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					                                           A Weekly Update from SMC
2011: Issue 286, Week: 3rd - 6th October    (For private circulation only)




WISE M NEY



                                                                         Brand smc 112
                                                                            From The Desk Of Editor
Contents
Equity                                                                4-7   Germany parliament approved the reforms to the European Financial Stability Facility
Derivatives                                                           8-9   (EFSF) giving it more power so that it offers credit lines in case of the problem in real
                                                                            economy. But it is still to be seen how European Union along with IMF view the Greece
Commodity                                                           10-13
                                                                            situation. Greece is expected to run out of money by 10th October, if it is not able to
Currency                                                              14    secure the next €8 billion tranche to pay its bill next month. Chinese economy is
IPO                                                                 15-16   showing signs of weakness. As per the HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics
Mutual Fund                                                         17-18   readings the manufacturing in the region contracted for the third consecutive month.
                                                                            Back at home, the food inflation for the week ending 17th September came higher at
EDITORIAL STAFF                                                             9.13% from the previous week level of 8.84% due to the higher prices of pulses and
Editor                                      Saurabh Jain                    vegetables. The eight core industries having combined weight of 37.90% in the Index
Executive Editor                            Jagannadham Thunuguntla         of Industrial Production (IIP) recorded a growth of 3.5% from the previous month
+Editorial Team                                                             growth rate of 7.5%. Out of the eight core industries, coal and natural gas recorded
Nikhil Mehta                                Dr. R.P. Singh
                                                                            negative growth of (-)15.3% and (-)5.3% respectively. The reason for the negative
Nitin Murarka                               Kunal Sharma
Vandana Bharti                              Tejas Seth                      growth in coal is because of lower production by Coal India which accounts for 85% of
Sandeep Joon                                Dinesh Joshi                    the domestic production. And that of negative growth in natural gas is because of
Vineet Sood                                 Shitij Gandhi
Dhirender Singh Bisht                       Subhranil Dey                   lower production from Reliance KG D6 basin.
Parminder Chauhan                           Asmita Satyendra
                                                                            The government said that it would increase the market borrowings by `52,872 crore to
Ajay Lakra                                  Mudit Goyal
Rahul Kumar                                 Reena Srivastava                `2.2 lac crore in the second half of the fiscal as it expects the shortfall of `35,000
Sumit Kukreja                               Neha Minocha kapoor             crore in small-saving accounts. The total market borrowing for the fiscal would now
Content Editor                              Kamla Devi
                                                                            be at least 12.5% higher that the budget estimates to `4.7 lac crore. Though
Graphic Designer                            Pramod Chhimwal
Research Executive                          Simmi Chibber                   government has indicated that the increase in borrowing would not affect the fiscal
                                                                            deficit projections pegged at 4.6% of GDP but there are fair chances of slippages on
REGISTERED OFFICES:
11 / 6B, Shanti Chamber, Pusa Road, New Delhi 110005.
                                                                            account of lower net tax revenue collections that grew by only 1.1% in the period of
Tel: 91-11-30111000, Fax: 91-11-25754365                                    April to July and higher subsidies on account of rising crude prices. In the period from
MUMBAI OFFICE:                                                              April to June, the fiscal deficit has already shot up to 55.4% of the budget estimate
Dheeraj Sagar, 1st Floor, Opp. Goregaon sports Club, Link Road
Malad (West), Mumbai 400064                                                 while revenue deficits have now gone to 63.4%.
Tel: 91-22-67341600, Fax: 91-22-28805606
                                                                            The increase in borrowing program sent bond yields higher on fears of further rise in
KOLKATA OFFICE:
18,Rabindra Sarani, Poddar Court, Gate No-4, 4th & 5th Floor,               interest rate and competition of funds from corporate and individuals. However, it is
Kolkata-700001                                                              believed that since the economy is showing signs of weakness and credit offtake is not
Tel : 91-33-39847000/39801300, Fax No : 91-33-39847004
AHMEDABAD OFFICE :                                                          picking up, the borrowing programme would sail smoothly. As of now, banks Statutory
3rd Floor, Sun City House, Besides Pantaloon, Opp Kotak Bank,               Liquidity Ratio stands at close to 30.95% as against the requirement of 24% of total
MithaKhali Six Road, Ahmedabad - 380009.
Tel: +91 79 26424222 to 233, 40095400 to 404                                deposits.
10/A, 4th Floor, Kalapurnam Building, Near Municipal Market,                The global worries like flattering growth in U.S., persisting European region debt
C G Road, Ahmedabad-380009, Gujarat
Tel : 91-79-26424801 - 05, 40049801 - 03                                    crisis, moderating growth in emerging nations like China and domestic worries like
CHENNAI OFFICE:                                                             high inflation, rising interest rates, expectations of lower growth in corporate profits,
2nd Floor, Mookambika Complex, 4, Lady Desikachari Road,
Mylapore, Chennai-600004
                                                                            moderating industrial growth, fiscal slippage, etc are some of the key factors that are
Tel: 91- 44 - 39109100 Fax: 91- 44 - 39109111                               weighing on the markets.
SECUNDERABAD OFFICE:
206, 3rd Floor, above CMR Exclusive, Bhuvana Towers, S.D.Road,
                                                                            On the commodity front, Germany vote in favor of relief packages, recent correction
Secunderabad - 500003                                                       in dollar index amid better durable GDP data of US offered much needed support to
Tel: 91-40-30780298/99, 39109536
                                                                            some commodities. Expiry of September contract of base metals kept the investors on
COCHIN OFFICE:
212, D.D. Vyapar Bhawan, K P Valom Road, Kadavanthra, Erunakulam            toes. But it is too early to say that commodities prices will consolidate at current
(Cochin), Kerala - 682020                                                   levels. German vote and US GDP are not enough to bring back the investors'
Tel: 91-484-2312281-83, 3928894-95, Fax: 91-484-2312281
DUBAI OFFICE:
                                                                            confidence on track; it is still waning. However, short covering in most of the
312, Belshalat Building, Al Karama, Dubai, P.O. Box 117210, U.A.E.          commodities is expected but upside is limited here. It is advisable to the investors to
Tel: 97143963120, Mobile : 971502612483
Fax : 9714 3963122
                                                                            opt for small profit as trend is still vague. Bullions may see further upside, however if
Email ID : pankaj@smccomex.com                                              rupee appreciates it may result in some wild movements. ISM manufacturing of US,
           smcdmcc@gmail.com
                                                                            Australia, Japan, ECB and UK interest rate decision, Euro zone PPI, Euro zone retail
Printed and Published on behalf of                                          sales, employment data of US and Canada may offer some direction to the
Mr. Saurabh Jain @ Publication Address                                      commodities prices in coming days.
11/6B, Shanti Chamber, Pusa Road, New Delhi-110005
Website: www.smcindiaonline.com
Investor Grievance : smc@smcindiaonline.com

Printed at: KOZMIC STYLE OFFSET
D-137, Okhla Industrial Area, Phase-I, New Delhi - 110020 (India)                                                                                                 (Saurabh Jain)
Ph.: +91-11-46251190, Email: Kozmic@consigliori.org
                                                                            The News letter is scheduled to be released on every Friday. The data is based on Thursday closing prices.
   NEWS                                                                                      TREND SHEET

                                 DOMESTIC NEWS                                         STOCKS              CLOSING TREND               DATE           RATE         S1       R1       S2      R2      CL.
Economy
                                                                                                             PRICE                    TREND          TREND                                            S/L
·   Food inflation jumped to 9.13% for the week ended September 17 from 8.84%
    in the previous week, mainly due to a rise in prices of potatoes, pulses and                                                    CHANGED CHANGED
    poultry.
                                                                                       SENSEX                16698        DOWN 06.05.11 18519                             17200            17700 18100
Oil & Gas
·   GAIL India had agreed to buy a 20% stake in one of Carrizo Oil & Gas Inc's shale   S&P NIFTY              5015        DOWN 06.05.11                5551                5250            5400 5500
    gas assets in the United States and would invest a total of $300 million over      CNX IT                 5746        DOWN 06.05.11                6627                5650            5900 6050
    the next five years.
Engineering                                                                            CNX BANK               9653        DOWN 20.05.11 10664                             10000            10500 10800
·   GVK Power and Infrastructure, the flagship company of Hyderabad-based              ACC                    1090          UP       28.07.11          1022       1040             1020              1000
    GVK group, is planning to have 7,500 MW thermal power generation capacity
                                                                                       BHARTIAIRTEL             375       DOWN 18.08.11                 391                395               405      410
    by FY17.
    GVK
· Power & Infrastructure said its unit has won a bid to develop a four-lane            BHEL                   1666        DOWN 21.04.11                2060                1720            1780 1820
    section of Mumbai-Agra national highway in the state of Madhya Pradesh.
                                                                                       CIPLA                    288       DOWN 28.07.11                 308                290               298      305
·   BEML has bagged huge orders totaling to `230 Crores during August and
    September 2011 from M/s. Central Coalfields Limited (CCL) and Northern             DLF                      224         UP      29.09.11            224        212              206               200
    Coalfields Limited (NCL), both subsidiaries of Coal India Limited. The Orders      HINDALCO                 134       DOWN 13.05.11                 198                151               159      165
    are for supply of 100 Ton and 60 Ton Dump Trucks.
Realty/ Construction                                                                   ICICI BANK               891       DOWN 10.06.11                1036                910               940      970
·   Punj Lloyd Group had bagged a contract worth `1,195 crore from Haldia              INFOSYS                2551        DOWN 15.04.11                2990                2450             2550 2650
    Energy, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Calcutta Electric Supply Company
    (CESC) for its 600 MW thermal power project.                                       ITC                      202         UP       04.03.11           172        199               193              188
Power                                                                                  L&T                    1370        DOWN 04.08.11                1649                1520            1570 1610
·   NTPC along with Ceylon Electricity Board has incorporated 'Trincomalee
                                                                                       MARUTI                 1105        DOWN 18.08.11                1159                1130            1170 1200
    Power Company', a joint venture that would set up a 500 MW coal-based
    power plant in Sri Lanka. The plant, which is estimated to see an investment       NTPC                     168       DOWN 18.08.11                 174                175               180      182
    of up to $700 million, would come up at Sampur in Trincomalee.
                                                                                       ONGC                     269       DOWN 20.05.11                 274                275               285      293
·   NTPC has tied up a syndicated loan worth `2,341 crore from a consortium of
    Indian banks for its 390-MW Muzaffarpur thermal power project in Bihar.            RELIANCE                 808       DOWN 28.04.11                 972                810               840      860
·   Power Grid Corporation of India (PGCIL) had commissioned the transmission          SAIL                     110       DOWN 29.10.10                 194                116               122      130
    system for two units of the Mundra Ultra Mega Power Project (UMPP) in
                                                                                       NOTES:
    Gujarat. The 4,000 MW Mundra project, being developed by Tata Power,               1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name
    would be the first UMPP to start power generation in the country.                     of "Morning Mantra ".
                                                                                       2) S1 & S2 indicate first support & second support respectively & R1 & R2 indicate first resistance and second
Automobile                                                                                resistance respectively.
·   Mahindra & Mahindra launched its global sports utility vehicle, XUV500, at an      3) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength
                                                                                          coming into the stock. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and
    introductory price between `10.8 lakh and `11.95 lakh (ex-showroom,                   taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.
    Delhi).
·   Ashok Leyland had bagged an order worth `178 crore ($36.56 million) from              FORTHCOMING EVENTS
    the government of Tanzania to supply 723 trucks, buses and special
    application vehicles.                                                              Ex Date             SYMBOL                         PURPOSE
Metal                                                                                  03/10/2011 BHEL                                    FACE VALUE SPLIT FROM `10/- TO `2/-
·   Jindal Steel and Power (JSPL) planned to invest about `1,00,000 crore in
    Jharkhand to set up two steel plants of 11 million tonne annual capacity by        04/10/2011 PVR                                     SPECIAL INTERIM DIVIDEND
    2016, along with 6,600 MW power plants.                                            05/10/2011 CARBORUNIV                              FACE VALUE SPLIT FROM `2/- TO `1/-
·   National Aluminium Company (Nalco) planned to diversify into nuclear               05/10/2011 RENUKA                                  INTERIM DIVIDEND
    power generation by investing `11,450 crore jointly with Nuclear Power
    Corporation of India in a project.                                                 07/10/2011 GTL                                     DIVIDEND-`1/- PER SHARE
Gems & Jewellery                                                                       07/10/2011 PATELENG                                AGM AND DIVIDEND `1/- PER SHARE
·   Gitanjali Gems plans to invest `150 crore to set up 50 stores under its new        19/10/2011 PANTALOONR                              DIVIDEND-`0.90 PER SHARE
    multi-brand jewellery format 'Jewel Souk'. The company will retail major
    jewellery brands, fashion jewellery products and watches at Jewel Souk,            20/10/2011 INFY                                    INTERIM DIVIDEND
    Rahul Vira, head of retail, Gitanjali Lifestyle.                                             TE
                                                                                       MEETING DA SYMBOL                                  PURPOSE
                                                                                       04/10/2011 NOIDATOLL                               INTERIM DIVIDEND
                           INTERNATIONAL NEWS
                                                                                       10/10/2011 CHEMFALKAL                              FINANCIAL RESULTS
 US
· initial jobless claims fell by 37,000 to 391,000 from the previous week's
 revised figure of 428,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to edge             10/10/2011 TTKPRESTIG                              UN-AUDITED FINANCIAL RESULTS
 down to 420,000 from the 423,000 originally reported for the previous week.           12/10/2011 INFY                                    RESULTS/DIVIDEND
 The
· U.S. economy grew more than initially reported in the second quarter.
                                                                                       17/10/2011 HDFC                                    UN-AUDITED FINANCIAL RESULTS
 The 1.3 percent growth in U.S. gross domestic product, while still weak, was
 0.3 percentage points stronger than the 1 percent growth previously                   18/10/2011 CHAMBLFERT                              UN-AUDITED FINANCIAL RESULTS
 reported. Most economists had predicted a somewhat smaller upward                     19/10/2011 BAJFINANCE                              UN-AUDITED FINANCIAL RESULTS
 revision to 1.2 percent.
                                                                                       19/10/2011 BAJAJFINSV                              UN-AUDITED FINANCIAL RESULTS
 US
· consumer confidence index edged up to 45.4 in September from a revised
 45.2 in August. Economists had been expecting the index to climb to 46.5              19/10/2011 HDFCBANK                                FINANCIAL RESULTS
 from the 44.5 originally reported for the previous month.                             20/10/2011 FAGBEARING                              UN-AUDITED FINANCIAL RESULTS
·Industrial production in Japan was up a seasonally adjusted 0.8 percent on
                                                                                       20/10/2011 BAJAJ-AUTO                              UN-AUDITED FINANCIAL RESULTS
 month in August. That was well shy of forecasts for a gain of 1.5 percent
 following the 0.4 percent increase in July.                                           20/10/2011 BAJAJHLDNG                              UN-AUDITED FINANCIAL RESULTS



                                                                                                                                                                                                         4
        INDIAN INDICES (% Change)                                                                                                                SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)
4.00                                                                                                                                     8.00
                                 3.32                                                                                                                                                                                             7.08
              3.03
3.00                                                                                                                                     6.00

                                                                                                    1.84                                                                                                                                                                      4.47
2.00
                                                                                                                                         4.00                                                          3.44                                             3.48
                                                                                                                                                     2.74       2.73
1.00
                                                                                   0.21                                                  2.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    1.01
0.00                                                                                                                                                                                                                  0.52

                                                                                                                                         0.00
-1.00
                                               -0.92
                                                                                                                                         -2.00
-2.00                                                          -1.41                                                                                                                                                                          -1.87
                                                                                                                                                                           -2.61
              Nifty           Sensex         BSE Midcap        BSE    Nifty Junior                S&P CNX
                                                                                                                                         -4.00
                                                             Smallcap                               500

  SMC Trend                                                                                                                              -6.00
                                                                                                                                                                                         5.28

   Nifty Sensex                BSE Midcap          BSE Smallcap             Nifty Junior            S&P CNX 500                                   Auto Index   Bankex    Cap Goods      Cons           FMCG     Healthcare      IT Index      Metal   Oil & Gas    Power     Realty
                                                                                                                                                                           Index       Durable         Index      Index                       Index     Index      Index     Index
                                                                                                                                                                                        Index


        GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)
                                                                                                                                                               SMC Trend
                                                                                      * closing price as on 22nd Sep.
10.00
                                                                                                                                                                 Auto    Cap Goods                               FMCG                       IT           Oil & Gas
                                                                                      ** closing price as on 28th Sep.
                                                                                                                                                                 Bank    Cons Durable                            Healthcare                 Metal        Power
                                                                                                                                                                 Realty
 8.00                                                                                                                     7.74




 6.00                                                                                                                                            INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY (Equity) (` Crore)

 4.00                  3.55                                                                                                                400.00                                                                                                              251.80
                                                                                                          2.57
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              194.50
                                    2.11                                                                                                   200.00                                                              37.10             88.80
                                                 1.65                       1.94                                                                                            8.60
 2.00
                                                                                                                                                 0.00
                                                             0.35
 0.00                                                                                                                                     -200.00
          -0.10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           -156.90
                                                                                                                                          -400.00
-2.00
                                                                                                                                          -600.00
                                                                                          -2.79
                                                                                                                                          -800.00
-4.00
         Nasdaq      Dow Jones     S&P 500      Nikkei*   Strait Times    Hang Seng** Shanghai       FTSE 100            CAC 40
         Comp.                                                                         Comp.                                             -1000.00
                                                                                                                                                                                        -1006.80
                                                                                                                                         -1200.00
                      SMC Trend                                                                                                                                -1189.80
                        Nasdaq                 Nikkei                    Hang Seng                FTSE 100                               -1400.00
                        Dow jones              Strait times              Shanghai                 CAC 40                                                               Friday                      Monday                             Tuesday                     Wednesday
                        S&P 500

                                                                                                                                                                                                               FII Activity                MF Activity
                                                                                                  Up        Down             Sideways

        BSE SENSEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)                                                                                               NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

 15.00                                                                                                                                   15.00        13.27
           12.93
                                                                                                                                                                  10.99
                       10.22                                                                                                                                                    9.57            9.08
                                                                                                                                         10.00
 10.00                              9.19        8.97                                                                                                                                                           7.18
                                                          6.95
                                                                                                                                           5.00
  5.00

                                                                                                                                           0.00

  0.00
                                                                                                                                 -0.47    -5.00                                                                                                                              -3.30
                                                                                                                 -1.74                                                                                                                                            -5.63
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      -5.86
                                                                                                  -3.30
 -5.00                                                                              -4.21                                                                                                                                                  -7.68
                                                                                                                                         -10.00
                                                                         -5.69
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             -10.58

-10.00                                                                                                                                   -15.00
            DLF          JP      Tata          Infosys     TCS       Larsen & Coal India Sterlite Hero Bajaj Auto                                      DLF          JP      Tata            Infosys            TCS           Reliance Sesa Goa Reliance Larsen &            Sterlite
                     Associates Motors                                Toubro              Inds. Motocorp                                                        Associates Motors                                            Capital            Infra.   Toubro              Inds.



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 5
                                                Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis
   DIVIS LABORATORIES LIMITED
Business Profile                                             opportunities. Company continue to focus on its                                                                     VALUE PARAMETERS
Divis Laboratories Limited, an Active Pharma                 domain of capability in line with its strategy to work
Ingredients (APIs) & Intermediates company was               with innovators playing a complementary role and                                                              Current Mkt.Price (`)                         744.00
incorporated in the year 1990. Divi is engaged in            non-compete model with its generic customers.                                                                 Face Value (`)                                  2.00
manufacture of generic APIs, custom synthesis of             It exports about 75% of its sales to advanced
                                                             ·                                                                                                             52 Week High/Low                     842.50 / 582.05
active ingredients and other specialty chemicals,            markets in Europe and North America. It is also                                                               M.Cap (` Cr.)                                9872.88
such as peptides and nutraceuticals. The company's           planning to acquire biotechnology research                                                                    EPS (`)                                        34.05
main manufacturing and research and development              companies in India and abroad. The move is to                                                                 P/E Ratio (times)                              21.85
facilities are located in the State of Andhra Pradesh,       venture into the biosimilar market. It has `500                                                               P/B Ratio (times)                               5.40
India. It has two wholly owned subsidiaries viz., M/s.       crore for funding acquisitions.                                                                               Dividend Yield (%)                              1.34
Divis Laboratories (USA) Inc., in USA and M/s. Divi's        Divi's Laboratories net profit rose 18.89% to
                                                             ·                                                                                                             Stock Exchange                                   BSE
Laboratories Europe AG in Switzerland.                       `102.59 crore in the quarter ended June 2011 as
                                                             against `86.29 crore during the previous quarter
Investment Rationale                                         ended June 2010. Sales rose 36.57% to `358.55                                                                    % OF SHARE HOLDING
· company has taken up implementation of a
The                                                          crore in the quarter ended June 2011 as against Rs
new DSN SEZ project at an estimated cost of `200             262.54 crore during the previous quarter ended
crores to cater to new opportunities in generics as          June 2010. The company made a tax provision of
well as custom synthesis as company visualized               `27 crores for the quarter as the company's EOU
full utilisation of existing capacities. During              Unit has now come under regular tax provisions
FY2011, company spent an amount of Rs.74 crores              and the first SEZ Unit is eligible for 50% tax
on this Project and a further amount of Rs. 89               exemption.
crores towards enhancing capacities and                      Stock Chart
upgrading utilities at the existing Units, in order          860                                                                                                     860


to conform to best environment practices and                 840
                                                             820
                                                                                                                                                                     840
                                                                                                                                                                     820


zero discharge of effluents.                                 800
                                                             780
                                                                                                                                                                     800
                                                                                                                                                                     780
                                                             760                                                                                                     760                                                  ` in cr
The
· company has also launched several new generic              740                                                                                                     740


products like Tamsulosin, Dexlansoprazole,                   720
                                                             700
                                                                                                                                                                     720
                                                                                                                                                                     700
                                                                                                                                                                           Particulars     QE Jun’11 QE Jun’10 Var.(%)   TTM
Valsartan, Capecitabine, Desloratadine,                      680
                                                             660
                                                                                                                                                                     680
                                                                                                                                                                     660
                                                                                                                                                                           Total Income      374.96    274.27   36.70    1448.80
Quetiapine and Telmisartan -which are expected to            640
                                                             620
                                                                                                                                                                     640
                                                                                                                                                                     620   Net Sales         358.55    262.54   36.60    1401.44
gather volumes in future.                                    600                                                                                                     600
                                                             580                                                                                                     580   Expenditure       230.81    166.86   38.30     877.80
Divis
· continues to work towards optimizing the                   9000
                                                             8000
                                                                                                                                                                    9000
                                                                                                                                                                    8000   PBDIT             144.15    107.41   34.20     571.00
capacities created at its multi-purpose                      7000
                                                             6000
                                                                                                                                                                    7000
                                                                                                                                                                    6000


manufacturing facilities and also creating
                                                             5000
                                                             4000
                                                             3000
                                                                                                                                                                    5000
                                                                                                                                                                    4000
                                                                                                                                                                    3000
                                                                                                                                                                           PBDT              143.93    107.19   34.30     569.14
                                                             2000                                                                                                   2000

additional capacities to cater to growing business           1000
                                                             x100

                                                                        November December 2011   February March   April   May   June   July   August   September
                                                                                                                                                                    1000
                                                                                                                                                                   x100
                                                                                                                                                                           PAT               102.59     86.29   18.90     451.87

   SRF LIMITED
Business Profile                                                     wind power generation.                                                                                      VALUE PARAMETERS
SRF Limited is engaged in the manufacture of                 SRF
                                                             · has obtained board approval for setting up the
                                                                                                                                                                           Current Mkt.Price (`)                          309.60
chemical based industrial intermediates. The                 company's second hydrofluorocarbon (HFC)-134
company operates in three business segments:                 plant with an annual capacity of 15,000 tonnes in its                                                         Face Value (`)                                  10.00
Technical Textiles Business (TTB), Chemicals and             Chemical Complex in Dahej. The project is                                                                     52 Week High/Low                     444.30 / 270.05
Polymers Business (CPB) And Packaging Films Business         expected to be commissioned at an estimated cost                                                              M.Cap (` Cr.)                                 1858.53
(PFB). It is a global entity with operations in 8            of `365 crore. The new HFC plant is scheduled to
                                                                                                                                                                           EPS (`)                                         83.00
locations viz India, Dubai, South Africa and Thailand.       become operational by January 2013. The
Building on its in-house R&D facilities for Technical        expansion in the Chemicals and the Packaging Films                                                            P/E Ratio (times)                                 3.73
Textiles Business and Chemicals Business, the                businesses is part of its overall strategy and ongoing                                                        P/B Ratio (times)                                 1.17
company strives to stay ahead in business through            efforts to reduce dependence on nylon tyre cord.                                                              Dividend Yield (%)                                4.56
innovations in operations and product development.           During the quarter ended June 2011, it reported
                                                             ·                                                                                                             Stock Exchange                                     BSE
                                                             51% rise in its net profit to `82.81 crore on the back
Investment Rationale                                         a robust showing by its chemicals business. The
                                                             chemical-based industrial-intermediates firm                                                                     % OF SHARE HOLDING
The
· board of SRF Ltd has approved the proposal to
set up a plant in South Africa with an investment            achieved a 35% surge in net sales at `835 crore
of `25 crore. The plant will have the capacity to            during the period. The company's operating profit
produce 5,400 tonnes of biaxially-oriented                   increased by 27% to `163.98 crore and profit before
polypropylene film a year. The plant is set to start         depreciation and tax grew by 30% to `152.76 crore.
operations from July 2013.                                   Stock Chart
The
· company plans to set up biaxially-oriented
polyethylene-terephthalate or BOPET, a polyester              440                                                                                                    440

                                                              420                                                                                                    420
film made from stretched polyethylene                         400                                                                                                    400

terephthalate with a capacity of 28,500 tonnes                380                                                                                                    380
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ` in cr
annually in Bangladesh through an 80:20 joint                 360                                                                                                    360


venture with Nitol Niloy Group, and a metalliser              340                                                                                                    340
                                                                                                                                                                           Particulars     QE Jun’11 QE Jun’10 Var.(%)   TTM
with a capacity of 7,050 tonnes annually in Thailand          320                                                                                                    320
                                                                                                                                                                           Total Income      847.87    626.86   35.30    3326.63
at a total investment of around `290 crore.                   300                                                                                                    300
                                                                                                                                                                           Net Sales         835.29    616.84   35.40    3204.51
                                                              280                                                                                                    280

· company is planning to invest `184 crore in
The                                                           260                                                                                                    260   Expenditure       674.82    490.03   37.70    2377.30
setting up a polyester yarn plant of 14,500 tonnes           1000                                                                                                   1000
                                                                                                                                                                           PBDIT             173.05    136.83   26.50     949.33
per annum. Besides, it also plans to invest `40               500                                                                                                    500
                                                                                                                                                                           PBDT              152.76    117.20   30.30     864.75
crore in dipping tyre cord plant and `92 crore for
                                                             x1000

                                                                        November December 2011   February March   April   May   June   July   August   September
                                                                                                                                                                   x1000
                                                                                                                                                                           PAT                82.81     54.78   51.20     511.47


                                                         Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1 year.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                               6
EQUITY


   HCL TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED




                                                                    The stock closed at `410.15 on 29th September 2011. It made a 52-week low at
                                                                    `360 on 26th August 2011 and 52-week high of `528.00 on 21th April 2011. The
                                                                    200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart is
                                                                    currently at `354.82.
                                                                    It went up in an upward channel and rested near 525 levels after which it
                                                                    reversed due to the impact of sharp fall in broader index. However, it managed
                                                                    to take support on its 200 EMA on the weekly charts which indicates its strength
                                                                    as it formed buying pivot with increase in the volumes. One can Buy in the range
                                                                    of 404-407 levels for a target of 455-465 levels with a closing below stop loss of
                                                                    378 levels.




   KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK LIMITED




                                                                    The stock closed at `476.40 on 29th September 2011. It made a 52-week low at
                                                                    `333 on 09th February 2011 and 52-week high of `526.55 on 14th October 2010.
                                                                    The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart
                                                                    is currently at `354.93.
                                                                    It formed inverted head and shoulder on the weekly charts but could not give a
                                                                    breakout above its neckline but the bullish momentum is still intact as it is
                                                                    trading in a range in last few weeks negating the fall in the broader index. One
                                                                    can Buy only when it gives closing above 480 levels for a target of 525-540 levels
                                                                    with a closing below stop loss of 460 levels.




  MUNDRA PORT AND SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONE LIMITED




                                                                    The stock closed at `163.95 on 29th September 2011. It made a 52-week low at
                                                                    `110 on 04th March 2011 and 52-week high of `185.25 on 07th October 2010. The
                                                                    200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart is
                                                                    currently at `141.09.
                                                                    It is in the consolidation zone from last five months and in recent time it formed
                                                                    an inverted head and shoulder formation which is bullish in nature. As we can
                                                                    see in the last week there was a huge spurt in the volumes and price there are
                                                                    chances that it will gave a breakout which will help it to reach our desired levels
                                                                    in the near term. One can Buy only when it gives closing above 170 levels for a
                                                                    target of 210-215 levels with a closing below stop loss of 150 levels.




Charts by Spider Software India Ltd

                                      Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months
                                                                                                                                                   7
DERIVATIVES
     WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET
  Nifty has average rollover of 60% which is below last three month average rollover .Banking, Metals and Telecom sectors has seen short rollover whereas defensive
  sectors like Parma and FMCG has seen long rollover indicating defensive buying interest. Nifty saw a sharp bounce-back from 4720 levels however; it was unable to
  take out the crucial resistance zone of 5180-5200. On the options front, volatility has increased considerably as the VIX crossed 30%, which is well above its long-
  term average, indicating volatile trades ahead with a negative bias. Currently, the highest addition of open interest is in the 4800 put (53 lakh shares) and the 5200
  call (43 lakh shares). The overall market open interest dropped by 20% in the opening of October expiry compared to previous expiry. Hereafter, the market is
  expected to remain in the range of 4800- 5100 levels in the short term. Technically, the Index is trading below all its moving averages, indicating bearish sentiment.
  The put-call ratio of open interest closed at 1.53 indicating short-term caution. The options data imply that markets may remain volatile in the near term. The
  implied volatility (IV) of call options closed at 28.90% for the week, whereas it closed at 29.09% for puts. Nifty VIX had picked up during the week. It is indication of
  instability in the short term. However, in our view, currently, the Index may continue to face stiff resistance around 5070-5100 levels, and is likely to remain
  sideways-to-bearish in the near term. Any sustenance below the 4,900 level will intensify selling pressure.

     DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

                                 BEARISH STRATEGY                                                                  VOLATILITY BASED STRATEGY
                                  TCS                                                                                 DLF                                                    BHEL
                                  Buy Oct. 1020 PUT 35.75                                                             Buy Oct. 230. CALL 5.75                                Buy Oct. 1650. CALL 53.50
                                  Sell Oct. 1000 PUT 28.00                                                            Buy Oct. 210. PUT 12.00                                Buy Oct. 1600. PUT 55.10
    OPTION
    STRATEGY                                                                                                          Lot size: 1000                                         Lot size: 125
                                  Lot size: 250                                                                       Upside BEP: 247.75                                     Upside BEP: 1758.60
                                  BEP: 1012.25                                                                        Downside BEP: 192.25                                   Downside BEP: 1491.40
                                  Max. Profit: `3062.50 (12.25*250)                                                   Max. Profit: Unlimited                                 Max. Profit: Unlimited
                                  Max. Loss: `1937.50 ( 7.75*250)                                                     Max. Loss: `17750.00 (17.75*1000)                      Max. Loss: `13575.00 (108.60*125)

                                  HINDUNILVR (OCT FUTURE)                                                             RCOM (OCT FUTURE)                                      AXISBANK (OCT FUTURE)
    FUTURE                        Buy:                  Above `344                                                    Sell:      Around `71                                  Sell:            Below `1020
    STRATEGY                      Target:               `354                                                          Target:    `67                                         Target:          `990
                                  Stop loss: `340                                                                     Stop loss: `73                                         Stop loss: `1030


     NIFTY TOTAL OPEN INTEREST (in share)                                                                                                       BASIS GAP IN NIFTY
6000000                                                                                                                                20.00
                                                        5396600                                                                                                    16.50
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  14.70
5000000                                       4752200                                                                                  15.00
                                                                                                        4360050

                                                                                                                                       10.00                                                            8.90
                                                                                                                                                                             8.05
4000000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 6.60
                                                                                                                                                           5.20
                       3220150                                            3094600 3011600                                               5.00      3.35                                         2.95
3000000                                                                          2847800                           2607300
                                   2426750
                                                                                           2238550                                      0.00
2000000     1646850
                                                       1373750     1361100                                                              -5.00
                                                                                               951400
1000000                                                                                                     632150
                      270950                 376500                                                                   268150           -10.00
                                 142050                                                                                                                                              -9.75                               -9.25
           49500
      0
                                                                                                                                       -15.00
            4400        4500       4600        4700       4800         4900        5000        5100       5200        5300
                                                         Call    Put                                                                             16-Sep   19-Sep   20-Sep   21-Sep   22-Sep   23-Sep   26-Sep   27-Sep   28-Sep   29-Sep


     FII'S ACTIVITY IN F&O IN LAST TEN SESSIONS                                                                                                 FII'S ACTIVITY IN F&O IN LAST WEEK
     (Derivative segment) `(Cr)                                                                                                                 (Derivative segment)
3000.00                                                                                      2782.78

2500.00

2000.00

1500.00                                                                                                              1273.44
                                                                                                                                           SELL
1000.00     680.22                                                                                                                        49.5%
                                              603.06
                                  390.98                                                                  415.74
 500.00                                                                                                                                                                                                                            BUY
    0.00                                                                                                                                                                                                                          50.5%
                        -43.72                                         -119.32
 -500.00
                                                         -516.79
-1000.00

-1500.00
                                                                                  -1419.66
-2000.00
            16-Sep      19-Sep    20-Sep      21-Sep     22-Sep        23-Sep      26-Sep     27-Sep      28-Sep     29-Sep



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     8
DERIVATIVES

    NIFTY & IV CHART                                                          NIFTY ANALYSIS

                                                                           Put Call Ratio Analysis :The Put-Call open interest ratio of Nifty has increased to
5200.00                                                            36.00   1.53 from 1.34. At the end of the week, the maximum stocks had a positive trend
                                                                   35.00   of change in put call open interest ratio.
                                                                   34.00
5100.00
                                                                   33.00   Implied Volatility Analysis :The Implied Volatility (IV) for Nifty futures this week
                                                                   32.00   has decreased to 28.90% from 33.46%. The IV of the stock futures has changed
5000.00                                                            31.00   this week ranging from -7.39% to 13.50%.
                                                                   30.00
                                                                           Open Interest Analysis : The open interest for the index at the end of this week
                                                                   29.00
4900.00                                                                    has decreased by 18.42% as compared to the previous week. All future stocks saw
                                                                   28.00
                                                                           changes in their open interest ranging from -24.23% to 50.36%. ONGC has the
                                                                   27.00
                                                                           maximum increase in open interest as compared to other stocks.
4800.00                                                            26.00
            23-Sep   26-Sep       27-Sep     28-Sep      29-Sep

                              Nifty Close    IV                            Statistical Analysis·
                                                                           Open      4879.00                         High       5036.25
                                                                           Low       4756.10                         Close      5019.40



    IMPORTANT INDICATORS OF NIFTY AND OTHER ACTIVE FUTURE CONTRACTS

                                            OPEN INTEREST                               PCR RATIO                         IMPLIED VOLATILITY
  SCRIPTS                 PREV.               CURRENT                %       PREV.      CURRENT                        PREV.        CURRENT
                           WEEK                WEEK               CHANGE     WEEK         WEEK          CHANGE          WEEK          WEEK        CHANGE
 BHARTI                   9332000             9144000              -2.01     0.41         0.59           0.18          38.50          34.47         -4.03

 DLF                     19411000             20880000              7.57     0.72          1.16          0.44          48.80           41.41          -7.39

 HINDALCO                15630000             19270000             23.29     0.52          0.55          0.03          50.33           50.22          -0.11

 HINDUNILVR              10898000              9533000            -12.53     0.58          0.96          0.38          27.43           25.93          -1.50

 ICICIBANK                8899000              8532250             -4.12     0.83          0.58         -0.25          41.07           38.05          -3.02

 IDEA                    12304000             12344000              0.33     0.22          0.27          0.05          43.94           37.95          -5.99

 INFY                     2385750              2218875             -6.99     0.71          0.20         -0.51          37.29           34.22          -3.07

 ITC                     17704000             13708000            -22.57     0.32          0.92          0.60          30.07           24.05          -6.02

 JPASSOCIAT              35552000             26936000            -24.23     0.68          1.26          0.58          60.38           61.08           0.70

 NTPC                    10704000             14914000             39.33     0.46          0.41         -0.05          28.66           26.38          -2.28

 ONGC                     9387000             14114000             50.36     0.42          0.38         -0.04          33.29           27.76          -5.53

 RANBAXY                  2090000              2109500              0.93     0.31          0.50          0.19          20.98           34.48         13.50

 RCOM                    18390000             21290000             15.77     0.45          0.46          0.01          70.43           68.89          -1.54

 RELIANCE                11685250             11238250             -3.83     1.01          0.57         -0.44          39.90           37.80          -2.10

 S&P CNX NIFTY         23704200              19337500             -18.42     1.34          1.53          0.19         33.46            28.90         -4.56

 SAIL                     6830000              6178000             -9.55     0.47          0.42         -0.05          42.72           48.30           5.58

 SBIN                     4557000              4961625              8.88     0.53          0.41         -0.12          38.31           37.11          -1.20

 SUZLON                  52344000             65832000             25.77     0.32          0.23         -0.09          60.78           61.21           0.43

 TATASTEEL               15769000             17057500              8.17     0.38          0.31         -0.07          37.79           35.66          -2.13

 UNITECH                 44672000             45800000              2.53     0.47          0.33         -0.14          61.33           59.93          -1.40



                                                                                                                                                           9
   SPICES                                                                           OIL AND OILSEEDS
Pepper futures may find some difficulties to maintain their position in the     Soybean futures breaking 2100 levels, may trade downside taking bearish
green territory. The tug of war to push up with buying on dips and pull         cues from spot as well as international markets. Pressure of new soybean
down for profit booking, may keep the prices range bound, maintain              crop arrivals is gradually increasing on good harvesting prospect with clear
support above 34500 levels. Indian parity in the international market           weather over Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. Investors would be eyeing
quoting cheapest @ $7,900/tonne (c&f) for Europe and $8,200/tonne               to production figures to be released by the Soybean Processors Association
(c&f) US, is attracting orders. But, exporters were offering only limited       of India in days to come. Analyzing the export scenario, FOB soymeal price
quantities because of the sidelined trend in price movement & high              fell over 10% in September to about $360 per tonne, & those levels are
fluctuations. Chilli futures (Oct) are on the road to a very gradual recovery   likely to fall further in October when the new supplies of soymeal will rise.
as the counter is eying a support at 8400 levels. Spot prices are               However, this scenario is unlikely to hurt Indian exporters, taking
maintaining a steady tone in the Guntur mandi of Andhra Pradesh. The            advantage of depreciating Indian rupee against the U.S. dollar &
upside may remain capped as the cash markets are expecting arrival of           geographical proximity also making Indian soymeal less expensive.
new crop in the Nimaad mandis by October 15. Jeera futures moving               Moreover, at present there is a good demand from Japan, Pakistan and
through a downside trajectory since past three weeks, is expected to take       Bangladesh. Abroad, US soybean futures tumbling to a 10-month low
support above 14300 levels. In the international market, Indian cumin           fueled by global economic uncertainty & seasonal harvest pressure is
seed quoted @ USD 3,150-3,200/ tonne (cnf) Singapore, lower than Syrian         adding to the lower theme, making investment funds sell soybeans, in
and Turkey's, is attracting decent export enquiries from Bangladesh,            large amount. Refined soy oil futures may fall towards 610 levels, in unison
Middle East and Southern America. Exhaustion along with profit booking          with soybeans, driven lower higher availability of stock & sidelined crude
on every rise might continue to haunt cardamom futures. This season the         oil prices. CPO futures may trade bearish tracking weak Malaysian prices.
crop progress has been good, and third round of harvesting is in full swing,    BMD CPO prices have witnessed a downfall of more than 5.50% on
which suggests there might be some further downside for this counter.           apprehensions that export demand might slump after major buyers India
Turmeric futures may trade range bound as the market undertone is weak,         and China complete purchases ahead.
threatened to prolonged supplies.
                                                                                   BULLIONS
   OTHER COMMODITIES
                                                                                Bullions can remain on volatile path as prices will try to find some support
Chana futures may continue to see some downside owing to profit booking         after the drastic meltdown witnessed recently. Gold physical demand due
from higher levels & giving a negative reaction to the imposition of special    to upcoming festive and marriage season will provide underlying support
Margin @ 10% on the long side on all running contracts of with effect from      to the prices. Traditionally in India, retail gold demand gains pace from
beginning of day Friday, September 30, 2011. Sugar futures may once             the month of August when the festival and wedding seasons start along
again witness 2700 levels as higher non-levy monthly quota seems to take a      with Diwali. South African gold miner AngloGold Ashanti will invest $250
grip on bearish sentiments. In recent development, govt. has made               million each year through 2016 to raise its Brazilian output of the precious
available 1.75 million tonnes of non-levy sugar for October, higher than 1.7    metal by two thirds. Gold prices can trade in wide range of 25000-26500 in
million tonnes it had released for September, in expectation of higher          MCX. White metal silver may also trade in wide range of 48000-58000 in near
demand during festival season. Guar seed & Guar gum futures (October)           to medium term. According to Barclays Capital “Physical demand for silver is
may remain confined within recent trading ranges as the counters have           seen around the low of $30 an ounce level, and price dips under that region
gathered some support near 4500 & 14000 levels respectively. Moreover,          are seen as a positive entry point”. When silver prices rose to near $50 earlier
crop is delayed by 1 month and there is an apprehension that carry-over         this year, industrial users had problems with the higher prices and indications
stock of about close to 2 lakh tonnes may not be sufficient for consumption     back then implied support from these users would materialize around the
as demand remains firm. So, downside of prices may be restricted. Mentha        low $30s. Further, retail demand will increase in the region of $30 with
oil futures may maintain its bullish trend on enthusiastic queries from         physically backed exchange-traded funds seeing an increase of 195 metric
pharmaceutical industries & rising quotes at spot markets. In Chandausi,        tons last week. The SPDR gold ETF holding have not seen much change as
mentha oil (68 GLC) quoted at `1,520/ kg, in Sambhal it traded at               Gold's steep correction has not yet unnerved investors.
`1,510/Kg in Rampur at `1,485/kg, in Barabanki at `1,460/kg. Wheat
futures may remain in negative zone as govt. is in determination to clamp           FERROUS AND NON-FERROUS METALS
down on inflation & any pullback would be merely corrective in nature.
                                                                                Base metals witnessed sharp plunge recently, can remain on volatile path
   ENERGY COMPLEX                                                               on mixed fundamentals. The upcoming China holidays from Monday to
                                                                                Wednesday will lead to less volatility in base metals pack. Macro economic
Crude oil prices can trade in range of 3900-4200 in MCX and $78-84 in           factors along with movement of greenback are the market moving factors
NYMEX. The movement of greenback and news emanating from euro zone              in base metals complex. Copper prices can trade in range of 325-370 in
will guide further movement in this counter. Crude inventories climbed for      MCX. China's imports of copper rose 11.0 percent to 340,398 tonnes in
the first time in four weeks in the U.S. the world's biggest user of the        August from 306,626 tonnes in the previous month. World refined copper
commodity, which accounts for about 21 percent of demand. Production            consumption exceeded production by 130,000 tonnes during the first half
capacity in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will climb        of this year compared with a deficit of 286,000 tonnes in the first six
almost 800,000 barrels a day in 2012, led by the resumption of Libyan           months of 2010.Aluminium prices can also trade in range of 104-112 on
fields. Fighting in Libya since February has reduced the availability of        domestic bourses. The Japan Aluminium Association data showed
Brent crude. The country's output fell to 45,000 barrels a day last month. In   shipments of Japanese aluminium products fell 1.5 percent in August from
his first public remarks since the Fed launched a fresh measure aimed at        a year earlier to 154,684 tonnes. Shipments of flat-rolled aluminium used
keeping down long-term borrowing costs, Bernanke indicated a willingness        in beverage cans, fell 4.6 percent from a year earlier due to the weak
to push deeper into the realm of unconventional policy if economic growth       demand. Zinc and Lead can both find support at 90 in MCX. Nickel prices
remains anemic. Natural gas prices can trade on highly volatile path in         can also trade in range of 850-970 on domestic bourses. China is expected to
range of 185-210 in MCX. Natural Gas prices are expected to remain weak         produce 440,000 tonnes of nickel this year, while consumption may rise 13
in the last quarter of this year due to lower demand as compared relative       percent to 650,000 tonnes from last year. Nickel is a major raw material in
to the production strength. The vast expansion of liquid production from        making stainless steel, with about 60 percent of nickel output worldwide
shale, producing associated gas, has shifted the gas supply curve down and      consumed by the sector. Global nickel stockpiles are now rising slightly after
to the right, cutting off the need for high-end gas resources.                  declining for over a year-and-a-half, putting pressure on prices.
COMMODITY

   TREND SHEET

EXCHANGE CONTRACT                                     CLOSING                DATE TREND                  TREND              RATE TREND                         S1             R1                     S2           R2              CLOSING
                                                         PRICE*                CHANGED                                          CHANGED                                                                                       STOP/LOSS
NCDEX           GUAR SEED (OCT)                         4614.00                 25.03.11                     UP                   2978.00            4250.00                  -             4150.00                -               4050.00
NCDEX           SOYABEAN (OCT)                          2124.00                 17.06.11                  DOWN                    2281.00                  -             2450.00                 -            2470.00              2580.00
NCDEX           JEERA (OCT)                           15083.00                  18.08.11                  DOWN                  15517.00                   -            16000.00                 -           16500.00             17000.00
NCDEX           PEPPER (OCT)                          35290.00                  25.08.11                     UP                 32900.00            35000.00                  -            34000.00                -              33000.00
NCDEX           RED CHILLI (OCT)                        8560.00                 27.05.11                  DOWN                    8342.00                  -             8600.00                 -            9000.00              9500.00
NCDEX           RM SEEDS (OCT)                          2863.00                 17.06.11                  DOWN                    2861.00                  -             3000.00                 -            3040.00              3170.00
MCX             MENTHA OIL (OCT)                        1426.00                 21.07.11                     UP                   1140.00            1260.00                  -             1180.00                -               1130.00
MCX             CARDAMOM (OCT)                            700.00                08.02.11                  DOWN                    1361.50                  -              820.00                 -             870.00                900.00
MCX             SILVER (DEC)                         51245.00                                                                                                          SIDEWAYS
MCX             GOLD (DEC)                           26011.00                                                                                                          SIDEWAYS
MCX             COPPER (NOV)                              355.65                06.05.11                  DOWN                      398.60                 -              400.00                 -             420.00                440.00
MCX             LEAD (OCT)                                  99.75               06.05.11                  DOWN                      103.25                 -              122.00                 -             127.00                135.00
MCX             ZINC (OCT)                                  94.55               06.05.11                  DOWN                        95.90                -              112.00                 -             114.00                118.00
MCX             NICKEL(OCT)                               916.90                20.05.11                  DOWN                    1067.30                  -             1050.00                 -            1100.00              1250.00
MCX             CRUDE OIL (OCT)                         4076.00                 22.09.11                  DOWN                    4018.00                  -             4250.00                 -            4350.00              4500.00
MCX             NATURAL GAS (OCT)                         187.50                04.08.11                  DOWN                      177.30                 -              200.00                 -             220.00                235.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Closing as of 29/09/2011

 NOTES :   1)   Buy / Sell 25% of Commodity at S1/R1 respectively & rest 75% at S2/R2 respectively.
           2)   S1 & S2 indicate first support & second support & R1 & R 2 indicate first resistance & second resistance.
           3)   Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the commodity. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly
                basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.
           4)   These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of Daily report- commodities.



   TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS
MENTHA OIL MCX (OCTOBER)


                                                                                   MENTHA OIL MCX (OCTOBER) contract closed at `1426.20 on 29th September '11. The contract made
                                                                                   its high of `1436.40 on 29th September '11 and a low of `1132.00 on 26th August '11.The 18-day
                                                                                   Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at `1329.50.

                                                                                   On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 70.49.One can buy in
                                                                                   the range 1400-1415 with the stop loss of `1368 for a target of `1500.



ZINC MCX (OCTOBER)


                                                                                   ZINC MCX (OCTOBER) contract closed at `94.55 on 29th September '11.The contract made its high of
                                                                                   `106.60 on 31st August'11 and a low of `90.20 on 26th September '11.The 18-day Exponential Moving
                                                                                   Average of the Commodity is currently at `98.30.

                                                                                   On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 37.21. One can buy in
                                                                                   the range 94.50-93.50 with the stop loss of `91.50 for a target of `100.


NATURAL GAS MCX (OCTOBER)


                                                                                   NATURAL GAS MCX (OCTOBER) contract closed at `187.50 on 29th September '11.The contract made
                                                                                   its high of `199.60 on 14th September '11 and a low of `181.50 on 30th August '11.The 18-day
                                                                                   Exponential Moving Average of the Commodity is currently at `188.88.

                                                                                   On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 44.10. One can buy in
                                                                                   the range 185-183 with the stop loss of `178 for a target of `200.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Closing as of 29/09/2011




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                11
COMMODITY

        NEWS DIGEST                                                                               WEEKLY COMMENTARY
China has installed the country's first gold vending
·                                                                                               In the week gone by macro factors created panic across the bourses causing some commodities
   machine in Beijing. Each withdrawal is capped at 2.5                                         to bleed. We witnessed selling in base metals and crude oil not only in last week but also in last
   kilograms (5.5 pounds) or one million yuan (about                                            quarter on ongoing debt crisis in Euro zone amid some growth concern in US as well. The nature
   US$156,500) worth of gold.                                                                   of selling everywhere advocates that investors are in fear and they prefer to seat on cash for the
                                                                                                time being. Gold, which is considered as safe haven buying also moved down from past three
Rajasthan government has increased the stock limit on
·                                                                                               week for the same reason. Marginal appreciation in rupee also sent prices at lower side. While
   pulses. The release stated that any trader can stock up                                      the silver story was not similar; in international market prices moved down but here in
   to 2,500 quintal of chana or chana dal or both.                                              domestic market prices recovered quickly. Traders opted for aggressive buying in silver in both
· Government has decided to make available 19.97
The                                                                                             physical and future market as recent downfall of around Rs 20000 stimulated fresh buying in
   lac tonne of sugar (levy sugar –2.47 lakh tonne and non-                                     metal. Bad durable goods order further hammered industrial metals prices further. But it was
   levy sugar – 17.5 lakh tonne) for the month of October                                       only lead which traded against the weak trend of entire base metal complex and improved on
                                                                                                fresh buying. Reverse trend in dollar index, which couldn't breach its strong resistance of 80
   2011.
                                                                                                proved beneficial for crude oil which slowly scrawled towards north. Expectation of positive US
Govt. has extended a ban on exports of vegetable oils
·                                                                                               GDP number also encouraged buyers to bet on long, which is the world largest consumer of
   by a year to Sept. 30, 2012.                                                                 crude oil.
Special Margin of 10% imposed on the long side on all
·                                                                                               After trading in upward channel for many weeks on strong fundamental and technical, chana
   running contracts of Chana with effect from Friday,                                          finally saw a halt in its rally on impose of 10% additional margin with effect from 30th of
   September 30, 2011.                                                                          September. With the new crop arrival from Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra in the middle of
                                                                                                bearish international market, all edible oil and oil seeds traded in negative zone. They
As
· per the Circular No: MCX/T&S/333/2011, Potato
                                                                                                completely ignored the festival demand as market has sufficient supply to fulfill any additional
   (Tarkeshwar) March 2012 contract is available for
                                                                                                demand. In spice complex too, festival demand is giving no major impact on the prices. Pepper
   futures trading with effect from Thursday, September                                         prices corrected as rally overstretched and nobody was interested to create huge long positions
   29, 2011.                                                                                    at such a higher level rather they preferred profit booking. Some of the spices viz; chilli,
· recently formed Warehousing Development &
The                                                                                             turmeric and cardamom were trying to consolidate at current levels on some lower level
   Regulatory Authority (WDRA) wishes to launch the                                             buying. Despite demand from Bangladesh, Middle East and southern America, jeera witnessed
   trading of negotiable warehouse receipts (WR) on                                             selling pressure. Sugar prices took support near 2720 level and moved up marginally on
   online spot exchanges.                                                                       improved spot demand. Nevertheless, government has announced better sales quota for this
                                                                                                month which may cap the upside. High demand for potato during Navratri sent prices higher in
USDA to release its next crop progress report on
·
                                                                                                future market also. Castor continued to move southward for continuous 10th week.
   October 3, 2011.

        NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)                                                                            MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)
4.00                                                                                                             8.00
                                                                                                                           7.05
          3.16
                    2.62
                                                                                                                 6.00
2.00
                            1.47                                                                                                      4.12     4.00
                                      1.06
                                               0.91
                                                                                                                 4.00
                                                                                                                                                        3.00      2.99

0.00                                                                                                             2.00


                                                                                                                 0.00

-2.00
                                                                                                                -2.00


                                                                                                                -4.00
-4.00                                                                                                                                                                                                               -3.93
                                                                                                                                                                                               -4.20     -4.20

                                                                                                 -4.83          -6.00
                                                                                                                                                                                   -5.91
                                                                 -5.29      -5.22     -5.22
-6.00
                                                                                                                -8.00
                                                                                                                                                                          -7.83


                                                        -7.45
                                                                                                                -10.00
-8.00                                                                                                                     MENTHA     LEAD     THERMAL GUAR SEED ALMOND   PLATINUM SOYABEAN     CPO     CARDAMOM      TIN
        TURMERIC   CRUDE   POTATO   ALMOND NICKEL (N)   CHANA   ZINC (N)   SILVER   SOYABEAN     CPO                        OIL                COAL
                    OIL                                                     INTL.


        WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)                                                                                  WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

  COMMODITY                         UNIT           21.09.11 28.09.11                     DIFFERENCE                               COMMODITY                    UNIT       22.09.11         29.09.11      DIFFERENCE
                                                     QTY.      QTY.                                                                                                         QTY.             QTY.
 CHANA                                 MT        162392.00 160482.00                           -1910.00                           CARDAMOM                      MT            34.10             34.10                0.00
 CHILLI                                MT          7044.00   5537.00                           -1507.00
                                                                                                                                  GOLD                         KGS            98.00             98.00                0.00
 GUAR SEED                             MT         63577.00  62783.00                            -794.00
                                                                                                                                  GOLD MINI                    KGS            54.30             53.20               -1.10
 GUAR GUM                              MT         23089.00  22741.00                            -348.00
 JEERA                                 MT         11255.00  11528.00                             273.00                           MENTHA OIL                   KGS       1096715.58 1191371.93                   94656.35
 PEPPER                                MT          4781.00   4774.00                              -7.00                           POTATO                        MT          2680.20           1765.10             -915.10
 RAPE MUSTARD SEED                     MT        174823.00 164321.00                          -10502.00                           SILVER                       KGS        55924.02           15781.33        -40142.69
 SOYA BEAN SEEDS                       MT           152.00    152.00                               0.00
                                                                                                                                  SUGAR                         MT          3115.92           1848.14            -1267.78
 STEEL LONG                            MT         19471.00  19051.00                            -420.00
 SUGAR S KOL                           MT           648.00   1147.00                             499.00
 TURMERIC                              MT          8664.00   8488.00                            -176.00



                                                                                                                                                                                                                      12
COMMODITY

      SPOT PRICES (% change)                                                                    FUNDAMENTAL OF REFINED SOY
                                                                                            Refined Soy oil is one of the most important edible oils used in India. Crude and Refined
                                                                                            soy oils are the two traded forms of the commodity in the spot as well as futures markets.
        TURMERIC (NIZAMABAD)                                                     0.41       Soybean oil in its crude form is the second most traded oil in international market after
                                                                                            palm oil. Soybean oil accounts for 24% share of the vegetable oil traded in international
            SOYABEAN (INDORE)                     -5.99                                     market.
                                                                                            Global Scenario
                  SILVER (DELHI) -17.46
                                                                                            ·  Refined soybean oil production accounts for 27.4% of the total global vegetable oil
                RUBBER (KOCHI)                            -3.70                                production whereas Soybean oil consumption accounts to 27.7% of the total
                                                                                               vegetable oil consumption.
      REFINED SOYA OIL (INDORE)                                 -2.08                       ·  According to the latest report of USDA released on Sept. 12, global soybean oil production in
                                                                                               2011/12 is forecast at 43.244 million tons as against 41.59 million tons in 2010-11.
           RAW JUTE (KOLKATA)                          -4.86                                ·  Currently, China is the major producer of soybean oil in the World with the production
                                                                                               of 9.8 million ton followed by US (8.6 MT), Argentina (7.2MT) and Brazil (6.9MT).
                POTATO (DELHI)                    -5.99
                                                                                            ·  According to USDA, China's soybean oil production in 2011/12 is forecast at 10.84
 PEPPER MALABAR GAR (KOCHI)                                       -1.26                        million tonnes followed by US (8.46 MT), Argentina (7.6 MT) and Brazil (7.0 MT)
                                                                                            ·  China is the major consumer and importer of soybean oil in the World. It accounts for
              MUSTARD (JAIPUR)                                   -1.69                         approximately 24% of World soybean oil consumption followed by India (12%), US (8%)
                                                                                               and Indonesia (4%)
MILD STEEL INGOTS (GHAZIABAD)                                                    0.31
                                                                                            ·  Argentina is the major exporter (55%) of soybean oil in the World, followed by United
              MASOOR (INDORE)                  -7.03                                           States, Brazil and EU-27 nations.
                                                                                            Indian Scenario
                  JEERA (UNJHA)                                        -0.52                  India
                                                                                            · ranks 6th in soy oil production with a share of 4%.
                                                                                            · Total edible oil production in marketing year 2011/12 is forecast at 7.4 million tonnes,
           GUR (MUZAFFARNGR.)                              -2.95
                                                                                               up 3 percent over current marketing year 2010-11 due to an anticipated increase in
           GUARSEED (JODHPUR)                                                   0.11
                                                                                               total oilseed production and larger oilseed crush. Of which soy oil production is
                                                                                               forecast at around 1.69 million tonnes.
           GUARGUM (JODHPUR)                                           -0.46                · According to the latest report of USDA, assuming a normal monsoon and favourable
                                                                                               growing conditions, total oilseed production in 2011/12 is forecast at 35.6 million tonnes,
             GOLD KG (MUMBAI)                 -7.76                                            up three per cent over 2010/11.
                                                       -4.70
                                                                                            · Growing population, good supply conditions and rising income levels of Indian
      CRUDE PALM OIL (KANDLA)
                                                                                               consumers are likely to raise edible oil consumption levels to 17.1 million tonnes.
             CORIANDER (KOTA)                                  -2.67                        · Soyoils is the second largest edible oil consumption segments in India estimated at 2.9
                                                                                               million tonnes.
                 CHANA (DELHI)                                 -2.38                        · vegetable oil deficit in marketing year 2011/12 is expected to be around 10.8
                                                                                              The
                                                                                               million tonnes; of which 87 percent or close to 9.4 million tonnes is likely to be met
        CHILLI LCA 334 (GUNTUR)                                   -1.14
                                                                                               through imports.
                BARLEY (JAIPUR)                                  -1.69
                                                                                            · The edible oil import for current
                                                                                               marketing year 2010-11 is estimated at
                                                                                               9 million tonnes, which includes 7
      WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)                                                million tonnes of palm oil, 1.4 million
                                                                                               tonnes of soy oil.
COMMODITY                 STOCK POSITION    STOCK POSITION                     DIFFERENCE   · According to USDA, India's soybean
                             ON 22.09.11     ON 29.09.11                                       oil imports are expected to be 0.8
COPPER                             466075        470700                           4625         million tonnes as growing domestic
ALUMINIUM                         4592625       4569075                          -23550        supplies will limit the need for soybean
                                                                                               oil imports.
NICKEL                              97818             97164                        -654
                                                                                              The
                                                                                            · future prices of refined soy oil are
ZINC                               831250        824125                           -7125        largely influenced by the international
LEAD                               374450        373425                           -1025        edible price movements especially BMD palm oil and soyoil in CBOT.
TIN                                 21165             21165                             0   OUTLOOK
                                                                                            Although the new crop of soyabean arrivals start and peak up in October, Crushing will also
                                                                                            start in the same month and peak up during the subsequent two-three months leading to
      PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)                                       subdued prices. But the key festive demand for Refine soy oil supports to prices until
                                                                                            November end. Earlier USDA report was also not Supportive to the edible oil prices.
COMMODITY      EXCHANGE CONTRACT 23.09.11 29.09.11 CHANGE%                                  International edible oil market sentiments are down on lower export demand from the importing
ALUMINIUM         LME      3 MTH 2205.00   2222.00    0.77                                  nations. Due to concern about US economy and euro zone debt crisis the crude oil prices are
COPPER            LME      3 MTH 7260.00   6995.00   -3.65                                  showing weakness. It is also impacting the demand of refined soyoil for Biofuel output.
LEAD              LME      3 MTH 2022.00   1995.00   -1.34
NICKEL            LME      3 MTH 18000.00 18450.00    2.50                                         INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES
TIN               LME      3 MTH 19000.00 20600.00    8.42                                  COMMODITY      EXCHANGE CONTRACT              UNIT         23.09.11 29.09.11 CHANGE (%)
ZINC              LME      3 MTH 1955.00   1897.00   -2.97
                                                                                            Soya              CBOT         NOV      Cent per Bushel     1258.00     1209.25       -3.88
GOLD            COMEX        DEC 1639.80   1617.30   -1.37
                                                                                            Maize             CBOT         DEC      Cent per Bushel       638.50      632.50      -0.94
SILVER          COMEX        DEC 3010.10   3052.20    1.40
LIGHT CRUDE OIL NYMEX        NOV    79.85    82.14    2.87                                  CPO                BMD         DEC        MYR per MT        2992.00     2898.00       -3.14
NATURAL GAS     NYMEX        NOV     3.77     3.75   -0.50                                  Sugar             LIFFE        DEC     10 cents per MT        631.50      674.70       6.84



                                                                                                                                                                                       13
CURRENCY
   Currency Table                                                                                        News Flows of last week
 Currency Pair                    Open                High                 Low               Close    27th Sept:       US new home sales slipped 2.3 percent last month to a 295k
                                                                                                                       annual rate from 302k, a six-month low
 USD/INR                        49.6400             49.8850              48.6500            48.9700
                                                                                                      27th Sept:       US Senate approved a deal on Monday to avert a government
 EUR/INR                        66.7160            6704890               66.0310            66.5600                    shutdown, ending a standoff that highlighted a dysfunctional
 GBP/INR                        76.0550             77.0830              75.7990            76.5010                    Congress' trouble in passing even the most basic legislation.
                                                                                                      28th Sept:       Greek property tax hike vote passed
 JPY/INR                         0.6495             0.6536                0.6350            0.6374
                                                                                                      28th Sept:       Finnish parliament approved stronger EFSF
(Source: Thompson Reuters, Open: Friday (Prior) 9.00 AM IST, Close: Thursday 5.00 PM IST)
                                                                                                      29th Sept:       Germany's parliament approved new powers for the euro zone's
                                                                                                                       crisis fund on Thursday with a large majority.
   Market Stance                                                                                      29th Sept:       US Final Q2 GDP (annualized) +1.3% vs. 1.0%, better than
                                                                                                                       expected of +1.2%
 The Indian rupee snapped its three week fall and strengthened this week on signs
that the region's policymakers are on course to resolve euro zone's woes. The euro
                                                                                                         Economic gauge for the next week
rose from 1.3459 to 1.3591 versus the dollar, and pulled the rupee from its 28-month
low of 49.885 vs. dollar, after the German parliament backed giving more powers to                     Date      Currency     Event                                              CONSENSUS
the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) by a large majority. The partially                    3-Oct       USD        USD ISM Manufacturing                                 50.60
convertible rupee closed at 48.97/98 per dollar on Thursday, 1.2 percent stronger                      4-Oct       EUR        EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY)              6.10%
than its previous week's close of 49.57/58. On a quarterly basis, Rupee has lost 8.8                   4-Oct       USD        USD Factory Orders                                    2.40%
percent against the dollar during the September-quarter, its largest quarterly fall                    5-Oct       GBP        GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY)                      0.70%
since the same period in 2008. The rupee has also been hurt by weak local shares that                  5-Oct       EUR        EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY)                     -0.20%
have lost about 11.4 percent so far in this quarter on global worries as well as                       6-Oct       GBP        GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target                         200B
domestic growth concerns after a series of interest rate increases by the central                      6-Oct       GBP        GBP Bank of England Rate Decision                     0.50%
bank. NSE Nifty closed at 5015.45 points on Thursday, around 92 points above the last                  6-Oct       EUR        EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision              1.50%
week's close of 4923.65. In the coming week, the focus will be on the EU finance
                                                                                                       7-Oct       JPY        JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision                      0.10%
ministers meeting on 3rd of October which can give some clear picture of where the
                                                                                                       7-Oct       USD        USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls                         0K
Greece default scenario is heading. We expect INR to trade with a positive bias in the
region of 48.20 to 49.00 in the subsequent week.                                                       7-Oct       USD        USD Unemployment Rate                                9.10%

   Technical Commendation                                                                   USD/INR                                                                                  EUR/INR




USD/INR (OCTOBER) contract closed at `49.15 on 29th September '11. The contract                       EUR/INR (OCTOBER) contract closed at `66.88 on 29th September '11. The contract
made its high of `50.22 on 23rd September'11 and a low of `44.46 on 08th August                       made its high of `67.83 on 23rd Sep' 11 and a low of `62.98 on 15th July '11.The 18-day
                                                                                                      Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at `66.21.
'11.The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at `48.26.
                                                                                                      On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 66.08. One
On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 65.45.One               can Buy in the range of 66.50-66.60 for a target of `67.70 with the stop loss of `66.00.
can Buy in the range of 49.00-49.10 for a target of `50.10 with the stop loss of `48.50.
                                                                                            GBP/INR                                                                                   JPY/INR




GBP/INR (OCTOBER) contract closed at `76.87 on 29th September '11. The contract                       JPY/INR (OCTOBER) contract closed at `64.14 on 29TH September '11. The contract
made its high of `78.00 on 23rd September'11 and a low of `72.00 on 15th July '11. The                made its high of `66.27 on 23rd September '11 and a low of `56.25 on 04th Aug '11 .The
18-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at `75.50.                              18-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at `62.93.
On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 71.19. One                  On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 63.72.
can Buy in the range 76.70-76.80 for a target of `77.90 with the stop loss of `76.10.                 One can Buy in the range of 64.05-65.10 for a target of `66.05 with the stop loss of `63.45.



                                                                                                                                                                                             14
IPO

Flexituff International Ltd                                                                                                                    SMC Ranking
                                                                     Business Overview
   Issue Highlights
                                                                     The company manufactures FIBC, Geo-Textile Fabric and Ground Cover, Reverse Printed BOPP
 Industry                                       Packaging            Woven Bags, Special PP Bags including Leno Bags at its 3 manufacturing units located in Pithampur
 Total Issue Size                               6,750,000            (M.P.) and Kashipur (Uttrakhand). It also has a recycling and reprocessing plant at Kandla which is
 Issue Size (`Cr.)                                 104.63            used for recovering polypropylene and making various compounds of plastics.
 Price (`)                                       145 - 155
                                                                     Strengths
 Offer Date                                     29-Sep-11
 Close Date                                      5-Oct-11            Diversified Product Mix: The company is a one-stop shop to its customers for all packaging woven
 Face Value                                             10           products. It has been expanding and broad-basing its product portfolio and currently produces FIBCs
 Lot Size                                               40           (500 kg and above), Special PP Bags and Reverse Printed BOPP Woven Bags (5 to 50 kg), Leno Bags for
 ICRA IPO Grade 3/5                             Indicating           Agri-products packing, Woven Geo-Textile Bags and Fabric for prevention of land-slides, control for
                                     average fundamentals            soil erosion, river bank protection, underlay of roads etc.
                                                                     Multi-Market Company: The company is not dependent on a single market and is present both in
   Issue Composition                                In shares
                                                                     overseas as well as domestic markets.
 Total Issue                                         6,750,000       End to End Solutions: The company offers solutions for various technical issues which its customers
 Fresh Issue                                         4,500,000       face in using FIBCs. It designs customized FIBCs, by offering complete range of FIBC for packaging all
 Offer For Sale                                      2,250,000       possible products including fine powdered products, food products, chemicals, liquids, hazardous
 QIB                                                 3,375,000       goods etc.
 NIB                                                 1,012,500
                                                                     Strategy
 Retail                                              2,362,500
                                                                     Focus on FIBC: Manufacturing of FIBC is the core competence of the company and it enjoys
Book Running Lead Manager                                            leadership in this field. Its product quality is appreciated worldwide. Uptill now, FIBC is used mostly
Collins Stewart Inga                                                 in developed countries but with the change and shift in the world economic scenario, India and
                                                                     other developing countries have also started using FIBC. The growing industrial and agricultural
   Shareholding Pattern (%)                                          production in India will create a larger market for FIBC in times to come. With its capacity, scale of
                                                                     operation and skilled manpower the company is rightly placed to leverage its strengths to cater to
Particulars                          Pre-issue Post issue
                                                                     such rise in demand.
Promoters                              32.75     25.97
QIB                                    26.07     25.85               Adding New Products : The company has added products like woven Geo-textiles, BOPP woven bags
NIB                                    41.18     37.31               and special application fabric which have a large growth potential in India. These products are being
Retail                                   0       10.88               used in high growth sector of infrastructure such as roads and coastal development programmes.
Total                                   100       100                These products are used for prevention of soil erosion, soil separation, strengthening of underlay of
                                                                     roads and for prevention of land slides etc. Since, these products can be manufactured by the
    Objects of the Issue                                             company using its existing infrastructure without incurring substantial additional costs, it provides
                                                                     it with a high growth potential.
Particulars                                                    `Cr   Diversified Applications for Recycled Polymer: The company has been able to get specific
Expansion of manufacturing facilities                                technology to recycle in-house waste into plastic granules in a single step process. This has helped in
at Pithampur.                                            18.93       bringing down the percentage of wastage at at Pithampur unit from around 8.5% to 7% over a period
                                                                     of 4 years. Taking this development further, it started a full-fledged plastic waste recycling plant at
Setting up of Dripper Project at Kashipur                  8.10
                                                                     Kandla. As a strategy to add value and incentivise the customers, it is offering waste disposal service
Working Capital Requirements                             25.00       to its FIBC customers. Most of the FIBC's are used once and are then needed to be disposed off. This
General Corporate Purpose*                                     [•]   provides the company with access to cheap source of raw material for its products made out of
                                                                     recycled material. This also contributes towards a greener environment.
Total                                                          [•]
* will be incorporated after the finalization of Issue Price
                                                                     Risk Factors
                                                                     ŸReduction or Termination of Tax Incentives to units in SEZ
Outlook
                                                                     ŸMajor Revenue from Exports to US And Europe
The company has growing operations,
established track record in export markets                           ŸAbsence of long term contracts with Customers
high capacity utilization levels of its                              ŸTimely and Adequate Raw Material Supply
integrated manufacturing facilities going in its                      Yet
                                                                     Ÿ to Place Orders for Equipment
f a v o u r. H o w e v e r, t h e p r o d u c t s a r e
commoditized in nature and the company has                           Valuation
no pricing power. The volatile raw material                          Considering the P/E valuation on the upper end of the price band of `155, the stock is priced at pre
prices and dependence on few suppliers for                           issue P/E of 7.91x on its FY11 EPS of `19.60. Post issue, the stock discounts its FY11 EPS of `15.54 by
raw material are the other major concerns for                        9.98x. Looking on to P/B ratio at `155, the stock is priced at P/B ratio of 1.64x on the pre issue book
the company. The MAT incidence on the SEZ
                                                                     value of `94.67 and on the post issue book value of `123.24, the P/B comes to 1.26x.
operations is going to hit the margins further.
On a post-issue P/E multiple of 10x, the issue                       On the lower end of the price band of `145, the stock is priced at pre issue P/E of 7.40x on its FY11
seems to be slightly overpriced compared to its                      EPS of `19.60. Post issue, the stock discounts its FY11 EPS of `15.54 by 9.33x. Looking on to P/B ratio
listed peers and investors with a long term                          at `145, the stock is priced at P/B ratio of 1.53x on the pre issue book value of `94.67 and on the post
horizon may only consider the issue.                                 issue book value of `123.24, the P/B comes to 1.18x.



                                                                                                                                                                         14
                                                                                                                                                                         15
IPO

Taksheel Solutions Ltd
                                                                                                                                                     SMC Ranking
   Issue Highlights                                                  Business Overview
                                                                     Taksheel Solutions Limited is an IT Solutions company incorporated in the year 1999 in Hyderabad
 Industry                                      IT Services           and is focused on providing products and services for the companies engaged in financial services
 Total Issue Size                               5,500,000            industry & Telecom. It is a 100% EOU and ISO 9001: 2008 certified company. The company also has an
 Issue Size (`Cr.)                                   82.50           office in North America. The company is a specialized solutions provider offering Wealth
 Price Band (`)                                   130 - 150          Management Solutions (WMS), Telecom Solutions, Business Intelligence, Data Warehousing,
 Offer Date                                     29-Sep-11
                                                                     Application Development and Application Maintenance services.
 Close Date                                       4-Oct-11
 Face Value                                              10
 Lot Size                                                45          Strengths
 CARE IPO Grade 2/5                       Indicating below           Wide Range of Wealth Management Solutions: The company has rolled out a broad range of Wealth
                                     average fundamentals            Management solutions to global financial institutions. Its integrated Wealth Management Solutions
                                                                     approach spans across the business processes. These offerings cover the entire gamut of wealth
                                                                     management cycle.
   Issue Composition                                In shares        Early Entrant: The company is one of the few players that entered the WMS market in its early
                                                                     stages and remain focused on providing cutting edge technology solutions to the global clients in the
 Net Public Issue                                    5,500,000
                                                                     market.The early mover advantage has been of immense help to add new clients and generate
 QIB                                                 2,750,000
                                                                     additional sales from the existing clients.
 NIB                                                   825,000
                                                                     Unique, Versatile and State of the Art Telecom Products: The company has specialized and
 Retail                                              1,925,000
                                                                     developed wide range of Telecom product. The product portfolio covers enterprise IP Telephony,
                                                                     Unified Communication System, Carrier Grade solutions, Wireless VOIP solutions, IVRS, Voice
                                                                     Loggers, Video Conferencing, NMS and other IT Solutions.
Book Running Lead Manager
PNB Investment Services
                                                                     Strategy
                                                                     Focus on Wealth Management Solutions: The company will continue to strongly focus on its main
                                                                     strength - WMS, as it is one of the growing and evolving segments. The company is adopting
  Shareholding Pattern (%)
                                                                     proactive target marketing for gaining market share in the WMS market.
Particulars                          Pre-issue Post issue            Focus on Telecom products & Solutions: The company's other focus area is providing customized
Promoters                              63.31     47.37               solution in the area of Enterprise IP Telephony, Unified Messaging System, Carrier Grade solutions
QIB                                       0      12.58               for clients over VOIP, VOIP Integrated Wireless solutions, IVRS, Voice Loggers, Video Conferencing,
NIB                                    29.13     25.58               Network Monitoring & Management, Data Security Solutions.
Retail                                  7.56     14.47
Total                                   100       100
                                                                     Risk Factors
                                                                     ŸDependant on Wealth Management Industry
                                                                     ŸDependant on Few Customers
    Objects of the Issue                                             ŸForeign Exchange Risk
                                                                     ŸHighly Employee Intensive Industry
Particulars                                                    `Cr
                                                                     ŸIncreasing Wage Costs
Setting up a new SEZ development                                     ŸAvailability of Visas
center at Hyderabad                                        9.15
Setting up new SEZ development                                       Valuation
center at Warangal                                         8.66      Considering the P/E valuation on the upper end of the price band of `150, the stock is priced at pre-
Acquisitions and Other Strategic Initiatives22.00
                                                                     issue P/E of 8.95x on its FY11 EPS of `16.77. Post issue, the stock discounts its FY11 EPS of `12.55 by
                                                                     11.96x. Looking at the P/B ratio at `150, the stock is priced at P/B ratio of 2.71x on the pre-issue
Financing Incremental Working Capital                    12.80
                                                                     book value of `55.41 and on the post issue book value of `79.22, the P/B comes out to 1.89x.
General Corporate Purpose*                                     [•]   On the lower end of the price band of Rs. 130, the stock is priced at pre-issue P/E of 7.75x on its FY11
Issue Expenses*                                                [•]   EPS of `16.77. Post issue, the stock discounts its FY11 EPS of `12.55 by 10.36x. Looking on to P/B
Total                                                          [•]   ratio at `130, the stock is priced at P/B ratio of 2.35x on the pre-issue book value of `55.41 and on
* will be incorporated after the finalization of Issue Price
                                                                     the post-issue book value of `79.22, the P/B comes out to 1.64x.


                                                                     Outlook
                                                                     The company is present in a fast growing IT Services exports industry. However, the company's major
                                                                     clients are concentrated in the BFSI domain in the US and most of them are not in good financial
                                                                     condition. The expected downturn in the US economy and the increasingly protectionist
                                                                     environment leading up to the elections in 2012 are the main concerns for the company. Also the
                                                                     operating margins of the company are very weak compared to similar sized players. On a post-issue
                                                                     P/E multiple of 11.96x, the issue seems to be fairly priced and captures the growth potential of the
                                                                     company in the immediate future.


                                                                                                                                                                         14
                                                                                                                                                                         16
MUTUAL FUND                                                                                                                             Market Watch

   NEWS
Birla Sun Life MF introduces Fixed Term Plan - Series DO
Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund has launched the NFO for Birla Sun Life Fixed Term Plan - Series DO, a close ended income scheme. The NFO opens for
subscription on September 26, 2011 and closes on October 4, 2011. Entry and exit load charge will be Nil for the scheme. The duration of the
scheme will be 370 days from the date of allotment. The scheme offers dividend payout and growth option. The scheme will be benchmarked
against CRISIL Short Term Bond Fund Index. The minimum application amount is ` 5000 and in multiple of `10 thereafter. The investment objective
of the scheme is to generate income by investing in a portfolio of fixed income securities maturing on or before the duration of the scheme.

ICICI Prudential MF introduces Capital Protection Oriented Fund - Series IV
ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund has launched the ICICI Prudential Capital Protection Oriented Fund - Series IV- 36 Months Plan, a close ended Capital
Protection Oriented Fund. The NFO opens for subscription on September 22, 2011 and closes on October 5, 2011. Entry and exit load charge will be
NIL for the scheme. The duration of the scheme will be 36 months from the date of allotment. The scheme offers dividend payout and cumulative
option. The scheme will be benchmarked against CRISIL MIP Blended Index. The minimum application amount is Rs 5000 and in multiple of ` 10
thereafter. The investment objective of the scheme is to seek to protect capital by investing a portion of the portfolio in good quality debt
securities and money market instruments and also to provide capital appreciation by investing the balance in equity and equity related securities.

SBI MF declares dividend under Debt Fund Series-90 Days-46
SBI Mutual Fund has declared dividend under dividend option of SBI Debt Fund Series-90 Days-46 on the face value of ` 10 per unit. The quantum of
dividend will be entire distributable surplus as on the record date. The record date for the dividend payout has been fixed as October 5, 2011. The
scheme recorded NAV of ` 10.1967 per unit as on September 28, 2011. The scheme would mature on October 5, 2011 and accordingly, units shall be
suspended from trading on the BSE.

Reliance MF declares dividend under Fixed Horizon Fund-XVI-Series 1
Reliance Mutual Fund has declared dividend under the dividend payout option of Reliance Fixed Horizon Fund-XVI-Series 1. The quantum of
dividend will be entire distributable surplus available in the scheme as on the record date. The record date for the dividend payout has been fixed
as October 5, 2011. The scheme recorded NAV of `10.3344 per unit as on September 28, 2011.

   NFOs WATCH
    Fund Name              NFO             NFO                        Scheme Objective                 Fund Type   Fund Class    Fund Manager     Minimum
                         Opens on       Closes on                                                                                                 Amount

ICICI Prudential       20-Sep-2011    4-Oct-2011    Fund of funds scheme with the primary               Close-      Fund of Chaitanya            `5,000/-
Regular Gold Savings                                objective to generate returns by investing in       Ended       Funds - Pande
Fund                                                units of ICICI Prudential Gold Exchange                        Domestic
                                                    Traded Fund.



SBI DEBT FUND          29-Sep-2011    7-Oct-2011    To provide regular income, liquidity and returns   Close-      Income       Rajeev           `5,000/-
SERIES - 18 Months                                  to the investors through investments in a          Ended                    Radhakrishnan
–7                                                  portfolio comprising of debt instruments such
                                                    as Government Securities, AAA/AA+ Bonds and
                                                    Money Market Instruments maturing on or
                                                    before the maturity of the scheme.

HDFC FMP 24M           30-Sep-2011     10-Oct-2011 To generate income through investments in            Close-     Income       Bharat Pareek,   `5,000/-
September 2011 (1)                                 Debt / Money Market Instruments and                  Ended                   Miten Lathia
                                                   Government Securities maturing on or
                                                   before the maturity date of the respective
                                                   Plan(s).



DSP BlackRock World    30-Sep-2011     14-Oct-2011 To seek capital appreciation by investing            Open       Fund of Mehul Jani            `5,000/-
Agriculture Fund                                   predominantly in units of BlackRock Global           Ended      Funds –
                                                   Funds World Agriculture Fund (BGF - WAF).                       Overseas
                                                   The Scheme may, at the discretion of the
                                                   Investment Manager, also invest in the units
                                                   of other similar overseas mutual fund
                                                   schemes, which may constitute a significant
                                                   part of its corpus.



                                                                                                                                                            17
MUTUAL FUND                                                                                                                                                                                                      Performance Charts


  EQUITY (Diversified)                                                                                                                                       Due to their inherent long term nature, the following 3 categories have been sorted on the basis of 1 year returns


        Scheme Name                         Launch
                                                 NAV AUM           NAV AUM                                        Returns (%)                                                     Risk                                              Market Cap (%)
                                                            Launch
                                              Date(`) (Rs. inDate (Rs.) in cr.)
                                                              cr.)    (`.                     3M           6M          1Y            3Y        Since               Beta         Jensen          Std.          Small         Mid       Large Other                   Debt
                                                                                                                                              Launch                                            Dev.          Cap           Cap        Cap                         & Cash
SBI Magnum Sector Umbrella-Emerg Buss F-G        43.23      17-Sep-04        N.A.            0.79         11.48         -0.53       24.91          23.13           0.94          0.49          3.33          41.21         37.23        11.00          0.00
UTI Wealth Builder Fund - Series II - Growth     19.56      17-Dec-08        N.A.            -1.11        1.61          -1.61       N.A.           27.26           0.67          0.22          1.91           0.53         17.19        57.24          0.00
Edelweiss Absolute Return Fund - Growth          11.22      20-Aug-09        N.A.            -2.09        0.90          -2.18       N.A.           5.61            0.17         -0.10          0.68           3.38         20.37        43.82          0.00
Mirae Asset Emerging Bluechip Fund-Growth        10.75       9-Jul-10       97.2089          -6.26        2.25          -4.22       N.A.           6.09            0.76          0.22          2.33           8.36         63.22        25.43          0.00
Canara Robeco Large Cap+ Fund - Growth            9.89      20-Aug-10        N.A.            -5.99        -4.44         -6.26       N.A.           -0.99           0.64          0.06          1.75           0.00         0.00         92.61          0.00
AIG India Equity Fund - Reg - Growth             12.00      22-Jun-07       155.41           -3.32        1.21          -6.37       16.34          4.35            0.66          0.11          1.85           0.69         24.37        68.10          0.00
UTI India Lifestyle Fund - Growth                11.63      24-Aug-07        N.A.            -4.36        2.11          -6.59       16.79          3.75            0.79          0.15          2.23           0.00         23.72        66.00          0.00



  BALANCED

        Scheme Name                         LaunchNAV AUM          NAV AUM                                                  Returns (%)                                           Risk                                              Market Cap (%)
                                                            Launch
                                              Date (`)(Rs. inDate (Rs.) in cr.)
                                                              cr.)    (`.                     3M             6M               1Y        3Y                     Since            Jensen          Std.          Small         Mid       Large Other                   Debt
                                                                                                                                                              Launch                            Dev.          Cap           Cap        Cap                         & Cash
HDFC Balanced Fund - Growth                       55.07      11-Sep-00        N.A.           -4.07           1.67           -0.86           20.51                 16.69          -0.17          1.51          3.39         21.97        27.32         13.27         34.05
ICICI Prudential Balanced - Growth                45.62       3-Nov-99        N.A.           -3.67           -0.55          -1.55           14.15                 13.59          -0.19          1.59          0.00         26.65        42.44          0.00         30.91
Escorts Opportunities Fund - Growth               26.95       9-Mar-01      118.9384         -4.51           -1.93          -4.81            4.95                  9.84          -0.22          1.17          N.A.         N.A.          N.A.          N.A.          N.A.
Tata Balanced Fund - Growth                       79.89       8-Oct-95      319.3381         -4.80           -1.87          -6.67           17.38                 13.88          -0.31          1.84          4.66         14.31        56.17          0.00         24.86
Canara Robeco Balance - Growth                    59.31       1-Feb-93        N.A.           -3.70           -0.72          -6.79           17.35                 10.22          -0.30          1.41          7.95         16.76        44.98          0.02         30.29
FT India Balanced Fund - Growth                   47.12      10-Dec-99      226.4372         -4.44           -3.47          -6.89           12.22                 14.02          -0.33          1.49          1.34         9.28         59.38          0.00         29.99
HDFC Prudence Fund - Growth                       204.31      1-Feb-94        N.A.           -5.62           -3.06          -6.97           22.15                 18.62          -0.30          1.73          2.80         20.20        36.71         14.86         25.43


  INCOME FUND
         Scheme Name                                                                          Average Yield                                                                 Returns(%)                                                                      Risk
                                                     NAV         Launch          AUM
                                                      (`)         Date         (`. in cr.)    Maturity  Till                                 Annualised                                                                            Since        Sharpe         Std. Dev.
                                                                                               (Days) Maturity              1W            2W      1M                       6M                   1Y                 3Y             launch
Canara Robeco InDiGo Fund - Growth                   11.62       9-Jul-10        N.A.          402           9.47         -100.89         -45.21      -11.06               20.84             14.35               N.A.              13.01          0.28              0.66
Escorts Income Plan- Growth                          33.03      22-May-98        4.11          1418          N.A.          -7.74          41.88       40.53                14.26              9.44               9.05               9.35          0.17              0.33
Templeton India Low Duration Fund - Growth           11.02      26-Jul-10      1696.36          77           9.79          9.53            9.04        8.93                10.23              9.08               N.A.               8.60          0.54              0.10
Sahara Income Fund - Growth                          19.67      22-Feb-02         2.5           10           N.A.          8.87            8.78        8.63                9.45               8.91               9.18               7.33          0.67              0.08
Religare Active Income Fund - Plan A - Growth        12.18       2-Aug-07        N.A.          205           8.96          3.00            5.82        5.98                10.89              8.85               6.09               4.84          0.31              0.17
UTI Bond Fund - Growth                               29.81      4-May-98         N.A.          1361          N.A.          1.78            4.99        6.29                12.50              8.84               8.16               8.48          0.20              0.26
ICICI Pru. Bank & PSU Debt Fund-Prem Plus-G          11.32       1-Jan-10        N.A.           19           8.76          11.91          10.85        9.73                9.07               8.77               N.A.               7.38          0.86              0.05




 SHORT TERM FUND                                                                                                                                           Due to their inherent short term nature, the following 2 categories have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns


         Scheme Name                                                                          Average Yield                                                                 Returns(%)                                                                      Risk
                                                    NAV          Launch          AUM
                                                     (`)          Date         (`. in cr.)    Maturity  Till                                 Annualised                                                                            Since        Sharpe         Std. Dev.
                                                                                               (Days) Maturity              1W            2W      1M                       6M                   1Y                 3Y             launch
Sahara Short Term Bond Fund - Growth                 12.36      13-Apr-09       247.74               24       N.A.         8.79            8.93        8.74               18.40               13.32              N.A.               8.98          0.20              0.70
Sundaram Select Debt-STAP-Appreciation               17.27       4-Sep-02        4.78            259             9.18      6.83            7.47        6.55               12.84               11.79              5.72               6.20          0.26              0.42
UTI Short Term Income Fund-Ret-Growth                17.57      23-Jun-03        N.A.            938          N.A.         5.82            5.59        7.26               11.48               8.73               8.20               7.05          0.25              0.19
Escorts Short Term Debt Fund - Growth                15.22      29-Dec-05        3.74            151          N.A.         11.88          12.17       10.26               11.02               10.18              8.06               7.57          0.62              0.12
Pramerica Short Term Income Fund-Growth             1070.05      4-Feb-11        N.A.            240             9.54      9.99            9.67        9.20               10.66               N.A.               N.A.              10.79          0.82              0.11
Peerless Short Term Fund - Growth                    11.31      18-Aug-10        N.A.                41          9.37      9.75            9.63        9.50                9.95               12.16              N.A.              11.63          0.26              0.45
AIG Short Term Fund-Ret-Growth                      1275.07      6-Mar-08        93.82           170          N.A.         10.32           9.12        8.17                9.93               8.54               7.19               7.05          0.37              0.12


 ULTRA SHORT TERM
         Scheme Name                                                                          Average Yield                                                                 Returns(%)                                                                      Risk
                                                     NAV         Launch          AUM
                                                      (`)         Date         (`. in cr.)    Maturity  Till                                 Annualised                                                                            Since        Sharpe         Std. Dev.
                                                                                               (Days) Maturity              1W            2W      1M                       6M                   1Y                 3Y             launch
JM Money Manager Fund - Reg - Growth                 14.12      27-Sep-06        N.A.                28          9.70      9.58            9.51        9.37                9.75               9.20               6.71               7.13          0.89              0.06
IDFC Ultra Short Term Fund - Growth                  14.14      17-Jan-06        N.A.            110          N.A.         8.46            8.34        8.80                9.49               9.02               6.17               6.26          0.78              0.07
Reliance Medium Term Fund - Growth                   21.27      14-Sep-00        N.A.            203             9.21      9.48            9.13        8.85                9.43               8.52               6.89               7.07          0.40              0.11
Peerless Ultra Short Term Fund-Ret-Growth            11.17      19-Feb-10        N.A.                37          9.44      7.29            7.35        7.50                9.38               8.48               N.A.               7.11          0.40              0.11
Pramerica Ultra Short Term Bond Fund-Growth         1090.40     24-Sep-10        N.A.                28          8.40      9.45            9.32        9.16                9.34               8.92               N.A.               8.91          0.81              0.06
Kotak Floater - LT - Growth                          16.30      13-Aug-04      4138.57           117             9.75      9.00            9.04        9.03                9.22               8.68               7.08               7.09          0.76              0.06
DWS Cash Opportunities Fund-Reg-Growth               13.60      22-Jun-07        168.4               44       10.27        9.29            9.19        9.02                9.16               7.97               6.67               7.47          0.45              0.07
                                                                                                                                              Note: Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option. The above mentioned data is on the basis of 29/09/2011
                                                                                                                                                   Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 7%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        18
SMC participated in “India 2020: Economy Outlook” organised by D&B at Mumbai




 SMC participated in “3rd Global CSR Summit” organised by ASSOCHAM at Delhi

				
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