HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market to 2017 by GBIResearch

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									       HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market to 2017 - Superior
   Combination Therapies and Decreasing Mortality to Sustain
         Market Growth Despite Major Patent Expiries
 Reference Code: GBIHC133MR                                                                                                  Publication Date: October 2011

                                     GBI Research estimated the global HIV (Human Immunodeficiency Virus) therapeutics market to
   The market is estimated to
                                     be worth $10.8 billion in 2008, an increase of 13% from 2007. The market is estimated to reach
   reach revenues of $14
                                     revenues of $14 billion by 2017 at a CAGR of 1.5% between 2010 and 2017. The market will see a
   billion by 2017 at a CAGR
                                     steady increase in revenues from 2008 to 2011 when they are expected to be approximately $15
   of 1.5% between 2010
                                     billion.
   and 2017.
                                     The HIV Market will Grow Moderately Driven by Decreased Mortality and Increased Usage
                                     but will be Impacted by Patent Expiries

                                      HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenue ($m), 2002-2017

                                                             16,000
                                                                                                             CAGR (2010-2017): 1.5%

                                                             14,000

                                                                      CAGR (2002-2010): 10.9%
                                                             12,000



                                                             10,000
                                              Revenue ($m)




                                                              8,000



                                                              6,000



                                                              4,000



                                                              2,000



                                                                 0
                                                                                2002                        2010                        2017


                                      Source: GBI Research, company websites



                                    The HIV market is a growing market dominated by the US. The growth rate is likely to decline from
                                    2012 due to the impact of the patent expiries of key drugs. The market is driven by an increase in
                                    the treatment seeking rate as well as the introduction of new drugs such as Atripla as part of
                                    HAART (Highly Active Anti-Retroviral Therapy). The HIV market is currently growing at a slower
                                    rate compared to previous years. This is primarily due to the patent expiries of major drugs such as
                                    Sustiva (efavirenz) and Combivir (lamivudine and zidovudine) in 2012. Other drugs such as Epivir
                                    (lamivudine), Epzicom (abacavir lamivudine), Trizivir (abacavir zidovudine lamivudine), Ziagen
                                    (abacavir), Invirase (saquinavir) and Lexiva (fosamprenavir) went off patent in 2009 and 2010.
                                    However, the impact of these patent expiries will be offset by the increased use of new drugs which
                                    are more effective in tackling disease progression. The sales of new drugs such as Atripla have
                                    increased at a calculated annual growth rate (CAGR) of 136% over the last three years. Other
                                    drugs such as Trizivir (abacavir zidovudine lamivudine), Relenza (zanamivir) and Epivir have
                                    declined at a CAGR of 11%, 21% and 17% respectively. Approximately 1.5 million people infected
                                    with HIV received antiretroviral treatment (ART) in 2008 for an average cost of therapy of $8,300
                                    per year. The number of people receiving treatment for HIV is increasing at the slow rate of 2.2%
                                    per year.



HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market to 2017 - Superior Combination                                                                  GBIHC133MR /Published OCT 2011
Therapies and Decreasing Mortality to Sustain Market Growth
Despite Major Patent Expiries                                                                                                                           Page 1
                                                                                         © GBI Research. This is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
                                     In addition, the average annual cost of therapy for ART is forecast to increase at a higher rate over
                                     the next three to four years with an expected price decline in 2013 due to a series of patent
                                     expiries. However, the market is expected to increase slightly towards the end of 2017 due to a
                                     shift towards newer drugs as well as the impact of inflation. Additionally, late stage pipeline drugs
                                     such as Edurant (rilpivirine) by Tibotec Pharmaceuticals and Vicriviroc (SCH-D) by Schering-
                                     Plough (now Merck) are expected to enter the market during 2010-2017 and will have a positive
                                     impact. As a result, the HIV market value will see a moderate increase during 2010-2017.
                                     Pipeline Includes Drugs with Novel Mechanisms of Action such as Entry Inhibitors and
                                     Integrase Inhibitors

                                     Two new classes of anti-HIV drugs, entry inhibitors and integrase inhibitors are currently generating
                                     considerable excitement. HIV entry inhibitors have been researched extensively as they help to
                                     prevent the entry of HIV into the cell which further prevents infection in the early stages.
                                     Following these is the second generation of non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors
                                     (NNRTIs) that have gained importance as they appear to be effective against HIV strains that are
                                     resistant to currently available NNRTIs.
                                     In terms of the existing drugs under development, vaccines constitute 25% of the total pipeline
                                     followed by fusion inhibitors (22%), immunomodulators (10%), NNRTIs (5%), protease inhibitors
                                     (5%), CD4 modulators (4%) and NRTI (Nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors) (3%) The
                                     ’others’ segment includes mechanisms such as TLR-3 (Toll-like receptor 3) agonists, interleukin
                                     inhibitors and RNase inhibitors among others.

                                      HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Pipeline by Mechanism of Action (%), 2010

                                                                                            CD4 modulator
                                                                                                4%




                                                                                                                Fusion inhibitor
                                                                                                                     22%




                                                                                                                    Immunomodulator
                                                             Others                                                      10%
                                                              64%




                                      Source: GBI Research, company websites, ClinicalTrials.gov




                                     The US Accounts for 70% of the Total HIV Market

                                     The US has the highest prevalence of HIV infection of the geographies studied. It spends almost
                                     twice as much on HIV therapies as the rest of the world with an average annual expenditure of
                                     $11.4 billion. The US is therefore the largest market for HIV therapeutics and accounts for 70% of
                                     the HIV market of the US, the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Japan combined.




HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market to 2017 - Superior Combination                                                       GBIHC133MR /Published OCT 2011
Therapies and Decreasing Mortality to Sustain Market Growth
Despite Major Patent Expiries                                                                                                                 Page 2
                                                                               © GBI Research. This is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
                                     1 Table of Contents
                                     1   Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................ 3
                                         1.1    List of Tables..................................................................................................................... 5
                                         1.2    List of Figures ................................................................................................................... 7
                                     2   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market to 2017 - Introduction ................................................................. 9
                                         2.1    GBI Research Report Guidance ....................................................................................... 9
                                     3   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market to 2017 - Global Overview ....................................................... 10
                                         3.1    Disease Overview ........................................................................................................... 10
                                         3.2    Market Overview ............................................................................................................. 12
                                         3.3    Overview of Recent Research Advancements in HIV/AIDS Therapy.............................. 13
                                     4   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market to 2017 - Market Characterization............................................ 14
                                         4.1    Market Forecasts ............................................................................................................ 14
                                            4.1.1    Branded Versus Generics ....................................................................................... 15
                                         4.2    Annual Cost of Therapy .................................................................................................. 16
                                         4.3    Treatment Usage Patterns .............................................................................................. 17
                                            4.3.1    Diseased Population................................................................................................ 19
                                            4.3.2    Treatment Seeking Population ................................................................................ 21
                                            4.3.3    Diagnosis Population ............................................................................................... 22
                                            4.3.4    Prescription Population............................................................................................ 24
                                         4.4    Geographical Distribution ................................................................................................ 25
                                         4.5    Drivers and Restraints .................................................................................................... 26
                                         4.6    Market Drivers................................................................................................................. 27
                                            4.6.1    Increase in Awareness Levels of Disease Progression will Lead to an Increase in
                                                     Treatment Seeking and Diagnosed Populations...................................................... 27
                                            4.6.2    New Product Launches will Increase Uptake and Drive the Market ........................ 28
                                            4.6.3    Increase in Drug Prices will Drive Growth and Lessen the Impact of Generics ....... 29
                                         4.7    Market Restraints ............................................................................................................ 30
                                            4.7.1    Patent Expirations and the Subsequent Entry of Generics will Negatively Impact the
                                                     Market ..................................................................................................................... 30
                                            4.7.2    Social Stigma Associated with HIV Leads to Low Treatment Seeking Rate ............ 31
                                            4.7.3    Rigorous and Complex Treatment Regimes Result in Poor Patient Compliance
                                                     Leading to a Reduction in Drug Volumes ................................................................ 31
                                     5   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market to 2017 - The US ..................................................................... 32
                                         5.1    Market Forecasts ............................................................................................................ 32
                                         5.2    Annual Cost of Therapy .................................................................................................. 33
                                         5.3    Treatment Usage Patterns .............................................................................................. 34
                                            5.3.1    Diseased Population................................................................................................ 36
                                            5.3.2    Treatment Seeking Population ................................................................................ 37
                                            5.3.3    Diagnosis Population ............................................................................................... 38
                                            5.3.4    Prescription Population............................................................................................ 40
                                     6   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market to 2017- Top Five European Countries .................................... 42
                                         6.1    Market Forecasts ............................................................................................................ 42
                                            6.1.1    Revenue by Country ................................................................................................ 44
                                         6.2    Annual Cost of Therapy .................................................................................................. 45
                                         6.3    Treatment Usage Patterns .............................................................................................. 46
                                            6.3.1    Diseased Population................................................................................................ 48
                                            6.3.2    Treatment Seeking Population ................................................................................ 49
                                            6.3.3    Diagnosis Population ............................................................................................... 50
                                            6.3.4    Prescription Population............................................................................................ 52
                                     7   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market to 2017 - Japan ........................................................................ 53
                                         7.1    Market Forecasts ............................................................................................................ 53
                                         7.2    Annual Cost of Therapy .................................................................................................. 54
                                         7.3    Treatment Usage Patterns .............................................................................................. 55
                                            7.3.1    Diseased Population................................................................................................ 57


HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market to 2017 - Superior Combination                                                                          GBIHC133MR /Published OCT 2011
Therapies and Decreasing Mortality to Sustain Market Growth
Despite Major Patent Expiries                                                                                                                                              Page 3
                                                                                       © GBI Research. This is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
                                           7.3.2    Treatment Seeking Population ................................................................................ 58
                                           7.3.3    Diagnosis Population ............................................................................................... 59
                                           7.3.4    Prescription Population............................................................................................ 60
                                     8 HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market to 2017 - Pipeline Assessment ................................................ 62
                                        8.1    Major Classes of Drugs ................................................................................................... 62
                                           8.1.1    Nucleoside/Nucleotide Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors (NRTIs) ........................... 62
                                           8.1.2    Non-Nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors (NRTIs) ..................................... 62
                                           8.1.3    Protease Inhibitors................................................................................................... 64
                                           8.1.4    Viral Fusion (or Entry) Inhibitors .............................................................................. 64
                                           8.1.5    HIV Integrase Strand Transfer Inhibitors ................................................................. 64
                                           8.1.6    Multi-Class Combination Products........................................................................... 64
                                        8.2    Pipeline Overview ........................................................................................................... 64
                                        8.3    Strategic Pipeline Assessment........................................................................................ 65
                                        8.4    HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Pipeline - Pipeline by Clinical Phases of Development ............. 65
                                           8.4.1    HIV/AIDS Therapeutics - Phase III Clinical Pipeline ................................................ 65
                                           8.4.2    HIV/AIDS Therapeutics - Phase II Clinical Pipeline ................................................. 66
                                           8.4.3    HIV/AIDS Therapeutics - Phase I Clinical Pipeline .................................................. 67
                                           8.4.4    HIV/AIDS - Preclinical Pipeline ................................................................................ 68
                                           8.4.5    HIV/AIDS - Discovery Clinical Pipeline .................................................................... 69
                                        8.5    HIV/AIDS Therapeutics - Pipeline by Mechanism of Action ............................................ 70
                                        8.6    HIV/AIDS Therapeutics - Most Promising Drugs under Clinical Development ................ 71
                                     9 HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market to 2017 - Competitive Landscape ............................................ 72
                                        9.1    Major Company Profiles .................................................................................................. 73
                                           9.1.1    Gilead Sciences, Inc ................................................................................................ 74
                                           9.1.2    GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) ........................................................................................... 76
                                           9.1.3    Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS) .................................................................................... 78
                                           9.1.4    Abbott Laboratories ................................................................................................. 80
                                           9.1.5    Merck ....................................................................................................................... 82
                                           9.1.6    Pfizer ....................................................................................................................... 84
                                     10 HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market to 2017 - Licencing and Partnership Deals .............................. 85
                                        10.1 Global HIV/AIDS Market ................................................................................................. 85
                                           10.1.1 Overview: Deals by Type and Geography ............................................................... 85
                                           10.1.2 Mergers and Acquisitions ........................................................................................ 86
                                           10.1.3 Licensing Agreements ............................................................................................. 87
                                     11 HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market to 2017 - Appendix................................................................... 91
                                        11.1 Market Definitions ........................................................................................................... 91
                                        11.2 Abbreviations .................................................................................................................. 91
                                        11.3 Research Methodology ................................................................................................... 92
                                           11.3.1 Coverage ................................................................................................................. 92
                                           11.3.2 Secondary Research ............................................................................................... 92
                                           11.3.3 Primary Research .................................................................................................... 93
                                           11.3.4 Forecasts ................................................................................................................. 93
                                           11.3.5 Expert Panel Validation ........................................................................................... 95
                                        11.4 Contact Us ...................................................................................................................... 96
                                        11.5 Disclaimer ....................................................................................................................... 96
                                        11.6 Sources ........................................................................................................................... 96




HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market to 2017 - Superior Combination                                                                          GBIHC133MR /Published OCT 2011
Therapies and Decreasing Mortality to Sustain Market Growth
Despite Major Patent Expiries                                                                                                                                              Page 4
                                                                                       © GBI Research. This is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
                                     1.1    List of Tables
                                     Table 1:    HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenue ($m), 2002-2010 .............................. 14
                                     Table 2:    HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenue Forecasts ($m), 2010-2017 ............. 14
                                     Table 3:    HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Global, Annual Cost of Therapy ($), 2002-2010 .......... 16
                                     Table 4:    HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Global, Annual Cost of Therapy ($), 2010-2017 .......... 16
                                     Table 5:    HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Global, Treatment Usage Patterns (‘000), 2002-2010 18
                                     Table 6:    HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Global, Treatment Usage Patterns (‘000), 2010-2017 18
                                     Table 7:    HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Global, Diseased Population (‘000), 2002-2010 .......... 20
                                     Table 8:    HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Global, Diseased Population (‘000), 2010-2017 .......... 20
                                     Table 9:    HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Global, Treatment Seeking Population (‘000), 2002-
                                                 2010 ............................................................................................................................... 21
                                     Table 10:   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Global, Treatment Seeking Population (‘000), 2010-
                                                 2017 ............................................................................................................................... 21
                                     Table 11:   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Global, Diagnosis Population, 2002-2010 ................... 23
                                     Table 12:   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Global, Diagnosis Population, 2010-2017 ................... 23
                                     Table 13:   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Global, Prescription Population, 2002-2010 ................ 24
                                     Table 14:   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Global, Prescription Population, 2010-2017 ................ 25
                                     Table 15:   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Global, Geographical Distribution of Revenues ($m),
                                                 2002-2010 ...................................................................................................................... 25
                                     Table 16:   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Global, Geographical Distribution of Revenues ($m),
                                                 2010-2017 ...................................................................................................................... 26
                                     Table 17:   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Global, Key Drugs Going Off Patent, 2009-2017 ........ 30
                                     Table 18:   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, the US, Revenues ($m), 2002-2010 ............................ 32
                                     Table 19:   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, the US, Revenue ($m), 2010-2017.............................. 32
                                     Table 20:   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, the US, Annual Cost of Therapy ($), 2002-2010 ......... 33
                                     Table 21:   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, the US, Annual Cost of Therapy ($), 2010-2017 ......... 33
                                     Table 22:   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, the US, Treatment Usage Patterns (‘000), 2002-201035
                                     Table 23:   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, US, Treatment Usage Patterns (‘000), 2010-2017 ...... 35
                                     Table 24:   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, the US, Diseased Population (‘000), 2002-2010 ......... 36
                                     Table 25:   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, the US, Diseased Population (‘000), 2010-2017 ......... 37
                                     Table 26:   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, the US, Treatment Seeking Population (‘000), 2002-
                                                 2010 ............................................................................................................................... 38
                                     Table 27:   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, the US, Treatment Seeking Population (‘000), 2010-
                                                 2017 ............................................................................................................................... 38
                                     Table 28:   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, US, Diagnosis Population (‘000), 2002-2010 .............. 39
                                     Table 29:   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, US, Diagnosis Population (‘000), 2010-2017 .............. 39
                                     Table 30:   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, the US, Prescription Population (‘000), 2002-2010 ..... 41
                                     Table 31:   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, the US, Prescription Population (‘000), 2010-2017 ..... 41
                                     Table 32:   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Top Five European Countries, Revenues ($m), 2002-
                                                 2010 ............................................................................................................................... 43
                                     Table 33:   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Top Five European Countries, Revenues ($m), 2010-
                                                 2017 ............................................................................................................................... 43
                                     Table 34:   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Top Five European Countries, Revenue by Country
                                                 ($m), 2002-2010............................................................................................................. 44
                                     Table 35:   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Top Five European Countries, Revenue by Country
                                                 ($m), 2010-2017............................................................................................................. 44
                                     Table 36:   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Top Five European Countries, Annual Cost of Therapy
                                                 ($), 2002-2010................................................................................................................ 45
                                     Table 37:   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Top Five European Countries, Annual Cost of Therapy
                                                 ($), 2010-2017................................................................................................................ 46
                                     Table 38:   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Top Five European Countries, Treatment Usage
                                                 Patterns, 2002-2010....................................................................................................... 47
                                     Table 39:   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Top Five European Countries, Treatment Usage
                                                 Patterns, 2010-2017....................................................................................................... 47
                                     Table 40:   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Top Five European Countries, Diseased Population
                                                 (’000), 2002-2010 ........................................................................................................... 48
                                     Table 41:   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Top Five European Countries, Diseased Population
                                                 (’000), 2010-2017 ........................................................................................................... 48
                                     Table 42:   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Top Five European Countries, Treatment Seeking
                                                 Population (’000), 2002-2010 ......................................................................................... 49
                                     Table 43:   HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Top Five European Countries, Treatment Seeking
                                                 Population (’000), 2010-2017 ......................................................................................... 49

HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market to 2017 - Superior Combination                                                                          GBIHC133MR /Published OCT 2011
Therapies and Decreasing Mortality to Sustain Market Growth
Despite Major Patent Expiries                                                                                                                                                Page 5
                                                                                     © GBI Research. This is a licensed product and is not to be photocopied
                                     Table 44: HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Top Five European Countries, Diagnosis Population
                                               (’000), 2002-2010 ........................................................................................................... 51
                                     Table 45: HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Top Five European Countries, Diagnosis Population
                                               (’000), 2010-2017 ........................................................................................................... 51
                                     Table 46: HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Top Five European Countries, Prescription Population
                                               (’000), 2002-2010 ........................................................................................................... 52
                                     Table 47: HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Top Five European Countries, Prescription Population
                                               (’000), 2010-2017 ........................................................................................................... 52
                                     Table 48: HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Japan, Revenues ($m), 2002-2010 ............................. 54
                                     Table 49: HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Japan, Revenues ($m), 2010-2017 ............................. 54
                                     Table 50: HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Japan, Annual Cost of Therapy ($), 2002-2010 .......... 55
                                     Table 51: HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Japan, Annual Cost of Therapy ($), 2010-2017 .......... 55
                                     Table 52: HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Japan, Treatment Usage Patterns (‘000), 2002-2010 56
                                     Table 53: HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Japan, Treatment Usage Patterns (‘000), 2010-2017 56
                                     Table 54: HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Japan, Diseased Population (’000), 2002-2010 .......... 57
                                     Table 55: HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Japan, Diseased Population (’000), 2010-2017 .......... 57
                                     Table 56: HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Japan, Treatment Seeking Population (’000), 2002-2010
                                                ....................................................................................................................................... 58
                                     Table 57: HIV/AIDS Therapeutics Market, Japan, Treatment Seeking Population (’000), 2010-
                                               2017 ..........................................................
								
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