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JEDI CTL Aff by wuyunyi

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									JEDI 2k8                                                                                                                                             Alt Liquid Fuels
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                               Alternative Liquid Fuels Affirmative
1AC Plan ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 3
Solvency ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 4
ADV. 1 is the Air Force ................................................................................................................................................................. 7
Adv.2 is The Caspian ................................................................................................................................................................. 12
INH: No Long Term Contracts Now ......................................................................................................................................... 16
Plan Solves National Oil Dependency ................................................................................................................................... 17
Plan Solves Air Force Readiness .............................................................................................................................................. 18
CTL Solves Oil Dependence .................................................................................................................................................... 19
CTL Solves Emissions ................................................................................................................................................................... 20
CTL Is Functional ......................................................................................................................................................................... 23
CTL  Energy Independence ................................................................................................................................................. 24
CTL Is a Renewable Bridge....................................................................................................................................................... 25
CTL Would Be Cheap ................................................................................................................................................................ 26
CTL Better Than Diesel ............................................................................................................................................................... 27
CTL Spills Over to Civilian Aircraft ............................................................................................................................................ 28
Solves Supply Competition ...................................................................................................................................................... 29
Renewable Alone Fail—CTL is Key .......................................................................................................................................... 30
Plenty of Coal ............................................................................................................................................................................. 31
AT: SASOL Proves CTL Bad ........................................................................................................................................................ 32
AT: CTL Too Dirty to be Legal ................................................................................................................................................... 33
Incentives Are Key to CTL ......................................................................................................................................................... 34
Technology Transferable to Civilians ...................................................................................................................................... 36
CTL Requires No Retrofitting ..................................................................................................................................................... 37
Even Partial Enactment Solves Shocks................................................................................................................................... 38
AT: Shocks Coming Too Soon .................................................................................................................................................. 40
Plan Means Fast Recovery from Shock ................................................................................................................................. 42
Plan Solves Peak......................................................................................................................................................................... 43
Plan  Energy Independence ................................................................................................................................................ 44
Plan Solves Shocks ..................................................................................................................................................................... 46
Must Act Now to Prevent Shocks ............................................................................................................................................ 47
High Risk of Pipeline Attack ...................................................................................................................................................... 49
Oil Shale Works ........................................................................................................................................................................... 51
Leads Fuel Farms: Solve Env. .................................................................................................................................................... 52
Plenty of Oil Shale ...................................................................................................................................................................... 53
Biomass Tech is Ready .............................................................................................................................................................. 54
AT: Biomass Bad ......................................................................................................................................................................... 55
Peak Coming Now .................................................................................................................................................................... 56
Shock Now .................................................................................................................................................................................. 57
Oil Shocks Crush Economy/Allied Cohesion ......................................................................................................................... 58
Shocks  Rate Hikes .................................................................................................................................................................. 59
Perception Shock Now ............................................................................................................................................................. 60
High Oil Prices Crushing Economy .......................................................................................................................................... 61
Supply Crunch is Real ................................................................................................................................................................ 62
Oil Prices Root Causes of Stagflation ..................................................................................................................................... 63
Oil Dependence Crushes Economy ...................................................................................................................................... 64
Short Term Peak Crushes Economy ........................................................................................................................................ 65
Plan Solves Embargoes ............................................................................................................................................................. 67
CTL Solves Oil Prices ................................................................................................................................................................... 68
CTL Prevent Shocks .................................................................................................................................................................... 69


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Sufficient Domestic Alt Liquid Fuels ........................................................................................................................................ 70
Economic Meltdown Coming ................................................................................................................................................. 71
Plan Key to Hegemony ............................................................................................................................................................. 72
Oil Dependence Crushes Readiness ..................................................................................................................................... 73
Plan Key to Tech Leadership ................................................................................................................................................... 74
Synthetic Fuels Work .................................................................................................................................................................. 75
Plan Solves Military Supply Lines .............................................................................................................................................. 76
CTL Key to Air Force ................................................................................................................................................................... 77
Air Power Key to Afghanistan .................................................................................................................................................. 82
Air Power Key to Iraq ................................................................................................................................................................. 83
Terrorism Add-On ....................................................................................................................................................................... 85
Oil Dependence Crushes Hegemony ................................................................................................................................... 86
Air Power Key to Hegemony .................................................................................................................................................... 87
Readiness Low Now ................................................................................................................................................................... 88
Readiness Solves Major Power War ........................................................................................................................................ 89
Air Force Readiness Low Now ................................................................................................................................................. 90
US Hegemony Prevents Nuclear War..................................................................................................................................... 91
Air Power Key to Iran Attack .................................................................................................................................................... 92
Supply Loss Would Crush Iraq War Effort ............................................................................................................................... 94
Plan Solves Readiness Quickly ................................................................................................................................................. 95
Air Power Key to Hegemony .................................................................................................................................................... 96
CTL Solves Readiness ................................................................................................................................................................. 97
CTL Key the B.U.F.F. .................................................................................................................................................................... 99
Extended Contracts Key to BUFF .......................................................................................................................................... 100
Plan Solves Readiness Quickly ............................................................................................................................................... 101
Status Quo Tech Solves Env. Impacts .................................................................................................................................. 102
Diversified Plan Solves CO2 Emissions .................................................................................................................................. 103
New Tech Solves Pollution ...................................................................................................................................................... 104
No Habitat Damage ............................................................................................................................................................... 105
No Climate Impact .................................................................................................................................................................. 107
Plan Solves Your Econ DA....................................................................................................................................................... 108
Plan Key to Jobs ....................................................................................................................................................................... 109
Subsidies Not Key ..................................................................................................................................................................... 111
DoD Want Alt Liquid Fuels ...................................................................................................................................................... 112
Plan Solves Short Term Production ........................................................................................................................................ 113
EOR Competitive Now ............................................................................................................................................................ 114
Plan Key to EOR ........................................................................................................................................................................ 115
EOR Key to US Oil Output ....................................................................................................................................................... 116
AT: EOR Bad .............................................................................................................................................................................. 118
Sequestering Solves Emissions ................................................................................................................................................ 119
AT: Not Enough Space for Sequestering ............................................................................................................................. 120
Status Quo is Carbon Capture .............................................................................................................................................. 121
Agriculture Add-On ................................................................................................................................................................. 122
Ag Extensions ............................................................................................................................................................................ 123
Sequestering Solves Climate ................................................................................................................................................. 124
Sequestering Boosts Ag .......................................................................................................................................................... 126
Sequestering Boosts Economy .............................................................................................................................................. 127
Plan Costs Less Than Status Quo ........................................................................................................................................... 128
Free Markets Fail ....................................................................................................................................................................... 129
AT: Regulations/Negative Incentive CP .............................................................................................................................. 131
Politics: Plan is Bipart ................................................................................................................................................................ 132
Politics: Plan is Popular ............................................................................................................................................................ 133
AT: Spending ............................................................................................................................................................................. 134

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AT: CHINA CP ............................................................................................................................................................................ 135
AT: BackStopping ..................................................................................................................................................................... 136
AT: Mining Bad .......................................................................................................................................................................... 137
AT: China ................................................................................................................................................................................... 138
Africa Add-On .......................................................................................................................................................................... 139
Africa Cards .............................................................................................................................................................................. 140
Sea Lanes .................................................................................................................................................................................. 141
War Makes Alt Fuel Transition Impossible ............................................................................................................................ 142
Caspian Cards .......................................................................................................................................................................... 143
Supply Competition Impacts ................................................................................................................................................. 152
China-Supply Competition .................................................................................................................................................... 154
FYI-Text of Senate Bill ............................................................................................................................................................... 155
Plan Boosts Australia Economy ............................................................................................................................................. 156
China Warming Outweighs CTL ............................................................................................................................................ 157
We are T ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 158




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                                  1AC Plan
PLAN:
THE UNITED STATES FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SHOULD AMEND SECTION 2398(A) OF TITLE 10 OF
THE UNITED STATES CODE TO ALLOW THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE TO SIGN CONTRACTS FOR
ALTERNATIVE LIQUID FUELS FOR UP TO 25 YEARS.




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                                                                               Solvency
OBSERVATION 1 IS SOLVENCY. THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION IS BLOCKING EXTENSION OF U.S.
CONTRACTS OF ALTERNATIVE LIQUID FUELS. LONG-TERM CONTRACTS KEY TO AIR FORCE
SUPPLY LINES AND CREATING A NATIONAL ALTERNATIVE FUELS INDUSTRY
Dreazen in 8
U.S. Military Launches Alternative-Fuel Push Dependence on Oil Seen as Too Risky; B-1 Takes Test Flight, By YOCHI J. DREAZEN. Wall Street Journal, May 21.

Alternative fuels are part of a broader -- and not so long ago unlikely -- conversion by the military to "green"
initiatives. Producing synthetic fuel itself can cause more pollution than conventional fuel if the emissions aren't captured. But Army engineers also are pushing contractors to
build armored vehicles with hybrid engines. The Air Force is experimenting with making engine parts out of lighter metals such as titanium to boost fuel efficiency. In December, Nellis Air
Force Base near Las Vegas opened one of the largest solar arrays in the U.S., a 140-acre field of 72,000 motorized panels that powers the base and sells energy to nearby communities.
The Pentagon is soliciting bids for three similar arrays on other bases. The military even has begun looking into the possibility of building small nuclear-power plants on unused portions of its

                                    The Pentagon is hoping its push for alternative energy will feed
more remote bases, though it has no firm plans yet.

civilian applications as well. For synthetic fuel, the Air Force is working with aircraft manufacturers such as
Boeing Corp. and the Pratt & Whitney engine unit of United Technologies Corp. North
American synthetic-fuel processors including Rentech Inc., Baard Energy and Syntroleum
Corp. all operate or hope to build synthetic-fuel refineries to feed the military's growing thirst.
"Our goal is to drive the development of a market here in the U.S .," says Mr. Anderson. Military use of synthetic fuel faces
significant obstacles. The energy bill signed into law by President Bush last year included a clause preventing the government from buying the fuel if it emits more pollution than
petroleum. Manufacturers have promised to meet that target by recapturing carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses produced in refining. Without those efforts, synthetic fuel can

emit up to twice as much pollution in refining as conventional petroleum. Prices' Impact       Synthetic-fuel prices also need to fall: Formerly stratospheric, they're still
about 50% above the soaring prices for petroleum. That should happen if companies can begin operating commercial-

scale refineries, says David Berg, a policy analyst who studied the nascent synthetic-fuel market for the Energy Department in December. He estimated that commercial-
scale synthetic-fuel refineries would be able to sell artificial fuel for approximately $55 a barrel, less than half the current cost of conventional crude oil. But many in the

field say they're unwilling to invest the necessary billions until they can sign long-term
contracts with the government. Right now, the Air Force legally can sign deals only for five
years. It has asked the White House's Office of Management and Budget to seek congressional approval for the rule
change, but the Bush administration has yet to act on the request, Mr. Anderson says. "These plants are
not likely to get built without government help" such as guaranteed long-term contracts, says Mr.
Berg, who recently retired. "And they may not get built even then."


DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE CONTRACTING ABILITY SHOULD BE EXPANDED FROM 5 TO 25 YEARS
SSEB in 6
Southern States Energy Board. Executive Summary of The American Energy Security Study, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Executive%20Summary.pdf.

Total oil consumption by U.S. military forces is approximately 300,000 bpd. Through the development of BUFF
specifications, it is believed that a substantial portion of this requirement can be met with domestically

produced alternative liquid fuels. DOD desires to enter into long term contracts for the
purchase of alternative fuels made in the U.S. from domestic resources. This is part of DOD‘s
Total Energy Development (TED) Program, the stated mission of which is to ―catalyze industry development
and investment in [alternative] energy resources.‖ Congressional support is encouraged for
DOD‘s TED program, including extending its long-term contracting capabilities from five
years to as long as 25 years. It is recommended that appropriations and necessary authorizations and funding for these programs be given high priority.1
INCENTIVES ARE KEY TO GALVANIZE PRIVATE INDUSTRY—PLAN LEADS TO TOTAL CTL
REVOLUTION WITH EVEN SMALL GOVERNMENT INVESTMENT
Malloy in 8
Coal may hold solution to gas prices Monday, June 23, 2008m By Daniel Malloy, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette




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                a government-initiated spark could be the key to reinventing fuel in America,
Yet coal proponents say

and Wall Street capital will flood in as soon as a plant is demonstrated to be effective here.
"You provide government funding to get that first plant started, to get a demonstration ," said Dr.
Bajura. "Once you remove the aspect of uncertainty of design and show the plant can work

and be economical, you overcome fear about the plant being profitable. That would make
it possible to deploy more plants."

AND, CTL SOLVES FOREIGN OIL DEPENDENCE
Kraemer 6
Thomas G. Kraemer. 3/22/06. Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railway Co. ―Coal: America‘s Energy Future‖

The United States continues to increase its dependence on foreign oil as domestic
production declined by 11% from 2001 to 2005. Meanwhile, global demand is growing and concerns are mounting that world oil
production is depleting reserves at rates faster than replacement reserves can be deployed. Application of coal-to-liquids technologies

would move the United States toward greater energy security and relieve cost and supply
pressures on transportation fuels by producing 2.6 MMbbl/d of liquids. These steps would
enhance U.S. oil supply by 10% and utilize an additional 475 million tons of coal per year.
AND, ALTERNATIVE LIQUID FUELS SOLVE GEOPOLITICAL COMPETITION
Klare 2008
(Micheal T. Klare, The Nation’s defense correspondent, is professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College. “The New Geopolitics of Energy” The Nation. New York: May
19, 2008. Vol. 286, Iss. 19; pg. 18)

It is essential that America reverse the militarization of its dependence on imported energy and ease geopolitical competition
with China and Russia over control of foreign resources. Because this would require greater
investment in energy alternatives, it would also lead to an improved energy economy at
home (with lower prices in the long run) and a better chance at overcoming global warming.

AND, RENEWABLES DEVELOPMENT TAKES TOO LONG—MUST USE ALTERNATIVE FOSSIL FUELS TO
BRIDGE GAP
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

Technology offers great energy promise. One day it is likely that all of our energy needs will
be met by renewable and sustainable resources. Fossil fuels, after all, are finite resources, and
alternatives must ultimately be established. But this will take decades. For now, fossil fuels are
the lifeblood of our economy, our civilian transportation system, and our military. Developing
reliable, clean domestic sources of fuels will ensure economic prosperity and an improving
standard of living during the transition to a sustainable energy future.

AND, BIOFUELS CAN’T SOLVE ENERGY SECURITY WITHOUT CLT--ONLY CLT SERVE AS JET FUEL
Kriz 7
Margaret. Advocates say that liquefied coal could break America's addiction to foreign oil; critics warn that it could create twice as much greenhouse gas as petroleum. THE NATIONAL
JOURNAL January 6, 2007

But coal-to-liquids proponents call such criticism shortsighted. They argue that energy security is an
immediate problem that can't be solved by making cars more efficient, boosting the
amount of ethanol on the market, or waiting for breakthrough technologies for cars and
trucks. In fact, ethanol and other biofuels do not contain enough energy to be used as jet fuel,
according to Paul Bollinger, special assistant to the assistant secretary of the Air Force for
installations, environment, and logistics.




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PLAN ENDS THE AIR FORCE’S DEPENDENCE ON FOREIGN OIL
Macpherson.[Associated Press Writer]. October 7, 2007. [James. ―Air Force likes synthetic fuel from coal – but can it be made‖. The Bismarck Tribune.
http://www.bismarcktribune.com/articles/2007/10/07/news/state/140507.txt]

The Air Force said it spent $5.8 billion on fuel in fiscal 2006. When the price of a gallon of jet
fuel increases $1, it costs the Air Force $60 million, Billings said. More than half the crude used to
make military jet fuel comes from foreign sources, such as the Middle East and Venezuela , Billings
said. "It comes from a lot of places in the world where people don't necessarily like us that well

and that creates a set of vulnerabilities for the Air Force," Billings said. Tulsa, Okla.-based Syntroleum
Corp. produced the synthetic fuel used in the Air Force's B-52 trials over the past year. The Air Force said it spent $5
million on the tests, including some $2 million on the fuel, which worked out to about $20 a gallon. Syntroleum spokesman Gary Gamino said

the company has "mothballed" its demonstration plant in Oklahoma that produced the fuel. "Basically, we could not
afford to keep it running," Gamino said. The company now is focused on manufacturing synthetic jet fuel made from animal fats, greases, and vegetable oils, he
said. The company is supplying 500 gallons of the fuel to the Department of Defense for testing. Billings said the coal-based synthetic fuel to be tested in the C-17 and B-1 over the next
year was purchased in Malaysia, from Royal Dutch Shell PLC. The Air Force said it paid $1.3 million for 290,000 gallons of the fuel, 9,000 gallons of which will go to NASA for emissions testing.
Ward, of Headwaters, said his company's proposal for a North Dakota plant to convert coal into diesel and jet fuel has been changed to produce only gasoline. Headwaters, along with
Great River Energy, of Elk River, Minn., and Dallas-based North American Coal Corp. have formed American Lignite Energy LLC to oversee the $4 billion project in North Dakota. Ward said

                                                                 without price guarantees
coal-to-fuel plants are planned in some 20 states, and the majority of them hope the Pentagon will become a major customer. But

and long-term contracts by Congress, financing for the projects will be difficult, if not
impossible, he said.
EVEN IN WORST SHORT-TERM PEAK SCENARIO PLAN PREVENTS WORST IMPACTS FOR
BECOMING LONG TERM AND LEADING TO FAST RECOVERY
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

    while the AES initiatives will not be able to prevent most of the economic damage
Second,

occurring in 2010 from oil peaking, they will substantially lessen the subsequent adverse
impacts over the decade, and will reverse them by 2017. By the end of the decade they will
have more than alleviated the adverse impacts on GDP and employment, as well as making
the U.S. substantially more energy secure.




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                                                        ADV. 1 is the Air Force
FIRST, LOSS OF FUEL SUPPLY LINES DUE TO PEAK OIL OR DUE ARTIFICIAL SHOCKS LINES WOULD
CRUSH U.S. AIR POWER
DREAZEN ( Staff writer for the Wall Street Journal) May 21, 2008 (Yochi J, The Wall Street Journal, lexis Nexis
http://www.lexisnexis.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T4019535984&format=GNBFI&sort=BOOLEAN&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T40195359
87&cisb=22_T4019535986&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=304478&docNo=18)

                                                                                  Just as important,
Synthetic fuel, which can be made from coal or natural gas, is expensive now, but could cost far less than the current price of oil if it's mass-produced.

the military is increasingly concerned that its dependence on oil represents a strategic
threat. U.S. forces in Iraq alone consume 40,000 barrels of oil a day trucked in from
neighboring countries, and would be paralyzed without it. Energy-security advocates warn
that terrorist attacks on oil refineries or tankers could cripple military operations around the
world. "The endgame is to wean the dependence on foreign oil," says Air Force Assistant
Secretary William Anderson.
                                                                                                ……

                                                                                      the Air Force is working with aircraft
The Pentagon is hoping its push for alternative energy will feed civilian applications as well. For synthetic fuel,

manufacturers such as Boeing Corp. and the Pratt & Whitney engine unit of United Technologies Corp. North American synthetic-fuel
processors including Rentech Inc., Baard Energy and Syntroleum Corp. all operate or hope to build synthetic-fuel refineries to
feed the military's growing thirst. "Our goal is to drive the development of a market here in the
U.S.," says Mr. Anderson.
SECOND, LACK OF AVAILABLE FUEL IS ALREADY REDUCING AIR FORCE COMBAT PILOT
TRAINING AND CRUSHING AIR FORCE READINESS
Wicke 6
Russell Wicke (Tech. Sgt. at Air Combat Command Public Affairs) Air force Petroleum Agency: RISING FUEL COSTS TIGHTEN AIR FORCE BELT. 9/8/2006. Accessed on June 25, 2008.
<http://www.afpa.af.mil/news/story.asp?id=123051308>

The growing cost of crude oil combined with increasing fuel demands of the war on terrorism
are forcing Air Combat Command officials to brace for a budget crisis while looking for
future fuel alternatives. The Air Force paid approximately $4.2 billion for petroleum in fiscal 2005 -- almost $1.4 billion more than fiscal 2004, according to the 28th
edition of the Defense Energy Support Center Fact Book. The price of fuel has gone up even more since 2005. BP was the Defense Department's No. 1 fuel provider that year based
upon the lowest price, said Robert Wine, a BP spokesman. Mr. Wine attributed the rising cost of fuel to worldwide supply and demand, uncertainty in the petroleum market, and political
tension. Only 12 months ago the Air Force was paying approximately $1.74 per gallon for JP-8 (aviation fuel), said Sheila Flemings, ACC flying-hour cost program analyst. Today's price
reflects a 31 percent increase to $2.53 per gallon. The budget crisis of fiscal 2005 unfolded when the Air Force was paying the cheaper $1.74 per gallon. ACC faced a shortfall then of
$825 million in must-pay funds. That very year, Ms. Flemings said ACC consumed more than 501 million gallons of fuel alone. That comes out to more than $747 million spent on JP-8. Now,

                                                                                                                                                       The
with a 31-percent increase in fuel cost since that time and a budget that continues to shrink, the Air Force and ACC are required to make significant changes just to operate. "

shrinking budget has caused the Air Force to reduce the funding available for flying hours
used to train ACC aircrews," said John Cilento, ACC flying-hour program analyst. "ACC programs are based on the
minimum requirements to train our aircrews, so any reduction is a loss of an already maxed-
out training capability." Furthermore, Mr. Cilento said the Air Force Flying Hour Program budget will be reduced by 10 percent each year from fiscal 2008 to 2013.
This equates to an annual reduction of $280-million worth in flying for ACC. "The biggest drain on our (funding) support is the (war on terrorism) is either not fully funded, or funded very

                   The continual flying-hour cuts not only hurt training, but also lower the
late in the fiscal year," Ms. Flemings said.

combat readiness of the aircrews.




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SCENARIO ONE IS AFGHANISTAN. AIR RAIDS ARE ESSENTIAL TO GROUND TROOP SUCCESS IN
AFGHANISTAN
Associated Press (fox news writer) June 07, 2006 (Fox news, http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,198531,00.html)
Insurgents have mounted a spring offensive against the deployment of U.S.-led troops in the southern Afghan provinces of Helmand and Kandahar, drawing intense bombardments from

American warplanes. ….    In Afghanistan, much of the bombing has been done by U.S. B-1B Lancer
bombers that on May 1 replaced an outgoing fleet of the Air Force's aging B-52s. North said the air raids were being called for by
ground commanders seeking close air support — which includes bombing, strafing or other raids — and that B-1s and Air Force A-10 ground
attack jets were flying most of the sorties. The raids are concentrated in remote battlefields in southern and

eastern Afghanistan. "We've been called on in Afghanistan to have a wide range of effects,
and we have been dropping bombs in support of the ground component commander and
the Afghan national army. We've been having very good success."

AND, AIR POWER IS THE PIVOTAL ELEMENT IN THE AFGHANISTAN WAR—WE’LL LOSE WITHOUT IT
New Straits Times (Malaysia) December 15, 2006 Friday SECTION: LOCAL; Pg. 25 LENGTH: 855 words HEADLINE: One war the Americans can still win
NO one can return from visiting the front in Afghanistan without realising there is a very real
risk that the United States and Nato will lose their war with al-Qaeda, the Taliban and the
other Islamist movements fighting the Afghan government. Declassified intelligence made available during my trip there
showed that major al-Qaeda, Taliban, Haqqani Network and Hezb-i-Islami sanctuaries exist in Pakistan, and that the areas they operate in within Afghanistan have increased fourfold
over the last year. Indeed, a great many unhappy trends have picked up speed lately: US intelligence experts in Afghanis- tan report that suicide attacks rose from 18 in the first 11
months of 2005 to 116 in the first 11 months of 2006. Direct fire attacks went up from 1,347 to 3,824 in the same period. The number of attacks on Afghan forces increased from 713 to

                           Only the extensive use of American air power and intelligence
2,892, attacks on coalition forces from 919 to 2,496 .

assets has allowed the US to win this year's battles in the east. In the south, Britain has been unable to prevent a major increase in the Taliban's
presence.



AND, LOSING OF THE WAR IN AFGHANISTAN TO AFGHAN-PAKISTANI COOPERATION ON
TERRORISM
The Age in 7
http://www.theage.com.au/news/in-depth/on-the-brink/2007/09/29/1190486632951.html?page=fullpage, Sept. 29

A Western retreat or a deal with the Taliban would not only sell out the Afghan people , says Maley.
It would have grave risks in nuclear-armed Pakistan as well. "Giving the Taliban a place in
the sun at this point would simply be a recipe for … radical forces to claim even more active
roles in the Pakistan establishment, and for the emergence in perhaps 10 years of a Pakistan
government which would be very strong, and with a character we couldn't deal with any
more. "This would have the potential to become a terrorist-supporting state in a really strong
sense.
AND, A RETURN POWER BY THE TALIBAN LEADS TO INCREASED TERRORIST ATTACKS IN THE
KASHMIR
Council on Foreign Relations in 6
Kashmir Militant Extremists, http://www.cfr.org/publication/9135, July 12.

Do Islamist terrorists in Kashmir have ties to al-Qaeda? Yes. Many terrorists active in Kashmir
received training in the same madrasas, or Muslim seminaries, where Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters
studied, and some received military training at camps in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. Moreover, the
Kashmiri terrorists‘ leadership has al-Qaeda connections. The leader of the Harakat-ul-Mujahedeen group, Farooq Kashmiri Khalil,
signed al-Qaeda‘s 1998 declaration of holy war, which called on Muslims to attack all Americans and their allies. Maulana Masood Azhar, who founded the Jaish-e-Muhammad
organization, traveled to Afghanistan several times to meet Osama bin Laden. Azhar's group is suspected of receiving funding from al-Qaeda, U.S. and Indian officials say.




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AND, KASHMIR INSURGENCY AND TERRORIST ATTACKS ESCALATE QUICKLY TO NUCLEAR WAR
UPI in 4
December 18, 2004 Saturday 6:08 PM EST LENGTH: 970 words HEADLINE: Nuclear war a real fear in South Asia BYLINE: ANWAR IQBAL DATELINE: WASHINGTON, Dec. 18 BODY:

No conventional war between India and Pakistan will remain limited for long and will
gradually lead to a full-scale war and ultimately to a nuclear conflict, warns a study by a Pakistani defense official.
The study, presented recently at a Washington think-tank, looks at various scenarios that could lead to an all-out war between the two South Asian neighbors, which conducted a series
of nuclear tests in May 1998 and also possess nuclear-capable missiles. India and Pakistan have fought three wars since their independence from Britain in 1947 and are still engaged in

57-year-old conflict in the Himalayan valley of Kashmir which caused two of these three wars.    Most of the possible war scenarios discussed in this study
also focus on Kashmir where most international observers believe even a small conflict has the

potential of escalating into a full-fledged war. Recently, both India and Pakistan have agreed to
resolve their differences through dialogue and have taken several steps lessen tensions. The study
by the Pakistani defense official envisages possible Pakistani response to a various proposals being discussed in India's defense circles for dealing with the Kashmir insurgency, which

India blames on Pakistan-backed militants. The author, who wished not to be identified, argues that recently India has put forward the concept
of a limited conventional war aimed at achieving a specific political objective, such as putting down the uprising in Kashmir. But the author warns that what India may see as "a limited
conventional war," may not be accepted to Pakistan as such. "Similarly, what India defines as limited political perspective, may have a different implication for Pakistan," he adds. The

                                                                                        a limited war between
author points out that most Western analysts and scholars are not comfortable with India's limited war doctrine and they also believe that "

India and Pakistan cannot remain limited for long." Comparing nuclear policies of the two countries, the author says that the central
theme of Pakistan's nuclear policy guidelines is to act in a responsible manner and to exercise restraint in conduct of its deterrence policy. Pakistan, he said, also wants to ensure that its
nuclear capability does not pose any threat to non-nuclear weapon states in the region. "Pakistan's nuclear capability is very clear for deterrence of aggression and defense of its
sovereignty," the author said. India's declared nuclear doctrine, he said, is based on a posture of no first use of nuclear weapons. India, however, retains the option of using nuclear
weapons in retaliation against a nuclear, biological or chemical attack on Indian territory or on Indian forces anywhere. "India's doctrine contains an inbuilt offensive design. The most
dangerous aspect of this policy is that it keeps the option open for a conventional war against Pakistan," according to the author. Asked why Pakistan had used the option of a limited
conventional war in Kargil in 1999, the author said Kargil is part of Siachen sector where limited battles have continued since 1984. Kargil, he said, was a continuation of the same ongoing
skirmishes between India and Pakistan. The author then explains various options India may exercise for launching a limited conventional war against Pakistan. These include: -- Surgical
strikes conducted along the Line of Control in Kashmir against Pakistani troops and jihadi camps, which India says Pakistan is running on its side of Kashmir. The Indians have already
attacked along the LoC to prevent Kashmiri fighters from crossing into Indian Kashmir but never succeeded in acquiring the desired results. So far, India only uses artillery for launching
these surgical strikes into Pakistani Kashmir but under the new strategy they will also use air strikes for hitting targets across the LoC. -- Hot pursuits that include physically crossing the LoC
and battling envisaged jihadi camps or capturing certain areas. "It is an open option, says the author. "In any war scenario, India can use it." "But if they do so, Pakistan is not going to sit
quiet. It will be an act of war which will not remain limited and it can escalate to a full-scale war and ultimately it can lead to a nuclear conflict if Pakistan's national interests are
threatened," the author warns. -- Cold start strategy for which India has been raising eight to 10 combat groups to implement this new strategy. Each group will include forces from the
army and the air force and, if required, from the navy. Each combat group will have a hard-hitting force of 3,000-4,000 troops and it should be able to achieve its objective in 72 hours,
before Pakistan reacts or approaches the international community. The author says that Pakistan will not view an attack by this new force as a limited war. "For us it will be a full-scale
war, and Pakistan will respond with full resources, and if we fail to contain the Indians, the nuclear factor will definitely come in." Explaining how a conventional war can lead to a nuclear
conflict, the author says: "In a full conventional war, India has the potential to create impact. And if it does so, it will force Pakistan to use its nuclear option." Before the two countries
acquired nuclear capability, India's strategy was to invade Pakistan and divide it into north and south. By severing all links between the two parts of the country, India hoped to force

                                    The Indians, the author said, also are considering a number of other options
Pakistan to negotiate peace on New Delhi's terms.

for launching a fast but effective incursion into Pakistan without causing a full-scale war. "But
in the final analysis," he said, "all options to initiate war by India may look independent and
workable but ultimately will lead to the same destination which both sides would like to
avoid as responsible nuclear states."

SCENARIO TWO IS IRAQ. AIR POWER IS KEY IN IRAQ BECAUSE IRAQI MILTIAS CAN’T BRING
DOWN PLANES
Roberts 2008 (Associate Editor of the Wall Street Journal editorial page and Contributing Editor of National Review, He has been awarded the U.S. Treasury's Meritorious
Service Award) April, 16 (The Populist Party, The End of U.S. Hegemony, http://www.populistamerica.com/the_end_of_us_hegemony)

The Shi'ite militias and the Sunni insurgents are armed with weapons available from the
unsecured weapon stockpiles of Saddam Hussein's army. If Iran were arming Iraqis, the Iraqi insurgents and militias would have
armor-piercing rocket-propelled grenades and surface-to-air missiles. These two weapons would neutralize the US advantage by enabling Iraqis to destroy US helicopter gunships, aircraft

and tanks. The Iraqis cannot mass their forces as they have no weapons against US air power.                                                                                          To
destroy US tanks, Iraqis have to guess the roads US vehicles will travel and bury bombs constructed from artillery shells. The inability to directly attack armor and to defend against air
attack denies offensive capability to Iraqis.



AND, AIR POWER KEY TO THE WAR IRAQ
Analyst redefines role of air power The Montgomery Advertiser (Alabama) April 18, 2008 Friday

Benjamin Lambeth is an air power expert. He writes for RAND Corp ., a national nonprofit research institution that focuses on
national security. He earned a doctorate from Harvard University and worked for the Central Intelligence Agency during the Cold War. This week, Lambeth was at Maxwell Air Force
Base for a meeting of the board of visitors at Air University. Lambeth decided to make the most of his trip and visit with students from some of Air University's schools, researchers with the
Air Force Doctrine Development and Education Center, and officials from the soon-to-be-created Air Force Research Institute. Lambeth has made many trips to Maxwell, and some of his



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                          His current research focuses on the use of air power in the current operations --
books are required reading.

counterinsurgency and irregular warfare. Air power is a component that often goes
unnoticed in war coverage, Lambeth said, mostly because journalists aren't in the planes. Reporters are primarily embedded with ground units, so those stories
dominate the headlines. "Air power is contributing to operations in Iraq and Afghanistan in a very important way

that a lot of people are not aware of because they just don't see it," he said. Lambeth said he's working on a new
book, "The Unseen War," which is about the first three weeks of the conflict in Iraq that focuses on the air power component. "I'm trying to fill that gap by explaining what air power

brought to that fight, because   it's vital and it's pivotal to what they're doing in Iraq and Afghanistan," he said.

AND, LOSING GROUND IN IRAQ LEADS TO WAR WORLD THREE
Corsi in 7
Jerome, http://worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?article_id=53669, Jan 8.

If a broader war breaks out in Iraq, Olmert will certainly face pressure to send the Israel
military into the Gaza after Hamas and into Lebanon after Hezbollah. If that happens, it will
only be a matter of time before Israel and the U.S. have no choice but to invade Syria. The
Iraq war could quickly spin into a regional war, with Israel waiting on the sidelines ready to
launch an air and missile strike on Iran that could include tactical nuclear weapons . With Russia ready
to deliver the $1 billion TOR M-1 surface-to-air missile defense system to Iran, military leaders are unwilling to wait too long to attack

Iran. Now that Russia and China have invited Iran to join their Shanghai Cooperation Pact,
will Russia and China sit by idly should the U.S. look like we are winning a wider regional war
in the Middle East? If we get more deeply involved in Iraq, China may have their moment to
go after Taiwan once and for all. A broader regional war could easily lead into a third world
war, much as World Wars I and II began. Odds are that we will not enter 2008 with all three of these leaders – Bush, Olmert, and Ahmadinejad –
as heads of state. If President Bush does go the military route in the Middle East, he will bet his presidency on that decision.



SCENARIO THREE IS LEADERSHIP. US AIR POWER KEY TO HEGEMONY.
Byman, Waxman, and Shapiro 2002 (writers for the RAND corporation) (Daniel, Matthew, and Jeremy, Strategic Appraisal: United States Air and Space
Power in the 21st Century, http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1314/MR1314.ch3.pdf)

Against a range of potential adversaries, theUnited States will continue to have the capacity to bring
massive airpower to bear and to do so without the realistic threat of retaliation in kind.21 U.S.
political leaders can therefore be expected to continue to call frequently on airpower for
coercive purposes. As the previous section illustrates, how ever, the potential magnitude of force brought to bear is just one small
component of the coercion process. To take full advantage of its capabilities, the United States must recognize that its
self-imposed limits often prevent the success of coercion and provide opportunities for
adversaries.




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AND, HEGEMONY SOLVES NUCLEAR WAR
Khalilzad in 95 (Zalmay, Washington Quarterly, Spring, LN)
Under the third option, the United States would seek to retain global leadership and to preclude the
rise of a global rival or a return to multipolarity for the indefinite future. On balance, this is the best
long-term guiding principle and vision. Such a vision is desirable not as an end in itself, but because a world in which the
United States exercises leadership would have tremendous advantages. First, the global environment would be more
open and more receptive to American values -- democracy, free markets, and the rule of
law. Second, such a world would have a better chance of dealing cooperatively with the
world's major problems, such as nuclear proliferation, threats of regional hegemony by renegade states, and low-level conflicts.
Finally, U.S. leadership would help preclude the rise of another hostile global rival, enabling the
United States and the world to avoid another global cold or hot war and all the attendant dangers, including a global
nuclear exchange. U.S. leadership would therefore be more conducive to global stability than a bipolar or a multipolar balance
of power system.




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                                                           Adv.2 is The Caspian
FIRST, THE U.S. MUST ADOPT NEW FUEL SOURCES OR OIL DEPLETION WILL FORCE THE U.S. TO
FIGHT FOR ACCESS TO OIL SUPPLIES IN THE CASPIAN AGAINST RUSSIA AND CHINA
Freeman in 4
Robert. ―Will the end of Oil the End of America?‖ Commondreams.org, March 1

If the US economy is not to grind to a halt under these circumstances it must choose one of
three alternate strategies: dramatically lower its living standards (something it is not willing to do); substantially
increase the energy efficiency of its economy; or make up the shortfall by securing supplies
from other countries. President Bush‘s National Energy Policy published in March 2001 explicitly commits the US
to the third choice: Grab the Oil. It is this choice that is now driving US military and national
security policy. And, in fact, the past 60 years of US policy in the Middle East can only be
understood as the effort to control access to the world‘s largest supply of oil. Witness , for example,
the deep US embrace of Saudi Arabia since World War II . One quarter of all US weapons sales between 1950 and 2000 went to
Saudi Arabia despite its horrifically repressive, literally medieval tribal nature. The CIA‘s overthrow of Mohamed Mosadegh in Iran in 1953 after he nationalized his country‘s oil is another
example. So, too, was the US strategic embrace of Israel during the 1967 Six Day War. The US was deeply mired in Vietnam but needed a ―cop on the beat‖ to challenge Arab states—

                                                                                               More recent examples of national strategy in bondage to the
Egypt, Iraq, Syria, Yemen—that were ―going Soviet.‖ It has stuck with that relationship ever since.

                 include US support for Saddam Hussein in the Iran/Iraq War; its support for Osama bin Laden in the Afghanistan
compulsion for oil

War against the Soviet Union; and, of course, the most recent invasion of Iraq to seize its oilfields and forward position US

forces for an invasion of neighboring Saudi Arabia when it is inevitably destroyed by internal civil war. And under a Grab the Oil strategy, militarization of US society will only deepen.
The reason is that a very major portion of the world‘s oil is, by accident of geology, in the hands of states
hostile to the US. Fully 60% percent of the world‘s proven reserves of oil are in the Persian Gulf.
They lie beneath Muslim countries undergoing a religious revolution that wants to return the industrial world to a pre-
modern order governed by a fundamentalist Islamic theocracy. Saudi Arabia alone controls 25% of all the world‘s oil, more than that of North America, South America, Europe and Africa
combined. Kuwait, Iran and Iraq, each control approximately 10% of the world‘s oil. Another 15% of the world‘s oil lies in the Caspian Sea region, also a dominantly Muslim region. It
includes a group of post-Soviet, satellite and buffer states that lack any semblance of legal or market systems. They are extraordinarily corrupt, really just Gangster Thugocracies
masquerading as countries. Think Afghanistan. Both Russia and China consider this region part of their ―sphere of strategic influence‖ portending significant clashes for the US over coming

      As long as the US chooses the Grab the Oil alternative, the implications for national
decades.

policy are inescapable. The combination of all these facts—fixed supply, rapid depletion,
lack of alternatives, severity of consequences, and hostility of current stockholding
countries—drive the US to HAVE to adopt an aggressive (pre-emptive) military posture and to carry
out a nakedly colonial expropriation of resources from weaker countries around the world. This is why the US operates some 700 military bases around the world and spends over half a
trillion dollars per year on military affairs, more than all the rest of the world—its ―allies‖ included—combined. This is why the Defense Department‘s latest Quadrennial Review stated, ―The
US must retain the capability to send well-armed and logistically supported forces to critical points around the globe, even in the face of enemy opposition.‖ This is why Pentagon brass

                                                                                                             But the
say internally that current force levels are inadequate to the strategic challenges they face and that they will have to re-instate the draft after the 2004 elections.

provocation occasioned by grabbing the oil, especially from nations ideologically hostile to
the US, means that military attacks on the US and the recourse to military responses will only
intensify until the US is embroiled in unending global conflict. This is the perverse genius of the Grab the Oil strategy: it comes
with its own built-in escalation, its own justification for ever more militarization—without limit. It will blithely consume the entire US economy, the entire society, without being sated. It is, in
homage to Orwell, Perpetual War for Perpetual Grease.




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SECOND, FOREIGN OIL DEPENDENCE WILL LEAD TO US-RUSSIA-CHINA OIL CONFLICTS IN
CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CASPIAN SEA
Klare 8
(Micheal T. Klare, The Nation’s defense correspondent, is professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College. “The New Geopolitics of Energy” The Nation. New York: May
19, 2008. Vol. 286, Iss. 19; pg. 18)

No other major power is capable of matching the United States when it comes to the global
deployment of military power in the pursuit or protection of vital raw materials. Nevertheless,
other powers are beginning to challenge this country in various ways. In particular, China and Russia are
providing arms to oil and gas producers in the developing world and beginning to enhance
their military capacity in key energy-producing areas. Much the same process is under way in Central Asia, where
China and Russia cooperate under the auspices of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
(SCO) to provide arms and technical assistance to the military forces of the Central Asia n "stans"--
again competing with the United States to win the loyalty of local military elites. In the 1990s Russia was too
preoccupied with Chechnya to pay much attention to this area, and China was likewise consumed with other priorities, so Washington enjoyed a temporary advantage; in the past five

         Moscow and Beijing have made concerted efforts to gain influence in the region.
years, however,

The result has been a far more competitive geopolitical environment, with Russia and China,
linked through the SCO, gaining ground in their drive to diminish US influence. These and
other efforts by Russia and China, combined with stepped-up US military aid to states in the
region, are part of a larger, though often hidden, struggle to control the flow of oil and
natural gas from the Caspian Sea basin to markets in Europe and Asia. And this struggle, in turn, is but part of a global
struggle over energy.




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THIRD, SECURING OUR OIL SUPPLY WILL INEVITABLY LEADS TO LOW LEVEL CONFLICTS IN WHICH
ESCALATES TO A RUSSIA-US WAR.
Klare 2008
(Micheal T. Klare, The Nation’s defense correspondent, is professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College. “The New Geopolitics of Energy” The Nation. New York: May
19, 2008. Vol. 286, Iss. 19; pg. 18)

The great risk is that this struggle will someday breach the boundaries of economic and
diplomatic competition and enter the military realm. This will not be because any of the
states involved make a deliberate decision to provoke a conflict with a competitor --the leaders of
all these countries know that the price of violence is far too high to pay for any conceivable return. The problem, instead, is
that all are engaging in behaviors that make the outbreak of inadvertent escalation ever
more likely. These include, for example, the deployment of growing numbers of American, Russian and
Chinese military instructors and advisers in areas of instability where there is every risk that
these outsiders will someday be caught up in local conflicts on opposite sides. The danger, of
course, is that the great powers will be sucked into these internal conflicts . This is not a far-fetched scenario;
the United States, Russia and China are already providing arms and military-support services
to factions in many of these disputes. The United States is arming government forces in Nigeria and Angola, China is
aiding government forces in Sudan and Zimbabwe, and so on. An even more dangerous situation prevails in
Georgia, where the United States is backing the pro-Western government of President Mikhail Saakashvili
with arms and military support while Russia is backing the breakaway regions of Abkhazia
and South Ossetia. Georgia plays an important strategic role for both countries because it
harbors the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, a US-backed conduit carrying Caspian Sea oil
to markets in the West. There are US and Russian military advisers/instructors in both areas, in some
cases within visual range of each other. It is not difficult, therefore, to conjure up scenarios in which a future
blow-up between Georgian and separatist forces could lead, willy-nilly, to a clash between
American and Russian soldiers, sparking a much greater crisis.




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                                                                    The Blank Card
THIS ENERGY COMPETITION IN THE CASPIAN IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR A MAJOR
POWER NUCLEAR WAR
Blank in 2000
Steven J. Blank is the Douglas MacArthur Professor of Research at the U.S. Army War College and has been an Associate Professor of Russia/Soviet Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institutes.
―US Military Engagement with Trancaucasia and Central Asia,‖ Strategic Studies Institute, June, http://carlisle-www.army.mil/usassi/welcome.htm.

Russia‘s drive for hegemony over the Transcaucasus and Central Asia therefore led those states and interested foreign powers to an equal
and opposing reaction that has blunted the Russian drive. Baku, Erevan, Tashkent, Astana, and Tbilisi, to a greater or lesser
degree, are seeking a Western counterbalance to Moscow, which the West, especially Ankara and Washington, are all too happy to provide.68 Central Asia has also

turned to China, the United States, and Iran in energy and economics, is exploring forms of

regional cooperation, and has begun to build its own national militaries to escape from
Russia‘s shadow. Apart from expanded trade and commercial relations and support for infrastructural projects beyond the energy and pipeline business, Turkey trains
Azerbaijani troops and provides economic-political assistance to Georgia and Azerbaijan. Other Western powers, especially France and Great Britain, also display a rising regional profile.

Washington‘s burgeoning military-political-economic involvement seeks, inter alia, to demonstrate
the U.S. ability to project military power even into this region or for that matter, into Ukraine where NATO recently
held exercises that clearly originated as an anti-Russian scenario. Secretary of Defense William Cohen has discussed strengthening U.S.-Azerbaijani military cooperation and even training
the Azerbaijani army, certainly alarming Armenia and Russia.69 And Washington is also training Georgia‘s new Coast Guard. 70 However, Washington‘s well-known ambivalence about

                                                                   U.S. military power will not be easily committed to saving
committing force to Third World ethnopolitical conflicts suggests that

its economic investment. But this ambivalence about committing forces and the dangerous
situation, where Turkey is allied to Azerbaijan and Armenia is bound to Russia, create the
potential for wider and more protracted regional conflicts among local forces . In that connection,
Azerbaijan and Georgia‘s growing efforts to secure NATO‘s lasting involvement in the region,
coupled with Russia‘s determination to exclude other rivals, foster a polarization along very
traditional lines.71 In 1993 Moscow even threatened World War III to deter Turkish intervention on
behalf of Azerbaijan. Yet the new Russo-Armenian Treaty and Azeri-Turkish treaty suggest that
Russia and Turkey could be dragged into a confrontation to rescue their allies from defeat. 72
Thus many of the conditions for conventional war or protracted ethnic conflict in which third
parties intervene are present in the Transcaucasus. For example, many Third World conflicts generated by
local structural factors have a great potential for unintended escalation. Big powers often feel obliged

to rescue their lesser proteges and proxies. One or another big power may fail to grasp the
other side‘s stakes since interests here are not as clear as in Europe. Hence commitments
involving the use of nuclear weapons to prevent a client‘s defeat are not as well established
or apparent. Clarity about the nature of the threat could prevent the kind of rapid and
almost uncontrolled escalation we saw in 1993 when Turkish noises about intervening on behalf of Azerbaijan led Russian leaders to
threaten a nuclear war in that case. 73 Precisely because Turkey is a NATO ally, Russian nuclear
threats could trigger a potential nuclear blow (not a small possibility given the erratic nature of Russia‘s declared nuclear strategies). The
real threat of a Russian nuclear strike against Turkey to defend Moscow‘s interests and forces
in the Transcaucasus makes the danger of major war there higher than almost everywhere
else. As Richard Betts has observed, The greatest danger lies in areas where (1) the potential for serious instability is high; (2) both superpowers perceive vital interests; (3) neither
recognizes that the other‘s perceived interest or commitment is as great as its own; (4) both have the capability to inject conventional forces; and, (5) neither has willing proxies capable
of settling the situation.74 Russian perceptions of the Transcaspian‘s criticality to its interests is tied to its continuing efforts to perpetuate and extend the vast disproportion in power it

                                                                                 no natural
possesses relative to other CIS states. This power and resource disproportion between Russia and the smaller states of the Transcaspian region means that

equilibrium is possible there. Russia neither can be restrained nor will it accept restraint by
any local institution or power in its pursuit of unilateral advantage and reintegration . 75




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                                  INH: No Long Term Contracts Now
COMPANIES ARE READY TO PRODUCE ALTERNATIVE LIQUID FUELS BUT WON’T ACT UNTIL LONG-
TERM CONTRACTING GUARANTEES A CUSTOMER
Dreazen in 8
U.S. Military Launches Alternative-Fuel Push Dependence on Oil Seen as Too Risky; B-1 Takes Test Flight, By YOCHI J. DREAZEN. Wall Street Journal, May 21.

      Baard Energy of Vancouver had said it would build the first commercial-scale
In late 2006,

synthetic-fuel refinery in the U.S., to be completed in 2012. Chief Executive John Baardson says he decided to roll the dice on the
$6 billion plant because of the military's interest. "There isn't a market for this right now, so it takes a little bit of faith to get these plants going," he says. "Knowing the military was out there

                                  But other companies haven't followed suit. Syntroleum shut
took one huge risk factor out of the decision-making process."

down the plant that produced the fuel used in the B-52 test flight; it had only been designed
to produce small samples for experiments. Rentech is building a new refinery in Colorado,
but its plant also is meant to only refine minute samples of synthetic fuel. "It's a chicken and
egg thing: We'll build a larger plant if we can get the money to finance it and find customers
willing to buy what it produces," says Rick Penning, Rentech's executive vice president of commercial affairs. The pure synthetic fuel Syntroleum sold the Air
Force for the B-52 test flight in 2006 cost almost $20 a gallon. Its price since has come down sharply, but the synthetic product used in the B-1 supersonic test in March still cost $4.62 a
gallon. It was mixed with petroleum fuel costing $3.04 a gallon, according to government officials.




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                        Plan Solves National Oil Dependency
CTL USE BY THE AIR FORCE SPILLS OVER.
Associated Press. March 22, 2008. [―Air Force Plans to Switch Fuel for Coal‖. Associated Press. Military.com.
http://www.military.com/NewsContent/0,13319,164531,00.html]

With the Air Force paving the way, Anderson said the private sector would follow - from
commercial air fleets to long-haul trucking companies. "Because of our size, we can move
the market along," he said. "Whether it's (coal-based) diesel that goes into Wal-Mart trucks or jet
fuel that goes into our fighters, all that will reduce our dependence on foreign oil, which is
the endgame." Coal producers have been unsuccessful in prior efforts to cultivate such a market. Climate change worries prompted Congress last year to turn back an
attempt to mandate the use of coal-based synthetic fuels.


LONG-TERM CONTRACTING SPARKS DOMESTIC ALTERNATIVE FUEL PRODUCTION FOR US
MILITARY AND ENTIRE US ECONOMY
American Energy Security in 6
Summary of Fiscal, Tax, Legislative, and Regulatory Recommendations, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/leg_12initiatives.html#6,

Total oil consumption by U.S. military forces is approximately 400,000 barrels per day. Through the
development of BUFF specifications, it is believed that a substantial portion of this requirement can be
met with domestically produced alternative liquid fuels. The DoD desires to enter into long
term contracts for the purchase of alternative fuels made in the U.S. from domestic
resources. This is part of DoD‘s Total Energy Development Program (TED), with a stated mission to
―catalyze industry development and investment in [alternative] energy resources.‖
Congressional support is encouraged for DoD‘s TED program, including extending its long-
term contracting capabilities from five to as long as 25 years. Appropriate and necessary
authorizations and funding should be give high priority. DoD fuels purchases under long-term
contract can help establish a foundation on which to build a new alternative fuels industry.
And secure, high quality U.S. made alternative liquid fuels will help our military.




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                                     Plan Solves Air Force Readiness
CONTRACT EXTENTION KEY TO AIR FORCE READINESS
Write and Johnson 2006
Charlotte Wright, Regina Johnson (Managing Editors)―DoD's use of coal-derived fuels could be cornerstone of fledging industry‖ Platts Coal Outlook. June 26, 2006. Accessed on: June 27,
2008.<http://www.lexisnexis.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T4054364985&format=GNBFI&sort=BOOLEAN&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T40
54364990&cisb=22_T4054364989&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=7932&docNo=9> nexis

         the Air Force Office of Scientific Research funded research on jet fuel comparable to present fuels
In the meantime,

but developed from 50% bituminous coal. The fuel produced has successfully powered a helicopter
jet engine, said Harold Schobert, professor of fuel science and director of Pennsylvania State University's Energy Institute. "We have shown in tests that the mix can go to at least
75% coal." The derived fuel is lower in aromatics, almost sulfur free and produces almost the same Btu value as conventional fuel. Since Schobert announced his research at the
American Chemical Society meeting in March, he has had some interest from companies about the process. "We have had an on-going dialog with a small refinery in northwestern
Pennsylvania about their being the first to commercialize production," and two major oil companies and one major airline have expressed interest. 'However, nobody has actually put
any cash on the table yet, so to speak," he told Platts in mid-June. Because the fuel has not been made on a large scale, Schobert is not sure about costs. "However, back-of-the-

envelope  calculations suggest that we should be fairly competitive in price                                                                       . For instance, refined chemical oil,
purchased in large quantities, is currently about $1/gallon. It represents 50% of the fuel." Refined chemical oil is the coal-derived ingredient in the fuel. It is a by-product of the
metallurgical coke industry. Because it is supply-limited, Schobert's group is working on alternative routes to making the chemical equivalent of refined chemical oil. Starting in July, the
Air Force will be developing a business case analysis of the fuel and its production, giving a better idea of actual costs in 2007, he said. As for the future of the fuel JP-900, Schobert said it
could be several years before the fuel is produced because the fuel must be qualified for use, which requires more testing. If the fuel is accepted for use, and full-scale production is
warranted, "we envision that this fuel can be produced in existing oil refinery infrastructure, albeit with some modifications." He estimates one to two years for those modifications. In a
national emergency, both processes could be greatly speeded up with a mandated crash program to get JP-900 into production and use. Schobert and co-workers are negotiating with
the Air Force now to fund the next, larger volume of production, probably in late 2006 or early 2007. The Southern States Energy Board recommended last week that Congress fully fund a
DoD fuel testing program at a cost of $500 million for five to six years, starting in 2007. DoD consumes about 400,000 b/d of oil, the SSEB said. The nonprofit that studies energy policy and

                                                                    The long-term DoD fuels
reliability believes "that a substantial portion of this requirement can be met with domestically produced alternative liquid fuels."

contracts are part of the Total Energy Development Program with a mission of catalyzing
"industry development and investment in [alternative] energy resources." The board
recommended allowing DoD contracts to extend from five to 25 years, which would help
establish the CTL fuels industry and deliver "secure, high quality US made alternative liquid
fuels [that] will help our military."




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                                          CTL Solves Oil Dependence
CTL KEY TO SOLVE U.S. FOREIGN OIL DEPENDENCE
Ken K. Robinson, David E. Tatterson. Feb 26, 2007. President of Mega-Carbon Co. ―Fischer-Tropsch oil-from-coal promising as transport fuel.‖

Although the US has only 2% of global oil reserves, it has 27% of the coal reserves and is frequently
referred to as ―the Saudi Arabia of coal‖ (Fig. 1). Table 1 shows the top three coal-rich states and their estimated reserves. Although coal is not the

single answer to broadening the US energy portfolio, it certainly is abundant enough to have an important positive

impact on fuel supply because the US depends almost entirely on crude oil for its
transportation fuels. This reliance, particularly on imported crude oil, has caused problems for the
US. Not only does it affect it economically in its balance of trade but, more significantly,
contributes to major foreign policy issues between the US and countries that exploit their oil
power.
COAL TO LIQUID SOLVES FOREIGN OIL DEPENDENCE AND BOOSTS THE ECONOMY
Ken K. Robinson, David E. Tatterson. Feb 26, 2007. President of Mega-Carbon Co. ―Fischer-Tropsch oil-from-coal promising as transport fuel.‖

The potential of coal is a resource base that can reduce such countries‘ dependence on foreign oil. The US,

in particular, has sufficient coal reserves to reduce oil imports, which are becoming a political

liability. Converting coal to liquids via gasification followed by F-T (indirect liquefaction) is advisable for the
following reasons: (1)The technology is commercially demonstrated ; there are several commercial plants in operation
around the world today. (2) The potential for an environmentally green process is exceptional. (3)

Integration with other technologies such as IGCC and EOR is significant. (4) The CO2 produced is a
potentially important revenue stream in any coal gasification plant. Its value depends on nearby oil fields that are
suited to EOR by CO2 injection. Considerable work has been done to determine that many oil fields are suitable for EOR using CO2 flooding. These same studies need to be carried out
on other oil fields.




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THE PLAN USES OF STATUS QUO TECHNOLOGIES IN NEW WAYS TO SOLVE POLLUTON AND
GREENHOUSE EMISSIONS
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

Modern alternative fuels processes have evolved to the point where they are
environmentally clean and lend themselves to the capture of undesirable residuals such as
SO2, NOx, CO2, and mercury. Virtually all emissions can be reduced by the implementation
of an aggressive, well-planned development of alternative fuels. The various energy
utilization and conversion technologies that have been developed in recent years employ
the best techniques for eliminating pollutants and for making the capture of CO2 much
easier.
CTL SOLVES EMISSIONS
Ratafia-Brown in 7
Jay, Senior Engineering and Supervisor, Science Applications International Corp. Senate Hearing 110, May 24, 2007, Hearing before the committee on energy and natural resources
Untied States senate one hundred tenth congress first session, ―Coal Gasification‖, U.S. government printing office Washington: 2007




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THROUGH COAL TO LIQUID AND SEQUESTERING TECHNOLOGIES, IT IS POSSIBLE TO EXPAND USE
OF COAL USE WHILE REDUCING CARBON EMISSIONS
Salazar 7
Ken, Senator (R)-Colorado Senate Hearing 110, May 24, 2007, Hearing before the committee on energy and natural resources Untied States senate one hundred tenth congress first
session, ―Coal Gasification‖, U.S. government printing office Washington: 2007




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THE PLAN IS NEAR-ZERO EMISSION—DOMESTIC ALTERNATIVE FUEL PRODUCTION KEY TO SPARK
NEAR-ZERO EMISSION ENERGY PRODUCTION
Southern States Energy Board in 6
The American Energy Security Study, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/leg_brief.html.

By producing environmentally superior transportation fuels from near-zero emissions plants
(which can recycle, utilize, and/or safely sequester CO2), the United States will set an
example for the world. Liquid fuels produced from coal , oil shale, and biomass have very low to
zero sulfur, low particulate and NOx emissions, and higher performance characteristics than
their conventional distillate counterparts. In addition, the plants that produce the liquids can
be carbon-capture capable.
CTL USES FISCHER-TROPSCH METHOD TO REDUCE CO2, NOX AND PARTICULATE MATTER
EMISSIONS
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

Transitioning from petroleum-based to Fischer Tropsch produced diesel and jet fuel from
coal-to-liquids, biomass-to-liquids, and oil shale-to-liquids plants will result in net environmental improvements through
reductions in air emissions and improved operational efficiency of diesel and jet engines. FT
produced diesel and jet fuels are ultra-clean, biodegradable, and low in particulate matter
and are essentially sulfur free. When these fuels are combusted they produce very low
particulate and NOx emissions and essentially zero SO2 emissions. Cetane for middle distillates is equivalent to octane for
gasoline, and the ―cetane‖ rating is the diesel equivalent of the ―octane‖ rating for gasoline performance. FT fuels have a much higher cetane

quality than standard petroleum middle distillates and thus burn more efficiently, increasing
overall engine performance -- which translates into lower emissions per mile traveled,
including CO2.


CTL TECHNIQUES ARE MUCH CLEANER IN ALL EMISSIONS THAN STATUS QUO AND CAPTURE
SOLVES ATMOSPHERE EMISSIONS
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

The direct environmental impacts associated with the gasification of coal, biomass, and oil
shale into transportation fuels are significantly less than those that result from traditional
pulverized coal combustion. Gasification technology, in conjunction with syngas clean-up
systems, enables the sulfur and the heavy metals, including mercury contained in the coal,
to be removed in forms that are not emitted to the atmosphere and can be further
processed into useful products.




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                                                            CTL Is Functional
CTL EMPIRICALLY PROVEN—NO LONG TERM GOVERNMENT ASSISTANCE
Southern States Energy Board in 6
The American Energy Security Study, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/leg_brief.html.

Commercial coal-to-liquid fuels (CTL) technologies have existed for decades. Sasol, a South
African company, currently provides almost 30 percent of that country‘s liquid fuel needs
through coal conversion. It does so, profitably, in the open market. America can and should
follow the Sasol model, which clearly demonstrates that it is not only possible but also highly
profitable to rapidly ramp-up production of high quality liquid fuels from domestic coal. Sasol was
created with support from government to decrease dependence on foreign oil. The company quickly outgrew its need for government assistance. Sasol serves as a model for America.




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                                       CTL  Energy Independence
CTL ALONE CAN SOLVE US IMPORT DEPENDENCE
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

In 2025 the SSEB American Energy Security initiatives will produce or save nearly six times the amount of oil
that the U.S. would be importing from the Middle East in that year. In fact, one of the options alone, coal-to-
liquids, would be providing twice the amount of liquid fuels required to make the U.S.
independent of oil imports from the Middle East in 2025. And each of the other initiatives would individually be producing or saving
about enough liquid fuels to make the U.S. independent of oil imports from the Middle East.




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                                              CTL Is a Renewable Bridge
CTL SOLVES OIL DEPENDENCE LEADS SERVES AT CRITICAL BRIDGE TO NASCENT RENEWABLE
ECONOMY
Malloy in 8
Coal may hold solution to gas prices Monday, June 23, 2008m By Daniel Malloy, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Dr. Bajura, whose department at WVU receives federal funding as well as support from oil and coal companies, sees coal-to-liquid technology
as a bridge from crude oil to sustainable energy. With current levels of use, American coal
reserves, which are the richest in the world, would be exhausted in 250 years. Doubling coal extraction to feed
liquid coal plants would give the nation 125 years to develop reliable renewable energy
sources. Increased efficiency is a good thing, Dr. Bajura said, but it is folly to think America's fuel
appetite will wane considerably before we run out of crude oil. "All forms of energy are
going to be needed, and what [environmentalists] advocate in terms of more efficiency,
that's not using fossil fuel, that's a good thing to do," he said. "But when you look at the total
scale of what we need to provide for our country in the United States, unless we want to
change our lifestyle, we are going to need all of these technologies as we move to more
unified policy in the future."
PLAN IS KEY THE DEVELOPMENT RENEWABLE—CTL IS A TEMPORARY BRIDGE AND HUGE
RESERVES CHECK PRICE SPIKES
Shapiro in 8
Sol. Coal-to-liquid holds promise. http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/jun/03/speakout-coal-to-liquid-holds-promise/, June 3.
As the author of this piece, let me answer some these inputs. - Oil is not a free market; so there is a need to protect the massive investment needed - the excist tax needed IF the price
goes $10 below $60 per barrel floor I've defined would be one cent per gallon of a 24 cent reduction for one million barrels per day; a small price for moving toward energy
independence. - On CO2 emissions; U.S. produces 25% of world emissions, 1/3 from oil; 1 million bbl/day is 1/20 of consumption: 1/4*1/3/1/20=1/240th or 0.4%. - On coal consumption,

           to replace all of our consumption would increase our production of coal; but for a start, it
you're right that

would not take much. In fact, it may be possible to go as far as all coal - if we want. I hope we won't need this. But for
example, doubling our coal production would produce about 7 million barrels per day . And frankly, it's

my dream to stop using coal for electricity production; and use it in this manner as a
TRANSITION fuel until we can produce renewable fuels. - As to the economic effect, the price of coal would
of course rise, but using western coal, there's a big cushion; and we will need to watch this. But compared with what we are
doing at $1.01 per gallon subsidy on cellulosic ethanol, what I'm suggesting as a start is economically benign. I don't offer a solution forever here. But why not include coal-to-liquid in our
future -- starting now?




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                                                         CTL Would Be Cheap
COAL TO LIQUIDS COULD COST HALF AS MUCH AS OIL
Malloy (staff writer for Pittsburgh Post Gazette) 2008 June 28. (Daniel, Pittsburgh Post Gazette, Sooner edition, Lexis Nexis)
Later this year, a plant in China will begin churning out liquid fuel made from coal, a technology that -- if all breaks right for the coal industry -- is headed to American shores. From the

                                                                  coal-to-liquids is a popular topic,
Pittsburgh Coal Conference, which begins today at the Omni William Penn Hotel, Downtown, to Capitol Hill,

spurred by rising gasoline prices and this country's ever-present need to wean itself from oil
imports. Coal-to-liquid proponents insist that the technology would strengthen national
security and be a cheaper alternative than current petroleum. Estimates vary widely, but Richard Bajura,
director of the National Research Center for Coal and Energy at West Virginia University, said liquid coal
could be produced for $60 to $70 a barrel. Last week, oil prices approached $140 a barrel. Still, coal-to-liquid plants would cost several billion
dollars to build, and if the whims of OPEC were to drive down oil prices, there would be little market for a more expensive domestic product. That's why the coal industry has taken its case
to Washington.


COAL TO LIQUID PLANTS WOULD PRODUCE ENERGY AS WELL AS FUEL
Malloy (staff writer for Pittsburgh Post Gazette) 2008 June 28. (Daniel, Pittsburgh Post Gazette, Sooner edition, Lexis Nexis)
Plants are in development in coal-producing regions around the country, including Gilberton, Schuylkill County,
where Waste Management and Processors Inc. is working on constructing a plant that would

convert waste coal -- too low-grade for use in conventional processes -- into gas, then liquid.
In addition to liquid fuel, the plant would produce electricity. Funding details have not been finalized, but the federal
government was to provide about $100 million in loan guarantees for the $1 billion project. Taxpayers also are financing projects in other ways.


CTL WORKS, AND IS MUCH CHEAPER THAN OIL
State News Service (Washington) June 4, 2008 (State News Service, Lexis Nexis)
Capito announced her legislation last week in Charleston, and spoke of the need for a broad, multi-faceted energy policy that
emphasizes domestic sources of energy. Her bill will mandate the production of 6 billion gallons of coal-derived

fuel annually by the year 2022. "The world-wide demand for energy is enormous," said Capito. "We‘ve got to have true energy independence and we
should be using American sources of energy. Coal is one of our most abundant resources, and any comprehensive energy policy must include coal. "This bill sets a marker for the

           Coal-to-liquids technology is there but we‖ve continued to under-invest. It can
production of liquid coal.

be clean and it can - and should - be part of our overall energy strategy. Now it' time for Congress to actually
get serious about enacting one." Modeled after ethanol targets enacted in recent years, Capito' bill would mandate the production of a steadily increasing volume of coal-to-liquid fuel

                                    Coal-to-liquid technology is widely utilized for transportation
culminating in a mandated 6 billion gallons per year by 2022.

fuel in South Africa, while China, India, Australia and the Philippines have also invested heavily in coal-derived fuel. At a
cost of approximately $35 to $45 per barrel, coal can be converted to clean, zero-sulfur,
synthetic oil and oil products. "With the price of oil upwards of $130 per barrel, coal-to-liquids is economically viable
and stands to be a key job-creator for coal-producing states throughout the United States," said
Capito.




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                                        CTL Better Than Diesel
COAL TO LIQUID IS CLEANER THAN CONVENTIONAL DIESAL PRODUCTION
Malloy (staff writer for Pittsburgh Post Gazette) 2008 June 28. (Daniel, Pittsburgh Post Gazette, Sooner edition, Lexis Nexis)
Coal-to-liquid does have some greenhouse advantages in that the diesel fuel it produces
emits less sulfur than conventional diesel. Also, a study at a proposed plant in Wellsville, Ohio, along the Ohio River, an hour northwest of
Pittsburgh, showed promising advances in emissions reduction. When a 70 percent to 30 percent coal-biomass blend is fed in to

produce fuel, the plant releases 46 percent less carbon dioxide than conventional diesel
production.




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                              CTL Spills Over to Civilian Aircraft
THE PENTAGON IS SHARING THE R AND D OF CTL’S WITH CIVILIAN AIRLINES
 DREAZEN ( Staff writer for the Wall Street Journal) May 21, 2008 (Yochi J, The Wall Street Journal, lexis Nexis
http://www.lexisnexis.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T4019535984&format=GNBFI&sort=BOOLEAN&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T40195359
87&cisb=22_T4019535986&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=304478&docNo=18)

As the Air Force's experimentation increased, so did the involvement of the private sector.
Military and civilian aircraft share many parts and are often built by the same companies. The
military's Boeing C-17 cargo jet, for instance, uses the same Pratt & Whitney engine as a Boeing 757 passenger plane. Pentagon officials are sharing

their research into synthetic fuels with such firms to help civilian companies certify their
equipment on the synthetic-fuel blend.




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                                             Solves Supply Competition
COAL IS AN ANSWER TO CONSTRAINED SUPPLY IN THE STATUS QUO
Peter J. Robertson. May 22, 2008. Vice Chairman of the Chevron Corporation. ―Committee on House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust & Competition Policy Task Force‖

There is no single or short-term solution to satisfy the world's growing appetite for energy or to
prevent the United States from being affected by the global energy dynamic. We are in a
new energy era, one defined by increased demand and constrained supply. We need a
range of realistic solutions, and we need them at scale. We literally need all the energy we
can develop and to use energy more wisely. This includes oil, natural gas, coal and nuclear power. It also includes renewables. And, just as
important, it includes a focus on energy efficiency. The U.S. Energy Information Agency forecasts that over the next 25 years oil, coal
and natural gas will provide roughly the same 86 percent of the world's total energy mix as they do today. The energy industry and other parties are making investments in all these areas,
and it is important that they continue. All are needed to provide important additions to our energy supply portfolio. And all will play an important role in meeting increased energy
demand.




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                               Renewable Alone Fail—CTL is Key
RENEWABLES CAN’T EVEN COME CLOSE TO COVERING SUPPLY GAP—NEED CTL AND CTL-
SUPPORTED METHODS TO SOLVE
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

To establish U.S. energy security and independence by 2030 all feasible supply and demand
options must be aggressively pursued. There is no single answer: • Transportation energy efficiency
improvements are important but, by themselves, can contribute only a small portion of the required solution. • Renewable
biomass fuels are a critical part of the portfolio of required initiatives, but can produce less than one-fourth of the required
liquid fuels. • CTL, oil shale, and EOR will all contribute substantially, and all three
technologies must be aggressively deployed. All of the options presented here are
technologically feasible, rely on domestic U.S. resources, and are capable of attaining the
goals established over the next two decades. The resource assessments, technology
assessments, costs, and forecasts were developed by respected experts in their fields .

ONLY CTL SOLVES FOR HIGH-ENERGY FUELS—OTHER ALTERNATIVES CAN’T POWER AIRCRAFT,
HEAVY EQUIPMENT, AND RAILROAD POWER
JAMES T. BARTIS. May 2007. Testimony presented before the Senate Energy and Natural Resources. ―Policy Issues for Coal-to- Liquid Development‖

As part of RAND‘s examination of coal-to-liquids fuels development, we have reviewed the
technical, economic, and environmental viability and production potential of a range of options for

producing liquid fuels from domestic resources.If we focus on unconventional fuel technologies
that are now ready for large-scale commercial production and that can displace at least a
million barrels per day of imported oil , we find only two candidates: grain-derived ethanol and F-T coal-to- liquids. Moreover, only the F-T
coal-to-liquids candidate produces a fuel that is suitable for use in heavy-duty trucks, railroad
engines, commercial aircraft, or military vehicles and weapon systems. If we expand our time horizon to
consider technologies that might be ready for use in initial commercial plants within the next five years, only one or two new technologies

become available: the in-situ oil shale approaches being pursued by a number of firms and the F-T approaches for
converting biomass or a combination of coal and biomass to liquid fuels. We have also looked carefully at the development prospects for technologies that offer to
produce alcohol fuels from sources other than food crops, so-called cellulosic materials. Our finding is that while this is an important area for research and development, the technology
base is not yet sufficiently developed to support an assessment that alcohol production from cellulosic materials will be competitive with F-T biomass-to-liquid fuels within the next ten
years, if ever.




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                                                                    Plenty of Coal
US HAS A MINIMUM OF 100 YEARS OF COAL ON SUPPLY RIGHT NOW
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

America is endowed with the largest coal reserves in the world, and recoverable reserves
are estimated to be about 270 billion tons. In 2005 the U.S. produced 1.13 billion tons of coal, second only to China. Based on EIA‘s
270 billion ton reserve estimate, America has more than 200 years of coal at the current
production rate. Even if production were to be doubled, the recoverable reserve base
estimated by EIA would last for more than a century. Potential coal reserves are even larger:
The demonstrated reserve base is 495 billion tons, identified resources are 1,730 billion tons,
and total resources are 4 trillion tons, far more than any other country.
MORE REALISTIC ARE THAT THE US HAS APPROX 300-500 YEARS OF COAL FUEL AT HIGH
PRODUCTION
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

                                              the widely referenced EIA reserve estimates
The more detailed report section III.B on ―Coal‖ (below) offers evidence that

understate America‘s true coal potential. Decision makers frequently refer to the EIA 270
billion ton recoverable reserve estimate as being America‘s coal endowment; however, the
EIA total coal resource for the U.S. is nearly 4 trillion tons and the Demonstrated Reserve Base
(DRB) is nearly 500 billion tons. Clearly the U.S. endowment of coal is enormous . There is compelling evidence that
the 500 billion ton DRB better approximates U.S. coal resources that will ultimately be recovered when advancements in technology, coal reserve growth (as poorly explored measures
are added to the DRB), new discoveries, and other dynamics are taken into account.


US HAS 200 YEARS OF COAL SUPPLY BY MOST CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATES
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.
How much U.S. coal is available for recovery in the near, intermediate and longterm is important knowledge for decision makers as they attempt to guide our country toward energy

security and independence.   The United States is endowed with the largest coal reserves in the world, and
recoverable reserves are estimated by EIA to be about 270 billion tons. In 2005 the U.S.
produced 1.13 billion tons of coal , second only to China. Based on the EIA reserve estimate, the U.S. has
more than 200 years of coal at current production rates, and even if production were doubled the
recoverable reserve base would last for more than a century. Here we present an overview of U.S. coal resources and offer
evidence that the EIA reserve estimates present an understated picture of actual U.S. coal potential .

Decision-makers frequently refer to the EIA 270 billion ton recoverable reserve estimate as being the U.S. coal endowment. However, we believe that EIA‘s 500

billion ton Demonstrated Reserve Base (DRB) estimate is a better approximation of U.S. coal
resources that will ultimately be recoverable, considering advancements in technology, coal
reserve growth (as poorly explored measures are added to the DRB), new discoveries, and other dynamics.
CONSENSUS THAT EVEN DRB ESTIMATES ARE UNDERSTATED
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

Sixteen of the 19 responding states indicated that the EIA DRB was understated, representing
84 percent of the returned surveys. One state indicated that the EIA DRB was representative. And two states out of 19 indicated that the EIA estimate
was too high. The right hand column of Table III.B.4 contains the states‘ responses to the questionnaire with respect to whether they felt the DRB or Identified Resources was the best

                 Most states responded that the DRB was the closest figure, but that it
estimate of the state‘s coal resources.

excluded some resources that would be mineable. The label ―> DRB‖ implies that the state would use an estimate somewhat greater
than the DRB, but significantly less than the Keystone value. Appendix B contains a more indepth presentation and analysis of the state survey responses. Appendix C presents the survey
questions and a complete set of state answers to each question.




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                                         AT: SASOL Proves CTL Bad
SASOL AIR POLLUTION ARGUMENTS DON’T LINK—NEW TECHNOLOGY ELIMINATES THREAT
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

Sulfur recovery, which was 70 percent in the 1970‘s, is currently more than 96 percent
efficient using state-of-the-art technology. If a completely new system were to be designed
today, modern permit levels would be achievable.




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                                         AT: CTL Too Dirty to be Legal
A PROGRAM HAS BEEN CREATED TO LOWER CTL GREENHOUSE EMISSIONS
Dayton university (Ascribe newswire) May 23, 2008 (lexis Nexis, http://www.lexisnexis.com/us/lnacademic/returnTo.do?returnToKey=20_T4020628420)
In addition, the program will be designed to investigate ways to create jet fuel with a carbon

footprint well below that produced by current petroleum fuel refineries. "Adding even low levels
of biomass greatly reduces the environmental impact of the overall process," Ballal said. "We've already
demonstrated that jet fuels produced from synthesis gas burn cleanly and have greatly
reduced soot emissions compared with fuels produced from petroleum." In a longer-term goal,
researchers hope to minimize the number of additives needed to meet the required performance
                                                                                             other
specifications for jet fuel. Current jet fuel can include up to six additives for anti-icing and
functions, Ballal said. "But the need for these additives creates a major logistics headache on the
battlefield as well as for commercial operators that travel to remote locations . In addition,
they must be procured from highly specialized vendors, which makes them expensive. We
hope to construct fuel that will require fewer additives and still perform well, especially in extreme hot and cold
temperatures." Because the composition of coal varies depending on where in the country it is mined, the fuels
research facility will be equipped to produce fuel from various types of coal. The gasifier itself will be designed
for optimal performance using Ohio coal, which has relatively high levels of sulfur. The Public Utilities Commission
of Ohio, which has been instrumental in securing funding for the program, has also been working to engage
Ohio's coal producers in the project, Ballal said. The new award, effective May 15, extends a $31.5 million, five-
year cooperative agreement issued in 2003 for improving fuels and combustion technologies for advanced
aircraft and aerospace systems - the largest contract awarded to the Research Institute in its 51-year history -
and serves in part as seed funding for the gasifier. Additional funding for the gasifier will be pursued
later this year from the Air Force, the state of Ohio and other sources.

THE AIRFORCE MAY USE CTL AS LONG AS IT MEETS GREENHOUSE STANDARDS OF
CONVENTIONAL PETROLEUM
Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007(congressional bill), enacted Dec. 19, 2007 (bill H.R. 6,
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/billtext.xpd?bill=h110-6)

No Federal agency shall enter into a contract for procurement of an alternative or synthetic
fuel, including a fuel produced from nonconventional petroleum sources, for any mobility-
related use, other than for research or testing, unless the contract specifies that the lifecycle greenhouse gas
emissions associated with the production and combustion of the fuel supplied under the
contract must, on an ongoing basis, be less than or equal to such emissions from the
equivalent conventional fuel produced from conventional petroleum sources.




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                                              Incentives Are Key to CTL
CTL SOLVES EMISSIONS AND OIL DEPENDENCE BUT REQUIRES FEDERAL INCENTIVES
JAMES T. BARTIS. May 2007. Testimony presented before the Senate Energy and Natural Resources. ―Policy Issues for Coal-to- Liquid Development‖
Today, I will discuss the key problems and policy issues associated with developing a domestic
coal-to-liquids industry and the approaches Congress can take to address these issues. My key

conclusions are as follows.First, successfully developing a coal-to-liquids industry in the United
States would bring significant economic and national security benefits by reducing wealth
transfers to oil-exporting nations. Second, the production of petroleum substitutes from coal
may cause a significant increase in carbon dioxide emissions; however, technical approaches exist that could lower carbon dioxide

emissions to levels well below those associated with producing and using conventional
petroleum. Third, without federal assistance, private-sector investment in coal-to- liquids
production plants is unlikely to occur, because of uncertainties about the future of world oil prices, the costs and performance of initial commercial
plants, and the viability of carbon management options. Finally, a federal program directed at reducing these uncertainties and obtaining early, but limited, commercial experience
appears to offer the greatest strategic benefits, given both economic and national security benefits and the uncertainties associated with economic viability and environmental
performance, most notably the control of greenhouse gas emissions.




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                            Technology Transferable to Civilians
CTL CAN BE USED FOR EVERY MILITARY AND CIVILIAN APPLICATON
JAMES T. BARTIS. May 2007. Testimony presented before the Senate Energy and Natural Resources. ―Policy Issues for Coal-to- Liquid Development‖


RAND  research shows that the benefits of developing a CTL industry in the United States do not
accrue to any specific types of fuel users, but rather to all fuel users, including military and
civil aviation. This is because the main benefit of producing any unconventional fuel is that it
reduces demand for conventional petroleum and thereby reduces world oil prices. Coal-
derived liquids have certain performance properties that allow them to command a
premium price in certain markets. In particular, because CTL fuels are nearly free of sulfur and have a very
high cetane number, CTL fuels will command a premium when used as automotive and truck fuels . But these
two characteristics offer less value when considering aircraft applications. As such, we believe that commercial aircraft are not a likely market for CTL fuels produced in the United States
over the foreseeable future.




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                                       CTL Requires No Retrofitting
COAL-DERIVED FUELS REQUIRE NO CHANGES TO EXISTING ENGINES
JAMES T. BARTIS. May 2007. Testimony presented before the Senate Energy and Natural Resources. ―Policy Issues for Coal-to- Liquid Development‖


We are told that Fischer-Tropsch fuels require no modifications to existing diesel or jet engines, or
delivery infrastructure including pipelines and fuel station pumps. Is that true? This is true, so long as
additives are allowed. In general, the additive package would be similar to that associated with conventional fuels intended for use in diesel or jet engines. For
unblended (i.e., 100 percent Fischer-Tropsch liquids) coal-derived fuels, additional additives may be required to assure

adequate lubricity and to protect seals.




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                     Even Partial Enactment Solves Shocks
PLAN INSULATES US AGAINST OIL SHOCKS—DON’T NEED TOTAL REPLACEMENT TO PREVENT
WORST IMPACTS
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

Another important point is that the effects of future energy disruptions and constraints will not
be uniform: Nations that have developed viable substitute fuel technologies and energy
efficiency initiatives will be less affected than those which have not. In a comprehensive
analysis of the vulnerability of the U.S. economy to oil shortages and price shocks, the
Congressional Research Service concluded that if alternative non-petroleum energy sources
could be developed on a large scale so they supply a large portion of U.S. energy needs,
then the economy would be less sensitive to such perturbations.2




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                                           AT: Shocks Coming Too Soon
EVEN IN WORST CASE SCENARIO OF PEAK OIL IN 2010, PLAN NOW PREVENTS THE WORST
ECONOMIC AND SUPPLY AND IMPACTS AND DRAMATICALLY REDUCES RECOVERY TIME
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

This scenario assumed that, even though world oil peaking occurs within four    years, the AES program is not initiated. Scenario 2 considered the case where the worldwide demand
for oil begins to exceed the supply of conventional, relatively cheap oil (the peaking of conventional oil) in 2010 and that no U.S. substitute fuels

initiatives have been undertaken. This is essentially a static policy scenario where U.S. energy policy continues to drift for the remainder of the decade.
Consideration of this scenario is necessary for several reasons: • First, as noted, this is current U.S. policy and may continue for the foreseeable future until a major liquid fuels crisis occurs. •
Second, it represents a ―worst case‖ scenario and demonstrates the potential dangers of not implementing the AES initiatives. • Third, the implications of this scenario were compared

and contrasted with the benefits of initiating the AES program in 2007. • Fourth, this scenario demonstrates that,     if peaking were to occur as                        early as 2010, then
aggressive mitigation programs have to be initiated immediately. Under this scenario, U.S. GDP in 2010 is about $14,500 (2005$) and oil prices in 2010 are in the range of $65 - $70/bbl.
(2005$). A review of studies conducted over the 164 past two decades indicates that the elasticity of GDP to a sudden doubling of oil prices is between -2 percent to -6.4 percent. We

estimated here that the elasticity is -4 percent. What would likely happen to oil prices if peaking occurs in 2010? At least in the    short run they would at least
double, and may increase even more. In this scenario we assumed that the immediate effect is that oil prices increase by 150 percent: From about
$65 - $70/bbl. to about $165 - $175/bbl. A 150 percent increase in oil prices would decrease 2010 U.S. GDP by about 6 percent -- about $900 billion. This would likely

generate the most severe recession since the Great Depression.1 The severity of this GDP impact will gradually decrease
over time under both Scenario 2 and Scenario 3 (where oil peaking in 2010 is assumed in conjunction with implementation of the AES initiatives in 2007, as discussed below) as supply and

                                                                          this would be
demand adjustments are made. In the short run, almost all of the adjustment would be ―demand destruction‖ in both scenarios. In the longer run,

mitigated considerably in Scenario 3 because the AES initiatives are already in place and
would be producing and saving more and more liquid fuel each year. Adjustment would be longer and more
painful under Scenario 2 because it assumes that no AES initiative would be implemented. Further, under this scenario, by definition, more of the adjustment would have to be through

                                                 the $900 billion 2010 reduction in GDP would gradually decline over the decade until by
demand destruction. We estimated that under scenario 2,

2020 it is $450 billion below what it would have been otherwise. By 2020, even in this case, in addition to demand destruction some additional alternative liquid
fuel supplies are being produced driven by market conditions. Scenario 3: The AES Initiatives With Oil Peaking in 2010 Scenario 3 assumes that oil peaking and supply shortfalls occur in
2010 and that, beginning in 2007, the AES initiates are implemented. Thus, Scenario 3 also considers the case where the worldwide demand for oil begins to exceed the supply of
conventional, relatively cheap oil in about 2010. However, this scenario assumes that the AES initiatives are implemented beginning in 2007. The precise parameters, technical
specifications, and magnitude of the AES program are similar to those specified in Scenario 1, and result in a rapid build-up of plants producing significant amounts of substitute liquid
fuels within a decade. This scenario also includes the effects of the generic transportation fuel efficiency initiatives. Under scenario 3, the initial reduction in GDP in 2010 would be almost

                                                                                                    two factors will decrease the initial GDP
as large as in scenario 2, since relatively little alternate liquid fuels will be produced in 2010. However,

losses under Scenario 3: • First, since the AES initiatives began in 2007, by 2010 a small amount of liquid fuels will be produced and saved – about 1.1 MM bpd. This will
help to lessen the initial decrease in GDP resulting from oil peaking in that year . • Second , the investments in the AES initiatives in 2010

will be ramping up and will tend to slightly increase GDP above what it would have been in the absence of these initiatives.
Both factors will tend to mitigate the negative impacts on GDP in 2010 under Scenario 3. While in 2010
these positive impacts on GDP and employment will be relatively small compared to the negative impacts caused by oil peaking,
they will be substantial and beneficial. We estimate that the initial GDP reduction in 2010 under Scenario 3 is about $720 billion. Most important, the

beneficial impacts under Scenario 3 will increase every year after 2010 as the AES initiatives ramp up. The results of this
scenario can be contrasted with those of Scenario 2 to demonstrate the energy and economic implications of not implementing the AES initiatives if oil peaks as early as 2010. If fact,

                                                 if oil is likely to peak in 2010, it is absolutely
since all of the mitigation programs involve several years start-up time, this scenario shows that,

necessary to initiate crash mitigation programs immediately. Even then, the situation over the next decade is likely to be
troublesome.




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EVEN IN NEAR-TERM PEAK OIL SCENARIO PLAN RESULTS IN NET MEDIUM TERM BOOST IN GDP
OVER STATUS QUO PROJECTION
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

Under Scenario 3, by 2020 GDP is 3.3 percent higher than under Scenario 2 and almost one
percent higher than it would have been if oil had not peaked in 2010. The reason is that
because by 2010 the AES initiatives are producing/saving about 43 percent of U.S. oil imports
and the AES investments themselves are increasing industry sales by nearly $200 billion.
Therefore, we estimate that this oil import replacement and investment, along with other market-
driven adjustments, will result in a GDP in 2020 nearly one percent higher than it would have
been otherwise.

EVEN IN SHORT-TERM PEAK SCENARIO PLAN PREVENTS WORST IMPACTS FOR BECOMING LONG
TERM AND LEADING TO FAST RECOVERY
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

    while the AES initiatives will not be able to prevent most of the economic damage
Second,

occurring in 2010 from oil peaking, they will substantially lessen the subsequent adverse
impacts over the decade, and will reverse them by 2017. By the end of the decade they will
have more than alleviated the adverse impacts on GDP and employment, as well as making
the U.S. substantially more energy secure.

PLAN PREVENTS ALMOST ALL IMPACTS OF MEDIUM TERM PEAK OIL
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

                         if oil peaking is delayed until 2020 and if aggressive mitigation programs are
This scenario demonstrates that,

initiated in 2007, the economic and national security problems resulting from oil peaking can be
minimized. The results from this scenario can be compared with those of the baseline case and the other scenarios.




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                      Plan Means Fast Recovery from Shock
PLAN LEADS TO LESS THAN ONE YEAR RECOVERY FROM PEAK OIL—PREVENTS ALL MAJOR
IMPACTS
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

The initial impact on GDP in 2020 under Scenario 4 will still be negative because, even with the AES
initiatives, the U.S. is still importing more than half of its oil. The greatly increased oil prices under oil peaking will thus still negatively
affect the U.S. economy. However, in this case much of the increased revenues from higher oil
prices is being received by domestic producers. Every year after 2020, U.S. substitute liquid
fuels production increases rapidly, and this – in conjunction with the stimulative effects of the
AES investments – will reduce the negative impacts on U.S. GDP. Table VI-20 summarizes the economic impacts under
Scenario 4 compared to the base case. These are discussed below.




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                                                       Plan Solves Peak
PLAN ONLY WAY TO SOLVE PEAK OIL CRASH
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

                          immediate implementation of ―crash‖ programs to ramp up
The American Energy Security Study shows that

production of domestic alternative liquid transportation fuels is the only way to insure against
peak oil. The potential economic costs and consequences of doing nothing in preparation
far exceed the costs of implementing crash programs. Our economic analysis demonstrates
that even if world oil production does not peak between now and 2030, implementing crash
programs will have a very positive impact on the economy by increasing economic activity,
reducing the trade deficit, and lowering prices for transportation fuels.




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                                       Plan  Energy Independence
PLAN SOLVES ALMOST ALL OIL IMPORT BY 2030
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

The American Energy Security (AES) Study shows that the United States can eliminate dependence on oil
imports entirely by 2030. It establishes a bold plan to replace approximately five percent of
imported oil each year for 20 years, beginning in 2010 (see Figure EX-1 below). Assuming aggressive
implementation beginning in 2007, under the SSEB American Energy Security initiatives domestic liquid fuels production
and transportation efficiency savings begin gradually after 2010 and ramp up to produce most of the nation‘s

liquid fuels requirements by 2030.(see Figure EX-2).

US ALTERNATIVE FUELS SOURCES CAN COMBINE TOGETHER TO SOLVE OIL DEPENDENCE
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

                       America‘s most abundant liquids fuels resources can be responsibly
Figure EX-2 presents a visual portrayal of how

harvested to supplement U.S. conventional oil output, reducing and ultimately eliminating
the projected oil import gap. Utilizing clean production technologies, aggressive
development programs in coal-to-liquids (CTL), various biomassto- liquid fuels processes, oil
shale extraction, and CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR), will all play a critical role. Voluntary transportation efficiency and conservation
(TE&C) programs that reduce consumption also will be necessary.


DOMESTIC SOURCES CAN SOLVE FOREIGN OIL DEPENDENCE
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

                          by 2030 U.S. domestic resources will be providing nearly 60 percent of
With the American Energy Security initiatives,

total U.S. liquid fuels requirements, Coal-toliquids will be providing about one-fifth of U.S.
liquid fuels requirements, and biomass more than one-sixth. In essence, the structure of U.S. liquid
fuels supply will be radically changed, with substitute fuels production from domestic sources
replacing oil imports.

US HAS ENOUGH DOMESTIC ALTERNATIVE LIQUID FUEL RESOURCES TO REPLACE MIDDLE EAST
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

The U.S. is the Middle East of non-conventional liquid fuels resources, with oil equivalent
reserves rivaling those of world conventional oil resources. Trillions of tons of U.S. oil shale,
coal, and renewable biomass are available to be profitably converted to premium quality
liquid fuels using existing commercial and near-commercial technologies, and record fuel
prices clearly reflect the need for alternative domestic liquid fuels production. This study estimates the
substantial economic and national security benefits that can be created by implementing government policies that encourage the rapid development of unconventional domestic fuels
production and move the U.S. toward energy security and independence (ESI).




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ONLY CTL PROVIDES GUARANTEED ENERGY SECURITY
Federal News Service. February 28, 2008 Thursday. HEARING OF THE READINESS SUBCOMMITTEE OF THE HOUSE ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEE.
http://www.lexis.com/research/retrieve?_m=f2a1d389620843dc0ab8439ece5743c3&searchType=&docnum=3&_fmtstr=FULL&_startdoc=1&wchp=dGLbVtz-
zSkAB&_md5=2cc6c8abe98c0b76a7f6b58856bdc8f6&focBudTerms=%22coal%20to%20liquid%22%20and%20%22military%20readiness%22%0D%0A&focBudSel=all

                                                                                                                               the
Let's go to coal-to-gas, if you could. Okay. From my opinion, my position -- Yes. -- not being an energy policy person, but a businessman, based on current technologies,

world can't survive without using coal , and we've got to figure out how to use it in an environmentally-friendly way. The United
States is the number one depository of coal in the world, and if we don't use it as part of our energy independent strategy, we're
never going to get there. That -- but that's Bill Anderson talking. Well, I'm seeing that -- I'm sorry. I'll just summarize this and I'm done. Please do, because we've got other members that -- I -

- yeah, I just saw the red light and I'll apologize. That becomes essential.   Without that we're not going to be independent for
military needs.




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                                                    Plan Solves Shocks
PLAN BOOSTS ECONOMY BUT STATUS QUO DOOMS US TO PRICE AND SECURITY SHOCKS
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

The technologies and resources necessary to transform the U.S. energy future are well within
reach. However, the potential for the United States to pursue a course of innovation and
investment that will stimulate new industry and create good, high-wage jobs is not being
realized, leaving the economy dangerously vulnerable to energy contingencies and price
shocks that reduce economic growth and confront consumers with high and unpredictable
fuel and utility bills. U.S. oil import dependence imposes an economic and security penalty of
enormous proportions.




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                              Must Act Now to Prevent Shocks
ANY DELAY LEADS TO MASSIVE RISK OF CRUSHING SUPPLY SHORTAGES
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

It is important to note that time is of the essence. Implementation of the American Energy Security initiatives must begin no later than 2007,
and delay is not an option. This study finds that, even with aggressive implementation of all
of the initiatives starting next year, it will take at least a decade to begin significantly
reducing U.S. oil imports, and well over two decades to achieve national energy security
and independence. Any delay will leave the U.S. highly vulnerable to shortages, supply
disruptions, high and volatile prices, and the catastrophic possiblity that world oil production
may soon peak.

MUST ACT SOON—MUST PREVENT SHOCKS
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

The program proposed in the present study is ambitious , and it may be argued that despite the unease surrounding oil prices in
excess of $70 a barrel, there is no ―emergency‖ yet. The point, however, is to prevent the situation from

ever becoming a dire emergency.

MUST ACT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE—WAITING SEVERELY INCREASES RISK OF IMPACTS
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

  the danger to waiting or delaying the implementation of the initiatives is serious and delay
Third,

must be avoided. For example, if the ―problem‖ is not recognized until oil peaking occurred in 2010,
and legislation is not enacted until 2011, the incremental cumulative economic damage
over the coming decade would be severe.

FAILURE TO ADDRESS PEAK WILL RESULT IN CRUSHING ECONOMIC IMPACTS
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

   the danger to waiting or delaying the implementation of the initiatives is serious and
Third,

delay must be avoided. For example, if the ―problem‖ is not recognized until oil peaking occurred in
2020, and legislation is not enacted until 2021, the incremental cumulative economic damage over the coming
decade would be extremely severe and have dire economic consequences.
MUST ACT NOW TO SOLVE PEAK OIL
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

           if the AES initiatives are implemented on a crash basis beginning in 2007, they can produce
It is thus clear that,

and save more than sufficient amounts of liquid fuels to replace the U.S. shortfalls likely to
result from oil peaking in 2020. However, this is only true if the initiatives are begun next year. Once again, it is imperative that any
delays in implementation be avoided.




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EVERY DELAY INCREASES RISK OF IMPACTS—ACTING NOW SOLVES RISKS OF NEAR TERM PEAK
OIL
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

            if the AES initiatives are implemented on a crash basis beginning in 2007, they can produce
It is thus clear that,

and save more than sufficient amounts of liquid fuels to replace the U.S. shortfalls likely to
result from oil peaking in 2010. However, this is only true if the initiatives are begun next year. Once
again, it is imperative that any delays in implementation be avoided .




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                                             High Risk of Pipeline Attack
OIL PIPELINE ATTACKS CRUSH THE US ECONOMY
Cory. [President of Mammoth Resource Partners, holds a doctorate of jurisprudence and bachelor of Arts-Journalism]. 2004. [Roger L. ―Oil Terrorism: The Living Nightmare No
One Wants to Contemplate‖. http://www.mammothresource.com/article_files/oil_terrorism.pdf]

Energy gives the West the ability to do things. To make things. To move things . To heat and cool buildings. To
communicate over long distances. To power machines and computers. Energy is the one common critical factor in every

modern economy. "By hitting oil targets overseas, terrorists can hit us here at home,
achieving the same destabilizing effect as an attack on American soil," says Gail Luft, executive director of the
Institute for the Analysis of Global Security in Washington. "Dependence on foreign oil is America‘s Achilles heel ."



OIL PIPELINES ARE AT GREAT RISK OF BEING TARGETS OF TERROR ATTACKS.
Cory. [President of Mammoth Resource Partners, holds a doctorate of jurisprudence and bachelor of Arts-Journalism]. 2004. [Roger L. ―Oil Terrorism: The Living Nightmare No
One Wants to Contemplate‖. http://www.mammothresource.com/article_files/oil_terrorism.pdf]

One of the critical issues we face with oil security is the transportation of it. As we mentioned
before, the vast majority of the world‘s oil is produced thousands of miles from where it is
consumed, so it needs to be transported to refineries closer to its final destination. This transportation system, in normal times, is a marvel of
efficiency and safety, given the amounts of oil being moved every day. But these are not normal times. While efforts are being made to better secure the oil transport system worldwide,

the problem is precisely that—our oil transport system is a worldwide system! It‘s practically impossible to secure it all, and
one soft target for terrorists can create significant disruptions. We cannot, of course, sketch out all the potential areas of
attack to our oil transportation system. There are thousands of miles of pipeline, tens of thousands of miles of

shipping lanes, and many hundreds of oil terminals worldwide, all of which possess their own security profiles. But we should make ourselves
aware of the major oil transport choke points, because these are undoubtedly where Islamic
terrorists would dearly love to hit our system

OIL PIPLINES IN THE BOSPORUS STRAITS ARE VULNERABLE AND AN ATTACK WOULD BE
DEVASTATING.
Cory. [President of Mammoth Resource Partners, holds a doctorate of jurisprudence and bachelor of Arts-Journalism]. 2004. [Roger L. ―Oil Terrorism: The Living Nightmare No One
Wants to Contemplate‖. http://www.mammothresource.com/article_files/oil_terrorism.pdf]

The Bosporus Straits in Turkey is a key world oil choke point that has a long history in world
affairs as a strategic location. At its narrowest point, the Straits are only 700 yards wide! Yet 50,000 ships per year pass
through this channel between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean—one every ten minutes. This makes the Straits the busiest
waterway in the world. Of those 50,000 ships, nearly 6,000 of them are massive oil tankers, some longer than the width of the Straits at its narrowest point. To make
matters more difficult, the Bosporus Straits are notoriously tricky to navigate, requiring 12 course changes, several of which are 45 degrees or more. Oil tanker traffic is

only expected to increase, as Caspian Sea development continues (that oil is pipelined to the shores of the Black
Sea, then loaded onto tankers). A troubling development in the Bosporus is the dramatic increase of nuclear materials shipments, a result of Russia‘s recent agreement with several
nations to reprocess and dispose of nuclear material in its southern region near the Black Sea. Not surprising given its difficult navigation and high traffic, the accident rate in the Bosporus

                                                                                                The
is startling; over 350 dangerous incidents have been recorded in the last ten years. Even more alarming is the fact that the Straits pass right through the Turk metropolis of Istanbul.

potential for terrorist mayhem in the Bosporus is nearly limitless. Possibilities include the
explosion of a nuclear-loaded vessel near Istanbul; the sinking of a major vessel in the Strait‘s
narrowest point, halting traffic indefinitely; vessels set adrift, causing blockage and collisions;
on-board fires and sea-borne fires of petroleum cargo, and many more. An extended
closure of the Bosporus could lead to the effective loss of some 70 million tons of oil per year
to the world market from the Caspian Sea region.




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OIL PIPELINES IN THE PERSIAN GULF ARE VULNERABLE AND A TERROR ATTACK WOULD CUT 40%
OF THE WORLD OIL
Cory. [President of Mammoth Resource Partners, holds a doctorate of jurisprudence and bachelor of Arts-Journalism]. 04. [Roger L. ―Oil Terrorism: The Living Nightmare No One
Wants to Contemplate‖. http://www.mammothresource.com/article_files/oil_terrorism.pdf]

The Strait of Hormuz is the heavyweight champion of oil transport. Eighty percent of all
Persian Gulf oil—40% of all world oil production—passes through this 34-mile-wide channel. It is the
only sea-going exit from the Persian Gulf. The Strait lies at the southern end of the Persian Gulf, and separates Iran from the Arabian Peninsula.
Needless to say, a major incident in the Strait of Hormuz would prove disastrous to the world oil

production system. When 40% of the world‘s oil supply is effected, the result would range
anywhere from a crisis to a catastrophe, depending upon how long the delays remained in place. The Strait‘s proximity to
terror capitals makes it all the more inviting and accessible a target. A major disruption of oil
shipping in the Strait of Hormuz would inflict unprecedented economic pain throughout the
developed world, perhaps doubling or even tripling the world price of oil virtually overnight

US MILITARY LEADERSHIP ENSURSE SECURITY IN THE PERSIAN GULF
Kraig. [Program Officer in Policy Analysis and Dialogue at the Stanley Foundation, Ph.D. in political science]. June 29, 2004. [Michael. ―Gulf Security in a Globalizing World‖.
YaleGlobal. http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=4154]

                                   , the Persian Gulf continues to be the home of the most easily
MUSCATINE, IOWA: Despite its political instabilities

exploited and cost-effective petroleum reserves in the world – natural resources that are
undergirding the phenomenal economic rise of India and China and the world‘s continuous
prosperity. Not surprisingly, analysts the world over view the Gulf as the most strategically important
region for the indefinite future. As the US hands over sovereignty to Iraq in the middle of violence and insecurity, it must make a key strategic choice for
securing peace in the Middle East. The US can either attempt again to impose an American hegemony through bilateral arrangements with its 'friends', or it can push forward with a
multilateral approach that would include all governments in the region. The US invasion and occupation of Iraq has cemented a strategic reality that has been evolving for three
decades: the rise of the United States as an external guarantor of Gulf security. US military bases, ports of call, troop deployments, and extensive sharing of high-tech weapons
technology now define the Gulf environment. By design or by accident, so-called ―rogue states‖ (Syria and Iran) are completely surrounded by US deployments in and around the region.




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                                                              Oil Shale Works
OIL SHALE PROVES THAT ALTERNATIVE LIQUID FUELS CAN SUCCEED
Southern States Energy Board in 6
The American Energy Security Study, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/leg_brief.html.

Another model of success, Alberta, Canada, is now second only to Saudi Arabia in proven oil
reserves and ninth in the world in annual oil production. This is the result of successful
development of Canadian oil sands. Alberta is a tremendous alternative liquid fuels success
story. It began with Alberta‘s government deciding to promote the development of this
resource, and not giving up.




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                                         Leads Fuel Farms: Solve Env.
ALTERNATIVE LIQUID FUEL PRODUCTION WILL RESULT IN ALTERNATIVE ENERGY FARMS THAT
SOLVE ENERGY ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
Southern States Energy Board in 6
The American Energy Security Study, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/leg_brief.html.

America has tremendous opportunities to develop multi-source energy complexes that co-
produce liquid fuels, natural gas substitutes, hydrogen, electric power, process heat, energy
crops and petrochemicals. Some are calling these facilities of the future ―Alternative Energy
Farms‖ or ―AEFs.‖ They will include various integrated combinations of alternative energy production units, including: coal-to-liquids/gas/electric/chemicals/steam, ethanol,
biomass-to-/gas/electric/chemicals/steam, biodiesel, hydrogen, and oil shale-to-liquids/gas/electric/chemicals/steam. Wind, solar, fuel cell, and hydro modules are also possible.

Alternative Energy Farms will more fully and efficiently utilize local natural and waste
resources, process heat, infrastructure, product blends, manpower, technology, land, and
capital. Resulting synergies can significantly improve resource utilization and efficiencies,
thereby lowering production costs. Environmental benefits will abound.




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                                                     Plenty of Oil Shale
US HAS ENOUGH OIL SHALE TO REPLACE ALL SAUDI ARABIAN OIL RESERVES
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

The U.S. has very large resources of oil shale, amounting to 2.1 trillion barrels of in-place oil
equivalent in the western and eastern parts of the country. By contrast, Saudi Arabian oil reserves are estimated to total

about 262 billion barrels, representing about one-fourth of total world conventional oil
reserves of about 1.1 trillion barrels. Thus, U.S. oil shale reserves are twice as large as known
world oil resources.
US CONTROL ALMOST 80% OF OIL SHALE RESOURCES
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

Worldwide,the oil shale resource base is believed to contain about 2.6 trillion barrels, of which the
vast majority, over two trillion barrels, (including eastern and western shales), is located within the United States.3
The most economically attractive deposits, containing an estimated 1.5 trillion barrels (richness of >10
gal/ton) are found in the Green River Formation of Colorado (Piceance Creek Basin), Utah (Uinta Basin) and

Wyoming (Green River and Washakie Basins).




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                                                     Biomass Tech is Ready
NEW BIOMASS DEVELOPMENT STATUS QUO PROBLEMS AND WILL CONSTITUTE 1/3 OF US
TRANSPORTATION FUELS
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

                                                           New biomass-to-liquid fuels process are being
Commercial ethanol and biodiesel liquid fuels production is well established in the U.S.

developed that offer even greater potential than current ethanol and biodiesil technologies.
Cellosic ethanol, pyrolysis and gasification techniques are emerging to cost-effectively
produce hydrocarbon fuels from cellulosic biomass resources. The U.S. could sustainably
produce over 1.3 billion tons of biomass per year by 2030, according to a recent study by the Oak Ridge National Labs (ORNL).
ORNL findings indicate that this resource would be sufficient feedstock to produce about 1/3 of U.S

transportation fuels – about five million bpd.




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                                                                  AT: Biomass Bad
YOUR STARCH-BIOMASS ARGUMENT DON’T APPLY—FUTURE BIOMASS WIL BE LIGNOCELLULOSIC
AND SUSTAINABLE
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

Biomass comprises the largest single source of renewable carbon on the planet, and starch from corn and
other grains is one type of biomass that currently forms the basis for a large and growing renewable fuel industry. The corn to ethanol industry produced more than four billion gallons of

alcohol fuel in 2005 and is on track to significantly increase that in 2006. However, use of   starch based biomass fuels has an upper limit
because of the use of food crops as the starting substrate and the inherent competition with the food markets. The agricultural sector estimated that it can produce
between 15 and 17 billion gallons of ethanol from crop-based starches before significant impacts to the food market occur, and to meet the growing

demand for liquid fuels it is apparent that lignocellulosic forms of biomass will need to
supplant the current starch substrates used for fuel production. Lignocellulosics are what
comprise woody types of biomass and include the stalks and leafy material of agricultural
biomass, and converting these materials is where the real challenge of biomass to liquid fuel
production remains. A recent national study showed that over 95 percent of the biomass resources available on
a sustained basis in 2030 would be cellulosic resources.




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                                                         Peak Coming Now
PEAK OIL MEANS TOTAL GLOBAL ECONOMIC CATASTROPHE COMING AS TWO YEARS—ONLY
CRASH PROGRAM BUILT CAN SOLVE
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

A growing number of oil industry experts predict that world crude oil production will ―peak‖
by 2020, or sooner. As the ―peak‖ approaches, world supplies will begin failing to meet world
demand, and the shortfall will grow with time. This study forecasts that at oil peaking, oil prices would
immediately increase by about 150 percent, and continue to rise as the gap between
supply and demand widens. Many oil market specialists contend that if a peak occurs, oil prices could increase much more than 150 percent. Clearly, if
oil peaks and the U.S. is unprepared, the economic impact will be catastrophic . Even without peaking,
continuing tight markets represent risk. The American Energy Security Study estimates that if oil peaks in 2010, and aggressive domestic

alternative fuels production programs are not implemented, over the period 2010-2020 the
U.S. economy will lose about: • $4.6 trillion in GDP • 40 million job years of employment • $1.3 billion in federal,
state, and local government tax revenues We estimate that if oil peaks in 2020 and no crash programs are implemented, over the period 2020-2030 the U.S. economy will lose about:


GLOBAL SUPPLY CAN’T KEEP WITH DEMAND. WE MUST CHANGE TO DOMESTIC ALTERNATIVE TO
PREVENT CRIPPLING SHORTAGES
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

New oil discoveries are not keeping up with historic world increases in oil consumption, driven
by the U.S., China and India. The U.S. faces a serious liquid transportation fuels crisis. To
mitigate the unprecedented risks and to provide for future economic prosperity and national
security, the U.S. must reduce its growing dependence on foreign oil suppliers by producing
its own liquid fuels from domestic sources. While some refer to the oil risks and challenges the nation faces as an ―energy crisis,‖ this is misleading.
What we face is the ominous prospect of crippling oil and liquid fuel shortages and soaring,
volatile prices.

OIL WILL PEAK IN LESS THAN 20 YEARS
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

Extensive exploration has occurred worldwide for the last 30 years, but results have been disappointing. If recent
trends hold, there is little reason to expect that exploration success will dramatically improve in the

future. This situation is evident in Figure I-2, which shows the difference between annual world oil reserves additions minus annual consumption.3 The image is one
of a world moving from a long period in which reserve additions were much greater than
consumption, to an era in which annual additions are falling increasingly short of annual
consumption. Recently, many credible analysts have become much more pessimistic about the
possibility of finding the huge new reserves needed to meet growing world demand. Even
many of the optimistic forecasts suggest that world oil peaking will occur in less than 20 years .
Various individuals and groups have used available information and geological estimates to develop projections for when world oil production might peak, and a sampling of recent
projections is shown in Table I-3.




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                                                                     Shock Now
US OIL SUPPLY LOSS COMING NOW—MULTIPLE THREATS
Southern States Energy Board in 6
The American Energy Security Study, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/leg_brief.html.

Tightening oil markets and near record high prices have brought America‘s oil vulnerability
back into focus. Hurricane Katrina recently demonstrated how quickly oil supply disruptions can impact
the country. More serious supply disruptions will likely occur in the future, caused again by
natural forces like Katrina, or by terrorist acts, or purposeful rationing by the OPEC cartel and
rogue nations such as Iran and Venezuela.
MASSIVE LIQUID FUEL CRISIS COMING N0W—PLAN SOLVES
Southern States Energy Board in 6
The American Energy Security Study, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/leg_brief.html.

America faces a serious liquid transportation fuels crisis. To mitigate these unprecedented risks and to provide for future economic
prosperity and national security, we must reduce our growing dependence on foreign oil suppliers by

producing our own liquid fuels. While some refer to the oil risks and challenges America
faces as an ―energy crisis,‖ this is misleading. We face the ominous prospect of crippling oil
and liquid fuel shortages and soaring prices. One goal of the SSEB study is to show how America can replace
approximately five percent of U.S. imported oil each year for 20 years, beginning no later
than 2010. A key to this plan will entail building multiple alternative liquid fuel plants each
year. This will require an enormous effort and commitments from industry, government, and the
American people. Though a very ambitious goal, it can and must be achieved .


 OIL SHOCKS COMING NOW: HIGH RISK OF TERRORISM, CARTELS, NATURAL DISASTERS, AND
REGIME CHANGE
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

The petroleum infrastructure is highly vulnerable to terrorist attacks and natural disasters.
Terrorist groups are well aware of U.S. dependence on imported oil and will exploit the
vulnerability associated with it. It will be difficult for the U.S. to register progress in the war
against terrorism while America's appetite for Middle Eastern oil grows, and continued
dependency will invite terrorist attacks.3 For example, a successful terrorist attack on the Saudi
Abquaiq facility could take six million bpd off the market for a year or more, escalating
petroleum to well over $100/barrel and severely damaging the U.S. – and the world --
economy. Further, U.S. refineries are concentrated along the hurricane-prone Gulf Coast,
and the Trans-Alaska Pipeline is vulnerable to disruption. The possibility exists, both under
some current regimes and among those that could come to power in the Middle East, of
embargoes or other supply disruptions. Even under the most optimistic assumptions, there is
substantial risk that for some time the region will be characterized by chaotic change and
unpredictable governmental behavior.




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              Oil Shocks Crush Economy/Allied Cohesion
OIL SHOCKS HAVE DEVESTATING EFFECTS ON THE U.S. ECONOMY AND CRUSH ALLIED
COHESION AND REDIRECTS MONEY FROM MAJOR THREATS TO MAINTENANCE OF SUPPLY
Kelley 6
Kelley (member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff under President Ronald Reagan, chairman of the Energy Security Leadership Council ), 2006 August 11, The Washington Post,
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/10/AR2006081001316_pf.html>

Could a mere 4 percent shortfall in daily oil supply propel the price of a barrel to more than $120 in a matter
of days? That's what some oil market experts are saying, and if they're correct, we face the very real possibility of an oil shock wave

that could send our economy reeling. Such a rapid rise in fuel costs would have profound
effects that could severely threaten the foundation of America's economic prosperity The global oil
trends now at work -- rising consumption, reduced spare production capacity and high levels of instability in key oil-producing countries -- all increase the likelihood of a supply shock. But
unfortunately energy debates in this country often suggest a profound misunderstanding of these international economic dynamics. Calls for "energy independence" notwithstanding, oil
is a fungible global commodity, which means that events affecting supply or demand anywhere will affect oil consumers everywhere. A country's exposure to world price shocks is thus a

                                                                   The magnitude of our
function of the amount of oil it consumes and is not significantly affected by the ratio of domestic to imported petroleum.

dependence on oil puts stress on our military, strengthens our strategic adversaries and
undermines our efforts to support democratic allies. Each year the United States expends
enormous military resources protecting the chronically vulnerable oil production and
distribution network while also preparing to guarantee international access to key oil-
producing regions. This allocation of forces and dollars diminishes the military's capability for
dealing with the war on terrorism and other defense priorities .




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                                                        Shocks  Rate Hikes
OIL SHOCKS LEAD TO RATE HIKES, INFLATION—AUSTRALIA PROVES
Middleton 6
Middleton (abc reporter) ―Government admits oil shock is damaging economy.‖ ABC transcripts (Australia), 2006 August 3, NL

It's official -the economy's in the grip of an oil shock and the Treasurer has acknowledged he's trying to contain
the damage. But there was nothing he could do to stop yesterday's rate jump and today,
Westpac has become the first of the major banks to pass on the rise, pushing its standard variable mortgage up to 7.82 percent.
The Prime Minister says he's sorry higher interest rates will hurt homeowners. And Mr Howard has also acknowledged there's no relief in sight for motorists

frustrated at the high price of petrol . JIM MIDDLETON: John Howard came to Queensland's spectacular Glasshouse Mountains to invest them with National Heritage
protection. Protecting homeowners from rising interest rates and motorists from the high price of petrol is altogether more difficult. The Prime Minister acknowledges the cost of fuel could

go even higher.




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                                                    Perception Shock Now
PERCEPTION BASED OIL SHOCK COMING NOW
Story 8
Story (New York Times staff writer) 2008 May 21, New York Times, ―An Oracle of Oil Predicts $200-a-Barrel Crude‖,
<http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/21/business/21oil.html?sq=oil%20shocks%20&st=nyt&scp=5&pagewanted=print>

    Murti remembers the pain of the oil shocks of the 1970s. But he is bracing for something far worse now: He foresees a
Arjun N.

―super spike‖ — a price surge that will soon drive crude oil to $200 a barrel. Mr. Murti, who has a bit of a green
streak, is not bothered much by the prospect of even higher oil prices, figuring it might finally prompt America to become more energy efficient. An analyst at Goldman Sachs, Mr. Murti

                                                 A few years ago, rivals scoffed when he
has become the talk of the oil market by issuing one sensational forecast after another.

predicted oil would breach $100 a barrel. Few are laughing now. Oil shattered yet another
record on Tuesday, touching $129.60 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gas at $4 a
gallon is arriving just in time for those long summer drives.




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                                High Oil Prices Crushing Economy
HIGH OIL PRICES DRAGGING DOWN ECONOMY IN WAYS NOT REFLECTED IN FUEL PRICES
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

America imports about 60% of the oil it consumes. In 2005 U.S. oil imports totaled approximately $250 billion, or $680 million per day. That
figure is fast approaching $1.0 billion per day. The direct and indirect costs to the U.S. economy have been

estimated to total about $300 billion per year. U.S. dependence on crude oil and refined
product imports imposes an enormous economic penalty that is not fully reflected in the
retail price of gasoline, diesel fuel, and jet fuel. It is the penalty of lost jobs, drained investment capital, and
an increased national defense burden. The U.S. cannot pay this $300 billion (and rising) cost forever.
When all of these elements are considered, they raise the "real" price of imported oil to well over $100 per barrel of crude. This translates into a pump price for gasoline of over $5.00 per
gallon, or nearly $100 to fill an average gas tank.


OIL CRUSH THE ECONOMY BY SLOWING GROWTH, RAISING RATES, AND CAUSING INFLATION
Setser 4
Setser (research associate, University College, Oxford) 2006 August, <http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~nroubini/papers/OilShockRoubiniSetser.pdf>

Oil prices shocks have a stagflationary effect on the macroeconomy of an oil importing
country: they slow down the rate of growth (and may even reduce the level of output – i.e. cause a recession)
and they lead to an increase in the price level and potentially an increase in the inflation
rate. An oil price hike acts like a tax on consumption and, for a net oil importer like the United States, the benefits of the tax go to major oil producers rather than the U.S.
government.




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                                               Supply Crunch is Real
CURRENT PRICE SPIKES ARE UNIQUE—NO CAUSE OTHER THAN SUPPLY CRUNCH OR MALICIOUS
MANIPULATION
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

The latest oil price surge is unique. Unlike the high prices that resulted from the 1973 oil
embargo and the Iranian revolution of 1979, there have been no recent major oil supply
disruptions. Either oil producers around the world simply cannot meet rapidly increasing
global demand, or OPEC members (and possibly others) are manipulating oil supplies and prices for
maximum profit (and perhaps to retaliate economically against U.S. policies on terrorism and democracy). In either case,
rapidly rising oil prices have disturbing implications for the U.S. economy and for U.S. energy
security.




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                           Oil Prices Root Causes of Stagflation
HIGH PETROLEUM PRICES AT ROOT OF STAGFLATION
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

        the Federal Reserve Board determined that the increase in energy prices over the
In April 2006,

past three years has significantly reduced the purchasing power of households and
decreased the profits of non-energy firms, thereby restraining both consumer spending and
business investment.5 The Fed estimates that these increases in energy prices have reduced real GDP growth
nearly one percent per year over this period. Further, even as the U.S. economy adjusts to higher energy
prices, the level of productivity is likely to remain lower than it otherwise would have been, as
firms use less energy per worker. The Fed also found that the rise in energy costs has had a
significant impact on overall inflation and has also affected core inflation (which excludes the direct effect of
energy price increases).




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                               Oil Dependence Crushes Economy
OIL DEPENDENCE IS DRAGGING DOWN US ECONOMY AND WILL ONLY INCREASE
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

U.S. dependence on oil imports imposes a huge economic penalty that is not reflected in
the retail price of gasoline. It is a penalty that costs jobs, drains investment capital, and
increases the nation's defense burden, and it is a cost the U.S. cannot pay forever . Numerous analyses of
these hidden costs have been conducted in recent years and the bottom line is that the economic penalty is enormous. There are at

least three major elements that comprise this burden: Military expenditures specifically tied to
defending Persian Gulf oil, the cost of lost employment and investment resulting from the
diversion of financial resources, and the cost of the periodic "oil shocks" the nation has
experienced – and will likely continue to experience. For example, these costs have been estimated to
exceed $300 billion annually, and they are rising: • Expenditures associated with defending the flow of Persian Gulf oil exceed $50 billion
annually.1 • The loss of economic activity resulting from the diversion of financial resources is even larger. Direct economic losses are estimated at nearly $40 billion annually and indirect
losses at $125 billion, for an annual total of more than $160 billion. This loss of economic activity results in a loss of 830,000 jobs in the U.S. and a loss of $15 billion in tax revenues and royalty
payments to the federal, state and local governments.




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                          Short Term Peak Crushes Economy
SHORT-TERM PEAK OIL WOULD SPARK NEW GREAT DEPRESSION
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

What would likely happen to oil prices if peaking occurs in 2010? At least in the short run they
would at least double, and may increase even more. In this scenario we assumed that the
immediate effect is that oil prices increase by 150 percent: From about $65 - $70/bbl. to about $165 - $175/bbl. A 150
percent increase in oil prices would decrease 2010 U.S. GDP by about 6 percent -- about
$900 billion. This would likely generate the most severe recession since the Great Depression.1




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                                             Plan Solves Embargoes
PLAN SOLVES HOSTILE OIL EMBARGOES AND LEADS TO FOREIGN NATIONS TO TRANSITION TO
RENEWABLE ENERGIES
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

The development of a robust alternative fuels industry that is competitive and which relies on
plentiful resources outside the Middle East will serve to constrain the volatility of crude oil
prices. As previous attempts by OPEC to control the world oil market were deterred by oil
development in the North Sea and other oil provinces, an alternative fuels industry likewise
will prevent OPEC and future cartels from doing so. Not only will this help provide energy
security for the U.S., but the resulting stabilized oil prices will also encourage and assist third-
world development.




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                                                           CTL Solves Oil Prices
CTL WOULD LOWER STATUS QUO OIL PRICES AND BOOST THE US ECONOMY
JAMES T. BARTIS. May 2007. Testimony presented before the Senate Energy and Natural Resources. ―Policy Issues for Coal-to- Liquid Development‖
As part of RAND‘s examination of coal-to-liquid fuels development, our research is addressing the strategic benefits of having in place a mature coal-to-liquid fuels industry producing

                If coal-derived liquids were added to the world oil market, such liquids would
millions of barrels of oil per day.

cause world oil prices to be lower than what would be the case if they were not produced . This
effect occurs regardless of what fuel is being considered. It holds for coal-derived liquids and for oil shale, heavy oils, tar sands, and biomass-derived liquids, as well as, for that matter,
additional supplies of conventional petroleum. The price reduction effect also occurs when oil demand is reduced through fiscal measures, such as taxes on oil, or through the
introduction of advanced technologies that use less petroleum, such as higher mileage vehicles. Moreover, this reduction in world oil prices is independent of where such additional

                                                                        This anticipated reduction
production or energy conservation occurs, as long as the additional production is outside of OPEC and OPEC-cooperating nations…

in world oil prices yields important economic benefits. In particular, American consumers
would pay tens of billions of dollars less for oil or, under some future situations, hundreds of
billions of dollars less for oil per year. On a per-household basis, we estimate that the average
annual benefit would range from a few hundred to a few thousand dollars.




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                                                        CTL Prevent Shocks
CTL TECHNOLOGY WOULD REDUCE RISKS FOR US ECONOMY
Kraemer 6
Thomas G. Kraemer. 3/22/06. Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railway Co. ―Coal: America‘s Energy Future‖

Risks for the United States economy and to our national security could be substantially
reduced by employing coal-to-liquids technology to produce upwards of 2.6 million barrels per day of liquids, including gasoline, diesel,
and jet fuel, requiring 475 million tons of coal per year. These additional supplies will be crucial in relieving upward price

pressures on crude oil and petroleum products markets worldwide. In essence, the United States will emerge as a
significant producer of manufactured liquid fuels.




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                             Sufficient Domestic Alt Liquid Fuels
US HAS RESOURCES TO RELACE FOREIGN PETROLEUM DEPENDENCE
Southern States Energy Board in 6
The American Energy Security Study, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/leg_brief.html.

The U.S. is endowed with quantities of alternative oil resources that rival total worldwide
conventional oil reserves. Trillions of tons of American coal, oil shale, and renewable biomass
resources are available to be converted to premium quality liquid fuels using existing and
rapidly emerging technologies.




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                                      Economic Meltdown Coming
ECONOMIC MELTDOWN INEVITABLE WITHOUT ALF PROGRAM—PLAN SOLVES
Southern States Energy Board in 6
The American Energy Security Study, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/leg_brief.html.

The economic, national security, and environmental advantages of establishing a thriving
domestic alternative liquid fuels industry vastly outweigh the development costs. In contrast, doing
little or nothing subjects America to energy supply disruptions and to potentially severe
economic consequences.




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                                             Plan Key to Hegemony
FAILURE TO DEVELOP ALTERNATIVE CRUSHES US ECONOMY AND HEGEMONY
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

       failure to develop alternative energy options will likely expand the already massive U.S.
Conversely,

trade deficit, rather than constituting a new opportunity for economic growth . Thus, failure to
develop the alternatives will make it likely that oil shortages and price increases will harm the
United States more severely than the other developed nations, weakening its international
position relatively as well as absolutely.3




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                         Oil Dependence Crushes Readiness
US FOREIGN OIL DEPENCE CRUSHES READINESS, LEADS TO SLOCS WARS, AND LEADS TO
TERRORISM
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

The U.S. military uses between 300,000 and 400,000 barrels of fuel each day to defend our
nation (primarily jet fuel and some diesel). The dramatic run up in the cost of fuel, and the elevated risk of
supply disruptions and shortages, threatens military readiness. Protecting oil shipping and
transportation corridors and production facilities abroad requires a massive U.S. military
presence in the Middle East, costing billions of taxpayer dollars and stretching military
resources. As competition for oil intensifies, international confrontation and conflict will
become more likely as nations attempt to secure needed oil supplies. Further, U.S. funds
tendered to purchase imported oil are sometimes used to fund terrorist organizations .
HIGH OIL PRICES ARE CRUSHING READINESS
Statement of James J. Angel , Ph.D., CFA Associate Professor of Finance, McDonough School of Business Georgetown University. June 24, 2008. Committee on Senate
Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs.


The shocking increases in fuel prices are causing serious economic pain to American consumers
right now. In addition, the explosion in commodity prices has a strong impact on our homeland security. The cost of imported fuel adds to
our trade deficit and further weakens the dollar. The cost of fuel is a major element in fertilizing and harvesting crops, in fishing and logging
operations, and in military readiness and operations. Our dependence on imported oil from unstable

places is a direct threat to our security. The global political turmoil caused by high oil and
food prices also impacts our homeland security.




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                                            Plan Key to Tech Leadership
PLAN KEY TO U.S. TECH LEADERSHIP
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

The United States, which has always been on the cutting edge of technological development, can remain in the forefront in
development of the technologies for clean, alternative fuels. New and improved
technologies will likely result from the intense development of low-carbon or carbon-free
liquids plants that employ carbon capture and storage (CCS), and these technological
improvements will provide marketable commodities on the world market. In addition to developing improved,
clean technologies for producing alternative fuels, the U.S. will continue to improve CO2 EOR technologies, an area where it is already the world leader. CO2 EOR will be used

                                                 CO2 injection can also be used to enhance
increasingly around the world, and the U.S. will be in a position to capitalize on its expertise.

the production of coalbed methane and natural gas, and this value added from CO2 use
converts the gas from a liability to a strategic asset.




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                                                            Synthetic Fuels Work
SYNTHETIC JET FUELS MAKE NO DIFFERENCE IN AIRCRAFT PERFORMANCE
Dreazen in 8
U.S. Military Launches Alternative-Fuel Push Dependence on Oil Seen as Too Risky; B-1 Takes Test Flight, By YOCHI J. DREAZEN. Wall Street Journal, May 21.

                                          Last month, it was time to test artificial fuel on
The Air Force plans to finish testing all of its planes on the fuel blend by 2011.

supersonic flights. Air Force officials decided to start with a B-1 bomber, a supersonic plane
that has been in service since 1986. The test flight was assigned to Capt. Fournier and a two-man crew from the 9th Bomber Squadron at Dyess Air
Force Base, in Abilene, Texas. The unit's Latin motto, "Mors ab Alto," translates into "Death From Above." On a clear day in March, the three men took off for New Mexico with a reporter
aboard. When the B-1 crossed into the closed airspace above the White Sands Missile Range, Capt. Fournier yanked back his throttle and sent the plane climbing almost straight up,
throwing the bomber's occupants back into their seats. He then pitched into a steep dive. Pens and other small objects hovered around the cabin, weightless, until the plane leveled off
again. Capt. Fournier fired the plane's afterburners and sent the bomber roaring over the range. A small dial in the cockpit showed that the bomber was flying faster than Mach 1. Back
at Dyess, the crew packed into a small conference room to analyze the flight with a crew of military and civilian officials, including a pair of engineers from GE, which makes the bomber's

engines. Capt.  Fournier said the plane handled normally at high speeds and on sharp turns. The only
difference he noticed was that the synthetic fuel had a different smell than conventional jet
fuel. "So it didn't give you the normal buzz?" one of the engineers joked. With the B-1 certified to fly on the synthetic mix, Maj. Donald Rhymer, the deputy director of the Air Force's
alternative-fuels certification office, said the Air Force would soon test fighters such as its workhorse F-16. "Our biggest litmus test was Capt. Fournier

coming out of the B-1 and saying that it was an unremarkable flight," Maj. Rhymer said as the meeting ended. "That's
the subjective endorsement we're looking for with all of the planes."




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                                  Plan Solves Military Supply Lines
DEVELOPMENT OF COAL TO LIQUID KEY TO MILITARY ENERGY SECURITY
Kriz 7
Margaret. Advocates say that liquefied coal could break America's addiction to foreign oil; critics warn that it could create twice as much greenhouse gas as petroleum. THE NATIONAL
JOURNAL January 6, 2007

              Defense Department officials, business leaders, and lawmakers from coal states are pushing Congress to
Nevertheless, some

help create a coal-to-liquids industry to ease U.S. dependence on oil from the Middle East, Venezuela, and
other politically unstable or hostile places. "The Pentagon may see this as a strategic source of

energy supply that could fuel the military in times of extraordinary danger ," said Mark Morey, a coal expert with
Cambridge Energy Research Associates, an energy consulting firm in Cambridge, Mass.




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                                               CTL Key to Air Force
CTL KEY TO AIR FORCE FUEL SUPPLY
Montgomery (Staff writer for the Seattle Times) March 30, 2008 (The Seattle Times, 4 edition, Lexis Nexis)
                                                                                   th



For the Air Force, which consumes more than half of all the fuel that the U.S. government
uses, the cost of fueling fighters and transports is stratospheric. Every $10 increase in the price
of a barrel of oil costs the Air Force $600 million, Anderson said. Last year, the Air Force spent $5.8 billion to buy 2.6 billion gallons of fuel. In
2003, the service spent about half that $2.9 billion to buy slightly more fuel, nearly 3 billion gallons. The synthetic fuel is developed from a technology

known as the Fischer-Tropsch process, which can convert coal , natural gas or biomass into clean-burning fuel

stripped of impurities such as mercury, sulfur and carbon dioxide. Most of the flight tests have used natural gas, but Air
Force officials think their long-term energy strategy lies in liquefied coal , because the fossil fuel is so abundant in the
United States. The U.S. has 27 percent of the world's coal supply 493 billion tons and sometimes is

referred to as "the Saudi Arabia of coal."

CTL IS THE CRITICAL ISSUE OF INCREASED FORCE POSTURE
REPRESENTATIVE SOLOMON ORTIZ (D-TX); March 13, 2008 Thursday. HEARING OF THE READINESS SUBCOMMITTEE OF THE HOUSE ARMED SERVICES
COMMITTEE; SUBJECT: DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE ENERGY POSTURE

This was accomplished through an enhanced use lease which allows the installation to lease non-access land to private entities for 50 years
or more. Other plans for the use of enhanced lease -- use leases raises questions, however. The            Air Force is proposing
enhanced use lease agreement for a coal-to-liquid production facility at Malmstrom Air Force Base and for nuclear power
plants on other Air Force installations. I am concerned that use of such long-term commitment may impede a base primary mission
and could result in another form of encroachment. I would be very interested to hear whether the department -- for the department thinks
this proposal serves the overall good for installations. I also hope to address the criteria we use to evaluate choices that affect energy use.
For example, what lessons are being learned from the pilot study using the (fully burn cost ?) of fuel for mobility systems. Of course we are
also anxious to learn about recommendations by the Defense Science Board and Government Accountability Office, as well as specific
energy solutions and challenges from the department's perspective. I look forward to thoughtful testimony from the distinguished witnesses
we have invited here today on this and other issues of interest to my colleagues on the subcommittee. The chair now recognizes my good
friend, the distinguished gentleman from Virginia, Mr. Forbes, for any remark that he would like to make. REP. RANDY FORBES (R-VA): Mr.
                                                                             only the issues that are impacting
Chairman, I first want to applaud your leadership and foresight in addressing not
military readiness today, but also issues that are long- term threats to the readiness of the
Department of Defense. Today's hearing on DOD's energy posture and the hearing we had this past Tuesday on inherently governmental
functions address issues that are complex and very often ill-defined. They require long-range strategy and

commitment if we are to have an impact, if they truly are issues that define and underpin
the readiness posture of the department.




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CTL IS KEY TO THE INFRASTRUCTURE OF MILITARY READINESS
Federal News Service. February 28, 2008 Thursday. HEARING OF THE READINESS SUBCOMMITTEE OF THE HOUSE ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEE.
http://www.lexis.com/research/retrieve?_m=f2a1d389620843dc0ab8439ece5743c3&searchType=&docnum=3&_fmtstr=FULL&_startdoc=1&wchp=dGLbVtz-
zSkAB&_md5=2cc6c8abe98c0b76a7f6b58856bdc8f6&focBudTerms=%22coal%20to%20liquid%22%20and%20%22military%20readiness%22%0D%0A&focBudSel=all

This hearing is the first of a series of Budget and Oversight hearings, the Readiness Subcommittee will conduct on the current state of military readiness, and how this budget addresses the

real readiness needs of the services. I share the chairman's great concern about the state of our military
readiness and our nation's ability to respond to troubled areas throughout the world. I agree that
our military needs more resources to replenish and repair equipment worn out in fighting the global war
on terrorism. But as we all know building readiness is a complex art with many components. Like most complex subjects success begins with a strong base. I bring this up today
to underscore that installation readiness, the subject of today's hearing is a vital component of military readiness and the base upon which readiness is built. Readiness

begins with the military services real property infrastructure ; the training ranges, air space, sea lanes, and buildings used by our
troops to prepare for the arduous missions they face around the world… At Nellis Air Force Base, Nevada, through a public and private partnership we installed the largest solar array in
the Americas producing 14.2 megawatts of clean renewable power while delivering savings of nearly $1 million a year to the installation and to the American taxpayer. Our underutilized

                in Montana the Air Force is exploring the potential for a privately financed
land at the Malmstrom Air Force Base

and operated coal-to-liquid fuel plant. We are also pursuing energy enhanced use lease projects at Edwards Air Force Base in California, Luke Air
Force Base in Arizona, and Kirtland Air Force Base in New Mexico. We're also looking into the merits of hosting a small package nuclear facility on an Air Force installation at the request of

                                                            Not only have we committed to
several members of Congress. At the same time the Air Force recognized that energy and environment are tightly linked.

purchase only alternative energy resources with a greener footprint in current options, the Air
Force has committed to be a leader in establishing a global consortium to tackle the
reduction, capture and reuse of greenhouse gas emissions.

CTL WOULD SOLVE THE AIRFORCE’S DEPENDENCE ON FOREIGN OIL
Montgomery (Staff writer for the Seattle Times) March 30, 2008 (The Seattle Times, 4 edition, Lexis Nexis
                                                                                                       th

http://www.lexisnexis.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T4020573023&format=GNBFI&sort=BOOLEAN&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T40205730
26&cisb=22_T4020573025&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=222065&docNo=5)

                          the Air Force is converting its gas-guzzling fleet of aircraft to
Squeezed by the soaring cost of oil-based jet fuel,

synthetic fuels and encouraging the creation of a liquefied coal industry that could tap the
nation's vast coal reserves. This could mean a lucrative new market for coal-producing states such as Wyoming, Kentucky, Montana, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Texas
and West Virginia. But advocates of liquefied coal face a counterattack from environmentalists in the debate over global warming and must prove that they can produce an

                              Air Force officials have been testing synthetic fuels based on
ecologically friendly product with a low carbon footprint.

coal or natural gas. They plan to certify the fleet of nearly 6,000 aircraft to fly on a 50-50
blend of synthetic fuel and traditional petroleum-based jet fuel by 2011. Assistant Air Force
Secretary Bill Anderson said the search for affordable, cleaner-burning alternative fuels was
driven by economic and national security concerns. The Air Force wants to comply with
President Bush's mandate to end America's dependence on foreign oil while escaping
soaring fuel prices.




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CTL KEY TO PREVENT LOSS OF FUEL SUPPLY FOR AMERICAN AIR POWER
Anderson 2007, (Air Force Senior Energy Official), Oct, 13 (William, USAF website, http://www.af.mil/news/story.asp?id=123071452
The mission of the Air Force is to deliver air power for the defense of America and its global
interests, a mission that requires a rapid-response fighting force capable of flying and fighting
in air, space and cyberspace anywhere at anytime. Every October, the Air Force, along with the rest of the federal government, recognizes Energy Awareness
Month. Our theme this year echoes our energy vision: "Making energy a consideration in all we do." This vision serves as the foundation of our energy strategy: -- Reduce demand by
increasing our energy efficiency and reducing our energy consumption -- Increase supply by researching, testing and certifying new technologies, as well as investigating cutting edge
uses of renewable and conventional sources of energy in order to create new domestic sources of supply -- Change the culture to ensure energy is a consideration in all we do. Energy,
from JP-8 in our aircraft to electricity in our air operation centers, powers our combat capability, allowing us to fly, fight and win our nation's wars. The Air Force consumed almost 2.6 billion
gallons of aviation fuel in fiscal 2006 at a cost of almost $5.8 billion. Our total energy bill exceeded $7 billion when we include energy to operate our bases and fuel our ground vehicles.
We need to think about how energy is essential to this mission and our priorities of winning the war on terrorism, preparing for future conflicts and humanitarian missions, taking care of

                                              We need to think about how energy is essential to
Airmen and recapitalizing and modernizing our air, space and cyberspace systems.

this mission and our priorities of winning the war on terrorism, preparing for future conflicts and humanitarian missions, taking
care of Airmen and recapitalizing and modernizing our air, space and cyberspace systems. In his state of the union address last January, President Bush said, "For too long our nation has

             foreign oil. And this dependence leaves us more vulnerable to hostile regimes and to
been dependent on

terrorists who could cause huge disruptions in oil shipments, raise the price of oil and do harm
to our economy." The president challenged our nation to wean itself off its addiction to foreign oil. To meet that challenge, we have
been identifying new domestic sources of supply. In August, the B-52 Stratofortress fleet was
certified to use a 50/50 blend of synthetic fuel and traditional JP-8. The C-17 Globemaster III is the next airframe
we'll certify, and we're on course to certify the entire Air Force aircraft fleet by early 2011.

AIR FORCE CONSUMES $4.2 BILLION OF OIL A YEAR. COAL TO LIQUID FUEL IS A NEEDED LONG
TERM SOLUTION
Wicke 6
Russell Wicke (Tech. Sgt. at Air Combat Command Public Affairs) Air force Petroleum Agency: RISING FUEL COSTS TIGHTEN AIR FORCE BELT. 9/8/2006. Accessed on June 25, 2008.
<http://www.afpa.af.mil/news/story.asp?id=123051308>

Another potential solution being explored is the coal-to-jet-fuel initiative. The Air Force is already involved
in a series of tests of the synthetic fuel . A B-52 Stratofortress from the 5th Bomb Wing at Minot Air Force Base, N.D., is scheduled for a test flight this
month at Edwards AFB, Calif. During the test flight, two of the eight engines will run on a mixture of this synthetic fuel. Though experts disagree on whether the cost of this synthetic fuel

will be competitive with fossil fuel,    the "coal-made" synthetic fuel burns cleaner, according to Michael Aimone, Air Force assistant deputy
chief of staff for logistics, installations and mission support. He said it emits no sulfur dioxide and pollutes much less than fossil

fuel. Additionally, the United States has a coal reserve of about 500 billion tons, according to the National Mining Association, enough to "support a growing coal demand for over
200 years." But again, the cost is high up front to create facilities and plants to produce this synthetic fuel in large amounts. It takes years to build large plants for this

purpose, according to the NMA Web site at www.nma.org. Nonetheless, a long-term solution would benefit the Air Force

more than any other organization. The Air Force Times reported the Defense Department is
among the world's largest oil consumers. And within DOD, "the Air Force is the largest
consumer of petroleum among the services."
The DESC fact book numbers agree with the claim: The Army, Navy and Marines spent a combined total of $3.57 billion in fiscal 2005 on petroleum. The Air Force spent more than $4.2
billion that same year.




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THE US AIR FORCE IS OIL DEPENDENT—CTL IS KEY
Wolf. [writer for Reuters]. October 27, 2007. [Jim. ―US Air Force Turns to Alternative Fuel, Slashing CO2‖. Environmental News Network.
http://www.enn.com/pollution/article/24117]

Coal was abundant in United States and renewable energy sources could not meet growing
energy demands. "Coal is going to play big in the future, we believe, based on all
projections," said Anderson, assistant secretary for installations, environment and logistics. U.S. Air Force global operations require a
huge amount of energy. In fiscal 2006, the service consumed almost 2.6 billion gallons of
aviation fuel at a cost of more than $5.7 billion, according to an Air Force fact sheet. Jet fuel
accounts for 81 percent of the Air Force's total $7 billion a year in energy spending, said Anderson.
For every $10 jump in the price of a barrel of oil, Air Force costs rise $610 million, a sum that
eats into modernization efforts and other programs if not offset by additional funds from Congress, he said.
CTL IS CRITICAL TO FEND OFF THE AIR FORCES MASSIVE DEPENDENCE ON OIL
Montgomery. [writer for The Sun Herald]. March 30, 2008. [Dave. ―Air Force leads push to liquefied coal fuel‖. The Seattle Times.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2004315533_coalpower30.html]

The Air Force wants to comply with President Bush's mandate to end America's dependence on foreign oil while
escaping soaring fuel prices. For the Air Force, which consumes more than half of all the fuel
that the U.S. government uses, the cost of fueling fighters and transports is stratospheric.
Every $10 increase in the price of a barrel of oil costs the Air Force $600 million, Anderson
said. Last year, the Air Force spent $5.8 billion to buy 2.6 billion gallons of fuel. In 2003, the
service spent about half that — $2.9 billion — to buy slightly more fuel, nearly 3 billion gallons.
The synthetic fuel is developed from a technology known as the Fischer-Tropsch process,
which can convert coal, natural gas or biomass into clean-burning fuel stripped of impurities such as mercury, sulfur
and carbon dioxide. Most of the flight tests have used natural gas, but Air Force officials think their long-term energy strategy lies

in liquefied coal, because the fossil fuel is so abundant in the United States. The U.S. has 27
percent of the world's coal supply — 493 billion tons — and sometimes is referred to as "the
Saudi Arabia of coal." Despite its availability, however, coal seldom has been seriously considered as an alternative energy source because converting it to liquid is
so expensive. But liquid coal is getting a fresh look as crude-oil prices soar past $100 a barrel.



COAL TO LIQUID FACTORIES KEY TO AIRFORCE PLATFORM IN EXTREME CRISIS (IF OIL SUPPLY IS
SHAKEN)
Sandalow 8
David Sandalow (Energy and Environent Scholar and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution) FREEDOM FROM OIL. 2008. Pg 132




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                                       Air Power Key to Afghanistan
U.S. AIRPOWER IS VITAL TO THE WAR IN AFGHANISTAN
Kagan in 8
Frederic, Two Decades Late - A post-Cold War military for a post-Cold War world. National Review June 16, 2008

                                                         Investments in precision air power (in the Air Force,
The approach of dividing the defense pie evenly among the services has yielded invaluable benefits.

Navy, and Marines) have been tremendously important to our operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, as

the ability to put large or small ordnance exactly on a designated target at very short notice
has transformed the "kinetic" (combat) part of counter-insurgency operations. And the strains on the Air
Force and the Navy to provide this support in Iraq and Afghanistan are manageable. But the strains on the Army and the Marines created by keeping more than 180,000 pairs of boots

                                          The F-15s and Nimitz-class carriers designed to defeat advanced Soviet systems are
on the ground in Iraq and Afghanistan for years are orders of magnitude greater.

perfectly useful against insurgents in headbands and sneakers waving AK-47s (although the F-15s and other
aircraft are getting old and wearing out, and will need to be replaced sooner rather than later). But Humvees and trucks that were never designed for combat zones are dangerously
inadequate in the face of advanced IEDs. The current conflicts are bearing disproportionately on the ground forces, something for which today's military structure was not designed.




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                                                       Air Power Key to Iraq
AIRPOWER IS A KEY ELEMENT IN IRAQ, BUT ONE DAY OF MISSIONS USES 3 MILLION POUNDS OF
FUEL.
Department of Defense 08, May 21 (Air Force Releases, Lexis Nexis,
http://www.lexisnexis.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T4038163198&format=GNBFI&sort=BOOLEAN&startDocNo=26&resultsUrlKey=29_T4038164
801&cisb=22_T4038164800&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=247474&docNo=31)

In Iraq, coalition aircraft flew 65 close-air-support missions for Operation Iraqi Freedom. These
missions integrated and synchronized coalition ground forces, protected key infrastructure,
provided overwatch for reconstruction activities and helped to deter and disrupt terrorist
activities. Twenty-four Air Force and Navy intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance aircraft flew missions as part of operations in Iraq. Additionally, six Air Force and Navy
aircraft performed tactical reconnaissance. Air Force C-130 Hercules aircraft and C-17 Globemaster IIIs provided intra-theater heavy airlift, helping to sustain operations throughout
Afghanistan, Iraq and the Horn of Africa. Approximately 136 airlift sorties were flown, 513 tons of cargo delivered and 2,997 passengers were transported. This included approximately

                                                                                  French
22,200 pounds of troop re-supply air-dropped in Afghanistan. Coalition C-130 crews from Japan flew as part of operations in Afghanistan or Iraq. On May 20, Air Force,

and RAF tanker crews flew 53 sorties and off-loaded approximately 2.9 million pounds of fuel
to 222 receiving aircraft.




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US AIR FORCE KEY TO US MILITARY HARDPOWER—DESERT STORM PROVES
Posen 2003, (Professor of Political Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a member of its Security Studies Program. During the past academic year, he was a
                                                              Military Foundation of U.S. Hegemony, International Security, 5-46,
Transatlantic Fellow of the German Marshall Fund of the United States), (The
http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/international_security/v028/28.1posen.html#authbio)
An electronic flying circus of specialized attack, jamming, and electronic intelligence aircraft
allows the U.S military to achieve the "suppression of enemy air defenses" (SEAD); limit the
effectiveness of enemy radars, surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) and fighters; and achieve the
relatively safe exploitation of enemy skies above 15,000 feet. 37 Cheap and simple air defense weapons,
such as antiaircraft guns and shoulder-fired lightweight SAMs, are largely ineffective at these altitudes. Yet at these altitudes aircraft can
deliver precision-guided munitions with great accuracy and lethality, if targets have been properly located and identified. The ability of the
U.S. military to satisfy these latter two conditions varies with the nature of the targets, the operational circumstances, and the available
reconnaissance and command and control assets (as discussed below), so precision-guided munitions are not a solution to every problem.
The United States has devoted increasing effort to modern aerial reconnaissance
capabilities, including both aircraft and drones, which have improved the military's ability in
particular to employ air power against ground forces, but these assets still do not provide perfect, instantaneous
information. 38 Confidence in the quality of their intelligence, and the lethality and responsiveness of their air power, permitted U.S.
commanders to dispatch relatively small numbers of ground forces deep into Iraq in the early days of the 2003 war, without much concern
for counterattacks by large Iraqi army units. 39 The U.S. military maintains a vast stockpile of precision-guided munitions and is adding to it.
As of 1995, the Pentagon had purchased nearly 120,000 air-launched precision-guided weapons for land and naval attack at a cost of $18
billion. 40 Some 20,000 of these weapons were high-speed antiradiation missiles [End Page 15] (HARMs), designed to home in on the radar
emissions of ground-based SAM systems, a key weapon for the SEAD campaign. Thousands of these bombs and missiles were launched in
Kosovo, Afghanistan, and Iraq, but tens of thousands more have been ordered. 41 The capability for precision attack at great range gives
the United States an ability to do significant damage to the infrastructure and the forces of an adversary, while that adversary can do little
                  Air power alone may not be able to determine the outcome of all wars, but it is a very significant
to harm U.S. forces.
                          42


asset. Moreover, U.S. air power has proven particularly devastating to mechanized ground
forces operating offensively, as was discovered in the only Iraqi mechanized offensive in
Desert Storm, the battle of al-Khafji, in which coalition air forces pummeled three advancing Iraqi
divisions. 43 The United States can provide unparalleled assistance to any state that fears a
conventional invasion, making it a very valuable ally.



THE AIRFORCE IS KEY TO DEFEATING THE IRAQI INSURGENCY
Associated Press 2006 Jan, 3 (Military.com, http://www.military.com/NewsContent/0,13319,84287,00.html)
The Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps flew thousands of missions in support of U.S. ground troops in Iraq
this fall, including attacks by unmanned Predator aircraft armed with Hellfire missiles, military
records show. American and allied refueling, transport and surveillance planes also are in the air. Airstrikes have been largely in areas
where the insurgency is strongest, like Balad, Ramadi and in the vicinity of Baghdad, according to the U.S. Central Command.




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                                                             Terrorism Add-On
A. THE US’S DEPENDENCE ON FOREIGN OIL SUPPORTS TERRORISM
State News Service 2008 (Arlingston, Va.) June 23 (State News Service, Lexis Nexis,
http://www.lexisnexis.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T4038339083&format=GNBFI&sort=BOOLEAN&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T40383390
86&cisb=22_T4038339085&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=8058&docNo=6

Dependence On Oil Provides Direct Support To Our Enemies And Threatens The Peace: Rising
Oil Prices Provide Massive Infusions Of Wealth To Some Of The World's Most Repressive
Dictatorships. Oil wealth enriches bad actors in the world that support terrorism, finances the
brutal repression of women in the Middle East, and supports criminal syndicates in our own
hemisphere. Iran Alone Earned $66 Billion From Oil Sales to Others Last Year. This wealth encourages Iran to finance terrorists,
threaten Israel, and defy international efforts to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons.
This wealth also allows Iran to suppress its own long-suffering population. The Formation Of The OPEC Cartel And
The Oil Embargo Of The 1970s Demonstrated Our Vulnerability. At the time of the oil embargo, we imported roughly one third of our oil. Today, we import almost two-thirds. Since 1973, the
United States has gone from importing 6 million barrels of oil a day to 12 million barrels per day with petroleum payments comprising 41 percent of the U.S. trade deficit ($293 billion of
$759 billion).


B. TERRORISM LEADS TO EXTINCTION
Alexander 2K3 (Yonah, Washington Times, August 28, LN)
Last week's brutal suicide bombings in Baghdad and Jerusalem have once again illustrated dramatically
that the international community failed, thus far at least, to understand the magnitude and
implications of the terrorist threats to the very survival of civilization itself. Even the United States and
Israel have for decades tended to regard terrorism as a mere tactical nuisance or irritant rather than a critical strategic challenge to their
national security concerns. It is not surprising, therefore, that on September 11, 2001, Americans were stunned by the unprecedented
tragedy of 19 al Qaeda terrorists striking a devastating blow at the center of the nation's commercial and military powers. Likewise, Israel
and its citizens, despite the collapse of the Oslo Agreements of 1993 and numerous acts of terrorism triggered by the second intifada that
began almost three years ago, are still "shocked" by each suicide attack at a time of intensive diplomatic efforts to revive the moribund
peace process through the now revoked cease-fire arrangements [hudna]. Why are the United States and Israel, as well as scores of other
countries affected by the universal nightmare of modern terrorism surprised by new terrorist "surprises"? There are many reasons, including
misunderstanding of the manifold specific factors that contribute to terrorism's expansion, such as lack of a universal definition of terrorism,
the religionization of politics, double standards of morality, weak punishment of terrorists, and the exploitation of the media by terrorist
propaganda and psychological warfare. Unlike their historical counterparts, contemporary terrorists have introduced a new scale of
                                                       internationalization and brutalization
violence in terms of conventional and unconventional threats and impact. The
of current and future terrorism make it clear we have entered an Age of Super Terrorism [e.g.
biological, chemical, radiological, nuclear and cyber] with its serious implications concerning
national, regional and global security concerns.




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                       Oil Dependence Crushes Hegemony
CONTINUED OIL DEPENDENCE BOOSTS REVENUES FOR HOSTILE NATIONS AND CHALLENGES U.S.
LEADERSHIP
JAMES T. BARTIS. May 2007. Testimony presented before the Senate Energy and Natural Resources. ―Policy Issues for Coal-to- Liquid Development‖


This anticipated reduction in world oil prices associated with coal-to-liquids development also yields
a major national security benefit. At present, OPEC revenues from oil exports are about $500
billion per year. Projections of future petroleum supply and demand published by the
Department of Energy indicate that unless measures are taken to reduce the prices of, and
demand for, OPEC petroleum, such revenues will grow considerably. These high revenues
raise serious national security concerns, because some OPEC member nations are governed
by regimes that are not supportive of U.S. foreign policy objectives . Income from petroleum exports has been used by
unfriendly nations, such as Iran and Iraq under Saddam Hussein, to support weapons purchases, or to develop their own industrial base for munitions manufacture. Also, the

higher prices rise, the greater the chances that oil-importing countries will pursue special
relationships with oil exporters and defer joining the United States in multilateral diplomatic
efforts.




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                                       Air Power Key to Hegemony
THE AIRFORCE IS KEY TO AMERICAN MILITARY PREEMINENCE
PNAC 2K( Project for the New American Century, a non profit educational organization) Sept. (Rebuilding America‘s Defenses,
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/pdf/RebuildingAmericasDefenses.pdf)

"Because of its inherent mobility and flexibility, the Air Force will be the first U.S. military force
to arrive in a theater during times of crisis; as such, the Air Force must retain its ability to
deploy and sustain sufficient numbers of aircraft to deter wars and shape any conflict in its
earliest stages. Indeed, it is the Air Force, along with the Army, that remains the core of America‘s ability to
apply decisive military power when its pleases. To dissipate this ability to deliver a rapid
hammer blow is to lose the key component of American military preeminence"




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                                                          Readiness Low Now
READINESS IS LOW NOW, AND THE US CANNOT CARRY OUT IT’S OBJECTIVES
Spencer 2000 (Policy Analyst for Defense and National Security in the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies at The Heritage Foundation.) Sept.
15, (Jack, The Heritage Foundation, The Facts About Military Readiness, http://www.heritage.org/Research/MissileDefense/BG1394.cfm)

The evidence indicates that the   U.S. armed forces are not ready to support America's national security
requirements. Moreover, regarding the broader capability to defeat groups of enemies, military readiness has been declining. The National Security Strategy, the
U.S. official statement of national security objectives, concludes that the United States "must have the capability to deter
                                                          3



and, if deterrence fails, defeat large-scale, cross-border aggression in two distant theaters in
overlapping time frames." According to some of the military's highest-ranking officials,
                                                  4



however, the United States cannot achieve this goal. Commandant of the Marine Corps General
James Jones, former Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Jay Johnson, and Air Force Chief of Staff General Michael Ryan

have all expressed serious concerns about their respective services' ability to carry out a two
major theater war strategy. Recently retired Generals Anthony Zinni of the U.S. Marine Corps and George Joulwan of the U.S. Army have even
                                                      5

questioned America's ability to conduct one major theater war the size of the 1991 Gulf War.




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                            Readiness Solves Major Power War
READINESS KEY TO PREVENT MAJOR POWER WAR
Spencer 2000 (Policy Analyst for Defense and National Security in the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies at The Heritage Foundation.) Sept.
15, (Jack, The Heritage Foundation, The Facts About Military Readiness, http://www.heritage.org/Research/MissileDefense/BG1394.cfm)

Military readiness is vital because declines in America's military readiness signal to the rest of
the world that the United States is not prepared to defend its interests. Therefore, potentially
hostile nations will be more likely to lash out against American allies and interests, inevitably
leading to U.S. involvement in combat. A high state of military readiness is more likely to
deter potentially hostile nations from acting aggressively in regions of vital national interest,
thereby preserving peace.




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                                     Air Force Readiness Low Now
AIR FORCE READINESS LOW NOW
PNAC 2K( Project for the New American Century, a non profit educational organization) Sept. (Rebuilding America‘s Defenses,
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/pdf/RebuildingAmericasDefenses.pdf)

      the Air Force has begun to adapt itself to the new requirements of the time, yet is far from completing the needed
In sum,

changes to its posture, structure, or programs. Moreover, the Air Force is too small – especially
its fleet of support aircraft – and poorly positioned to conduct sustained operations for
maintaining American military preeminence.

AIR FORCE READINESS DECLINING NOW
PNAC 2K( Project for the New American Century, a non profit educational organization) Sept. (Rebuilding America‘s Defenses,
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/pdf/RebuildingAmericasDefenses.pdf)

       Air Force ―readiness is slipping – it‘s not just anecdotal; it‘s factual,‖ says Gen. Michael Ryan, the Air
As a result,
Force Chief of Staff. Since 1996, according to Ryan, the Air Force has experienced ―an overall 14
percent degradation in the operational readiness of our major operational units.‖ And although
Air Force leaders claim that the service holds all its units at the same levels of readiness – that it does not, as the Navy does, practice
                                            the level of readiness in stateside units has slipped
―tiered‖ readiness where first-to-fight units get more resources –
below those deployed overseas. For example, Air Combat Command, the main tactical fighter
command based in the United States, has suffered a 50 percent drop in readiness rates,
compared to the service-wide drop in operational readiness of 14 percent.




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                       US Hegemony Prevents Nuclear War
US LEADERSHIP IS KEY TO PREVENT NUCLEAR WAR
Khalilzad 95 (http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_r...25/index2.html , RAND Institute)
A return to pre-World War II multipolarity. This option would rely on the balance of power among several nations to preclude the
emergence of a preeminent superpower. As in the 19th century, the United States and other global powers would compete and
cooperate to avoid hegemony and global war. There could be advantages for the United States in a such a strategy, including a lower
defense burden--but less than might be the case with a neoisolationist strategy. The risks, however, could be severe. They include the
possibility that the other powers would not cooperate fully; that the United States is likely to face increased competition from other major
powers; that a decline in U.S. influence might have negative economic consequences, including a weakening of GATT and the IMF; that
the members of such a system would find it too difficult to behave according to its rules; and that such a world could lead to new arms
                        world in which the United States exercises leadership would be more
races and even global wars.A
peaceful and more open to values of liberal democracy, free markets, and the rule of law.
Such a world is likely to have a better chance of dealing cooperatively with the world's
major problems, such as nuclear proliferation, threats of regional hegemony and lower-level
conflicts, and the long-run avoidance of new world wars with their enormous costs and
consequences. Over time the relative position of the United States would decline, and the world would most likely settle into a
balance-of-power multipolar system--and become more dangerous for the United States. The development of a multipolar world is not
inevitable. It depends to a significant degree on what this nation wants and does.




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                                           Air Power Key to Iran Attack
A US AIR FORCE ATTACK IS AMERICA’S WAY TO BRING DOWN IRAN’S REGIME
O‘Donnell 2006 (Proffessor at University of Michigan) April 28 ( Tom, Z Magazine, The political economy of the U.S.-Iran crisis: Oil hegemony, not nukes, is the real issue,
http://www-personal.umich.edu/~twod/writing/z_iran_28apr06c-wkg.pdf)


Of course, it is not possible to predict American military tactics with any certainty; however,   let us look soberly at the present stage of the
U.S. regime-change process vis-à-vis Iran. Iran has a respectable Air Force, and significant amounts of surface-to-surface, anti-ship, and other
missiles. In the course of a U.S. bombing campaign against Iran‘s nuclear sites, it would be likely

for the Iranian Air Force to challenge American planes (not to do so would disgrace the regime). The U.S. would
likely use this as a pretext to destroy whatever portion of the Air Force it could find, along
with Iranian radar and missile-launching facilities, etc. This would be infinitely more significant,
in the short run, than the destruction of Iran‘s nuclear facilities, which are far from producing
nuclear power-station rods, much less any high-purity bomb-grade uranium-235.17 Once Iran‘s
air force is crippled, the country would be susceptible to ground incursions by various forces
hostile to the regime. These might reasonably include Kurdisih, Azerbaijani and other nationalist separatist forces which have long fought against Iran‘s central
government;




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                      Supply Loss Would Crush Iraq War Effort
MAJOR ATTACK ON IRAQ OIL SUPPLY WOULD MEAN THE US WOULD LOSE THE IRAQ WAR
Motlagh 2006
Jason Motlagh, (deputy foreign editor at United Press International in Washington, DC) THE COST: AN ARMY AND A LEG. Asia Times online. December 14, 2006.
<http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HL14Ak07.html>

The US military at present depends almost exclusively on a single supply line that runs south
through Shi'ite-dominated southern Iraq into Kuwait. William Lind, director of the Center for Cultural Conservatism at the Washington,
DC-based Free Congress Foundation, argues that if that vital linkage were cut, US forces would not have enough fuel

to defend themselves under attack or get out of the country. Simply put, a move on Iran
could render 140,000 troops hostage in the desert. Iraq has the world's second-largest crude-oil reserves and was once a major oil
exporter, but ongoing instability has created a shortage of refined oil products. " Our forces, if cut off from their own logistics, could

not simply fuel up at local gas stations as German General Heinz Guderian's Panzer Corps
did ... in the 1940 campaign against France," Lind wrote in the December issue of The American Conservative.


LOSS OF FUEL SUPPLY TO IRAQ WOULD CRUSH US WAR EFFORT IN IRAQ
Motlagh 2006 Jason Motlagh, (deputy foreign editor at United Press International in Washington, DC) THE COST: AN ARMY AND A LEG. Asia Times online. December 14, 2006.
<http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HL14Ak07.html>

 But any coordinated effort that interrupts traffic along the US supply line could have grave
consequences. Air deliveries could not exceed 25% of daily requirements in the event
overland lines were compromised, according to Lang, and alternative ground supply lines through
Jordan or Turkey could meet resistance from Ankara officials loath to cooperate or Sunni
insurgents in deadly al-Anbar province, which must be traversed to reach Jordan. Another weak point
in the current supply line is that storage facilities at the Kuwaiti entrepot are replenished by a steady stream of goods shipped through the Iran-controlled Strait of Hormuz. Iranian warships
and sea mines would delay, or severely reduce, inbound supply shipments, as they did during the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s. Global oil markets would also quake. Iran "would close off
the entrance to the Persian Gulf and try [to] close our lines of communication from Kuwait to up to [140,000] troops stranded in the middle of Iraq", retired US Army General Barry

McCaffrey recently said on the US cable news channel MSNBC's Hardball. "You'd see a huge insurgent effort against our supply lines.      We'd be in a crisis mode
within a week of the first air strike."




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                                        Plan Solves Readiness Quickly
PLAN SOLVES AIR POWER QUICKLY EVEN NEAR-TERM BLENDS CTL SOLVES THE AIR FORCE’S
DEPENDENCE ON OIL
Peters. [associate editor of National Journal Group's Government Executive magazine]. March 18, 2008. [Katherine. ―Air Force to perform first supersonic flight using synthetic
fuel blend‖. National Journal Group. http://www.govexec.com/story_page.cfm?articleid=39553&dcn=energy]

                                                a B-1B Lancer at Dyess Air Force Base, Texas, will take to the skies and demonstrate that a
On Wednesday afternoon, Air Force leaders expect that

blend of conventional jet propellant, known as JP-8, and synthetic fuel made from gasified coal can work just as well as JP-8
alone to push the bomber across the sound barrier. The test is the latest in a series the Air Force is conducting to certify its entire air fleet to use the 50/50 fuel blend.

                                             More than half of the Defense Department
The Air Force considers the alternative fuel program central to future operations.

petroleum consumption, which itself accounts for 90 percent of the fuel used by the entire
federal government, is burned up as jet fuel. The Defense Department estimates that every $10 increase in the
price of a barrel of oil results in operating cost increases of $1.3 billion. By supplementing
regular jet fuel with synthetic fuel, military leaders hope to drive down costs and reduce the
service's dependence on foreign suppliers.




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                                           Air Power Key to Hegemony
AIR POWER KEY TO HEGEMONY
SEN. DANIEL K. AKAKA, CHAIRMAN. March 12, 2008 Wednesday. SUBCOMMITTEE ON READINESS AND MANAGEMENT SUPPORT. HEARING ON THE FISCAL YEAR 2009 BUDGET
FOR THE DOD MILITARY INSTALLATIONS
Five other major projects are in the works: three solar projects, one each in California, New Mexico, and Arizona, which we expect to be significantly larger than Nellis; a coal-to-liquids
                   Maelstrom Air Force Base; and several of your colleagues have asked the Air force to look at whether Air Force bases are
manufacturing plant at
appropriate siting locations for small package nuclear. And in each of these cases, we're talking about private finance, private
development, private operation, not using taxpayer money to make this happen, all in the commercial world. At the same time, the Air
Force recognizes that energy and the environment are tightly linked. Not only have we committed to purchase only alternative energy
resources with a greener footprint than current options, the Air Force is committed to be a leader in establishing a global consortium to
tackle the reduction, capture, and reuse of greenhouse gas emissions. The Air Force is calling for a consortium of organizations to work
                                                                                                             current and
together for carbon dioxide reduction, capture, and reuse, something we are calling CO2 RCR. In conclusion, the
future readiness and the capability of our Air Force to deter our enemies and when
necessary fight and win this nation's wars depends heavily on the state of our power
projection platforms. Those are our installations. As the Air Force continues to modernize and recapitalize,
we'll wisely invest our precious funding allocated to military construction, operations and
maintenance, BRAC, the environment, military family housing, and energy. This will enable us to win today's fight, care for
our people, and prepare for tomorrow's challenges.




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                                                        CTL Solves Readiness
CTL IS NEEDED TO SUSTAIN MILITARY READINESS
REPRESENTATIVE SOLOMON P. ORTIZ (D-TX).; February 28, 2008 Thursday. HEARING OF THE READINESS SUBCOMMITTEE OF THE HOUSE ARMED SERVICES
COMMITTEE
This hearing is the first of a series of Budget and Oversight hearings, the Readiness Subcommittee will conduct
on the current state of military readiness, and how this budget addresses the real readiness needs of the
services. I share the chairman's great concern about the state of our military readiness and
our nation's ability to respond to troubled areas throughout the world. I agree that our
military needs more resources to replenish and repair equipment worn out in fighting the
global war on terrorism. But as we all know building readiness is a complex art with many components. Like most complex subjects success begins with a strong
base. I bring this up today to underscore that installation readiness, the subject of today's hearing is a vital component of military readiness and the base upon which readiness is built.
Readiness begins with the military services real property infrastructure; the training ranges, air space, sea lanes, and buildings used by our troops to prepare for the arduous missions they

face around the world…our underutilized land at the Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana     the Air Force is exploring the potential for a
privately financed and operated coal-to-liquid fuel plant. We are also pursuing energy enhanced
use lease projects at Edwards Air Force Base in California, Luke Air Force Base in Arizona, and Kirtland Air Force Base in New Mexico. We're also looking into the merits of hosting a small
package nuclear facility on an Air Force installation at the request of several members of Congress. At the same time the Air Force recognized that energy and environment are tightly
linked. Not only have we committed to purchase only alternative energy resources with a greener footprint in current options, the Air Force has committed to be a leader in establishing a
global consortium to tackle the reduction, capture and reuse of greenhouse gas emissions.


CTL IS THE KEY TO MILITARY READINESS
SEN. KENT CONRAD, CHAIRMAN. February 7, 2007 Wednesday. ―THE FISCAL YEAR 2008 BUDGET PROPOSAL‖

As we restrain spending, we're also investing in our nation's highest priorities, combating terrorism, protecting the homeland,
addressing pocketbook issues that affect the standard of living of American families. We've talked about the fact that the budget supports our troops fighting terrorism abroad. It also

                                                  and to continue transforming our military to
invests substantial resources to many high-levels of military readiness in our DOD base budget

meet the challenges of the new century… Also, the coal to liquids technology, I think that will play a
huge role in the future of energy for this country. The president placed quite an emphasis on it, and I'd like to know if the administration
plans to help move forward with that development of coal to liquid technologies as part of the loan guarantee program and if we're ever going to get that in place.

CTL IS THE KEY TO MILITARY READINESS
SEN. KENT CONRAD, CHAIRMAN. February 7, 2007 Wednesday. ―THE FISCAL YEAR 2008 BUDGET PROPOSAL‖

As we restrain spending, we're also investing in our nation's highest priorities, combating terrorism, protecting the homeland,
addressing pocketbook issues that affect the standard of living of American families. We've talked about the fact that the budget supports our troops fighting terrorism abroad. It also

                                                  and to continue transforming our military to
invests substantial resources to many high-levels of military readiness in our DOD base budget

meet the challenges of the new century… Also, the coal to liquids technology, I think that will play a
huge role in the future of energy for this country. The president placed quite an emphasis on it, and I'd like to know if the administration
plans to help move forward with that development of coal to liquid technologies as part of the loan guarantee program and if we're ever going to get that in place.


CTL IS THE KEY TO MILITARY READINESS
SEN. KENT CONRAD, CHAIRMAN. February 7, 2007 Wednesday. ―THE FISCAL YEAR 2008 BUDGET PROPOSAL‖

As we restrain spending, we're also investing in our nation's highest priorities, combating terrorism, protecting the homeland,
addressing pocketbook issues that affect the standard of living of American families. We've talked about the fact that the budget supports our troops fighting terrorism abroad. It also

                                                  and to continue transforming our military to
invests substantial resources to many high-levels of military readiness in our DOD base budget

meet the challenges of the new century… Also, the coal to liquids technology, I think that will play a
huge role in the future of energy for this country. The president placed quite an emphasis on it, and I'd like to know if the administration
plans to help move forward with that development of coal to liquid technologies as part of the loan guarantee program and if we're ever going to get that in place.




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CTL IS THE KEY TO MILITARY READINESS
SEN. KENT CONRAD, CHAIRMAN. February 7, 2007 Wednesday. ―THE FISCAL YEAR 2008 BUDGET PROPOSAL‖

As we restrain spending, we're also investing in our nation's highest priorities, combating terrorism, protecting the homeland,
addressing pocketbook issues that affect the standard of living of American families. We've talked about the fact that the budget supports our troops fighting terrorism abroad. It also

                                                  and to continue transforming our military to
invests substantial resources to many high-levels of military readiness in our DOD base budget

meet the challenges of the new century… Also, the coal to liquids technology, I think that will play a
huge role in the future of energy for this country. The president placed quite an emphasis on it, and I'd like to know if the administration
plans to help move forward with that development of coal to liquid technologies as part of the loan guarantee program and if we're ever going to get that in place.


CTL STOPS SOLVES MILITARY READINESS
Bill Nelson. October 31, 2005 Monday. The Tallahassee Democrat (Florida). ―Drilling won't solve energy crisis‖


       , the greedy oil industry now is attempting to undo this long-standing ban - with misleading claims and
Unfortunately

without good cause. And it is putting at risk not only Florida's environmental treasures and tourist-driven economy, but also our
nation's military readiness and the environments of other coastal states. Last Wednesday, the U.S. House Resources Committee rejected efforts to block this
industry-backed provision that could subject all coastal states to drilling 25 miles off their shores. Currently, waters up to 285 miles off Tampa Bay are protected from drilling. But one
pending, irresponsible proposal could bring gas rigs within 25 miles of the state and oil rigs within 50 miles. It's being sold as a way to increase current oil supplies and reduce our
dependency on foreign oil sources. However, it does nothing to achieve those goals, while placing Florida's $50billion tourism economy in serious jeopardy. Studies have found there is
relatively little oil in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and that drilling in the area will make no difference in high gas prices or our current foreign oil dependency. While this additional drilling
was proposed in response to the current interruption in supply following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, new rigs in the Gulf also would be highly vulnerable to future hurricanes. The new
drilling would do nothing to maintain the nation's oil supply in the event of another similar natural disaster. Placing our state's economy and environmental resources in jeopardy for only
marginal returns is simply not worth the risk. Florida's overall economic health is dependent on preserving the coastal areas that draw tourists to our state from all over the globe. A single
spill would leave blackened beaches and a devastated tourism industry. Protecting our coasts from dangerous and unsightly offshore drilling makes good economic sense for Florida,
regardless of political party or ideology. Over the past few months, I've worked closely with both Republicans and Democrats, including Florida GOP Sen. Mel Martinez. U.S. Reps. Connie
Mack III, also a Republican, and Jim Davis, a Democrat, along with 20 other members of Florida's bipartisan congressional delegation signed a letter in opposition to drilling closer to the

state. And earlier this month 19 senators from coastal states and both political parties publicly urged their colleagues
to reject efforts to end the ban on offshore oil drilling. This is an issue that should concern all Americans, not just those
living along our nation's coasts. All Americans should be concerned because the eastern Gulf provides a

unique training and testing area for our nation's military forces. Under a 1983 agreement with the Reagan administration,
both the Navy and Air Force have been using the open waters there for crucial air and sea training and testing that cannot be conducted elsewhere. In response to the recent drilling
proposals and at my request, Sens. John Warner and Carl Levin, the committee chair and ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, agreed to have the Pentagon
review the impact of any new drilling. I look forward to hearing the Pentagon's findings, and will work to ensure that essential military operations in the Gulf of Mexico are not interrupted.
While most Floridians and their elected officials agree that we need to prevent oil drilling off our coast, we also recognize that Congress must address U.S. oil shortages, foreign

dependency, and the high gas prices.      I believe there are ways of solving these problems without placing our
economy and environment in danger. Raising the required fuel efficiency standards for cars by 9 miles per gallon would save the United States
about a fourth of all the oil we currently import - significantly decreasing our dependency. Practical alternative fuel technology exists as well. Ethanol, nuclear power plants, and gas

made from coal offer attractive alternatives to drilling. Consider that the United States has
only about 3 percent of all the world's oil reserves, meaning there's no way to drill our way
out of this crisis. Instead, we must conserve energy and develop alternative fuels - while continuing to
protect Florida's strong economy, unique environmental resources, and unmatched military training sites by stopping current proposals to expand drilling in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.




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                                                            CTL Key the B.U.F.F.
CTL THE KEY LINK TO ESTABLISH THE BATTLEFIELD UNIVERSAL FUEL OF THE FUTURE
Lamprecht. 2007. Sasol Technology Research and Development. ―Fischer-Tropsch Fuel for Use by the U.S. Military as Battlefield-Use Fuel of the Future.‖
http://pubs.acs.org/cgi-bin/abstract.cgi/enfuem/2007/21/i03/abs/ef060607m.html
The United States Department of Defense (DoD) has been interested in low-sulfur, environmentally cleaner Fischer-
Tropsch (FT) fuels since 2001 because they want to be less dependent upon foreign crude oil and ensure

the security of the supply. A three-phase Joint Battlefield-Use Fuel of the Future (BUFF)
program was initiated to evaluate, demonstrate, certify, and implement turbine fuels
produced from alternative energy resources for use in all of its gas turbine and diesel engine
applications. Sasol Synfuels International (Pty) Ltd. and Sasol Chevron Holdings Ltd., among others, were invited to
participate in the program with the objective to supply the DoD with a FT BUFF that conforms
to Jet Propulsion 8 (JP-8) and JP-5 fuel volatility and low-temperature fluidity requirements. Although the DoD is more interested in coal-to-
liquid (CTL) technology, the product from a gas-to-liquid (GTL) Products Work-Up Demonstration Unit in Sasolburg, South Africa, was used to evaluate (on a bench
scale) the possibility of producing a BUFF fraction from the Sasol Slurry Phase Distillate (Sasol SPD) low-temperature FT (LTFT) process and Chevron Isocracking technology. It was

concluded from the study that the production of a synthetic FT BUFF is feasible using the Sasol SPD LTFT
technology together with the current Chevron isocracking technology.


CTL IS THE SOLUTION FOR BATTLEFIELD UNIVERSAL FUEL OF THE FUTURE—KEY TOTAL MILITARY
ENERGY INDEPENDENCE
ScienceDaily 2007
ScienceDaily, ―Synthetic Fuels From Alternative Energy Sources Can Power The U. S. Military‖ April 24, 2007. Accessd on: June 27, 2008
<http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/04/070423100221.htm>

The U.S. military, searching for a synthetic alternative to imported petroleum-based fuel, can
power its 21st Century vehicles with the same chemical technology Germany used to produce its gasoline during World War II, according to a study
scheduled for the May 16 issue of ACS' Energy and Fuels, a bi-monthly journal. In the study, Sasol Technology's Delanie Lamprecht points out that the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)

has been seeking   alternative                                                  JP-8
                                            ways of obtaining "Jet Propulsion 8" (      ). DoD uses that single kerosene-type fuel, virtually identical to commercial aviation fuel, for almost
all its gas turbine and tactical diesel engine applications. The defense department also wants an alternative route to JP-5, a slightly different fuel used on aircraft carriers. Invited to
participate in the effort to develop alternatives, Lamprecht studied use of so-called Fischer-Tropsch technology. Sasol is a pioneer in use of the technology to produce synthetic fuels

      It can convert coal, natural gas, or biomass into a synthesis gas and thereafter into a
from coal.

Fischer-Tropsch syncrude suitable for refining into JP-8, JP-5 and other liquid fuels. The study
concluded that it is feasible to use the process, together with current refining technology, to
produce a "battlefield fuel of the future" that could power the military without reliance on
imported oil.




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                                    Extended Contracts Key to BUFF
CTL MEETS BUFF SPECIFICATIONS WITH LONG TERM CONTRACTS
Nemeth 2005
Kenneth J. Nemeth, (Executive Director Southern States Energy Board) Southern States Energy Security. ―AMERICAN ENERGY SECURITY‖. 2005. Accessed on June 27, 2008
<http://www.sseb.org/currentprograms/cpa_aes.htm>

                                                             Through the development of BUFF specifications, it
Total oil consumption by U.S. military forces is approximately 400,000 barrels per day.

is believed that a substantial portion of this requirement can be met with domestically
produced alternative liquid fuels. The DoD desires to enter into long-term contracts for the
purchase of alternative fuels made in the United States from domestic resources. This is part
of DoD‘s Total Energy Development Program (TED), with a stated mission to ―catalyze industry development and
investment in [alternative] energy resources.‖ Congressional support is encouraged for DoD‘s
TED program, including extending its long-term contracting capabilities from five to as long
as 25 years. Appropriate and necessary authorizations and funding should be given high
priority. DoD fuel purchases under long-term contracts can help establish a foundation on
which to build a new alternative fuels industry, and secure, high quality U.S.-made alternative
liquid fuels will help our military.




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                                      Plan Solves Readiness Quickly
PLAN SOLVES QUICKLY. ONLY A FEW PLANTS ARE NEEDED FOR MILITARY SUPPLY SECURITY
Lengyel 7
Gregory J. Lengyel, Colonel, USAF. August 2007. The Brookings Institution Washington, D.C. ―Department of Defense Energy Strategy: Teaching an Old Dog New Tricks‖

A relatively small synthetic fuel plant, processing 17,000 tons per day of coal to produce 28,000
barrels per day of fuel, 750 tons per day of ammonia, and 475MW of net electrical power
would cost approximately $3 billion.40 Ten to fifteen such plants could supply all of the
DOD‘s fuel requirements.


CTL CAN SOLVE FOREIGN OIL DEPENDENCE IN THE LONG TERM—NO RESERVE LIMIT
Breen in 80
Lieutenant Colonel Joseph A. Breen. December 1980. M.A., State University of New York. ―Energy, America, and the Military: Can we get there from here?‖
http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/aureview/1980/nov-dec/breen.html#breen
Coal dominated U.S. energy production until World War II and today constitutes a majority of U. S. fossil fuel reserves. Commercial
processes of varying efficiency now exist that convert coal to liquid or gaseous forms. Coal
production compared to other fuels has been disproportionately slow in increasing, and these rises represent no real increase in the coal share of the energy market.20 Increasing this

                                                                                     there are no
share may be limited by various constraints: environmental, direct economic (demand, capital investment, transportation), and even technical; however,

reserve constraints. Known coal reserves are more than adequate for any likely degree of
exploitation into the next century.21 A conscious political decision to substitute coal for oil in many
sectors would seem to be a mandatory first step in the transition from oil. Federal incentives to

support that decision would accelerate the process and continue an established
precedent.22




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                          Status Quo Tech Solves Env. Impacts
STATUS QUO INCREASING REFO PROJECTS SOLVE PLAN POLLUTION AND EMISSIONS
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

Increases in coal and oil shale mining can be accomplished responsibly. Contrary to
common belief, existing mining laws are very stringent and strictly prohibit pollution. In
addition, remining of previously abandoned mined areas and mine reforestation programs
are having positive environmental results. We encourage mining regulatory authorities and mining companies to advance remining and
reforestation programs. Experimental reforestation projects have demonstrated that tree growth rates can be dramatically increased from normal rates experienced in nature by
preparing mined ground properly before planting. Young, fast growing trees capture greater volumes of CO2. The new soil preparation techniques provide greater moisture collection for

                         Expanding programs that incorporate accelerated tree growth
the trees, and reduce water runoff from mine sites.

into mine reclamation plans has great promise for reestablishing forests, increasing property
values of mined land, providing a dynamic new source of arbor fuel crops and wood
products resources, and capturing CO2. Reforestation is a natural form of CO2 capture and
storage.




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                         Diversified Plan Solves CO2 Emissions
LIQUIDS PRODUCTION NOT LIMITED TO CTL—COMBINED TYPES SOLVE C02 EMISSIONS
JAMES T. BARTIS. May 2007. Testimony presented before the Senate Energy and Natural Resources. ―Policy Issues for Coal-to- Liquid Development‖


An interesting feature of the F-T approach to liquid fuels production is that it is not limited to coal. For
example, large commercial F-T plants producing liquid fuels from natural gas are operating in \Malaysia, Qatar, and South Africa. Other options are to use

biomass or a combination of coal and biomass as the feedstock instead of straight coal . While
these options are not being used on a commercial scale, our assessment of approaches using biomass or a combination of coal and biomass is that they involve very limited, low-risk

                         these two approaches involving biomass offer liquid fuels
technology development. As I elaborate on below,

production and use that entail near-zero emissions of carbon dioxide.




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                                                New Tech Solves Pollution
NEW THERMAL EFFICIENCY PROGRAMS SOLVE DIRTY COAL ARGUMENTS
Ken K. Robinson, David E. Tatterson. Feb 26, 2007. President of Mega-Carbon Co. ―Fischer-Tropsch oil-from-coal promising as transport fuel.‖

Another important issue faced today is that of greenhouse emissions worldwide, notably CO2. Coal historically has been used to generate electric power, and in the US represents over

                                                             The US, like the rest of the world, has a coal problem: There is
half of all electric power generation. As stated in C&E News, ―

a lot of it and it is cheap, but it is dirty. Coal-fired power plants are responsible for 60% of US sulfur dioxide emissions, 33% of US mercury emissions, 25%
of nitrogen oxide emissions, and more than 33% of the nation‘s CO2 emissions.‖3 However, it doesn‘t have to be that way because

IGCC, shown in Fig. 3 for electric power generation, makes coal a very clean fuel with the side benefit of increasing
the thermal efficiency from about 33% for conventional coal firing to more than 40% for IGCC. DOE is
taking the lead in commercializing IGCC in its Future Gen Project slated for either Illinois or Texas, with two candidate plant sites in each state.




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                                                        No Habitat Damage
POST MINING RECLAMATION ACTIVITIES ARE UNDERTAKEN.
world coal institute 2006
(World coal institute "The Coal Resource: A Comprehensive Overview of Coal
"11/03/2006<http://www.worldcoal.org/assets_cm/files/PDF/coaluseandtheenvironment.pdf>)

Coal mining is only a temporary use of land, so it is vital that rehabilitation of land takes place once mining operations have ceased. In best
practice a detailed rehabilitation or reclamation plan is designed and approved for each coal

mine, covering the period from the start of operations until well after mining has finished.
Land reclamation is an integral part of modern mining operations around the world and the
cost of rehabilitating the land once mining has ceasedis factored into the mine's operating
costs. Mine reclamation activities are undertaken gradually – with the shaping and contouring of spoil piles, replacement of
topsoil, seeding with grasses and planting of trees taking place on the mined-out areas. Care is taken to relocate streams, wildlife, and

other valuable resources. Reclaimed land can have many uses, including agriculture,
forestry, wildlife habitation and recreation.

THE GOVERNMENT ENSURE ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION.
AMERICAN COAL FOUNDATION No Date.
("Strict Regulations Govern Coal Mining" no date given date accessed: june 27,2008 <http://www.ket.org/Trips/Coal/AGSMM/agsmmregs.html>)

                                                                                   coal producers are required to go
Because coal mining can have a number of significant impacts on the surrounding environment and miners,

through a complicated process for obtaining local, sate, and federal permits to mine. Coal
mining is one of the most extensively regulated industries in the United States. Before one shovel of earth can be turned,
or one ton of coal removed from the ground, a company must comply with literally hundreds of laws and

thousands of regulations. Meeting all the requirements is arduous and time-consuming, even for the most efficient and well-managed companies. As long as 10
years can elapse between the start of planning a mine and mining the first ton of coal. The process begins with a mining company providing detailed information about such activities as
how the coal will be mined, and the land reclaimed; the quality and quantity of surface and underground sources of water and how mining activities will affect them; and how the coal

                                  Surface mining operators also must consider the soil and
will be transported from the mine and how that will affect the area.

prevailing climatological conditions prior to mining, because the land has to be returned to
approximately the same physical contour, and to a state of productivity equal to or better
than the pre-mining condition. Wildlife habitats cannot be permanently disrupted, and
archeological resources must be protected. The principal federal surface mining law sets
forth 25 reclamation requirements for operators to meet. These include public hearings and procedures for obtaining permits. To
make certain that lands being mined will be restored, the law requires companies to post bonds, as high as $10,000 per acre, to cover reclamation.


LAND RECLAMATION PROJECTS SOLVE YOUR POLLUTION AND HABITAT IMPACTS.
AMERICAN COAL FOUNDATION no date.
("Strict Regulations Govern Coal Mining" no date given date accessed: june 27,2008 <http://www.ket.org/Trips/Coal/AGSMM/agsmmregs.html>)
Their operators simply stopped mining because the coal seam was exhausted, they were bankrupt, or for some other reason they no longer could or would mine coal. To restore these

"orphan lands," and eliminate unsightly and unsafe conditions,  today's coal producers pay a special tax on every ton of
coal they produce. The money, which goes into the federal Abandoned Mine Lands Fund,
provides financing for reclamation projects initiated by state agencies. Coal mining
companies work hard to maintain the environment. The law requires it, but they also
understand that the right to remove coal carries with it a great responsibility . Based on Office of Surface
Mining data, it is estimated that mined lands totaling an area greater than the size of the state of Delaware have been reclaimed since 1977. Over time, as today's coal

producers pay for the shortsightedness of their predecessors with their tax contributions to
the Abandoned Mine Lands Fund, the percentage of lands reclaimed will rise.




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CARBON SEQUESTRATION BOOSTS WATER QUALITY AND WILDLIFE HABITAT
Robert J. Luxmoore. October 25, 2001. SSSA President. https://www.soils.org/pdf/pos_paper_carb_seq.pdf.

In general there is a favorable interplay between carbon sequestration and various

recommended land management practices related to soil fertility (e.g., adding mineral fertilizers, manures, sludges and
biosolids), tillage, grazing, and forestry. Recommended agronomic, grazing land and forestry practices also enhance land sustainability, wildlife habitat and water quality. In most

locations, especially environmentally sensitive settings, these practices also result in decreased water and wind
erosion that degrade soil carbon stocks. The same positive relationship that exists between
carbon sequestration and recommended land management can, in some settings, improve
water quality and aid wildlife habitat restoration.




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                                                     No Climate Impact
STATUS QUO TECHNOLOGY SOLVE CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
world coal institute 2006
(World coal institute "The Coal Resource: A Comprehensive Overview of Coal
"11/03/2006<http://www.worldcoal.org/assets_cm/files/PDF/coaluseandtheenvironment.pdf>)

The environmental impact of our energy consumption is a concern for us all. Limiting the negative
effects of coal production and use is a priority for the coal industry and one which has been
the focus of research, development and investment. Much has been achieved –
technologies have been developed and are widely used to limit particulate emissions, NOx
and SOx and trace elements. Improvements in the efficiency of coal combustion have
already achieved significant reductions in carbon dioxide emissions. The wider use of technologies to improve the
environmental performance of coal will be essential, particularly in developing countries where coal use is set to markedly increase. Technological innovation

and advancement, such as carbon capture and storage, offers many future prospects for
tackling CO2 emissions from coal use in the future.




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                                            Plan Solves Your Econ DA
PLAN SOLVES ALL ECONOMY DISAD INTERNALS
Southern States Energy Board in 6
The American Energy Security Study, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/leg_brief.html.

Embarking on a national mission to achieve energy security and move toward liquid fuels independence will not only
reduce risk and lower oil prices and oil price volatility, it will also facilitate an industrial boom,
create millions of jobs, foster new technology, enhance economic growth, help to eliminate
the trade and budget deficits, insure affordable energy for our citizens and strategic fuels for
our military, and establish a reliable domestic energy base on which to rebuild our domestic
industries to be globally competitive.

CASE TURNS ALL YOUR ECONOMIC INDICATORS LINKS
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

                    embarking on a national mission to achieve energy security and move
This study demonstrates that

toward liquid fuels independence will not only reduce risk and lower oil prices and oil price
volatility, it will also facilitate an industrial boom, create millions of jobs, foster new
technology, enhance economic growth, help to eliminate the trade and budget deficits,
insure affordable energy for citizens and strategic fuels for the military, and establish a
reliable domestic energy base upon which to rebuild U.S. industries to be globally
competitive.




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                                                                Plan Key to Jobs
PLAN BOOSTS US EMPLOYMENT
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

These requirements will create an especially robust labor market and greatly enhanced
employment opportunities in many industries and in professional and skilled occupations such as
chemical, mechanical, electronics, petroleum, and industrial engineers; electricians; sheet metal workers; geoscientists; computer software engineers; skilled refinery personnel; tool and
die makers; computer controlled machine tool operators; industrial machinery mechanics; electricians; oil and gas field technicians, machinists, engineering managers, electronics

                                              millions of jobs will be created at all skill levels for
technicians, carpenters; welders; and others. However, it also is important to note that

occupations such as laborers, farm workers, truck drivers, security guards, managers and
administrators, secretaries, clerks, service workers, and so forth. Workers at all levels will
greatly benefit – see Figure EX-7.
PLAN MASSIVELY BOOSTS JOBS
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

                           large numbers of jobs will be generated for various professional, technical,
As noted, disproportionately

and skilled occupations concentrated in fields related to the construction, energy, and industrial sectors, reflecting the requirements of the AES initiatives and their
supporting technologies and industries. Nevertheless, the largest number of jobs will be generated in occupations such

as secretaries, security guards, laborers, truck drivers, etc. This is illustrated by examining the
relative impact of jobs in different occupations – the jobs created relative to the total
number of jobs in that occupation. This is necessary because the number of persons employed in different occupations differs greatly. For example, in
2004, there were employed in the U.S.:




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                                                          Subsidies Not Key
DON’T NEED SUBSIDIES—HIGH PRICES ALTERNATIVE FUELS COMPETITIVE
Southern States Energy Board in 6
The American Energy Security Study, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/leg_brief.html.

America is at a crossroads. We can either choose to produce our own transportation fuels
utilizing our vast resources, securing our own destiny. Or we can continue to rely on foreign oil from
unstable sources. No subsidies are necessary at today‘s oil prices, only protection from
predatory imports. The choice is clear.




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                                                DoD Want Alt Liquid Fuels
PENTAGON WANTS ALTERNATIVE FUELS TO SHORE UP SUPPLY LINES
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

Military leadership recognizes that national security is seriously threatened by dependence
on imported oil. That is why the Department of Defense is so actively championing the rapid
development of domestic sources of reliable, cost-competitive, highperformance, low
emissions alternative fuels for military vehicles, aircraft, and ships.

THE AIR FORCE HAS AGREED TO USE COAL TO LIQUID
Malloy (staff writer for Pittsburgh Post Gazette) 2008 June 28. (Daniel, Pittsburgh Post Gazette, Sooner edition, Lexis Nexis)
The Air Force, which consumes about half of all the fuel used by the federal government,
says it will use liquid coal in its fleet, a vote of confidence that would be a major boon to the
fledgling industry

CTL WORKS, AND THE AIRFORCE WANTS IT
DREAZEN ( Staff writer for the Wall Street Journal) May 21, 2008 (Yochi J, The Wall Street Journal, lexis Nexis
http://www.lexisnexis.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T4019535984&format=GNBFI&sort=BOOLEAN&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T40195359
87&cisb=22_T4019535986&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=304478&docNo=18)

                                                                                                              The basic technology for
Despite its high-tech connotations, synthetic fuel often dubbed "synfuel" for short within the industry has been around for decades.

transforming coal or natural gas into synthetic fuel was invented by a pair of German
researchers, Franz Fischer and Hans Tropsch, in the 1920s. The Nazis later used the Fischer-Tropsch process to mass-produce synthetic diesel fuel. During
the apartheid-era embargo against South Africa, scientists there tweaked the technology so
it could also produce synthetic jet fuel . The Fischer-Tropsch process transforms a synthetic gas derived
from coal or other material into liquid gas. The resulting synthetic fuel is different from biofuel, commonly produced from corn, sugar or other
plants. Continental Airlines Inc. has announced plans for an experimental flight using biofuel this spring, which would be the first by a U.S. carrier; Virgin Atlantic also has done some
testing. The Wright-Patterson team oversaw experiments on a wide array of synthetic fuels, but quickly settled on a 50-50 blend of conventional jet fuel known as JP-8 and artificial fuel
made using the Fischer-Tropsch process. That mixture is used in South Africa, where Johannesburg-based Sasol Ltd. is one of the world's biggest synthetic-fuel producers. Air Force officials

                                    In June 2006, the Air Force agreed to buy 100,000 gallons of artificial fuel
decided it was the safest combination.

from U.S.-based Syntroleum to mix with petroleum for testing. The next month, military engineers
bolted an engine from a B-52 bomber to a table at Tinker Air Force base in Oklahoma and
ran it for 50 consecutive hours to see how it would perform on the synthetic blend. Engineers
detected no differences from conventional fuel. The Air Force began conducting test flights.
In September 2006, a B-52 took off from Edwards Air Force Base in California with two of its eight engines burning the synthetic-fuel blend, the first time a military aircraft
had flown on artificial fuel. The plane's performance was the same as if it had flown on conventional fuel ,
and the Air Force decided to push ahead. As the Air Force's experimentation increased, so did the involvement of the private sector. Military and civilian aircraft share many parts and
are often built by the same companies. The military's Boeing C-17 cargo jet, for instance, uses the same Pratt & Whitney engine as a Boeing 757 passenger plane. Pentagon officials are
sharing their research into synthetic fuels with such firms to help civilian companies certify their equipment on the synthetic-fuel blend.




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                              Plan Solves Short Term Production
PLAN SOLVES FOREIGN OIL DEPENDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM BY BOOSTING DOMESTIC
PRODUCTION WITH CO2 FLOODING—THESE TECHNIQUES ALSO SOLVE ATMOSPHERIC
CONTAMINATION
Southern States Energy Board in 6
The American Energy Security Study, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/leg_brief.html.

Commercial enhanced oil recovery successes using CO2 flooding suggest that American oil
and gas production can be dramatically increased by this method. Miscible CO2 flooding can
revitalize certain mature oil fields. In addition, CO2 injection into coal and oil shale deposits is
an emerging technology that can increase natural gas production from these sources. At
present, limited availability of CO2 supplies severely constrains this production enhancing technique.
However, coal, oil shale, and biomass-to-liquids plants will produce and capture large quantities

of CO2, which can be sold to oil and gas producers for such productive uses. Thus, the CO2
generated by these plants can be put to a positive use, while at the same time permanently
and safely sequestering the gas in reservoirs deep beneath the earth‘s surface . In addition, the
petroleum residuals generated by oil and gas producers can be upgraded to liquid fuels in
the new carbon-to-liquids plants.




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                                                     EOR Competitive Now
HIGH PRICES MAKES EOR VIABLE NOW—INDUSTRY IS READY IMMEDIATELY
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

With more than three decades of experience with the process, companies are becoming more
comfortable with using CO2-EOR. Figure III-12 shows the average oil production per project and
reveals that the project size in terms of production has remained stable for the past 14 years ,
averaging just under 3,000 bbls/day per project. Figure III-13 shows the growth in the number of CO2 projects over the last 20 years, and Figure III-14 shows the growth in CO2-enhanced

                         the growth in oil production over that time has been directly
oil production over the same time period. Clearly,

related to the number of projects being activated. If the price of oil remains high, there
should be considerable incentive for companies to initiate new EOR projects, even though
past experience has made investors leery of commitments to major projects .

DEMAND FOR EOR INCREASING—ONLY NEEDS $40 PER BARREL PRICE TO BE PROFITABLE
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

Assuming current shortages of inexpensive CO2, and a $40/bbl oil price, the expectations for
CO2-EOR are likely to follow or exceed the historical growth pattern, possibly accelerating
somewhat as activity picks up in non-traditional areas outside the Permian Basin. Figure III-16 shows the
predicted production for CO2-EOR at $40/bbl with CO2 supply constraints.




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                                                                 Plan Key to EOR
INCREASING INDUSTRIAL CO2 KEY TO US EOR PRODUCTIONS
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

CO2 availability is currently limited in the U.S. outside of the present CO2- Enhanced Oil
Recovery producing areas (MS, CO-NM-TX, WY-UT, ND), and this causes very high CO2 prices during
summer high-demand periods. Commercial CO2 suppliers often are unable to meet the
summertime demand. Major sources of natural CO2 that supply EOR projects are found mostly from underground sources in Colorado, New Mexico, Wyoming, and
Mississippi. The capturing of CO2 from manufacturing processes for EOR is scattered, with major sources in North Dakota (coal gasification) and Oklahoma (fertilizer plants). Some CO2, a

                                     Increasing the production of useable industrially
by-product of the fermentation process, is also captured at ethanol plants.

produced CO2 addresses those consumption demands. Present reserves of natural CO2 are
large, but are not adequate to support an all-out effort to produce the technically
recoverable oil resources that are amenable to recovery by CO2 EOR. In the U.S. southern region (Gulf Coast and
nearby areas), the target for EOR is 6 to 20 billion barrels of oil, but the huge CO2 EOR resource requirements present a significant challenge.


LACK OF EASILY RECOVERABLE C02 CRUSHING U.S. EOR EFFORTS
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

           limited, existing CO2 sources and pipelines currently delivering this strategic EOR
Figure III-11 shows the

gas to only several regions of U.S. oil fields. Even in these regions, low cost CO2 is in short supply. Note that
many of the basins showing large EOR potential (Table III-7) have no existing supplies of CO2.

CTL IS CRITICAL TO DEVELOPMENT OF EOR RESOURCES: C02
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

There are currently limited sources of low cost CO2 and delivery infrastructure (pipelines) to supply CO2 to the
many oil fields in the U.S. with EOR potential. Coal-toliquids and other alternative liquid transportation fuels production facilities
featured in the current study are believed to be a key to unlocking the huge potential of U.S. EOR

resources. These plants will be distributed across the U.S., with many sited proximate to EOR-
suited oil fields. CO2 will be a residual product of alternative liquid fuel plants, and capturing
the gas for sale will not only create economic value but will also demonstrate environmental
stewardship. Thus, it is anticipated that these new liquid fuels manufacturing plants will be a
source of low cost CO2 for EOR operations.

LEAD TIMES MEAN CTL CO2 EFFORTS MUST BEGIN ASAP—BOOSTS US PRODUCTON FOR 50
YEARS
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

Development of alternative CO2 resources needs to be initiated as soon as possible
because of the lead time required to develop the CO2-source coal-to-liquids and other
alternative fuel plants and CO2 transport facilities. Figure III-18 provides one estimate of the potential for CO2-EOR under an accelerated schedule along with the
amount of CO2 required to achieve it. Under this scenario, there would be approximately 23 billion bbls of oil

recovered over the next 50 years requiring about 13 gigatons of CO2. This projection is
probably a reasonable expectation under the assumptions that low cost CO2 supplies will be
available and future oil prices remain high.



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                                          EOR Key to US Oil Output
EOR TECHNIQUES BOOST US OIL OUTPUT
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

Enhanced oil recovery (   EOR) technology can significantly increase production from existing U.S. oil
reservoirs. Tertiary EOR enhanced recovery methods, including CO2 EOR, have been
practiced in the U.S. since the 1950s. The EOR process having the largest potential is miscible
flooding, wherein carbon dioxide (CO2) is injected into an oil reservoir , providing additional pressure and solvency
to move residual oil left over from primary and secondary recovery. U.S. oil resources are very large: Discovered and

documented resources amount to 582 billion bbls, 482 billion of light oil and about 100 billion
of heavy oil. Approximately 208 billion bbls have been developed, leaving 374 billion bbls still
in place, and of these, 80+ billion bbls are estimated to be technically recoverable via EOR.

US STILL HAS VAST UNUSED OIL RESOURCES THAT EOR CAN COLLECT
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

                       U.S. oil resources are very large. The problem is in recovering them. Discovered
As shown in Table III-6,

and documented resources amount to 582 billion bbls, 482 billion of light oil and about 100 billion of heavy oil. Approximately 208
billion bbls have been developed, leaving 374 billion bbls still in place. Of these 374 billion bbls of oil-in-place, at least 100 billion

bbls are estimated to be producible via EOR (see Table III-6 note). These numbers do not include
projected reserves growth (RG), undiscovered resources (UR), residual oil zone resources (ROZ), or oil
sands.

FULL SCALE EOR WOULD MASSIVELY BOOST U.S. OIL PRODUCTION
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

CO2-EOR can provide large additional oil production if CO2 can be made available near
the locations of opportunity, in large volumes, at reasonable cost. If CO2 can be made
available from the manufacture of hydrocarbon liquids from alternative resources such as
coal or biomass, then it will be possible to reach many if not most targeted U.S. oil resources,
and 2. 0 million bbls/day and more could become a reality.




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CO2-EOR WOULD MASSIVELY BOOSTS US OIL OUTPUT
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

The most promising technology for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) involves the injection of CO2
into the oil reservoir, and the potential for CO2-EOR in the U.S. is increasing continuously with
advances in technology. Reservoir modeling, especially for CO2-EOR, has become extremely
sophisticated with the increased capabilities of modern computers and with the development of advanced computer codes. The synergism of the
advanced technologies allow a far better understanding and control of oil reservoirs,
reservoir fluids, and the physics and chemistry of enhanced recovery. CO2-EOR is the
―universal‖ enhanced recovery system, applicable to most reservoirs except the very shallow
and the reservoirs with heavier oils, for which thermal technologies are more applicable. DOE
estimates that as much as 89 billion bbls of oil could be produced by applying modern and
forthcoming advanced CO2-EOR technologies. With more than three decades of
experience with the process, companies are becoming more comfortable using CO2-EOR.1




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                                                               AT: EOR Bad
YOUR EOR INDICTS DON’T LINK—NEW C02 EOR TECHNIQUES SUBSTANTIALLY OUTSTRIP OLD
TECHNOLOGIES
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

The potential for enhanced oil recovery in the U.S. is increasing continuously with advances
in technology. Reservoir modeling, especially for CO2-EOR, has become extremely
sophisticated with the increased capabilities of modern computers and with the development of advanced computer codes that are better capable of mimicking the
physics and chemistry of enhanced oil recovery. Improved drilling and completion techniques are also contributing,

providing better drilling efficiency and improved well control. New sensing devices and
communication systems provide capability for real time analysis of field operations, including
underground flow tracking and simulation, thus enhancing the ability to make intelligent
decisions in a timely manner. The synergism of the advanced technologies allow a far better
understanding and control of oil reservoirs, reservoir fluids, and the physics and chemistry of
enhanced recovery.




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                                        Sequestering Solves Emissions
PERMIAN BASIN AND DAKOTA PROVES EOR/SEQUESTERING IMPROVES PRODUCTION AND
SOLVES EMISSIONS
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

In addition to the Permian Basin, there are other CO2-EOR projects. Of particular interest is
the Dakota Gasification Company lignite gasification plant in Beulah, North Dakota. Originally built during the 1970s energy crisis to produce substitute
NG from lignite reserves, it uses Lurgi gasification technology, the same technology utilized by SASOL in South Africa to produce zero sulfur diesel, naphtha and chemicals. The Great
Plains Synfuels Plant has the distinction of being the world‘s first large-scale coal gasification project to substitute NG and the first where CO2 from coal gasification is removed and utilized
specifically for a CO2-EOR flood. The plant began operating in 1984 and today produces more than 54 billion standard cubic feet of NG annually. Coal consumption exceeds 6 million
tons each year, and a number of other products are also produced including ammonia fertilizers, phenol and naphtha. A portion of the CO2 produced by this plant (95 mmscfd) is

                                                                                                                        Injection
compressed and sent through a 204-mile pipeline through North Dakota to the Weyburn oil field operated by EnCana Corporation in Saskatchewan, Canada.

began in September 2000, and the field recently passed a milestone of injecting 5 million
tons of CO2 while doubling the field‘s production rate to 20,000 bbl/d. The CO2 from the
Dakota plant had been vented for many years. Thus, a waste product became a source of
income for the project, and a source of high-purity CO2 for extended field life (20 years), oil
production and revenue from the field. EnCana plans to produce an additional 130 million barrels of oil and sequester as much as 30 million tons of
CO2.


CARBON SEQUESTRATION SOLVES YOUR EMISSIONS ARGUMENTS
JAMES T. BARTIS. May 2007. Testimony presented before the Senate Energy and Natural Resources. ―Policy Issues for Coal-to- Liquid Development‖

By carbon capture and sequestration, I refer to technical approaches being developed in the United States, primarily through funding from the U.S.

Department of Energy, and abroad that are designed to capture carbon dioxide produced in coal- fired power

plants and sequester that carbon dioxide in various types of geological formations, such as deep saline
aquifers. This same approach can be used to capture and sequester carbon dioxide emissions

from F-T coal-to-liquids plants and from F-T plants operating on biomass or a combination of coal and biomass. When applied to F-T
coal-to-liquids plants, carbon capture and sequestration should cause ―mine-to-wheels‖ greenhouse
gas emissions to drop to levels comparable to the ―well-to-wheels‖ emissions associated with conventional
petroleum-derived motor fuels. Moreover, any incentive adequate to promote carbon
capture at coal-fired power plants should be equally, if not more, effective in promoting
carbon capture at F-T plants producing liquid fuels.

CTL PLANTS CAPTURE THE MAJORITY OF CO2 EMISSIONS
JAMES T. BARTIS. May 2007. Testimony presented before the Senate Energy and Natural Resources. ―Policy Issues for Coal-to- Liquid Development‖


For first-of-a-kind CTL plants built in the United States, 80 percent capture of all plant CO2 emissions
is an achievable standard. This level of reduction should result in lifecycle emissions that are
between 10 and 20 percent higher than motor fuels produced from conventional petroleum .
This level of capture is consistent with the two lowest risk approaches for managing carbon in initial coal-based commercial plants, namely, co-firing of coal and biomass and the use of
carbon dioxide for enhanced oil recovery. This emission factor is also appropriate for CTL plants that would capture carbon dioxide for use in a long-term demonstration of geologic
sequestration.




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                     AT: Not Enough Space for Sequestering
NO RISK OF OVERFLOODING DEMAND FOR C02—DEMAND WILL INCREASE OVER TIME
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

                                                                                                       Assuming the U.S.
Figure III-19 shows a projection of CO2-EOR production through 2030 assuming essentially unlimited CO2 availability and fully favorable economics.

decides to launch a concerted effort to achieve energy security and independence, the
CO2-EOR growth shown in Figure III-20 would be possible. The figure depicts about 10 to 11 percent
annual growth, which would require coordinated planning and development of CO2-EOR
projects and strategically-located liquid fuels & gasification plants for supplying the necessary CO2.




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                                     Status Quo is Carbon Capture
THREAT OF FUTURE REGULATIONS ENSURES CTL FACILITIES WILL BE BUILT WITH CARBON CAPTURE
AND SEQUESTER CAPABILITIES
Kriz 7
Margaret. Advocates say that liquefied coal could break America's addiction to foreign oil; critics warn that it could create twice as much greenhouse gas as petroleum. THE NATIONAL
JOURNAL January 6, 2007

             the military recognizes that coal-to-liquids plants would have to sequester the
Bollinger said

greenhouse-gas emissions created during the fuel's production. "While there are no carbon dioxide regulations at this
time, it's in our interest to see that any new facilities built domestically include carbon capture

and sequestration," he said. "We wouldn't want an industry to start without appropriate
carbon capture and sequestration, and then have new [global-warming] regulations come
into play in three or four years and stifle the ability of these plants to produce."




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                                                         Agriculture Add-On
CARBON SEQUESTRATION FROM CTL SOLVES AGRICULTURE PRODUCITON
Robert J. Luxmoore. October 25, 2001. SSSA President. https://www.soils.org/pdf/pos_paper_carb_seq.pdf.

Increased long term (20-50 year) sequestration of carbon in soils, plants and plant products will benefit the

environment and agriculture. Crop, grazing, and forestlands can be managed for both
economic productivity and carbon sequestration. In many settings this dual management approach can be achieved by applying
currently recognized best management practices such as conservation tillage, efficient nutrient management, erosion control, use of cover crops and restoration of degraded soils. In

addition, conversion of marginal arable land to forest or grassland can rapidly increase soil carbon sequestration. Research is needed that better quantifies   carbon
sequestration obtained by these practices; this research should culminate in a scientifically defensible soil carbon sequestration accounting system that also would be
suitable to the business sector, should soil carbon become a marketable commodity. Implementation of these practices will integrate a wide range of

disciplines in the basic, agricultural, silvicultural, and environmental sciences as well as in the
social, economic and political sciences. SSSA advocates a global increase in soil organic
matter as a timely benefit to global well being by reducing the rate of increase in
atmospheric CO2 and increasing the productivity of soil, particularly in many areas with
degraded soils.
HIGHER FOOD PRICES KILL BILLIONS
Tampa Tribune 96 (January 20, LN)
"Even if they are merely blips, higher international prices can hurt poor countries that import
a significant portion of their food," he said. "Rising prices can also quickly put food out of reach
of the 1.1 billion people in the developing world who live on a dollar a day or less ." He also said
many people in low-income countries already spend more than half of their income on food.




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                                                          Ag Extensions
SEQUESTRATION INCREASES SOIL YIELDS
Nichola D. Minott. May 2004. Master of Arts in Law and Diplomacy Thesis. ―CARBON SEQUESTRATION AND ITS POTENTIAL AS A MARKET MECHANISM
TOOL FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT‖
Soil conservation practices associated with sequestration projects such as forest belts not
only reduce soil erosion but also increase the organic matter content of soils which increases
yield output. Additional conservation strategies include converting marginal lands to compatible land-use systems,
restoring degraded soils, and adopting best management practices such as sustainable forestry practices; all of
which are classified as carbon sequestration and conservation projects.


MORE CO2 FOR SEQUESTRATION BOOSTS AGRICULTURE
Robert J. Luxmoore. October 25, 2001. SSSA President. https://www.soils.org/pdf/pos_paper_carb_seq.pdf.


The implementation of effective land management practices , especially through stewardship activities such as the
Conservation Reserve Program, Wetland Reserve Program, Forestry Incentive Program and conservation tillage, lead to both increased above

ground carbon sequestration and to increased SOC [soil organic carbon]. Soils gaining SOC are also
generally gaining in other attributes that enhance plant productivity and environmental quality. Increases in SOC

generally improve soil structure, increase soil porosity and water holding capacity, as well as
improve biological health for a myriad of life forms in soil.




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                                          Sequestering Solves Climate
SEQUESTRATION CAN SUCCEED IN DEFERRING CLIMATE DAMAGES AND LEADS TO MORE
ALTERNATIVE ENERGIES
Franck Lecocq & Kenneth Chomitz. July 2001. World Bank, Development Economic Research Group, Infrastructure and Environment. ―Optimal Use
of Carbon Sequestration in a Global Climate Change Strategy: Is there a Wooden Bridge to a Clean Energy Future?‖
Does temporary sequestration of CO2 have a place in a comprehensive policy for mitigating climate change? Three         arguments have been advanced
in favor of sequestration. First, some proportion of ―temporary‖ sequestration may prove permanent (Chomitz, 2000). This applies both for plantations,
which may become financially sustainable after initial barriers such as establishment costs have

been overcome, and for deforestation prevention projects in areas where pressure on forest turns out to be only temporary1. Second, temporary
sequestration may succeed in deferring climatic damages, and this deferral is argued to be a
benefit. Third, some argue that temporary sequestration ―buys time‖ for technical change: in other
words, it bridges from a period when energy abatement is expensive to a future era when
alternative energy sources are cheap (Schwarze and Niles, 2000, Noble and Scholes, 2001). The present paper aims at rigorously assessing these
arguments. Temporary sequestration delays emissions with regard to the baseline. The key issue is therefore to know whether energy abatement
and permanent sequestration can be reorganized in such a way that the total costs of the climate policy – damages plus abatement costs – diminish enough to offset the costs of the
temporary sequestration project. To answer this question, we build a long term climate policy optimization model in which the planner has both the possibility to abate fossil-fuel emissions
and to sequester carbon, either temporarily or permanently (section 2). In this model, we consider only deforestation prevention projects, which appear to be inexpensive and to offer
potentially important side benefits such as biodiversity conservation, watershed protection and improvement of rural livelihoods when alternatives to deforestation are offered (Chomitz,

                                                               sequestration and emissions
2000). In section 3, we first apply the model to the class of permanent deforestation prevention projects. We demonstrate that

reduction from fossil fuel combustion should then be considered similarly –marginal costs should be equated –
provided spatial externalities are negligible. In section 4, we turn to temporary deforestation prevention projects, and show these are not cost-effective in the short and medium run unless
marginal damages of climate change are high enough. We next combine both possibilities in a model where the planner has the choice to keep deforestation prevention running or to
terminate it at each point of time. Both analytically (section 5) and numerically (section 6), marginal damages at low concentration levels prove again critical for the optimal
sequestration patterns section. We demonstrate the results obtained for deforestation prevention can be generalized to plantations in section 7.


CTL AND CARBON SEQUESTERING ARE BOTH IMPERATIVE FOR CLIMATE CHANGE
Byron Dorgan. June 2008. Text From a Congressional Board.
http://www.c-spanarchives.org/congress/?q=node/77531&id=8582628


                    If we are going to be serious about climate change and global warming--and we should be,
There is a lot to do.

in my judgment--two things are necessary: One, we need to have kind of a Manhattan Project that in a

very short period of time is going to find ways to dramatically increase the use of renewables. Second,

we are going to dramatically accelerate our effort to determine how we can use coal and other
fossil fuels and still protect our environment by capturing and sequestering carbon or providing a beneficial
use of carbon. That is expensive, but we can get that done. That was the amendment I had, which would shift $20 billion to the front end of this to say: Let's do this in a serious manner.




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                                                  Sequestering Boosts Ag
SEQUESTERING OFFSETS EMISSIONS WHICH IMPROVES THE ENVIRONMENT
R. Umadevi & G. Thiyagarajan. March 2007. Department of Soil Science and Agricultural Chemistry. ―Science Tech Entrepreneur‖

This transfer or ―sequestering‖ of carbon helps off-set emissions from fossil fuel combustion and other

carbon-emitting activities while enhancing soil quality and long-term agronomic productivity.
Soil carbon sequestration can be accomplished by management systems that add high amounts of biomass to the soil, cause minimal soil

disturbance, conserve soil and water, improve soil structure, and enhance soil fauna activity .
Increased long term (20-50 year) sequestration of carbon in soils, plants and plant products will benefit the

environment and agriculture. Land use- changes and forest/ soil degradation affect emissions of green house gases (GHGs) rather strongly, thereby causing
global warming. These processes have led to a deep concern among the policy makers, scientists and public alike. Vegetation and soils are widely recognized as carbon storage sinks.
The global biosphere absorbs roughly 2 billion tonnes of carbon annually, an amount equal to roughly one third of all global carbon emissions from human activity. Significant amounts of
this carbon remains stored in the roots of certain plants and in the soil. In fact, the inventory of carbon stored in the global ecosystem equals roughly 1,000 years worth of annual
absorption, or 2 trillion tons of carbon.




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                                Sequestering Boosts Economy
SEQUESTERING REVIVES AN ENTIRE INDUSTRY OF THE GLOBAL MARKET
Nichola D. Minott. May 2004. Master of Arts in Law and Diplomacy Thesis. ―CARBON SEQUESTRATION AND ITS POTENTIAL AS A MARKET MECHANISM
TOOL FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT‖
Another indirect impact of sequestration projects is the potential revenue derived from
ecotourism due to the increased preservation of natural forest reserves. Non-Annex 1 nations can
create and promote a ―green image‖ of the developing world which would increase the
income to these nations and likewise provide additional funding for sequestration projects .
Developed countries can promote ecotourism and vacation opportunities in the developing world which will further increase their incomes. According to the

World Tourism Organization, the industry accounts for approximately 8% of global
employment.78 Nature-based encompasses roughly 40% to 60% of the international tourist expenditures and shows signs of
increasing at 10% to 30% annually.79 The premise behind ecotourism is that visitors are willing to pay to see wildlife and/or communities in
their traditional environments, thereby creating an incentive to preserve these systems.80 Within the sustainable development framework,
ecotourism can be an effective market tool to promote preservation of natural habitats
which further justifies the need for forest preservation. The potential earning power of the
tourist industry can support conservation and sustainable management policies through this
market-driven approach.81 The premise is that when local communities earn a significant income from nature-based tourism
and sustainable use they are most likely to shift from unsustainable practices as was demonstrated in the Noelle Kempff Mercardo Climate
Action model. Most importantly this new initiative, with its direct and indirect benefits, provides an alternative approach in addition to
sequestration projects to saving endangered ecosystems.82




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                               Plan Costs Less Than Status Quo
PLAN HAS LESS ECONOMIC IMPACT THAN STATUS QUO
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

There is little doubt that there will be transition costs involved in pursuing U.S. energy security
and independence, as there are in every major economic change. However the increasing
U.S. reliance on foreign sources of energy will be incalculably more expensive than any
plausible adaptation, and the transition costs involved are more properly viewed as
necessary investments in the nation‘s energy future.2 Further, the difficulties involved with developing meaningful energy
alternatives are exaggerated.




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                                                         Free Markets Fail
FREE MARKETS FAIL—ALL SUCCESSFUL CRASH PROJECTS HAVE HAD USFG ASSISTANCE
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

The current popularity of free trade and market-based economic ideology makes it easy to
minimize the degree to which key economic and technological innovations and
transformations have historically been supported by government. While it is the robber barons who are celebrated,
the railroads of the 19th century were built with massive government assistance in the form of
loans, land grants, and other subsidies. In the 1950s, the U.S. did not expect the private sector
to build a highway system by itself. Nuclear energy, electronics, commercial aviation, the
Internet, space technology, medical research, computers, and biotechnology have all
benefited greatly from massive government support.

FREE MARKETS WILL FAILS—GOVERNMENT ACTION CRITICAL TO SUSTAIN ALTERNATIVE LIQUID
FUELS AND PRESERVE U.S. MILITARY SUPERIORITY AND ECONOMY
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

Indeed,it is the legitimate function of government to act where a need exists and the private
sector is either unwilling or unable to satisfy it. This is the case at present with the
development of substitute liquid fuel technologies. Science and technology in the U.S. has
been most successful when explicitly oriented toward a particular goal, as with the early
space program. The Soviet launch of the first Sputnik satellite was a profound shock, but the U.S. responded effectively with massively enlarged investment in scientific
education and research. The result is that the U.S. is currently in a dominant position in space, and its

satellite networks are a cornerstone of unprecedented military superiority. Where energy is
concerned, the ―Sputnik moment‖ has long since arrived. Freeing the American economy
from oil dependence arguably deserves at least the same priority the moon mission enjoyed 40 years
ago, since it concerns a vital national interest.



FREE MARKETS FAIL BECAUSE THEY FAIL TO CALCULATE NATIONAL INTERESTS COSTS AND
NATIONAL SECURITY RISKS
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

      there are theoretical objections to a totally market-based national energy policy. They rest on
Moreover,

            while market prices may incorporate all the relevant costs to the individual, they
the argument that

may fail to incorporate those that are relevant to the nation. There may be environmental
concerns that the market price does not capture. Market prices may also fail to incorporate
a premium to help counteract any unacceptable foreign influence on U.S. foreign and
domestic policies. For example, this reliance could affect national security in event of an armed
conflict. Considerations such as these explain the existence of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.




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GOVERNMENT INCENTIVES TO BUILD CTL PLANTS ARE KEY THE CTL INDUSTRY
Macpherson.[Associated Press Writer]. October 7, 2007. [James. ―Air Force likes synthetic fuel from coal – but can it be made‖. The Bismarck Tribune.
http://www.bismarcktribune.com/articles/2007/10/07/news/state/140507.txt]


The Air Force wants to power half its in-country flights with a synthetic fuel made from
domestic coal by 2016. It has yet to figure out how to get that fuel. No commercial plants
exist in this country to make it - and industry officials say the government has not offered
enough incentives to build a plant. The idea also faces environmental questions. "The
bottom line is if the government doesn't choose to support the creation of this industry
financially, then the government won't have enough domestically produced fuel in the time
frame they've set," said John Ward, a vice president with Headwaters Energy Services, a
division of Headwaters Inc., of South Jordan, Utah, which has been considering a North
Dakota plant to convert coal to jet fuel.
"The industry will still develop, but not fast enough for the military to meet its goals," Ward said.




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                    AT: Regulations/Negative Incentive CP
POSITIVE INCENTIVES KEY SPECIFICALLY TO CTL—PAST REGULATORY AND NEGATIVE
INCENTIVES HAVE LED TO INEFFICIENCY, DEPENDENCE, AND MORE AIR POLLUTION
Southern States Energy Board in 6
BUILDING A BRIDGE TO ENERGY INDEPENDENCEAND TO A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/AES%20Report.pdf, July.

There has thus far been little incentive for industry to replace older equipment with new
cleaner and more efficient process equipment, whether it be a refinery or power plant. In fact,
there has been a clear financial disincentive: It has been cheaper and more economic to
repair and refit old equipment than to replace it with new equipment. The laws legislating
clean air and water required such large reductions in pollutants that it is often much less
costly to repair and maintain old equipment and machinery than to replace it, thus
defeating much of the purpose of the laws. In essence, the ―stick without a carrot‖
approach has not worked that well . To get things moving toward stable and secure energy for
the country, we need to take a fresh look at the basic objectives of the environmental quality rules and regulations and add a meaningful carrot to

inspire. With a carrot (aka, real incentives ), an alternative fuels development effort can be a win-win-win

proposition. Older, less efficient plants can be significantly improved or replaced to obtain
cleaner air and better energy efficiency; new, clean and efficient polygen plants can be
built to provide the cleanest burning fuels possible while simultaneously capturing and storing
CO2; and additional CO2 EOR production could be brought on line – production that could
not be realized for many years, if ever, relying solely on natural sources of CO2.




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                                                     Politics: Plan is Bipart
PLAN IS BIPARTISAN
PR Newswire US April 19, 2007
Coal-to-gas and coal-to-liquids development continued to gain bipartisan support during
the quarter, with introduction of bills in both houses of Congress allowing long-term supply
contracts by the U.S. Department of Defense and tax incentives for use of synthetic fuels.
PLAN IS BIPARTISAN AND OBAMA GET ELECTION CREDIT
Kriz 7
Margaret. Advocates say that liquefied coal could break America's addiction to foreign oil; critics warn that it could create twice as much greenhouse gas as petroleum. THE NATIONAL
JOURNAL January 6, 2007

To ease Wall Street's concerns,coal-state lawmakers from both parties are proposing a variety of financial
incentives for companies willing to build coal-to-liquids facilities. Among the Democrats planning
to introduce such legislation are House Resources Committee Chairman Nick Rahall of West Virginia; Rep. Rick Boucher of Virginia, who is in
line to head the Energy and Air Quality Subcommittee of the Energy and Commerce Committee; and Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, who is eyeing a presidential bid.

Boucher, whose district includes Appalachian coal mines, said that chances are good that the Democratic-controlled

Congress will enact coal-to-liquids measures. "I see this legislation as a signature element of our agenda to achieve energy self-sufficiency in
the U.S.," he said




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                                                 Politics: Plan is Popular
PLAN IS POPULAR
Southern States Energy Board in 6
The American Energy Security Study, http://www.americanenergysecurity.org/leg_brief.html.

A recent Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy survey shows that reducing
dependence on foreign oil is a top priority for the American people (see survey result summary below). Clearly,
Americans will stand behind leadership with a bold plan to eliminate our dependence
imported oil. The American Energy Security Study will provide such a plan.




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                                                                        AT: Spending
CTL SOLVES YOUR SPENDING DA BY INCREASING REVENUES AT ALL LEVELS
JAMES T. BARTIS. May 2007. Testimony presented before the Senate Energy and Natural Resources. ―Policy Issues for Coal-to- Liquid Development‖

Beyond the strategic benefits for the nation associated with coal-to-liquids production are certain direct benefits. If coal-derived liquid fuels can be

produced at prices well below world oil prices, then the private firms that invest in coal-
derived liquid fuels development could garner economic profits above and beyond what is considered a normal return
on their investments. Through taxes on these profits and, in some cases, lease and royalty payments, we estimate that roughly

35 percent of these economic profits could go to federal, state, and local governments and,
thereby, broadly benefit the public. A second direct benefit derives from the broad regional dispersion of the U.S. coal resource base and the fact that
coal-to-liquids plants are able to produce finished motor fuel products that are ready for retail distribution. As such, developing a coal-to-liquids industry should increase the resiliency of

                           direct benefits of developing a coal-to-liquids production industry
the overall petroleum supply chain. The remaining

are local or regional, as opposed to national. In particular, coal-to-liquids industrial
development offers significant opportunities for economic development and would increase
employment in coal-rich states.




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                                                                     AT: CHINA CP
PERM: US AND CHINA SHALL DEVELOP ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOUCRES TOGETHER.
Klare 2008
(Micheal T. Klare, The Nation’s defense correspondent, is professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College. “The New Geopolitics of Energy” The Nation. New York: May
19, 2008. Vol. 286, Iss. 19; pg. 18)

And this leads to a final recommendation: rather than engage in militarized competition with China, we should
cooperate with Beijing in developing alternative energy sources and more efficient transportation systems. The arguments
in favor of collaboration are overwhelming: together, we are projected to consume 35 percent of the world's oil

supply by 2025, most of which will have to be imported from dysfunctional states . If, as is widely predicted,
global oil reserves have begun to shrink by then, both of our countries could be locked in a dangerous struggle for dwindling supplies in chronically unstable areas of the world. The costs,

                                                                            Far better to
in terms of rising military outlays and the inability to invest in more worthwhile social, economic and environmental endeavors, would be staggering.

forswear this sort of competition and work together on the development of advanced
petroleum alternatives, super-fuel-efficient vehicles and other energy innovations. Many
American and Chinese universities and corporations have already initiated joint ventures of
this sort, so it is not hard to envision a much grander regime of cooperation.




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                                                              AT: BackStopping
GOVERNMENT SUPPORT KEY TO PREVENT BACKSTOPPING
Malloy in 8
Coal may hold solution to gas prices Monday, June 23, 2008m By Daniel Malloy, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Later this year, a plant in China will begin churning out liquid fuel made from coal, a
technology that -- if all breaks right for the coal industry -- is headed to American shores. From the CTLtec Americas 2008, which begins
today at the Omni William Penn Hotel, Downtown, to Capitol Hill, coal-to-liquids is a popular topic, spurred by rising

gasoline prices and this country's ever-present need to wean itself from oil imports. Coal-to-
liquid proponents insist that the technology would strengthen national security and be a
cheaper alternative than current petroleum. Estimates vary widely, but Richard Bajura, director of the National Research Center for Coal and
Energy at West Virginia University, said liquid coal could be produced for $60 to $70 a barrel . Last week, oil prices approached $140 a

barrel. Still , coal-to-liquid plants would cost several billion dollars to build, and if the whims of OPEC were to drive down oil prices,

there would be little market for a more expensive domestic product. That's why the coal industry has taken its case to
Washington.




GOVERNMENT CONTRACT EXTENSION IS KEY. CTL IS KEY TO SECURITY AND ECONOMY
Write and Johnson 2006
Charlotte Wright, Regina Johnson (Managing Editors)―DoD's use of coal-derived fuels could be cornerstone of fledging industry‖ Platts Coal Outlook. June 26, 2006. Accessed on: June 27,
2008.
<http://www.lexisnexis.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview.do?docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T4054364985&format=GNBFI&sort=BOOLEAN&startDocNo=1&resultsUrlKey=29_T405436
4990&cisb=22_T4054364989&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=7932&docNo=9> nexis

"Government contracts to purchase the CTL fuel is critical to the industry ," John Ward, Headwaters vice president
of marketing and government affairs, told Platts at a press briefing June 22 on a bill to encourage CTL development. "Investors recognize the rewards of

a government contract. It gives a push to the investment community." This is the third time since the 1950s that the
country has tried to start a CTL industry, Ward said. "Each time, oil [producers] would flood the
market bringing the price of oil down, making CTL less attractive, and the government would
go right back to purchasing fuels from other countries. This time it's different. They see the
vital security and economic need for producing our own domestic resource." Current thinking is that the
breakeven point for CTL plants is $30 to $40/barrel, the National Mining Association wrote in a recent article. If oil is above that amount, the plants can be profitably operated.


LONG TERM CONTRACTS PROTECTS AGAINST BACKSTOPPING
Schalch 2007
Kathleen, July 30,2007, Administration Backs Making Liquid Fuel from Coal, NPR, http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=12314966, DOA 6/27/08

But making liquid coal is expensive. Each plant is likely to cost four times as much as an oil
refinery. And if oil prices fall, the market for liquid coal could dry up. Wright says Rentech
would like a government guarantee that it will at least break even.
"One thing that the federal government could do is put a price floor — $45 a barrel would do it," Wright says.

  industry is also hoping the government will sign a long-term contract to buy liquid coal jet
The

fuel for the Air Force. Many lawmakers from coal states are enthusiastic about the idea. Taxpayer
and environmental groups are not.




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                                                            AT: Mining Bad
MINING IS PLANNED CAREFULLY TO ENSURE ENVIRONMENTAL SAFETY.
world coal institute 2006
(World coal institute "The Coal Resource: A Comprehensive Overview of Coal
"11/03/2006<http://www.worldcoal.org/assets_cm/files/PDF/coaluseandtheenvironment.pdf>)

Coal mining – particularly surface mining – requires large areas of land to be temporarily disturbed. This
raises a number of environmental challenges, including soil erosion, dust, noise and water
pollution, and impacts on local biodiversity. Steps are taken in modern mining operations to
minimize these impacts. Good planning and environmental management minimises the
impact of mining on the environment and helps to preserve biodiversity.

AT: ACID RAIN RUNOFF.
world coal institute 2006
(World coal institute "The Coal Resource: A Comprehensive Overview of Coal
"11/03/2006<http://www.worldcoal.org/assets_cm/files/PDF/coaluseandtheenvironment.pdf>)

There are mine management methods that can minimise the problem of AMD, and effective
mine design can keep water away from acid generating materials and help prevent AMD
occurring. AMD can be treated actively or passively. Active treatment involves installing a
water treatment plant, where the AMD is first dosed with lime to neutralise the acid and then
passed through settling tanks to remove the sediment and particulate metals. Passive
treatment aims to develop a self-operating system that can treat the effluent without
constant human intervention.




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                                                                             AT: China
CHINA WILL NOT DO COAL TO LIQUID. U.S. IS KEY
Pasternack 7
Alex Pasternack (Environmentalist and Writer for AP) ―China to Cancel Project to Turn Coal into Liquid Fuel‖ Treehugger. June 12, 2007. Accessed on June 29, 2008.
<http://www.treehugger.com/files/2007/06/china_to_cancel.php>
 Still, no alternative energy is perfect, and China, like the rest of the world, needs some now. Just because the technology isn't there yet doesn't mean that it won't be with the right
investment now. China is of course a great place for renewable energy investment (VC investment is up 159 percent this year), what with the government's interest in boosting cleantech

                                  if that investment is going to happen, at least in the case of
innovation and the country's dire environmental situation. But

CTL, it might need to start in the United States. For its part, China (in the wake of its climate change action plan)
needs to continue thinking about how to improve energy conservation and efficiency, while
gathering domestic and international investment into other alternative energies --and (cough) hopefully
move away from coal altogether.


CHINA SCRAPPING LIQUID COAL PLANS: TAKES TOO MUCH ENERGY AND MONEY TO LIQUIFY
Pasternack 7
Alex Pasternack (Environmentalist and Writer for AP) ―China to Cancel Project to Turn Coal into Liquid Fuel‖ Treehugger. June 12, 2007. Accessed on June 29, 2008.
<http://www.treehugger.com/files/2007/06/china_to_cancel.php>

China's plans to put part of its abundant coal supply to use as methanol are likely being
scrapped, over concerns about the great costs and energy required to liquefy coal. That coal mining
is already quite dirty and that the coal-to-liquid (CTL) process produces large amounts of pollutants and greenhouse gases was not explicitly mentioned by the official who raised the

                            Liquefied coal projects consume a lot of energy
possibility of such a move. "                                                                                                 , though the successful industrialization of liquefied coal could
help reduce the country's dependence on petroleum," the anonymous official of the National Development and Reform Commission told Xinhua on Saturday. Many, including John at
Treehugger, heralded news of China's interest in "a major alternative fuel which does not exist in any other country in the world", that could produce 6 million tons of oil a year starting in
2008, not least because China is not oil rich, is growing increasingly dependent on petroleum, and, of course, has a hell of a lot of coal. Last year, as China's car population skyrocketed, it
imported about 16.3 million tons of oil, driving up the country's reliance on foreign sources 4 percent to 47 percent. And despite concerns about its toxicity, methanol also burns cleaner
than regular petroleum, and could prove cheaper too if gas prices go higher. Not to mention that it's not ethanol, which China has lately rejected for its threat to the nation's grain supply.
In short, methanol seemed like a good solution to China's alternative energy needs...

But the fact is, methanol is highly polluting without the right technology to produce it. A report in April
by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said liquid coal could lead to a 119 percent jump in greenhouse gases released per barrel of fuel if production and vehicle emissions were

                        the technology for clean liquefication, such as carbon sequestration, is far
taken into account. At this stage,

from ready, certainly for China. Nuclear power for refining the oil has been floated as one "clean" option.




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                                                                     Africa Add-On
A. FOREIGN OIL DEPENDENCE AND RESOURCE COMPETITION IS THE ROOT OF AFRICA
INSTABILITY
Klare 8
(Micheal T. Klare, The Nation’s defense correspondent, is professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College. “The New Geopolitics of Energy” The Nation. New York: May
19, 2008. Vol. 286, Iss. 19; pg. 18)

This risk is made all the greater because intensified production of oil , natural gas, uranium and minerals is
itself a source of instability, acting as a magnet for arms deliveries and outside intervention.
The nations involved are largely poor, so whoever controls the resources controls the one
sure source of abundant wealth. This is an invitation for the monopolization of power by greedy elites who use control over military and police to suppress
rivals. The result, more often than not, is a wealthy strata of crony capitalists kept in power by

brutal security forces and surrounded by disaffected and impoverished masses, often belonging to a different ethnic group--a recipe for unrest
and insurgency. This is the situation today in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria, in Darfur and
southern Sudan, in the uranium-producing areas of Niger, in Zimbabwe, in the Cabinda province of Angola (where most
of that country's oil lies) and in numerous other areas suffering from what's been called the
"resource curse."

B. AFRICAN INSTABILITY IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR GLOBAL NUCLEAR WAR
Deutsch 2k2
(The Rabid Tiger Newsletter, Vol. II, No. 9 November 18, 2002 Dr. Jeffrey Deutsch Founder, Rabid Tiger Project, BA in Government from Cornell University, in Ithaca, NY, and an MA and PhD
in Economics from George Mason University, in Fairfax, VA. http://www.rabidtigers.com/rtn/newsletterv2n9.html)

The Rabid Tiger Project believes that a nuclear war is most likely to start in Africa. Civil wars in the Congo (the country formerly known as Zaire),
Rwanda, Somalia and Sierra Leone, and domestic instability in Zimbabwe, Sudan and other countries, as well as occasional brushfire and other wars (thanks in

part to "national" borders that cut across tribal ones) turn into a really nasty stew. We've got all too many rabid tigers

and potential rabid tigers, who are willing to push the button rather than risk being seen as wishy-washy in the face of a
mortal threat and overthrown. Geopolitically speaking, Africa is open range. Very few countries in Africa are beholden to any

particular power. South Africa is a major exception in this respect - not to mention in that she also probably already has the Bomb. Thus, outside powers
can more easily find client states there than, say, in Europe where the political lines have long since been drawn, or Asia where many of the countries
(China, India, Japan) are powers unto themselves and don't need any "help," thank you. Thus, an African war can attract outside

involvement very quickly. Of course, a proxy war alone may not induce the Great Powers to fight each other. But an African nuclear strike can ignite a much
broader conflagration, if the other powers are interested in a fight. Certainly, such a strike would in the first place have been facilitated by outside help - financial, scientific, engineering,
etc. Africa is an ocean of troubled waters, and some people love to go fishing.




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                                                               Africa Cards
FOREIGN OIL DEPENDENCE WILL LEAD TO US-CHINA AFRICA WAR NOW
Klare 8
(Micheal T. Klare, The Nation’s defense correspondent, is professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College. “The New Geopolitics of Energy” The Nation. New York: May
19, 2008. Vol. 286, Iss. 19; pg. 18)

      the Defense Department, in its annual report Military Power of the People’s Republic of China, has equated competition
Since 2006

over resources with conflict over Taiwan as a potential spark for a US war with China . Preparation for a
clash over Taiwan remains ―an important driver‖ of China‘s military modernization, the 2008 edition noted, but ―analysis of China‘s military acquisitions and strategic thinking suggests

                                                                                                         the Chinese are
Beijing is also developing capabilities for use in other contingencies, such as conflict over resources.‖ The report went on to suggest that

planning to enhance their capacity for ―power projection‖ in areas that provide them with
critical raw materials, especially fossil fuels, and that such efforts would pose a significant
threat to America‘s security interests. The Pentagon is also requesting funds this year for the establishment of the Africa Command (Africom), the first
overseas joint command to be formed since 1983, when President Reagan created the Central Command (Centcom) to guard Persian Gulf oil. Supposedly, the new organization will
focus its efforts on humanitarian aid and the ―war on terror.‖ But in a presentation delivered at the National Defense University in February, Africom‘s deputy commander, Vice Adm.
Robert Moeller, said, ―Africa holds growing geostrategic importance‖ to the United States—with oil a key factor in this equation— and that among the key challenges to US strategic
interests in the region is China‘s ―Growing Influence in Africa.‖


RESOURCE COMPETITION IN AFRICA CRUSHING U.S. LEDAERSHIP
Klare 8
(Micheal T. Klare, The Nation’s defense correspondent, is professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College. “The New Geopolitics of Energy” The Nation. New York: May
19, 2008. Vol. 286, Iss. 19; pg. 18)

China's drive to gain access to foreign supplies is most evident in Africa, where Beijing has
established ties with the oil-producing governments of Algeria, Angola, Chad, Equatorial
Guinea, Nigeria and Sudan. China has also sought access to Africa's abundant mineral supplies, pursuing copper in Zambia and Congo, chromium in
Zimbabwe and a range of minerals in South Africa. In each case the Chinese have wooed suppliers through vigorous

diplomacy, offers of development assistance and low-interest loans, high-visibility cultural
projects--and, in many cases, arms. China is now a major supplier of basic combat gear to
many of these countries and is especially known for its weapons sales to Sudan--arms that reportedly have been used by government forces in attacks on civilian
communities in Darfur. Moreover, like the United States, China has supplemented its arms transfers with military-

support agreements, leading to a steady buildup of Chinese instructors, advisers and
technicians, who now compete with their US counterparts for the loyalty of African military
officers.




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                                                                         Sea Lanes
GLOBAL SEA LANES ARE VULNERABLE TO CONFLICTS IN THE EVENT OF INCREASES COMPETITION
FOR PETROLEUM. KLARE 2008
(Micheal T. Klare, The Nation’s defense correspondent, is professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College. “The New Geopolitics of Energy” The Nation. New York: May
19, 2008. Vol. 286, Iss. 19; pg. 18)

                                                   two-thirds of its petroleum are
Over the past four decades, total sea borne trade has more than quadrupled: 90% of world trade and

transported by sea. The sea-lanes and supporting shore infrastructure are the lifelines of the
modern global economy.... Heightened popular expectations and increased competition
for resources, coupled with scarcity, may encourage nations to exert wider claims of
sovereignty over greater expanses of ocean, waterways, and natural resources--potentially resulting in
conflict.




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                     War Makes Alt Fuel Transition Impossible
OVERSEAS RESOURCE WARS WILL PERMANENTLY PREVENT ALTERNATIVE ENERGY TRANSITIONS.
KLARE 2008
(Micheal T. Klare, The Nation’s defense correspondent, is professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College. “The New Geopolitics of Energy” The Nation. New York: May
19, 2008. Vol. 286, Iss. 19; pg. 18)

                                                        massive spending on the military dimensions
The principal obstacle to this herculean task is the very reason for its necessity in the first place:

of overseas resource competition. I estimate that it costs approximately $100 billion to $150 billion per
year to enforce the Carter Doctrine, not including the war in Iraq. Extending that doctrine to
the Caspian Sea basin and Africa will add billions. A new cold war with China, with an accompanying naval arms
race, will require trillions in additional military expenditures over the next few decades. This is sheer lunacy: it will not

guarantee access to more sources of energy, lower the cost of gasoline at home or discourage China from seeking new energy resources.
What it will do is sop up all the money we need to develop alternative energy sources and avert the worst
effects of global climate change.




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                                                                    Caspian Cards
ENERGY RESOURCE WARS COMING NOW
Klare 8
(Micheal T. Klare, The Nation’s defense correspondent, is professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College. “The New Geopolitics of Energy” The Nation. New York: May
19, 2008. Vol. 286, Iss. 19; pg. 18)

                                                                    American strategists are increasingly looking beyond these
While the day-to-day focus of US military planning remains Iraq and Afghanistan,

two conflicts to envision the global combat environment of the emerging period—and the
world they see is one where the struggle over vital resources, rather than ideology or balance-of-power
politics, dominates the martial landscape. Believing that the United States must reconfigure its doctrines and forces in
order to prevail in such an environment, senior officials have taken steps to enhance strategic planning and combat capabilities. Although little of
this has reached the public domain, there have been a number of key indicators.


WE’LL WIN A PROBABILITY DEBATE. MAJOR ENERGY RESOURCE WARS ARE COMING NOW.
Attarian 2003
(John Attarian, Ph.D., with a doctorate in economicsfrom the University of Michigan, ―Blood for Oil – and Other Things The coming struggles over resources‖

Klare‘s treatment of oil is especially good. He rightly deems oil the resource most likely to
provoke international conflict. For one thing, it is absolutely crucial to modern economies, which use oil in huge
quantities. Moreover, demand is rising relentlessly. The Department of Energy projects that world use will rise from 77 million barrels a day in 2000 to 94 mbd in

2010 and 110 mbd by 2020. Unfortunately, oil is also ―a finite, nonrenewable substance,‖ and by some time in the

next two decades, we will have used up half the world‘s oil endowment, leading to ―recurring shortages.‖ The jury
is still out about hybrid cars and fuel cells, Klare warns, and he is rightly unenthused about nonconventional oil sources such as tar sands. This situation is worsened by ―the inescapable

                Oil deposits are very unevenly distributed over the planet, mostly concentrated
constraints of geography.‖

in a few areas some of them, such as the Persian Gulf area, highly unstable. This means that
oil availability is closely dependent on the economic and political conditions of a few
countries; disruption in these countries and interruption of the oil flow would mean global
economic hardship. Given all this, he warns, conflict over oil is ―almost a foregone
conclusion.‖




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SECURING OUR OIL SUPPLY WILL INEVITABLY LEAD TO LOW LEVEL CONFLICTS IN GEORGIA
WHICH ESCALATES TO A RUSSIA-US WAR.
Klare 2008
(Micheal T. Klare, The Nation’s defense correspondent, is professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College. “The New Geopolitics of Energy” The Nation. New York: May
19, 2008. Vol. 286, Iss. 19; pg. 18)

The great risk is that this struggle will someday breach the boundaries of economic and
diplomatic competition and enter the military realm. This will not be because any of the
states involved make a deliberate decision to provoke a conflict with a competitor --the leaders of
all these countries know that the price of violence is far too high to pay for any conceivable return. The problem, instead, is
that all are engaging in behaviors that make the outbreak of inadvertent escalation ever
more likely. These include, for example, the deployment of growing numbers of American, Russian and
Chinese military instructors and advisers in areas of instability where there is every risk that
these outsiders will someday be caught up in local conflicts on opposite sides. The danger, of
course, is that the great powers will be sucked into these internal conflicts . This is not a far-fetched scenario;
the United States, Russia and China are already providing arms and military-support services
to factions in many of these disputes. The United States is arming government forces in Nigeria and Angola, China is
aiding government forces in Sudan and Zimbabwe, and so on. An even more dangerous situation prevails in
Georgia, where the United States is backing the pro-Western government of President Mikhail Saakashvili
with arms and military support while Russia is backing the breakaway regions of Abkhazia
and South Ossetia. Georgia plays an important strategic role for both countries because it
harbors the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, a US-backed conduit carrying Caspian Sea oil
to markets in the West. There are US and Russian military advisers/instructors in both areas, in some
cases within visual range of each other. It is not difficult, therefore, to conjure up scenarios in which a future blow-up
between Georgian and separatist forces could lead, willy-nilly, to a clash between American
and Russian soldiers, sparking a much greater crisis.
THE US AND RUSSIA ARE ENGAGING EACH OTHER FOR ACCESS TO THE ―GREAT GAME‖
PRONIŃSKA 2005
(Kamila Pronińsk, is a PhD Fellow in Political Science at the Institute of International Relations of Warsaw University. “Resource Wars in Contemporary International Relations” The Polish Quarterly of International Affairs
(The Polish Quarterly of International Affairs), issue: 3 /2005, pages: 2944,on www.ceeol.com.)

A key element of potential resource conflicts in the Caspian basin is ―the Great Game,‖ the
historical rivalry for access to Caspian resources, extraction of these, the routes by which
they are to be transported and, in consequence, the profits to be reaped. This arresting metaphor of a
grand chess contest, which began in the 19th century and in which empires battled for domination in this oil-rich periphery, remains relevant.15 Today,
Russia and America, which are steadily building up military presences in the region and
reinforcing bilateral diplomatic and commercial links with the Central Asian republics, are
decidedly the most active and strongest rivals. Russia wants to retain a strong, albeit no longer monopolistic, grip
on the movement of Caspian resources and see Russian business acquire substantial stakes
in Central Asian oil and gas consortiums. America, in turn, wants to develop the Caspian
resources as part of a geographical diversification of supply and provide secure transport
routes that bypass Russian and Iranian territory. Though there is an obvious conflict of
interests both sides appear aware of the necessity of cooperation in the region. How the situation unfolds
will, therefore, depend on global shifts in commodity markets and in this context rises or falls in the importance of the Caspian region.




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THE US AND CHINA ARE CURRENTLY COMPETING FOR OIL RESOURCES IN THE CASPIAN SEA
REGION
Meacher 5
(Micheal Meacher, Overseas Development and Co-operation and Minister of State for the Environment and Privy Counsellor British parliement , ―One for oil and oil for one‖ published
spectator London : Mar 5, 2005 Vol. 297, Iss. 9213; pg. 26)

What has been at stake in Ukraine is less a fight over democracy than a struggle over the geopolitics of oil and military
reach. If Ukraine is absorbed into the Nato orbit , Russia will be deprived of access to its naval bases in the Crimea, and Russian oil and gas exports will be squeezed by a new US straitjacket.

But the significance of the Ukrainian confrontation goes even wider. China remains the sole
long-term challenger to US hegemony, and while the Chinese economy has been expanding at a phenomenal rate, its weakness continues to be its energy supply. Once
oil-independent, China has over the last decade become increasingly reliant on imports, which now account for 60 per cent of its oil consumption, compared with only 6 per cent in 1993. Within the next

five years, according to Beijing, China will be importing 50 million tons of oil and 50 billion
cubic metres of gas annually. Chinese petro-diplomacy already extends worldwide,
including Africa, and it is busily establishing surveillance stations, naval facilities and airstrips
to safeguard the oil route from the Gulf to the South China Sea. But its main goal in escaping dependence on maritime oil
supplies is access to Russian and central Asian oil. Another facet, therefore, of intense US pressure on Ukraine is to

forestall any Chinese encroachment on this oil-strategic area in the soft underbelly of the former Soviet Union. Ukraine
is in reality a key flashpoint in the new Great Game being played out by the US , not so much with Russia,
still a declining force, but with China, the emerging long-term threat



DECLINING OIL SUPPLY AND DEPENDENCE LEAD THE US MOVE AGGRESSIVELY INTO THE
CAUCASUS AND CASPIAN SEA REGION
Cornell 99
Svante E. Cornell is a Lecturere at the Department of Peace and Conflict Research and the Department of East European Studies at Uppsala University in Sweden. ―Geopolitics and
Strategic Alignment in the Caucasus and Central Asia,‖ Perceptions: The Journal of International Affairs, IV(2), June-August.

Moving to the role of the United States, it has passed through several phases since 1991.      Initially, Washington was not to keen on asserting
its influence in the region, acknowledging it as Russia‘s sphere of influence. This policy stemmed from, first of all, a persisting respect for the Soviet Union‘s position as a
superpower, but it also stemmed from a lack of knowledge and initiative as concerned the Caspian region, as well as a lack of realization of American interests there. In
the main, Washington limited its policy to espousing the Turkish model for the Muslim states emerging from the Soviet Union, supporting Turkey‘s quest for influence there as well as the true
independence of the newly independent states. The lack of a proactive American policy in the region could be illustrated no better than by the way in which the Armenian lobby in

                                                                                                                However, by 1995-1995 the American policy was
congress was able to hijack American policy and use its influence to shape American policy in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

in a stage of transition. The Azerbaijani oil resources were beginning to influence the White House to treat the

two parties to the conflict in a more equal way, however respect for Russia was a crucial factor. The ground-breaking event was the war in

Chechnya, which proved to US policy makers the actual (conventional) military capabilities of the
Russia: that it could create substantial amounts of trouble but not mount a serious offensive challenge. In others words,
much of the US respect for Russia was lost. It is no coincidence that US policy in the Caspian
became increasingly assertive from the second half of 1996 and the US announced that it considers the
Caucusus and the Caspian a region of ‗vital US interests.




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FOREIGN DEPENDENCE LEADS TO US EFFORTS TO PUSH INTO THE CASPIAN SEA REGION
Klare in 4
Michael Klare is a professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College in Amherst. ―Bush-Cheney Energy Strategy: Procuring the Rest of the World‘s Oil,‖ FPIF-Petro-Politics
Special Report, January

Although the United States will remain dependent on oil from the Persian Gulf are for a long time to come,
officials seek to minimize this dependency to the greatest degree possible by diversifying the
nation‘s sources of imported energy. ―Diversity is important, not only for energy security but also for national security,‖ President Bush declared on
May 17, 2001. ―Over-dependence on any one source of energy , especially a foreign source, leaves us vulnerable

to price shocks, supply interruptions, and in the worst case, blackmail.‖ To prevent this, the administration‘s
energy plan calls for a substantial U.S. effort to boost production in a number of non-Gulf areas, including the Caspian
Sea basin, the West Coast of Africa, and Latin America. The one that is likely to receive the greatest attention from

policy makers is the Caspian Sea basis, consisting of Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and adjacent parts of Iran and
Russia. According to the Department to Energy, this area houses proven reserves (defined as 90% probable) of 17 to 33 billion barrels (5). If the amounts were

confirmed, they would constitute the second largest untapped reserves after the Persian
Gulf area. To ensure that much of this oil will eventually flow to consumer in the West, the U.S. government has made strenuous
efforts to develop the area‘s petroleum infrastructure and distribution system . The United States first sough
access to the Caspian‘s oil supplies during the Clinton administration. Because the Caspian Sea is land-locked, its oil and natural gas must travel by pipeline to other areas. Tapping the
resources requires the construction of long-distance export lines.


US ENERGY INTERESTS IN THE CASPIAN AND CAUCUSUS REGION WILL CAUSE US-RUSSIA
MILITARY BUILD UPS THAT CAUSE A MAJOR POWER WAR
Blank in 2000
Steven J. Blank is the Douglas MacArthur Professor of Research at the U.S. Army War College and has been an Associate Professor of Russia/Soviet Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institutes.
―US Military Engagement with Trancaucasia and Central Asia,‖ Strategic Studies Institute, June, http://carlisle-www.army.mil/usassi/welcome.htm.

None of the states that emerged from the wreckage of the Soviet Union had any experience
as self-governing political communities, or as independent states with their own armed forces. The 12 republics
that retained a formalized link to Russia created a loosely organizational umbrella called the
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Their locations in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia; the significant

possibilities of conflict emerging in and around them; and the presence of major oil and gas
deposits in Azerbaijan and Central Asia, have caused their strategic importance for U.S.
policy to rise steadily. In large measure, this is because access to energy is a vital U.S.
interest, a fact that substantially enhances these countries importance. 1 After all, the Commander-in-Chief United States Central Command (CINC
USCENTCOM), General Anthony Zinni, United States Marine Corps, recently told an interviewer that access to energy
drives our strategy. 2 In the CIS, increasingly important U.S. interests also confront what
Moscow had defined as vital Russian interests. 3 Furthermore, Russia‘s current war with the secessionist province of
Chechnya in the North Caucusus demonstrates Moscow‘s resolve to contest the burgeoning U.S.
presence forcefully. Thus, if a new military encounter between the U.S. and Russian armed
forces (or their proxies) occurs anywhere, this a likely place, whether in joint peace operations or in hostile confrontations.




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INCREASING FOREIGN OIL DEPENDENCE IS LEADING INCREASING US MILITARY BUILD-UP IN THE
CASPIAN SEA REGION
Klare in 4
Michael Klare is a professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College in Amherst. ―Bush-Cheney Energy Strategy: Procuring the Rest of the World‘s Oil,‖ FPIF-Petro-Politics
Special Report, January

               the Bush administration sought to accelerate the expansion of Caspian
Building on Clinton‘s efforts,

production facilities and pipelines. ―Foreign investors and technology are critical to rapid
development of new commercially viable export routes ,‖ the Cheney report affirms. ―Such development
will ensure that rising Caspian oil production is effectively integrated into world oil trade .‖ Particular
emphasis is placed on completion of the BTC pipeline and on increasing the participation of U.S. companies in Caspian energy projects. The administration also sought to build an oil
and gas pipeline of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan on the east shore of the Caspian to Baku on the west shore to channel more energy from Central Asia to the BTC system. Until

                                                                                                  To combat
September 11, 2001 U.S. involvement in the Caspian Sea basin and Central Asia had been restricted mostly to economic, diplomatic, and military aid agreements.

the Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan however, the Department of Defense deployed tens of
thousands of combat troops in the region and established military bases in Kyrgyzstan and
Uzbekistan. The administration recalled some of these troops but apparently plans to
maintain bases and a permanent military presence. This is supposedly intended to assist in
war against terrorism, but is also to safeguard the flow of petroleum . The administration deployed military instructors to
Georgia to provide counter-insurgency training for special units that will eventually guard the Georgian segments of the BTC pipelines.


INCREASED MILITARY COMMITMENT MAKES CONFLICT DRAW-IN A CERTAINTY
Blank in 2000
Steven J. Blank is the Douglas MacArthur Professor of Research at the U.S. Army War College and has been an Associate Professor of Russia/Soviet Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institutes.
―US Military Engagement with Trancaucasia and Central Asia,‖ Strategic Studies Institute, June, http://carlisle-www.army.mil/usassi/welcome.htm.

        the increasing interest of the United States in preserving the area as ―zone of free
Accordingly,

competition‖ and denying Russian or Iranian influence in region makes Washington the
arbiter or leader on virtually every interstate and international issue in the area . These include everything
from the Minsk process to negotiate Nagorno-Karabakh, to the opening of a ―new Silk Road‖ and/or East-West trade corridor, apart from energy and pipeline routes for oil and gas. The
consuming interest in the pipeline routes has led the U.S. Government to take public positions as well on vital regional security issues like the international status of the Caspian Sea, to

                                                                                       Contrary to
arbitrate or mediate competing claims between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, and to take the lead in organizing or guaranteeing regional investment projects.

the U.S. stated intention that NATO enlargement and associated trends would not lead it to
become further embroiled in all kinds of local issues, the exact opposite is happening,
placing Washington at the center of international adjudication and influence for those
questions. This deepening political-economic-military involvement can only raise the
region‘s stakes for key U.S. constituencies, perhaps including the armed forces. Or else, the
Transcaspian‘s heightened importance could lead the U.S. Government to determine that in
the event of a challenge to security there, that critical or even vital interests are threatened .




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U.S. DEMAND FOR PETROLEUM IS INCREASING U.S. SECURITY ENTRIES IN THE CASPIAN. THIS
STRIKES AT THE CORE OF VITAL RUSSIAN NATIONAL INTERESTS AND ENSURE RUSSIA MUST TAKE
MILITARY ACTION TO SECURE IT’S SUPPLY LINES. THE SITUATION PARALLELS THE OUTBREAK OF
WARS IN THE MIDDLE EAST
Blank in 2000
Steven J. Blank is the Douglas MacArthur Professor of Research at the U.S. Army War College and has been an Associate Professor of Russia/Soviet Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institutes.
―US Military Engagement with Trancaucasia and Central Asia,‖ Strategic Studies Institute, June, http://carlisle-www.army.mil/usassi/welcome.htm.

From seeking to supplant the primacy of Russian affiliations with local defense establishments and energy
producers, Washington is now trying to compel Russia to accept a very inferior position
compared to its regional ambitions. In September 1995, U.S. experts on Central Asia met at NATO headquarters
and cited the extensive U.S. interests in Caspian energy deposits as a reason why Washington

might have to extend its Persian Gulf security guarantees to this region.27 U.S. involvement has
only taken off since then. While U.S. officials intone visions of a win-win situation for everyone, where
everyone has shared interests in developing these energy markets, they have really aimed to deny and break Russia‘s

monopoly over the reinforces the notion that this is the true objective. Indeed, it is difficult to
escape the conclusion that America‘s Caspian policy is predicated on the illusion of a
―unipolar moment‖ where Washington alone can orchestrate, and indefinitely maintain a
congenial alignment of international forces. The implication is that it is possible to fashion
relations in the Caspian region so as to constrain Russian decision-making with relatively little
Russian resistance.29 Naturally Russia resists this policy because it believes its vital interests are at
stake here. Moscow increasingly fears a new U.S.-led cordon sanitaire in the area. Russian
analysts write that were such a U.S. led system to develop, Forces potentially hostile to Russia
would gain opportunities to control the principal transport arteries used for Russia‘s imports
and exports, something that, in view of the dependence of entire economic branches and
regions of Russia on exports of raw materials and imports of food and other goods, could
prove to be a very effective level of pressure on Russia‘s leadership.30 Russian analysts also
view with particular alarm the plethora of bilateral military agreements with her former Soviet
republics. They regard our shaping strategy with its military presence as a thinly veiled effort to undermine Russia‘s regional influence and insert America‘s and/or NATO‘s military
presence throughout the region. Recently, many Russian elites, including Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov and Defense Minister General Igor

Sergeyev raised the alarm that U.S. policy even aims to force Russia out altogether .31 These fears have
gained renewed immediacy and urgency in the wake of NATO‘s Kosovo campaign since Russian military-political elites interpreted it as a prelude to a similar future anti-Russian
campaign in the Transcaspian.32 Even though Russia has failed to achieve meaningful reintegration of the CIS, pursuing that aim is essential to Moscow‘s recovery of a sense of itself as a

                            Moscow feels the United States should keep out of the region and
great power, and to its actual security. 33 Hence

strives valiantly to proclaim the equivalent of a CIS Monroe Doctrine .34 These contrasting views
highlight the strategic quality of thethe Russo-American competition for leverage and
influence over regional energy. Adding to that competition is the fact that as the region‘s states
depend on energy for capital and any future development, whoever controls their lifeline
controls their destiny, a regional strategic consideration of utmost importance. Therefore
Washington attaches ever more importance to this region as the struggle for energy heats
up and parallels the U.S. efforts to construct a world order in Europe and the Middle East.




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MAJOR POWER ESCALATION IN THE REGION IS HIGHLY LIKELY BECAUSE OF THE URGENCY OF
ENERGY INTEREST AND FUNDAMENTAL MISCALCULATIONS. THE WAR WOULD DRAW ALL
REGIONAL PLAYERS INCLUDING CHINA. THE PRESENCE OF MASSES OF TROOPS MEAN EVEN
MINOR CONFLICTS WILL ESCALATE
Blank in 2000
Steven J. Blank is the Douglas MacArthur Professor of Research at the U.S. Army War College and has been an Associate Professor of Russia/Soviet Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institutes.
―US Military Engagement with Trancaucasia and Central Asia,‖ Strategic Studies Institute, June, http://carlisle-www.army.mil/usassi/welcome.htm.

The same objective applies with equal force to Iran, another regional competitor in Central
Asia and the Transcaucasia. As the 1998 National Security Strategy says, ―The United States will not allow a hostile
power to dominate any region of critical importance to our interests .‖11 But because precisely
such a domination remains Moscow‘s critical objective, the pursuit of U.S. objectives must
entail a vigorous political confrontation with Russia over the CIS. That confrontation need not be violent, but, as Chechnya shows, it
could become a contest of force. Therefore we would be deluding ourselves if we thought that internal conditions within these regions, plus their
geopolitical contexts, make for smooth sailing for the next generation. We would also be deluding ourselves if we thought that

Moscow will soon share the U.S. objective that it is only interested in a ―win-win‖ situation in the CIS.
Nevertheless many U.S. policymakers and elites continue or profess to believe that Russia
shares our goals and will follow our agenda in world politics. 12 And apart from what Russia and the United States might do,
there are enough internal dangers throughout the Transcaspian to trigger conflicts that
could then force outside states with major regional interests to intervene . And those need not be only Russia and
the United States. Turkey, Iran, and China all have substantial and growing interests in the

Transcaspian and could see the need to intervene and defend them . Naturally those interventions could have an
impact on our subsequent policies and actions.




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HIGH RISK OF WAR IN THE CASPIAN NOW—PIPELINE CONFLICTS ARE FORCING MAJOR TO TAKE
SIDES AND PROXIES TO USE MILITARIES TO STAKE ENERGY CLAIMS
Weitz in 8
Richard Weitz is Senior Fellow and Director for Project Management at the Hudson Institute. CASPIAN ENERGY GAME HEATS UP By Richard Weitz (06/11/2008 issue of the CACI Analyst),
http://www.cacianalyst.org/?q=node/4878

Last month, Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedov became the first Turkmen president to visit Azerbaijan
since his deceased predecessor, Saparmurad Niyazov, traveled there in 1996. Any reconciliation between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan would be doubly
important from the perspective of world energy markets. First, the two countries possess extensive oil and gas reserves within their territories. Second, their geographic location allows

them to function as potential gateways for energy exports from Central Asia through the South Caucasus to Europe and the Mediterranean region. BACKGROUND:        A week
after Berdymuhammedov visited Baku, the leaders of Azerbaijan and six other former Soviet republics met in Kyiv to
launch a new initiative to transport Caspian oil through Ukraine without traversing Russian
territory. In addition to calling for a ―Caspian energy space,‖ they announced ambitious plans to send oil from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan through Georgia to Ukraine‘s Black Sea
port of Odessa, then on to the Ukrainian town of Brody and, by extending an existing pipeline through Poland, onward to the Baltic Sea port of Gdansk. Meanwhile, American

and European government representatives recently visited several Caspian countries to
reaffirm interest in importing natural gas through pipelines that would run under the Caspian
Sea. The improvement in relations between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan could help remove one major obstacle to the desired increase in Caspian Sea energy deliveries to Europe.
Niyazov and former Azerbaijani leader Heydar Aliyev argued over the repayment terms of Baku‘s multi-million dollar debt to Ashgabat as well as over several Caspian hydrocarbon fields
located between them. At their recent summit, Berdymuhammedov, who replaced Niyazov last year, and Ilham Aliyev, who succeeded his father as president in 2003, agreed to repay
the debt and negotiate ownership, or possible joint use, of the fields. The younger Aliyev evidently considered it an acceptable downpayment to initiate a potentially lucrative energy

                       the feud between the two governments had complicated the already
partnership with Turkmenistan. Until now,

difficult negotiations among the five littoral states regarding how to divide and manage the
Caspian Sea and its valuable undersea natural resources. The main issue in dispute is whether to treat the Caspian as if it were a
sea (despite its being landlocked) or an inland lake (despite its enormous size and natural resources) according to international law. If the littoral states were to manage the Caspian as if
it were a sea, then each country would control the territorial waters along their coasts and corresponding seabeds. If the Caspian is treated legally as if it were a large inland lake, there
would be room to argue that all five littoral states should own the sea in common and share equally in its collective natural resources, though this is by no means standard international
practice. The protracted legal stalemate has long discouraged multinational energy firms from investing the large-scale capital required to exploit the deep-sea oil and gas fields located
far from the countries‘ coasts. In addition, the bilateral Azerbaijani-Turkmen dispute and the failure of all five littoral governments to agree on uniform legal principles for maritime
commerce has stalled plans to construct undersea pipelines to transport oil and gas from Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and possibly Uzbekistan across the Caspian in a direct route to

                                                                                                                                                        Moscow
European markets. Using seabed pipelines is more economically rational than the current practice of loading and unloading cargo on surfacing-going tankers.

and Tehran maintain that all five littoral governments must approve the construction of trans-
Caspian energy pipelines because any country could suffer economic losses from
environmental damage caused by the pipelines. Whatever the sincerity of these concerns, the desire to block
east-west energy routes that circumvent Russian and Iranian territory might also explain their
respective governments‘ demands for veto rights. The Kremlin collects considerable
dividends from Central Asian oil and gas deliveries that pass through its territory , which it resells to Europe.
Tehran, which recently had to accept a hefty price increase for Turkmenistan‘s natural gas imported through the Korpezhe-Kurt Kui pipeline, presumably also wants to
limit third-party competition for Caspian energy exports. In addition, Iran has been improving its Caspian port infrastructure to
induce Central Asian governments to send more oil and gas southward to its Persian Gulf ports. For example, Iranians are constructing a massive trade and port facility at Bandar-e Anzali.
IMPLICATIONS: The governments of Turkmenistan as well as Kazakhstan recently reaffirmed their intent to expand their deliveries of oil and gas northward through Russian-controlled
pipelines connecting Central Asia with European markets. In addition, both capitals remain interested in delivering large quantities of oil and gas through Iran to South Asia. Nonetheless,
they are eager to diversify their export routes westward to supplement their hydrocarbon exports through Russia, Iran, and China. In late April, Kazakhstan‘s senate ratified an energy
export treaty with Azerbaijan that would formally launch the long-planned Kazakhstan Caspian Transport System (KCTS). Following the construction of an oil terminal at Kuryk, ships will
load as much as 500,000 barrels of crude oil daily and transport it across the Caspian to Azerbaijan, where their cargo will be unloaded and channeled into the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC)
pipeline. Energy analysts expect that, should the tanker system prove inadequate, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan might commit to the construction of an undersea pipeline that would feed
oil directly into the BTC. An obvious route, for either oil or gas, would utilize pipelines traversing Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan‘s sectors of the Caspian seabed since the distance between

                                                               Ignoring Iranian opposition to such undersea
their shores is the shortest—and therefore the most economical—path across the sea.

pipelines as well as offshore energy production might prove risky. The uncertainties regarding Iran could discourage risk-
averse foreign investment. In addition, Tehran boasts the second-strongest navy in the Caspian, which Iranian

leaders have used previously to enforce their claims over Caspian resources. In 2001, Iran dispatched military
ships and aircraft to threaten two Azerbaijani research vessels exploring oilfields in the southern Caspian.




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THE RUSSIANS ARE IN A POSITION TO DEEPLY MISCALCULATE IN CASPIAN SEA REGION—WAR
OUTBREAK IS EXTREMELY LIKELY
Blank in 2000
Steven J. Blank is the Douglas MacArthur Professor of Research at the U.S. Army War College and has been an Associate Professor of Russia/Soviet Affairs at the Strategic Studies Institutes.
―US Military Engagement with Trancaucasia and Central Asia,‖ Strategic Studies Institute, June, http://carlisle-www.army.mil/usassi/welcome.htm.

Notwithstanding recent trends,  the real danger in this context remains that Moscow will exploit deficiencies
in regional conflict resolution mechanisms to prevent its marginalization, obstruct peace,
and preserve a military approach to local problems, even though its own abilities to impose
a just and/or lasting settlement are absent. In other words, Moscow could easily do something stupid
and embark upon strategic adventurism that puts its own integrity at risk. Or it might incite
others to launch a conflict whose ends are unforeseeable. The current Chechen war could easily
develop into precisely the kind of reckless adventure that risks Russia‘s integrity and whose
ends are nowhere in sight. For example, at a time when there is no usable conventional force to speak of above the level of minor police actions, and the
entire North Caucasus is on the brink of war, Admiral Viktor Kravchenko, CINC of the Black Sea Fleet, Russia‘s local naval forces, announced a

program to give Russia parity with Turkey in the Black Sea by creating special missile-carrying
hovercraft and deploying long-range aircraft. These are hardly useful deployments given the
real threats at hand. But they signify that Moscow is still competing with NATO‘s naval forces ,
not local unrest. Thus in any potential regional conflict Moscow is still fighting the wrong war,
and doing so with weapons and systems ill-suited to the threats at hand. 82 Because there is
so much ―dry timber‖ throughout this region and in Russia, adventurers may try to force a
military action through, seeing that otherwise all is lost. Indeed, many now intone despairing remarks about the future precisely
because of the West‘s penetration of Transcaucasia. Accordingly, gamblers and adventurists in the Caucasus could stimulate

like-minded actors in Russia who would have no sound concept of strategic reality or of the
stakes involved. Internal instabilities and structural defects in one state could easily reinforce
those in other states, drawing many actors into the fray. Thus, the confluence of these structural defects makes this area the most
dangerous one in the CIS and at the same time creates a target for sound domestic and foreign policies to stabilize the area and prevent recurrent violence.




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                                          Supply Competition Impacts
IMPACT OF SUPPLY AND COMPETITION – HURT BUSINESSES AND US CONSUMERS
Peter J. Robertson. May 22, 2008. Vice Chairman of the Chevron Corporation. ―Committee on House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust & Competition Policy Task Force‖

The price of oil has risen recently to above $125 a barrel - a record level and double its price at this time last year. Given that the largest portion of the cost of gasoline is crude oil,
gasoline prices have risen to record heights. According to the Department of Energy, a gallon of regular gasoline retailed on average for $3.72 in the first week of May, with the price of
crude oil accounting for about $2.65 of this amount. Federal, state and local taxes averaged 47 cents per gallon, making the combined effect of crude costs and taxes $3.12 per gallon

                                While the price of crude oil has soared, it is important to understand that
or 84 percent. (See Appendix chart #1)

the market forces of demand, supply and competition have prevented gasoline prices from
keeping pace. That average gasoline price for the first week of May rose 20 percent over the price for the same week last year - a relatively small amount compared to the
jump crude has experienced. Consumers and businesses feel the effects of high crude oil and gasoline

prices from the supermarket to the airport. Chevron is both a producer and a user of energy, and we are concerned about escalating oil prices
just as any other energy consumer is. To address these concerns going forward, it is important to understand the many factors affecting the price of oil and, therefore, the price of

           There are fundamental factors affecting the current price of oil, including rising
transportation fuels.

demand, the reduction in the supply system's spare capacity to deal with unforeseen
disruptions, the value of the U.S. dollar and the associated flight to commodities, and rising
risk both above ground and below ground.

SUPPLY SCARCITY MEANS ANY DISRUPTIONS AFFECTS OIL PRICES
Peter J. Robertson. May 22, 2008. Vice Chairman of the Chevron Corporation. ―Committee on House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust & Competition Policy Task Force‖


The accelerated increase in demand since 2004 has reduced the global spare capacity of crude
oil, creating a tighter relationship between supply and demand and heightened concerns in markets around the world
(See Appendix chart #4). Falling or flat U.S. production is a contributing factor and adds to these pressures. According
to the Department of Energy, U.S. crude oil production has fallen approximately 40 percent since 1985, while U.S. consumption has grown more than 30 percent to more than 20 million

                                                                               The narrowing of
barrels per day today. In real barrels, U.S. oil production is now approximately 5 million barrels per day down from approximately 9 million in 1985.

spare production capacity in the world means that even when a relatively small amount of
resource is at risk of disruption due to a variety of factors, it can affect the price of oil.




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SUPPLY ALONG WITH THE WEAK US DOLLAR EQUATES TO STOCK INVESTORS FLEEING
Peter J. Robertson. May 22, 2008. Vice Chairman of the Chevron Corporation. ―Committee on House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust & Competition Policy Task Force‖

Demand and supply pressures on oil prices are compounded by the weakening of the U.S.
dollar. The higher oil price is in part a market adjustment that reflects the weakening
purchasing power of oil exporting countries that sell their oil in U.S. dollars but buy goods with stronger currencies
such as the euro. Additionally, the weak dollar and concern by stock investors over the subprime issue and

its impact on the stock market has contributed to a flight to commodities by investors
seeking better returns (See Appendix chart #6). Oil has gone up along with many other commodities such as gold, corn, copper and even coal.

IN AN ATTEMPT TO ALEVE SUPPLY STRAINS, THE US IS SPENDING BILLIONS ON ONE OIL PROJECT
Peter J. Robertson. May 22, 2008. Vice Chairman of the Chevron Corporation. ―Committee on House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust & Competition Policy Task Force‖

There has never been a more urgent need to be realistic about the energy system's
interdependence and its size and scale. We also need to recognize the magnitude of resources both financial and organizational needed to
keep it running. Today's energy infrastructure requires substantial ongoing investment to sustain production, tap new sources and meet growing demand. In fact, in its 2007 Energy

   the International Energy Agency has projected that the world will require $22 trillion in
Outlook,

new energy investments by 2030, with $7 trillion needed to produce the resources the crude oil, natural gas, coal and biofuels needed to meet demand.
Nearly half of these investments will be in developing countries. As we strive to meet
demand, we are overcoming increasingly extreme and remote environments while responding head-on to
the challenges posed by climate change. Our industry has evolved over the last 100 years from drilling with relatively simple wooden derricks that barely scraped the earth's surface to
complex offshore platforms that produce oil from reservoirs located miles below, where pressures can exceed 20,000 pounds per square inch and temperatures can surpass the boiling

     One new crude oil project on the frontiers of the Gulf of Mexico can cost more than $5
point.

billion and take more than 10 years to bring onstream. A recent expansion of production at the Tengiz field in Kazakhstan which
added less than one percent to global oil supplies took more man hours of labor than the construction of the Panama Canal. We will need as many of these projects as we can get.




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                                              China-Supply Competition
THE BIGGEST THREAT TO AMERICA LIES IN OIL SUPPLY COMPETITION
VETO F. ROLEY. January 18, 2008 Friday. The Mississippi Press. ―Taylor Says He Supports Going Nuclear‖
Taylor, D-Miss., said the United States has to reduce its dependence on oil, saying that he believed that 50 percent of the oil in the ground has already been discovered and exploited.

In addition to decreasing supplies of oil, he said demand for the fossil fuel is increasing. The
United States alone, he said, uses about 25 percent of the available supply. Competition for
that supply is getting tougher, with economies in large nations such as China and India using
more energy, he said. "It's a matter of supply and demand," Taylor said. With supply going down and demand going up,
he said prices will remain high. He noted the source of oil is in a region that is not friendly to
the United States. Speaking to concerns about the Strategic Oil Reserve's proposed Richton Salt Dome project, Taylor said the reserve was
first formed in the early 1970s in response to the Arab oil embargo. "The biggest threat to national security is

someone shutting off oil to our military," he said. When that happens, he said, jet planes don't
fly and tanks don't run.

CHINA’S ANSWER TO THE SUPPLY COMPETITION DRIVES UP ENERGIES PRICES, RISES LABOR
COSTS, AND CREATES TENSIONS OVER TAIWAN
Rohit Talwar. July 1, 2007. ―"The Future of China's Economy: The Path to 2020--Opportunities, Challenges and Uncertainties." www.thegff.com

As energy demand increases with economic growth, supplies have been a major worry. However,
Talwar reports that "the bottleneck of coal, oil, and electricity supply has been alleviated. ... There is an increase in coal transportation and output of electricity generation so fewer and

                             Since China's increasing hunger for energy affects global supply,
fewer places have seen the blackout of electricity."

competition will drive up energy prices globally. Despite having made deals with suppliers
such as Venezuela, Russia, and Iran, some respondents "questioned China's ability to pay
relative to rich Western nations," according to Talwar. Other concerns cited by the respondents include
rising labor costs, transport problems, lack of available finance, and tensions over Taiwan.

SUPPLY COMPETITION LEADS TO US-CHINA CONFLICT
SENATOR JOE BIDEN (D-DE); May 15, 8. PANEL II OF A HEARING OF THE SENATE FOREIGN RELATIONS COMMITTEE; ―U.S.-CHINA RELATIONS IN THE
ERA OF GLOBALIZATION‖
                                                 There's many arguments for reducing, as I know this committee has heard from
Let me say one or two things about energy and the environment.

others, demand for oil . And here I'd list the impact on price, flows of dollars to producers and climate

change. The United States and China happen to share these interests as well as a stake in
the growth of supply and the stability of supplier countries. What the two countries, though,
also share is a stake in avoiding growing competition over access to energy supplies. Such
competition could drive up price, or worse, it could bring about conceivably, in a worst possible case,
conflict.




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                          FYI-Text of Senate Bill
SEC. 11. PROCUREMENT OF UNCONVENTIONAL FUELS BY
17 THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE.
18 Section 2398a of title 10, United States Code, is
19 amended—
20 (1) in subsection (b)—
21 (A) by striking ‗‗The Secretary‘‘ and in22
serting the following:
23 ‗‗(1) IN GENERAL.—The Secretary‘‘; and
24 (B) by adding at the end the following:
‗‗(2) COAL-TO-LIQUID PRODUCTION FACILI2
TIES.—
3 ‗‗(A) IN GENERAL.—The Secretary of De4
fense may enter into contracts or other agree5
ments with private companies or other entities
6 to develop and operate coal-to-liquid facilities
7 (as defined in section 2 of the Coal-to-Liquid
8 Fuel Promotion Act of 2006) on or near mili9
tary installations.
10 ‗‗(B) CONSIDERATIONS.—In entering into
11 contracts and other agreements under subpara12
graph (A), the Secretary shall consider land
13 availability, testing opportunities, and proximity
14 to raw materials.‘‘;
15 (2) in subsection (d), by striking ‗‗1 or more
16 years‘‘ and inserting ‗‗up to 25 years‘‘; and
17 (3) by adding at the end the following:
18 ‗‗(f) AUTHORIZATION OF APPROPRIATIONS.—There
19 are authorized to be appropriated such sums as are nec20
essary to carry out this section.‘‘.




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                                    Plan Boosts Australia Economy
INCREASING THE PRICE OF COAL BOOSTS AUSTRALIA ECONOMY
AAP Newsfeed May 7, 2008
Australia's prosperity will be boosted by clean coal technology, federal government climate change adviser Professor Ross Garnaut says.   Addressing the NSW Clean Coal Summit in

                       the rising prices for exported coal would boost Australia's economy.
Sydney this morning, Prof Garnaut said

"The increase in export price of coal this year is likely to add about $25 billion to the value of
Australian exports," he said. "The increase in price alone in one year of this one commodity, our
largest export commodity, is likely to contribute more than 2.5 times the total value of exports
of all merchandise to the United States of America.




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                                    China Warming Outweighs CTL
CHINA EMISSIONS OUTWEIGH CTL INCREASES
Malloy in 8
Coal may hold solution to gas prices Monday, June 23, 2008m By Daniel Malloy, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Technologies now on the market will capture only 60 percent to 70 percent of carbon emissions from
coal-to-liquid plants. Environmentalists would like to see those numbers get to between 90 percent and 95 percent before the projects move forward, yet the
technology to reach such targets is 12 to 15 years away, according to Mr. Popovich. "It is very frustrating to once again have the

environmental community standing in the way of lowering energy prices," he said. "China's
greenhouse gas emissions greatly surpass our own and will even more so in coming years,
and they're not covered by any of this. To us, any way you look at it, it seems to be foolish for the United
States to continue to rule off limits this enormously valuable energy resource for
transportation fuel."




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ALTERNATIVE ENERGY IS NON-TRADITIONAL
New Fuel Now.com in 8
http://www.newfuelnow.com/alternativeenergyfunds/

                   Alternative energy is a term used for some energy sources, and energy
Alternative energy stocks of the world -

storage technologies. Generally, it indicates energies that are non-traditional and have low
environmental impact.
CTL IS A ALTERNATIVE ENERGY STOCK
ALTEnergystocks.com in 7
http://www.altenergystocks.com/archives/coaltoliquids/, September 2

Here is my list of the alternative energy stocks I think would benefit most from short and long
term increases in the price of oil: Batteries/Hybrids: Short term: Hybrid car makers such as Toyota (NYSE: TM) and Honda (NYSE: HMC)
will benefit as people spooked by high gas prices buy hybrids. Longer Term: All carmakers will be introducing efficient cars, so component makers with an advantage in efficiency such
as Magna International (NYSE: MGA), as well as battery and capacitor manufacturers will benefit. A war with Iran might cause car makers to stop waiting for better Lithium Ion batteries

and just go with the tried and true NiMH batteries in a big way.  Biofuels          Short term: Ethanol from corn is lousy on the environment, but almost all the energy that goes into it is
domestic. So most corn ethanol producers will benefit. I have mixed feelings about biofuels, but ADM is my favorite, because they have a dominant position, and produce their own
feedstock. Biodiesel producers will also get a boost, for the same reason, but try to find ones which don't rely too much on the commodity oil markets. Longer Term: Look to cellulosic

ethanol companies, such as BlueFire Ethanol Inc. (OTCPK: BFRE), and ethanol from sugar companies such as Brazil's Cosan (NYSE: CZZ.)          Coal-to-Liquids                   Short term: Coal
to Liquids (CTL) firms are likely to get a big short term boost because coal is domestic. Long term: CTL may have trouble due to constraints in the domestic supply of coal. In general
technologies that can be used for transportation fuels will see big benefits, with lesser benefits being felt by electricity generation technologies. I've declined to list hydrogen here,
because I think it's not a very good transportation fuel due to its low density, the additional energy costs of compression, as well as the high cost of fuel cells. DISCLOSURE: Tom Konrad
and/or his clients have positions in MGA, ADM.



EVEN ANTI-CTL GROUPS AGREE THAT IT’S ALTERNATIVE ENERGY
Preston in 7
D K, http://www.jetsongreen.com/2007/05/alternative_ene.html, May
Here's the gist: a powerful, bipartisan group of Republicans and Democrats are pushing for billions of dollars of subsidies on the controversial coal-to-liquid production plants. We're talking

                                                     Coal companies are calling the technology an
about loan guarantees for 6-10 major coal-to-liquid plants at a cost of $3 billion per plant.

"alternative" because it's not coming from the Middle East. In that sense, it's true. Coal is
plentiful and cheap in the United States. Its supporters include Barack Obama (D-Ill.), Rick Boucher (D-Va.), Jim Bunning (R-Ky.), and Larry Craig (R-
Wy.).


ALTERNATIVE ENERGY INCLUDES NON-RENEWABLES LIKE CTL AND NUCLEAR—YOUR AUTHORS
ARE JUST LIBERAL HACKS
Everett in 8
Rep. Terry Everett, R-Ala. (2nd CD), HOUSE LIBERALS DEFY AMERICAN PUBLIC BY OPPOSING ENERGY DRILLING US Fed News June 23, 2008 Monday 12:27 AM EST

The liberal leadership of Congress remains defiant in its stance that energy conservation and alternative fuels -
technologies which are years from effective implementation and not enough to address all our needs - are the
only answer. Meanwhile, liberals in Congress support more taxes on oil companies which will just be passed down to the consumer, and even a national "carbon tax" of 50
cents a gallon! Apparently, failed energy policies of the 1970's are the best they can offer. In contrast, House Republicans have introduced seven

different bills that would increase access to America's vast oil and gas reserves, encourage construction of new domestic oil refineries to further increase
gasoline supplies at home, promote the development of safe and proven alternative energy including coal-to-

liquid technology, and increase the use of nuclear power. The liberal House leadership is opposed to this legislation




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JEDI 2k8                                                                               Alt Liquid Fuels
Lab QQQQQQQQQQ!
ALTERNATIVE ENERGY INCLUDES CTL AND OIL SHALE
Davis in 8
Tennessee Rep. David Davis, States News Service February 27, 2008 Wednesday

What we need is common sense; we need an energy bill that will reduce our dependency on
foreign oil by rewarding those who partake in alternative energy practices and allows the U.S. to drill for oil on
our own soil. We need an energy bill that utilizes alternative energy sources like wind, water, coal to

liquid technology, and oil shale."




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