Docstoc

CST-CAHSEE Correlation - Loera

Document Sample
CST-CAHSEE Correlation - Loera Powered By Docstoc
					California Standards Test
and CAHSEE Correlation
Use of Student Data for Targeted
Preemptive Intervention


                 November 1, 2006
         Dr. Janis Fries-Martinez, Principal
         Gerardo Loera, Assistant Principal
              Polytechnic High School
        Los Angeles Unified School District 2
In This Presentation You Will Learn:

   How to accurately identify 10th grade students who
    need intervention for the CAHSEE before they take
    it in the spring

   How to identify a target group of students to
    strategically raise the percentage of students
    scoring Proficient or Above on the CAHSEE in order
    to meet AYP requirements

   How to predict, with significant amount of certainty,
    which 10th grade students will pass and fail the
    CAHSEE on their initial try
No Child Left Behind and State
Accountability Criteria - CAHSEE
                              AYP and API are dependent
                               in large part to CAHSEE
        Graduation             scores
                                  AYP: Annual Measurable
                                   Objectives are measured
                                   mainly by success of 10th
                                   grade students taking the
                                   CAHSEE the 1st time
        CAHSEE

                              Problem: High failure rate
  AYP                API
                               on CAHSEE

                              Problem: Not enough
                               students scoring Proficient
                               or Above on CAHSEE
Guiding Questions

   How do we effectively target students for pre-
    emptive intervention for success on the
    CAHSEE before they initially take it?

   How do we proactively identify students that
    need additional support?

   Do we know which students are likely to pass
    the test or get a proficient score ?
What are Passing and Proficient Scores?

   A passing score on the CAHSEE is:
       350 or greater on the English Language Arts
        portion of the test
                              AND
       350 or greater on the Mathematics portion of the
        test
   A proficient score is:
       380 or greater on the English portion of the test
       380 or greater on the Mathematic portion of the
        test
Some Possible Attributes Contributing To
Success On The CAHSEE?
   Grades/Marks
   Demographics
       Socioeconomic status
       Learning environment
   CELDT Scores
   Language Classification
   Special Education Status
   CST Scores
   Periodic Assessments
   Etc.
Studied CST/CAHSEE Correlation at
Different High Schools
Test Groups:
Poly HS: Class of 2006
Poly HS: Class of 2007
Santee HS: Class of 2007
LAUSD Class of 2008 (37,000+ scores)
LAUSD Class of 2007 (36,000+ scores)
Polytechnic High School Class of 2007
9th Grade ELA CST vs. 10th Grade ELA
CAHSEE – Matched Scores




                   Note: 800+ scores included
          Source: Secondary Student Information System
South LA High School #1 - Class of 2007
 9th Grade ELA CST vs. 10th Grade ELA
CAHSEE – Matched Scores
LAUSD Class of 2008 - 9th Grade ELA CST vs.
10th Grade ELA CAHSEE – Matched Scores
                                LAUSD 9th Grade CST ELA vs. 10th Grade CAHSEE ELA

                       450




                       400
 CAHSEE ELA SS 05-06




                       350




                       300

                                                                                       Y = 189.48 + 0.5512X
                                                                                       R2 = 0.6672


                       250
                          250     300      350           400          450        500           550            600
                                                         CST ELA SS 04-05


                                                 Note: 37,000+ scores included
                                           Source: School Information Branch
LAUSD Class of 2008 - 9th Grade Algebra I CST
vs. 10th Grade Math CAHSEE – Matched Scores

                           LAUSD 9th Grade Algebra I CST vs 10th Grade CAHSEE

                     450
   CAHSEE SS 05-06




                     400


                     350


                     300
                                                                         y = 0.4796x + 219.73
                                                                              R2 = 0.4555
                     250
                        200     250    300     350     400      450      500     550     600
                                             CST Algebra I SS 04-05




                                          Note: 23,282 scores included
                                        Source: School Information Branch
LAUSD Class of 2008 - 9th Grade Geometry CST
vs. 10th Grade Math CAHSEE – Matched Scores
                      LAUSD 9th Grade Geometry CST vs 10th Grade CAHSEE

                     450
 CAHSEE Math 05-06




                     400


                     350


                     300
                                                                     y = 0.4537x + 252.82
                                                                          R2 = 0.602
                     250
                        100      200           300           400           500         600
                                          CST Geometry SS 04-05



                                       Note: 8,410 scores included
                                   Source: School Information Branch
LAUSD Class of 2007 - 9th Grade MATH CST vs.
10th Grade Math CAHSEE – Matched Scores
                                  LAUSD 9th Grade Math CST vs. 10th Grade Math CAHSEE

                          450
   CAHSEE Math SS 04-05




                          400


                          350


                          300
                                                                                y = 0.5189x + 211.05
                                                                                     2
                                                                                    R = 0.4843
                          250
                                100        200             300           400        500           600
                                                          CST Math SS 03-04




                                                 Note: 36,190 scores included
                                            Source: School Information Branch
Math CAHSEE Predictors

Mathematics – Geometry                Mathematics – Algebra I
Model                                 Model
9th Grade CST score of 214 or         9th Grade CST score of 271 or
higher predicts a passing score of    higher on Algebra I CST predicts
350 or higher on the CAHSEE           a passing score of 350 or higher
                                      on the CAHSEE
9th Grade CST score of 280 or
higher predicts Proficient score of   9th Grade CST score of 334 or
380 or higher on the CAHSEE           higher predicts a Proficient score
(AYP)                                 of 380 or higher on the CAHSEE
Summary of Predictors

English Language Arts
Model
Based on LAUSD Class of 2008 (37,000+ scores)

9th Grade English CST score of 292 or higher predicts a passing score
of 350 or higher on the CAHSEE

9th Grade CST score of 346 or higher predicts Proficient score of 380 or
higher on the CAHSEE (To meet AYP)
 ELA – “Reliability” Matrix for predicting
 Passing CAHSEE ELA score – 83.4% accurate
 Data from the LAUSD School
 Information Branch – Class of 2008
                                       Predicted Results
 Model: 292 ELA CST = 350 ELA CAHSEE
                                       Pass        Fail                   Total
 Actual                Pass            24071       2914                    26985
 Results               Fail            3549        8212                    11761


                            24071  8212
                                                 83.4% Accuracy
                     24071  8212  2914  3549
Therefore the model for predicting a passing score or failing score on
the English portion of the CAHSEE based on the 9th grade CST is
correct 83.4% of the time.


This is a Confusion Matrix as described in the work of Kohavi and Provost, 1998
 ELA – “Reliability” Matrix for predicting Passing
 CAHSEE ELA Proficient or Above score – 84.6% accurate

 Data from the LAUSD School
 Information Branch – Class of 2008
                                     Predicted Results
 Model: 346 ELA CST = 380 ELA CAHSEE
                                     Prof/Above Below Prof
 Actual                 Prof/Above 11288         2135
 Results                Below Prof 3846          21477
                        11288  21477
                                               84.6%
                  11288  21477  2135  3846
Therefore this model is correct 84.6% of the time.




This is a Confusion Matrix as described in the work of Kohavi and Provost, 1998
 Algebra I - “Reliability” Matrix for predicting
 Passing CAHSEE Math Passing score – 72.9% accurate
 Data from the LAUSD School
 Information Branch – Class of 2008
                                           Predicted Results
 Model: 271 Alg. I CST = 350 MATH CAHSEE
                                           Pass        Fail
 Actual                 Pass               11231       2930
 Results                Fail               3383        5737
                        11231  5737
                                              72.9%
                  11231  5737  2930  3383
Therefore the model for predicting a passing or failing score on the
Mathematics portion of the CAHSEE based on the 9th grade CST is
correct 72.9% of the time.



This is a Confusion Matrix as described in the work of Kohavi and Provost, 1998
 Algebra I – “Reliability” Matrix for predicting
 Passing CAHSEE Math Proficient or Above score – 85.1%
 accurate
 Data from the LAUSD School
 Information Branch – Class of 2008
                                         Predicted Results
 Model: 334 Alg. I CST = 380 MATH CAHSEE
                                         Prof/Above Below Prof
 Actual                    Prof/Above 2654          2742
 Results                   Below Prof 726           17159
                      2654  17159
                                           85.1%
                2654  17159  2742  726

Therefore the model for predicting a score on the Mathematics portion
of the CAHSEE based on the 9th grade CST is correct 85.1% of the
time.



This is a Confusion Matrix as described in the work of Kohavi and Provost, 1998
 Geometry - “Reliability” Matrix for predicting
 Passing CAHSEE Math Passing score – 88.7% accurate
 Data from the LAUSD School
 Information Branch – Class of 2008
                                          Predicted Results
 Model: 214 Geom. CST = 350 MATH CAHSEE
                                          Pass        Fail
 Actual               Pass                7374        68
 Results              Fail                886         82
                        7374  82
                                         88.7%
                   7374  82  68  886
Therefore the model for predicting a passing score or failing score on
the Mathematics portion of the CAHSEE based on the 9th grade
Geometry CST is correct 88.7% of the time.



This is a Confusion Matrix as described in the work of Kohavi and Provost, 1998
 Geometry – “Reliability” Matrix for predicting
 Passing CAHSEE Math Proficient or Above score 82.1% accurate

 Data from the LAUSD School
 Information Branch – Class of 2008
                                          Predicted Results
 Model: 334 Geom. I CST = 380 MATH CAHSEE
                                          Prof/Above Below Prof
 Actual                  Prof/Above 4539              721
 Results                 Fail             781         2369

                    4539  2369
                                        82.1%
               4539  2369  721  781
Therefore the model for predicting a Proficient or Above score on the
Mathematics portion of the CAHSEE based on the 9th grade Geometry
CST is correct 82.1% of the time.



This is a Confusion Matrix as described in the work of Kohavi and Provost, 1998
 Math (ALL) - “Reliability” Matrix for predicting
 Passing score on CAHSEE Math – 72.7% accurate
 Data from the LAUSD School
 Information Branch – Class of 2007
                                         Predicted Results
 Model: 268 Math CST = 350 MATH CAHSEE
                                         Pass        Fail
 Actual                Pass              19070       3634
 Results               Fail              6237        7249
                         19070  7249
                                               72.7%
                   19070  7249  3634  6237
Therefore the model for predicting a passing score or failing score on
the Mathematics portion of the CAHSEE based on the 9th grade Math
CST is correct 72.7% of the time.



This is a Confusion Matrix as described in the work of Kohavi and Provost, 1998
 Math (ALL) – “Reliability” Matrix for predicting
 Passing CAHSEE Math Proficient or Above score 81.5% accurate

 Data from the LAUSD School
 Information Branch – Class of 2008
                                       Predicted Results
 Model: 326 Math CST = 380 MATH CAHSEE
                                       Prof/Above Below Prof
 Actual                  Prof/Above 5652           5127
 Results                 Below Prof 1564           23974
                           5652  23847
                                                81.5%
                    5652  23847  5127  1565

Therefore the model for predicting a Proficient or Above score on the
Mathematics portion of the CAHSEE based on the 9th grade Math CST
(regardless of which CST test was taken such as Algebra I, Geometry,
General Math etc.) is correct 81.5% of the time.


This is a Confusion Matrix as described in the work of Kohavi and Provost, 1998
Summary of Predictors

English Language Arts                           Mathematics
Model                                           Model
Based on LAUSD Class of 2008 (37,000+ scores)   Based on LAUSD Class of 2007 (36,190 scores)

9th Grade English CST score of                  9th Grade CST score in Math of
292 or higher predicts a passing                268 or higher predicts a passing
score of 350 or higher on the                   score of 350 or higher on the
CAHSEE                                          CAHSEE

9th Grade CST score of 346 or                   9th Grade CST score in Math of
higher predicts Proficient score of             326 or higher predicts a 380 or
380 or higher on the CAHSEE                     higher on the CAHSEE (AYP)
(AYP)
Deciding Which Students To Target –
Possible Action Plans For Applying the ELA Model

   For Program Improvement Schools:
       A Review of the 2006 AYP Progress Report
        needs to be made in order determine which
        subgroups, if any, fell short of meeting the Annual
        Measurable Objectives (AMO)
           Recall that the AMOs are directly associated with the
            percentages of 10th grade students that score Proficient
            or Above on the ELA and Math portions of the CAHSEE
Deciding Which Students To Target –
Possible Action Plans For Applying the ELA Model

   For Program Improvement Schools (cont.):
       Once a subgroup has been identified, an SSIS
        extract can be performed to create a list of
        students needing pre-intervention
           The extract should produce a list of 10th grade students
            that scored less than a 346 on their English 9th Grade
            CST. This list should be sorted in decreasing order by
            their English 9th Grade CST scaled score.
Deciding Which Students To Target –
Possible Action Plans For Applying the Math Model

   For Program Improvement Schools (cont.):
       Once a subgroup has been identified, an SSIS
        extract can be performed to create of list of
        students needing pre-intervention
           The extract should produce a list of 10th grade students
            that scored less than a 326 on their Math 10th Grade
            CST. This list should be sorted in decreasing order by
            their Math 9th Grade CST scaled score.
Deciding Which Students To Target –
Possible Action Plans For Applying the ELA Model

   For Program Improvement Schools (cont.):
       The resulting lists are prioritized lists of students
        that will benefit from pre-intervention and would
        most likely not score a Proficient or Above on the
        CAHSEE without additional support.
Deciding Which Students To Target –
Possible Action Plans For Applying the Predictive Model

   How to identify 10th grade students that will
    probably fail one or both parts of the
    CAHSEE?
       Perform an SSIS extract for 10th Grade students
        that scored less than a 268 on their 9th Grade
        Math CST
       Perform an SSIS extract for 10th grade students
        that scored less than a 292 on their 9th Grade
        English CST
Deciding Which Students To Target –
Technical Assistance
   Cynthia Lim in the LAUSD School Information
    Branch has offered to provide schools with
    technical support on identifying students at-
    risk of not passing the CAHSEE or not getting
    a Proficient or Above score.
    Cynthia.lim@lausd.net
CAHSEE Preemptive Intervention
Case Study – Polytechnic High School 2006

   Master schedule permitted for approximately
    170 seats for CAHSEE preemptive
    intervention in Spring of 2006
   Selected a window of scores predicted to be
    300-370
   Based on student performance this resulted
    in a target range as follows:
    For ELA: CSTs of 212 - 328
    For Math: CSTs of 164 - 308
CAHSEE Preemptive Intervention
Case Study – Polytechnic High School 2006 - Results

   On average, non prepped 10th Graders
    matched the predicted values.
   Math predicted mean score: 347.5
   Math actual mean score:       348.5
   ELA predicted mean score: 353.0
   ELA actual mean score:        352.2
CAHSEE Preemptive Intervention
Case Study – Polytechnic High School 2006 - Results
                         ELA          Math
# In preemptive          130          166
preparation
# Predicted to pass      108          118
# Actual did pass        120          143
Increase                 +12          +25
% Increase               11.1%        +21.2
# Predicted proficient   48           16
# Actual Proficient      61           67
Increase                 +13          +51
% Increase               27.1%        319%
CAHSEE Preemptive Intervention
Case Study – Polytechnic High School 2006 - Results

 CAHSEE Preemptive intervention
  works!
 Preparation was a cost effective
  means of positively impacting the
  study group.

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Categories:
Tags:
Stats:
views:19
posted:10/5/2011
language:English
pages:34