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					Classification (U)




                  Effects Based
             Planning and Operations
                         &
         Operational Net Assessment (ONA)
                        Information Briefing

                     Joint Faculty Education Conference
                                 20 July 2004
                              Mr. Stephen Runals

     Joint Forces Command, Standing Joint Force Headquarters (Core Element)
                     Standards and Training SJFHQ (CE) – S/T


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                     Strengthening Joint Operations
                         Transformational Capabilities


            “While the nature of warfare and crisis resolution remains the
            unchanged, changes in the security environment, technology
            and threat will cause the conduct of military operations to
            change. … the US must change the way it conducts joint military
            operations – shift to a global perspective of the battlespace, a
            noncontiguous approach to operations and the employment of
            a fully integrated Joint Force.”

                                           JtOps Concept Oct 2003

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                     Implementation Status

         EUCOM
                              • Integrating transformational
         SOUTHCOM            capabilities into HQ’s operations,
                              • SJFHQ Formed
         PACOM

         NORTHCOM

         CENTCOM – Transformational capabilities – CIE,
          EBO, JIACG being integrated into units deploying
          into theater

         Integrated into CAPSTONE and PINNACLE courses

         Services – Adding to Service training

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                     Effects - Based Operations

               Operations that are planned, executed,
               assessed, and adapted based on a holistic
               understanding of the operational environment,
               in order to influence or change system
               behavior or capabilities using the integrated
               application of selected instruments of power to
               achieve directed policy aims.




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                     Effects-Based Operations (EBO)

                      Changing the Way We Think ….

    • How we view the adversary and ourselves and in
      who we include, what we emphasize and how we
      conduct planning and operations.


    • Seeks, within a collaborative environment, to
      synchronize and harmonize the most effective
      combination of military activities to support the full
      range of DIME actions required to achieve our
      objectives.

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                        Requirements for EBO

         • Clearly defined, decisive, and attainable goals towards which all
           military operations are directed - objectives
         • A systems understanding of the adversary and operational
           environment, its major sub systems, their key nodes and
           interrelationships – PMESII
         • An agreed upon range of desired/undesired system (PMESII)
           behaviors or capabilities – Effects
         • Full IA integration in strategic, operational and tactical planning,
           execution and assessment – DIME actions
         • A command climate and organizational capability that allows
           timely, effective exchange of information and ideas – includes a
           fully integrated CIE
         • A HQ’s and component staff organization that understands and
           implements development of effects-based operations and
           assessment
         • Clearly understood Cdr’s intent and guidance within a joint,
           interagency, multinational environment
         • An effective assessment process that forms the basis for
           operational and tactical planning and execution
             – Utilizes a broader range of ISR capabilities
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                              Some Key Terms

     What is an Objective?
     • Clearly defined, decisive, and attainable goals towards which all
       (military) operations are directed
     • Measurable is not included
     • Objectives are not actions
     What is an Effect?
     • The physical and/or behavioral state of a (PMESII) system that
       results from a military or non-military action or set of actions.
     • Effects expresses one idea…simple sentence…no adverbs…unambiguous
              Supports the objective
              Achievable
              Measurable
              Can support multiple Objectives

      Effects should not be descriptions of actions, nor are they targets

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                           Effects - Based Thinking


              Strategic                Operational       Joint Tactical Actions

                                       Ops Environment
    Nat’l &                                                     D                   P
      Int’l
   Objectives
                                                                                    M
                                          EFFECTS                I                  E
                            RCC                                                     S
                           Theater
                          Objectives
                                                                M                   I
                                                                                    I
                                                CCIR            E

                            Getting the “Gears” to Mesh

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                     Understanding the Operational Environment
    Behavior & capability of adversary linked to an integrated PMESII systems
    environment, each with Key Nodes, Links and Vulnerabilities
                                        Information
          Vulnerabilities       Political                Infrastructure
                                            Military


            Links           Social
                                                                               Strengths

      Key Nodes                                              Economic

         Weaknesses
                                                                         Relationships
          Today’s adversary is a dynamic, adaptive foe who operates within a complex,
                           interconnected operational environment.
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                                     O…N…A…

           • Operational
                 – Developed and managed at the RCC
                 – Application at theater strategic, operational, and tactical
                   levels
                 – Operations and Planning centric, not intelligence centric
           • Net
                 – Consideration of all aspects and perspectives funneled
                   down to relevant and significant elements
           • Assessment
                 – Systematic process of analysis, appraisal and review to
                   determine salient information for developing knowledge

      Actionable foundation for knowledge-centric operations
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               Operational Net Assessment (ONA)
              Operationalizes a systems approach to viewing and operating
                           within the “battlespace”. It is …
  • A Process that promotes situational understanding of the adversary and
    ourselves – systems understanding of the operational environment
  • A Operational tool that supports operational and tactical level planning,
    execution, and assessment
  • A Product based on a systems analysis both of potential adversary’s
    PMESII elements and ourselves in the form of a coherent, relevant,
    shared data base
  • A Cross-disciplined team among a wider collaborative group that can
    provide timely systems knowledge to operational level commanders.

  Which:
   Informs decision-makers from strategic to tactical levels
   Concentrates on specific areas within the RCC’s AOR (Focus Areas)
   Prepared pre-crisis, continually updated during crisis response
   Refined thru RCC CONPLAN/OPLAN & JTF ETO development and
    operations
   Requires active interagency and RCC component participation
   Compliments and leverages existing products and processes (eg, JIPB)

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                     Understanding the Ops Environment

         The Challenge: Assisting the conceptual leap from two dimensional
                        awareness to multi-dimensional understanding



                         TROPIC LIGHTNING
                         TROPIC LIGHTNING
                                            Systems Understanding
                              K
                                                             PMESII Environment
             K       K
         K                                                                                 Information

                                                         Vulnerabilities       Political                 Infrastructure
                                                                                             Military


                                                          Links            Social
                                                                                                                               Strengths

                                                       Key Nodes                                            Economic


                                                        Weaknesses
                                                                                                                          Relationships


     Time – Space awareness                                       Multi-dimensional situational
                                                                          understanding
             Today’s adversary is a dynamic, adaptive foe who operates within a
                     complex, interconnected operational environment.
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                     The Operational Environment
    Military operations are part of a larger national / theater / multi-nation
    integrated effort (DIME)

                                                                     IAC
                                        RCC CDR
                                            DIME
                                                                     DIME
                                                       Will to
                                                       “Fight”

                         Capability
                         To “Fight”   JTF HQs
                                        DIME
   NGO/IO/CO                                                       Bi / Multi
      DIE                                                        National Actions
                                                                      DIME

         Will & Capability
         to “Fight”

                                                   Adversary
D – Diplomatic        STRATCOM
I – Information
M – Military            SOCOM
E - Economic
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                            An Effects-based Operations Approach
  “Changing the Way We Think” …                                           Actions

                                                                       Information
                                                                  (“not a war on Islam” message)
        Objective
       Global Terrorist
                                                                         Economic                  Capabilities
         Network (s)
          Destroyed                                                      (cut off funding)         Fully
                                                                                                   Integrated
                                                                        Diplomatic                 DIME
                                                                    (build & sustain coalition)    Actions
                                                                          Military
                                                                    (remove Taliban regime)
   Individual nodes and                                              (destroy terrorist cells)
   vulnerabilities in each of
   the PMESI2 systems
                                              Effects                     Key Nodes & Vulnerabilities

                          What has to happen to Red to achieve Blue objectives
                         (no longer able to operate as an adaptive network with
                                              global reach)


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                         EBO Responsibilities

   Theater Objs            Effects          Tasks to Subordinates                  RCC
                                            Requests to IAC for supporting,       Provides
                                                  supported actions            Tasks, Purpose,
                     Context                                                  associated Effects
                                                                               to Components



               Msn/Endstate       Effects      Tasks to Subordinates             JTF
                                                                               Provides
                                                                        Tasks and Purpose to its
                                                                        Functional Components
                       Context

                                 Msn    Tasks         Actions             Components
                                                                        Execute assigned tasks



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                     Assessing Effects-Based Operations
                                 - An Operating Construct -

                 What do we need to analyze and assess to support
                          Crisis Response Operations?


        Objectives
        What Blue                                                   Actions        Actions
     wants to achieve                                                            required to
   Are we accomplishing
                                                                    Actions        achieve
   the mission?                                                     Actions        Effects
    Campaign Assessment
                                                                    Actions
                                                                Are we doing things right?
                                                                  Measures of Performance
                                                                        (MOP)
                                        Effects
                                                               Are we doing the right things?
                     Capability or behavior that allows Blue
                        to achieve its desired Objectives       Measures of Effectiveness
                                                                       (MOE)
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                                       Campaign Plan – Basis for Assessment

 JTF Blue                 Set Conditions                               Decisive Ops                                       Transition
 Stands Up                        C-DAY               D-DAY(T)

                                                                                                                                  GOR Sovereignty
          3 Jun          4 JUL 9 JUL         23 JUL     27 JUL                   1 AUG                      10 AUG                  of S. Region
Basing               Basing   Basing                                                                             CJTF-S terminates
Green,               Brown,                           Basing
                              Purple                   Gray                                                         Operations
Cairo,               Maroon
Djbouti           Imposition of                                  Maintain Information Superiority
                      Toll
                                               Deploy Decisive Force                                                  Cease CBT
Major Actions




                                                                                                                         Ops
                      Deploy Theater                                        Gain/ Maint Access Dominance
                      Infrastructure                                                                                      Est.
                                                Assume              Neutralize Threats to Transit Passage
                                                 JOA                                                                  Transition C2
                                                               Defeat forces on Islands   Defeat forces on Islands      Element

                                                                                   Neutralize Terrorists

                                                                Neutralize TBM & WME Capability
                                                                                                                              Redeploy
                                                                                     Neutralize Pirates
                                                                    Conduct Escort Ops




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JFCOM/SJFHQ
                                     Effects Assessment …
                        A Key Part of the Cdrs Decision Cycle

     Three Phased Process                                           Assess – ID Effects
                                                                      • What happened? (Analysis)
                 Campaign Assessment
             Are we accomplishing the mission?                        • So What? (Assessment)

                     Effects Assessment                                 Decide – Effects Mgmt
                 Are we doing the right things?                           • What do we need to do?
                      Task Assessment                                       - Continue
                 Are we doing things right?                                 - Reprioritize
                                                                            - Redirect

                           P                                                     Direct
             O             M            D
                                                  Humanitarian Assistance         • What we are going
             B             E            I +       Spt to Civil Institutions         to do
             J             S            M         Law Enforcement

             s             I            E
                                                                          IAC actively involved
                           I                                                  in all Phases

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                     EBO Responsibilities - Assessment

   Theater Objs              Effects         Tasks to Subordinates                       RCC
  Assessment of                               Requests to IAC for supporting,            Provides
  MOEs indicators                                   supported actions                 Tasks, Purpose,
      & Obj                                                                          associated Effects
                                                                                      to Components



              Msn/Endstate         Effects       Tasks to Subordinates                  JTF
  Assessment of
                                                                                       Provides
  MOP indicators
                                                                                Tasks and Purpose to its
         &                                                                      Functional Components
 selected MOE and
   Cdr’s Endstate
                             Msn       Tasks          Actions                    Components
                                                                           Execute assigned tasks

                                Assessment of
                                MOP indicators

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                                    Campaign Plan Adjustment
                                                  Campaign Plan Execution
                                        D-Day            C-+3
                                        Dec 8            Dec 9         Dec 10                 Dec 11 Dec 12
                                                                                              Dec 11 Dec 12       Dec 13   Dec 14


                                                   IO Campaign Execution        –5
                                                                           Phase II x Objectives
   Assess the Campaign Execution
                 PACOM                   Non-Kinetic Operations against Mainland Targets
                                        MFDO A              MFDO B

   to date, validate planned Future                    Phase II Force Flow
                                                                                                              Phase III Force Flow
   Operations based on that
   assessment, and support
                                                  Force Sustainment Fuel / Munitions

                                                          Base Dispersal
                                                                      10                                     11       12    13
                                                                                                                                      What issues do I need to
   development of Cdr’s planning120 MI Sorties
                       Assume JOA

                 JTF 519      ATO BAB
                                             LNO B                  Basea Dispersal                               Strike Mainland       focus on over the
   guidance and direction for Future ATO BAC 80 MI Sorties
                 PACFLT                2 CSG arrives       nd
                                                                                                                                         next 24 - 48 hrs?
   Plans.                       Build Bomber Task Force at XXX, AFB,
                        PACAF
                                                                                   Conduct Global Strike Missions

                       USARRPAC                    -up
                                          JRAC Stood                                     Patriots on XXX / ZZZ

                       MARFORPAC                    Provide JFLCC and LNO Package
                                                                                                                       3
                       SOCPAC                                              CST’s



                                                                                                              ROE                 Force Protection
                                                                                                                                 Pol/Mil Issues
                  Today
                                                 Planning                                                            Log Spt Force Flow
                                                 Horizon                                                                   CCIR/PIR
                                            RCC 72-96 hrs
                                            JTF 48 – 72 hrs                                                 Targeting                Shift Main Effort


                      . . . based on today’s assessment of Effects and
            Objectives, what changes do I need to make to the plan
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                           Some Potential Pitfalls
         • Not understanding the complexity of today’s
           operational environment and adaptive nature of the
           adversary
                      Operational Net Assessment (ONA)
         • Knowledge “stovepipes”
                      CIE & ONA
         • Understanding Cdr’s intent and guidance in a joint,
           interagency, multinational environment
                      Personnel relationships & CIE
         • Lack of IAC integration in operational planning and
           execution
                      Build IAC perspective into planning / operations -
                      JIACG
         • Assigning effects to components rather than task,
           purpose and associated effect
                      Effects achieved thru harmonization of DIME
         • Using effects as actions or targets
                      EBO = Effects Based Targeting
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                     EBO - So What’s New?

     • Same basic             • Systems approach provides a
       Operational              more holistic understanding of the
       Planning Steps           adversary & battlespace and
                                provides the ability to develop a
                                better COA from start



                              • Links physical and virtual
     • Collaborative            Collaboration
       Planning
                              • Collaboration allows more vertical
                                and horizontal integration
                                especially with key leaders – early
                                shared understanding
                              • Joint planning REQUIRES
                                component planning input
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                     EBO - So What’s New?

                             • An expansion of traditional combat
                               assessment. Full spectrum review
  • Assessment                 of PMESII reactions to Blue actions.
                               Seeks to more completely integrate
                               DIME actions and campaign
                               planning and execution.

                             • Orders have more bottom up
                               refinement
                             • More consideration of all DIME
  • WARNO’s,                 • More focused on the objective and
    FRAGO’s,                   outcomes (effects) rather than
                               methods (tasks) – Effects Tasking
    OPORD’s                    Order’s (ETO) is same 5 paragraph
                               format with added IA situation and
                               Objective-Effects-Action linkages
                               clearly presented
                             • Requests for IAC Support
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                      What Does This Mean To You

              • EBO is becoming a “reality” in the field

              • Make the “dynamic, adaptive adversary” a reality in
              training and exercises – operating on a “battlefield” but
              simultaneously working to achieve his objectives thru DIE

              • Require students to think “systemically” about the
              operational environment
                     – think PMESII - provide info for context, discovery and
                     analysis

              • Make “joint, multi national, IAC” a reality.
                     • Let foreign students play role of foreign military, not US
                     officers
                     • Expand and better integrate IAC considerations and agencies
                     into all instruction/training
                     • All training done within a joint context
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                              Web Site of Interest
                            Request a CIE Account @
                            www.sjfhq.jfcom.smil.mil
                               SJFHQ(CE) Website
                          SIPER - https://sps/pc4i-admin
                Doc Library/Documents/SJFHQ-Internal/Implementation Docs
                          Standing Joint Force Headquarters SOP
                                             &
                              SJFHQ Concept for Employment

                                     Point of Contact
                           Mr. Stephen Runals, SJFHQ (CE)-S/T
                                      757-836-9837
                                stephen.runals@jfcom.mil
                           SJFHQPlansDir@sjfhq.jfcom.smil.mil
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                     Back up




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                     Effects Based Campaign Planning
      • What are my Objectives & Desired Ends.
      • What effects, across battlespace PMESII systems, do I
        need to create or support to achieve them.
      • What effects, across battlespace PMESII systems, do I not
        want to create or support as a result of my actions
      • Based on understanding the interrelated PMESII systems,
        what actions should be pursued, or be avoided, to
        achieve my desired effects and minimize undesired
        effects.
      • In what sequence do those actions need to take place to
        be most effective in creating my desired effects.
      • What supporting actions need to take place.
      • How do I assess if my actions are producing the effects
        required to achieve my objectives.
      • What assets (DoD, non DoD) need to be in-place and
        utilized to provide the information needed to support my
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        assessment.                                        Classification (U)
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                                 Unclassified

                     Why a Systems Perspective

         • A “Systems” Construct Provides:
               – A way to gain an understanding of today’s
                 complex, interconnected operational
                 environment
               – A means to identify potential sources from
                 which to gain indicators about and warning of
                 adversary action (planning, preparation and
                 operations) - I & W
               – A “check list” against which to build an
                 assessment plan to assess the potential
                 implications (planning) and impact (execution)
                 of our actions
               – Allows a means to broaden options to achieve
                 objectives and focus limited resources


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                     EBO Responsibilities – Who Does it
        Theater Objs          Effects         Tasks to Subordinates                    RCC
                                                                                       Provides
Assessment of Effects Working Group/J3                                              Tasks, Purpose,
MOEs indicators          &                                                         associated Effects
    & Obj RCC Effects Assessment Cell/J5                                            to Components
                                                     Collaborative Effort

              Msn/Endstate          Effects        Tasks to Subordinates            JTF
                                                                                   Provides
 Assessment of                                                              Tasks and Purpose to its
            Effects Working Group/J3
 MOP indicators                                                             Functional Components
        &                &
          JTF Effects Assessment Cell/J5
selected MOE and
  Cdr’s Endstate
                              Msn          Tasks        Actions               Components
                                                                            Execute assigned tasks

                                                 Combat Assessment/J2 & JIACG
                                  Assessment of           BDA / JIACG
                                  MOP indicators
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                     EBO Responsibilities – So What

  Theater Objs               Effects        Tasks to Subordinates                   RCC
Assessment of Effects Working Group/J3                           Adjustments to Campaign plan
MOEs indicators          &                                       - Branch
    & Obj RCC Effects Assessment Cell/J5                         - Sequels


              Msn/Endstate          Effects        Tasks to Subordinates            JTF
 Assessment of                                                    Adjustments to Future Ops
            Effects Working Group/J3
 MOP indicators                                                   - Execute Branch Sequel plans
        &                &                                        - Plan Sequels
          JTF Effects Assessment Cell/J5
selected MOE and
  Cdr’s Endstate
                              Msn          Tasks       Actions              Components

                              Combat Assessment/J2 & JIACG          Adjustments to Current Ops
                                       JIACG/BDA                    - Execute Branch plans
                                                                    - Initiate Branch planning
                                  Assessment of
                                  MOP indicators


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                      JIPB - ONA Comparison
                     JIPB                                ONA
     Timing: reaches fidelity in CAP     Timing: begins pre-crisis
     Purpose: identify adversary         Purpose: provides actionable
                                           knowledge in the form of a
      COAs/COGs                            dynamic database containing
     Analysis: across all battlespace     pre-analyzed effect-node-action-
      dimensions                           resource linked options
                                          Analysis: SoSA, DIME options,
     Supports: military actions           additional effects, resources
     Produced by: theater JIC and JTF    Supports: enables effects-based
      J2 staff/JISE                        operations
     Products: estimates, templates,     Produced by: SJFHQ
      overlays, matrices, as required     Product: PMESII summaries;
                                           current executive summary;
                                           potential effects list; effect-node-
                                           action-resource options; dynamic
                                           database



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                     ONA in Planning and Execution


                                                    Mission Analysis
                                        JIPB
                                                Baseline
             FRAGOs                   PMESII Effects Strengths/
                               PEL Data / Node ID        Weaknesses                   COA
                             Changes
                                                                 Key Nodes
                                                                                   Development
   Assessment            Campaign                              Possible Actions
                        Assessment
                                                 ONA                ONA-Plan Build
                     Target Deconfliction                           Node Selection       COA
      Targeting                                      Secondary (Intended / Desired)   Refinement
                             MOE/MOP ONA-Plan
                                                            Consequences
                                      (PEL)
                                            Unintended (Undesired)
                     JISR                       Consequences                COA
                                                                            Wargame
                                Orders         COA Analysis/
                                                 Decision



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