02_14_2005_MF_Conf_call_v3

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					WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call




     January WRAP Modeling Forum Conf Call

                                       Call Information:
                                   Monday, February 14, 2005
                                  1pm PT; 2pm MT; 4pm ET
                                  Conference line: 312-461-9324
                                  Participants access code 504539
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call




                                                     Topics

     •     Update on Emissions
     •     MM5 Update
     •     CMAQ Pre02d Performance Evaluation
     •     Comparison of CMAQ with Alternate Model
     •     Alaska Modeling
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call




       January RMC Emissions Progress (1)

 • Completed 36-km Pre02d simulation and
   finished QA
 • Began write up and graphical summary of 36-
   km Pre02d simulation for RMC 2004 Final
   Report
 • Explored QA issues in the Pre02d data set
         – Differences in Pre02d vs Pre02c
         – Spatial gradients between the US and Canada
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call




       January RMC Emissions Progress (2)

 • Continued preparation for 12-km Pre02d
   simulation.
         – Adapted Windblown Dust and Ammonia emissions
           models for the 12-km grid.
         – Created 12-km shipping spatial surrogates
         – Began 2-month test simulation (January/July)
         – Initial QA on 12-km emissions
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call




                                          MM5 Update
 • Reran 2002 MM5 run segments for files that become
   corrupted
 • Final 2002 36/12 km MM5 evaluation to complete in
   February
         – 2002 36 km MM5 compare WRAP, VISTAS & CENRAP
           Runs for subdomains across USA
         – Compare 2002 36 km and 12 km WRAP runs
 • Put together backup and distribution disks (1.5 Tb of
   data on six 300 Gb IDE drives)
         – Current Distribution: NPS 1st; OAQPS 2nd
 • http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/mm5.shtml
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call




                 CMAQ Pre02D Evaluation

     • Compare version D (Preo2d) emissions to
       previous version C results (Pre02c)
     • Updated model from CMAQ from version
       4.4beta to 4.4 final.
     • All plot results can be found in
       http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/cmaq.shtml#pre02d
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call




          CMAQ Pre02d Performance Plots
 • Model performance evaluations
         – Model vs. IMPROVE ambient data overlay plots (Spatial
           analysis)
         – Statistic matrix for overall analysis:
                • All site all days scatter plots, and
                • Performance goal bugle plots
         – Site specific analysis
                • Stacked bar plots for major extinction contribution aerosol species
                  at IMPROVE sites and time series plots
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call




        Model outputs vs. IMPROVE ambient overlay plots

                                                                • IMPROVE ambient data
                                                                  (every three days) on
                                                                  top of everyday model
                                                                  outputs. (whole year
                                                                  animation)
                                                                • Individual days can be
                                                                  downloaded from the
                                                                  website
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call




       Model outputs vs. IMPROVE ambient overlay plots

                                                                • Next step:
                                                                  monthly/seasonal
                                                                  overlay plots
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call



   Monthly Model Performance Goal* (PG) and Criteria* (PC)
                       for IMPROVE

                                                            IMPROVE PG&PC
                                           200
                                                                                           SO4
                                           150
                                                                                           NO3
                     Fractional Bias (%)



                                           100
                                                                                           OC
                                            50
                                                                                           EC
                                             0
                                                                                           (+) Goal
                                            -50
                                                                                           (-) Goal
                                           -100                                            (+) Criteria
                                           -150                                            (-) Criteria
                                           -200
                                                  0     2     4     6     8    10     12

                                                      Average Concentration (ug/m3)



    * Based on IMPROVE sites in WRAP region only
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call



 Monthly Model Performance Goal (PG) and Criteria (PC) for
                       IMPROVE

                                                             IMPROVE PG&PC
                                           200
                                                                                           SOIL
                                           150
                                                                                           CM
                     Fractional Bias (%)



                                           100
                                                                                           PM25
                                            50
                                                                                           PM10
                                             0
                                                                                           (+) Goal
                                            -50
                                                                                           (-) Goal
                                           -100                                            (+) Criteria
                                           -150                                            (-) Criteria
                                           -200
                                                  0      6      12     18     24      30
                                                      Average Concentration (ug/m3)



    * Based on IMPROVE sites in WRAP region only
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call




      Some examples of site specific analysis
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call



           Annual Extinction Contributions (BEXT) from Aerosol Species
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call



           Annual Extinction Contributions (BEXT) from Aerosol Species
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call



           Annual Extinction Contributions (BEXT) from Aerosol Species
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call



           Annual Extinction Contributions (BEXT) from Aerosol Species
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call



         Yellowstone, ’02 IMPROVE & CMAQ, BEXT
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call




         Yellowstone, ’02 IMPROVE & CMAQ, BEXT

                                                                  Allday_onesite

                                                                       FB (%)   FE(%)
                                                                SO4     34       47
                                                                NO3     49       91
                                                                OC      26       45
                                                                 EC     -29      56
                                                                SOIL    24       80
                                                                CM      -82      114
                                                                BEXT    95       96
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call




                   Pre02d vs. Pre02c Results
 • Monthly and annual model performance comparisons.
 • Site specific BEXT comparison from contributions of
   major aerosol components. (Stacked bar plots)

                       (Focus on IMPROVE sites in WRAP region)
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call



        Pre02d vs. Pre02c Monthly and Annual Comparison: SO4

                                                Monthly                                            Annual

                                                                                                        FB    FE
                                          IMPROVE - SO4                                                (%)   (%)
                                          Pre02d           Pre02c
                                                                                              Pre02d   13    49
            60



            40                                                                                Pre02c    3    50

            20
   FB (%)




             0


            -20



            -40


            -60
                  Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May      Jun   Jul    Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call



    Pre02d vs. Pre02c Monthly and Annual Comparison: NO3

                                              Monthly                                                Annual

                                                                                                          FB    FE
                                            IMPROVE - NO3                                                (%)   (%)
                                             Pre02d           Pre02c
             150                                                                                Pre02d   23    113

             100                                                                                Pre02c   -24   115

              50
    FB (%)




               0


              -50


             -100


             -150
                    Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr    May      Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call



             Pre02d vs. Pre02c Monthly and Annual Comparison: OC

                                             Monthly                                               Annual

                                                                                                        FB    FE
                                           IMPROVE - OC                                                (%)   (%)
                                           Pre02d           Pre02c
                                                                                              Pre02d   21    64
             80

             70
                                                                                              Pre02c   35    72
             60

             50

             40
    FB (%)




             30

             20

             10

              0

             -10

             -20
                   Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May      Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call



             Pre02d vs. Pre02c Monthly and Annual Comparison: EC

                                             Monthly                                               Annual

                                                                                                        FB    FE
                                           IMPROVE - EC                                                (%)   (%)
                                           Pre02d           Pre02c
                                                                                              Pre02d   -14   66
             20


             10                                                                               Pre02c   -1    64

              0
    FB (%)




             -10


             -20


             -30


             -40
                   Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May      Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call



   Pre02d vs. Pre02c Monthly and Annual Comparison: SOIL

                                              Monthly                                               Annual

                                                                                                         FB    FE
                                           IMPROVE - SOIL                                               (%)   (%)
                                            Pre02d           Pre02c
                                                                                               Pre02d   24    88
             140

             120
                                                                                               Pre02c   34    92
             100

             80

             60
    FB (%)




             40

             20

              0

             -20

             -40

             -60
                   Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr    May      Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call



            Pre02d vs. Pre02c Monthly and Annual Comparison: CM

                                             Monthly                                               Annual

                                                                                                        FB    FE
                                           IMPROVE - CM                                                (%)   (%)
                                           Pre02d           Pre02c
                                                                                              Pre02d   -97   120
              0


             -20                                                                              Pre02c   -85   111
             -40


             -60
   FB (%)




             -80


            -100


            -120


            -140
                   Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May      Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call



    Pre02d vs. Pre02c Monthly and Annual Comparison: PM25

                                                Monthly                                            Annual

                                                                                                        FB    FE
                                         IMPROVE - PM25                                                (%)   (%)
                                          Pre02d           Pre02c
                                                                                              Pre02d   21    61
           80


           60                                                                                 Pre02c   17    63

           40
  FB (%)




           20


            0


           -20


           -40
                 Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr    May      Jun   Jul    Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call



                   Annual Extinction Contributions (BEXT) Comparison
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call



                   Annual Extinction Contributions (BEXT) Comparison
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call



                   Annual Extinction Contributions (BEXT) Comparison
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call



                   Annual Extinction Contributions (BEXT) Comparison
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call




       Summary of CMAQ Pre02d Evaluation


        • Small improvements in performance for
          sulfate and OC.
        • Slightly worse performance for NO3 and EC.
        • Next Steps: Complete the 12-km CMAQ
          Pre02 Simulation, present results at March
          meeting.
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call


            Wind Blown Fugitive Dust Update
     • Draft Final Report on wind blown dust
       model submitted January 28, 2005
       “Fugitive Wind Blown Dust Emissions
       and Model Performance Evaluation -
       - Phase II” (Mansell, Lau, Russell
       and Omary, 2005)
            – Need comments by February 20 to finalize by
              March 1, 2005
     • February Work: Revised Model Run
            – New 2002 MM5 36/12 km
            – Land-Use Specific fugitive dust transport factor
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call



                                  Alternative Model
 • CAMx 36 km Feb/Jul 2002
         – New 2002 MM5 fields and latest pre02D
           remissions
         – Compare model performance with CMAQ
 • CAMx PSAT PM Source Apporetionment
         • Use same sources as AoH CMAQ TSSA and
           compare results
 • Received pre-merged pre02D emissions
   01/13/05
 • Goal too complete in February 2005
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call




                                    Alaska Modeling
     • Alaska 2002 Annual 45/15 km MM5
       simulation completed
     • Processing emissions for CALPUFF
       modeling
            – Point sources for state, mobile and area gridded
              onto 5 km area sources for CALPUFF modeling
     • Begin CALMET/CALPUFF modeling in Feb
            – Source apportionment by major source category
            – Evaluation for reasonableness
     • April 26-27 meeting in Anchorage
WRAP Regional Modeling Center January 2005 Modeling Form Call




                          RMC 2005 Work Plan

				
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