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					The ATLSS Vegetative
Succession Model


Scott M. Duke-Sylvester
ATLSS Project : University of Tennessee



Project web-site : www.atlss.org
E-mail : sylv@tiem.utk.edu
               Overview
 Purpose   of the model
 Application to restoration planning
 Model description
 Calibration/validation
 Development/delivery schedule
 Availability
   Purpose of the vegetative
      succession model
 Provide vegetative succession dynamics
 Modeling changes to habitat is important
  for accurate modeling of higher trophic
  levels
 A rigorous succession model would
  include process dynamics : Everglades
  Landscape Model (ELM)
 The ATLSS objective is to interface with
  ELM, but also produce a alternative less
  complex succession model.
      Application to restoration
              planning
 Provides another tool for assessing the
 potential for change due to alternative
 hydrologic scenarios
     Directly through changes in habitat diversity
      and structure
       • Diversity : number of species, evenness
       • Structure : tree islands
     Indirectly by providing a changing habitat for
      other models
              Model features
 Time step : 1 year
 Spatial scale : 500x500 meters
     Possibly finer if computationally feasible
 58 habitat types (FGAP 6.6)
 Stochastic process influenced by local
  environmental processes
             Model response
 Themodel will simulate succession
 dynamics in response to a number of
 environmental processes
     Hydrologic disturbance : hydroperiod
     Nutrient disturbance : phosphorus
     Fire disturbance
 Response     to disturbance is habitat type
 specific
            Model description
 Space is broken into a set of discrete cells
 Cell model
     Starts with a habitat type: H0
     Set of alternative habitat types : H1 .. Hn
     Transition probabilities from H0 to H0 .. Hn : P0
      .. Pn
     P0 .. Pn depend on the current environmental
      conditions
 Cell   model replicated in each discrete cell
                  Cell Model
 Allows for changes in cell habitat type
 Allows for changes in transition
  probabilities in response to changing
  environmental conditions
 Order of events:
     Update current transition probabilities in
      response to environmental change
     Determine the new habitat type for the cell
     Change in cell state

                   H1
            P1
P0     H0     P2   H2

             Pn


                   …
                   Hn
     Change in cell state

                   H1
            P1
P0     H0     P2   H2

             Pn


                   …
                   Hn
     Change in cell state

                   H1
            P1
P0     H0     P2   H2

             Pn


                   …
                   Hn
      Change in transition
         probabilities
                    H1
             P1
 P0     H0     P2   H2

              Pn


                    …
                    Hn
E0
      Change in transition
         probabilities
                       H1
              P1
 P0     H0      P2     H2

                  Pn


                       …
                       Hn
E0           Et
                                       Herbaceous/Forested Ve getation Succession
e   Years Since
        Last
    Hydroperiod
    Disturbance
        3         Dry Prairie [29, 39]    {0.996} Muhly                         {.25} Graminoid Marsh CG [42] 120–270                     Forb
                        30–60             Grass Marsh[45]                              {.7} Cladium [43] 130–330                          Emergent
                                          {0.004} Sparsely                           {.03} Eleocharis [44] 150–300                        Marsh [56]
                                          Wooded Wet                                   {.03} Typha [46] 180–280                           230–360
                                          Prairie CG [52]
                                          60–120
        3             Dry Prairie [29]    {0.996} Muhly                         {.25} Graminoid Marsh CG [42] 120–270                     Forb
                           30–60          Grass Marsh[45]                              {.7} Cladium [43] 130–330                          Emergent
                      Graminoid Dry       {0.004} Sparsely                           {.03} Eleocharis [44] 150–300                        Marsh [56]
                      Prairie EC [39]     Wooded Wet                                   {.03} Typha [46] 180–280                           230–360
                           20–50          Prairie CG [52]
                                          60–120
        3         {.53} Mesic–Hydric      {0.996} Muhly                     {.25} Graminoid Marsh CG [42] 120–270                         Forb
                  Forest [16]             Grass Marsh[45]                          {.7} Cladium [43] 130–330                              Emergent
                  {.22} Slash Pine        {0.004} Sparsely                       {.03} Eleocharis [44] 150–300                            Marsh [56]
                  Woodland [25]
                  {.16} Gallberry /
                                          Wooded Wet                               {.03} Typha [46] 180–280                               230–360
                  Palmetto CG [30]        Prairie CG [52]
                  30–60                   60–120
                  {.08} Hammock [2]
                  10–45
                  {.01} Live Oak [5]
                  0–60
        10                                                                         Decid. Shrub [37] 110–320
                     [16, 25, 30]                              {.91} Swamp Forest CG [17] 120–290               Forb Emergent Marsh [56] 230–360
                        30–60                                  {.09} Brd Lvd/Mixed Evergreen Shrub
                  Trop. Hammock [2]                                        [28] 120–150
                        10–45
                  Live Oak [5] 0–60                                                                                                 Floating Leaved
                                                                                                                                   Veg. [57] 330–360
0       10              [16, 25, 30]        {.77} Decid/Trop. Swamp Forest [3]
                          30–60                           60–180
                                           {.23} Brd Lvd/Mixed Evergreen Shrub
                                                       [28] 120–150
                         [2] 10–45                                Decid. Shrub [37] 110–320
                          [5] 0–60                                          Swamp Forest CG [17] 120–290
                                                                                                               Floating Leaved Veg. [57] 330–360
0       20              [16, 25, 30]      Decid/Trop. Swamp Forest [3]
                           30–60          60–180
                         [2] 10–45                                                  Decid. Shrub [37] 110–320                              Floating
                                                                                                                                            Leaved
                                                                                                                                           Veg. [57]
                                                                                                                                           330–360
                         [5] 0–60                                                Swamp Forest CG [17] 120–290
0       40             {.55} Trop.        {.35} Bay/Gum/Cypress EC [6]                                                                    Floating
                  Hamm ock [2] 10–45      60–160                                                                                          Leaved
                   {.04} Live Oak [5]     {.65} Swamp Forest [3] 60–180                                                                   Veg. [57]
                          0–60                                                                                                            330–360
                   {.4} Xeric–Mesic                                              Decid. Shrub [37] 110–320
                        Live Oak
                      EC [4] 0–30                                           Swamp Forest CG [17] 120–290
                                                                                            Cypress Forest CG [18] 200–340
        50                                Decid/Trop. Swamp Forest [3]                                         No Data
                                          60–180


                  0             30       60         90        120         150         180       210          240         270      300       330
                       Status
 Currently:
     Estimation of model parameters is complete
       • Paul Wetzel
     Conceptual frame work
 End   year 2002:
     Working draft
 August    2003:
     Model finished, results available
     Publications
                 Availability
 Current   plans
     Sun/Solaris environment
     C++/object oriented
     Outputs will be posted at www.atlss.org
     Executables available to collaborating
      agencies
           Collaborators
 PaulWetzel
 Leonard Pearlstine : FGAP
       Contact information
 E-mail: sylv@tiem.utk.edu
 Website : www.atlss.org/~sylv

				
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posted:10/1/2011
language:English
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