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					    Global Warming
  Will Human-Induced Climate
  Change Destroy the World?

                        By Rich Deem
             www.GodAndScience.org
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            Introduction
• Is the world getting warmer?
• If so, are the actions of mankind to
  blame for earth’s temperature
  increases?
• What can/should be done about these
  issues?
• Are the potential resolutions worth the
  cost to implement them?
   History of Earth’s Climate
• Earth formed ~4.6 billion years ago
• Originally very hot
• Sun’s energy output only 70% of
  present
• Liquid water present ~4.3 billion years
  ago (zircon dating)
• Much of earth’s early history erased
  during late heavy bombardment (~3.9
  billion years ago)
   History of Earth’s Climate
• Life appeared ~3.8 billion years ago
• Photosynthesis began 3.5-2.5 billion
  years ago
   Produced oxygen and removed carbon
    dioxide and methane (greenhouse gases)
   Earth went through periods of cooling
    (“Snowball Earth”) and warming
• Earth began cycles of glacial and
  interglacial periods ~3 million years
  ago
        Earth’s Temperature
         Solar

Sun     Energy

      Solar

      Energy
         Earth’s Temperature

Sun


Solar     Radiative
           Cooling
Energy
      Earth’s Temperature

Sun
Solar
          Radiative
          Cooling
Energy
         Earth’s Temperature

Sun



Solar
         Radiative
Energy
          Cooling
Sun   Greenhouse Effect
Earth’s Atmospheric Gases
Nitrogen (N2)
                          Non-
Oxygen (O2)            >99%
                       Greenhouse
                         Gases
Argon (Ar)


Water (H2O)


Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
                       Greenhouse
                       <1%
                         Gases
Methane (CH4)
Sun   Runaway Greenhouse Effect

• 97% carbon dioxide
• 3% nitrogen
• Water & sulfuric
  acid clouds
• Temperature:         Venus
  860°F
Carbon Dioxide
                  Carbon Dioxide Levels
            420                                   Muana Loa Readings
                                                  CO2 Levels Since 1958




                                      CO2 (ppm)
            370                                   370
                                                  350
CO2 (ppm)




                                                  330
            320                                   310
                                                      40 30 20 10 0

            270

            220
                   Dome Concordia                    Vostok Ice Core
            170 600000          400000     200000                         0
                                   Time (YBP)
             Worldwide Carbon Emissions
                           8
Carbon (109 metric tons)

                                  Total
                           7      Liquid fuel
                           6      Solid fuel
                                  Gas fuel
                           5
                           4
                           3
                           2
                           1
                           0
                           1750     1800        1850    1900   1950   2000
                                                    Year
                               Annual Carbon Emissions
                           8
Carbon (109 metric tons)

                                 Annual carbon emissions
                                 Atmospheric CO2
                           6     Atmospheric CO2 average



                           4


                           2


                      0
                      1955         1965     1975    1985   1995   2005
                                                Year
Future Carbon Dioxide Levels
• Increasing CO2 emissions, especially in
  China and developing countries
• Likely to double within 150 years:
   Increased coal usage
   Increased natural gas usage
   Decreased petroleum usage (increased
    cost and decreasing supply)
          Kyoto Protocol
• Adopted in 1997
• Cut CO2 emissions by 5% from 1990
  levels for 2008-2012
• Symbolic only, since cuts will not
  significantly impact global warming
Past Temperatures
                                    Recorded Worldwide                    Flat
                                       Temperatures
                          0.8
D Mean Temperature (°C)




                          0.6

                          0.4                        Decreasing
                                    Flat
                          0.2

                          0.0

                          -0.2

                          -0.4

                          -0.6
                             1880   1900   1920   1940   1960     1980   2000
                                                  Year
                                        Historic Los Angeles
                                           Temperatures
                        Annual Temperatures                 Summer Temperatures                  Winter Temperatures
                   22                                  25                                   17


                   21                                  24                                   16


                   20                                  23                                   15
Temperature (°C)




                   19                                  22                                   14


                   18                                  21                                   13


                   17                                  20                                   12


                   16                                  19                                   11


                   15                                   18                                   10
                     1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000   1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000   1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
                                    Year                                 Year                                 Year
            2009 Temperature Changes
              Compared to 1951-1980




                       2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980

-4.1   -4    -2   -1   -.5    -.2   .2     .5    1      2     4    4.1
Past Temperatures Measurement
• Proxy – a method that approximates a
  particular measurement (e.g.,
  temperature)
     Tree rings
     Ice cores
     Pollen records
     Plant macrofossils
     Sr/Ca isotope data
     Oxygen isotopes from speleothem calcite
      (stalactites and stalagmites)
Temperature History of the Earth
• Little ice age (1400-1840) – 1°C cooler
• Medieval warm period (800-1300) – 1°C
  warmer than today
• Cool/warm cycles occur ~1,500 years
• Affect mostly Northeastern U.S. and North
  Atlantic
• Mostly due to changes in thermohaline
  circulation 
• Dramatic shutdown of thermohaline
  circulation occurred 8,200 years ago as a
  large lake in Canada flooded the North
  Atlantic
Main Ocean Currents




                Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 4-2
Temperature History of the Earth

• For the past 3 million years, the earth
  has been experiencing ~100,000 year
  long cycles of glaciation followed by
  ~10,000 year long interglacial periods
• These climate periods are largely the
  result of cycles in the earth’s orbit –
  precession, obliquity, and eccentricity
Orbital Parameters: Precession




       Apehelion      Perihelion
Orbital Parameters: Obliquity
         22.5°
         24.5°
  Orbital Parameters: Eccentricity
Maximum: 0.061


           Minimum: 0.005


            Apehelion
           Apehelion         Perihelion




                            To Scale!
                            Not to scale!
Orbital Parameters & Earth’s Climate

 Precession
   (22 ky)

   Obliquity
    (41 ky)
Eccentricity
  (100 ky)



Temperature



          1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
                            Age (kya)
Temperature History of the Earth

• For the past 3 million years, the earth
  has been experiencing ~100,000 year
  long cycles of glaciation followed by
  ~10,000 year long interglacial periods
• Last ice age began to thaw 15,000 years
  ago, but was interrupted by the
  “Younger Dryas” event 12,900 years
  ago
                          Younger Dryas Event
                   -25     Younger                             0.35




                                                                       Snow Accumulation (m/yr)
                            Dryas
                   -30                                         0.30
Temperature (°C)




                                          Medieval Warm
                   -35                                         0.25

                   -40 Ice Age                   Little Ice Age 0.20
                   -45                                         0.15

                   -50                                         0.10

                   -55                                         0.05
                     20      15         10          5         0
                                     Age (kya)
                      Younger Dryas Event
               -8.0                             -34
                                   Younger
               -7.5                 Dryas       -35
                                                -36




                                                      d18O (Greenland)
               -7.0
                                                -37
d18O (China)




               -6.5                             -38
               -6.0                             -39
               -5.5                             -40
                                                -41
               -5.0
                                                -42
               -4.5                             -43
               -4.0                             -44
                   16   15   14    13 12 11   10
                                  Age (kya)
Temperature History of the Earth

Middle Pliocene (3.15 to 2.85 million ya)
• Temperatures: 2°C higher than today.
   20°C higher at high latitudes
   1°C higher at the Equator
• Sea levels were 100 ft higher
• Causes
   CO2 levels that were 100 ppm higher
   Increased thermohaline circulation
Temperature History of the Earth

Eocene (41 million years ago)
• Opening of the Drake Passage
  (between South America and
  Antarctica).
• Increased ocean current exchange
   Strong global cooling
   First permanent glaciation of Antarctica
    ~34 million years ago
Temperature History of the Earth

Paleocene Thermal Maximum (55 mya)
• Sea surface temperatures rose 5-8°C
• Causes
   Increased volcanism
   Rapid release of methane from the oceans
Temperature History of the Earth

Mid-Cretaceous (120-90 mya)
• Much warmer
• Breadfruit trees grew in Greenland
• Causes
   Different ocean currents (continental
    arrangement)
   higher CO2 levels (at least 2 to 4 times
    higher than today, up to 1200 ppm)
     A Compilation of Phanerozoic
      Atmospheric CO2 Records
                                                                    6000
                                                                    5000




                                                                             Concentration (ppmV)
                                                                               Atmospheric CO2
                                                                    4000
                                                                    3000
                                                                    2000
                                                                    1000
                                                                    0




                                                                            Continental Glaciation
                                                                    30




                                                                               (Paleolatitude)
                                                                    60


S    D       Carb     P   Tr      J         K       Pg Ng
                                                                    90
      Paleozoic                  Mesozoic          Cenozoic
    400         300            200          100                 0
                                                  Breecker D O et al. PNAS 2010;107:576-580
Recent Temperature
     Changes
                           “Hockey Stick” Controversy
Temperature Change (°C)


                          0.6
                                     Direct temperature measurements
                          0.4        Mann et al. 1999
                          0.2
                            0
                          -0.2
                          -0.4
                          -0.6
                          -0.8
                             1000   1200   1400   1600     1800    2000
                                               Year
                          The Problem with Tree Rings
                           0.3    Jones et al. 1998
Temperature Change (°C)



                           0.2    Briffa et al. 1999
                                  Mann et al. 1999
                           0.1
                             0
                          -0.1
                          -0.2
                          -0.3
                          -0.4
                          -0.5
                          -0.6
                             1000 1200         1400      1600   1800   2000
                                                       Year
What Influences Tree Rings?
• Temperature
• Rainfall
• Carbon dioxide concentration
                          Is the Hockey Stick Correct?
                          2
Temperature Change (°C)




                                                       Mann et al. 1999
                                                       Esper et al. 2002
                          1


                          0


                          -1


                          -2
                            800   1000   1200   1400   1600    1800        2000
                                                Year
                          Is the Hockey Stick Correct?
                          0.4
                                           Medieval Warm Period
Temperature Change (°C)


                          0.2
                          0.0
                          -0.2
                          -0.4
                          -0.6
                                     Mann et al. 1999
                          -0.8       Esper et al. 2002
                          -1.0       Moberg et al. 2005
                                     Mann et al. 2008
                          -1.2
                                 0      400      800      1200   1600   2000
                                                       Year
                                 U.S. National Academy of
                                   Sciences: June 2006
Temperature Change (°C)


                          0.6
                                    “2:1 chance of being right”   “high level of confidence”
                          0.4
                          0.2
                            0
                          -0.2
                          -0.4
                          -0.6
                          -0.8
                             1000       1200        1400   1600             1800        2000
                                                        Year
                            Atmospheric Temperatures
                                   Troposphere                Stratosphere
                          0.8                        1.5
Temperature Cgange (°C)




                          0.6
                                                     1.0
                          0.4
                          0.2                        0.5

                          0.0                        0.0
                          -0.2
                                                     -0.5
                          -0.4
                          -0.6                       -1.0
                            1980     1990     2000     1980     1990     2000
                                       Year                       Year
                  CO2 Concentration Vs. Temperature




                                                            SST (°C) Tropical Pacific
                       370
CO2 (ppm) Antarctica




                       320                             31
                                                       30
                       270                             29
                                                       28
                       220                             27
                                                       26
                       170
                             600000   400000 200000   025
                                        Time (YBP)
Consequences of
Global Warming
                           Global Warming Primarily Impacts
                               the Northern Hemisphere
                                Northern vs. Southern Latitude      Land vs. Ocean
                          1.0
Temperature Change (°C)




                                      Northern Hemisphere          Land
                          0.8         Southern Hemisphere          Ocean
                          0.6
                          0.4
                          0.2
                       0.0
                      -0.2
                      -0.4
                      -0.6
                                   1920      1960        2000    1920        1960    2000
                                            Year                           Year
            2009 Temperature Changes
              Compared to 1951-1980




-4.1   -4    -2   -1   -.5   -.2   .2   .5   1   2   4   4.1
Possible Solutions to
  Global Warming
Mitigation of Global Warming
• Conservation
   Reduce energy needs
   Recycling
• Alternate energy sources
     Nuclear
     Wind
     Geothermal
     Hydroelectric
     Solar
     Fusion?
     Storage of CO2 in Geological Formations
1.    Depleted oil and gas reservoirs
2.    CO2 in enhanced oil and gas recovery
3.    Deep saline formations – (a) offshore (b) onshore
4.    CO2 in enhanced coal bed methane recovery
                                             1               4
                                  3b
         3a
                    2




                                                      Adapted from IPCC SRCCS Figure TS-7
Global Warming Myths
                            Global Warming Has Stopped?
                          0.8                            1366.8
                                                         1366.6
D Mean Temperature (°C)




                                                                  Solar Irradiance (W/m2)
                          0.6
                                                         1366.4

                          0.4                            1366.2
                                                         1366.0
                          0.2                            1365.8
                                                         1365.6
                          0.0
                                                         1365.4
                -0.2                                     1365.2
                   1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
                                     Year
                           Volcanoes Put Out More CO2
                            Than Fossil Fuel Burning
Carbon (109 metric tons)

                   10

                           8

                           6

                           4

                           2

                           0
                                 Volcanoes   Fossil Fuel
                           Global Warming is Caused by
                                    Sunspots
                     0.8                                               250
D Mean Temperature (°C)




                     0.6
                                                                       200
                     0.4




                                                                             Sunspots
                     0.2                                               150

                     0.0                                               100
               -0.2
                                                                       50
               -0.4
               -0.6                                                    0
                 1880        1900   1920   1940   1960   1980   2000
                                           Year
                                Hadley Temperatures Vs.
                                       Sunspots
                          1.5                                           250
D Mean Temperature (°C)




                          1.0                                           200
                          0.0




                                                                              Sunspots
                                                                        150
                     -0.5
                                                                        100
                     -1.0

                     -1.5                                               50

                     -2.0                                               0
                       1750      1800   1850       1900   1950   2000
                                               Year
                                Global Warming is Caused by
                                           GCR
                          1.0                                           4600
                                                                        4400
D Mean Temperature (°C)




                          0.8




                                                                                Gamma Cosmic Rays
                                                                        4200
                          0.6
                                                                        4000
                          0.4
                                                                        3800
                          0.2
                                                                        3600
                          0.0                                           3400
                -0.2                                                    3200
                -0.4                                                     3000
                   1950            1960   1970   1980   1990   2000   2010
                                                 Year
                                       CO2 Vs. Sea Level
                                      CO2 Vs. Temperature
                     40
                      6                                                                                                                              320

                     20
                      4                                                                                                                              300
                      0
                      2
                                                                                                                                                     280
Relative Sea Level




                     -20
                       0




                                                                                                                                                                CO2 (ppmv)
  Temperature




                                                                                                                                                     260
                     -40
                      -2
                                                                                                                                                     240
                     -60
                      -4
                                                                                                                                                     220
                     -80
                      -6

             -100
               -8                                                                                                                                    200

             -120
              -10                                                                                                                                    180
                           500000            400000                 300000     200000                              100000                        0
                                                                       Time (ybp)
                             Rohling et al. 2009. Antarctic temperature and global sea level closely coupled over the last five glacial cycles. Nature Geoscience 2:500.
       Global Warming is Due to Urban
                Heat Islands




                       2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980

-4.1    -4   -2   -1   -.5    -.2   .2     .5    1      2     4    4.1
Mt. Kilimanjaro’ Glaciers are Melting
    Because of Global Warming
                           Global Warming Primarily Impacts
                               the Northern Hemisphere
                                Northern vs. Southern Latitude      Land vs. Ocean
                          1.0
Temperature Change (°C)




                                      Northern Hemisphere          Land
                          0.8         Southern Hemisphere          Ocean
                          0.6
                          0.4
                          0.2
                       0.0
                      -0.2
                      -0.4
                      -0.6
                                   1920      1960        2000    1920        1960    2000
                                            Year                           Year
  Sea Levels Will Rise 5-6 ft?
• Present rate is 1.8 ± 0.3 mm/yr (7.4
  in/century)
• Accelerating at a rate of 0.013 ± 0.006 mm/yr2
• If acceleration continues, could result in 12
  in/century sea level rise
• Scenarios claiming 1 meter or more rise are
  unrealistic
• Recently, the California State Lands
  Commission said that sea levels could rise
  55 inches this century, inundating ports
                                   Changing Sea Levels
                          20




                                                                                            Global Temperature Change
Relative Sea Level (cm)




                          10


                           0


                          -10      Amsterdam, Netherlands
                                   Brest, France
                                   Swinoujscie, Poland
                          -20
                            1700   1750    1800   1850      1900       1950           2000
                                                                   Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 2-5
     How Much Temperature
          Increase?
• Global warming alarmists propose up
  to 9°C increase this century
• Two studies put the minimum at 1.5°C
  and maximum at 4.5°C or 6.2°C
• Another study puts the minimum at
  2.5°C
                       Predictions Vs. Reality
          1.5            Annual Mean Global Temperature Change

                                     Exponential Increase in carbon emissions


          1.0
DT (°C)




                           Moderate reduction in carbon emissions


          0.5
                                        Drastic reduction in carbon emissions

    Observed temps through 1988

           0                                                        OBSERVED
                                                                    SCENARIO A
                                                                    SCENARIO B
                                                                    SCENARIO C
     -0.4
                1960    1970           1980                1990   2000    2010   2019
Hansen, J. 1988. Journal Of Geophysical Research 93:9241. Date
                Temperature Extrapolation
          2.5

          2.0

      1.5
DT (°C)




      1.0

      0.5

           0

    -0.4
       1960      1980   2000   2020   2040   2060   2080   2100
                                  Date
            Conclusions
• Global warming is happening
• Most warming is probably the result of
  human activities
• There will be positive and negative
  (mostly) repercussions from global
  warming
• The costs to mitigate global warming
  will be high – better spent elsewhere?

				
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