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					                                 A C Choksi                                                                                              Noida Toll Bridge Co. Ltd
                                Share Brokers Private Limited
                                                                                                                                                Growing from Assured Return
Nurturing Wealth                                                                                                                                      May 24, 2011
 ________________________________
 Key Stock Summary
 ________________________________                                                                     ___________________________________________________
                                                                                                      Investment Rationale                    BUY
  Current Market Price (Rs.)                                          25.15                           F    A Concession Agreement confers the right to Noida Toll Bridge Co. Ltd (NTBCL)
  Target Price (Rs.)                                                  39.00
                                                                                                      for recovering the project costs with a designated rate of return (20%) over the 30 years
                                                                                                      concession period or till such time the designated return is recovered whichever is earlier;
  BSE Code                                                            532481                          and if not recovered the right is extendable by 2 years at a time till the project cost and the
  Bloomberg Ticker                                                    NTB IN                          designated return thereon is recovered.
  Face Value (Rs.)                                                    10.00                           F   In Feb 2011 proposed toll hike was rolled back due to protests. As required for
  Shares Outstanding (in crs)                                         18.62                           maintenance , NTBCL has taken up issue for increase in toll rates with authorities. It is
  Market Cap (Rs crs)                                                 471.06                          expecting a hike in the range of 10-22% (at least 10%) in the toll rates by May - June 2011.
  Enterprise Value (Rs crs)                                           633.61                          F    From 2000-01 to 2009 -10 there has been good growth in the average daily traffic. For
  52-week range (Rs)(H/L)                                        40.00/24.75                          FY 2012, NTBCL is expecting at least 5% further traffic growth. The planned
  Beta                                                                0.8218                          implementation of Noida and development of Yamuna Expressway will also lead to
                                                                                                      further increase in traffic.
  Avg. daily Volumes 2 Week                                           37721
  Dividend Yield (%)                                                       -                          F    The Concession Agreement provides for granting Land Development Rights to
                                                                                                      NTBCL for supporting any shortfall in earnings. The Company has 100 acres of land and
 Source : Capitaline, A C Choksi Research
                                                                                                      has been seeking development rights. Upon approvals and the commencement of land
                                                                                                      development , it will get revenues and profit contribution from land development also.
 ________________________________
 Share Holding Pattern
 ________________________________                                                                     F pays interest at fixed rate on its debt of ~ Rs.148 crores, it does not has
                                                                                                           As NTBCL
                                                                                                      any direct impact on its profitability in the current scenario of rising interest rates.

                                                 22%                                                  Valuation
     41%
                                                                                                      NTBCL has good earnings prospects in its business segment. Assured return clause in
                                                                      Foreign, Institutions & Govt.   concession agreement, likely increase in toll rates, potential for increase in traffic and the
                                                                      Promoters
                                                                      Non-Promoter Corporate
                                                                                                      clause in the concession agreement for grant of land development rights are some of the
                                                       26%            Public & Others                 factors which are leading towards strong growth as well as earnings and profits of the
                         11%                                                                          company in the coming period. At the Current Market Price (CMP) of Rs.25.15 NTBCL is
                                                                                                      trading at a P/E of 12.51. Based on growth prospects, we believe that for Financial year
                                                                                                      2012, NTBCL`s forward Earnings per share (EPS) to be Rs.2.23, thus we recommend a
                                                                                                      buy call on the stock at CMP of Rs.25.15 which is trading at only 11.28x Financial year 2012
 Source : Capitaline, A C Choksi Research                                                             estimated EPS with a target price of Rs.39 giving a potential upside of 55%.
 ________________________________                                                                     ___________________________________________________
 Share Price Movement
 ________________________________                                                                     Financial Snapshot
                                                                                                      ___________________________________________________
  Sensex                                                                                NTBCL         Particulars       FY07     FY08     FY09     FY10
                                                                                                      ___________________________________________________
   21600                                                                                 38
   20800                                                                                 36           Net Sales (Rs. In crores)            47.11         66.89          79.83            83.90
   20000                                                                                 34
   19200                                                                                 32
                                                                                                      EBITDA (Rs. In crores)               35.00         49.79          58.48            60.93
   18400                                                                                 30           EBITDA (%)                          74.29%        74.44%         73.26%           72.62%
   17600                                                                                 28
   16800                                                                                 26
                                                                                                      PAT (Rs. In crores)                   11.06        27.98          33.50            27.45
   16000                                                                               24             PAT (%)                             23.48%        41.83%         41.96%           32.72%
       May-10   Jul-10         Sep-10        Nov-10     Jan-11    Mar-11          May-11
                                                                                                      Adjusted EPS                          0.52          1.47           1.76             1.44
                               B SE_SENSEX                   NTB CL
                                                                                                      ROCE (%)                             7.85%        11.55%         14.25%           16.20%
 Source : Capitaline, A C Choksi Research                                                             RONW(%)                              3.06%         5.61%          8.58%            6.57%
                                                                                                      P/E (x)                              48.23         17.12          14.29            17.50
 Equity Research Team                                                                                 EV/EBITDA (x)                        18.69         13.74          11.38            10.40
                                                                                                      ___________________________________________________
 Email: research@acchoksi.com                                                                         Source: Capitaline, A C Choksi Research
 Contact: 022-3021 9046/9025

 _____________________________________________________________________________________
 A C Choksi Fundamental Research                           research@acchoksi.com    1
                                     A C Choksi
                                  Share Brokers Private Limited

Nurturing Wealth

                                                                                              Company Overview
                                                                                              Noida Toll Bridge Co. Ltd (NTBCL) is a special purpose vehicle and was set up to develop
                                                                                              construct, operate, maintain and implement the Delhi Noida Toll Bridge on a Build Own Operate
                                                                                              Transfer (BOOT) basis. The Delhi Noida Toll Bridge is a tolled facility connecting Noida to
                                                                                              Maharani Bagh in South Delhi across the river Yamuna.
                                                                                              Investment Rationale
                                                                                              Assured returns business model
                                                                                              NTBCL is running under the “Build-Own-Operate-Transfer” (BOOT) basis and generally the
                                                                                              users of Delhi Noida bridge, benefit by savings in terms of distance, time, fuel and vehicle
                       Average Daily Revenue & Traffic                                        operating costs.
  Avg. Rev./Day                                                         Avg. Traf./Day
    2200000
                                                                       1934003       111000   A 'Concession Agreement' entered into between NTBCL, Infrastructure Leasing and Financial
                                                       1807138
    1700000
                                        1497128
                                                                            104277
                                                                                     97000
                                                                                              Services Limited(IL&FS, the promoter company) and New Okhla Industrial Development
                                                               99779

    1200000                1079021
                                                                                     83000
                                                                                              Authority (NOIDA), Government of UttarPradesh, has conferred the right to the Company to
                                              84261
              903032
                                                                                              implement the project and recover the project cost, through the levy of fees/ toll revenue, with a
     700000                                                                          69000
                                68652                                                         designated rate of return (20%) over the 30 years concession period commencing from 30
                   60840
     200000                                                                          55000    December 1998 i.e. the date of Certificate of Commencement, or till such time the designated
              2005-06      2006-07        2007-08       2008-09         2009-10
                                                                                              return is recovered, whichever is earlier. The Concession Agreement further provides that in the
                             Average Daily Revenue (Rs./Day)                                  event the project cost with the designated return is not recovered at the end of 30 years, the
                             Average Daily Traffic (Vehicles/Day)                             concession period shall be extended by 2 years at a time until the project cost and the return
                                                                                              thereon is recovered. The rate of return is computed with reference to the project costs, cost of
  Source : Company, A C Choksi Research                                                       major repairs and the shortfall in the recovery of the designated returns in earlier years. NTBCL
                                                                                              shall transfer the Project Assets to the New Okhla Industrial Development Authority in
                                                                                              accordance with the Concession Agreement upon the full recovery of the total cost of project and
                                                                                              the returns thereon.
                                                                                              The independent auditors have determined the amount to be recovered including 20% return as
                                                                                              designated under the Concession Agreement and due to the company till March 31, 2009 as Rs.
                                                                                              1486.34 crores. Also as calculated by the management, the total amount to be recovered up to
                                                                                              March 31, 2010 aggregates to Rs.1728.73 crores subject to audit by the Independent Auditor.
                                                                                              Thus as seen NTBCL has the advantage of assured returns business model for cost recoveries and
                                                                                              designated rate of return.

                                                                                              Likely increase in toll rates
                                                                                              The company has provision for toll hike in the concession agreement. The toll increase is
                                                                                              proposed every year based on Consumer Price Index, but the last hike of 20% in the toll rates was
                                                                                              done by the company in 2008.
                                                                                              For assets maintenance and maintaining the quality of service levels, in February 2011 the
                                                                                              company had increased and proposed the hike as per the formula mentioned in the concession
                                                                                              agreement. However, due to protest and resistance it had to roll back the hike. Hence as required,
                                                                                              for enforcing upon increase in toll rates NTBCL has taken up the issue with authorities. The
                                                                                              company is confident of overcoming the objections and reaching a solution with the concerned
                                                                                              authority for increasing the toll rates. NTBCL is expecting an increase in the range of 10-22% (at
                                                                                              least 10%) in the toll rates by May - June 2011.
                                                                                              Thus with likely increase in toll rates, the company`s revenues and profits will also increase in the
                                                                                              coming periods.




 _____________________________________________________________________________________
 A C Choksi Fundamental Research                           research@acchoksi.com    2
                             A C Choksi
                             Share Brokers Private Limited

Nurturing Wealth

 Financials                                                                 Favorable rising traffic
 Income Statement                                                           Delhi had expanded rapidly beyond its natural boundary and NOIDA was established
 (Rs Crs)                         FY07           FY08     FY09      FY10    which is in close proximity to Delhi and now a fast growing industrial satellite city in Uttar
 Net Sales                        47.11          66.89    79.83     83.90
                                                                            Pradesh state separated from Delhi by the Yamuna river. However earlier transportation
      Net Sales Growth (%)                      41.99%   19.35%    5.10%
 Total Expenditure                12.11          17.10    21.35     22.97   links between Noida and Delhi were inadequate and hence for providing better
 EBITDA                           35.00          49.79    58.48     60.93   transportation services and helping the people of Delhi and Noida in commuting, the
      EBITDA Margin (%)          74.29%         74.44%   73.26%   72.62%    Delhi Noida Toll Bridge was built.
 Depreciation                     7.80            8.64     4.84     5.22
 Interest                         18.07          14.87    14.92     17.18   The bridge has been well accepted and the average daily traffic on the bridge has grown
 Other Income                     2.01            5.50     1.14     1.82    from approximately 17,000 vehicles per day in 2000-2001 to more than 1,04,000 vehicles
 PBT                              11.14          31.78    39.86     40.35   per day in 2009-2010.For Financial year 2012, also the company is expecting at least 5%
 Taxes                            0.08            3.80     6.36     12.90   further growth in traffic.
 Profit Before Minority Interest 11.06           27.98    33.50     27.45
 Miniority Interest                 0               0       0         0     Also in the long run, the traffic is expected to increase further due to implementation of
 Net Profit                       11.06          27.98    33.50     27.45   planned development and on account of revival in the development of recreational,
      Net Profit Growth (%)                    152.98%   19.73%   -18.06%   commercial and residential spaces in the primary areas of NOIDA and Greater NOIDA.
      Net Profit Margin (%)      23.48%         41.83%   41.96%   32.72%
                                                                            The development of the Yamuna Expressway and real estate projects associated with it
 Adj. Net Profit                  9.71           27.35    32.78     26.76
      Adj. Net Profit Growth (%)               181.67%   19.85%   -18.36%
                                                                            will also lead towards increase in the bridge traffic.

 Source: Capitaline, A C Choksi Research                                    Thus with traffic increasing, the company`s revenues and profits will also increase
                                                                            further in the coming periods.
                                                                            Contribution from land development
                                                                             The Concession Agreement also provides for grant of Land Development Rights to the
 Balance Sheet                                                              Company, subject to the discretion of NOIDA, for supporting any shortfall in the
 (Rs Crs)                              FY07      FY08    FY09      FY10     revenues of the Company required to earn the total project cost and assured return of
 Share Capital (FV: Rs 10)            186.20    186.20   186.20   186.20    20% on the project cost over the concession period.
 Shareholder's Funds                  361.66    498.43   390.29   417.74
 Total Debt                           185.99    217.83   198.11   169.00    The Company has in its possession 100 acres of land out of which 34 acres are in Noida
 Current Liabilities and Provisions    12.23     24.29   35.67     44.02    and the balance are in Delhi. The company has been seeking development rights for these
 Deffered Tax Liability                 0.00     0.00    53.21     56.09
                                                                            and we believe that in future upon getting the approvals and the commencement of land
 Miniority Interest                     0.00     0.03     0.00     0.00
 Total Liabilities                    559.88    740.58   677.28   686.85
                                                                            development activities, company will get revenues and profit contribution from land
 Net Fixed Assets                     507.64    554.92   590.59   585.48    development also.
 Capital WIP                           27.65     0.00     0.21     0.00
 Deffered Tax Asset                     0.00     0.00    51.54     48.40    Not impacted by increasing interest rates
 Investments                            8.30     5.46    19.05     22.42    As per recent information available, the balance debt of NTBCL was about Rs 148 crore.
 Loans and Advances                     5.87    177.83   13.80     20.54    As company pays interest at fixed rate on this debt, it does not has any direct impact on
 Inventory                              0.02     0.18     0.24     0.27     its profitability in the current scenario of increasing interest rates in the market.
 Cash & Bank balance                    0.24     2.00     1.00     3.68
 Receivables                            0.21     0.19     0.85     6.06
 Misc Expenditure not W/O               9.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     Concern
 Total Assets                         559.88    740.58   677.28   686.85    NTBCL faces competition from two toll free bridges which cross the Yamuna River
 Source: Capitaline, A C Choksi Research                                    namely, Nizamuddin Bridge and Okhla Bridge.Further in case of increase and availability
                                                                            of Metro Rail services, the people may opt for the same instead of tolled bridge and in
                                                                            turn this may reduce the bridge traffic.




 _____________________________________________________________________________________
 A C Choksi Fundamental Research                           research@acchoksi.com    3
                            A C Choksi
                            Share Brokers Private Limited

Nurturing Wealth

 Financials
  Cash Flow                                                                         Ratios
  (Rs Crs)                          FY07     FY08         FY09       FY10                                                 FY07       FY08        FY09       FY10
  Pre-tax Profit                    11.06   27.98        39.86       40.35
  Depreciation                       7.80    8.64          4.84       5.22          Growth Ratios
  Chg in Working Capital           (10.44) 112.04         (2.64)     (3.31)         Sales Growth (%)                                 41.99%      19.35%      5.10%
  Total Tax Paid                     0.00    0.00         (6.13)     (7.21)         EBITDA Growth (%)                                42.26%      17.45%      4.19%
  Other Operating activities        17.81    9.42        14.02       16.17          Adjusted EPS Growth (%)                         181.67%      19.85%    -18.36%
  CF form Operations (I)            26.23  158.08        49.95       51.22          Profitability Ratios
  Capital Expenditure              (36.69) (135.24)       (3.78)     (0.16)         EBITDA Margin (%)                     74.29%     74.44%      73.26%     72.62%
  Chg in Investments                 1.35    0.75          0.86       1.05          PAT Margin (%)                        23.48%     41.83%      41.96%     32.72%
  Other Investing activities         0.00    0.00          0.00       0.00          RONW (%)                               3.06%      5.61%       8.58%      6.57%
  CF form Investing (II)           (35.34) (134.49)       (2.92)      0.89          ROCE (%)                               7.85%     11.55%      14.25%     16.20%
  Equity Raised/(repaid)            20.37    0.00          0.00       0.00          Per Share Ratios
  Debt Raised/(repaid)            (156.14) (24.67)       (34.44)    (46.06)         Adjusted Earnings Per Share (Rs.)        0.52        1.47       1.76       1.44
  Dividend                           0.00    0.00          0.00       0.00
                                                                                    Cash Per Share (Rs.)                     1.01        1.97       2.06       1.75
  Other financing activities         0.00    0.00          0.00       0.00
                                                                                    Book Value Per Share (Rs.)              19.42       26.77      20.96      22.44
  CF form Financing (III)         (135.77) (24.67)       (34.44)    (46.06)
                                                                                    Valuation Multiples
  Net Change in cash (I+II+III)   (144.88) (1.08)        12.59        6.05
                                                                                    P/E (x)                                 48.23       17.12      14.29      17.50
  Beginning Cash                   153.42    8.54          7.46      20.05
                                                                                    P/BV (x)                                 1.29        0.94       1.20       1.12
  Ending Cash                        8.54    7.46        20.05       26.10
                                                                                    EV/EBITDA (x)                           18.69       13.74      11.38      10.40
 Source: Capitaline, A C Choksi Research
                                                                                    Source : Capitaline, A C Choksi Research




                                                                                                                           Equity Research Team

 Disclaimer
 The information and views presented in this report are prepared by A C Choksi Share Brokers Private Limited.The information contained herein is based on our analysis and up on
 sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any
 loss incurred based upon it. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based
 on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned
 in this report, investors may please note that neither A C Choksi Share Brokers Private Limited nor any person connected with any associated companies of A C Choksi Share
 Brokers Private Limited accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned in this document.The analysts for this report certifiesthat all of the views
 expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be,
 directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

                     Disclosure of Interest
                     Analyst ownership of the stock                                                                                                  NO
                     Broking Relationship with the company covered                                                                                   NO
                     Investment Banking relationship with the company covered                                                                        NO
                     Discretionary Portfolio Management Services                                                                                     NO
 _____________________________________________________________________________________
 A C Choksi Fundamental Research                           research@acchoksi.com    4

				
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