to stay in the market
  Moore’s Product Provider View of
      Technology Innovation
 Early Market                   Tornado
  – Look to be first with new     – Mass-market adoption
    paradigm                     Main Street
 Chasm                           – Aftermarket development
  – Early market interest         – Flesh out potential
                                 End of Life
 Bowling Alley                   – Ignored and presumed in
  – Niche-based adoption in         original model
    advance of general            – Enable new paradigms
    marketplace                     to come to market
                    Implications of Not Keeping
                      Pace with Technology
                                           Other, 3%
                               Would not
                                                  Lack of control in
                              happen, 3%
                                                    running the
                                                   business, 7%
    Loss of
competitive edge,
     58%                                               Would not be in
                                                       business, 13%

                                                 Increased cost of
                                                  production, 16%
Strategies for Technology Development
Diffusion Curve
Managing Change
Learning S-Curve
      Three Strategic Postures
 Shape the future
  – Play leadership role in establishing how industry
 Adopt to the future
  – Recognizing and capturing opportunities in
    existing markets
 Reserve right to play
  – Invest sufficiently to stay in the game
  – Avoid premature commitments
Innovations Influence on Rate of Adoption
 Relative Advantage
  – Considers degree innovation is perceived to be better
 Compatibility
  – Higher level of compatibility with values and needs
 Complexity
  – If difficult to learn, use, or implement will slow rate
 Trialability
  – If easily experimental, will have better adoption
 Observability
  – Degree to which innovation can be seen
 Increasing Returns of Adoption
 Learning by using
  – Increase in benefits technology brings as
    adopters gain experience and knowledge
 Positive network externalities
  – Greater the number of users, greater the benefit
 Technological interrelatedness
  – Existence of compatible products that will
    increase larger base of adopters
  Characteristics of Early Adopters

 Ability to amortize costs of learning
 Ability to acquire any given amount of new
  knowledge with less effort
 Higher level of initial knowledge about given
                                        Assimilation Gap

Source: Fichman, Robert G., Kemerer, Chris F. The Illusory Diffusion of Innovation: An Examination of Assimilation Gaps, Information Systems Research, Vol. 10, No. 3, September 1999.
 Identifying Emerging Technologies
 What Can Happen?
  – Keep abreast of technologies being developed
 What Will Happen?
  – Engineering hurdles may exist
 What Should Happen?
  – Consideration of social, political, and ethical
 How Will It Happen?
  – R&D may envision product differently than actual
    application of it
 Inhibitors to Emerging Technology

 Delayed participation
 Sticking with the familiar
 Reluctance to fully commit
 Lack of persistence
   Human Resource Considerations
 Availability of Talent
  – Best personnel to evaluate technology
 Resource Allocation
  – Dedicated resources for evaluation and
 Motivation
  – Project failure/success is a possibility
 Knowledge Management
  – Sharing of lessons learned
  – Utilize outside consultants
  – Protect new knowledge for competitive advantage
         Technology Scanning
 Keeping abreast of developments in technology
  – Books and Periodicals
  – Formal Studies
  – Personal Contacts
  – Professional Organizations/Workshops/Conventions
  – R & D Organizations
  – State and Federal Departments
  – Universities
  – Vendors and Consultants
  – Early Adopters
  Factors for Successful Introduction
1. Identify problem and opportunity that
   technology addresses
2. Identify and empower a champion
3. Create cross-functional, dedicated,
   accountable team
4. Build supportive environment for introduction
   of technology
5. Identify and address associated risks
6. Manage the project
      Technology Assessment Process
1. Scoping
  •    Establish scope/domain of technology search
2. Searching
  •    Screen technologies
  •    Search for signs/viability of emerging technology
3. Evaluating
  •    Identify/prioritize technologies
  •    Evaluate based on abilities, needs, competitive
4. Committing
  •    How it should be pursued and implemented
 Selling Technology to Senior Executives
 Sell business solution     Manage expectations
 Identify value to          Start small to mitigate
  organization                risks
 Compare new to             Look to other industries
  existing technologies       for changes
 Consider range of          Understand
  alternatives                iterative/evolutionary
 Create champions            nature
  throughout organization    Underpromise
                             Be honest
           Prioritize and Focus
   Prototype, demo, and show users
   Be intimate with business drivers
   Understand business requirements
   Highlight benefits
   Weigh risks
   Identify those that enable new business
         Prioritize and Focus
 Identify those that are easily integrated
 Measure risks and ability to absorb
 Understand organizational culture
 Set aside money for changes
    Developing the Business Case
   Identify business need
   How does it fit in current priorities
   Identify areas to be impacted
   Benefits to/impact on bottom line
   Competitive landscape
   Identify assumptions and justify
    Developing the Business Case
   Utilize proof of concepts/prototype
   Add validity to proof of concept
   Evaluate implementation options
   Evaluate fit
   Feedback
   Identify project champion
When to Deploy Emerging Technologies

 Look at industry trends
 Benchmark
 Evaluate when risk of not doing it is greater
  than doing it
 Pilot technology to validate proof of
 Utilize outside consultants to evaluate
       Lessons from the Past
 Expert predictions are fallible
 Timing is relevant
 Iterate and review frequently
 Which new technologies become adopted is
  hard to predict
 Consequences of adoptions take long time
  to become evident
             Laws of Technology
 Bigger Computers Are Better
  – Grosch’s Law
 Smaller Computers Are Better
  – Moore
 Connected Computers Are Better
  – Metcalfe
 Machines May Leap, but Programs Creep
  – Wirth
 Networks Will Triple Every Year
  – Gilder

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