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WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call
January WRAP Modeling Forum Conf Call
Call Information:
Monday, February 14, 2005
1pm PT; 2pm MT; 4pm ET
Conference line: 312-461-9324
Participants access code 504539
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call
Topics
• Update on Emissions
• MM5 Update
• CMAQ Pre02d Performance Evaluation
• Comparison of CMAQ with Alternate Model
• Alaska Modeling
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call
January RMC Emissions Progress (1)
• Completed 36-km Pre02d simulation and
finished QA
• Began write up and graphical summary of 36-
km Pre02d simulation for RMC 2004 Final
Report
• Explored QA issues in the Pre02d data set
– Differences in Pre02d vs Pre02c
– Spatial gradients between the US and Canada
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call
January RMC Emissions Progress (2)
• Continued preparation for 12-km Pre02d
simulation.
– Adapted Windblown Dust and Ammonia emissions
models for the 12-km grid.
– Created 12-km shipping spatial surrogates
– Began 2-month test simulation (January/July)
– Initial QA on 12-km emissions
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call
MM5 Update
• Reran 2002 MM5 run segments for files that become
corrupted
• Final 2002 36/12 km MM5 evaluation to complete in
February
– 2002 36 km MM5 compare WRAP, VISTAS & CENRAP
Runs for subdomains across USA
– Compare 2002 36 km and 12 km WRAP runs
• Put together backup and distribution disks (1.5 Tb of
data on six 300 Gb IDE drives)
– Current Distribution: NPS 1st; OAQPS 2nd
• http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/mm5.shtml
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call
CMAQ Pre02D Evaluation
• Compare version D (Preo2d) emissions to
previous version C results (Pre02c)
• Updated model from CMAQ from version
4.4beta to 4.4 final.
• All plot results can be found in
http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/cmaq.shtml#pre02d
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call
CMAQ Pre02d Performance Plots
• Model performance evaluations
– Model vs. IMPROVE ambient data overlay plots (Spatial
analysis)
– Statistic matrix for overall analysis:
• All site all days scatter plots, and
• Performance goal bugle plots
– Site specific analysis
• Stacked bar plots for major extinction contribution aerosol species
at IMPROVE sites and time series plots
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call
Model outputs vs. IMPROVE ambient overlay plots
• IMPROVE ambient data
(every three days) on
top of everyday model
outputs. (whole year
animation)
• Individual days can be
downloaded from the
website
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call
Model outputs vs. IMPROVE ambient overlay plots
• Next step:
monthly/seasonal
overlay plots
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call
Monthly Model Performance Goal* (PG) and Criteria* (PC)
for IMPROVE
IMPROVE PG&PC
200
SO4
150
NO3
Fractional Bias (%)
100
OC
50
EC
0
(+) Goal
-50
(-) Goal
-100 (+) Criteria
-150 (-) Criteria
-200
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Average Concentration (ug/m3)
* Based on IMPROVE sites in WRAP region only
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call
Monthly Model Performance Goal (PG) and Criteria (PC) for
IMPROVE
IMPROVE PG&PC
200
SOIL
150
CM
Fractional Bias (%)
100
PM25
50
PM10
0
(+) Goal
-50
(-) Goal
-100 (+) Criteria
-150 (-) Criteria
-200
0 6 12 18 24 30
Average Concentration (ug/m3)
* Based on IMPROVE sites in WRAP region only
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call
Some examples of site specific analysis
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call
Annual Extinction Contributions (BEXT) from Aerosol Species
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call
Annual Extinction Contributions (BEXT) from Aerosol Species
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call
Annual Extinction Contributions (BEXT) from Aerosol Species
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call
Annual Extinction Contributions (BEXT) from Aerosol Species
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call
Yellowstone, ’02 IMPROVE & CMAQ, BEXT
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call
Yellowstone, ’02 IMPROVE & CMAQ, BEXT
Allday_onesite
FB (%) FE(%)
SO4 34 47
NO3 49 91
OC 26 45
EC -29 56
SOIL 24 80
CM -82 114
BEXT 95 96
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call
Pre02d vs. Pre02c Results
• Monthly and annual model performance comparisons.
• Site specific BEXT comparison from contributions of
major aerosol components. (Stacked bar plots)
(Focus on IMPROVE sites in WRAP region)
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call
Pre02d vs. Pre02c Monthly and Annual Comparison: SO4
Monthly Annual
FB FE
IMPROVE - SO4 (%) (%)
Pre02d Pre02c
Pre02d 13 49
60
40 Pre02c 3 50
20
FB (%)
0
-20
-40
-60
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call
Pre02d vs. Pre02c Monthly and Annual Comparison: NO3
Monthly Annual
FB FE
IMPROVE - NO3 (%) (%)
Pre02d Pre02c
150 Pre02d 23 113
100 Pre02c -24 115
50
FB (%)
0
-50
-100
-150
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call
Pre02d vs. Pre02c Monthly and Annual Comparison: OC
Monthly Annual
FB FE
IMPROVE - OC (%) (%)
Pre02d Pre02c
Pre02d 21 64
80
70
Pre02c 35 72
60
50
40
FB (%)
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call
Pre02d vs. Pre02c Monthly and Annual Comparison: EC
Monthly Annual
FB FE
IMPROVE - EC (%) (%)
Pre02d Pre02c
Pre02d -14 66
20
10 Pre02c -1 64
0
FB (%)
-10
-20
-30
-40
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call
Pre02d vs. Pre02c Monthly and Annual Comparison: SOIL
Monthly Annual
FB FE
IMPROVE - SOIL (%) (%)
Pre02d Pre02c
Pre02d 24 88
140
120
Pre02c 34 92
100
80
60
FB (%)
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call
Pre02d vs. Pre02c Monthly and Annual Comparison: CM
Monthly Annual
FB FE
IMPROVE - CM (%) (%)
Pre02d Pre02c
Pre02d -97 120
0
-20 Pre02c -85 111
-40
-60
FB (%)
-80
-100
-120
-140
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call
Pre02d vs. Pre02c Monthly and Annual Comparison: PM25
Monthly Annual
FB FE
IMPROVE - PM25 (%) (%)
Pre02d Pre02c
Pre02d 21 61
80
60 Pre02c 17 63
40
FB (%)
20
0
-20
-40
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call
Annual Extinction Contributions (BEXT) Comparison
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call
Annual Extinction Contributions (BEXT) Comparison
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call
Annual Extinction Contributions (BEXT) Comparison
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call
Annual Extinction Contributions (BEXT) Comparison
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call
Summary of CMAQ Pre02d Evaluation
• Small improvements in performance for
sulfate and OC.
• Slightly worse performance for NO3 and EC.
• Next Steps: Complete the 12-km CMAQ
Pre02 Simulation, present results at March
meeting.
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call
Wind Blown Fugitive Dust Update
• Draft Final Report on wind blown dust
model submitted January 28, 2005
“Fugitive Wind Blown Dust Emissions
and Model Performance Evaluation -
- Phase II” (Mansell, Lau, Russell
and Omary, 2005)
– Need comments by February 20 to finalize by
March 1, 2005
• February Work: Revised Model Run
– New 2002 MM5 36/12 km
– Land-Use Specific fugitive dust transport factor
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call
Alternative Model
• CAMx 36 km Feb/Jul 2002
– New 2002 MM5 fields and latest pre02D
remissions
– Compare model performance with CMAQ
• CAMx PSAT PM Source Apporetionment
• Use same sources as AoH CMAQ TSSA and
compare results
• Received pre-merged pre02D emissions
01/13/05
• Goal too complete in February 2005
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call
Alaska Modeling
• Alaska 2002 Annual 45/15 km MM5
simulation completed
• Processing emissions for CALPUFF
modeling
– Point sources for state, mobile and area gridded
onto 5 km area sources for CALPUFF modeling
• Begin CALMET/CALPUFF modeling in Feb
– Source apportionment by major source category
– Evaluation for reasonableness
• April 26-27 meeting in Anchorage
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call
RMC 2005 Work Plan
