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					CDAE 170
Solar Building Strategies
Class #1    August 30, 2004




     Gary Flomenhoft
     BSME, MAPP, CEE
     Research Associate
     Gund Institute, SNR
Source: Smil (1991)
Work Done in the U.S. Economy, 1850-1970
   100%


    80%
          Labor
                                 Fuel
    60%


    40%

             Domesticated
    20%        Animals

    0%
      1850      1870   1890   1910      1930   1950
                         Figure 2
            The Composition of U.S. Energy Use
                 Source: (Hall et al., 1986)

100




 75                                  coal
                     wood



 50                                                      oil



                                                        gas

 25      animal
         feed

                                                    electricity


  0
  1800   1825 1850     1875    1900 1925         1950 1975     2000
Hubbert Oil Cycle
World Oil Extraction
World Oil Extraction
World Oil Extraction
World Oil Consumption
                               The Epoch of Fossil Fuel Exploitation
                                                                   (after Hubbert, 1969)


                        300
Trillion kwh per year




                        200




                         100




                              -5     -4         -3      -2         -1         0            +1   +2   +3   +4   +5
                                                             Mayan
                                                             culture     Steam
                        Stonehenge              Parthenon
                                                                         Engine
                           Built                completed
                                                       Pyramids
                                          Iron in      constructed Black
                                          Middle                      Death
                                          East
                                                             Inquisition
                                                                          Magellan's
                                                                        Circumnavigation
                             Two Views

                   •Julian Simon view: technological
                   developments and human ingenuity
                   will yield more resources
                     –“Drowning in oil” The Economist, March
                     6th-12th 1999, pp. 23-25


                   •Colin Campbell, et al. use Hubbert
                   curves to predict the end of oil
S. Gürcan Gülen,     –“The End of Cheap Oil” Scientific
Ph.D.                American, March 1998, pp. 78-83
                     (Campbell and Laherrere)
Real Price of Oil since 1869
                 Ein

Energy          Energy
Source                                 Eout
               Extraction            (surplus)



                                         Eout
Energy Return on Investment (EROI)
=                                        Ei
                                         n
Energy Rate of Return
           US CO2 by Sector (1999)


                              U.S. Territories
                   Commercial       1%
Source:               16%

(US EPA)                                              Industrial
                                                        33%




           Residential
              19%




                                     Transportation
                                          31%
Percentage Sector Contribution to Air Pollution Emissions (1995)




  Source: WRI Estimate Based on Data from "National Air Quality and Emissions Trends
  Report, 1995," 1996, EPA 454/R-96-005.




 AIR POLLUTION FATALITIES NOW EXCEED TRAFFIC FATALITIES BY 3: 1
 http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/Update17.htm
                                The Carbon Question

                               963
                       1000
Metric tons per GWhe




                       800           726


                       600
                                           484


                       400


                       200

                                                   8       7     5      4
                         0
                              Coal   Oil   Gas   Nuclear Wind   PV    Solar
                                                                     Thermal
   CARB DEFINITIONS

Passenger car emissions                HC      CO       NOx
reduction
TLEV- Transitional Low-                50%     NR       NR
Emission Vehicle
LEV- Low-Emission Vehicle              70%     NR       50%
ULEV- Ultra-Low-Emission               85%     50%      50%
Vehicle
SULEV- Super-Ultra-Low-                96%     70%      95%
Emission Vehicle
ZEV-Zero-Emission Vehicles             100% 100% 100%
PZEVs, ATPZEV-Advanced                 96%     70%      95%
technology partial EV (CNG,
                                       Additional Requirements
hybrid-electric, methanol fuel cell)
Atmospheric C02 since 1000
Atmospheric C02 since 1000
             If World consumption = US: Need 4 more planets


Source:
Center for
A New
American
Dream
                Full World or Empty World?



Source:
Ecological
Economics
Principles &
Applications,
Farley and
Daly
                         Greenhouse gas emission
                         14
                                scenarios
                         12                            Stabilization Targets
Annual Emissions (GtC)




                         10

                          8

                          6

                          4                     450 ppmv     550     650     750

                          2

                          0
                           1950   2000   2050   2100       2150    2200    2250
                     How much will the Kyoto Protocol reduce
                                  emissions?
                                              Business-as-usual

                            8                 Kyoto Protocol scenario                    8.0
                                                                                         7.6
   Billion tons of carbon




                            6                              6.4
                                5.8

                            4


                            2


                            0
                            1990      1995             2000                   2005     2010

Data Sources: United States Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration,
International Energy Outlook, 1998 and 1999.
             Cumulative carbon emissions, 1950-
             Ch ina         1996
                         15,715
        German y                             11,651
             Japan                     8,504
Un ited Kingdo m                     7,415
              In dia                4,235
           Canada                   4,054
   So uth Africa                 2,331
           Mexico                2,118
        Australia                 2,080
             Brazil             1,557
    Ko rea, Rep .              1,361
       In don esia             966
  Un ited S tates                                                                              50,795

                       0           10,000           20,000           30,000      40,000   50,000   60,000
                                                             Millio n tons of carbo n

 Data Source: Marland et al, 1999. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.
      Per capita emissions of carbon from
            industrial sources, 1996
          Australia                                                              4.63
Russian Federatio n                                               2.91
          Germany                                                 2.87
   United Kingdo m                                           2.59
             Japan                                           2.54
       Ko rea, Rep.                                        2.46
           Ukraine                                    2.10
      So uth Africa                               1.88
            Mexico                      1.02

             China                    0.76
             Brazil             0.46
         Indonesia           0.33
             India           0.29
     United States                                                                      5.37

                      0           1               2             3           4      5      6
                                                      Thousand tons of carbon
 Data Source: Marland et al, 1999. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.
SINK-CLIMATE CHANGE
 Arctic Ice thinned by 40%: US subs
Climate losses
CLIMATE DAMAGE
CLIMATE DAMAGE
CLIMATE DAMAGE
CLIMATE DAMAGE
          Europe in August 2003

COUNTRY DEATHS DETAILS
               Temperatures soared to 104 degrees Fahrenheit in parts of the
France  14,802 country; temperatures in Paris were the highest since record-
               keeping began in 1873.
                                    High temperatures of up to 105.4 degrees
Germany            7000             Fahrenheit, the hottest since records began in 1901, raised
                                    mortality some 10 percent above average.
                                    High temperatures coupled with elevated ground-level ozone
Spain              4230             concentrations exceeding the European Union's health-risk
                                    threshold.
                                    Temperatures in parts of the country averaged 16 degrees
Italy              4175             Fahrenheit higher than previous year.

                                    The first triple digit (Fahrenheit) temperatures were recorded
UK                 2045             in London.

                                    Temperatures ranged some 14 degrees warmer than normal.
Neth               1400
                                    Temperatures were above 104 degrees Fahrenheit throughout
Portugal           1316             much of the country.

                                    Temperatures exceeded any in the Royal Meteorological
Belgium            150              Society's records dating back to 1833.


TOTAL              35,118
Ocean Conveyor Belt-
(Thermohaline)
Methane-hydrates
                                   Table 3
                        U.S. Energy Stocks and Flows

                            Stock          Flow          Multiple of Current U.S.
           Source         (1018 Btu)      15
                                       (10 Btu per yr)    Annua l Energy Use
Coal                        80                                   849
Oil                         17                                   179
Oil Shale                   22                                   228
Tar Sands                  0.2                                      2
Gas                          7                                    72
Unconven tional Gas          5                                    54
Gas Hydrates              206                                  2,187
Uranium                      3                                    29

Incident Solar Energy                    46,700                  496
Geothermal                               39,685                  421
Wind                                        155                    2
Hydrogen                                     78                 0.83
Biomass                                      47                 0.50
Hydropower                                    2                 0.02
Tides                                         1                 0.01
                    HYDROGEN FUEL CELL OPERATION




SOURCE:
Schatz Energy Lab
Humboldt State U.
SOME SURPRISING FACTS ABOUT HYDROGEN

Q1) IS HYDROGEN A NEW ENERGY SOURCE?
  Where does hydrogen come from?
  Fossil: nat gas, propane, gasoline, methanol
  Renewable: electric wind, solar, etc. electrolyze water
  Methane (CH4), methanol(CH3OH), ammonia(NH3?)
A) HYDROGEN STORES & TRANSPORTS
   ENERGY, NOT A SOURCE.


 Q2) WHICH IS MORE EFFICIENT, FUEL
 CELL OR BATTERIES?
A) BATTERIES
             SOLAR FUEL CELLS ?




SOURCE:
Schatz
Energy Lab
Humboldt
State U.
              BIODIESEL


              Can biodiesel help mitigate “global
              warming”?
Source:       Biodiesel reduces net CO2˜ emissions by 78
1998 US DOE   percent compared to petroleum diesel. This
and US DOA    is due to biodiesel’s closed carbon cycle.




              How much vegetable oil is available?
              US Soybean acreage could fuel 8 million
              cars. (50 gals oil/acre)

				
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