A Bibliography of Selected RAND Publications
September 2004 RAND 1700 Main Street SB-2055 Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS Methods, Techniques, and Theory
(1980–2004)
Copies of most publications listed here can be ordered through RAND’s Distribution Services (see the form at the end of the bibliography). Exceptions are commercially published books and the reprints listed at the end of the abstract section. National Book Network (NBN) distributes to the library and trade market most RAND monographs, books, briefings, conference proceedings, and testimony published by RAND since January 1995, as well as selected backlist titles. Call NBN at 800-462-6420 to determine availability.
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CONTENTS
Subject Index ............................ Author Index............................ Abstracts Book................................ Reports.............................. Notes ............................... Reprints ............................. Papers .............................. Drafts............................... RAND Library Reprints ................. 1 3 5 5 7 7 7 9 9
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SUBJECT INDEX
AGILE PRODUCTION Lean and Agile Manufacturing: Compatible Concepts or Competing Visions? DRU-807 AIR FORCE—DATA PROCESSING Toward an Expert Aid for Tactical Air Targeting AIR FORCE—PLANNING Toward an Expert Aid for Tactical Air Targeting N-1645 N-1645 DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS Organizational Decision Support Systems: Centralized Support for Decentralized Organizations P-7749-1 DRINKING OF ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES—SURVEYS A Microcomputer Assessment System (MAS) for Administering Computer-Based Surveys: Preliminary Results from Administration to Clients at an Impaired-Driver Treatment Program RP- 140 EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN Social Experimentation: Some Whys and Hows R-2479
AIR INTERDICTION—MATHEMATICAL MODELS Demonstration of the Subjective Transfer Function Approach Applied to Air Force-Wide Mission Area Analysis N-1831 AIR WARFARE—DATA PROCESSING Subjective Transfer Function Approach to Complex System Analysis R-2719 AIR WARFARE—MATHEMATICAL MODELS Demonstration of the Subjective Transfer Function Approach Applied to Air Force-Wide Mission Area Analysis N-1831 The Subjective Transfer Function Approach for Analyzing Systems P- 6893 ARMY—COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS—EVALUATION Evaluating Alternative Systems Architectures P-8024 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AI for Systems Management P-6573 AUTOMATIC CONTROL—SENSITIVITY A "Propagative" Approach to Sensitivity Analysis BUREAUCRACY Inside Bureaucracy COMMAND AND CONTROL SYSTEMS The Subjective Transfer Function Approach for Analyzing Systems P- 6893 COMPUTER ARCHITECTURE—EVALUATION Evaluating Alternative Systems Architectures P-8024 COMPUTER NETWORKS—SECURITY MEASURES Canada Aims to Close the USA's Electron Backdoor LRP-200204-07 COMPUTER PROGRAMS—RESEARCH A Microcomputer Assessment System (MAS) for Administering Computer-Based Surveys: Preliminary Results from Administration to Clients at an Impaired-Driver Treatment Program RP- 140 COMPUTER SECURITY—CANADA—MANAGEMENT Canada Aims to Close the USA's Electron Backdoor LRP-200204-07 COMPUTER SECURITY—MANAGEMENT Canada Aims to Close the USA's Electron Backdoor LRP-200204-07 COMPUTERS AND CIVILIZATION AI for Systems Management P-6573 DECISION MAKING—MATHEMATICAL MODELS Organizational Decision Support Systems: Centralized Support for Decentralized Organizations P-7749-1 N-3192
FLEXIBLE MANUFACTURING SYSTEMS Lean and Agile Manufacturing: Compatible Concepts or Competing Visions? DRU-807 FLEXIBLE MANUFACTURING SYSTEMS—JAPAN Lean and Agile Manufacturing: Compatible Concepts or Competing Visions? DRU-807 FOREIGN RELATIONS Vicars and Managers: Organizing for National Security GUIDANCE SYSTEMS (FLIGHT) AUTOPILOT: A Distributed Planner for Air Fleet Control P-7501 N-1731
HIGHWAY RESEARCH Facilitating the Implementation of Research Findings: A Summary Report RP- 595 Facilitating the Implementation of Research Findings: Review, Synthesis, Recommendations RP-481 On the Implementation of Research Findings in Surface Transportation RP-432 INFORMATION STORAGE AND RETRIEVAL SYSTEMS Organizational Decision Support Systems: Centralized Support for Decentralized Organizations P-7749-1 INTERACTIVE COMPUTER SYSTEMS—RESEARCH A Microcomputer Assessment System (MAS) for Administering Computer-Based Surveys: Preliminary Results from Administration to Clients at an Impaired-Driver Treatment Program RP- 140 INTERNAL SECURITY Canada Aims to Close the USA's Electron Backdoor LRP-200204-07 INTERNATIONAL MOTOR VEHICLE PROGRAM Lean and Agile Manufacturing: Compatible Concepts or Competing Visions? DRU-807 LARGE SCALE SYSTEMS—SIMULATION METHODS A "Propagative" Approach to Sensitivity Analysis N-3192 LEAN PRODUCTION Lean and Agile Manufacturing: Compatible Concepts or Competing Visions? DRU-807 MILITARY ART AND SCIENCE—COMPUTER SIMULATION Evaluating Alternative Systems Architectures P-8024 NATIONAL SECURITY Canada Aims to Close the USA's Electron Backdoor LRP-200204-07 Vicars and Managers: Organizing for National Security
P-7501
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OPERATIONS RESEARCH Operations Research and Systems Analysis at RAND, 1948–1967 N- 2936 ORGANIZATIONAL EFFECTIVENESS Organizational Decision Support Systems: Centralized Support for Decentralized Organizations P-7749-1 POLICY SCIENCES Onward Through the Fog: Uncertainty and Management Adaptation in Systems Analysis and Design R-3760 POLICY SCIENCES—METHODOLOGY A Framework for Evaluating Success in Systems Analysis P-7454 POLICY SCIENCES—MODELS Six (Or So) Things You Can Do with a Bad Model N-3381
SYSTEM ANALYSIS—EVALUATION Evaluating Alternative Systems Architectures
P-8024 P-7401 N-3381
SYSTEM ANALYSIS—HISTORY The Intellectual Foundations of Systems Analysis SYSTEM ANALYSIS—MODELS Six (Or So) Things You Can Do with a Bad Model
SYSTEM DESIGN Onward Through the Fog: Uncertainty and Management Adaptation in Systems Analysis and Design R-3760 SYSTEM DESIGN—EVALUATION Evaluating Alternative Systems Architectures P-8024
TACTICS—DATA PROCESSING Subjective Transfer Function Approach to Complex System Analysis R-2719 TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER Facilitating the Implementation of Research Findings: A Summary Report RP- 595 Facilitating the Implementation of Research Findings: Review, Synthesis, Recommendations RP-481 On the Implementation of Research Findings in Surface Transportation RP-432 TRANSFER FUNCTIONS—DATA PROCESSING Subjective Transfer Function Approach to Complex System Analysis R-2719 TRANSPORTATION—RESEARCH Facilitating the Implementation of Research Findings: A Summary Report RP- 595 Facilitating the Implementation of Research Findings: Review, Synthesis, Recommendations RP-481 On the Implementation of Research Findings in Surface Transportation RP-432 UNCERTAINTY Onward Through the Fog: Uncertainty and Management Adaptation in Systems Analysis and Design R-3760 WORLD WAR, 1939–1945—MILITARY INTELLIGENCE— ENGLAND The Intellectual Foundations of Systems Analysis P-7401
PRODUCTION MANAGEMENT Lean and Agile Manufacturing: Compatible Concepts or Competing Visions? DRU-807 RAND CORPORATION Operations Research and Systems Analysis at RAND, 1948–1967 N- 2936 SIMULATION METHODS A "Propagative" Approach to Sensitivity Analysis SOCIAL SCIENCES—EXPERIMENTS Social Experimentation: Some Whys and Hows SOCIAL SCIENCES—RESEARCH Social Experimentation: Some Whys and Hows N-3192 R-2479 R-2479
SUBJECTIVE TRANSFER FUNCTION METHOD Demonstration of the Subjective Transfer Function Approach Applied to Air Force-Wide Mission Area Analysis N-1831 Introduction to the Subjective Transfer Function Approach to Analyzing Systems R-3021 Judgment Models for Systems Modeling and Analysis: The Subjective Transfer Function (STF) Method P-7019 The Subjective Transfer Function Approach for Analyzing Systems P- 6893 SURVEYS—METHODOLOGY A Microcomputer Assessment System (MAS) for Administering Computer-Based Surveys: Preliminary Results from Administration to Clients at an Impaired-Driver Treatment Program RP- 140 SYSTEM ANALYSIS A "Propagative" Approach to Sensitivity Analysis N-3192 Facilitating the Implementation of Research Findings: A Summary Report RP- 595 Facilitating the Implementation of Research Findings: Review, Synthesis, Recommendations RP-481 A Framework for Evaluating Success in Systems Analysis P-7454 Introduction to the Subjective Transfer Function Approach to Analyzing Systems R-3021 Judgment Models for Systems Modeling and Analysis: The Subjective Transfer Function (STF) Method P-7019 On the Implementation of Research Findings in Surface Transportation RP-432 Onward Through the Fog: Uncertainty and Management Adaptation in Systems Analysis and Design R-3760 The Subjective Transfer Function Approach for Analyzing Systems P- 6893 SYSTEM ANALYSIS—DATA PROCESSING Subjective Transfer Function Approach to Complex System Analysis R-2719
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AUTHOR INDEX
ARCHIBALD, R. W. R-2479-HEW Social Experimentation: Some Whys and Hows. BELL, R. M. RP-140 A Microcomputer Assessment System (MAS) for Administering Computer-Based Surveys: Preliminary Results from Administration to Clients at an Impaired-Driver Treatment Program. HAYS, R. D. RP-140
A Microcomputer Assessment System (MAS) for Administering Computer-Based Surveys: Preliminary Results from Administration to Clients at an Impaired-Driver Treatment Program.
HEFLEY, C. A. N-3192-DARPA A "Propagative" Approach to Sensitivity Analysis. HILL, L. RP-140 A Microcomputer Assessment System (MAS) for Administering Computer-Based Surveys: Preliminary Results from Administration to Clients at an Impaired-Driver Treatment Program.
BIKSON, T. K. RP-432 On the Implementation of Research Findings in Surface Transportation. RP-481 Facilitating the Implementation of Research Findings: Review, Synthesis, Recommendations. RP-595 Facilitating the Implementation of Research Findings: A Summary Report. CALLERO, M. R-2719-AF R-3021-AF N-1645-ARPA N-1831-AF P-6893 P-7019 Subjective Transfer Function Approach to Complex System Analysis. Introduction to the Subjective Transfer Function Approach to Analyzing Systems. Toward an Expert Aid for Tactical Air Targeting. Demonstration of the Subjective Transfer Function Approach Applied to Air Force-Wide Mission Area Analysis. The Subjective Transfer Function Approach for Analyzing Systems. Judgment Models for Systems Modeling and Analysis: The Subjective Transfer Function (STF) Method.
HODGES, J. S. R-3760-AF/A/OSD Onward Through the Fog: Uncertainty and Management Adaptation in Systems Analysis and Design. N-3381-RC Six (Or So) Things You Can Do with a Bad Model. JAMISON, L. N-1645-ARPA KANTER, A. P-7501 LAW, S. A. RP-432 RP-481 RP-595 Toward an Expert Aid for Tactical Air Targeting. Vicars and Managers: Organizing for National Security. On the Implementation of Research Findings in Surface Transportation. Facilitating the Implementation of Research Findings: Review, Synthesis, Recommendations. Facilitating the Implementation of Research Findings: A Summary Report. A Microcomputer Assessment System (MAS) for Administering Computer-Based Surveys: Preliminary Results from Administration to Clients at an Impaired-Driver Treatment Program.
CAMMARATA, S. N-1731-ARPA AUTOPILOT: A Distributed Planner for Air Fleet Control. DIGBY, J. N-2936-RC DOWNS, A. GILLOGLY, J. RP-140 A Microcomputer Assessment System (MAS) for Administering Computer-Based Surveys: Preliminary Results from Administration to Clients at an Impaired-Driver Treatment Program. GOELLER, B. F. P-7454 A Framework for Evaluating Success in Systems Analysis. GORLIN, D. N-1645-ARPA Toward an Expert Aid for Tactical Air Targeting. Operations Research and Systems Analysis at RAND, 1948–1967.
LEWIS, M. W. RP-140
MARKOVICH, M. RP-432 On the Implementation of Research Findings in Surface Transportation. RP-481 Facilitating the Implementation of Research Findings: Review, Synthesis, Recommendations. RP-595 Facilitating the Implementation of Research Findings: A Summary Report. MCARTHUR, D. N-1731-ARPA AUTOPILOT: A Distributed Planner for Air Fleet Control. MOORE, L. R. P-8024 Evaluating Alternative Systems Architectures.
HARDER, B. T. RP-432 On the Implementation of Research Findings in Surface Transportation. RP-481 Facilitating the Implementation of Research Findings: Review, Synthesis, Recommendations. RP-595 Facilitating the Implementation of Research Findings: A Summary Report. HAYES-ROTH, F. N-1645-ARPA Toward an Expert Aid for Tactical Air Targeting. P-6573 AI for Systems Management.
NEWHOUSE, J. P. R-2479-HEW Social Experimentation: Some Whys and Hows. NICHOLAS, R. J. RP-140 A Microcomputer Assessment System (MAS) for Administering Computer-Based Surveys: Preliminary Results from Administration to Clients at an Impaired-Driver Treatment Program.
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O'BRIEN, K. A. LRP-200204-07 Canada Aims to Close the USA's Electron Backdoor. PERRY, W. L. P-8024 Evaluating Alternative Systems Architectures.
PYLES, R. R-3760-AF/A/OSD Onward Through the Fog: Uncertainty and Management Adaptation in Systems Analysis and Design. ROOS, D. DRU-807-CTI ROSE, B. J. R-3021-AF N-1831-AF Lean and Agile Manufacturing: Compatible Concepts or Competing Visions? Introduction to the Subjective Transfer Function Approach to Analyzing Systems. Demonstration of the Subjective Transfer Function Approach Applied to Air Force-Wide Mission Area Analysis.
ROTHENBERG, J. N-3192-DARPA A "Propagative" Approach to Sensitivity Analysis. SHAPIRO, N. Z. N-3192-DARPA A "Propagative" Approach to Sensitivity Analysis. STOCKFISCH, J. A. P-7401 The Intellectual Foundations of Systems Analysis. THORNDYKE, P. W. N-1731-ARPA AUTOPILOT: A Distributed Planner for Air Fleet Control. VEIT, C. T. R-2719-AF R-3021-AF N-1831-AF P-6893 P-7019 Subjective Transfer Function Approach to Complex System Analysis. Introduction to the Subjective Transfer Function Approach to Analyzing Systems. Demonstration of the Subjective Transfer Function Approach Applied to Air Force-Wide Mission Area Analysis. The Subjective Transfer Function Approach for Analyzing Systems. Judgment Models for Systems Modeling and Analysis: The Subjective Transfer Function (STF) Method.
WALKER, W. E. P-7749-1 Organizational Decision Support Systems: Centralized Support for Decentralized Organizations.
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ABSTRACTS
BOOK
JF1351|b.D67 1994. Inside Bureaucracy. A. Downs. measurement problems found with other procedures commonly used in complex system analyses and their resolutions in the STF approach. In the STF approach, system "experts" are involved in defining the complex system components and constructing their network of cause and effect relationships. Each hypothesized relationship is transformed into an STF that specifies how described components affect judged outcomes. The STFs are tested by using proper experimental designs in generating questionnaires that are given to "experts." Decisions are then made about the appropriateness of the initially hypothesized system components and the form of the STF. Appropriate STFs are used to assess how changes in the system affect system outcomes. R-3021-AF Introduction to the Subjective Transfer Function Approach to Analyzing Systems. C. T. Veit, M. Callero, B. J. Rose. 1984. The subjective transfer function (STF) approach is a method developed to evaluate Air Force command and control systems, and is applicable to other complex systems that are impossible to evaluate through traditional quantitative means. Based on the principles of hypothesis formulation and testing, the method incorporates features of the algebraic modeling approach to measurement where meaningful subjective scale values derive from tested theories. It also provides features for coalescing judgments obtained from different groups of system experts into an overall perceptual system outcome. This report introduces and is a primer of the STF method. It outlines the steps involved in the approach, describes how those steps can be accomplished, and discusses measurement principles and techniques to aid the reader's understanding of the basis for the approach. R-3760-AF/A/OSD Onward Through the Fog: Uncertainty and Management Adaptation in Systems Analysis and Design. J. S. Hodges, R. Pyles. 1990. Policy analysis has always involved great uncertainty. Tools have been available for handling some of that uncertainty, but policy analysis work in many fields has fallen into stereotyped problem formulations and analytical approaches. In particular, treatments of uncertainty are typically incomplete and often conceptually wrong. This report argues that these shortcomings produce pervasive systematic biases in analyses. It describes and discusses the common mode of policy analysis and identifies its two main shortcomings—omission of crucial sources of uncertainty and neglect of systems' ability to respond to the unexpected. It categorizes some varieties of uncertainty
A study of bureaus and bureaucrats based on the premise that, as a species, bureaucratic organizations demonstrate predictable traits and habits. It is assumed that all bureaus have similar structures and survival instincts, and that most bureaucrats are basically rational and act in their own interests. The peculiarities, the conflicting and complex motives of real bureaucrats provide the data for the analysis. The typical life cycle of bureaus as they move from birth through growth to decline and eventual stagnation, rebirth, or death is described. Bureaucrats are classified as five basic types—climbers, conservers, zealots, advocates, and statesmen—and the motivations and normal behavior patterns of each type are described. In contrast to the commonly held notion that a bureaucratic monolith is depriving men of their freedom, the average citizen of today enjoys a far greater range of choice of possible behavior than his predecessors. (Published by Waveland Press, Prospect Heights, IL, 1994. Available only from booksellers or the publisher.)
REPORTS
R-2479-HEW Social Experimentation: Some Whys and Hows. R. W. Archibald, J. P. Newhouse. 1980. Assembles lessons about the technology of social experimentation by drawing on experience at RAND, notably the authors' experience in designing and managing the Health Insurance Study. The report is in three parts. The first part discusses when to conduct a social experiment and when not to. The second part discusses the management of an experiment; it emphasizes the importance of the traditional managerial skills, in spite of the exaggerated mystique that the literature has assigned to the managers of unusual experiments. The third part is a compilation of several practical "tips" for the prospective experimenter. R-2719-AF Subjective Transfer Function Approach to Complex System Analysis. C. T. Veit, M. Callero. 1981. The subjective transfer function (STF) approach, a new procedure for analyzing complex systems that involve numerous cause and effect relationships among the system components, is described. A tactical air command and control and force employment system is used to illustrate
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relevant to policy analysis and presents examples of ways they are commonly represented. Finally, it discusses designing and evaluating systems, and presents a collection of generic strategies for uncertain situations.
N-1831-AF Demonstration of the Subjective Transfer Function Approach Applied to Air Force-Wide Mission Area Analysis. C. T. Veit, M. Callero, B. J. Rose. 1982. This Note describes an application of the subjective transfer function (STF) approach to complex system analysis to an Air Force-Wide Mission Area Analysis (AFWMAA) problem domain. Following a short description of the background that led up to the research and an overview of the STF approach, the authors discuss how the STF approach was applied to the AFWMAA problem domain of immediate targeting for battlefield air interdiction in the tactical command and control mission area. That section includes the hypothesized structure of the problem domain; how the judgment data were gathered; the judgment models entertained as STFs to explain how the components comprising the structure affect judged outcomes; how the data were analyzed to provide information about the appropriateness of the hypothesized structure and the appropriate STFs for functionally linking the components of the structure; and how resulting STFs would be used to assess the capabilities of alternative command and control systems. Finally, the significant features of the STF approach are described and a brief summary is presented. N-2936-RC Operations Research and Systems Analysis at RAND, 1948-1967. J. Digby. 1989. This Note, reprinted from OR/MS Today, Vol. 15, December 1988, reviews the development of operations research and systems analysis at The RAND Corporation for the two decades after its founding in 1948. N-3192-DARPA A "Propagative" Approach to Sensitivity Analysis. J. Rothenberg, N. Z. Shapiro, C. A. Hefley. 1990. Large-scale simulations often involve huge numbers of parameters, making it prohibitive to run more than a tiny fraction of all potentially relevant cases. Sensitivity analysis attempts to show how responsive the results of a simulation are to changes in its parameters: this is an important tool for promoting confidence in a simulation and making its results credible. However, the computational cost of traditional approaches to sensitivity analysis prevents its use in many cases. The authors show that this cost is logically unnecessary and can be largely avoided by propagating and combining sensitivities during a computation, rather than recomputing them. They describe this "propagative" approach to sensitivity analysis and present the algorithm they have implemented to explore its potential. N-3381-RC Six (Or So) Things You Can Do with a Bad Model. J. S. Hodges. 1991.
NOTES
N-1645-ARPA Toward an Expert Aid for Tactical Air Targeting. M. Callero, D. Gorlin, F. Hayes-Roth, L. Jamison. 1981. Describes initial efforts to apply recent advances in knowledge engineering to the domain of tactical air targeting. Tactical targeting is a critical function in war requiring many complex, heuristic, and time-stressed decisions by the targeteer. A knowledge-engineering approach to providing an aid for this process suits the domain. First, knowledge employed by targeteers does not lend itself to straightforward computer implementation. Second, no standard approach exists for targeting. Third, by "engineering" targeteers' knowledge, a basis is provided for experimentation and reformulation of targeting concepts and practices. Finally, the operational environment requires effective human interaction and ready program modification. Knowledge engineering has greater potential to meet these needs than other programming approaches. Our research tests the hypotheses that an expert system would improve tactical targeting and that knowledge engineering can be extended to meet the task. The Note describes the technical and targeting environments, early project experiments, the latest targeting program, TATR, written in ROSIE-I, and our current approach using ROSIE-II. N-1731-ARPA AUTOPILOT: A Distributed Planner for Air Fleet Control. P. W. Thorndyke, D. McArthur, S. Cammarata. 1981. Distributed planning requires both architectures for structuring multiple planners and techniques for planning, communication, and cooperation. The authors describe a family of systems for distributed control of multiple aircraft, in which each aircraft plans its own flight path and avoids collisions with other aircraft. AUTOPILOT, the kernel planner used by each aircraft, comprises several processing "experts" that share a common world model. These experts sense the world, plan and evaluate flight paths, communicate with other aircraft, and control plan execution. Four architectures are discussed for the distribution of airspace management and planning responsibility among the several aircraft occupying the airspace at any point in time. The architectures differ in the extent of cooperation and communication among aircraft.
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Many models used in policy or systems analysis either cannot be validated in any fully adequate sense, such as by comparing them with actual data, or could adequately be validated but have not been. For example, in the area of combat analysis, the central models are arguably almost entirely unvalidated and most will never be susceptible to adequate validation. Nevertheless, such models are often used and can be used fruitfully, even though we have no theory for how to use them or how to interpret and place value on the results they produce. This paper takes a step toward providing such a theory by focusing on the logic that should govern the use of inadequately validated models and the costs and benefits of using them. To this end, it identifies and evaluates six legitimate uses to which such models can be put.
REPRINTS
RP-140 A Microcomputer Assessment System (MAS) for Administering Computer-Based Surveys: Preliminary Results from Administration to Clients at an ImpairedDriver Treatment Program. R. D. Hays, J. Gillogly, L. Hill, M. W. Lewis, R. M. Bell, R. J. Nicholas. 1992. The Microcomputer Assessment System (MAS), written in C language, allows a researcher to design and administer computer-based surveys by manipulating ASCII text files and requires no knowledge of a traditional programming language. The system was designed to provide maximum user flexibility: MAS allows both multiple-choice and open-ended (fill-in) questions and allows control over text color, allowable answers, and summary output. MAS also assesses response latency and includes support for random assignment of different instruments to respondents. MAS runs under MS-DOS 3.0 or higher, requires 640K of RAM, a color screen (EGA or better), and an extended keyboard. The authors summarize preliminary results from an application of MAS to a sample of 121 clients at an impaired-driver treatment program. Originally published Behavior Research Methods, Instruments, and Computers, v. 24, no. 2, 1992. RP-432 On the Implementation of Research Findings in Surface Transportation. T. K. Bikson, S. A. Law, M. Markovich, B. T. Harder. 1995. Originally published in Research Results Digest, no. 207, June 1995. RP-481 Facilitating the Implementation of Research Findings: Review, Synthesis, Recommendations. T. K. Bikson, S. A. Law, M. Markovich, B. T. Harder. 1995.
Recent years have seen an unprecedented commitment to the conduct of research to address difficult surface transportation problems in the United States. Underlying the increased commitment to research is the expectation that the resulting innovative products and processes will pay off by improving the state of surface transportation in the nation. However, we still do not have a clear understanding of the critical factors that facilitate the implication of research results into practice nor of the key barriers that derail the process. This paper describes some of the results from Phase I of a two-phase project sponsored by the National Cooperative Highway Research Program. The paper identifies factors that influence the outcomes of implementation initiatives in surface transportation. It examines the relationships among the boosters and barriers to research implementation and evaluates the factors that seem to exert most influence on implementation. On this basis it recommends ways to improve implementation processes in the industry. Originally published in Proceedings of the 74th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, January 22–28, 1995, Washington, DC. RP-595 Facilitating the Implementation of Research Findings: A Summary Report. T. K. Bikson, S. A. Law, M. Markovich, B. T. Harder. 1997. This report contains the findings of a study that was performed to identify the factors affecting implementation of research results, to delineate strategies that are expected to promote this implementation, and to recommend research to test the more viable strategies for putting transportation research results into practice. The report describes the research and provides recommendations to help state highway and transportation agencies and other highway organizations pursue more effective implementation of research results. Originally published in National Cooperative Highway Research Program, Report 382, 1996.
PAPERS
P-6573 1981. AI for Systems Management. F. Hayes-Roth.
Complex systems require intelligent control strategies, and artificial intelligence (AI) concepts and tools may contribute to the management of such systems. At RAND, we have been developing AI approaches to systems management problems. Our work involves three principal components: (1) a model of the system to be managed; (2) a situation assessment function that employs the model to interpret sensor data; and (3) a planning and control function that employs the model to select desired actions.
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This broad approach generalizes many of the recent advanced AI applications and defines a substantial R&D program. Our current R&D efforts aim at improving the technologies for modeling and simulation, for systematizing and improving situation assessment methods, and for expanding our repertoire of planning strategies and tools. P-6893 The Subjective Transfer Function Approach for Analyzing Systems. C. T. Veit, M. Callero. 1983. The subjective transfer function (STF) approach was developed for analyzing complex systems where many variables either directly or indirectly affect system outcomes. The idea is to test hypotheses about how "experts" perceive their system to function. Hypotheses are algebraic functions (STFs) that specify how factors comprising the system affect judged outcomes. Once the STFs are known for all groups of system experts, they can be used to evaluate how changes in system inputs affect outcomes. The authors detail the steps involved in the STF approach, discuss its measurement basis, and provide illustrations from research in tactical Air Force command and control. P-7019 Judgment Models for Systems Modeling and Analysis: The Subjective Transfer Function (STF) Method. M. Callero, C. T. Veit. 1984. The Subjective Transfer Function (STF) method for modeling systems solves the problem of credibly incorporating human judgments into computer models. By employing hypothesis testing principles, expert judgments are represented in algebraic functions that derive from tested theories. The testability feature stems from the algebraic approach to subjective measurement. The STF method provides additional features necessary for coalescing judgments obtained from different groups of system experts into an overall perceptual outcome. This paper describes the STF method and how STF models are used to analyze command and control systems. P-7401 The Intellectual Foundations of Systems Analysis. J. A. Stockfisch. 1987. This paper was delivered at the Center for Naval Analyses' 1987 Sea Power Forum, December 2–3, 1987, in Washington, D.C. The author traces the origin of systems analysis to the invention of operational analysis by the British during World War II, the American imitation of British effort during the war, and Winston Churchill's use of a small staff that carried out what subsequently came to be called cost-effectiveness analysis. A serious enemy threat and a real war, and a political leader like Churchill who distrusted the "bureaucracy," were the catalysts for these developments. The predominant empirical quality of the wartime operational research is also noted and briefly
compared with the plethora of model-building that constitutes most of contemporary operations research. P-7454 A Framework for Evaluating Success in Systems Analysis. B. F. Goeller. 1988. This paper describes the roles (e.g., policymaker, implementer, operator, lobbyer, adviser on the decision, evaluator, enforcer, person affected by the problem situation) parties at interest may play in a problem situation or in an associated systems analysis (e.g., sponsor, client, user, systems analysis team, peer group, systems analysis research program director, adviser on the analysis, formal reviewer, implementation planner). The author defines the different kinds of success a systems analysis may achieve, the criteria by which various parties evaluate success, and the factors that complicate those evaluations. The kinds of success distinguish (1) how the analysis was performed and presented (analytic success), (2) how the analysis was used in policymaking (utilization success), and (3) what happened to the problem situation as a result (outcome success). A study's success can be evaluated with respect to the decision and problem for which the analysis was commissioned (direct success) or with respect to other decisions and problems (indirect success). The author concludes by suggesting the relative emphasis that analysts should give to seeking the different kinds of success. Frequent examples from three "successful" analyses illustrate the discussion. P-7501 Vicars and Managers: Organizing for National Security. A. Kanter. 1988. Recent legislation requires the President to report annually to the Congress on his "grand strategy" for the United States. This paper was written to inform the debate about how the new President should design his national security structure and process and what the appropriate relationship might be between the Secretary of State and the National Security Adviser. The author is skeptical about the prospects for a "grand strategy," defined as an integrated and comprehensive set of operational goals yielding longterm continuity in U.S. foreign and national security policy. He is more optimistic about the chances for a "grand strategy," defined as a structure and process that would improve the internal consistency and coherence of a given administration's national security policy. The latter perspective could lead to an evaluation of alternative ways in which the President might organize his national security machinery, and of the roles the State Department and the National Security Council staff could play. P-7749-1 Organizational Decision Support Systems: Centralized Support for Decentralized Organizations. W. E. Walker. 1992.
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Organizations are becoming increasingly decentralized in their operations and decisionmaking. Advanced information technologies provide the glue that holds such organizations together and facilitates their operations. Organizational decision support systems (ODSSs) provide mechanisms for assuring that the decisions being made throughout such organizations are consistent with each other and with the overall organizational goals. By means of an ODSS, information and guidance are automatically passed from higher levels to lower levels for use in decisionmaking models.
DRAFTS
DRU-807-CTI Lean and Agile Manufacturing: Compatible Concepts or Competing Visions? D. Roos. 1994.
RAND LIBRARY REPRINTS available from RAND)
(Not
LRP-200204-07 Canada Aims to Close the USA's Electron Backdoor. K. A. O'Brien. The threat of crossborder cyberattacks into the USA is focusing attention on the electronic security of its northern neighbour. Kevin O'Brien looks at a range of new initiatives in Canada. Published in Jane's Intelligence Review, v. 14, no. 4, Apr. 2002, p. 1–2.
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SYSTEMS ANALYSIS: METHODS, TECHNIQUES, AND THEORY (1980–2003) September 2004
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