Offshore Wind: Potential Energy and Economic Benefits to Virginia
VCERC Day at the General Assembly
Richmond, VA 04 February 2009
George Hagerman
VCERC Director of Research Virginia Tech Advanced Research Institute 4300 Wilson Blvd., Suite 750 Arlington, VA 22203 Email: hagerman@vt.edu Phone: 703-387-6030
Presentation Outline
Virginia Coastal Energy Research Consortium
• History, funding, and projects
Offshore wind resources
• Located near coastal metropolitan load centers • Mid-Atlantic has most abundant shallow water resource
Offshore wind technology Mapping offshore winds and other ocean uses to estimate Virginia’s realistic near-term potential Comparing cost of energy between offshore wind and fossil fuel fired power plants Economic development potential
VCERC Created by 2006 General Assembly to Bring Together Universities, State Agencies, and Industry
Virginia Coastal Energy Research Consortium
Mechanical, electrical, materials, civil, and ocean engineering Washington, DC area presence Physical, chemical, & geological ocean sciences Biological ocean sciences Wind energy engineering Renewable energy curriculum development High-tech workforce training Entrepreneurship development
Non-University VCERC Directors
Integration of marine renewables into Virginia Energy Plan
Ensuring compatibility with other marine uses and coastal resources
Identification of manufacturing job creation opportunities and industry benefits of long-term, price-stable energy supply
Identification of waterfront development opportunities
Three Additional Universities and Two New Industry Representatives Added in 2007
Virginia Coastal Energy Research Consortium
Rice Center for Environmental Life Sciences expertise on natural algal blooms Integration of GIS tool into Coastal GEMS Interface with local high-tech industry, including advanced manufacturing, sensors, and control systems
Non-University VCERC Directors
Virginia Coast Reserve Long-Term Ecological Research Project Chemical Engineering Department -- fuels testing and characterization
Research and development of alternative marine biofuels and bioproducts
Virginia Clean Cities and the Hampton Roads Clean Cities Coalition identify regional transportation needs and opportunities for fuels from algae and integration of offshore wind with plug-in hybrid electric vehicles
FY 2007- 08 VCERC Budget Distribution
Project 1 2 3 4 Total
VT-ARI $200K $30K $20K $0K $250K
ODU $150K $64K $0K $511K $725K
ODU (Industry) * $50K $0K $100K $0K $150K
JMU $15K $120K $15K $0K $150K
NSU $0K $0K $75K $0K $75K
VIMS $0K* $50K $0K $100K $150K
Total $425K $244K $195K $636K $1,500K
* VIMS anticipates being able to support Project 1 through its normal Sea Grant activities and with a subset of the GIS data produced under Project 2.
In Oct 2007, higher-education budget cut of 10.6% to VCERC budget amendment was applied uniformly across all projects and universities
* SAIC Maritime Operations is ODU Industry Partner
Three Initial VCERC Projects Focus on Offshore Wind
1. Feasibility-level design and economic assessment for a hypothetical reference baseline offshore wind power project 2. Preliminary mapping of offshore areas suitable for offshore wind power development, with identification of military training areas, shipping lanes, commercial fishing grounds, and marine and avian habitats 3. Evaluation of economic development potential of commercial offshore wind power development and associated workforce training needs, and planning for an ocean test bed 4. Feasibility-level design and economic assessment for an algae-to-biodiesel culture and processing system
Paliria Energy, Inc.
U.S. Offshore Wind Resources
Pacific NW Class 5, 6 & 7 Gulf of Maine Class 6
Great Lakes Class 5 & 6
Mid-Atlantic Class 5 & 6
S California Class 4, 5 & 6 Great Plains Class 3, 4 & 5
Southeast Class 4, 5 & 6
Nearly 80% of U.S. Electricity Demand is in Atlantic, Pacific, Gulf of Mexico or Great Lakes States
Twenty-eight coastal states in contiguous U.S. consume 78% of U.S. electrical energy
Nearly 60% of U.S. Population Lives in Atlantic, Pacific, Gulf of Mexico or Great Lakes States
Twenty-eight coastal states in contiguous U.S. are home to 58% of population
US Offshore Wind Resources Located Near Coastal Metropolitan Load Centers
Virginia is One of Ten States with Shallow-Water Resource Base Comparable to Demand
ME
MI NJ OH VA NC SC DE
MA RI
Mid-Atlantic Offshore Wind Energy Can Meet a Large Portion of the Energy Needs in PJM
20% = 33.1 GW
Developing just 20% of the Mid-Atlantic region’s offshore wind potential in depths < 30 m (as required for economical monopile-based projects using commercially available technology) would result in 33.1 GW of installed offshore wind capacity.
PJM Energizes About One-Fifth of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product
33.1 GW of offshore wind at 40% annual capacity factor would generate 116,000 GWh, supplying about 17% of PJM’s annual energy
Offshore Wind Might Relieve PJM Transmission Constraints from West to East
Fentress is the only high-voltage substation near the Atlantic coast for gigawatt-scale projects between Staten Island, NY and Savannah, GA
Hampton Roads Area has Unique Features Favorable for Offshore Wind Power Development
Class 6 ( ) wind energy resource located within 10-15 miles (16-24 km) of shoreline and close to major, growing centers of power demand Robust coastal transmission grid
115 kV
Minimal probability of major hurricane strike (Categories 3 through 5)
500 kV 230 kV
Pale blue region indicates uncertain wind map accuracy beyond 25 km offshore
Typical Offshore Wind Farm Layout
Monopile Foundations Driven into Seabed and Transition Pieces Grouted on Top
Horns Rev 2-MW Turbines Installed Using Self-Propelled A2 SEA Vessels
North Hoyle 2-MW Turbines Installed Using Towed Seacore Jack-Up Rigs
GIS Analysis and Mapping of Resource
Focus on 50 MMS lease blocks and avoid all excluded areas
MMS lease blocks are 4.8 km x 4.8 km, with each block having 7 x 7 turbines. Turbines spaced 685 m apart (7.6 rotor diameters) Each lease block could contain 49 turbines = 147 MW per block with Vestas model V-90 3 MW = 6.4 MW per km2
GIS layers and calculations by James Madison University
Class 6 Winds are Largely Beyond the Visual Horizon
Photo simulation of Long Island offshore wind project
Beyond the Territorial Sea Limit of 12 n.mi., turbines would be barely visible, and then only on the clearest days. Total available area of Class 6 beyond 12 n.mi. is 575.6 sq.km (142,500 acres); could support 3,680 MW of wind capacity.
12 n.mi.
Class 6 Winds Beyond the Visual Horizon Could Be a Major Electricity Source for Virginia
Total available area of Class 6 beyond 12 n.mi. is 575.6 sq.km (142,500 acres); could support 3,680 MW of wind capacity. With an average annual capacity factor of 40%, this amount of wind generation capacity could generate 12.9 million MWh per year. This is about 1/3 of what coal-fired power plants now generate in VA, or slightly more than half of what nuclear plants now produce.
12 n.mi.
Early, Meaningful Engagement of Local Stakeholders Essential to Success
Cost of Energy Comparison with Fossil Fuel Fired Generation
Cost of Energy Comparison with Fossil Fuel Fired Generation
Fossil fuel generation costs and performance are based on actual or planned generation projects under development by Dominion Virginia Power: a combined-cycle natural gas fired plant in Buckingham County, and a coal-fired plant in Wise County.
Offshore Wind Provides a Long-Term Hedge Against Fuel Price Volatility
Economic Development Potential
Capital cost breakdown for hypothetical offshore wind project
Based on Vestas V90-3MW turbine
30% of capital cost engages local economy to build balance of plant
Estimated maritime industry value of fabrication, installation, and service contracts for notional 3,600 MW of installed offshore wind capacity:
• At $3,600 per installed kW, total capital investment (CI) = $12.96 billion • Assuming an installation rate of 180 MW per year= $648 million per year over 20 years • Local fabrication and installation contracts = $194 million per year until fully built out • Local offshore service contracts (2.5% of CI) = $155 million per year after fully built out • With 25-year project service life, project re-powering ensures indefinite sustainability
Hampton Roads can Become a Hub for Offshore Wind Supply and Support Infrastructure
Massachusetts (Cape Wind) Rhode Island
Supply chain and maritime infrastructure needed for all Atlantic coast projects is a “bottleneck”
New Jersey Delaware
Atlantic Ocean
Interstate Coordinated Planning Needed to Avoid Local Economic Boom and Bust Cycles
Thank You!
Any questions?
Email: hagerman@vt.edu