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					SOCY2100 Migration lectures through 2/6/08

MIGRATION
I. One move is two events: in-migration and out-migration
   A. in-migration = immigration
   B. out-migration = emigration
   C. Place you left is the donor location or origin or source
   D. Place you are going to is the destination or target

II. Definitions related to types of moves and movers
  A. Mobility – spatial movement of people
    1. Includes commuting to work and travel as well as changes of residence
  B. Migration / move – any permanent change of residence
  C. Mover – someone who has changed residence
  D. Migrant – a mover whose move crosses an important boundary
     1. For the U.S. Census Bureau, someone who changes counties
  E. In-migrant / immigrant – someone who has moved to a particular location
  F. Out-migrant / emigrant – someone who has moved from a particular location
  G. Net migration = # in-migrants - # out-migrants
      1. It turns out to be easier to measure net migration than both in-migration and out-
migration
           a. For instance, it is easier to know that a dorm has more students this year than
last year than to know how many new people moved into the dorm and how many people
moved out
  H. Total / gross migration = # in-migrants + # out-migrants
      1. Sociologically interesting for its implications for anomie
  I. International migration – a move from one country to another
  J. Internal migration – a move within a country
     1. Policy makers tend to look at international and internal migration differently
           a. So do migrants
  K. Return migration – a move from what had been a destination back to the original
origin

III. Flows vs stocks
  A. Migration flow refers to in- and out-migrations within a time period, usually a year
  B. Migration stock refers to the total number of people currently in a place who got
there by migrating

   EXAMPLE: flow for a university equals the number of new students plus the
numbers of graduates and students who leave school during a year. Stock refers to the
number of students, however long they have been there

IV. Measures
  A. Crude Rates of Flow

   1. Crude Net-migration Rate

SOCY2100 lecture(s) on migration. 1 of 10
C.B. Backman 2/6/08
                  # in-migrants - # out-migrants
               = ────────────────── * 1000
                       midyear population

   2. Crude In-migration Rate
                          # in-migrants
               = ────────────────── * 1000
                       midyear population

   3. Crude Out-migration Rate
                         # in-migrants
              = ────────────────── * 1000
                      midyear population

   4. Total migration / Gross migration / Migration Turnover Rate

                 # in-migrants + # out-migrants
               = ────────────────── * 1000
                       midyear population

 B. Specific (i.e., not Crude) Rates of Flow

    1. Age-specific Migration Rate (ASMigR)
                           # x year old migrants
            ASMigR(x) = ───────────── * 1000
                              # x year olds

        a. ASMigR(x) can be interpreted as the probability that someone x years old will
migrate during the year

      b. The relationship between age and ASMigR is one of the most fundamental
phenomena in the analysis of migration:

           The probability of migration is highest among young adults. The next
most likely to move are young children. [Why?]

 C. Ratios

    1. Migration Effectiveness Ratio

                     # in-migrants ─ # out-migrants
                   = ────────────────── * 100
                      # in-migrants + # out-migrants

         a. What fraction of the moves end up adding to the population



SOCY2100 lecture(s) on migration. 2 of 10
C.B. Backman 2/6/08
    2. Migration Ratio

                    # in-migrants ─ # out-migrants
                  = ──────────────────
                         # births - # deaths

         a. The size of net migration compared with net natural increase
         b. Migration ratio = 1.0 means net migration = net natural increase
         EX: California's 2001-2002 net migration ratio = 1.04; 2006-7 = -.01;
              what happened?
         EX: West Virginia had the highest 2006-7 at 30.6, mostly because it had a very
low net natural increase (only 102) (why?). SC was second at 3.2, and Nevada third (2.5)

    3. Percent of total growth due to migration

                                # in-migrants ─ # out-migrants
                  = ─────────────────────────────── * 100
                    (# in-migrants + # out-migrants) + (# births - # deaths)

                     net migration
                  = ───────── * 100
                       growth

          a. The size of net migration compared with net natural increase
          EX: Alabama in 2006-7: growth = 37,611 net migration = 22,504
               Pct growth due to migration = 60%
               [Looking back] If AL’s pop = 4.5 million, what’s its growth rate? When
will its population be 9 million (assuming the growth rate doesn’t change)?

     xx. Stock measures
        1. Percent non-citizen
        2. Percent foreign born

Mechanisms


II. Three general approaches to migration
  A. Examination of reasons for migration
  B. Examination of origin-destination patterns
  C. Consideration of whether or not boundaries were crossed, especially boundaries
between countries

III. Reasons for migration
A. Two types of reasons: push factors and pull factors
B. Push factors are factors that make you want to leave your origin
  1. E.g., lack of work, lack of land, famine, persecution of various sorts, crummy

SOCY2100 lecture(s) on migration. 3 of 10
C.B. Backman 2/6/08
climate
C. Pull factors are factors that attract you to your destination
  1. E.g., a job, demand for your skills, good climate, more congenial cultural climate,
available land, being captured and forcibly taken to the destination
D. For most Americans, job-related reasons (push and pull) are the most important
reasons for crossing county lines, especially long moves; housing-related are most
important for shorter moves

E. Push and pull operate at personal (rational choice) and structural levels
   1. Individuals make “rational choices” about moving
   2. Rationality is limited
     a. Thomas theorem is alive and well in migration: people move on the basis of
what they think the destination will be like, not on the basis of what it is actually like
   3. Research shows that often it is actually the family that is making choices
       a. Sometimes they’ll send a daughter instead of a son because even though the son
will make more abroad, daughters tend to send back more

   4. STRUCTURAL
        WAGE GAP GRADIENT
           Mexico-US among the greatest
           Migrants don’t make the average, of course
        POPULATION PRESSURE (MORE WORKERS THAN JOBS)
        AGING WORK FORCE IN TARGET COUNTRIES
        MORE EDUCATED WORK FORCE IN TARGET COUNTRIES
        GLOBALIZATION
        PREEXISTING PATTERNS OF MIGRATION

IV. WHY NOT?
A. Bonds to current location
  1. Control theory links to legitimate society
     a. Attachments
     b. Investments
     c. Involvements
     d. Beliefs
  2. Young adults tend to have weakest bonds

B. Norms
 1. Elder care
 2. Family unity
     a. Nuclear and perhaps even extended family should stay together
 3. Ethnocentrism
 4. On the other hand, norms can be push factors
     a. "Fads" (like semester abroad now in US higher ed, continental tour for high class
Brits in 19th century, time in US for Mexican young men today)
     b. Life cycle norms may include moves
        1) Neolocal residence

SOCY2100 lecture(s) on migration. 4 of 10
C.B. Backman 2/6/08
       2) Going away to college
       3) Military

C. Other obstacles
 1. Physical
    a. Distance & terrain (like oceans, deserts)
       1) Make trip expensive and/or dangerous

 2. Economic
    a. Travel costs
    b. Setup in the new place
    c. Opportunity costs
       1). Those who are going to do well where they are may stay

  3. Legal
     a. Emigration laws - limits on leaving
        1) e.g., USSR and Eastern Europe during Cold War
     b. Immigration laws - limits on entry
        1) Often reflect nativism and xenophobia
           1.1) Nativism - preference for natives, usually combined with dislike of
foreigners
           1.2) Xenophobia - fear of foreigners
  4. Cultural
  5. Personality
     a. Really need to be risk-tolerant
     b. Ambition helps, too



V. Categories of migrants

VI. Origin-Destination Patterns
  A. An important principle: at any time migration tends to be concentrated in a
limited number of origin-destination paths
   1. Migration is not random or haphazard
   2. These paths are called streams
  B. Important historical migrations
   1. Perhaps most important: movement from Europe to North America of 45 million
people from the early 1600s to 1900s
   2. Also of importance for US: movement of 15 million slaves from Africa to the new
world from the 1500s into the 1800s

VII.   International vs internal migration
  A. Governments get a lot more concerned about moves across national boundaries
than about other moves
VI. Migration Data

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C.B. Backman 2/6/08
  A. We have good information about births and deaths, but lousy information about
migration
   1. One reason is that the agency that gathers statistics most directly, the Immigration
and Naturalization Service (INS), is also an enforcement agency, so many immigrants
have good reason to want to avoid them

VII. Important general facts about migration
 A. Those most likely to move are young adults
 B. Men tend to make longer moves than women
 C. International migration is not "free." Countries erect substantial barriers to
migration in attempts to control the composition of their population

VIII. Migration and the US
 A. About 17 percent of Americans move every year
   1. Looked at another way, on average an American moves every 6 years
 B. Peak moving ages are 20-29
 C. Most moves, especially long distance moves, are for job-related reasons
 D. Migration to the US in the early 1900s had greater impact on population than any
migration since
   1. High sex ratio
 E. Current legal migration to the US has a low sex ratio (around 75)
 F. Illegal migration to the US is substantial and predominantly male




SOCY2100 lecture(s) on migration. 6 of 10
C.B. Backman 2/6/08
Consequences of migration

Economic benefits to hosts of migration
[Mostly lifeted from Peter Stalker. 2001. The No-Nonsense Guide to International
Migration. Oxford, UK: New Internationalist Publications. Chapter 4 “The Economic
Benefits of Immigration”]

I. Prima facie immigrants generate growth
   A. Except for Japan, all major expanding economies have lots of immigrants
      [China? Yes, if only foreign professionals/businessmen]
    OBJECTION: maybe the immigrants don’t cause growth; maybe growth causes
immigration

II. Immigrants generate work for other people
   A. Lump of labor fallacy – “a belief that the number of jobs in any country is fixed” p.
64
       1. If this is true, then a job taken by an immigrant means a job lost by an indigene
(i.e., someone already there)
       2. That is, jobs are a zero sum game
       3. The fallacy is, as advertised, fallacious
   B. Example jobs created by immigration
       1. Border Patrol agents
       2. Food producers – more people require more food
       3. Food retailers
          a. Also people who sell paper to retailers for receipts, truckers, etc.

       _____________________________________________________________

                            Lump of Labor Fallacy
       _____________________________________________________________

Lump of Labor Fallacy – there is a fixed number of jobs

Essentially argues that employment is a zero sum game

In fact, local job markets grow and shrink in response to:
          -- the state of the economy
          -- local demand for goods and services
          -- decisions by employers to expand, shrink, or move in or out

Positive net migration can create jobs
     -- More people require more retail sales
     -- Increased demand for governmental services
     -- Willingness to work for less can lead to more being hired
         _____________________________________________________________



SOCY2100 lecture(s) on migration. 7 of 10
C.B. Backman 2/6/08
III. Employers like immigrants better than the alternative
  A. Employers are, of course, very important
  B. They could raise wages or send work elsewhere
      1. A Backman pet peeve: “No one else will do the work”
        a. What they mean is, “No one else will do the work at a wage we are willing to
pay and under working conditions we are willing to provide”
        b. Working conditions are also key
          1. Many of these jobs are 3Ds – difficult, dirty, and dangerous

     1. Why not raise wages?
       a. Partly GP [general principle] – wages are a cost
       b. Partly out of concern that maintaining the hierarchy will require giving
everyone raises

     2. Why not send elsewhere
       a. Obviously some is sent elsewhere
       b. Employer might not want to relocate him- or herself
       c. Some of the work (cleaning, repairs, harvesting) is difficult to relocate

IV. Types of jobs
A. High demand at the top and bottom of the hierarchy
B. Professionals (the top)
    1. Many LDCs [less developed countries] don’t have enough local talent
         a. E.g., small African countries
         b. Sometimes foreign “assistance” comes with the requirement that folks from
    the assisting country be in charge of the work and/or the “donated” equipment
    2. Many MDCs [more developed countries] have needs
         a. In rapidly growing segments like IT
         b. In parts of the country considered locally undesirable
              (1) Rural areas
              (2) Central cities

C. 3-D jobs (the bottom)
    1. 3-Ds: dirty, dangerous, and difficult
    2. Increased education, lowered birth rates have reduced the usual pool [less
educated and younger workers]
    3. The natives are familiar and are likely to feel any cultural stigmas associated with
these jobs
    4. Construction (throughout the world)
    5. Dual labor market theory
         OVERHEAD
                              Dual Labor Market Theory
       _____________________________________________________________

There are two sectors in the labor market: the primary and the secondary

SOCY2100 lecture(s) on migration. 8 of 10
C.B. Backman 2/6/08
Primary labor market – jobs are relatively safe, secure, and reasonably paid,
with benefits

Secondary labor market – jobs tend to be less secure, low paid, and without
benefits. Often “dirty, difficult, and dangerous” (3-d jobs)

Some social scientists identify a third sector, the underground labor market –
largely off the books, these jobs evade all legal protections

V. Managing peaks and troughs
A. Lots of peaks and troughs
    1. Agriculture
         a. e.g., old travels of migrant workers
    2. Construction – western New York two seasons: winter and construction
    3. Boom and bust economic cycles
B. How to handle trough
    1. Not renew contracts
    2. Lay off
         a. Think dual economy
C. How to handle peaks
    1. Turn on the spigot
    2. Reduce immigration enforcement
    3. Some countries good at it (Canada, Germany, Singapore)

VI. Allow better use of native workers
A. Freeing workers for higher paid work
    1. Especially child care workers

VII. Do immigrants depress wages
A. (Not quite an answer) They don’t seem to affect unemployment
     1. cf. lump of labor
B. In general there seems to be little effect
     1. Those most hurt are the previous batch of immigrants

VIII. Do immigrants use more welfare?
A. In the short term, probably
     1. Depends in part on how you count education
     2. They’re younger, poorer, more uninsured, and they often have children
          a. Young adults in general make less money and are more likely to have
children; on the other hand, they are likely to be healthier
B. Illegals tend not to apply for welfare
     1. But they pay taxes (if their employer is scrupulous)

C. In the long run they add to the national economy



SOCY2100 lecture(s) on migration. 9 of 10
C.B. Backman 2/6/08
IX. Immigrants, the age structure, and the economy
A. Immigrants are filling the age structure for MDCs
     1. Especially important for welfare state countries of Europe
         a. Low birth rates, high services to the elderly will require enormous
contributions from working age folks; immigrants are adding to the working age
population, which in the future will be critical to maintaining the welfare state




SOCY2100 lecture(s) on migration. 10 of 10
C.B. Backman 2/6/08

				
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